[email protected] has comments on 7 sites
erikhare.com
(5025)
erikhare.com
(4989)
mintpressnews.com
(13)
elephanttail.wordpress.com
(1)
activistpost.com
(1)
Barataria - The work of Erik Hare / erikhare.com
I don't break news, I fix it.
| Comment | Date | Name | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| I just want to point out that in the name of unity I left out some of the comments from disgruntled French people. I don't think that "Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries." is really all that useful for forming a new nation. | 2019-04-01T15:14:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/04/01/brexit-finally-abandoned/#comment-66275 |
| It comes down to how we would do any such thing. National sovereignty as we know it is generally rather absolute - though Iraqis in the audience can chime in now and tell me otherwise. That seems like an extreme position, but it's understandable. Arrangements like this were reached after decades of horrific war. We do not know what to do with nations that have failed in some important way. These include Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and probably a few others. Your list might be longer than mine. For example, is Saudi Arabia's terrible human rights record a "failure"? I do not have the answers to everything. What I can say is that more and more people see themselves as citizens of the world. We're not all Rick Blaine in Casablanca, but I get the feeling that there's a certain tough outside with a soft inside which comes with that. I simply think it's worth exploring at this time. My only solution is to develop a global sense of culture. Any global government of any kind has to come after that, IMHO. It may also nto be necessary if we do it right. |
2019-03-26T15:24:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/03/25/national-identity-2/#comment-66075 |
| I have a little joke when I meet a struggling young painter. I ask them if they are a vegetarian, and if they are I tell them, "You're just like Hitler!" (No, I don't do that very often. Like once. Yeah, it's not likely to be taken well.) The point is that such comparisons are never useful. Should we have some kind of global entity? Well, a majority of people on this planet already do. What should it be? I'm a strongly federalist kind of guy, so I would say minimal. In fact, what I am leading to in all of this is what I stated previously 0 that in a world where there is broad agreement on that is decent, moral, fair, and good there is little need for any such "government." I really think that's the direction we must go, no matter what. So .. am I calling for a world government/ Not in the slightest. Not even close. And eat your veggies if you want to grow up to be big and strong and command vast armies. |
2019-03-26T15:19:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/03/25/national-identity-2/#comment-66074 |
| Thank you, and I agree completely. This is where I'm going with this, after the initial setup. I will be talking about Confucius, who I think organized the most universal concepts of ethics as succinctly as anyone ever could. But I had to introduce the concept. I now think that a universal sense of ethics is critical, much more than any system we choose. We have to belong first and foremost to be an open society. That's where I'm going here. I'll focus on details next. :-) |
2019-03-20T17:51:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/03/20/disconnection/#comment-65966 |
| Yes, there will be more about this. I don't want to go too far into pure sociology, but to me this is the main issue. How do we connect? How do we not disconnect some in the process of whatever we're doing? | 2019-03-20T17:48:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/03/20/disconnection/#comment-65965 |
| And I support doing it the right way. That logically includes not setting arbitrary quotas and observing international law for those seeking asylum. It means supporting those who come here, possibly even tracking them to make sure they are OK. It means that we should be sure they have success, as we all do better when we all do better. I won't argue with you on the main point, since we're taking this to a fundamental level of principle. But where these principles become practical matters of life and death, we are obviously failing. I only hope we can agree that our nation is stronger when those with the drive to make a better life for themselves arrive. Adding that it should be done with a system to ensure that it is done well is also reasonable, IMHO. But what is the goal of that system? |
2019-03-15T15:17:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/03/15/we-are-all-immigrants/#comment-65876 |
| Experience is needed, no doubt. We treat all of this as an orphan. But to me, fast freight may well be the future. Retail is moving online, and manufacturing is moving to JIT more all the time. Both of these are limited by shipping. Are there needs for this new economy that we are not providing? I do think that there are, and that fast rail may have some important answers. | 2019-02-14T17:33:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/02/13/rail-is-dead-long-live-rail/#comment-65036 |
| It is a huge issue all over. We decided to go with air travel, it seems, and invested very heavily in that. Given our size, that makes sense, but we're reaching the density where trains make a lot more sense. As for intra-urban - yeah, it's just not good at all. We have long devalued transportation. I think it shows in terms of access to the driving engines of our economy and how many people are simply left out. That' is, to me, what transportation is all about. |
2019-02-14T17:31:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/02/13/rail-is-dead-long-live-rail/#comment-65035 |
| A very good point. Denver airport, the last big one built from scratch, cost about $8 billion in today's money. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denver_International_Airport Kansas City is considering a tiny airport that is experiencing big overruns, and is now at $1.9 billion. https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2018/10/31/kci-costs-increase-as-airlines-aviation-department.html If we had to replace all the airports in the US, and we more or less will in the next 30 years, it would easily cost $1 trillion. So I think it's safe to ask ourselves what the best investment in infrastructure would be given what we know has to take place in terms of rebuilding what we have over time. An excellent point. Thank you. |
2019-02-13T17:42:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/02/13/rail-is-dead-long-live-rail/#comment-65026 |
| I agree all around. It's never a good idea to fully extrapolate from what an authoritarian government can do in infrastructure. There are a lot of aspects of how they do things what we may not be able to tolerate - and you and I have seen some of that behavior in action as it is. There is little doubt in my mind that the ability to conceive, manage, and execute projects like this is extremely lacking in the US as a whole. We're just not competent. And there's no excuse for that. We can learn something from China, without a doubt. They learned from Germany. We can all learn from each other and do a lot of things better. That's my main point. Is a high-speed rail network across the US a good idea? I think it could be, especially as a way of transforming shipment and connecting factories with consumers directly - pure JIT. But we're not talking about that very much. Certainly, the costs we have are at least double, maybe more, given our known failures. Let's change that first and work out a vision. If it makes sense, let's do it. As it stands now we are clearly unable to deliver what we need, however. |
2019-02-13T17:30:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/02/13/rail-is-dead-long-live-rail/#comment-65024 |
| Yes! More complex societies can be much stronger, but they can also be more brittle. Resiliency is something that I think has to be designed in from the start, which is why it's a key component of People's Economics (under Dynamic Stability). There is indeed a quality to every connection, and the lower the quality the more entropy there is. Connections can indeed decay and entropy can increase. I think my main point here is that this perspective is a first step towards building in that resilience that is so necessary in any society where only a tiny percentage of the people create food. There are a lot of papers on systems collapse. Here's one. But you have an excellent point, one that is going to only be more important all the time. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B978012586050550035X |
2019-01-19T00:15:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/01/18/syndesics/#comment-64482 |
| Ha! Yes, there is a lot more to it. Later. :-) | 2019-01-19T00:11:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/01/18/syndesics/#comment-64481 |
| Also, worthy of note, the need to use Greek is important not just because it's so handy for creating words but also from some of the great connections made by Alexander circa 2,500 years ago. | 2019-01-18T18:44:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/01/18/syndesics/#comment-64475 |
| Yes. That is the term for things that have been connected. Another possibility was syndesiology, or the study of connecting, but that sounds horrible. I think it should go with economics and politics, where -ics describes a body of knowledge and practice. | 2019-01-18T18:43:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2019/01/18/syndesics/#comment-64474 |
| Here is a good background on Quirinius https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZSFMuOdEo | 2018-12-23T16:42:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/21/the-meaning-of-christmas/#comment-63873 |
| I have in the past, but you are right. It is the real reason for all of this. | 2018-12-23T16:41:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/21/the-meaning-of-christmas/#comment-63872 |
| Thank you! | 2018-12-23T16:41:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/21/the-meaning-of-christmas/#comment-63871 |
| Thank Gini! I've gotten so much from you over the years that anything I can do to return the favor is indeed my pleasure. | 2018-12-18T16:17:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/17/fads-marketing/#comment-63768 |
| This is the first time I've done this, so let's be really open. The content was NOT reviewed in advance, and I volunteered to be part of the campaign because I really do love this book. What's different here? In many ways, this is indeed just an evolution of marketing from long ago. But it's far more insidious, and now backed by tons of personal data. It's directed and targeted. And very, very well refined. |
2018-12-17T21:05:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/17/fads-marketing/#comment-63741 |
| I have a few on the history of finance I could recommend for you, too. This is the first great book on trends in marketing that I have seen. | 2018-12-17T20:17:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/17/fads-marketing/#comment-63739 |
| I think you will like it a lot. It's to the point without getting cynical or conspiratorial. | 2018-12-17T20:16:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/17/fads-marketing/#comment-63738 |
| It's a fast read, but it will take you into some serious research on your own. Yeah, that'll eat up yer spare time. :-) But it's very worth it. | 2018-12-17T20:07:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/17/fads-marketing/#comment-63735 |
| There seems to be A LOT wrong with them, yes. But I think most of it stems from this kind of thinking. They have to keep the factories running, there are always economies of scale. That makes them risk adverse among all the other problems, which I think is what is wrong with the Bolt. Oh, and everyone has to be completely on board before anything happens. |
2018-12-08T00:20:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/07/gm-the-national-industrial-model/#comment-63520 |
| We would have gotten our quarterly profit goal if it weren't for you meddling kids! Seriously, the old industrial model has to be the biggest force for conformity and homogeneity that we had. It wasn't just political order, it was where all money came from. You wouldn't want to mess with that, would you? Noswshut yer mouth and then open it up to eat food from cans and things like that. There is a place for leadership in the market model, so there is a place for supply-side push. I've been thinking about this some for the purposes of People's Economics, but generally it's a very different animal than the old industrial model, IMHO. |
2018-12-08T00:18:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/12/07/gm-the-national-industrial-model/#comment-63519 |
| "Simple & Deep" I think is what you mean. Yes, this is a good example of that! | 2018-11-30T18:01:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/11/30/a-charlie-brown-christmas-2/#comment-63347 |
| Thank you for sharing! | 2018-11-30T18:01:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/11/30/a-charlie-brown-christmas-2/#comment-63346 |
| Thank you. Yes, as everyone tells me, it is too much. This is why I have to get the book organized - to go over all the details. But I wanted to have the structure first. People do have to have the joy of learning, which I think starts from good experience learning. This applies to kids and adults both. For adults it has to have application, too. For the whole economy it has to have the ability to take action and move forward. This is what People's Economics is all about - what do we need to be sure that the next economy is one which people master, rather than submit to? It has to be all about skill. Techne, simply means skill - technology is the study of skill. Without that, we have nothing. Thanks! |
2018-11-13T16:20:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/11/09/peoples-economics-personal-development/#comment-62971 |
| That's the whole issue, isn't it? It gets long. But organization is key, as are the stories that make it come alive. | 2018-11-09T21:40:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/11/09/peoples-economics-personal-development/#comment-62834 |
| Yes, there is a lot more to it. I will be filling in more detail as I can. | 2018-11-09T21:40:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/11/09/peoples-economics-personal-development/#comment-62833 |
| I'm outlining principles here, not specific policies. Some of these are radical enough that they need to be fleshed out as principles first, I'm sorry to say. The need for a multiple intelligences based system is far, far from well known let alone accepted. | 2018-11-09T21:39:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/11/09/peoples-economics-personal-development/#comment-62832 |
| I would love to discuss this with you much further. I will be reading your blog. Thank you. | 2018-11-09T21:38:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/11/09/peoples-economics-personal-development/#comment-62831 |
| I hope she can recover from this, but I think it is unlikely. Race is such a poison that a misstep in this area causes a lot of damage. That's my problem with this. We will see how it plays out more generally, however. But the rest I am sure of - we do have to fight back, but it can never, ever be on their terms. | 2018-10-17T18:06:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/10/17/fighting-back/#comment-61892 |
| Moi? :-) Yes, a lot more. This is actually part of People's Economics. I am convinced that equal access to markets is thwarted by business cycles. Getting out of poverty requires stability, and the lack of it is worth investigating. Given these long-range cycles as a fact, what drives them? If it's debt, then the use of debt has to be curtailed. In the end, I'm re-thinking the entire "time value of money" trope and the concept of interest. I do not want to presume inflation, for example, and I feel it's built into our system. |
2018-10-03T18:21:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/10/03/equity-debt/#comment-61278 |
| You are right, it probably has. One thing I cut out due to length, and may revisit again, is that this is a much more serious problem in a time of rising interest rates. But the Fed appears to be protecting the stock market by raising rates very slowly - despite obvious inflation well over their 2% target. If that situation corrected itself and the Fed Funds Rate was up about 5% like it should be, a collapse would be totally unavoidable. So yes, by all rights you are spot on. | 2018-09-26T15:17:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/09/26/corporate-debt/#comment-60505 |
| Again, the interests align here which is what I really meant. Looking at this things from a strictly national perspective is tricky in that it does leave out what's important, but that is what I meant this time. Everyone would benefit from some capital controls and other re-alignment of how trade is conducted, particularly the end of the US Dollar as the world currency. | 2018-09-19T17:11:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/09/19/cooperation-not-combat/#comment-59774 |
| You are absolutely right! A fair criticism, for sure. What I would add is that the interests of labor align remarkably well with many of these issues, too. Capital restrictions are a good example of controlling the rich without damaging jobs and farm income. That's really the main point. |
2018-09-19T15:56:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/09/19/cooperation-not-combat/#comment-59766 |
| Fixed, thank you! | 2018-06-25T16:43:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/06/25/fact-based-policy/#comment-56785 |
| I would not be so sure that your family was completely legal. Many, many people came here after 1924 in violation of the quotas that were put in place. I would advise checking that out carefully. And there is no shame in how "our people" came here, some of mine were indeed refugees. The definition of "illegal" is what is at issue here. Yes, a law was passed and people are not allowed in. Is that law reasonable or just? Is that law actually who we are as a people? That is what has to change. And it can. We have to be better. There is no doubt in my mind that there will be a greater demand for immigrants, not less. As it is, the current crackdown has many crops rotting in fields. We have no connection between our policies and reality. Why not? Why are we so very nasty when it is clear there is work to be done left undone by those who are here? None of it makes sense. That's the problem, and that's something I'll get into more later. Meanwhile, there is this piece from 4.5 years ago which I stand behind still: https://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/ |
2018-06-20T15:47:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/06/20/the-road-to-hell/#comment-56704 |
| I suppose that I should add that this post is in response to several conversations I've had with people defending the administration. Most of the excuses I cannot stand, and frankly bring me to tears thinking that people can make excuses for child abuse. But those who have said that "Clinton did it, too!" were not offering a valid excuse but they sure had a point. They forced me to consider again what I've long known - that our immigration policies are a horror. So I should thank them for that lesson. | 2018-06-20T15:42:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/06/20/the-road-to-hell/#comment-56703 |
| I think that they have a path to promote China through economic and diplomatic power. I expect them to stay with that. Their ability to project power outside their borders is very limited. Even with the sea trials of the (unnamed) second aircraft carrier they really can't create too much havoc. | 2018-05-21T18:18:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/21/moving-beyond-the-us/#comment-56123 |
| Thanks. it is irreversible at this point, it's only a matter of how fast our position will melt down. It appears that this will be quick. We have this statement today: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44200621 (Note: This is not possible, given that the SWIFT network will remain connected.) |
2018-05-21T18:07:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/21/moving-beyond-the-us/#comment-56121 |
| This is the end of the American Empire, for sure. We will have no allies once this is all done. | 2018-05-09T16:36:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/09/eight-reasons-why-ending-the-iran-deal-is-stupid/#comment-55886 |
| We learned nothing. Not a thing. | 2018-05-09T16:36:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/09/eight-reasons-why-ending-the-iran-deal-is-stupid/#comment-55885 |
| Thanks. | 2018-05-09T16:36:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/09/eight-reasons-why-ending-the-iran-deal-is-stupid/#comment-55884 |
| We are indeed only at the beginning. There is still time to undo this damage, but not much. | 2018-05-09T16:36:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/09/eight-reasons-why-ending-the-iran-deal-is-stupid/#comment-55883 |
| No. Are you assuming that mass media manipulation in bulk is equally as effective as personalized, targeted messages that speak directly to an individuals values, fears, and experiences? |
2018-03-20T19:06:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/03/19/culture-war-meets-cyber-war/#comment-54912 |
| Part of me agrees with you. We have to be more intelligent about all of the information we consume. But there is also a public trust issue that I think calls for disclosure, the bedrock of regulation. What I'm seeing about the UK law, requiring disclosure of how information is used, I like. | 2018-03-20T19:04:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/03/19/culture-war-meets-cyber-war/#comment-54911 |
| And it happens constantly, usually by people with something to sell you. Politics? Feh. | 2018-03-20T19:03:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/03/19/culture-war-meets-cyber-war/#comment-54910 |
| The last few months show an acceleration. It's very not good. | 2018-02-14T20:31:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/14/inflation-is-back/#comment-54354 |
| I know for a fact that many people do not consider me to be a Christian. I have been told this directly. And I do not begrudge anyone their beliefs, certainly. But when they say their beliefs came from Jesus and they most certainly did not? What should we say? I see nothing wrong with asserting that those who do not follow what Jesus taught are not actually Christian. This does not condemn them to Hell or anything like that. It simply means that wherever they got their beliefs it certainly wasn't from Jesus. And I think we can easily show that. |
2018-02-07T18:36:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-54213 |
| Thank you. I explained a little more in the follow-up as to what to watch. Your point about controlling immigration in the face of full employment is also critical. There is often little that policy can do to make things much better, but it can always make things much worse. We are seeing that, I'm afraid. |
2018-02-07T18:20:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54212 |
| My pleasure! Please, any questions you might have I'll do my best to answer or at least find a good article that addresses them. | 2018-02-07T16:51:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/07/where-do-stocks-go-now/#comment-54208 |
| You are right, I have neglected all signs of a recession. My general assumption is that the underlying economy is strong. But there is a chance that short-term rates might bid up first and the curve inverts. That would be very bad. | 2018-02-07T16:51:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/07/where-do-stocks-go-now/#comment-54207 |
| Yes, it is about the debt at some point. I'm all in favor of a budget being out of whack in a major downturn, as it was in 2008-2012. But right now it should be balanced or even in surplus. To me, the fact that the Feds do not separate ordinary expenditures from capital expenditures is appalling. Racking up debt as a legitimate investment is one thing, but just to pay the bills? The ultimate amount is still important, but the first question we should be asking is why we have a deficit. If it's for infrastructure, it may be justified. So there are many ways to look at this as far as I am concerned. All of them point to this being a terrible way to run things right now. And there will be a reckoning - I think very shortly given the three things I have pointed out coming together. |
2018-02-06T17:36:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54189 |
| Yes, but I said the same thing with more words and a few graphs. :-) Seriously, that is about how it goes. There are some underlying reasons as to why, for those who want to get into it, but intuition can tell you a lot as well. | 2018-02-06T17:33:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54188 |
| The market got ahead of itself, is all. https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-05/stock-investors-don-t-need-to-worry-about-bonds-just-yet This is a good article which attempts to justify the current stock market valuation. But I think it fails for the reasons outlined in the above piece. The mark they set for justifying current valuation is a 10yr yield at 4.2%. At 2.8% they are not worried. If you take a net spread between the FFR and the 10yr of around 1.2, as it is now, we could easily see a FFR around 3.0 and a 10yr at 4.2. But it's more reasonable that we'll go more in the 3.5 FFR and a more average 1.6 spread, or 5.1. And worst case is more in the 5.0 and 2.0 range in the next 2 years, or a 10yr of 7% !! So what is the market worth? I'd say we have to lose about 20-25%, which is one Hell of a haircut. That puts the DJIA under 20k, for example, maybe as low as 18k. It's not that the economy isn't strong, it's that it's so strong and the deficit is growing, meaning the 10yr just plain has to rise - perhaps substantially. |
2018-02-05T22:03:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54171 |
| We are in the same range. I'm doing my best to come up with some good predictions for my next post, but to be honest the chartist people I've read so far are really in denial. I can't find support levels which make a lot of sense to me. | 2018-02-05T21:57:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54170 |
| It was and was not a bubble. If you believe the best case scenario, valuations were justified. If anything went wrong not so much. That's where we are at - things are going wrong. | 2018-02-05T21:57:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54169 |
| Basically, Yes! That is about it. And so the Pope and the Dalai Lama are one. :-) | 2017-12-16T21:30:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/15/sermon-on-the-mount/#comment-53546 |
| How it got where it is remains a mystery to me, I have to say. I have long thought about charting out all the various Christian faiths and laying out the key differences to gain some insight as to how so many extra-Christian things were absorbed. On a personal note, among my eight great-grandparents there are eight difference Christian faiths. I have spent a lifetime trying to understand this. |
2017-12-16T21:30:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/15/sermon-on-the-mount/#comment-53545 |
| Thank you very much. I hope to challenge just the right amount to open hearts and minds to possibilities. If nothing else, we have much more reason to get along than to be in conflict. I'd like to start there. | 2017-12-16T21:27:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53544 |
| Thank you, and Merry Christmas. I am doing my best and hope to keep doing it. | 2017-12-16T21:27:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53543 |
| Thank you. | 2017-12-16T21:25:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53542 |
| Thank you very much. Yes, you caught me! I am preaching, indeed. I don't really want to, but I feel that this is a message that the world needs. I want to present it with humility and as much care as possible. | 2017-12-16T21:24:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53541 |
| I believe there is. | 2017-12-16T21:24:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53540 |
| A very, very good point. | 2017-12-16T21:22:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53539 |
| Thank you. Exactly what to make of the Old Testament is difficult. I later presented the Sermon on the Mount exactly as it is because that is where my sense of faith, the Anabaptists or Amish/Mennonite/Brethren comes from. No matter what, I think that seeing it all through the grace of Jesus has to be a starting point - which is to say starting with love and decency. If someone or some faith is opposed to homosexuality I can understand this, but I cannot understand being nasty. | 2017-12-16T21:22:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53538 |
| Very good. There is a lot of historical interpretation, and I am willing to accept that. For example, Evangelium Vitae teaches that the Catholic Church is pro-life in every possible sense of the term. Is that exactly what Jesus taught? No, but it is consistent and honorable. It is also taught in a way that emphasizes the direction of the hearts of believers and not political action in conflict with other institutions which include non-believers. It's completely different in that sense. | 2017-12-16T21:18:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53537 |
| It most definitely is not. Their agenda is NOT the Bible, not by a longshot. It is made up and they use Jesus for cover. It is despicable if you ask me. People can be against abortion and I can understand that. Don't tell me Jesus said so. And don't lie and treat people like dirt for not following that false witness against Jesus. | 2017-12-16T21:13:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53535 |
| Thank you. Yes, we can all find various things we like or dislike in any statement of faith. But we also all know decency when we see it, and that is indeed the root of the teachings of Jesus and his followers. So let's just start there and point out where that failure occurs. It's pretty straightforward and easy. | 2017-12-16T21:12:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53534 |
| It is beyond astonishing that they follow that man. He fits the description of Satan so much better than that of Jesus. It's not my place to anyone who is worthy of following, but I can say that this is clearly not what Jesus taught. I also prefer King James, as I was raised with it. But the language of the NIV is more contemporary, so I thought it would reach a wider audience. :-) |
2017-12-16T21:10:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53533 |
| Thank you. I have had my fill of this and have decided it's long past time for me to be shy about my own personal studies and beliefs. I do not wish to be like them so I've been private for a long time. But that silence is starting to feel like complicity. | 2017-12-16T21:08:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53532 |
| Again, it's presented here without comment for you to make up your own mind. For one, it's worth comparing to what you have been told Christianity is about. For another, I could go through paragraph by paragraph and point out the parts which are Jewish, Buddhist, Daoist, or a mixture. What is important here is that the actual words of Jesus are almost never presented unfiltered. I find that appalling, especially for such an historically important figure. | 2017-12-15T00:27:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/15/sermon-on-the-mount/#comment-53469 |
| It it, indeed, but people are watching. That hasn't always been true. | 2017-11-27T18:12:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/27/taxing-times/#comment-53209 |
| And it is likely to happen at some point here, if it hasn't already. I can't see the Democrats raising much without any kind of plan, and the Republicans are unlikely to produce anything. So gridlock may actually be good for something? | 2017-11-27T18:12:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/27/taxing-times/#comment-53208 |
| I hope that we are indeed really trashing "The Great Man Theory" all together. Then again, look at what a hero some have made of Tesla in the process of trashing Edison. Truth is somewhere in between, both men were mortals. | 2017-11-17T21:40:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/17/hero-worship/#comment-53055 |
| Yes, a good point. | 2017-11-17T21:38:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/17/hero-worship/#comment-53054 |
| It is unfair to compare Sanders, and I did not mean to. There is a lot of hope that in defeat his supporters are turning towards running for local offices themselves, which is exactly what has to be done. So that alone is a critical difference. People always have their heroes, I guess, and it is hard to say exactly why. But I do think that taken to the extreme, that only a hero or a christ figure can save us, is a recipe for something horrible. |
2017-11-17T21:38:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/17/hero-worship/#comment-53053 |
| Thank you! | 2017-11-10T20:54:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/10/good-people/#comment-52938 |
| I am pretty sure this is what a lot of people, especially the third or so that is "independent," tend to do. You put up good people and you win the independent vote. That's about all there is. | 2017-11-10T20:54:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/10/good-people/#comment-52937 |
| Thank you very much. This takes me back to my childhood, when some of this was still around. | 2017-11-09T21:12:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/songs-poems/short-stories/cutler/#comment-52931 |
| Someone asked me in mail how this would stop over-regulation or arguments that we are over-regulated. I would say this - I think we can see what percentage of all regulations are at various levels and judge from there. I would think a split on levels 1/2/3/4 would be around 52/27/14/7 percent - which is to say each more onerous level is 1/2 as common as the previous one. If it doesn't come out that way, why? It would give us a way of judging how tough things are and how focused they are on the goals. | 2017-11-06T02:33:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/06/regulation-something-different/#comment-52862 |
| I think that maybe we should start with small things we can sneak through. It would help build a centrist coalition through shared work and common purpose. This is a strategy much better suite for someone in congress, not in the position I have as a nobody, but it's an idea. | 2017-11-06T02:29:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/06/regulation-something-different/#comment-52861 |
| Regarding racism and sexism, which are very similar in many ways - I do think that European Americans, especially men, do understand at their core that they are privileged. We are members of a ruling class. The problem comes when so many of us are struggling on a daily basis just like anyone else. There's a disconnect there between what we feel in our guts, learned at a young age, and the reality of the world. Someone lied to us, and it's much easier to say that the adult everyday life is simply corrupt and holding us back than to challenge the beliefs at our core, to realize that we are not an inherent ruling class. Perhaps that is what has broken down. There is definitely a rise of those who are different - by race, by gender and sexual preference, by non-Christian faith - which is itself something of a backlash to the enforced homogeny of our world. Feminism is much more difficult, as I said before, because it works through so many people with so many experiences and it redefines the family, but it is also rising up and challenging the conformity. We have to deal with it. I see a lot of good things here, and thank you all for it. I am focusing on conformity right now, along with the idea that privilege is actually well understood at a gut level. I am also thinking about how we just start making headway one issue at a time, acknowledging that shared work is the best way to bring people together. |
2017-11-03T15:56:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/03/the-core-sickness/#comment-52794 |
| Ignoring those in pain is probably a good start, but I'd like to offer them something to heal their pain. We need to get beyond it somehow. I do think being a lot more formal, essentially backing up a bit, would help a lot. There is a basic assumption that we are all the same or that we should be, which sounds like a noble expression of egalitarianism. It doesn't always work out that way, as Marlene pointed out. There has to be room for people to be different and comfortable expressing that. | 2017-11-03T15:50:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/03/the-core-sickness/#comment-52792 |
| So you see some of the symptoms as a diseases in themselves, a general neglect of everything that would make us "one people"? I can see that, but I wonder if there isn't one bigger thing at the core. For example, in the two party problem (which I agree is a problem) - why aren't we demanding better? Why did about half of voters pick an obviously unthnking, immoral person under the guise of just draining the swamp, burning it all down, causing change any way they could? Why not organize for more effective change? There is a terrible neglect of the public space of our world, a huge tragedy of the commons. That's why I go to excessive individualism. I don't disagree that fixing each of these one at a time may be the only thing we have to do, but we have to get people engaged before any good solution will happen for any of them. I don't see that happening in a constructive way right now. |
2017-11-03T15:10:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/03/the-core-sickness/#comment-52790 |
| Thank you. I know my initial impulse in terms of moral / emotional crisis is not a good one, which is why I asked. Perhaps less has actually changed than we think, we're just more aware of it now than we used to be. Confronting things like racism is very painful and it is causing people to feel like they are under siege. Confront sexism is only going to be worse as it is embedded in every family structure. European Americans, white people, are very conformist by nature. But what is expected of us today, in a more diverse world? Is it possibly the opposite of individualism which is breaking down, was I completely 180 degrees off? Perhaps. |
2017-11-03T15:06:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/03/the-core-sickness/#comment-52788 |
| It is both a new policy and an extension of the old policy. We're in it for ourselves. | 2017-09-22T16:18:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/20/united-nations-sort-of/#comment-51799 |
| It's not Obamacare the clock is running out on, it's just the ability to repeal it with only 50 votes. | 2017-09-22T16:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/22/life-support/#comment-51798 |
| I would love to read that, and I am thinking about it for People's Economics. The thing is that no other nation has the problem the way we do. We can find literally dozens of good systems which work better than ours. It doesn't really seem to matter which model we choose - the commitment to quality care without someone outside the system making a profit is critical. Incidentally, it's not just profit which is a problem, but a lack of uniform billing - it takes loads of worker hours just to figure out a bill and then how to pay a bill, etc. I was just told by someone in a biz like this that they offer a 30% cash discount because they don't have the insurance hassles. There you go. | 2017-09-06T02:49:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51610 |
| Indeed, with all of the training necessary to be a pharmacist, I see no reason why they couldn't prescribe things like this. In Germany there is a national registration so my use of antibiotics would be recorded. I think this is reasonable - it's not good to use them willy-nilly. But a pharmacist can certainly handle this. Nurses can handle many small things, too. That is definitely part of the lesson here. | 2017-09-06T02:46:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51609 |
| It is dysfunctional in so many ways, it's hard to know where to start. There is no clear knowledge of what anything "costs" or what's really involved. | 2017-09-06T02:44:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51608 |
| Exactly! This wasn't a very good experiment, was it? But then again, I wanted to get it over with. | 2017-09-06T02:43:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51607 |
| A quick search gave me no idea how much it "really costs". It will take time, so I decided to write this blankly. Yes, I would like to know. I was thinking about trying some neosporin, but it is my eye .... pH differences and all, so I didn't. I thought I'd try to do it "right". My guess is that the $252 is the insurance cost, which is to say that they can get away with it. Some guy off the street? I wonder what the brand-name expensive one was now. | 2017-09-06T02:43:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51606 |
| I was thinking the same thing. I am guessing that she has no idea what things cost. | 2017-09-06T02:41:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51605 |
| You are right! Thinking about it, the way kids get interested is that they want to build robots. They start with legos and learn to bolt and rivet and machine. Some of them then want to go back and have solid instruction on the real basics of machining or similar. But it starts out with a desire to make something useful and fun, usually something which has a lot of different skills tied together. | 2017-08-18T17:00:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-51287 |
| There may not be a general "hate speech" category, but in the case of Nazism it does seem that a good case can be made that this is all about killing and death. | 2017-08-18T15:32:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/18/fighting-words/#comment-51285 |
| It's really about the equipment needed and the level of skill. It may not be important at all. I do think that it's generally going to be best to start with the original ones and work to higher skills, but some people are going to have an interest in the advanced ones right away, yes. | 2017-08-18T15:29:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-51284 |
| I don’t believe it’s gotten that bad yet, but I understand How you might come to the conclusion that it has. Or is at the very least close to it. But I think we can both understand that a civilized Democratic Republic cannot be there, no matter what. I would like to start with that |
2017-08-18T00:44:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/18/fighting-words/#comment-51271 |
| I think that's what we all want. Sadly, we can only make it stop for ourselves. | 2017-08-17T20:47:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/16/beyond-good-and-evil/#comment-51268 |
| Anyone may use any content here as long as there is attribution. I would prefer that this comes in the form of a link. By all means, use what you want - and feel free to go back through some of the more constructive conversations on People's Economics and so on. Thanks! | 2017-08-15T16:38:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51239 |
| Is that flag "fighting words," and thus not protected? Part of me thinks it is. I really hate to go there, but it is something to think about. When I see a swastika I immediately become outraged - and I don't outrage easily. It's way, way over the line. | 2017-08-15T16:37:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51238 |
| They can't play the game anymore, it's clearly not a game. Where we go from here will be telling. It may be how it all had to come down for us to confront the ghosts which haunt us directly. This may simply be how our generation has to finish the struggle engaged long ago. | 2017-08-15T16:35:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51236 |
| A good point, it has not been resolved in our hearts. Previous generations thought it was, and died to make it so. But it's still there. There is something about Virginia and that is what I was trying to capture. It knows better, but it has trouble acting better. Always has. In that way it's a crystallized essence of all of America. |
2017-08-15T16:34:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51235 |
| Amen - history teaches us a lot if we are willing to learn. | 2017-08-15T16:32:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51234 |
| Thank you! | 2017-08-15T16:32:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51233 |
| It's our generation's turn. What will we do? It won't take 400,000 Americans dying, but are we willing to give what it takes? | 2017-08-15T16:31:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51232 |
| Thank you very much. | 2017-08-15T16:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51231 |
| Being able to survive on your own in the wilderness is an amazing set of skills. I am always fascinating by this. | 2017-08-04T21:19:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/26/resiliency-and-interdependence/#comment-51138 |
| This is what it will take to stop him. | 2017-08-04T21:18:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/04/firehose-of-falsehood/#comment-51137 |
| Indeed, it seems endless. The example of MH17 being shot down was illustrative. They were caught fabricating a photo of it being shot down from a plane and then went right on to keep denying and pushing other theories. | 2017-08-04T21:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/04/firehose-of-falsehood/#comment-51136 |
| Yes, it is. | 2017-08-02T20:50:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/02/putin-global-menace/#comment-51104 |
| This can only be described as a diversion. I didn't mention the activities of many nations, including the US, Iran, UK, Saudi Arabia, etc. Are we to imply from your posting that there is an equivalence implied? Or that we can't possibly do anything about Russia because our nation does awful things? None of these statements make any sense. This testimony stands on its own, as it should. Please stop with the diversions, no matter what your intentions are. |
2017-08-02T20:50:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/02/putin-global-menace/#comment-51103 |
| There is no way to stop this. Are we the global police? I don't see that we can be. But we need to be honest about what we are dealing with - and Putin is clearly a threat. | 2017-08-02T20:48:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/02/putin-global-menace/#comment-51102 |
| Yes, there is no doubt this will all be connected. The main focus of Brower is the warning that everything in Russia is perfectly corrupt and organized from the top. And that they will do anything. | 2017-08-02T14:48:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/02/putin-global-menace/#comment-51091 |
| Not exactly. But let's ditch the -isms anyway. :-) | 2017-07-31T18:41:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/31/never-ending-sequels/#comment-51073 |
| THAT is what I'm writing about. | 2017-07-31T18:41:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/31/never-ending-sequels/#comment-51072 |
| It's from the Depression, essentially, but it's been very addictive since then. | 2017-07-31T18:40:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/31/never-ending-sequels/#comment-51071 |
| Thank you, I will do that! |
2017-07-31T18:40:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/26/how-economics-fails/#comment-51070 |
| Thank you, that is a good quote and I am going to use that in People's Economics. I have been wondering how to introduce Freakanomics to my work and this is a good way to go about it. | 2017-07-31T14:12:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/26/how-economics-fails/#comment-51063 |
| Exactly. This is the company where workers in China went to the roof and threatened to jump off en masse if working conditions didn't improve. | 2017-07-31T14:12:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/31/never-ending-sequels/#comment-51062 |
| It will be wonderful! | 2017-07-25T20:58:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/24/schmidt-rathskeller/#comment-50956 |
| Thank you! | 2017-07-21T17:07:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/14/peoples-economics-the-fundraiser/#comment-50908 |
| Yes. It is a new era of exploration - of the universe, but more importantly of what it means to be human! | 2017-07-21T17:06:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/17/female-lead/#comment-50907 |
| I think I do have something. It's going along well. It may be more Democratic, yes, as I am one. But it's definitely a game-changer if you think it through. | 2017-07-21T14:59:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/19/stands-for-nuthin/#comment-50904 |
| Thank you for your support! | 2017-07-21T14:59:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/19/stands-for-nuthin/#comment-50902 |
| Yes, it's just more nonsense. Let's start with this: http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-uranium-russia-deal/ But no matter what, it's nothing compared to being a major money launderer for the Bratva. Especially when they wind up electing you president. There is simply no comparison here, and trying to make one is foolish. |
2017-07-21T14:59:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/21/frenzy/#comment-50901 |
| Thank you! | 2017-07-21T14:58:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/21/frenzy/#comment-50900 |
| Pretty much. No matter how you feel about the guy, the fact that this was lost is just strange. | 2017-07-21T14:57:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/21/frenzy/#comment-50899 |
| By all means, use anything you like as long as there is attribution. Thanks! | 2017-07-20T17:21:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50884 |
| To some extent, it's always been like this. We're just seeing it more clearly now. But yes, it is terribly disheartening. | 2017-07-10T16:11:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/10/character/#comment-50727 |
| It should be. See the above comment, there is a reason for it. Jargon is everywhere, but it is potentially dangerous. | 2017-07-05T14:01:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/05/isms/#comment-50673 |
| I'd appreciate your questions and additions. Seriously, if you could take the time it would surely make things better. Emanuel Macron - "We don't need new ideologies, we need new methods." |
2017-07-05T14:01:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/05/isms/#comment-50672 |
| Bingo. But we have to contend with this nonsense. Labels are an important way that people who don't really understand everything can be a part of the conversation. There's a yin and yang to that. On the one hand, in a representative democracy people do need to be engaged, even partially. On the other hand .... well, what I wrote about here. At this point, I have to agree with you. -isms are really just dangerous. |
2017-07-05T13:59:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/05/isms/#comment-50671 |
| Thanks! | 2017-07-03T19:11:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/03/independence/#comment-50650 |
| Thank you, all the best to you! | 2017-07-03T19:11:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/03/independence/#comment-50649 |
| Thanks! But I see a small mistake to correct ... :-) | 2017-07-03T19:11:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/03/independence/#comment-50648 |
| Thank you! | 2017-07-03T19:11:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/03/independence/#comment-50647 |
| Bingo. We could learn from that, IMHO! | 2017-07-03T19:10:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/30/150-years-of-canada/#comment-50646 |
| It will be good. Cheers! | 2017-07-03T19:10:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50645 |
| But it is good - the beer, too. :-) | 2017-07-03T19:10:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/30/150-years-of-canada/#comment-50644 |
| You win this round😃 | 2017-06-30T00:16:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50613 |
| Thank you! There is a big turning point in the growth of an organization or a business and this is just one of the things which feeds into it. Someone who is good at starting something may not be good at sustaining it. I don't know that this is the most important part of the differences in mindset but I suspect it is there. Thanks for your observation! | 2017-06-28T15:44:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50589 |
| Thanks! | 2017-06-28T15:43:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50588 |
| Not really, it's just a "thing". I was told about it and have always found it hilarious. How much faith do you have in Canadian Tire versus, say, the national government? :-) | 2017-06-28T15:43:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50587 |
| Yes! That isn't my main point, but I think it is a valid way of looking at it. My main point is that something new, which is based on people and delivered to people, has to be the answer. | 2017-06-26T16:18:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/26/how-economics-fails/#comment-50546 |
| I think I have less of a clue as to what it's for every day. | 2017-06-26T16:17:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/26/how-economics-fails/#comment-50545 |
| Thank you very much it was my pleasure to have you visit | 2017-06-26T01:27:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/21/47-irvine-park-the-spencer-house/#comment-50528 |
| Thanks. It is time. | 2017-06-21T15:25:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/21/47-irvine-park-the-spencer-house/#comment-50473 |
| It has to happen, for a lot of reasons. Time to reboot my life. | 2017-06-21T15:25:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/21/47-irvine-park-the-spencer-house/#comment-50472 |
| It is about the free market - what it takes to make and sustain one. I will heed your warning gladly. Thanks! | 2017-06-20T20:25:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/19/peoples-economics-the-campfire/#comment-50458 |
| Will do. I think roundtable discussion is at least called for - with regular, non-university folks. |
2017-06-20T20:24:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/19/peoples-economics-the-campfire/#comment-50457 |
| Thanks. I think philosophy is a good enough word. | 2017-06-20T20:24:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/19/peoples-economics-the-campfire/#comment-50456 |
| Any useful analysis of economics includes prediction. And that can't happen without understanding people. Simply understanding that it's about much more than numbers leads us to take people's choices into consideration, which is to say look at people. It changes your mind immediately as to what is important. Money doesn't make decisions. It is just a way of keeping score. |
2017-06-20T20:23:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/19/peoples-economics-the-campfire/#comment-50455 |
| Thank you! You have a good one there. It's one I'm loathe to make good use of for strange reasons. I need to get over it. | 2017-06-20T20:22:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/16/foresttrees-campfire/#comment-50454 |
| I think I have to. It's the calling. | 2017-06-16T20:27:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/16/foresttrees-campfire/#comment-50374 |
| Yes. But she thought she could pull this off. I think she is wrong. Let's see. | 2017-06-15T16:47:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/14/objectivity-is-dead-journalism-must-live/#comment-50343 |
| Only we, the consumers, can make it about more than our money. I hope I can provide tools for evaluating quality so that the free market can work more effectively. | 2017-06-15T16:46:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/14/objectivity-is-dead-journalism-must-live/#comment-50342 |
| I agree it isn't journalism because it will not enlighten. She also is going to be sucked into the next chapter of his story, which is a huge journalism no-no. | 2017-06-15T16:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/14/objectivity-is-dead-journalism-must-live/#comment-50341 |
| Let's see how she does. I predict that no one can take him on successfully in a setting devoid of context. Only the Sandy Hook parents can take him down. | 2017-06-15T16:45:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/14/objectivity-is-dead-journalism-must-live/#comment-50340 |
| It does need more. But perhaps not as much as you might think - Macron is indeed the point. | 2017-06-15T16:44:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/12/forward-america/#comment-50339 |
| I agree. The idea is to generate excitement with the shiny object of tech. It isn't enough by itself, so success early on with transforming lives will have to be reached. So your criticism is not only valid, it points to the primary goal - generate some real "Oprah moments". | 2017-06-15T16:43:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/12/forward-america/#comment-50338 |
| But I already knew all that! ;-) |
2017-06-09T18:07:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/09/progress-2/#comment-50256 |
| They may be. But it will be a slow process. | 2017-06-09T18:06:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/09/progress-2/#comment-50255 |
| Good point. I lost track of that one. Yeesh. | 2017-06-08T19:35:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/07/the-crazy-peaks/#comment-50241 |
| This is a tribal identity, first and foremost. I would say that a solid third or so on each side is completely intractable and unable to be reasonable. I do favor one side over the other, sure, but there is always room to argue. | 2017-06-08T19:34:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/07/the-crazy-peaks/#comment-50240 |
| Probably only once Democrats take it. See the "logic" above for an example as to how everyone can talk past each other and ignore the obvious mental deficiencies on "their side". | 2017-06-07T17:32:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/07/the-crazy-peaks/#comment-50227 |
| And this disconnected statement has to do with the topic at hand in what way? | 2017-06-07T17:31:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/07/the-crazy-peaks/#comment-50226 |
| His accent sounds so innocent most of the time. He's like a little kid commenting on how crazy the "adults" are. I really like him. | 2017-06-05T13:58:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/05/fun-with-funny/#comment-50198 |
| The fun ... :-) | 2017-06-05T13:58:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/05/fun-with-funny/#comment-50197 |
| Ha! Yes, well ... some of us are more like that than others .. :-) | 2017-06-02T20:44:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50145 |
| Thank you! |
2017-06-02T20:44:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50144 |
| Indeed. We have a lot of work to do. | 2017-06-02T20:44:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50143 |
| My pleasure, and thank you for reading! | 2017-06-02T15:02:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50137 |
| That is definitely Problem A. But I do think that in gender issues it's really a small minority who are genuinely sexist about this and are totally focused on maintaining their power and privilege. They are by far the most vocal, too, so they dominate all discussion. That has to change. | 2017-06-02T15:01:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50136 |
| Yes, the rapid change. What is expected of us in this new world? It's a lot less clear. Most men I know have been caught in a trap where they were trying to do the right thing but it came out wrong somehow. Little things like trying to be just the right level of supportive without dominating or "manspalining" are minefields. Yes, we need to be a culture of empowerment. None of us will get it right all the time, but we have to at least try - and keep an open dialogue. Language is crucial for this. As it stands now far too much of our gender language puts everything, absolutely everything, on women. That has to change. |
2017-06-02T15:00:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50135 |
| Yes, Women's Rights are Human Rights. I am attempting to engage in a conversation beyond where we usually do, however. Men need to be a part of this, especially the men who never speak up because their voices are a bit unsure. | 2017-06-02T14:57:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50134 |
| It is comical, at least from afar. Here it is tragedy. How anyone can believe this con artist is beyond me. | 2017-06-02T14:56:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50133 |
| Far too interesting! | 2017-06-02T14:55:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50132 |
| I certainly do, and thank you! | 2017-06-02T14:55:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/31/reason/#comment-50131 |
| Pretty much | 2017-06-02T14:55:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/31/reason/#comment-50130 |
| I hope so! | 2017-05-26T20:18:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/26/count-our-blessings/#comment-50032 |
| Thanks! | 2017-05-26T20:18:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/26/count-our-blessings/#comment-50031 |
| Something happen? | 2017-05-26T20:18:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/26/count-our-blessings/#comment-50030 |
| Thank you! | 2017-05-26T20:18:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50029 |
| It does seem like that's what this is all about. He gets to be the eternal martyr to millions. | 2017-05-26T20:18:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50028 |
| Thanks! | 2017-05-26T20:17:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50027 |
| Yes, this will get worse. | 2017-05-26T20:17:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50026 |
| It's hard to say anything from far away, but no one can say that this is healthy behavior. | 2017-05-26T20:17:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-50025 |
| Great stuff there, thank you! |
2017-05-26T20:16:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/01/a-north-american-story/#comment-50024 |
| Is that supposed to actually mean something? | 2017-05-24T01:36:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-49994 |
| Probably. if we do go in, it should be careful and measured - and with as much international backing as possible. | 2017-05-19T14:58:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/19/stumbling-into-war/#comment-49959 |
| Very much so. And I tell you, ISIS is not worth it. | 2017-05-19T13:55:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/19/stumbling-into-war/#comment-49957 |
| Major wars do start like this. I prefer WWI parallels but yes, that is what the problem is. | 2017-05-19T13:55:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/19/stumbling-into-war/#comment-49956 |
| That is indeed what I am worried about. |
2017-05-19T13:54:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/19/stumbling-into-war/#comment-49955 |
| Yes. And that might well be a good thing. Polarization is not suiting us as well. Our system requires consensus. | 2017-05-18T13:18:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49940 |
| It's all hard for us to imagine, but it appears real enough. | 2017-05-18T13:17:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49939 |
| I like it! A party based on respect! It's all about sitting down and talking things through. | 2017-05-17T15:08:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49932 |
| Thanks! | 2017-05-17T15:07:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49931 |
| Funny, I went right from this post to thinking about this as well. So we only have 3.5 dimensions in our perception of the universe - who's to say there aren't more? | 2017-05-17T15:07:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49930 |
| I may go a bit far, but I do think that in place of what anyone might call "political correctness" we should be insisting on "respect" and/or "decency". That is inherently formal, yes. | 2017-05-15T17:52:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/15/formali/#comment-49907 |
| At the heart of it, to me, is showing proper respect. The assumption that a stranger is your friend is really strange. It can be very insulting. | 2017-05-15T17:52:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/15/formali/#comment-49906 |
| I think we are moving that way. God save the Republic. | 2017-05-12T17:26:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/malaise/#comment-49860 |
| Allright, let's confront it this time. We are getting a do-over whether we like it or not. | 2017-05-12T17:25:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/malaise/#comment-49859 |
| Thank you. | 2017-05-12T17:25:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-49858 |
| We must speak with clarity and urgency. Nothing else matters. He is insane. This will get very dark but we can hold the candles up bravely. |
2017-05-12T17:25:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-49857 |
| You are right, there are two immediate problems. I think the first will resolve itself as the insanity becomes more clear - which is why I think we have to speak in clear, concise, language. He is insane. The second problem I am afraid we will have to deal with when we have to deal with it. |
2017-05-12T17:24:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-49856 |
| From the wikipedia article on insanity. I think we have met the legal definition. He cannot distinguish right from wrong because his understanding of reality is at best very limited: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insanity ----------------------------------------------- In United States criminal law, insanity may serve as an affirmative defense to criminal acts and thus does not need to negate an element of the prosecution's case such as general or specific intent.[11] Each U.S. state differs somewhat in its definition of insanity but most follow the guidelines of the Model Penal Code. All jurisdictions require a sanity evaluation to address the question first of whether or not the defendant has a mental illness. Most courts accept a major mental illness such as psychosis but will not accept the diagnosis of a personality disorder for the purposes of an insanity defense. The second question is whether the mental illness interfered with the defendant's ability to distinguish right from wrong. That is, did the defendant know that the alleged behavior was against the law at the time the offense was committed. Additionally, some jurisdictions add the question of whether or not the defendant was in control of their behavior at the time of the offense. For example, if the defendant was compelled by some aspect of their mental illness to commit the illegal act, the defendant could be evaluated as not in control of their behavior at the time of the offense. |
2017-05-12T17:22:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-49855 |
| I have to reluctantly agree with some of that. The instinct to put it all behind us was a good one. The problem was primarily a character flaw with Nixon, which is to say not a systemic national issue. Ford and Carter both did their best to put the "Imperial Presidency" behind us. That didn't take hold, sadly, and the whole thing came back with Reagan. That seems to be a major, critical problem. But there was much more to all of it than the character and the trappings. We did need a solid round of therapy, and a "truth and reconciliation" process would have done that. What about that Southern Strategy? Who are we as a people? How did this happen? None of those questions were answered. I do not fault Ford for his instincts. But the whole system was far too eager to pretend it never happened. We, as a people, were and still are unwilling to confront the demons which made Nixon possible. Now they made Trump. Something has to happen, I agree. |
2017-05-12T13:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/malaise/#comment-49848 |
| Not so far. | 2017-05-10T13:54:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/10/ensemble-la-monde/#comment-49820 |
| Probably. The word you are looking for is "defenestrated". :-) I've always wanted to use that word. |
2017-05-10T13:54:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/10/ensemble-la-monde/#comment-49819 |
| I think intelligence develops with cats, just as it does with humans. Tony always seemed smart, but with the years he has become genuinely wise at times. | 2017-05-09T16:15:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/08/cat-language/#comment-49812 |
| Thanks! | 2017-05-09T16:15:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/08/cat-language/#comment-49811 |
| Exactly. | 2017-05-05T13:36:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49773 |
| Obamacare was indeed half-assed at best. There is no doubt in my mind that Republicans could come up with a better system in one way or the other. But they aren't even trying. That's what bugs me. I'll go out on a limb here and say that we will NOT have a fix for this until everyone is engaged, Democrat and Republican alike. This doesn't get us anywhere. |
2017-05-05T13:36:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49772 |
| Though I am a Democrat, I had a lot of criticism of Obamacare. It was a compromise from the start and it never really got to the heart of the problem. It wasn't innovative at all. Having said that, this is worse. There is nothing about reality in this bill, it's just an attempt to push garbage through. |
2017-05-05T13:34:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49771 |
| We didn't even get the CBO estimates before they passed it on - that is simply unheard of with a major piece of legislation. That is worth dwelling on for a moment. It is about nothing more than not being embarrassed by their own inability . As a result, they embarrassed themselves further. |
2017-05-05T13:32:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49770 |
| The only other way to look at it is that they are deliberately trying to screw people. I'm going to say that they don't think about people long enough to consider this. | 2017-05-05T13:30:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49769 |
| You always have it, thanks! |
2017-05-05T13:30:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49768 |
| Thanks. The Swiss Franc has been over-valued for a solid 20 years now, predating the launch of the Euro. Currencies can become "stuck" and often do. | 2017-05-03T13:48:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/03/strong-dollar/#comment-49746 |
| I have long believed this, too. The Bush administration clearly wanted to defend the status of the Dollar, but I honestly think that a "soft landing" has to be prepared for us to get out of that. It has a cost. | 2017-05-03T13:47:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/03/strong-dollar/#comment-49745 |
| Thank you! | 2017-05-01T20:55:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/01/a-north-american-story/#comment-49736 |
| Thank you! | 2017-05-01T20:55:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/01/a-north-american-story/#comment-49735 |
| I don't want to dwell on that, but yes. Even at its worst, what we have going is better than a lot of places. We have room to start making improvement. | 2017-04-28T19:28:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/28/american-privilege/#comment-49718 |
| Bingo! It's one way or the other! | 2017-04-28T19:28:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/28/american-privilege/#comment-49717 |
| I do think that the US in general has turned to very simplistic answers - which do not compel us to step outside of our houses and cars and actually talk to each other. We see this everywhere. | 2017-04-24T13:33:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49697 |
| I apologize for offending you and making an assumption that you were like many of the atheists I know. My own inability aside, I hope you can see that I actually agree with you to a large extent and am equally horrified by what religion has been used for. I've written on that topic many times before, in fact. I do think you have an important message to get out into the world, but speaking/writing is one thing and listening/reading another. I can see that I did a bad job of crafting a message that can cut through the noise myself, but that is indeed my goal. I believe that there has to be a place for faith in a world based largely on reason - but our attitudes towards faith are definitely going to have to change considerably before that can come to pass. Still, I think it's not only desirable it's something that the vast majority of the "faithful" would like to see as well. |
2017-04-21T19:19:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49690 |
| "Then you must see the KKK as good Christians who simply mass murdered the black slaves. " Do you honestly believe this is my position? if so, how do you support this conclusion based on my words? If not, why did you say it? I see nothing productive in your words, which makes me wonder why you write them. I honestly do not understand why someone would say what you do because it certainly does not advance your position by winning over people to your side nor does it make friends across different opinions. So why do you write the things which you do? |
2017-04-21T18:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49688 |
| In this world I do think anything is possible. | 2017-04-21T17:30:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/21/crazy-gets-real/#comment-49684 |
| I know, it's crazy. But it's what should happen - assuming a more peaceful method can't be found. | 2017-04-21T17:29:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/21/crazy-gets-real/#comment-49683 |
| Yes, the last second launch would be the one downside. But they don't seem ready or able to do that. They may if we wait much longer. To me, cooperation between the US and China is essential for a lot of things. This is a good place to start. If it can be done more peacefully than by all means let's do it. But we shouldn't let this fester when we both know it is horrible and we both want it to change. |
2017-04-21T13:22:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/21/crazy-gets-real/#comment-49680 |
| Sorry, but I think this is just a refelction of this problem. I can see why you feel this way, given what people use religion for. But only a small minority actually see it this way and they have polluted things terribly. If all you knew of faith was a way that people felt connected and lived in peace you would probably still reject it, but not really care that much. And the vast majority of Christians in this nation do see their faith in those terms. Somehow, the violent minority dominates. That is terrible. |
2017-04-21T13:20:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49679 |
| Go ahead and rant, I can tell you still care. :-) Seriously, you mentioned "Dogma" and I concur that in a way that is a beautiful movie and a statement of faith. But it had to be expressed so cynically - that's the problem. | 2017-04-19T16:18:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49668 |
| It's amazing how much we demand voices shout before they can be heard. To me, that is the entire problem. | 2017-04-19T16:17:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49667 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-19T16:16:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49666 |
| You are anticipating what I was thinking about next, which is an examination of Christian thought as the majority of Christians from mainstream faiths understand it. Yes, Grace - universal love - is not just for Lutherans anymore. While I think it's obvious that politics is about interaction between people, current politics isn't exactly there yet. It's personal and defensive. It's not in a place where love can really be the guiding force. I wanted to start with a personal vision that has clarity and sense. I'm trying to define a space where interaction, vis a vis politics, has space for genuine grace. But yes, that's what has to come next. It should be obvious, I hope. A very conservative friend of mine recently acknowledged the concept of "privilege" and said that the goal is not to eliminate it but to extend it to everyone. That was without even directly accepting my definition of privilege, which is the benefit of the doubt. This all works for me. Let's start with the assumption that everyone else is at least decent and worthy of some sense of love, some reach of grace. It may take work sometimes, but it's happy work that is good for the soul and often pays off bigtime. And yes, let's encourage each other to be the best we can be and full of that grace which is all around us. It's hard to always be the best we can be, but with a little support it's easier. Not a crazy vision at all! |
2017-04-17T15:50:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/17/practical-in-a-way/#comment-49660 |
| I would think that everyone could reject a politics based on unhappiness right away. I want to start there. | 2017-04-17T15:43:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/17/practical-in-a-way/#comment-49659 |
| Thanks. Most people see themselve sin the middle and practical, yes. This piece will certainly bother a lot of my more progressive friends in that it is very disconnected and middle class. It's written to people who really just want to get along and don't have a strong interest in politics, as we know it. I'm focusing on connecting with the disconnected right now. That's what this is all about. I don't see any reason to radicalize them to get them involved in a movement. Most of them have good instincts, but just don't know what to do about it. The flurry of news confuses people and causes them to disengage. I'm trying to provide an antidote to that. And starting with, "Let's all just be happy" seems like a good place to begin. |
2017-04-17T15:43:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/17/practical-in-a-way/#comment-49658 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-14T19:47:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/14/divide-not-divide/#comment-49650 |
| I think you are right, and there are indeed Republicans who are objectively good people no matter how you look at it. We just disagree on details, is all. The good people, the sane people, the thinking people need to unite. We have to say, "Enough!" and start working things out to the best of our ability. That will take leadership, and that is indeed the hard part. But it has to happen - or we will decline into a third-rate nation very quickly. |
2017-04-14T19:47:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/14/divide-not-divide/#comment-49649 |
| If you believe in Star Trek: The Next Generation there is a way out. :-) The key is moving from a time of scarcity to a time of abundance. We already live in a time when there is enough food to feed the projected 10B people this planet will max out at. There is enough energy out there if we only learn how to capture it. Marx's utopia is indeed at hand, probably in my lifetime. Will it be utopia? Oh, Hell no! I grew up in Miami and I've seen what humans can do with paradise. But things like "money" are really a way of regulating scarce resources - and when scarcity disappears the dire need for money goes with it. Capital costs have been falling steady for 20 years for a good reason. I do think this has a chance of sorting itself out, and that ST:TNG is largely correct in many ways. We'll find a way to muck it up, sure, but I do think that abundance, not scarcity, is coming at us quickly. That will indeed change everything. Great comment, thank you! |
2017-04-14T19:46:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/12/the-wealth-of-nations/#comment-49648 |
| Yes, all around. It's been noted many times that the economy does better in Democratic administrations. Since correlation does not imply causality (see the story of the Star Spangled Banner as our national anthem) we have to be skeptical. I believe that in good times people are more receptive, expansive, and generous - and elect Democrats. My goal is always "A strong half-step back" which I describe as "Far enough back to have some perspective, but close enough to keep my hands dirty." I think Mike Rowe is precisely correct in that hard work is always the goal when up close, as opposed to whining, but it is the step back which often eludes us all. Especially in hard times. Leadership is always the key. People have to be coaxed back and given a strong vision. The entire developed world lacks clear vision right now, and it shows. Leadership is scared and unsure, but largely unwilling to admit it - because it's their job to lead into the future, yes? |
2017-04-14T19:41:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/14/divide-not-divide/#comment-49647 |
| All of that noise is only a distraction from what really matters. Until we get an actual vision and strategy in place the rest is just noise - and useful only to distract us from developing the appropriate strategy. | 2017-04-12T17:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/12/the-wealth-of-nations/#comment-49623 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-12T17:04:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/12/the-wealth-of-nations/#comment-49622 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-10T17:55:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/10/ten-years-on/#comment-49606 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-10T17:55:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/10/ten-years-on/#comment-49605 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-10T17:55:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/10/ten-years-on/#comment-49604 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-10T17:54:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/10/ten-years-on/#comment-49603 |
| Thanks! | 2017-04-10T17:54:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/07/a-new-low/#comment-49602 |
| There is definitely growth and expansion. Not just economically, but social roles are expanding all the time as are civil rights. That's what some people want to push back against as the world becomes more integrated. It's not all cyclical, so maybe I should change how I say this. Consider a simple addition between a straight line and a sine wave, which is to say y=x+sin(x): https://erikhare.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/xsinx.gif I hope this turns out. it gives you great bursts of gain followed by slight retreats. I think this is how the economy and social progress both work. I've been loathe to push this into that kind of equation, but it seems more accurate than I thought now that I've goofed with it. Does that work for you? |
2017-04-07T15:13:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/07/a-new-low/#comment-49586 |
| I hope it gives some context to our current problems. And yes, history is a long march of really stupid and crazy things happening. We all live with the consequences. | 2017-04-05T17:37:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/05/the-american-century/#comment-49573 |
| Over on facebook some of my friends are contemplating how the world would be different. Left and right they all agree - it was a mistake. But we can't undo it. | 2017-04-05T17:36:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/05/the-american-century/#comment-49572 |
| Thanks! | 2017-04-05T17:35:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/05/the-american-century/#comment-49571 |
| Thanks. It's one Hell of a way to end our imperialistic ambitions, isn't it? | 2017-04-05T17:35:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/05/the-american-century/#comment-49570 |
| Seven years ago, right at the bottom. Well, the economic bottom - the socio-political bottom we are still fathoming. | 2017-04-03T18:41:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/03/the-illusions-which-ennoble-us/#comment-49557 |
| Isn't it amazing? This was more or less at the low point of the economy, and this is what we were talking about. Me? I had to resort to Pushkin. :-) | 2017-04-03T14:20:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/03/the-illusions-which-ennoble-us/#comment-49555 |
| “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” – Kenneth Boulding |
2017-03-31T17:35:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49543 |
| There is a genuinely positive spin on this, which is to look at how a world based on abundance, not shortage, would operate. Star Trek operated in that world, so it's not too terribly hard to imagine. | 2017-03-31T17:33:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49541 |
| It is not. And that is sad - seven years on. | 2017-03-31T17:32:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49540 |
| Absolutely. Equity is the real issue. Of course, that is a good source of growth, at least in the short term. But it won't be satisfied until we put growth aside. | 2017-03-31T17:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49539 |
| We will change. We have to. And, in fact, I think we are - which is why we have such real pain in certain areas of the economy. | 2017-03-31T17:30:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49538 |
| Yes, it's all rather obvious. But in 2010 our policies were generally based on continuous growth. They still are, but less so. | 2017-03-31T17:29:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49537 |
| I used to have less to say! ;-) | 2017-03-29T13:45:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/29/politics-and-interest/#comment-49510 |
| Thank you. And it all is very reactionary. The true middle ground, if you ask me, is that a new world logically requires new institutions and a world coming closer together requires a lot of new, often more intrusive, relationships. It's up to all of us to figure out what we want. I followed up with a 10 year old piece decrying the apparent denial that we do indeed need to work things out together. That is a common response all around. | 2017-03-29T13:45:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/27/chaos-versus-order/#comment-49509 |
| Thank you! Yes, you do indeed have the right kind of questions - they make far more sense than anything dealing with "immigration" as a problem, for example. Putin? I don't think he is really in charge. I think he is the enforcer, not the Don. If it ever became necessary to take him out, they would. |
2017-03-27T19:36:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/27/chaos-versus-order/#comment-49486 |
| No, and No. :-) Seriously, part of the problem is that the disenfranchised have no idea how much they benefit from "The System" (really many systems) and believe that they can go it alone. | 2017-03-27T14:13:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/27/chaos-versus-order/#comment-49484 |
| That is what I am getting at. What is the common feature of all these groups? Why are they not more suspicious of Putin? The one thing everyone around the world has in common is an apparent belief that chaos is better than the current corrupt/thieving/despotic order. | 2017-03-27T14:12:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/27/chaos-versus-order/#comment-49483 |
| I agree completely. How we get there is another issue, however. | 2017-03-27T01:00:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/24/syria-degenerates/#comment-49480 |
| Each composer has their moods and their philosophies. Noe is as empowering as Bach's, if you ask me. I do consider it a faith. | 2017-03-20T14:42:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/20/js-bach-spiritual-guide/#comment-49451 |
| Thanks. It does take us pretty much to today, nine years later. | 2017-03-17T14:12:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/17/yes-not-again-2/#comment-49443 |
| Thank you. I always say that America is bigger than any of us can understand. :-) | 2017-03-15T13:43:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/15/st-patricks-day-5/#comment-49432 |
| It will be sad, but predictable. | 2017-03-10T17:18:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/10/good-seasonal-adjustment/#comment-49403 |
| The seasonal adjustment for ADP is not known, but it is probably the same as the BLS. Here is a graph of their adjustment. It's 1,600 thousand in February, meaning a blip of 100 thousand is 1/16th of the seasonal affect. Yes, I think that's all there is. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=cYJE |
2017-03-10T17:18:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/10/good-seasonal-adjustment/#comment-49402 |
| I don't think so. I think that raising will improve the sustainability - once we get through to the other side. | 2017-03-06T18:37:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/06/a-glance-at-the-dashboard/#comment-49381 |
| The main reason rates have to rise is to get us out of that spiral. It will be good in the long run, for sure. | 2017-03-06T18:36:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/06/a-glance-at-the-dashboard/#comment-49380 |
| Caffeinated. Mountain Dew. | 2017-03-03T20:34:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/03/ready-for-the-main-event/#comment-49354 |
| I agree, snacks would make this all better. | 2017-03-03T20:33:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/03/ready-for-the-main-event/#comment-49353 |
| Stocks have been on a tear for nearly a year. With interest rates rising we can expect a correction, yes. | 2017-03-02T02:42:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49338 |
| Yes, it almost certainly was. | 2017-03-02T02:41:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49337 |
| Not mine either. | 2017-03-02T02:41:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49336 |
| I think the disagreements between Congress and him will become much larger with time. | 2017-03-01T18:41:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49330 |
| Which, in this case, is fine by me. | 2017-03-01T18:41:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49329 |
| Amen. And we are destroying one Hell of a lot. | 2017-03-01T18:40:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49328 |
| Indeed. I don't think our nonsense is actually welcome anywhere. | 2017-02-28T17:52:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49320 |
| Yes, that is a ridiculous proposal all around, without a doubt. | 2017-02-28T17:52:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49319 |
| That is my concern all around. ISIS is a symptom of a much larger problem - as is fundamentalism generally. | 2017-02-28T17:51:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49318 |
| Absolutely. The reason I want to be precise about this is that I fear that our "allies" in the region are capable of creating an awful lot of mayhem on their own and that we have trained them to do so. Even if we started being more constructive and/or largely withdrew from the region I think our legacy is one of constant turmoil. | 2017-02-28T17:50:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49317 |
| The only solution is peace, yes. How much was the US involved? I don't mean to argue too much here, but there is a chance we weren't that involved - because we didn't have to be. Saudi Arabia and the gulf states did all the arming here, and I'm not sure we were involved in any way other than to let it happen. They do have the resources to do that. But if we were involved in the early arming we are indeed responsible and that was indeed the original sin that started all of this, yes. | 2017-02-27T19:23:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49308 |
| Thank you, and yes, it's just not our thing outside of being Global Policeman. | 2017-02-27T19:22:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49307 |
| Indeed. Thanks! | 2017-02-23T23:29:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/22/cyprus/#comment-49279 |
| It would be nice. As someone said, we'd be tweeting about movies and sports now. | 2017-02-23T23:28:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/22/cyprus/#comment-49278 |
| Thanks. I think it is indeed that simple. | 2017-02-21T20:04:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/20/why-we-write/#comment-49264 |
| Indeed. And hopefully they inspire the telling of another story and the process continues! | 2017-02-20T18:05:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/20/why-we-write/#comment-49258 |
| Exactly - he isn't good enough to be pathological. There is something seriously wrong here and I don't know exactly what. I don't see that it matters. We can't keep treating this like a normal situation - it is extraordinary in every way it can be. | 2017-02-20T18:04:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/17/an-immediate-crisis/#comment-49257 |
| Thank you! It has been fun. Quite a lot of words. :-) | 2017-02-20T18:03:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/20/why-we-write/#comment-49256 |
| Sometimes it really helps to get yourself organized. It's difficult to talk about big ideas entirely off the cuff - you need to have it down well. | 2017-02-20T18:03:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/20/why-we-write/#comment-49255 |
| There is a lot of diversion here. I really don't care about anyone not in power, so that is rather irrelevant. We have an immediate crisis which is what I'd like to deal with, please. | 2017-02-17T19:34:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/17/an-immediate-crisis/#comment-49237 |
| Thanks! | 2017-02-17T19:33:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/17/an-immediate-crisis/#comment-49236 |
| I have no idea at this time, but I think things will reconcile. They have to. | 2017-02-17T19:33:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/17/an-immediate-crisis/#comment-49235 |
| I am certain of it. The problem is how they get messed up by the circus. | 2017-02-15T15:55:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/15/firm-hand/#comment-49222 |
| We do, indeed. | 2017-02-15T15:54:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/15/firm-hand/#comment-49221 |
| Absolutely. We have to be in it for the long haul! | 2017-02-15T15:51:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/15/firm-hand/#comment-49218 |
| It does eventually. But while it is strengthening all of the goods we purchase become cheaper in dollar terms | 2017-02-15T04:59:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/15/firm-hand/#comment-49215 |
| Indeed, there is always more room. I think we have to make that point more and more - alongside the demonstration that there is a net benefit to everyone for immigration. | 2017-02-10T19:24:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/10/renew-america/#comment-49178 |
| This generally happens, but take a look at a picture of any city in the 1920s. You will see signs posted in German, Polish ... any number of languages. Most are in English, yes, but there are always some which are not. And that's fine. | 2017-02-10T19:23:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/10/renew-america/#comment-49177 |
| Oh, yes. I've been on this for a while. It just gets a little more true every year. :-) | 2017-02-09T21:12:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/08/new-line-of-thought/#comment-49164 |
| They have their own reasons, which we do need to understand to get past where we are now and move to a more understanding - and productive - place. | 2017-02-09T21:12:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/08/new-line-of-thought/#comment-49163 |
| More or less. It's a long standing position of Barataria that a depression started around 2000, which I call the "Managed Depression". Roughly the fifth such event in US history. | 2017-02-08T20:09:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/08/new-line-of-thought/#comment-49129 |
| :-) | 2017-02-08T20:08:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/06/national-brand/#comment-49128 |
| No, I do not have any way to do that. A separate survey is called for though - it would be nice. We could put a value on it. | 2017-02-08T20:08:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/06/national-brand/#comment-49127 |
| Thank you! Great post! | 2017-02-03T18:24:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-49067 |
| It is, indeed. I still say that in a representative democracy you get the government you deserve. But the response has been good and we have to take heart in that. | 2017-02-03T18:24:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/03/staying-positive/#comment-49066 |
| It is critical. Keep the faith! | 2017-02-03T18:23:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/03/staying-positive/#comment-49065 |
| Yes, but look around at how people are standing up with genuine kindness and humility. We are better, and we're showing it. | 2017-02-01T19:57:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49050 |
| Absolutely! | 2017-02-01T19:56:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49049 |
| Excellent! | 2017-02-01T19:56:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49048 |
| If he lifts the sanctions with an Executive Order, we'll know. I think he knew what was going on the whole time. | 2017-02-01T14:31:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49043 |
| Yes, they are rolling. It's not good at all. | 2017-02-01T14:30:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49042 |
| Yes, but let's be the ones to finish it. :-) Marching is good to the extent it gets us organized, but the real work is in the phone calls to Congress. |
2017-02-01T14:30:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49041 |
| Thank you. We all need to. | 2017-02-01T14:29:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49040 |
| Canada is now much bigger than the US - and I am not talking land area. Bless you all. | 2017-01-30T19:12:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49018 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-30T19:11:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49017 |
| Money is the one way to buy your way out of their control. It's a big protection racket, and our nation is a big mafia state - just like Russia. | 2017-01-30T19:11:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49016 |
| Exactly - the entire purpose is to instill fear so that it can feed on itself. We must resist fear more than anything else. | 2017-01-30T19:10:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49015 |
| Very much so. And I am sure we will see more of this. | 2017-01-30T19:10:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49014 |
| And so did our ancient alliance, thankfully. | 2017-01-30T19:10:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-49013 |
| Indeed, we never know what we'll wake up to. | 2017-01-30T19:09:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-49012 |
| That is my point - the most subversive thing ever on TV, if you ask me. | 2017-01-30T19:09:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/27/mary-tyler-moore/#comment-49011 |
| What a lovely tribute! | 2017-01-30T19:08:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/27/mary-tyler-moore/#comment-49010 |
| Indeed. A truly great person. | 2017-01-30T19:08:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/27/mary-tyler-moore/#comment-49009 |
| Thank you very much! | 2017-01-26T22:07:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48981 |
| There are probably more jobs in Auto Parts than there are in the actual assembly. And yes, I have no problem with Mexico having its share of jobs. The stability of Mexico is always going to be in our best interest. I don't care what you put at the border there will always be a net flow of people or Goods or something else across it regardless of what stupid laws you pass | 2017-01-26T01:32:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48967 |
| I am in favor of tariff protection against nations which are not at the same level we are, and I do think that every nation has to have its own sources of food, water, and energy (the necessities). Beyond that, however, I do favor free trade all around and believe that all developed nations must form a community and get along. | 2017-01-25T16:19:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48964 |
| Many times that is true. However, information is always the key to a well functioning marketplace, and there is without question a role for government in telling people what is going on. | 2017-01-25T16:16:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48963 |
| I think that is true as well. I'm not sure it ever really worked in the first place, however. | 2017-01-25T16:15:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48962 |
| Absolutely. And it is indeed not clear at all what policy can do about this. My hunch is that we have to focus on the social need for work, which is to say something like "make work" in the end. Subsidizing jobs is a bit much, but reducing overhead and making a point of taxing profit, not labor, would be a start. Still, it's all what Vonnegut wrote about in Player Piano some 60 years ago. https://erikhare.com/2014/08/27/player-piano/ |
2017-01-25T14:56:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48957 |
| A good point. Inflation does not exist generally, which has led to a lot of interesting behavior. Whatever we do here will be as automated as it can be - even the coke dispenser at Burger King is automated and self-service now, saving a worker here and there. | 2017-01-25T14:49:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48956 |
| I think we can have more manufacturing, yes, but we can't do it chasing these things. It's about the strength of the US Dollar and the cost of workers - which I would say is driven at least as much by overhead as wages. | 2017-01-25T14:48:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48955 |
| I think they are more interested in Guam. VERY interested. | 2017-01-25T14:47:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48954 |
| You are correct that a big gathering is a great organizing tool. It is a start, and this clearly energized people. It left them with the feeling that they are not alone, and there is both strength and comfort in numbers. Again, this is a time for tactics. It's not a truly progressive situation by any stretch, but it's what has to happen. |
2017-01-25T14:46:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48953 |
| I think it has to be regular, too. But let's not forget what Saul Alinsky* said, "A tactic which drags on becomes a drag." * Use of the name Saul Alinsky can legitimately be considered trolling on my part. Sue me. |
2017-01-23T18:15:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48935 |
| If that is all it accomplishes, we have accomplished a lot. We can't move forward without Hope first. I still say that we have to have clear goals and a path to reach them, but there is no doubt that energizing people is the first thing to do. |
2017-01-23T18:14:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48934 |
| I certainly hope so. But it is still not a strategy with a defined goal. If it gets us there, it is good. | 2017-01-23T18:04:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48930 |
| We are indeed the problem. A week ago, on MLK Day, I found this. I could never say it as well as he did in his Sermon to the Detroit Baptist Church on 28 Feb, 1954 "The trouble isn’t so much that we don’t know enough, but it’s as if we aren’t good enough. The trouble isn’t so much that our scientific genius lags behind, but our moral genius lags behind. The great problem facing modern man is that, that the means by which we live, have outdistanced the spiritual ends for which we live. So we find ourselves caught in a messed-up world. The problem is with man himself and man’s soul. We haven’t learned how to be just and honest and kind and true and loving. And that is the basis of our problem. The real problem is that through our scientific genius we’ve made of the world a neighborhood, but through our moral and spiritual genius we’ve failed to make of it a brotherhood. And the great danger facing us today is not so much the atomic bomb that was created by physical science. Not so much that atomic bomb that you can put in an aeroplane and drop on the heads of hundreds and thousands of people-as dangerous as that is. But the real danger confronting civilization today is that atomic bomb which lies in the hearts and souls of men, capable of exploding into the vilest of hate and into the most damaging selfishness. That’s the atomic bomb that we’ve got to fear today. Problem is with the men. Within the heart and the souls of men. That is the real basis of our problem." |
2017-01-23T18:04:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48929 |
| I understand. It's hard to just keep going sometimes | 2017-01-20T22:23:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/20/seeking-solace/#comment-48914 |
| Mostly nonsense. Sigh. | 2017-01-20T20:01:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/20/seeking-solace/#comment-48912 |
| Seek the wisdom ... like Bruce | 2017-01-20T19:59:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/20/seeking-solace/#comment-48911 |
| Amen | 2017-01-20T19:58:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/20/seeking-solace/#comment-48910 |
| Pretty much, yes. | 2017-01-18T18:14:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48892 |
| To some extent, I did. This is worse than I would have ever dreamed. | 2017-01-18T18:14:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48891 |
| We can always hope! | 2017-01-18T18:14:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48890 |
| "There's nothing wrong with America that can't be fixed by what is right with America." - Bill Clinton | 2017-01-18T18:14:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48889 |
| No, a complete incompetent and useful idiot to many crooks. | 2017-01-18T04:22:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48881 |
| I am expecting it dead-on cross between Andrew Jackson and Warren G Harding. | 2017-01-18T03:27:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48879 |
| OK. That would be great if it comes into being. Sounds like primarily a computer control issue, meaning we have everything in place to implement it. | 2017-01-17T22:28:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/16/50mpg-banned-in-the-us/#comment-48877 |
| So far, indeed. | 2017-01-17T22:27:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/11/bread-and-circuses/#comment-48876 |
| I am not a fan of CNG because of the amount of energy necessary to compress and ship it. Propane, liquifying under pressure, interest me more. BUt in general the move to a natural gas economy is interesting give the number or biofuel and other renewable sources for it which can come online in their own time. I wrote about this some time ago. So I'm willing to keep an eye on it, for sure. | 2017-01-17T22:27:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/16/50mpg-banned-in-the-us/#comment-48875 |
| Yes, people are definitely part of the machine there. | 2017-01-17T22:24:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48874 |
| A very good question! Sort of a human machine hybrid. You never really know, eh? | 2017-01-16T19:45:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48865 |
| I do believe that these cars are at least a useful interim technology. The ability to use biodiesel is a big benefit to me. BUT - I completely agree that the regulation we have now is a bit of a mystery and I do want to know a lot more myself. I can tell you that there is really no fix for the NOx emissions - you either live with it or you ban it. | 2017-01-16T19:44:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/16/50mpg-banned-in-the-us/#comment-48864 |
| I can buy that I don't have the best info. And I can see why the NOx, which can't be fixed, might be a reason to ban diesels. In fact, I really don't know why either the EU or US have the standards they do. What I can tell you is that in my nearly constant search for alternative technologies that might be interesting, as I don't think Lithium batteries are really the future, I always run into the standard for efficiency as being these diesels. My search includes the previously mentioned turbine electric hybrid and even magneto hydrodynamic plasma generators - both of which are interesting and both of which create a lot of NOx as they run very hot. And both are not yet ready to challenge these high mileage diesels. So I'm always ready to listen to arguments on how we balance the priorities for cleaner cars. This is one area that I really don't get, to be honest. What's really wrong with the US? Gasoline is too cheap and roads are heavily subsidized. That's about it to me. But if we fix that consumers will want higher mileage cars right away, as they did when gasoline was over $4 a gallon two years ago. And they will demand these cars. Then what? |
2017-01-16T19:43:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/16/50mpg-banned-in-the-us/#comment-48863 |
| Nope. Just smoke and mirrors. :-) |
2017-01-13T21:05:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48848 |
| Indeed. But I think they are more rare than we might think. Most people don't seem to realize how rude they are. | 2017-01-13T16:18:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48845 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-13T16:17:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48844 |
| Thank you! I appreciate your contributions to the world of sanity as well. | 2017-01-13T16:15:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48841 |
| Indeed, that seems to be happening. But unlike Rome, we are still a Republic. | 2017-01-12T14:22:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/11/bread-and-circuses/#comment-48834 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-12T14:22:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/11/bread-and-circuses/#comment-48833 |
| On that last point I think we can all agree. My concern is that worried about the screw up a great opportunity | 2017-01-09T23:37:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48811 |
| I am not against wholesale reform of corporate taxes. Generally, the lost revenue is made up with a VAT, which is very regressive - and I would be OK with even that if we had some mechanisms for making it less regressive. I do feel that a stock transaction tax would be even better to make up lost revenue. BUT - the main point remains that this is a delicate thing that should not be rushed through given how many ways corporate tax is screwed up and the resulting implications of these many ways being "fixed". |
2017-01-09T15:33:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48808 |
| Again, this isn't about Russia, scary as they are. And I'm not even sure it's for his buddies. This is a core Republican agenda item that is going to be pushed through now that they can. Thinking it through a bit, the moment the Fed starts really raising rates is the moment their independence is threatened. That will be another distraction - one that all thinking people need to be ready for. Sigh. |
2017-01-09T15:27:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48807 |
| OK, I'll stop being pissy. Sorry about that. My point is that while everyone frets about Russia this and that there is something more important at stake - an ideology which will be crammed through despite having obvious pitfalls in this current environment. And to put that on top of saying exactly the wrong things and giving the wrong impressions all over, ie that a trade war is about to break out, is just irresponsible. It's almost exactly the wrong thing to do in this delicate situation. That's what bothers me. And this is all getting lost in the noise about Russia etc. Trump is getting a relatively free hand in economic areas because he has a handy distraction. |
2017-01-09T15:21:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48804 |
| Is that honestly all you got from this? Can you actually read English? Please go away if you are that wedded to the main attraction of the circus. |
2017-01-09T01:24:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48801 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-09T01:14:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48798 |
| None of this has anything to do with what I said here. Not one bit. | 2017-01-09T01:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48797 |
| No, it isn't really a game, but that's what they will play. And it will kill people,. especially destroying the ACA. None of this is good, not at all. But it's what we are facing. |
2017-01-06T18:58:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/06/its-all-a-game/#comment-48783 |
| Yeah. This isn't going to be fun. | 2017-01-06T18:56:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/06/its-all-a-game/#comment-48781 |
| Not fun, eh? | 2017-01-06T18:56:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/06/its-all-a-game/#comment-48780 |
| Exactly! | 2017-01-04T18:45:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/04/economy-of-people/#comment-48760 |
| Change your mind instead? :-) The economy is nothing more than a series of values made into a system. Changing the values changes the system more than anything else. | 2017-01-04T18:45:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/04/economy-of-people/#comment-48759 |
| "All money is a matter of belief." - Adam Smith. "Money" as a concept is very different from "wealth". It doesn't really matter what we use to measure wealth, it matters how flows. And while the debt can be crippling, keep in mind that $2.8B of it, about 14%, is owned by the Federal Reserve. That is entirely fictional, in a sense. Government does not always serve the people, no, and that is a serious problem. But it's hardly a new problem if you ask me. |
2017-01-04T18:44:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/04/economy-of-people/#comment-48758 |
| Pope Francis is indeed tied to the Catholic view, so he can't go as gnostic as I do. That's fine with me because I don't see that point as being central. There is no doubt that Francis sees Jesus first and foremost as an example. His foot washing is the clearest demonstration of this. So there is no significant conflict here. Nor do I think there is a great conflict with other "People of the book", Jews and Moslems. While they do not have Jesus as a guide (Moslems only see him as an early prophet, so he is accessible at least) the message is substantially the same in many ways. The main difference is enough ritual to define every moment of the day, which I admit I find troubling. But even that I feel can be worked out with honest, open conversation. I'd like to have that. |
2017-01-02T16:39:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48740 |
| I don't want this to be a competition, but I see what you mean. And that is my point, in a sense. I have just enough Salvation Army in me to really believe that "You shall know the just by their deeds." I stand by that - regardless of how someone describes their faith or lack thereof. | 2017-01-02T16:35:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48739 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-02T16:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48738 |
| You are most welcome, and thank you for reading! | 2017-01-02T16:34:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48737 |
| I will do my best, and I hope you can help with it, too! | 2017-01-02T16:34:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48736 |
| Thank you for taking this to the next level! This piece was written for evangelizing, essentially - to the extent I am comfortable at all with doing that. I didn't want to get too philosophical or quote too many other people. The purpose was to speak from my heart and tell the world how I think. But it needs the underpinnings you provide - the background, the realization that others have looked at this issue in similar ways. Yes, I see all of this as part of a general "higher calling" which is the chakra above - the one I haven't talked about too much. The point is that we should at least have as an ideal a world where everyone is wise and kind and connected. We may not all achieve that, but it is worth trying. Standards are important, especially in cultural frames. Thank you again. This stands on its own. |
2017-01-02T16:33:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48735 |
| They will try, I fear. | 2016-12-30T18:45:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/30/may-you-live-in-interesting-times-2/#comment-48708 |
| Nothing surprising at all. But keep in mind that a new generation of economists and other experts is essential to bring the new thinking, so it does take a while to really sink in. Not only a new generation but a new gender and country of origin in many cases. This is what genuine "outsiders" look like. |
2016-12-30T18:44:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/30/may-you-live-in-interesting-times-2/#comment-48707 |
| Happy New Year! | 2016-12-30T01:05:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/30/may-you-live-in-interesting-times-2/#comment-48698 |
| This is as pessimistic as I get. You are right in that this is just the culmination of decades of work by those who want to enslave one way or the other. The problem is a simple one. Barataria is about my role as Sancho Panza, trying to keep the world out of trouble until it regains its sanity. The world has believed its own bullshit for far too long and honestly believes the windmills are dragons. I am not doing my job. The world is in more peril than it was when I started. We do need to hang in there. It will be hard. |
2016-12-29T22:46:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48694 |
| Thank you! It is time for a younger person to take the project over. I hope for recent immigrants, actually - people who can absorb the great Americana and be a part of it. That would be so very beautiful. | 2016-12-29T22:43:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48693 |
| There is a lot here to comment on. I want to start with this: "I can believe its more to do with a wilful lack of understanding of cultural differences and, a lack of appreciation for the shared cultural values and interests. " I accept this. The noise of a bizzy world has become deafening as it closes in around us. Far too many people have crawled into a fetal position with their hands over their ears to drown it all out. That's your crap news, fake news, fluffy news, and other plain gossip that simply drowns out anything useful at all. Very few of us are in any position to make sense of what is happening. There's no reason to think that we ever will be able to intellectually, either. Like previous steps in modernity, such as the Industrial Revolution, there has to be a period of normalization where we all gradually accept it. Coping mechanisms come from the guts and the heart, not the head. Politics is indeed about how power is organized. Our systems in the developed free world are based on the premise that most of it has to be distributed. The responsibility that comes with that is overwhelming at times. A retreat into authoritarianism is actually rather rational in a way - just tell us what to do and keep us safe, please. It's far too confusing to do anything else. You raise many, many good points. All in all I think the main effect is simply overwhelming. |
2016-12-29T22:42:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48692 |
| Thank you! | 2016-12-29T22:36:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48691 |
| I gladly indict everyone. There is plenty of blame to go around. | 2016-12-29T22:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48690 |
| Yet we retain the mechanisms to do something about it - as soon as we stop believing the bullshit. As soon as we stop believing our own bullshit. I do not disagree with you. But the operative word in what you said is near the top - "We". That's what is in extra large fancy print at the top of the Constitution itself, after all. Until we start thinking like that we are indeed doomed, IMHO. |
2016-12-29T22:35:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48689 |
| I'm OK. This needs to happen. This is too much house for me and it's too expensive. | 2016-12-27T17:03:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48654 |
| A little of both. It's too big for me to maintain. | 2016-12-27T17:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48653 |
| I am planning to not leave the West End. I really don't have a plan yet, though. | 2016-12-27T17:02:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48652 |
| For $650k you could! :-) |
2016-12-27T17:02:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48651 |
| I guess many people do these days. Christmas comes in turns for many of us. Merry Christmas to you, Anna! Thank you very much for your kind words of support all year. It's been my pleasure all around to have you as a reader and active contributor. You really do make me a better thinker, writer, and person. |
2016-12-23T20:18:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/23/christmas-every-day/#comment-48631 |
| Thank you! | 2016-12-23T20:16:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/23/christmas-every-day/#comment-48630 |
| Thank you! To you as well! | 2016-12-21T14:50:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/21/solstice-greetings/#comment-48621 |
| We will get through this. | 2016-12-21T14:50:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/21/solstice-greetings/#comment-48620 |
| Precisely. Blocking all change is an inherently "conservative" position. It is not clear to me at all that we can or should do this. It is clearly effective, and we also clearly have a system designed to block nearly all change that is not backed by a broad consensus. Therefore, we have an inherently conservative (small "c") form of government (which is also not reactionary). Having said that, this is going to have a broad appeal among many Americans who are wary of change but still favor a broad array of basic rights including women's rights, choice, marriage equity, et cetera. I am not ready to say, "We must do all this, and do it now!" I will say that this component should probably be present. |
2016-12-19T21:16:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48610 |
| We do indeed. It has to be the first goal. |
2016-12-19T20:42:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48608 |
| A distinct possibility, yes. | 2016-12-19T20:42:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48607 |
| Tip O'Neill, Speaker of the House. But he credited his Dad with the orginal statement. | 2016-12-19T20:42:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48606 |
| Thank you! The methods were shown to work, for sure. | 2016-12-19T20:41:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48605 |
| I have a link at the top. | 2016-12-19T20:41:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48604 |
| No, we won't get anything done for sure, and we can only hope to minimize the damage. There is still nothing actually good to look forward to, no. | 2016-12-16T14:52:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/16/dealing-with-crazy/#comment-48584 |
| You may be right, I may be crazy, But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for. - William Martin Joel | 2016-12-16T14:29:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/16/dealing-with-crazy/#comment-48582 |
| It's OK, I can handle it. But thank you! | 2016-12-16T14:27:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48580 |
| There is no doubt that some of this crazy has infiltrated our "leadership" for decades. Some of it we can see and already know how to combat. The intensity is going to go way up, however. And let's not forget how much we have been losing this War on Reality. | 2016-12-16T14:26:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/16/dealing-with-crazy/#comment-48579 |
| Avoidance isn't going to work, no. But I think we can pick our battles and ignore the crazy diversionary ones carefully. That's what I would advise. How effective will it be? We will have to see. We're going to be picking up new skills here. |
2016-12-16T14:25:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/16/dealing-with-crazy/#comment-48578 |
| I don't mean to disagree with you too vehemently, but just about anyone other than Trump represents a reduced chance of WWIII starting. I consider that to be a good thing. Yes, we have sunk that low. |
2016-12-14T22:26:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48568 |
| Yes, all of this is ridiculous. | 2016-12-14T20:13:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48566 |
| It's all about the latter. If that is what goes down, I support it. | 2016-12-14T17:02:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48564 |
| Thank you! | 2016-12-14T15:07:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48561 |
| None of this will please anyone no matter how it shakes out at this point. | 2016-12-14T15:07:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48560 |
| A few are standing up to him - McCain, Graham are the leaders. The rest may have to choose who they follow. | 2016-12-14T15:06:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48559 |
| Yes, I hear you. I have kids who are 16 and 20 and I keep thinking about the world I've passed on to them. I owe them more than this. | 2016-12-13T18:08:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48554 |
| It's so sad. This is indeed fascism. | 2016-12-13T18:07:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48553 |
| Yes. I have met a few of them. There are always a few. They can't be the standard for everything, however. | 2016-12-13T16:08:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48550 |
| It's worth a try. I wonder if people can imagine what would happen if things really did break down completely? | 2016-12-13T16:07:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48549 |
| Thanks! |
2016-12-13T16:07:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48548 |
| Yes, it has. And if we have to start from the ground up rebuilding first faith in civic life and then civics itself, we have to. I'm not sure what I can add at this point but it's clear to me that we have to start over, to re-invent the wheel. Seems really stupid, but fine - it's round folks, carry on. | 2016-12-13T16:07:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48547 |
| Yes, by all means. Thank you! | 2016-12-12T04:02:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48535 |
| Yes, it's hardly news. But that's the point. We have a confirmation that what everyone has "known" for years is indeed true. | 2016-12-08T23:28:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/07/bloated-pentagon-revealed/#comment-48520 |
| Exactly. Under competent leadership I see nothing but upside. There are tremendous resources available to correct any and all problems, and even a light hand on the tiller is probably going to produce good times at this point. But Trump is more likely to do damage than any good. That's the fear we have right now. |
2016-12-05T15:39:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/05/how-about-that-economy/#comment-48506 |
| Good way to look at it. It seems as though the "free market" reset itself in about 8 years or so, a total of 17 from top to bottom. That is a very long time and a lot of suffering. | 2016-12-05T15:38:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/05/how-about-that-economy/#comment-48505 |
| I understand that people are struggling, but what are we going to actually do about it? We needed a "New Deal" about 8 years ago, but politics prevented it. You could argue, as I have, that Obama should have been more forceful about creating a massive program of desperately needed public works, et cetera, and I would be with you. But it wasn't going to happen in this political climate. So we wound up with a slow climb out of the Depression instead of critical action. And we're almost there. And people's attitudes are indeed about to change. Do I think that a free-market alone solution was the best? Absolutely not. But as long as this is what people vote for, it's what we'll have. And it's going ... well, it's going slowly but it will get there in a few more years. |
2016-12-05T14:31:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/05/how-about-that-economy/#comment-48502 |
| That was the point! :-) Thank you! | 2016-12-02T18:33:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/02/tao/#comment-48484 |
| Thanks! | 2016-12-02T18:32:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/02/tao/#comment-48483 |
| Thanks! | 2016-12-02T18:32:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/02/tao/#comment-48482 |
| Thank you, too! It's a completely different way of looking at the world. While it doesn't explain everything in the Chinese outlook on life, it's a key starting place. | 2016-12-02T18:32:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/02/tao/#comment-48481 |
| Yes. They range from incompetent to ideologues. Yuck. | 2016-12-01T21:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48470 |
| Yes, there are still some boundaries. I agree that Trump will cross a few lines on Republicans and be replaced as soon as they can. | 2016-12-01T21:17:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48469 |
| This is very unlikely, I would say one in a million. But with the antics we have so far I would think some Electors will not be impressed. | 2016-11-30T14:29:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48457 |
| Yes. Anything is indeed possible. | 2016-11-30T14:28:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48456 |
| All around. It's not good for anyone. | 2016-11-30T14:28:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48455 |
| You're good, speak your mind. Always welcome. My problem right now is a simple one - I can't think of anything enlightening to say. I think there is evidence of a lot of fraud and possibly hacking in several states. The rise of the White Power groups is absolutely chilling. My first thought is that we need to prepare for anything, up to and including forming left-wing militias. Then again, I have a large number of personal problems right now, which I'll get into later. So what should I say? I'm waiting for some clarity, to be honest. I don't know yet. Meanwhile, say what you want. I appreciate it. |
2016-11-23T16:58:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/23/2016-holiday-shopping-forecast/#comment-48411 |
| I have heard some projecting a big downturn as consumer confidence takes a hit. I am watching for this. Keep in mind that there is a solid month or two lag in any statistics. | 2016-11-23T16:33:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/23/2016-holiday-shopping-forecast/#comment-48409 |
| I see your point. It is an annual feature, and I did not get around to it yet. This is probably the deadest day of the year for me, so I stuffed it here. Actually, Friday is a little worse, but I want to say something more important as we enter the holiday season. |
2016-11-23T16:32:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/23/2016-holiday-shopping-forecast/#comment-48408 |
| Exactly! Basic values. Things we need to be reminded of every day. Kindness, respect, things like that. | 2016-11-22T16:16:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/21/statuary/#comment-48396 |
| I can't imagine we are anywhere near a resolution | 2016-11-19T00:10:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-48375 |
| Thank you! | 2016-11-18T16:12:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/18/why-thanksgiving-is-in-november/#comment-48371 |
| Thank you. Indeed, Turkey fears the Kurds. Perhaps they should, in fact, given what they have done to them and how effective the Peshmerga has proven to be. I don't think the Kurds see themselves as Turkey's enemy, at least not right now. They are far too practical to pick a fight they don't need to. | 2016-11-18T00:20:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-48364 |
| I guess I would leave it at this - we can't say that Sanders would have beaten Trump because we didn't get to see what was in the Republican oppo file. We know it was a big file, however. | 2016-11-18T00:18:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48363 |
| I'll start with where we disagree- Sanders. He may have the right message, but he was a flawed messenger. The Repubs would have slaughtered him with his past record as a socialist. I do not think that we can say he would have fared better. On the rest, well, we agree. This could not be a referendum on Trump and trying to make it one was stupid. No one in a position of power seems to understand the basic disconnect with ordinary working class people. Where the Hell is Carville and "It's the Economy, Stupid" ??? |
2016-11-16T18:44:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48357 |
| This is very disturbing all around, especially since it's happened twice in five elections. | 2016-11-16T14:39:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48354 |
| Apparently | 2016-11-16T14:38:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48353 |
| Mine as well. :-) | 2016-11-16T14:23:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48350 |
| Hello! :-) | 2016-11-16T14:22:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48349 |
| This is shocking - a lack of a ground game will always kill us. And the lack of organizing between elections is indeed a sign of death. |
2016-11-16T14:22:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48348 |
| Thank you! | 2016-11-15T14:09:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/14/black-friday-3/#comment-48334 |
| Amen. I agree to get dirty. We are all dirty already, might as well make work of it. | 2016-11-14T20:33:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48331 |
| We just need to get the message out - Keep Black Friday to one day only. | 2016-11-14T20:33:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/14/black-friday-3/#comment-48330 |
| I agree. If we learned one thing from the Nazis, it is this. | 2016-11-11T15:55:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/11/where-do-we-go-from-here/#comment-48317 |
| We always seem to. But some will struggle much more than others. | 2016-11-11T15:55:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/11/where-do-we-go-from-here/#comment-48316 |
| The world is changing rapidly, for a lot of reasons. Older people who woke up in a different world one day tend to be fearful and resentful. To the young, this is the only world they have ever known. And it is up to them to make it their world one day. We need them to have more control over this world, IMHO. They have the perspective to navigate it and the decisions made today will guide where it goes. Some elder wisdom to guide them is good, of course, but it should be tempered with the knowledge that it's not really our world anymore. |
2016-11-11T15:54:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/11/where-do-we-go-from-here/#comment-48315 |
| Good list. To me, it's all about generational change now. That's what we need. | 2016-11-11T00:54:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/11/where-do-we-go-from-here/#comment-48308 |
| I hope so. It's all I've got. | 2016-11-09T21:14:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48299 |
| That is what bothers me the most, yes. | 2016-11-09T20:53:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48297 |
| Amen, brother. | 2016-11-09T20:53:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48296 |
| For me, he has. I feel like I have nothing left. | 2016-11-09T20:52:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48295 |
| I honestly have no idea. I used to think I did, but apparently I was wrong. | 2016-11-09T15:09:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48291 |
| Apparently, Americans want to burn it all down. So we will watch it all burn. | 2016-11-09T14:11:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48288 |
| It does, yes. This could be a big blowout. | 2016-11-08T17:18:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48284 |
| Indeed. | 2016-11-08T17:16:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48282 |
| It's almost time, we're at the last mile of a terrible marathon. There's a reason we're sick and tired. :-) | 2016-11-07T16:45:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48279 |
| I think that prediction has already come true. :-) | 2016-11-07T16:44:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48278 |
| Thank you very much! Hoping for the best all around. | 2016-11-07T16:44:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48277 |
| Current prediction is that we'll all be fine. Hopefully I won't have to refine that as it gets closer. :-) | 2016-11-07T16:43:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48276 |
| That's what we can all hope for! | 2016-11-07T16:43:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48275 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-11-04T14:41:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/03/patriotism-2/#comment-48254 |
| A lot of people agree with you, I think. | 2016-11-04T13:42:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/04/powerpoint-is-a-blast/#comment-48252 |
| It has its place. It just gets outside of that very quickly. | 2016-11-04T13:41:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/04/powerpoint-is-a-blast/#comment-48251 |
| It's not good for anyone! | 2016-11-04T13:26:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/04/powerpoint-is-a-blast/#comment-48248 |
| Yes, it's about doing their damned job at some point. That's what we want elected officials to do. | 2016-11-03T13:33:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/31/unity-2/#comment-48245 |
| GDP would have been a bit different all the way through. That big swing down then up in 2008 would have been a lot smoother, for one. Today it would be higher. My guess is that the inventory number should change with GDP overall. When it doesn't that might mean something, but it doesn't seem to predict but lag so it's not all that useful. |
2016-11-02T16:37:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/02/gdp-catches-up/#comment-48239 |
| Thanks! | 2016-11-02T13:15:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/02/gdp-catches-up/#comment-48232 |
| The Pound has taken an incredible beating, which would normally be good for a manufacturing nation. Britain is not. I don't see this going anywhere good as investment really dries up. The key to me is risk - the UK is full of risk right now, meaning investors will mainly look elsewhere unless there is a premium for them. It will keep hurting for years. | 2016-11-02T13:15:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/02/gdp-catches-up/#comment-48231 |
| Thank you! | 2016-11-02T13:13:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/02/gdp-catches-up/#comment-48230 |
| Me, neither. This is the first election that I just want over. | 2016-10-31T14:36:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/31/unity-2/#comment-48218 |
| I'm talking about you and I, buddy. Leadership from the bottom! | 2016-10-31T14:36:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/31/unity-2/#comment-48217 |
| I love it, too! 23 years ago I saw it in the theater on opening night. :-) | 2016-10-28T17:27:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/28/the-nightmare-before-christmas-2/#comment-48204 |
| Thanks! | 2016-10-28T17:26:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/28/the-nightmare-before-christmas-2/#comment-48203 |
| No, he isn't. Certainly not going after Paul Ryan. I am pleased to be wrong about that part, yes. | 2016-10-26T14:21:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/26/how-an-election-is-actually-won/#comment-48193 |
| The name Trump will be synonymous with "Loser" when this is over. I think that part will go well enough. | 2016-10-26T14:21:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/26/how-an-election-is-actually-won/#comment-48192 |
| If Clinton is essentially the incumbent the goal is to embarrass the administration. It may require some follow-up. There is also the possibility of real damage to the infrastructure which winds up suppressing turnout, thus favoring Republicans, but I would put the odds of that happening at less than 1 in a million. Still, if the Russians think it's higher they might act. I agree that while it's might suspicious against Putin it really doesn't look like anything that's going to work to any real degree. So this may be a measure of this desperation, which frankly I think is what we are seeing in all the other actions. Keep in mind that at $50/bbl oil prices are so low that Russia is running out of money fast. http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/14/news/economy/russia-budget-oil-price/ |
2016-10-24T18:56:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/24/under-attack-from-who-and-why/#comment-48181 |
| Very good find, thank you! | 2016-10-24T18:50:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/24/under-attack-from-who-and-why/#comment-48180 |
| It's entirely possible that these cameras on the BotNet were far too easy to hack. No one changes the password on them, for one thing. We shouldn't jump to conclusions - but we also should not let our guard down as this attack is still underway. | 2016-10-24T18:50:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/24/under-attack-from-who-and-why/#comment-48179 |
