Yes, fair enough. I agree that it was a politically dumb idea to hold the referendum in the first place.

But after the vote, Cameron’s move was perhaps the best available way to contain or limit the damage.

Trump was at 46% in last poll, now at 39%

I think this is right. The ingredients are there for someone like Trump winning the presidential election but he may be the wrong candidate.

The primary is on August 30, 2016

For what it’s worth, 538 also said the Cleveland Cavaliers had no chance…

This is a great point. If Clinton wins big, she would likely pull many Senate seats with her.

Thanks so much for reading!

And I’m thankful to have such great readers!

None taken… Thanks for reading!

I had the story up within 25 minutes of Warren making that speech.

Actually, it’s from yesterday and I missed it!

Of course, she has no less experience than Barack Obama had…

Honestly, that would my favorite with Newt a close second.

If anyone could push AZ blue it’s Donald Trump

Actually, in the last four elections, each of those states has been blue twice and red twice. They are still very much swing states.

I’ll never forget when my father told me that Muhammad Ali wasn’t his birth name. It made such an impact on me. It took such enormous courage to take on the world as Ali did. Even as a child I considered him the bravest man on the planet — and it had nothing to do with his boxing.

No, he has until June 24 to decide.

Thanks for reading. There’s obviously nothing really newsworthy in Trump’s statement but it certainly says something about the candidate.

And I laughed while reading it so thought I’d share it with you.

You may not like the comparison but it’s true. Ronald Reagan changed the direction of the country and changed the terms of political debate for more than two decades. I think Obama is now doing the same.

Reagan was one of the most consequential presidents of the last 100 years. It’s early, but I think Obama could be too.

At this point in the race the national polling numbers are actually the best we have since very few state polls have been done at this point.

It’s actually at exactly this time that they start to become reliable, since the nominees are essentially decided.

In all cases, it’s better to rely on polling averages than any one poll.

The 2013 mayoral run was his second chance. He blew it.

Sanders does have all the leverage. Isn’t politics wonderful?

I think it would involve three things:

1. Eliminate super delegates
2. Give him some wins on the platform
3. Pick a progressive running mate

Maybe Clinton only needs to make concessions on two out of three, but I suspect this is what Sanders is fighting for right now.

A former DNC chairman isn’t exactly the type of candidate that would appeal to Sanders supporters.

If Clinton doesn’t make peace with Sanders supporters, I’m convinced she’ll lose. I under estimated how effortlessly Republicans rallied around Trump once he sealed the deal. This could be a very close race and Clinton doesn’t have the luxury to snub Sanders.

They actually have been the best moderators. It’s a low bar on cable news networks, but they have been good.

The polling average shows the race tightening over the last 6-7 weeks

That’s quite a page of contradictions.

Ted Cruz spent millions on what most agreed was the best ground game and analytics of all the GOP candidates. That and $2.35 will now get him a coffee at Starbucks.

Actually, the national polls have meant nothing until this point. This is when these polls start to matter.

Personally, I don’t understand why everyone doesn’t vote. But I do know that many, many people are turned off by politics. And if this becomes a nasty campaign that shows no connections to the problems that people face, I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout is down. There’s no guarantee at this point that it will be greater than it was in 2012 or 2008.

I’m not saying it’s predictive of anything. A lot can happen in the next six months. All I’m saying it’s that it’s close. The data shows that this is a closer race than most of the commentary suggests right now.

I never said he was the favorite. I said the election would probably be closer than most people think and that Trump could win.

Well, according to Nate, it’s the only measure worth paying attention to right now. Of course, Nate was one of those forecasters who said that Trump had almost no chance win the GOP nomination…

Of course not, but if Trump crowds out Hillary on TV that certainly could hurt her.

Perhaps, but Hillary Clinton effectively clinched the Democratic nomination before Trump did.

As Nate Silver notes, it’s too early to pay attention to state polls or electoral projections. But I’d say that a polling average showing only a 6 point lead at this point is hardly predictive of a landslide.

Give them time. The majority of them will fall in line by the time the convention rolls around.

Yes, good point. Trump abandoned Republican orthodoxy and promised to take on a corrupt system. This is a very powerful message and one for which Hillary Clinton is not a natural messenger. She could be, but she hasn’t shown it yet.

Sure, that’s a major problem. But what if voter turnout is way down? It’s likely to be a very negative campaign and I suspect a large number of people will be disgusted by the time November rolls around. Depressed turnout nearly always favors the Republican candidate.

Exactly. The news media needs Trump. This cannot be underestimated. No one is yearning to watch a Hillary Clinton campaign rally but people tune into Trump just in case he says something ridiculous.

You actually make my point. Since Trump secured the nomination, the national polls show it’s a six point race. That’s a close race.