| Right? Biggest blow-out and a major yawner if you only look at the top, biggest change if it runs down the ballot. Excitement is where you find it, eh? (No, I'm not talking about baseball ... but I could be, yes? :-) ) |
2016-10-24T18:32:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48175 |
| I have not read that - I will check it out, thanks! This post is all about my usual routine, which is to be all about context. The reports I've seen so far have been really thin on context such as how the systems work, etc. My big concern, however, is that the "Russian Context" is easily over-played without any evidence. As many of you know I am a major Putinophobe and will blame him for just about anything this side of inclement weather. So take it all with a grain of salt. But someone did this, we know, and it does look like it is targeting the center of the US internet. The odds of it being a real strike on the nation are pretty high. Russians? Can't say yet. But who else is a suspect? |
2016-10-24T18:31:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/24/under-attack-from-who-and-why/#comment-48174 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-10-24T18:28:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-48173 |
| Yes, I said nothing about State legislatures - which we need by 2020 to influence redistricting. I guess I am less interested in those now, but in the future they will be the biggest deal. | 2016-10-24T18:27:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48172 |
| My pleasure! | 2016-10-24T18:26:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48171 |
| I love the practical nature of your statement - "scared into working across party lines". Amen! We should never want one party to absolutely rule everything - even my party, much as I like us! Our system works best when everyone is engaged and working to make things better. If a good scare will do it, then let's scare 'em! | 2016-10-24T18:26:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48170 |
| That is indeed the most likely scenario. But it is worth watching, if for no other reason than there is nothing else worth watching. :-) | 2016-10-21T17:25:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48151 |
| It would be a whole new world, yes! | 2016-10-21T16:29:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48149 |
| There is a lot to crow about, and I do think that the Democrats in general have done a lousy job of it. I find it all very reprehensible. Things are, overall, not bad. The glass is half full. |
2016-10-19T19:26:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/19/oil-finds-a-range/#comment-48138 |
| Eventually, it works. :-) This is exactly correct - we have a range where everything is in balance and it appears to be stable. But there were two years of turmoil as the market responded to the increase in production from the US and then Iran plus responded to decreased demand caused by the high prices. The question is whether demand will increase at this level. It all happens very gradually, so we don't know yet. |
2016-10-19T19:25:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/19/oil-finds-a-range/#comment-48137 |
| That is a good plan, IMHO. | 2016-10-18T20:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48122 |
| That is the kind of thing that I would emphasize - more about how to get along with other cultures than anything. | 2016-10-18T20:15:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/17/donde-esta-el-bano/#comment-48121 |
| That's ma job! :-) | 2016-10-14T21:15:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48101 |
| I am also counting on this. I am presuming that Ryan will still be speaker, but look at how he is defending his own principles and people first. He will also want to work to get things done, I believe. | 2016-10-14T21:14:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48100 |
| Thank you! We have to work at it, nothing is automatic. But it can happen. | 2016-10-14T21:13:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48099 |
| You are always welcome to reblog! Thank you! | 2016-10-14T21:13:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48098 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-10-14T21:13:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48097 |
| A good point. It's not what we as a society learn as much as what each person learns. One less may be that politics really is awful. I hope isn't the lesson most people take from this. More people being turned off will only make things worse. | 2016-10-14T21:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48096 |
| That is what I hope can happen. My guess is that in the silence immediately after the election there will be a time to change the subject to something more positive. | 2016-10-14T21:11:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48095 |
| Yes. But one that takes down everything. | 2016-10-12T15:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/12/gotterdamerung/#comment-48075 |
| Exactly. Notice that his main go-to insult is "weak". He's called Ryan that, among others. To Trump, Ryan "lacks the will" to paraphrase it into Hitler speech. He doesn't deserve the great gift of Trump. And so he must be punished. We have seen this all before. Trump is just a thin shadow of Hitler in so many ways. |
2016-10-12T13:40:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/12/gotterdamerung/#comment-48073 |
| Yes, indeed. The aftermath of this horrible election will tell us what lasting effects we have, however. | 2016-10-11T20:54:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48066 |
| NBC was going to release the tape, or so they say, but the Washington Post got a leaked copy of it and beat them by a few hours. Whether or not he knew he was being recorded is an issue. However, this was part of his role on The Apprentice, as he was hanging around with Billy Bush. So I think consent is hardly an issue here, and it has not been raised (I checked). |
2016-10-10T23:26:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48059 |
| It is increasingly looking like that will indeed happen. I still wonder about the House. The generic congressional ballot has the Dems up +7, which may be enough to take it. We'll see. | 2016-10-10T23:24:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48058 |
| He is indeed a pig. | 2016-10-10T23:23:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48057 |
| I can't get much worse. My guess is that this is the low point. I expect younger people to start demanding better, for one. | 2016-10-10T23:23:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48056 |
| You are most welcome. I do try to lead by example to the best of my ability. I was inspired, and so I feel a need to inspire in return. | 2016-10-10T23:22:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48055 |
| You are most welcome. We have to keep saying it until it actually happens, like a daily affirmation. | 2016-10-07T20:43:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/23/why-we-say-black-lives-matter/#comment-48037 |
| I have no idea. Honestly, it seems like a bad idea every way you look at it. | 2016-10-07T20:42:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/07/twitter-must-die-and-it-will/#comment-48036 |
| I think the vast majority of people will agree with you. | 2016-10-07T20:41:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/07/twitter-must-die-and-it-will/#comment-48035 |
| It is. That is correct, yes? :-) | 2016-10-06T23:04:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/05/the-final-countdown/#comment-48026 |
| We are just turning the corner. There is a big hole to climb out of, and I think we can say we are just poking our heads out, like a gopher. Looking around, it doesn't seem that great. | 2016-10-06T23:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/05/the-final-countdown/#comment-48025 |
| Not good. The ADP report came in with a weak gain of 154k. That isn't a good sign. We will see. | 2016-10-05T22:42:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/05/the-final-countdown/#comment-48017 |
| I agree, but it won't matter. Remember Lloyd Bentsen beating up Dan Quayle in 1988? Didn't change a thing. | 2016-10-05T22:41:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/05/the-final-countdown/#comment-48016 |
| Amen. Far too many people have learned far too well | 2016-10-04T23:04:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-48006 |
| Indeed, we are. It's our world if we want to make it. We are the dreamers of dreams. :-) |
2016-10-03T22:40:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/03/patriotism-2/#comment-47998 |
| Thanks! | 2016-10-03T22:39:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/03/patriotism-2/#comment-47997 |
| It is, indeed! Good catch! I decided to not emphasize that point. But yes, Africans beat Europeans on their own turf. :-) I decided to de-emphasize race generally in this piece. That was a strange decision, but I want my readers to focus as broadly as possible on the problem. Race has a way of narrowing the focus. If I was talking to a group of people I would start with race and pan out harder. But yes, the two problems with institutional racism are institutions and racism. They can be separated - and must be for us to tackle their different needs in their own way. Command of the field allows that separation, so command and maneuverability are the first key steps, IMHO. |
2016-09-30T15:41:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-47973 |
| Thanks! But this is about tactics, not strategy. :-) Seriously, the two meld together in a complex battlefield. The strategy is one of encapsulation, the tactics are flanking. That may be a bit too subtle a point to matter, though. | 2016-09-30T15:38:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-47972 |
| Yes, that is the key. Someone has to be the ones who turn down the volume and give everyone time to think. That someone has to be the ones in charge, the ones with the badges and guns. I will look that up, thanks! |
2016-09-30T15:37:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-47971 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-09-30T15:36:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-47970 |
| Amen. :-) | 2016-09-28T20:23:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/28/confidence-is-back/#comment-47948 |
| Indeed. It will soon be time to look for initial projections for holiday shopping. Just don't break out the Christmas music yet, please. :-) | 2016-09-28T16:52:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/28/confidence-is-back/#comment-47945 |
| Indeed, here is a link: swo8.wordpress.com/2016/09/28/game-of-chess-by-l-martel-3/ A fraud is always revealed - usually to themselves first. :-) |
2016-09-28T16:47:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/28/confidence-is-back/#comment-47943 |
| If the debate was on how we fill up the glass more, I am sure we would have some interesting ideas from ALL sides. I would like that debate. Is there something wrong now? Sure, a lot is wrong. A do-nothing Congress has not responded to the changes in how people work or how large corporations have become global, not national. There is a lot that should be done and a lot to go wrong if we don't respond. I'm with you on that. |
2016-09-28T14:48:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/28/confidence-is-back/#comment-47940 |
| It will all be over soon enough. :-) | 2016-09-28T01:20:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/26/debate-i-wanna-rebate/#comment-47936 |
| I think she did, too! :-) | 2016-09-28T01:20:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/26/debate-i-wanna-rebate/#comment-47935 |
| Definitely the way to go in this election. Yeesh. | 2016-09-28T01:20:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/26/debate-i-wanna-rebate/#comment-47934 |
| Good point - are we getting serious about it or not? That is probably the right question. Quick anger favors Trump, seriousness favors Clinton. | 2016-09-21T15:13:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/21/terror-sinks-in/#comment-47883 |
| Polls suggest that a slim majority favor Clinton on this. You would think it should be higher, but we'll take it. | 2016-09-21T15:12:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/21/terror-sinks-in/#comment-47882 |
| That is true of a lot of our world today :-) | 2016-09-19T23:33:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/19/formal-e-mail-tips-concepts/#comment-47858 |
| You don't want to be too cold, but yes. It's important to get to the point if you want someone to respond and take action. You have to tell them what you want in plain English. | 2016-09-19T16:42:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/19/formal-e-mail-tips-concepts/#comment-47850 |
| It is still important, especially for business. There is no better way to manage messages. If anything, it is more important in the case described here - a replacement for the formal business letter. | 2016-09-19T16:41:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/19/formal-e-mail-tips-concepts/#comment-47849 |
| The market for consumer services seems to be moving this way no matter what, so I think we'll see this recognized. People really hate banks! | 2016-09-16T21:00:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/16/simply-too-big/#comment-47832 |
| Ego has to play a role, for sure. But decades of learning doesn't wring out of those at the top overnight. There has to be competition from smaller banks nipping at their heals before a "fast and limber" approach proves itself. | 2016-09-16T15:47:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/16/simply-too-big/#comment-47829 |
| Things don't happen overnight. Wall Street is doing something about it -avoiding their stocks. That limits their ability to raise more capital and gives an advantage to more profitable banks. The free market does work, but really only in the long run. In the short run major changes, such as this, take time to absorb. |
2016-09-16T15:46:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/16/simply-too-big/#comment-47828 |
| Let's see how this plays out. He may get more pressure to do the same now that Clinton has released her report. | 2016-09-14T21:39:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47811 |
| He was 69, which is to say a year older than Clinton and a year younger than Trump. Not really that old, actually. | 2016-09-14T16:15:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47809 |
| I do think this is a legitimate issue, for sure, but I think it's been answered or will be answered once she is over pneumonia. And we will move on. | 2016-09-14T16:14:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47808 |
| It is not. She is the presumptive President at this time and it is very reasonable to make sure she is up to it. I do think she gets extra scrutiny as a woman, yes, but this issue is not one of those times. I hope we can move on from this once the question appears answered - which for me is about now. |
2016-09-14T16:14:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47807 |
| I don't doubt that new restrictions would calm things down a little, which would be good. If we do come up with sensible, simple things which help us get some sense of "well ordered" to this strange "militia" we've created all the better. And weapons have indeed changed. But do I think it's going to make a night and day kind of change by itself? No. There has to be more, there has to be a cultural part of this. And that will take time and a lot of honest, open discussion. So let's start now! Thanks for your comments! |
2016-09-14T16:12:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-47805 |
| Checked out your piece, good stuff! Her health is a topic, but we should deal with it an move on, IMHO. This stuff always gets silly. | 2016-09-14T16:09:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47804 |
| Just about, yes. | 2016-09-12T19:40:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/12/shipping-meltdown-or-not/#comment-47792 |
| That seems to be true. But why? I have no idea. | 2016-09-12T19:40:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/12/shipping-meltdown-or-not/#comment-47791 |
| Usually, yes | 2016-09-12T19:39:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/12/shipping-meltdown-or-not/#comment-47790 |
| Yup. Professionalizing everything has ruined ... well, just about everything. |
2016-09-12T19:39:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/12/shipping-meltdown-or-not/#comment-47789 |
| True enough. But the competition might change that. | 2016-09-09T19:01:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/09/another-way/#comment-47770 |
| Look to the UK. No one is elected to Parliament with a majority of the vote, and everyone just accepts that. There is also Instant Runoff Voting, but I would favor a runoff election two weeks later if you really want to have a majority. Lastly, I could see states changing their Senate to be elected state-wide by party slate - so that if Libertarians get 9% of the vote they get 9% of the seats. |
2016-09-09T18:59:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/09/another-way/#comment-47769 |
| It has always been that way, yes. But a group more along the lines of Gary Johnson isn't going to be like that. And certainly if they are fully engaged in conversation they won't put up with that crap. To me there is only one solution to the "corruption" in Washington - and I put it in quotes because you can and should take it broadly enough to mean otherwise legitimate organizing like ALEC and other groups which wind up with way too much influence. To me, that solution has to be engagement and conversation. An engaged population won't put up with anyone having too much influence for any reason. We can pass laws on campaign contributions, etc, but in the end the only real solution is a functioning Democratic Republic. That's why I wrote this. It gives me great hope. I'm not saying Libertarians are the answer, I'm saying people really do understand the answer. It will take more than two functioning parties - and we're down to one right now. Maybe 3/4. |
2016-09-09T15:18:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/09/another-way/#comment-47765 |
| If they do provide an important service I agree with you. I think Capella does, for one. But the whole industry could benefit from more regulation which makes consumers more aware of what they are getting into and builds confidence. | 2016-09-07T16:35:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47756 |
| A very good point. We can devise a whole system that also recruits students from the unemployment rolls. I'm not saying that would work for everyone, but it could work for a lot of people. It would work especially well for a 4-6 week certification program - basically, pass this and you have a job. | 2016-09-07T14:44:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47754 |
| I think that in this market, given the amount of structure, there is no way a for-profit will ever distinguish itself that much from a non-profit. Quality, sure, but that would be about the only way it could. I think the concept of a degree in "X" skillset is getting very silly. Certifications of some kind which are more flexible and quick make more sense - on top of a "Liberal Arts" kind of degree with maybe some general breakdown - eg, Engineering, Sciences, etc. A PhD in Chemistry I can handle. A BA/BS? I dunno. |
2016-09-07T01:08:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47744 |
| I haven't written about it in a long time, but yes - the main reason manufacturing jobs were so good is that they offered a lot of upward mobility. Looking back on it, however, I can't see any reason why that was necessarily true - but it certainly was traditional. Loyalty used to be a big thing in every corporation, but it was especially true in manufacturing. I honestly don't know why. duPont makes me angry. They are indeed dead. The European chemical companies are not doing all that well, either, but they aren't dead. It's something. The move to specialties as good profit centers has helped a lot. I don't think workers move between companies because they would have to move to a new city to do so - and Germans don't usually move. But I do think they could if there was an opening, yes. They have a system based partially on seniority but also based on qualifications for skill as set up by the unions. You achieve a rank based on what you know. Very German. |
2016-09-07T00:58:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47742 |
| Start with the last part - Hey, I had to disclose! It didn't seem good without it up front! OK, as for the rest of it. Yes! The model we use is that everything falls on the worker. So we get some of that to be picked up by the government but where is the On the Job Training? I've written about this before and feel that it simply HAS to make a come-back. Looking at this news item strictly in isolation, however, we can see why. The model that implies skills are acquired from an educational institution which responds to the market really doesn't work. It may work if we start talking about certifications rather than actual degrees, but as it stands now the model is broken no matter how you look at it. I'm not against private for-profit education. But I will admit that it's not living up to a major part of its promise when it comes to what ITT was offering. If you think such schools should be closed I'll tell you this - the free market is about to close them because consumer confidence is waning fast. The industry has to nearly re-invent itself if it's going to remain - and it really does need more regulation, or at least better regulation, if it's going to restore confidence. Is there a role for purely vocational education? I'd say yes, there is. Not as a centerpiece of all education, but there is a role for it. Is this the best way to do it? Doesn't look like it is now. |
2016-09-07T00:48:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47739 |
| The principle is that a for-profit model is more responsive and can give people the skills they need. That doesn't work anywhere near as well as advertised and may be impossible given how these institutions have to be regulated. If there is a way out of it which demonstrates the value of for-profits I'm all for it. And I certainly value the education I received at Carnegie, although it was entirely paid for on scholarship. But as it stands now the only way we have to really regulate them is with a very blunt instrument. That doesn't do anyone any good. |
2016-09-07T00:38:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47737 |
| I love working this stuff through in discussion and debate. :-) | 2016-09-05T16:27:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47725 |
| Thank you! And cheers to the workingman, the members of the Unions that built our nation! | 2016-09-05T16:25:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47723 |
| This is a take-off from my previous predictions that: 1) There will be a labor shortage in the near future, and 2) Companies are going to keep demanding higher skill levels. We have already seen both trends forming around us. If they accelerate, as we can expect, we will be in a condition that has always created labor unions. Always. It simply seems inevitable. |
2016-09-05T16:24:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47722 |
| Good point. They will, and that might well be the spark that makes educated professionals see the need for some kind of organization - call it a Guild, a Union, a Professional Association, whatever. | 2016-09-05T16:23:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47721 |
| Demographics is destiny. The wave of retirement is real and it will take nearly 10M workers out of the pool in the next 4 years. There are about 7 million who might replace them. That's 2% of the total workforce, pushing headline unemployment under 3%. It is never under 3% - 4% is pretty much full employment. | 2016-09-02T18:23:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/02/labor-day-2016/#comment-47695 |
| It will be a few years before this happens, and I do expect when it is first proposed there will be a massive backlash, yes. But this will come. | 2016-09-02T15:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/02/labor-day-2016/#comment-47693 |
| A good point, but unlike individuals they exist solely for semi-public function. I have always thought that taxing corporations, not people, made the most sense as I don't see how corporations have an inherent right to privacy. | 2016-08-31T16:12:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/31/irelands-big-payday/#comment-47672 |
| That is one point worth taking from this, but as you said Apple customers do take on a "cult-like" insulation from all of this. I hope it does cost Apple in a big way - simply so that it sets an example. That could be a source of pressure for us to at least attempt to harmonize our corporate tax laws with the rest of the world. | 2016-08-31T16:11:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/31/irelands-big-payday/#comment-47671 |
| Thank you! | 2016-08-29T16:40:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/29/racists-anonymous/#comment-47649 |
| Thank you! I'm trying to do what I can to spread positive examples and ideas. | 2016-08-29T14:54:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/29/racists-anonymous/#comment-47645 |
| Thanks. But we all know it's true, yes? Whatever we can do to work through this we have to do. Seriously, "there are many paths to enlightenment" wasn't as good? :-) | 2016-08-29T14:54:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/29/racists-anonymous/#comment-47644 |
| Very much so. | 2016-08-29T14:47:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47641 |
| Absolutely! Very few people are able to embrace real empathy and real empowerment. I have seen white liberals act and speak in very patronizing ways - it's infuriating. There is a lot to get past everywhere. Racism is at the core of our nation. | 2016-08-29T14:47:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/29/racists-anonymous/#comment-47640 |
| Absolutely! As I mentioned here, they are the only ones anyone can rely on. It makes Turkey very nervous, but they are, as I noted previously, earning their nationhood the hard way. | 2016-08-29T14:35:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47637 |
| I'm a big Fed supporter generally, as they are one of the few truly functional parts of our "government" (they aren't really government) But YES, they must do this. They have to re-focus and be very open about it. | 2016-08-27T16:15:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/26/a-new-fed/#comment-47622 |
| Right now, I'd say 3 of 12 Presidents plus the Chair favor serious attention to outreach and transparency. it's really just a start, but a good one. | 2016-08-27T15:46:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/26/a-new-fed/#comment-47620 |
| Generally, you do have a point. There's always Margaret Thatcher, however. :-) | 2016-08-27T15:45:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/26/a-new-fed/#comment-47619 |
| That's how I see it. I would like them to be more open if they have more power, of course. | 2016-08-27T15:44:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/26/a-new-fed/#comment-47618 |
| Yes, absolutely! And the bond market is behind this with so much money going to T-Bills in search of a "safe haven". We have a 30yr bond rate of 2.25% and a growth in GDP of over 3% (no inflation) - that's basically free money by any measure. We have no excuse for not doing what the bond market says we should be doing - infrastructure. It's desperately needed, as are pushes for clean energy (via a prize system?) and so on. | 2016-08-24T17:56:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/24/productivity-down-blame-the-kids/#comment-47594 |
| Year over year, oil is if anything up. So that effect has been accounted for. Thanks! | 2016-08-24T15:39:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/24/productivity-down-blame-the-kids/#comment-47591 |
| Eventually job growth will slow, yes, but for now we are doing well. This is an example of how dumb it gets, yes. | 2016-08-24T15:39:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/24/productivity-down-blame-the-kids/#comment-47590 |
| I still think that trade deals really don't influence anything but the margins. There is definitely a general belief that there isn't anything good to invest in at this time, which is terrible for the economy. It's the one thing holding us back, and it seems to be a matter of faith more than anything else. | 2016-08-24T15:38:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/24/productivity-down-blame-the-kids/#comment-47589 |
| Yes, them. Sanders got a completely raw deal. My best guess is that he wasn't sensational enough, but the lack of reporting on Sanders was appalling. | 2016-08-23T13:46:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/22/is-objectivity-dead/#comment-47579 |
| Good point, but we are in a very bad place right now. We have to get out of it as soon as the Trump threat is over, if not sooner. And yes, we will have his people around for a long time - does that mean we're constantly going to be at war? That doesn't bode well for a better future, as I do believe we are indeed "Stronger Together". | 2016-08-22T17:39:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/22/is-objectivity-dead/#comment-47574 |
| I don't want thing to return to the "good old days", but i do hope we can try again to find a way to at least engage in conversation. Most of the "news" I see attempt to be definitive, which is rather ridiculous. And arrogant. Barataria has to make a strong statement, but I do try to pose everything as a question - invite people to be a part of the conversation. That is always the best part. Language along the lines of "it seems as though" and peppering each piece with questions are how I ride that line between definitive, strong prose that's not too mushy and an a call for an open dialogue. You can tell me how it works. I'm always working on refining it. |
2016-08-22T15:29:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/22/is-objectivity-dead/#comment-47572 |
| To me, it's all about transparency. I do feel that everyone, even those of us who try to be objective (count me 50% on that, please) have a perspective we start from. Stating that up front makes all the difference. You talk about the UK stations and their shared audience which they compete for. A clear mission statement would clarify this - "We at ITV strive to inform and entertain, particularly the key demographic of 25-40 year old men". No, they will never be that blunt, but you get the idea. We'd know what they are doing. :-) |
2016-08-22T15:26:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/22/is-objectivity-dead/#comment-47571 |
| It will be, indeed. They will probably say it was all planned / rigged. | 2016-08-17T14:17:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47534 |
| They are both bad people, but I do agree with you. This is very far from the reboot we need, and the potential problems it all stirs up with Turkey, vis a vis the Kurdish question, are very dangerous. But yes, a foreign policy based on bogeymen is not a real policy but an electoral strategy. | 2016-08-17T14:16:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47533 |
| The torment of the Syrian people is far from over. | 2016-08-17T14:15:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47532 |
| Even putting Da'ish on the run will be a good thing to crow about for the election. So something will happen, yes. | 2016-08-17T14:15:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47531 |
| Don't get me wrong, if we do indeed wipe Isis Isis off the face of the Earth I cannot imagine it helping the people of Syria one bit, let alone making any kind of significant change to the region. But we have set up the situation so that Isis is all the US public cares about and it is actually possible for the administration to declare Victory there. | 2016-08-17T03:46:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47525 |
| Mostly. But elections do indeed come from the guts, so you can't stay in the head all the time. | 2016-08-15T23:07:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/15/facts-or-feelings/#comment-47516 |
| It is nice. When it happens, that is. :-) | 2016-08-15T23:07:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/15/facts-or-feelings/#comment-47515 |
| Good point. The urgency of something that is fact-based can trigger a more gut reaction in some people than in others. |
2016-08-15T15:19:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/15/facts-or-feelings/#comment-47512 |
| This is what I think we need to be talking about. I'm not saying I have all the answers, I'm saying we do have a great opportunity. This is one vision of what it might develop into. We do have to deal with Iran - no matter what it means. But I'm not sure we have to get rid of al Assad, to be honest. Is that really our purvey? Should we be messing around with other nations in the middle of a civil war? |
2016-08-14T16:09:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/12/resetting-the-middle-east/#comment-47504 |
| I have been looking around and I don't see any other place where we are as deeply engaged and mucking around with forces we don't understand - getting ourselves in over our head and not able to swim our way out of. The world really is at peace, mostly, by comparison to past eras. We are much more responsible than we have been previously - we stayed out of Ukraine, we don't screw around with South America, we're not anywhere in Africa. We're not doing anything too stupid by comparison - except in the Middle East. | 2016-08-14T16:03:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/12/resetting-the-middle-east/#comment-47503 |
| Many points: 1) If this is at least a starting point for a civilized, decent foreign policy in the region, how on earth do we get there? Does this mean we throw our "partners" in the Gulf under the bus? Any normalizing with Iran will sure feel like it to them - and to Israel, of course. It will be hard to steer this course - and Erdogan is not making it any easier. 2) You could easily call what I've written "self righteous", and I accept that. "Freedom" is a loaded term all around - does that mean completely Western? I don't think so, but there are basic human rights we have to insist on. Doing so invariably becomes self righteous, at least when we've done it in the past. This point alone is worth a lot of soul-searching, IMHO. 3) Fracking. Yuck. I am convinced it can be done cleanly - but it will take a LOT of regulation. Also, it's important to note that the majority of wells in the US are done by "wildcatters" - small operators, often funded by junk bonds, who are throwing the dice really hard. If it all fails they walk away and declare bankruptcy, screwing everyone. "Big Oil" would actually be preferable in that it would be much harder for them to get away with what the small operators do - it would be much easier to regulate and police. I dunno. I am convinced that it can be done cleanly and safely, but we are very much not there yet. It will take a concerted effort to get there. I really appreciate your comments here. I wish we had discussions like this on CNN et cetera rather than the nonsense we have. |
2016-08-14T15:58:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/12/resetting-the-middle-east/#comment-47502 |
| Let's not forget Defense Contractors. There is a lot to be countered to get us to this point, absolutely, but there is no reason we cannot now. I am trying to flesh out what a foreign policy based on promoting peace and freedom would look like. I don't think it's gotten the attention it deserves. There are a lot of details here, and a lot depends on who is Secretary of State. But this is what it might look like. I want us to start thinking about it more than anything. |
2016-08-12T14:14:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/12/resetting-the-middle-east/#comment-47487 |
| Thanks! There is a lot of good out there. It's just leveraging it to something better! | 2016-08-10T19:07:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/10/energy-independence-and-beyond/#comment-47474 |
| It's never even been raised. I think that with the right commitment to reconfiguring as a rapid deployment force, we could easily lose most of our forward bases. That's worth over $100B per year. | 2016-08-10T19:07:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/10/energy-independence-and-beyond/#comment-47473 |
| As long as we don't screw it up, good things could happen, yes. | 2016-08-10T19:06:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/10/energy-independence-and-beyond/#comment-47472 |
| No, we haven't gotten there. But we could if we aren't careful - and I fear Europe is getting there. | 2016-08-09T15:55:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/08/player-piano-2/#comment-47454 |
| The glass is half full. Sure, I'd say that, I'm an optimist. You want to say it's half empty, well, let's talk. Just don't try to tell me it's completely empty! :-) | 2016-08-08T15:25:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/08/player-piano-2/#comment-47447 |
| Thank you! |
2016-08-05T16:42:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/05/happy-as-a-pig-in-something/#comment-47429 |
| I am familiar with many translations of the Tao Te Ching (old spelling) and they do vary a lot. It's clear to me that "ten thousand things" means something like "everything" but is more poetic, for example. | 2016-08-05T13:33:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/05/happy-as-a-pig-in-something/#comment-47426 |
| It would be fun to compare idioms with a non-European language speaker - I'm sure nothing is actually translatable. It's the cat's pajamas! (or is that just plain old by now?) | 2016-08-05T01:23:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/05/happy-as-a-pig-in-something/#comment-47421 |
| Indeed! Although I remember a Belgian I worked with once said, "You know the old expression - when the cat's away the mice are dancing." That rhymes in Flemish, something like "Wan de katze gegangen de mause sind tanzen." (I really don't know Flemish and my memory of it gets mixed up with German, so it's just close). Anyways, some of them translate to European cultures, which is really funny! |
2016-08-05T00:56:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/05/happy-as-a-pig-in-something/#comment-47419 |
| Thank you very much! |
2016-08-04T19:19:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47417 |
| Thank you! Yes, it is indeed. | 2016-08-03T19:15:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47409 |
| Of course, this is just one part of it - and I think the hard part. A friend just called for a minimum income for all, for example, and peteybee here talked about reducing hours. Both are good. | 2016-08-03T15:41:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47405 |
| So far, the median age at retirement is still 65. It seems to be mostly working out. Not sure what quality of life people have but it's still the same age. | 2016-08-03T15:40:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47404 |
| Yes. You are right, where we might have a little time here other nations have no time to lose. | 2016-08-03T14:06:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47400 |
| Definitely - but first we have to have workers productive enough to make that possible. Or some system for really sharing the wealth. Or possibly both. But as surely as automation is coming, the possibility of a divided society - into those who are part of it and those who aren't - is what we have to avoid. Then we can talk about reducing hours. https://erikhare.com/2014/08/27/player-piano/ |
2016-08-03T03:41:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47394 |
| There is a lot more to say about waves and progress, but it's very easy to get really far into the weeds with this. I struggle with that all the time. | 2016-08-02T15:41:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/01/progress-and-history/#comment-47381 |
| It's not dead it's resting. Pining for the fjords. :-) Seriously, I didn't say it was dead, I agreed with the IMF paper which said it was oversold. And the way it was oversold was by not recognizing the effects of business cycles - which is what I centered on in this piece on progressive eras. https://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/ What it comes down to is this: A rising tide still lifts all ships, but when the tide goes out and the ship hits the rocks, guess who is first in the lifeboats? Income inequality is a strong function of business cycles for a lot of reason. There's more to cycles than that, of course, and I'm trying very hard to not turn into one of those cranks who says that K-Waves explain everything. But they sure explain a lot. Is Neoliberalism dead? The term describes a re-invention of "Liberalism" as the term was used in the late 19th/early 20th Centries - a term still used by The Economist. What I see is a Neo-Neoliberalism, another wave of new thought interjected into the notion that free markets do work and economic freedom is closely tied to political freedom. I still buy that. I suspect that this wave of progressivism will include that, given the general skepticism of big government. But it's not coming together very quickly as a philosophy. |
2016-08-01T16:29:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/01/progress-and-history/#comment-47374 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-08-01T16:23:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/01/progress-and-history/#comment-47373 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-08-01T15:29:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/01/progress-and-history/#comment-47370 |
| Time will tell. But we have been moving this direction, steadily, for six years now. The easiest call to make is "Trends will continue". There is nothing about this call that is "out there". | 2016-07-29T14:32:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/29/spring-is-coming/#comment-47342 |
| No, I don't buy that. I would much prefer if we didn't have nuclear weapons as close as Turkey, but the Baltic States joined NATO because of bad history and Putin saying that he intends to reconstitute the USSR. I do not see that NATO has provoked anything here. | 2016-07-27T16:23:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47321 |
| I deliberately avoided it, yes. I want to see proof he really sold out this nation before I do. Do I think the evidence shows that he either has or plans to? Oh, yes. | 2016-07-27T16:21:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47320 |
| That's possible, but I think that what counts is that Trump isn't very bright and can be bought rather easily. | 2016-07-27T16:20:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47318 |
| Every nation has to have some concept of the rule of law. That's what the EU was trying to push for in Ukraine when everything exploded. Russia will fight that to the end because they are run by a lawless mafia. | 2016-07-27T16:19:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47317 |
| Not at all. Even one large rogue nation hurts us all. | 2016-07-27T15:40:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47312 |
| In a certain sense, the current state of Russia is what happens when those kind of forces take over the state. There is essentially nothing left. | 2016-07-27T14:11:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47309 |
| But we gotta try. We don't want rational people to be influenced by this poison. If the nonsense goes unanswered, they may. | 2016-07-27T00:01:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47302 |
| It's up to all of us to counter it and tell the truth. We have to have truth on our side! | 2016-07-25T22:25:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47298 |
| Absolutely! | 2016-07-25T22:24:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47297 |
| Thank you very much! I do appreciate your re-blogs, they are a high compliment! | 2016-07-25T18:18:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47291 |
| I haven't heard anything surrounding those where facts are twisted somehow, so if you have examples of "facts" which don't smell right supporting something let me know. What I've heard on that sort of stuff is more garden variety political, e.g. "Redistributing wealth never works" or "Chopping up big banks will lead to higher rates for (something)." | 2016-07-25T03:54:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47287 |
| I consider Piketty essentially a Keynesian in terms of this debate, although his solutions are a bit more permanent than Keynesians usually talk about. But it's about keeping up demand in a nice, steady flow by sharing the wealth more evenly. Piketty says little to nothing about debt, which I think is a failure on his part. I do think business cycles are the most important thing to consider overall. A rising tide still lifts all ships, but when the ship hits the rocks at low tide who are the first on the lifeboats? That is what seems to crush working people, IMHO. Understanding just what business cycles are and what causes them is important. |
2016-07-22T16:35:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/22/three-views-of-the-economy/#comment-47268 |
| It's still out there. This is a set-up for something coming out of the Federal Reserve. They are getting more Keynesian all the time, but not without a fight. | 2016-07-22T14:04:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/22/three-views-of-the-economy/#comment-47266 |
| Very good, I do agree we need a higher inflation target. I just don't know how we get the velocity up where it has to be to achieve that. But yes, all around, inflation is a good thing in small amounts. | 2016-07-22T14:03:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/22/three-views-of-the-economy/#comment-47265 |
| With Putin in the mix, of course. The perennial enemy of Turkey. | 2016-07-20T19:09:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/20/erdogans-power-grab/#comment-47254 |
| Thank you! | 2016-07-20T19:08:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/20/erdogans-power-grab/#comment-47253 |
| Will this get out into the world, however? Pence was clearly forced on Trump by the same people who drafted that horrible platform. I don't understand it at all. Ideological purity is definitely more important to them than winning - or governing, for that matter. And they are really evil, yes - and I hate to use that word. I have yet to find words to describe just how I feel about this. | 2016-07-18T16:04:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47244 |
| Letting him talk is a good strategy, yes. The more he hogs the press the more we see who he is. The Iraq War part of the Lesley Stahl interview was the most telling to me - Pence gets a pass? Hmmmm .... | 2016-07-18T15:49:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47242 |
| Peace to everyone. Peace to us all. Way too much violence lately. | 2016-07-18T15:15:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47239 |
| Indeed. I would love to say they don't matter anymore and we can stop having them. I've always hated them, but after St Paul hosted the 2008 convention I now see them as an atrocity. "Free Speech Zone" ??? What a crime that is all around. And they do attract all the crazies so as much as I want to blame the police state, always out in full force, there is a lot of blame to go around. Just horrible things. | 2016-07-18T15:15:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47238 |
| Yes, the potential for violence is the big wild card. Ug. Thank yoU! | 2016-07-18T15:13:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47236 |
| I think he will be on the ticket now for sure. But yes, I suppose we have to expect a surprise. How do we do that? :-) | 2016-07-18T15:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47235 |
| I hope it's quiet, to be honest. I would not want to see dead bodies no matter how much it helps "my side". | 2016-07-18T15:12:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47234 |
| It would be novel, yes? :-) | 2016-07-15T17:28:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/15/forcing-investment/#comment-47223 |
| Exactly. I didn't want to dwell on it this time around, as we've done a lot, but the American Society for Civil Engineers puts the infrastructure deficit at $3.6 trillion. We might be able to close half of that by 2020 with a concerted effort involving state and local governments if we re-prioritize Federal spending. http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org |
2016-07-15T17:28:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/15/forcing-investment/#comment-47222 |
| Very much so, nothing is "over". | 2016-07-13T17:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/13/the-big-endorsement/#comment-47203 |
| I think the platform came out very good all around. Clinton was forced to make promises that she can keep, which is to say that there is more to them and they are integrated into a solid budget plan. This is a win all around. | 2016-07-13T17:04:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/13/the-big-endorsement/#comment-47202 |
| I think she may be sincere on TPP, if for no other reason than she knows that complex trade deals (if it's really a trade deal) are a dead issue politically. It's also important to see who else becomes part of the inner circle. I'm assuming Robert Reich would impress you if he looked like he would return to the cabinet, no? So there probably is a lot more to reach out on, yes. It's a process. Yes, it's all about Congress at this point to me. We'll never get anything done until we get both houses, and that is still a tall order. Sigh. Even then, I'm sure progressives will have to keep the pressure on to avoid something bad from happening. |
2016-07-13T17:03:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/13/the-big-endorsement/#comment-47201 |
| I will try to pin this to the bottom as a "last word" by adjusting the date forward. SEPTEMBER 1, 1939 by W.H. Auden I sit in one of the dives On Fifty-second Street Uncertain and afraid As the clever hopes expire Of a low dishonest decade: Waves of anger and fear Circulate over the bright And darkened lands of the earth, Obsessing our private lives; The unmentionable odour of death Offends the September night. Accurate scholarship can Unearth the whole offence From Luther until now That has driven a culture mad, Find what occurred at Linz, What huge imago made A psychopathic god: I and the public know What all schoolchildren learn, Those to whom evil is done Do evil in return. Exiled Thucydides knew All that a speech can say About Democracy, And what dictators do, The elderly rubbish they talk To an apathetic grave; Analysed all in his book, The enlightenment driven away, The habit-forming pain, Mismanagement and grief: We must suffer them all again. Into this neutral air Where blind skyscrapers use Their full height to proclaim The strength of Collective Man, Each language pours its vain Competitive excuse: But who can live for long In an euphoric dream; Out of the mirror they stare, Imperialism's face And the international wrong. Faces along the bar Cling to their average day: The lights must never go out, The music must always play, All the conventions conspire To make this fort assume The furniture of home; Lest we should see where we are, Lost in a haunted wood, Children afraid of the night Who have never been happy or good. The windiest militant trash Important Persons shout Is not so crude as our wish: What mad Nijinsky wrote About Diaghilev Is true of the normal heart; For the error bred in the bone Of each woman and each man Craves what it cannot have, Not universal love But to be loved alone. From the conservative dark Into the ethical life The dense commuters come, Repeating their morning vow; 'I will be true to the wife, I'll concentrate more on my work,' And helpless governors wake To resume their compulsory game: Who can release them now, Who can reach the dead, Who can speak for the dumb? All I have is a voice To undo the folded lie, The romantic lie in the brain Of the sensual man-in-the-street And the lie of Authority Whose buildings grope the sky: There is no such thing as the State And no one exists alone; Hunger allows no choice To the citizen or the police; We must love one another or die. Defenseless under the night Our world in stupor lies; Yet, dotted everywhere, Ironic points of light Flash out wherever the Just Exchange their messages: May I, composed like them Of Eros and of dust, Beleaguered by the same Negation and despair, Show an affirming flame. | 2016-07-13T16:22:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46886 |
| It is all about training, in my opinion. And making sure that the police have the resources to do their job without getting burned out and overwhelmed. | 2016-07-11T20:33:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-47183 |
| You said "them". :-) Seriously, I think everyone can see what is being protested now and why we have to change. | 2016-07-11T14:12:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-47177 |
| Thank you! Would I like a wider audience? Of course! I'd love to be paid, too. And I think that a lot of consumers of news (lectovores in general) would like my context-rich approach. I know I'm having an influence as it is, and that's enough for now. As long as it gets me a good job somewhere near the field I'll be happy. |
2016-07-11T14:12:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-47176 |
| Martha, that makes sense to me. I am hesitating because the law itself says that you do NOT have to reveal you have a gun unless asked. There does seem to be some confusion as to the proper protocol. This should be cleared up as soon as possible. I would like for someone official to state some kind of authoritative procedure for a traffic stop while carrying. And I do hope that what you tell me turns out to be right. I am sure we both agree that Castille's death did not have to happen no matter how you look at it, however. |
2016-07-11T00:48:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-47171 |
| You are probably right. I can't see any such agreement passing any time soon even if there was one. | 2016-07-08T15:31:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/08/corporate-taxes/#comment-47158 |
| So far, doing nothing favors the big interests. Perhaps step one is to change it so that this isn't an option. | 2016-07-08T13:06:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/08/corporate-taxes/#comment-47155 |
| They will always be complicated, but they don't have to be this porous. I can't see why any large company actually pays taxes in this system. | 2016-07-08T13:05:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/08/corporate-taxes/#comment-47154 |
| Now, now. They haven't done anything that was actually criminal. | 2016-07-06T15:50:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47141 |
| Mostly, yes. But while prosecution was probably not justified, every similar case was at least investigated by the FBI, meaning Clinton got the treatment that everyone else does. That's only fair. | 2016-07-06T15:49:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47140 |
| An excellent piece, and I agree with it, too. Leaking for the purpose of informing the public has been raised to the status of selling secrets to the enemy, and that is terrible. I agree with the author that prosecution in this case was not justified, but it's been justified in far, far too many situations lately. We need a complete re-think about what "classified" is and how we can develop the more open government we need. | 2016-07-06T15:48:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47139 |
| Thanks! | 2016-07-06T15:46:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47138 |
| She definitely should have asked more questions. Whether or not that is criminal is another question. | 2016-07-06T15:46:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47137 |
| There has never been a high profile case like this prosecuted. | 2016-07-06T15:45:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47136 |
| Very true. | 2016-07-04T16:45:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/04/fly-the-flag-4/#comment-47121 |
| Thank you! I am a bit sheepish about re-using old posts, but I really like this one. It's at the core of what I believe. | 2016-07-04T16:45:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/04/fly-the-flag-4/#comment-47120 |
| Thank you! It means a lot to me. | 2016-07-04T16:45:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/04/fly-the-flag-4/#comment-47118 |
| A belated Happy Canada Day to you! I always like how your nation gradually agreed your way to independence. So very Canadian (also shown in how you still argue about it - politely yet pointedly! :-) ) | 2016-07-04T16:44:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/04/fly-the-flag-4/#comment-47117 |
| You have to keep your eyes open and really dig for truth. :-) | 2016-07-02T19:55:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/01/the-star-spangled-banner/#comment-47108 |
| Correlation does not imply causality. :-) | 2016-07-02T19:51:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/01/the-star-spangled-banner/#comment-47106 |
| Thanks! I thought I should do something a little different for the holiday. | 2016-07-02T19:51:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/01/the-star-spangled-banner/#comment-47105 |
| Great addition! I have to say I like it much better as a poem than as a song - it's far too hard to sing IMHO. | 2016-07-02T19:50:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/01/the-star-spangled-banner/#comment-47104 |
| Yes. But investment is all about risk management, and when we don't have things in a neat little box people tend to see nothing but risk everywhere - and sit on their money. | 2016-06-30T01:44:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/29/big-ideas-fall-apart/#comment-47090 |
| I haven't exactly reached what I would call a "conclusion" yet. | 2016-06-29T16:29:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/29/big-ideas-fall-apart/#comment-47086 |
| That is indeed the problem. On the face of it there is no need for government to screw around with this. Then again, that would clearly result in chaos. | 2016-06-29T16:29:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/29/big-ideas-fall-apart/#comment-47085 |
| Absolutely! You've been a big help getting me down this path, and thank you. My concern about Sanders' people is more that they are susceptible to big ideas at times. That's OK, but if we learned one thing from the last few hundred years it's that small ideas, people, lead the way to truly successful revolutions. | 2016-06-29T01:58:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/29/big-ideas-fall-apart/#comment-47079 |
| Probably not stupid, but I don't understand their position at all, no. | 2016-06-28T17:47:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/27/brexit-blowup/#comment-47062 |
| It really was a surprise to just about everyone. Very strange, actually. | 2016-06-28T14:58:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/27/brexit-blowup/#comment-47059 |
| Indeed, it could. | 2016-06-27T16:23:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/27/brexit-blowup/#comment-47050 |
| Thank you! The EU is terribly flawed, but leaving is very different from fixing it. That's the real problem. They still need an EU. | 2016-06-27T16:23:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/27/brexit-blowup/#comment-47049 |
| It's a mess, all around. This will take a long time to sort out. Just finishing my next piece on it. I say all bets are off until the dust settles. | 2016-06-26T21:43:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47036 |
| There does have to be some "order" to the world, yes. You or I may not like the first pass at it, but retreating back into a lack of order whilst at the same time we are indeed living much closer together is quite dangerous. We have reason to be worried by all this. |
2016-06-24T21:52:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47022 |
| I was going off of some of the talk that was part of this election. Leaving aside the refugee / immigration crisis, which I think has been talked about at great length in response to what it meant to the election, it seemed that we had two main arguments. One was that none of the arrangements in place now work for the workingman, and the other was that the EU was essentially Germany. Those two contrast nicely. Common Market history is indeed fascinating and, as I have written in the past, the EU is absolutely necessary for many, many reasons. The UK decision was horrible. The EU is flawed, yes, but some kind of economic union is essential and some kind of political common policy, if not union, is also essential. One would think that would be obvious by now. It wasn't. |
2016-06-24T21:51:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47021 |
| Don't forget a Northern Irish referendum on joining the Republic. That may be in the works as well. | 2016-06-24T17:29:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47014 |
| No. They have to re-align and where they wind up is anyone's guess. My first thought is that the US as a "safe harbor" has just become the destination of choice for all money all around the world. But we're not putting it to good use here, so the returns aren't as good as they could be. This won't help risk aversion one bit, either, and that is a real root problem. So how will it all re-align? Hard to say. |
2016-06-24T17:05:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47011 |
| It could be. Let's watch the fallout and see what the message is. | 2016-06-24T17:03:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47010 |
| I'm taking a step back. I do think that if there was a good balance and the economy worked for everyone we wouldn't be here today. By "here" I mean all of us in this ugly place we are in. I'm looking for a root cause of all this unrest, which is indeed global. Well, it's not anywhere near as bad in Germany - for some good reasons, I think. | 2016-06-24T17:03:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47009 |
| There is no way to look at this without seeing a big mistake. The EU certainly over-stepped itself with political union - before it got the rest of its house in order. I'll give the "leave" crowd that. But the basic concept of moving closer together is a reality. People all over the world are fighting it, but they can't. The next generation doesn't support this nativism and it will eventually move at its own pace towards a more unified world. But how? What will it look like? How will it make a world which is resilient and provides real opportunities for all? How will it be open and free? Dunno. All we know is that the EU model is being forced to retrace its steps. And the UK has to go back to figuring out what it means to be "post-imperial". |
2016-06-24T17:01:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47007 |
| It's bad, all around. It's less about the UK as much as a general failure of the EU. | 2016-06-24T16:54:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47004 |
| I'd love your thoughts, too - maybe as this settles out. I just see a fundamental power imbalance that prevents the EU from being anything more than a mush. Without the UK it seems really lost. | 2016-06-24T03:41:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-46996 |
| Which of the two is a practicing Christian? Only Clinton. http://www.christianpost.com/news/6-interesting-facts-about-hillary-clintons-christian-faith-138314/ | 2016-06-22T17:40:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46982 |
| They did create the monster, and they do have an obligation to stop it. Like Dr. Frankenstein. But will they? We'll see. | 2016-06-22T17:39:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46981 |
| The odds are at least long, so it probably won't happen. But remember that we have another finance report and the Judge's decision in Cohen v Trump yet to come. | 2016-06-22T17:38:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46980 |
| I think they may just. Odds are still long, but not impossible. | 2016-06-22T16:27:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46978 |
| Who do I think is more sincere and has the American people in their heart first? Clinton, by a very, very wide margin. There is absolutely no contest on that standard. |
2016-06-22T16:26:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46977 |
| My contention has always been that he is a fraud. I think that is about to be proved. We'll see. | 2016-06-22T02:31:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46965 |
| I have spoken to a lot of Trump supporters and had some very good, respectful conversations. What it seems to come down to is that the people in power are either incredibly corrupt or they have no idea what they are doing (readers of this site know I'm really sure it's mostly the latter). Either way, Trump fans want someone from the outside with experience making things happen to come in and try something new. And that is a very reasonable instinct, if you ask me. My entire problem is that Trump is deeply flawed as a person - and I am quite convinced that he is not a successful business man but is instead a VERY successful professional celebrity. In other words, a complete fraud. So I do understand why people back someone like Trump - although I still believe that at the very top experience does count and the place to put in new blood is in the House and Senate. But I'll leave that all aside. There is a place for good business people, IMHO. They are the ones who can make social legislation and safety nets actually work. We need people like that engaged in the process if you ask me. Just not at the very top, unless they've proved themselves. And never Trump - he's much more like Kim Kardashian (sp?) than, say, Warren Buffet. |
2016-06-22T02:23:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46963 |
| First of all, thank you for a level-headed reply to what is probably my nastiest post ever. You're a better person than I am on this one. And you do have a point - he has ALWAYS defied the odds. I do not see him possibly elected, however. The odds are way against him. With no money it's just worse. |
2016-06-22T01:08:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46960 |
| By all means, and this is something more interesting than what is going on here. It does look like Brexit will fail, but we will see! | 2016-06-21T15:43:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/17/brexit-turns-violent/#comment-46955 |
| We aren't really set up for more than two parties, but we do need more open discussion of what's wrong. In any other democratic society there are outlets for more voices. Will the Libertarians hit prime time? Maybe they will this time! | 2016-06-21T03:55:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46954 |
| Several points here. First of all, I don't understand how VC funds operate, to be honest, and there are none that I can see which are truly "public" and trackable. So there is a limit to how much money can possibly go into any given fund. Second, most target very small businesses. I cannot find good information all around, but this article has some that suggests that larger funds are coming into play, which will spread risk around. http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/06/micro-venture-capital-funds-growth/ I didn't use this article for this piece because it really doesn't have much to say about the total amount of money coming into VC as a trend, but it does show that it favors smaller operations. |
2016-06-20T15:40:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/20/risk-aversion/#comment-46949 |
| I completely agree, but the rest of the world does not. We have to go with sentiment and figure out what it will take to change it. I see risk aversion as a major problem right now - and a big contributor to the "skills gap" among other issues. | 2016-06-20T15:12:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/20/risk-aversion/#comment-46945 |
| The thing is that in order to make it work, we we have to understand it. How, indeed, do we get money into the hands of people who are going to fuel the new economy in the way everyone talks about - technology and innovation driven stuff? And what safety net is appropriate? How do we protect a "flexible" workforce that works from one contract to the next? How do we guarantee such workers an income that will keep them going? There are a LOT of questions, but if you start from the perspective of "we have a new economy forming" they are all very hard to answer. |
2016-06-20T14:34:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/20/risk-aversion/#comment-46942 |
| Yes, the whole economy is re-making itself. It is largely a question of who benefits - how the economy is made. But we don't need a "revolution" - it's already started. | 2016-06-20T14:20:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/20/risk-aversion/#comment-46940 |
| Indeed. | 2016-06-17T17:38:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/17/brexit-turns-violent/#comment-46924 |
| Yes, indeed. | 2016-06-17T17:09:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/17/brexit-turns-violent/#comment-46921 |
| I think you hit something important, sister. Very important. | 2016-06-17T17:09:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/17/brexit-turns-violent/#comment-46920 |
| Because only 15 states are sane? Keep in mind that I am being a bit conservative here - it's well known that many of the guns in some of these states - IL, MA, especially DC - come from other states. A more universal law would even cut gun deaths in those states. | 2016-06-15T19:00:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/15/common-sense-gun-laws/#comment-46909 |
| I agree. This is not that, however, but just a start. | 2016-06-15T17:24:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/15/common-sense-gun-laws/#comment-46906 |
| Thank you. I'm looking for common ground that bridges the political divide here. That's where I think we have to start. | 2016-06-15T17:24:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/15/common-sense-gun-laws/#comment-46905 |
| Thank you. And yes, I have my ideas and political thoughts on all this - but in the middle of grief is just not the time. | 2016-06-14T14:33:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46899 |
| Amen. | 2016-06-13T21:11:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46893 |
| Thank you. | 2016-06-13T18:09:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46889 |
| Thank you. My readers are much better than I am. All I ask is for a good conversation - and alla y'all come through beautifully. | 2016-06-13T16:29:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46887 |
| Indeed. But I think we can all get through eventually. It's not about our opinion, it's about one voice made of many. We have a ways to go. | 2016-06-13T16:19:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46884 |
| It is so long it will kill the thread. If I can find a way to pin it to the bottom I will. Thank you. | 2016-06-13T16:18:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46883 |
| Absolutely. You have a very powerful angle here that I am only now starting to think through. This is very important. Thank you. | 2016-06-13T15:04:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46878 |
| My response is weak. Normally, I would wait to say something stronger but I felt as though I could not avoid this. Consider this post nothing more than a series of sobs from a fetal position in the corner, if you want. We have to start from the place I describe here, I am sure. Is it enough to take us out to solve the problem, to get past the violence? No. This is not a course of action, it is a statement of principles. I have written many times on the need for simple respect and decency, but that always flies of the situation at 30,000 feet. Yet that is where we have to come from. They are also a form of love - a cool acceptance of the value of all human life. It is a love all the same. It is also just a start. We must not allow outrage to propel us, that's all I know. While I am outraged by this shooting it cannot be the only response I have. There must be another way. We must all find another way. As I think of more I will try to say something more intelligent - something with a stronger plan of action in it, as you have. Thank you for your words - you are indeed spot on. When we have the strength that comes from some time from which a resolve is built we can go forward and put an end to this endless cycle of outrage and hate. I do appreciate what you say here very much. For now, I find myself huddled in the corner in a fetal position. I am focusing on the only thing that can possibly help me build more resolve to do something about this. That's not action, not yet. We do need action before more people die. |
2016-06-13T15:03:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46877 |
| It is the conversation that is important. There is so much wrong with our world that we have to stop and take note of it all. The bizzy machine has to stop whirling for a moment and we have to ask, "What is it we really want? What will make us happy?" | 2016-06-13T14:55:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46876 |
| I went with the rant. I really felt like I couldn't avoid it for this one - the killing just keeps getting more and more. | 2016-06-13T14:03:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46872 |
| We are failing in mental health issues every way we can, from putting as much stress on people as possible to a health system that is both terrible at maintenance / promoting health as well as not including universal access to anything. If you take this angle, the failures stack up quickly. | 2016-06-13T14:02:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46871 |
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJEwrw4VEls | 2016-06-10T20:51:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46854 |
| Thank you for the explanation. To a Yankee like me mentioning Santa Anna as a kind of patron saint to Tejanos seems vaguely racist. But having come from a multi-cultural place (Miami) I do understand that people always "go there" and it's just a way of laughing off the tensions and getting along. So, yeah, if it's a Texas thing and all Texans make jokes about it we're all cool. Just keep in mind that those of us not from your nation, er, state aren't always sure what to make of it. :-) |
2016-06-10T20:38:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46853 |
| You know, that is her greatest strength - being underestimated constantly. It's part of what makes her so tough - a man with her gravitas would not be messed with all the time. She has to stay sharp all the time. Do you remember my piece on women in power through history and how many of them were truly great leaders? This may be why. They never, ever let their guard down. They couldn't. Angela Merkel is very much the same way. She is Clinton with a German accent. There may be something great to this analysis. Thank you! :-) |
2016-06-10T15:56:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46851 |
| I agree all around - it's way better to be mobile and strike just about anywhere that you have a chance. Even a feint to test the line, especially early on, is good. I think we will see that Clinton is ahead once the Democrats get their act together. Polls from around next week should reflect unity, at least in part. That will tell us where we really stand. Totally agree on "prevent defense". I have seen a lot of good teams lose games they shouldn't have with that crap. Clinton knows this, too, but probably not from football. :-) |
2016-06-10T15:51:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46849 |
| No, but they might rise up for themselves. Trump made this awfully personal. I really don't know why Latinos don't vote, but my guess is that there isn't anything in the system that speaks to them. Wendy Davis couldn't rally them, but that doesn't seem surprising. I think you are asking a good question, and there does have to be more to it than Clinton. Not-Trump is a good start, but is it really enough? |
2016-06-10T14:53:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46847 |
| Pancho Villa, maybe? :-) | 2016-06-10T14:13:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46845 |
| What's all this about Santa Anna? People are hatin' on Texas here. :-) | 2016-06-10T14:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46844 |
| Remember, he had only one real leg, so he would have to be careful about losing his ass, too. | 2016-06-10T14:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46843 |
| I will address the Texas phenom in more detail in a new post. In the meantime, here is my electoral map: | 2016-06-09T19:45:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46837 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-06-08T22:53:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/08/finding-good/#comment-46832 |
| Yes, more reasons to hate ______ (someone) | 2016-06-08T22:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/08/finding-good/#comment-46831 |
| That's my job! :-) | 2016-06-08T22:10:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/08/finding-good/#comment-46828 |
| Indeed, we just have to find it! | 2016-06-08T22:10:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/08/finding-good/#comment-46827 |
| This will be ugly, but there is always a chance we can have some discussion about the future of this nation in and among the noise. | 2016-06-06T17:32:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46804 |
| That seems to be a big part of the strategy for both campaigns. Trump will keep talking to the press, which will probably do him more damage than anything else now that the press is on to him. | 2016-06-06T17:32:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46803 |
| Yes, all around! I think there is a fine line between responding to him and engaging him. What she just did was to spank him, essentially, which keeps her above the fray. Surrogates can do the heavier lifting. A constant barrage of "fraud" is the key, however. | 2016-06-06T17:31:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46802 |
| It may not change this election, but a voter registration drive targeting a million people is still a good idea. Texans are dissatisfied with where things are going - economically, socially, and now the flooding. Plus, Trump will indeed scare Latinos to the polls. It's worth fighting for a lot of reasons. | 2016-06-06T14:45:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46798 |
| Thanks! | 2016-06-03T22:12:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/03/everything-counts-2/#comment-46776 |
| A Jesuit tradition, I think. :-) | 2016-06-03T22:12:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/03/everything-counts-2/#comment-46775 |
| How wonderful! Yes, he is like that as well as the profound stuff. :-) | 2016-06-03T22:11:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/03/everything-counts-2/#comment-46774 |
| Also, I want to make it clear here - this is about perspective more than anything else. It only touches on the problems and does nothing to provide solutions. Simply noting that business cycles are real, that income inequality accelerates in downturns, and that different policies are required during those times is pretty big for the IMF itself to admit. As I concluded, and others here are saying, it's far from enough. But it's a start. | 2016-06-01T17:58:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/#comment-46760 |
| Fair enough. As I said in the end, it's a start, but only that. | 2016-06-01T17:53:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/#comment-46759 |
| Not really. This article is getting at one of the roots of income inequality, which is business cycles. A steady economy produces less inequality than one that goes up and down all the time. The very wealthy can make money at both ends, the poor suffer in the downturns terribly. Debt cycles have a lot to do with trying to survive the downturns. So I'm sorry that I didn't make that clear in the article, but we're talking about one of the things that the IMF researchers and I agree on, which is that business cycles are a big part of the problem. We're actually both concerned with income inequality and as for austerity I thought I addressed that directly as a big load of crap. What is important here is that IMF researchers are challenging the IMF methodology, which includes austerity. I've long supported this position and I am glad they have come around to this thinking. |
2016-06-01T17:49:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/#comment-46757 |
| Short answer: yes. Long answer - it's completely revolutionary because most modern economics starts with the assumption that the desire of policy is to produce smooth, steady growth. If you accept that this is not natural, or even possible, everything has to change. Further, it implies that the correct policy at any given moment is not dictated by ideology but by situational analysis - which is to say that a good economic policy is more like being an auto mechanic than an academic. You can see how this would rub a lot of people with fancy degrees the wrong way. There is no "one way". Reagan's emphasis on supply-side was the right thing to do in 1980 but it's exactly the wrong thing right now. And even when it was the right thing I can make the case that they oversold it then, too. No one in academia or in central banks likes this way of thinking, but it seems to be quite reasonable. The reason I emphasize this Depression is that it does require a completely new understanding of economic policy that is neither Neoliberal nor Socialist. |
2016-06-01T15:36:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/#comment-46754 |
| So sorry to hear that he passed without telling you more. That generation did indeed just do without whining. We miss them terribly as a society. | 2016-05-30T20:02:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/30/leadership-d-day/#comment-46732 |
| There is a bigger message here - we don't have anything to whine about, and even if we did whining wouldn't solve a damned thing. Leadership is what makes the difference whenever things get tough. Whether it's leading and inspiring others or just steeling yourself, it's really about leadership to get the job done. That's what we need more of. |
2016-05-30T15:21:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/30/leadership-d-day/#comment-46730 |
| Thank you so much, I am glad to have touched you. I would have loved to have met your Dad as I love meeting all veterans. Their stories need to be told because we are asked so little in our own lives. | 2016-05-30T15:12:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/30/leadership-d-day/#comment-46728 |
| Thank you! And by all means, it's a great honor to be reblogged! | 2016-05-30T01:59:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/30/leadership-d-day/#comment-46724 |
| Thank you! | 2016-05-28T05:49:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/27/memorial-day-4/#comment-46715 |
| I will run it every year. We need more of the peace they have in Oakland - especially for the living. | 2016-05-28T05:49:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/27/memorial-day-4/#comment-46714 |
| It is a beautiful place, and worth spending a lot of time in. \ |
2016-05-28T05:48:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/27/memorial-day-4/#comment-46713 |
| That would be our big advantage, yes. But how do you demonstrate THAT on a resume, eh? The system doesn't seem to be able to screen for things like common sense - or value them at all. | 2016-05-25T16:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/25/automation-for-people/#comment-46690 |
| That is a good point! I hope there are still jobs for front-line customer service reps, though. Far too much of that is being automated (badly). "Push 1 to hear yourself scream, Push 2 to hear instructions in Bengali ..." |
2016-05-25T16:30:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/25/automation-for-people/#comment-46689 |
| :-) Touche! |
2016-05-23T21:51:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/23/national-identity/#comment-46675 |
| That's pretty much where I am coming from, yes. But there are a lot of questions about who we are as a people which need to be answered. There's no reason we can't work through that if everyone stays calm, of course. It's almost as if people refuse to be calm. Again, this is all about bad leadership. The bathroom bill, to use your example, didn't come from nowhere. Someone in a position of leadership thought this was a good idea. |
2016-05-23T15:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/23/national-identity/#comment-46673 |
| Thank you very much. | 2016-05-23T15:14:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/23/national-identity/#comment-46671 |
| Fantastic quote, and very true! That is the part of our mythology we need to keep, for sure. I'm thinking about what is true and useful in our mythology and what is not. |
2016-05-23T15:13:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/23/national-identity/#comment-46670 |
| Thank you! I have always though that any gun regulation should center on precisely what the military sees as the critical component - training. I have no problem with people who know what they are doing owning and carrying arms. I also see nothing wrong with encouraging this, either. But I don't know how even this approach would pass the test implied by Heller - that it is a fundamental right akin to free speech. Yes, criminals will always find a way to have guns, for sure. I think far too much emphasis is placed on the weapon and nowhere near enough on the person who is carrying it. I do believe that if you use a gun in the commission of a crime the penalties should be severe - again, it's an emphasis on the person, not the weapon. |
2016-05-23T01:47:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46665 |
| That has been my feeling. The DNC chair hasn't helped, but letting this burn out really only makes Sanders' side look terrible. | 2016-05-20T20:12:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46654 |
| That does seem to be what's happening, yes. And it's not good for anyone. | 2016-05-20T20:05:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46652 |
| Proportional delegates have kept this race alive a lot longer than it would otherwise, yes. That's the main reason I get angry when I hear all this "It's rigged!" talk. Yeesh. |
2016-05-20T17:16:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46650 |
| I worry about the same thing. There are a series of "facts" which are not true that have been believed by the Sanders camp simply because they have been repeated often. | 2016-05-20T14:02:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46647 |
| I hope and pray it was a totally isolated incident. That would be good for us all. Let's see what happens when it gets to New Jersey. :-) |
2016-05-20T01:27:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46642 |
| Thanks, Josh. I'm just dismayed at all this. I honestly think the stakes couldn't be much lower for so much fuss, and no one was paying attention to what the downside might be. I know, I'm a Clinton supporter. But I'm all for Sanders going to the convention, and I'm all for him raising a fuss. He should get a lot of representation in the platform, for sure. But this ... this does no one any good. It doesn't help him or the cause, and it certainly doesn't help Clinton. Bleck. |
2016-05-20T00:43:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46640 |
| I can only imagine how strange it looks. I don't understand it entirely myself. | 2016-05-19T19:50:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46635 |
| Indeed. I don't think many people know of this, either. | 2016-05-19T00:08:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46629 |
| The Supreme court should be a very large issue in this campaign. Which is in and of itself rather sad, but it's the way it is. | 2016-05-18T20:24:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46627 |
| That was always my read, too, but with Heller the fundamental individual right is the law of the land. It was not before. | 2016-05-18T14:55:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46621 |
| No, they are not. I would like some sensible things to regulate people, however. If nothing else they should know how to use these things that will be with us. | 2016-05-18T14:54:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46620 |
| A good point - guns got ahead of our ability to understand them - what they are for, what they can do, et cetera. Hardly the only thing in that category, but one of the most lethal. | 2016-05-18T14:54:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46619 |
| Dodd-Frank gave up some ground, but the Democrats controlled Congress at that time (2010). It wasn't really a compromise at all - it's very comprehensive and generally does just what it is supposed to. Where it is lacking is in the non-bank area, and I think that Frank would be one of the first to acknowledge that this is a shortcoming. But in terms of banks it seems that the very worst is covered, at least. | 2016-05-16T18:22:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/16/break-big-banks/#comment-46600 |
| That's probably true all around. It sure sounds good - it's all their fault and now we must punish them. | 2016-05-16T18:20:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/16/break-big-banks/#comment-46599 |
| No bank in the US is big enough to even come close to triggering anti-trust laws. If they do cooperate in something like a trust they will be in serious trouble - but they tend to be much more competitive than that. | 2016-05-16T02:13:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/16/break-big-banks/#comment-46593 |
| Exactly, that's my point. We do have a problem, yes. It's a lot better than it was after Dodd-Frank and the Volker Rule but it's still there. And breaking up banks is not going to help it one bit. | 2016-05-16T02:12:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/16/break-big-banks/#comment-46592 |
| Good point. It is about 1%, which is why this would take the headline unemployment from 5% to 4%. That may not seem like a lot, but it is a big deal if you are one of the million-plus people. | 2016-05-13T16:32:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/13/reinventing-the-labor-market/#comment-46576 |
| I wish it were that easy. I can't tell you how many applications I've filled out over the last few months. Companies want a very precise fit - and you better not look "overqualified" because they fear you'll ask for too much money. | 2016-05-13T14:51:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/13/reinventing-the-labor-market/#comment-46574 |
| Perhaps I did. But budgets are very tight and there isn't much room for trying someone out if they can't grow quickly into the position, no matter how smart they are. Then again, with the number of contract workers out there employers can do a "trial run" with a person rather than sit around and wait for the perfect person with a lot of skills and a low desire for pay. So I do see your point. But companies are slow to hire for a lot of reasons today and this is just one of them. |
2016-05-13T14:50:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/13/reinventing-the-labor-market/#comment-46573 |
| Over the long haul that does seem like the best solution. Certification is part of the process and having someone who has not only taken classes but can demonstrate the skills would be of benefit to everyone. A union, or if we have to use a euphemism Guild, would be the most appropriate way to do this for sure. But it will take a long time to set this up. | 2016-05-13T02:18:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/13/reinventing-the-labor-market/#comment-46567 |
| I think 8% is about as low as anyone can go - it's almost what you'd expect entirely by accident. Yes, he's a total fraud. People support him because they are convinced everyone else are total frauds - which honestly I don't get at all. Then again, the Republicans have been saying very wrong things for a long time so perhaps many people are just used to it - or cannot figure out what is true on their own anymore. | 2016-05-11T15:08:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/11/buncombe/#comment-46556 |
| In a world where half of the people think Obama and Clinton always lie and the other half think they always tell the truth, it's a bit closer to 50/50. :-) Seriously, they rarely tell outright lies - but Trump most certainly does. It's a big difference. | 2016-05-11T13:24:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/11/buncombe/#comment-46552 |
| Well, that would make sense, yes. :-) | 2016-05-11T13:23:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/11/buncombe/#comment-46551 |
| Thank you! And sorry that the comments section is periodically messed up. I don't understand it, myself. Things seem to mysteriously break and then fix themselves. | 2016-05-11T13:22:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/11/buncombe/#comment-46550 |
| That may actually be true. I am thinking about this and the "skills gap". Back at ya later. | 2016-05-10T22:48:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/09/job-growth-crashes/#comment-46539 |
| Well, yes, if there is indeed a "skills gap". That would be a serious situation all around, but there is evidence that we have a skills gap of about 1.4M people. My gut says that is real which is to say headline U3 unemployment would be about 4.1% today, which is pretty close to full employment. https://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/ | 2016-05-09T15:58:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/09/job-growth-crashes/#comment-46518 |
| Thank you! | 2016-05-06T21:42:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46487 |
| Amen! But it does appear that the electorate isn't doing a good job of thinking sometimes. My faith in it is being tested. | 2016-05-06T21:42:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46486 |
| But is anger going to get us anywhere good? Back to Invisible Mikey's comment at the top .... | 2016-05-06T15:38:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46482 |
| So what should we be angry at? Everything? I was thinking about the end of Centrism as a political force of any kind, given that in a time like this there's just no space for it. But how do we focus on what we should be legitimately angry at so we can change it? | 2016-05-06T15:37:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46481 |
| Jealousy, class resentment, things like that. I can see that to some extent, but we also still revere rich people. A good share of Trump's support is among people who think he's very smart and very capable. I'll accept that last part for sure - there is more than racism. But class and race often go together in this country, or at least get so mixed up it's hard to tell what's going on. Thanks! |
2016-05-06T15:36:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46480 |
| Wow. That's really good. We should have TV ads along those lines - seriously. Just ask people to get ahold of themselves and THINK for a moment. | 2016-05-06T15:34:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46479 |
| You raise an excellent point, and I will see if I can figure out how people get to the Xcel Center. I made a huge assumption that the vast majority came in cars and that may not be correct. In my defense I was only looking at the pedestrian traffic, but as we consider them we should know where they are going. | 2016-05-05T03:11:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46467 |
| Quick response - we are looking into all of these as a team including a tunnel as I mentioned in this piece. | 2016-05-05T02:40:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46464 |
| I agree all around. However, shifting cars to Shepard may be hard for an important reason. This may be more local traffic that wants to be on Seventh. We need to learn a lot more about it, but in principle I agree. Do we need a streetcar? At $50M per mile it's hard to justify, if you ask me. But I would gladly support an improved bus service, especially West of Randolph where there is no local bus now, and see how that goes. |
2016-05-04T21:08:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46462 |
| First point - the chart I have shows 24k cars per day, and that was verified by the City. MnDOT was OK with the 3 lane conversion up to the point where it hit 20k cars per day, which I think was unfortunate. I'm sure it would work all the way. As for lane width, I do not support a 10' lane anywhere that there are trucks. If we were to go with that, we would have to lose the MN Highway 5 designation - not necessarily a bad thing, but a big thing. It may be necessary. As for parking - businesses really demand it. Period. I want to get to the heart of this because I see a need for ramps tucked behind and under buildings even with no changes to Seventh - would that be enough? My gut says yes, the businesses say no. It's worth talking about. As for Shepard, yes. All around. That may want to be Highway 5, for example. My only problem with your design is that we really do need a very wide sidewalk. I will never support less than 12' anywhere, and around here I tell you 20' would not be ridiculous. The current 13' or so is barely manageable. But |
2016-05-04T21:06:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46461 |
| I suppose it should! I was thinking about the Xcel crowd, hence the need for cars. They all get in their cars at some point. But a real Pedestrian Paradise would probably just have trains. Not really a nitpick! | 2016-05-04T21:00:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46460 |
| It represents the worst in us and offers a question as to how we will adapt to a deeply impersonal world. | 2016-05-02T19:14:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/02/age-of-anxiety-2/#comment-46440 |
| Yes. A lot of people have seen all this coming. | 2016-05-02T19:13:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/02/age-of-anxiety-2/#comment-46439 |
| I'm more interested in his tactics, which were both new and old. Some of it worked very well, but at a high cost. | 2016-04-29T18:28:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/29/the-big-rally/#comment-46418 |
| Well, my intent was to highlight what appears to be a trend - one that is difficult at best. Is Sanders "revolutionary"? We will see if he and his followers spark something in the next few years. |
2016-04-29T18:27:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/29/the-big-rally/#comment-46417 |
| I think that's ultimately the lesson. He paid a lot for consultants that he shouldn't have, and actually ran a really high-buck campaign all around. The rallies were just part of the very expensive roll. For comparison - Trump has only spent $50M, Clinton $150M. I would recommend caution when trying to replicate the Sanders model, for sure. It's not for a real "insurgent". |
2016-04-29T15:06:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/29/the-big-rally/#comment-46414 |
| Isn't it strange? I don't understand how we got here, either. | 2016-04-27T20:36:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/27/boundaries/#comment-46402 |
| Far too much, yes. | 2016-04-27T20:35:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/27/boundaries/#comment-46401 |
| It is an old problem by now, but thinking about Prince compelled me to write on the source of his strength. | 2016-04-27T20:35:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/27/boundaries/#comment-46400 |
| Thank you. Fascinating, no? People need to know about the goodness in the world. We hear far too much about anger and sorrow. | 2016-04-25T20:00:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/25/prince/#comment-46386 |
| You are most welcome. To spread the word of great people like Prince is to spread the peace! | 2016-04-25T20:00:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/25/prince/#comment-46385 |
| I take it you were not a big fan of his music, too. That's where I was coming from. I liked him a lot as a person. Van Jones said that we should stop writing about his music and write about him as a person. Out of respect for both men - good, Christian men - I did that. Prince will be missed for a lot of reasons. |
2016-04-25T15:19:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/25/prince/#comment-46379 |
| It would help. You may not be a typical voter but people feel they have to be able to related to the President. Would you have a beer with Obama? I sure would, and Clinton, too! And Sanders, for that matter. But I'm a bit weird. Would I like to have a beer with Cruz or Trump? Fuggedaboudit. Kasich, sure. :-) |
2016-04-22T19:43:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46363 |
| I don't know if they can stop him. If they do it may be worse, depending on who they nominated. My dream is a contested convention where Ted Cruz comes out on top. All Hell would break loose. | 2016-04-22T19:41:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46362 |
| This was "in the can" when the announcement of his death came. I'm also still not sure what to say. | 2016-04-22T02:52:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46354 |
| Thank you! | 2016-04-22T02:51:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46353 |
| Don't be shy to promote your piece - it's good. And an excellent counter to me on the same subject: https://myfridayblog.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/how-to-unite-the-democrats/ Ending superdelegates would be a really easy thing for her to support, for example - so she should. I like what you have here and I know it's from the heart. We need to listen to voices like yours now. Also, I agree on Warren. Would be bold and very interesting. |
2016-04-22T02:51:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46352 |
| They don't want the US Dollar to rise - but it hasn't been rising very fast lately. I also think they should be raising - it brings more money into the economy than anything else right now as Chinese money comes our way. Keep in mind that the "Chinese Money" is really money that went over there when we lowered rates in the first place. It found the best investment it could - and in 2010 that wasn't here. |
2016-04-20T15:37:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/20/spatters-of-dragon-blood/#comment-46338 |
| It appears to be so. We have to take that into account when we pass any laws, policies, etc. | 2016-04-20T15:09:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/20/spatters-of-dragon-blood/#comment-46336 |
| About 10 years ago. :-) Seriously, these numbers are ridiculous. For example, Jesus walked the earth less than a million days ago. A trillion hours ago? Dinosaurs ruled the earth. In fact, if the earth is really 4.5 billion years old or so, there have been only 1.5 trillion days total on this planet. |
2016-04-20T15:06:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/20/spatters-of-dragon-blood/#comment-46335 |
| Exactly. The economy is not dynamic enough for it to flow into good investments / jobs / etc. Not yet, anyway. | 2016-04-20T15:04:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/20/spatters-of-dragon-blood/#comment-46334 |
| Wow! Lotta hating going on! :-) Seriously, I think there are a lot of people who see this as you do. I do wonder if we can at least put the brakes on this stuff. | 2016-04-18T23:28:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46325 |
| Maybe. At least people are returning to cities! | 2016-04-18T23:26:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46324 |
| That is definitely part of the problem. The cost of labor is also probably a problem, too, since construction is very labor dependent. It's worth looking at more closely as to what's really going on if we're all convinced there is a quality issue. | 2016-04-18T21:26:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46321 |
| Thanks. I do worry about the quality as much as the scale of things. | 2016-04-18T13:52:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46317 |
| That has been my main concern all along - quality. Buildings of quality usually find a re-use, unless they are very specific. But without quality we're definitely building the slums of tomorrow today. |
2016-04-18T13:45:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46315 |
| Yes, indeed. Resiliency is very important, which we are just not building into our systems. | 2016-04-15T19:18:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46308 |
| "In the long run we're all dead." | 2016-04-15T15:21:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46302 |
| You would think, right. That is a good point - they are trying to destroy it and it just keeps holding value. It's kind of strange. But a lot of this is "What would you rather hold, Yen or Yuan?" They win that one. | 2016-04-15T15:21:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46301 |
| I have to answer that with a link: https://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/ There will always be growth, matched to population growth and productivity increases. But some of that growth should probably be taken out as less work. We may well have outgrown the 40 hour work-week - we may need to make 32 the standard. My solution is to let the length of the workweek be subject to market forces, too. If people can make enough to live in 32 hours they probably will. That's a terrible punt and I know it. But I don't know any other way to make this work. |
2016-04-15T15:05:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46298 |
| So where is the place for pieces like this full of an awful lot of detail? What about things like my half-hour long discussions at a taproom? Some of this stuff you really can't push together in less time or fewer words. Some of it I have to refine and maybe can get down to a sound-bite the length of "We'll build a wall!". You're asking damned good questions. I count on you and other readers to help me answer this and think it all through. Thanks so much for being in on it all! |
2016-04-15T15:01:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46297 |
| No, you're not the problem! You're asking a lot of questions and setting yourself up with a good BS detector to evaluate the responses. Yes, energy is not created or destroyed. And all this stuff that litters our lives comes from somewhere. But it all provides jobs to people. Having the whole economy change over in so many ways is really, really complicated. It really tests this thing called "Democracy". Hell, it tests "Civilization". :-) |
2016-04-15T04:22:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46291 |
| Why do we keep doing the same things? Well, aren't things changing enough as it is? It used to be you could depend on stuff to be a certain way - and a lot of people are depending on them. To just say "Screw you guys, I'm going home" and go off into the woods in a tiny house may make sense to people with nothing to lose, but most people have something they'd be giving up. They don't want to give that up. And if we throw everything out, what about stuff like Social Security and Medicare? Plus the other parts of this system that genuinely keep people alive? So .... we can't just throw out everything. Or maybe you can, so go for it. But most people can't or just won't for a lot of reasons. |
2016-04-15T04:20:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46290 |
| Well, perhaps you don't have to worry about the details. The short version is, "We have a lot to learn from Japan." The long answer, here, is "We can learn some things from them, but we already did some things right." Let's keep it simple - the challenge to the whole world right now is to reform and modernize society from the ground up. We look at the economic pieces and sometimes the social pieces and see them as different. They aren't. We also look at the challenges to developed nations and developing nations as different. In some ways they are the same - reform at all levels is absolutely required. Now, step back a moment and look at the conservative (small "c") movements that are fighting change. They exist all over the world, and for a good reason - people everywhere are waking up in nations they don't recognize. That experience is a little different from one place to the next, but the emotional response is very similar. Japan is failing for a lot of reasons. We're not thriving for some similar reasons. China? Hard to say just where it's going, but they aren't exactly failing nor are they thriving in the way they'd like. Is any of this sustainable? Short answer: No. Not a bit. There's just not enough paying work to go around as we all automate and experience productivity increases. No amount of monetary policy will change that, either - and that's the tool of choice. It may help but it won't solve the problems. Japan shows that failure all over the place. We can learn from that. |
2016-04-15T03:50:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46286 |
| A good point. But see the next comment on sustainability. :-) Can they maintain it? | 2016-04-15T03:33:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46285 |
| Amen! | 2016-04-13T14:15:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/13/the-case-for-pragmatism/#comment-46275 |
| Amen! | 2016-04-12T16:28:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46271 |
| Yes, that was the original impetus - and it's still a good idea. I think that 0.2% is not something that will hurt anyone but it will raise a LOT of money. Since we don't seem to want to go back to corporate tax rates of the 1960s (when they were nearly double what they are today!) this would make a good substitute that also has a good side effect. | 2016-04-12T16:23:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46269 |
| It doesn't usually explain everything as well as it does other places. It does, however, explain far more than I am comfortable with - and to that extent we should be battling. But the system demands consensus, not warfare. | 2016-04-11T14:55:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46258 |
| I do agree, Republicans are frustrated, too. Will it really change with Clinton as President? I both think it has to and then see no reason why it will. Perhaps a Democratic Senate will improve things, but there is still the fillibuster rule. | 2016-04-11T14:55:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46257 |
| Thank you! (but why the sigh?) | 2016-04-11T03:25:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46250 |
| Right under "Thank you for sharing", after the article .... it should work. | 2016-04-11T03:24:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46249 |
| Troll. | 2016-04-10T03:12:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46231 |
| That would be filed under "other" | 2016-04-08T23:27:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46211 |
| That's where I go. I see no reason why corporate taxes need to have more exemptions or credits. | 2016-04-08T14:06:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46204 |
| I do think we have a lot in place for that, so I don't see that a complete overhaul or change is necessary. | 2016-04-08T14:05:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46203 |
| Thank you! I doubt there will be any interesting Americans on the list. There are too many easier ways for us to launder money here. We don't have to resort to international shell companies since we can set them up on our own. Usually it's only really dirty money that goes this route from here, which is to say drugs / sex trade / etc. |
2016-04-08T05:07:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46196 |
| I don't see anything happening until we have a change on the Supreme Court. First things first. I picked battles that I think are winnable, even if some are a bit of a stretch. | 2016-04-08T04:51:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46194 |
| Investments in infrastructure are far more important than defense unless we are actually at war. We aren't, and we spend far more than anyone else. I think it's completely justified to divert this money back home, yes. | 2016-04-08T04:50:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46193 |
| A very good point! Certainly, it's easier today to hide money in some ways - but it's also easier to find it. Do we simply know about it more? I think you may be right. Let me look into how I can quantify this, if I can. | 2016-04-06T22:47:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46151 |
| Today? Yes, it's kinda routine. :-) | 2016-04-06T22:30:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46149 |
| Yes, well, this is what happens when the whole world becomes very small very quickly. Between culture clashes and new ways to hide assets it's the new world (lack of) order. | 2016-04-06T22:30:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46148 |
| Of course. This is just the big playahs. | 2016-04-06T17:37:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46140 |
| A world government that has the ability to tighten this up doesn't have to be a dictatorship. But yes, this will continue without a global effort. And it will be ugly. | 2016-04-06T17:37:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46139 |
| Thank you! | 2016-04-06T17:36:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46138 |
| This is an international problem, with the US actors not really involved. We won't have the fodder we need for a good discussion on it. But Europe is lighting up over this, especially with a lot of details on Russia. | 2016-04-06T17:36:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46137 |
| Exactly. It's a "siege mentality" that doesn't do anyone any good. When the flashing lights arrive on the scene everyone - citizens and police alike - fear for their lives. Nothing good can possibly result. | 2016-04-04T16:26:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46090 |
| Yes. There are many places the system could go wrong, and the most important is probably training. Are the police getting the training they need in de-escalation techniques? I doubt it. But you raise the point that they may be getting training in exactly the wrong things, which I also fear is a contributor. We can't allow that. We have to insist on better. | 2016-04-04T16:20:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46088 |
| Excellent all around. Thank you. | 2016-04-04T15:47:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46085 |
| So let's make it something other than a "war zone" ... like maybe a community that is a good place to live in a well functioning city, perhaps? | 2016-04-04T15:16:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46082 |
| Your point about non-lethal force is well taken. I don't understand this, either. I have seen people very incapacitated by pepper spray (tasers seem like a bit much to me) so why is it not used more often? I don't think there is any acceptable reason why Jamar Clark died. There had to be alternatives. |
2016-04-04T15:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46080 |
| I do believe that our police are, generally, way over-worked and under-paid. That's not an excuse for this but I do think if we want the highest possible standards we have to set things up for that to happen. This includes the best people and the best training, but it also includes proper representation from the community they are policing and support services for the community so that problems don't get out of hand. This is a systemic problem and there is just not going to be one solution that cures it all. | 2016-04-04T15:11:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46079 |
| Thank you very much. I'm trying to turn the (justifiable) outrage into action here, so I hope I've added something to the discussion. | 2016-04-04T15:09:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46078 |
| How about Romeo & Juliet - two kids who know each other for about a week leave a trail of death. | 2016-04-02T00:53:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/01/on-wisconsin/#comment-46032 |
| I go with America first. Seriously. Trump might be great for our party but I really don't care. | 2016-04-02T00:52:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/01/on-wisconsin/#comment-46031 |
| Absolutely! | 2016-04-01T15:19:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/01/on-wisconsin/#comment-46019 |
| I don't think that younger people are ever going to go for a "Make American Great AGAIN" theme. They want a reboot, not a return. They don't have experience with a nation that ever worked well. | 2016-04-01T15:18:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/01/on-wisconsin/#comment-46018 |
| I will look into that. The US Dollar is increasing very rapidly again, which is indeed a problem for everyone. | 2016-03-30T22:50:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45988 |
| Yes, pretty much. | 2016-03-30T22:50:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45987 |
| It doesn't actually make sense, so not understanding it is a good thing. :-) | 2016-03-30T21:19:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45984 |
| I completely agree. I don't think the underlying weakness is a large concern. What they are going by, however, seems to be the lack of inflation - which is largely true. | 2016-03-30T21:18:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45983 |
| I am against this much signaling, yes, but Yellen wants a more open Fed. I think this will take my projection for a medium term drop in the 10yr bond, which we should otherwise end soon, to a longer-term drop stable below 2% net yield. It's currently 1.75-1.90% and it looks like it will stay there now. I don't see much upward pressure but we should look for downward pressure as money comes to the US from overseas. | 2016-03-30T15:48:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45973 |
| Oh, yes, indeed! Sanders does have a point and it needs to be made much more often. Spending nearly $700B a year on the Department of Defense alone, about $900B with all related State Department and Homeland Security issues, comes to about $7000 per household. That's a ton of money no matter how you look at it. | 2016-03-28T21:05:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/28/a-smaller-government-is-a-peaceful-government/#comment-45939 |
| Thanks! | 2016-03-28T21:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/28/a-smaller-government-is-a-peaceful-government/#comment-45938 |
| That's about it, yes. War is much more expensive than the social programs people fret about, which naturally makes me wonder about the opposition to the social programs - and gets back to the post last week on racism as a major driving force for all political discussion. | 2016-03-28T21:03:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/28/a-smaller-government-is-a-peaceful-government/#comment-45937 |
| That's what you get for being a voice of sanity and reason! :-) Thoughtful people don't get the attention they deserve on the 'net, but there are a lot of readers who don't necessarily speak up. Hang in there! I'm glad you're here and speaking up! | 2016-03-25T16:32:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45870 |
| Good question. It seems pretty simple, yes? | 2016-03-25T16:31:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45869 |
| There is a lot wrong. I think Paul Ryan's confession gets to the heart of the matter pretty quickly. Of course, I'll want to see him back that up. But at the very least he's recognized that you can't just say "no" to everything indefinitely and not expect a serious backlash. It's more pragmatic than moral. | 2016-03-25T15:28:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45866 |
| Thanks! That's what I'm here for. :-) | 2016-03-25T15:27:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45865 |
| Not so fast - there's still a lot of work to do to fix things. But we do know just what's wrong, and that's something. | 2016-03-25T15:26:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45864 |
| Thanks! | 2016-03-24T17:57:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/23/coopertition-2/#comment-45845 |
| I think it has always been this way but we didn't talk about it like this. There is always a collaborative element in how technology advances, even if it starts as mere copying what someone else did and then improving it. | 2016-03-23T19:28:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/23/coopertition-2/#comment-45831 |
| I am sure that tribalism, which is the root of racism, is common to all people everywhere. But this is the US and we have been living together for generations. We have gotten over our racist fears of Irish, Swedish, Italians, et cetera. Blacks? The system has so much racism built into it. We simply have to get past it one way or the other. | 2016-03-23T14:16:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45827 |
| By all means, reblog away, and thank you very much! | 2016-03-22T22:57:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45816 |
| I agree that "political correctness" is not a good thing - people have to be able to speak their minds. But we also have to be more respectful in general. That goes both ways, sure, but it's better for everyone when things are out in the open. The Trump rallies, for example, show everyone just who he is and who is backing him - that's better than a bunch of coded language, which is how it was done in the past. | 2016-03-21T17:37:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45794 |
| White people don't experience it, so we don't really understand what a poison it is. But it does affect everything - and that is the real problem. We can't talk about a single issue without it getting racist in some way. | 2016-03-21T17:36:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45793 |
| For each group, except African-Americans, it does get better gradually. But the deep racism has a poison that affects everyone. | 2016-03-21T17:35:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45792 |
| So here we are - which came first, the racism or the nonsense about "those people"? I'm pretty sure the racism came first, but they do reinforce each other. | 2016-03-21T13:51:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45785 |
| Yes, it is. But if you think about it this is entirely to be expected. Keep in mind that these rallies have a few thousand people at them, at most. And that Trump is polling less than half of the 24% or so who identify as Republican, which is to say 1 in 8 people overall. And they tend to be older. I do feel that this kind of backlash is understandable and needs to be confronted calmly and rationally. We know that his supporters are being fed a series of lies that they believe because they want to. That such a small number of people believe them is actually heartening, given the discourse we have in this nation. But we have to confront this calmly and reasonably. They are not people who are going to simply go away. |
2016-03-21T03:27:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45781 |
| You have an excellent point and have a very good leading indicator. I hope the blip downward at the end is reversed. You are right, we have not hit our stride yet. I'll accept this as a measure of when we are ready to enter a period of expansion. Excellent find! |
2016-03-21T02:21:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45779 |
| And as long as there is more demand for US Dollars out there we will have a deficit. It goes up with increased global trade, which is probably part of the reason that free trade has always been presumed to be good for the US - we've always like having a strong greenback. But I happen to think that we would probably benefit more by having a weak currency, assuming energy independence, because it would keep our good competitive. Every other nation thinks this is true, why don't we? So we may not always have a trade deficit if China gets its way and the Dollar isn't the global reserve currency for 85% of all transactions anymore. Why on earth China supports this, however, is something I'll never quite understand. They play the currency war as well as anyone else - except when they are playing the global superpower game. |
2016-03-19T03:38:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45750 |
| Probably not. Look at how we're still arguing over NAFTA 25 years after it was passed. There isn't a good way to measure the effects of these trade deals that is universally accepted. Personally, I like the methodology of the IIE, which matches the number of jobs related to export / import before the treaty was passed and then looks at how trade expanded. In the case of Mexico, our net imports from Mexico expanded slightly after NAFTA and our exports expanded a lot more - meaning we had a net gain. But, then again, Mexico tends to export lower value goods to us and I'm not entirely sure how it was all taken into account. Bottom line - these will always be up for interpretation one way or the other. What I am sure of is that the standard analysis, based on "We lost a lot of manufacturing jobs in the 2000s" is not valid. Many other things were happening that are summed up as "productivity increases". That seems to be the real issue we have yet to grapple with - not trade. |
2016-03-18T16:38:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45743 |
| That is pretty much what I'm thinking. I would have to re-read TPP to see how it stacks up in this view, but offhand it seems like a pretty standard open agreement without a lot of calls for worker advancement et cetera. No matter what nothing is going anywhere for a while, though, so it's a totally academic question IMHO. |
2016-03-18T15:27:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45740 |
| For the first question, it depends on what you mean by anti-American, but my guess is that in the biggest sense there aren't that many. Politicians want to create jobs in their district first and foremost. Raising money? It's important, but they do want to create jobs. As for the second part it really depends on what you think is improper. Transparency is the key to everything - keeping an eye on everything that is done. The internet age lets us do that much better but there is a ton of garbage out there clogging the information stream. |
2016-03-18T15:03:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45736 |
| But it's probably not the most important thing that has gone wrong lately. No new trade deals plus an increased focus on what we know is wrong would be good. | 2016-03-18T03:01:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45729 |
| That's true - extended supply chains have changed the mix. That could be blamed on trade agreements. But it also is an effect that will at least slow in the future as it also worked its way through the system. | 2016-03-18T02:04:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45725 |
| Ranked Choice Voting would be a good addition, actually. Something to think about, yes. | 2016-03-17T16:48:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45713 |
| Wow, that got long ... you hit something I have no good ideas about but feel is very important. | 2016-03-16T21:24:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45705 |
| Little was said about any anti-Mormon backlash in 2012, but I have trouble believing it wasn't an issue. I do wonder how many evangelicals left the top spot on the ballot blank. Since there is drop-off below that where people don't vote it doesn't look like any, but I agree that had to be an issue for some. The "Big Tent" parties are based on an idea that appears to be antique at this point - which is difficult. Our whole system is based on the idea that our politics can be compressed into two parties. A strong president form of government simply does not allow for a large number of parties - but that does seem to be where we are going. Things are fractured in politics as they are everywhere. I honestly don't know the answer but I do agree - the "party within a party" tendency is at least going to be a serious change. Centrist or even Rockefeller Republicans? Well, I don't know where you can go today. Rubio never seemed to have a chance - but I would have bet that in November he would play well. That's really pathetic. Sanders? One solid round of red-baiting and he would fold up quickly in a system that requires 50%. I really don't know about the long term for politics. What I do know is that taking things in 2016 sets up the 2020 redistricting and if I'm right at all, even a little, about things starting to move forward whoever is in power from this election will get a lot of credit and be in power for a long time. Thanks to Trump the Democrats should have a great claim to power - I swear he even puts the House into play. It's huge. |
2016-03-16T21:23:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45704 |
| Thanks! Context is everything today - very few outlets make a point of finding it and I do believe that is what is most important today. "I don't break news, I fix it!" :-) | 2016-03-16T20:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45701 |
| He's a good guy, just what I would think anyone would want in government regardless of whether you agree with him or not. | 2016-03-16T20:16:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45699 |
| Thanks! | 2016-03-16T18:10:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45695 |
| Yes, if it sounds too (stupid, ridiculous, bad, crazy) to be true it probably is. Caveat Lector, let the reader beware. Common sense still works - if only most of the writers out there had some! | 2016-03-16T15:48:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45690 |
| Nothing good can come of this. | 2016-03-16T15:47:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45689 |
| It is about the nation at some point, yes. | 2016-03-14T04:16:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45646 |
| I have to watch all of her show - I've only seen some - and I do agree. Every smart, concerned person has to be committed to turning down the noise at this point. Cold, hard facts and a quiet objectivity are indeed the way to go. Maddow has shown this, Kelly showed this, and I think a few others will as well. Time for the adults to step up. We will see what, if anything, Republicans have to offer this process. The disrespect for Obama is another thing. I would like to see some hardcore focus group work on this. It can't be playing well, can it? If it is, why is it? |
2016-03-14T03:22:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45642 |
| I do feel this can only get worse at this point. Last week I thought the media, through Megyn Kelly's hard work, had found a way to deal with the guy. Then he found a way to amp it all up. Not good. | 2016-03-14T03:20:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45641 |
| It's worth noting that at the end of the 1968 campaign, and I think 1968 can be taken almost as one single event in many horrible ways, the population wound up voting for the most establishment candidate running. All the noise eventually pointed us to Nixon, of all people. Can Clinton seize the situation the way he did, promising law and order? I doubt it, but that may be the direction she turns once she secures the nomination - which is to say if the polls next Tuesday are right and she winds up dominating the large states and swing states that are up for grabs. Then again, this is all getting so crazy it's really hard to tell what will happen. Is there any genuine establishment leadership? Is law and order a viable platform in all this? It's only likely to get crazier. We know that the conventions, both of them, have the potential to be real carnivals - possibly carnivals of violence. I do not in any way blame Sanders but there is a heavy "smash the system" contingent that is supporting him. They will not go quietly into the night. |
2016-03-14T03:18:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45640 |
| Next Tuesday we'll know for sure. If the polls are at all right (and I'm really not sure right now) it will be a huge sweep for Clinton. The gap will go from 200 to 450+. | 2016-03-11T17:36:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45606 |
| The Republican Party may actually be your best friend, then. :-) | 2016-03-11T16:55:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45604 |
| I've written about a lot of that before! It is a critical part of our world - not understanding half of what's going on around us. It's why people get so angry all the time, IMHO. | 2016-03-11T16:54:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45603 |
| It's all good - I ramble a bit too, ya know. :-) The Two Party System is really strange, if you think about it at all. A national "primary" would make a lot of sense. But this all involves some major changes in the Constitution that most sane people don't want to get into right now. How do we get good people into office? It's hard. They have to care about the party enough to move it in their direction, and that's a terribly "corrupting" process no matter what. It changes people - mostly making them a lot more cynical. Then again, real political skill is a good thing, IMHO, and teaching that can only improve the process. There is a lot to think about. Our strong executive bothers me at the core, for one, and I would love to have a "cabinet government" as I outlined some time ago with a broad array of elected executives. That would be more interesting and more open. A lot to think about here. |
2016-03-11T03:58:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45595 |
| You have a good point - there may be more problems. The short answer is that we can't really trust the polls. What we do know is that they have consistently under-estimated Sanders' support. Are they hitting up cell phones and/or reaching young people and traditional non-voters adequately? What models are being used to estimate likely voters? Are they asking people if they plan to vote, for example? You are right, there are probably other problems deep in these polls. The fact that the results among self-identified Democrats was about right from the poll-of-polls in Michigan tells me that the main bias came from the open primary. But it would be crazy to say that this is the only effect, yes. |
2016-03-11T03:53:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45594 |
| Absolutely. That's what transit projects are all about anymore - not actually moving people but "spurring development". That sounds great if you're the rider but tough if you're the horse. And we're the horse. Existing neighborhoods were built the way they were for a reason, and the strongest ones have a good visual appeal. They may be off a little in the best density possible, but the passage of time has proven them to be the most viable generally. It's what works. |
2016-03-10T17:32:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45586 |
| I am afraid we don't regulate the right things in the right way. Urban farming is really hard under current zoning - why? Why is mixed use so hard to put in? Granted, no one wants a factory plopped down next to them - or a huge sports bar. But aside from those uses, aren't there a lot of things like a dentist's office that would be OK? New buildings are all pretty green, so that is a trend for sure. I feel that this trend will only continue. But attached space is always greener in many ways, and density encourages transit. It's a question of the right density for stability in my opinion. |
2016-03-10T16:39:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45584 |
| That is my main concern, yes. They are applying formula development to a changing landscape and it may not be best. I could be very wrong, but I think it's worth thinking through and talking about. | 2016-03-10T16:36:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45583 |
| You're right - there has to be some need for these units. I see a lot of young Millenials in them and I fear that they will "outgrow" such units, but there are older people in them, too. It may work. No one is building condos now - the burn from 2008 is still hot. Some of these can convert if the market comes back, and many are being built so that this is reasonable. We will see. It's not that I think these units do not belong here, it's a question of scale. There are so many going in! I hope we're not over-doing it. And I think that flexible space is going to serve us a lot better, is all. |
2016-03-10T16:35:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45582 |
| It has in recent years, for sure. But we are seeing a lot of market-rate unsubsidized development going in to both cities lately, which is to say that they aren't extracting money from the system. That heartens me greatly. I think there is a need for a good zoning code, but I don't think we have it yet. When we got TN zoning along Seventh, legalizing the standard build of the last 150 years, I was greatly heartened and there seems to be good movement to the right things for the street. But ... the scale! Jeez. So much of it is so big. That's not good. But the era of big subsidy is mainly over and the less we look to large office towers the better IMHO. |
2016-03-09T15:51:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45562 |
| We're the same age, so we'll see what we make it to see. :-) I do think that buildings ultimately reflect the values of a society, so as our values and arrangements change we will see changes. I'm just trying to predict what they might look like, and my conclusion is that there are a lot of buildings that will be functionally obsolete if we keep changing as rapidly as we are. | 2016-03-09T15:48:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45561 |
| It doesn't necessarily regulate what is important in terms of noxious uses near residents, etc. | 2016-03-09T15:46:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45560 |
| Thanks. I haven't done anything partially baked or philosophical in a while, but this has been on my mind. At the Fort Road Federation we've had a lot of minor zoning variances for apartments come through and after a time I had to ask myself, "Is this really what the city is going to look like? Or should look like?" And it dawned on me that no, it probably won't and no, it probably shouldn't. | 2016-03-09T04:27:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45553 |
| Thanks! But this was an easy one to make, I think. Why is the headline U-3 unemployment not dropping? It's usually because more workers are coming into the labor force, which is to say that the fudge is pretty thick. U-6, the only unemployment that is consistent and reasonable IMHO, dropped to 9.7% as I predicted. But again that was easy once you have a +230k or so gain for the month. |
2016-03-04T19:24:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/04/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear/#comment-45503 |
| That is the key. I do expect the coming worker shortage to help. | 2016-03-04T18:41:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/04/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear/#comment-45500 |
| I'm an American - that appears to be a job for foreigners. | 2016-03-04T06:13:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/04/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear/#comment-45491 |
| Good plan! | 2016-03-04T04:03:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/04/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear/#comment-45487 |
| “Nixon had the unique ability to make his enemies seem honorable, and we developed a keen sense of fraternity. Some of my best friends have hated Nixon all their lives. My mother hates Nixon, my son hates Nixon, I hate Nixon, and this hatred has brought us together.” HST, 1994 |
2016-03-04T03:22:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45484 |
| Probably. Just wait until these kids are older - either they change their tune or this nation is goin' socialist. :-) |
2016-03-03T17:41:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45472 |
| I think a lot of people will agree with you on that. Republicans included. | 2016-03-03T17:40:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45471 |
| Sanders seems tired. He is experienced and he knows where this is going. He'll keep fighting but we can expect this to be more focused on defeating Trump and the issues he cares about. Clinton will do that, too. It is essentially over, yes, but it will be up to Michigan and Ohio to really seal it. |
2016-03-03T17:40:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45470 |
| The Republicans need to pull this together one way or the other. Cruz is worse for them than Trump if you ask me. | 2016-03-03T17:39:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45469 |
| Sorry for the comment delays - I see things were broken yesterday. It's fixed now. If you tried to post and were frustrated please let me know. | 2016-03-03T17:38:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45468 |
| A lot of Republicans are more comfortable with Clinton than they let on. Wall Street sure is. I do think that Trump cannot get more than about 40% absolute top in a general election, probably more like 25%. | 2016-03-02T15:02:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45455 |
| It's pretty funny, isn't it? But he's doing a good job of showing them what real leadership, at least intellectual / moral leadership, is all about. If only they had some appreciation for Clinton's abilities ... | 2016-03-02T06:09:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45452 |
| Sanders is a good guy. He knew what he was up against all along and is making his point as clearly as he can. He'll take what he can get and then stand very strong against the Republicans, who he knows are the real problem. I don't see any reason why the leaders of the party can't come together. The rank and file? It may not be so easy, but Bernie will lead the way. |
2016-03-02T06:09:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45451 |
| It is! The inside game is very much on as they work to bring it together. But apparently not quite yet! | 2016-03-02T06:07:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45450 |
| Warren is interesting - I would love to have a coffee with her. Kieth Ellison, Minneapolis Rep, endorsed Sanders. Franken endorsed Clinton. I think the rest sat it out. |
2016-03-02T06:07:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45449 |
| Yes, indeed! | 2016-03-01T17:38:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/29/54-counting-slowly/#comment-45436 |
| Sorry, I don't speak Italian! | 2016-03-01T17:38:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/29/54-counting-slowly/#comment-45435 |
| Thank you! | 2016-02-27T00:24:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45402 |
| I agree, but let's see how the establishment responds | 2016-02-27T00:24:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45401 |
| Excellent! This is a must-watch (warning - lots of bad language, but it has to be done that way!) | 2016-02-26T17:06:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45395 |
| I guess I did a bad job. This is a setup for what I do expect to come, which is an all-out assault on Trump. He has to scare the market movers before the resources to perform the operation will come in. That may be happening. Yes, I agree that it's late in coming. |
2016-02-26T16:50:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45393 |
| As long as it's with other people's money, yes. | 2016-02-26T16:22:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45391 |
| The question is how long this pause continues for - and how big of a correction does is cause. Two questions, really. | 2016-02-26T16:21:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45390 |
| Good link. This lines up with what I saw at Davos, which is that the highest level leadership is consistently calling for fairly radical change. | 2016-02-26T16:19:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45389 |
| His businesses went bankrupt four times. They are all independent operations, and he has many, so his side can claim they were inconsequential. I think it's very important. | 2016-02-26T03:32:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45378 |
| Well, sorry about that. I think the next one will be more to your liking - a busy life made me have to take a bit of a pause as I evaluate the array of progressive proposals and reactions to them - which I plan to work on over the weekend. Super Tuesday is really the name of the game right now. |
2016-02-26T03:31:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45377 |
| As for Trump spooking the markets, there are finally today a few decent articles on that. I may take on that topic. | 2016-02-25T15:13:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45369 |
| I'll let this ramble stand on its own. Thanks for it! | 2016-02-24T23:40:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45358 |
| Um, who or what are you talking about? | 2016-02-24T21:48:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45356 |
| That is the real reason, yes. | 2016-02-24T19:08:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45353 |
| That is very true. | 2016-02-24T18:44:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45350 |
| Yes, that's what I'm saying. And I expect spending on other things to indeed come around this year, as we've already seen over the holidays and in January. | 2016-02-24T18:43:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45349 |
| North Dakota has gone completely bust, too. It's not as bad in Texas and Oklahoma, since everything is more automated, but they are losing revenue. I think Alaska is really in trouble as well. | 2016-02-24T18:43:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45348 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-22T19:02:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45320 |
| My pleasure! | 2016-02-22T19:02:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45319 |
| Yup. But I don't see them reversing themselves on a 4-4. | 2016-02-22T18:35:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45315 |
| That would complicate an already difficult situation, but I expect this might happen. I do think Apple is doing what they should be doing as a corporation, at least at this stage, but how far this should go is another question. Apple does have a responsibility to their shareholders, after all. | 2016-02-22T17:06:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45313 |
| I have mixed thoughts as well, but generally side with Apple. Overall, I think it is utterly fascinating and decided to write a piece that helped people understand the basics of this complicated case. Thanks! |
2016-02-22T17:05:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45312 |
| Two very good questions, more like it! Since all intellectual property is described and created by law, I see no reason why it can't be subject to eminent domain like anything else - which is to say along with "just compensation". I do not think that once assigned by the US Government (acting as the USPTO) it can be simply revoked. I will try to look for examples. As for obstruction of justice, I believe that would be the charge if they fail to comply, yes. There may be something more elaborate for corporations, however. |
2016-02-22T17:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45311 |
| Ha! | 2016-02-21T22:25:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45299 |
| I'm so Gen-X I think everything will be better as soon as Boomers retire. Seriously, I do. I mean it. :-) |
2016-02-20T23:07:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45292 |
| What do we need a Federal Government for? I would say primarily for infrastructure, which we are way behind in. The system we have now short-changes it in so many ways, so I would say that this is a critical reform all around. The dividing line between what should be public and private could sort itself out a lot better if we understand the role and funding of infrastructure, if you ask me - along with some honest talk about what we spend on Defense. |
2016-02-20T23:06:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45291 |
| A good point. There is more interest in things like venture capital, too. All around I see investors going more with Warren Buffet's advice - invest in things you can see. But there are also investments in lifestyle more than just money. Resiliency is a good watchword all around. |
2016-02-20T16:40:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45287 |
| All in all, there's nothing wrong with America that can't be fixed by what is right with America. And the stock market isn't as important to the economy as people say, or even a reliable gauge of it. But it is important to investors, which is to say it winds up being important in the long run. So much of this is image and attitude. The deficit is both important and not important. Until we separate capital expenditures from ordinary expenses we'll never know how we really stand. How's that? |
2016-02-20T00:04:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45280 |
| So, you still haven't figured out that a Gen-Xer figures that everything gets better the year the Boomers retire, right? 'Cuz the easiest charge you can level is that I'm just a hater. :-) | 2016-02-19T23:28:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45277 |
| We're not that hard to get going, really. It's a question of what and why. | 2016-02-19T21:16:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45273 |
| Yes, absolutely. That's where the populism comes in, a totally apolitical political movement. A lot of Sanders' supporters are actually former Ron Paul supporters who just want to smash "the system". That's why I stressed getting involved, or at least speaking up, on very apolitical themes. Insisting that we do things well, with an emphasis on outcomes, would be more our style as a generation. Martin O'Malley should have caught on more, but didn't. |
2016-02-19T18:10:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45270 |
| China may need to take a pause, but the march towards being a superpower is real. The Yuan should indeed be a reserve currency - but that means they need to give up their desire for complete control over it. They aren't going anywhere with this until they understand they can't have it both ways. But today's growth is still impressive no matter what. What has changed is only the perception of China. It was over-bought and everything got crazy, yes. It still has a primitive banking system and lacks a lot of key infrastructure. But they will get there. |
2016-02-19T00:30:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45264 |
| It does work out in the long run. It is a casino in the short run, for sure. | 2016-02-17T21:39:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45253 |
| Sure, let's go with that. :-) Seriously, it's become very hard to tell when effects are global and ripple through the domestic economy and when they are isolated. My best guess is that anything extra-national that really spooks the markets - currency valuations, foreign exchanges, etc. - has a longer term effect on us but little to nothing short term. Then again, if foreigners are buying long-term treasuries like mad our rates go down and there is an immediate effect. So it's really hard to tell. What I see coming off the China meltdown is really nothing but positive - unless the USD really gains value. But even that is probably a longer-term problem much more than a short one. And we have so few employed in manufacturing that the effects there aren't going to be large. |
2016-02-17T21:35:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45251 |
| This piece is not about my candidate or yours, per se, but about the struggle in the party right now. I think it's a real and important struggle which is long over-due. Most importantly, whoever wins the nomination has to be in a position where we unite and can march boldly forward towards actually getting something done. And yes, we have to stand for something important first - which is why we are having this struggle. I see both candidates as having flaws, which is only reasonable. We're human. The experiences they both have are important and inform the progressive movement in different ways. This letter is more to the supporters of each candidate, addressing the need for unity and a clear platform when this is all over. Clinton supporters often don't "get" what Sanders' people are all about, and Sanders supporters often don't "get" the need for experience in the consensus based system we have. We have to understand each other and be very clear. That will probably come from leadership as we close ranks going into the general, but you and I both know that the Democratic Party has always relied on grass-roots leadership if it's going to stand for anything. And that has to be listened to as well. I'm much more worried about the process for us coming together with a solid agenda that moves us all forward than I am with the result at this stage. I wanted to outline the arguments we're having so that we can move them all forward in constructive ways. Right now, the fight is a good one. It's long, long over-due. If we can keep it productive and respectful we'll not only win but actually start moving forward. |
2016-02-17T18:20:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-45245 |
| Thank you! I'll stay on it. Looking good so far. As long as it doesn't actually fall apart between now and the end of the year I think we'll be fine. | 2016-02-17T17:13:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45242 |
| Good luck to you, I'll check you out! | 2016-02-17T16:10:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45239 |
| If the S&P500 breaks the support, that will be a storm. But it has really met strong resistance. That tells me that the market is pausing, not contracting. It will take news to change this. Probably big news. There's always a chance of that - look at the mess Syria is becoming, after all. But things really aren't that bad. |
2016-02-17T03:56:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45232 |
| That's where I'm at. | 2016-02-17T03:54:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45231 |
| Any engineer will tell you the glass is twice its optimal size! Don't sit there breathing through your mouth and catching flies - get up and dance! |
2016-02-17T03:54:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45230 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-16T18:18:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45217 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-16T18:17:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45216 |
| Thank you! | 2016-02-16T18:17:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45215 |
| I may just. I've been on the board of the local district council for many years. | 2016-02-15T17:50:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45198 |
| Thanks. :-) | 2016-02-15T17:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45197 |
| Elections have to matter a lot more than they do, I think. I don't see any other way. | 2016-02-15T17:49:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45196 |
| Yes, that is true. But I fear that the laziness is compounding the problem. A bias to action would at least break the jamup. But those in charge, at least here in the US, are very far out of touch and do not care. |
2016-02-15T01:04:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45188 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-12T18:57:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/12/give-peace-a-chance/#comment-45164 |
| I think that is the main reason for all this talk, yes. It's a way that otherwise disgruntled and unruly people can be kept in line. The only reasonable alternative is empowerment. That's what we need in our politics. |
2016-02-12T18:57:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/12/give-peace-a-chance/#comment-45163 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-10T17:17:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/10/lift-every-voice-and-sing-2/#comment-45122 |
| It was an interesting time and place to grow up, yes? | 2016-02-10T17:17:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/10/lift-every-voice-and-sing-2/#comment-45121 |
| Very much so. | 2016-02-08T19:14:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/08/no-more-games/#comment-45076 |
| I might very well. If it doesn't end up a bit we will have breached the 1858 low on the S&P500. That's not good at all. The next support is 1814, from two years ago. | 2016-02-08T19:14:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/08/no-more-games/#comment-45075 |
| That is exactly how I feel. But part of the problem is that stock prices got ahead of themselves. It's all in the PE, and when P goes up there's trouble. | 2016-02-08T17:42:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/08/no-more-games/#comment-45070 |
| Ha! Well, my pick lost (I really like Cam Newton) so I guess not. :-) | 2016-02-08T03:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/08/no-more-games/#comment-45048 |
| Still trying, eh? | 2016-02-07T20:52:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-45027 |
| Thank you! | 2016-02-07T20:51:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-45026 |
| Pretty much. :-) | 2016-02-05T18:50:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-44982 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-05T18:43:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-44980 |
| But it creates jobs! :-) | 2016-02-05T18:00:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-44977 |
| Thank you. Maybe we do need more fairy tales. :-) | 2016-02-05T16:09:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-44975 |
| I am starting to think that way. There was a time when I thought Rubio really was allright, but we have to look at what he has to say to get through the Republican primaries. It's not at all good. | 2016-02-03T21:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/03/but-what-about-those-republicans/#comment-44943 |
| Almost, but not quite, as funny as the guy who came in second whining that Cruz cheated somehow. They are all losers. Seriously. |
2016-02-03T21:03:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/03/but-what-about-those-republicans/#comment-44942 |
| He's been groomed for this for his whole life. It's been interesting. | 2016-02-03T16:13:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44935 |
| Yeah, that guy. We all have to stop saying his name! | 2016-02-03T16:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/03/but-what-about-those-republicans/#comment-44934 |
| I try to be relatively impartial, though everyone knows my bias and can read my schtick accordingly. | 2016-02-03T16:12:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/03/but-what-about-those-republicans/#comment-44933 |
| No. | 2016-02-03T02:44:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44921 |
| Probably is about right, yes. Coin flips all around! | 2016-02-02T20:14:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44915 |
| The debate continues! Seriously, it's all good at this point. | 2016-02-02T20:10:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44913 |
| There are problem people everywhere. I do not think that the "Bernie Bros" and other intolerant people are anything but a tiny minority, but they sure are vocal. I'm really sick of them, too, and I don't consider their talk personally all that insulting or threatening. White people of privilege do bother me, however. We have a few like that on the Clinton side but they have a tendency to be much more quiet. We'll work this out. I do believe that all the Sanders people have a good point. |
2016-02-01T20:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44895 |
| Thank you! And I totally, 100% agree with you! I came into this thinking, "Eh, it's Clinton's". I am now looking to see how we have a dramatically improved Clinton for the challenge. That's a big win. The leadership and the push we need from the Sanders wing is not something that necessarily has to be in charge to be effective - but it has to stay engaged! It's a lot like FDR to me all around. The Progressives made him a better President - and they never, ever let up. That's what we need, IMHO. |
2016-02-01T04:53:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44883 |
| I'm also not a lot of fun at parties. Video coming soon, too. :-) | 2016-02-01T04:50:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44882 |
| It was weird. Consumer spending is stronger than I thought, but industrial output really sank. A lot of that is oil production dropping to zip, but the strong dollar is not a good thing. | 2016-01-30T02:41:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44827 |
| That's allright, I'll come up with something else. :-) | 2016-01-29T20:57:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44819 |
| I hope it doesn't come to that (or look like that). | 2016-01-29T18:08:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44814 |
| I think you'll be happy with the result. But we never know until it happens. | 2016-01-29T16:41:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44811 |
| It is the young people's world, and I am sure they will make a good one when they get a chance. As for the last statement, well, I think this is about a lot more than just who we elect at the top - I still want a good manager first and foremost. | 2016-01-29T16:41:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44810 |
| It is strange. I admit it. Now that I'm used to the caucus system I like it because it encourages activism, not just voting. But yeah, it isn't very open at all. | 2016-01-29T16:40:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44809 |
| And that's what it means to be a real "progressive"! | 2016-01-29T16:39:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44808 |
| Not happening, sorry. :-) | 2016-01-28T18:11:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44784 |
| That is indeed why we love you. :-) | 2016-01-27T21:40:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44772 |
| Equities markets are kind of like petulant teens - if the Fed Chair doesn't give them enough attention they whine. Yellen doesn't care about them and they know it. Should she care more? My money is still on "no", but I can see where you'd have a different opinion. The out of sync nature of the whole world is indeed a problem. The developing world is also out of sync right now with a wide variety of different issues plaguing each of the BRICS. Nothing really makes sense. So there is indeed risk as money moves around so freely. There is little doubt in my mind that large-cap companies are going to feel some pain from China, yes. But what does that do to the rest of the US economy? Given that small and medium companies have been the drivers of growth since 2008 and the influx of a lot of new venture capital I'm frankly not all that concerned. I do see turnover, yes, but in terms of what benefits the US and its population I just don't see a lot of risk. When money comes back from China it will probably flow into a wide variety of things including safe real estate and maybe some more venture capital so what really is the downside? Will China have a hard landing? Soros thinks so. I'm more worried about the resulting political turmoil from that than anything economic. |
2016-01-27T21:04:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44770 |
| That would probably be best, yes. But it's hard to ignore a big downturn (which this isn't yet) and a change in momentum (which this isn't really yet either). What was my point? :-) | 2016-01-27T18:29:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44766 |
| I'd like to go back to the most recent Davos World Economic Forum, which I wrote about last week. The leaders of the world clearly "get it". They know that what we have is not sustainable and isn't going to carry us into the next wave - what they call the Fourth Industrial Revolution. So where is it all really going? They didn't have that many answers, frankly. A lot of good questions but that was all. What struck me is that they are trying. I don't know how much that counts but it was heartening to know. |
2016-01-27T16:02:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44763 |
| I feel obliged to learn more about China, but to be honest I've only recently run into people writing about how things really work there. It's utterly fascinating - it feels pre-industrial almost. It is worth putting that one together. How they got as far as they did with essentially no financial infrastructure is rather amazing. But it is all centrally planned, so the money follows the edicts. |
2016-01-27T15:59:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44762 |
| Yes, housing followed the bubble. There was a small retrenchment but the real bubble came 2004-2007. As for the World Economy ... you are right. 100%. There are walls between countries, but they are thin. People don't cross them easily but money and materials do. Supply chains don't change overnight, but they do move. I do not know exactly how to take into account the world economy versus ours. We are clearly doing much, much better than Japan and Europe for the Developed World prize, but the Developing World comes and goes. Mexico is doing well in part because we are, in part because the rest of the hemisphere is. So it's perfectly valid to say, "You haven't taken into account global transfers" or some such and you'll have a point. This is an issue that my read says even the Fed doesn't know what to do about. So yes, let's talk about that. |
2016-01-27T04:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44750 |
| OK, fair enough. But notice that we've reached the point where something is the "biggest since 2000" and not 2006? It's now the benchmark. |
2016-01-27T03:40:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44748 |
| Manufacturing is still a problem and will be as long as the Dollar is this strong - I will feed my troll this one. That's a potentially big problem. But it's such a small part of our economy now it matters much less than before. Where it hurts is in opportunity for young people that pays decent. | 2016-01-27T01:36:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44743 |
| I think it's good to have your own troll. It means you've gotten somewhere. We'll see if the Fed raises again this month, but I think there will be a pause. As for Yellen, well, I still believe her over you. So there. Oh, and those declining labor force participation rates? That's the secret, man, the real secret. They really area good thing. :-) |
2016-01-27T01:34:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44742 |
| Yes! And that is what is (slowly) happening (way too slowly, but yeah). It's why I see things coming back by the end of the year. | 2016-01-27T01:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44739 |
| That's probably what will happen. | 2016-01-26T18:07:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44720 |
| It might be in some ways. But at least they would know who is in charge to complain to. They would also know up front more information that people care about - stops, schedules, etc. I imagine such an agency being more gradual about improvements - installing a bus line first and then as it grows in popularity proposing an upgrade. That would almost certainly be more popular than what is done now. |
2016-01-25T19:58:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44700 |
| Our system for creating transit here is indeed profoundly broken. It has to be the reason why a streetcar is listed at $50M per mile when everywhere else it has been installed at $25M per mile. And the Green Line at $100M per mile is inexcusable. | 2016-01-25T19:56:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44699 |
| It's all so terribly frustrating. Redesigning a city takes a much bigger effort than this - it's a commitment that has to stretch far beyond one project. Ultimately, when we talk redevelopment, it's about what kind of redevelopment and where. Big box apartments all along Seventh? No, I don't think so. To talk about redevelopment without a clear vision is suicide for a city, in my opinion. |
2016-01-25T18:08:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44695 |
| That is one problem, but I think the main problems are the cost of what we put in (usually double what they would be anywhere else) and the time it takes to get anything in place. Both of these are related to the ad hoc nature of the system we use for development. However, part of me doesn't want to speed anything up at all because bad decisions will be made. An agency that can make longer term decisions is needed first and foremost to me. |
2016-01-25T18:06:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44694 |
| Thank you! I didn't get into the cronyism which has been a feature because I want to fix the problem more than anything. I want accountability first and foremost. That will solve everything. | 2016-01-25T16:43:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44690 |
| Thanks, Kent. You've been on top of this all the way and you know what's going on. It's getting more than a little crazy. My point is that we can't just say "We need a project here" and put something down that will work effectively. We need a long-term commitment and accountability all the way through. The system we have just isn't designed for that. We have to get there somehow. |
2016-01-25T16:42:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44689 |
| Thanks! |
2016-01-24T19:56:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44668 |
| It's OK, we still have a system where nothing can possibly get done - unless it's obvious. Really obvious. :-) | 2016-01-22T17:47:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44644 |
| Two possibilities. One is that the problems are really hard, the other is that it will take a new generation that is not tied to the old to make progress by just throwing everything to the wind. I say it's a little of both. I don't want to throw everything out - but I think we'll wind up throwing out a lot. Maybe even some good stuff, but it's up to us older people to guide the process - probably not lead it, though. It's one of the things to watch as Clinton's full team comes into play and/or her opponent. Rubio is still very interesting when you think about things this way. |
2016-01-22T17:46:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44643 |
| Absolutely! It would be a great gig. | 2016-01-22T17:40:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44639 |
| That would be a stretch, but maybe some. This movement has been rolling through Europe - and the election of Ed Miliband as UK Labour leader was probably more of a watershed event. But that this movement, now quite global, resonated through the US with Sanders' followers is probably important, yes. I have to give him some credit. However, the threat of nativist reactionaries like Trump (or le Pen and Farage) is also causing the mainstream liberal left to take notice as well. The finance people clearly fear that as much as any other disaster. |
2016-01-22T17:03:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44636 |
| No, I see that. I see us picking up while the emerging markets slow (but don't stop) their convergence. Globally there is a lot of good reason for concern. | 2016-01-22T16:02:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44634 |
| I think you're being hyperbolic. :-) |
2016-01-22T00:05:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44615 |
| It's good if it builds capacity we need, it's horrific if it builds capacity we don't need. | 2016-01-21T17:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44611 |
| A good point - I have heard that a lot. I also believe that sports teams are great places to launder money - huge cash flow in actual cash, paper losses all over, etc. | 2016-01-21T00:56:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44600 |
| A very, very good point. The idea that guns are the solution to everything I think only highlights how totally irresponsible and irrational we've become. I would think that a focus on safety and knowing what you are doing would calm this weird culture down some, but I may be wrong. It's strange at best, but really dangerous. | 2016-01-21T00:43:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44598 |
| I plead the fifth amendment. :-) | 2016-01-20T23:42:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44594 |
| Yes, this just seems like way too much all around. | 2016-01-20T23:41:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44593 |
| I'm not much into that. It is interesting, but I think other people have that nailed down way better than I ever could. | 2016-01-20T19:59:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44582 |
| Indeed, they are. | 2016-01-20T17:49:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44576 |
| Yes! It was the most important thing I found with this tool. Also, Arizona could go blue with the same voting pattern. That would be a big deal as well. | 2016-01-20T17:07:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44574 |
| That's what I feel, too - that they aren't proposing anything grounded in reality and are only whipping people up based on emotional issues. As much as I criticize Sanders, for example, I at least acknowledge the reality of what he's talking about. The Democrats have a solid corner on "real" issues this year, for better or worse, and I do think that the middle class people with a sense of reality will acknowledge that in time. |
2016-01-20T16:23:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44571 |
| The velocity of money is starting to turn around. That's one very good sign. | 2016-01-20T04:26:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44554 |
| Actually, WWII did not end the Depression - GDP had returned to 1928 levels by 1938. :-) But yes, the space for "conservatism" has been limited because the world has been changing rapidly. When that pace accelerated it increased the demand for leaders that would somehow slow the pace - something no one could possibly deliver on. They tried neo-conservatism and then a very based angry .... I don't know what this is right now, to be honest. Libertarianism is a kind of progressivism in that it describes how progress is made. It's not about keeping things the same at all. So as that has taken over the minds of young otherwise "conservatives" there is no place for a whole lot of what's going on. |
2016-01-20T03:53:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44552 |
| Thanks. But stay tuned for the 2017 that follows all the weirdness that will come this year. :-) | 2016-01-20T03:50:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44551 |
| Exactly. I was thinking of writing on this, but I honestly have no insight as to how it's happened. There is a need to pull the Democratic Party to something like a progressive position. I have a feeling that you and I would agree on about half to 2/3 of what that means, but the point is that someone has to stand for progress in this country. We have to move forward in this time of change. To me, that's all about a new generation taking more power - which I think is what we more or less should be betting on one way or the other in this election. |
2016-01-20T03:50:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44550 |
| I could read some Thurber if you'd like ... (that's an obscure joke ...) |
2016-01-20T00:44:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44544 |
| Glad you liked it, then! | 2016-01-19T15:47:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44538 |
| Same here. I feel a little hesitant to be dogmatic about it, given that I was a white boy going through this. But I felt that in the end it was better for white people than black - like nearly everything. | 2016-01-19T01:51:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44526 |
| A lot are going this week. Tough week. | 2016-01-19T00:17:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44524 |
| I hope we can get over it. We have to at least try. | 2016-01-19T00:15:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44522 |
| I can appreciate that. I don't know that I would call this year "progress" as much as something that we can build on if we want to. If I'm right about a coming prosperity there may be a chance to actually make progress. 2015? No, not really. | 2016-01-18T19:12:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44517 |
| No, but some personal history. I was in the first class integrated by court order all the way from Kindergarten in Dade County, Florida (1983). I learned a lot as a kid about race. Integration was good for us white people - I don't know if it was as good for blacks, however, as it tended to break up the community. | 2016-01-18T16:35:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44515 |
| Racism is far from our sole problem, but as a nation with a lot of mixing it's certainly been more of an issue here. Our racism also flies directly in the face of our high ideals, which highlights the racism especially. It is a lot more than blacks, of course, but the constant and enduring struggle of Black America is a festering sore that never seems to heal. And that it's been with us forever makes it seem like it's just who we are. It can't be. We have to be better. |
2016-01-18T01:15:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44502 |
| Beyond cold. We is below zero! | 2016-01-17T01:04:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44472 |
| Or they blow it on "infrastructure" they don't need. |
2016-01-16T01:21:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44460 |
| Yes, there's always that possibility. :-) Seriously, it could be a big issue but I honestly doubt it. The worst thing I can see happening is general upheaval in China creating a massive refugee crisis. | 2016-01-15T21:17:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44453 |
| The size of this problem is huge - and its why comparisons to the collapse of Japan are difficult. But it still should go about the same way, which is to say a huge investment in America and at least 10 years of very good times. | 2016-01-15T21:16:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44452 |
| A very, very good point. We were right all along and should have seen this coming. | 2016-01-15T21:16:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44451 |
| Yes! Unless it gets a lot worse, which is always a possibility. :-) | 2016-01-15T16:48:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44444 |
| Yes. On the one hand, I don't see why US stocks are tanking on this because we really can only benefit. On the other hand, this is a huge change and no one knows what risk is really out there. So we have a short-term panic with the potential for a big longer-term gain. | 2016-01-15T16:24:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44442 |
| There is a lot going on around the world, but what matters is that the US is still fundamentally sound. That will come back into play after a bit. But this flight from China is a big event and it does represent risk all around. | 2016-01-15T15:39:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44440 |
| A good rebuttal to many of my points. I do honestly believe that Clinton is the most qualified and best person for the job, but I see why people to the left of me disagree. If you honestly think the most important issue today is income inequality than Bernie is definitely your candidate. I happen to think that with a few key reforms here and there the problem will work itself out very shortly. | 2016-01-15T03:31:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44430 |
| Good call on not watching teevee. It rots yer mind - except for cartoons, that is. :-) Yes, getting out of gridlock is what I think is the most important thing. I do believe that an active Congress will wind up engaging people, which is to say that nothing too stupid will happen. We need a lot of serious reform in many areas to set up the next economy! |
2016-01-15T03:29:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44429 |
| Thanks! | 2016-01-13T17:56:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/13/the-faith-of-bach/#comment-44399 |
| Yes! And when I feel him next to me, smiling, I know my friend is with me. The stories? Every piece is a different one, every piece is a moment or emotion that cannot be described any other way. | 2016-01-13T17:41:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/13/the-faith-of-bach/#comment-44397 |
| Yes, indeed. I am more of a fan of the Passion of St John for many reasons, but both are incredible. I am more of a Bach fan than I even let on here - I've spent my life studying his work. |
2016-01-13T00:47:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/13/the-faith-of-bach/#comment-44377 |
| It is. The principle is getting things done. Taking a stand isn't enough - there are people suffering out there. | 2016-01-12T16:02:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44368 |
| A good point. The office changes everyone so it might actually be interesting to see what happens. Well, maybe we'll see. :-) I am pretty sure we'll elect the Democrat, whoever that winds up being, so this could be a really wild year. |
2016-01-12T04:19:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44356 |
| We're at least thinking of the same problem - Congress. I think the Dems will retake the Senate, so I'm not too worried. But the House ... not likely to take that. Part of the reason I support Hillary is that I can imagine her and Paul Ryan making a deal to actually get something done. That may frighten you more, and I'd understand that, but there is so much that we obviously have to get done in the way of reform for the next generation and the next economy that I'm not too worried. But, no matter what, I want to see an energized and engaged progressive movement taking over the national dialogue. Nothing good will happen without that, no matter who we elect. I'll go as far as to say it almost doesn't matter who we elect without that. And, to make it clear, if Sanders does pull this off I'll happily support him and do what I can to be sure that Minnesota goes for him! |
2016-01-12T04:16:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44355 |
| No, I'll sellout. Pretty cheap, too - have a mortgage to pay. BTW, know anyone who might spring for a sponsorship? | 2016-01-12T04:12:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44354 |
| I hope so - FDR at least had a Congress on his side! :-) | 2016-01-11T23:32:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44344 |
| We'll take that. :-) | 2016-01-11T23:32:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44343 |
| I agree, it's risky at best. But I do think it's going to happen. There is a political earthquake in the works, so we'll see how that goes at the start of 2017. As for the turnaround, well, once we approach full employment you have to agree everything does change. And I do see that. So it's not so much about the cycles, which should NEVER happen like clockwork, but the underlying other changes. |
2016-01-11T23:32:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44342 |
| Sanders would have been much more interesting to me 8 years ago, yes. We need a leader for the Year Everything Changes and beyond. Keep up with my pet theories, will ya? :-) | 2016-01-11T20:15:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44332 |
| I agree all around, except there have been times I have thought Jeb! was OK as well (only a few). I'll eagerly vote for any of the Democrats. | 2016-01-11T20:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44331 |
| There is no doubt she has experienced that through her whole life. I think it's what made her strong. | 2016-01-11T20:13:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44330 |
| Clinton is a behind the scenes negotiator first and foremost, which shows in her public speaking. That is both her great strength and her biggest flaw, I say, and I think a strong cabinet that draws her out into the open will do her a world of good. Sanders' experience has been almost entirely legislative. He's good at that, and he is an important figure without any doubt. But I make a distinction between legislative and executive - I think Obama's weakness as an executive shows the difference clearly. If Sanders had been Governor of Vermont I genuinely would be much more excited about him. That may seem strange but it's really true. As an executive you have to do a lot more than talk, you have to make things happen and see them through. |
2016-01-11T20:12:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44329 |
| Yes, in the end "value" and "values" are the same word. We have to seek the value we really want economically as well as socially. | 2016-01-08T19:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44244 |
| That's what I'm seeing, too. There are a lot of jobs out there. | 2016-01-08T19:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44243 |
| It is better today. But the 10yr remains low at 2.14% and I bet is heading lower. | 2016-01-08T19:03:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44242 |
| I think this is the wave of the future for a lot of reasons - your experience is probably the best one. | 2016-01-08T18:56:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44237 |
| I don't really know. I can tell you the unemployment rate for 20 year olds is much lower, in the range of 4.6%. | 2016-01-08T18:55:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44236 |
| There is upward pressure on wages and it will continue. Companies will try to keep salaries low where they can, but they can't anymore. So once the thinking starts to change we can only hope that companies will start looking at higher wages the way you do - we hire the best, we pay the best. |
2016-01-08T16:15:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44231 |
| We are in the same part of the Midwest, so there is a common culture. But the primary difference is this: In Minnesota, the definition of a "small town" is a crossroads with a gas station, a bar, and two churches. In Wisconsin, the definition of a "small town" is a crossroads with a gas station, a church, and two bars. |
2016-01-08T00:40:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44210 |
| I do agree that the real problem is a social one - we honestly think violence is natural and solves problems. That has to change. We can't legislate away gun violence overnight, I'm sure. We might be able to change the culture gradually. That's why I would like to change the emphasis away from the gun as an object and towards the person holding the weapon. It doesn't seem like a lot, I'm sure, but I think over the long haul it will help get a handle on this idea that guns are some kind of solution. Training is always the way to self defense, gun or not. You don't need a gun for nearly all situations anyone will find themselves in. I'd like to start there and work out. But I don't expect an overnight miracle, no. You are right about how sick our culture has become. |
2016-01-06T18:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44185 |
| I think a universal permitting system based on the standards now used in many states for concealed carry would do that. In other words, you have to prove you already passed the background check before you can buy anything. The NRA would hate this, of course, but I think the public would go along with it at this point. |
2016-01-06T16:24:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44180 |
| That is the problem, yes. I think that given there is a rejection rate for CC permits there are people who don't make the cut. But they can still own a gun even if they can't concealed-carry it. I think the standard should be that high just for ownership. | 2016-01-06T16:23:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44179 |
| I think a similar system is in place in many states for a CC permit. So why not have a permitting system? What's wrong with that? If you don't have the right kind of ID with the right permits on it any gun sale is illegal. That doesn't cut out illegal sales, of course, but it starts changing the emphasis onto training and skills - which I think is inherently more important. | 2016-01-06T01:12:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44169 |
| Yes, indeed. Also, he's been dead a long time - kind of like the generation of Saudi kings who weren't power-hungry spoiled playboys. The more I think about this the more I realize that this is just another example of too much money in the hands of stupid people. That seems to be a big problem lately. |
2016-01-06T01:10:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44168 |
| With friends like these, who needs enemies? | 2016-01-06T01:09:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44167 |
| You know. there are three big powers in the region - Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The first two are nominally our "allies" - but without any doubt the most contentious of any allies we have. Iran is supposedly our greatest enemy. However, I have to say that I have far more respect for them as a nation because they will at least look us in the eyes before they tell us to go screw ourselves. Our supposed "allies"? They both view us as their clients, to use Alan's term. I'd rather deal with Iran all in all, thank you. |
2016-01-04T17:45:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44138 |
| They would just assume run US oil out of business, yes. They prefer it when we are dependent on them. And, we should say over and over again, we are not. | 2016-01-04T17:42:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44137 |
| Exactly. They have dug themselves a terrible hole right now and do not seem to understand it. And they are indeed causing a lot more trouble than they ever used to. | 2016-01-04T16:23:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44135 |
| Yes. This will require tremendous leadership to get through. | 2016-01-04T15:08:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44131 |
| I agree that we are more their clients - their mercenary force. At least, we have been so far. We can't do that, especially in a Sunni/Shia fight. We've been played. We have our own major sources of oil now and don't have to let that happen. |
2016-01-04T15:08:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44130 |
| We also created Saddam Hussein and Hosni Mubarak. Our record is horrendous. But this is not our fight, though it would be easy to suck us into it. We have to pull ourselves out of this and this mess has to be the line. The new aggressively assertive Saudi Arabia is a terrible force for instability and it will only lead to much worse than the horrors we've already seen. |
2016-01-04T03:10:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44114 |
| It is a matter of risk, not size. Properly evaluating risk is the key to ANY free-market (or even capitalist :-) ) enterprise and that seems to be getting more difficult these days. But it's the cornerstone of the new regulation in place since the fall of Lehman, et al, and it has to be that way. I think it is favorable to have smaller banks for many reasons. We have a belief that banks should be able to fail and the rest of the world can move on. But there are other ways of handling that strange attitude, mainly through insurance. That and the requirements for quality assets that only get tougher as banks get bigger are good approaches, IMHO. But yes, it comes down to humans in the end. In a rush to get higher returns people who are incentivized to produce will do dumb things. Aggressive behavior is also an issue when the stakes get really high and the only employees who can handle the mad rush are young men on the make. There's a lot to think about here. The more I think about it "big" isn't necessarily the most important problem. But ... the appeal of "small" is pretty obvious. |
2015-12-29T16:11:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-44013 |
| On aspect of the op-ed I didn't tackle was the assertion that banks choose the people who work there. This was interesting because the recent selection of Kashkari as the new President of the Minneapolis Fed shed a lot of light on the process. His selection came from a committee comprised of the Board members who were specifically NOT bankers. And they selected a person with banking experience, yes, but a lot of non-banking experience as well. Some of the Fed regionals are more community minded than others. In St Louis, for example, Bullard has pioneered many expansions of community banking. Is the Fed politicized? I say no more than it was at its founding - and there are many good examples of it being much more open since Yellen took control - a process started by Bernanke. Could it be better? Yes, and we should encourage these efforts. A greater presence demands it. But to conflate the areas where there are definite problems with decisions like raising the Fed Funds Rate and Glass-Steagall is just irresponsible. Further, this "audit the Fed" talk is fine enough as far as it goes but it seems very unlikely that it could produce anything given how open the Fed's books are now for anyone to see. Sanders' comments alone are fine as far as they go. Questioning the Fed's influences is always good, yes. Removing some of their regulation power is probably called for, yes, and it will only help them be more independent. Where I have a problem is not as much in what Sanders said as the response I'm seeing from his supporters. And re-reading Sanders' op-ed I have to say that the conflation of many different things appears to be deliberate demagoguery for his base that Sanders should have known would fuel some of this lingering John Bircher / Libertarian nonsense. That's really disturbing to me. A world without the Fed is a world where the big banks have essentially unlimited power. As this piece is titled, be careful what you wish for. |
2015-12-28T17:42:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-44004 |
| You are far from the only one. The more I think about this the more frightened I am. I do believe, on the right at least, they are talking about a return to a rigid gold standard, yes. On the left I don't think they have imagined anything yet - which may be worse. |
2015-12-28T16:18:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-44002 |
| That should be lesson #1, yes. But this level of grandstanding from Sanders is more than a little disturbing to me. I'm afraid of how much conspiracy theorizing has penetrated the young "progressives", really left-libertarians. And I really think Sanders knows quite a bit better than this article. Why is he throwing his supporters more red meat when he should be reaching out, BTW? Isn't the goal to reach more voters, not just keep energizing your base? There's a lot here I don't get, but I can assure you that this op-ed was a purely political document. And yes, politicizing the Fed is damned dangerous. |
2015-12-28T14:26:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-43999 |
| Peace, love, and happiness? | 2015-12-28T14:24:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-43998 |
| Well, then. :-( I'm not against taking a close look at the Fed, but I am very wary of politicizing it or, even worse, getting rid of it. We need a public agency that is ultimately responsible and we need the liquidity of a reserve system. The Fed was a key victory of Progressives and we can't forget that. Far, far too many people have - and that really bothers me. |
2015-12-28T00:43:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-43989 |
| That did come out a bit strange, didn't it? Merry Christmas! | 2015-12-23T21:38:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43956 |
| Boring can be good! | 2015-12-23T21:38:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43955 |
| That's what I hope the break does. We do need to calm down, yes. | 2015-12-23T16:34:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43950 |
| Thanks! | 2015-12-23T16:33:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/21/starts-with-an-idea/#comment-43949 |
| Merry Christmas, and thanks! | 2015-12-23T16:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43948 |
| Merry Christmas to you, too! | 2015-12-23T16:33:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43947 |
| Absolutely. Perhaps that's the message to start with. But while we can educate the next generation easily we have to think about how to reach the adult population Better consumers would have a lot more power and put an end to a lot of bad behavior quickly, IMHO. | 2015-12-21T16:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/21/starts-with-an-idea/#comment-43928 |
| Active shareholders - a huge topic I've never been able to even get started with. But I do believe that it's really critical. I have no idea where to start, though! | 2015-12-21T16:12:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/21/starts-with-an-idea/#comment-43927 |
| I hear ya. But given that we know that financial education is so far behind there is a good place to start. Perhaps education consumers will first demand systems that are easier to understand - right now, I get the feeling that they are so used to the idea that it's all a mystery that they don't even really try. If we can just get over that we'll have something. | 2015-12-21T03:46:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/21/starts-with-an-idea/#comment-43920 |
| There has been inflation in some key areas. Generally, however, it's not what it used to be. There is a lot of talk that the basket of goods used to evaluate what inflation is needs to be seriously re-evaluated. | 2015-12-18T04:26:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43865 |
| It happened, right on schedule. | 2015-12-18T04:24:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43864 |
| They did! :-) | 2015-12-18T04:24:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43863 |
| I thought you said May the fourth, not January the fourth. Wait, let me get my glasses ... | 2015-12-18T04:24:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43862 |
| Or anything? | 2015-12-18T04:23:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43861 |
| Then I'm doing my job well! :-) Perhaps I should say more about faith. Mine is pretty simple. Be good to each other and the rest will follow. :-) |
2015-12-14T14:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/14/charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-43826 |
| I think it's a very old song, in at least one form or another. It's also a Winter song that does not mention Christmas at all! So anyone can use it as long as there is snow. (we have none this year!) | 2015-12-14T14:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/14/charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-43825 |
| Christmas is so complex as a holiday - from its pagan origin to the spotty way it's celebrated among Christians to the modern commercialism - that it's always hard to know just what to make of it. Where I always go is "You shall know the just by their deeds." To me, this season really brings out the best and worst in us and lets us know who really "gets it". :-) |
2015-12-14T14:44:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/14/charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-43824 |
| I fear that, but the reaction to this has been so heavy that I don't think we will go any further for a while at least. But I offered "South Park" as an example because their "line" does indeed move a bit every year simply because they find it and dance on top of it, one foot just over the "line". | 2015-12-11T17:31:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43800 |
| Wow. There's a lot there, and thank you for it. We cannot discount the feelings of his followers. Our "leaders" have done a terrible job for a long time in one of the most essential features of leadership in a democratic-republic, which is to say making sure that the people are really with them. Let's take the flip-side for a moment - Bernie Sanders. Someone has to tell the truth as they see it if we're ever going to get anywhere! For many people, Trump is "the truth". There are a LOT of problems we've allowed to fester. Someone has to do something! I always think back to the "Contract With America" in 1994 - I do believe that the turning point for Gingrich came not so much in winning conservatives but with the sliver of centrists - maybe 10% of the voting population - that figured, "They have a plan and no one else does, why not give them a shot?" There's a cool logic in this, one supported in many ways by our deepest traditions. It's practical. Why not? Well, there are these moral imperative "lines" if you want one reason why not. Where are they? What do they look like? Until this came up I wasn't sure there were any lines anymore. Bounded chaos, bounded practicality, bounded patience. At some point it all comes down to understanding the boundaries. I'm a centrist by nature - I always come down the middle if there's any possible way to do it. Balance and harmony, that's me. America? Ha! We're a dynamic nation that always strikes out into undiscovered country. But we still have lines. There are still limits. I'm just not the guy that will find them. Matt and Trey are, and that's very cool. I like them a lot. |
2015-12-11T17:30:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43799 |
| Yes! Satire doesn't invite us to join the world - it stands apart from it. It tells people that "the in-crowd is over here" on a bad day, and on a good day manages nothing better than "it's all hopelessly screwed up, all ya can do is laugh!" I think we're largely unprepared to deal with reality and the more we go down this rat hole the harder it will be to climb out to the harsh light of day. That doesn't mean I don't find "South Park" to be hilarious. But to me it's more of a dessert than a good meal. I need more in my diet. |
2015-12-11T17:22:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43798 |
| I think I can say with confidence that 35% of all voters have definitely fascist leanings, yes. How they got to that point is another conversation, and one we should have, but I think we should be worried about it. And most Muslims do indeed live in nations best described as fascist, yes. A kind of national or islamic state terror oriented regime bent more on control than the welfare of the people. That has a lot to do with how we got where we are, for sure! As for this "line" that we seem to have crossed. It's not my "line", it's one set by the media and by general culture. The reaction to this part of Trump's message has been unlike all the previous things that I thought were pretty damned Nazi. I'm amazed by this, frankly. So this is the line, huh? Interesting. As for lightening up, there is a lot to be said for making fun of him more than wringing hands, I'll grant you. Another lesson from "South Park". And yes, there is still a loooong way to go before anyone votes. So we probably should never take this too seriously - the voters will take care of this at some point. I do trust them. But why this reaction now? I'm as much amazed as anything. I should have written this piece more with that tone in mind. Next time, I promise. :-) |
2015-12-11T17:19:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43797 |
| The hard line, the cultural line, is probably different from yours. I find it fascinating that it is at excluding a whole religion from entering the country - I did not see that coming. But yes, there have been many lines crossed ahead of this. Perhaps it's more of a "straw that broke the camel's back" situation? | 2015-12-11T17:13:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43796 |
| Thanks! | 2015-12-09T20:14:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/09/empathy-2/#comment-43779 |
| Yes - maybe not answer the question but at least trying to find a way forward in the darkness. | 2015-12-09T17:29:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/09/empathy-2/#comment-43775 |
| Me. too. This is hard to stomach all around. | 2015-12-09T17:28:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/07/as-words-fail/#comment-43774 |
| Thank you! Really great stuff! | 2015-12-09T17:28:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/09/empathy-2/#comment-43773 |
| As always, you add so much! Thank you, love the idea of an empathic civilization. I only hope we can get there. | 2015-12-09T17:28:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/09/empathy-2/#comment-43772 |
| Thank you. Forget what other people say - desperate times call for Yeats. | 2015-12-09T17:27:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/07/as-words-fail/#comment-43771 |
| I honestly don't know most of the time. | 2015-12-07T17:28:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/07/as-words-fail/#comment-43738 |
| Even what you propose is a pretty big stretch politically. I think we can get to the "regulate guns like cars" stage with all this, given a change in leadership, but even that will be like pulling teeth. And I really doubt it will do anything useful. | 2015-12-07T17:27:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/07/as-words-fail/#comment-43737 |
| Yes, if we can help Minneapolis get through this I really want us to. We are all in this together. It does seem that St Paul is at least better and maybe enough better that we have a lot to contribute as the solution. No matter what I want us to be a part of this conversation. If nothing else I think that our city is not as racially divided and certainly not as heated up over this. If that can help us all get through to a brighter place we will have contributed something important. |
2015-12-04T18:17:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43692 |
| This is GOLD Tamrahjo, thank you for it! The only reason I'm not responding right away is that you have given us ALL a lot to think about carefully. Really great stuff, thank you! |
2015-12-04T18:14:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43691 |
| I agree. Being white definitely helps our attitude so it's best to not be too cocky, but from what I can tell we have kind, conscientious people who do their jobs very well. Community policing is built into their jobs all around. I do think we should pay them more just because they deserve it, too. But I would like to hear from non-whites about our police just to be sure. |
2015-12-04T16:42:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43686 |
| Fair enough. It's only $45k nationally, which is to say about the average for all workers. Is $54k a lot? I ask for a tremendous amount from police so I would say it's not nearly enough. It really depends on what you expect them to do. There are pretty big education requirements - a tough 2 year degree is a minimum, 4 year if you want to get anywhere. I believe we have to insist on the very best and in order to attract them I think we have to pay a lot. I do think it has to be worth it. |
2015-12-04T16:33:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43684 |
| It is almost certainly worse in other places. What's going on here is closer to my mind and I can get an understanding of it. I want to stress that from what I know we don't have this problem in St Paul - at least not on this scale. What are we doing right? The police can learn from each other, I'm sure. I hope they're all talking. | 2015-12-04T16:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43683 |
| Thanks! | 2015-12-04T16:30:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43682 |
| Keep typing your thoughts as they come! We have to get through this somehow. I'm sure that more than a few of the over-worked cops have a view of their community as "the enemy" and dread going to work / going out on a call. How are they going to get over it? What does the system need to do to make this change happen? When we call for "justice" there's a focus on individual actions. I'm trying to expand the focus because the solution has to involve the whole system making a fundamental change. Not being in the field it seems nearly impossible to do but someone has to know how to do this. |
2015-12-04T16:30:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43681 |
| I would love to hear more! I avoided the term "community policing" because it seems to take on many different forms in different communities - as it should. And sadly it hasn't worked well in some places so the term has some negative connotation. It's the cooperation and empowerment that seems to make the difference. When you have a community in a place where North Minneapolis in particular and black people in Minneapolis more largely are right now it's going to be very hard to build the trust and really empower in a way that has to happen to make it work well. I can only imagine how this will go from here - IF the commitment comes through! |
2015-12-04T16:27:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43679 |
| Thanks! | 2015-12-04T16:24:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43678 |
| Thanks. I'm never sure what I have to add to this, but I'm very sure that we have to talk about this - white people especially. | 2015-12-04T16:24:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43677 |
| But I'm better at it. :-) |
2015-12-04T01:57:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/02/peoples-economics/#comment-43662 |
| MacBeth! :-) | 2015-12-02T21:35:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/02/peoples-economics/#comment-43645 |
| I am sad that you won't be there with us! I hope we have at least one accountant handy - everyone needs one. :-) | 2015-12-02T17:30:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/02/peoples-economics/#comment-43641 |
| Absolutely. My main question is what laws we have in place that we can't enforce due to stupid restrictions and what new laws do we need to make that as much a reality as possible? | 2015-12-02T17:30:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43640 |
| Thank you, but it is something I believe very sincerely. I was going to write this in a sarcastic way but I am starting to think that sarcasm is a cancer that will metastasize to consume us all. So I said it straight up. We come from violent stock and have no business complaining about other people's violence. | 2015-12-02T01:24:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43627 |
| The point is that they are trying - and it could have been a lot worse. We didn't have a repeat of 1929, so by that standard .... | 2015-12-02T00:58:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/02/peoples-economics/#comment-43625 |
| I can see that, but to say that Moslems are "violent" is still very hypocritical. | 2015-12-01T19:21:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43610 |
| A good addition - we have been at war nearly continuously since 2001. And we do kill a lot of people "by mistake" - with very little sorrow for that loss. | 2015-12-01T03:35:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43599 |
| Indeed, we do! | 2015-12-01T03:34:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43598 |
| It doesn't. The politics seems far less important to me than the constant need for people to use violence to get what they want. | 2015-12-01T03:34:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43597 |
| We are eating a smoked chicken - I like it! This is a world we made, by and large, it's true. We harvest what we plant. | 2015-12-01T03:33:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43596 |
| I tried to write it in a way that is hard to deny - as blankly as possible. But, alas, the denial at the core of European culture is critical - we are the great moral compass of the world, right? | 2015-12-01T03:32:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43595 |
| Yes - they are the scapegoat of the times. | 2015-12-01T03:32:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43594 |
| Thanks! | 2015-11-29T20:20:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43561 |
| Mine has problems with the Fs and F#s all the way up for some weird reason. They're all strung a bit differently! | 2015-11-29T20:19:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43560 |
| Oh, yeah. But let's not get her into pressed anchovies - they don't do well when pressed. They prefer a relaxed, creative environment. | 2015-11-28T22:25:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43543 |
| I need to do that, too. :-) My 1932 Kimball baby grand sounds great when it's in tune, but it's been a few years. | 2015-11-28T22:25:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43542 |
| A good plan! | 2015-11-27T20:41:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43528 |
| No, it is not! | 2015-11-27T20:37:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43526 |
| Pretty much, yes. |
2015-11-27T20:36:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43525 |
| Another vote for buy nothing day! It's a good idea all around. | 2015-11-27T20:36:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43524 |
| I hope not. I have faith in you! | 2015-11-27T20:36:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43523 |
| A good day to do just that! I will buy something, however - a tree from a small farm. | 2015-11-27T20:36:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43522 |
| That is what I am getting at. We have basic values and we have to stick with them. They are what made us great in the first place! | 2015-11-27T20:35:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43521 |
| Hope you had a wonderful, thankful day! | 2015-11-27T20:34:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43520 |
| Yes! | 2015-11-27T20:33:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43519 |
| I talked about some of this. Actually, what I said was, "We don't make stuff in this country anymore." | 2015-11-27T20:33:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43518 |
| Thanks! | 2015-11-27T20:32:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43517 |
| Amen to you, too, brother! | 2015-11-25T16:52:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43466 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-11-25T16:52:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43465 |
| Thank you - we do need to stand up to all forms of terror and not let it change us! | 2015-11-25T16:52:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43464 |
| Oh? Do tell. :-) | 2015-11-25T01:19:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/23/rising-again/#comment-43443 |
| I think that "$$$" is the universal language. | 2015-11-25T01:19:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/23/rising-again/#comment-43442 |
| I've been trying to make it better. The stupid finally got to me. :-) | 2015-11-23T16:11:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/20/all-politics-is-stupid/#comment-43404 |
| There are always opportunities somewhere! The difference is that the initiative has shifted to US investors and away from developing nation borrowers. But equity is much better than debt if you ask me, so if things move that direction it will be good for everyone. I'm still a bit worried about what happens if all the money out there comes home suddenly. |
2015-11-23T16:11:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/23/rising-again/#comment-43403 |
| I will continue to place my bet that their best days are behind them. :-) | 2015-11-23T01:51:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/23/rising-again/#comment-43386 |
| Mostly it is. Sometimes it's at least passable. :-) | 2015-11-20T17:03:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/20/all-politics-is-stupid/#comment-43338 |
| Another way to put it, from Pogo - "We have met the enemy and he is us." :-) | 2015-11-20T17:03:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/20/all-politics-is-stupid/#comment-43337 |
| When they're doing the work of terrorists, dividing the world into Islam and everyone else, all comparisons to horrible people seem rather fair to me. | 2015-11-20T17:01:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/20/all-politics-is-stupid/#comment-43336 |
| Nice guys. :-) | 2015-11-19T17:01:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43309 |
| Thanks. But I think the conclusion here is that things were more or less just truckin' along and no one is really paying attention - which seems to be true for nearly everything. | 2015-11-18T19:29:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43290 |
| No, not really. :-) (I assume you were being saarcastic) | 2015-11-18T19:29:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43289 |
| It certainly surprised me. They tried to hit everything they could, too. In other nations subsidies usually come from state-run companies. So it's a different setup all around. It's hard to compare generally. |
2015-11-18T16:42:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43284 |
| Targeted subsidies, such as home heating assistance that goes directly to the poor, is always going to be cheaper than a broad subsidy that lowers the price for everyone. Then again, a cash payment to the poor that allows them to make the choices they need (food, energy, etc) is the best for them and also probably cheaper in the long run. BUT - to help everyone some stability in critical markets like food and energy is probably more useful than actually lowering the price, IMHO. |
2015-11-18T16:41:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43283 |
| I have come to believe that a technology based solution in a competitive framework like this is the best go-to alternative before we start subsidizing things. Having said that, I know it's not always going to work. But we can imagine a checklist for governments facing problems that at least starts here. The X Prize is a great start. Their resources are limited but ... wow ... |
2015-11-18T16:39:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43282 |
| It's troubling. I understand why many nations subsidize energy - it's vital to modern life. But that makes the energy market stagnant and less efficient - and directly conflicts with the need for new sources! This is a classic problem for the left. Market forces are very, very powerful and there are good reasons to have a light hand whenever possible. But there are also good reasons to subsidize basic services. There is no "one answer" !! |
2015-11-18T16:37:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43281 |
| In other words, if your schtick is based on calling things like they are it's a Depression. :-) | 2015-11-17T15:15:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43248 |
| I'm actually OK with some level of "Black Friday". I know some families go out and shop together and if that's their thing then more power to 'em. I only want to see Thanksgiving, the one day, preserved. That is what is important to me. | 2015-11-16T18:52:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43231 |
| I think it is, too. | 2015-11-16T18:51:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43230 |
| What is a "Great Recession" if not a "Depression"? :-) | 2015-11-16T18:51:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43229 |
| We need Thanksgiving, I feel, as a nation. It's universal and non-sectarian but very centering. We should be thankful for what we have! | 2015-11-16T18:50:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43228 |
| It only makes sense when you think about $9 trillion in "carry trade", or US Dollars loaned out in the developing world, that has to come home once things start normalizing. The key is to follow the money and look for something to break - which it is (slowly) now. | 2015-11-13T17:21:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/13/not-so-fast/#comment-43196 |
| It's tanking quicker than I expected - much quicker than the stock market. We might breach 2.25% today or on Monday at this rate. But the call is for below 2.00% as the dust settles early in 2016. That will be good for everyone. | 2015-11-13T17:20:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/13/not-so-fast/#comment-43195 |
| I'm still bearish as all Hell on gold. Even if the US Dollar doesn't appreciate I see it going nowhere but down - a trajectory it recently picked up again after a brief spike up during the August - September market volatility. I see the price of gold as nothing more than an indicator of fear, and I see fear subsiding through the next several years. http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/ |
2015-11-13T01:23:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/13/not-so-fast/#comment-43165 |
| Well, then - hardly a "girl". :-) | 2015-11-12T18:29:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43154 |
| Who is Melissa Benoist and should I know her? :-) | 2015-11-12T14:40:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43149 |
| I have not found yet who they considered for the position. The Board of directors is here: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about/board-of-directors Note that only the "Class B" and "Class C" members were voting on the new President. They generally represent businesses in the area, but Hang does not. |
2015-11-11T20:52:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43137 |
| We don't know yet. My hunch is that he will, or at least be more eager than Kocherlakota. But Kashkari doesn't get to vote as a member of the FOMC until 2017 anyways. | 2015-11-11T20:50:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43136 |
| Thanks! | 2015-11-11T16:58:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/09/a-thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-43130 |
| I think so! He's kind of the anti-Kocherlakota in some ways. | 2015-11-11T16:57:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43129 |
| Is it that transparent? :-) Seriously, imagine what it was like waiting for news - the anticipation that turns into anxiety. It must have been nerve wracking! | 2015-11-11T16:57:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/09/a-thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-43128 |
| If they don't like it then they should try to not be so tasty ... | 2015-11-11T16:56:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/09/a-thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-43127 |
| There is a good, patriotic reason! | 2015-11-11T16:55:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/09/a-thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-43126 |
| Schroedinger's cat never escapes, too. :-) | 2015-11-06T21:56:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43073 |
| Thanks! | 2015-11-06T19:43:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43069 |
| Yes, very low. They don't normally regress to the mean all in one month like this - which is really what happened and nothing more. Stocks are down slightly but the 10yr is up to 2.32% already - a gain of 7 basis points in one day (0.07%). That's a big swing. If stocks tank, however, there will be downward pressure on that if investors turn to bonds - which I do not expect to happen today. Give it a week. |
2015-11-06T15:01:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43065 |
| This will be a critical week no matter what. I can't see that the jobs report will be bad no matter what given the ADP numbers. | 2015-11-06T03:30:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43051 |
| It's what I do. :-) | 2015-11-06T03:29:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43050 |
| That's the promise of the internet - leveling the playing field in terms of media access by companies large and small. But it still takes a major cultural / attitude shift to make it happen. As I always say, the economy is all about value and values - those really are the same word despite how we use them distinctly. | 2015-11-05T15:57:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43038 |
| Good point. The postwar world is starting to look so antique it's hard to make any sense of it. Welcome to the other side of the Managed Depression - a time when everything changes! :-) |
2015-11-04T19:46:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43015 |
| We have always been kidding ourselves, yes. But we're learning a little more with each blow-up in our understanding of the "facts" - if that helps at all. :-) | 2015-11-04T19:37:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43013 |
| No need to apologize - the implications of this peeling back of the veneer of understanding (and implied control) are vast. And indeed it's a very human thing, or at least a modern human thing, to delude ourselves into the belief that everything can be put into a permanent equilibrium and controlled forever. Consider the Black-Scholes-Merton equation that supposedly takes risk out of investing but still generates a decent net return. There is obviously something wrong in the whole approach, but it wasn't until the fall of Lehman that we understood it - risk wasn't dispatched, it was shared. Socialized, in fact, across the markets and ultimately by the taxpayers. It was all nonsense and should have been dispatched as so right away. But the beliefs that we have in place which presume that what we see today is true forever are indeed very human. Does the sun not come up every day? There ya go. :-) |
2015-11-04T19:36:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43012 |
| Resiliency is the key to me, which is why I've written about it (and around it) many times. I think that's the main reason that too much Financial Capacity (as per the last post) is a problem. We cannot commoditize everything and expect that the world will not become a much more harsh place. I really think it's that simple. The more we honor craftsmanship and decency the more we will have that in our lives - and better lives for everyone, everywhere. | 2015-11-04T19:32:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43011 |
| In terms of resources, there is a finite limit and I agree that wise people have known for a long time that it cannot continue. But in terms of arts or services or other products of the mind there are no limits. The more we are a "software" world the more growth can, in fact, continue. But even that argument is dashed against something very fundamental failing right now. It's chilling. One conclusion I hope people takeaway from this is that the maven who predict a wonderful software-based economy are also kidding themselves - unless we fix something much more fundamental, that is. Is it even fixable? |
2015-11-04T01:18:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-42994 |
| Pretty much, yes. | 2015-11-04T00:54:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-42991 |
| I think we do agree. The finance industry has too much power largely because it was granted to them. Perhaps the solution is simply better education all around, but I think there may be more. Regulations that encourage a more cozy, personal relationship between lender and borrower might well be in order - I am a big fan of credit unions generally, you know. For business I think Clinton has spoken out well on this but a lot more has to be fleshed out. More than anything I think a change in attitude is what we need and the education part probably has to lead, yes. |
2015-11-03T16:47:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42983 |
| It's more about the social implications of a world where everything is meaured in terms of its output on a monthly/quarterly basis. Why are companies measured entirely in the short term and often rewarded for desperately short-term thinking? That's the attitude we have. The idea is that the root of this thinking comes from the financial capacity. | 2015-11-02T14:29:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42951 |
| You simply have to tell us more! But I'm far from surprised. What "business managers" want to know is often far from reality. It's a serious problem because many companies build incentive systems for employees that ultimately really aren't helping a damned thing. | 2015-11-02T04:15:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42940 |
| That would be a good principle to start with, yes. :-) | 2015-11-02T04:07:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/30/tempus-fugit-2/#comment-42938 |
| It's really just a number. I think we could get used to it no matter what the number is. Supposedly our world is set for sunrise and sunset at 6 o'clock - but that changes an awful lot with the seasons anyway. | 2015-11-02T04:06:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/30/tempus-fugit-2/#comment-42937 |
| I think I just got all of them. :-) | 2015-11-02T04:05:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/30/tempus-fugit-2/#comment-42936 |
| I can always blame the British - especially the Royal Navy. :-) People do indeed already do this all the time. It's a feature of globalism. I'm simply calling for us to unite all of our thinking to make a truly global world part of our daily lives. | 2015-11-02T04:05:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/30/tempus-fugit-2/#comment-42935 |
| Maybe. All of the answers I have given may be correct, however. An excess of workers, the process of "evening out" the global economy into one thing, and the over-financialization of everything are in many ways the same problem. Everything in the old industrial economy has been "commoditized" - including workers. The solution is a more artisan economy based on adding real value and producing real goods. Within that, there is a lot of value in being local as well as room for a lot more workers - and little need for more credit or the services of an ever more "innovative" financial world. This may be the "one big thing" but I think it helps unite all the potential things that have gone wrong with brilliant illumination more than anything. Connections. Again, it's all about connections. :-) |
2015-11-02T04:02:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42934 |
| Precisely. As I hope you know, I am a big supporter of the Fed through this because I know that they have the best interests of working people in their hearts, minds, words, and action. However - there are clearly limits to what they can do and many of these became obvious. Here is something that is not entirely obvious - something rotten at the heart of our economic theories about credit and economic growth. The Fed's actions may have unintentionally done a lot more harm than we thought. |
2015-11-02T03:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42930 |
| Perhaps. But it is hard to start from scratch in so many ways, starting with ballot access. | 2015-10-29T13:57:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42833 |
| Both are popular. Free college is pretty well split, but favored slightly https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/08/20/three-fifths-want-debt-free-college/ and the minimum wage hike is generally favored http://www.raisetheminimumwage.com/pages/polling | 2015-10-28T23:07:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42826 |
| I will look, but I do not know about any polling data. That is very good question. A big part of leadership is moving any poll, of course. :-) | 2015-10-28T23:01:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42825 |
| Any attention at all is good. :-) | 2015-10-28T23:00:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42824 |
| The Supreme Court in Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission upheld the authority of an independent redistricting commission to act as the governing body in the case of redistricting. This means that independent commissions with ultimate authority can be created by the people of the state if they change the constitution, as they did in Arizona. It's a blow in favor of more fair districts but not a mandate by any means. | 2015-10-28T17:14:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42816 |
| Pretty much. But this means that the Free Market will sort it out, which is not necessarily a bad thing. But yes, there is no comprehensive solution introduced all at once that encompasses everything. | 2015-10-28T17:11:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42815 |
| My understanding is that the new cards have the new liability but the old cards have the old liability. That appears to put the onus on the merchant to get the new machines to process them properly, but some of the things I read suggested that this was not the case - a new card in an old machine does not change liability to the merchant. That doesn't make sense to me so I assume it is wrong. | 2015-10-28T17:10:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42814 |
| You may be right - the PIN is the European standard, we seemed to have gone our own way. I think some will have a PIN but the standard for the new liability is apparently signature - and I have no idea how it checks that the signatures match. This is more confusing than I thought. | 2015-10-28T17:04:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42813 |
| This is the first report I've seen on the system. Seriously. They are very rare here and I have yet to see anyone use a new card in a new machine. | 2015-10-26T02:44:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42739 |
| That is my read of it, yes. The new cards come with a promise of better security, and fulfillment of that falls partly on merchants. | 2015-10-26T02:39:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42737 |
| Pretty much, yes. | 2015-10-26T02:39:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/23/clinton-the-team/#comment-42736 |
| No one really knows what is going on anymore, that is clear to me. I intend to say that with a great deal of style. :-) Making arrangements with the viddy pros right now. :-) |
2015-10-26T02:39:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42735 |
| Here is where I'm at - let's get a really good plan together outside of the political system. Dodd-Frank was close, but it came from inside primarily. One we have a good plan in place we can push for it - and if it fails the problem will be in high relief. I do think that just saying "The system is broken" is not going to get us anywhere, nor is trying to fix it without a specific goal. People unite around causes and political reform is awfully abstract. Once the reason it's needed is clear it has a chance, IMHO. |
2015-10-26T02:38:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/21/the-glass-steagall-battle/#comment-42734 |
| The voters have been favoring that a lot over the last 50 years. There is a reason why. Can't say it's a good reason, however. :-) | 2015-10-26T02:35:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/23/clinton-the-team/#comment-42733 |
| Can you at least tell us who you are quoting, then? | 2015-10-23T04:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/23/clinton-the-team/#comment-42653 |
| I honestly don't know what you mean. | 2015-10-23T01:57:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/23/clinton-the-team/#comment-42650 |
| We're coming from two different places. I believe that good regulation allows everything that does not interfere with a defined public need, purpose, or property. If the public wants to have their services in one place they should be allowed to have that unless there is a good reason not to in this thinking. In other words, use a light hand unless there's a good reason not to. | 2015-10-21T16:19:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/21/the-glass-steagall-battle/#comment-42609 |
| This is where I start to lose people, partly because I really don't know. But I suspect that if the industry really believes there is an economy of scale in basic checking and savings services we need to start there. It may be a case of inappropriate regulation that increases overhead or something like that, but when you have something where there is a perceived economy of scale it's about overhead one way or the other. | 2015-10-21T16:18:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/21/the-glass-steagall-battle/#comment-42608 |
| Good point. I have all this stuff around here somewhere. :-) | 2015-10-20T19:13:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42590 |
| Some of this will be about economic perspectives - how to see the events of the last few years (decades?) differently. | 2015-10-20T19:12:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42589 |
| Thanks! I think if I do something a bit different it will work well. But I want to collapse the formality of the event at least at the end. | 2015-10-19T16:54:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42564 |
| Maybe we can do it on a weekend? It seems that there's always a lot going on then, which is what I was trying to avoid. | 2015-10-19T16:53:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42563 |
| Yes! :-) A strong economy is good for Democrats all around. It's one of the keys to the election, really. | 2015-10-16T17:41:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42507 |
| Right on! But to be fair consumer credit was really tightened in 2010 or so and hasn't loosened up much. That's probably for the best if it stays that way - but it has been hurting us. Again, this is all about transforming the economy into something new, something where we have the strong base to be able to handle globalism without it killing us. And that does mean more local sourcing. I have been thinking about this a lot but in all honesty the data showing what direction we're going just isn't there to give me anything conclusive. I'd love to find one or two things that we should keep an eye on but I just can't. It's all talk, all the way through as far as I can tell. Maybe we are moving the right direction but it's very hard to say. Overall, though, I totally agree with you. For example, Egypt imports 60% of its food. That means that when their currency fluctuates because of something stupid by banks the people starve. Their whole nation is unstable largely for this reason. I'm all for free global markets but not covering the basics at a local level is a recipe for disaster. The key to me is Resiliency or the ability to weather a likely storm. I use Egypt as an example because it's pretty extreme, IMHO, but we have similar issues with energy, relying way too heavily on imports and unsustainable sources. I favor renewables not because I love polar bears or anything - it's simply the right thing to do for the economy. |
2015-10-16T17:40:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42506 |
| It won't, so we all have to deal with it. :-) | 2015-10-16T16:56:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42502 |
| Allright then, here's something to think about at a time when the velocity or turnover of money is at an historic low: Let's say you mow your lawn. Great, you have a nice looking lawn. But why didn't you pay someone to do it? Then they would have money they could use to eat out and the cycle continues through the economy, providing work for everyone. Now, let's say that you are spending money on something with a lot lower labor component like a TV or something. But there is still someone with a job because of it, right? Why is it better for you to save that money rather than provide that worker with a job? And even if that job is far away aren't we all one big global economy at some point? |
2015-10-16T16:56:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42501 |
| I didn't mention it but it is often cited. In general I think the disposable income is up quite a lot year over year, which has to help. | 2015-10-16T16:32:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42497 |
| You know I'm with you on a personal level - we do have too much crap. But this really is a critical economic indicator and we can't just dump it overnight without a lot of pain. I have been wondering if people's habits are changing - buying less, buying more artisan works, etc. The reason we had several weak Christmases may have at least something to do with a gradual change away from a buying frenzy. But I have zero data on that despite looking every year. What I can say is that sales at big stores are lagging the overall growth. Meanwhile, let's all buy a really nice piece of art from some craftsman for the people we love and enjoy some time loafing by the fire. :-) |
2015-10-16T16:32:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42496 |
| We need to stop playing games, yes. | 2015-10-12T17:36:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42401 |
| Fair enough, but our interest is definitely in peace. Whether or not we have promoted it properly is another question and I'm willing to hear arguments. The problem I have is that players on both sides now have no interest in peace, which is troubling. As for the rebels having a chance, they were about to topple Assad, or so it seemed, two months ago. Their advances were impressive. That is why Russia got involved directly - something they have not done since Afghanistan in 1979. |
2015-10-12T17:36:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42400 |
| Hardly a smoking gun. Seriously, Assad started this with a brutal crackdown when starving kids put graffiti on a wall. In the early days of this conflict there was no sectarian element to it at all - so how can they say we "ignited" it? The Saudis, on the other hand, did turn it into a sectarian conflict. We at least looked the other way when they did and possibly aided them - though there is no evidence to support that. There is no evidence in this article that we "started" this war at all. Sorry, I don't buy that one bit. |
2015-10-12T03:03:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42385 |
| The West didn't create Assad, though. Are you also saying the US started this? | 2015-10-12T02:16:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42383 |
| I don't think we "started" this war, no, but we apparently looked the other way when the Saudis armed the rebels. I know that a lot of people think we are responsible for this but I don't see it that way. | 2015-10-12T01:58:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42381 |
| Good point, it isn't really that different. It just looks worse. | 2015-10-09T17:43:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/09/republican-chaos-democrats-in-charge/#comment-42328 |
| Not yet we don't. :-) Seriously, that is a good point. My only response is that it can't be worse. |
2015-10-09T17:43:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/09/republican-chaos-democrats-in-charge/#comment-42327 |
| It's all a horrible way to run anything. | 2015-10-08T17:57:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/07/runnin-on-empty/#comment-42295 |
| I was thinking about writing on that topic next, actually! | 2015-10-07T19:46:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/07/runnin-on-empty/#comment-42279 |
| I already have - there's a blank post up here somewhere. :-) | 2015-10-07T19:46:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/07/runnin-on-empty/#comment-42278 |
| Sure have. :-) | 2015-10-07T19:46:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/07/runnin-on-empty/#comment-42277 |
| Two things come to mind - the first is that our government needs to track proper "investment" debt much better with GAAP: http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/ And an older article on the payback on infrastructure: http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/ |
2015-10-06T03:39:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42218 |
| I think the 10% U6 unemployment tells that story - and it was as high as 17%. 1 in 10 people does not have enough work - that is a very serious crisis, and it's still about as high as it ever was before 2010. | 2015-10-05T19:46:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42210 |
| People allege this all the time, but there is no evidence to prove that. Because of the complex way it is calculated it is indeed a "black box" to most people, which fuels skepticism. But you cannot argue that those in charge have consistently gotten good employment numbers right before an election, for example. |
2015-10-05T18:53:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42208 |
| We have to look at the net accuracy. All unemployment rates (thank you for the plural!) are reported to the tenth of a percent, or part per thousand. Do we have that level of accuracy? It's hard to be sure, but we are at least close - it does go up and down 0.1% from one month to the next but that may be real. What I'm arguing here is that there is no way they have accuracy beyond that, however, which I think we can say for sure. |
2015-10-05T18:52:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42207 |
| The unemployment rate is NOT a lie, it is what it is. The "headline" unemployment rate, U3, only tells part of the story and no one in the profession believes it is the best measure. U6 is also reported at the same time and is publicly available, but largely ignored by the media. That stands at 10.0%. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm | 2015-10-05T18:46:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42204 |
| YES! That is the real problem. It's a lot like election polling - a difference inside the margin of error is not a difference. | 2015-10-05T15:47:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42200 |
| I think that's a little strong, but we don't know as much as we would like. My conclusion here is that we DO know we gained about 200k jobs in September no matter what the numbers say. | 2015-10-05T15:47:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42199 |
| We want to run our world with numbers because everything is supposed to be rational and in control. But there are limits to our ability to do that. Worse, the numbers are usually only fuel for our prejudices and need to fight about nearly everything. Can we really run an economy entirely with numbers? The short answer is no, because hope and fear play a big role in where things are going. People are not all that hopeful right now so they tend to be careful with purchases, keeping it cool. And there are definite limits to what we can measure in the first place. |
2015-10-05T15:46:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42198 |
| I would prefer if we didn't put that stuff into the tax code and instead had instant rebates handled separately. I know that sounds like a trivial difference, but I do think that a certain purity in the tax code is important. People need to feel that it really is fair and that there aren't breaks being given to people for bad reasons. The cleaner we can keep it the better the perception - and the harder it is to genuinely hide things that only benefit a few. | 2015-10-04T17:29:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42181 |
| Infrastructure is an investment, something I've written about long ago. There are great studies which show the net return from it, which is astonishing. As Anna said below calling investment debt "hedge" is somehow not satisfactory, but Minsky clearly takes a dim view of all debt. Calling it investment has judgment all over and separates "good" debt from "bad". I'm willing to make that judgment myself. We can judge the net effectiveness of investment, after all. | 2015-10-04T17:27:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42180 |
| Thanks. I guess I probably should talk about this more. The thing is that I've always wanted to separate debt into categories like this - and that data doesn't really exist from what I can tell. | 2015-10-04T17:25:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42179 |
| Minsky calls it a hedge, but it's investment. It's the "good debt". | 2015-10-04T17:24:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42178 |
| I wouldn't go that far, but it can become one. | 2015-10-04T17:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42177 |
| Ha! Good point. I guess that will take more rational voters if we really get the government we deserve. | 2015-10-01T18:43:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42130 |
| Good to have your perspective! Thanks! | 2015-10-01T16:26:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42127 |
| It does, but disclosure alone helps highlight just what the problem is. It appears that voters, on balance, actually get this pretty well. So let's give them the information needed to hone their objections and then we can take action. A functioning government? Only if people insist. :-) | 2015-09-30T17:28:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42107 |
| That is always best! | 2015-09-30T17:27:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42106 |
| Thanks! What I am proposing starts with the most basic kind of reform - disclosure. Right now, we have no idea what special tax breaks there are and how much it costs us. There simply isn't a table. Compiling one that shows all the breaks, including the relatively rarely used ones, will demonstrate the problem. I think from there it becomes easy to keep the tax code simpler. Right now, we really don't know all the details. |
2015-09-30T17:26:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42105 |
| Upon reflection, there is a gaping omission in this piece. It appears that conservative Republicans do not understand or do not care that they simply do not have the votes to get through absolutely anything that they want. They have no regard at all for the elaborate system which requires consensus that the Founding Fathers set up. They appear to believe that they should simply have their way no matter what. Given our system it's hard to imagine what Boehner or McConnell (the next on the list) were supposed to do to force their way. Set fire to the Reichstag? Yes, that's an inflammatory position but you ultimately have to question their commitment to this Democratic Republic and the principles upon which it was founded. They clearly believe that the ends justify the means, which is to say that they are the ones who follow the teachings of Saul Alinsky to the letter. Their tactics demonstrate this, too. But whereas Alinsky understood the system and was willing to work through it, empowering the powerless, this group starts from a position of power and greedily demands more. We have to start calling them for what they are - fundamentally un-American. It is time for everyone who cares about this nation to call out these power-hungry monsters for who they are and return to our basic principles as a people. We can get through these hard times and weather the winds of change. We've been through far worse. We got through the bad times in our history with the bedrock understanding at the core of our nation that there is strength in unity, and that unity is achieved through the process of building consensus. If they are unwilling to be a part of that unity then they must be cast aside. We have spent many years avoiding that decision largely because the vast majority of good people of this nation understand our principles, usually at their unspoken core. But perhaps it is time to simply say, "A house divided against itself cannot stand" one more time. Have we really arrived at that place? I hope not. But let's start by being clear - "Our Constitution works," in the words of another great Republican. It must be respected, and those who have not been granted full authority to do whatever they want by the citizens must learn to work within the system granted to us by great men long ago. Once we have called them out if they do not respond appropriately then they are, in fact, the enemies of our Democratic Republic. The conservative "Republicans" who insist on getting their way on every issue are fundamentally un-American. It is that simple. If they do not change their ways they must be cut away for the good of this great nation. |
2015-09-29T17:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/28/exit-boehner-enter/#comment-42083 |
| He was a moderate compared to the forces that are in the process of being unleashed. I think you'll see what I mean. The real crazies are about to take control of things and it's not going to be good. | 2015-09-28T19:49:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/28/exit-boehner-enter/#comment-42063 |
| Pretty much. | 2015-09-28T19:48:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/28/exit-boehner-enter/#comment-42062 |
| No, they really don't. To a person, it seems. I was on facebook earlier and a few Republican friends were telling how good this is for the party. | 2015-09-28T19:48:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/28/exit-boehner-enter/#comment-42061 |
| They should be. The 10yr is definitely hovering closer to 2% now. It was nearly 3% just a couple of years ago. | 2015-09-26T18:39:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/25/good-news-its-good-news/#comment-42001 |
| I agree, but we have a firm commitment now. | 2015-09-26T18:38:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/25/good-news-its-good-news/#comment-42000 |
| At the Fed, maybe. Everywhere else? I doubt it. :-) | 2015-09-26T18:38:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/25/good-news-its-good-news/#comment-41999 |
| It will be interesting! | 2015-09-23T22:29:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/23/pope-francis-teacher/#comment-41922 |
| That would be good, yes. :-) | 2015-09-23T17:14:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/23/pope-francis-teacher/#comment-41914 |
| Bless you! This is great to hear. We all need a charity that we volunteer at because there is work to be done - so much of it not able to pay. | 2015-09-23T16:07:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/23/pope-francis-teacher/#comment-41911 |
| It is amazing. Sometimes the system really does work. :-) | 2015-09-23T16:05:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-41910 |
| Give me a coupla hours, dude! | 2015-09-22T22:17:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/21/read-their-lips/#comment-41885 |
| Thank you very much! It is amazing how much campaigns on both sides focus on one group or another while not paying any attention to what they are doing to the opposite side. We live in a time when everything can be a firestorm so you pretty much have to presume everything you say and do will turn into one. But they rarely do. I don't. know. Glad to provide those links, BTW. :-) |
2015-09-22T15:19:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41876 |
| That is what I think will beat out the desire to hold the line on taxes. It's far too obvious that the exemptions for special interests are an albatross. It's really up to the Democrats to make them one, however. | 2015-09-21T19:18:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/21/read-their-lips/#comment-41853 |
| Then we shall see. :-) | 2015-09-21T19:17:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/21/read-their-lips/#comment-41852 |
| I agree that the more regressive taxes (sales, consumption) are always the first to be suggested for raising by the Republicans. That is what mostly happened in Kansas. But they have gone a bit beyond that recently and are indeed starting to stand for a general tax rise. I really hate Trump, but he brought up the subject and now we are all talking about it - and the sky is not falling. | 2015-09-21T19:17:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/21/read-their-lips/#comment-41851 |
| I have no idea where we get them from. It is frightening all around. I keep thinking we need another FDR, but another Truman would be good, too. He had a firm grasp on reality and wasn't afraid to fight for it. | 2015-09-18T15:30:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41754 |
| The lack of a reality based politics is a serious problem all around, yes. Interesting take on Lakoff. I have been looking at his stuff more and more because I do agree that a consistent progressive philosophy has to be developed if we are going to make real progress. But I don't see the essentials coming from him - again, we all seem to whine a lot without actually doing anything (me included). |
2015-09-18T15:29:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41753 |
| So ... what are we gonna do about it? That's my problem lately. I hate whining about something and not doing anything about it. That does seem to be about all I do, too. | 2015-09-18T01:26:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41745 |
| True leadership has room for personal perspective, belief, and faith. We have a tremendous leadership crisis throughout the developed world. | 2015-09-18T01:01:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41743 |
| Absolutely. They have simply burned out at this point. The real question is what kind of Democrats will take their place - the Not Republicans, the Progressives, or something else? Right now the Progressives are the only ones with a real agenda, but I expect that to change. | 2015-09-18T00:59:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41742 |
| I do agree. Control over women is control of the next generation in many respects, and that is the greatest desire of all despots. | 2015-09-18T00:58:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41741 |
| While I do not like Trump at all, I would take his money happily. | 2015-09-18T00:57:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/16/6962/#comment-41740 |
| I believe this is correct as well. I don't see the need for more of it in the future, and if anything less. We are seeing the Class B and C stuff in downtown converted to apartments. | 2015-09-18T00:57:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/16/6962/#comment-41739 |
| It is better all the time - go visit! There's still a "dead zone" from Wabasha to about Robert, but in Lowertown and Rice Park there is a lot. The Pedro Park area is also coming around! | 2015-09-18T00:56:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/16/6962/#comment-41738 |
| While we're getting Sanders and Corbyn, what voters really want is Nicola Sturgeon (SNP). But older, established leaders that "get it" will do in a pinch. There is a generation gap in voting patterns, for sure. |
2015-09-16T00:32:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41695 |
| We will simply have to see. Britain rejected a mush middle in favor of a more resolute middle. Does that mean they are really hungry for a new direction? We will probably begin to see very shortly. | 2015-09-14T22:59:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41677 |
| I agree. For me, Clinton clearly has the leadership skills which make it easy for me to imagine her as President with a diverse, sometimes argumentative circle of advisors who are capable of making some solid progress. But the lack of a solid agenda that demonstrates what she stands for and what this potentially awesome power might be directed towards prevents me from supporting her now. |
2015-09-14T22:57:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41676 |
| A good point - we have to make sure we win first of all. Think of how old the Supreme Court is, for one! | 2015-09-14T15:12:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41669 |
| The next six months will tell us a lot about where things are going. The Republican race will probably settle down a lot, too. | 2015-09-14T15:11:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41668 |
| I think there is reason to take heart from it, but the situation is different enough here that it's easy to make way too much of it. And you are right about Clinton and her team. The point is that there is indeed a global movement and they can capitalize off of each others' successes. That helps a lot in terms of positive news but does it do anything more? | 2015-09-14T15:11:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41667 |
| Thank you! I think there is a lot to learn from the UK, as we often do - and they learn from us. It's an interesting arrangement given our different systems. | 2015-09-14T00:39:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41654 |
| The macro makes more sense to me, yes, the old fashioned Keynesian creating work and priming the pump stuff. But part of me believes there is no actual "macro", which is to say I'm starting to really by the whole "Behavioral Economics" way of thinking. But on the whole, the idea that we can increase the money supply as a way out of this seems ludicrous. Call me an old fashioned demand sider - at least for now. |
2015-09-10T23:09:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41588 |
| Several problems with this. One is household deleveraging, which has stopped - in fact, consumer credit is expanding right now. The other is that I'm not so sure the USD will appreciate, assuming the carry trade is killed off - demand for US Dollars may go down very low, especially with commodities cheap, and drive the value of it down. Lastly, there are signs that GDP growth is accelerating and there is upward pressure on wages. The key to it all is that stupid carry trade, IMHO. If trillions of US dollars are repatriated we will see interest rates have a net fall - or at least stay stable as the Fed Funds Rate goes up. It's totally counter-intuitive, but reasonable. The spread between the 10yr and the FFR is at the top end of its range at 2.2% right now - if that falls back to the average 1% and the FFR is at 0.75%, we have a 10yr at only 1.75% - quite a bit lower than today. There is room for that to happen if USD is repatriated like I think it will be. |
2015-09-10T16:40:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41582 |
| The Fed deserves criticism for their regulatory functions, which I think everyone agrees are done in a very lax and chummy environment. I think they should be stripped of them and left to concentrate on being the central bank. So I consider that criticism more than valid. But to go after them for how they set rates, especially now that they are far more open than in the past, seems really unfair to me. |
2015-09-09T19:28:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41562 |
| Excellent analogy! Unless you want to wait for it to just fall off on its own. :-) | 2015-09-09T18:24:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41559 |
| I don't know that she is being treated that differently, but it does seem that there is a loss of respect for the Fed as an institution. Given their unusually dovish position that seems reasonable to me, which is to say I'm not sure we can blame it on her gender. But this is an excellent question. I will look through the more disparaging articles and see if I can sense any sexism. | 2015-09-09T18:24:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41558 |
| I am sure you are right. But I would like my friends on the left to really see that chart of interest rates and really listen to Yellen, Kocherlakota, Bullard, and some of the others there and understand how much they deeply care about working people and how they have really stuck their necks out to keep the stimulus as hot as they can for a long time in order to create jobs. Yes, the whole system has serious problems. But there are good people in high places within it all the same. We must recognize them if we're ever going to get anywhere. |
2015-09-09T18:22:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41557 |
| Good way to look at it. Watching the stock market will drive anyone nuts, even the Fed. Just do it! | 2015-09-09T15:46:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41550 |
| Yes. We can't have that attitude and be prosperous. | 2015-09-09T15:46:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41549 |
| I am still optimistic in the long run, but we still eat in the short run. We got this far from 2010, but we're more than halfway through it from what I can tell. | 2015-09-07T16:02:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41444 |
| This summarizes where we are pretty well, IMHO http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/09/04/the-august-jobs-report-in-nine-charts/ | 2015-09-07T16:01:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41443 |
| It really is a matter of labor being put at a disadvantage. I see that changing in the near future and that will be a good thing. But yes, we need government support to make that happen. Closing off borders to goods is one way to do that, but there are others. Consciously recognizing what it takes to make a flexible workforce - which is to say free education and good unemployment benefits while in school for a new trade - would be essentially the same thing. |
2015-09-07T16:01:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41441 |
| That is the problem today - money is far more mobile than people. And that will be the case from here out no matter what because even when you choose to be a migrant the connections needed to get a good job and the cost of moving around are still out of reach for most people. | 2015-09-07T15:16:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41437 |
| I think they will not raise the Fed Funds Rate in September, but remind everyone that December is a go. But there is still a slim chance that they will do what they should and raise it. |
2015-09-04T22:17:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/04/a-critical-weekend/#comment-41344 |
| I still think that as we get into a period where there is upward pressure on wages a lot of problems will solve themselves. There will be a net demand for immigrant talent and the trillion dollar per year gap will close. So if we just relax and do what we can to create an economy that works we'll be fine. So there. :-) | 2015-09-04T19:38:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/04/a-critical-weekend/#comment-41334 |
| That is basically what is happening. We now have an excuse and can sit around fretting about others while we do nothing. | 2015-09-04T19:36:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/04/a-critical-weekend/#comment-41333 |
| Fair enough - we shouldn't subsidize it like we do. But it does help civic unity and promote general well being. Sports are worth something, IMHO. | 2015-09-02T22:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41212 |
| I completely agree. You might as well enjoy it regardless. Packers fans may be the best in the league, but Steelers fans are also just great fun! | 2015-09-02T22:02:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41211 |
| The Vikings are not going to have a good year, I am sure of that. Sorry. | 2015-09-02T22:01:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41210 |
| Thanks! | 2015-09-02T15:21:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41184 |
| Every season we all get sucked in. But hey, it's a lot of fun. BTW, I used to really hate the Jets, but now I only really hate the Patriots. :-) Do we have that in common? For some reason, I never could hate the Bills, though. It's like they deserve something up there ... | 2015-09-02T15:21:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41183 |
| And don't annoy the staff if you really worry about it. :-) | 2015-08-31T20:33:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/31/the-idiot-diet/#comment-41109 |
| Some products are more gross than others. :-) | 2015-08-31T20:33:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/31/the-idiot-diet/#comment-41108 |
| That can be a problem for us all! | 2015-08-31T14:11:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/31/the-idiot-diet/#comment-41087 |
| Over the last 14 years we have averaged 4%. Adjusted for inflation it's nearly zero, however. A shorter time frame from say 2009 looks much better, like a 17% return. http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm Yes, it's best to just forget the day to day fluctuations. |
2015-08-28T14:48:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40984 |
| A very good point. I think there is a lot of good news, but it all seems to dissolve into worry and panic. What will it take to reverse that? Dunno. But bears do seem to rule the financial media right now. | 2015-08-28T14:46:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40983 |
| I love Fleck! He's kind of a perma-bear, always finding a reason for a crash, but as a short that's his biz. I saw some stuff maligning shorts again, as happens in every crash, but who else will keep the market honest? I know, no one can. But hey. I don't see a crash from them, but I do see a major war between the programmed traders. They can be manipulated, too. |
2015-08-28T14:32:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40979 |
| YES! I have never been one to fear China too much for exactly this reason. This will end in a similar way, too, when Chinese money comes to the US in search of a safe haven. Remember when Japan was buying real estate here, including Rockefeller Plaza? Caused quite a stir. The truth is probably not entirely sinister, I believe. Things are just evening out around the world and the process is messy. China has a rightful place in world leadership and assuming that is going to take a lot of ups and downs. We're about to see the limits of their centrally planned economy, IMHO. |
2015-08-28T14:05:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40977 |
| At least part of it is. As long as they have the dough to cram into it, they won't let it fall too much. In 2008 they ran out of options to be able to rig it. | 2015-08-28T14:03:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40976 |
| Does a 3.7% jump in 2Q15 GDP say anything good? | 2015-08-27T19:43:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40939 |
| I have never said anything bad about Malaysia! I like that place. Needs a lot more democracy and openness, but they're going pretty far pretty fast. | 2015-08-27T19:42:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40938 |
| There's a lot here ... Should the Fed be more open or speak with one voice? I think we can say that this is a time of crisis, or at least one damned crisis after another, so there is a lot of value in one voice. But I still prefer this openness. The market as a thing is too monolithic, IMHO, and it should be more open in general - like a noisy, thick open air market. It used to be that way. Let the Fed reflect that, I say. As for Hillary faltering, well, a lot of them are faltering. The process has a lot of time to play out. China? I'm convinced that most of that nation is a big pile of ... mess. Their currency was never undervalued and you know that at the first chance all the billionaires over there will get as much the Hell out of there as fast as they can. The value of RMB should be roughly a measure of confidence in China, and I can't see any reason to be confident in that place. RMB? Feh. As for being ready for prime-time, I get the feeling that no one is. The world is run by a lot of amateurs these days. Merkel gets her way largely because she is the only competent person in all of freakin' Europe. Might as well let her run things - except for that weird love of austerity and deflation. If only the left would get its act together and at least have a good debate about where they need to go. Besides, what the Hell is this "Europe" as a thing anyways? They have serious existential problems that underly how they lope from one crisis to the next, from one dreary day of austerity to the next. |
2015-08-26T21:33:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40891 |
| Just about, yes. | 2015-08-26T16:31:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40883 |
| Yes, don't worry about it. We need to achieve some kind of equilibrium around the world before anything is stable, and we're not even close to that yet. | 2015-08-26T16:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40882 |
| Done more than the rest of the Gummint. | 2015-08-26T04:53:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40854 |
| That, too. | 2015-08-26T01:59:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40852 |
| But I'm convinced the USD will actually fall if there's a rate increase because it will kill the carry trade. That will bring money home. The logic is strange but we live in strange times. | 2015-08-26T00:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40847 |
| You have every right to never forgive him for that as far as I'm concerned. That's just far beyond the pale. | 2015-08-25T16:30:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40817 |
| I'm not really impressed by Biden, either. Clinton's "sellout" doesn't bother me as much because she is a proven leader with real skills. Biden doesn't impress me as much. | 2015-08-25T03:03:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40772 |
| I think that Clinton can look like the centrist leader we need, but it's largely up to her. The propaganda against her is stunning, but I think she can do it. | 2015-08-25T03:02:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40771 |
| Thanks. We'll see how far the stock market goes down - and how Democrats can get their act together. | 2015-08-24T21:38:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40755 |
| To everything there is a season ... ours may indeed be coming. | 2015-08-24T14:53:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40743 |
| Sure, have a laugh at my expense. A year from now let's see who is laughing! :-) | 2015-08-24T03:12:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40725 |
| I let my bias show here, again, but in the past I've expressed my admiration for Sanders' fans. He is an experienced politician and he is a good guy, no doubt. We have good leaders and we need to let this play out, IMHO. | 2015-08-24T00:56:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40720 |
| Yes, it is. :-) | 2015-08-23T23:15:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40707 |
| Shop now instead! | 2015-08-23T15:24:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40691 |
| It's always best to not revel in the pain of others. Unless you're short, in which case you cackle quietly to yourself. | 2015-08-22T06:19:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40628 |
| The Dow causes nothing. Being and unbeing do not define markets. | 2015-08-22T06:19:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40627 |
| It will take more than two days to be sure, but this is getting brutal. | 2015-08-21T18:29:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40592 |
| No, I would never do that! :-) | 2015-08-21T17:49:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40590 |
| I would say that it's likely. I put it at 75% that a 10% correction is coming (counting the 2% we already had) and 50% that it's more like 20%. | 2015-08-21T16:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40584 |
| Yes, indeed. I think we can say for sure that more volatility is in the works. | 2015-08-21T16:02:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40583 |
| If you're Catholic, every day is a holiday. :-) | 2015-08-19T22:06:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/19/womens-equality-day-2/#comment-40496 |
| Like a personal anniversary? :-) | 2015-08-19T22:05:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/19/womens-equality-day-2/#comment-40495 |
| Always the case, with just about everything. | 2015-08-19T22:05:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/19/womens-equality-day-2/#comment-40494 |
| You're still a majority of voters in nearly every election! | 2015-08-19T22:05:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/19/womens-equality-day-2/#comment-40493 |
| Thanks! And yes, if you apply this perspective the proper role for LRT becomes rather obvious. It supports high density within about 1/4 mile of where it is built, so you can go ahead and do that. I have an editorial coming out in the Community Reporter on this, but if for example we have LRT on railroad tracks and we can redevelop the ADM/Omaha site that would be a good place for a station and some higher density. It could play off the Brewery and gradually taper back a bit, just a bit, to Randolph. It would all make sense there. That is one way of thinking about all of this stuff and how to encourage a city that makes sense. I use the phrase "economically and aesthetically sustainable" for a good reason - I think they are the same thing. |
2015-08-17T21:20:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40401 |
| I do not rely on Ayn Rand for guidance in politics OR architecture. Or anything, really. :-) | 2015-08-17T20:48:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40394 |
| I should have put up a warning label: Crackpot Personal Theory Ahead! :-) Seriously, I know Opus among other developers thinks about this, but it has never been written down the way I did it. A city has to make sense in order to be stable, and density gradient is one way of thinking of that. Large projects in the middle of neighborhoods always fail eventually - and there's a good reason. They just don't belong. LRT can divide, yes, when it's done badly. There was no excuse for what happened on University. Even if you insist on LRT on that street it could have been done better. Mind you, if it was run down the middle of I-94 we could have constructed stations on the bridges at Snelling, Dale, Lexington, etc that bridged the "dead zone". They could have included some retail space like coffee huts. By doing so we could have erased the major gaps that separate St Paul along the freeway. I am saying that such a plan would have been good urban planning vs what was done by definition. Re-weaving the urban fabric and restoring an appropriate density gradient has to be a priority for all planning, IMHO. |
2015-08-17T20:48:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40393 |
| We can't remove freeways, but we can cover them. What I am saying here points to what should cover freeways, too - not open space, but development. Yes, the most prime land for development may be between the Capitol and Downtown! Strategic thinking has never ruled urban planning, despite many attempts by good people. But we do know a lot about what works and we are making progress. I do believe that a fairly light hand in planning is a good thing. It's a matter of creating the appropriate urban infrastructure - which naturally includes transit. Developers really don't try to do stupid things that often, at least not without massive subsidy. Without TIF, for example, Downtown St Paul would be a lot smaller and funkier. It's worth remembering. |
2015-08-17T20:44:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40391 |
| We need to re-weave the fabric left torn by the freeway construction. There is nothing more important for the city, IMHO. |
2015-08-17T16:35:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40382 |
| I think there is very much an upper bound, although some people do like living in high density towers. It's a matter of how much of that stuff there is from what I can see. A city should have a wide range of housing options and a lot of greenspace. It has to run from a lower density to a higher one, and what those two terms mean will vary from one city to the next. But a balance is always going to be important and that has to be respected if its going to remain stable. |
2015-08-17T15:12:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40379 |
| I think that's a bit harsh. What we see, IMHO, are a lot of project being done by people who are applying an ideology rather than responding to their environment. I'm calling for a better and wider feel for the city before asserting a development. | 2015-08-17T15:10:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40378 |
| It did go forward, yes. I was wrong about that. But it is not producing the wave of development it was supposed to, even with additional subsidies from TIF and from foundations. Only a few projects are moving forward. Ridership is decent and people are starting to rely on it, so that's good for the line. It appears to be successful. I still say it could have been a lot more, however. |
2015-08-17T14:59:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2008/01/30/crazy-train/#comment-40376 |
| So far, we don't seem to have a system that is capable of doing that. I don't know what that would look like, honestly. | 2015-08-15T14:46:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40272 |
| A good comparison! | 2015-08-15T14:45:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40271 |
| Hold on, now - there's a "process" for that. :-) | 2015-08-14T19:14:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40230 |
| I don't think I am, either. But it's very, very early. | 2015-08-14T17:26:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40225 |
| That does seem to be true so far. He will need a lot more traction to get it and his team seems to be full of tired old retreads. | 2015-08-14T17:26:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40224 |
| Excellent. But I also want to know what's in it for him. Does he really think he can win? He may, given his personality, but I can't help but think that this isn't another promotional thing like a reality show. | 2015-08-14T17:25:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40222 |
| Fair enough all around. :-) Thanks for commenting, I think you have something here. | 2015-08-14T01:25:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40183 |
| I will admit my bias - I think Trump is a complete clown and the only redeeming feature about him is that he is completely unelectable. Having said that, I am sure that people supporting him want someone, somewhere to "tell it like it is" and not couch their language. I understand that. We've been in a Depression for 15 years and no one in power has yet to say the "D" word. That's ridiculous. The Iraq War was a farce. We've allowed spying on innocent citizens. Yes, there are reasons to want someone to speak up. But Trump just isn't that person. If someone better came along, someone not drunk on narcissism, that would be interesting. But I do understand why some percentage of the voters are so hungry for candor that they don't really care. That is the real tragedy here, IMHO. |
2015-08-14T01:13:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40181 |
| Fair enough. I also am very sure that Trump is capped at around 25% of the Republican vote no matter what, where Sanders could win the Democratic nod. | 2015-08-14T00:42:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40179 |
| Most things that a brilliant are a huge "duh!". :-) You are exactly right - cultivating a steady income stream is far more important than maximizing profit for any small business, and that's far from the only place where traditional economics tends to fail. They can say that this maximizes profit over the long haul, but I doubt it. And yes, it's entirely by feel because most small businesses are in a "people" biz! |
2015-08-13T15:55:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/12/people-not-a-machine/#comment-40155 |
| Thanks! | 2015-08-13T15:54:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/12/people-not-a-machine/#comment-40154 |
| It is, really, sociology. But very applied and directed. It makes a lot of sense - study what you are interested in and understand it before you decide what it is about or what it does! | 2015-08-13T15:52:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/12/people-not-a-machine/#comment-40153 |
| I read your comment and accidentally responded to it above! I tend to read all the comments before I respond to see where the discussion is going. This is a serious problem with this line of thinking, yes. We don't have a way of organizing the world to produce basic things that we need to survive. That is the flaw here. |