Not necessarily. The other GOP candidates couldn’t get their message heard at all. Trump dominated all media coverage — it didn’t seem to matter whether it was good or bad.

There are many good points here. The one that undercuts my argument the most is about taking into account the current dysfunction of the Republican party. That obviously was a big help to Trump in the primaries and will hurt him in the general election.

Yes, the dysfunction in the Republican party certainly helped Trump win the nomination as well. That won’t necessarily be the case i the general election.

But there seems to be a real hunger for a candidate who will take on what they see as a corrupt system. Clinton needs to address this over she could be overwhelmed by it.

I was very skeptical of a lot in that book. But amazingly almost everything about John and Elizabeth Edwards was true.

Maybe nothing, but you can be sure Donald Trump will be talking about “the Energizer.” Clinton’s past needlessly reckless behavior while president did end up distracting the nation for many months.

We took a slightly more informal and relaxed approach to this episode. Let us know what you think!

Ryan won’t survive as Speaker if he negotiates tax reform with Clinton. It’s highly likely the House Freedom Caucus will force him out.

I think it can easily be blamed on Trump.

These are good points. The first and third are definite advantages. It’s not clear about the second one.

Yes, I probably agree with this though it will still be considered a big part of his legacy.

Trump underperformed in the primary and there’s considerable evidence that Mormons really don’t like him.

It seems so unlikely that Rubio would agree to be Trump’s running mate. But even with him, Trump is so damaged with Latino voters that the state seems a safe blue at this point.

Perhaps I should have made it light blue, but I definitely think Georgia is in play.

As I noted, I’m being generous to Trump in this map.

A reader just sent this video tribute to Danielle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfBddyaG6zw

Take a look at the Nate Cohn analysis. It’s pretty solid and shows Trump has more wiggle room than you might think.

I think it has a lot to do with why Trump is winning. The consistent failure of the anti-Trump forces is a major story of this primary season. This is just one more example.

That’s because the Democratic nomination has been essentially over for more than a month.

These polling results are very newsworthy for the Republican race. But they are close to meaningless to the Democratic race as Hillary Clinton has essentially locked up the Democratic nomination.

I love Nate but he gave Trump a 5% chance of winning the nomination last fall.

I don’t think this is a short term problem. I think that between what we’ve seen since the George W. Bush administration and the GOP’s problems governing the House majority, there’s a major realignment coming. This can’t be fixed with a new candidate.

As anyone who has been reading knows, I agree with the prognosis for the GOP this year. But the speculation is nonetheless interesting (to me at least!) because I don’t think the GOP elite is as in touch with their rank and file as they need to be. And the resulting chaos at the convention will be very important in determining the future of the party.

I think that summarizes the GOP’s predicament nicely.

Thanks. I’m working on a post about that.

I meant the end of the Republican party. I think there have been forces unleashed that will cause it’s disintegration for all intents and purposes. More in a later piece…

I think that point is well taken and explains the attraction of Sanders to many Democrats. But it doesn’t change the math.

Fox News called the race almost immediately. Exit polls shows Sanders up by double-digits.

I agree. A Trump-Cruz alliance would be a true disaster for the GOP.

Yes, that’s the risk – but I think that’s the state of the Republican party today. I don’t think there is a candidate who can bring them together anymore.

Well done!

That’s what John Edwards told us…

It’s just a fact. Hillary Clinton has a negative favorability rating.

Yes, avoiding the party filter is a big part of it. Great point.

It’s an important piece of the puzzle and in my view was one of the key reasons Obama was able to win re-election. Trump has picked two issues — trade and immigration — that really resonate on social media with his supporters.

This is really great. Thank you for sharing with us!

But the impact is the same as option 1

That’s a good point. If Trump sweeps all 5 states on Tuesday it will be pretty hard to stop him.

Sorry for being late in putting up a post for discussion… hearing the candidates discuss penis size in the opening minutes threw me.

Enjoy!

I agree that it would provoke chaos. But do you think House Republicans could resist if faced with the option?

The main political news over the last couple of days has been all about the Republicans. There is a primary tomorrow for Democrats, but all signs point to a blow out.

Sure thing!

I think Trump has an amazing ability to cut down his opponents with just a few words. Calling Jeb Bush “low energy” was worth $100 million in attack ads. Calling Ted Cruz a “nasty man” that “no one likes” seemed to have really hurt Cruz. Ben Carson still hasn’t recovered from Trump’s diatribe over the belt buckle.

Yes, I completely agree that it’s unlikely. But it’s also very unlikely Rubio can win the nomination with Kasich actively competing through March 15.