2015-08-11T15:20:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40043 |
| There will always be that basic economy. The idea that people will stop working for money, which BTW is inherent in Star Trek among other Sci-Fi works, has a real flaw in it that way. But beyond the basic economy, what is there? I don't know, honestly. Why would people work if not for money? |
2015-08-11T15:18:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40042 |
| As we define it, humans are not capital per se. We have a relationship between capital, labor, land, and thought to add the latter driver of technology to the Marxist way of looking at things. And yes, that part is more and more valuable all the time. Capital money is cheaper, land is being used more wisely, and labor is being done by machines. It's the mind that is the only scarce resource. I'll think that line of reasoning through some more. A very excellent point! One thing to add - you guys challenge me so wonderfully! This blog would be nothing without you! |
2015-08-11T15:17:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40040 |
| First point - excellent! What really is this thing called "capitalism"? Is it a system of exploitation or a natural way to maintain property and encourage work? I think it's just a a way of keeping track of resources, which is a neutral view overall. On the last point with Reich - this is so excellent I have to think about it some. You are right that there are some things in his agenda that are a bit dated feeling if you think about it from this perspective, but why? What is the alternative? Would action today in some form inhibit the changes we want to occur? I'll consider that, thank you! |
2015-08-11T15:14:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40039 |
| Thanks! | 2015-08-11T15:11:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40038 |
| Reasonable. Well, maybe not in the case of Sen Cruz .... :-) | 2015-08-07T22:19:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/07/shows-over/#comment-39843 |
| A personal attack is a sure sign I hit a nerve, so thanks for the acknowledgement! | 2015-08-07T22:19:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/07/shows-over/#comment-39842 |
| Apparently, it does. I still think it's silly, though. :-) | 2015-08-07T22:19:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/07/shows-over/#comment-39841 |
| It's early - one or more of them will look Presidential at some point. | 2015-08-07T22:18:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/07/shows-over/#comment-39840 |
| Always listen to the kids! :-) Thanks for reading. :-) |
2015-08-07T00:11:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39787 |
| It will. | 2015-08-05T19:01:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39713 |
| That is low, but we are still way ahead of population growth. Yes, the population growth will go negative for the chart above by 2018. As it is, job growth is already ahead of the growth in the working age population. |
2015-08-05T14:35:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39703 |
| There will be more work when the money we have out there right now turns over a lot more often. The lack of money among the lowest wage earners has ruined the middle class prosperity of the golden age. | 2015-08-05T14:34:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39702 |
| I just went back to 1960 using the BLS data, which is close enough. The "hole", as you call it, from 2000 on, got as big as 4.5% of the population from that official recession and never got smaller than 3.23% in 2006. It opened up to 10.75% in 2010 (!!) and is now at 6.12% taking into account all the job loss since 2000. So if we assume 2000 is nirvana we can say that there is still a net deficit of 6%, which we're closing At this rate, we should have full employment by about 2018, so we're still on the mark for that - unless workers re-enter the workforce and the employment population ratio goes back up. But it shouldn't with the retirement wave coming. See this chart: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=249132&category_id= |
2015-08-05T02:49:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39680 |
| A lot has to fall in place, yes. But the pressure will be in the right direction. One thing I am leaving out - more Americans on Social Security. That will be the difference between this trip back to 60% of the population working and the last time. Taxes will have to cover that, but ... if wages are higher, it'll work out. That's what I'm calling. | 2015-08-05T02:46:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39679 |
| That does seem to be true. We will see in a few years. | 2015-08-03T16:47:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/#comment-39597 |
| Yes, it does seem to be counter-productive all around. | 2015-08-03T16:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/#comment-39596 |
| I agree that a lot has to be thought through. The economic success of the 1950s was based on a family unit with one wage earner, meaning that many people relied on one income. That is still the case, but "family" units are often smaller now - one wage earner per family means we need a lot more jobs. And there is more than one wage earner in most families anyway. The downward pressure on wages has killed us, IMHO. I think that shows in the numbers. | 2015-08-03T16:46:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39595 |
| I am not sure about the progress indicator myself, so I'm not ready to endorse any new measurements yet. But yes, growth of the kind we measure is not likely to be here anyway and it probably doesn't need to be. If the 1% gets it all, what does it mean? My contention is that unless we have a real drive to better equity there will indeed be no growth, so it doesn't really matter. I am quite sure of this. Inequality is holding us back. |
2015-08-03T16:44:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/#comment-39594 |
| :-) I'm not sure we are consigned to a permanent sub-3.2% growth, but it is a possibility we should be prepared for. |
2015-08-03T16:42:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/#comment-39593 |
| I won't argue with you here. If we all take a long deep breath and start doing what makes us happy and healthy we'll have a new and better economy shortly, because an economy is nothing more than a collection of people's real values. | 2015-08-02T20:18:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39538 |
| You are talking about a New Deal, and I've been in favor of this for about 8 years now! So, yes, let's give people a job rather than an unemployment check. As for the 70s, it does seem to be when the erosion started - and has continued to this day. That's also when a much higher percentage of adults started working, up from 58% 1947-1968 and climbing up to 68% by 2000. It's down to 63% now. I'm convinced there is only so much paid work to do in a developed economy, so more workers only suppresses wages at some point. That's what I think happened. And I have faith in the future because as Baby Boomers retire we'll go back to that 58% again shortly. |
2015-08-02T20:17:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39537 |
| You're no fun. | 2015-07-31T18:59:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39449 |
| ABSOLUTELY! There is no reason for employers to get stuck with that tab. I made a proposal for weaning us off this system in the post. I think it would make a higher minimum wage much more affordable and cause fewer side effects as a result. | 2015-07-31T04:11:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39409 |
| SSDI is another thing altogether, and it's just ridiculous how that has been allowed to be so mishandled. But thanks - I've been thinking about this for a while now and I feel like I finally have a handle on it. |
2015-07-31T01:54:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39401 |
| Yes, I honestly don't know what to make of that story. Yeesh. There are a LOT of details, like the ones you named, which we really need to think about. The ag exemption dates back to 1938, but is the reasoning still valid? I doubt it. I do believe that a lot of the low wage earners are indeed in service work, given how factory jobs still pay pretty well overall. This is one truly progressive movement I can sink my teeth into, yes. But I also want to say that I do think a compromise to lower the overhead per worker, making this much more affordable for businesses, is still a good idea. We don't want to distort the market towards automation and we also really want to get this passed. |
2015-07-31T01:53:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39400 |
| Thanks! | 2015-07-31T01:50:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39399 |
| The Otto Cycle piston engine 1880s technology that, despite updates, may be gasping its last soon. | 2015-07-29T22:04:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/29/end-quarterly-capitalism/#comment-39326 |
| Excellent point. But you agree with the principle - using what policy we have to focus on the longer term? | 2015-07-29T16:21:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/29/end-quarterly-capitalism/#comment-39296 |
| There is a lot of time left. Let's see where this goes ... | 2015-07-29T16:20:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/29/end-quarterly-capitalism/#comment-39295 |
| I think she is the real deal, but she really has to step up and provide the leadership we need, IMHO. | 2015-07-29T16:20:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/29/end-quarterly-capitalism/#comment-39294 |
| It certainly is! Very fascinating. Big cities with very distinct character, small towns, farmland - it's really got it all! Voting patterns are also all over the place, which makes it very important. Along with Ohio it pretty much decides the Presidential race. |
2015-07-27T16:06:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39188 |
| As I've written recently, I grew up in the South - or some weird parody of it. But my heritage is Pennsylvanian - far more than it is German or Irish or Scottish or any of the other places "my people" came from. In fact, as far as I can tell, "my people" come from good ol' Pennsy! | 2015-07-27T16:04:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39187 |
| Yes to all of that on PA. The Quakers were also very suspect because they were not supporters of the Revolution, meaning that they were perceived as Loyalists after the war. The Scotch Irish and Germans (my people!) took over the state then. Delaware - wow. Your piece reveals a lot of love to my eyes because you found someone else who cared about doing the right thing all the time. It's a great piece. I didn't know any of this! And yes, Peterson was a Republican. I miss people like that, I really do. And I want to learn a lot more about the Coastal Zone and how it was managed. And I also agree on what you call "bomb trains" - what a nightmare! |
2015-07-27T13:48:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39178 |
| Aren't we all? And what if it turned out that they were the peaceful, decent ones on the scene, eh? | 2015-07-27T13:41:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39176 |
| No, Delaware is a terrible place. Sorry, as a Pennsylvanian I'm compelled to raz ya. :-) You may find that you are responding to the inequities that you grew up with as much as anything. For example, Perdue still seems to run the state as a kind of "plantation" at times, and there is the whole duPont pandering to corporations history of the state. So it might actually define you, at least in how you respond to things. Then again, you do seem rather Pennsylvanian to me - you speak your mind and let the chips fall where they may. :-) |
2015-07-27T01:45:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39157 |
| That's the spirit! | 2015-07-27T01:43:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39156 |
| The chart doesn't lie! :-) | 2015-07-27T01:43:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/#comment-39155 |
| Which happens to a lot of 'em ... hey, gotta know the stuff. | 2015-07-24T22:10:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/#comment-39065 |
| It doesn't seem to track anything rational ... | 2015-07-24T22:10:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/#comment-39064 |
| Very much so. It's underlying value seems to be around $350 an ounce - everything above that is either fear or the "greater fool" concept at work. | 2015-07-24T15:35:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/#comment-39046 |
| Sounds reasonable, yes! | 2015-07-23T00:56:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38991 |
| It is the only thing we can do when things get too emotional. It also stops all public debate, which is kind of bad, but even that is better than highly hateful/frightened responses. | 2015-07-23T00:55:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38990 |
| Yes, that's the real problem, IMHO. | 2015-07-23T00:55:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38989 |
| It did deflate the situation very quickly, didn't it? They only have power when they can make people afraid or nervous. Wasn't the case with the accompaniment. | 2015-07-23T00:54:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38988 |
| Sounds like an excellent approach! | 2015-07-23T00:53:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38987 |
| Yeah, well ... | 2015-07-21T20:31:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38940 |
| A good point! If capital requirements are $20k for $120k in output that's 16%. Back in 1970 it was $8.5k for $67k or less than 13%. | 2015-07-20T16:01:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38907 |
| I'll try to be more moderate on 2017, but I am bullish and see all the signs of a turnaround! As for the Saudis, you have a point - be careful what we wish for! | 2015-07-20T15:56:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38906 |
| I have to admit that my prediction for Saudi Arabia is based in part on wishful thinking, but they really are screwing up. I see a nation that has always made a deal to gain control of things now more interested in bullying and forcing their way. That will not suit them, especially not in the Arab world. They must have a lot of people cheering for their downfall by now. | 2015-07-20T15:54:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38905 |
| Europe is a joke. The sooner the Saudis get what's coming to them the better. I hope you are right about productivity but with all this going on in the world I can't see that the US doesn't have a lot to worry about. | 2015-07-20T14:34:03+00:00 | DJ Samuelson | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38900 |
| Yes, bless him! | 2015-07-20T02:36:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38891 |
| As long as there is demand ... :-) | 2015-07-20T01:20:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38889 |
| I don't see the capital controls being lifted right away in China, but gradually over a period of a few years. The correction comes as profits take a beating because investment goes up. Right now, companies have been milking their profits and sitting on cash - or, at least, they were. A correction will come logically as they set up for investment in the future, which they do appear to be doing - if slowly. So the timing is a correction before October, Chinese money coming in after that to make the correction short lived, and a real bull starting not before 2017 as the fruits of the investment start coming in. That suggests, again, that Europe turns around or is at least not looking like a basket case by then. That's the worst part of this bet from what I can tell. The real bull can't possibly start until there has been more investment and it starts to bear fruit (literally, creating an economic "spring") so there is a lot of delay in here. My investment advice is to look for high PE companies that are taking a beating on earnings because they are investing in themselves. But, as always, you can't time this because the horizons will be longish. | 2015-07-17T03:35:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38804 |
| The setup comes before 2015. We need a market correction I think before we can settle into the right pattern. But there is a chance for more capital investment. It didn't make it into this post, but capital investment is coming back after the 2009 dive. That's the key. With that comes hiring, and eventually full employment. We have to see that come around 2017, as I've said, and the capital investment is right on track for that. The real trick is for all this to occur and to maintain a low inflation regime. I think the retiring Boomers will help with that. If interest rates can remain historically low we have a real shot at a high PE start to the bull market. Again, I'm not dismissing Mauldin's work. It's good. But there is a way past this, I think, into a real bull. It would be nice if we had some support from Congress and Europe in this, too. That's the really ugly part. |
2015-07-17T03:11:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38802 |
| We are talking about individual investors, not the government. I expect a flight to quality at the first chance they get. They will be investing in a way to protect capital first, but that could be the spark that ignites a bull market and investment for gain. It's all a bit ironic in a way, but I see this as the spark. More on the next comment. |
2015-07-17T03:08:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38801 |
| Here's another thing - with about $2.8T in capital investment, the roughly 10M unemployed (by U6) need a net bump of $200B in additional capital investment, or a net increase of 7%. It's actually do-able. | 2015-07-16T21:19:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38782 |
| OK, I think we're totally on the same page here. Since you got all progressive there, I'll have to allow that I really do think this is all about the market for labor and there being too many workers for the available jobs, keeping wages low. As for investment per worker, I put together this graph: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=246736&category_id= I don't know what, if anything, it really means, but I can tell you that the net investment per worker has gone up 4X since 1947, and aside from some nasty bumps along the way it's rather linear. The recent dips seem to follow the job loss, so it implies that each worker needs a net investment of about $20k worth of equipment today and that investment in capital does create jobs more than it destroys them. I think, that is ... not entirely sure yet. |
2015-07-16T21:15:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38781 |
| Hey, I was wondering about something. Does a lower rate for capital skew production towards automation, or is it more likely that all capital investment needs someone to run the thing and therefor low capital cost still encourages employment? I'm wondering if you have found anything good on the relationship between the two. I think I don't even know what to search for. Thanks! |
2015-07-15T22:16:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38750 |
| I have come around to that thinking as well. One of the reasons I support a high speed rail system, for example, is that the more we can improve access for US manufacturers to the US market while reducing inventory the more jobs we can create making things for our market. It's not always a matter of cost, after all, but a matter of customization and fashion. Speed matters, and the better our high-speed infrastructure the better our advantage in our own market vs the big containers coming from overseas. Having said that, free trade does help as developing nations pick up. But that's a long-term thing that should not be our bread and butter, IMHO. |
2015-07-15T16:10:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38734 |
| Thanks! I don't know what you mean about the comment page, can you elaborate? | 2015-07-15T16:07:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38733 |
| It's not that I don't think there is a skills gap, it's that it seems to be very different than people think. The old industrial model was based on learning a good foundation in school and then getting an entry level job where you would gain experience and learn. That doesn't happen anymore. Companies are so slow to hire that when they do it's only for a very specific, immediate need. They don't invest in employees because there is no loyalty - which works both ways. Also, we are in a rapidly changing economy, meaning that there will be a skills gap given that it takes time for people to learn how to navigate what's out there. That can only be closed by time and there is little that can be done policy-wise to correct it. So we have to ride that one out, IMHO. Is there a skills gap? Yes, I think the evidence is there. But we can't solve it through the old model of "let's educate the kids in what they need today." It will take a commitment to lifelong learning, business investment in employees, and an acknowledgement that some skills are just hard to obtain immediately. |
2015-07-15T16:07:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38732 |
| Exactly. There may be a lot more to it, but that is my place to start. | 2015-07-15T16:03:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38730 |
| Agreed that this has to be as global as possible when we make changes, but I think there's a lot we can do on our own. The less overhead per employee the cheaper our employees seem regardless of currency exchange, cost of living, etc. That must be a priority, IMHO. It's very clear that labor is at a disadvantage in the US right now and anything we can do to even the score is going to help. | 2015-07-15T16:02:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38729 |
| First time I've been accused of being wealthy. Can I just say that it would be nice, or so it seems? | 2015-07-13T23:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38660 |
| Postscript - Looking at the last graph, I think I can say that there are indeed important inflection points in 1965 and 1982. GDP per worker, which is to say "productivity", increased from $45k to $67k between 1947 and 1965, or $1.2k per year. From 1965 to 1982 it only increased $0.5k per year. After that, it returned to $1.3k per year where it has been ever since, more or less. The inflection points in 1965 and 1982 are important because we know they are business cycles. They are the start of the economic Summer and Fall, to use Kondratieff terms. But what about the big cycle, changing to Winter in 2000? Productivity growth did not fall largely because though GDP isn't rising as quickly there are also fewer workers. This may be a feature of Depressions, and sadly we don't have this kind of data going back to about 1900. But it makes some sense to me, as this high rate of productivity keeps a lid on inflation and really sets up the Spring that we know is due around 2017. So what happens if we keep this productivity gain rate and hire more people? Prosperity for all! But what if we keep it and redistribute wealth differently - which is to say go back to one wage earner per family, cut hours, etc? A few things to read on the topic: The Year Everything Changes: http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/ Forward! 2015 & Beyond: http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/ And this interesting piece in the Washington Post on Bernie Sanders - more equity, even if it means less growth: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/13/what-bernie-sanders-is-willing-to-sacrifice-for-a-more-equal-society/ My take, in the end? We don't have a problem with productivity growth, but we clearly have a problem with inadequate demand for the products we are producing. We either need more demand, fueled by more money in the hands of the working and poor (or perhaps more open trade with the rest of the world?) or we need to accept lower growth. Either way, I believe greater equity HAS to be in the cards by the time 2020 rolls around. Either we work to master it or the market will do it for us. "Tax profits, not labor!" remains a starting point for me as a way to create more jobs, but a shorter work week may be necessary as well. Consider this a lead-in to what I write next. :-) |
2015-07-13T21:03:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38653 |
| On automation, I think we generally agree. Although, as I've often said, today's productivity gains are tomorrow's unemployment. As for the potential "skills gap", there is evidence that there is such a thing but it can all be explained by other things. I happen to believe that it's real if for no other reason than we live in a rapidly changing economy (and really have since the 1970s, more or less) which will always have problems like that. |
2015-07-13T20:38:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38651 |
| Yes, I'm one of the elite as a pale male. But there's still always room for raw numbers, not people. They tell stories on their own if you let them talk. | 2015-07-13T19:58:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38649 |
| Yes, that's pretty much it. :-) | 2015-07-13T19:27:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38646 |
| OK, automation is definitely part of it. The reason I was hedging is that I know it's not all of what's going on. A higher percent of the economy in finance, for example, has higher output per employee than manufacturing. | 2015-07-13T19:27:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38645 |
| Empirically it seems to be a good balance, yes. Would more be better? I'll look up Germany and a few other places that seem to be highly equitable. Germany seems to sustain a higher level of employment than most nations, for one, which is interesting. | 2015-07-13T19:25:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38644 |
| Agreed. It's a bit better than it was and that seems to be keeping people from outright rioting. The gains of the 1990s were really good, but not good enough - and they haven't continued in the numbers necessary to sustain another rise. That will take the Boomers retiring among other things. | 2015-07-13T19:24:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38643 |
| Yes - this was set forward by the same business cycle that started in 1965. There are so many effects from the end of the immediate postwar cycle that it's hard for me to tease them out, but the abandonment of the Gold Standard and the new global currency regime that came with that is a very important turning point. In economic cycle terms outlined by Kondratieff, we moved from an economic Spring into a Summer about 1965. That turned to Fall in 1983 and then back to Winter about 2000. Each season has it's own ups and downs, but we can see the patterns. This new Spring, which I expect in 2017, will have its own patterns. But what I hope for more than anything is a renewal along the lines of the last one - and a return to what worked so well then. I can send some links to the theory that 2017 or so is the Year Everything Changes. |
2015-07-13T19:23:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38642 |
| My contention is that a lot of this just happens for reasons that we really cannot explain, at least not while they are happening. It takes years of looking back to realize what mistakes were made and by who. But something very much did change in the 1970s, we can be sure of that. | 2015-07-13T13:19:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38623 |
| There is no doubt there was a big change around 1964-5 in business cycles. It's definitely worth looking at credit and how it expanded at that time. | 2015-07-13T13:17:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38622 |
| There's enough talk about cis and trans in the nooze these daze. :-) | 2015-07-10T20:15:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38526 |
| Thanks! | 2015-07-10T15:47:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38520 |
| Yes, it is. | 2015-07-10T15:47:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38519 |
| The developed world is aging, and as a result consuming less. The generations behind them are not as voracious and tend to be more interested in value rather than mass quantities. The same appears to be true of developing nations, where new wealth is being put into savings more than it is following the consumption patterns of the developed world. The net result is a drop in demand - part of the definition of a "Depression" which we have seen since 2000. I believe that some of this will continue, but a new economy based more on software - that is non physical things that make our lives better. |
2015-07-10T14:48:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38513 |
| I didn't say much about Venezuela, but they are the ones holding down the region at this point. It would be good to see some resolution out of there soon. | 2015-07-10T13:59:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38508 |
| Thanks! (I think ...) :-) | 2015-07-10T13:59:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38507 |
| I think the world economy is a lot stronger than it was in 2007-2008, so I don't see anything bad happening. But ... you never know. | 2015-07-10T13:58:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38506 |
| Generally, yes. One region no more than the others, I'd guess. | 2015-07-10T00:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38489 |
| That is a good place to start, yes. | 2015-07-08T19:19:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38435 |
| I used the "held by public" figure, which is only 71%. The Federal Reserve owns a lot of our debt. In retrospect, I should count that, too. | 2015-07-08T13:52:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38428 |
| The stock market is melting away the gains of the last year - and maybe more. It's not quite what we expected a year ago given how much it's run up since then, but cheap money created a tremendous bubble there, too. | 2015-07-08T13:49:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38427 |
| They have been generous with the public pensions, etc. That's very true. But it was all extended with a lot of debt they were allowed to run up for over 20 years, and they should never have been loaned all that money. | 2015-07-08T13:48:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38426 |
| Encouraging saving in a bank is not a bad idea for shoring up banks generally, yes. | 2015-07-08T13:47:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38425 |
| Unless they really hate their jobs. :-) | 2015-07-07T21:19:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38388 |
| And what kind of regulation makes sense? As far as I can tell, I'm the first person to use the phrase "Banking should be boring". Maybe it should be more or less on autopilot for reasons of transparency? Dunno. I also have work to do, but this is a good area to think about, generally. |
2015-07-07T14:55:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38382 |
| Fair enough. I was thinking the same thing. If the topic at hand is the role of banking in a democratic society, there are many ways of looking at it. Public debt is one component of the issue, for sure. There are others such as the large number of people who are "unbanked", which I have written about. There's a place for economic literacy, too. I was thinking about writing about this today. I hope I have time to try to pull this all together. What, indeed, does a free and open society need in the way of banking in this new economy? |
2015-07-07T14:26:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38380 |
| Thanks! | 2015-07-07T13:53:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38377 |
| A good article, if written from a distinct political point of view (which I try to avoid). Let me try to boil all of this down, if I may. When we talk about Greece, or really every nation at this point, we're talking about the corrosive effects of a large public debt load. This article reasonably calls out the threat to democracy imposed by all that debt - and indeed how modern economies have been run for the last 50 years or so. The call for a closed economy with barriers to entry I'll leave aside for a bit and focus on the problems with debt which everyone has. I completely agree that the dialogue with the Greek people about their future dealing with this somehow is absolutely critical. The other problem that I've been focused on is how such a large debt load can be managed economically, which is to say without a terrible burden on everyone in the end. It's really the same problem expressed in a different way. The short version is that debt is not being managed in a way that is consistent with any of our beliefs and values anywhere in the world. So how do we manage it? What really went wrong? |
2015-07-07T13:52:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38376 |
| Debt is indeed where it's at these daze. It's not always a bad thing, but even when it's done for the right reasons (investment, infrastructure) too much of a good thing is a bad thing. | 2015-07-06T21:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38344 |
| Are we next? Certainly, we're in a similar situation - although our debt is less than half theirs as a share of GDP (72% vs 161%). We also cannot either tax, cut, or grow our way out - it must take a combination of all three. But our supply of OPM (Other People's Money), the real OPiuM of the world, is a lot more limitless as long as the global standard reserve currency remains the US Dollar. That can't hold forever, but it will for at least a little while longer. Yes, we do have a serious problem, though not as bad as Greece. And as I've said many times before we have to confront it before it turns into .... this .... |
2015-07-06T18:43:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38338 |
| Yes, indeed. | 2015-07-06T18:40:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38337 |
| I believe they still have credit cards, but the banks are closed at least through Wednesday at this point. My understanding is that they had an active barter system operating even before this, so we can only imagine what's going on now. | 2015-07-06T18:40:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38336 |
| Good schtick at the start. :-) I think Varoufakis has led the financial equivalent of guerrilla war and, as a practitioner, hit and run. Greece clearly believes they have a stronger hand than anyone else does and that the risk of default will bring the creditors to the table on more favorable terms. I do agree that more default is necessary, but it is best for everyone that it happen in an orderly way. So far the creditors are not allowing that to happen. |
2015-07-06T18:40:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38335 |
| This may well be the right thing to do. But as noted in the article, Costa Rica paid a short-term price for default that was extremely painful. People do have to eat every day - and when you're not sure what will come tomorrow that gnawing feeling in the pit of your stomach will try patience far more than anything else. We really don't know what will come of this. That unknown is far worse than anything in the minds of investors and in the stomachs of hungry people. The standoff is going to continue, that much we know. The rest? I can't say. Do we need to bring banks to heal? I would say that yes, they have too much power in the world today. That power is measured directly in the amount of debt that is owed to them. The systems of the world need to reduce debt through a Jubilee before a disorderly default occurs, IMHO. I've been saying that for several years now. |
2015-07-06T02:41:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38319 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-07-06T02:37:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38318 |
| Thanks! | 2015-07-06T02:37:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38317 |
| Thank you! | 2015-07-06T00:22:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38307 |
| Amen! | 2015-07-06T00:22:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38306 |
| We still have a remarkable nation, but it can always be better. I would hope we would all want to keep at it, even if it is never perfect. | 2015-07-06T00:21:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38305 |
| We should all do our best to represent our best. It's just common courtesy! But this applies more when abroad, in my view. It may not be fair that people generalize about an entire nation from one experience, but we all do. | 2015-07-06T00:20:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38304 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-07-06T00:19:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38303 |
| More on this now that we have a "No". It's serious now. | 2015-07-06T00:19:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38302 |
| Far too interesting, I think. | 2015-07-06T00:18:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38301 |
| If I can summarize part of what you're saying - "When you owe the bank a thousand dollars, you have a problem, But when you owe the bank a billion dollars, the bank has a problem." :-) Yes, this is complicated for the EU. They really can't "kick Greece out" of MU, but Greece can make them look bad. That's why Tsipras thinks he has better cards, I guess. But the ECB just isn't blinking - they appear to be made of Greek Marble. |
2015-07-02T20:09:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38229 |
| As long as the EU doesn't fall over this, it'll be OK. You realize that buried in that €360B in debt is the roughly €15B tab for the 2004 Olympics - plus interest. |
2015-07-01T23:42:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38185 |
| It is a mess. But I think it will clear up very soon. This can't continue. | 2015-07-01T16:03:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38173 |
| I do not see how that deal is still on the table. And yes, it seems like a surrender - those polls that showed "yes" winning must have spooked them. | 2015-07-01T16:02:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38172 |
| That does seem to be the case. As for floating a new currency, I completely agree - I cannot imagine how that could possibly work. | 2015-07-01T16:01:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38171 |
| Thanks! I think there is plenty of room for the reader to make up their own mind on this. I have in the past expressed my support for Tsipras and the approach of finding a Greek way out of this - which is to say not just groveling at the feet of Germany and begging them for guidance. There has to be an element of growth for this to work, and that has to be a Greek plan. They can do it. However, in the short term there is a huge crisis that has to be passed to avoid a meltdown. I think Tsipras' desire to take this to the wall has not been a good process at all and it has created damage. But that's not the point right now - it's about getting everyone through this to the other side. To me, that's a very objective situation that requires definite action. |
2015-07-01T16:01:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38170 |
| I would guess that little has changed. It's probably cheaper overall, especially if you are coming at this with US Dollars - the Euro is really in the trash right now and should only go lower. I would guess that if you bring lots of cash Euros you will be treated like royalty! |
2015-07-01T15:58:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38169 |
| I do expect a lot more populism in the next few election cycles, but it's always hard to tell how it will catch on. | 2015-06-30T14:13:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38102 |
| Scalia has used the phrase "jiggery pokery" in one of his dissents. It is a strange term used to describe an elaborate deception, essentially a 3-card Monte kind of situation. The video is of Sandy Squirrel saying, "No more jiggery pokery!" from episode 223, "The Smoking Peanut". Yes, I remember a lot of SpongeBob. :-) |
2015-06-29T16:28:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38039 |
| It's a Democratic Republic - and through our history we've been more D one generation and more R the next. But, yes, generally we're more on the R side. But I completely agree with your assessment of what we need to do as a people, especially if we're going to be more Democratic in the future. Life is indeed far too short and if we don't focus on what makes us happy we'll all be stuck in the insane rat race working for someone else's dreams. Amen, brother. |
2015-06-29T15:06:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38035 |
| I would just ignore the far right people - I doubt they will get anywhere. Right now, we have a court that clearly has a renewed interest in taking charge of the situation, and it appears to be coming from frustration. I would say to that, "Welcome to the club". But there is reason to fear more power at the top and Scalia's point, at least in this case, is very valid. | 2015-06-29T15:04:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38034 |
| Where you got me was talking about "The Big Picture"(tm). That's what I think is completely missing on the left for far too long, and it's why I posted the work of Robert Reich without editing. We need this. I do think that at the end of this Depression we are at a major turning point. The economy is changing rapidly, and with it a lot of social structure. A new generation is going to start taking over as Baby Boomers retire. Where are we? Where are we going? There's a lot to work through - and if we don't do it together I have no idea how we'll have anything that works. |
2015-06-29T15:02:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38032 |
| That is an interesting way to look at it, but I doubt that members of the court look at themselves as servants of a ruling class. In the case of Citizens United, I was impressed by Roberts' opinion, naive as he was on enforcement. He had a point, and I don't want to discount it out of hand. I would very much like to see that go back to the court because I do think they have changed today. Scalia? Mostly a crank, yes. But ... we are seeing a much more activist court suddenly - without a lot of warning. It's worth taking note of. |
2015-06-29T14:31:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38029 |
| Thank you! | 2015-06-26T21:39:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/26/glory-hallelujah/#comment-37875 |
| A good point. We should question their loyalty first and foremost. | 2015-06-26T21:38:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/26/glory-hallelujah/#comment-37874 |
| Racism is indeed everywhere. In the South I feel there are indeed people who have been through the worst and as such are the very best at talking through it and overcoming it. But the scene still carries many things like the Rebel Flag that encourage racism more than anywhere else. Getting through that will only bring out the best, at least in the long run. My experience growing up in court ordered desegregation shows that affirmative action to stop racism really does work. | 2015-06-26T14:17:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/26/glory-hallelujah/#comment-37857 |
| Electrical and Computer Engineering or ECE now at most schools. :-) But seriously, there is work of all kinds to be done. We all do better when we all do better, which is to say that when everyone can reach their full potential of productivity and happiness we all live in a more productive and happy world. For some people, that's installing or physically making something. For some people that's thinking and designing. For some it's inspiring and leading. Each role is important and each needs people who can do their best. That takes education and opportunity. | 2015-06-25T17:12:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/24/a-new-democratic-platform/#comment-37802 |
| Reich has not endorsed anyone, and he speaks far more about Sanders than Clinton at this point. I would hope that he could influence Clinton and her team. You and I are on the same page with respect to this platform, as I said above. It is at the very least where the Democratic Party needs to start. The election is a great time to work very hard to sell this to the public and build a national consensus on these issues. |
2015-06-24T17:14:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/24/a-new-democratic-platform/#comment-37738 |
| Yes, I didn't say much, did I? :-) The short answer is that Reich takes everything a bit further than I would, but I support everything he says in principle for sure. I would like to see something more for employers in here as part of a bargaining chip - for example, I am still working on what it would mean if we adopted the mantra "Tax profits, not labor" - how can we reduce the overhead per employee to make higher wages, specifically the minimum wage, more palatable? But as an opening position from the Democratic side of the debate I think that Reich has done something absolutely wonderful. If this is what we debate and move towards compromise and consensus on we will do allright. |
2015-06-24T17:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/24/a-new-democratic-platform/#comment-37737 |
| We have to strengthen the bargaining power of labor one way or the other. Right now, working people are at a terrible disadvantage and are simply not getting their fair share of the pie. Some of that will work itself out in a tighter labor market, which as you know I believe is coming as Baby Boomers retire, but that alone is still not enough. | 2015-06-24T17:09:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/24/a-new-democratic-platform/#comment-37736 |
| Pluralism in society makes it very hard for people to express their own feelings about inspiration without the risk of offending someone. That does lower the overall public display of inspiration and spirituality. | 2015-06-22T20:49:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/22/pop-inspiration/#comment-37650 |
| I believe that people will always need inspiration of some kind. Communism, while atheistic, was built on inspirational messages more than most things! | 2015-06-22T20:48:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/22/pop-inspiration/#comment-37649 |
| People do like to be famous, which seems very odd to me as well. It's hardly "inspirational" to me. | 2015-06-22T20:47:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/22/pop-inspiration/#comment-37648 |
| Maybe? | 2015-06-20T05:05:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37530 |
| That does seem to be the case, yes. | 2015-06-19T21:39:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37514 |
| The "deal" with China in 2000 was apparently very one-sided, so there's at least some precedence for your position. I can't say I totally disagree. The Obama admin says this one will be different - much more progressive. I really would like to know what that means - but of course we can't know that yet. | 2015-06-19T21:39:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37513 |
| That seems to be what's happening. | 2015-06-19T21:37:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37512 |
| Thanks. A lot of news stories are just throwing around acronyms lately. It's really tough to get a grip on this. | 2015-06-19T21:37:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37511 |
| Set the style for many years ... | 2015-06-18T15:14:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/12/rockstar-2/#comment-37476 |
| Not really, it's a free market thing. Rent goes up, food goes up, gasoline goes up, etc. Raising the minimum wage would help life everyone, but in a weak job market it would be tough to do. I expect the job market to improve dramatically in the next two years, but that's an eternity when you don't have the scratch to pay the rent *this* month. | 2015-06-17T17:53:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37426 |
| Where we stand now, we'll find out in an hour. :-) Betting money right now is forward guidance for a rate hike in September without one right now. I still think we should have a small one now to show the markets who is boss. It's hard to say the stock market is properly valued no matter how you look at it. | 2015-06-17T17:04:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37424 |
| A good point - what is the state of jobs 5.5 years after the trough? I will get on that. | 2015-06-17T17:03:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37423 |
| It does seem to be part of a general trend, yes. It's just one step up from the "gig economy" we've talked about before. | 2015-06-17T17:03:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37422 |
| That is the real problem - wages are not keeping up with the cost of living. The part time work problem is secondary, but worrisome all the same if it keeps growing. | 2015-06-17T17:02:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37421 |
| I am definitely not one, no ... | 2015-06-15T20:54:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37292 |
| I generally agree, but he has a large body of work standing up for the marginalized. He has yet to crystallize it into a solid plan, however. | 2015-06-15T17:41:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37279 |
| I have something coming up from Robert Reich that I think will be far more interesting than what Sanders says. And he's a Clinton supporter. | 2015-06-15T17:40:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37278 |
| That may well happen. I do think that in the end Sanders' agenda will be adopted by Clinton and there will be unity - in fact, this may be a bit of a show being put on. But what matters now is that young people in particular are responding very well to the message. | 2015-06-15T14:04:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37268 |
| I wrote about some of these things in 2008, but a real movement never materialized. We just got Obama. So, yes, way past time. | 2015-06-15T14:00:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37267 |
| I think van Beethoven had similar fans in his day. But yes, Prince is a very good example of this tradition carrying on. I think we can see it in a lot of other artists, too, but not every one. Katy Perry, for example, always smiles and seems to really enjoy what she does. | 2015-06-12T15:16:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/12/rockstar-2/#comment-37138 |
| It's a bit silly to insist on a definitive answer, but I staked my claim. There was indeed an evolution. Handel was very popular late in life with his operas and specifically Messiah, and had a huge following. Haydn was stunned by the huge crowds that greeted him in London, making him something of a rockstar as well. I think Josh made the case for Mozart very well. But only van Beethoven was never an employee of a single patron. He was the first to make his entire career as a freelancer. And the image that he crafted was not only critical to making that happen, it's still with us 200 years later. Things were moving very quickly at this time in the transition to a more open, popular kind of music for the masses. Just a little later we have Rossini - what if he was the model for a successful artist? And he not only had a huge following, he became very rich. But through it all remained a joyful, funny man. |
2015-06-12T15:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/12/rockstar-2/#comment-37137 |
| Mozart almost made it. Almost. He would have been van Beethoven's teacher if he hadn't died, too. A lot of this is about timing, and Mozart was born just a bit too soon to be able to turn the corner and really make it as a freelance artist. He is certainly another image of "rockstar", but in the end the joyous Mozart as an icon or archetype was eclipsed by the tragic figure. Yes, I blame van Beethoven in part for that image. People only had an archetype for Mozart as one who spoke for the angels after he died, and thus didn't appreciate him enough in his life. But you do have a valid point all the same. :-) |
2015-06-12T05:38:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/12/rockstar-2/#comment-37121 |
| It's hard for me to see this, too, but if I'm right about the big turnaround in 2017 she may seem like a great leader by default. :-) | 2015-06-09T15:06:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/08/women-wielding-power/#comment-37003 |
| Excellent! | 2015-06-09T15:06:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/08/women-wielding-power/#comment-37002 |
| Most don't. :-) I do think this is less about what women are innately than the system that creates a different kind of leader, however. But if you want to argue that women are innately different leaders in a lot of ways, including less ego, it's hard to dismiss that. | 2015-06-09T15:06:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/08/women-wielding-power/#comment-37001 |
| I think you are absolutely correct | 2015-06-09T15:05:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/08/women-wielding-power/#comment-37000 |
| I think you are completely correct. Let's set up a timeline for the turnaround: Step 1: Jobs available (check!) Step 2: Employers are willing to cultivate young people to develope skills (not there yet!) Step 3: Employers have to pay to keep those employees there (later!) Give it until 2017, I say. We're getting there. |
2015-06-09T15:04:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36999 |
| A good guess, but what if I told you this is measured? :-) This is called the "quits rate", and it's one of the things that Fed Chair Yellen says she is watching as a sign the economy is picking up. It did indeed hit a terrible low in 2009, and is back about halfway to where it was in 2000. http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/ http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/ So, yes, you are right! But it is slowly getting better. |
2015-06-09T15:03:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36998 |
| Thanks! | 2015-06-05T15:51:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36773 |
| It's always a vague "technology" gap, which astounds me. There are plenty of young people with good tech skills, but they don't have experience. I honestly think that companies have to start hiring young people and cultivating them to grow with their company and stop insisting on a high level of expertise in new areas. One article I did not use might be illuminating here. While there is a lot of debate as to whether there is a "skills gap" at all, this article focuses on the role of a changing economy and the need for business to step up and do its part. https://hbr.org/2014/08/employers-arent-just-whining-the-skills-gap-is-real |
2015-06-05T15:51:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36772 |
| You are most welcome! | 2015-06-05T15:48:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36771 |
| Importing skills is one solution to whatever the problem really is, but I can't see this as a long-term solution. As you say, they are essentially indentured servants - tied completely to their job. That's not good for anyone. | 2015-06-05T15:48:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36770 |
| You make a good point. It may not have any real meaning. I am thinking about Gross Output (GO), which I wrote a piece about last August: http://erikhare.com/2014/08/01/new-measures-for-new-times/ This has the advantage of including semi-finished goods which are exported (ie, "Intermediate Inputs" or II). If you graph that and use a Year over Year change instead of quarter by quarter, you have this graph: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=240792&category_id= I think this is the best indicator of health we have. Gross output is gaining 4% per year, averaged over the last year. |
2015-06-01T18:52:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/01/gdp-down-take-it-with-a-little-seasoning/#comment-36590 |
| I think that's a little strong, but it is hard to say "GDP is ..." with any conviction. | 2015-06-01T18:43:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/01/gdp-down-take-it-with-a-little-seasoning/#comment-36589 |
| I know there have to be better numbers out there which are nothing more than the sum total of all goods and services, but I can't find them. People in the big banks do nothing but keep track of this stuff, but it's all proprietary. I am looking to see what kind of information I do have access to, but it's not at all obvious. We do need more raw numbers, yes. |
2015-06-01T16:11:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/01/gdp-down-take-it-with-a-little-seasoning/#comment-36578 |
| Aren't you a lot of fun? I'll just let you know that your assumptions about me are wrong and leave it at that. Whatever your problem is .... well, it's your problem. You're pretty far off the mark on my own shortcomings, though as a human there are always some. If you'd like to talk about the economy and the (grossly) imperfect ways we measure it, I'll still be here for that. |
2015-06-01T14:15:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/01/gdp-down-take-it-with-a-little-seasoning/#comment-36574 |
| Thanks! | 2015-05-29T03:07:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36493 |
| A very good point. If the net income from an area is declining, that's an important part of GDP. | 2015-05-28T17:42:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36485 |
| I have to admit I don't necessarily get it, either. I would prefer that it was a simple sum of everything, non adjusted. | 2015-05-28T17:42:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36484 |
| A very good point. I will see if non-adjusted GDP is available for comparison. I don't think a lot of things are adjusted. But what is? | 2015-05-28T17:40:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36483 |
| The software world does seem to be going both ways at once right now. I think it should generally be a capital item, which is to say purchased. I don't like the licensing / service model. It seems to me it is purchased like a capital good in most uses. | 2015-05-28T17:39:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36482 |
| You are absolutely correct that law and practice are always two different things. We have big problems with this in the US as well, especially when it comes to a well armed police force. | 2015-05-26T17:49:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36431 |
| Amen, brother! :-) There is a big generational change coming, and it is very much underway. We'll see it pop up in odd places before it becomes a big wave, but I think we can see it coming generally. | 2015-05-26T17:48:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36430 |
| I can't speak for Ireland, but Irish-Americans do indeed seem to fit into the categories you say. The Church is at least in a difficult spot, as the Archbishop noted. | 2015-05-26T01:22:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36400 |
| I was going to add up all the members of the various Christian faiths and Reform Judaism that have approved marriage equity, but it's nearly impossible. For one, most allow any given congregation to opt out - so they wouldn't count. I also don't trust the net counts of followers in bulk. So I punted on the exercise. However, it is entirely possible that a majority of Christians in this nation belong to a church that consecrates all marriages equally. There is certainly a very large number if it isn't a majority. So the question is a bit moot, IMHO. |
2015-05-26T01:21:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36399 |
| Thanks! | 2015-05-26T01:18:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/22/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery-2/#comment-36398 |
| It is between a lot of junkyards, the railroad, and I-35E. The surrounding neighborhood is very small, indeed. | 2015-05-26T01:18:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/22/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery-2/#comment-36397 |
| Indeed. We must remember the true cost of war to both honor it and understand why it needs to be rare. | 2015-05-26T01:18:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/22/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery-2/#comment-36396 |
| And there are always enough "facts" thrown around to justify the position anyone already has, so why would they change? Yes, it's a fairy tale. Our sense of reality seems rather limited the more we connect with faraway places that are difficult to understand with our old ways of thinking. |
2015-05-26T01:17:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36395 |
| An excellent point. I have been thinking about the infrastructure that rebuilds an economy and I have to say that from what I can tell the basics are still what matter the most. Roads, utilities, etc - and leave the rest way down the list. This does seem like very old thinking, and I very much agree that if you think through the process of decentralization in business today there is a LOT to chew on. Look for more to come. :-) | 2015-05-26T01:16:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36394 |
| Indeed! :-) | 2015-05-26T01:13:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36393 |
| Absolutely. If that idle money goes out slowly, which is to say velocity increases slowly, all should be good. But if it starts moving rapidly for whatever reason there will be inflation. Currently, velocity (I favor MZM) is if anything still going down. But it's a crapshoot. | 2015-05-21T20:00:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-36220 |
| I will go with that. | 2015-05-20T15:50:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36187 |
| No, probably not. States are the basis of our government and are sovereign. All the feds can do is to ask for reporting. | 2015-05-20T15:50:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36186 |
| The car plants that came into the South, particularly the VW plant in Chattanooga, seem to be good investments for the community. Do they really pay for themselves? I have yet to see anyone make that case, but in those cases I'm sure it's at least close. | 2015-05-20T15:30:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36183 |
| If you want to set up a good business climate either with low taxes or with a lot of really good talent that's worth the additional expense, by all means. But it needs to benefit all businesses if it's going to do what any community needs - stable work and a productive economy. | 2015-05-20T15:25:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36181 |
| Then don't. :-) | 2015-05-18T18:13:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36116 |
| Absolutely! | 2015-05-18T18:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36115 |
| Well, yes, we all get into things that are technical and hard to explain unless you've been there. It's hard to have a democracy when some of those entities have a lot of power. Especially the Legislature. | 2015-05-18T18:12:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36114 |
| Will do! | 2015-05-18T18:11:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36113 |
| Thanks! | 2015-05-18T18:11:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36112 |
| If all this money went out into the economy at once, you are right. The trick is to have a gradual turnaround, which is what we're hoping for. Stagflation would be unbearable right now, yes. | 2015-05-15T16:09:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-36000 |
| That is true. The whole environment has to loosen up after the disaster of the credit bubble. | 2015-05-15T16:08:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-35999 |
| I wouldn't say crash, but there will be pain. I do see a quarter point early in the summer and maybe another quarter later on - and that might be it for now. But when it happens there could well be a panic given how much is bet against it happening. And the word "bet" is indeed the right word. | 2015-05-15T15:56:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-35995 |
| This is what the Fed wanted all along, and since they can only influence money supply it was their contribution to ending the Depression. The missing piece is, indeed, that the money is not getting out into the world and doing good things like creating work, etc. A little inflation would indeed be a good thing because it would put pressure on everyone sitting on the money to spend it. But the plan just isn't working. That's basically what we call a "liquidity trap" in a nutshell. There is liquidity, but there is too much of it. |
2015-05-15T15:55:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-35994 |
| Yes, we never have unalloyed good news. | 2015-05-13T19:17:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/13/productivity-panic/#comment-35921 |
| That's about the size of it. If growth returns, it should all be OK. | 2015-05-13T19:17:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/13/productivity-panic/#comment-35920 |
| Good points. With increasing automation of so many jobs, raw "productivity gains" are often a sign that people are being put out of work. But does it work the opposite in reverse? I can't say that for sure. I can say that there is still decent job growth even as GDP growth sputters a little bit for well known reasons, so there does appear to be some investment in the talent for the future. Given how tight everything has been this seems to be something we do have to go through to get to the other side. | 2015-05-13T15:54:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/13/productivity-panic/#comment-35915 |
| So I am simply behind the times on my Canadian politics, eh? Well, that does explain things rather well. They do seem to have kept their populist roots, however, so a center/popular party would definitely be the kind of party I would see doing well in this environment! | 2015-05-11T20:53:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35840 |
| Fair point. But turnout was terrible, meaning that what was dished up by the two-party system was not to anyone's liking. One big difference in these parliamentary elections is that there are many parties, meaning there are real alternatives. | 2015-05-11T18:19:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35831 |
| I agree on all counts, but especially on Clinton (last names, yes!). She has to re-fashion herself as an outsider somehow, or at least someone who has a common touch. Bill will have to give her pointers. Generational change is something we will have to see. I think that as outsiders women are strong candidates all around. |
2015-05-11T18:18:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35830 |
| I have discounted the importance of generational change so far, which may be a huge flaw in my theory of what's going on. We certainly saw it in Minneapolis as I noted before. http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/ | 2015-05-11T17:12:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35826 |
| Thank you for your your additions! it's just a theory of mine at this stage, but it seems to be working. The two parts are that: 1) The developed world is experiencing a similar angst about politics so we are seeing similar wild swings everywhere, and 2) It is indeed about who we can trust and/or who will take care of business, not ideology. Everything is expressed differently in a parliamentary system vs a presidential system, so you really have to dig to get at the similarities some times. And we do have yet to really experience this in the US, with hyper-partisanship still reigning. But I think we'll get there, too. Funny things happen when the world gets really close, eh? :-) |
2015-05-11T17:10:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35825 |
| I have to confess I had one once, too. I don't remember what software I downloaded to get it, but it was nasty. I reinstalled chrome quickly to get rid of it. | 2015-05-08T17:24:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/08/online-ad-bust/#comment-35700 |
| I think we're getting some hints as to where and when it may be a good thing. | 2015-05-08T17:24:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/08/online-ad-bust/#comment-35699 |
| So for a retailer it may be very useful. I like that. | 2015-05-08T17:23:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/08/online-ad-bust/#comment-35698 |
| Well, that was an interesting election. It didn't go as anyone thought. How did this happen? I think whenever you have an election that goes against the last minute polls you have to say it was a gut reaction more than an ideological one. In the case of the UK, this was a rejection of Ed Miliband as a potential leader than anything else. My read is that people everywhere are becoming much less ideological and more interested in leaders who actually get things done - who provide a sense of stability. I don't think anyone really likes David Cameron, but he does have an air of confidence and competence about him. That may be what voters really like. |
2015-05-08T14:29:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35692 |
| Thanks for this addition. You make it sound as though the idea that advertising could be measured directly was never ado-able thing in the first place, however. I can buy that. | 2015-05-08T02:09:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/08/online-ad-bust/#comment-35676 |
| I think you hit the nail on the head. It was always a double-edged sword, but we chose to ignore the backswing until it got very ugly. | 2015-05-07T01:30:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35643 |
| I don't know that we can learn anything, but it's interesting that the developed world as a unit seems to be going through similar problems: 1) A lot of angst and even anger over the changes brought by globalism, 2) A totally mushy left wing with no real plans, and 3) A general lack of leadership all around. Basically, I don't know how any of us are going to get through this period of rapid change. The developing world should continue to gain on us if this is the best anyone has to offer, IMHO. |
2015-05-07T01:18:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35641 |
| Thanks! | 2015-05-07T01:16:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35640 |
| It's one thing to like the politicians, it's another to form a new nation. The long and short of it is that SNP is very competent but loyalty remains with the UK - by a slim margin. | 2015-05-07T01:16:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35639 |
| That's pretty much the story, yes. :-) | 2015-05-07T01:15:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35638 |
| They won't get more than 2 seats, if that. May not even get those. | 2015-05-07T01:15:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35637 |
| Excellent comment - this could be expanded to a post by itself! I think you hit the nail on the head, especially with the cyclical nature of this. In the 1980s, a company with a lot of cash was a takeover target more than anything. It was dangerous to have too much cash on hand. Perhaps those predators need to come out again? :-) With regard to running a company, I can't agree more. Insisting on the highest standards from employees and giving them real authority to improve things is at the heart of Six Sigma. That has to be combined with a great work environment that includes good compensation. That is how you run a company that provides good service and quality, which is to say a company with a decent and sustainable profit margin. |
2015-05-05T15:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35599 |
| That is exactly the problem. If you think it through for a while it gets scarier all the time. | 2015-05-04T18:49:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35582 |
| Pretty much, yes. The private banks are now running the show because they have the resources. | 2015-05-04T18:48:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35581 |
| Yes, the Fed is in a corner. They have limited ability to influence anything real as long as they are trapped near zero rates. Those deposits have to go out into the economy before they will have the freedom to set rates they used to enjoy. | 2015-05-04T18:48:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35580 |
| I am indeed looking for changes in public policy that are necessary to reverse this trend. I find it very disturbing, especially when you realize there is no quick way out of this. Even at just 1% the interest on $3T is $30B every year! | 2015-05-04T18:46:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35579 |
| I appreciate the expert opinion! :-) Thanks! | 2015-05-04T18:45:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35578 |
| It depends how fast it goes out, but that does seem likely at some stage, yes. | 2015-05-04T18:45:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35577 |
| Maybe. If rates go up, the interest on cash goes up, too. So rates have to remain abnormally low to favor investment in something that is not passive. That's the nature of the liquidity trap - it's very hard to get out of. What will change things is when income from investments in job and growth producing things outweighs that passive income. Getting there is the hard part. |
2015-05-04T18:44:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35576 |
| The investment is certainly overseas, even as the income is from here. The economy is turning around, slowly, but the net investment in America is very slight. I believe this is worth looking at very carefully. I would start with the overhead per employee, which I've been harping on for years, and work out from there. Wholesale reform is obviously necessary, IMHO. I also don't see a liberal or conservative approach as being appropriate - this will take a deeper understanding of how corporations have changed and how we need them to change in the next economy. | 2015-05-04T18:42:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35575 |
| I won't argue that my bias didn't come out in that. But it wasn't so much that I am personally against them paying taxes, it was that I was assuming that they wouldn't pay that much unless they were forced to. In this case, the blatant attempt to puff their stock came at a rather steep price. I find it shocking that they were willing to do pay out so much in taxes. That doesn't mean I'm against making corporations pay more. But the way we do it with a high marginal rate is hurting our collections because so much can be hidden overseas. It was an unfortunate choice of words all around. It could have been done much better. |
2015-05-04T18:38:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35574 |
| I want to "appropriate" this paragraph entirely from you, because I think it is very well said and more people need to hear this: "Who really knows when the lives of black people will be recognised and understood. I personally don’t think they ever will be. I don’t mean to come across so pessimistic, but having recently watched Selma, set in the mid 1960s, and looking at America today, how much has REALLY changed? Again, I don’t mean to undermine the work of the great MLK, Rosa Parks, Malcom X because I know things HAVE changed , but it gets to a point where it is actually just tiring, fighting for your right as a human being, just because of the colour of your skin. It is 2015 and being black is clearly still a crime. They love to appropriate the culture but find it difficult to embrace the people. " |
2015-05-01T18:32:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35459 |
| I think that's the most important part. If we all see history as a struggle like that, we have something to talk about. | 2015-05-01T18:29:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/01/a-workers-paradise/#comment-35458 |
| Comparing him to Jesus is pushing it real hard. But ... There is this quote from Hélder Câmara, Archbishop of Recife, Brazil and a major proponent of Liberation Theology: "When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." |
2015-05-01T18:28:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/01/a-workers-paradise/#comment-35457 |
| I think we'll skip the crazy, thank you. :-) | 2015-05-01T18:25:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/01/a-workers-paradise/#comment-35455 |
| You are completely right when you say that a direct application of Marx to today's politics cannot be done with any kind of rigor. That said, I think that his analysis of history has been completely accepted, and many of his goals have been accepted into mainstream politics. His prediction about where an industrial world was likely to go was rather accurate all around. And we have achieved much of what he thought an ideal state would achieve. The funny thing is that the Libertarians even get to claim him in the "whithering away of the state" part. :-) |
2015-05-01T18:24:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/01/a-workers-paradise/#comment-35454 |
| Thanks! Keep at it! | 2015-05-01T18:22:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35453 |
| Amen. And I don't think white people can ever really understand what it's like to be black in America, which is why we have so much trouble talking about this the way we have to. | 2015-05-01T18:21:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35452 |
| If you buy, I'm sure he'd be there! :-) Seriously, he's a good man who just speaks his mind. We need to talk about his openly, and his voice is definitely needed. | 2015-05-01T18:20:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35451 |
| Perhaps that is a bit much. But back in 1980 I heard that a lot after the McDuffie riot in Miami. The feeling was that no one would pay attention to the problems until it was obvious, making a riot inevitable. Perhaps Baltimore isn't quite the same, sure, but I feel like I've seen this movie before. The peaceful protests have been very powerful, and I do think we need to emphasize them more. That's the one thing I'd change in this piece if I had a chance to edit it again. However, I'm not exactly one to condemn the violence in the first place because I don't see what people honestly expect when they let civilization break down - and I do NOT mean a breakdown in any "broken window" sense of the word. |
2015-05-01T18:19:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35450 |
| Thanks! I'd love to hear your thoughts, too. | 2015-05-01T18:16:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35449 |
| Exactly. We have to see that $3T out into the economy before we can say things are "normal". And that means that with all the risk in the world investors have to believe they will get a better return investing than they will parking it in the Fed. To me, this only puts more pressure on the need for major policy/tax reform. We have to do something to shake things up and tell the world "It's different from today forward". I hope to tackle that on Friday once I get my head around it some more. |
2015-04-28T17:15:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35288 |
| I wasn't focused on that, but you're right - it is a big problem. It is worth talking about a lot more. | 2015-04-26T21:34:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35211 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-26T21:33:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35209 |
| It's not guilt, at least I don't think it is. I am trying to learn lessons from this. | 2015-04-26T21:32:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35208 |
| Exactly. More laws might just get in the way, anyways. | 2015-04-26T21:31:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35207 |
| Excellent. I don't want a bunch of laws about taking care of each other, I want us to just do it. I don't want a system, I want a culture. | 2015-04-26T21:30:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35206 |
| You got my point, yes. I took the judgmental nature from Christian tradition, yes. It may not be appropriate, but it helps to frame the view of a frustrated parent. | 2015-04-26T21:25:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35205 |
| Thank you. That is very good. | 2015-04-26T21:24:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35204 |
| Thanks, you read me well. :-) I'm OK. | 2015-04-26T21:23:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35203 |
| Yes, that is about it. :-) | 2015-04-26T21:23:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35202 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-26T21:22:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35201 |
| The population of Mexico is a lot more indigenous than the USA, so they have a better claim that they ARE the natives. | 2015-04-26T21:21:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35200 |
| Thank you for the clarification! I should have read down in the comments before I responded. :-) | 2015-04-26T21:20:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35199 |
| Did you just wake from a stupor? :-) | 2015-04-26T21:19:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35198 |
| It's hardly celebrated, no. It's picking up some cache from the celebrations in the US, but it's hardly the biggest holiday. | 2015-04-26T21:19:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35197 |
| Mexicans are more like USA residents (hard to say "American" in this context!) than anyone else. We really are brothers! | 2015-04-26T21:18:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35196 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-26T21:16:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35195 |
| Thanks! Mexico is about as diverse as the USA, and in some ways moreso with its strong indigenous roots. It's all part of the North American experience, and it's work talking about how much we share IMHO. | 2015-04-26T21:16:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35194 |
| That can work. Doorknocking your neighborhood and really listening to your neighbors can be a wonderful experience. Or were you being facetious? :-) | 2015-04-26T21:15:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35193 |
| That is the most important part, yes. I do think that ultimately it takes more than empathy, but it's at least a good start! | 2015-04-26T21:14:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35192 |
| That is certainly true, but I think the inverse is true - practicing kindness can get you out of your skin as it gets you closer to other people! | 2015-04-26T21:13:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35191 |
| Exactly! Balance is a dynamic thing, so we are always just a bit to one side or another as the balance point shifts. The skill seems to be in shifting with the world. | 2015-04-26T21:12:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35190 |
| That's fair. As a person who probably spends too much time outside himself, I would say that the ability to shift perspective when it is necessary is good enough. | 2015-04-26T21:11:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35189 |
| Excellent point! The greater your understanding of the world, the greater your potential command of it. A 360 degree perspective of a situation can only be to your benefit! | 2015-04-26T21:10:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35188 |
| See? Everyone does. :-) Hope it worked out! | 2015-04-26T21:09:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35187 |
| I know, you don't want to pay any more than you do. But we do have a deficit, and as long as we do we can't ignore it. | 2015-04-26T21:08:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35186 |
| Advice from the accountant! :-) I hope no one waited until the last minute. Wait, nearly everyone does. Nevermind. :-) | 2015-04-26T21:07:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35185 |
| I believe that a flat tax with a high deduction based on 200% of the poverty line, ie the basic cost of living in the US, would be at least as progressive as we have now. So I don't think we can argue that fairness or prgressivity is the main goal of the system we have now. | 2015-04-26T21:07:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35184 |
| I don't know if the IRS could ever send us a bill, but it could be done on a much simpler online form, yes. | 2015-04-26T21:06:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35183 |
| It is completely wasted. There is a general rule that simplicity works against fairness, but there is also a point where complexity works against fairness - and certainly against perceived fairness. Everyone believes that those who can afford to hire good accountants are getting a big break, and that does seem to be true. That's a huge problem. There is no excuse for the level of complexity we have. It works against everyone's values and expectations for an efficient and fair system. |
2015-04-26T21:05:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35182 |
| Thank you for reblogging! | 2015-04-26T21:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35181 |
| Thank you all for your comments and for being there when I need you. Bless every one of you and may depression never darken your door. Be there for each other as much as you can and we'll all be allright. | 2015-04-13T15:10:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/10/scenes-from-childhood/#comment-34299 |
| Bill has his foundation. It's been a great role for him. Hillary is indeed using her first name as a warmer, friendly brand - but I won't do that unless I think the playing field is genuinely level. I do not see that right now. | 2015-04-13T15:08:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34297 |
| Thank you very much! The role of women is something that has so many little barriers all through any process. When they leap over them we judge them on how gracefully they did it while men just walk around gladhanding. It's all quite crazy. I think calling it out easily is the best way to get everyone to just cut it out for once. | 2015-04-13T15:07:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34296 |
| Make popcorn! :-) | 2015-04-13T15:05:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34295 |
| Sen Warren has a long future ahead of her, but she wants to do what she knows either needs to be done or she alone can do best. I admire her greatly for that. | 2015-04-13T15:05:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34294 |
| Yes, she needs real "Hillary people" on her side. The last time was a horrible disaster to watch. | 2015-04-13T15:04:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34293 |
| Interesting point on the scandals, and I like it. No more stupid, please, and we'll get over the rest. :-) Sen Warren is a very conservative (small "c") person and knows what she can do in her time. She wants to be Treasury Secretary so she can do what she does best. She also wants to be a voice for the voiceless. I think of her as something like Henry Wallace, leader of the Progressive wing of the party and the one who pushed FDR to the left. There is a place for that, especially when it comes to energizing people. That makes Bill Clinton something like Eleanor Roosevelt, a role I think he would do well in. Happy days are here again? |
2015-04-13T15:03:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34292 |
| What is her myth? A determined woman who makes it on her own terms? The flip side of it, which is unbridled ambition no matter what? She does need to define herself, now that I think of it, but we know Clinton so well that I think the main thing she needs to do is appear human and warm. Cold, calculating Clinton is the "bad myth". | 2015-04-13T15:00:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34290 |
| Thanks, and as of right now I do. :-) | 2015-04-13T14:58:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34289 |
| I have given a lot of thought to female archetypes over the years, but I haven't written about them. Generally, I believe that we have to get past the need for them in the first place. But if you constrict your universe to "women in power" for an easy shorthand, what do you say? Elizabethan? Call up Joan of Arc? It gets strange fast. Sen Patty Murray (D-OR) was called a "Mom in tennis shoes" by Bob Packwood, and turned around to use it against him. Mom images always work well, and I like the idea of Clinton using something like "It's time for Mom to smack some sense into the kids running the show." But she won't. Still, it's a good archetype for women in power, and Mom is one of the few power figures that are handy. |
2015-04-13T14:58:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34288 |
| English has taken so much from French that some of these words and phrases really trip on each other! | 2015-04-09T19:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/08/cocktail-french/#comment-34136 |
| Yes, all of these are used in The Economist. A working class magazine might only use a few, but you'll see them from time to time. Here in the US I'd say they are almost extinct. | 2015-04-08T21:31:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/08/cocktail-french/#comment-34099 |
| merci beaucoup! | 2015-04-08T21:30:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/08/cocktail-french/#comment-34098 |
| Some are not common. But I have seen them all at least once in my life. | 2015-04-08T21:30:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/08/cocktail-french/#comment-34097 |
| That sounds pretty good. You, too, man! | 2015-04-07T03:43:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34017 |
| When using a blog as a resume item, it's probably the one thing that really counts. :-) | 2015-04-06T20:42:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34007 |
| Thank you! You've been with me at least 3 years, maybe 4 now? That means a lot to me, it really does. And you've been a great help on social media, too. Our Robotics team, 2491? We WON! Yes, we won the North Star Regional Tournament and are going on to the World Championships in St Louis. My life is rather upside down as a result, so I have no idea how I'll keep up this schedule. |
2015-04-06T16:12:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34003 |
| Thank you very much! You've been following me for about 3 years now, yes? I really appreciate that. Longtime readers are more important than anyone because you've stuck with me. Not every post is high quality - I aim for one really great one a week, or a .333 batting average. I hope I'm hitting that. :-) | 2015-04-06T16:11:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34002 |
| Will do! | 2015-04-06T16:10:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34001 |
| Ha! We all have to find ways to make something happen. I do a lot of assignments I really don't like just to pay the bills. The glamourous political commentary on the teevee? The people that get those gigs honestly seem to not have the slightest idea what they are talking about. Oh well. We all soldier on! I have my own li'l space here. It's something. |
2015-04-06T16:09:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34000 |
| Thank you very much! My goal is to get us all past the anxiety and master the change so that we have a much more positive outlook - and a better life. | 2015-04-06T16:07:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-33999 |
| Thank you very much! Consistency has been important to me - it's what separates an amateur ranter from a writing professional. I do like to demonstrate that more than anything else! | 2015-04-06T16:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-33998 |
| Thank you very much! 2008 was a real milestone, and I'm proud of that call. But I think it's more important to analyze it in greater context and see how we've been in something like a Depression since 2000. That took a lot more time to flesh out (really, not until 2010) but it should help guide us longer. If only the mainstream press could realize how handy that analysis is for explaining everything since 2000. Oh well. |
2015-04-06T16:06:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-33997 |
| Thank you very much, and a reblog is a great honor! | 2015-04-04T17:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33921 |
| One of those is an insult, the other is a compliment :-) | 2015-04-04T06:50:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33904 |
| As I have it defined here, there is plenty of room for morality in pragmatism. It is simply about how those values are realized, which is to say that a pragmatic person puts them into action. Pragmatism is more like technology than science. It's the reduction to practice that counts. Values tell you most or all of what you do. |
2015-04-03T20:21:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33880 |
| I was only positive about his second point. I kind of missed the part on Kissinger. I have never had a strong opinion about the Vietnam era. I could ask my Dad, an antiwar Republican. But I only remember strong arguments on both sides. |
2015-04-03T20:09:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33877 |
| Mostly, I think we need to turn down the volume on everything. I am OUTRAGED by the lack of civility! No ... wait ... nevermind ... | 2015-04-03T05:45:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33858 |
| See above. :-) If we do focus on a truly representative and functioning democratic republic, I think the problem with money in politics is obviously a top priority. So yes, we do have values to express - but we still have to be pragmatic in how we exercise those values and define the goals that they compel us towards. | 2015-04-03T02:42:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33838 |
| I accept that addition gladly. | 2015-04-03T02:40:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33837 |
| It's not that they shouldn't supply Apple, it's that you would think after the lawsuit the companies would part ways and compete more than cooperate. But they apparently need each other. It's rather strange. | 2015-04-02T20:21:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33818 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-02T05:09:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33799 |
| Doing just that. | 2015-04-02T05:09:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33798 |
| Yes. It's only going to get worse for a while. | 2015-04-01T20:22:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33784 |
| Yes, but it may be with my other projections and as an eBook where I can make some dough off of it for a change. I have a dozen or more posts on the trends that should define the next 5 years. | 2015-04-01T16:47:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33780 |
| Another Army saying. I'm going to lose my liberal cred, here. :-) | 2015-04-01T16:46:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33779 |
| Thank you! I do wonder about tech companies, particularly Apple. At some point you have to wonder what they really deliver to the consumers given that everyone uses the same parts. | 2015-04-01T16:45:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33778 |
| In retail and manufacturing, for sure. It does define both of them. | 2015-04-01T16:44:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33777 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-01T16:44:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33776 |
| I think this is an insult ... wait, no ... OK. :-) Seriously, I'm a mainstream liberal Democrat circa 1950 in many ways. I do believe in the power of the free market, but honestly think that "free market" is an ideal that has to be worked towards, not a naturally occurring phenomenon. And I do support a safety net for the vulnerable within that framework. This piece is on a trend that I see developing and becoming more important. My opinion about it is not important - just like my opinion on more automation or more workers on temporary contracts. What matters to me is that as this free market changes we should respond appropriately to make sure that things don't get more out of whack. For example, what does "price fixing" mean when everyone buys components from the same place? When is there an valuable trade association and when is there a collusive trust? These lines are going to blur. But I think we can see a trend here that is likely to continue for some very important reasons. And if we want to have the freest possible market (again, something I think has to be created by tradition, agreement, and law) then how should we respond? As for things like budget debt, etc - you should read between the lines a bit. What I'm worried about are the demographics when the Baby Boomers retire. Where I expect strong economic growth, it may not be enough to keep up with Medicare, etc. A structurally out of balance budget now is a train wreck in 2024 or so. |
2015-03-31T23:52:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33722 |
| Yes, in many ways we're talking about the anitdote to socialism. A free market can be brutal at times, but it's best for everyone when there is some cooperation - in their interest, of course. :-) I would argue that when it's all running properly there should be no interest in "socialism". |
2015-03-31T22:48:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33719 |
| Socialism. Happy now? :-) I don't know just where socialism figures into this, although it does seem to be obsessed with things like "leveling the playing field" and so on. But yes, "coopertition" does seem like a socialist concept if you have to boil it down really hard. |
2015-03-31T16:53:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33703 |
| You are right, academia is a really good example of competitive cooperation, but with a heavier emphasis on the latter. Perhaps a more technologically driven business world simply becomes more like academia? It would make sense, given that new knowledge filters through the scene in a certain way in both cases. I haven't seen Robot Wars in a long time! Wasn't Grant Imahara the emcee for that, or did he just to the robotic competitions? Either way, I would like to see more of that. Those were the "death robots" and they were a lot of fun to watch as they ripped each other apart! :-) |
2015-03-30T21:06:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33657 |
| Yes, it is about ethics. What I'm getting at here is the framework under which ethics are defined more than the ethics themselves. I think that ethics are going to remain very fluid for a long time, especially as there is a lot more change. The rate of change is probably going to settle down at some point, but probably not soon. Ethics can't really settle down until that happens, IMHO. But it would be good, yes! | 2015-03-30T21:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33656 |
| I do not understand their arrangement one bit, to be honest. Samsung should just cut Apple out of the loop and do their own thing. That may get them knocked for monopolistic behavior, but I think they have a good case for not willing to share - especially the stuff that is still covered by patents. | 2015-03-30T21:02:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33655 |
| I don't usually like words like this, which is a "portmanteau" of two others, but a term is necessary. It's a state of competition where everyone is mindful of the playing field and rules as much as the game itself, looking for places where everyone can get ahead at the same time. The next piece will be on logistics. I am going to tie a lot of things together with a follow-up after that. |
2015-03-30T21:01:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33654 |
| Pet food belongs to the Democratic Bug's Republic | 2015-03-28T15:32:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33546 |
| Did we really withdraw from the region, or are you just talking iraq? | 2015-03-28T15:25:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33544 |
| I believe that in the long run something like liberal democracy will come to the Middle East. It will be changed a little to suit their needs, and it may include a stronger emphasis on morality and related institutions than we would find palatable (much like Bolivar's vision). But it will come. As you know, in the long run we are all dead. But the example that we set as we wait is at least as important as force we apply. Why did the Western / NATO way win? Ultimately, very few shots were actually fired. We won because we were right and because we were generous when we needed to be. I go back to the inability to put up about $14B that Ukraine needed to turn westward back 18 months ago. It was far less than the cost of German Unification - and it was far less than what this is all costing us now. Helmut Kohl never balked at the price of Unification, knowing it was an historic moment. Would today's EU leaders do the same? How about the US? Are we that much more comfortable sending in weapons than real aid? Would we really have a Marshall Plan today? I think Anna raised an interesting point. |
2015-03-27T21:30:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33509 |
| That's a good point - what are we doing to make friends around the world these days? It may not be enough on its own, but we should be doing that. I will look into our aid and support of international aid agencies. That would be something positive. Thanks! | 2015-03-27T16:24:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33493 |
| I am coming around to that belief as well, yes. | 2015-03-27T16:23:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33492 |
| And we are responsible, ultimately, for far too much of what is going on. I still feel that whatever we can do to get Iran to stop screwing around is good, but there is remarkably little proof that they are deeply involved in Yemen. A strong hunch, yes, but that's really all. | 2015-03-27T16:23:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33491 |
| We need to promote peaceful trade first and foremost. All the weapons we send around the world appear to only get in the way of that, at least eventually. | 2015-03-27T16:21:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33490 |
| Thank you! It has been bad for a long time, but it is getting much more dangerous with this Sunni/Shia war flaring up. That could be a true horror that engulfs the entire region. | 2015-03-27T16:20:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33489 |
| It does seem to be that way, yes. | 2015-03-27T16:19:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33487 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-03-27T16:18:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33486 |
| Yes! That's why there is a Scientific Method - which has been with us for 2500 years. What is the thesis? What is the antithesis? How can you disprove the antithesis with a high degree of certainty? This can be applied to many things, including economics! | 2015-03-25T16:15:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33390 |
| Not exactly. But technology makes the learning useful in some way. Science deals in both questions and facts - new facts only ask new questions. Technology is really off to the side as something different. | 2015-03-25T16:14:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33389 |
| Evolution is a favorite of mine because it illustrated the Scientific Method very well. There is a thesis, a theory - "Living things change in response to their environment, and over time become different species". The way to "prove" this thesis is to disprove the antithesis - "Living things do not change in response to their environment." Now that we know that life does change when their habitat changes, we have proved the thesis. But that does NOT mean the story ends there! How do living things change? It wasn't until 60 years ago that Watson & Crick found the role of DNA, and we are still learning how to map it. And the role of epigenetics is still being understood. There is a lot to learn even after the thesis is proved! |
2015-03-25T16:13:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33388 |
| Thanks! | 2015-03-25T16:09:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33387 |
| Did you see that we are rapidly consuming oil storage capacity? http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20472 | 2015-03-24T22:31:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33351 |
| A very good point. Water is rarely re-used for reasons I don't understand - it seems to be very valuable to the process, yet it is wasted? The huge boom introduced a lot of practices that are totally outlandish overall, and as we take a pause we can look at what's been done and start regulating this a lot better. | 2015-03-24T16:50:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33339 |
| All oil drilling pollutes. It's a matter of finding a way that is tolerably clean, which changes from one generation to the next. In terms of general mayhem under the earth, fracking is pretty dirty. | 2015-03-24T16:49:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33338 |
| No, they are still subject to state and federal laws. The exact requirements vary from state to state, but all require water released to be cleaned up. | 2015-03-24T16:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33337 |
| As it stands today, I think I have to agree that fracking is too dangerous to allow. But that doesn't mean there isn't a way to do this safely. I would like to see pressure on the industry to find a way to clean it up and set a much higher standard than we have now. | 2015-03-23T16:34:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33281 |
| It's a slippery issue, and a dirty one, too. Nothing to get fracked over. | 2015-03-23T03:55:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33255 |
| I don't know how many people from the oil and gas industry were involved. My guess is not many based on the response. Thanks! |
2015-03-23T03:54:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33254 |
| Yes, I regard all North American oil as "domestic". I think in practical terms it is. As for "The Wealth of Nations", people treat it far too much like the Bible - that is, they tell everyone what it says without ever actually reading it. Adam Smith had a lot to say about a strategic perspective on building the economy, which is to say there is a place for some central planning. I wish everyone would read his stuff more clearly because I think we'd have intelligent discussions about a lot of stuff. |
2015-03-21T15:04:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/20/whither-oil/#comment-33188 |
| Greece is confronting this reality - but only time will tell us how much they are willing to get to work and be a bit more like the Germans they now loathe. | 2015-03-20T18:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-33147 |
| It is a mystery to me. I will try to find out who is making more, but my guess is retailers are simply not competing as tightly as they used to. For many years they made no money on gasoline, breaking nearly even as a way to lure people in to buy cigarettes and lottery tickets - where they made the dough. | 2015-03-20T16:26:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/20/whither-oil/#comment-33135 |
| It's very bad for conservation, but the net zero inflation is a good thing, yes. | 2015-03-20T03:32:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/20/whither-oil/#comment-33114 |
| Basically, yes. :-) Been wrong too many times to say anything else. The oil patch does go in waves like this, and it will come back. But this was a very quick and big wave, even by their standards. |
2015-03-20T03:31:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/20/whither-oil/#comment-33113 |
| Well, thank you! That's the nicest thing you've ever said! You're right, it would be really good to see every broad category for expenditures and receipts in one line graph to see what has changed. I think you're hinting that the idea that it's a constant share of GDP except for strange events is a weird one, and I agree that this is surprising. However, real GDP has gone up a factor of 8 since 1950 (!!) while population has just over doubled. So my hunch is that social payouts have been living off of the increased productivity (back to the robots!) which frankly is what they should be doing, IMHO. If only I didn't have to earn a living I could put all this together. Perhaps a kickstarter grant for a few month's living expenses is in order? :-) |
2015-03-19T15:53:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33077 |
| 1) Thank you for that link, it's a good article! I'm only ashamed I missed it before I wrote. 2) Note that inflation adjusted defense spending in the late 1990s is about $350B. That is what I am proposing. While we weren't at war in that period, the Clinton administration did have a tendency to wang cruise missiles at nearly everyone - to the point where we essentially ran out of them (hit our minimum stockpile). So we can't say that we were "weaker" at that time. I think this is a good goal. 3) Note the inclusion of the off-budget wars in the first graph - is that carried through in the other graphs? Pushing wars off budget really makes it hard to perform good analysis. Part of the reason I went with total federal outlays is that you can't hide anything in that number - social security outlays and everything. I think some of the other graphs do not include those wars. 4) In all cases, even mine, a lot of defense-like spending on homeland security, intelligence, and foreign aid is not included in any of this. It's another $61B for HS alone. I believe that this makes my point even stronger. The point is that the Federal budget as a share of the economy rises and falls primarily on defense spending, with the economy the secondary effect. That seems to hold true based on these charts. The political points that I want to make from that are: a) If you want smaller government, you have to support smaller defense spending. b) Auditing the Pentagon remains a high priority. c) While there is no "perfect" share of Federal government in the economy, somewhere in the 18-19 percent range is a postwar norm and should be accepted as at least reasonable by all parties. We are nearly in that range now, and a reasonable cut to defense (possibly pending an audit) would get us firmly there. Since you are a regular reader, you can see that I am putting together a series on how we get our Federal budget under control in a way that guarantees a certain degree of stability and sustainability while maintaining the ability to "pump prime" in downturns. What I have not said yet is that I think this is essential - a good idea in normal times, but critical as the population ages and the Boomers retire. This is what I think we have to do in the new economy that is coming, and the age of the population is a major feature of that. Again, thank you for this link. I think it makes my points even stronger. If you disagree (what, you? :-) ) please let me know (like you wouldn't :-) ). |
2015-03-18T21:05:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33038 |
| Yes, although sometimes I would put it as " who will make the diplomats do the job they were hired to, rather than foist it off on the military?" | 2015-03-18T16:10:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33031 |
| Yes, there is always a need for a lot of this. But 19 aircraft carries? Honestly ... | 2015-03-18T15:47:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33027 |
| Thank you for that perspective! Yes, here in the US we tend to look at things very differently - and I would say very destructively. Our status as the Global Policeman needs to be challenged in a deep and fundamental way before we can get our own house in order and we can be truly useful for a peaceful, prosperous world. I am presenting here an alternative way of looking at things - one that I feel is supported by data. I have not heard of "America By Design". I am fascinated by what you read about us now. :-) We do need a defense policy, and we do have actual enemies we must be vigilant about. But to do everything everywhere is utterly unreasonable. More to the point, we don't even talk about it at all. It's very destructive. |
2015-03-18T15:46:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33026 |
| No. The size of the Federal Government has been largely a function of the size of the military in the PostWar era. It's that simple. | 2015-03-18T15:41:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33025 |
| THAT may well be a huge problem, and I haven't found a good way to measure it. I'm not against regulation as a concept, but there are good ways and bad ways to do it. A huge book of regulations for every action during the day usually does a lot less good than incentives and support for doing the right thing. So, yes, I should look at that. I really don't know how right now, though. |
2015-03-18T15:41:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33024 |
| (I figured that. :-) ) | 2015-03-18T15:39:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33023 |
| My thinking is that we really need to put our house in order before we can even think about the kind of social programs that other developed nations have. My guess is that when we do, they will be administered by States rather than the Federal government no matter what. So where are we today? Perhaps the advocates of smaller Federal government are right. If you look at what the Feds do spend money on, so much of it only makes things worse from what I can tell - and at the very least distorts our foreign policy. Let's cut it all back by taking a real hard look at what we spend our money on. The results are rather surprising, IMHO. |
2015-03-18T15:39:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33022 |
| It is hard to see how ISIS, which does command our attention, really demands an expansion of our military. The number of strikes we are carrying out is not large, and is greatly exceeded by the training needed to keep so many pilots in shape. We have certainly helped to create many of the groups we now face, usually by accident. Getting out of all of this is only going to promote peace, from what I can tell. |
2015-03-18T15:36:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33019 |
| Yes, that is a lot of what happened. | 2015-03-18T15:34:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33018 |
| Ah, yes! :-) |
2015-03-17T05:29:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32945 |
| West End of St Paul, dude. Only way to go. | 2015-03-17T02:44:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32937 |
| Ideally. Hasn't worked out that way yet, however. | 2015-03-16T20:54:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32928 |
| South Minneapolis? Blech. | 2015-03-16T20:52:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32927 |
| Our politicians need to be on top of them first and foremost - they are the ones literally throwing money at the Pentagon with no accountability. | 2015-03-16T16:09:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32921 |
| Excellent, thanks for the professional opinion! | 2015-03-16T16:08:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32920 |
| States are required to be in balance at all times and are subject to more pressure from the bond market. Only the Feds could really be counter-cyclical, although they should work with states to do it. | 2015-03-16T16:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32919 |
| We do spend a lot on harmful things, yes. Your example of a football stadium is at least relatively neutral! If that was what we were fighting about, unalloyed good versus feel-good extravagance, I'd be happy. But yes, there is another component to this. For now, I would be happy separating out what we really spend on capital and, yes, insisting that the expenses (including interest) are indeed balanced. It seems only reasonable. But at some point a good discussion of what we get for the money is essential. As for jails - we need some, sure, but how many? When does it become the mark of a police state? It would be easier to highlight some of these costs if they were spun out, too. And if the major infrastructure cost is indeed roads it points to more gasoline tax, etc. The beauty of a good budget is that it visibly shows priorities - but our budget today is so confusing we can't see a damned thing. |
2015-03-16T15:26:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32914 |
| Exactly! A stable source of work that, if anything, is a bit counter-cyclical would help us all tremendously. And there's no reason why we can't do that if we keep our capital budget separate. | 2015-03-16T15:21:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32913 |
| Our defense spending is way beyond what anyone could consider reasonable, and definitely could be pared down - even cut in half. http://erikhare.com/2014/09/12/global-policeman-again/ We must re-prioritize this and audit the pentagon to assure that what funds they do have are being used efficiently. |
2015-03-16T15:20:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32912 |
| I sadly have to agree, however, at some point the system we have will break and have to be rebuilt. This is one thing to keep in the hopper. | 2015-03-16T15:18:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32911 |
| Thank you for reading and commenting! You are too kind! |
2015-03-14T23:21:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32853 |
| Reporting what is said at a forum makes you a primary source. :-) The quality of what is said is one piece of potential news, that it was said by a particular bureaucrat is another. I try to be pretty loose about these things that are clearly opinion, but there is still a place for truth in the world - I hope! |
2015-03-14T23:21:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32852 |
| Politics is "The art and science of human interaction." It is indeed everywhere, and often specific, ie "office politics", "gender politics", etc. I am a liberal in the sense that I believe that all politics and economics should be in the service and concern of people - not power or money for their own sake. But that doesn't mean that conservatives aren't right sometimes about the best way to serve people and make things happen. I love a good argument about these things and I do love being proved wrong because my arguments improve - there is no better way to become smarter. More than anything, I believe in being respectful of other people and when they express themselves I want to acknowledge it and thank them. Yes, more readers is a good thing to me. I hope to get more pay doing this kind of thing. :-) |
2015-03-14T23:18:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32851 |
| If he does something interesting, let's hear about it! | 2015-03-14T23:15:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32849 |
| Good point. We can expect a lot more of this. But Hillary has to be able to manage it all the same - and it will intensify. | 2015-03-13T18:13:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32818 |
| I am sure. They do seem to hate being called on their crazy. | 2015-03-13T18:12:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32817 |
| Which can be used to find something that is possible, but not prove that it is true. Generalization from one observation is the tool of a large number of cranks and crazies in the world - and quite frankly the source of nearly all evil including racism, sexism, etc. |
2015-03-13T17:55:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32814 |
| The key for her to "manage inevitability" (a phrase I'm trying to get to catch on!) is managing the scrutiny that every little thing is going to get. This one was totally botched, IMHO, even if there is nothing at the heart of it. She looks bad. | 2015-03-13T14:50:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32809 |
| You have an original document, which is good. And like many such thing, it contains some eye-opening parts to worry about. Military documents are hard to come by, as they are classified, and we also don't have a solid budget to compare operations costs to and see what's really going on. They deserve a lot more scrutiny. So yes, by all means, use the original source! But that has nothing to say to my point, which is that we are almost certainly not sending advisors to ISIL right now. That point says nothing about what awful things our military and/or CIA might be doing elsewhere, however. |
2015-03-13T14:48:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32808 |
| I stand corrected on the interference in foreign policy - while it's rare, it's hardly unprecedented. And I do firmly believe that talk about "traitors!" is way over-blown. Let the public decide - although in foreign policy a little more prudence is needed. Is Obama that different from Bush when it comes to War? Not different enough for me, to be honest. Your points are well taken all around, and I do want to see a new view on all of this. Desperately. The world is changing - our relationship to it must change as well! |
2015-03-13T14:45:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32807 |
| There are reasonable differences of opinion on ISIL and what we should do about it, for sure. But to say we are actively advising them while we bomb? That seems to me to require extraordinary proof - and none has been presented yet. You don't like comparing Hillary to Charles? :-) It was silly, I admit. The Democratic establishment has been treating her like him - both for good and bad - IMHO. As for sources - I think bloggers absolutely need them since they are not doing original reporting in the field. |
2015-03-13T14:38:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32805 |
| A good one. We really don't know yet just what she was doing. It seems to be a matter of convenience more than anything, but it seems pretty strange all around. | 2015-03-13T14:33:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32803 |
| That has to be the best compliment I have ever received! Thank you! | 2015-03-13T14:32:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32802 |
| Yes, that is the problem. I think we have some more examples here. | 2015-03-13T14:31:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32801 |
| Hold on now - I am NOT saying we should apologize - I'm saying we BOTH have to apologize systematically. And I'm saying that this is about far more than just nukes - we have to get Iran to stop supporting Hamas, etc. If we can do that at the negotiating table we damned well should. Anyone have any other method to get that to happen? If you do, I'm all ears. | 2015-03-12T05:40:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32760 |
| I understand that you want to take on the US War Machine. Just don't let yourself become a useful tool of the Russian War Machine in the process is all I ask. Have we done horrible things in the past? For capricious and unthinking reasons? Have we caused incredible suffering for picayunish reasons that actually harm our overall standing? Yes to all of that. But you can't pin Ukraine on us, no matter how hard RT tries. And your rant that includes a hilariously off-point personal attack only proves the point that I have been making all along - there is nothing there aside from Russian propaganda. I still see this primarily as a battle between two organized crime units, one based in Moscow and the other in Kiev, for control. And the good people who risked their lives in Maidan are in the crossfire between these gangs. I think you did a far better job of proving my point that this has become conflated with a lot of nonsense far better than I ever could. And I thank you for that. But please, think first about the good people of Ukraine and what they have to deal with first. If it's not about people and their aspirations for a better life then there's no point to any politics anywhere. |
2015-03-11T19:27:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32747 |
| Yes, they always manage to find a new hole. | 2015-03-11T16:11:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32742 |
| Two points on the "coup": 1) After Yanukovich fled, there were elections for President and the Rada (Parliament) within months. Are you alleging that these were not free and open and genuinely reflected the will of the people? Because no one, not even RT, has made that claim. And the installation of a properly elected government makes any claims of a "coup" one year ago moot. 2) There is no original source for these claims that it was a "coup". There are many threads of it bubbling together, many of which do indeed come from RT. There are quotes from various people taken terribly out of context, and there is the famous hacked phone call from Estonian FM Paet that is often taken very much out of context where he repeats some rumors for the EU FM. But there is no original source for these claims, no. As for Brzezinsky is one private person, and as a Pole seems to take a standard line among many Poles that Eastern Europe must be liberated from the Russians. There is nothing new in this proposal of his, and it is only a proposal, that the US has a central role in doing this. The question you should ask is, "Have we really done that?" The answer is no, we have not. Despite signing the Bucharest Memorandum in 1994 when Ukraine gave up nuclear arms and we promised to protect their sovereignty, we have not marched into there. We have every justification for doing so, but have not. Do you allege that we installed a government in Ukraine and then, despite a treaty obligation, deliberately left them to their own devices? Lastly, the theft of credit card information from Target and many other places has been traced to the Ukrainian Bratva (mafia). No one has been rounded up for this, ever. If we have such a strong corporate influence in Ukraine, why have we not put a stop to this? Why have we not gone after the perpetrators? The only conclusion that makes sense is that our influence in Ukraine is minimal and that this talk of a "coup" falls utterly flat in how it has played out since in our actions and the subsequent elections. And the lack of a genuine original source shows where the problem is in this case. |
2015-03-11T16:10:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32741 |
| In many cases, yes, that does seem to be what's going on. | 2015-03-11T04:06:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32723 |
| Jimmy Carter. Wait, if Angela Merkel can stare down Putin, we should send her in! | 2015-03-11T02:55:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32719 |
| OK, that's fair enough! We certainly screwed up Ukraine badly, and by that I mean the US and the EU. Skill and leadership are huge problems in the West right now all around. | 2015-03-11T02:46:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32716 |
| Thank you! And you do have a good point. We have a tremendous nuclear arsenal still, and the scandals relating to how we operate it are rather scary. That might be a good way to get some movement on the issue as we disarm. | 2015-03-11T02:44:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32714 |
| The state of journalism is very appalling, and does have a lot to do with the "instant reaction" that propels grandstanding. The way that blogs repeat stories and then add or conflate things that should not be present is very disturbing. I am trying to set a higher standard, but I am just one person. What is more important to me is that we have great discussion and comments from people like you - telling me where I'm wrong and modifying where I'm half-right. I think this works pretty well all in all. So thank you for commenting! And yes, climate change isn't about polar bears. In my family when we do something not quite environmentally friendly, like eat fast food in the car, we joke that "The polar bears are gonna take it for this one." It's crass, it's silly, but we have fun with it. It's a reminder that this is a bigger issue than most of us can handle. |
2015-03-11T02:42:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32713 |
| My feelings exactly. Our state is run well, and most states actually are. But to watch the legislature in action is sickening all the same. At the Federal level it is totally dysfunctional at best. Treason? I wouldn't go that far. But it sure was dumb. |
2015-03-11T02:38:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32712 |
| Yes, pretty much. | 2015-03-11T02:36:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32711 |
| Here is where I am coming from: Iran, as it stands now, is intolerable. Given that, what are we going to do about it? We've sealed them off from the rest of the world better than any other nation, but they are still about the same. Anything that can be done to potentially break the stalemate has to be tried. No, we shouldn't give up the important goal of a non-nuclear Iran in negotiations. But we should be at the table trying. It's worth it to everyone - especially Iran, and we need to make them understand that. |
2015-03-11T02:35:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32710 |
| Thanks! | 2015-03-09T16:37:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32665 |
| Good point! | 2015-03-09T16:37:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32664 |
| Thank you very much! :-) I want to encourage people to find these sources as much as possible to cut down on the dreck that gets attached to very important stories. Sensationalism and raw propaganda helps no one. | 2015-03-09T16:37:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32663 |
| Good stuff. It is worth seeing that again, yes. | 2015-03-09T16:35:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32662 |
| That's a good way to look at it. I was thinking of tracing how the Monsanto / Ukraine story evolved, but I think it's pretty obvious what happened here. People kept adding to it as it was repeated. | 2015-03-09T16:35:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32661 |
| It is useful to the regime to have a bogeyman in the US, so we are blamed for nearly everything. There are many liberals there and they march in the streets, respectfully, every Friday before prayers in Tehran. Things may yet change. | 2015-03-06T21:54:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32604 |
| You know, from his perspective you do have a point. OK, I'll be easier on Bibi - but only that far. :-) | 2015-03-06T04:42:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32583 |
| A good point, but remember that there is a LOT of money in it for them if they play by the rules. I would also wave that in front of their faces as much as possible, and if they didn't blink wave it in front of the young people who are a bit tired of living under the mullahs. | 2015-03-06T04:41:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32581 |
| Amen to that. I'm all in favor of breaking that cycle any way we can. In a lot of places, like Iran, we have only so much leverage - but I think we should do what we can. And that rarely means using our military to do work like that, IMHO. | 2015-03-06T04:09:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32575 |
| Again, they have never had a practical deal maker with any real power - the office of President isn't really that important, it seems. Khatami seemed pretty reasonable, but no one listened to him. Will they listen to Rouhani, if he is indeed practical? A lot to ask, so we'll have to see. I'm not saying this is an easy thing - if the P5+1 couldn't make any real progress in 9 years you know it's a bad problem. But I will say it's worth trying. Generational change is happening in Iran and someday, maybe a long time from now but someday, it has to change. |
2015-03-06T04:01:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32572 |
| I didn't get into it, but apparently they did sign the NPT under the Shah. That's why they are subject to inspection. They could have refused to keep going along with it after the Revolution, and sometimes they have, but mostly they seem to respect it in some form. It seems complicated, which is why I didn't get into it. It's not clear what they think of the NPT today. | 2015-03-06T03:57:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32570 |
| How can they trust us after we engineered a coup against their government and shot down their plane? It goes both ways, and both sides are in a slightly-warm war with each other. That's why I proposed a trust building exercise like I did. I don't expect it to cure all problems, but it seems to be a pre-requisite for getting anything done. We have to willingly push the reset button - both of us. If they aren't willing to do that I agree - we can't trust them. And nothing good can come when there is no trust. |
2015-03-06T03:55:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32568 |
| I have to reluctantly agree with you about the Mullahs - they are definitely holding the whole nation back while they dream of bigger ambitions. But Rouhani is at least a lot more practical than most, it seems. I think he is ultimately a deal maker. | 2015-03-06T03:50:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32566 |
| It all comes down to mistrust of this administration. But this is a UN Security Council operation led by us, not our show entirely. Perhaps that means even less trust in the end, but it's the way it is. And yes, there is more risk in not talking, given the status as a rogue nation. | 2015-03-06T03:49:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32565 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-03-05T18:10:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-32534 |
| I think this is a topic that needs a return to the basics. The press seems to assume that we know all about it, but over the many years people don't remember the details as to how we got here. | 2015-03-05T04:27:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32495 |
| Indeed. | 2015-03-04T17:14:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32471 |
| The Post Office Bank may be a good solution for small loans. There used to be simple usury laws to regulate the maximum interest - that would help a lot as well. But yes, there is a need for this as desperate as you have to be to, as you say, "borrow trouble". | 2015-03-04T17:13:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32470 |
| There is a definite need for bridge loans to payday, and a business came in to fill that need. But it's a predatory one that is in the process of being regulated a lot more, state by state. | 2015-03-04T17:12:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32468 |
| Thank you for this. I didn't know that the UK went to a universal monthly payday. That is a horrible burden on people - and the additional effects on small shops is something I would assume no one saw coming. Just terrible. The idea that people have to pay rent a month in advance is particularly shocking. Just a horrible situation all around. |
2015-03-04T17:11:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32467 |
| Wow. Thanks for your story, I can only imagine how horrible that was before you finally got clear of it! | 2015-03-04T17:08:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32465 |
| I haven't looked at the underground economy lately, but the last time I did it was big and, as you said, unreported. | 2015-03-04T17:07:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32464 |
| Yes, they will. There's a lot more money out there. I'm watching velocity to see when it changes from its downward spiral. That has been fueled by a lot more money coming into the economy than there was economic growth. When there is economic growth we have to watch out. The one thing that can save us is demographics - a large retired population tends to keep inflation down, along with velocity. |
2015-03-03T19:38:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32411 |
| Thanks, I am going to have to digest this. But I think it makes sense to me that the "banking glut", ie an excess application of supply-side easing during depression conditions in the early 2000s, is the problem. It's worth thinking through. | 2015-03-03T19:36:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32410 |
| No, I am not. Haven't heard that. It makes some sense in depression conditions, but with all the debt it also doesn't make sense. Link? | 2015-03-02T20:43:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32379 |
| That is always the goal - a rising tide lifting all boats. It doesn't often happen, however. Policy makers have to work for it - and Yellen very much is. So are the other Fed Governors, or at least some of them. It's so strange that they are on the side of working and poor people while Congress is on the 1% side. | 2015-03-02T16:30:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32374 |
| Yes, in order to get an incentive to save the Fed Funds Rate has to be about 3% or more - which is, incidentally, what we calculate it should be. So we are far from encouraging savings, and that is a problem. | 2015-03-02T16:28:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32373 |
| Very much so. I appreciate her a lot - we would be sunk without her. Imagine Greenspan and his gnomish routine about now ... | 2015-03-02T16:27:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32372 |
| Absolutely! Bernanke was good, but Yellen is exactly who we need in that position. | 2015-03-02T16:26:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-32371 |
| Amen, brother! I've been calling for a serious investment in infrastructure since at least 2009. It has a strong payback, too. http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/ Just imagine if all that money spent on propping up banks had been invested in this way - or if the unemployment benefits extensions had been matched with just a little more for materials and we got something for it all. It's been a big waste so far, but we can always invest in this nation. |
2015-03-02T04:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32358 |
| It's OK, this has no immediate effect on anyone but bond traders! What I think is going to happen is that a quarter point is already priced into mortgages, more or less, so there will be a minimal rise in mortgage rates. I expect that to continue through 2015 with so little pressure on interest rates. The same is going to be true for credit cards, car loans, etc. They will go up slightly, but not a lot. Over the longer haul? We need a stronger economy to help the middle class, and so I don't see them doing much more than a small rate rise this year - despite a reasonable guess that they really could by traditional measures. |
2015-03-02T01:23:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32344 |
| Yes, U6 is the key to me, and probably to Yellen, too. It's at 11.4% the last time I looked, which is to say over 10%. That's not good. I think when that hits 10 we will see some action - but that could easily be this summer if things pick up again. | 2015-03-02T01:20:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32343 |
| We simply will not have manufacturing growth until there is a weaker US Dollar. I don't see that happening for a solid decade at this rate. Nothing is stepping up to replace it yet. But I would like to see that, yes. After we adjust to shorter workweeks, that is, because a strong dollar makes a lot of that easier to do. | 2015-02-27T20:52:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32264 |
| I think the law and social practice mesh with each other. You are right that 40 hours as the law means less than it did before, but people still look to it as a standard. Both must change together - you can't just legislate social change! | 2015-02-27T20:50:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32263 |
| The machines, like the economy, have to serve us. That has to be the first principle! | 2015-02-27T20:49:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32262 |
| Thank you for that link! We may well be moving there, yes. I can see it. | 2015-02-27T20:48:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32261 |
| Thank you for your comments. I do agree there is a lot more peril as we move ahead than I certainly have talked about here. I wanted to present the case for how we will have to get a handle on the changes and make them work for us. It may not happen at first, and there may be a lot more upheaval before we get to where we need to be. Look at all the people that died in riots before unions were accepted, for example! That may well happen again. But I see the change as ultimately moving us from a world based on want to a world based on excess. Marx had a lot to say about this, and it is interesting. | 2015-02-27T20:48:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32260 |
| That is definitely a requirement. I think Sen Warren is getting it started, at least! The politics probably will happen last, as it usually does, so look for a movement first. | 2015-02-27T20:44:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32259 |
| So .... you don't like them? :-) I was thinking of an example from Japan's vending machine culture, but I wanted something more US based. I'm sure I can come up with other examples. | 2015-02-27T20:43:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32258 |
| It is humbling here! We are all equal in the pain we endure. :-) | 2015-02-27T20:42:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32257 |
| Thanks! I hope to get something going ... | 2015-02-27T20:41:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32256 |
| We need better pizza, too. | 2015-02-27T20:40:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32255 |
| Thanks! More than anything I hope we can talk about this. I wanted to present the positive case, which is to say what we can do to counter a problem - the way it was done before. | 2015-02-27T20:39:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32254 |
| Thanks! I wanted to present the potential positive argument, because it is possible. We need to organize - and the coming shortage of workers may be the opportunity. | 2015-02-27T00:42:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32208 |
| Gotcha. This is very good stuff, and thank you! There's a lot to digest here. I'm worrying more about macro-level effects of the economy (dare I say, "post-industrial"?) today but this fits into it very well. | 2015-02-26T20:23:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32192 |
| I think it's best to compare overhead between workers in developed and developing nations. It's not clear just how much pensions raise the overhead for German workers, as an example, so I have trouble making the comparison. But in their case health care comes from general tax revenue, meaning that there is less tax on employment. The overall compensation is the key, yes, but some of it is a fixed cost. We set up FUTA to be on the first $7k of salary, for example, which is essentially a fixed cost. That's pure overhead. It would be great to cut that back - and I am thinking about how we can have that come from corporate income taxes rather than as an employment tax. I'd also really like to have the employers FICA 7.62% come from the same source, but that's a huge change. Reducing this overhead has a solid chance for at least reducing the cost to employers of a solid Minimum Wage increase, for example, which would make an interesting bargain overall. |
2015-02-26T19:12:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32190 |
| Sorry to be so slow, I missed this. The value of the USD doesn't fluctuate with trade because trade doesn't fluctuate - it's steady. 85% of it is USD denominated, versus about 25% that goes through the US. That 60% of the roughly $45T in trade in 2015 is about $27T in USD that moves around the world above and beyond what you would expect if we weren't in this position. If you figure that central banks carry about 3 months worth of USD backed bonds to support their need for USD, this comes to about $7T in debt that we can float above and beyond what we should be able to otherwise. It's also about what our foreign debt holdings are right now. Without this we would have to finance ourselves, and be a lot more careful with our debt than we have been. It's a big effect. |
2015-02-26T19:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32189 |
| Well, the Euro is off about 20%. We can all buy a Mercedes, I guess. Or a Fiat. Wait ... Belgian Chocolate. Yeah! |
2015-02-26T05:03:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32174 |
| What we should do to help the global economy is far from obvious to me, however. | 2015-02-25T22:22:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32169 |
| I should do a "Dashboard" update to see where we are with that. I agree that right now they tell us they are watching inflation, but does that mean that as long as inflation is low we will have low rates? It seems to. I think it is time to get out of the "liquidity trap" and have some reward for saving - as well as to put a little pressure on speculative investment based on super cheap money. Screw inflation. | 2015-02-25T22:22:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32168 |
| Can you tell us more? Links? I am assuming that given people's ability to adapt to any situation and a genuinely free market that always springs up in some limited form no matter what there have to be fascinating crisis stories, yes! I'm not sure about "post-international" - the world is always going to have a global component now that trade is set up the way it is. But a balance with local resiliency and sustainability will mark the difference between a developed economy that works for everyone and an exploitive economy that enslaves. I would want to know what kind of genuine market springs up to create that, yes, because it seems to be the key. Can you tell us more! Always interested. I can't say I have anything other than observations from halfway around the world! |
2015-02-25T17:00:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32164 |
| As long as there was warm land to pillage, why not? :-) | 2015-02-25T16:44:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32162 |
| That is true, too. Space between people has a lot to do with attitudes! | 2015-02-25T16:44:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32161 |
| Thanks. It is. I just want to curl up and sleep! | 2015-02-25T16:43:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32160 |
| Perhaps it is more about heritage than anything else. The Midwest is indeed very German, which does emphasize privacy. But you have to give me the egalitarian "we are all the same" attitude as a cold weather feature. The cold does humble us! :-) | 2015-02-25T16:43:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32159 |
| I am starting to agree that, in the past, Greece has acted like a petulant child. If things have really changed then they deserve better. Reform of their tax system so that the government actually raises the revenue it needs seems to be the key. If they can pull that off they deserve a chance to do this on their own terms, IMHO. If nothing else they will finally have the ability to do so. | 2015-02-25T16:41:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32158 |
| Perhaps I was too hard on the EU. I agree that under the last government Greece went in on their knees and asked what they had to do. But things are different now with Syriza in charge. Will it be good enough? At least Greece has a Greek plan to deal with it, and both sides appear to be talking about a real, permanent solution. It's good, but it will take time. | 2015-02-25T16:39:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32157 |
| Thanks! | 2015-02-24T17:53:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-32122 |
| Thanks. The more I consider this and read the horrible job the press is doing the more outraged I am. Greece went to the EU on their knees and asked what they had to do. Now they have a new government that is standing up and doing something proactive. It's not being reported at all. The write-down (not a "haircut") on the bonds is a big part of the story. |
2015-02-24T06:29:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32108 |
| Thanks! | 2015-02-24T06:07:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-32106 |
| I like it! | 2015-02-24T05:08:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32104 |
| It looks to me like Greece has it's (feces) together much more than Europe does right now. | 2015-02-23T18:21:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32094 |
| Yes, that is the whole point. Dragging it out doesn't help anything. I remember a story from the one bank that survived the bank panics in the 1920s. The first day they made everyone wait in line, and the line grew. The second day they realized they were making it worse, and gave everyone their money quickly. No line formed. With no line, the flow of people demanding their money stopped, and some of the people from the previous day came back. Confidence is the key, and Europe has done nothing to create that. So they don't trust the Greek government - they need to get that government to the point where everyone trusts it and Europe has their back. |
2015-02-23T16:08:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32088 |
| Doesn't he look like someone you just wouldn't want to mess with? I think the Eurocrats have finally met their match. Thanks! |
2015-02-23T16:06:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32087 |
| I think it will be. They need to be treated properly, and that appears to finally be happening. | 2015-02-23T16:05:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32086 |
| So what are we going to do to change that? What can we change so that the workers at least have the protections they need? It's one thing to complain but another to work for real change. | 2015-02-20T20:56:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32021 |
| A deal was reached at the last possible second. They do indeed get to muddle through another four months. What comes next? We will have to see. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31556754 |
2015-02-20T20:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-32019 |
| Thanks for your comment! Your story is far too familiar. But this is the reality that we have to learn to deal with. I have a few ideas for a new post on this topic. I really do feel that major changes are in order if this is the new reality. | 2015-02-20T20:46:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32018 |
| That's a good point. It's really PT work in the first place, meaning that employee overhead is a HUGE issue, among other problems. If that's the case, and it seems to be for me, then this is certainly a permanent trend that reflects the nature of work itself. I keep wondering about Jim's comment as to whether this is a depression-end event or a real trend. I don't really know yet. |
2015-02-20T20:20:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32015 |
| A good point. But I wonder what skills wind up being in the gig economy and how people acquired them. I think that's a very big question, and I don't even know where to look for an answer. But I'll think about it. | 2015-02-20T20:18:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32014 |
| There is definitely an upper limit, but I don't think we are anywhere near it. More to the point, enough of the economy is in this kind of work now that we need reform just to accommodate what we have today - even if the level doesn't rise. How are workers protected? What does "unemployment insurance" mean in this environment? How are we handling health care? How are we taxing, especially FICA? There is a lot to think through and make serious changes. And we have a broken government that is incapable of even measuring the problem. |
2015-02-20T04:21:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-31995 |
| Several things here: First of all, I don't believe the BLS "lies". The U6 Unemployment rate is there for everyone to see, and it's still at 11.4%. That's down considerably, but a very large number. Nearly everyone agrees it's a good number, but the press hardly reports it. The problem we have with this, and all economic issues, is that the quality of reporting is horrible. I refer to that when it comes to the transparency of the Fed as well. Secondly, I agree that technology tends to reduce the number of jobs needed. I have speculated that there seems to be a limited amount of paid work in a developed economy, and that does seem to go down with more technology. It implies that the workweek has to be shortened or other social arrangements simply have to change to accommodate this. I think that Kurt Vonnegut saw this coming more than 60 years ago - and he was right. The trade imbalance comes from many things. The US Dollar as the world currency means that there is an increasing demand for the greenback proportional not to our economy but to the growth in world trade generally. Our greatest export becomes US Dollars - and it makes our manufacturing very expensive. Add to that a very high overhead per employee and the opportunities for working people are very limited. There is so much reform needed at many levels - and part of it seems to be a need for a new world currency based on trade. I'll read your stuff too and comment. But free trade agreements are good for everyone in the long run - but given the imbalances we have built into the system they are playing Hell on the working people of the US right now. If we are going to insist on free trade we should be taking much more positive reform action here at home, IMHO. Reply with some specific links, but I'll peruse your stuff as I can in the meantime. Yes, let's all talk about this! | 2015-02-20T04:18:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-31994 |
| Touché, mon frere! Yes, they will muddle through right up until the moment it is not possible to muddle through. I think that is still a ways away, but I admit that this is possibly much sooner than later. I am watching for signs that they are done. What would you watch for? Can we agree on the signs of death in advance? Good article, BTW, thanks! |
2015-02-20T02:24:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31990 |
| News Flash! Germany fudges like real Europeans always should http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/germany-leaves-door-open-to-deal-based-on-greek-proposal They are all pretty amazing at times, IMHO. Totally predictable, totally fudgy. |
2015-02-20T01:35:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31988 |
| First of all, EVERYONE needs an editor. Max Perkins, as an editor, made Great Gatsby as much as Fitzgerald. Second, the more practice you have as an editor the more you can learn to edit your own stuff - which is always much harder than editing someone else's. Now, the excuses ... YES - this needs a tough editor! It's also an old piece, about 15 years old. I know I can do a better job now because I've had a lot of practice. I should pull this down, but ... now that you've given very good criticism I'll leave it as an example. Yes, yes, yes! All around. You are right. Writing in vernacular spoken English is much harder than it looks. I have been practicing it for years and only recently have felt that I have it "down". It's worth reflecting on times when the rendering of spoken language doesn't work in print and why. |
2015-02-19T23:04:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/songs-poems/short-stories/noon/#comment-31976 |
| We will see if I am optimistic, indeed. It's turned a bit south since I wrote this, with Germany rebelling against Brussels and refusing to provide a six month bridge loan. But I think they will patch it together. Actually, I think I am as cynical as I am optimistic because I don't believe they will do something real or lasting, but really fudge how the whole thing is handled. |
2015-02-19T20:49:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31973 |
| It will be an excellent time for it! Everything is about 20% off with the Euro tanking. | 2015-02-18T19:23:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31942 |
| Yes. They have to take a stand and make it stick. | 2015-02-18T04:08:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31928 |
| Yes, that would make the most sense. I should calculate out how much debt that would buy down. According to this, they have $12T outstanding. The stimulus they have proposed is about $1.4T, so if each nation had the same amount as a proportion of GDP bought down it would certainly get Greece down into a more servicable range. http://www.eudebtclock.org/ | 2015-02-18T04:07:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31927 |
| I think that is in the cards, and exactly how Russia responds is an open question. It puts a lot of pressure on Putin, but the people of Russia have been fed a steady diet of propaganda that might steady them for a long fight against "fascism". | 2015-02-18T03:50:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31924 |
| There is only a little fighting going on, and the real test comes when Russia needs to remove its heavy weapons - which is now. If they don't do that I think the main action will be economic (though very nasty) and I hope not too much military. | 2015-02-18T02:07:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31920 |
| If Russia doesn't hold to the peace agreement by removing the heavy weapons, they will see their banking system cut off from the rest of the world by having SWIFT access removed. I hope that there isn't significant military action taken, though I fear there may be along with the very tough sanctions. | 2015-02-18T01:56:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31918 |
| That sounds like a good idea all around. | 2015-02-18T01:36:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31916 |
| Thank you for reading! One thing I didn't include in this piece, since it's really about Europe and not Russia, is something another German friend said to me recently. "How can Russia and Ukraine choose war?" he asked. "They suffered more than anyone. They must know better." Amen, mein Bruder. |
2015-02-18T01:36:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31915 |
| I didn't take any offense, but I do like it when people challenge me! Original sources are really important to the 'net and I wish more people use them. Thanks! | 2015-02-16T18:31:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31873 |
| I agree, Merkel is the one that can come out of this a real winner. BUT - they do have to find an alternative source of gas before we can see a real endgame. I can't see Russia ever playing nice as long as they have a monopoly. | 2015-02-16T18:29:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31872 |
| The Russians totally outfoxed the "free market" in this one. They always had a bigger, better deal in the works that made any alternative for Azeri gas (and anyone else in the region) not viable. As it stands now, Azeri and Armenian gas has to go through Russia. They own the whole European market because of their careful plotting. The EU can be very, very stupid at times. This is why I tend to laugh at conspiracy theories. |
2015-02-16T18:28:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31870 |
| It is largely a matter of cost, but it is an option. They need to site large LNG terminals in places that are safe, but there is one in Croatia that has been ramping up dramatically. The original plan for Israeli gas was all LNG, but they are looking at modifying that for obvious reasons. | 2015-02-16T18:26:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31869 |
| Thank you very much! Keep in mind that I provide links to other articles if you want to know more or don't believe me. :-) | 2015-02-16T18:25:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31868 |
| South Minneapolis? Barf. | 2015-02-14T21:25:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31796 |
| I predicted 87 percent of those things will happen to my children. | 2015-02-13T21:19:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31750 |
| This appears to be the best way to learn things like this, although I still think a program of Industrial Arts is essential in high schools. | 2015-02-13T17:42:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31743 |
| I agree! I can't wait for this generation to start running things. They are practical and dedicated. | 2015-02-13T17:41:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31742 |
| Thanks, it is a lot of fun. And learning all these things is an amazing process. | 2015-02-13T17:41:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31741 |
| Since we don't actually declare war any longer, like the Constitution says. | 2015-02-11T20:00:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31655 |
| I think that the shakiness of this whole system is why there were regular panics - and huge spikes in the demand for silver and gold. It's exactly what a Central Bank was created to put a stop to. It's all about going to a system where banks could create reserves of capital and put money to work, rather than sit around in lumps of metal. I should write about this, thanks. This is worth exploring. I think few people understand why we have a modern banking system. |
2015-02-11T19:56:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31653 |
| Thank you for the reblog! | 2015-02-11T19:26:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31651 |
| Thank you! That is indeed where I hope we can find ourselves, at a place where we are looking at the world as abundant and satisfying rather than full of scarcity and struggle. I think we are nearly there by any measure - but we have to change our outlook. That appears to be happening. | 2015-02-11T19:14:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31650 |
| You are most welcome! That is what I mean by "I don't break news, I fix it". :-) | 2015-02-11T19:11:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31649 |
| Thank you! I am going to make good use of this. I expected a lot of flak from people when I posted this, but it is indeed good company to be on the same side as Sen. Warren. In fact, I think I nearly always am! :-) | 2015-02-11T19:08:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31648 |
| They were very transparent about buying all the public debt, but it does deserve more explanation. If I were in Congress I would ask Yellen a lot of questions about it during her testimony. That hasn't really been done yet. Congress can, and should, get more direction from them on this matter and use the power of oversight that they have to at least understand the risk fully. | 2015-02-11T19:06:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31647 |
| See answer above. You want to make change? Look for the real enemies and get something done. | 2015-02-11T19:04:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31646 |
| The mainstream press does not report anything related to the Fed worth a damn, no. That is indeed the real problem. Alternative sites tend to be anti-Fed and have a huge chip on their shoulder, probably because they are reasonably suspicious of the power the Fed has. But their judgement is horribly clouded and they can't stand it when someone says "It's actually all OK." I am trying to get my head around public debt held by the Fed. The more I think about it, the less I understand the implications, frankly. |
2015-02-11T19:04:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31645 |
| Thank you again for reading and commenting! All of my posts include links to previous articles of mine or outside articles that I think really explain things well, if you want more depth on any one topic. | 2015-02-11T18:58:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31643 |
| The economy is just not firing up the way it should be. Velocity is still very low - but at least not dropping anymore. Can you imagine what it would be like to have Wells Fargo Dollars in hand when you have little of the ol' "Full Faith" in them? It must have been crazy to take paper "promissory notes" back then! |
2015-02-11T18:57:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31642 |
| I guess I can't say why credit is down. It may be all credit card or discretionary debt, but it may be that after foreclosure, short sales, and government bailout refinancing that mortgage debt is down, too. What is happening to the McMansions? A good question. I think the younger generation is much less likely to spend a lot on a home and much more likely to spend on a nice car or something they can wear like clothes and jewelry. They may grow out of that, but something tells me that they'll always want to have their wealth with them to a large extent. Children of a Depression, and all. And, again, it's called a "Depression" because so much of the effect is psychological. |
2015-02-11T00:16:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31588 |
| It's been going down for households since 2008, actually. People just can't get credit. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TDSP | 2015-02-09T23:26:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31541 |
| I see what you mean. I have to think about this. That's a long period of relative stagnation. But it does fit into what I've noticed before, which is that income inequality has been growing for a very long time (I'd say since 1968). | 2015-02-09T20:02:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31536 |
| Thanks! | 2015-02-09T20:00:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-31535 |
| Thanks! | 2015-02-09T19:59:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31534 |
| I think it's dangerous to use it to keep score. It's so fundamental. But I agree that we shouldn't be so emotional about it. | 2015-02-09T19:58:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31533 |
| Wasn't really supposed to be, but hey ... | 2015-02-09T19:57:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31532 |
| If people lose faith in the Federal Reserve it all breaks down. They have to watch for that. Tricky thing, ain't it? | 2015-02-09T19:57:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31531 |
| Normative responses to inquiries based on the relative attitude towards a public figure generally produce a sub-optimal degree of enlightenment vis a vis the prevailing economic climate. I would like a link for that - I see a lot changed around 1968, but I wasn't aware we had a productivity issue. |
2015-02-07T23:53:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31419 |
| I have to reluctantly agree that Supply SIde management is the best cure for Stagflation, the situation at the start of the 1980s. This is a Kondratieff "Summer", a situation that occurs once every four business cycles, or about 70 years as it runs now. There is also a time for Keynsian Demand Side Management, which is right now, also every 70 years. In between, solid management with an eye towards a free market that is truly accessible by everyone is the way to go. Wonder what it takes to have that kind of long-term wisdom in a democratic republic, eh? Seems unlikely, but we have to try. |
2015-02-06T19:36:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31353 |
| I could not agree more! If you want a healthy supply of investment, the key has to be savings. That democratizes the investment market and helps everyone out in the long run. This separation between an investment class and a working class is not good for anyone. The solution is that everyone has some investment income and everyone works - and there are rules in place that truly democratize and open up all the processes. I should write about this more. I do have a bit of a vision. |
2015-02-06T19:33:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31352 |
| We don't. However, the rise of the developing world will certainly pick up at some point, assuming they get their acts together. The rise of a real middle class is not going to wait forever in many of these nations, like Malaysia, Indonesia, Brasil, etc. We can expect it to come in fits and starts, but the trend is inevitable, IMHO. As for the US, I think we are well situated assuming we get some much needed reforms through. The retirement of the Baby Boomers will open up jobs and put upward pressure on wages - which as I've shown we are just starting to see. It's all a matter of managing the aging population appropriately, and to that end we have some things in place but not enough. But I think we'll do fine, if not very well. We aren't Europe or Japan, which have huge demographic and structural problems. They could drag the world down even more than they are now. And then there is China. If they develop a working middle class everyone will be fine. I have no idea what that will take. They may have to have a long pause and some political turmoil before that happens, which will be painful. |
2015-02-06T19:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31351 |
| I have always loved it, too. It comes back to me in a lot of hard times, like a beacon of hope. There are some great memories that come rushing back whenever I sing it! Thanks for reading and commenting! |
2015-02-05T20:01:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31293 |
| It is! But it is far from perfect and may actually introduce more volatility. Too much speculation has ruined the futures markets, IMHO. | 2015-02-04T18:05:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31241 |
| It may go back up to that by the summer, too, but I expect more like $3. It can't last forever, but we will see reduced production before that happens. It's not scaling back yet. | 2015-02-04T18:04:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31240 |
| My pleasure! Thank you for reading and commenting! | 2015-02-04T04:02:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31204 |
| I have in the past indulged in the speculation that this is a plot to screw Russia. But the truth is that there was no increase in supply - just a drop in demand and a rise in the US Dollar. There is no actual proof there is more to it than that. In the past, Saudi Arabia has been willing to cut production to boost the price to benefit OPEC. They aren't doing that now. My guess is that in a non-OPEC world they are unwilling to surrender market share and figure they can ride this out because they have the lowest cost of production. In short, it's more about protecting their interests in the long run than anything else. All politics, and business, is local after all. |
2015-02-04T04:02:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31203 |
| We're not freaks for grammar here. :-) Oil is so low that it will delay the hunt for alternatives, yes, and it also hurts American jobs in the oil patch. But overall it's good for the economy because we still consume an awful lot of it. | 2015-02-04T03:59:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31202 |
| And switched to a new one together. Yes, it's an ongoing issue, but I do feel that race is at least more complicated in the South. Big hunks of it are pretty cool now. Then again, Nawlins is still very uptight about the smallest shade differences. | 2015-02-03T05:36:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31137 |
| Racism has nothing to do with the South - it's an American story. Where I grew up in Florida I had the feeling that people were far more willing to confront the racial problem than they are here up North. That's not true for everywhere in the South, but a lot of it. | 2015-02-02T21:57:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31116 |
| I will try to once per week. | 2015-02-02T20:24:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31108 |
| Thank you! | 2015-02-02T20:23:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31107 |
| I agree. I have talked about this before, along with the whole sad history between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't discussed enough to give Americans any real context to this conflict. | 2015-02-02T20:23:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-31106 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-02-02T20:22:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31105 |
| I think a lot of Russians don't. The polls may be propaganda, it's always hard to tell. | 2015-02-01T04:14:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-31007 |
| Don't get me started! This frustrates me no end. A big problem in the Ukraine / Russia situation is that the only English language news we get from the region comes from Russia. So we have a huge problem with Russian propaganda filling the minds of people who are prone to this philosophy in the first place. I don't blame them for being skeptical of the lame US media and their line, but if they weren't lazy and/or ignorant they'd at least try a bit harder - maybe learn a little French or German, or seek out KyivPost.com But they don't. It's sad. The hard left is increasingly isolationist, and I'm sort of OK with that. But I'm far more internationalist by nature, which is to say get us out of the front of every problem and give us a strong supporting role. And I do with that people who have problems with the US are at least capable of understanding there is real evil out there that we do have to resist. We have to have a strong moral center to our policy, not an icy cynicism. Yes, the Republicans back their own bad people. But Democrats more and more just whine about stuff and look for proof of their elaborate conspiracy theories in hindsight. Not for me. |
2015-01-31T23:10:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30990 |
| THIS is something I can agree with! However, there will be a lot of death and suffering before that happens. | 2015-01-30T18:36:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30916 |
| He has done this before - In Chechnya. No one stopped him. We have to stop him eventually, yes, but I don't think this can continue forever given how weak their economy is. | 2015-01-30T18:36:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30915 |
| Nothing good can come of this, no. I think there is a role for us, but I haven't seen it defined yet. I agree that the EU has to take the lead, but when they need us to step up I say we should have their back. | 2015-01-30T18:35:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30914 |
| Ukraine has never really been released from that prison. Even if they are, so much of their history is not "institutionalized" by it. I only hope for the best for everyone. I know that the mafia state of Russia is not an example of Best. | 2015-01-30T04:34:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30883 |
| Local and state governments were definitely contractionary after 2008, and the Federal was after a binge in 2008-9. The Federal Reserve went whole-hog the opposite. It appears to have worked out, but the amount of QE it took is horrendous. There had to be a better way. As for Europe - honestly, I don't know, and I'm only comforted by the fact that no one seems to know. They have such huge demographic issues on top of the whole "What is Europe?" social and policy problem. I think the German hard-line is probably incorrect just because it's a hard line. But they have a LOT to work out and I wish them the best. As for asking Friedman and Minsky (not so much Steiglitz) I'd throw in Keynes and wish we could have a roarin' panel discussion. But the great minds only live on in what they wrote and what we can interpret, sadly. Not so many great minds today, eh? Larry Summers? Yeesh. |
2015-01-29T19:10:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30862 |
| I completely agree. The stat that I presented here can be used ONLY for a narrow argument that we are finally starting to see upward pressure on wages - a reversal of the trend downward from 2008-2012. A lot has to happen before we can say workers are in good shape, yes, and I still predict that things won't look genuinely positive for another two years. But we can see the trends developing that have the potential to create a real improvement in the life of working families as lessen the inequality problem. That it comes at a time when we can reasonably expect investment income to stagnate is especially interesting, IMHO. |
2015-01-29T17:30:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30857 |
| If you look back at 2012, wages were still falling. Most of the data used for income inequality arguments is older than that. It takes time to have a good picture put together with Gini Index, etc. So my guess is that Income Inequality is already improving, or at least stabilizing. Also worth noting is that this graph can't be used for income inequality arguments by itself, since it leaves out the unemployed (zero income). I can dig up the total earned income charts at the St Louis Fed for that and compare it to investment income. |
2015-01-29T07:20:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30844 |
| I meant supply of available labor or excess labor. | 2015-01-28T21:39:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30821 |
| With a strong Dollar it's unlikely, but the more we have customized / specialized demand the more advantage there is to being local in the same economy. So there is hope! | 2015-01-28T03:37:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30781 |
| Yes! Absolutely. And that will happen once some people start making more money the old fashioned way. Who knows, maybe even manufacturing can become "hot" again! | 2015-01-28T01:19:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30774 |
| Let's see if you got me being illogical and/or hypocritical. I support Israel, but do think that we should "dial down" support for them - or at least make them think it has its limits. They are aggressive when it comes to settlements and so on. However, they also have Hamas firing rockets at them. It's an immediate threat and I do feel they have a right to respond to that. What makes Israel different from Iran? Iran's ambitions are much larger in both territory and ideology. They are the natural protector of Shias everywhere, and seem to be willing to support a large number of groups with nasty tendencies for just this reason. Isreali nuclear weapons are a problem, yes, but their discretion and limited ambition makes nuclear weapons hardly useful for aggression. Iran, on the other hand, is in a position where nuclear weapons would easily fit into an expansion beyond their boundaries today. To me, that's very different. |
2015-01-27T19:28:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30759 |
| I won't disagree with you on this. The talks with Iran have been fruitless largely because Iran has no interest in complying with any international standards for the conduct of a nation from what I can see. Given that, isolation is a good thing. They got to that point because of their own local political needs - a hardline government clamping down on a society that was quite open and liberal for several generations. Isolation suits them because it prevents outside ideas from leaking in and provides an effective bogeyman to blame all their problems on. That's the rub - it won't change until there is more openness. What kind of openness is needed or even possible? That's where I can't say much more since I'm not there, which is why I don't write about it. How do you crack open the almond? I really don't know. However, a stronger hardline on our part only plays into the hardliners there, I am sure. Status quo until they are willing to join the international community makes sense to me, which means that years of fruitless talks will continue fruitlessly. Harder sanctions will likely be counter-productive. BUT - it's in everyone's interest to have Iran play by the rules. That includes Iran, I am sure. Getting them to that point is probably very nuanced and difficult, and I can't have a strong opinion about it because I'm not there. As for Israel they have several problems here. A nuclear Iran cannot be allowed, yes. But they also need to end support for Hamas from Iran, which is to say there has to be progress. Something has to change. Again, a strict hardline isn't going to be the most productive way to achieve that. That's where I'm coming from on this, but again I don't know enough to chime in on the details. No matter what, I do believe that Netanyahu's speech here is fraught with peril for those who support Israel and/or a hard line on Iran. I wrote this piece in the most neutral tone I could because no matter what anyone's opinion is on Iran or Israel this cannot be seen as a logical or rational thing to do with all the risk. |
2015-01-27T17:09:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30756 |
| A balance is needed even more than liberalization, IMHO, because a balance should provide some stability and peace that will allow liberalization to proceed at its own pace. The UAE, Qatar, and other Gulf Nations are doing pretty well along those lines as Arabia (I refuse to call it "Saudi") stagnates. There is a place for Israel, yes, and Hamas is terrible. But Bibi just pisses me off. |
2015-01-26T20:05:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30718 |
| If you are against our support for Israel, I agree that getting Netanyahu on prime time is a good way to put an end to it. But that seems incredibly destabilizing to me all around. There has to be a sane middle ground (yes, I realize I'm talking about the Middle East when I say that). | 2015-01-26T18:24:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30714 |
| Yes. They should keep Bibi in a closet! | 2015-01-26T18:22:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30713 |
| I could not possibly agree more. I think once Americans see who we are supporting in Israel that support for Israel will drop off to somewhere around the approval rating for Congress. That should demonstrate why a genuine Democracy (ie, not what's going on now) is a desirable thing. I have little doubt that 90% of the American public, once they see what's going on, will make the right choice here. It's THAT obvious. | 2015-01-26T01:27:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30677 |
| Thank you! I am so sure that this is going to be a disaster that I wanted to stake my prediction to the 'net with as much clarity as possible, and do it in a way that there was no taint of partisanship. I want this to be read by everyone. Because I am THAT sure of it - as are you. Perhaps this is really obvious - but it went right past Boehner and the Republican leadership. Are we getting a measure of just how dumb they are? |
2015-01-26T01:25:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30676 |
| Thank you! | 2015-01-25T21:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/writing-guide/edit-your-own-writing/#comment-30667 |
| One can only hope. | 2015-01-25T21:03:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30666 |
| Carson was a very smart man, if goofy. He knew how to steer the show, as did many of the great raconteurs of the day. Wilmore has the chops for that, yes. I was thinking about how it's a "black" show, and he may just be setting things up before we wanders a bit more. Again, he's very smart and very capable of working from a rather elaborate master plan. I also agree on the economics part. That's a good place to go next. There was a lot of that in the first week as well, so it's far from a stretch. This is going to be good! |
2015-01-25T21:03:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30665 |
| A thousand years is like one day in the mind of the creator. :-) | 2015-01-25T21:00:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30664 |
| The savior from the east, like emperor Vespasian? | 2015-01-23T20:25:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30567 |
| Does this imply that the Vikings are still terrible, or that they won something? | 2015-01-23T20:16:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30563 |
| A good point. I think Wilmore can steer through that pretty well. Now that you mention it, I can't wait for his first controversy! | 2015-01-23T18:02:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30554 |
| Not even if they make money at it? | 2015-01-23T18:01:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30553 |
| I will be watching shortly as well. :-) | 2015-01-23T04:30:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30524 |
| That is basically what I'm saying, yes. It has to blow up like the housing market bubble had to blow up. We can see a lot of this first in economics because people have to be out of survival mode and feeling flush before they can cross artificial lines of color, etc. | 2015-01-22T17:01:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/21/why-economics/#comment-30484 |
| Yes! You gave the environmental example, but we are rarely financially sustainable. We have to watch the budget deficits as well. I think the goal has to be sustainability and resiliency if we want to have a system that benefits everyone. Chaos is beneficial to those with the resources to ride or drive it only. | 2015-01-22T17:00:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/21/why-economics/#comment-30483 |
| Thanks! The discussion and new perspective is what I care about. Times of change require new ways of doing things, an I think we are in such a time. The Asian experience is a troubling one, because capitalism is producing a new middle class. I would argue that they do not typically have very "free markets" yet, and that the real benefits are open to a tiny oligarchy. But that may change, and it's hard for someone in the US to criticize them when we have been heading in the same direction! There will be social change there, too. We've already seen it in some places. Brazil is my favorite example of a developing nation going through growing pains that put people out in the street demanding more - and I expect this to happen in Malaysia and Indonesia sooner rather than later. South Korea did a good job of getting through this already, from what I can tell. But in the end, I leave it to Lao Tzu like i always do: "A great country remains receptive and still, as does a rich and fertile land. The gentle overcomes the strong with stillness and receptivity." Tao Te Ching 61 (Rosenthal) |
2015-01-22T16:58:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/21/why-economics/#comment-30482 |
| Yes, I did write this before the SOTU address and he seems to be focused on the next two years as a transition as well. | 2015-01-22T16:51:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/21/why-economics/#comment-30481 |
| Excellent! :-) | 2015-01-20T17:16:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/16/do-you-get-it/#comment-30342 |
| I have thought about this a lot. I have decided that this is just about the stupidest question I've ever been asked and, as such, is one of the wisest questions I've ever been asked. It deserves an entire 800 word post of its own, which I will do tonight. Thank you for asking the dumb questions, the probes deep into the basic assumptions that make up our world. We live in an "Emperor's New Clothes" kind of time where people do buy their own BS far too much, so it's good to periodically ask why the Emperor is naked. |
2015-01-20T17:16:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-30341 |
| Yes! This is not a huge crisis. But it's a big warning for businesses that rely on global markets. | 2015-01-19T19:16:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/19/franc-ly-you-must-be-kidding/#comment-30283 |
| Any quick change is a bad thing, for one. This hurts the working people of Switzerland by making employment more scarce as their goods are more expensive. Again, the currency war is about making sure your people have the maximum number of jobs. When oil goes down in the US our production goes down and a lot of people lose their jobs. | 2015-01-19T19:15:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/19/franc-ly-you-must-be-kidding/#comment-30282 |
| A lot of people in the 99% might suffer because of this, but you don't care about that at all? | 2015-01-19T19:14:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/19/franc-ly-you-must-be-kidding/#comment-30281 |
| I admit, I didn't see oil going this low - or apparently staying low as it now looks like it will. All I can say is that the Saudis are up to something and that's about all I got right in the first pass at this. As for job growth, by ADP we had a net gain of 2.6M in 2014 vs 2.2M in 2013, which is an acceleration of 15% - not a huge increase, and as I've noted I expected more, but it is going the right way. As for politics, I may have to agree with you there. I guess I'm just being cynical. I really don't see anything that big happening in the next two years with this Congress and this President. |
2015-01-14T18:36:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-29958 |
| I've been largely right so far, though I did expect more out of 2014 than we got. I agree that the big banks could mess things up, but I honestly feel that JP Morgan could fail today and we would hardly notice it. They are barely connected to the real economy at this point. | 2015-01-14T18:19:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-29956 |
| So are we going to take it back? That's the question for politics now that economics is on a more even keel. The system is working - it's a matter of for whom. Well? | 2015-01-14T18:17:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-29955 |
| I know, you don't like my way of looking at the economy and you certainly don't like predictions. But it's been working out so far. | 2015-01-14T18:16:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-29954 |
| But did the use of a gun really force respect? Has the terrorists' use of guns given us a new respect for them (which was my point)? The answer is no, it does not. We live in a world lacking in respect in many ways - and guns are apparently not improving that at all. If you think I am "anti-gun", you have a surprise. I am in favor of reasonable regulation, which I think we have in place here in Minnesota. For example, you can't get a concealed carry permit without demonstrating that you know how to use the gun, including a minimum score on a target. That is a good regulation and I support it, but it's hardly restrictive. But does a gun force respect? Logically, it should. But we have discovered that the gun alone does not. No one respects the terrorists and, to counter your point, the US doesn't get all that much respect around the world given how many people continue to mess with us. |
2015-01-14T17:26:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29949 |
| The response to nearly all of this remains what it was in WWII Britain - "Keep Calm and Carry On". Our connected world created the terrorists as well as the venues in which they operate. The more I think about this, the more I realize that aside from talking about respect there is little that we can or should do. A sense of order is very important. | 2015-01-13T20:45:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29888 |
| Yes! Expect that to be the trend of the summer - "Go to Europe, everything is so cheap!" | 2015-01-13T20:40:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/12/inflation-naw/#comment-29887 |
| We will need it. Maybe not now, but eventually. :-) | 2015-01-12T18:01:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/12/inflation-naw/#comment-29826 |
| Thanks! I'm trying to be more practical with it. | 2015-01-12T17:49:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29824 |
| I don't have any suggestions, no. The nature of work is changing so rapidly - here you are talking about being a partner in success while not having the security of a W2! That is indeed happening more and more, but what does it mean? Certainly, the more strategic any business can be the easier it is to have these relationships, but it still seems very casual. | 2015-01-12T17:49:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29823 |
| Thanks! | 2015-01-12T17:47:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29822 |
| It's fun here, except when it's this cold! Thank you for following! | 2015-01-12T17:46:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29821 |
| Yes, Congress really is the antonym of Progress these days. But we have so much to do, it is frustrating to watch them fritter away their power and time on stupid things! | 2015-01-12T17:46:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29820 |
| After the initial shock of the attack there is a lot more talk like this. I am glad. I don't want to blame the cartoonists because no one deserves violent death for their actions, but we cannot forget what lines they crossed. | 2015-01-12T17:44:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29819 |
| You are right, this is not a common thing. A lot about this stands apart, but the world may be learning from it. That is good. Hopefully more good can come of this. | 2015-01-12T17:43:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29818 |
| Malala is another topic to me in many ways, but you are right that at a fundamental level they are the same. We do have to support the right to print or say vile things, like these cartoons, in order to create space for critical free speech and effort like Malala's. It is very hard. | 2015-01-12T17:42:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29817 |
| There is so much we as a people need to work out. It starts with a greater understanding of us, as people - the whole world coming together. Respect is so important to this process, but so is free expression. We saw the two collide violently in ways that it's hard to make sense of. What we can say is that the whole world, western and islamic, has seen a number of lines crossed that no one wants to cross again. That is good. We know the limits now. Let's work on that. |
2015-01-12T17:39:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29816 |
| Pope Francis is a great leader at a time when the developed world desperately needs it! | 2015-01-12T17:36:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29815 |
| Excellent post, thank you! I especially like this: “Every organization has a destiny: a deep purpose that expresses the organization’s reason for existence." I am very interested in putting that vision to practical use, which to me seems to be the hard part. It's something like the difference between science and technology - and that is something I am trying to push together into an eBook. Thank you for your contribution to my thinking on the topic, this is a great addition! |
2015-01-12T17:36:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29814 |
| The timeline on that is up in the air. 85% of world trade is still denominated in US Dollars,but it's slipping a little all the time - slowly. Developing nations like China and Russia are very hot to put an end to that, but they only have so much pull. A strong US economy alone in the developed world puts the brakes on that change, I think, at least for the time being. Moving away from the USD won't accelerate until after the next boom cycle starts, I think, which is to say after 2017. It would be wise for us to support that effort, but a strong USD has such great political pull with US consumers I don't see that happening. |
2015-01-12T17:31:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/12/inflation-naw/#comment-29812 |
| Today's a good day to not be here, with this weather. Thanks for following! | 2015-01-09T00:06:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29660 |
| It may make for a long two years, but I hope that we can make some progress. Right now, all I see are efforts to hack benefits even more, which is ridiculous. | 2015-01-09T00:06:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29659 |
| Whenever I read highly Western reductionist thinking like this, I always compare it to Chinese thought. In this case, it works very well. A dynamic system is inherently more stable and not prone to collapse or stagnation, yes. Even though I am a Democrat, I see a huge role for Republicans. In the New Deal they often explained just why things wouldn't work, etc, and modified the more crazy Progressive stuff. It was a good system. But it worked because they were engaged - not like these showboaters. That's what's missing today, IMHO. |
2015-01-07T04:46:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29606 |
| Not so excellent! :-) Well, it was the most likely - but I did think they had his number this time. It was close. This should start a wholesale purge of the Tea Party from the Republicans, so stay tuned. | 2015-01-07T04:43:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29605 |
| I do not in any way want the Tea Party to run things, nope. But if they really try they may precipitate a crisis that could band together reasonable people, which I do hope happens. | 2015-01-07T04:42:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29604 |
| Excellent! | 2015-01-07T04:41:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29603 |
| Gohmert cannot win. I don't know of any Tea Party person who can. But they can really gum things up with their 11%. | 2015-01-05T19:17:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29570 |
| He has been a terribly unproductive Speaker, yes. | 2015-01-05T19:17:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29569 |
| No, the point was that Germans wouldn't send money to Rome. As is the point of the ECB in Frankfurt. | 2015-01-03T03:10:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29498 |
| You bet we aren't. :-) We still have some fight left in us, which you'll see the moment we start giving a damn about something. Whatever. :-) | 2015-01-02T21:45:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/31/2014-ex-machina/#comment-29492 |
| Excellent! | 2015-01-02T21:44:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/31/2014-ex-machina/#comment-29491 |
| Again, the system does work. It's a question of for whom. 2008-2012 or so it wasn't working for anyone. | 2015-01-02T21:43:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/31/2014-ex-machina/#comment-29490 |
| Thank you. One of the links I used above had a poll that shows that a majority of US Catholics support Francis' teachings all the way through, so I think more people get it than we might fear. As for tossing out the political labels of the 20th Century - yes! We should have done that 15+ years ago. The fight today is not between which institutions we favor, but about the proper role of institutions in general. It's something I was thinking about as I wrote this .... either it leaked through, or you read my mind. :-) More on that later. |
2015-01-02T21:42:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29489 |
| We should have had a Jesuit Pope centuries ago. | 2015-01-02T21:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29488 |
| This is a Pope who chooses his words very carefully at every event. :-) | 2015-01-02T21:39:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29487 |
| I think it comes down to the US as a leader, with the Americas coming on strong along with southern Asia. That makes this the new US Century. The developed world? Feh. | 2014-12-30T20:58:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/26/a-tale-of-two-worlds/#comment-29389 |
| That's the thing - who else could possibly do it? I don't see any of the Republicans doing what needs to be done. | 2014-12-30T20:56:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/29/managing-inevitability-the-clinton-story/#comment-29388 |
| I agree. | 2014-12-30T20:56:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/29/managing-inevitability-the-clinton-story/#comment-29387 |
| A good point. We will stand up to him eventually - but when? | 2014-12-30T20:56:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/26/a-tale-of-two-worlds/#comment-29386 |
| That's the whole problem. Inevitable takes time? :-) | 2014-12-30T20:53:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/29/managing-inevitability-the-clinton-story/#comment-29385 |
| U-6 Unemployment, the most comprehensive measure, fell from 13.1% to 11.4%, meaning something like 2.4M people have seen their economic condition improve - about the same as the net number of jobs created, meaning that the labor force is not growing (retirements equal young people over 16 coming in). http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Long term unemployment, 15 weeks or more fell from 5.8M to 4.2M, a net improvement of 1.6M people. That shows that the job gain is mostly absorbing the long-standing problem with long term unemployment that's been haunting us since 2008 and to some extent even longer. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13008516 |
2014-12-25T17:53:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/24/happy-christmas-happy-new-year/#comment-29241 |
| Merry Christmas to you as well! I think this will be a good year ahead. It's time now for one. All it takes now is an attitude adjustment. |
2014-12-25T17:47:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/24/happy-christmas-happy-new-year/#comment-29240 |
| A strong economy? No problems wishing for that. It's been far too long, especially for those who work hard for a living. It really has been 14 years since they received their share of the fundamental promise of our culture, "A good days' pay for a good days' work". That's my Christmas wish this year - that we live up to our promise. |
2014-12-25T17:46:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/24/happy-christmas-happy-new-year/#comment-29239 |
| Yes, but if all they can do is lower the price, OPEC ain't what it used to be! | 2014-12-19T01:19:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/17/lowdown-oil/#comment-29017 |
| Yup, it's below $60. But I really think it won't stay there now. | 2014-12-17T22:51:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/17/lowdown-oil/#comment-28986 |
| That would be fun, yes. Al Franken? :-) | 2014-12-17T18:38:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/15/sen-warren-politics-inside-out/#comment-28978 |
| Nothing helps conservation and the search for alternatives quite like expensive oil. Around $100 it seemed that we were making good progress without killing the economy, so I'd like to see it there. $60 is ridiculous, and I really don't think will hold forever. The people of Russia deserve far better. They need a real economy that provides jobs derrived from all these resources, and they need peace. We all do. But this is indeed a very dangerous situation. |
2014-12-17T18:38:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/17/lowdown-oil/#comment-28977 |
| Ha! Good point. But the Saudis have said that $60 is where they see it, which seems to be an admission that they really do have a target. Their bottom end is $40, the cost of production. |
2014-12-17T18:36:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/17/lowdown-oil/#comment-28976 |
| I agree all around, especially that I don't know what else she stands for. She seems to be campaigning to be Secretary of Treasury - which I'd be all in favor of. | 2014-12-17T18:35:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/15/sen-warren-politics-inside-out/#comment-28974 |
| They are, at least the minions on facebook, etc. | 2014-12-15T20:41:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/15/sen-warren-politics-inside-out/#comment-28916 |
| Amen. But their officers were human, too. Apparently some did intervene to keep order, but not to stop the exchange of good will. Today's warfare does prevent this event from happening again, and the horror at a distance is if anything more horrible. We have even more death and the soldiers commanding the drones have shown even more intense PTSD from the anonymity. But we do have moments, like this, in the middle of horror to show that people are still people regardless of what machine is trying to devour them in savagery. |
2014-12-12T19:08:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28862 |
| Thanks! | 2014-12-12T19:06:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28861 |
| It's apparently very difficult. People would much rather celebrate Christmas together. | 2014-12-12T18:22:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28857 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-12-12T18:21:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28856 |
| Wonderful! Thank you for the additions to the celebration of this great Christmas event. | 2014-12-12T18:21:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28855 |
| Thanks. Those critics who ask why we have to over what they paint as "ancient history" need to realize that there are many things in government right now without any adequate checks and balances that are also pretty alarming. This report shows just how bad things can get, and needs to be known. | 2014-12-12T00:00:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28824 |
| A very good point. There was absolutely no need for this other than the sadistic impulses of the torturers. | 2014-12-11T17:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28818 |
| I have come to believe that this is correct. The agencies need to be shut down entirely. The attempt to reign in the CIA in the 70s was somewhat successful, but apparently was not permanent. It's time to go. | 2014-12-10T19:34:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28794 |
| Thanks! | 2014-12-10T19:22:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28793 |
| Thank you for reading! | 2014-12-10T19:22:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28792 |
| Point well taken, but never before have are crimes been so explicitly described. It will shame us, at least if we have any decency at all because it was shameful. Yes, the crimes were the real damage to our nation, though. | 2014-12-10T05:23:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28780 |
| Yes. A good way to put it. While not surprising, it is still infuriating. | 2014-12-10T05:14:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28778 |
| Come up for air, then. | 2014-12-09T04:02:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/08/glad-tidings/#comment-28746 |
| 9M still unemployed, yes. At this rate we'll still have two years before we're at what is considered "full employment " (not quite zero, but a real unemployment below 4% solidly). Again, we're on track for 2017, but not before. | 2014-12-08T23:03:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/08/glad-tidings/#comment-28738 |
| It was edgy back then, yes. In a way, it's kind of hippy. | 2014-12-08T23:02:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/05/a-charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-28737 |
| Amen, sister. I personally think it's the "hokey" that makes it great. :-) | 2014-12-05T16:36:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/05/a-charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-28655 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-12-05T16:35:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/05/a-charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-28654 |
| That's why we insist that they tell us what the weather will be tomorrow - it's much harder and takes a pro. And with all the real-time data we can collect on the economy, it doesn't take an economist to tell us where we are at today - so .... do they want to still have jobs or not? :-) | 2014-12-05T16:34:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/03/wacky-weather/#comment-28653 |
| True. And it does just get warm in the middle of Winter at random, too. :-) | 2014-12-05T16:33:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/03/wacky-weather/#comment-28652 |
| It is always optimistic to think that we can look ahead to anything happening out here on the prairie, but a return to the "zonal" jet stream flow we enjoyed in October is a really good sign. We have to take it. :-) | 2014-12-05T16:32:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/03/wacky-weather/#comment-28651 |
| I didn't know it snowed that much in Indiana! Wow. Minnesota is a bit ridiculous, and you never know from one day to the next what will happen. But this year is especially weird. Fall was just great, November was horrible. | 2014-12-05T16:31:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/03/wacky-weather/#comment-28650 |
| As a postscript, we have the Comcast data for online sales. "Cyber Monday" sales were up 17% from 2013 to $2B, and overall the 5-day period from Thanksgiving to Monday saw a 24% rise to $6.5B. http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press-Releases/2014/12/Cyber-Monday-Exceeds-2-Billion-in-Desktop-Sales-for-First-Time-Ever-to-Rank-as-Heaviest-US-Online-Spending-Day-in-History The $12.3B figure above appears to include online sales, so it appears that online shopping may have exceeded brick and mortar for the first time. Given that these are all estimates I want to hold off on that for the final figures, but it appears that what has really killed Black Friday is online shopping. |
2014-12-05T16:25:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28649 |
| That's why I'd hate to have this done through a law - there's always a need for a few things to be open for small emergencies. If we can just stop the frenzy it'd all be OK, IMHO. | 2014-12-03T04:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28583 |
| It's about the presenter, not the content, which is always a recipe for disaster, IMHO. | 2014-12-01T21:24:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/21/boom-goes-powerpoint/#comment-28528 |
| I agree, it's a dumb stand. They will lose the youth, at least. It puts more demographic pressure on them just when they need less. | 2014-12-01T21:24:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/19/net-neutrality-heats-up/#comment-28527 |
| Well, it's down close to $2.50 now. So obviously the Saudis are willing to let it keep dropping. US production will have to come to a halt here, but that may take a while. Diesel is more expensive in part because they used to do a very easy refining operation on it, but new regulations required more sulfur to be removed. Refineries are slow to install the equipment because the demand for diesel is so low. So that keeps the price up. It's really lame all around. |
2014-12-01T21:23:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28526 |
| It fuels the world, bay-bee! :-) Second only to water as the thing we need most. | 2014-12-01T21:21:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28525 |
| I agree with that. We are managing risk in the worst way possible, which is to heavily socialize it. That's not good. | 2014-12-01T21:21:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28524 |
| Thank you for reading and commenting! All this work is for you! | 2014-12-01T21:19:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/26/be-thankful-not-fearful/#comment-28523 |
| I also worry about Minneapolis. PointerGate shows how on the edge they are. I tell you, every time I see the sign that says I am crossing into that town I hold my hand up and say, "Yup, still white, I'll be OK." My kids expect it from me. | 2014-12-01T21:19:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/26/be-thankful-not-fearful/#comment-28522 |
| It seems to be the norm, yes. That comes from the low interest rate environment, where rates are abnormally low. You have to take on risk to get a decent return. When rates go up and people are more used to small returns I expect this sort of behavior will stop. Then again, oil drillers have always been big in junk bonds even from the start. |
2014-12-01T21:18:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28521 |
| That makes sense to me. I don't fault going out shopping, really, and I know many families do it together. Anything like that I have to support. But the whole thing got very silly and destructive. "Black Friday" as a concept, toned down a bit, could be OK. Busy, but not a rush sounds great! Hope you had a good time. |
2014-12-01T21:17:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28520 |
| I do not think there were any serious injuries or deaths this year. So the worst is over. Glad you remembered that from this piece from last year. :-) http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/ |
2014-12-01T21:15:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28519 |
| The statues are Peppermint Patty and Marcy, and Patty is on a park bench. They are in Rice Park. I would LOVE more statues like those, although they are plastic and a bit cheesy. But yes, more fictional figures would be great! | 2014-12-01T21:15:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/28/cast-in-bronze/#comment-28518 |
| An excellent point, as always. Yes, there are those who are trying to make us afraid. The quote at the end is from Pope John Paul II when confronting Communism in Poland: "Be not afraid". | 2014-12-01T21:14:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/26/be-thankful-not-fearful/#comment-28517 |
| The taxpayer is only on the hook if they are big enough to kill a bank. There are no signs that this is true, but we don't know the relative exposure of any one company. If JP Morgan, for example, had $100B it would probably seriously wound but not kill them. So I think we're OK. | 2014-12-01T21:13:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28516 |
| I sure will. :-) But we have to wait 3 weeks. | 2014-12-01T21:12:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28515 |
| I'm distantly related to Harry Truman, if that counts for anything. :-) | 2014-11-20T22:39:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/19/net-neutrality-heats-up/#comment-28232 |
| You're a sharp guy! The city is already looking at how to connect Shepard to the Highway 5 bridge. How good the connections will be for bikes and pedestrians in any new bridge is also being considered. I like the idea of 3-laning West Seventh the whole way as well, and with any options for transit improvements I think we can also improve the flow of Seventh in part by making it more of a local street. So you're right in the mainstream of thought here, and something like what you say is very likely all around. I hope we can make it happen! |
2014-11-20T22:38:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-28231 |
| Good points all around. I don't know why people would be against this - if written well, that is. | 2014-11-19T18:44:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/19/net-neutrality-heats-up/#comment-28202 |
| He's a paid shill, he can take it. | 2014-11-19T18:43:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/19/net-neutrality-heats-up/#comment-28201 |
| Abenomics has failed, and it may yet fail spectacularly. | 2014-11-19T18:42:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28200 |
| Russia will be lucky to have zero growth. We are indeed the only strong engine in the world right now, and our turnaround is going to benefit everyone. | 2014-11-19T18:41:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28199 |
| Yes, the government shutdown is blamed on the weak holiday shopping last year. 2014 was not a good turnaround year, so something has to happen to make 2015 start out well. | 2014-11-19T18:41:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28198 |
| That is a very good idea! Has the same effect, but keeps it local. | 2014-11-19T18:40:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28197 |
| That is what we hope! | 2014-11-19T18:39:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28196 |
| This is entirely true. But one of the big problems in this so-called "recovery" period has been the very low velocity, or turnover, of money. That really does have to change before we will get out of the problems. If savings were put into the kind of loans that Credit Unions make things might improve, too. |
2014-11-19T18:39:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28195 |
| I don't think the voters like the choices they have. 37% turnout means 63% saw no reason to show up - that's a really large majority. The press, however, feels compelled to fawn over the dynasties. That is some sick stuff if you ask me. |
2014-11-14T21:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/07/progressive-in-every-sense-of-the-word/#comment-28048 |
| It is a lot, about 25% up and down. I would hate to have to budget for something like a truck fleet - although right now it's pretty easy. | 2014-11-14T20:09:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/14/crude-goin-down/#comment-28046 |
| A good point, as always. But if they are trying to get US production shaken out, they may yet win. I doubt they can do that, however, and I don't know if they think they can. |
2014-11-14T20:08:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/14/crude-goin-down/#comment-28045 |
| Thanks. It should last most of this Winter, probably into January at least. | 2014-11-14T20:07:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/14/crude-goin-down/#comment-28044 |
| Quagmire. | 2014-11-13T17:22:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27999 |
| The Free Democrats in Germany are my kind of party, and I'd like to see something like that here. But we have little to no space for more than two parties, sadly. | 2014-11-13T17:21:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27998 |
| Agree all around. The Republicans face a demographic problem as their voters are very old now. It is entirely up to the Democrats to offer the alternative, IMHO. | 2014-11-13T17:21:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27997 |
| It's pretty darned good! Thanks! | 2014-11-13T17:19:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/31/disruptive-philanthropy/#comment-27996 |
| Their percentage of food imported is about 12%, which is not horrible: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/food-imports-percent-of-merchandise-imports-wb-data.html But yes, they have to sell more than just resources they pull out of the ground to get out of undeveloped status, IMHO. There is a lot of value to be added to energy, such as making plastics (and related consumer goods) as well as electricity, etc. |
2014-11-13T17:19:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27995 |
| Yes, it is a cancer. We have to see it as such. | 2014-11-13T17:17:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/12/global-policeman-again/#comment-27994 |
| Hello, you must be new here. :-) My central thesis is that the Managed Depression started in 2000 or so, and should conclude on schedule about 2017. The nature of the next upturn - whether it includes the rise of the middle class or just the rich getting richer - is still up for grabs, IMHO. http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/ http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/ |
2014-11-13T17:16:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/19/industrial-capacity-is-back/#comment-27993 |
| I am not impressed with the movements we have generated so far - they are leaderless and rather passive. They have no strong agenda that can be pushed. When we have those things we can hold our politicians to them and then see how far we have to go for real change. Right now I'm afraid it's far too mushy, and Samuel Gompers, et al, would certainly agree. | 2014-11-13T17:13:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/29/the-secret-goldman-tapes/#comment-27992 |
| We will have to have some sense of Socialism, depending on how you want to define that. I have danced around Marx in many of these pieces without actually mentioning him, but it's clear that he was right about a lot of things. | 2014-11-13T17:12:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/08/paralyzed/#comment-27991 |
| I love Capaldi, period. But I agree that Moffat should NOT be writing so much - maybe the opener was fine, but after that he needs to have a team doing the work. The show is getting far too Moffaty, and that's a detriment to Capaldi's otherwise brilliant work, IMHO. | 2014-11-13T17:11:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-27990 |
| Absolutely! But there is a lot of history. Saudi Arabia and Iran were called the "Twin Pillars" of Middle East policy by Kissinger around 1970. If we had somehow managed to have both today things would be very different. As it stands, I think we have to just back away from Arabia, which should be a lot easier given that we don't need their oil. And I really think some sense of normalcy with Iran is essential. | 2014-11-13T17:10:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27989 |
| It is unbelievable that the principle of self-determination that was applied to the breakup of the Russian and Austrian Empires was not applied to the Ottoman Empire. We are still grappling with this horrific mistake. | 2014-11-13T17:08:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27988 |
| Yes, that is true. I don't think the Republicans have any good options unless they can keep themselves focused. That seems to be the hard part. The Tea Party is already gearing up for an utterly pointless fight on Net Neutrality, for example. | 2014-11-12T23:39:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27954 |
| Yes, but the total collapse of government comes from a complete unwillingness to bargain and compromise - and we have to blame that on the Republican Party leadership. | 2014-11-12T23:38:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27953 |
| I will check you out! | 2014-11-12T18:50:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27945 |
| Excellent rec, thank you! There is a LOT to say about the development of religious thought in the English Colonies - things adapted and changed very much as different groups came to seek relief. That includes the Catholics of Maryland, which I'd love to know more about. Lancaster County, my "native Homeland", is a very special place and it's hard to describe in just a few words, especially given my feelings for it. |
2014-11-12T18:50:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27944 |
| A good point. There is a separation of government and society in our system that is often hard to understand and relate to. | 2014-11-12T18:47:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27943 |
| Liverpool shipbuilders. Not a story that's often told, but there were a lot like us. | 2014-11-12T18:47:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27942 |
| They are authoritarian by nature, and yet in some ways they live a very natural and open life. It's kind of a parallel universe in many ways. I very much love and respect my "cousins", as I've come to know them, but there are a few things that very much bother me - almost all dealing with gender relations. | 2014-11-12T18:46:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27941 |
| I hope we can expect more than that. It is our nation we're talking about. | 2014-11-12T18:44:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27940 |
| Thanks! | 2014-11-07T18:50:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27794 |
| We don't have to get rid of them, but they do need to be reformed badly. And the only thing that can do that is a big loss. Democrats better take a lesson. | 2014-11-07T18:49:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/07/progressive-in-every-sense-of-the-word/#comment-27793 |
| I have a complicated opinion of Hillary Clinton that I think befits her complicated personality. She may not divide the party in large part because she is smart enough to avoid that. Yes, there is still a "Goldwater Girl" deep inside of her - she's certainly hawkish enough on foreign policy to show that. But she knows enough to let the next generation of progressive leadership have its way when necessary to build a coalition. FDR was, in many ways, dragged kicking and screaming into the New Deal. The Henry Wallace Progressive wing forced him into many key aspects, including very important things like the FDIC. FDR knew not to get in the way too much, and was willing to take credit when Progressive ideas worked. I think Clinton understands this, too. If there is a young Progressive movement she will do her best to co-opt it and use its energy. She would also be willing to be a figurehead on their key platform planks if it gave her room on things she really wanted. And she also knows that Progressives are right about a lot of things. Is this position too cynical or not cynical enough? I can't tell. But if Secretary Clinton runs (and I'm not sure she is) it would be with a plan like this. If she thinks she can't pull it off, I would think she wouldn't run. The key for Progressives is to organize and form an identifiable leadership and platform. It would be good for the party and, once co-opted, good for Sec. Clinton. How I really feel about her co-opting such a platform is something I'm still not sure about. If that's what it takes to get something past the oligarchy, it may be OK. |
2014-11-07T04:17:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/07/progressive-in-every-sense-of-the-word/#comment-27772 |
| It was a big night. But we'll see what comes next. | 2014-11-05T19:54:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27737 |
| Thanks! | 2014-11-05T16:23:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27731 |
| Feh. | 2014-11-05T16:23:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27730 |
| The poor hapless Guy, burned in effigy every year for over 400 years now. | 2014-11-05T16:23:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27729 |
| It's all just blather, really. | 2014-11-05T04:55:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/03/shadow-banking/#comment-27717 |
| It comes down to proper evaluation of the loans and how good they are, which I don't think has been figured out adequately - and most of Wall Street agrees. The industry needs to clean itself up, and they really haven't. | 2014-11-04T18:22:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/03/shadow-banking/#comment-27701 |
| That is a lot of what happened. Once banks lost the personal touch they lost the one edge that they had. Credit Unions own that now. The rest of it is just money. At some point this goes back to my "Economy of People" musings. | 2014-11-03T20:54:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/03/shadow-banking/#comment-27674 |
| But in the process, better things can (and must) happen! | 2014-11-03T20:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/31/disruptive-philanthropy/#comment-27673 |
| Thanks! This piece was one that I thought was pre-sold to another outlet, but it fell through. Thought I'd use it here. :-) | 2014-10-31T15:16:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/31/disruptive-philanthropy/#comment-27599 |
| All that sounds better than a mad rush of crazed shoppers. Also, we celebrate Thanksgiving very late, after the harvest, because it's really about our Constitution. Did this piece last year. http://erikhare.com/2013/11/27/thanksgiving-deliverence/ |
2014-10-29T18:16:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/29/saving-thanksgiving/#comment-27551 |
| There are many reasons why I do not think LRT should be run on city streets other than to make a quick connection. One is the terrible cost, run up by requiring utilities to be moved. The other is the space it takes up, which is tremendous. Lastly, it was designed for high speed (hence the weight and cost) and running it at 35 MPH is a terrible waste. City streets are generally much better served by streetcars, if your goal is local service. Also, keep in mind that we have service to the airport right now that takes just 30 minutes. That's the mark we have to hit. A line on city streets is not going to be a net improvement if the goal is to get people to and from the airport. |
2014-10-29T15:47:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27543 |
| Something good will happen, one way or the other. But this is still years away, sadly. | 2014-10-29T15:44:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27542 |
| "Europe" really isn't one thing, nor could it ever be. Is the United States really one thing? Sometimes yes, mostly no. Federalism is always a good answer, IMHO. | 2014-10-29T15:43:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/27/what-is-europe/#comment-27541 |
| Perhaps we can all support it and help make it happen? | 2014-10-29T15:42:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/29/saving-thanksgiving/#comment-27540 |
| That's terrible news, and I hope that it at least wanes this year. I have no idea who goes out shopping at 8PM on Thanksgiving, but there has to be something better for them to do. | 2014-10-29T15:41:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/29/saving-thanksgiving/#comment-27539 |
| Ha! | 2014-10-27T15:37:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27477 |
| We have no idea what the cost might be - there is no design to price out and we aren't even close. With any Mississippi bridge I would ask you to not hold your breath waiting just yet - it will be a big tab. I do hope it's less than $1B, yes. | 2014-10-27T15:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27476 |
| A good point. I think history shows that when the world gets smaller it eventually tends to break into smaller pieces at the same time - kind of a counter balance. It all comes in waves, and we're looking at the natural reaction to globalism. The wave of a grand "United States of Europe" is probably just spent. | 2014-10-27T15:36:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/27/what-is-europe/#comment-27475 |
| I have ALWAYS thought that the Ford Spur all the way to that redevelopment would be a great idea. Having said that, the Mississippi crossing becomes not only longer but more difficult - with a need to avoid Minnehaha Falls and the Veteran's Home. So it's one thing on the list to think about. It might be a brilliant idea, it might be a terrible idea. |
2014-10-24T21:39:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27379 |
| Thank you, Kent. Eloquent as always. This will be a long process. There is no need to rush to an answer. |
2014-10-24T21:37:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27378 |
| Very good way to look at it. Reminds me of when Majority Leader Reid talked about how he missed tending his Pomegranate trees. | 2014-10-24T19:34:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/08/paralyzed/#comment-27371 |
| Yes, what problem are we trying to solve? The short answer is congestion and barriers to continued growth, but that needs a lot more refinement. We also feel a need to improve the connection to downtown St Paul generally. Congestion? Well, to my mind that points to the Xcel Center more than just about anything else on the street, which is why I included the drawing I did. We very much need to define what problem we are solving first. A good point. |
2014-10-24T19:33:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27370 |
| We are thinking along the same lines. The tracks end just before Sibley Plaza, however, and also pass through a neighborhood just south of Randolph in a way that is rather horrible. Other than that ... well, those are two rather big problems. :-) I would love to see stations at Randolph and around Montreal with connections to the West Seventh Streetcar. :-) |
2014-10-24T19:30:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27369 |
| Maybe, is all I'll say now. I favor the existing tracks at least as far as we can run it on them, but I have to keep an open mind. | 2014-10-24T19:28:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27368 |
| Things are getting more than a little Medieval out there, aren't they? | 2014-10-23T18:51:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27327 |
| It's not clear what they want to be, as a nation, today. Sometimes they look towards the West, sometimes they retreat (and punish Ukraine for looking West). With all their resources, they could be a lot. But it's in the hands of a few oligarchs who have their own designs - and I think it's very clear that Putin serves them, not the other way around. |
2014-10-23T18:50:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27326 |
| They should be rolling out the fix immediately. It's way, way too slow. I understand the chip cards are coming out, but there is no excuse for this. | 2014-10-22T20:19:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/20/credit-card-system-fail/#comment-27285 |
| I agree completely. | 2014-10-22T20:18:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27284 |
| I agree completely! As I said before, we need to get out of the business of promoting war, too. | 2014-10-22T20:18:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27283 |
| I agree completely. Anything to bridge the gaps, make some deals, and get things done! | 2014-10-22T20:18:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/15/senate-shakedown/#comment-27282 |
| Yes, I had to use it. You're right, they are destroying their own nation. There won't be anything left to "win" in a short while. Their use of clusterbombs and a lot of artillery is disgusting. I want to take the Ukrainian government's side in this, but I don't see them serving their people - they appear to be just another set of oligarchs / mafia ready to torment the good people of Ukraine. | 2014-10-22T20:17:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27281 |
| That would also be wise, but I think we've made a lot of promises to people in the region. I'd hate to see Iraq suffer more, for example, and they will be ground zero for any war between Sunni and Shia (as they are now) because they are a divided, made-up nation. | 2014-10-22T20:15:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27280 |
| I think Jim nailed it - the cost of fraud was less than the cost of fixing it until this year. They never thought it would accelerate or become a PR nightmare, which it is both now. | 2014-10-22T20:14:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/20/credit-card-system-fail/#comment-27279 |
| That would be wise, yes. | 2014-10-22T20:14:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27278 |
| A great addition, thanks! | 2014-10-21T22:01:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/about/useful-quotations/#comment-27249 |
| Yes, a calculation like that seems to have been done. This was a largely fixable problem but nothing has been done about it despite Europe having a way of at least tamping down the level of fraud, the chip cards, for years. | 2014-10-20T17:13:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/20/credit-card-system-fail/#comment-27207 |
| We all could use a little something. Theft isn't the way to go. | 2014-10-20T17:13:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/20/credit-card-system-fail/#comment-27206 |
| I would think that we could convince them if we were reasonable about everything else. Also, a nuclear Pakistan and India weighs in on this. |
2014-10-18T21:30:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27133 |
| Things are up a bit on good news. Perhaps good news is finally just good news, and rising interest rates are priced into the market? Naw, not yet. But soon, and it will be nice to have good news be just good news. | 2014-10-17T17:08:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/15/senate-shakedown/#comment-27085 |
| May we all live in interesting times. Yeesh. | 2014-10-17T17:07:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/15/senate-shakedown/#comment-27084 |
| I didn't see that. They are getting rather dark. Glad it was cut! | 2014-10-15T20:45:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-27018 |
| It is going about as it should. October will be a down month, hard to say on November, December probably dead. January it all should start up again, I think. This is just a temporary correction that reverts us back to an overall no gain (inflation adjusted) since 2000. From there, it will build again. |
2014-10-15T17:26:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/10/up-is-down-until-its-just-up/#comment-27009 |
| Care to elaborate on that? I don't see this in consumer sentiment, but I do feel like people are at least more satisfied with what they have. | 2014-10-15T16:25:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/06/yellens-dashboard-update/#comment-27008 |
| I love it, it's my one true fandom. :-) It is a genuine institution now, which is very fun. | 2014-10-15T16:24:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-27007 |
| That does seem to be the real problem, yes. | 2014-10-15T16:24:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/08/paralyzed/#comment-27006 |
| thanks! | 2014-10-15T16:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/06/yellens-dashboard-update/#comment-27005 |
| thanks! | 2014-10-15T16:23:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/03/pop/#comment-27004 |
| That is what we all have to hope for. I see that happening in about 2 years at this rate, so we're pretty much on track for 2017. | 2014-10-15T16:23:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/10/up-is-down-until-its-just-up/#comment-27003 |
| That doesn't happen, no. :-) | 2014-10-15T16:22:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-27002 |
| The Democrats can filibuster as well as the Republicans, so I don't see anything changing no matter what. As long as no party has 60% and they are fixed on hyper-partisanship they can't do anything at all. The reason I am hopeful for independents is to get over the partisan problem. But that will take time no matter what. Still, it seems like the only possible way out, IMHO. |
2014-10-15T16:22:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/15/senate-shakedown/#comment-27001 |
| Yes, absolutely, there is much more to him than that. One scene in "Deep Breath" where he has two glasses of scotch poured is chilling and very, very new for the Doctor. This one has a maturity and simmering vengefulness. | 2014-10-13T15:07:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-26927 |
| It seems too complicated to people obsessed with power for its own sake. | 2014-10-10T18:03:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/08/paralyzed/#comment-26830 |
| General trends, is all. General trends. :-) | 2014-10-10T18:01:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/10/up-is-down-until-its-just-up/#comment-26829 |
| Are you accusing me of turning into a pundit? :-) Yes, I wanted to leave this in terms of long term trends largely because it's impossible to time the market. For me, that is. :-) But there are forces that are changing, and that means the market has to change. It almost certainly has to go down before it goes up, but there are reasons to see both happening. I completely agree that higher rates are not a big problem for the average person. Yes, loans will cost more - but the higher rate of return will mean that banks with capital will feel a lot better about making loans, which is the real problem for a lot of people (even Ben Bernanke!). So I really don't see any of this as bad news, just ... news, mainly. The stock market is not the economy. It's gotten a little ahead and could use a pull-back - and could stand to be a bit more selective about what rises and what doesn't. But that doesn't mean the sky is falling. |
2014-10-05T20:24:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/03/pop/#comment-26703 |
| Nope. One day does not a trend make. Yes, the market is up a little over the week, but the Fed has not actually weighed in yet. This little bit caused a lot of downside when it was announced - wait until it is implemented. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102050278#. |
2014-10-03T19:35:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/03/pop/#comment-26659 |
| Everything is in flux right now - I haven't been sure what to write about. Modi definitely was well received, and I'm thinking about what to say about him. The thing is that it's hard to get excited about a nation that has proven almost impossible to govern. As for the rest of the world, I do think that large hunks of nations are not screwing around anymore. That means the Arab states mostly, as ISIL seems to have really spooked them - I doubt they will play games with militant extremists like they have in the past. I'm thinking about writing on this for Friday. As for Europe, Russia has them scared poopless right now. They have their own mess to worry about, too. It's not good for them. |
2014-10-01T21:32:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/29/the-secret-goldman-tapes/#comment-26607 |
| I can't comment on why the Santander transaction in particular is being focused on. It does not appear to be the worst thing I've seen on the surface. It does appear that Goldman, in general, has cleaned up its act since 2008 as noted before. However, the story of the Fed being too close to the banks remains. It's ugly. And I really think that if they can't think "out of the box" they will be incredibly far behind and remain there. |
2014-10-01T21:29:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/29/the-secret-goldman-tapes/#comment-26606 |
| True, the CIA is all over the place. What we see, however, are "blowback" incidents like al Qaeda, Iran, etc. Do they do as much good for us as they do harm? I think the short answer is that no, when something gets big it's totally out of their purvey. So the stuff we hear about is all bad by definition. I can't think of anything that we've intervened in that went well over the long haul. Did the CIA create ISIL? No, we can't say that. Did they look the other way when Saudi Arabia created ISIL? To some extent, yes. But there's also evidence that Syria left ISIL unengaged for a while as a counter to the democratic forces, knowing people would prefer al Assad to ISIL. I doubt we had a big role in ISIL's creation, but we could have done a lot more to stop them - and a lot of other harm. So how culpable are we? Not as much as the conspiracy suggests, no. That's going too far, IMHO. |
2014-10-01T21:24:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/24/hindsight-conspiracies/#comment-26605 |
| A small number are, such as the Fabulous Fab. But this incident is not as much about Goldman as it is how the Fed regulates them. I think a better question is, "Why aren't people getting fired?" | 2014-10-01T21:21:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/29/the-secret-goldman-tapes/#comment-26604 |
| That is apparently true: http://about.usps.com/news/events-calendar/2014-federal-holidays.htm I think there are also some Columbus Day sales, and there's a good chance some county workers, etc get off for it. |
2014-10-01T21:20:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/01/thanksgiving-and-dia-de-la-raza/#comment-26603 |
| First of all, I agree totally that feminism is a feature of the developed world - and it has a lot further to go throughout the developing world. Where I'll argue with you is on the "War on Women", though it is a damned shame that it's come down to that kind of political pandering. But it works, and it does so for a very good reason - women are made very uncomfortable by a lot of the Republican agenda and especially the rhetoric that in 2012 used the word "rape" far too often. Here's something for you as a Republican that I hope you consider - there is a very natural base for you among women. Entrepreneurs. Note that according to this Harvard Business Review article women are more likely than men to be entrepreneurs. That's probably because the structure of corporate America is not suited to them for very reasons, including some sense of open hostility. They are your natural female base - and I would love to see you work to support them vigorously. It would only make sense. | 2014-09-26T21:35:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/26/heforshe/#comment-26485 |
| Yes, I think it does. What's left to change is more than laws, it's people's attitudes. | 2014-09-26T19:17:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/26/heforshe/#comment-26481 |
| Thanks! | 2014-09-26T19:16:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/26/heforshe/#comment-26480 |
| 193 of 'em, apparently. :-) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations | 2014-09-24T19:35:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/22/what-is-a-nation/#comment-26361 |
| I think you can usually tell that someone is crazy, but sometimes more sane people pick up a story and make it sound far more reasonable. That's about the time that a twisted out of context tidbit is given something like a new context that sounds far more reasonable and it takes off from there. I don't think any of these particular conspiracies will make it to the mainstream, but I worry about the Ukraine one in particular. Big hunks of it have been disproven many times, but it still keeps resurfacing. |
2014-09-24T19:34:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/24/hindsight-conspiracies/#comment-26360 |
| If you think that the US is capable of controlling everything in the world at all times you are utterly crazy. | 2014-09-24T19:32:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/24/hindsight-conspiracies/#comment-26359 |
| :-) | 2014-09-22T18:41:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/17/writing-a-formal-e-mail/#comment-26202 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-09-22T18:41:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/17/writing-a-formal-e-mail/#comment-26201 |
| Good point. You can get away with just about anything inside of the borders of this mythical thing called a "nation". | 2014-09-22T18:41:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/22/what-is-a-nation/#comment-26200 |
| A good plan! | 2014-09-22T18:40:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/22/what-is-a-nation/#comment-26199 |
| And we can do that if we reduce the overhead per employee, among many other things limiting employment. | 2014-09-22T18:40:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/19/industrial-capacity-is-back/#comment-26198 |
| It is shameful that only 10% of our workers are in manufacturing. We need to make more of what we consume here in the US. Those jobs in China should be ours. | 2014-09-22T18:32:08+00:00 | djsamuelson23 | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/19/industrial-capacity-is-back/#comment-26197 |
| We need the states to have more power. There is way too much concentrated in Washington. Now that they have utterly failed the states have to step up and do what Washington can't. | 2014-09-22T18:30:48+00:00 | djsamuelson23 | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/22/what-is-a-nation/#comment-26196 |
| About a third of all workers. It's been going steadily down since, leveling off in 2006-2008 at just over 10%. | 2014-09-22T00:16:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/19/industrial-capacity-is-back/#comment-26157 |
| Sounds great! And that experience seems to have been met by a lot of people. | 2014-09-17T19:30:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/15/no-longer-driven-by-oil/#comment-26038 |
| Thanks! | 2014-09-17T19:29:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/17/writing-a-formal-e-mail/#comment-26037 |
| Actually, it follows my prescription rather well. The "Why" and "Who" are stated up front. Then comes the passion. Lastly, it has the action - we call upon America. (I think it could be separated into paragraphs a bit better. :-) ) |
2014-09-17T19:29:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/17/writing-a-formal-e-mail/#comment-26036 |
| Some people do think that way. We can't allow that to dominate, period. | 2014-09-16T16:44:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/12/global-policeman-again/#comment-25978 |
| I think we have a good coalition, and I am all in favor of doing our part to prevent genocide against any small group of people anywhere. This event seems to show both why we need a strong military and the limits of it at the same time. It's a good model, IMHO. And we certainly can do a lot with a lot less money - probably about half what we spend now. |
2014-09-16T16:44:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/12/global-policeman-again/#comment-25977 |
| Having our own sources of oil make it much easier for us to only do the right things. I hope we can make that transition. | 2014-09-16T16:42:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/15/no-longer-driven-by-oil/#comment-25976 |
| Yes, it's about where it was in 1980. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/ | 2014-09-16T16:00:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/15/no-longer-driven-by-oil/#comment-25971 |
| There is no doubt that sending everyone a check would help things far more than what is happening now. But that would require cooperation from governments. | 2014-09-09T21:36:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/08/bizarro-world-finance/#comment-25772 |
| Yes. The pat answer is "lifelong learning", but there has to be more to it than that. | 2014-09-05T20:00:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/03/skills-gap/#comment-25673 |
| That seems to be the consensus that is developing. Key areas of rapidly evolving technology will always have a skills gap, and the more we are a high tech economy the bigger that problem is. How do people learn new skills? And how are they certified as having them? | 2014-09-05T19:59:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/03/skills-gap/#comment-25672 |
| I agree. But I put a lot of fault on the flexible work force where people change jobs so often. It doesn't make for stable development of skills in the labor force. I'm not against a flexible labor force, especially if we can get to a place where there is upward pressure on wages (which I hope to see when the Baby Boomers retire). But the old model broke and nothing has replaced it. We have a lot of thinking to do. And I agree that the skills gap is real, at least in part. | 2014-09-05T19:58:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/03/skills-gap/#comment-25671 |
| Thanks! | 2014-09-05T19:56:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/03/skills-gap/#comment-25670 |
| I am working on a model that describes the cost/benefit analysis. But when it's done as a private company, it's hard to do. Suffice it to say that if all or most of it is on someone else's dime (the government of Japan, not the US?) I'm all for it. | 2014-09-05T19:54:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/05/maglev-trains-in-our-future/#comment-25669 |
| Yes! Two things changed. 1) The technology has been proven, and 2) Someone appears ready to pony up the big bucks to make it happen. And the price of oil has hit a stable, higher price. Three things. The point is that retail as we know it is changing, and people are closer to manufacturing than ever before. Maybe you don't want a custom tailored shirt direct in the mail, but it is possible today in something like real time for not a ton of money. The same goes for much bigger things. I think the time is right for the next phase of revolution in how we consume, and the missing link to me seems to be retail - and the inventory they have to carry. Reduce that to near zero and you have both the logical conclusion of WalMart's amazing logistics system and its ultimate death. It's one Hell of a ride, better even than a really fast train. |
2014-09-05T19:53:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/05/maglev-trains-in-our-future/#comment-25668 |
| The accumulated debt since 1980 is just a bit less than the accumulated military spending, for example. | 2014-08-26T17:12:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/18/the-opportunity-cost/#comment-25298 |
| Let's hope they are least have a good end to their suffering. | 2014-08-26T17:11:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/18/the-opportunity-cost/#comment-25297 |
| Please tell us more about that. I'd like to know more about what you think should be in a basic curriculum. | 2014-08-26T17:10:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/20/six-things-schools-should-teach/#comment-25296 |
| Yes, that is the problem. There are simply other things to spend money on, and it's tight right now. | 2014-08-26T17:10:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/18/the-opportunity-cost/#comment-25295 |
| How did this fall to the Mayors alone to approve? I don't understand this one bit. | 2014-08-26T17:09:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/22/when-great-force-becomes-easy/#comment-25294 |
| I can't, either. It was very strange at best. | 2014-08-26T17:08:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/22/when-great-force-becomes-easy/#comment-25293 |
| The Fed is very much on the side of labor here. I know that sounds strange, but it is very true. Everything they are doing is for more employment right now. | 2014-08-26T17:08:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/25/labor-in-a-jackson-hole/#comment-25292 |
| Yes, that is the point. And we do have that horrific video of them executing a man when there must, simplly must be, other ways of dealing with it. | 2014-08-26T17:07:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/22/when-great-force-becomes-easy/#comment-25291 |
| Yes, that is basically it in many cases, but there are specific skills that people should at least be familiar with to succeed in life. There are different levels, but the introductory courses would help kids to know what it means to be an entrepreneur, for example, and decide if they want to do that in life. | 2014-08-26T17:04:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/20/six-things-schools-should-teach/#comment-25290 |
| It isn't what they were designed to do, but they are now claiming it is part of their "dual mandate" to keep the economy moving. I honestly don't know that they can do more. One thing I forgot to mention again is that the current stimulus is still running very hot, about 2% less than it should be by the best calculations. |
2014-08-26T17:03:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/25/labor-in-a-jackson-hole/#comment-25289 |
| I will look and get back to you, good idea. | 2014-08-15T20:57:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/08/stocks-lower-because-they-just-are-dammit/#comment-24913 |
| That is what we all hope, yes. | 2014-08-15T20:56:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/08/stocks-lower-because-they-just-are-dammit/#comment-24912 |
| I'm never wiling to go that far, you know. | 2014-08-15T20:56:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/08/stocks-lower-because-they-just-are-dammit/#comment-24911 |
| Amen! It's best to not think about it too much, IMHO. | 2014-08-15T20:55:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/08/stocks-lower-because-they-just-are-dammit/#comment-24910 |
| Thanks. It is terrible to see, but I have to tell you I've been there myself. | 2014-08-15T20:55:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/11/surviving-thriving/#comment-24909 |
| Thanks! | 2014-08-15T20:54:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/13/a-jolt-of-confidence/#comment-24908 |
| There is a lot of "churn" going on, where people are leaving jobs for better ones. It is something that has to happen as the economy changes and people see opportunity. It really points to an overall improvement even more than the number of actual jobs gained each month, which has gone up to around 220k. | 2014-08-15T20:52:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/13/a-jolt-of-confidence/#comment-24907 |
| Yes, in 1957! | 2014-08-15T20:51:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/13/a-jolt-of-confidence/#comment-24906 |
| So you think I was slow to call it, then? :-) | 2014-08-15T20:50:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/15/one-last-bubble/#comment-24905 |
| I think you are right on the anecdote, and yes, that has been happening around me as well. It is a sure sign of a bubble, isn't it? | 2014-08-15T20:50:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/15/one-last-bubble/#comment-24904 |
| The market got out of hand. A year ago the rise seemed reasonable, but it's way ahead of itself. And then this bubble of junk was inflated. Hey, I'll call it as I see it! :-) | 2014-08-15T20:49:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/15/one-last-bubble/#comment-24903 |
| The TWX is holding very even with the USD. They run very close to each other, meaning that it would make a good substitute for the USD in the short term. | 2014-08-07T14:42:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/30/world-currency/#comment-24761 |
| See above. :-) GDP is output, and GO is the total activity needed to make that output. | 2014-08-07T14:39:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/01/new-measures-for-new-times/#comment-24760 |
| GDP is a measure of finished goods, which is to say the net output of the economy. GO is a measure of the total activity it takes to make those goods. It is a big deal, and the gap between them is larger than I was led to believe when this was a theoretical discussion. I've always known that GDP wasn't a good measure to compare for jobs, which is why I haven't really tried to link the two - other than repeating a correlation between GDP growth and job growth that someone else came up with (and appears to not work well lately - now I know why!). Yes, there is a lot more to say here. The productivity figure I threw in at the end is worth a lot more thought. It shows that it dipped substantially before and during the big job loss, which is to say there was a reason companies were shedding workers. There's a lot of meat in that which is hard to digest all at once. I'm thinking about it. |
2014-08-07T14:37:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/01/new-measures-for-new-times/#comment-24759 |
| I can't think of anything, either. But to Europe this is a bigger deal, especially Germany. There is a market for German stuff over there that they have been developing. I say let the EU lead on this as they are the ones that have to deal with all the consequences of both action and inaction. | 2014-08-07T14:30:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/04/a-new-cold-war/#comment-24758 |
| What do they really make? Most of their exports are raw materials, the mark of a real third-word oligarchy (oops, sorry Canada!). | 2014-08-07T14:29:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/04/a-new-cold-war/#comment-24757 |
| That is a good way of looking at it, IMHO. It's a show as much as it is just a game. | 2014-08-07T14:28:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/06/the-small-stories-inside/#comment-24756 |
| While I have a clear bias towards Ukraine, I can't go quite that far. I hope that the Ukrainian army are the heroes in this, and I do hope that the people of Ukraine find a way to live together in peace and a real sense of justice. I hope that the gangsters that torment them are somehow put down and subjected to the rule of law. Is that what is happening now? We won't know for some time. Petro Poroshenko seems like a good guy, but it's so hard to tell just how dirty someone is from this far away. | 2014-08-07T14:27:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/06/the-small-stories-inside/#comment-24755 |
| Thank you. Gaza is about revenge, at least in terms of the fighters who are doing the actual killing. Revenge and a sense of necessity for survival. But to the architects of the war it is more of a cold game. The leaders are not serving the people, but instead their own desires and ambitions. That is true all around in this one. | 2014-08-07T14:25:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/06/the-small-stories-inside/#comment-24754 |
| I think I'll take that up. Thanks! | 2014-08-04T19:59:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/04/a-new-cold-war/#comment-24645 |
| It would probably make imports more expensive, yes, but that would help our manufacturing. | 2014-07-30T14:23:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/30/world-currency/#comment-24481 |
| It's a miss, and a pretty big one. I was calling higher than +225k, and we didn't get that. It is in the range I gave, yes, and that is a good thing. But it's still a miss. | 2014-07-30T14:23:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/28/making-predictions/#comment-24480 |
| I do, too. :-) | 2014-07-23T01:19:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24332 |
| Or the US, at least in the past. I don't think we're arming a small group like the Contras right now, but I could be wrong. But yes, the world is full of these proxy wars and they always go about the same way. The small group of wackos (I deliberately avoided the term "redneck" this time) gains inflated power when someone gives them guns - or more advanced weapons. And there is always, I do mean always, some blowback or horrific incident that shows how dangerous this is. Iran hasn't gotten their blowback yet, but I suspect that they will. Arming a small group of wackos for the purpose of creating mayhem is a terrible way to conduct policy, but it's very common. And the mayhem eventually affects everyone. | 2014-07-23T01:18:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/23/wackos-with-guns/#comment-24331 |
| An excellent question that I don't have a good answer to. What I can say is that the new government of Poroshenko appears to be proceeding cautiously as they move against the rebels. I don't know if it's because he doesn't want to cause a lot of destruction (inflating a civil war) or because he fears Russia. But they have had limited engagements, even though so far it has consistently gone their way. I did anticipate at least a statement on their part as to why they didn't just move in and secure the site, but so far there has been nothing that I have seen. If anyone has more to add, please do. |
2014-07-23T01:15:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/23/wackos-with-guns/#comment-24330 |
| Some pigs are men. | 2014-07-23T00:14:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24326 |
| We do need a show like that again. Men need good examples, IMHO. | 2014-07-22T16:21:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24321 |
| Thanks! | 2014-07-22T16:21:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24320 |
| Thanks! | 2014-07-22T16:20:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24319 |
| It will cost them bigtime, no doubt. | 2014-07-19T21:55:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24270 |
| I don't see the US or Obama as having any significant role in this, period. We apparently have little to no influence over Ukraine, given how the people responsible for the credit card theft from Target and others have been traced to Odessa and have suffered no consequences at all. If we were, as many conspiracy theorists report, pushing the government change for our own interests it would seem that this would be one of the first things our puppet would take care of. Nothing has been done. Given that the US has essentially no role in this, it's all on the EU. And the EU is not exactly hostile to Russia - more like codependent. It will give in to Putin until it can't give anymore. My point is that at that point Putin's hand will be laid bare, and the tattered relations with the EU will cost the oligarchs that really run Russia a LOT of money (The MICEX is down considerably this month and this year). So how will Putin lose? Don't look to the military, that's only a sideshow. The EU plays for money, and money alone. And they will beat the crap out of Russia. |
2014-07-19T21:54:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24269 |
| A very good point. | 2014-07-18T21:56:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/14/its-in-the-um-timing/#comment-24248 |
| I think that is likely - which is why I referred to the 30 Years' War, which collapsed into a cynical chaos before it did burn out. That phase may be coming shortly, or we may be in it. This may be burning out because there is nothing to gain while the people and the land are exhausted. | 2014-07-18T21:54:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24247 |
| The at-Takwir, from the Q'uran. The overthrowing. All this shall pass. | 2014-07-18T21:51:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24246 |
| I think that Russia has to be the net loser in all of this. Putin appears to be losing more and more through his hard stand against Ukraine's likely accession to the EU. A more reasonable stand might be to attempt to dominate the EU itself, which would be interesting. | 2014-07-18T21:43:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24245 |
| That is a very good point - that this is all part of a century-long conflict between Russia and Germany that is in a particularly cool but suspicious phase right now. That did come up in part through the Russian propaganda on Ukraine as they alleged that those who overthrew Yanukovych were all Nazis (and there are a lot of actual Nazis in Ukraine today, sadly). But yes, primarily this is an attempt to hold USSR together, which is to say hold the old Tsarist Empire together. We had to expect Putin to resist, so resorting to a proxy war is actually a hopeful sign that he's not going to do anything stupid, given the stakes. |
2014-07-18T21:39:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24244 |
| Simply horrible. We have certainly created a lot of mayhem around the world, so I'm not letting the US off the hook by any means (I opened the way I did because, for some reason, people seem to think that going after Putin's aggression is to take an exclusively pro-US position). I can imagine a process with Iran where we finally apologize for this, all we did with the Shah, and for arming Iraq. It's long past time to admit our failures. A truly strong nation can do that - it's a weak one that cannot. | 2014-07-18T21:36:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24243 |
| An entire empire devoted to putting your feet up. No wonder they were so popular. No wonder they ultimately failed. | 2014-07-18T01:51:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24222 |
| Exactly, there are no good solutions. So what might work best? The fact that this old idea is back on the table is a sign of desperation - but it's also a sign that people are willing to consider anything to bring peace. It's both good and bad. | 2014-07-17T14:53:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24204 |
| I don't want to accuse anyone of anything. I'm not a fan of Israel, but I can't imagine sitting by while Jerusalem is shelled by mortars. The way the land has been partitioned is horrible, but it's hard to undo that at this point - so where do we go from here? How is peace created? That's all I really care about. | 2014-07-17T14:52:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24203 |
| Fixed, sorry about that. | 2014-07-17T14:48:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24202 |
| It seems to be that way lately. Even dramas have a lot of comic relief built in them, which isn't that different from Shakespeare, to be honest, but it's definitely a trend. | 2014-07-14T16:18:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/14/its-in-the-um-timing/#comment-24058 |
| Yes, exactly. A lot of what makes this a "Managed" Depression is that the Fed and Treasury Department have been careful to not make the mistakes made in the last one. But they are, apparently, making different mistakes in the process. That the poor see inflation first is both surprising and not to me. Most of the inflation we've see has been asset inflation, which is to say stocks. The rich have gotten richer. I honestly expected luxury items to be the first to inflate for that reason. Apparently, it doesn't work that way. That's a bit of a problem for me, and I want to figure it out before I say more. |
2014-07-14T16:14:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/11/too-many-dollars-too-few-dollars/#comment-24057 |
| This both does and does not change my support for Fed policies. They are doing everything they can, but no one thinks they are the right body to be doing this. It would make much, much more sense for the Federal Government to do this (and perhaps have the Fed simply buy the T-Bills needed to finance it to keep rates low). But this is a serious problem that needs to be thought through, yes. We cannot have net negative rates without encouraging more debt, which is a bad thing overall. There is much more to say about this - next time, I'll hit it all. It's hard to organize. |
2014-07-14T16:11:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/11/too-many-dollars-too-few-dollars/#comment-24056 |
| There is a lot more to say about this, but I think it boils down to something easily understood. Poor people buy only necessities, the things everyone does. These are limited commodities that are produced at the lowest possible cost, meaning that any price shock has to be passed on - there is no room for the producer to absorb it. And as physical, real items like food and energy (oil) they necessarily inflate quickly because they are more of a "gold standard" than the money itself. I hope that helps. I am looking for the whole basket to find out what goes into it. |
2014-07-14T16:09:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/11/too-many-dollars-too-few-dollars/#comment-24055 |
| Thanks! | 2014-07-09T19:35:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/04/to-fly-the-flag/#comment-23973 |
| Thanks! | 2014-07-09T19:35:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/04/to-fly-the-flag/#comment-23972 |
| That seems to be what this is about, yes. | 2014-07-09T19:34:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23971 |
| Understandable, for sure. | 2014-07-09T18:22:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/07/suspending-disbelief/#comment-23968 |
| I believe they now have more Lobby than Hobby in 'em. | 2014-07-09T18:22:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/07/suspending-disbelief/#comment-23967 |
| I will work on that and get back to you. No promises as to when. :-) | 2014-07-09T18:21:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23966 |
| An excellent point. Yellen didn't specify anything like that, although we know that the Fed in general is looking for more inflation than we have. So for her purposes, I think it's good as devised - but for our purposes it should be the above chart divided by CPI. Let me work on that. | 2014-07-09T18:21:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23965 |
| No, it' isn't half full yet. But these are the worst of the lingering signs of badness, so if anything this is a pessimist's gauge. And even this is improving (if slowly). | 2014-07-09T18:19:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23964 |
| Well, of these two things you're tired of, I can say two different things. On the Managed Depression, these charts show once again what I've been saying all along - that the downturn started in 2001, had a small to nil recovery 2004-2007, and then turned down again before a stronger recovery 2012-today. It's very obvious that this is one long event, and by the length alone you have to call it a "Depression". Don't like the handle "Managed"? Coin your own! On the Year Everything Changes, if you don't believe me then just wait and see. If you'd like to place a bet, I'm always game. But it's also very clear based on the progress that we've made that we need another 8-10 quarters at this rate to say things have turned around, and I'm willing to say that we'll have a bit of a pause before we get there. That puts us squarely into 2017. We are still very much on track to hit it spot on, one year after my prediction. Don't like it? Don't read Barataria. |
2014-07-09T18:19:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23963 |
| Judging by the looks of him, that's coming up pretty soon! :-) | 2014-07-09T18:14:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23962 |
| I am starting to think that this is an example of the old adage "Good cases make bad law." The idea that corporations have some of the same rights as people is very old. They have long been able to sue to enforce contracts, et cetera. What this court created in Citizen's United was the idea that Constitutional rights extend to corporations, which I considered dangerous. This ruling extends that, as shown in Alito's comments in the majority opinion. Corporations now have a right to religious expression that has not been allowed before. I will agree that this ruling could have come down the same way without that. I have sympathy for Hobby Lobby and more specifically Conestoga Cabinets, which is a Mennonite company (I consider my sense of Christianity to be more closely aligned with my Mennonite ancestry and its traditions in my family than any other faith). Again, I think the most important issue here is the strange system where companies provide health care - and are now compelled to provide it. But the ruling was much more broad and, to my mind, did not balance equal protection concerns in any substantial way. Does equal protection apply to corporations as it does to government and its laws? Certainly, something like it has been set as precedent in any number of employment or services cases - corporations are public entities and not entirely private. I would have like to have had much more elaboration of that consideration, much as the competing rights and obligations were explicitly spelled out in Roe v Wade. Instead, we have a ruling that is very broad and quite absolute. Closely held corporations have a Constitutional right to religious liberty. I think this is very dangerous and opens the door to a wide variety of applications. If this applies only to health care, the rational for that should have been explained. Since that is missing, we have to assume that, like all fundamental rights, this must be applied broadly. I ask you - what if a company wants to enforce Sharia Law in its operation? I gave a very specific example, but let's take that broadly. The implications are vast and very frightening. In short, the role of a corporation as a public entity has been changed, and apparently dramatically. I don't think they had to go there to make this ruling, but they did. It's huge, not well supported by precedent, and I think very, very dangerous. | 2014-07-03T19:24:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23851 |
| Back in the 1970s and 1980s, it was common for conservatives to decry an "activist court" that "legislated from the bench". This was essentially coded language for their displeasure over the central argument in Roe v Wade - that there is a right to privacy that needs to be balanced in the case of abortion with the state's interest in protecting life. The right to privacy has deep roots in American culture and is derived from the 4th Amendment. It has a long legal tradition dating back to 1922. Polls have shown that most Americans believe there is, indeed, a "right to privacy". This activist court has created the concept of "corporate personhood" more or less from whole cloth that they wove themselves. There is some precedent for it in a limited legal sense, but it was never implied by any previous decisions that constitutional rights applied. There is no mention of corporations or their rights in the Constitution at all. And, indeed, a vast majority of all Americans, of all parties, agree that corporations are not people. This decision is the result of an extreme, radical activist court that is legislating in ways that the Burger court would ever have dared. It is dangerous and needs to be overturned. If that can be done with a constitutional amendment, then let's do that immediately. If we have to change over Congress first then let's get going But this is purest bullshit and it should not be allowed to stand. |
2014-07-02T22:31:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23825 |
| I'll reply in small pieces. It is ridiculous that companies are on the hook for health care for the reasons I stated - it is the worst of both worlds. It does not create a free market, with its benefits, nor does it create universal coverage. It is a hybrid system that guarantees the greatest expense possible with inadequate results. No other nation in the world has a system for this - and ours is by far the most expensive and least productive. Go ahead, defend this system. I'd love to hear someone try because I have tried to come up with one good reason why this is the way it should be done. I can't. |
2014-07-02T22:22:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23824 |
| I do hope that the need for single payer is what comes out of this. It could be a wonderful decision after all, no matter how bizarre its legal basis. But yes, corporations have more rights than women, I can't see any other way to read this. |
2014-07-02T22:19:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23823 |
| Good idea. That's the best way to get this court's attention. | 2014-07-02T22:17:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23822 |
| As I was writing this, Eric Cantor was losing his primary for many of the same reasons noted here. His Tea Party challenger has very different solutions than what I do, but won at least in part by going after Cantor as a "Crony capitalist who favors big business over main street". So, that happened. Let's see where it goes. |
2014-06-11T01:43:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/11/working-rich/#comment-23193 |
| To answer your question at the end, "Yes, of course, that is far, far the preference." So how do we make that happen? | 2014-06-11T00:48:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/11/working-rich/#comment-23192 |
| I think I may have to, this was a big miss. All the signs were present for another big gain, but we're still in the same pattern we've been in for 3 years - up about 190k jobs every month. It should start accelerating here if we're going to get where we need to be by the end of the year. | 2014-06-04T16:54:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-23088 |
| Apparently. :-) | 2014-06-04T16:50:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-23086 |
| Yes, the 2022 Olympics have only two viable bidders left, Beijing and Almaty, Kazakhstan. Both are considered bad choices. The whole sports thing has gotten way, way out of hand. It will have to come down a notch or several. |
2014-06-04T16:50:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/04/brazil-comes-of-age/#comment-23085 |
| That is about where it is now - we know nothing too unreasonable will happen. From there, who knows? It seems like it has to get better eventually. | 2014-06-03T14:17:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-23063 |
| We will find out shortly on the jobs report. Ukraine may take a lot longer, probably not until the end of the summer for sure. | 2014-06-03T14:16:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-23062 |
| Thanks, let's keep trying to get through this. | 2014-06-03T14:10:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/30/yes-all-women/#comment-23061 |
| Martha, I would like to think that we don't have to demonize all men, but I can see why it happens. Not being in the position of being a potential victim I honestly don't know what to say. I hope your view can win, however. For my part, all I can do is to make as much space for that as possible. | 2014-06-03T14:10:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/30/yes-all-women/#comment-23060 |
| Describing the perpetrators is always a culturally loaded problem. It is strange what they tend to emphasize. | 2014-06-03T14:08:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/30/yes-all-women/#comment-23059 |
| Thank you | 2014-06-03T14:07:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/30/yes-all-women/#comment-23058 |
| Very good. Some of this is not about cold numbers, but instead about how people feel. We won't change things for the better until we reach that. | 2014-05-29T21:13:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/28/changing-attitudes-about-work/#comment-22972 |
| Yes, we have to use this time of great change to actively build a system that works for everyone. That system is horribly broken, and the social agreements it was built on seem like a fairy tale now. So let's do something about it. | 2014-05-29T21:12:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/28/changing-attitudes-about-work/#comment-22971 |
| There you go! :-) | 2014-05-28T23:48:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/28/changing-attitudes-about-work/#comment-22955 |
| This is where households earn their money, so there are no costs associated with it. It used to be half from wages and half from investments, and now the money earned is less than half from wages. Make sense now? | 2014-05-28T23:48:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/28/changing-attitudes-about-work/#comment-22954 |
| Thanks. I guess my starting point is that we were a nation with 60% or less of the potential labor force working, and overall it was something like a Baroque Era of great wealth. For those who could participate in the standard arrangement happily the economic times were good. It wasn't a flexible system at all, depending on large coherent family units that all got along and weren't abusive, but it did work in a larger economic sense. The secret of that system was that it kept people out of work, meaning that those who worked could organize and demand higher wages. So, assuming that only so many people can work, how do we equitably distribute the income? And, for that matter, how do we get people do do the work that isn't usually paid - such as raising the kids, keeping the community operating, taking care of the sick or old, et cetera? Not only do I not know, I can't answer that by myself - it has to come from some broader social agreement that everyone buys into. What I can tell you is that the old agreement was based on a good day's pay for a good day's work. That's clearly broken, and it's broken in large part because there's only so much paid work to go around. If we're going to rebuild that, we have a lot to work out as a people. |
2014-05-24T16:41:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/23/enough-work-to-go-around/#comment-22865 |
| There really is a long list of "the hottest thang" turning bad, isn't there? You could almost add Yahoo. to the list, IMHO. It might be cool to have the top sites by traffic for each year since 1995. I'll see if I can get that. | 2014-05-23T22:21:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22845 |
| I haven't heard of dogpile in years! It's still around. :-) | 2014-05-23T22:20:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22844 |
| There are some definite signs that younger people aren't entering the workforce as quickly as in past generations - and most are staying in school longer. That was discussed in the Philadelphia Fed report on workforce participation, but apparently it's very much debatable. The effect you describe would be a wash, since the older worker remains in the workforce at the expense of the younger. Both are definite trends, and I am willing to reconsider my stand if there is a good study showing that the young who are staying in school longer are doing so for economic reasons alone - ie, they would rather be working. No one has really studied this carefully before, so methodology is always questionable. I guess I have to concede that much. It's worth pointing out that the unemployment rate for 20-24 year olds is dropping faster than the overall unemployment rate (U3) FINALLY, meaning that there are more jobs for young people. This is partly due to the retirement wave, but some of it is due to (slowly) improving economic conditions. Perhaps the retirement wave credited with the drop in workforce participation from 2012-2014 should be modified once we see if the kids still in school now start to enter the workforce in larger numbers later this year. I sure hope they can all find jobs if all they are doing is ducking into school to wait out the bad times. |
2014-05-20T02:50:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/19/the-big-story/#comment-22755 |
| Good piece. I don't doubt this for a second, because credit is very hard to come by right now. My hunch is that it won't come back until we hit something like "full employment", however that is defined. Like so much of this it's all chicken and egg - the economy won't improve until there are jobs and easy credit, but we won't have those until the economy improves. Look at Europe, though! Ug. |