You’re right that the establishment “lane” might not lead to the nomination — especially when it’s still got traffic and the frontrunner is on a highway

It’s really an interesting puzzle. Just fascinating.

There’s no question that Trump is the biggest winner tonight – by far. But Rubio was handed a gift by Bush getting out of the race.

Agreed. But I also think that Rubio wants Cruz to stay in the race and will focus most of his fire on Trump.

Attacking Trump is interesting in theory. But Trump is already running against the Republican party, has flip-flopped on just about every issue, got in a public fight with Pope Francis, endorsed mass murder and torture — and he’s still way ahead. I’m not sure how Rubio or anyone else is supposed to attack Trump.

Exactly, it’s getting pretty hard to find any path to a two-man race at this point. If the battle for second continues, it’s almost certain that Kasich and Bush/Rubio try to stay in the race until their home states vote on March 15.

That, of course, is the worst possible outcome for a party trying to find a Trump alternative. Total chaos.

Goldman Sachs is not the one in handcuffs…

Yes, that was amazing to watch. It’s probably highly accurate for late deciders. But even the above chart is interesting to see who is dominating the race today.

It’s my understanding that Supreme Court justices have typically only recused themselves when they have a financial interest before the court.

Yes, that was a pleasant surprise!

Yes, the winner-take-all date of March 15 is a key factor in the simulation.

I thought they might cancel each other out…

I think the odds have always favored a two-man race at some point, but boy would I enjoy a 7-way race.

I agree that many will see Rubio as the bigger target but I think his support is much more solid than Trump’s at this point. The “winner” has now lost. I think Trump is in a dramatically weakened position and must win New Hampshire. If he loses, he’s toast. This is the time to go after him.

I think this is a fair point. Clinton and Obama were much closer ideologically than Clinton and Sanders.

Yes, Clinton’s Iraq vote was important in 2008 but I think her ties to Wall Street are what is fueling Sanders now. I also think the campaign finance system (which is tied to Wall Street) is also a key issue for Sanders.

That’s a mistake a lot of people are making. See Amy Walter’s excellent take on this: https://politicalwire.com/2016/01/28/trump-is-not-teflon/

I agree with much of what you say. However, I think the Democratic debates have actually been pretty substantive — especially the last one. The shame is that the Democratic party has apparently intentionally limited the viewership by scheduling them at odd times.

My instant reaction was that Trump won

They tend to be the more moderate states that vote later in the cycle.

It’s not fantasy, but it is a steep climb.

This issue is now fixed.

You obviously don’t like winning

Excellent – so glad you like the membership!

Sorry for the problems… this is now fixed.

I think this highlights the problem for the GOP — for some in the GOP establishment Trump really is the safer choice. For others, it’s Cruz. For all, it’s a very bad choice to be forced to make.

And yet while you yawn people are lining up at Walmart to buy more guns

I have to admit I barely watch the closing statements. I really hate them.

Maybe, but what state can he win? I think he’s at best a spoiler at this point.

Great idea for next round!

You may be right about that. I wasn’t entirely sure where she should go, but I’m fairly certain it doesn’t make sense for her to drop out anytime soon.

Those add up to more than 50%

We’re talking about a GOP debate and primary. It could be what he needs to win actually.

Who said it was a small or minority group? I’m not sure that’s the case in the GOP today.

I think it’s on Sirius XM 112 as well

I thought anyone paying attention to politics over the last 6 months knows this is a joke piece… but apparently not!

I really don’t think Trump hurt himself with the tea party and anti-immigration voters he’s been targeting. It’s hard to see how he loses ground with this group. They don’t like the Republican Party or its politicians and don’t care if Trump won’t rule out a third party bid.

That said, the GOP establishment now wants Trump gone and Fox News will help them do that.

Don Imus did get fired

It’s getting increasingly hard to support an independent site. Would you be open to paid version that eliminates all ads? I’d be happy to look into that.

Thank you!

Upload with resume…thanks!

I think this argument has a lot of merit, but I can’t get passed this…

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Thanks for reading!

Cruz could always buy health insurance privately instead of through an Obamacare exchange.

Thank you for being a reader. Everything looks like it’s working well now.

Thanks so much!

Thanks for reading!

You got me!

Thank you! Hopefully we’re going to see much better reliability now.

Yes, it should fix those problems. Sorry for the inconvenience.

No, this is the newspaper’s editorial board which speaks for the newspaper.

Pro-tip: Drink some water before you go on live television.

Unless, of course, the GOP establishment is split between Christie and Bush

I’ve heard no issues at all.

These are coming back soon

Disqus loads OK on an iPhone. What phone are you using?

Thanks. That’s a test but I’m not sure I like it either.

Thank you. I’ve been working to fix this but it may take a few more days.