2014-05-19T13:14:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/19/the-big-story/#comment-22748 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-05-17T20:48:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/23/pragmatism/#comment-22715 |
| It is "too clever by half" in a longer form like this, but most advertising is done in the second person. If you look for it you can see it. I think it's worth practicing in long form if you are going to do the short form well. | 2014-05-16T21:09:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/14/2nd-person/#comment-22697 |
| It goes in waves. | 2014-05-16T21:07:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/14/2nd-person/#comment-22696 |
| It will be many years before we get there, but I think we need that as a goal. It will take conservation, development of alternatives, and yes, some drilling. I'm game for it. | 2014-05-16T21:07:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/16/oil-patchwork/#comment-22695 |
| The more I think about it, the more I realize that this is the most important thing we can do to improve the health of the planet. If we have to confront our own mess I am sure something will be done about it. | 2014-05-16T21:05:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/16/oil-patchwork/#comment-22694 |
| The plan has to involve not only use of domestic energy but a replacement for fossil fuels. I think I made that very clear. The 4% reduction in the last 5 years, despite a growing population, is only a start. | 2014-05-16T21:04:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/16/oil-patchwork/#comment-22693 |
| A succinct and unfortunately accurate analysis, I think. | 2014-05-16T21:03:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/16/oil-patchwork/#comment-22692 |
| Yes, indeed. | 2014-05-12T13:39:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/12/an-anxious-spring/#comment-22604 |
| Great additions to the conversation, thank you. Ukraine does benefit greatly from an arrangement with the EU. | 2014-05-10T21:21:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22570 |
| It was a great game last night! (that was the 4th of the series, the Wild won 4-2) | 2014-05-10T19:17:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/02/the-check-is-against-the-boards/#comment-22564 |
| At its worst, yes, it is. It can be more and has been. | 2014-05-10T19:17:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22563 |
| Good point - if we do conduct a war on crime we have to be sure it isn't hijacked by the usual suspects. My gut tels me that while the NSA, et al, don't actually plan events that lead to their gaining more power they are always prepared to expand their power at any opportunity. Kind of a Reichstag Fire theory. | 2014-05-10T19:16:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22562 |
| This I can agree with completely. You are looking at the genesis of this problem, which clearly is at least as much about the establishment of the rule of law as it is free trade. The problem was that the EU didn't pony up $15B when that was the cost of Ukrainian friendship, but Russia did. Now, the tab is $17-32, depending on how you count. But this is all about the politics of criminal gangs and/or how to defeat them. It's more than "corruption" as we typically understand it in the developed world - this is a systemic and deep problem. And the EU utterly failed in every way. I have also been looking for anything that describes the US role prior to November. If you come up with anything, please share. I don't think we had anything of significance going on (despite what Russian and/or leftist propaganda constantly claims) but I could be wrong. I simply have yet to see evidence that we played any significant role. But the EU definitely had no idea what they were getting into, that is clear. |
2014-05-10T05:26:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22547 |
| If it did come to that, what would stop the nukes from flying? Or the war from spreading to Belarus and so on? That's the problem with Ukraine - it's not at all an isolated problem. As much as there is a Westphalian obligation to preserve the sanctity of a "nation state", there is also a tremendous amount of peril in this one. Russians still call it "The Ukraine", not "Ukraine" - which is to say "The Border Region". | 2014-05-10T05:21:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22546 |
| I don't see it coming to that, ever. And I hope it doesn't. | 2014-05-10T05:18:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22545 |
| There are about 3B internet users, so 250M is about 8,3%. In the US, there are 268 internet users and 23M twitter users, a similar number. It's not a big market share by any measure. http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/#bycountry http://www.forbes.com/sites/victorlipman/2013/05/01/the-worlds-most-active-twitter-country-hint-its-citizens-cant-use-twitter/ |
2014-05-07T02:49:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22495 |
| Yes! :-) | 2014-05-07T02:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/30/the-moral-lowground/#comment-22493 |
| There are some fairly obvious things in there, like double-tapping to zoom. A good list of the patents involved in round 1 is here: http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/08/24/a-verdict-reached-jury-apple-v-samsung-case/ I don't see how most of those patents pass the test for not being obvious based on the state of the art. | 2014-05-07T02:35:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/30/the-moral-lowground/#comment-22492 |
| That would be a wise policy, yes. Just stay out of the news and pray everyone forgets about you. | 2014-05-07T02:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/30/the-moral-lowground/#comment-22491 |
| I get to make fun of Florida all I want. And Manic Depression explains reporting on financial news more than the news itself. So there. :-) | 2014-05-07T02:30:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/30/the-moral-lowground/#comment-22490 |
| Yes, my love for the team is inspired by pure homerism. Sue me. :-) | 2014-05-07T02:28:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/02/the-check-is-against-the-boards/#comment-22489 |
| I'm watching now. Not a great game, but I'm still a Wild fan no matter what. Go Wild! | 2014-05-07T02:28:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/02/the-check-is-against-the-boards/#comment-22488 |
| It's a really simple problem that can't be solved by the survey methods used. There are about 140M jobs in the US. You find out about how many there are in the month you're in now and subtract the last month to get a difference of about 200k - that's a difference of 0.14%. No survey is ever going to be that accurate with any decent confidence interval no matter what you do. Over a period of a year the difference is more like 1.7%, which is theoretically possible to uncover with a massive sample - which they have. So annually we can be sure it's right, quarterly maybe close, and monthly just forget it. The ADP method is mysterious, but they are counting actual increases in payroll - not a survey. Time has shown it's much smoother month by month. The BLS just doesn't have the data at their disposal to do this, so it's up to ADP to deliver it for us. They do, and it's good. |
2014-05-07T02:27:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/05/pick-a-number-any-number/#comment-22487 |
| I think we can have very good news without the headline unemployment falling. Remember, I think that U6 is more reliable, so if that falls without U3 falling we are gaining full-time work for those who want it and starting to absorb the "marginal workers". That is what I expect to be the strongest trend this summer, not a drop in U3 (the headline number). If the 1.8:1 ratio held we'd have a U6 of 11.3 instead of 12.3 - a big difference. I see it heading that way. If you want a solid prediction, I'll go as far as to say that we have job growth more on the order of 220k solid each month (2.6M per year, a 13% bump in the rate) and by the end of the year U3 around 6.0% and U6 around 10.8%. That's nearly 2% improvement in U6 over the year. How's that for Sunshine? :-) |
2014-05-07T02:21:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/05/pick-a-number-any-number/#comment-22486 |
| On second read, I'm pretty hard on Twitter here. But I do think something is going to have to change. They're losing money AND not growing, which is a serious problem. That they have just a shade more monthly users than Tumblr is not where they want to be. The hype has them positioned as one of the top social media sites, but Instagram is beating them in user time and Snapchat is close on their heels. They aren't dead, and they will not die - nothing really dies (except pets.com, but that was different). I frankly expect something to change first. We'll see how foolish I look in a year, so bookmark the post. :-) |
2014-05-07T02:09:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22483 |
| Thank you very much! No need for bravery, we're all pretty kind people. I have my own ways of killing the obnoxious ones with kindness and reason. :-) Welcome! | 2014-05-02T22:45:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-22419 |
| I simply wish we did it better, overall. It's a good thing, even a great thing, when done well. | 2014-04-29T16:47:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/28/satire/#comment-22366 |
| Interesting thought! It's not a law, I think, but it's an old ruling that went to the Supreme Court. But the argument that these very unfunny sites aren't satire and not protected would be very interesting. I'd have to dig out the Supreme Court's ruling and determine what they thought was protected and why. | 2014-04-28T20:38:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/28/satire/#comment-22348 |
| There are nazis there, yes, but I don't think they control things. But they are worth keeping an eye on. | 2014-04-27T01:46:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22323 |
| I hope there isn't more fighting, but it's escalating all the time. I do think there will have to be something more. I heard recently that Ukrainians are being "purged" from Crimea as the Russians take over. I agree that this is a legitimate revolution, but I constantly read Russian propaganda that the US left likes to repeat claiming that this was started by the US and/or Europe as part of a covert operation. It's nonsense, of course, but I'm sure we have our side and our people on the ground. The John Perkins crowd is pretty vocal, however. |
2014-04-27T01:35:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22322 |
| I should have read down in the comments more - you put it better than I did even before I did. :-) | 2014-04-25T21:07:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22303 |
| If Europe was in great shape, the rise in the value of the Euro wouldn't be a big deal. Same for a possible war on their East. But they have both of those problems, and I just think this is no time to be parsimonious. This is an historic moment, at least on the war front - though I have long shown that their stinginess to their member states is the main reason they have slow growth. | 2014-04-25T21:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22302 |
| Yes, Russia has nukes. I haven't seen that mentioned in any of the news stories, but we have to be treading a little lighter than we would for any other nation because of this. I agree that avoiding war is the most important thing. I also think that the US has a very limited role in any of this, and I really hope NATO doesn't get involved. |
2014-04-25T21:05:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22301 |
| Your criticism of the lack of details is warranted, however in an article it's important to focus on the topic at hand. There's only so much that can be said in 1000 words. Russia was in such dire straights right after the fall it was unreasonable to expect a fast leveling with the rest of the world. Whatever was to go down had to be a lengthy process. Perhaps they're in the best possible process for the long haul, but I doubt it. And I do agree that the Baltics, in particular, were desperate to run under NATO cover for fairly obvious reasons. I dunno, how do you build a nation more or less from scratch? I still think Malaysia is doing a pretty good job, although they are not exactly an open society - yet. As for the BRIC hype, I'm with you there. |
2014-04-23T21:17:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/23/pragmatism/#comment-22260 |
| I will think about this some more. I don't disagree that we need to move towards renewables, and I've written about that in the past. But - and this is the big one - I haven't found anyone who has written about a good path to getting us there without a lot of upheaval. Maybe we have to have a lot of turmoil, but I'd like to think this through. I guess I owe that much to you all after this post. Let me see what I can find. As for provincial power in Canada, I am starting to think they do have it right. I have long favored more state power in the US, and I think that nearly all states are pretty well run. Seeing how that works in a very similar nation is interesting. |
2014-04-23T20:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22258 |
| Yup. Very much so. $10k ($3 point something trillion divided by 300 million people) would have caused inflation, but what about $1k? ... Or, perhaps, $2.56k? (joke - oddly specific numbers are always suspicious ... :-) ) |
2014-04-23T16:22:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/18/the-underground-economy/#comment-22252 |
| I think I answered that above. :-) Yes, let's talk about that in the comments. I wasn't ready to think that through when I wrote this piece. There is a lot more on that topic and it is very complex. | 2014-04-23T16:20:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22251 |
| Something has to be left out of this unless you are writing a book. As for "more oil", I'm coming at this from energy independence as a first goal. I think that North American oil is the first step and probably the only one that is important for that. Beyond that, yes, we have to conserve and develop renewable sources - but that is going to take time. My vision of a grand compromise is to build up the pipeline infrastructure we need to move the new sources of oil (Athabasca tar and Baken). I think there should be some standard that insists that oil moved is "refinery ready" and roughly WIT grade for safety and cleanliness. For that, we have a deal more like the Alaska Pipeline that is owned by the government and charges a healthy rate for using it. We invest that money in alternative energy sources and conservation. I'd also like to move us to a methane / natural gas based economy rather than oil because it's not only cleaner but will point to a simple renewable source (digester gas) that I've written about before. But I'm still thinking about this some and looking at what has been proposed. As you can see in the above comments I missed how our supply of North Sea oil has diminished (in my defense, the oil used on the East Coast is still called "Brent" because of its grade and price, which is why I was confused). So, yes, this is incomplete. But I do think what we have in front of us is primarily a Canadian problem that they have to solve on their own. Their solution for the last 40 years has been primarily to just send the junk south and let the US deal with it. That's not good for anyone. |
2014-04-23T16:19:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22250 |
| I do believe that North American oil is a good working definition of "energy independence". As for Venezuela, it's just not working for them and they'll have to modify it. I tried to address that problem in the next post. | 2014-04-23T16:12:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22249 |
| I don't know that I would call him a "pragmatist" - he is so passive, as you pointed out. Perhaps there has to be a statement of action or actual movement towards the goal as part of the definition. | 2014-04-23T16:11:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/23/pragmatism/#comment-22248 |
| Yes, it is. That’s what started me down this line of thinking. All that we see unfolding now is the direct result of this rigid ideology dressed up like a plan – when it really wasn’t. | 2014-04-23T16:10:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/23/pragmatism/#comment-22247 |
| You are right - this is far more complicated than it used to be. We're actually getting refined gasoline from Europe, which is weird: http://priceofoil.org/2012/02/16/east-coast-refinery-shut-downs-are-a-symptom-of-the-tar-sands-oil-rush/ And Canada is right now getting oil for its east coast mainly from the US. http://www.fuelsnews.com/u-s-gulf-coast-crude-oil-exports-eastern-canada-increase/ http://oilandgas-investments.com/2012/oil-prices/us-east-west-oil-pipeline/ The long and short of it is that there is no good supply right now on the east coast, for both Canada and the US. The pipelines we have are also inadequate, and most of the oil (or gasoline) arrives by tanker. It looks like we have our own work to do, too. But there's no doubt in my mind that a pipeline to the east coast, in Canada and/or the US, is highly desirable. I'm going to have to do a lot more research - things have changed a lot recently. |
2014-04-22T02:47:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22203 |
| As of this January, the US produces 11.7M bbl per day and imports 9.5M bbl/day. Of those imports, 2.7M come from Canada and 1.1M from Mexico, meaning that of the 21.2M bbl we consume 12.3M are North American, or a bit under 60% of it. New Canadian pipelines and oil fields are expected to add about 1M from Canada, meaning we'll be around 2/3 of our oil from North America. That's pretty amazing. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/21/usa-keystone-canada-idUSL2N0NC0CR20140421 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm |
2014-04-22T01:34:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22199 |
| A recent report by Energy Defence of Canada, an environmental group, showed that the capacity of the pipeline exceeds Canada's needs and therefor most of what will be shipped will be for export. Much of that is expected to go to the US East Coast, which is relies heavily on North Sea Brent Oil. That's why gasoline is more expensive in the Northeast. However, there are other fields off Newfoundland such as Hebron and Bay du Nord that will come on line with cleaner crude that is also expected to be exported to the US, so it's not clear just where the tar sands stuff will go. But more oil on our east coast is a good thing. So the environmental groups are saying this is a bad deal for Canada because most of the oil has to wind up in the US. Believe them if you want. :-) | 2014-04-22T01:19:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22197 |
| Yes, Keystone XL also goes through Baken - which desperately needs a pipeline. It may need two, one for liquids and one for gas that is currently being flared. The more I think about this, the more it's all about Canada dumping their junk on the US because our standards are so much slacker than theirs. It's really embarrassing. By stalling, we're going to get them to up their infrastructure and clean the stuff up, it seems. Ontario and Quebec are likely to demand it be partially refined to be as clean as WTI, roughly. If that's the deal Ontario gets, we should get it, too. It's a pretty good sounding standard, frankly. And that wouldn't have come to pass without stalling. If we do get that I will support this pipeline especially because it hooks up Baken. But it's even cooler with a pipeline to eastern Canada. |
2014-04-21T21:12:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22193 |
| It was a good day, glorious weather. I'm glad you had a break after tax season! | 2014-04-21T05:10:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/14/resurrection/#comment-22178 |
| Only the US Dollar, as the global reserve currency, has this problem. As global trade increases, 85% in US Dollars, we lose more and more control over our currency every day. The power that it brings us (read: those with a lot of Dollars) is intoxicating, but it has a price. | 2014-04-21T05:08:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22177 |
| Jobs are the most important way out, yes. But as for monetary policy, writing a check to everyone for $10,000 would have cost the Fed about as much as all the QE they did - but would have had far more interesting results. | 2014-04-21T05:05:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/18/the-underground-economy/#comment-22176 |
| And yes, I think there is plenty of room for a new populism today - for all the same reasons. | 2014-04-21T05:04:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/18/the-underground-economy/#comment-22175 |
| Yes, and deliberately so. You can read about these problems in many articles and I think that they are worth a read. But I have come to see this as a Canadian problem and I think that we have to trust Canada to appropriately regulate it. They are seeking cleaner ways of doing it. Whether or not that is possible, or the extraction has to stop, is up to them in my opinion. I see plenty of reasons to oppose the Keystone XL pipeline based on US interests first, so I am going to go with that. Canada's rather heavy reliance on exports of commodities should trouble them for a lot of reasons, and I wish them the best as they figure this out. | 2014-04-21T05:02:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22174 |
| Yes, that is the conclusion I came to as well. | 2014-04-21T04:55:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22171 |
| I'm working on an honorary PhD in economics, so I have to contradict myself periodically. :-) Seriously, I'm not really a Social Democrat, I'm an American Democrat. I believe in the free market first - except when there's an obvious market failure. I do believe that the system we work under is not pure capitalism, or the rule of money, but based on an ideal called a "Free Market" - which is defined socially and legally as much as it is economically. So if I seem harshly negative, it's a reflection of what I see as a need for more regulation to open up access to the market. Perhaps I should be more explicit about that in the future to be (or at least sound) more consistent. |
2014-04-17T22:32:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22122 |
| It all depends how you look at it. C'mon, you're an economist - isn't there always, "On the other hand ..." ? :-) Seriously, I have been wondering why with all this printing there isn't inflation. It took some digging, but I found at least one answer. It seems like a good one. But it does make me wonder how long it'll last. |
2014-04-17T16:01:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22117 |
| China is still chugging along, but they are definitely going to hit the wall soon, if I believe what I read. I think Russia has already really screwed itself over Ukraine. The BRICS are certainly not what they seemed. | 2014-04-17T12:34:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22114 |
| We're still in the Postwar world in many ways, where the US dominates. That is ending, but not in an "end of an empire" way - more with a whimper. | 2014-04-17T12:33:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22113 |
| It's all because of the backward situation forced on us by being the world's reserve currency. That gives us tremendous power, but only for those who can exercise it. Working people are at a disadvantage in this regime. That's why I proposed a "Trade Weighted Exchange" some time back, a currency based on a basket of currencies that will wean us off of the role that is hurting us so much. | 2014-04-16T20:38:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22093 |
| Yes, we're being lied to about austerity. That simple. And yes, a strong dollar really only benefits those who have a lot of 'em. | 2014-04-16T20:35:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22092 |
| Happy Easter, Dale! | 2014-04-15T04:48:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/14/resurrection/#comment-22069 |
| I didn't see that! Very interesting. I think this was the group of nuns that was subject to papal sanction before, basically a slap-down, so we'll see what happens to them for this! | 2014-04-15T04:47:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/14/resurrection/#comment-22068 |
| Exactly. This is the flipside of "productivity gains", which is a fancy term for less work to go around. :-) I'm a Gen-Xer, so for me even moreso on how things are picked over! | 2014-04-15T04:46:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-22067 |
| This is the kind of leading indicator I like! Can we get any other anecdotes like this? Without violating confidentiality, of course. | 2014-04-15T04:44:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/11/the-case-for-optimism/#comment-22066 |
| That is part of the problem - people are still acting like any gain they get is not permanent. | 2014-04-15T04:43:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/11/the-case-for-optimism/#comment-22065 |
| It is about the proof. I'm making predictions here, because I think they will happen. If they don't we have a serious problem. | 2014-04-15T04:42:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/11/the-case-for-optimism/#comment-22064 |
| Yes. One thing I forgot to mention is that if someone is paid biweekly and they live paycheck-to-paycheck, their velocity is about 26. We found before that in the cash economy it's at least 7. So how does it get to just 1.4 overall? A lot of money is being sat on. | 2014-04-10T18:01:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/09/velocity-and-inflation/#comment-21997 |
| Thanks, and we might very well have an inflation problem. But that would help free up all that money in a big way. More inflation might be good for us. | 2014-04-10T05:33:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/09/velocity-and-inflation/#comment-21991 |
| There's no judgment about who is more developed here, and Canada is always listed as a developed nation. Some of the developed nations have very high labor force participation (US, Australia) and some rather low (Japan). I grouped together the largest economies in the world, which includes both developed and developing - with no call as to who is who. Yes, we do have a lot of unskilled jobs, as you've shown. Calling "most" work skilled might well be pushing it. I have been meaning to look at how the mix in the open jobs compares to the mix in filled jobs. But, yes, more workers only digs the hole deeper after a while. And 60% LFP is around the right answer, at least with a 40 hour workweek. Interesting. |
2014-04-10T05:33:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21990 |
| You have a point, but I'd hate to take it to its logical conclusion. Germany is an interesting exception, but I think it's more about social pressure on high-power executives to not take a lot of money than anything else. | 2014-04-08T01:53:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21951 |
| While doing a better version of this piece for Mint Press, I found that in 2008 there were still 7.7M unemployed then, for a rate of 5%. Unemployment never went near the threshold for "full employment" in the 00s, which is part of my argument that this has been one long Depression. So we've gained 2.8M workers, and that's what the working population grew by in 6 years. Note that it will decline by about that much in the next few years, even before we add more jobs. | 2014-04-07T20:52:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/04/jobs-back-to-even/#comment-21947 |
| I was talking about this on basefook, partly in response to your calling me Mr. Sunshine. :-) It turns out that most people are pretty pessimistic. | 2014-04-07T20:50:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/04/jobs-back-to-even/#comment-21946 |
| I will try to put the graph I created on the bottom, but the R-Squared is 61% - not a bad correlation, but not great. I think there is something to this. | 2014-04-07T20:38:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21945 |
| I seem to remember from my mis-spent childhood in front of a teevee that Jeanie created more trouble than she solved, so I dunno ... | 2014-04-07T20:37:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21944 |
| But how much of that work are people willing to pay for? In the old days, women tended to stay home - and many did a lot of volunteer work. There's no reason men can't do that, too, but we're not set up for that. Before 1968 the labor force participation rate never crossed 60% - and things were running pretty well. Interesting? | 2014-04-07T20:36:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21943 |
| Truly sage words. :-) Thanks! | 2014-04-03T20:17:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/02/markets-big-day/#comment-21888 |
| It's all worth a try. | 2014-04-03T02:51:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/02/markets-big-day/#comment-21879 |
| I will do some more research - this is the first time he came to my attention. The video is interesting - a very reluctant hero at best. He's Canadian. :-) | 2014-04-02T15:52:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/02/markets-big-day/#comment-21877 |
| There are a lot of other things like this, I'm sure. Accounting was one that came to mind. | 2014-04-02T15:51:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-21876 |
| OK, we are in agreement, then, mostly. :-) I'm not sure about "required courses" generally, as I think that a well guided student should be able to gain whatever knowledge they want. But yes, some level of this kind of thing as a "Home Economics" course should be available. Thinking this through, some kind of resource available for everyone, including adults, is not a bad idea at all. Community / Technical colleges do have the resources to provide this and there are many classes around, but it seems a bit haphazard. Perhaps a Center for Industrial Arts located here in my city of St Paul could make an example and start the process rolling as an option for students young and old. But I do think that something like this should be available for free to everyone as a kind of minimum. How much we "require" in high school is another debate. And I agree completely on critical thinking and analytical skills. Heck, I could write a number of posts on ideas for education, and I have a few. I like the idea of "overview" courses that ground students in basics and make it easier for them to know how to select what they want to know more about. |
2014-03-31T03:31:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-21850 |
| I am assuming you are sarcastic, so I'll respond accordingly. I'm not in any way suggesting we replace a liberal arts education, but supplementing it - and making a solid option available for those who want it. Many kids really do want to know these things and they should have that option. | 2014-03-31T03:19:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-21848 |
| Ha! Hadn't thought of that. But yes, everyone needs to know these things, or at least be familiar with them. Perhaps a scaled-down version might be a good required course, along the lines of Home Economics (though I am generally against required courses). | 2014-03-31T03:03:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-21846 |
| They are predators, no doubt. Thanks! | 2014-03-31T03:01:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/28/cant-wait-til-payday/#comment-21845 |
| Yes, Credit Unions are the best alternative - people need to use them much more! | 2014-03-31T03:01:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/28/cant-wait-til-payday/#comment-21844 |
| I hadn't thought of that angle, thank you very much. Is there anything the Patriot Act doesn't touch? Pawnshops are another reality, yes. I should write about that some day. |
2014-03-28T02:28:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/28/cant-wait-til-payday/#comment-21811 |
| About 200%. Although, I think a lot of people there are cashing their checks, not taking out loans. I have been told that for many people the fees they charge are not that bad compared to a bank - but I wish that people were at Credit Unions! | 2014-03-28T02:26:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/28/cant-wait-til-payday/#comment-21810 |
| I agree - I wonder what it will take to get people into the streets here. Taiwan joins Brazil as nations where people are demanding the basic things that make an open society - not something as base as the demands in Ukraine or the Arab Spring. Why can't we have the same kind of movement here? | 2014-03-26T20:39:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-21794 |
| That's where regulation is so important. But a system set up that is hard to game could have FDIC-like systems all through it, and the insurance charges to make that possible should pay their own way. | 2014-03-26T14:31:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/26/fault-tolerance-2/#comment-21790 |
| Yes. Translation, "Our presses are always a'rollin' when the Big Boyz need a quick fix." Go ahead and sleep - they do try to make sure things like that happen in the night as much as possible. |
2014-03-25T03:17:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-21777 |
| Yes, it is the last thing they want. And it probably is the explicit promise of higher rates that spooked the market. But seriously .... who didn't see it coming? | 2014-03-25T01:18:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-21774 |
| I agree. Women have consistently been good reformers. That may be more due to their outsider status than their gender, per se, but whatever works. | 2014-03-25T01:18:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-21773 |
| Do Obama and Putin keep their shirts on, or not? | 2014-03-22T00:18:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21738 |
| Yes! It means "Pilsner from the original source," which is to say the original maker of the style in Pilsen, Czech Republic. That's its German name. In Czech it's "Plzensky Prazdroj," meaning the same. The spelling Urquell is the masculine, but I prefer the feminine "Urquelle" - both are correct depending on dialect. Here's their US site: http://pilsnerurquell.com/us It is a good beer, and it is indeed the origin of the style! |
2014-03-22T00:18:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21737 |
| Good point. I'll bet many people retire before they think they are ready to. | 2014-03-22T00:13:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/19/golden-years/#comment-21736 |
| Thanks! | 2014-03-22T00:13:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21735 |
| Ditto. And yes, in the heat of an election all standards get thrown out. | 2014-03-22T00:13:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21734 |
| I like this one: https://scontent-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1.0-9/1958449_10152071335559482_1196900619_n.jpg also this one: https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/t1.0-9/q71/s720x720/1623748_585475748210109_1512289252_n.jpg (I hope these work) |
2014-03-22T00:12:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21733 |
| Thanks. I have been wondering for a while what the retirement age is and how it's changing, too! Zoning is ... one of those things. I honestly don't know how I feel about it in the abstract. Some zoning seems obviously necessary, but it's so easy to go overboard. But don't property owners have some right to protect their value? I can go many ways at once with it. |
2014-03-21T03:44:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/19/golden-years/#comment-21722 |
| Thanks, you do good work, too! The principle of a "negative income tax" as Friedman called it or any other guarantee that work makes a certain minimum is a very compelling one. The minimum wage functions essentially the same way, except it very much is a tax on employment. On that basis it is a bad idea, and I've argued in a lot of posts that we should not have taxes on employment, so you have a point. But the details utterly blow my mind, to be honest. :-) I also agree on tipping, but this is the system we have. Some restaurants have moved to a higher base wage and discourage tipping, especially in New York, so there may be a trend there. But it is a social thing at this point. Again, I can't disagree with you, but the details of moving away from the system we have are hard to grasp. There's a lot more to write about, for sure! If only I had a paying job where I could consider this all day. :-) Thank you for your contributions, I sill definitely follow you more closely and hope my readers do, too! |
2014-03-20T19:40:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21717 |
| The survey was about people's opinions, so it didn't get too far into how much they had saved - just whether it was "enough". | 2014-03-19T16:48:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/19/golden-years/#comment-21685 |
| I hadn't thought about the fees - I guess the banks are always the ones who get rich off anything. I'll think about the ACT - my daughter has some things to say about it, too. Many colleges don't really worry about it too much anymore, which is interesting. |
2014-03-19T16:47:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/19/golden-years/#comment-21684 |
| Please don't tip less! :-) | 2014-03-18T20:32:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21650 |
| Thank you, a good way to look at it. 0.5% added to inflation we see today ~1.0% is still well below the target of 2.0% that the Fed has. I suspect the net affect is the same nationwide, too, but I can't be sure. (BTW, when you write .5% most people can't see the decimal - that's why 0.5% looks so much better. :-) ) |
2014-03-17T19:29:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21618 |
| The cold weather is more of a damper on it here. Sleet is a killer. | 2014-03-17T19:27:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/14/st-patricks-day-4/#comment-21617 |
| We do get the best. It takes ambition to make a fresh start in a land of opportunity. | 2014-03-17T03:51:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/14/st-patricks-day-4/#comment-21600 |
| It's best to stay home, yes, but I do like to have just one at McGovern's. :-) | 2014-03-17T03:50:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/14/st-patricks-day-4/#comment-21599 |
| Thanks! | 2014-03-17T03:49:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/14/st-patricks-day-4/#comment-21598 |
| Fair enough, but we do have to start somewhere. What I am trying to do here is use something like a scientific method for politics - what is the worst that can happen? Think of it as the antithesis for the proposal. If this is as bad as it gets, how can you oppose it? But yes, we do need the benefits. I will work on that. | 2014-03-17T03:48:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21597 |
| Not at all. I was looking at a purely worst case scenario, which is that in the case of our state it runs at most half a cent per buck in the state's economy. That's purely the cost, not the benefit. I am sure the benefits are large, but that will take another calculation which I don't have at my disposal right now. |
2014-03-17T01:13:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21591 |
| Congratulations, you found a way to update the old fashion way of dealing with this for a TV and Internet age. | 2014-03-13T20:08:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21544 |
| You make an excellent point. If we want to get serious about combatting the Bratva, there must be many things we can do without having to take out Putin or anything else rash. And we should. One of the things that bothered me in all this is the tepid response from UK PM Cameron. London is the main destination for Bratva money that has been laundered and seeks a safe haven away from Russia, and that money appears to have bought Cameron. We can't let that happen. So yes, let's have a "War on Crime" like our "War on Terrorism" and all that. We can start by using all the tools at our disposal to cut off their money, because a lot of the laundering through Miami into the Caymans and BVI is somewhat well known. An excellent point, thank you. |
2014-03-13T00:44:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21531 |
| There is indeed ethnic tension, but its importance is mostly related to how it is being exploited. I'm sure ethnic Russians would rather not go too Western, but there have to be ways to give them what they really want in terms of language righs, etc. Crimea was always an autonomous province for this reason. The boundaries largely reflect the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (1917), when Germany set out to punish Russia as severely as possible. They are artificial. Don't think that Russians don't know where the Ukrainian border came from, either, so it is a big sore point. I covered this before: http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/ |
2014-03-12T19:35:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21527 |
| I'm pretty steamed, but I must have written something pissier. The poll showed that people who watch only partisan nooze (Fox, MSNBC) are indeed misinformed, meaning those outlets are worse than useless. Maybe I'll be more angry for a bit. I'm really sick to death of how awful our media is generally. I don't know how we can call ourselves a free people when we are terribly misinformed. |
2014-03-12T19:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21526 |
| Thanks. I do not think this is all there is to the story, but it appears to be one of the most important parts and certainly the genesis of this round of rebellion. I cannot believe how it has been ignored. As for China, I just saw this today - http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/world/asia/china-torn-between-policies-and-partnership.html?_r=0 Apparently, not everything is about China, either - and they also don't know quite what to do about it. This will have to develop, I'm sure, but the certainly don't want to back away from Russia. Interesting problem for them. And great call on Yeltsin, thank you for that link. |
2014-03-12T19:29:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21525 |
| OK, then, let's call it "Zulu" and let everyone know it's what the US Military uses. That's right, the Time of Heroes! Better? :-) | 2014-03-11T03:32:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/10/time-flies/#comment-21485 |
| No, it doesn't. But if they would just stop screwing with the clocks ... :-) | 2014-03-10T18:42:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/10/time-flies/#comment-21476 |
| Thanks! | 2014-03-10T18:42:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/10/time-flies/#comment-21475 |
| There is indeed corruption everywhere, and it's a matter of degree. Point well taken. Their government was especially corrupt by our standards, so on a relative basis I'll stand by the comment. But yes, it's everywhere. | 2014-03-09T18:05:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21461 |
| I agree generally, which is why I support an infrastructure initiative. This is very interesting, and thanks for it. The gap between current GDP and "potential" was highlighted by the CBO recently, and I have to admit I don't understand it. Id like to know more about what goes into that calculation. But what I see in the link you sent is that the gap is really huge, and that is reasonable after the harsh downturn. The CBO claimed that we should make up the difference by 2022, which seems really odd to me. As for Krugman's piece, I generally agree except for two things - there are deficit issues in outlying years (as he notes, but discounts) that we should address now, and the velocity of the US Dollar is still very much in the toilet, something that suggests it's not a money supply problem but a more structural issue that is harder to address with simple stimulus. But with caution and a better accounting for ongoing expenditures versus capital I think we can manage whatever problems we have and yes, let's do a lot more to grow the economy into the debt we have accumulated already! |
2014-03-09T18:04:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21460 |
| That is a big number, but I think it's a bit too high. This is a reflection of the U6 unemployment number, which counts everything including not having enough hours, given up looking for work, etc. It's still at 13.1% overall, and that's a tragedy. I suspect that to get to the figure they are using they are including men voluntarily out of the workforce such as in school, raising the kids, etc, but the figure for workforce participation overall for men 25-54 was 88.7% in 2012. http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_303.htm That's more like 1 in 8 overall, and some are indeed voluntarily not working. I wish U6 was broken down by age and gender (anyone have a link?) but it's probably more on the order of 1 in 10. So I can't make sense of where they get that number. |
2014-03-09T00:25:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21445 |
| I'm glad this issue is finally getting some attention, but that is old data. Jan 2010 was the low point for jobs all around, and things were very desperate then. The unemployment rate for 20-24 year olds is down to 11.9% - still very high by any measure, but improving. It was slower at improving than the overall unemployment rate from 2010-2013, but finally showed some movement last year. I suspect it's because the hiring that was going on was largely to fill very specific needs and people with experience that allowed them to hit the job at top speed on day one were getting the work before kids right out of school. I don't doubt that a lot of people are taking any damned job they can find at this point in this environment. Opportunities for the young are still nowhere near where they need to be, IMHO. At any rate, the improvement is happening but it's very, very slow. I don't think we can say we are really "recovering" until the 20-24 unemployment rate hits its longer-term trend of about 7%, which at this rate appears years away. I think this stat is very much worth watching, as we did through 2013. |
2014-03-08T07:04:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21430 |
| That's ridiculous - France and Germany don't invade Russia in the Spring! :-) A chess match does sound like a good idea. Or, perhaps, we could spice up the Olympics by putting real territory on the line. |
2014-03-07T21:35:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21420 |
| I think that if there was to be more we would have seen it by now. Putin's advantage wears thinner the longer the rest of the world has to organize, so I think he would have struck by now if that was his plan. I may be wrong, of course, especially since I clearly don't think like Putin. So we will see. |
2014-03-07T17:43:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21414 |
| You are right, describing everything as a "War" is tiresome. It doesn't have to be that way. Ukraine is figuring out who they are, as a people, which is to say distinct from Russia. It's messy and doesn't always go according to a plan. But it should all come together. |
2014-03-07T16:33:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21412 |
| http://thecoloursisterhood.com/project/human-trafficking-prevention-education-ukraine The concern of the EU is outlined in the links given for the Eastern Partnership. It is a grave concern and one of the features of the Kiev Bratva. Yes, history plays a role here as this is almost traditional - our word "slave" comes from "slav". It is definitely the main reason there is a push for closer cooperation, along with the impudent cybercrime. |
2014-03-07T01:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21403 |
| After a brief panic on Monday, the markets appear to think otherwise. I would never discount brutality from Putin, but this seems to be the response from the West. Time will tell. | 2014-03-07T00:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21400 |
| I understood it that way. :-) | 2014-03-06T19:03:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21391 |
| I hate to criticize the Fed because they are the only ones actually doing something. QE3, or the $85B/mon in mortgage bonds, is really a jobs program. Congress wouldn't make one so the Fed did the best they could. I also agree that the inflation target of 2% seems to be a good one for keeping the US Dollar from falling out of line on Foreign Exchange, so they are apparently doing the right things so far. I do worry about China largely because they are far more strategic than we are. We are so short-term focused by comparison. I am not terribly worried about exporting our wealth to them, but -- I feel that there are fewer jobs for working people here as a result and over in China a small number of rich get richer while they work the nation like slaves and pollute it. Yes, that should even out eventually. I'd like it to even out sooner rather than later, and I'd really like it to happen before they acquire real power. |
2014-03-06T19:03:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21390 |
| No, they aren't. They probably should be, based on what I have seen. The Euro at $1.37 has to be killing them. They have a deflation problem, too, which is to say imports are getting cheaper all the time. The Germans are still running the show, and they seem to just love austerity. Perhaps they will be proved right in the long run. |
2014-03-05T20:16:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21369 |
| It only really works for developing nations on the fast track - as Japan was in the 60s, China in the 90s, etc. I think they all have to hit the wall once they start to hit the big leagues. The experiment in Japan right now is probably doomed, but it's been a good ride so far. | 2014-03-05T20:14:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21368 |
| At this time, I think you are right. However, if there is an invasion of all of Ukraine I think we will have to be involved because of our NATO obligations and the fears of other NATO nations like Poland. | 2014-03-04T15:30:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21335 |
| Apparently, that ultimatum was not real. Whew! Things are settling down a bit now. This will take a while to play out. | 2014-03-04T15:28:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21334 |
| Addendum: I have been thinking about this, and two thoughts come to mind. 1) The EU is not proposing anything more in terms of a relationship with Ukraine than helping to stomp out organized crime. Russia's reaction seems disproportionate when you consider that this initial relationship with the EU is pretty minor. Is the Putin government acting primarily to preserve the Kiev Bratva? Links between the government and the Bratva are hard to come by with actual proof, but it is clear that Putin et al are protecting them. Is this more than protection that was paid for, and is in fact policy? 2) Ukraine has more leverage than I thought. If Russia invades wholesale, they could blow up the oil and gas pipelines crossing their territory. Russia would be bankrupt in a month, and western Europe would be desperate. They would have to intervene to bring order to the situation. If I was in charge of Ukraine I would tell Russia, "Let's sit down and talk. Any further action will result in the pipelines being blown up. We have explosives already strapped to them." As of right now, Russia is trying to force Ukrainian forces out of Crimea entirely, and has threatened more action by 0300 GMT if they do not leave. This may be the flashpoint. Stay tuned. |
2014-03-03T17:38:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21308 |
| I do not think they are that stupid, but Russia does appear to be desperate. | 2014-03-03T17:32:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21307 |
| History is my "thing". :-) | 2014-03-03T03:11:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21295 |
| I believe he was bribed. It's the only thing that makes sense. And it gives me hope that the main way Russia is going to fight this war is to spread money around. | 2014-03-03T03:10:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21294 |
| That is the real point, in the end. | 2014-03-02T22:00:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/28/a-not-so-bold-plan/#comment-21287 |
| It does have to be done, yes, and there are many ways to pay for it. I am still holding out hope for real reform sometime. | 2014-03-02T22:00:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/28/a-not-so-bold-plan/#comment-21286 |
| That is the real problem. Russia is very serious, and our leverage is tiny. It is all a collection of unfinished business from the World Wars and the Cold War. | 2014-03-02T21:58:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21285 |
| Thanks. Sorry it is so long, but it had to be. | 2014-03-02T21:56:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21284 |
| I agree, most of it is just trashing Obama. But some of it is darker and more persistent. We get over the Depression when people stop believing this stuff, I think, given that we have turned the corner. It's about time we move ahead. | 2014-02-26T17:10:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/26/6-myths-about-the-economy/#comment-21209 |
| I remember it well, too, which is why I practice it as much as I can. | 2014-02-25T15:38:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/24/talking-to-teens/#comment-21182 |
| I completely agree. The sooner the better! | 2014-02-25T15:37:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/24/talking-to-teens/#comment-21181 |
| Yes, that is the way it was. Great add, thank you! These guys are about the same, but I think they are a bit more grounded than we were. | 2014-02-25T15:37:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/24/talking-to-teens/#comment-21180 |
| Excellent! I couldn't agree with you more! | 2014-02-23T18:32:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/21/jobs-now/#comment-21142 |
| I have done this in the past, but I think we know a lot more now - such as a reasonable end-date for this business cycle and a lot more about the next wave. I may work on that this weekend - I have some work to do that will let my mind wander. :-) Thanks! |
2014-02-21T22:08:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/21/jobs-now/#comment-21117 |
| Thanks! | 2014-02-20T20:12:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/19/managing-innovation-2/#comment-21091 |
| You may well be right. Rebuilding that faith would be a huge investment, but if a company wants to innovate over the long haul it would be worth it, IMHO. | 2014-02-20T20:12:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/19/managing-innovation-2/#comment-21090 |
| That is largely what is happening, but the US is a center for research. Whether or not we can separate the making of products from their design and optimization is a real question, and I'm on your side here. It doesn't make sense to me that we can run the show if we don't do the work. | 2014-02-20T15:52:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/19/managing-innovation-2/#comment-21086 |
| If this happened every year, I would think we would become a lot meaner. :-) | 2014-02-19T04:30:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/17/a-humbling-cold/#comment-21061 |
| Thank you. I am quite sick of it, too. Was long ago! | 2014-02-19T04:30:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/17/a-humbling-cold/#comment-21060 |
| They think they are by keeping unions out of Tennessee, which is what their rigid ideology teaches them. It's stupid. | 2014-02-14T20:41:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20983 |
| I'm a bit surprised that he's directly involved in this. I thought his schtick was all about tax cuts. So this is a bit strange - but it is the "usual suspects", yes. | 2014-02-14T19:40:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20981 |
| If the left starts doing things like that, I promise you I'll be on top of it like this one. But they've been out of power for a long time and I don't see that coming any time soon. Yes, let's just let VW run the plant as they want to - given that they aren't doing anything harmful. |
2014-02-14T19:39:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20980 |
| Yes, it is! :-) | 2014-02-14T17:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20974 |
| Thank you, and I'd love to hear more from you as to how it's going. I'm sure this story is far from done, even after the vote. I'm simply stunned that what looks to me like a new chapter in management-labor relations forged as a great compromise is controversial at all. If VW wants to run their plant this way - well, more power to 'em. If they are successful perhaps everyone will copy them - and if they aren't it'll go down as a failed experiment. Why not try something new? They're putting their money down on it. It certainly can't hurt workers. |
2014-02-14T05:10:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20963 |
| Exactly. This is why I have been focused on youth unemployment for over a year now. http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/ http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/ But keep in mind that anything that says "Since the recovery began" is starting from the official "recovery" after the recession, which is to say in 2009. The low point for jobs was in January 2010, and we didn't see significant improvement until the end of 2011. Since the start of 2012 there has been some improvement, if slow. So I say that Brookings erred by looking at the official definitions of recession rather than the behavior of the job market itself, which has very much lagged any official "recovery". And this goes to the heart of my argument that we have been in a Depression since 2000: http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/ |
2014-02-14T04:30:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20960 |
| But with retirement, the percent of employees working WILL continue to drop, and there is little we can do to stop it. I do favor a jobs program, and that is what the bond buying program really is in the end. But - this will all start to come out in the wash once there is a labor shortage in the 2020s. I expect 2017 is the year that everything changes, and I'm very much sticking with that. http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/ Of course, we should do what we can to encourage employment growth today, but do it with an eye to restructuring the economy to the very new one that is arriving. |
2014-02-14T04:25:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20959 |
| Actually, no - it has increased by about 6M since the start of the depression in 2000, and 4M of that is accounted for by disability and retirement. Those leaving the workforce involuntarily has not been significant since January 2012. The Philadelphia Fed report on this is found here and my summary of this report and the other effects is found here. The total decline in participation since its peak in 2000 has been about 4 percentage points from 67% to 63%. This is about 6M people total in a workforce (over 16, not in military, jail or hospital) of 155M. It will continue to fall as people retire, too, hitting 60% or even less by 2020 as the peak Baby Boom hits retirement age. | 2014-02-13T14:10:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20939 |
| I am sure that at least some of the insurers are part of the heat on Obamacare. The industry as a whole seems to be enjoying the infusion of money, but I'm sure at least a few players are willing to spend a lot of money to counter the regulations that came with it. So, yes, I agree with you - accounting for non-uniformity over the population. |
2014-02-12T22:30:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/10/more-games-more-work/#comment-20919 |
| I believe they are going to continue tapering, but not go to zero. So expect a buy between $0-85M each month. I could use that kind of money to play with. :-) |
2014-02-12T22:28:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20918 |
| There may be a few, but I wouldn't expect too much. She seems as open as Bernanke and will probably continue to be about as available. | 2014-02-12T18:35:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20911 |
| A good point, but outwardly they seem to be embracing this and working with the system. More insured people with government assistance is more money for them - although they are also much more tightly regulated. The focus on personality is indeed a standard Alinsky tactic - "Pick the target, freeze it, personify it." The right has done a good job of following Alinsky's prescription. Yes, the insurance industry has to be supporting at least some of this effort. But they aren't doing it openly. |
2014-02-10T16:05:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/10/more-games-more-work/#comment-20880 |
| I don't know what to say. The number is very low, but it also disagrees with the ADP reports. The BLS reported +113k jobs in January after only +137k in December. That sounds horrible. But ADP had +175k in January and +238k in December - a total difference of 163k jobs or more than 80k per month! They've never diverged this much before. I have no idea at all why this could have happened. |
2014-02-10T15:05:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/10/more-games-more-work/#comment-20878 |
| Yes, the US has been doing much better than all the other developed economies - Eurozone, Japan, and even UK. That's true over both the long and short term. So I can't help but think we're doing something quite right, generally. The debt we took on may not have been so terrible - it promoted more growth generally. It would be better without , though, yes. Good links, some useful charts there. Also, the writers included a lot of fundamentals which are very handy! |
2014-02-09T05:23:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/07/back-to-the-future-2/#comment-20860 |
| I can't find anything to confirm this. It's an elite group money-wise, so you'd have to find a corresponding study of any kind on the same group. A quick search didn't uncover anything. I'll keep an eye out for anything similar. | 2014-02-09T05:20:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/07/back-to-the-future-2/#comment-20859 |
| Credit card debt is declining, so my guess is that younger people are not picking up new debt, no. This poll does beg for more in depth questions and surveys of a broader population, yes. | 2014-02-09T05:19:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/07/back-to-the-future-2/#comment-20858 |
| I think the operative word here is "or", but many of them did come from rich families, yes. But the hard times still left a mark all the same. I would expect the conservative nature of this generation to be even more pronounced among the middle-class and poor. I also think this begs for more in-depth questioning about why they don't like stocks - I'll bet they think the market is rigged and/or a casino. |
2014-02-07T15:43:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/07/back-to-the-future-2/#comment-20824 |
| I would prefer to see taxes raised, but the main point is that the Democrats typically deny there is a problem with things as they are - which also threatens the entire system. | 2014-02-06T03:50:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/05/something-like-a-warning/#comment-20788 |
| That is the need - sometime after 2017 an actual balance. It would be helpful, especially in terms of keep the interest payments from taking over the budget later on. Once again, the Simpson-Bowles framework is the only way I can see anything happening. |
2014-02-05T21:14:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/05/something-like-a-warning/#comment-20781 |
| That is a good point. It's been discussed elsewhere, and there is a very real gap between "potential", or a line of constant growth extending forward from the 1990s until the 2020s and the real growth we are seeing. If they catch up, as shown, we have to have a few years of acceleration - not to mention a normalization of 4-5% growth. The chart does not show that. There is a mistake here. Thanks for pointing it out, I missed that. I will try to find other commentary on the CBO estimates to see where the mistake was made. |
2014-02-05T15:55:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/05/something-like-a-warning/#comment-20778 |
| Yes, I remember hiding cuts and bruises, too! Why did we do that? Seriously, that was dumb. I think the kids today are going to grow up to be really great, and they will do great things. I'm very impressed by them generally and I'm quite sure the world is in good hands. But some didn't get a chance to just be kids, which is not good. |
2014-02-04T17:38:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/03/kids-being-kids-amazing/#comment-20761 |
| I fixed those, thanks. Dunno what happened. A good point on "professionals" raising our kids so much, which is a problem. But the right kind of "safe" is very important. Yes, they shouldn't step in front of cars. But a space where they can fail without serious consequences is a good thing to have. How else can they learn what their limits are if they don't test them? |
2014-02-04T04:59:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/03/kids-being-kids-amazing/#comment-20743 |
| The competition is in March, I'll let you know. :-) Creating the right environment to nurture kids is difficult, but I am certain that if you err one way or the other the best one is to let them figure things out on their own. Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement. :-) | 2014-02-04T04:57:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/03/kids-being-kids-amazing/#comment-20742 |
| I think there are some weird formatting problems at the top you should take a look at. I agree that kids should have a chance to just play but there are a lot of dangerous things around. Like if you are near a busy street you really have to watch where they go. But they will learn pretty quickly if you teach them right. Absent parents are a big problem with everyone taking care of everyone else's kids. Maybe with more of the right attention and parents doing what they are supposed to we wouldn't have all the rules. |
2014-02-03T20:11:27+00:00 | Annalise Cudahy | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/03/kids-being-kids-amazing/#comment-20723 |
| Outside of Downtown the city is doing very well! I should have said more about the Port Authority and their ability to create useful industrial sites that do create jobs. | 2014-02-02T18:30:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/31/cities-and-the-future/#comment-20683 |
| The model they used for many years, office jobs, was a dead end. The new model is stressing residential development as a way of building a base for a nightlife and to bring back retail. I hope it works! | 2014-02-02T18:29:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/31/cities-and-the-future/#comment-20682 |
| St Paul needs a lot of help. It is a cool place all around but it dies way too early. | 2014-02-02T18:19:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/31/cities-and-the-future/#comment-20681 |
| Thanks! No, it does not follow that a 1% reduction in overhead cost gives us a 1% rise in employment, not at all. I have seen no studies on this and I don't know how I would approach it. I have been looking for the same costs in other nations, but I really can't find them - that might be one way to do it. | 2014-01-30T02:13:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/29/head-count-or-overhead/#comment-20620 |
| I accept that this is flawed, and I do think the Provaliant numbers are in many ways closer. Yes, paid leave includes vacation, sick pay, and so on, but it is non-productive work so it does count as "overhead". It's a category that other nations will be higher than us in, so there's always that to consider. I agree that outside of health insurance the costs do scale with wages, so as far as these numbers go they are going to be similar at all incomes. I suppose I should have calculated that with this ration a Minimum Wage of $7.25/hr is about $10.33/hr. So maybe a compromise to raise the Minimum Wage should be to reduce the other net "employment taxes" - and implement universal health care to take the burden off of business. Oh ... wait ... Republicans are against that ... damned! :-) |
2014-01-30T02:12:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/29/head-count-or-overhead/#comment-20619 |
| I don't know that I really like these numbers, but they are what we have. But yes, this is the real cost of employees and we look incredibly expensive. Other nations don't have the health care burden attached to manufactured goods (or other things, for that matter). | 2014-01-30T02:07:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/29/head-count-or-overhead/#comment-20618 |
| Thanks! I am thinking about how to mix it up a bit more. Now that I have a gig with Mint Press News I'm starting to think my biz/econ stuff should tend to migrate there and more social commentary should sit here. The latter is more popular. Although I do believe that they have to inform each other. I'm thinking about it. This is the kind of stuff I think about all the time. | 2014-01-28T05:44:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20608 |
| Yes, it has at times. Many times, in fact. But the history of revolutions tells me that if you can't imagine what comes next before you start ripping everything down what will come next is purest Hell. | 2014-01-28T05:42:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20607 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-01-28T05:41:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20606 |
| As a father, that worries me. And I do believe that a few years from now things will change around - but only if we can imagine a much better world. I'm afraid we've lost the ability to do that. | 2014-01-28T05:40:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20605 |
| Thanks for the reblog! | 2014-01-28T05:39:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20604 |
| Sometimes, good news is just good news. :-) The tapering of QE was taken as a sign of strength overall, which it should have been. Yellen is coming in soon and we may see some policy changes. I am not worried about Europe because I think it will only effect the large investment banks - and they don't seem to have a lot of influence on the economy. I could be wrong about that, of course, but I do think we will see this year as losses are realized. A big write-down in bad loans is good for the whole system, after all. It's the traditional way of shedding debt in a downturn. |
2014-01-24T17:00:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/24/what-do-you-expect/#comment-20586 |
| I agree, as always, on facebook. But the market seems pretty reasonably priced to me given that there is a turnaround in progress. Corporate profits are still very high and they are starting to be re-invested in growth. It's slow, but it is coming. But yes, facebook shows us that there are bubbles here and there - I simply don't think we can judge the whole market based on those silly things. | 2014-01-24T16:58:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/24/what-do-you-expect/#comment-20585 |
| Thank you for your response, I believe you are correct on all counts. I do worry that Europe may have a "lost generation" if this goes on much longer and there is no work for young people, so this is a particularly bad problem for everyone around the world. Now that the leaders are not dealing with one crisis after another I hope they can tackle it, as they discussed at Davos. Here in the US, you are very correct that our spending on military and the defense of our "empire". We would be very wise to cut that back and improve our social "safety net" while improving our infrastructure. It is not as obvious of a problem as it is in Europe, but it is one that could define this generation far more than is healthy as well. Our states are the place to do most of that work, but they have been strangled in the downturn and cannot act with an appropriate Keynesian response. As the economy improves slightly I hope we can get back to work on these issues - and really cut the Federal government, especially military. |
2014-01-24T16:56:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20584 |
| Yes, they were slow to fully realize the loans - because it totally slays the balance sheet. They almost certainly wrote off what they could over the last few years without hitting a level that slaughtered their profits, but now they have a deadline. Realizing a big hit at once makes 4Q13 look really bad, but it does get it out of the way. I have been looking for information on how much has been written off so far but I have no good estimates. I am assuming there is more to come because of the deadline and because it just seems that the magnitude was way, way higher than what we've seen so far. |
2014-01-23T01:06:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20558 |
| Let's see how 2014 goes before we say that. This might be the year they really start to take the hits. | 2014-01-22T18:43:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20552 |
| That's a bit harsh, but I do think that the leaders don't really care about the people, nor really report to them in any way as it's set up. The austerity programs do show that, at least. | 2014-01-22T18:42:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20551 |
| I don't know the total exposure. It's going to come in the CDSs primarily, and those will be limited to JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, etc. I don't think it will be a big deal, but it's worth watching. If I see a good estimate I'll pass it along. | 2014-01-22T16:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20546 |
| Policy can help and it can hurt, yes. I can't possibly tease out the effects as we're seeing them now given how strong the market forces appear to be. | 2014-01-22T03:27:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20536 |
| Thanks so much! Yes, there is a possibility in an election year that this might get done. I'm hopeful! | 2014-01-22T03:26:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/06/at-a-minimum/#comment-20535 |
| Yes, this is an important part of his preaching, but it has been lost over the years. I hope we can get it back. 1968 was a huge turning point in so many ways - and one of the most important was the loss of a great leader like Dr. King. | 2014-01-21T22:02:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/20/the-long-road-of-dr-king/#comment-20528 |
| And the Post Office, don't forget them! :-) Yes, it is a strange holiday, but a good one all the same. I do celebrate it with my kids. | 2014-01-20T15:46:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/20/the-long-road-of-dr-king/#comment-20513 |
| That is what I hope for more than anything else. It would make all the difference, yes. | 2014-01-20T15:45:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/20/the-long-road-of-dr-king/#comment-20512 |
| That's pretty broad, so I won't go there myself. But that view is popular with a lot of people who are otherwise liberal these days. Big government rates about as well as Big Business. I think that's a reasonable position overall. | 2014-01-17T06:07:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/15/no-decision-is-a-decision/#comment-20481 |
| That's the JP Morgan way! I think that is a standard operation for a lot of companies, actually. Do your best and just expect that there may be a problem later. I would hope it didn't come to that, however. | 2014-01-17T06:05:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/15/no-decision-is-a-decision/#comment-20480 |
| They may not know. But you are right, the internet point of attack may be a ruse. But it would be one Hell of a story if false information was put out by a company this big just to make the perp think the heat wasn't on. | 2014-01-17T06:04:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/17/a-big-fat-target/#comment-20479 |
| Note: A piece at Forbes takes on the pick-up of this piece at MinnPost: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/01/15/u-s-unemployment-retirees-are-not-the-labor-exodus-problem/ I like this piece, actually, because it goes to my main point that the decline in labor force participation started in 2000, which is to say when this depression started. Unfortunately, it ignored my main contention that the last 2 years have been different (and thus none of this can be blamed on Obama). But aside from that, we're getting at some discussion of the economy that takes a longer view, realizing that 2000 was the turning point. This is only a good thing. |
2014-01-16T02:00:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20462 |
| BTW, this is a very good article and I do recommend it. The primary difference between their analysis and that done by the Philly Fed is that they looked at the last 4 years exclusively, whereas Philly noted that retirement accounts for the changes in just the last 2 years. Both are consistent with each other - 2010 and 2011 were terrible years by any measure. However, the decline in workforce participation listed continues, meaning that the rate of people staying in school or other reasons is still important, as noted. The turnaround is weak. There is fodder there for Republicans after all! But with 4.1M jobs created in the last two years and about 2M retiring (more or less - we don't know for sure) there are more openings - and the labor participation rate should improve for those under retirement age. But as of today it remains a bad job market for young people even with a small turnaround. |
2014-01-14T21:28:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20458 |
| Thanks! | 2014-01-14T21:03:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20457 |
| First of all, I never claimed to be an oracle, so criticizing me for not being one is pretty silly. Second of all, that is one of the topics I have been harping on for a year now. Young people are opting to stay in school and are NOT finding jobs. There is a discussion of this above with a lot of links. It IS a serious problem and deserves a lot more attention. I'm glad Bloomberg is focusing on it because it's been largely ignored for far too long. Third, given that this IP is in Las Vegas, I'll just assume you are Smithson continuing to stalk me and change names randomly. That's not only rude, it's really creepy. Please stop. |
2014-01-14T20:57:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20456 |
| Predictions are nothing more than a desperate cry for attention - and the way the 'net is today it's a requirement. I won't necessarily say that I'm doing the self-promotion part adequately - hell, I'm sure I'm doing something wrong - but you have to do that to get some kind of gig these days. It's not really my idea. So I'll keep at it, although your suggestion is still a good one. The most likely way it would fail is any kind of emergency caused by another financial meltdown. While the system isn't as fragile as it was in 2008 on paper, JP Morgan is probably has a lot more risk than we know. So that would be the top cause for concern, for sure. It also appears that budget battles are bad for the economy, so a really big, long shutdown could kill things off. But as for things getting better - they are. We had a good holiday retail season - except it didn't register in the old-line retail and instead went to smaller and online-only outlets. It's all changing very rapid, everything. And it's really hard to take advantage of what improvements we have. So ... what do we have ... all this is the way it is because of requirements of the internet. So perhaps you should compare me to Hitler if you wanna be all internetty about things. I am a dog owner, so I have that in common with the guy. And floppy straight hair that hangs down funny. I'm soooo much like Hitler. :-) |
2014-01-13T23:55:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20436 |
| I'll gladly drop the Mr. Sunshine handle for a moment. We are in a Depression. The last 5 years have been horrible for everyone, and many people have been in pain for a decade or more. And I don't expect that we'll really get out of it for at least 3 more years. But - there is some progress. If you don't want to call that enough, that's fine. You don't really know that you've turned the corner until you can look back and see where it started to go right, but I think that 2013 will be that year. It's not much, but it's a start. What I hate more than just lying about the situation is the perpetuation of the whole framework that we have for understanding the situation. That is, people still talk about this as if it is a conventional postwar recession and everything should go somewhat like all the other recessions. That's ludicrous. It's a Depression and it requires different action. The wave of retirement is a double-edged sword, creating opportunities for young people while it increases demands on social services. We have to enter this period ahead with our eyes wide open. But we're not. We're fed lies that reinforce an utterly wrong way to look at the challenges we have. That leaves aside the ridiculous "blame game" where everyone wants to pin this on some leader past or present, as if policy made this world just the way it is. I've done some of that, too, and it ultimately made no sense at all. The origin of this lie is a deep need to blame Obama, which is totally ridiculous. And you can't blame GW Bush or Reagan, either. Want a song lyric? Try Margaritaville - "Some people claim that there's a woman to blame, but I know - it's nobody's fault." |
2014-01-13T22:01:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20433 |
| It does seem to be a deliberate attempt to "talk down" the economy for political reasons, yes. I can never be sure of motivation so I don't like to go there, but there is a consistent theme. And it's sick. | 2014-01-13T21:54:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20432 |
| Thank you! Will check out your blog shortly. | 2014-01-13T21:53:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20431 |
| Perhaps it is overstated, but I think there is a deliberate campaign here that is leading people to a wrong conclusion. To me, that's a lie - even if it isn't explicit. Certainly, by the time it's repeated in blogs and so on it often becomes an outright lie, and that appears to be by design. I could not find one example of the outright lie in the mainstream media, no. There is a lot of talk about reduced confidence, which is utter hooey, IMHO. People are retiring ... it's pretty obvious. And in the last two years that's been the story. They are leaving behind job openings that will be filled by young people. Mazeltov! |
2014-01-13T03:49:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20422 |
| Thanks. I didn't want to have to be explicit, but the lie seems to be accelerating - despite a few good articles explaining it. The problem is that the articles so far do not account for the first part of the decline, largely because it requires an understanding of the downturn since 2000. | 2014-01-13T02:51:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20420 |
| There is still a chance that personal liability is being investigated. But for now, no one except Madoff has gone to jail over the scams run out of Morgan. It's sick. I rarely use the term "evil", but it does seem to fin JPM pretty well. |
2014-01-10T16:44:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/10/jobs-unfrozen/#comment-20405 |
| This came from ADP, a private payroll processing firm. Their number has always been more accurate in the past, which is to say less noisy from one month to the next. I do not understand this HUGE discrepancy and I'm looking into possibilities. |
2014-01-10T16:43:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/10/jobs-unfrozen/#comment-20404 |
| Yes, it's all about making a buck. Speaking of that, you noticed I'm going through some "rebranding". I hope to make a few more bucks off of this, yes. I'd love to have a sponsor or two. Know anyone? :-) | 2014-01-09T16:00:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/08/answers-or-questions/#comment-20394 |
| I like football, so you won't get a complaint from me. :-) But yes, we are still deep in diversion all the time. I'm working on doing my part to make the important, real stuff more entertaining. It's hard ... | 2014-01-09T15:59:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/08/answers-or-questions/#comment-20393 |
| I appear to have survived the worst of it, thank you! Hope you are doing well, too! | 2014-01-09T15:58:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/08/answers-or-questions/#comment-20392 |
| I agree with that assessment. Self-promotion is the key in the world we live in. The various seminars and so on do not generally recruit speakers - they call for applications. That is the first mistake, IMHO. | 2014-01-09T15:57:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/08/answers-or-questions/#comment-20391 |
| I think it's working again. Don't know what happened, to be honest. But it is damned cold here! You're right, it's a tax on employment. And as such it probably does have to affect employment. But as taxes go it's pretty small and only affects a small number of employees, so the net cost is really not that large except in some service industries. And in many cases it's hard to hire fewer people because there is work that simply has to be done. So I think this is a rare tax on employment that doesn't have too many negative effects. However, it also doesn't fix everything. It's not enough by itself, as I noted. Also, I do agree that a jump this large at once is not going to necessarily scale from data on smaller increases. There is a lot more that has to be done - but this would be a start. And the possibility that it might actually get through the US House is at least interesting. |
2014-01-06T17:46:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/06/at-a-minimum/#comment-20377 |
| You are right, it seems strange to have a "cap" on the number of jobs the economy can support - and to have that cap fixed over many generations. It seems to be true, but I can't answer why it would be. I will think about this some more. I am managing and staying warm - hope you are, too! Keeping a car battery inside was a pretty good move on my part, it turns out. :-) |
2014-01-06T14:47:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20375 |
| Let's call it just a start, then. I don't see anything else on the plate for the time being, so if I was in congress I'd support it. | 2014-01-06T02:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/06/at-a-minimum/#comment-20373 |
| First of all, Forbes is changing - they are not the magazine they used to be. They are covering some very progressive issues and do support tackling income inequality. Now, as to living on $10 an hour - that is what's in front of us right now. I don't think that anything more than that will come up. As I pointed out, it only gets 10% of the poor out of poverty, which is hardly a big win. For the rest of it, including Glass-Steagall, I am totally with you on that. The Volcker Rule was a half-step that is now the law, again a half-measure. But it's not enough, no. We need a LOT more reform and a LOT more effort towards creating the economy that we can all live with. But I don't expect much from this congress at all. |
2014-01-06T02:30:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/06/at-a-minimum/#comment-20372 |
| A good point. There has been essentially no one looking out for working people on a rather consistent basis. That does include the Democrats, yes. I expect that to change, however. | 2014-01-06T01:02:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20368 |
| She'll have to introduce herself, then. | 2014-01-06T01:01:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20367 |
| You are right, that was bad wording on my part. I meant that the wealthy have probably never thought about the lives and welfare of working people, or the dangers of inequality. They certainly have thought a lot about workers as nothing more than a cost on a ledger and have developed prejudices against the tools that workers have to improve their own livelihood This mistake is bad enough that I will think about how I can easily change it with strikethrough. |
2014-01-03T17:46:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20357 |
| Well, whoever you are, given the number of names you post comments under (Smithson would make the most sense, given the Vegas IP) I can tell you that I don't bother with much of teevee and, if you ask people in their 20s they probably can't name the hosts of those shows either. Teevee is a dead industry, mostly. So there. I pick on CNN in part because i have watched a little of it (as any old person would) and what I've seen for analysis is frustratingly dumb. Not as dumb as a lot of other channels, from what I can see, but still rather dumb. It seems that the values of internet chatrooms have replaced journalism generally. Newspapers, which are really dying, are not as bad. They could use me, I think, but not as much. |
2014-01-02T21:00:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/01/heat-of-time-cold-of-midnight/#comment-20343 |
| Thanks! | 2014-01-02T01:00:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/01/heat-of-time-cold-of-midnight/#comment-20339 |
| Thank you! Although, I have my sights set on CNN more than the print publications. :-) | 2013-12-31T16:15:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/30/promises-to-keep/#comment-20326 |
| Thanks so much! | 2013-12-31T04:26:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/30/promises-to-keep/#comment-20319 |
| Thank you, and yes, an advanced degree would be helpful. But I've never been sure about what field I wanted such a degree to be in. Economics is obviously a calling, but there's so little work in that. A think tank would be heavenly, and I am working on a few locally. It may come together yet. The world does need people who can lead a discussion that will get us all through the woods together. I know that's my strength, but as you said a paying gig in media is very rare - and goes to people who are more forceful than contemplative. Our world favors declarations rather than questions, but there are a lot of questions that aren't being asked. |
2013-12-30T14:48:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/30/promises-to-keep/#comment-20317 |
| There is no excuse for terminating unemployment benefits. But there are jobs, it's just slow in coming. We need a new economy to replace the one that failed. You want to be a part of it? I'm sure you do have something to add. Let's make this next one a more equitable one that values workers. But it is going to be slow in coming, yes. We're not starting from scratch ... but we are. | 2013-12-28T21:02:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/#comment-20305 |
| I've decided I'm OK with being called that. Someone has to be optimistic! | 2013-12-28T00:04:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/#comment-20298 |
| Unemployment benefits were a lifeline to many people, yes, and when they run out there will be a big problem. What it means to the overall economy is harder to say, so I'm holding out on that. But it's a big deal to those who had to rely on it. And yes, perhaps it was a bit much to crow about 2M jobs when we needed more like 10M or more. |
2013-12-27T01:26:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/#comment-20291 |
| Thanks! | 2013-12-27T01:25:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/#comment-20290 |
| Thank you. The world is a much better place when we all speak from our hearts and do our best to inspire. And, of course, take some time to simply stop. | 2013-12-25T15:01:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/25/christmas-comes-when-we-stop/#comment-20266 |
| Amen. A great man who continues to inspire me. | 2013-12-25T00:18:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/02/pope-francis-teaches-another-way/#comment-20257 |
| :-) Merry Christmas, Anna! |
2013-12-25T00:18:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/25/christmas-comes-when-we-stop/#comment-20256 |
| Ah, yes, Frank. A more elegant time. | 2013-12-24T15:49:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/23/one-foot-in-front-of-the-other/#comment-20249 |
| Thank you! It's covered in the About page, but I don't mind repeating it here. In Don Quixote Sancho Panza is a dutiful servant who looks after the Don, hoping he'll regain the sanity he lost reading too many romance novels. When it's all over, Sancho is rewarded for his loyal service with a kingdom of his own - Barataria. It means "cheap lands" or the swamp. I'm convinced that the world is full of Don Quixotes who have lost their minds - not from romance, but from believing their own BS. I am Sancho Panza, dutifully standing by and waiting for sanity to return. All I ask is for my own swamp, my own Barataria, to play and paddle in. Also, I grew up in near the Florida Everglades and dearly love swamps. A childhood hero of mine was the "Gentleman Pirate" Jean Lafite, who called the swamps of Louisiana where he lived Barataria - a name that has stuck to this day. So I really am a creature of the murky swamps. To a genuine romantic the oppressive heat and smell is what life is made of! | 2013-12-24T01:26:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/how-you-can-help/#comment-20237 |
| People still don't believe me, though. :-) | 2013-12-23T22:31:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/23/one-foot-in-front-of-the-other/#comment-20233 |
| You're right, I should have mentioned the Fed tapering - it's huge news. And the stock market rose on it, too, which surprised me. Do I underestimate the possibility of another big crash? Perhaps, but I don't see it as very likely. If JPMorgan died tomorrow I don't think it would be a big deal other than the FDIC needing to take over Chase - which probably would take time and cause a lot of downtime. But even that would be a non-event in the end after maybe a week. The rest of their operations? I just don't think it's based in reality to start with and almost all of the money lost would come from the very rich, not so much from 401(k) accounts and pensions. |
2013-12-23T02:03:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/23/one-foot-in-front-of-the-other/#comment-20225 |
| Thanks. I think that there is actual news to report now that things are improving. In 2012 it was hard to say much since it seemed to just be the same thing every day. Also I think people crave this stuff, there's been too much fluff and garbage for too long. But I agree, more fundamental discussion has been making its way into the mainstream media. Competition? I hope one of these outlets will see the trends and hire me! :-) |
2013-12-23T02:01:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/23/one-foot-in-front-of-the-other/#comment-20224 |
| Really, I don't know who she is. Apparently I'm supposed to, buy that doesn't help anything. |
2013-12-23T00:44:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/20/confidence/#comment-20221 |
| No, I don't know who that is, sorry. Ha! | 2013-12-21T02:10:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/20/confidence/#comment-20209 |
| Excellent news! The National Retail Federation says that we are on track for the high end of holiday retail growth, +3.9%, so confidence has to be up. That's my thinking overall - but there really aren't any numbers to back it. These indices are a bit fudgy, I think. | 2013-12-20T22:44:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/20/confidence/#comment-20205 |
| It is hard to read, I should dig up one of just the consumer confidence numbers. The Michigan one is more public and I know is in the St Louis FRED database. It's been up just a tiny bit over the last year, I assure you. | 2013-12-20T22:43:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/20/confidence/#comment-20204 |
| Yes, it is the real "Reason for the Season". :-) | 2013-12-19T23:46:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/18/solstice-is-here/#comment-20195 |
| That's a very disrespectful thing to say because it minimizes violence, so responding forcefully is definitely called for. But yes, it's a bigger problem when the person who says it has power. So I'd say that empathy for power is meaningless and there is no reason why you can't go after that and make it clear that you are appalled by the statement. But keep in mind that many, many people agree with you. In Indiana's 2012 election 54% went for Romney and 50% went for Republican Mike Pence for Governor. But Mourdock, running for Senate, said something horrible about rape and lost with only 44% of the vote. That means that about 1 in 5 Republican voters said "No!" to that crap. That's what we have to keep our eyes on to purge positions of power of people like that. You're not alone in your horror - and speaking out respectfully and pointedly will win friends when it's that far over the line. There is still a basic decency in the world. Respect will generally get you respect back, even in disagreement. And if you don't get it, I say you have to continue to take the high road - while still insisting on better the whole time. But there is still room for empathy on issues that don't involve an endorsement of violence, I say. |
2013-12-16T03:40:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/16/empathy/#comment-20179 |
| More comments would be nice. I don't know why I have so few, frankly. A lot of people read and comment elsewhere, including facebook. Dunno | 2013-12-13T22:47:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/13/three-million-reads-one-purpose/#comment-20152 |
| "Today" is Friday - which starts at 6PM CST since Barataria is on UTC/GMT. :-) It should happen. | 2013-12-13T02:21:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/13/three-million-reads-one-purpose/#comment-20148 |
| Wait for the backlash ... :-) | 2013-12-12T04:23:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/11/romanticism-reborn/#comment-20129 |
| Outside of the NSA and so on, I think the world is very much moving away from authoritarianism as the wealth is spread around to developing nations. It will create an era of new hope as it sinks in. This is the flip side of greater wealth around the world - people with money demand more freedom. | 2013-12-12T02:22:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/11/romanticism-reborn/#comment-20123 |
| Thanks for the reblog! | 2013-12-10T05:33:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/09/new-rules-new-game/#comment-20087 |
| I agree, we should have had at least something like this in place all along. I wish we could bring back Glass-Steagall, which is full corporate separation, but I'm willing to see how this goes. It may work out. | 2013-12-09T20:46:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/09/new-rules-new-game/#comment-20070 |
| I am sure you are right. We have to see how it goes. | 2013-12-09T18:22:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/09/new-rules-new-game/#comment-20064 |
| It's still a tough corner, but we can see around it. It helps. Ukraine is at a crossroads, and I do think things will work for them. As you said, they have seen worse and they are tough. Once people see a brighter future together they can't be stopped! |
2013-12-08T20:48:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/06/a-good-week/#comment-20050 |
| Thanks! It's a matter of what next year might bring at this point. That is very unclear given the end of the Fed's QE and the next phase of budget nonsense. At some point we do need real leadership to get to the next level, and I don't see where it will come from. I have a lot of faith in Janet Yellen but the Fed can only do so much. | 2013-12-07T18:13:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/06/a-good-week/#comment-20048 |
| Yes, there was a big spike last year. It's hard to explain that, and it stands out as an anomaly. The trend this year has been positive and that is why job growth is accelerating now - and that's what counts to me. Small businesses do usually account for the largest share of growth, but it's been oversized through the last two years. Medium sized companies seem especially squeezed, which I honestly don't understand. |
2013-12-07T18:11:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/06/a-good-week/#comment-20047 |
| I haven't heard much about the 13 December deadline, but Rep Ryan and Sen Murphy are pretty capable. it's all about what they can sell to their own people. I do think something can happen, but this is a sequestration deadline and it's not as important as the looming need for a continuing resolution in January. | 2013-12-07T18:09:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/06/a-good-week/#comment-20046 |
| I will take that challenge. :-) This is a summary of a lot of things we've talked about over the last 6+ years, and as usual the purpose is to move it up to a new level. Some kind of real political platform is called for, yes. I think this is the kind of issue that Democrats could win with. | 2013-12-04T22:36:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/04/the-economy-of-people/#comment-20028 |
| Thanks. This is not about the church, not at all. | 2013-12-04T05:04:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/04/the-economy-of-people/#comment-20026 |
| They seem pretty nice so far. :-) | 2013-12-04T05:03:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/04/the-economy-of-people/#comment-20025 |
| That is a good way to look at it! Thanks. A great addition, as always! | 2013-12-02T03:16:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/02/pope-francis-teaches-another-way/#comment-20007 |
| It sure has, and that's why I wanted to add some context to it. If you read just a few excerpts from his work and interpret them through a conventional perspective the point is utterly missed. That's a terrible shame, IMHO. | 2013-12-02T02:51:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/02/pope-francis-teaches-another-way/#comment-20005 |
| If he has some magic left, he'll be allrigtht. :-) | 2013-11-30T16:05:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/29/the-fall-of-santa/#comment-19999 |
| Pretty much, yes. | 2013-11-29T04:25:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/29/the-fall-of-santa/#comment-19995 |
| I don' t know why. I went over the original proclamations and the timing became obvious to me. It's a great story, indeed. | 2013-11-27T21:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/27/thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-19990 |
| Don't thank God for me, he lets these things go pretty much these days. :-) | 2013-11-27T21:13:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/27/thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-19989 |
| That's the gist of everything I've read on it. The "loss leaders" suck people in to get them buying and that's about it. Some stores like Kmart aren't going to worry about the bottom line as much as the top line, as they have to impress Wall Street, but ... it's all crazy stuff. | 2013-11-26T15:14:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19980 |
| Ha! I'm trying to be more objective here. In the past I've been really down on Black Friday as something I ... well, to be honest, I didn't understand at all. Buying stuff as entertainment? But then some people said that it's a family venture right after Thanksgiving and I thought, "Anything a family does together is at least somewhat OK to me." As long as it leaves the holiday intact and doesn't start until the next day, who really cares? But ... well, there's an objective argument against Black Friday, and this year I presented it. Most shoppers don't realize "big savings" because the point is to manipulate emotions. And stores only do that because of an antiquated "rule of thumb" enforced by Wall Street / Media / et cetera. So that's where I am now. It really is something that has gotten totally out of hand - and now faces a backlash. Things are changing. And if it was up to me no one would buy a lot of stuff they don't need.. |
2013-11-25T23:36:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19976 |
| That doesn't sound like a compliment ... :-) Hey, people need jobs, and people need things to live. I can't be against retail in general because there is a place for it. The difficulty comes in how it is organized. Online sales really level the playing field between big box and small retailers (even artists making their own stuff to sell on Etsy!). Good holiday sales are a good thing, or at least can be. Black Friday? Feh. |
2013-11-25T16:24:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19973 |
| Yes, I think I will do more on that later. I have in the past, not sure how I want to update it. | 2013-11-25T04:13:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19971 |
| Thank you. And yes, nothing unless you need it - well, excepting a few presents here and there, but the more unique and artistic the more special they are, right? It is the psychology of this that bothers me, although I do cheer for retail and a general recovery. There's a balance in here that I think we are currently a long way away from. |
2013-11-25T01:51:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19969 |
| Now that's not very nice. Or is it? I can never tell. :-) The inefficiencies and nonsense of a world that automatically jumps at the commands of a distant Wall Street is not really that different from a centrally planned economy that has to respond to a distant political capitol. That system must be what we break down as we restructure. Fortunately, it is falling apart. You may not like the dispassionate way I report it, but the message doesn't have to go out to the people who already understand this. |
2013-11-25T01:42:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19968 |
| Yes, that is very true. I do think that this will slow down some as the population ages. Retirees just have less money to spend on junk, and they probably will not be interested in big crowds. | 2013-11-24T23:14:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/22/one-week-to-go/#comment-19962 |
| Write it down and we'll see. We have about a month to find the answer - it's better than my predictions for 2013 that are taking the whole year to play out! | 2013-11-24T23:13:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/22/one-week-to-go/#comment-19961 |
| I'm not trying to be optimistic, but I think that the news has been unreasonably negative lately. I also think it may be due to disinformation by conservatives who do seem to want to make Obama look bad at any cost, but I can't prove that. At any rate, getting out of the Depression is a long and difficult journey. People don't become optimistic overnight. Note that my prediction was that we would "exceed expectations" - I don't yet know if this will be a year with a record gain or not. And you are right that retailers are trying way, way too hard. That is a very bad sign - and a good counter to my optimism! But we'll see. |
2013-11-24T23:12:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/22/one-week-to-go/#comment-19960 |
| That could happen, yes, but banks are much less fragile than they were in 2008. I do worry about JP Morgan hitting the wall in the near future, given the cavalier way they operate. But the worst is clearly behind us, and I do think that anything like this would be an isolate incident - not a systemic problem. It is true that just about anything can happen in this climate, however. |
2013-11-21T16:05:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19945 |
| I think Monroe and Miller weren't married all that long. But if Kate Upton is really available then please introduce us. Thanks. :-) | 2013-11-21T01:59:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19943 |
| That is true - to be prophetic, make a lot of predictions, and only talk about the ones that came true. Also be as vague as possible (the Nostradamus method). I'm doing this like I did my predictions for 2013 - a regular check-in on progress. I thought I should do this now so that I can see where I'm at in early 2014 - especially after the holiday season. As for referring to my own stuff - I thought about a few outside links for this one, but I'm building arguments from smaller works. The outside justification is in the articles I reference. This is a summary - a statement of the only reasonable conclusion if you look at my previous work. I think it's OK to only ref your own work for a piece like this (as long as you only do it once in a while!). :-) I don't know Kate Upton ... should I? |
2013-11-20T20:40:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19941 |
| Thanks! I do think this is the situation we're in. Whether or not some of the big changes and news happen before that is another question, but I don't expect a lot to change in the next 3 years. There may be some of it, however, that comes sooner than 2017. | 2013-11-20T15:03:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19939 |
| By all means, please do! I'll stake whatever reputation I have on this. This is not a casual prediction - I am very sure of it. | 2013-11-20T03:44:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19936 |
| Yes, there is no real "shock" in this. But it's still hard on retirees, and we are about to have a lot more of 'em. | 2013-11-20T03:44:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/18/point-of-no-return/#comment-19935 |
| I think I have to agree with that. It does seem that with no good return on the horizon it's not something that anyone can count on. With low inflation the real return is still decent, but it's not much. Compound interest is just not a reality today. | 2013-11-19T17:19:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/18/point-of-no-return/#comment-19918 |
| If they do that, it will be towards the end of the year and only a quarter point. But it is possible, yes. I stand by my prediction of a "normal" Fed Funds Rate in the 2%+ range in 2017 or so - unless inflation does suddenly heat up. |
2013-11-18T03:01:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/18/point-of-no-return/#comment-19914 |
| OK, I'll accept that. Glad you used the word "amnesty" for people who are here. | 2013-11-15T18:28:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/#comment-19903 |
| Probably. :-) | 2013-11-15T18:27:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/#comment-19902 |
| We've talked about the participation rate here, and it is going down because the Baby Boomers are hitting retirement. it will continue to go down over the next decade as the retirements accelerate. Keep in mind that today's 63.4% participation rate is considerably higher than where it was from 1968 and before, which was always below 60%. We are returning to an economy more like that period in many ways. Like balancing the Federal budget, this is not something I am advocating immediately. But it will be necessary inside of the next decade, I can promise you. But I do agree with all of you that developing skills in our own workforce should be the top priority no matter what - jobs for Americans first. But watch as this starts to change after 2017. My point remains that managing this is going to be the hard part. But wages will rise when the wave of retirement hits and labor becomes scarce. Once we get through that wave in the early part of the business cycle there will definitely be a call for more foreign-born workers. |
2013-11-15T15:34:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/#comment-19898 |
| I am not talking about this economy, I'm talking about the next one. There will be a shortage of workers in the next decade because of retirement. More on the next comment. | 2013-11-15T15:25:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/#comment-19897 |
| I have come to really love Matt Smith's portrayal. Jon Pertwee was my favorite before, but Matt has passed him in my esteem - truly inspired and kinetic performances every time. How about companions, Rose? I was a Sara Jane Smith fan forever (goes with Pertwee) but I came to love Martha for a lot of reasons. Right now, I think Rory has to be my fave. Not only did he wait 2,000 years for his love he is the one companion who really took on the Doctor. In the Vampires of Venice episode he says, "You know what it's dangerous about you? It's not that you make people take risks, it's that you make them want to impress you. You make it so they don't want to let you down. You have no idea how dangerous you make people to themselves when you're around." Brilliant! |
2013-11-13T20:30:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/13/day-of-the-doctor/#comment-19878 |
| I don't know that they talk any faster than any other British show, but I think that Doctor Who is a show not crafted in any way for its American audience - so it doesn't try to slow it down or be careful with accents. 1.6M people is about how many watch Fox News, so you can estimate the importance from there. :-) I don't know how many people watch it around the world, but this episode will certainly be over 100M. The UK viewership is expected to be over 30M, or half the nation! :-) There will be similar results in Australia. |
2013-11-13T15:36:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/13/day-of-the-doctor/#comment-19876 |
| I will do the same. :-) I feel like I've been waiting for years for this, too. It's funny. | 2013-11-13T15:32:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/13/day-of-the-doctor/#comment-19875 |
| You aren't stalking me as effectively as you think. Both are teenagers. And no, I'm out of the baby biz. | 2013-11-12T04:03:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/11/jobs-debate-heats-up/#comment-19867 |
| That's not the debate, really, it's really over the "discouraged workers" and how they are being counted. There is also an ongoing debate about austerity, which is whether it's best to balance the budget now (which I don't support, even as I do support moving towards balance for 2017 and beyond). We should have had an infrastructure and jobs program in place from 2008 on, but didn't - and now we are feeling the effects of lost productivity on the order of 7% of our economy lost. It is hard to make that up. I didn't get into unemployment rates, but U6 (the broadest measure) crept up from 13.1% to 13.2% - probably not a significant change, but worth keeping our eyes on. |
2013-11-11T19:36:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/11/jobs-debate-heats-up/#comment-19863 |
| That is entirely possible. But they revised August and September up 60k, which is really quite a lot. | 2013-11-11T19:32:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/11/jobs-debate-heats-up/#comment-19862 |
| I did my part. :-) | 2013-11-11T19:32:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/11/jobs-debate-heats-up/#comment-19861 |
| I do think that is what this is about, yes. The lesson here, I think, can be for (drumroll) ... the Tea Party! People on the Left / Progressive side of politics are just as frustrated as they are. If people just put down the partisan labels I think we could have real progress against the big money people who have set up a system of socialized risk and regressive tax rates. But no, those labels are useful for dividing people. It's very sad. |
2013-11-09T20:36:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/#comment-19848 |
| We will have to say. I didn't write too much on the progressive politics because they will be under a lot of pressure. We won't know until the first big issue comes up requiring a lot of money. So I do partially agree with you here. Ha! :-) | 2013-11-09T20:33:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/#comment-19847 |
| The city has ALWAYS, from the beginning, been run by the corporate interests. They've had mayors with names like Pillsbury, etc. Even Hubert Humphrey was regularly accused of being a tool by the more progressive Farmer-Labor Party. This is a big change. | 2013-11-09T20:32:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/#comment-19846 |
| Thank you! Means a lot from you! | 2013-11-09T20:31:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/25/black-friday/#comment-19845 |
| Now that it's official, it's worth pointing out that outgoing Mayor RT Rybak is 57 years old (Boomer) and Mayor-Elect Betsy Hodges is 44 (GenX) for a similar drop of 13 years. | 2013-11-08T05:38:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/#comment-19838 |
| Are you saying I'm no fun at parties? Well, ... you're probably right. :-) I'll try to do something more fun. It's been a tough month here, I'm getting through it. | 2013-11-07T20:57:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19837 |
| Yes, to all of it. But we can buy tubular socks, those are great. :-) Won't take any wooden Escudos, Reals, or Yuan, you bet. :-) Thanks! |
2013-11-07T20:56:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19836 |
| That's what I hope it comes down to. You might like the $$$, but you have to report to voters. Elections are a good thing. | 2013-11-07T20:55:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19835 |
| Amen! Besides, do we really need to keep shopping all the time? | 2013-11-07T20:54:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19834 |
| Like them? I hardly know who they are. :-) | 2013-11-06T18:41:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19828 |
| You know why. Besides, we have a system that could accommodate most of that without a revolution. | 2013-11-05T22:13:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19817 |
| Yes, you and Anna have a good point here. This was anticipated, but it was shouted down by the "all growth is good" line. Some growth, apparently, is just enslavement. | 2013-11-05T15:03:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19815 |
| I have been digging into Kaldor's work to try to find how he came to the conclusion that the share of income that went to labor was a constant - I want to see how far back he went with it. People were indeed slaves as a whole until some level of industrialization came along. The struggle for common people to get their share does indeed go back to the very begining of this nation, I agree, and it's very much worth looking at. It goes along with my li'l Pa Ingalls analogy from a while back. Resiliency was a hallmark of people like that - but it isn't today. This is one of those things where I think the Tea Party does have a point, if it is a bit muddled by contemporary politics of the moment. |
2013-11-05T15:02:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19814 |
| YES! It has gone down pretty much as union leaders said it would, I have to admit. It's hard to be against free trade for the long haul, but right now we have a serious problem that's only getting worse. I don't have a good answer right now, no. That bugs me. | 2013-11-04T15:32:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19809 |
| Bingo! It is always the assumptions that you have to watch out for. And they are what are failing us here. Among economists there is a soft right-wing slant towards the "growth is always good" no matter who sees it first largely because of these "facts" and what flows naturally from them. How badly they are failing now is critical and something we need to understand in depth if the economists are going to make a case that they have a handle on this situation. | 2013-11-04T01:40:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19804 |
| Treasury. My sig would be on all the money. :-) Thank you! | 2013-11-02T02:09:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/01/fed-funds-future-foggy-fudgy/#comment-19793 |
| Yes, that is the point of all this. And I do think they will start tapering now that the worst of the government antics are over (for a while). | 2013-11-01T19:21:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/01/fed-funds-future-foggy-fudgy/#comment-19788 |
| It's not known if they use a formula like this, but if they do it is probably the more complex Taylor Rule with some data we don't really have. Things are kept pretty secret. What counts is that this simple Mankiw Rule is very close to what has happened historically. Why it's not predicting what they are doing now is a matter of policy. | 2013-11-01T19:20:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/01/fed-funds-future-foggy-fudgy/#comment-19787 |
| Footnote: The Taylor/Mankiw Rule turning negative is an excellent definition of a "Depression" versus an ordinary "Recession", IMHO. It's worth noting, however, that despite my insistence that the Managed Depression really started in 2001, this proposed definition didn't kick in until 2009. But ... c'mon, it's gotta count in here somewhere! | 2013-11-01T01:48:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/01/fed-funds-future-foggy-fudgy/#comment-19781 |
| Haha! Actually, a Republican President and a Democratic Congress would be pretty interesting about now. It seemed to work pretty well in the 1980s :-) | 2013-10-31T15:44:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/30/corporate-profits-a-bad-thing/#comment-19771 |
| Sequester was part of it, and not the largest part. The truth is that the economy is recovering and the deficit has, so far, been fixing itself. Sequester cuts along with very real tax hikes in 2013 closed the gap even further. I only hope we can be more intelligent about it in the future. And I do think that corporate tax reform with an eye towards getting tax receipts up just to the postwar average is a very easy way to raise most of what we need to close the gap without serious "austerity" effects. Sometime around 2017-2020 a balanced budget will be very important, so we can move to close the last 4% of GDP over 4 years, IMHO. Or, we can make deep cuts in the military, tax corporations a bit more, and spend some on infrastructure now - which is what I prefer. No matter what, I think reform is the real answer. |
2013-10-31T05:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/30/corporate-profits-a-bad-thing/#comment-19768 |
| Hey, you followed the link! :-) Yes, raising corporate taxes to the average level they have been since WWII would just about eliminate the deficit today. I haven't run the numbers in a while, but a year ago that raised $300B and it would be more with profits up. Against a deficit of about $465 it might also take a transaction tax of 0.2% on all stock trades (about $200B) to do it all the way, but it's a good idea all around. Thanks! | 2013-10-30T03:50:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/30/corporate-profits-a-bad-thing/#comment-19762 |
| I'll take that as a bet. :-) | 2013-10-30T02:04:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/30/corporate-profits-a-bad-thing/#comment-19760 |
| I believe that all science and technology starts with observation. You see how things work and go on from there. To me, it's the one thing they have in common. They diverge where you ask either "Why?" or "What can be done with this?" Perhaps the latter is more about invention than technology, but I think the principle is similar. Your examples also start with observation! Keeping your eyes open is the most important thing, IMHO. A curious mind can do just about anything, I say. At least, that's what I teach my kids. :-) |
2013-10-29T02:44:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/28/science-technology/#comment-19748 |
| It's hard to say exactly what our future is. We can expect the rest of the world to be right on top of us, sure, and we can't expect to rule every category. But we have areas we do very well in, especially medical tech. | 2013-10-28T18:26:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/28/science-technology/#comment-19746 |
| Everyone has their faves. :-) It all adds up quickly. The only expenditure I really can't justify is how much we spend on Defense - at $700B or so it's a huge number, way out of line. But I still would never say it should be zero. | 2013-10-28T15:00:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19744 |
| It is very hard to pull out all the effects at once, but the 19th century was indeed the time of tremendous upheaval. People starting living in cities far more than the countryside in Europe and the US. This was consolidated and expanded to the rest of the world in the 20th century. But it takes time for scientific advances to become technology, sometimes centuries. And to make them into standards enjoyed worldwide, well .... very long. |
2013-10-28T14:58:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/28/science-technology/#comment-19743 |
| First of all, the need for stimulus is diminishing as the economy picks up on its own. I believe that by 2017 there will be little need for a stimulus. I am in favor of "tapering" by both the Fed and the US government at this time. However, there is also a big difference between balancing the budget with cuts and with tax increases at this point. I do think that cuts in Defense are very much called for, but the rest of the budget can and should be balanced with a restructured tax system - primarily with corporate taxes. I do think that keeping bond rates low is a priority, and the best way to do that is to not keep asking for more money. That's the problem we're in. Yes, I would still support a lot of spending on infrastructure - but I think it should be paid for by tax increases. And if it takes a lot of pork to get a budget passed so be it - the poorest states right now are in the South and have elected a lot of the Republican leadership (oddly enough). Yes, let's get them some jobs and repair the infrastructure - but we can pay for it with corporate taxes and not compete in the bond market. Does this make sense? |
2013-10-28T14:56:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19742 |
| I am generally in favor of higher taxes to meet balance the budget, yes, as I don't want austerity. However, cutting the military. | 2013-10-27T23:09:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19726 |
| Yes, you are right. China and Japan combined are $2.4T, I grabbed that from another article without reading carefully. My mistake. | 2013-10-26T18:55:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/16/appalling-behavior/#comment-19723 |
| Yes, it makes little sense to me. The "continuing resolution" is really more or less how they do everything - it all continues unless someone pulls the funding. | 2013-10-25T21:03:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19719 |
| Democratic Congress in 2014? :-) | 2013-10-25T21:03:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19718 |
| Yes, I have a feeling it's what he'd be remembered for. | 2013-10-25T21:02:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19717 |
| You know, you're right - people need to know that the fighting did produce something of value. I've been caught up in the recent fight, which was rather pointless, and that's not fair. Most of what happened was sequestration - a dumb way to cut, but it happened. No one is going after the military, no. The Dems seem to be pretty shy about it, probably because they don't want to look "soft". It's an old problem. But there is a lot that can be cut. One old piece i forgot to include in this piece was the solid $500B per year in corporate and stock trade taxes I think we could realize. I would hope that the corporate tax increases came primarily from reform and simplification. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/taxing-solutions/ I think that is a good way to go for tax increases that should make up at least half of the $642B gap we have to close. I could see $320B in corporate and personal tax increases without a lot of real pain and about as much in spending cuts, about $200B of that coming from the military - starting with closing bases in Europe (estimated to be about $80B a year!). In 2 years we could have a balanced budget if we really want to, it's not that hard. |
2013-10-25T14:38:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19713 |
| It is possible. Financial reporters are pretty biased in favor of anything that makes the stock market more interesting (ie, more lucrative). I will think about this. There is a lot more room for opinion in financial reporting - if anything, it is encouraged in many places. | 2013-10-24T12:00:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19702 |
| No problem, you asked for something I have been thinking about doing lately ... I really want to put together a short eBook on this stuff so that it's in a logical order (and I can make a few bucks). :-) | 2013-10-24T11:57:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19701 |
| I'll give that an "Amen". I would like to do something like that again, yes. | 2013-10-23T21:31:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19698 |
| This is what I got for you in a short time: Ford went through a restructuring to be a more global company and streamline its supply chain: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124199912671905001 Gap responded to weak sales by moving both online and more global at the same time: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2012/10/16/gap-undergoes-major-restructuring.html?page=all Kodak hopes to emerge from BK as a research and printing company, which I really don't get, but whatever: http://www.semissourian.com/story/2001667.html Finally, this thing from Deloitte on their services to help restructuring shows what a trend it is: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/us/6bdb27512a4fc210VgnVCM1000001a56f00aRCRD.htm I don't have time to take up your challenge right now, but this has a lot to do with why big companies aren't hiring right now - many are restructuring internally and working out what they need. But profits are up, so as they discover what works I believe they will hire more (note: that should have started by now, so my timing is not good). But part of the trend is toward contracting out a lot of stuff, which is why more than 40% of the new jobs created since the low point in 2010 are at companies of less than 20 employees. Our whole idea of a "corporation" is changing - and I want to find a good article on that (later). |
2013-10-23T21:30:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19697 |
| I should always mention the broader measure of under/unemployment, U6, when I discuss the jobs reports. Details as to what it means compared to the "headline" unemployment number, U3, can be found here. The headline number ticked down in September from 7.3% to 7.2%, which is a good change from Sept 2012's 7.8%. But we can't say that it came from "discouraged workers" leaving the labor force (the fancy term for what you described). The broadest measure, U6, went from 13.7% in August to 13.6% in September, a good improvement over Sept 2012's 14.7%. That means that taking into account the increase in the labor force (it will keep growing for another few years until Boomers start to retire in large numbers) there was a net gain of 1.5M more people working full time. That's not bad - even if we really do need a lot more than that. It's good to watch the "alternative measures" the BLS puts out. They don't get anywhere near enough cred for U6: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm | 2013-10-23T16:21:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19694 |
| Yes, a little bragging. :-) But mostly that this is going to change how we talk about jobs in the future, and the press is apparently going to be less reliant on the BLS report. That's a good thing, but what is going to replace it? I hope they do more reporting on their own - that's something I can't do from here. Interviews with employers and employees, things like that. Perhaps some groups will come up with their own surveys or rely more on ADP or Challenger Gray & Christmas who do their own reports. Yes, I did complain a lot when the Fed extended their bond buying program and the weak August jobs report was given as a reason - that was totally uncalled for. But that was different - Bernanke himself made no reference to it and even said that jobs were moving ahead about as well as they could expect. |
2013-10-23T14:32:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19692 |
| Yes, Mexico can do it. The more I think about Anna's comment that it's all a plot to stop immigration by ruingin our economy the more it makes sense. Mexico does seem to have its act together just when we look pretty stupid. | 2013-10-22T22:40:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19681 |
| I am in favor of different teas. My favorites are Twinings Prince of Wales (really a Qimon) and Tie Guan Yin, the Iron Goddess of Mercy. But if you're springing for a shipment of loose tea from Twinings, be sure to get some of their Christmas Tea - really good. :-) | 2013-10-22T22:38:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/21/holiday-shopping/#comment-19680 |
| Yes on all counts. However, large or small, this is a huge part of the economy and a good holiday season is what's left to frost the cake that is the good set of stats we've had all year. Assuming, of course, that the jobs, real estate, and consumer confidence data continue to look good after we see the effects of the shutdown. I think they will. | 2013-10-22T03:41:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/21/holiday-shopping/#comment-19674 |
| I wanted to use this as a baseline before we had any data - it seemed as though I couldn't wait until too close to Halloween this year. But yes, I want the September jobs report at least before I'll have any idea at all. I'll come back to this in a month to see where it seems to be heading. Remember, last year at this time we were dealing with Hurricane Sandy. This really should b e a better year without a lot of push. |
2013-10-22T03:40:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/21/holiday-shopping/#comment-19673 |
| Between 15 Jan and March, yes, we will be back - with bigger sequestration on the table, too. I have no predictions now given that this is very fluid. I don't think anything like this will go down, but it's up to the saner Dems and Repubs to make something like a deal happen in the meantime - and, well, they aren't all that sane. Let's see if this scared them into it. | 2013-10-21T02:36:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19668 |
| Mostly, that is what matters, yes. | 2013-10-21T02:34:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19667 |
| Wasn't that fun? Good call on trashing the economy, I'll have to steal that from you! :-) | 2013-10-21T02:33:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19666 |
| I think you are right. There are a lot of loose stories but very few good studies released. It makes me wonder a lot. | 2013-10-21T02:32:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19665 |
| They may, we'll see. This was brutal. | 2013-10-17T23:03:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/16/appalling-behavior/#comment-19649 |
| I have nothing more to say. The underlying problems, some of which were identified here, remain. Nothing really happened, no. | 2013-10-17T23:03:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/16/appalling-behavior/#comment-19648 |
| Yes, let's move on. Whitman is good, thanks. :-) | 2013-10-17T23:02:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/16/appalling-behavior/#comment-19647 |
| I would be much happier if people didn't talk about "taking out" people on my blog. Thanks. I realize that I upped the ante a bit by saying that they have a gun pointed at us, and I do mean that. But pointing a gun at a particular person seems like a step further. |
2013-10-14T21:23:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19618 |
| I will admit that the President does not have an agenda together and that this is a serious problem. However - the House had many opportunities to pass an actual budget and they did not - and here we are in crisis mode. And one man determines what happens? That's ludicrous. | 2013-10-14T13:30:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19615 |
| No, I think this is a revolt against big business and Wall Street, too. They can't be happy with the threat of default and this action only shows how hard the position is. We have only a few days before this gets very bad, and that is not good for anyone with a lot of money. | 2013-10-14T02:52:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19604 |
| I can't think of anything else to call it. A default would be a terrible disaster and to even threaten it is utterly irresponsible. If you don't like calling this for what it is then please go away. | 2013-10-14T02:45:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19602 |
| Thanks! | 2013-10-14T02:02:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/11/dia-de-la-raza-2/#comment-19599 |
| Thanks! Yes, I had to do something else. Besides, it's a good idea for a holiday! | 2013-10-14T02:02:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/11/dia-de-la-raza-2/#comment-19598 |
| That is correct, they kept the power with Cantor. This is a bit of a coup for the Tea Party by any measure. And why didn't this story get out? I don't know, but I'm also curious how they got this through the House in the first place. | 2013-10-14T02:02:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19597 |
| You know that I find far more fault with Republicans and do not like the "false equivalency" of blaming both parties for the creation of this situation. However, I will agree that both are constantly hardening their positions and digging in more and more - which is not at all helpful. They really do not trust each other at all, which suggests that no negotiations would ever work. | 2013-10-10T21:20:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19577 |
| I fully agree that Ryan is showing excellent leadership and is bringing up important issues that do have to be dealt with. However, I still think that passing an actual budget would be far, far better as a way to address this. | 2013-10-10T21:18:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19576 |
| Panic or exasperation? :-) | 2013-10-10T21:17:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19575 |
| It would be interesting if congress turned on the money people of the US, right? Especially if it came from the Republicans / Tea Party first. | 2013-10-10T21:17:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19574 |
| And the tactic employed (not a strategy, as it lacked an endgame) backfired horribly: http://www.gallup.com/poll/165317/republican-party-favorability-sinks-record-low.aspx | 2013-10-10T21:16:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19573 |
| I do not mind a major disagreement fought out in the open. I do mind it when everything is turned into a crisis, especially the debt ceiling crisis which would be a real catastrophe. And it's especially difficult when the leader of the House side, Boehner, said repeatedly that he didn't think such brinksmanship was appropriate. Things are changing, more on that below, but the way this started was not a good way to conduct a healthy fight which the nation does indeed need, IMHO. |
2013-10-10T21:14:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19572 |
| Bingo. It's a point worth thinking about. Not having info is reason for the markets to start panicking by itself. | 2013-10-08T21:44:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/07/the-tough-quarter-starts/#comment-19558 |
| From Jan 2008 (peak) to Jan 2010 (trough) we lost 8.8M jobs. We have made up 7.1M of them since then. In 2013 so far we have gained 1.47M, so we are running about 2M gain per year and should be back at the level we were before by June 2014. However, it does pick up in 4Q. Last year at this time we only had 1.32M gained, but picked up a full 632k in 4Q12. So there is always reason to hope - barring, of course, an extended shutdown or even worse a default. The Feds can only screw up a good thing at this point. We are getting out of the woods, if slowly. Keep in mind that the workforce is still expanding (and should until 2017 when more Boomers retire) so we do need 5-6M more jobs from where we are now, meaning full employment is not likely until that retirement wave hits at this rate. |
2013-10-07T13:52:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/07/the-tough-quarter-starts/#comment-19555 |
| That's really all I care about, too. The rest is a game - although the shutdown does hurt a lot of people and is terribly inconvenient to just about everyone. | 2013-10-04T21:03:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19544 |
| This isn't about me, and I see no reason why my personal life should be a part of this discussion. It borders on stalking, and it frankly says more about you than me in the end. I will say that personally I don't care the slightest bit where an interesting argument comes from, whether it's Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Irving Fisher, or Karl Marx. Going after the person seems very lazy at worst and pointless at best. So if you really want to go after me, by all means do. But you only weakens your arguments. I'd much rather that everyone, even those I don't agree with, have the strongest arguments possible. |
2013-10-04T21:02:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19543 |
| This is why I reposted the old piece on Opportunity Costs, and y'all are right where I have been on this topic. We know there is an infrastructure deficit, for example, which is the fancy way of saying bridges are falling down. Rather than pay people unemployment bennies, why not spend a little more and pay them to fix things? It seems reasonable to me in a depression, but we haven't made that choice on a basis big enough to affect either the unemployment rate or the net deficit in infrastructure. So yes, we have tough choices to make and we simply aren't doing them. Note that I don't think Congress should ever do this in a vacuum, but should get the discussion going and really engage the public. The economy is changing rapidly and people need to be connected to what's going on, IMHO. | 2013-10-04T20:57:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19542 |
| $700B per year on just the Defense Department, not including Homeland Security and so on, is a lot of money. It's also about 40% of the planet's total expenditure on defense, about 6X our nearest competitor (China, interestingly enough). So I would say there has to be some room to give. Before we cut the cruise missiles, how about we have a major consolidation of European bases? I've seen estimates that this alone could save up to $50B a year, although I can't vouch for the accuracy of that (and it seems high). But yes, given that we have 10 of the planet's 20 aircraft carriers (all but 4 of which are operated by our allies, the others being Brazil, Russia, India, and China interestingly enough) and 20 B-2 bombers that have to be about an aircraft carrier equivalent except they can strike anywhere without any warning, there have to be more places to trim without actually harming our proper defense. That's all another good fight that we should be having, but aren't. I'd love to hear someone defend why we spend all this and have all this, I really would. |
2013-10-04T20:48:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19541 |
| It's hardly a secret of any kind. And given that Medicare hits the wall between 2020-24 there is going to have to be a serious reduction or increase in allocated funding, neither of which are good. So yes, the Dems do have a lot to give on the budget generally and that fight would be a very good one to have. Once again, the Simpson-Bowles framework seems to me the only logical way to approach that, but ... we are so far from even starting that discussion at this point. |
2013-10-04T20:40:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19540 |
| They may give up something token. One thing under consideration is the Medical Device Tax, which was never all that important anyway. But the revenue would have to be made up somewhere else should that happen. At least it will be a budgetary kind of discussion, so it's far less asymmetric and could indeed be he subject of bargaining. | 2013-10-04T20:37:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19539 |
| Let me put it this way, then - do you disagree that threatening a default is unique in post Civil War US politics? Because that is where I am coming from, and the Atlantic article quoted above put it better than I did. See next column on how at least some Republicans see this fight and how it will end. I think we're seeing a lot of sanity rise to this situation - and not from my party. | 2013-10-03T23:09:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19531 |
| I think this sums up the situation very succinctly: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/09/your-false-equivalence-guide-to-the-days-ahead/280062/ "The debt-ceiling vote, of course, is not about future spending decisions. It is about whether to cover expenditures the Congress has already authorized. There is no sane reason for subjecting this to a repeated vote. And there is no precedent for serious threats not to honor federal debt -- as opposed to symbolic anti-Administration protest votes, which both parties have cast over the years. Nor for demanding the reversal of major legislation as a condition for routine government operations. In case the point is not clear yet: there is no post-Civil War precedent for what the House GOP is doing now. It is radical, and dangerous for the economy and our process of government, and its departure from past political disagreements can't be buffed away or ignored. If someone can think of a precedent after the era of John C. Calhoun, shown above in Mathew Brady's famous portrait, let me know." |
2013-10-03T21:53:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19529 |
| Pish-tosh. Everyone has the right to speak their mind, and to some extent we have an obligation to, IMHO. But that's very different from financial armageddon - the threshold for that should be set very, very high IMHO. | 2013-10-03T21:27:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19528 |
| You are correct in that Obama won by +5% and the House elections overall went +2%, meaning that at least 3% of all voters split their ticket. That may not sound like much, but at the margins in a close election it does make a difference - and I think that it is done very deliberately. These are probably people who fear one party having too much power to force their agenda through entirely. I think that makes a lot of sense. But it would be good to find those people and really nail it down, you're right. It probably would be really fun! |
2013-10-03T21:26:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19527 |
| The age of "Rockefeller Republicans" is very long gone, but there are still many Republicans who are quite conservative yet decent and honorable. I don't have to agree with everyone - that'd be boring - but it is important that our government generally figure out how to move forward. I am also concerned about Boehner's "leadership" given that he is doing something he said was wrong just a short time ago, and probably doing it just to hold his position of power. | 2013-10-03T21:22:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19526 |
| Hmmm ... don't recall mentioning oligarchs or even rich people .... just people who ideologically disagree with me for any number of reasons. | 2013-10-03T21:19:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19525 |
| And at least one Republican thinks I'm too "mean", apparently. That seems to me like I hit the middle about right, offhand. Or I'm just way out of touch, which is also possible. :-) | 2013-10-03T21:18:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19524 |
| Interesting that you say that this is insulting, but don't say why. Until you do, I'll just assume you are being satirical - especially given how you go on about "feelings" so often. As for how many liberals/lefties behave - what makes you think I'll back what others have to say? I usually don't unless they are trying to advance cooperation, policy, or perspective. Most of what passes for campaign rhetoric is actually counter-productive because it turns the truly undecided off altogether. |
2013-10-03T21:17:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19523 |
| Standing up for what you believe in and threatening to destroy the global financial system are two very different things. | 2013-10-03T21:13:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19522 |
| Off topic, but I'll respond. And I'll assume that you are being sarcastic, yet I'll treat it seriously. Yes, "work sharing" is the most obvious way to get through this. If everyone worked 32 hours a week we'd have no unemployment right now. The problem, of course, is that we don't have an industrial society anymore where most people make their wages at a job defined by a big company. It was easy to define "time and a half" at 40 hours as a penalty back in the 1930s, but much more difficult today. A truly flexible labor force should be everyone's goal, IMHO, but there are so many barriers to this. Training is the most obvious, and the way we continue to tie health care to employment doesn't help one bit. But we can move that direction and free up labor substantially - giving it a bit more of an edge than it has now. I'm all in favor of that. |
2013-10-02T00:17:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/30/opportunity-costs/#comment-19505 |
| It's been since 2010 for a real budget. It's very sad. No one really knows what is being spent at this point, either. If you want to trim it the first thing to do is to actually LOOK at it. | 2013-10-02T00:13:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/30/opportunity-costs/#comment-19504 |
| I don't think they thought it through that much. Yes, many of them are really Libertarian anarchists at heart. But most of them are just acting out of impulse, I think. | 2013-10-02T00:12:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/30/opportunity-costs/#comment-19503 |
| That is one conclusion, yes, and I won't say it is invalid. But to say "capitalism is dead" is to say we have to re-invent nearly everything, and I don't think very many people are ready for that - nor do I think we'll come close to getting things right, especially given the history of trying. Interdependence does mean we'll all have to be playing by at least similar rules, and we're nowhere near that right now. Forcing those rules from above doesn't seem to work very well, for what I think are obvious reasons, so we'll have to work it out. And to defend Pa Ingalls a bit, he did try to be understanding of the natives, at least as his daughter wrote about him. I think it was probably genuine, too. People had enough to worry about just surviving so why go causing trouble? Life was pretty miserable, getting along would have been rather important. Granted a lot of people made a living screwing over the natives, but I think the average Indian Agent kept moving and never had to deal with the consequences of their actions. |
2013-09-27T04:17:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/27/resiliency-vs-interdependence/#comment-19479 |
| Very little of what he owned came from cities. And "holy" is your word - I'm not from here and I know perfectly well I'd never survive in his world. I'm quite thankful to be in this one. But this is not about me and I'd prefer you not try to make it that way. | 2013-09-27T03:01:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/27/resiliency-vs-interdependence/#comment-19477 |
| What are you quoting? I do agree with it, all around. And it's worth noting that the New Deal was done with a deficit that never exceeded 5% of GDP - vs up to 10% in this Managed Depression. We've really tried to do everything with monetary policy this time 'round. | 2013-09-26T02:48:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19470 |
| I am going to stay on this ,and I am more convinced that we are going to hit 2017 running than ever. If the growth in jobs picks up over 200k per month we will be very much onto something. | 2013-09-26T02:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19469 |
| It really rankles you, doesn't it? Don't worry, I'm starting to think this will fizzle quickly. We can get back to the macroeconomics. :-) | 2013-09-26T02:45:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19468 |
| There is much more to it, but I see this coming down to a relative balance between capital and labor. When there are a lot of people in the job market, supply and demand naturally puts them a relative disadvantage. That's not everything going on, but it's a good part of it, I think. People who focus on inequality tend to move their thinking into tax law quickly. They should look at employment law and market trends just as easily, IMHO. |
2013-09-26T02:44:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19467 |
| Yes, the cyclical part is both very mysterious and very understandable. It does seem to be human nature that we get caught up in waves and do things that are stupid - on but the greed and fear ends of the scale. So the waves continue. There's really no set in stone reason for business cycles, but they are very, very real. It does seem to be nothing more than human nature and it goes against any kind of "rational assumption" or steady-state model. | 2013-09-26T02:42:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19466 |
| Wow - this is out of left field a bit, but I like the challenge. I will think about it. Comments from anyone else? | 2013-09-25T05:03:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19457 |
| Thank you! | 2013-09-23T21:59:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19436 |
| It was a big win, but the Free Democrats are possibly out of the Bundestag. A grand coalition with Social Democrats appears to be in the works, which will be interesting - the last time they had one was pre Euro crises. | 2013-09-23T21:58:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19435 |
| I'll take your perspective on this - you are right, it's not like we have open violence! As for debt, I am very cautious about taking on more, yes. I think we have to be very prudent and careful - and I do support what infrastructure spending has gotten through Congress so far. But - bad debt is bad debt, and there is no point in letting it linger around. We know there are trillions in loans that will never be repaid, so why not clear them now? That's the Jubilee. And while we're at it, let's be very careful about any new debt taken on . If I gave you the impression I was shocked by debt holders getting back a fraction, I didn't express my position adequately. I am appalled by how write-downs of up to 80% on Greek bonds are called a "haircut" - it's a default, not a restructuring. It's the Orwellian nature of the term meaning "a little off the top" that bothers me - 80% is not a "haircut". I also oppose a massive, willy-nilly stimulus because in a global economy the benefits will not stay here in the US. The Great Convergence, as I am starting to call it, between developed and developing world economies was financed largely by the carry trade - borrowing in US Dollars at 0% and loaning it to BRIC nations. We can't use the old-fashioned concept of Keynsianism because we don't have a closed economy anymore. I think I need to write about this more explicitly. It is an important concept. |
2013-09-23T21:57:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19434 |
| It is worth saying this again and again - it's not like the House did THEIR part of the job and propose an actual budget. We haven't had one since the Republicans took over and that is just sick. | 2013-09-23T21:50:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19433 |
| Opposition to Obamacare is simply bizarre in the extreme. A shutdown will be very painful and will hurt Repubs terribly - as will their opposition to Obamacare once people get into it and realize how it works. This is all so very crazy - and suicidal. | 2013-09-23T21:49:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19432 |
| I think you are right - and I think this tidbit tells the story: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/09/22/palin-demands-fox-news-host-turn-over-the-gop-cannibals-who-are-trying-to-trash-cruz/ Republicans are far from united on this, for some very good reasons. There isn't anything for them to win if you look at it objectively. So I do hope you are right and they don't do anything stupid. If they do, it's clearly not in their best interests anyway. |
2013-09-23T21:47:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19431 |
| They really don't, and it's appalling. I feel like we'll never get through this until people understand the situation better - and that is not going to happen with today's lazy, stupid, and generally useless financial press. | 2013-09-21T19:39:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19416 |
| My main point here is that coverage of financial and economic issues is horrible, but I wanted to say more than just that. Bernanke laid out the whole logic and what was reported was "we had a weak jobs report." The most powerful man in the world and no one listens to him? We've come a long way since Alan Greenspan ... | 2013-09-21T19:38:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19415 |
| Idiot is OK. :-) | 2013-09-21T19:37:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19414 |
| Apparently not. I am going to take this personally and assume that they are doing the one thing then knew that could wreck my holiday season prediction. | 2013-09-21T19:36:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19413 |
| I have never been happy that QE3 took the form of buying mortgage backed bonds, but the logic appears to be that the Fed wanted to have as much direct influence on jobs and the incomes of ordinary people as possible. So while I agree that inflating a new housing bubble is a bad idea, there was a reason for doing this in the first place. Having said that, this is why I proposed a Jubilee to cancel debt as a better alternative. I am not worried about the emerging nations at all - they got where they did on cheap credit and they will continue to have a lot going for them. As we see in Brazil they have their own work cut out for them in internal reforms (listening, China? Russia?) and it's up to them to get to that sooner rather than later if they want more growth, IMHO. I can only hope that the government starts to do its job. How long have we been waiting? |
2013-09-21T19:35:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19412 |
| I think I agree, but we also have to point out that things are recovering and there is money to do something about this problem - if we can figure out how to spend it effectively. | 2013-09-19T23:47:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/18/poverty-persists/#comment-19402 |
| Sorry about the problem - wordpress does that. I am not backing down on my prediction - I wanted to make it first and make it clearly. The next post deals with the one thing that could screw it all up - in Bernanke's words, not mine. A good Christmas season would help the persistent poverty, I think, but it's important to know going in what we are dealing with here. People are being very much left behind. |
2013-09-19T23:46:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/18/poverty-persists/#comment-19401 |
| You may well be right. I want to find out more about the 15% that are stuck in what appears to be a permanent underclass. It's not surprising that some people are being left behind in this ragged restructuring, but why? Asking that question leads to good policy. | 2013-09-19T23:44:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/18/poverty-persists/#comment-19400 |
| My thesis is that it was managed, if badly, until 2008. From then on they have been doing their best - and it could have been a LOT worse than -9M+ jobs. No, there is nothing to be happy about here, but the restructuring is occurring and that is a good thing. | 2013-09-17T01:49:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/16/5-years-after-lehman/#comment-19380 |
| No, I think things will be recovering nicely by 2017 - except in places where there is lingering youth unemployment like Greece and Spain. They will be slow to pull out of this. Baratarianism? I can only hope. What we need more than anything else is a solid dose of basic Government 101, as I wrote about a little while ago. It's the exact opposite of sexy, like me, but it seems to work. Black Friday? Look, I'm really OK with it as a concept. Families going out to hang at the mall or whatever is a lot of fun and I hope people can do it up well. A huge panic mob out for blood and/or money is not good, and I will NOT abide by crowding out Thanksgiving. But hey, a lot of people get together and have a family outing the day after and that is cool. But can't we all shop local when we do it? :-) |
2013-09-17T01:47:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/16/5-years-after-lehman/#comment-19379 |
| That is very poetic and I hope you don't mind if I steal it. You are quite correct - the "management" as we have come to know what defines this depression has been to inject cash at the top, not where it does the most good. There are many reasons for this, but the main one is that the agency really on the ball, the Federal Reserve, can't do much else. It's really sad when the Fed is looking out for the little guy and the government is looking out for the rich, but we live in a really effed up world. |
2013-09-17T01:43:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/16/5-years-after-lehman/#comment-19378 |
| There were many signs, and Bear, Stearns was only the worst of them. The first time the LIBOR really broke was in January of 2008, and American Home Mortgage filed for BK in August of 2007 - more than a year earlier. It was a time of panic generally, and I wrote about it then: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/08/13/stupid-money/ | 2013-09-17T01:36:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/16/5-years-after-lehman/#comment-19377 |
| Ha! I am taking a stand, the tea leaves point to a good holiday season and I'll go with that. It does seem a bit premature, yes, but there is every reason to believe this will happen. The jobs are coming back, if still slowly. What matters is if they peak above 200k gained per month, which was about as good as it got in 2006. We're still waiting to hit that level reliably (though we did get it for a while in 2011). | 2013-09-13T19:27:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/13/how-good-will-it-be/#comment-19351 |
| OK - let's count up the ways you are wrong. We covered the part-time job myth a short time ago. It's not a "recovery", it's a "restructuring", which is a very different thing. QE, I'll give you. And no, the real unemployment rate is 13.7% (U6) as we discussed. And no, I have no time for left/right. Sorry, but if you're going to presume things about me you might want to do a wee bit of research. | 2013-09-13T04:42:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/13/how-good-will-it-be/#comment-19347 |
| I think that for all their gains, China has a real cap on its potential. For one thing, all the people crowded into those polluted cities from their previous lives in the countryside cannot be particularly happy. I don't know what it takes to get a real rebellion in the works in China, but they have to be pretty close to something happening. That leaves aside basic freedoms - which we can always hope people develop an appetite for. They do want to take us on, and Syria is probably just an example of them testing their muscle safely behind Russia's cover. But I doubt they have as much as they want to given their ambitions. I can see them realistically collapsing back inward to take care of their own problems soon. |
2013-09-13T00:14:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19345 |
| It's despicable. There's no reason Russia couldn't broker a peace and remain a friend to whatever government winds up in power. But ... no ... | 2013-09-12T20:26:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19337 |
| I am very much in favor of us assisting in any way we can, but I am also sure we can't make Syria whole by ourselves. I agree that Putin will have a role, and I'm pretty sure the Arab League will have to as well. The refugee crisis will have to be managed by the UN for years to come even if there is a peace tomorrow. We have done well for the nations that were once our enemies, at least in the past. But while our ability to destroy is utterly unmatched by a wide margin, our ability to put things back has reasonable limits. If the Syrian people still want to fight it could be very hard to stop it. But yes, let's talk about putting an end to this and what that will really take. There has been far too much suffering already. |
2013-09-12T20:24:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19336 |
| I think there may be a plan to ease the suffering of Syrians, but it may be very hard to implement. I am very much in favor of anything we can do to put an end to this. Anyone who says that this is not in our national interest is full of crap - this is currently destabilizing the entire region and will only get worse. | 2013-09-12T20:21:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19334 |
| I do not think the use of force was called for in 2003 against Iraq, but that's only the biggest use of it. Under Clinton we sent cruise missiles to a lot of places, including a Sudanese pharmaceutical factory that we suspected, wrong, of being an explosives works. I believe we have gotten much better since Iraq, but the temptation to use force is going to remain. | 2013-09-12T20:19:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19333 |
| Russia and China have behaved inexcusably, IMHO. They are clearly just opposing the US - even when it's clearly about doing the right thing. | 2013-09-12T20:17:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19332 |
| Another footnote: The Kerry-Lavrov deal on Syria giving up chemical weapons has been floating around for months. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/world/middleeast/Syria-An-Unlikely-Evolution.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 This was not just an offhand remark. | 2013-09-12T05:11:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19323 |
| Footnote: Meanwhile, Obama prepares for war. The full text of his remarks. | 2013-09-11T01:56:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19318 |
| I think we all win this one, if it works out. See next post. | 2013-09-11T01:00:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19317 |
| Yes, just about everything that we consume in the Twin Cities goes through there. It's amazing. And that is why the St Paul Saints have to move - to expand that yard. | 2013-09-11T00:59:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19316 |
| I do wonder how well they are bolted down, yes. They are replacing the old semis very rapidly. | 2013-09-11T00:58:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19315 |
| Automation is very much a real thing that will continue to advance. We may use it to make more things in the US and not rely on hand labor, so it does cut both ways. But it implies that worker salaries should be higher and/or workweeks should be shorter to share the benefits across all of society - either that, or we have to consume more. I believe very strongly that once the Baby Boomers exit the workforce there will be upward pressure on wages and we will see a greater sharing of the benefits - mostly through social security payments. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/ | 2013-09-11T00:56:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19314 |
| Globalism as we know it simply would not have happened without the TEU, for better or worse. My Dad was over in Hong Kong when China first opened up in 1974, and in just 40 years the nation was transformed by it. That could not have happened without the ready made infrastructure of these containers, which came along at about the same time. | 2013-09-11T00:53:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19313 |
| I was surprised to find that new jobs are full time, but as I thought about it not so much. The overhead per employee is so high that it often pays to actually plan for overtime in your workforce, so yeah. | 2013-09-10T02:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19304 |
| A quick comment. Naturally, the DJIA threatened to dive after I posted it was up, and naturally the official BLS number came in pretty low - but I ignore that because it really is that noisy and I don't care. But this was a rather popular post all in all, and it was done as something of an experiment. I'm convinced now that people want a lot more context in their news - something that helps them make sense of the information that is shot at them "like a firehose aimed at a teacup" (to quote Scott Adams). If you'd like to discuss that more, I invite you to my personal basefook page at https://www.facebook.com/erik.hare/posts/10151578528287061 I think there is a real opportunity to improve journalism that is being missed in a big way. | 2013-09-06T23:56:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/06/adp-employment-report/#comment-19285 |
| Yes! All around, you got it. It's just going to take time to absorb all that job loss. It's really that simple. | 2013-09-06T21:56:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/06/adp-employment-report/#comment-19284 |
| Yes, a good point. I think growth would have been higher, but we appear to be entering a higher growth period so it was masked. It sort of implies that it came at just the right time, which is rather ironic. | 2013-09-06T21:55:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/06/adp-employment-report/#comment-19283 |
| Then I didn't explain it well enough! Well, here's the graph. Any more questions? :-) | 2013-09-06T21:54:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/06/adp-employment-report/#comment-19282 |
| Re-evaluating High School is an excellent idea, but you want to whip up a partisan firestorm that'll do it. But yes, I think demanding more from the "free" parts of school and getting people ready to face life one way or the other at age 18 should be a goal. | 2013-09-06T21:53:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/04/realistic-generation/#comment-19281 |
| I think everyone agrees with you here. There may have to be other ways to get constant education or certifications as needed in the future. | 2013-09-06T21:52:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/04/realistic-generation/#comment-19280 |
| I don't know if "fearful" is quite right, but that's a quibble. Anxious isn't much different when you start talking about it. You are right, it's going to be hard for them when there are opportunities out there to grab and run with. All in all, this generation will be a lot like "The Greatest Generation" that got their attitudes from the Depression - and then won WWII. They were very risk adverse, but it worked for them. I hope this group works together as well. |
2013-09-06T21:51:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/04/realistic-generation/#comment-19279 |
| I think we have to act eventually, but when it is over a nation has to be put back together. We don't have that coalition in place yet. I don't know how it will happen. I think I am still against intervention until we have an end in mind. | 2013-09-06T21:48:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/02/sovereignty/#comment-19278 |
| The politician. :-) Seriously, I want the killing to stop and I have for years now. I don't think we can possibly do this alone or even with a European coalition. If the Arab League wants us to join them in action it might work, but they just rejected us. I can't see things getting better over the long haul if someone - the UN, Arab League, or similar - doesn't step up to handle the aftermath. And I just don't think we can possibly do it well on our own. Replacing today's suffering for more tomorrow is not an answer, IMHO/ | 2013-09-02T03:07:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/02/sovereignty/#comment-19227 |
| The minimum wage probably should be raised substantially, but the problem really does come in the hospitality industry. It is hard to imagine cheap eateries making it, but an upscale one that is selling excellent service as part of the evening does have far more room and desire for higher base wages. Then there are tips to consider, always a strange thing. | 2013-09-01T16:53:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19225 |
| Retired people are far from secure, and I think you are right that a lot of the PT by choice will be older people who just can't physically work more than about 20 hours and/or just need a little supplement. And yes, the suicide rates over 50 are pretty high, and it's a reflection of not being able to survive in this world, so it's related. There is a lot more to say on PT work, but this is what we have for now. I liked the historical perspective in this report which tells us that where we are is not that unusual (except the reduced hours part). | 2013-09-01T16:51:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19224 |
| For many people, PT is enough - apparently about 1in 7 workers. But yes, that's hardly a majority. I am thinking about a piece on Syria, but I have no idea what needs to be said on it. |
2013-09-01T16:49:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19223 |
| I thought the same thing coming in, but it does seem that PT is not a trend. I'm sure this will be revisited - as I said in the piece on employment stats, the PT figures have way more heft than their position in the middle of a big report would suggest. | 2013-09-01T16:48:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19222 |
| Thank you very much! I have not seen this work mentioned anywhere else, and I thought it was worth getting out there. | 2013-09-01T16:46:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19221 |
| Consultants are a good question - what is "full time" to people working the 990? I don't know. But yes, it seems that 3:1 people work PT because they want to. I find that interesting. The 40 hour workweek is a bit artificial. | 2013-09-01T16:46:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19220 |
| My concern is that while we can certainly ease the short-term suffering, there is the possibility of making things worse in the long term. An international coalition is essential, IMHO, and without UN backing I can't see that happening. |
2013-08-30T21:03:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19210 |
| Yes, we are all marching together when we do what we know is right. And most people do, frankly. Perhaps we need to be counted better. | 2013-08-30T00:14:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19202 |
| Thanks! | 2013-08-30T00:13:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19201 |
| MLK would certainly be against the intervention we do around the world, and his family said so. I think we have to question this a lot more than we do. I can make a case for getting into Syria, but I still don't like it one bit. | 2013-08-30T00:13:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19200 |
| Thanks! We may not get to the promised land, as MLK himself knew. Sadly, it was far too short of that for him. | 2013-08-30T00:12:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19199 |
| No idea where you are going, but according to quantcast the average income is well over $100k. No, I don't have that kind of scratch m'self. :-) | 2013-08-30T00:11:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19198 |
| Thanks - I have always loved that story. It shows how the site started down the path to being what it is today - the backdrop of a call to our greatness. | 2013-08-30T00:10:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19197 |
| Thanks! Interesting take, I will think about it. | 2013-08-27T23:17:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/26/womens-equality-day/#comment-19184 |
| I think this will all be reversed in the courts, yes. But we can't sit still and wait for that. It's too important to not make something of this and draw a very clear line - this cannot stand. | 2013-08-27T23:16:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/26/womens-equality-day/#comment-19183 |
| Very much so! Your analogy is spot on. We have to fight for the rights of those who are oppressed if we are going to be able to hold them for ourselves. It is very critical. | 2013-08-27T23:15:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/26/womens-equality-day/#comment-19182 |
| Agreed on China. The rest of the world does have a lot to take care of as well, and I agree on democracy. | 2013-08-26T02:19:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/23/government-101/#comment-19172 |
| It does get political, such as the choice between full employment and maximizing short-term GDP growth, as an example. But many choices are very straighforward. Perhaps this is worthy of a post itself. | 2013-08-26T02:18:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/23/government-101/#comment-19171 |
| Thanks. I'm starting to think all this stuff is really pretty simple. Traders and investors with some experience do have something to teach economists, IMHO. | 2013-08-23T02:44:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/23/government-101/#comment-19156 |
| But how do you get from point A to point B? I don't have all the answers. I'm proposing here an alternative system, as if systemic approaches are the right way to go. I know that's inadequate at best. The US does have an amazing system, and the people really do know best - at least eventually. As a democrat (small d) I fundamentally believe that. Other nations are a bit adrift in all the change, and who can blame them since it's so much to absorb. But they will get it right if they get a chance to see it through over the long haul. Changes often take generations to achieve, especially fundamental ones. How many mothers in our world can really relate to what their daughters are facing? It's so hard to provide guidance and each generation is cast adrift to find its own way. That makes for slow, uneven progress. But .... there is progress. Egypt will work it out or collapse into what appears to be a safe place where they think they can hid (as Iran did). I don't know which. But I do think a system that holds the tension in some kind of stasis might help, at least a little bit. The same is true for many other nations. Lord help us all, this is a difficult time for everyone. |
2013-08-23T02:33:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/21/cabinet-government/#comment-19155 |
| Interesting point. I think you are right. | 2013-08-23T02:26:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/21/cabinet-government/#comment-19154 |
| I picked Egypt because part of how this came to me was thinking about how this would go down if the police weren't tied to the military. It grew from there. Multiple separations of powers in many layers seems to suit a state that is otherwise falling apart to me. | 2013-08-21T00:29:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/21/cabinet-government/#comment-19142 |
| It is losing money, yes. I think he is a very good candidate to be the next Pulitzer - or Hearst. I used the Kane ref for a lot of reasons. :-) | 2013-08-21T00:26:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/19/bezos-buys-post-speculation-rampant/#comment-19141 |
| Yes, it could be that simple. If you have that much money, why not? Look at what Elon Musk does for fun. | 2013-08-21T00:25:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/19/bezos-buys-post-speculation-rampant/#comment-19140 |
| Thanks. This one might as well be true, yes. Newspapers will change, no doubt - that is an excellent point. Someone with the ability to master new ways of delivering information will transform all newspapers someday. Maybe it's Bezos? Why not? |
2013-08-21T00:24:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/19/bezos-buys-post-speculation-rampant/#comment-19139 |
| We're on the same page here. My bias was to never look at retail, which may have been a mistake, but I also stopped looking at manufacturing too closely because I can't see it going anywhere as long as the Dollar is strong. But the loss of 1/3 of our manufacturing jobs since 2000 (down 6M from 18M, roughly) very much describes how we got into what I call the "Managed Depression". It is hard to imagine us getting out of this without replacing those jobs. This is at the heart of why I talk about a "restructuring' rather than a "recovery". The economy is going to have to change in ways we really don't have our fingers on yet before we get out of this. The new economy will contain an area of growth none of us are really thinking about today and when fully-fledged in the 2020s will look like something we wouldn't recognize today, I'd say. It's my best guess. But some manufacturing component probably fits into this, or at least I hope it does, given the importance of manufacturing jobs for young people to get into. This is part of why I'm watching the 20-24 year old unemployment rate - the more important part being that employers will hire people with less experience once they really have confidence in the future. OK, I'm rambling. I think GDP growth will be higher, but still not stellar. Now that we're seeing hiring by big companies the job market will improve - but your point that U6 won't budge because it'll be through temps on part time gigs (or that's how I read it) is an important one. That is a good call, IMHO, and U6 probably won't improve much this year. I think you're just a little pessimistic, but people call me Mr. Sunshine for being too rosy. It beats being called Dr. Doom as I was back in 2007-2009. :-) |
2013-08-18T20:14:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19129 |
| The Fed was off on growth earlier this year, but it did pick up in 2Q13. They are basically saying that trend will continue, which is a decent bet for nearly any trend. Your point about velocity is a very good one - it keeps crashing as the money supply increases and GDP doesn't move much. Here are some key places that we've talked about velocity, particularly with respect to the low-end where velocity is clearly much higher but cash is in short supply. I prefer to use MZ for the money supply since it is so broad, and correspondingly MZM. I figure we'll see a change there first. But yes, it seems unreasonable to see an expansion in consumer demand until the employment picture is at least improving at a decent clip, if not much closer to full employment. That is what we have been really focusing on for 2013 as the key indicators, as we've noted before in Barataria. That consumer spending is not coming around does not bother me much yet, given that, but the apparent drop in YoY change since 2011 is a bit disconcerting. It seems to be worth watching. | 2013-08-16T19:35:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19122 |
| Good line of reasoning for both of you, IMHO! Retail is just awful, no doubt about it. But if everyone had the same jack up in costs it would probably encourage more automation (you left out automated and self-serve check out, one of my faves!) | 2013-08-16T19:27:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19121 |
| I think I might start watching retailers. It's just not my thing, since I have no sense of fashion at all, but this may be the thing that has to turn around next, especially if young people start finding jobs this year as I have predicted. I haven't made too much of it yet, since it bounces around so much, but the gap between 20-24 year old unemployment and overall employment fell again in July to 5.2% (12.6% vs 7.4% overall). That's down quite a bit from the 5.9% at the start of the year and remains my key indicator to watch if we're really making progress in jobs. But that means an awful lot more to clothing outlets that deal in fashion for young people like Gap, etc. |
2013-08-16T19:25:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19119 |
| Amen to the first paragraph, but keep trying to convince the kids that they shouldn't put it all into one thing like a truck! On the second part - I met an apparel engineer who works for Target and is probably right now in Hong Kong working out a deal to buy clothes for them. She said that she can see a lot of apparel manufacture coming home to the US in the near future because it is finally being automated and the need for quick turn-around means the supply chain has to be shortened. Dealing with far-flung nations is a big expense that has to be weighed against the cost of production, and if we can make it all here despite relatively high wages it will all make much more sense. Perhaps not everything at once, but higher ticket items can move here first - the fashion stuff. How is that for an item to keep in mind? I take it as an expert opinion. |
2013-08-16T19:17:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19118 |
| We do need a "consumer economy" of a sort if we are going to have a stable middle class society. I think you put it better below. :-) What kind of consumer economy are we going to have? It is changing, and I would say for the better in the sense that it appears to be a more sustainable one that is developing. | 2013-08-16T19:13:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19117 |
| Amen to all that. I didn't want to get into the problems with WalMart as a destroyer of wages because I've talked about that before and it seemed like a diversion. But the mistake I think we can make that I'm dealing with here is that an uptick in consumer spending is not likely soon, but this is not necessarily a bad thing. Again, we have to wait 4-5 years before this is over, and that is playing out even with relatively good news. | 2013-08-16T19:12:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19116 |
| Amazon is the only online-only outlet to make it this far, and they are having problems, too. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/26/technology/amazon-reports-a-small-loss.html?_r=0 They are seeing growth, however, so you do have a point. | 2013-08-16T19:09:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19115 |
| That is how it all started, yes. | 2013-08-16T01:01:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/14/the-junker-brotherhood/#comment-19106 |
| Way older than mine, however! Those things are 60 years and more. I saw a story where someone in Havana made a system for dribbling kerosene (more available than gasoline) into a 50s Cadilac through the hood. That was wild. | 2013-08-16T00:47:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/14/the-junker-brotherhood/#comment-19103 |
| I love stories like that. Over half a million miles! Wow. And why not? Yes, it is usually the body that gives out these days. The suspension and brakes are replaceable (brakes aren't that expensive on a domestic car) but once the body goes it's all gone. That's what's always gotten me. This car is 15 years old and nearing 300k miles but it has a lot left in it. | 2013-08-16T00:46:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/14/the-junker-brotherhood/#comment-19102 |
| Certainly. Relatively rust free. I like Ford Escorts and dread the day that they become extinct (which is very soon). | 2013-08-16T00:43:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/14/the-junker-brotherhood/#comment-19101 |
| Yes, even the Christian faith is not immune to violence. I thought of mentioning Koni and the periodic flare-ups against evangelical protestants in South America, but it seemed like a diversion. At least in the developed world fundamentalism is not usually violent - for now. But it does happen. | 2013-08-14T00:42:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19087 |
| Thank you. I went away from analysis because I believe that identifying a problem requires anyone who is intellectually honest to propose some kind of solution. In this case, it does seem to make the piece weaker, but I stand by it. | 2013-08-14T00:40:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19086 |
| It makes you wonder if we're all doomed, doesn't it? | 2013-08-14T00:39:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19085 |
| The Buddhist radicals are new, for sure. But yes, the world will continue to move forward and in the short run I think these kinds of problems will become more common, not less. | 2013-08-14T00:38:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19084 |
| That they are in essence the same is very important, I think. It is a global trend and the similarities, regardless of the faith, are striking. | 2013-08-14T00:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19083 |
| Sounds like one Hell of a journey! I'd love to be on it. I'm sure I've seen every episode since 1970, which is to say in colour, but I'm missing a lot of Hartnell and Troughton. | 2013-08-12T01:00:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/09/peter-capaldi/#comment-19067 |
| Here's hoping! :-) | 2013-08-12T00:57:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19066 |
| Yes, it is mostly a sideshow. This is the real meat - and no one knows what to serve up. A difficult time being filled with nonsense. Sigh. | 2013-08-12T00:57:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-19065 |
| Wasn't me, sadly. If it was, you'd be hearing about a project involving a Ford Focus with a blown eingine being turned into a turbine electric hybrid. :-) | 2013-08-09T01:18:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/07/a-st-paul-moment/#comment-19051 |
| Thanks! | 2013-08-09T01:17:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/07/a-st-paul-moment/#comment-19050 |
| Thanks! | 2013-08-09T01:17:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/07/a-st-paul-moment/#comment-19049 |
| It isn't exactly working as it is supposed to, but things could always be worse. Yes, most of the benefit goes to the big bankers, but the system was kept from totally imploding. | 2013-08-07T01:38:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19042 |
| A lot of people feel this way. The Fed Chair can't be a woman? What year is this? | 2013-08-07T01:37:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19041 |
| Personality is the most important issue, yes. And it is a consensus position. So you make an excellent point in far fewer words. | 2013-08-07T01:37:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19040 |
| That would be Yellen. http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/02/07/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSTRE5156GW20090207?sp=true :-) | 2013-08-05T19:22:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19031 |
| I can't answer that with confidence. I think the press is lazy, but part of it is that administrations really like the headline (lower!) number. It also does not conform to the way unemployment is reported in other nations, which is closer to the headline U3. U6 is way more informative, however. There's no reason a press outlet can't use both, but it always seems that people writing about economic issues don't even know U6 is there. | 2013-08-05T00:49:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/02/what-is-employment/#comment-19023 |
| I think it was just noise. The BLS number was higher in June but lower in July. It's always noisier overall. Remember, this is a small number derived from subtracting two big numbers - and in the case of the BLS the big numbers come from a survey. A lot of noise month to month. | 2013-08-05T00:30:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/02/what-is-employment/#comment-19019 |
| A bit of a diversion, but I'll bite since you're an old-timer 'round here. :-) I remember that when the Soviet archives were opened they showed an acceptance that their spy Julius Rosenberg was caught, but were mystified by the implication of Ethyl. She apparently had nothing to do with it. I also agree that openness does serve the government's interests far more often than the spymasters seem to appreciate. It probably does make their job a bit harder, but they don't seem to understand their own need for public support over the long haul. Was McCarthy right? Eh. We were infiltrated, but he made the case for that far too political to be useful. Things like that should never be political footballs - or serve the career of one person or party over the other. |
2013-08-05T00:28:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/02/what-is-employment/#comment-19018 |
| I'm not sure about job assurance - a fluid labor market is in everyone's interests through this transition, but we do need basic standards (such as a decent minimum wage). The progress so far has been good, but it's so damned slow - it does have to accelerate to make a difference. | 2013-08-05T00:25:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/02/what-is-employment/#comment-19017 |
| I'll leave it 'cuz you were nice. :-) | 2013-08-02T03:31:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-19002 |
| Coffee might be a better one - if it gets ya thinking. :-) | 2013-08-02T03:30:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-19001 |
| Free coffee is a staple in any social setting in Minnesota, but it is often of the "brown crayon dipped in hot water" variety. I like my coffee rather strong and black. :-) | 2013-08-02T03:30:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-19000 |
| Thanks! | 2013-08-02T03:28:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-18999 |
| Well, there you go. They are luxuries, really. | 2013-08-02T03:28:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-18998 |
| I don't think you have to be a contrarian to think the N11 idea is a lot of hooey. I think there will be far better investment ideas here in the US, but most will be small. There have to be companies that will make use of a lot of new technologies (not 'net based) which will be better value and much easier to keep track of than, say, Iran. Yeesh. | 2013-07-31T03:36:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/29/convergence/#comment-18987 |
| Yes, the world will not be "equal" any time soon. But there are a lot fewer people in poverty, which is a good thing. | 2013-07-31T03:33:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/29/convergence/#comment-18986 |
| India has many problems, and the lack of real resources is probably the worst. They also have a long way to go before they really turn the corner. Brazil has been doing an excellent job of not just using their resources but really adding a lot of value before they leave the nation - bauxite becomes aluminum (after the Amazon dams) and then a wide variety of parts and even airplanes. A lot of jobs are created along the way. It's not just energy for Brazil, it's an array of resources including open land - and making good use of them. Environmentalists, naturally, may disagree with the last part. As for the temp economy, I haven't written on that in a while, and I am thinking about it as you suggested before. There is more that can be said about this transformation and how to make it work - because I think it's permanent. |
2013-07-31T03:32:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/29/convergence/#comment-18985 |
| A good point, I often forget the Cold War. Perhaps it's from trying. So much changed after that and we could move to a more open economy globally - in addition to creating the great engine of Europe, Germany. More to think about, thanks! | 2013-07-31T03:26:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/29/convergence/#comment-18984 |
| Yesterday was plain cold! And that is a lot like the economy. The analogy works better than I thought. Scary. :-) | 2013-07-29T02:26:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18961 |
| Yes, everyone is winging it. And no, I don't feel good about it, either. But I feel good about Jaco, even with his short and sad life. He at least has a great legacy! |
2013-07-29T02:25:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18960 |
| You are right that everyone is starting from their beliefs and working outward - and those beliefs are based on experience from the old economy. It's very backwards thinking. Getting to a point of real pragmatism and truth about the next economy is very hard. | 2013-07-29T02:24:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18959 |
| It is the new economy, like it or not. We are simply not set up to handle a nation of temps, however, and it is very difficult to string together a living off of even a number of such jobs. So much has to be figured out, and we're not even close to doing that. | 2013-07-29T02:23:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18958 |
| There probably will be some effect on employers hiring more part-time people, but the overhead per employee is still so high, even after health care costs, that this will be minimal, I think. We have to see how it sorts out. The key is, indeed, getting money into the hands of people that spend it. Call me a Keynsian if that's what that means, but the velocity of money is much higher among those who have little - they live paycheck to paycheck! People are falling out of the "middle class" and that has to be reversed if we are going to get out of the Depression. That means jobs first and foremost, but it also means more money left over once the paycheck is collected. It's important to have both. |
2013-07-29T02:22:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18957 |
| Thank you. :-) Jaco is a real hero, IMHO. | 2013-07-29T02:18:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18956 |
| Ha! :-) Well, the empire isn't quite what it used to be anyways. | 2013-07-25T20:17:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18922 |
| George is already influencing the world, eh? :-) Thanks! Actually, Pope Francis, formerly Jorge Bergoglio, made my George happy since he is really George Francis in long form. This is another step forward for the return of what I think is a great name! | 2013-07-25T13:52:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18917 |
| A good point. We don't need celebrity, but we do need competent. The first ones will become celebrities, however. Will that ruin them? I hope now. | 2013-07-25T13:50:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18916 |
| Access is a critical issue here, and I know the big name reporters crave it. But what does it really give you? Since everything is defined by spin it almost seems like outsiders have the edge these daze - since they aren't jaded! | 2013-07-25T13:49:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18915 |
| A terrible omission, and thanks for correcting it. :-) | 2013-07-25T13:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18914 |
| He is not Al Capone, but he's not all that far away in some ways. :-) The goal is to set an example, I think, but it's not clear that this will do it. In that sense, it's silly. The prosecutions under Bharara are far more interesting - and solid. | 2013-07-24T01:49:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/22/cleaning-up-wall-street/#comment-18905 |
| That is my worst fear - that his is used as an example of an administration run amok. | 2013-07-24T01:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/22/cleaning-up-wall-street/#comment-18904 |
| I think she had a lot to do with it, and I think the pressure is only starting. I look for a lot more prosecutions in the near future. | 2013-07-24T01:47:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/22/cleaning-up-wall-street/#comment-18903 |
| Several points, the first is that we agree that there are people who want this to be the main issue. Handling pensions in this day is something I have to think about - are they really dinosaurs that should not exist, going with a 401(k) model, or should we encourage more companies to offer them? I don't really know. I have been thinking more about sprawl and its costs. Long ago, I wrote on that a lot. It is worth revisiting, especially as poverty becomes a more suburban problem all the time. |
2013-07-22T15:56:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18892 |
| Saeldredge, I am seeing the story turn into a pension story, and I agree that this is ludicrous. It is not the largest part of the potential default in Detroit, but since you got me thinking about it I can see two reasons why this part took off: 1) Human interest - no one really cares about ordinary bondholders, which is unfair since Muni bonds are often held by local residents. In a big default on all obligations, the only people that anyone really feels sorry for are the pensioners. It makes a good story - and they have been the most vocal about the BK long before it was filed. So the media wants to focus on that out of a sense of "reality teevee". 2) Unions - the right likes the story this way because it suggests that greedy unions are the problem. They are guaranteed pay but the rest of Detroit suffers? That is the angle that it is taking in the right wing media right now. As for the solution, I don't know at this point. Public employees are the only ones who really get a pension these days. |
2013-07-22T15:47:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18891 |
| I went to college in Pittsburgh (Carnegie) and I fell in love with the place. The story I was told was that the Mayor of the town gathered all the industry leaders into the "Renaissance Conference" and told them that everyone would have to give something. Westinghouse started the Robotics Institute with Carnegie. PPG built a new office building, a symbol of the city. Rooney of the Steelers promised a Superbowl win (and gave them four). Pittsburgh got past the racial problems and made the city work. It's just that kind of city, in the end, and they have done so much better than Cleveland or Detroit. I think it is the most beautiful city in the US, too. And it just plain works! |
2013-07-22T02:09:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18885 |
| That is an interesting idea. I do wonder if there should be another FDIC modeled agency for this sort of thing, and that could be a funding source! | 2013-07-22T02:05:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18884 |
| Thank you. I agree that we do have the resources to be decent people but we have chosen not to. Your comment is quite a blog post in itself, and thanks for sharing it here! | 2013-07-22T02:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18883 |
| I don't know much about the area, to be honest. I have been following the downfall of Detroit city for a long time, and it seems that the public has finally become aware of how bad it is. | 2013-07-22T02:02:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18882 |
| There was a lot of "sin" going around, which is always the hard part. Justice, in the real world, is a tricky thing. Good to hear you got away for a bit, though. :-) |
2013-07-22T02:00:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18881 |
| Yes, you are right - it is more subtle and less damaging, but it is indeed always with us. Thanks for the read, I will use that in a later post. Very good work! |
2013-07-22T01:59:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18880 |
| Thanks, I do appreciate it - and hope for the same. A few gains here and there and then a big step backwards. | 2013-07-22T01:58:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18879 |
| I try to turn down the volume more than anything else. Too many people are trying to turn it up, IMHO. | 2013-07-22T01:57:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18878 |
| It is more, but I believe that is the root of it, yes. | 2013-07-22T01:57:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18877 |
| Thanks! | 2013-07-17T02:36:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18844 |
| Thanks. There are more constant forces on us, such as globalism and the Baby Boom's demographics. The cyclical nature of debt has made it harder for us to grapple with those temporarily, but we'll come back to them. I'm thinking a lot about the different nature of these trends, those that are cyclical and those that are directional. | 2013-07-17T02:35:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18843 |
| The way they are constructed, yes. They are based on the old industrial model, which is crumbling around us - and your point about ethnicity is also very key. A new generation of organizers, such as those in the SEIU, will largely agree with this. The movement needs a re-invigoration much like every other institution that we've come to rely on, IMHO. | 2013-07-17T02:34:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18842 |
| Yes, very much so. People who actually look back and learn from history are unusually wise in this world. I have a lot of quibbles with Krugman, but they look less important all the time. | 2013-07-17T02:31:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18841 |
| Several things about manufacturing. If your economy, however you define it, is not making as much as it consumes it is bleeding wealth. That can be made up in part with intellectual property and/or finance, but we aren't really doing that, either. An economy bleeding wealth can't remain where it is forever - but it can go on for a long time. So we do have to make something like what we consume if we're going to maintain our standard of living - and we aren't. The other point is more subtle, but manufacturing jobs really have created opportunity for people who don't know what they want to do when they are 18. There are a lot of people like that, too. Something that creates a place where people can grow on the job is desperately needed - and if that's not manufacturing I'm OK with whatever fills the bill. |
2013-07-17T02:30:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18840 |
| Addendum as a comment: I didn't want to waste space theorizing on George Zimmerman's mental state, since I don't know him. But I assure you that everyone I know from Florida had some sympathy for this guy, even the most liberal and open-minded - we've seen people like him before. People learn to thrive in the fear, the adrenaline of the moment, in a land filled with violence and lizard-brained reaction. That is not to excuse his actions in any way at all, but there is an inevitability to this horrible encounter that will almost certainly be repeated over and over again. Until we can get over the fear, there will be no justice. Until we can get over the fear, there is only anger. Until we can get over the fear, there will be no peace. Do we not want all of our children, those that look like Trayvon and those that look like mine, to survive and grow up into a world of peace? |
2013-07-17T00:25:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18835 |
| I agree that we don't get every story eventually - or at least not until everyone involved is dead. But I trust the NTSB - they have been tough on big companies like Boeing even recently and if there is a problem with the 777 we will hear about it. But yes, that is not always the case. | 2013-07-09T23:27:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18774 |
| Yes, that is the case. I don't doubt that there is a big role for professionals to be on the ground in places like Afghanistan, where amateurs speculating at home cannot tell what is really happening. That makes sense to me. But if all they do is parrot the official line there isn't much point to it. Stories at home require "curation" skills that apparently CNN simply doesn't have. Context is king, and if they can't provide that they are not more useful than an open http port. | 2013-07-09T23:26:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18773 |
| I think it is getting more obvious all the time, yes. | 2013-07-09T23:23:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18772 |
| I liked this story not just because I could brag on George, but because it shows the problem in a way that is very politics-neutral. The information was out there, but they couldn't find it. They did eventually, but if it takes that much time why stay on the air? As for the many things that had to go wrong at once to drop a 777 out of the air like this, that is indeed speculation. What we do know is that they came in too slow and recognized the problem too late. Why? That will take a lot of time. But hey, I don't break news, I fix it. :-) |
2013-07-09T23:23:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18771 |
| Yes, I think that on balance teevee nooze makes people negatively informed - ie, they have the wrong impression about nearly everything. There was a study that showed this for Fox Nooze viewers, but I would think it should hold over all of them. | 2013-07-09T23:21:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18770 |
| Thank you very much! From you that means a lot, really thanks! | 2013-07-04T18:26:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/04/flying-the-flag/#comment-18744 |
| I don't think anyone has seriously tried, nor will they. But a few people might start doing something stupid, yes. And if the right should win more power I'm fairly sure "my side" wouldn't be any different about it, no. | 2013-07-04T02:15:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18739 |
| Glorify isn't exactly the right word. The bravery is unimaginable in today's world, and I think it's worth remembering that. But yes, something like this must never happen again - and the cautionary story is at least as important. | 2013-07-04T00:04:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18737 |
| Yes, we are still fighting the Civil War in some ways. Even if the issues have changed a bit, the underlying principles are very similar. | 2013-07-04T00:01:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18736 |
| >blush!< Thank you! It could be a lot briefer, though, more like a slogan. | 2013-07-03T00:34:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18731 |
| Thank you. And yes, I hope that we can think about what this holiday means, especially on such a critical anniversary! | 2013-07-03T00:34:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18730 |
| But we all do it, all the time. It's a matter of how disconnected people are from the topic at had - be it politics, hollyweird, or whatever. The creation of a fantasy world where Obama is a socialst, for example (as opposed to a generally ineffective run-of-the-mill bureaucrat) takes a lot of suspension of disbelief. But it is what is employed. | 2013-07-01T01:43:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/01/suspension-of-disbelief-2/#comment-18718 |
| Thanks! I'm trying to make traditionally male archetypes available for women. When men run for office, there are handy pre-made stories that sit in people's heads that they can use to create a positive image quickly. "Kennedy-esque" comes to mind immediately, but all of our images of leaders are male. I'm trying to cross-over a male image to a woman - and one who I think deserves it. It will help a lot if we can pull off the feat of gender-crossing archetypes. | 2013-07-01T01:42:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/28/the-rhyme-of-texas-history/#comment-18717 |
| There's always one. | 2013-06-29T13:59:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/28/the-rhyme-of-texas-history/#comment-18699 |
| I agree, it is a big opportunity for us and we should make moves to take full advantage of it. The hottest places in the developing world are in our backyard! | 2013-06-26T16:07:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/26/wealth-is-how-you-feel/#comment-18676 |
| Yes, we should. If we felt wealthier we might not have the problems we have - and I think people would be kinder towards those who are struggling. | 2013-06-26T16:07:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/26/wealth-is-how-you-feel/#comment-18675 |
| I don't really want to argue with you about details given that we agree on the most important things. I do agree that the system of corporate taxation is abusive. We have the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world, at 39%. Yet we have much lower effective rates, down around 21%, because of all the deductions allowed. That seems to me to be the worst of both worlds. A much flatter, simpler system would make evasion harder - and lower rates all around. I favor that. The reason a trading tax is desirable is to take the "casino" element out of the stock market and make manipulation harder. A level of just 0.2% would raise enough to cut the corporate tax rate in half, and that may not be a bad idea all around. Imagine a relatively low 10-12% corporate tax that was hard to get out of - that seems reasonably fair. A trading tax wouldn't hit seniors unless they took up day trading, which I think is strongly not recommended anyway. That's my plan, at least. I do agree that the marginal rate on corporations is ridiculous, especially since we riddled the system with holes rather than just reform it properly. |
2013-06-24T21:55:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/24/pirate-banking/#comment-18660 |
| The Federal government is at about 20% of the economy, which I do think is high (especially given how state and local taxes are half that) but it's not totally killing us. I would like to have a reasonable debate about what we really need to be doing as a Federal government, but without that it's going to keep on as it is through sheer momentum (and not because an actual budget was passed, Lordy, no!) PM David Cameron said something like, "If you want low rates you have to make sure everyone pays their share of it." I support that. I think the long term deal has to be low, simplified business taxes and make it very hard to hide money. Unlike individual taxes, there is no solid reason why business taxes on profit have to be progressive - so why not make them flat? Why not get some of the business tax money from a trading tax on the stock market, as we've discussed before? This will take international cooperation, however, and it won't be easy. |
2013-06-24T13:58:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/24/pirate-banking/#comment-18655 |
| The people are paid not to, but the governments need the dough. There's a balance here. :-) | 2013-06-24T13:52:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/24/pirate-banking/#comment-18654 |
| I won't argue with you on most of this - serious change is necessary, and if it doesn't come through peaceful means there's a time to start upping the pressure. As I've said here, there is a chance for a great golden age if we just get our act together, but congress is split between two parties - one that can't get anything done and one that refuses to get anything done. As for China, however, the changes they have seen in 20 years are gut-wrenching at best. Nearly a third of the population came from farms to live in absolutely filthy cities where they work like animals for really meager pay. That's what I mean by a need for intense riots. Sure, we have it bad - but they have it worse and have been promised a lot more. But yes, we should take care of our own problems first, and there are a lot of them. I am afraid it will come down to a kind of revolution - but if that's what it takes, count me in. What we have now can't hold. |
2013-06-23T00:34:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/21/cold-currency-war/#comment-18644 |
| To get from here to there will probably take civil unrest - the government won't give up power unless it has to. I expect there will be civil unrest if they shut down the shadow banking system because people will be plunged into poverty. The social upheaval China has experienced has been amazing - any other nation wold have had intense riots by now. Something is likely to happen, yes, and it may well lead to more freedom. But I think it has to be guided that direction if we're going to see it happen. | 2013-06-21T18:20:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/21/cold-currency-war/#comment-18638 |
| It does seem incredibly backwards, yes. China is simply taking its rightful place in the world after a few really bad centuries. The process has been rapid but very uneven so far, and it has made for a life that is often hellish at best. Normalizing this into something modern is still going to be difficult. | 2013-06-21T16:17:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/21/cold-currency-war/#comment-18636 |
| Agreed all around. We have a good Fed Board of Governors, all in all. I hear they have had a lot of spirited discussions, which is very much called for in these times. | 2013-06-20T21:24:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/19/professor-bernanke-again/#comment-18625 |
| I hope you are right, very much so! | 2013-06-20T21:23:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/19/professor-bernanke-again/#comment-18624 |
| Everything is changing. People are taking their comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke. - Will Rogers |
2013-06-17T13:19:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/17/funny-is-more-fun/#comment-18600 |
| You're trapped in a room with a tiger, a rattlesnake and a spammer. You have a gun with two bullets. What should you do? You shoot the spammer. Twice. |
2013-06-17T02:16:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/17/funny-is-more-fun/#comment-18596 |
| Yes, I have to do that part of it - how the next generation gets control of government and reforms it. That is going to be critical. | 2013-06-15T23:35:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18583 |
| I think if I made a list of all the reforms I have suggested I would look like a total nut! :-) But there is a political platform in there somewhere. There has to be a better way to run a government than we have now, yes. And all of that is important. I think that once the next generation gets a bit more power and/or the next cycle starts we will have a better shot at reform than we have now - there is far too much fear driving people on both sides to think into the future. | 2013-06-14T18:48:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18571 |
| Certainly, we can't blame the elderly for the situation that has developed. Dealing with the wave of retirements is going to be a challenge, yes, but it's also a great opportunity - and that's what we have been trying to uncover here. It turns out that the US is not seeing its population age as rapidly as many other nations and there is still going to be some population growth through 2030, largely through immigration. That may even accelerate based on what we can see coming. So there is no reason to panic. However, we will have a lot of pressure and we are going to have to be very deliberate as to how we restructure our economy in this area if we're going to be able to take advantage of the opportunities. The political system we have now really does not allow that, yes. It is a big problem. |
2013-06-14T14:17:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18565 |
| We do have to reform how we pay for Social Security, yes. That is a very big deal and it will become a huge issue no matter what. I think Obamacare will help us manage the health care costs much better, even if it is a half-measure that keeps insurance companies far too much in the loop. Developing nations are a different animal, yes. I haven't thunk that through yet. What I will say is that Europe has a chance, just as we do, if they can get their act together. I wouldn't bet on that, however, but they might have all they need to muddle through. |
2013-06-14T01:19:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18561 |
| Ha! You can call me an optimist, but there are reasons to be positive in the next few years. We just have to survive the next 4-5, which are going to be tricky. One of the things I didn't get into (for space) is that this explains the high inflation of the 1970s - we're living through the Baby Boom life cycles as they dominate the demographics and the economy. I think there's a lot here that is not a surprise. I agree on reform - this is the time to do it, and we're not. I expect that when the next generation takes real power, at the start of the next cycle, we'll have more progress. That is important, yes. |
2013-06-14T01:17:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18560 |
| So far that's three of us. Let's see how many more? :-) | 2013-06-12T02:09:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/12/credit-unions/#comment-18534 |
| That is a good rate. I agree, banks are pointless. | 2013-06-12T02:09:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/12/credit-unions/#comment-18533 |
| Your story on the Legislature is a bit sickening, but I think you hit on the real problem. Democrats are claiming a majority for the next generation, but we're not transferring power to that generation adequately at all. The old guard really has to start moving on quickly if we're going to keep up the enthusiasm that surprised all the "experts" in 2012. Young people are engaged and are voting in big numbers, as are traditional minorities. The various Hispanic groups are proving to be pretty good citizens lately and are very interested in claiming their share of power. If we let them down we will miss out on a big opportunity. Having said it that way, big, systemic overhauls HAVE to be in the works - either because this new generation has achieved its share or at least to keep them engaged. The tired old left just isn't doing the job. The US Senate and the inability to get past cloture is emblematic of the left all the way down, and that's chilling to me. Privacy may be the thing that breaks open the party, at least I hope it is. If we succeed in pushing this one aside I think we may lose a LOT of young people forever. That would be unbelievably stupid. To think we might lose a golden opportunity over this makes me sick. |
2013-06-11T15:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18518 |
| I suppose you are right. I long ago realized that Obama was not with me on the one issue I cared about - a "New Deal" that would restructure the economy. I have assumed he was at least OK on the other stuff that was way down my list. Apparently, that wasn't true at all. It's been a rather shallow administration full of half-measures and a lot of "muddle through". That the Intelligence-Security-Complex rolled right through that really isn't a surprise, no. I just hoped there was better in there somewhere - and trusted his appointees more than him. So what do we all do about it? That's the real question. The way Feinstein talks I can see that even if the Dems take things over in 2014 or 2016 there is no guarantee that we won't just have more and more of the same. |
2013-06-10T18:19:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18508 |
| We do have a problem. No one trusts the government this much, at least not anyone I know. | 2013-06-10T14:40:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18504 |
| A "Right to Privacy" Amendment is a good idea, but amendments are very tricky. Let's see what gets started. | 2013-06-10T14:40:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18503 |
| I don't know exactly what it takes to put a stop to this. It has too many friends in Congress to end suddenly. We have to make a lot of noise, maybe march on Washington in an angry mob way bigger than anything they have ever seen before. | 2013-06-10T14:39:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18502 |
| Several points are very important here, and I think I agree with you on all of them. One is that Obama has to be responsible for this, simply because he is the one in charge. The real problem is a defense/NSA/Security establishment that is simply out of control and bent on expanding itself, not just perpetuating. That existed before Obama, but he has not done anything to reign it in as he promised. It appears it is indeed getting worse instead. We have to hold him accountable for that. I cannot understand why he would support this machine, but he seems if anything to be afraid of it - even captive by it. We can't have that. Someone has to be in charge, and if Obama can't do it for whatever reason we have to find someone else. This may be my big issue in 2016, especially if the economy keeps improving slowly. Secondly, that this stuff is technically "legal" is not a cause to relax, but quite the opposite. I can't believe that we have authorized such broad surveillance. It has to stop, but being "legal" makes that much harder. Lastly, the court review of this has been minimal at best because no one is challenging it - due in part to the gag orders that accompany all the data gathering. That was what bothered Snowden the most, and he's right. Disclosure is the best guarantee of our rights, and without it we have no chance at all. My biggest fear is that the Supreme Court would say this is OK and that there is no "Right to privacy". That upsets everything from Roe v Wade to a lot of basic checks on the police that we have come to rely on to defend our rights. What I think matters most is the mainstream press having this discussion. I hope that keeps up for a long time. I doubt people will be comfortable with this stuff once they know about it, and they will demand change. |
2013-06-10T14:16:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18497 |
| Exactly. We don't have an implicit "right to privacy", but one has been interpreted by courts as an obvious conclusion from the Fourth Amendment. A different court might not find it so obvious. Right now, such a "right" is being challenged rather seriously. |
2013-06-10T03:59:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18493 |
| It always gets crazy this time of year. We'll see how it goes in another month. | 2013-06-10T01:05:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/07/the-livin-is-queasy/#comment-18491 |
| I will right now! :-) | 2013-06-10T01:04:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/07/the-livin-is-queasy/#comment-18490 |
| That's easy. Going after Obama as a policy was wrong, and Benghazi played itself out long ago. There may be something in the IRS scandal, and I admitted that the AP scandal was very important - for the reasons outlined here. The Obama Administration probably did NOT break any laws at all - and that is the problem. The Patriot Act gave insanely broad power to his administration just like the last one, and that is very wrong. Going after junk like Benghazi just makes it much harder to go after the real scandals - it's crying "wolf!" This one is a very big deal. And everyone is to blame. It's different than those other things that were being invented - and they were a pointless distraction from big deals like this. |
2013-06-10T01:03:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18489 |
| Good call on free association - that is another very powerful argument. A lot of our rights are not in the Constitution directly, but have been interpreted by courts over many years. The Right to Privacy is one of them - and it comes from the Fourth Amendment. I agree that he is a patriot - he was willing to give up a comfortable life to fight for our most cherished values. |
2013-06-10T01:00:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18488 |
| Exactly! We don't want to owe everything to the banks. That's really what our problem is right now. We talked before about how to get out of that problem - this piece is how to avoid getting into it. Japan is going headlong into a pretty bad mess if they aren't careful, and there is pressure on a lot of nations to follow them. I hope we can all find another way. | 2013-06-05T01:43:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/05/this-time-really-is-different/#comment-18446 |
| I wasn't thinking of North Korea, no, but it does seem like it now that you mention it. No nation does this today and the result really is isolation. It's hard to imagine. WTO sanctions are a real kiss of death. That is what changed. | 2013-06-05T01:17:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/05/this-time-really-is-different/#comment-18444 |
| You are right, that is the real problem. Borrowing a lot of money leaves the government very vulnerable and makes sustainable progress much more difficult. There is a lot more to say on that, yes! | 2013-06-05T01:16:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/05/this-time-really-is-different/#comment-18443 |
| I won't disagree at all ... well, with the Paul Ryan part. Yes, the velocity of money is very important - and the more in the hands of people who need it the faster it goes through the economy. But you can't goose things artificially forever - there has to be some real equity built into the economy. Consider what Brazil has done since 1994. They are still a leftist, almost socialist nation. But they are doing it right now! They have sustainable growth that is lifting the nation out of poverty. It's not always as even as they want, and they have a lot to work on, but the path is pretty clear. There isn't really a left/right argument here, nor is there a rich/poor argument. I'm trying to work a short/long term give and take instead. | 2013-06-05T01:02:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/05/this-time-really-is-different/#comment-18440 |
| It is a very different world - inside a nation is one thing, outside is another. Everyone is thinking about both at the same time here, but all politics is first and foremost local. What happens if Japan has to default and/or the Yen really does turn into toilet paper? That's what "collapse" is, and I don't know that anyone has thought that through to the end. I'm starting to think you guys are right about cheap electronics - it doesn't affect us at all. |
2013-06-03T16:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/03/you-were-worried-about-china/#comment-18419 |
| I think you are right on, except it's more than cars. The growth is in the developing world, and they want to be positioned to take advantage of that. You guys are making me think a bit more and I appreciate that. A lot! | 2013-06-03T16:34:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/03/you-were-worried-about-china/#comment-18418 |
| I am thinking a lot more about this, and there is much more to say. I'll balance this out with a more global perspective once it's been thunk out a bit. :-) | 2013-06-03T16:33:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/03/you-were-worried-about-china/#comment-18417 |
| Perhaps I am over-stating the problem, but for the US we have to be worried about the worst-case scenario. I don't think it affects us outside of that - but that worst-case is pretty bad. I'd like to see more manufacturing here, as I've said, but that's going to be very difficult. Cars may indeed become cheaper as the Yen drops. Korea has to respond, too, so we will just wait and see. Exports are going to be more expensive, yes, but a lot of what we export are agricultural products that nations rely on to feed their people so they may not be affected as much. |
2013-06-03T13:49:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/03/you-were-worried-about-china/#comment-18412 |
| aurorawatcherak, I can tell you are sincere, so I will give you a sincere reply. If there is anything to these, you have to realize that the policy of pursuing Obama as a distraction from internal lack of cohesion is a hindrance to getting the truth out, not a help. If you have not read my piece here and followed the links (I do try to provide the most original documents I can) please do, because this is a very serious problem - especially if you think these are worth pursuing. Again, I think the AP Scandal has a LOT of merit for pursuing, and I hope it is fully vetted in both congress and the press. The IRS one also needs more investigation, although there are no signs that the White House had anything to do with it - but they still require oversight on a constant basis and even the appearance of a breach of faith is a serious problem for that agency. Benghazi I would leave aside. Once the faked emails were leaked, that one was over with. We can't take any of it seriously no matter what. My main point remains - a policy of pursuing scandals does no one any good. It is not a substitute for a budget, as one example - and the policy outlined makes it clear that it may come down to that. Such a trade-off should never be an issue. | 2013-05-31T21:47:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18397 |
| That is my feeling precisely. It's a practical matter more than anything. I consider this the only viable alternative to an actual socialized plan. | 2013-05-31T18:43:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18393 |
| I have not said much about this because it's such a hybrid half measure it was never clear to me how it would function. Seeing the big insurers do what they were supposed to makes me think it will indeed work now. The incentives are in the right places, apparently. We will see, I agree. But the most challenging part appears to be working properly. Whew! |
2013-05-31T15:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18389 |
| I'll take these in the order I want to: First of all, my main contention is that scandal investigations have become a matter of policy for political reasons in the US House, and that is ridiculous. As written about earlier, the memo is very explicit about this and why the Republicans need to do it. If you have a real matter to investigate, you might be more worried about crying "wolf". The AP Scandal is a very real one for many reasons. Was the AP raid retaliation? That's a very serious charge, and we can't say on that. Was it legal? The laws as we have them say so, but are they really constitutional? Being a 1st Amendment issue, I think this is indeed worth a lot of airtime - even if the administration did nothing wrong. Benghazi - a major screw-up that has rightly been investigated and changes made. Falsifying emails to make it look like more is ridiculous. There is nothing more here. IRS - there is no evidence that anyone outside of Cincinatti had anything to do with the extra scrutiny, if there even was any applied to specific political groups in the end. Only one application was denied, and that was for a liberal group. This is far from a serious scandal, but it may well be worth investigating. Keeping the IRS even-handed is very important - but to imply that the White House had anything to do with this is absurd. Obamacare - there is no evidence that this will "bankrupt the nation", and there is considerable evidence growing every day that it will do just the opposite. You want to bet against me here, fine, but I'm quite sure you are wrong. Again, the stated policy of using scandals to keep attention away from in-party divisions in the US House is the real issue I have at this point. If one of these is indeed serious, such as the AP one, it is being buried in partisan politics. And you can't blame Obama alone for that. |
2013-05-31T15:01:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18388 |
| Thanks! | 2013-05-31T05:58:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18383 |
| Thank you! Or should I say, "merci beaucoup"? :-) Yes, I miss the days of the old raconteurs, they were a lot of fun. There used to be a lot of them, too. It was like you booked them to fill time on a gab show and you knew it'd be a lot of fun. No one knew why they were famous, sort of like Kardashians except with wit and brains. Those were good old days. Hey, teevee! Raconteur for hire here! Will work for cheap! :-) |
2013-05-30T21:48:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18379 |
| It's pretty rare in the US, but quite common in the UK. This is meant to be a reference post, we'll see how it holds up. | 2013-05-30T01:46:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18373 |
| Ah, yes, nom de plume - meant to include that with nom de guerre, but it was lost in editing. I will make the change to haute couture - thanks! |
2013-05-30T01:45:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18372 |
| I have been wanting to do this for a long time. I do think someone had to. :-) | 2013-05-30T01:44:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18371 |
| Thanks! | 2013-05-30T01:44:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18370 |
| I think that is the key. They can't do everything, but they do so much so well. We can't always rely on that as heavily as we do - it costs us so much in lives and money. | 2013-05-27T18:31:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/27/memorial-day-3/#comment-18353 |
| Yes! | 2013-05-27T18:30:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/27/memorial-day-3/#comment-18352 |
| It is not the only way to solve inequality, far from it. The balance of power between boards and shareholders is a critical issue here. There does not seem to be much power among shareholders, and they are largely incapable of organizing. I would start there when considering executive pay. | 2013-05-26T00:02:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18345 |
| I am thinking about this, and you do have a point. It would mean that everyone associated with the bank has nothing to gain from excessive risks, which is not a bad way to go IHMO. I have long favored what I said before but it does give some out to investors and lower level employees. Dunno. Thanks! | 2013-05-24T21:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/22/bank-regulation-that-makes-sense/#comment-18338 |
| I don't know why this isn't featured more prominently. But they all have their agendas. | 2013-05-24T20:53:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/24/the-scandal-of-scandals/#comment-18337 |
| We will get through it - they can't keep this up too much longer. Remember, they are worried about their own implosion and want to put it off as long as they can. It won't work. There's a budget to get out. | 2013-05-24T16:22:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/24/the-scandal-of-scandals/#comment-18334 |
| Thanks. I listed my news sources in links, relying on mainstream sources when reasonable. The Heritage letter is a blog associated with NBC, for example. What is Bachmann doing? Her appeal has always been to her people, so I can't really say - I don't know them. She's also a terrible narcissist IMHO, so it may just be an appeal to herself. It doesn't make any sense to keep fighting old battles like this, so she can have at it. |
2013-05-24T13:44:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/24/the-scandal-of-scandals/#comment-18330 |
| Thanks for the comment! The problem with a law saying we won't bail out is that it's possible to imagine a scenario where everything fails and we should bail out banks. Even so, there's no reason that the institution might remain but nearly everyone is gone - some of them to jail. The lack of action in the House is a serious problem, and it's something I will be talking about in the next post (if indirectly). The politics there is simply poisonous. |
2013-05-23T20:08:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/22/bank-regulation-that-makes-sense/#comment-18321 |
| It could yet happen. Anything can happen. The politics is good - if nothing else, this might be the setup for bigger victories yet to come, even if this bill doesn't make it. | 2013-05-23T02:24:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/22/bank-regulation-that-makes-sense/#comment-18315 |
| Thanks! I think the reason for having large banks carry more capital is that they can't be bailed out like a smaller bank can, at least not without draining the treasury, so it has to be made less likely. In turns "Too big to fail" back onto the market. I'd like to know more about your feelings on the rest of the regulation. I know these bills are hard to read, but this one is short. | 2013-05-22T01:12:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/22/bank-regulation-that-makes-sense/#comment-18304 |
| Yes, but we are rather far from being Vulcan. :-) Just a little respect for others would go a long way, IMHO. That's all I ask for. | 2013-05-20T20:08:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18282 |
| Thanks! There's so much going on it's very hard to keep track of - especially with any context at all. | 2013-05-20T19:35:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18280 |
| I am still optimistic, but only because Latin America is taking off. My bet is that they will fill in the gaps for us left as Europe collapses - and they will keep collapsing from what I can tell. Japan is way trickier, if only because of the currency war. If everyone in Asia starts lowering their currency we will NEVER get our manufacturing in gear! So there are serious threats, yes, but internally we are doing very well. The sequester is still soaking in, but I think it was indeed overblown. I'm watching the same things as before. |
2013-05-20T15:17:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18277 |
| Yes, there has been a lot of garbage. But Japan and Europe are very real threats. | 2013-05-20T15:05:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18276 |
| I'll have to read what Krugman said - but offhand I do agree. The free market takes care of everything in the long run, but it can do it in a nasty way. The more we are paying attention to what the markets are telling us the more we can ease the transitions - and maybe, just maybe, guide them. People do still like to shop - get out of the house, see and be scene. It's impossible to tell just where the line is going to be for online, but my bet is that any non-personal mass produced item is fair game. These include books, appliances, and all the stuff Amazon does. Clothes seem iffy at best, for example. What about jewelry, ala the etsy model? Man, I just don't know. It's all still very much shaking out. |
2013-05-20T14:43:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18273 |
| There will be at least months, if not years, of chaos and a complete collapse of major trades like construction that rely on credit. Many banks could fail as well. It will the second coming of the Great Depression no matter how it goes down. We have to hope it does not happen. |
2013-05-19T20:25:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/17/the-euro-forced-marriage/#comment-18266 |
| Thank you for your response. I hope that you are correct. I also hope Euroskeptics can add to the conversation necessary to make this happen. They may have some very good advice that will make whatever new union results even stronger. | 2013-05-17T20:19:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/17/the-euro-forced-marriage/#comment-18252 |
| This has been going on since Greece "revealed" what everyone knew - they had been fudging the books - back in late 2009. So it's been 3.5 years of one crisis after the other. I would put the odds of Euro breakup pretty high right now, about a coin toss of 50/50. There are so many things that can tip it, but a popular uprising is the one that I think is the most dangerous for the Euro. I'll be watching the Alternative for Germany to see how much ground they make. I think that's the biggest threat to the Euro now. The politicians in place now will do just about anything to preserve the Euro. The biggest other threat is a major bank collapse - which also seems more probable than it should. Of course, I'm just a guy on the wrong side of the Atlantic reading a lot of scary news reports. I'd love to hear from my European readers (and I know you are out there!) |
2013-05-17T15:31:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/17/the-euro-forced-marriage/#comment-18244 |
| Thank you! | 2013-05-16T01:32:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18230 |
| Thank you! | 2013-05-15T03:17:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18220 |
| It's a positive day! And I want to keep up the momentum. Gary Schiff has the same feeling, I saw. What next? | 2013-05-15T03:01:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18218 |
| Thank you for your additions. Yes, this will take us a long time to work out of. I agree on shareholder activism, but there have to be ways to build a stronger tradition. Executive pay is way out of line by any measure, and over the long haul there is no way to fix it other than a better balance of power between shareholders and board. Exactly what should be done? I don't know, but if I was in some kind of power I'd sure ask a lot of questions in this area. I think we agree on the rest - tax all income equally but progressively and a lot of this will work out over the very long haul. |
2013-05-15T02:04:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18213 |
| Bachmann claimed she started this fight, but I don't think that's really true. Fun to think about, though. :-) Yes, there is tremendous momentum and that is part of the issue. That has a lot to do with how the cynical plan was a rather stupid one. But the issue still could have lost in relatively conservative Minnesota all the same without a good fight. |
2013-05-15T00:31:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18210 |
| I really don't see the difference, and I'm with Sheryl on this. It's about the rights that a couple has through their contractual partnership. | 2013-05-15T00:29:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18209 |
| Yes, we should have been paying more attention. I'm wondering what we should have been paying attention to, though. You know I love to find simple measures that seem to correlate with bigger picture trends, but I can't find anything that expresses the balance between return from investment versus return on equity in a way that makes sense. |
2013-05-13T19:23:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18197 |
| Everyone is surviving with connections and some kind of break from friends. We have really closed down as a society. Networking is great for the individual but overall it makes class rising and so on much harder. | 2013-05-13T17:21:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18195 |
| I really expected more Hell than I'm getting. :-) Studies have been done on how free trade supresses wages, and I will try to see if there is something that is really useful for this. My gut has always told me that the strong dollar has a huge effect on this, given that we've been running 10-20% over purchasing power parity for 30 years. So there are a TON of other effects going on here, of course. But I think the narrative that we spent 30 years absorbing a historic shift in the workforce, only to have a cyclical downturn hit just as we were fully normalizing that shift, is a compelling story IMHO. Granted, a lot of policy changes (as I outlined before) can mitigate many of these effect, and I'm starting to think that paying attention to the relative value of labor vs capital is crutial. And yes, the needs of Social Security in the future will HAVE to come from a uniform tax on all income, not just earned (and especially not just the first $110k). This is a big deal, but it will become obvious sometime after 2020 for sure. I think we need to move that direction now. |
2013-05-13T17:20:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18194 |
| Yesterday's "productivity gains" are today's "unemployment", for sure. And it is sad that we have a government that is not in any way looking out for the poor - even the simplest things have become hard. | 2013-05-13T17:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18193 |
| An excellent question on immigration reform. I doubt it brings anywhere near as many people into the workforce as this - we're talking here about a rise of 7% of the population or about 21M people. That clearly had a big role in depressing wages in the 1890s, for example, but I don't see it happening that big today. I will look into it, though. | 2013-05-13T17:11:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18192 |
| This will be a great program - there are any examples and Peace Coffee is just one. I like how your brand loyalty shows - that's the value of this. Authenticity is going to be the hallmark if social media can get over allowing so much phoniness! | 2013-05-13T01:23:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/10/building-an-economy-on-purpose/#comment-18184 |
| It's very consistent, isn't it? That was the start of the secular bear market and a very clear inflection point by any standard. Things started to change at that point. What makes this a "Managed Depression" is that the Fed and the US Government started running a lot of different stimuli to keep things moving, but only inflated a bubble in the process. I think history is very much going to see 2000 as the turning point in nearly every respect, yes. Note also that the previous cycles were 1965-1983 (the "Summer" or stagflation doldrums stage) and 1983-2000 (the "Autumn" or high growth bull market. This "Winter" did start around 2000, but should end around 2017 and maybe as late as 2020. The inequality has been a feature of the last 3 "seasons" and should reverse with the next "Spring". Fascinating stuff, isn't it? This is what I want to write the book about. :-) | 2013-05-13T01:17:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18183 |
| I do expect to catch Hell for this, but I can't see this any other way. Workplace equity was inevitable so I don't see any point in arguing it, but a dramatic increase in the population working has to put downward pressure on real wages over that same time - and I think that's what we see. As for the future, I don't know that it is bright unless we learn how to manage a large pool of retirees. Progressive taxes to support Social Security are starting to look absolutely essential by about 2020. If we can manage through that, we'll be OK. The way things sit right now we can't even think about something that intelligent coming out of Congress. |
2013-05-13T01:07:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18181 |
| A dumb mistake, and it is now corrected. So no one has an excuse to miss out on this summit! It will be great! | 2013-05-10T19:23:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/10/building-an-economy-on-purpose/#comment-18151 |
| Ha! There is only one time on this planet worth knowing, and it is Greenwich Mean Time, aka UTC aka Zulu. Midnight is at 7PM Central Daylight Time, so the Barataria "day" starts then. :-) I firmly believe that one planet needs only one time - and the rest are just numbers. |
2013-05-10T02:27:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/10/building-an-economy-on-purpose/#comment-18141 |
| I will let you know! (it's what I do, fergooshsakes) I agree that as a truly free market is about people's values, what they value has a net translation into $$$ that should never be ignored. And yes, you can't fake it - at least not forever. Social media is opening up genuine transparency and that should lead to authenticity (sometimes it's pretty thin, but we're working on it). There is a lot of value added through that and it should show. | 2013-05-10T02:26:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/10/building-an-economy-on-purpose/#comment-18140 |
| I think this can all be accomplished with a simpler tax code, yes, although making all savings deductible is a complication. | 2013-05-09T17:16:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18132 |
| I was thinking about talking about socialism (transfer payments! That's the new word!) but left that out. We're accused of that enough without it being real. :-) | 2013-05-09T04:07:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18125 |
| An excellent point, thanks! | 2013-05-09T04:03:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18123 |
| Yes, that would be the best way to reduce employee overhead! I can think of a few pieces I didn't link to inside of this one, and one of them was on the idea that there is a basic overhead of life. Health care is part of that. How employers got stuck with that tab is mind blowing. | 2013-05-09T04:02:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18122 |
| It is a hard topic. I don't think that you can legislate away problems that are deep in the culture, and given how people really don't care about this topic it's not going to go away. We can help on the margins, and we should do what we can, but the big problem is one of culture and attitude, IMHO. | 2013-05-09T04:01:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18121 |
| Fair enough, but I am still hoping for productive, engaged conservatives. Perhaps I should be getting the message out harder among the left - for us it's easier to talk about a "New Deal". | 2013-05-06T14:58:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18097 |
| I like Ferguson's approach, but he does seem to slap his books together. Makes me think I should be doing the same. :-) My biggest problem with him is that he doesn't seem to provide a way out. Granted, that is the hard part and it takes a lot of politics to get us to that point, so it's not fair to ask him to solve everything. But he does provide only a different way of looking at things. I do want the left to engage this kind of debate. He is a true "conservative", taking the long view. It seems far more refreshing to me than the expediency of neo-cons (are there any left?) and tea party types. |
2013-05-06T14:04:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18094 |
| No, I don't think he does use "restructuring" directly. But he is talking about rebuilding the institutions that make the system work, which is the same thing in my book. His take is different from mine, yes. In the links back you can see that I started by talking about structural unemployment and moved on to regulatory structures that are outdated, etc. But they are all roughly the same thing in the sense that they are part of a "New Deal" that is essential. And yes, I tend to focus more on immediate policy matters as part of that (given that we are in a crisis). I'm looking for any progress towards an understanding of the long view, and I found some. I fully expect flak from my fellow lefties, especially given what a flawed personality Niall Ferguson is. But I have never cared about personalities, etc, and only care about ideas - and how they make their way through the various forms of media present today. I hope this type of thinking catches on. |
2013-05-06T03:43:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18089 |
| On regulation, Ferguson is indeed against complex regulation, wrong regulation, and especially uneven enforcement - that is his point. As for lawyers, Ferguson makes the same point you do. I think he's far too hawkish on austerity myself and have made that point very clearly in previous posts. As for his ridiculous homophobic comment, it was terrible and he said so himself pretty much immediately (which is what I linked to). My point remains that someone, finally, is talking about a complete social, political, and legal restructuring. My ideal person to do it? No, I don't think so. But I don't know of anyone else who is attempting to address all of these issues simultaneously as symptoms of a general rot at our core - which I do believe that it is. There is a lot of room to disagree with his conclusions, but conservatives who argue from his perspective are far more productive than the usual nonsense we spend time arguing. I think it's vital that we on the left engage that debate and promote it. Besides, I think we'll ultimately win most of these points, too. |
2013-05-06T03:29:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18087 |
| I agree with that. I'm just happy that the conversation appears to finally be going strong. Perhaps the talk about investment opportunities in restructuring is going to be more fruitful? | 2013-05-06T02:23:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18085 |
| I'll take these in reverse order. Using the S&P500 by itself was a bit dubious, and you are correct that this excludes dividends. A true index fund would include them, so that was a mistake. The return is a bit higher than listed. As for starting from the peak in 2000, there is a very good reason to to this. We are in a secular bear market, which is a long term trend. Within this trend there are cyclical peaks and valleys, but the overall trend remains more or less intact. When did the trend start? At the inflection point, which is going to be a peak. It's well explained here using DJIA charts not S&P500, but the results are about the same http://seekingalpha.com/article/1102171-where-are-we-in-the-secular-bear-market This aligns very well with the way the overall economy has been moving since that time, and the market has been reflecting a definite contraction in the private economy over the last 13 years. We've talked about that many times here, particular with regard to K-Waves or longer economic cycles. |
2013-05-04T20:12:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/01/buy-in-may-let-it-play/#comment-18070 |
| I do understand, and that part is not going to change overnight. In fact, there really is no change in the message at all between Benedict and Francis - just the delivery vehicle. My point is less about the church and more about the need for leadership on this issue. How about this - if Francis' message hits the mainstream and is repeated I'll be happy - that's what I'm interested in. |
2013-05-03T14:58:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/03/urbi-et-tweeti/#comment-18062 |
| That is a good point - it's always one thing to complain, it's another to envision. That was the lesson of the campaign to oust Pinochet in Chile that I wrote about a little bit ago. Suicide rates are worth looking into, thanks. This is what happens when opportunities close down in a society built around things like following your dreams, etc. What kind of life are we creating? What chances do the young - and the old - really have? It's a very competitive and selfish world right now. I would very much like to see that change. But to what? |
2013-05-03T14:01:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/03/urbi-et-tweeti/#comment-18060 |
| "One cannot worship both God and Mammon" :-) | 2013-05-03T13:58:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/03/urbi-et-tweeti/#comment-18059 |
| Thank you very much! I was expecting great things from Francis, and so far I am not disappointed. It's more about showing the world, especially those of us who care about equity and poverty and unemployment, what leadership looks like. | 2013-05-03T00:38:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/03/urbi-et-tweeti/#comment-18042 |
| It very much is. I think I'm the only person who found this funny, at least in a dark way. On the face of it, this advice seems pretty twisted. | 2013-05-02T12:01:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/01/buy-in-may-let-it-play/#comment-18024 |
| I thought you would like that. :-) It is a strange reason, isn't it? Besides, how long has it been since the place wasn't rigged? | 2013-05-01T03:22:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/01/buy-in-may-let-it-play/#comment-18017 |
| I'll go with the last part, but I do think this run has a lot more steam in it. Then again, this is the third time the S&P has been at this level in 13 years, and the last two ended rather badly. | 2013-05-01T02:42:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/01/buy-in-may-let-it-play/#comment-18015 |
| Update - Consumer Confidence rebounded in April to 68.1, and March was revised up to 60.4. Based on that upward revision alone, I'm calling a 3-0-1 record on 1Q13, but it looks very good for a 4-0 through the second quarter as housing is remaining strong! http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/30/us-usa-economy-confidence-idUSBRE93T0OP20130430 | 2013-04-30T17:39:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-18008 |
| Yes, I agree we are in a superior position to Europe in just about every way - and the one way we are behind you point out well that it's an opportunity if we get our act together. Imagine linking everything together - it's something I've called for before. It's been a long time since I wrote about it, but the need for fast freight systems is easily demonstrated. I also think it's important to note how containerized cargo is almost as important as the internet in fueling the new economy that is being created. I like how you think of this as an opportunity to get people back to work, that's the kind of thinking we should have. Yes, talking about tax cuts here or there to "stimulate" is total BS by comparison! | 2013-04-30T17:26:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-18007 |
| Yes to all, except the EU is about the same size we are. :-) But look at how things are going between these two giants that make up nearly half the world - we are in great shape by comparison! We are not doing all that badly - but we do have to watch things. That's not a terrible position to be in, at least compared with the rest of the developed world. Look at Japan - Yeesh! The belief that government spending is a drag is ludicrous when taken to the extreme, yes, and we have to counter that. There are forms of government spending that are clearly beneficial and/or we are way low on, such as infrastructure. It's clear that an organized health plan of some kind HAS to be an improvement over what we do now. Yes, there are some things we can argue about, but there always are - we have been thrown to the silly side of so many otherwise reasonable disagreements! |
2013-04-30T16:41:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-18005 |
| Absolutely - we have our way as the people who print the world's currency. But that is indeed coming to an end, if slowly, as we reported here a year ago and the effects are just starting to take hold. I think it's time to look back into it, thanks for the reminder. And I've long been a supporter of a global currency as a reference, too. What would that do to us? It would sure end the party. But I am sure that is coming no matter what. Until then, we get to do pretty much what we want. I think it's best to be prudent - and we are in far better shape than most developed nations already. Makes you wonder given our Congress, eh? | 2013-04-30T01:17:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17994 |
| I have written about inequality and how it affects growth several times, most recently last week in Inequality vs Sustainable Growth. But this has always left me cold because the main arguments are based on regression lines across national boundaries and/or time. I have been trying to find a good argument as to why this would be the case, and the traditional arguments for sustainable growth based on savings rates, etc, really don't hold up well. This came to me while reading about the underground economy and how well it is doing. So yes, this is my little attempt at a contribution to the arguments. It's partially baked at this point, so I would appreciate any additions people might have. That's a lot of what we do here in Barataria. :-) | 2013-04-29T21:52:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17991 |
| The article you are thinking about is this one: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/productivity-overrated-as-key-to-growth-report-says/article10961267/ I recommend it highly. This was shared on the Barataria facebook page (like-link on the right!) which I hope everyone likes for all kinds of updates, including news stories I run into that I want to share with all of you! I am making a left-wing Keynesian counter to the standard right-wing debt cycle theory. There is room for both, as you know I believe, but there is clearly an effect in play here. |
2013-04-29T21:47:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17990 |
| I am sure you are right. We are all just speculating here at this point, and it's no substitute for a real study of velocity vs income level. It would be very helpful because it would point to some specific government action, I think. The crashing velocity of the dollar is the biggest problem the Fed faces. | 2013-04-29T21:41:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17988 |
| You're right, we should separate out those two. The velocity of money for poor people has to be around 12, which is to say a month's income goes out in a month - if it isn't higher! | 2013-04-29T16:02:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17984 |
| That number came from Prof. Feige at UW, and he has been following it for years. I trust him, but would still like to see more of his methodology. I will get that to you when I get a chance. I agree that if anything it may be low. The best article on the topic is at the New Yorker: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2013/04/29/130429ta_talk_surowiecki I think that most of the people in this agree with you that it could be higher, which would be something incredible. |
2013-04-29T16:01:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17983 |
| Yes, that is part of the reason I am sure. Food Stamps did become a currency, trading at a discount to face value. It's amazing what "money" becomes when you don't have enough of the greenstuff! | 2013-04-29T14:31:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17980 |
| Thank you! I came to me today while working on something else. A little math on the question of the underground economy and it became obvious that the velocity was at least double the whole economy. | 2013-04-29T01:22:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17977 |
| Changing everything may be the key to getting a new budget together, actually. A whole new system is not a bad idea. I can think of a lot of other ways to improve things, including "zero base" or sunsetting everything in rotation every so many years (5?) and examining them closely. And being able to actually, get this, audit the Pentagon. But these all seem like fantasies until someone actually gets in there and starts trying to make a difference. | 2013-04-27T19:23:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/26/a-capital-idea/#comment-17967 |
| I'm still not really for a balanced budget amendment, but I can imagine one based around this separation, yes. We would still need a procedure for big-ticket expenses such as war, TARP-like situations, and the potential bailout of GM or something (although, if we get stock, it's easily justified as a capital expense anyway). I could imagine a procedure where a supermajority is needed along with the President's assent on a separate bill with no other provisions, for example. So yes, we could go there. I wasn't planning on that, however. :-) |
2013-04-26T18:26:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/26/a-capital-idea/#comment-17962 |
| It's very rare that anyone talks about having a real capital budget. The only thing I could find was that Brookings piece from 2008. So no, it won't get done at this rate. | 2013-04-26T17:19:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/26/a-capital-idea/#comment-17960 |
| Thanks! But there must be more to it than separating out capital and ordinary expenses. I don’t know if you’ve even tried to make sense of the budget, but are there other practices that you think are necessary? | 2013-04-26T01:04:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/26/a-capital-idea/#comment-17951 |
| I don't see anything wrong with running a "deficit" for the purpose of bonding for capital items - the way every state does it. It is not clear to me how much we spend on capital items right now, but my guess is that it's a couple hundred bil at most. So I would say that moving towards balance WHILE we change how we budget to separate out capital and expenses and investing in infrastructure is going to be possible. So I'd raise taxes through major simplification and reform while cutting a lot from the military to pay for it all. The idea is that infrastructure will help the economy so much that every $1 spent on that can have the same beneficial effects of several dollars of military spending. |
2013-04-25T00:13:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17934 |
| I think declining labor participation is probably the key - tax cuts for the wealthy didn't hit until the 80s and the process was well under way by then (to my surprise, frankly). It is an amazing fact of the last ... well, my entire life. I do think that economies are pretty heavily designed - they are a broad social agreement that is influenced by a lot of things. One "agreement" we seem to have institutionalized is the supply-side theory - that money for investment is so very important and worth more or less subsidizing. Cheap capital and socialized risk are hardly ever questioned, at least not in any big way! Equality has simply not made its way into our discussion for a long time. So yes, this is all planned in a certain sense - it reflects the values we hold as a people. Thank you for your contribution, you have me thinking a lot more. I will look into the Phillips, he has done some great stuff I've read in the past. (Barataria is a community effort and I really can't say how much I appreciate how you guys get me thinking about the next piece!) |
2013-04-24T18:37:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17931 |
| Thanks, you are right! I should be looking at disposable income and savings. Those are the key indicators for sustainable growth, I'll bet. As Dan said, I've been a bit too macro lately and it's time to focus on more personal things. Excellent way of looking at it! | 2013-04-24T15:03:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17927 |
| We do need another FDR - and / or a revolution. This cannot continue. And people will have to be engaged to make it happen, one way or the other. | 2013-04-24T05:13:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17918 |
| It is a matter of leadership, and I hope to provide some small measure of it here. It's not a moral issue as much as it is a practical issue - how do we provide good, sustainable growth? That's what I think government is about. And yes, infrastructure is a big part of that! | 2013-04-24T05:12:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17917 |
| This is a very good point. Note that a very simple request got the spreadsheet without any fuss at all. Why was this not done before? The implications of works published by economists are at least as important as anything in natural science, if not moreso - they tend to affect policy, and do it rather quickly. I hope things are changing. Thank you for your comment, this is very important. |
2013-04-23T14:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17911 |
| I largely agree with that. I call this a "restructuring", which is to say that we have to build a new economy more or less from scratch. One feature of Depressions historically (this is about the 5th in US history) is that the economy that emerges is quite a bit different from the one that collapsed. I think we can expect that again. Note that half of the job growth is coming form companies with less than 50 employees. They are the driving engine of the future - they are doing something different. The restructuring is slow, but it's progressing. I see this ending around 2017, largely because each phase of the cycle lasts about as long as the previous and the last boom period was about 1983-2000. It looks like we are more or less on track for that year - barring another meltdown, of course. |
2013-04-23T01:50:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17908 |
| Thanks - yes, I don't want people to think debt is totally unimportant. It's all relative - and frankly right now private debt scares me a LOT more. It is about 4 times as big. | 2013-04-22T20:35:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17905 |
| The Koch Brothers really scare me. They have a very limited sense of reality, which probably comes from the fact that they inherited their money. | 2013-04-22T15:35:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17902 |
| I go between empathy for a bonehead move and a feeling that they stopped error-checking when they had the answer they wanted. We all do that, but ... in this case it's driven policy around the world. Not good. But yes, it's clear that excessive debt is a problem. I just don't like focusing exclusively on public debt - it's all bad. |
2013-04-22T15:34:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17901 |
| It does come back to jobs. I was challenged on facebook to look at sustainable growth, which is more equitable - and I accept that. Jobs are a big part of that sustainability - does everyone have work? Washingtoon? Bleh. The lax regulation is a big problem, yes, and part of a playing field that is not level by any means - and leads to disasters. |
2013-04-22T14:01:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17898 |
| They do go together. But yes, it is creating a society that is always paying the idle who have found themselves controlling the capital that is the problem. We see that in southern Europe right now, too. | 2013-04-22T13:59:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17897 |
| Thank you! | 2013-04-22T02:00:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17887 |
| Thank you! I am also always thinking of other measurements we hear about monthly to include, but this is what I found so far. I'm always open to suggestions! And yes, let's start holding all prognosticators to a high standard - anything else is just BS! |
2013-04-19T18:59:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-17867 |
| Thank you, Sheryl, that is the nicest thing anyone can say! I do try to take the long view, and I think it is important. | 2013-04-19T15:36:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-17864 |
| Thanks! This is a "restructuring" more than a "recovery" and the economy that is being created will be very different. It's being made by all those companies of 50 employees or less that are doing all the hiring - and may one day be the big companies. | 2013-04-19T03:50:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-17858 |
| Thanks! We are still on track for a 2017 end to this "Winter" or Depression period. I am assembling the eBook on the topic now - I think it should be a good one. But this all is the test to show that the progress is still moving ahead - and it is! | 2013-04-19T02:29:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-17855 |
| I would hope the Republicans would learn how unpopular this group is and move appropriately. It's necessary, for sure - and for them as much as the nation. | 2013-04-18T03:36:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17850 |
| Yes, I am longing for the day that small banks, credit unions, et cetera band together and separate themselves from the pirates! That is what it will take. | 2013-04-18T03:34:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17849 |
| It has been going on for a very long time now, and the stakes do only get higher. It will take a revolt of some kind before anything changes, I am sure. | 2013-04-18T03:34:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17848 |
| Thanks! | 2013-04-17T11:35:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17843 |
| Yes, the Iceland example was very much how it has to be done - they nationalized their big banks, kicked everyone at the executive level out, and prosecuted a few of them. Our own FDIC is a pretty good model, too - they often kick out the whole executive ownership of a failed bank on Friday, recapitalize it, sell it, and open again on Monday. I opened with the Henry Ford quote for a reason - they really are just too much. The more anyone knows about the system the more you wanna revolution. The system has to have a way for banks to fail. It's the main way debt is forgiven on bad loans and everyone goes on with their lives. It's how we put economic bubbles and big hangovers in the past. I've said it here before and I'll say it again - I think it's gotten to the point where the sooner JP Morgan fails, the better. They are nothing but a drain on the real economy! I'd rather have Captain Henry Morgan, the pirate, get a federal guarantee on his plunder than give it to these bastards. |
2013-04-17T03:36:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17841 |
| It is. Smaller banks have to peel away from the rest of the industry and demand solid regulation that levels the playing field. | 2013-04-17T03:07:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17839 |
| I would never speculate on something I know nothing about. I only hope not too many people were killed or injured. | 2013-04-15T20:15:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17831 |
| Not at all. :-) | 2013-04-15T19:09:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17829 |
| But it has tradition on its side, and that counts for something. It's the first last haven in a panic. Does this mean the panic is over? I'll wait until it hits $1000 - which some of you think will be soon. :-) | 2013-04-15T19:09:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17828 |
| I was thinking about following gold, but I don't really know that it means a lot. There are so many external things going on. But seeing it fall can't be bad, that much I am sure of. | 2013-04-15T03:19:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17822 |
| I mostly agree, but unlike a normal bubble this one took 11 years of gradual inflation. It wasn't like bitcoin (which I left out of this piece on purpose!) There is a statement of confidence in this, I am sure. Where it winds up, I don't know. | 2013-04-15T02:07:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17819 |
| Dogs can't say very much - they just don't have the range. Maybe yours can say more, but mine is just a bit barky at times. :-) | 2013-04-12T19:06:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/12/cat-talk/#comment-17806 |
| I always thought it was his "name" for George, but you may be right. I have to use it away from George to see what happens - if I can say it right! | 2013-04-12T19:06:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/12/cat-talk/#comment-17805 |
| Tony is a great cat. I always say he's "The World's Most Perfect Cat (tm)", but there's a qualifier in there. The word "cat". :-) | 2013-04-12T02:04:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/12/cat-talk/#comment-17801 |
| Amen! :-) | 2013-04-11T00:10:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/10/banking-and-insurance-should-be-boring/#comment-17793 |
| I think so, Brain, but where will we find a duck and a hose at this hour? | 2013-04-10T04:34:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/10/banking-and-insurance-should-be-boring/#comment-17789 |
| Thanks! | 2013-04-10T02:55:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/10/banking-and-insurance-should-be-boring/#comment-17785 |
| Thanks, I'm just glad you aren't offended by this. :-) I can tell you are responsible more than you are boring but if you can take a joke (or really an over-statement) then that's good with me. :-) | 2013-04-10T01:31:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/10/banking-and-insurance-should-be-boring/#comment-17783 |
| Thank you so much for your stories! I miss the old Perrine as well. It was a magical place. | 2013-04-10T00:48:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/songs-poems/short-stories/cutler/#comment-17781 |
| I don't know what you mean - can you please elaborate? New ways of organizing work are very much what I like to think about, but don't really have any new ideas to add of my own. But it's clear that the old W-2 40 hours stuff is becoming antique. |
2013-04-09T15:51:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17777 |
| Thanks! | 2013-04-09T15:23:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17775 |
| Thanks! Without readers, there's little point to writing - and the discussion makes all my ramblings far more important! | 2013-04-09T02:27:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17772 |
| There are better places to find quality analysis, but most of them are very detailed and some are simply not all that well written. There's just so much to say, especially among the experts who are troubled by what they see and really need to dump it out of their brains. My job is often to simply "translate" what the bond traders and ForEx mavens are writing about - take out the jargon, organize it, and summarize it. It's a much easier job than you might think and really doesn't take that much time. But thank you all the same. I do think that I'm filling a need for good economic information written for the layman. The only thing I really don't understand is why I can't find a full-time job doing this! |
2013-04-08T16:06:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17767 |
| That has to be the best compliment I have ever received, thank you very much! | 2013-04-08T16:03:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17766 |
| Thank you very much! | 2013-04-08T03:31:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17758 |
| Thank you! No, a lot of the time I'm writing about what I can figure out - which is about half of the picture. You guys usually fill in the rest. :-) | 2013-04-08T03:30:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17757 |
| I think we can see that in the numbers. This month was just not good at all! | 2013-04-06T19:51:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/03/revisiting-job-dynamics/#comment-17749 |
| Good point on airlines. Electricity did not create a bubble and that may be because it was less transforming. But that is a good one to look into, you are right. Why not? I think you are right on the tar sands - higher pressure means more trouble. I have never been against the Keystone for most of the reasons given (seriously, we will continue to burn hydrocarbons for a long time) but that is a good reason to be against it. And yes, I think suburban design spells doom, too. It's not a matter of a little more space between houses, it's a matter of many miles to any kind of real "center". Some of that can be retro-fixed but it will be expensive and require a lot of coordination. Some of that is going on, though! |
2013-04-06T19:50:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17748 |
| Thanks! | 2013-04-06T19:47:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/27/in-praise-of-junk/#comment-17747 |
| Yes, that is a good analogy. Except in Groundhog Day Bill Murray's character learned something each time. :-) It's starting to seem very obvious to me that basic wisdom is missing from our world, which is quite chilling. | 2013-04-05T16:42:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17739 |
| Thanks! So many questions. :-) Not every new tech creates a bubble, no. There seem to be more requirements than just tech - for example, it seems that advances in transportation and communication (which are closely linked) are the ones most likely to create bubbles - probably has to do with once disparate markets evening out. Also, there is a matter of timing - the market has to be in the mood to create a bubble. A question I have is "Why didn't jet airplanes create a bubble around 1960?" and the answer seems to be that they came in at the end of a recession and had limited impact on both communication and cargo - but I'm thinking about it. What was before cars? Railroads, in the late 1870s. Tying together diverse markets into one continent-wide one created a huge bubble! I am thinking about bubbles, depressions, and what matters the most. It's never quite the same thing twice, although they do seem to run through the economy in a similar way. I agree that context is always what is missing in daily reporting, and that's why so many of my posts start at ground zero and explain the background. It's setting the scene in storytelling. :-) Good training all around. I worry that I am a bit insulting when I go over what people might already know, so I try to make it both brief and somewhat amusing in its own right (such as putting in a joke or pithy comment). The problem I have with the news is the lack of rigor and discipline. I see so many stories that just don't even come close to answering the who, what, when, where, and why that reporters should have. |
2013-04-05T14:33:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17736 |
| Thanks! I am thinking about what needs to be written, and there are two books in here at least. The main point is that all this stuff over 6 years should be organized into a linear story that makes sense. The popular press baffles me sometimes. How they can miss very obvious stories and still spend so much time on Kardashians, etc. really escapes me. I don't watch much teevee nooze so I really don't know what the average person who relies on that is getting. It seems to me that you'd have to scan a lot of channels to know what is being portrayed across all of them - unless it's quite uniform. I haven't seen local news in decades. |
2013-04-05T13:55:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17734 |
| Many people saw this coming, the bubble was huge. And it was NOT a &*^% "real estate bubble"! Sorry, lost in the moment there. :-) Seriously, this was important and it is worth noting what a terrible job was done reporting on this at the time - as well as since then. |
2013-04-05T04:21:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17730 |
| Thank you. Yes, it was weird how the mainstream press completely ignored the many moves by the Fed at that time - I still don't understand it or how people still claim that "no one saw this coming". It was bizarre. My point is that disruptive change is disruptive. There's a yin and a yang to it, and yesterday's "productivity gains" are today's "unemployment". This is what fuels long term business cycles (Kondratieff Waves) and there is a downside to it all. The popular myth that disruptive technology is always good is very dangerous (and quite stupid). |
2013-04-05T03:45:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17728 |
| Yes, comments were wonky while I was gone all day. I don't know what went wrong. Email me next time you have a problem! If you see new jobs being created then that has to be taken into account. Generally, a lot are lost and created, which is the "churn", yes. So it may go both ways. The net creation is a pretty small number next to the total churn! |
2013-04-04T17:03:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/03/revisiting-job-dynamics/#comment-17726 |
| I don't know yet. Two things stand out - they were blaming the lack of new construction jobs on the end of Hurricane Sandy, but I think that generally bad weather in March was also a factor there. Also, bigger employers really throttled back their hiring, which has gone unexplained. | 2013-04-04T17:01:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/03/revisiting-job-dynamics/#comment-17725 |
| Thank you. Yes, this does seem like the endgame forming. It is sickening to watch. Here is an article from the Telegraph on Slovenia. The headline that says Slovenia "will not be the next Cyprus" says it all, in that what has to be denied most vociferously is usually the truth. | 2013-04-02T23:13:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17713 |
| You get to crow on this one, for sure. Their behavior has been outrageous. | 2013-04-02T23:10:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17712 |
| A very good question! How do we push the big ol' Reset Button? I've talked about this a lot, but there has to be some kind of debt forgiveness involved in this. That also means that the ECB will wind up printing more Euros, but we came to these conclusions long ago. They would also have to have some agreement as to how things will be different going forward - that is, we really did reboot the system and we're starting clean (and you can't expect more bailout in the future!). But it is something like that, for sure. There HAS to be some kind of debt forgiveness in here. I proposed the auction method of doing it, which is to say letting some market forces dictate what is written down, but that may not be enough. And what is done has to take into account both the moral hazard ("we're not doing this again") and the problems in the union that allowed it to happen in the first place (borrowing way ahead of their capacity). | 2013-04-01T15:25:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17702 |
| So many questions! :-) Let me do this in order: I did write about the sense of panic rising, and you're right that this is an expression of that. I noted the rising panic at the Davos Conference and more explicitly later discussing worldwide intervention by central banks. Yes, there is a sense of growing panic. As for nations handling this by themselves first, that has been the standard - although it's better put that they get as many pounds of flesh out of them as possible. That's the nature of austerity in Europe, and it hasn't been working. This time they did try to do something different, which was interesting, but it was so poorly thought out. I guess you are right to mention that this is still standard "each central bank on their own" policy because they have not actually abandoned anything even if they are more squishy on austerity - which everyone knows isn't working. How will this affect us? Most big banks here took steps to insulate themselves from Europe a long time ago. What I worry about are all those Credit Default Swaps that JP Morgan (and to a lesser extend Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs) have invested in. Some of them are insurance against European defaults. So far the defaults have been carefully controlled and not enough to kill anyone (except, apparently, Cyprus) but we can see how the dominoes fall slowly. If this turns into a big Euro failure I would think JP Morgan is on the hook for a LOT of it, and as noted here they are not as healthy as they should be to start with. Good questions, all worth another 800 word essay frankly. We have entered a new phase of Euro problems and it is worth thinking through. I think that at the very least any calculations of the Worst Case Scenario have to be re-done. | 2013-04-01T15:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17700 |
| I say it's the end of the Euro because the promises of unity have been broken. More to the point, the ECB has been slow to print more Euros because they see their job as defending the value of the currency - but to Cyprus, at least, it's worth something different. Breaking those promises has to shake faith - and as Adam Smith noted all money is in the end a matter of faith. I hope that the larger nations see Cyprus as an anomaly, but I think they may not. Any reasonable Spaniard must think about keeping a few thousand Euros on hand now in cash - that's money out of the system. The implications will play out for months. My main point is that this is going to be far more expensive than the 5.8B that it would have taken to just bail out Cyprus all together in the first place. I hope you are right and this is not the end of the Euro as we know it. I really hope I am wrong here. But this was a major turning point in my mind - but yes, it's the minds of the average Italian or Spaniard that matter more. |
2013-04-01T14:58:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17699 |
| I honestly have no idea what comes next. I don't know how they can repair this damage. | 2013-04-01T02:43:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17696 |
| I appreciate someone defending Pope Benedict XVI, and you are right. I have not read Caritas in Veritate (Love in Truth) but seen a few selections which were pretty good about developed/rich people giving back to the world and encouraging fairness through more than just charity. Thank you, a good addition! |
2013-03-29T16:10:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17680 |
| Don't worry, we won't tell your mom. :-) The role of women in the church is the one thing where Catholicism is very far behind any Protestant faith, and it does stand out especially. Many very conservative denominations are still accepting of women as pastors. So yes, that does seem important just by contrast. | 2013-03-29T16:06:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17679 |
| Excellent point. Here's to a good renewing. Seeing the church become irrelevant would be painful, IMHO. They do too many good things that can't be completely dropped, and it's hard to imagine a secular organization being as dedicated and efficient. | 2013-03-29T14:55:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17674 |
| Thank you for your kind words. A living saint is a lot to ask, but what's important is to try - and set an example for everyone. I'm seeing that now and I love it! I will keep mixing up the social stuff and the economics - I believe they very much go together. An economy is nothing more than the sum total of what we literally "value", after all - and it starts with values. |
2013-03-29T14:54:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17673 |
| Alan, you and I have the same thoughts on so many things it's chilling. I completely agree on how Catholicism is practiced in daily life here in the developed world, but I have also see the good works done and I can't imagine a world without someone doing that. It is a lot to depend on but it is important. Yes, I want a Pope that comes from that side of things and leads the Church more in that direction! I think we both have the same take on where we are now - hopeful that we got it right this time. We'll just have to see, won't we? |
2013-03-29T14:52:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17672 |
| I have not heard that. I have heard questions about his apparent neutrality during the "Dirty War", but that has been countered / forgiven by many of those who suffered so I consider that a non-issue. No matter what, a full "truth and reconciliation" is in order for the whole Church on the issue of bad priests, and I know that something is going to come from this new Pope. I'm waiting to see what it is before I tell you how I feel. The Church does have a lot to overcome. | 2013-03-29T02:37:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17668 |
| I have no problem with setting a high bar, especially for "recovering Catholics". I think the Church should be set to a high standard. But what I'll tell you is that I like what I have seen so far - and that even if all he provides is some solid leadership it's something the world sorely needs. | 2013-03-29T01:13:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17666 |
| That's what I was discussing with the liability outstanding - and yes, there is a lot of pressure to keep rates low more or less forever. I think that will be the norm for a long time. But a little bit of managable risk is a good thing, yes! | 2013-03-28T01:35:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/27/in-praise-of-junk/#comment-17661 |
| I prefer being upbeat when I can. :-) | 2013-03-28T01:34:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/27/in-praise-of-junk/#comment-17660 |
| Thanks! It's another sign of a turnaround. There are many. | 2013-03-27T03:47:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/27/in-praise-of-junk/#comment-17648 |
| Yes, that's what we need! :-) | 2013-03-26T17:31:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17644 |
| Yes, Glass-Steagall would at least isolate Chase from this disaster - and make it much harder for them to paper up their problems. | 2013-03-26T17:30:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17643 |
| Hear that, everyone, I'm back to being Mr. Darkness! :-) Seriously, don't be too depressed - we need to take action, and a lot of people are already very alarmed. I think there's a race on right not to reign these guys in before they do real damage. Let's see how it goes. | 2013-03-25T14:40:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17630 |
| Part of the problem for the media is that the larger JPM problem is very complex - it's clear that even JPM doesn't fully understand their exposure. It's hard to report on this stuff, especially with financial reporters who are not all that well versed in the area. They need "experts" to interview that can deliver the story. | 2013-03-25T14:39:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17629 |
| It is starting to scare me in a big way, too. I don't have anything more specific than these trades last year, but it occurs to me that they are rolling the dice harder and harder all the time - and not having bigger profits at the end of the quarter. Why? Are they taking bigger bets to cover bigger losses in other areas we don't know about? Cheap money will encourage risky behavior, no doubt. That's part of what we're seeing here. But why don't they have the profits that would go along with a big success? For all their advantages they must not be making big hits. That's scary. |
2013-03-25T14:37:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17628 |
| Given the number of people in finance that are horrified by JPM, I think this is a major turning point. I have also heard a lot of bad things about Chase, their commercial bank arm (thanks to the repeal of Glass-Steagal!). This is often cited as a reason why JPM is not a bad bet despite the obviously risky position internationally - they have very good cash flow from Chase. Going after the Chase arm is hitting them at their most vulnerable, I think. |
2013-03-25T04:10:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17624 |
| Thank you. And yes, I'm more appalled by the media every day. | 2013-03-22T18:31:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17615 |
| Update: Here is an excellent article on "The Price of Evil at JP Morgan". It tells us a bit more about why JPM needs this - largely to cover their own incompetence. I do think that taken together there are many signs that JPM is on the verge of failure. | 2013-03-22T17:15:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17613 |
| Yes, this is really bad stuff. I think JP Morgan is desperate - I wonder how bad things are there. I did call this about a year ago, actually more like 18 months, at least as the story to watch. I didn't become convinced that things had turned around until last summer. Slow, steady progress is not a bad thing at all! |
2013-03-22T16:16:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17612 |
| MAY be the biggest stories. Here we go - A strong turnaround in jobs will be punctuated with job gains by the young, there is no doubt. And I think that this will be a big story this year if the trends continue. As for the currency war, this is a harder story. I worry that corporate profits will suffer from a strong USD, but more importantly I think we will see a lot of stories about travel abroad if this keeps up - which is to say not enough stories about how it's hurting manufacturing. Americans are used to a strong USD so this isn't much of a story, but if it goes into more QE later in the year (as I expect) that will be a potential story, yes. Repealing Dodd-Frank may yet become a story, but I don't know what form it will take. This has a long way to play out, but it is clear that the Republicans are willing to lead the way for their big investment bank buddies. Yes, this could be a big story - and I really hope it is. |
2013-03-22T02:30:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17608 |
| They got re-elected largely through Gerrymandering - they owned far too many state legislatures. Disgusting, isn't it? We should remember that 6 Democrats went along with this, however, so no one is clean. But we ALL have to insist on better to stop this. |
2013-03-22T02:25:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17607 |
| You are most welcome! I love this song, and I cry every time I play it. I find it so beautiful that words cannot describe it. | 2013-03-22T02:24:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17606 |
| Say what you want here. :-) Yes, the Ag Committee. Isn't that just "special"? I don't want to be known only for good news, but when I see it coming I'll report it. Hey, I was the first to call this a "Depression" and I was accused of being Mr. Downer for a few years - this is my make-up call, OK? :-) Seriously, things are looking up - but there are serious threats. The worst one right now is in our own government. That is really, really bad. |
2013-03-22T02:23:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17605 |
| A few additional notes are called for: I have been told that futbol fans still use "Chile, la alegría ya viene!" as a chant when the national team is playing. That sounds simply wonderful! It's worth noting, too, that "alegría" doesn't really mean happiness - it translates better as rejoicing or something much more active. I used the translation "happiness" only because it seems to be the universal way to refer to this song en Inglés. Also, here are the lyrics with a google translate into English after them: Chile, la alegría ya viene (bis) Porque digan lo que digan yo soy libre de pensar. Porque siento que es la hora de ganar la libertad, Hasta cuando ya de abusos, es el tiempo de cambiar. Porque basta de miserias voy a decir que no. Porque nace el arco iris después de la tempestad, Porque quiero que florezca mi manera de pensar, Porque sin la dictadura la alegría va a llegar, Porque pienso en el futuro voy a decir que no. Vamos a decir que no, oh con la fuerza de mi voz, Vamos a decir que no, yo lo canto sin temor, Vamos a decir que no, vamos juntos a triunfar, Vamos a decir que no, por la vida y por paz. Terminemos con la muerte, Es la oportunidad de vencer la violencia, Con las armas de la paz. Porque creo que mi Patria necesita dignidad. Por un Chile para todos, vamos a decir que no. Vamos a decir que no, oh con la fuerza de mi voz, Vamos a decir que no, yo lo canto sin temor, Vamos a decir que no, vamos juntos a triunfar, Vamos a decir que no, por la vida y por la paz. Chile, la alegría ya viene. Chile, happiness is coming (repeated) Because whatever they say I am free to think. Because I feel that it is time to gain freedom, With the abuse is the time to change. Because of the miseries I'll just say no. Because there is a rainbow after the storm, Because I want my thinking to flourish, Because without the dictatorship happiness will come, Because I think about the future - I will say no. Let's say no, oh, by the power of my voice, Let's say no, I sing it without fear, Let's say no, we succeed together, Let's say no, for life and peace. Get over death This is an opportunity to overcome violence With weapons of peace. Because I think my country needs dignity. For a Chile for everyone, we will say no. Let's say no, oh by the power of my voice, Let's say no, I sing it without fear, Let's say no, we succeed together, Let's say no, for life and for peace. Chile, happiness is coming. |
2013-03-21T19:25:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17598 |
| You are right. Let's get something started! For a first pass, I'm thinking of how to support the Simpson-Bowles "Fix the Debt" group. | 2013-03-21T19:05:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17597 |
| (yes, but I never talk about my private life here ... :-) ) Selling the "No" the way they sold a new cola was dealt with very well, I think, and it left us to make our own opinion about the situation. I haven't digested that part yet, to be honest. But reaching deep down and calling upon the most basic impulses of good people was so very important - and that's the lesson I hope we can learn it. It's so easy to demand retribution - or even demand justice - but the real justice comes in not letting those who abuse power hurt anyone anymore. |
2013-03-21T03:34:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17593 |
| Yes, that's basically it, but to really get people excited about the future it does take a positive. No one ever stayed excited about austerity, which is a lot of the reason we're in this situation, yes. | 2013-03-21T03:30:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17592 |
| I like foreign movies, generally. I think they are pretty heavily screened before we get them, so what arrives here is only the best. There's a lot to learn from other peoples' experiences, IMHO, and film is one way to do it! | 2013-03-21T03:29:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17591 |
| I had not heard this song or seen this commercial before. But we didn't have social media to share things back then. We do now, and we can still learn the lessons! | 2013-03-20T04:50:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17581 |
| I believe you are right, especially in that this has been shown time and time again. But it takes skill and determination to avoid revenge negativity, especially among challengers. But when the power responds with a character attack, they are in fact showing weakness - something which came out rather plainly in the movie. A positive message is essential for the Democrats to be resurgent. It would help to be backed with real legislation and a solid agenda, but the movement has to be positive. That I am sure of. Look at the Minnesota "No" campaign this last time. We could have dwelt on homophobia and so on - but didn't. And it worked, yes? |
2013-03-20T04:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17580 |
| I think there is a resurgence in alternative thought. People are looking for new ideas - given that the old ones appear to have hit a lot of dead-ends. It's a good sign, IMHO. | 2013-03-19T01:09:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17569 |
| Thanks! I will stay at it. I'll figure out some way to reach the middle class with the message. | 2013-03-18T17:28:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17566 |
| I won't say who, but the why is easy - it isn't "punchy" enough. It's too dull. So there. I like being in balance, so don't call me Mr. Sunshine. :-) This is a tricky thing and it could still go bad on us, but there is reason to be hopeful. Besides, have you seen the "New Deal" proposal from the Progressive Caucus? Finally, a real proposal for tackling the problem! |
2013-03-18T15:26:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17562 |
| We never revisit anything in the media, and everything has to be topical to "right now". I am very upset about this. I heard someone just the other day refer to a "housing bubble" as if it was something on its own, not part of a credit bubble, and I couldn't believe it. We're so deliberately stupid as a collective people, yet individuals aren't this dumb. How can we demand better? | 2013-03-18T15:25:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17561 |
| Too big to jail is something I am still struggling to get a handle on. We are so screwed if this holds. I wrote about it briefly, but ... this is really becoming policy? Wow. The media today is very conservative and cautious. I don't know what to do to reach the middle class with my difficult message. |
2013-03-18T15:21:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17560 |
| Thanks - I could stuff some links in here at least - I have them handy. Graphs ... well, they are a bit more bulky. LOL on the word "Managed" - I do see what you mean. :-) |
2013-03-18T15:19:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17559 |
| This is a lot of what I mean by "Managed Depression" - the worst has been taken care of by the system we have, but there are still awful effects lingering out there. People are working and not making it all the time, which is very scary. There is a lot more barter (trade of services, like painting!) and underground cash economy going on, too. It's very hard to quantify all of this, but I am sure that history will call this a Depression in the end. Mainstream media appears to be scared of the "D" word, however, for now. | 2013-03-18T14:52:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17555 |
| Thank you. I also think this is very important, and pretty much at the core of what it means to be Irish-American. We may not have the hyphen out every day, but somewhere deep inside of us there is a memory across generations. We must be true to that. | 2013-03-15T19:08:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/15/st-patricks-day-3/#comment-17548 |
| Thank you! St Patrick's is a very special holiday for me. | 2013-03-15T18:31:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/15/st-patricks-day-3/#comment-17546 |
| That is a very simple and practical regulation/law that I could get behind. Thanks, a very good addition! I'm not one to think about consumer regulation so this sort of thing goes right past me most of the time. | 2013-03-14T16:54:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17536 |
| OK, let me back up a bit .... I think we can break this down into two questions: 1) If the Fed does another QE (and I think they will, whether it's a good idea or not, given the MZMV curve above) what should they do to get the cash out into the economy more effectively than they have? We've seen them try buying mortgage backed securities, and one friend of mine suggested the Milton Friedman "helicopter drop" of cash. What else? 2) What can be done to reduce the overall debt load and help push the reset button on the old economy that has already failed? This could be another long list if we had an old fashioned brainstorming session. Bonus points if you can work the Moral Hazard into your responses. :-) |
2013-03-14T04:03:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17533 |
| That may be true - but make no mistake it's affecting their wallets now. And when the revolution comes ... well, we have to at least develop a credible threat there. | 2013-03-14T01:07:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17532 |
| But my main point is that the Fed is clearly at least going to contemplate more quantitative easing - and if they do that they damned well better find a better way to make use of it than what they have been doing so far. New ideas on this topic are important. | 2013-03-13T04:01:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17521 |
| A good point. It's been a while since I discussed the moral hazard. Banks and the stock market have become dependent on free cash to keep things going. I think that the constantly declining velocity shows this pretty clearly. Yes, that was a bad omission. I'll do better. :-) | 2013-03-13T03:44:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17520 |
| Thanks, and I try to not be too positive. There's always the Federal Government to bring me down. Seriously, it makes my head hurt to understand just what this means - but none of it can be good. Inflation does seem inevitable, and that is another way out of this mess. It's hard to imagine that being as well managed as this depression, however. At some point we're Brasil (and, the way things are going they are us, koo-koo-kajoob?) |
2013-03-13T03:24:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17518 |
| (really, you don't have to swear) Certainly, we can regulate away penalties and that would help a lot. Eliminating interest rate charges is much harder to do unless we develop a much broader usury law. The whole idea of the Fed's zero interest policy was to lower interest rates, but that has rarely been passed on to the consumers as they should be. It's possible to make your plan happen, sure. It would be pretty hard to craft it but I'll give it some thought. These new rules could be made to apply to declared debt that is put into a program of some kind, that would certainly be easier. People could apply for these protections as an alternative to bankruptcy. That would be much easier to implement. |
2013-03-13T03:01:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17516 |
| Thanks! I do think this is important, and I do think that more QE will be around the corner if this keeps up. I don't see any way other than more and more stimulus - but it's clearly not working the way they are doing it now. | 2013-03-13T02:27:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17514 |
| Thanks, happened almost by accident when things went down today for no reason. I'll keep working on it. :-) How did this happen? I am asking that very question, and I think it has a lot to do with loose money policies over the last 30 years. The last boom was defined by a big consumer binge - and we have to ask who was doing the borrowing & who was doing the lending - and how much did the lenders have to pay for the money they got versus what those consumers paid. Is the system rigged? Yes and no - some of it is horribly rigged, but the greater economy is pretty wide open to anyone with skills. I am thinking about this, yes. I'm looking for your help with that, as always. :-) |
2013-03-11T21:01:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17504 |
| I am working on the format problem, thanks! A very good point about belief in the system. If this message gets out and sticks, people will no longer feel that the rich might be them someday - and be much less willing to back tax cuts, etc. You're right - the whole paradigm breaks down if those in power are not careful. |
2013-03-11T16:57:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17502 |
| I am not a fan of PuffHo and their free labor, that is not a sustainable model. How will we get the word out on bigger topics that don't lend themselves to another piece like this on a blog? A good question. | 2013-03-11T14:27:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17500 |
| Yes, you have an excellent point. This is only a start to me - but we're talking about inequality for the first time. I don't think anyone watching this would scream "socialist!" in response. OK, then, how can this be made shorter and much more fun? A good question. |
2013-03-11T14:25:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17499 |
| No, the modern concept of pooled investment. It's an interesting system developed to get around the lack of interest payments as a standard. | 2013-03-11T14:24:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-17498 |
| So how would we go about redistributing the wealth? Short of a revolution I can't imagine how we would even do such a thing (not commenting on its desirability at all). | 2013-03-11T02:16:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17493 |
| I'd like to work this out amongst us, if we could. We have a lot of good ideas here. | 2013-03-11T02:14:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17492 |
| Thanks. The cycles are always there, and big investors always write about them. It doesn't really go away. | 2013-03-08T21:30:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17479 |
| Yes, there are primary companies and a lot of small ones that feed into them - the auto industry is the best example. I wrote about this a while ago, but more about Ohio as a whole state. I've been worried about the place. But yes, that's how it goes. As for longer term planning, it's entirely possible and there are many approaches to making it work. The business cycles, for example, are something I've been talking about here for at least a couple of years - and we know something about what the next one will look like. We could do a MUCH better job with long range planning, especially with infrastructure. Sorry about the hassles with work, that's terrible. And I do hope we get something good together in health care, finally. I'm not watching it all that closely, because this stuff really gets detailed, but I will keep something of an eye on it. | 2013-03-08T20:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17475 |
| That would be a good thing to see, thanks! We know so little about the rest of the world here, it's chilling. I would like to know more about the Arab Spring in particular - this may have generation long implications, even if the immediate effects are slow to come on. | 2013-03-08T19:39:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17472 |
| Excellent point on the CCI - just because someone has a job does not mean they are ready to spend every dollar from their last paycheck and max out the credit card again. I hadn't thought this through enough, but these start-ups are all rather tenuous and at 40% of new jobs we have to regard all those employees as "wary". Excellent call, thank you! |
2013-03-08T16:54:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17468 |
| YES! Debt is the main issue, and I have been thinking about what needs to be done here. Obviously, we're not going to have a "Jubilee" as I proposed before given that the establishment will never make this cost them $$$ so directly. But there has to be a way out of the debt, and that is what it will take to have a real turn-around. One answer, of course, is inflation. I think we should be ready for that. | 2013-03-08T16:52:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17467 |
| I got that quote from the UK Guardian. I think there's a link up there somewhere to it - they were running a "live blog" as world leaders reacted to Chavez;s death. | 2013-03-08T05:23:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17463 |
| Thanks! Being respectful means to me that you start by acknowledging that people come to the conclusions and opinions they hold dear for a reason. If you assume they are simply stupid in some way you are insulting them - and it will come out eventually. In this world we all have to work together at some point, and that means we have to respect each other. We don't have to agree, that's silly. So I try to be respectful and accept that people do things for reasons I don't understand but are very dear to them. In the case of Hugo Chavez the guy didn't steal and did back down when told he went to far by the people. That means something important, and he should have credit for that. I don't agree with him, but he did accomplish a lot - and it's worthy of respect. The one thing I really don't understand is why respect seems so difficult for so many people today. |
2013-03-08T05:22:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17462 |
| How about 42%? 2% inflation and 4% real return over 6 years. :-) Yes, it's a big number. I think we might be back near there in 4 years unless rates go up quickly - which I doubt. So there may be a lot of potential here, and the continuing rise of corporate profits will be something to watch in 2013. Incidentally, this will probably tempt Democrats to tax corporations more as the year wears on. I'm not totally against that, but the current structure has to change before I'll back anything. |
2013-03-08T04:23:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17461 |
| I just can't take a hard line on socialism, knowing how important cooperation is when a nation is rising to developed status. The example of Japan in the 60s was duplicated brilliantly in South Korea and is now being put to work in Malaysia and Indonesia. Brazil followed a similar path, and it's worked well for them. I guess the bottom line is that I would never want to dictate "the right way" to people in a situation very different from mine. I can complain about a lack of free speech - I do feel that's a universal right, at least in politics. But the rest - yes, they can have it. :-) |
2013-03-06T16:16:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17442 |
| I never knew what to make of Chavez. I do find myself grieving his passing because I don't know what's next for Venezuela and the region. I cheer for them and wish them all the best. It seems like Chavez's regime is something they had to pass through - so what's next? | 2013-03-06T03:12:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17437 |
| I totally agree. | 2013-03-04T22:14:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/04/austerity-goes-down/#comment-17425 |
| Mainly, I'm disgusted beyond words. What a bunch of losers posing as a government. | 2013-03-04T20:17:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/04/austerity-goes-down/#comment-17423 |
| Ha! I guess I am like Krugman when the debate gets this polarized. I've never liked his call for more spending without being carefully targeted to things that transform the economy, but given where we are we can't be picky. The reactionaries are a serious problem. They can't be allowed to have so much power, either here or in Europe. It's very sad that it comes down to this. Good luck on the new gig, and sad that you're one of us who can't get health care. That will change in a year - we just have to hold on a bit longer. Yes, I'm watching the legislature and should say more about what's going on there. |
2013-03-04T15:29:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/04/austerity-goes-down/#comment-17418 |
| This should be a good thing, and I can'[t wait to see it happen! | 2013-03-04T02:04:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17407 |
| The Grand Avenue Streetcar has not been seriously considered, but it should be. The 63 bus is an important commuter bus and it should be easy to evaluate for upgrade. My hunch is that it can be justified, but we have to see just what cost per mile they come up with in this study. Remember, no one has installed one in St Paul yet so a lot is up in the air on that - it may prove to be a bad idea for a number of reasons. But - this is the important point - we are about to find out! I also heavily favor streetcars when the number of passengers shows it is reasonable, but there are other considerations. It may not fit well on West 7th, for example, even with enough passengers. |
2013-03-01T16:07:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17387 |
| They laid out where there are big draws for employment, etc and where there are a lot of "transit dependent" people. Then, everyone was invited to help them identify important things they might have missed. This is not about "spurring development" (is development an ass or a steed? why do you have to "spur" it?), this is about serving. That's why I'm enthusiastic! | 2013-03-01T16:05:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17386 |
| Usually they have been - but this seemed different. I know what was said to them and we'll see if it is reflected in the process. What I can tell you is that the engineers and planners engaged everyone in plain English, and that was new enough to be remarkable. | 2013-03-01T16:03:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17385 |
| It is much better. They really seem to understand the importance of being efficient with scarce transit dough. I really do think this will work out well. | 2013-03-01T03:55:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17379 |
| Thanks. :-) | 2013-02-28T02:21:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/27/plain-talk/#comment-17366 |
| Amen! But I'm still trying to get people to wake the eff up, in the (sort of) words of the great philosopher Samuel L. Jackson. :-) | 2013-02-28T02:21:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/27/plain-talk/#comment-17365 |
| Thanks. It was both a long time ago and really not that long. | 2013-02-25T16:37:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/25/back-to-the-future/#comment-17353 |
| Amen! | 2013-02-25T04:57:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/25/back-to-the-future/#comment-17343 |
| Listening to and reading the whole address, I was surprised how deep it really is. It highlights not just how far we have fallen but how so much of it was anticipated. Even by a lazy lightweight? Wowsa. | 2013-02-25T04:35:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/25/back-to-the-future/#comment-17341 |
| UPDATE - Einhorn has won his Federal suit against Apple, meaning that there will be no vote on a bundled resolution that limits the Apple Board's ability to release new shares of stock. It's largely meaningless, however, in the bigger fight - and gets Einhorn no closer to his "iPref" shares with a perpetual 4% interest rate (which is still a really dumb idea for Apple). | 2013-02-22T21:48:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17336 |
| I, for one, hope that this comes up at the shareholder's annual meeting - and expect that it will. Apple is moving away from Foxcon, but that only leaves unemployment in their wake. Yes, whose money is all this? Shareholders? Workers? Or is it the sole property of this might beast called "Apple" that as we all know is not really a person no matter how law defines them? |
2013-02-22T19:14:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17333 |
| Thank you very much! I have been thinking about this in broader historical terms, as I tend to. The great industrialists like Rockefeller and Carnegie had many opposing forces to deal with, especially unions and government. But there was an intense rivalry with investors - the group that ruined railroads with over speculation and plummeted the nation into the Long Depression in the 1880s. The tension is that a new product creates new markets, which is to say new opportunities for speculation and sales. Who controls that market - the manufacturer or the market itself? That has been an age old question. Today, we have to inject the consumer into that to form a more complex triangular tug of war, so history doesn't teach us everything. Note, for example, what no one has said anything about so far - Apple's Foxcon contract in China that proved embarrassing for low labor standards. We see the pull of worker rights expressed as bad PR (similar to the old days) but the tension came in the form of consumer action. Interesting ... Who runs a company like Apple - shareholders, Apple, or consumers? Ultimately it's a bigger view of what a "market" is - but Apple does know how to manage their long-term focus the best of all the groups fighting for a piece of the action, IMHO. |
2013-02-22T17:09:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17331 |
| Thanks, that was what I was trying to do. Well, I had to understand it first. | 2013-02-22T05:09:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17328 |
| I think I agree all around. This is bizarre stuff. But if it winds up confirming that a pile of cash is not necessarily a target we have a precedent that might change things - that's what I care about. | 2013-02-22T03:40:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17326 |
| Good point. And that is a great excuse, if for no other reason than it shows how variable things are AND what to watch to understand the variability. Why not? | 2013-02-21T18:43:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/20/streamin/#comment-17318 |
| Thanks! | 2013-02-21T18:42:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/20/streamin/#comment-17317 |
| And thank you for it! ;-) | 2013-02-20T03:25:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/20/streamin/#comment-17297 |
| Krugman is right, IMHO, and this is a classic Depression in that sense at least. A while ago I did a piece on an analysis of income disparity and how it appears to slow growth in all economies around the world - with China starting to experience a big problem. This is what it's all about, IMHO. How do we close the gap? I'm quite tired of people saying "Education!" automatically because that's nowhere near enough. We need opportunity. I still believe that starts with making real, physical things in manufacturing but I have yet to be able to prove it. However, those are good jobs where skills can be developed over a lifetime as well as having a lot of spinoff potential for research, etc. To me, it's a question of how much value the job actually adds to society in the end. A shortage of jobs that add a lot of value puts a pinch on those that add less - like reporters and musicians. I'd hate to think that everyone has to add a lot of value, as that would be one cold society, but we need more value added per worker all around. And that means making stuff - for at least a lot of people. |
2013-02-20T00:24:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17295 |
| That is a very good question, and one I can't answer. Pensions are traditionally funded as they go, not like Social Security. But government pensions are a bit different. This does seem like a huge problem that will show up in the next few years given that there is going to be slow growth. It's worth thinking through a lot more. Growth of 2% is probably not enough to fund anyone's retirement based on current plans. |
2013-02-19T02:25:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17285 |
| You hit my perspective squarely on as usual - if nothing else, a curb in spending so that it's not running away could keep TBill rates lower and really help prevent the crisis. However, I'm still to the left of you on creating real growth and we do have to find ways of making that happen. It's a difficult balance at best. I think the middle ground would be carefully targeted spending in key areas, as I've said before. | 2013-02-18T16:50:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17280 |
| Excellent comment all around. Patience is rewarded these days, even when it looks like it's time to get out of a bad investment. I have two problems with an S&P500 index fund. One is that I'm starting to consider Warren Buffett's axiom that you should invest in what you can see first, which is to say that you have to manage risk close at hand. Small banks seem to be doing that lately and I don't see how small investors can be different. The other problem is that real returns of 2% or less are going to be with us, and that's hardly the way to build to retirement - there will be a reckoning. I am looking for good examples of local investment clubs that allow some diversity and give small investors a chance to do what Buffett suggested. If you have any ideas please pass them on! |
2013-02-18T16:48:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17279 |
| There always is. It's not about money, it's about talent and work. | 2013-02-18T04:26:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17273 |
| The rise in the stock market is a bit puzzling. I think that money is entering stocks because it has nowhere else to go - but I don't see this going on forever. Without solid profits the PE ratios will get way out of whack and we'll see a correction. So I didn't want to say anything about that - it's very hard to read, IMHO. | 2013-02-18T04:25:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17272 |
| Thanks. I think the goal should be to get everyone to where they see money as a tool. Some don't have enough of it to think that far ahead, some others have too much of it and see it as a way of keeping score. But the real ticket has to be that this is how we bring happiness to our lives. That takes some long-term planning and strategy, which I wish we'd teach more in schools. But we can talk about it as a people and fill in a lot of gaps. Far too much of popular culture is taken up with the keeping score view on money. As we enter a low-growth new economy that's just poison. | 2013-02-16T17:10:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17265 |
| Thank you, and I am trying to "translate" important concepts out of policy-speak and into something that makes sense in the real world. Not only should that engage people, but it should keep the policy makers focused on what is important. The jargon is very killing - and at times I think that people are blindly applying whatever "their tribe" says is the right thing to do. But yes, what goes into that "overhead"? Is it really all unavoidable cost? The short answer is no, and I'd hate to have us define a standard best suited for a bleak hand-to-mouth existence. But people can do a lot to cut their own costs substantially. Fuel, and cars in general, is a huge one that we're only scratching at (but there is great progress!). The latest tech like cell phones is another that is adding onto our perceived "overhead" - do we really need that? Much of this will change slowly. No, we can't just buy a more fuel efficient car until the 1997 Ford Escort is really dead, and we can't just up and move if we have a job where we are - besides, places with low cost of living are probably places with higher unemployment that drives that. But people will change their lives and they will move around. In the meantime, policy that acknowledges the overhead is about all we can do to make things reasonably "fair". And we can keep talking about what that means. |
2013-02-16T17:06:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17264 |
| Dan, thank you. Perhaps I should write more about how I've had to make it through lean times, although I said a lot a few years ago in the "On the Margin" series (on the right). I think it is important for those of us who are on the edge to share our stories and remove the stigma attached to it - it seems to me like a first step towards organizing and being recognized. You are right - many people burn themselves out quite young just trying to get by. It's a huge problem as they get to my age (47), still many years from retirement. How do we make it? Sometimes, it's a mystery. Sometimes it takes help. I like to joke that my financial adviser is Blanche duBois ("I have always depended on the kindness of strangers."). But it does seem to work out, at least mostly. Thank you again, we all need to talk about this a lot more. |
2013-02-16T01:15:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17259 |
| It's so. :-) | 2013-02-15T18:58:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17254 |
| The thing is, if people working still qualify for public assistance we have a problem. I agree that we shouldn't put public policy on the backs of small employers, but a reasonable threshold is justified. There is no reason that we should use public money to subsidize retail, which is essentially what we are doing now. Work should be encouraged, and if the pay is really low and doesn't get you off food stamps then what is the point of it? I do want to make this part of a trade-off. Lowering overhead is one thing, but making sure that small biz has the appropriate breaks to be able to fund this is quite reasonable, IMHO. I think there are ways to make this happen. |
2013-02-15T17:01:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17251 |
| Yes, Obama is at $9 and that is a big leap. I should have noted that in the piece. It's a lot better than $7.25 but we should make the case for a lot more - about double the increase he is proposing! I think a somewhat arbitrary standard is called for, yes, but once we agree on it we can go from there. So many things could be triggered by this standard, including benefits and so on. It would make a lot of sense. |
2013-02-15T16:47:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17249 |
| You can say bullshit in the comments. :-) Yes, a basic principle that people who work should be able to get by is pretty basic - I hope we can enshrine it as a standard for our world. | 2013-02-15T05:07:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17244 |
| There is little doubt that the Democrats have all the momentum right now - it's a matter of making something of it. Obama is much more in line with my thinking lately than he has been and I like this. I still want a New Deal, but other than that I think we're on the right path. The House leadership seems to understand at least some of this, too, IMHO. | 2013-02-14T22:26:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17241 |
| Excellent point on environmental protection, yes. That is where the Democratic coalition has fallen down in the past, and I hope we can keep it together. I think this is just the Democrats time. We're the ones who have the right solutions when there is a Depression. :-) |
2013-02-14T01:21:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17231 |
| I think Obama follows my lead, yes. :-) No, seriously - centrist Democrats do have a consistent philosophy and it's not hard to predict what they'll come up with. We, that is. Obama needs to be more inspiring, I agree. I don't know why he doesn't go out and sell his stuff more often. Democrats really need to be in the loop on this stuff, if for no other reason that it'll build the organization they'll need in the 2014 elections. |
2013-02-14T00:49:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17228 |
| He was ambitious, but I see this as building on the foundations laid in the last few years. I do think it's about time, and we have a strong path to deal with the debt we've accumulated - spending cuts, tax increases AND growth. Yes! | 2013-02-13T04:48:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17219 |
| It was a Democrat speech, yes. You wonder how we'll pay for it, too, eh? :-) | 2013-02-13T04:06:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17216 |
| Thanks. The money is an issue, but a lot of this stuff wasn't expensive. | 2013-02-13T04:06:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17215 |
| Thanks! | 2013-02-13T02:41:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/11/whats-in-a-name-2/#comment-17212 |
| Thanks! | 2013-02-11T21:23:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/11/whats-in-a-name-2/#comment-17207 |
| I guess that's where I'm at now. Plus, it's Bryan. | 2013-02-11T19:13:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/11/whats-in-a-name-2/#comment-17205 |
| Thanks, I will do more! I need to mix it up some. | 2013-02-11T02:38:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/08/another-pledge-drive/#comment-17201 |
| Thanks! I can't do what I did for Minnesota because it's very hard to compare countries. But I might try and see what I can come up with. | 2013-02-08T21:37:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/08/another-pledge-drive/#comment-17192 |
| It's been two years! I thought I should try it again. MPR does pledge drives every few months. (no, it doesn't seem to work on a blog ...) |
2013-02-08T21:36:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/08/another-pledge-drive/#comment-17191 |
| That is very beautiful, thank you! It says St Paul in a way that words can't, especially in the grey of Winter. Thanks again! | 2013-02-07T16:24:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17167 |
| People are people, but cultures are cultures. I think this one has its tendencies for a good reason - every year we're humbled a bit and stuck being very anonymous. It's a theory. But of course, not everyone is like that. This has been a tough year for me, too, and not just because I had the flu for about 3 weeks! Maybe it's that we're spoiled, but a week hovering around 0F is pretty tough to take. |
2013-02-07T06:37:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17162 |
| It's my job, after all! :-) | 2013-02-06T03:43:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17153 |
| Anonymous - that is another feature of this culture, yes. It's much easier to be apart. It's funny. Another way to put this, of course, is "Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes" but I didn't want to get all Parrot Head on ya. :-) |
2013-02-06T03:43:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17152 |
| Thanks! | 2013-02-06T03:39:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17151 |
| Four more years, I say. On the Depression part - four months on this Winter thang. :-) | 2013-02-04T20:34:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/04/gets-warmer-from-here/#comment-17140 |
| The general beef is that it overestimates, yes. There are several issues going on, but you hit the most important - they DO correlate pretty closely after a few months of revisions. The total number of jobs in the US is pretty close between the two of them, meaning it all does work out eventually. The other thing is that the ADP report is only private sector! There have been a lot of government jobs lost at all levels in the last 5 years (when we should have been adding them!) so the official report looks worse for that reason alone sometimes. The GDP figure is looking like a one-off event, but I don't think it's a total fluke. I know of some businesses that saw a drop off for Hurricane Sandy and, strangely, at the end of December. It may be very real but not continuing. We''ll see. Glad to know you can report solid growth - keeps you employed? :-) |
2013-02-04T18:06:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/04/gets-warmer-from-here/#comment-17136 |
| It took 5 years, but perhaps that's what's going on. I would have preferred a New Deal as well, but at least we aren't mired in austerity - and won't be unless the budget hawks get their way. | 2013-02-04T18:02:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/04/gets-warmer-from-here/#comment-17135 |
| Thanks. The GDP downturn was pretty bad - I hope it was just a fluke, but I can't help but think that there's a message in here somewhere. | 2013-02-04T05:07:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/04/gets-warmer-from-here/#comment-17120 |
| Thanks! I think this is a good framework for both personal and public policy, and I'll say more about that later. The goal is to get everyone thinking this way - those without enough as well as those with an awful lot of it. | 2013-02-01T22:30:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/01/money-is-a-tool/#comment-17108 |
| Thank you! I may use this as a jumping off point, yes. It summarizes a lot of things I have been talking about lately and does set up a new line. | 2013-02-01T04:12:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/01/money-is-a-tool/#comment-17084 |
| I have read other works by Ferguson, but I have yet to get to that one. Thank you! I will put it on my list. | 2013-02-01T03:42:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/01/money-is-a-tool/#comment-17081 |
| It caught me by surprise, and I don't like surprises like that. Hurricane Sandy was a huge deal, bigger than most people think, but that's not enough to explain it. There was a downturn at the end of December, something I know from small biz work I do, which may have something to do with the fiscal cliff. But these seem like lame excuses. Can't wait for the January job numbers - that will tell us if 4Q12 was a blip or something real. |
2013-01-31T19:30:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/30/it-works-out-because-of-the-bad-stuff/#comment-17067 |
| That is pretty much where I am at right now. | 2013-01-30T17:11:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/30/it-works-out-because-of-the-bad-stuff/#comment-17050 |
| Maybe. I do wonder about "fiat currencies" and what might possibly come to replace what we know now. Global hyperinflation would be an amazing phenom, and the way things are tied together it's hard to see how that would be avoided if, say, the US started that way. So as long as everything moves together - how can it really get moving? I do see a more gradual erosion until actual growth sets in. And, of course, if the velocity of money comes back we will have more inflation. |
2013-01-30T06:17:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/30/it-works-out-because-of-the-bad-stuff/#comment-17041 |
| Yes, not with a bang but a whimper. I do believe that collateral damage if major investment banks fail would be minimal, as they are not tied to the underlying economy. It seems more likely that inflation will continue to eat away at their share until they clearly don't matter anymore. | 2013-01-30T05:07:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/30/it-works-out-because-of-the-bad-stuff/#comment-17039 |
| Thanks! The reporting is probably skewed a bit, but it was clearly less academic than usual. I used to use it as a jumping off point, but this year seemed very different. | 2013-01-29T03:31:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17018 |
| What I need from you is the reality check here. I found that what was coming out of the Davos conference, at least as far as the BBC / Der Spiegel / Bloomberg folks that were reporting on it were concerned, was pretty much in line with what I've been saying for 4-5 years. And I'd like to know if my being in sync with that international school of economic thought is a reasonable thing or a really bad thing. You're my reality check on this stuff. Tell me, what do ya think? I'd really like to know. Oh, and if you knock Soros it won't bother me at all, but I've always liked Stiglitz. :-) Seriously - I could use some guidance here. I was originally going to riff off an article on inadequate measures of economic progress by the American Enterprise Institute but it fell flat after reading about Davos in so many places. |
2013-01-29T01:11:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17016 |
| Hey! It's my job to be pithy and a bit subtle! :-) | 2013-01-29T01:05:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17015 |
| I have zero idea what they say in private. Imagine the receptions and so on, too! I would love to be there, and not for the skiing! My hunch is that they have been saying things like this in private all along, but we'll never know. |
2013-01-28T19:27:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17012 |
| Well, yes, as a matter of fact, I think you are right in a certain way. It took this long for the wealthy to feel the pinch and/or get sick of a lack of low-risk investment opportunities. | 2013-01-28T19:26:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17011 |
| Very good questions, as always! :-) 1) In the past, it's been pretty academic from what I have seen. For example, the big show last year was a debate on whether capitalism is serving the 21st century economy http://www.weforum.org/videos/time-davos-debate-capitalism-annual-meeting-2012 Interesting as far as it went, but ... lacking in immediate relevance. 2) Solutions were hard to come by, yes. Stiglitz, for example, said that the US has to work much harder to make education opportunities available for everyone, but that seems very weak and old hat. All in all, I felt that this discussion would have been much stronger 4-5 years ago. It seems that Barataria has been ahead of them, which I would think they should be embarrassed about more than I should be proud. |
2013-01-28T15:53:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17001 |
| Ha! Well, it won't stay bad forever, but there are tough challenges right now. I was really happy to see that Barataria has covered everything that was a topic at Davos already, so we're doing a good job here if I dare say so myself. But I don't want to look backwards too hard, and I am very glad that the leaders of the world are very realistic. | 2013-01-28T04:57:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-16989 |
| You have a point, but we have to see how this develops. I can't believe Japan is going to be particularly aggressive no matter what. | 2013-01-26T16:59:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16938 |
| But Asia is a big place, so that's only reasonable. Plus, it has a lot of people and has gone through a lot of change in the last 100 years. If anything, it's been far more peaceful through the transition than Europe was. | 2013-01-26T01:40:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16931 |
| Ha! :-) I really am happy that Japan is doing something. I'm just a bit skeptical (though not as much as Anna). |
2013-01-25T22:42:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16928 |
| For the record, I was the one who surmised that they figure the worst case scenario isn't that bad - we don't know that they are that flippant about it. I think this comes down to a calculation that the world leadership is so weak that Japan can sneak through a devaluation and get back to exporting without anyone challenging them. While that is certainly true in the West, I think China has different ideas. The relationship with South Korea is stranger, given that Korea was Japan's odd-job shop for so long, doing the work that was designed and financed by Japanese - that may well completely turn around (at least if Samsung keeps this up!). It seems at least a little crazy, but it beats the path they are on now - slouching towards oblivion. 2012 was a pivotal year for them as it became obvious they are in a lot of trouble and the voters clearly demand action. |
2013-01-25T16:40:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16923 |
| Thank you very much! | 2013-01-25T05:12:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16912 |
| My understanding is that most of the nuclear power plants are back on, but the earthquake has permanently damaged northern Japan. The problem with your reasoning is that this is exactly how fascists gain power - and in a depression they have very ripe conditions. I agree it's understandable and I wish Abe and Japan the very best, but I hope this does not get crazy on them. |
2013-01-25T03:42:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16910 |
| Agreed. Of course, it's often a matter of what you're buying with the stimulus. The infrastructure deficit is an obvious place to start putting people to work. I often think about more modern budgeting where capital and expenses are separated. Would love to know what you think. I could see a requirement that the expense side is balanced, which is what Minnesota and (I think) most if not all states have. |
2013-01-25T00:05:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16908 |
| Thanks. The Economist poll of forecasts isn't a ton different in their outlook - which is not good. | 2013-01-25T00:03:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16906 |
| I've seen this. I believe that we will grow faster than projected, largely because I believe that Europe will have less influence on our economy than most fear. Exports to Europe will drop somewhat, but the "periphery" is far less tied to us than the much stronger UK/Germany/France - which will not fare quite as badly. I also think that our trade with Latin America will more than make up whatever we lose, and that our oil imports will continue to decline. I agree that Europe is a very sad story, and I do wish them all the success possible. But I can't see them getting out of this through austerity - we certainly didn't. They have to find a way to encourage growth in whatever system they develop. The big issue world-wide remains debt. I could see one or more major global investment banks failing in the next two years, but I'm pretty sure it won't mean a damned thing or have anywhere near the ripple effect anyone expects. I would still love to see a "Jubilee". |
2013-01-24T03:39:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16880 |
| Yes, we don't have that kind of work going on now. The deficit in re-investment is very chilling, IMHO, and it's more than just public infrastructure. (I also have a first addition of Carothers' collected papers, BTW. Great chemist, sadly unstable.) |
2013-01-23T22:15:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16878 |
| This time around, we are leading with smaller firms. I am looking to the time when bigger firms, buoyed by profits, start their share of the hiring. And I do think a lot of bigger companies are modernizing - and the small companies are startups that are new from scratch! One of the weird things about employment growth has been how steady the ADP numbers are, IMHO. About 140k per month, give or take just a little. That really should accelerate at some point - but it hasn't yet. Interesting overall, thank you. |
2013-01-23T22:14:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16877 |
| That would be the most likely place at this point, yes. Japan is a mess but no one seems to care. China could enter a real recession, but I have no idea what that would mean. And, of course, the momentum in Washington may stall. There are a lot of potential "bumps". | 2013-01-23T22:11:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16875 |
| I will look for better graphical data - it's been hard to find a good way to represent the (slow) progress. Corporate profits are essential, and yes, it will boost just about everything. Keep in mind that in a traditional recovery we see that rise first - not last, as we are now. But seeing profits return could show that we are entering a real "recovery", and I hope that accelerates job growth. Real estate boggles me completely. :-) I'll leave that up to the experts, but try to filter the enthusiasm as I can. It is improving, and in 2012 we definitely saw a rise off the bottom. |
2013-01-23T17:55:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16870 |
| Thanks. Yes, I will be watching that, but only report if I see a change. It's a pretty obscure stat that isn't reported widely. | 2013-01-23T17:52:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16869 |
| I'll just believe you 'cuz it sounds fun. :-) | 2013-01-21T22:08:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/21/after-the-party/#comment-16852 |
| I also wanted to hear what he had to say. Support for gay rights has never been in an inaugural speech before so that was something interesting. As I said far too often in this post, we'll see. :-) | 2013-01-21T20:49:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/21/after-the-party/#comment-16849 |
| Commentators used that word a lot, but I agree that his speech was less "combative" than "firm" or "resolute". But we had a pre-written narrative and that's how it went. We'll see. | 2013-01-21T20:48:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/21/after-the-party/#comment-16848 |
| Hey, Matt! This was in 1986 when I was interning with FP&L downtown during the summer away from Carnegie. Getting an engineering degree makes you eligible for interesting gigs sometimes - in this case, I got to understand power distribution. Was fun. A lot of great stories from that bizarre town. :-) | 2013-01-18T03:06:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/18/shadows-of-the-past/#comment-16817 |
| Thank you. Yes, we see far too much racism these days, although people don't show it as openly as they used to. Instead there's this careful dance around the topic that has to be done. Hard to say if the bad old days weren't better in some ways - at least no one could deny what the problem was. | 2013-01-18T03:04:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/18/shadows-of-the-past/#comment-16816 |
| Thank you, Alan. We've come to far to not keep the momentum. There's always more to do, but progress has been made. More to the point, we have proof that progress is always possible. | 2013-01-18T01:24:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/18/shadows-of-the-past/#comment-16813 |
| Yes, this is a hot topic today for many reasons. This post was just my few cents worth for a number of reasons. It also ties together a few things about the future. | 2013-01-17T22:58:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/16/managing-innovation/#comment-16811 |
| Banking should be boring. I think you win. :-) |
2013-01-17T03:33:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/16/managing-innovation/#comment-16801 |
| ENTP for me. I also think this is critical, especially on teams. If nothing else, people need to be aware of how to interact with each other. It's also critical to know how you and your teammates learn - the Howard Gardner Multiple Intelligences theory. That seems grossly under-appreciated to me. | 2013-01-16T05:11:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/16/managing-innovation/#comment-16796 |
| Yes! This is an area where the Free Market works - at least mostly. You try to run a company with a "Quiet Life" and get publicly traded - it can't happen these days. If you try to build up a pile of cash to get you through from one invention to the next you're a takeover target. Without that cash, investors will trash you. (unless you are in information/internet tech and become kewl, that is) We're doing well, but I do think we should do what we can to make for more quiet corporations that can look to the long term. Which is, not so incidentally, something I wrote about earlier this week. :-) So it is a social thang after all, at least if we want the Free Market to do an even better job than it is now. |
2013-01-16T04:03:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/16/managing-innovation/#comment-16794 |
| A lot of those US filings are by foreigners (I've helped a few! :-) ) So it's hard to say. Yes, real innovation is a matter of dedicated industrial research most of the time. It involves crews of people working together, usually very close to sales staff (who identify needs) and/or production (where the stuff has to be made). Losing production facilities overseas really impedes a lot of industrial research in the US. The other thing that is very important is that a company has to be set up for a "quiet life". It can't live quarter to quarter and expect real innovation to define it. Our current values in the market simply do not generate the kind of patient capital on a large scale that is necessary for big, new things - but we do innovate small things that require little capital well. What makes researchers happy? They are rarely motivated by money. Most like a spirit of competition and "playtime", and need a very skilled management team to stay focused. But they typically like a very quiet life, too, where they get to do what they are best at. It's a tricky thing, something I've thought about writing about more. Now that we've determined this is the main engine of growth a decade from now perhaps it's probably worth some more thought and organization. |
2013-01-15T03:27:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16779 |
| I am working on it. I was drawing a real wall at 2017, when the "Spring" arrives, but I think I can envision it now. The most important things to me are not the individual technologies, which I would never want to predict, but how technology will be the only real engine of growth - and what that means. | 2013-01-14T22:27:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16777 |
| I think the "Dime Store New Deal" was a healthy exercise. Even when one party is clearly right on the direction, the other party can be very useful by saying, "Yes, but ..." and proposing a more moderate version or getting the voice of their own affected constituency into the debate. I miss those Republicans and wish they were around to make better decisions. Then again, I wish the Democrats were bold enough to need moderation. The desire to avoid another WWI was genuine and good, but the practice was horrible. There is a lesson there for people like me. The world is not "perfectible", but things can always be better. There's a yin and a yang to it. Those lessons are worth remembering through today's turmoil. |
2013-01-14T22:25:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16776 |
| Funny, my daughter gets all wistful about the War years and how everyone was working together. I told her to be careful what she wishes for. Also, her grandparents got her on track as to how awful everything was with the anxiety. As for Big Bands, don't get me started - another one of those strange things I'm into that I never, ever talk with a date about. :-) Seriously, I don't know anyone who doesn't think this is a kind of Depression, at least. But we're sure not acting like it nor working together. It does seem strange. |
2013-01-14T19:19:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16772 |
| I didn't mean to say it was a big change, per se, but I can see things going that direction. Thanks for the support on Credit Unions - that wasn't exactly what I meant, but I can see that it is more or less what it happening. And yes, the less said about investment banks the better, IMHO. | 2013-01-14T19:16:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16771 |
| That reminds me - I have to buy a lottery ticket. Well, maybe not "have to". :-) | 2013-01-14T19:15:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16770 |
| I wanted to dig up info on Credit Unions but I have had trouble finding reliable info. I do suppose they are growing largely because everyone I know banks with one now (and I do mean everyone!). You too? The idea of a bank as a partner is standard small-town procedure so this isn't really a foreign idea (perhaps I was being provocative!) but I can see it changing. The increase in profits that we see is consistent with things happening at a small scale generally in the economy. The way I see this is that 2012 was the year we built the base, 2013 is the year that it should take off. I also see this Depression era as the time when the world evened out, and after 2017 is the time when the new economy is defined. It all comes in stages. But small banks are definitely the ones profiting now and they will definitely be the ones that drive whatever happens. JP Morgan? Seriously, I can't help but think that the sooner they fail, the better. Too big? Naw. Eff 'em. |
2013-01-14T17:23:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16766 |
| Ha! If only it was a mutual relationship. :-) | 2013-01-14T17:19:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16765 |
| Polonius had a lot to say. :-) | 2013-01-14T15:32:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16760 |
| Yes, that is the problem. I am looking into Islamic Banking as an answer. :-) I may write about this on Monday, not sure yet. But yes, it means that we have to re-think everything we do now. I included a link to this above, but I'm starting to think it's even more important - it's what I call The Beatles Effect, where an old idea from one nation goes dormant and then comes back to it from another place, changed slightly. I think that the developing world is going to have a lot to teach us about how to run a "sustained" economy. I also may have to bring the concept of Resiliency back into the discussion. I need help putting this all together in an eBook! :-) | 2013-01-12T01:30:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16735 |
| It may work out. When I wrote this I was not optimistic at all, given what this means to our entire financial and corporate structure as we know it. No growth very much upends nearly everything. However, on a personal level, people may adjust very well and, as Anna pointed out, actually be scarce. It might be very good. I am about ready to suggest ways we can make a Golden Era of a kind - not just end this Depression. How's that? |
2013-01-11T20:33:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16731 |
| An excellent point! There is a big upside to this. This could be the antidote to the book The Coming Jobs War which I wrote about before. A shortage of labor is a good thing all around in some ways. Let me throw something else out there, too, given that gasoline is now under $3 a gallon here. With the US looking to lead the world in oil production we will be in a very unique position to take advantage of the new stability if we put our minds to it. If only the US Dollar would drop to make our manufacturing look cheaper - no, wait, Congress is already screwing with that. :-) Seriously, there may be a bunch of things that fall into place in the 2020s that make for a real boom, I agree! But it won't be like past booms in many ways, and it will be more about sustainability. Good comments all around here, thank you! | 2013-01-11T16:18:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16726 |
| Dan, you are right - the first thing to think about is what do we really need that is labor intensive and work out from there. Updating infrastructure is a big need all around the world and that will take labor. But I can see that a lot of what will drive the economy will be more capital intensive in the future, and how we handle that is a big issue, IMHO. It's all starting to remind me of Kurt Vonnegut's first novel, "Player Piano", in which everyone who does not get an engineering degree has 2 choices - the Army or the "Reconstruction and Reclamation Corps". You're on the right track, no doubt. What will need people in the future? | 2013-01-11T16:14:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16725 |
| Thanks (and you can swear in the comments, I don't mind :-) ) Yes, it proves that our politics is (cow puckey). :-) |
2013-01-11T04:58:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16714 |
| Exactly. I tried to envision it, but that seemed way beyond a reasonable article on the scope of the problem (not to mention my own imagination). My kids will have to deal with it, though. I'll say it here - Marx had a bit more to say about this than most people. His stuff is 150 years old or more, but it's worth re-reading. No, I don't expect that will sit well with a lot of people - especially given the nonsense that has built up around his teachings (on both sides of the politics). |
2013-01-11T03:54:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16712 |
| Thanks! I am working on something like a series on this. | 2013-01-09T22:22:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/09/a-new-generations-prospects/#comment-16702 |
| Not blaming anyone! But keep in mind my generation had a hard time early on (1980s recessions) and we had to figure out what to do with ourselves. It was tough, but we made it. As for the EIC being evil, well, I think "indifferent" is probably more accurate. Granted, that's also pretty lousy, but I don't think anyone is out to deliberately defraud college kids. |
2013-01-09T20:47:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/09/a-new-generations-prospects/#comment-16700 |
| That would be very cool, yes. Continuing ed is something I didn't write about, but it does factor into this. | 2013-01-09T16:41:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/09/a-new-generations-prospects/#comment-16694 |
| I don't know how much is on the kids themselves in this problem. If highly relevant programs aren't available then more school may not make sense. I largely agree on tech schools, however. Most of those lead directly to work. |
2013-01-09T16:40:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/09/a-new-generations-prospects/#comment-16693 |
| That's one of the areas Garry Wills didn't cover in "Certain Trumpets", but you are very right. W Edwards Demming is who comes to mind as the most recent leader worthy of note - got Japan together after WWII and preached Just In Time to the US. This October, incidentally, is the 100th anniversary of Ford turning on his assembly line for the first time. We could use another Henry Ford. |
2013-01-08T18:02:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16683 |
| I volunteer! :-) Seriously, you are right on. And every Senator should find a "buddy" from the other party to just have a few beverages of their choice with at least once a week. |
2013-01-08T06:23:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16676 |
| We haven't had a leader with both charisma and substance in a long time. All the men you named did. They exist in other nations - particularly developing nations - but not here. Obama might yet be a candidate, but he isn't really pushing for anything big or showing a lot of leadership. It is probably time for one again. That's part of why I wrote this - I want to encourage us all to think about leadership and maybe something good will bubble up from places as yet unknown. (so I'm a hopeless Romantic, sue me!) |
2013-01-08T04:58:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16674 |
| Yes, it is all about networking - which is to say that class structures are hardening and genuine opportunities to rise are closing down rapidly. It's completely un-American by just about any measure and it makes me sick. But none of this is Obama's fault - nor really the Republicans, either. This is a business cycle. How we respond to this is up to us and there is a lot of blame to go around here. I find Obama more flexible and open, so I am on his side. But we don't have the Next New Deal that I really think should have been done. |
2013-01-08T04:55:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16673 |
| Applause! Thank you for that great comment. Yes, the greatest resource of this or any other nation is nothing more nor less than the hearts and arms and brains of its workers. That is especially true of the young - those with the strongest hearts, the most tireless arms, and the most inventive brains among us. I didn't phrase this in terms of hope - or the promise of hope. The young people I know are not all that resentful at this point, but they also do not seem to have a lot of hope. They seem very resigned and practical. That isn't very good, all in all. But they do believe in progress, and I think that many believe that they can create a better world. I think it is time to get my kids on here to speak for themselves and their (as yet un-named) generation. Before I do, I'll speak a little bit based on what I know of them (and anyone with a different view please correct me!). Your concluding paragraph is right on and I want to highlight it. There's a Republican tone to it, but I promise you that it would resonate well with the young Obama generation that I know as well. What they want is a restructuring towards a world that looks ahead and promotes genuine opportunity - not a handout. They don't want to default on the debt they are incurring, but they also do not understand why it is falling to them to fix it. Part of me can't wait to take over and run things. Let's get that happening, IMHO! |
2013-01-07T19:50:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16667 |
| Yes, this should be watched closely. I haven't been watching it lately and that was probably a mistake - but it appears I didn't miss much. I think this is what to watch and what to insist on when we talk about growth. | 2013-01-07T19:40:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16666 |
| Jim, I want to refer you back to my conversations with the kids now in High School that I wrote about here. It's been over a year since I wrote from their perspective, but little has changed. They understand this completely, and want advice about how to get a J-O-B and not even a "career". They are very realistic, I've found in my small sample. I'm going to follow this more closely for a while, but I thought today we should have an over-view. As Smithson has noted, I've been very happy over the last year that the economy is growing - but people are being left behind. It's a real problem. Yes, get these kids to Tech Schools! By all means. They will learn very valuable skills no matter what happens later in life. I am going to stay on this more closely now that I can see the problem. 15 months between posts on the topic is not good - especially now that we've established that the broader economy is making its own momentum. | 2013-01-07T17:20:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16661 |
| That is what I worry about the most, yes. But if things do change completely, perhaps a lack of experience will be OK. Something tells me that a whole generation not schooled in the old ways means massive change is indeed ahead - once they get things going. But first they need to have an opportunity of some kind. It will probably have to be created from scratch, so it's only reasonable that it takes time. This is a good time to say that money is not limiting opportunity right now - interest rates are very low and $2T or so is on deposit at the Fed. But these kids who are unemployed are a lot of energy being wasted and that is not good. |
2013-01-07T17:14:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16660 |
| I never know what to think about Unca Joe. I am glad he's there, though - he seems to keep it all real in an otherwise rather intellectual administration. :-) | 2013-01-07T17:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16659 |
| It would be great to run a machine! Nice work if you can get it. But, alas, I think those daze are over. :-) No, seriously, it's just as well that this stuff is gone. The downside of corruption (as you pointed out with RFK/Daley) is obvious, but on the upside the bosses were able to tell people when their career was over because they screwed up too many times. Wouldn't it be great if someone told Michele Bachmann that it was time to go? There are a lot of good conservatives in that district who would be able to represent it well, do actual constituent service (Oh my!) and generally be much more effective as part of a team. A "boss" could do MN6 some good. Something to think about, eh? |
2013-01-06T18:29:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16650 |
| Thank you, I am thinking about this a bit. I don't think we can continue as we are now for very long, however, and part of why I wrote this is that I anticipate new leadership rising, perhaps "Mr Smith Goes to Washington" style. | 2013-01-05T20:47:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16643 |
| Funny you should mention this - I am distantly related to Truman and my neighbor not so distantly to Pendergast. :-) That aside, I did leave out ethics and that is a glaring omission. At there very least there has to be a moral completeness - cult leadership isn't ethical but it has its own code. How about this - we're developing a list of important qualities of leadership, and a leader has to have at least some of these elements present: Strategic Thinking Charisma Morality Conviction I am now going to go back to read my favorite book on this subject, "Certain Trumpets" by Garry Wills. He breaks down different kinds of leader and presents an archetype and an antitype - for example, under "Military Leader" he has Napoleon and George McClellan, and under "Electoral Leader" has has FDR and Adlai Stevenson. |
2013-01-05T18:08:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16639 |
| I really do hope it works for him. He seems like an OK guy, even though I disagree with him. But House Repubs have often been a strangely unruly lot, going back to Bob Michel & Newt Gingrich at least. | 2013-01-05T18:02:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16637 |
| That is definitely true of the "Charisma" definition of leadership - I don't think anyone can really be taught that (but it can be refined and improved to the next level). I realize what I'm advocating here is unusual at best, but a world well versed in the methods of leadership is one I would like to see, at least. |
2013-01-05T18:01:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16636 |
| OK, fine. Let's teach strategy to everyone, especially our kids (and I do my best to teach this to my kids!). Where people don't "get it" they should at least be able to recognize when others do, and can show the way. That gets around a lot of BS at least. Is that a fair compromise? |
2013-01-04T04:47:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16625 |
| Yes, the whole developed world. It's a huge problem. Angela Merkel, for example, is a very skilled politician who is only looking out for herself, IMHO. It's a serious problem everywhere - but we all rode the same waves and we all got fat and happy together. Yes, I mean that leadership has to rise from the bottom. Why not? I think that's how it naturally does. :-) |
2013-01-04T03:40:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16623 |
| Yes, I want to move away from the idea that leadership is charismatic and into a more democratic (small "d") view of it. We all can provide leadership in our own ways. I am hard on Occupy because I think it has to be much more than "raising awareness". We need very real change - and the landscape ahead of us is changing very rapidly. That makes people scared and breaks a lot of easy ways out. So what do we do? Crawl back inside of pleasant sounding aphorisms like the Tea Party wants? Their anxiety is real and shared by many, but they don't offer a solution, either. Should Obama be more? Maybe. I think we should, first. Then I'll rag on Obama. :-) |
2013-01-04T03:38:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16622 |
| Yeah, Ryan is OK and I don't care what anyone says. I may not like his Medicare reform plan but it's the only one out there that addresses the problem - and it's really not that bad, considering. Leadership is what counts. I'm thinking about what to say on that right now. :-) |
2013-01-04T00:28:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16617 |
| They have two months to redeem themselves, IMHO. Honestly, the more I look at this the more I don't blame the Republicans for being pissy about it - the cuts were all delayed. But ... that's the way this went down. It's been just plain strange and a "grand deal" really is the only thing that will make sense in the end. Two months? Good luck. |
2013-01-03T22:38:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16615 |
| Ha! :-) I'm glad nothing happened to him. Chaos doesn't suit anyone at this time, IMHO. | 2013-01-03T22:36:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16614 |
| Well, as a Toaist I'm never one for "good" or "evil" so I would have to agree with you (I think). :-) The three-way negotiations would be good, but I think Boehner would feel out-numbered. I have no idea how they will do it. The recent poll that showed 53% of all Americans find the Republican Party "too extreme" also found 51% that favor divided government. So not only is this done on purpose, it shows that people don't exactly like the Democrats (which 37% of all Americans found "too extreme) in charge of everything. So that appears to be the real issue, indeed. |
2013-01-03T22:35:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16613 |
| Yup. | 2013-01-03T22:32:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16612 |
| It's not all Republicans, just the House. I should probably add that I have to take back all the bad stuff I've said about Mitch McConnell (and there was a lot of it!) :-) | 2013-01-02T18:48:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16599 |
| The vote is in - despite the Senate, where Republicans voted for the bill, it was up to House Democrats to pass this thing. Repubs were against it, 147-80, which makes me wonder what Boehner's future is now. | 2013-01-02T03:59:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16585 |
| Poxes all around! :-) | 2013-01-01T01:14:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16576 |
| Ha! You can have 'em both. Also Reid and McConnell. Poxes all around! :-) | 2012-12-31T17:03:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16574 |
| This you will have to explain to me. :-) | 2012-12-31T15:27:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16572 |
| Everything is not getting done, I think. Sigh. | 2012-12-31T04:31:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16568 |
| Excellent, if incredibly cynical, observation. I discovered this story while digging around to find out what else expired on 31 December, knowing there had to be more. Sigh. | 2012-12-31T04:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16567 |
| Let me take that as more of a challenge. What fascinates me about this story is that it has gone unreported elsewhere. Plus, the nature of the jobs gain, especially leading economic growth, underlines that this is an event better called "Depression". OK, let's have a resolution for 2013, then. What can be done for those who are being left behind - because as well (or marginally) as things are going the hard part is going to be coming up later. Who is left behind? What will it take to get them into this economy? I can think of two groups right away that are worth focusing on. The first are the young, which I have commented on before. The other group are those over about 50 who find themselves out of work. Here is the deal - finding good, useful information on these two groups will be hard. But I will try to do it. So I agree that we've beaten the "slow, steady growth" to death at this point. I think we have identified the source of this growth and know what to look for if it is to continue. How could this growth expand to be more inclusive? A better story. |
2012-12-29T19:19:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16555 |
| I agree that this is no surprise, but what I think is important is that it is the base on which we will continue to grow into 2013, yes. I predict more solid economic growth - ASSUMING the feds don't mess things up. That's the one big variable here and the real reason I can't make a solid prediction yet. Thanks for your comments on employers. It would be good to look into, I think. There were some very interesting things on hiring/retaining talent on the ADP site that I was thinking about sharing, too. |
2012-12-28T18:10:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16546 |
| Well, I don't want to ban football, but it's clear that our awareness of the problem has increased dramatically and we now know just how bad it is. They're working on it, and I hope good solutions can be found. In the meantime, yes, antique music goes well with beer, too. :-) | 2012-12-28T16:01:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16542 |
| Good point. I keep meaning to do some more research on overhead per employee, for example. I've been talking to employers about what they have to go through and it does seem that it might be streamlined a bit. | 2012-12-28T03:39:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16529 |
| Yes, I don't think this is way out of the expected but it is important. Thanks! | 2012-12-28T03:37:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16528 |
| Thank you. It's good to know that this isn't such a radical idea anymore. I think we should speak in clear, calm voices about the need to simply get a handle on what we are doing and start turning the volume down a bit. Here is the 2nd Amendment in its entirety: "A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." Note that this is not an unqualified right, like freedom of press or speech. The need for order (regulation) is spelled out clearly. IMHO that's what we need to push for - more order. I can't see that this would be unconstitutional. |
2012-12-26T17:09:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16503 |
| Interesting take, but a game of cat and mouse with manufacturers of guns seems like a lot of effort. More than anything, I want to encourage responsible gun owners to back away from the NRA and work with each other. Laws can only go so far - although an outright ban on all guns would be interesting. I can't see it working, however. Let's see where this goes. |
2012-12-26T16:59:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16502 |
| That's fair given that the proof is always in what we actually get done. I do think we have to push this because the politicians can't get it done on their own - they need pressure all around. But if you want to see what is proposed and what we need to get behind I can see that. Let's be ready for a fight in either case, OK? | 2012-12-26T16:57:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16501 |
| Thank you for that story. It makes me sick just to think about it, frankly. We have to overcome the NRA if this is really all they have to offer. So how do we change the culture? I don't know, honestly. Michael Moore has had a lot to offer on this and I respect his thoughts. But we have to keep it up. Something is wrong at the very core of who we are, IMHO. Thank you again, I really appreciate what you have to say here. |
2012-12-26T03:55:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16493 |
| Ammunition regulation is something I have trouble contemplating, because people could still go from store to store. I want any new laws to be ones that are hard to get around and are thus respected. That's hard to contemplate, frankly, but we can put our heads into it. I still want whatever happens to be more about changing the culture and not just laws. The NRA has shown that they are part of the problem - given that all they have to offer is more armament. |
2012-12-26T03:52:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16492 |
| Thank you, and Merry Christmas! | 2012-12-25T20:54:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/24/let-christmas-come/#comment-16487 |
| Thank you, Merry Christmas! | 2012-12-24T03:55:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/24/let-christmas-come/#comment-16470 |
| Merry Christmas, and bless you, too! Thank you. | 2012-12-24T02:22:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/24/let-christmas-come/#comment-16467 |
| Thank you, it was all that came to me today. | 2012-12-24T02:21:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/24/let-christmas-come/#comment-16466 |
| There is a lot more drama coming up in the next week. I wrote this post so that it will explain what happens in the end, not right now - and thus will stand up to time a bit better. It's part of my tagline - "I don't break news, I fix it". :-) | 2012-12-21T19:10:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16446 |
| Yes, and yes! I used to think a grand compromise was called for here, but the more I think about it taking care of some of the details and then committing to a bigger deal over the next few months is ideal. Or they could just punt completely - Wall Street may not like what you propose, but this calls for a lot more discussion than we've had. I feel like we only really got started in December - but it's been a fun ride since then. :-) |
2012-12-21T16:11:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16443 |
| Amen. It's a great standard to live up to. I do see a lot of openness so far in these negotiations, which may actually be hampering them (though I took it as a sign that this really was just the posturing phase and the work was done). But they are engaging people in the hard decisions that they are making. And that is very good, no doubt. We have to keep talking (see next response) and we have to have a clear, open understanding of our priorities as a nation if we're going to meet them adequately. So, yes, this is the messy part. I really think it's going to get messier yet. But it'll work out. :-) Thanks for that perspective, it's a good one! |
2012-12-21T16:09:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16442 |
| Their hand only gets weaker with time. Enough of them know it that, with Dem support, there will be a deal. But Boehner has now been locked out and is very weak. I didn't predict what happens after this because I really have no idea. Will Boehner get bounced? It's unlikely, but he is looking pretty bad about now. |
2012-12-21T03:30:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16428 |
| The final package will have to include Dems. And Boehner knows it now. This was a test vote and they couldn't even get it to happen. Think about all the Wall Street guys who gave many digits who are making phone calls late into tonight - they won't let this go. It's just getting interesting, is all. |
2012-12-21T03:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16426 |
| Our nation did change as immigrants came in, particularly Catholics. The history of Christmas seems very complex and worthy of a lot more research than I've put into it so far. Just here in America it's clearly changed a lot! And yes, the way we drink and why is interesting. My daughter is into "The Twilight Zone", and one of the most interesting features is that people often come into a bar that has no tap handles and about 5 kinds of whiskey to get a drink. It was a very different world. Today there are so many beers and yes, women drink beer and men drink wine. It's all OK. There are zillions of mixed drinks, too. Much more social. But it's also more of an event, not something you just do on the way home from work. Another topic worthy of a longer piece, eh? |
2012-12-20T16:02:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16417 |
| The greeting is now "Have a Happy Merry!" :-) Yes, let's light a bunch of candles and have a warm glow to sit in quietly while we have tea (or something stronger). It makes for a great holiday. |
2012-12-20T15:58:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16415 |
| That is just beautiful! For the record, your dad was about the coolest adult I knew as a kid, and he's the one that took us to see "Life of Brian" in the theater - back when that's where we saw movies (that's the way it was and we liked it). Thank you. I am sooo going to use that. :-) |
2012-12-20T15:57:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16414 |
| Yes, all of them! Why the Hell not? Thanks. :-) | 2012-12-19T04:48:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16389 |
| Thanks! I find it utterly bizarre and ahistoric. Protestants defending Christmas? What? | 2012-12-19T03:42:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16387 |
| Thanks, I agree. It's the best excuse for a party there is, and that's the real ancient tradition. Part of the reason that Puritans and other Protestants actually banned Christmas is that it was always a drinking holiday. Eh, screw them. :-) | 2012-12-19T02:03:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16385 |
| We can be thankful that political violence is pretty rare, yes. Many nations have gone through at least spasms of this - including western nations we think of as peaceful, like Ireland. But yes, I don't profess a lot of answers. I am offering a new perspective that focuses on the very foundations of our culture. Perhaps it's too much, perhaps it's not useful, perhaps it is simply not right. I offer what I can to get us to talk about this and form something more cohesive as a people, because we are a people. We are Americans, and that is a very noble calling of very high ideals when we live up to it. I want to see that again. I want my kids to live in that nation, not the one we have now. Continuous improvement has marked our history, and I hope we know what we have to do to make this better now. If not - can we at least talk? |
2012-12-19T01:32:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16383 |
| I have long thought that bolt action rifles might well be a good standard for hunting, yes. That's a very hard sell, but it does seem to favor better shots than the casual hunter that doesn't really know what they are doing. It may even cut down on hunting accidents, which are very common. But this is a big, long tangent. It'll take time to explore. |
2012-12-18T06:24:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16363 |
| You are right, we are not totally lost. It will take time to learn the lessons of this horrible event, so it's best to ignore the nooze cycle and wait until there is something beyond the senselessness. But I think we might very well learn something here, and perhaps do something. Yes, we're not totally lost. Sure, let's build on that. | 2012-12-18T06:22:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16362 |
| Thank you. I hope we can all talk about this a lot more. | 2012-12-17T19:11:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16353 |
| OK, I accept that. A well-written gun control law could save a number of lives, for sure. Making clips no bigger than 10 rounds seems to be an idea that is catching on rapidly, and there would have been fewer deaths. But yes, the mental health picture is very important - and as it stands now I can't even imagine how we could handle that effectively given a starting point of the hopeless ineffective "system" we have now. |
2012-12-17T18:50:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16351 |
| Good points. I have always thought that when we feel like government has to do something that the world is too bizzy or selfish to take care of on its own, there has been a failure. Sometimes we have to acknowledge our failures and get on with things, making sure the vulnerable are protected and our world is not unecessarily nasty. But it is still a failure. I am seeking a solution where we, as a people, are less angry and suspicious, more hopeful and compassionate. A "system" would be a terrible way to handle this problem, which I think is much more at the core of who we are as a people. Let's just be kind to each other and leave the government out as much as we can, please? |
2012-12-17T18:45:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16349 |
| My kids compared it to 9/11, too, though none of them are quite old enough to remember that. I do agree that the less we say about the killer the better. "Breakfast" is a difficult work - it's about perspective and standing a bit outside of yourself. It's much like my call for exstasism this year - being beyond self. It is a topic I have been writing on more and more, and I think I will continue to refer back to. | 2012-12-17T15:39:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16339 |
| A little more research has found that the Violence Policy Center, which was highly critical of the original "assault weapons" ban of 1994, has proposed legislation that does seem to address the kind of weapon used in Newtown: http://www.vpc.org/studies/USofAW.htm This will save lives, I am sure. However, I cannot see that it will eliminate violence as long as the sickness remains. Without making too fine of a point of it, shotguns are also very effective killing devices - they have simply not been favored by the mentally ill who want to go on a killing spree. There are other fundamental issues that I do believe must be addressed to end the killing. |
2012-12-17T05:15:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16322 |
| Dale, what is an "assault rifle"? The definition is a short barrel rifle that uses small caliber (.30 or less) that fires in multiple round bursts (and/or fully automatic). The rifle used here was not fully automatic, and does not meet that definition. Should we ban all small barrel rifles, then? A somewhat persistent nut could saw it down, but that might deter some. Small calibre ammo a problem? I'd hate to ban .22s or other varmint rifles. Writing effective legislation means a legal definition needs to be crafted - Sen. Feinstein has said she will do so, and I await her effort. Beyond that, we need a movement that supports any effort that can lobby effectively and make reasonable demands, too - and that takes being informed on the issue. I am afraid that any effective gun control legislation has always foundered on the simple fact that those who push it have been very sloppy and imprecise, not focusing on a specific, definable topic. I am in favor of licensing gun ownership much like a car, for example, and think that is only reasonable - but that probably would not have stopped this tragedy based on what I've heard so far. Short of getting rid of all guns, this will continue until we address the root of the problem - our lust for violence. We might be able to save some people with good legislation, but only if it is well written and enforceable. Universal mental health support would also save some lives, so we can work on that. But please, let's also do what we can about the fear, anger, selfishness, and disconnect at the source of all this. |
2012-12-17T04:36:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16321 |
| Yes, I agree. Understanding how and when intervention is necessary would be a great help. At the very least, mental health services should be much easier to obtain. We can only imagine how many would be saved by a small amount of compassion. | 2012-12-17T04:28:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16320 |
| Yes, that's all I'm saying. And I guess that a 2% across the board cut in real terms would also take care of the problem. What can be privatized? I don't see any big items that would make a big difference. County hospitals might be the easiest target, but I can't see how it would make a big difference to the budget in the end - we'd still pay for services given to those who can't pay. There isn't much for liquor stores or electric co-ops in Minnesota, for example. Pennsylvania could (and I would say should) get out of the liquor biz but we aren't in it. I'll think about privatizing and where it might actually save. My first thought is that no, it wouldn't change a thing. I'm glad you are focusing on the 17%, BTW, because it is the bottom line and it is a number that, as you said, is a bit high but not really high. It seems rather balanced to me, especially when you dig into it. I would hope you would find it high and my more liberal friends would say it's too low. :-) |
2012-12-16T18:30:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16315 |
| You're right - I have to identify whatever tax cuts or increased expenditures created the imbalance. I'll look for that and see what I can find I believe there were tax cuts during the Pawlenty / Republican Legislative era that account for it, given the regressivitiy of the tax incidence that was not there before, but I'll look. Fair enough. |
2012-12-16T18:25:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16314 |
| And I took the extra step of noting your disagreement in this post because I understand that this is not universally accepted. Also, I tried to make it clear that raising taxes on the top two deciles is what I expect to be proposed, but I'll say it here - that is not the only possible solution. It is always possible to cut even if you do believe me that it's a $1B structural problem. But - and I'm pretty sure this is a good prediction - the tax increase is very likely to be the way it will be plugged. If there is no structural deficit, I am against raising taxes UNLESS a very clear and pressing need is identified that we are not taking care of now. However, any kind of reform that might be proposed can and, IMHO, should work towards at least making the overall tax incidence flat - if not progressive. I am not calling for a tax increase simply to have a tax increase - that would be ridiculous. I expect a tax increase because I see a serious problem in the forecast that the DFL Legislature will have to fix. Your mileage, apparently, differs. | 2012-12-14T23:55:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16295 |
| I see the issue now. It's way simpler than you think. The forecast is required by law to take inflation into account for future revenues but NOT for future expenses. So everything is off by about 2% a year. That is the $1B gap. It's that the forecasts are simply wrong, and everyone knows it. They were forced to be that way. It's really that stupid. |
2012-12-14T21:28:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16290 |
| Me, too. It's really weird how close we are. That's why I thought I'd take up Dale's challenge of looking at a few other states - are they all the same? That would be stranger yet. | 2012-12-14T18:19:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16276 |
| First of all, I think we agree that going back to Carlson's 1998 budget is far enough for any reasonable comparison. That's the last year I have excellent data available for (I'm guessing the first year a lot of this stuff was put on the web!). The accounting shifts have been written about elsewhere and I haven't really said much about it. The idea that you would promise money next year as a way of balancing this year does seem very desperate - and more than a bit gutless. The use of budget reserves doesn't bother me so much because the "Rainy Day Fund" was always in place for an event like 2008-2010 - although now we should look at repaying it when we can. How should we handle inflation? First of all, I want no laws restricting how a budget forecast can be done - except maybe requiring them to list all their assumptions up front so we know what went into it (although you don't really have to legislate that, either). There was a proposal back under Perpich that every agency would be "sunsetted" every (I think) 4 years on a rolling calendar and put on a zero-base budget - start from scratch. The DFL hated this, but I think it was an excellent idea all around. I would support that as the way to be sure that we don't just keep growing mindlessly. It takes some work, but it seems reasonable. Mostly, at this point, I want to hear what Dayton wants for major reform - he's been talking about it for a long time but been short on details. I want to respond to his proposal because there is a lot that can be done - but with these posts I've come to understand the rough bounds. |
2012-12-14T17:26:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16271 |
| I hear ya on the stadium. Dayton held a meeting to discuss ways of getting the viddy gaming revenue up where they need it to be, about double what it's coming in at now. Great. Just wonderful. | 2012-12-14T04:47:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16247 |
| I'll look into Wisconsin when I get a chance. I'll bet it's really similar. :-) Thanks! | 2012-12-14T04:46:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16246 |
| Yes, you hit on my main point here - cutting "welfare" or "PCA" will not save us a damned thing in terms of the budget. You want big savings? Cut K-12 or nursing homes. Go ahead, do it. Dayton is signalling that he wants major reform - which will include cuts here and there, swaps, and probably still a rise in rates at the top end. I think it's largely justified and I am waiting for the details. I think it's good to hold him to his original promises and if he really can find some areas to cut then explain why they can be left behind. But as a baseline, there is nothing way out of whack in this budget. I am a bit surprised, to be honest. I thought that over the years it got way more effed up than it did in bulk. It's good to know this going into the session as the spin machines start up. You do realize I'm setting a baseline for a zillion future arguments that I can imagine coming, yes? :-) |
2012-12-14T04:05:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16243 |
| I'm not saying there isn't a difference - of course there is! But what's new is always more interesting to me, especially if it looks like a developing trend that will be around for a while. A pragmatic centrist alliance seems like a longshot at best, but I'll keep looking for it just in case. | 2012-12-13T23:16:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/12/its-all-good-except-the-bad-stuff/#comment-16241 |
| I think that pragmatists will win, too, but it's coming way closer to the wire than I'm comfortable with. Perhaps this experience will build some friendships and alliances that will be important later. | 2012-12-13T22:37:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/12/its-all-good-except-the-bad-stuff/#comment-16239 |
| Yes, that was my point. :-) 2013 is a very important year because that is when people should start believing in the positive momentum - and the fear/hope gauge should swing over to the bullish side. (crossies!) | 2012-12-13T22:36:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/12/its-all-good-except-the-bad-stuff/#comment-16238 |
| "Growing optimism" should make it clear that optimism is not already universal, yes. There is a lot of hurt out there. And, as I tried to make very clear, there are irresponsible people on both "sides" - and quite a few responsible people in both parties, too. The debate right now is far, far less along the supposed party lines - it's developing as pragmatists versus ideologues. And yes, there is a time to fight. A really good fight can be a wonderful thing, as I have said many times. A budget is a reflection of values, and without consensus on our values we will continue to not have a budget. That will take a pretty solid fight to get done. | 2012-12-13T22:34:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/12/its-all-good-except-the-bad-stuff/#comment-16237 |
| See comment on previous post. MMB was as explicit as they can be, under law, that they cannot do a proper forecast. It's sick but true. | 2012-12-10T22:02:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16167 |
| Nope, I won't yield on this one. The problem is that MMB is not allowed, by law, to do a proper forecast. They included in the footnotes what the adjustment would be with minimal reference, skirting the law the best they can. It's a shameful situation. | 2012-12-10T22:02:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16166 |
| See above. It's a consistent $1B per year when properly accounted for. | 2012-12-10T21:19:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16163 |
| It's not in balance because of the law that they have to include inflation for revenues, but not for expenses. I covered that last post. There is a structural imbalance of $1B per year once it is properly accounted for. So that's the real problem. |
2012-12-10T21:19:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16162 |
| There is some room to expand, but it is best to be careful. I agree with Jim that the Fed portion is not something we should count on too heavily, for example - and making that up quickly would be a big burden. | 2012-12-10T21:16:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16161 |
| Well, how big is too big? This figure includes a lot of things like tuition and bills paid at a county hospital - aren't fees to a government institution a reasonable thing to have? To me, knowing that taxes are only about 9% is still one Hell of a bargain. The Federal part, I agree, is difficult to count on in the future (and I think it is on the table, yes). But it's the 9% that I think we should focus on as the important number - and that seems very small to me. |
2012-12-10T19:38:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16154 |
| We were "spun". :-) See above for the explanation. We've always been around average - on the high side in 1998, on the low side now, but not very different. Yes, you are right about less Federal money coming in. And it is because we are relatively wealthy. Keep in mind that we pay more in per capita than average, so our return on the Federal dollar has always been one of the lowest in the nation - around 75 cents on every dollar. GSP excludes very little. It does not count government, excepting salaries which are about a third. That is about the only thing excluded and it is fairly uniform all around. Our GSP would be about 11% higher if all of government was included, and I can look at how much that varies from state to state. I doubt it's a lot, but seeing how some states have much higher state and local government per GSP it may be as high as 20% excluded in Alaska, for example. |
2012-12-10T16:46:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16148 |
| Big questions! The first answer is that you can figure this stuff in more narrow ways to get the answer you want. What was always said is that Minnesota has a high income tax per capita. They knew that people would remember "high tax", and they did. The truth is that we are a relatively wealthy state (high GSP/capita) and we rely on income tax more than property taxes when compared to other states. Ta-Da! As for the states with the largest state + local government, you are right that it is hilarious for the hypocrisy. Sarah Palin's Alaska gets the title "Land of the Midnight Socialism" for it's whopping 29.4% of the state dependent on government, but some other deep red states are very close behind: 1) Alaska (29.4%) 2) Mississippi (25.3%) 3) Vermont (24.3%) 4) West Virginia (23.6%) 5) New Mexico (23.0%) 6) Wyoming (22.6%) 7) Montana (22.1%) I'll make the whole sheet available once I format it a bit, but the links to the raw data are given above. It's hilarious (except when it's depressing). | 2012-12-10T04:44:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16135 |
| There is a section of the census bureau for detailed information on state and local budgets going back to 1992. The biggest question is pulling the data out of the database. They have details on every state including revenues (broad categories: Fed pass-through, taxes, fees etc) and expenditures - by state, local, and combined. Long ago I had a sheet to download their stuff and make a quick comparison between all states, it was fun. I'll get on that again tonight. Had to catch up on paying stuff first. :-) With the new Legislature it makes sense to know where we are both historically and compared to other states! |
2012-12-08T21:44:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16123 |
| I want to go back to the 1970s, largely because I have no idea what it will tell me. I also want to do it as a percent to GSP to normalize it. That may be nearly impossible, but I'll see what I can dig up. Also, there was a consistent reporting framework for all states at the Census Bureau that goes back to the 90s. I used to look at it every year - it was really intense data broken down by categories like K-12, roads, etc. Comparing each state is really interesting, especially by GSP. The range was really pretty small - always around 3.5% of GSP for local, 7% for state spending. Feds are, of course, about 20%, which is to say each level of government is about twice the previous ones combined. Really interesting. Almost made a Federalist out of me. :-) Anyway, that may not hold today. I want to dig that up. |
2012-12-08T04:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16109 |
| Yes, I agree on that. People would have freaked. | 2012-12-08T04:49:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16108 |
| Sorry, should have been more explicit. Table 33 on page 55 of the 2011 Tax Incidence Study shows that Decile 9 has a total income of $31B and Decile 10 has $82B. Multiply those by the net difference between their effective rate at current law and 12.3% (0.4% and 1.9%, respectively) and add them! :-) Thanks for the clarification on the definition of income - I think you are correct. Makes sense. Would love to see what happens to that bottom rate with a more comprehensive income definition. |
2012-12-07T23:00:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16101 |
| I will get together the spending / revenue vs GSP. That will take me some time and effort, but you are right that we should do it. Yes, K-12 and HHS drive the budget, and they deserve special attention. I'm not ready for that, and frankly I want to see what Dayton has to say before I get too excited one way or the other. This could go a lot of directions. I do know that Dayton is interested in being known as a fiscal moderate, not a liberal. |
2012-12-07T22:23:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16099 |
| Thank you! Long time no see! | 2012-12-07T02:07:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16069 |
| Thank you. There's a lot more to say, but this got long as it is. | 2012-12-07T02:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16068 |
| Footnote: The 2002 state law that prohibits the inclusion of inflation in the spending forecasts for Minnesota, but requires it in revenue forecasts, has an interesting history. Roger Moe and Tim Pawlenty were the Senate Majority and Minority leaders, respectively, and were about to run against each other for Governor. They rammed this law through in order to make the state budget look better, benefiting both of them. In short, Tim Pawlenty was screwing with the budget even before he became Governor. Oh, and in 2002 I voted Independence Party. |
2012-12-07T00:41:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16065 |
| Don't whine, check. :-) | 2012-12-05T16:59:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/05/about-me-the-post/#comment-16037 |
| Thanks! I am a bit blue lately. Maybe it's the weather, but somewhere around the election it just dawned on me how important self-promotion is to getting good gigs in the area of commentary and analysis. I never really understood how to do that. | 2012-12-05T16:58:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/05/about-me-the-post/#comment-16035 |
| It could be midlife crisis, that's pretty reasonable. But I have always been this way, at least to some extent. I think there are a lot of people like me - those who are more interested in being integrated with the world than conquering it. | 2012-12-05T15:20:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/05/about-me-the-post/#comment-16030 |
| Thank you. I guess this is how I express myself. | 2012-12-05T15:18:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/05/about-me-the-post/#comment-16029 |
| Yes. I think we do want to expand the benefits, but don't trust that the government is handling the money as well as possible. This is a generational change and we have to have a very broad agreement, like the one that created Social Security in the first place, to move ahead. There's a lot to think about here. Not much to say right now, you said it well. |
2012-12-04T16:56:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16013 |
| See above - I am very frustrated now and what I read in comments isn't helping. I think it's time to start over in so many ways it's hard to know how to begin. | 2012-12-03T21:22:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16007 |
| I've been thinking about this. You're right, most people don't care about macroeconomics - and I am tending toward the belief that there is only microeconomics at a grand level. Your comment is valid criticism. I am not too worried about the Fed - they are doing what needs to be done and I'm thankful for it. I am worried about our government's lack of interest in the same policy. We don't separate out capital from ordinary expenses as any business does or household should do. Real investment in our nation is mixed up in the jumble of daily getting by and doing what we have to. Infrastructure, among other things, is clearly an investment and has to be treated separately - but isn't. There is a bigger problem here in how the budget is done. I'm a "zero base" fan and supported Tom Tripplett (sp?) and his efforts under Perpich to periodically "sunset" every agency of the state government in a rolling multi-year framework. I support Simpson-Bowles for the same reason. But even zero-base does not get us to a strong appreciation for the difference between debt run up as an investment, which can be weighed against the asset it creates, and expenditure. Yet interjecting that at this stage seems utterly crazy. The more I think about it, the more frustrated I become. |
2012-12-03T21:21:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16006 |
| You guys are all one big downer, you know? :-) Seriously, this is about the dumbest damned thing I have ever seen out of Washingtoon. |
2012-12-03T17:07:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16003 |
| You're siding with Schiff and a fairly large number of bond traders in this position. It is an informed one, yes, but I still find it terribly irresponsible. I believe it is still possible and quite desirable to have a partial or minimal deal and then start a more lengthy process for real reform. You guys, all of you, are convincing me that the public is just not serious enough to back up the "leaders" who should be avoiding this. That saddens me to the core. |
2012-12-03T15:05:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16001 |
| Real pain for real people is simply not part of the equation for most of the people in politics today. We have to replace EVERYONE, and that simply must start with the pundit class. Dig this exchange, where Jim Cramer is the only sane one: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/grover-norquist-tea-party-2-is-going-to-dwarf-tea-party-1-if-obama-pushes-us-off-the-cliff/ Jim effin' CRAMER is the sane one. |
2012-12-03T03:44:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-15997 |
| Good point. We may be screwed, given that this is what passes for policy and positioning. I feel a rising sense of doom, yes. It seems very stupid, given how avoidable it is. |
2012-12-03T03:08:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-15995 |
| It is a bad situation, but making it this much worse is not going to get us anywhere. What's the best path for individuals? I'd say buy gold, although it's a bit late for that. The US Dollar may be in serious trouble if this goes down like I think. |
2012-12-03T03:07:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-15994 |
| Exactly, it's a very important investment and we are very much missing what government should be doing first! | 2012-11-29T22:11:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/#comment-15968 |
| Apparently you were right - I remember you saying this some time ago and it looks like it is a much bigger need and a good source of jobs. Yes, state and local units are much better positioned. Bond rates are low for them now, but they are also pretty tapped out. I would say that the Feds should consider some kind of infastructure program that pays out for nearly any project up to the state and local amount in matching grants. |
2012-11-29T22:09:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/#comment-15967 |
| Very good way to put it, thanks! | 2012-11-29T22:05:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/#comment-15966 |
| Thanks! | 2012-11-29T22:05:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/#comment-15965 |
| A tax on equity trades as a replacement for corporate taxes, then? Given that we have lost so many sources of revenue (tarrifs in particular) I think it is only reasonable to have another one. If we can't tax corporations directly this is a way to do it indirectly. | 2012-11-29T22:04:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/26/taxing-solutions/#comment-15964 |
| It is a stretch, but I think it is an excellent idea. There are other things that can and should be done to end the casino, but right now we are talking more about revenue. | 2012-11-29T22:03:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/26/taxing-solutions/#comment-15963 |
| Thanks! | 2012-11-29T22:01:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/26/taxing-solutions/#comment-15962 |
| More evidence all the time. Don't really want to beat the issue to death, but it hasn't totally sunk in with the general population. | 2012-11-29T22:01:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/28/its-clearly-different/#comment-15961 |
| I was going to comment on that - thanks for beating me! Yes, growth is with us - or at least some. It explains everything. Inventory of houses for sale is at a huge low, too. There is a definite "recovery" going on. |
2012-11-29T22:00:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/28/its-clearly-different/#comment-15960 |
| Filipinos certainly earned their independence - the only decent thing after that horrible war was to acknowledge it. As for the War ending the Depression, it's certainly what put a stamp on the end - but as my friend Bruce has pointed out GDP had risen to the 1929 level by 1938. The New Deal appears to have worked. Naturally, we'll never know what would have happened without WWII, but the worst was clearly behind us. Then again, in longer historical terms Depressions often end with war - that goes back centuries. |
2012-11-29T21:59:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/28/its-clearly-different/#comment-15959 |
| Sounds pretty good to me! :-) | 2012-11-21T01:49:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15881 |
| Yes, if you must shop, do it small! | 2012-11-19T21:32:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15877 |
| A good point, as always. | 2012-11-19T21:32:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15876 |
| I let "Buy Nothing Day" go for this post, but I personally support it. It is a good idea to just let this all go and be reasonable. However, if you do want to get your shopping done, please buy from small and local merchants - especially crafters! You can get more unique gifts that everyone will remember! | 2012-11-19T18:53:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15871 |
| Thanks - I thought I would put forward the conservative argument, since I think it is pretty strong here. Doesn't this seem like something we read about in the history of labor organizing in the 1890s? The long hours are just the last straw, once again. |
2012-11-19T18:52:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15870 |
| A good point on the New Deal! The budget deficit never exceeded 6% of the total budget or quite a bit less than 1% of GDP during the entire New Deal - an impressive feat, really. That is important to remember. | 2012-11-16T19:39:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/16/while-europe-burns/#comment-15849 |
| I think that is a good way to look at it. My heart may bleed for the undeveloped world (and cheer the developing world at times!) but problems in Europe have to be theirs to fix (short of third war in a century). Perhaps we should also think about "firewalls" and things like that - something which I believe is very much necessary in general in this new global system. | 2012-11-16T19:37:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/16/while-europe-burns/#comment-15848 |
| That also makes sense. I have read that the old guard was gone after the Revolution, but the process could have started much earlier. I wish we had easy footnoting, especially for off-line sources. Then again, I'd have to find where I got the notion I posted. Thanks! | 2012-11-16T14:36:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/07/william-penn/#comment-15845 |
| We are doing much better than they are, so I wouldn't sweat it too much. Just look at our unemployment rate and compare it to the now-labeled "Club Med" nations - 8% or so versus welll over 20%. | 2012-11-16T14:35:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/16/while-europe-burns/#comment-15844 |
| We are closely connected with Europe, however, so a plunge into a serious 1929 style Depression would hurt us. Then again, as I pointed out, we are as close to Mexico when it comes to trade and we have been largely ignoring the mafia violence that has ripped that nation apart. | 2012-11-16T14:34:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/16/while-europe-burns/#comment-15843 |
| This is not about creating jobs - this is about getting a handle on the restructuring that is necessary to create a new economy. It's based on the theory that at the end of a Depression / Winter / whatever-you-call-it the economy you go into is a very different one than the one that failed at the start. We can't entirely say what the next economy will look like, but we can do things that help it along and remove barriers to getting it started. That's what this is about. It's not really about jobs, although infrastructure development would create a lot of jobs right away. This is about a transformation. |
2012-11-15T21:49:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/14/restructuring-our-economy/#comment-15837 |
| With you on the trading tax completely. That probably does make more sense in the long run. A simpler tax code that is more or less flat would generate a lot of money with a fairly low top rate, and combined with a trading tax that goes to zero after, say, five years might be just the ticket. I'm not sold on any new education programs just yet. There are a lot of things out there and they are generally means tested so I think they work pretty well. But I have nothing to add at this time - this is a list of new things that I think should be done (which is to say, should have been done around 2008, but whatever). |
2012-11-15T17:45:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/14/restructuring-our-economy/#comment-15834 |
| Drew, you may have killed the comments section. :-) The premise is that small businesses that could use extra help because they are growing are slow to hire people for many reasons - and much of that can be attributed to overhead per employee. Some of that we can't change much - training, etc - and some of it we might be able to. Stagnant companies will indeed just pocket the difference, but a bump in profits on Wall Street will have a bit of a ripple effect and lift everyone. Including a rise in capital gains taxes - ie, making big investments less liquid - is very big and I am thinking that over. You may be on to something here. The key is to have stable pools of capital for investment, not capricious gamblers looking only at one quarter's P&L. I'll think about this a lot more and get back to you. We have something to discuss here. History, however, shows that high capital gains rates correspond to higher growth, although I believe that good times support higher rates (ie, coincidence does not imply one causality over another!). |
2012-11-15T17:29:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/14/restructuring-our-economy/#comment-15832 |
| I am not going to come up with a better outline of what needs to be done by government than piece from a year ago: Restructuring Our Economy - A Plan. I almost feel like simply repeating it for more comments. | 2012-11-13T21:17:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15804 |
| Growth is the key, and to me that starts with restructuring - what we can do to support the changing economy and get us more quickly to whatever new economy will replace the old one. Simply put, the technology that we thought would allow us to grow at a higher rate through productivity gains got ahead of us and wound up simply making a lot of workers redundant. Wrap that up with a globalized labor market and workers are really cheap. It won't last forever, but getting us from where we are to where we have to be as quickly as possible has to be the goal. Where is "there"? A good question. We know something about it, but not a lot. Tax reform is the big thing that government should be focused on, IMHO. I do think that a very simple system designed to raise appropriate revenue and little else is probably the best in a time of great turmoil - it allows the free market to go off in the direction it needs to. What can government do to hustle things along? I guess it's time to write about that again, but I feel like I've done that a lot already. |
2012-11-13T20:58:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15803 |
| Bingo. I recommend the link highly, everyone read it! The problem is that we have run such high structural imbalances we've really tried to have it both ways - and we can't do that. We do have to choose what kind of nation we will be, I think that is a very wise way of looking at this. |
2012-11-13T17:48:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15801 |
| It is perfectly reasonable to me to revisit this in many ways. Extend the retirement age? Sure, why not - perhaps even have options for reduced benefits at 65 and full if you retire at 72. Should we change how we fund it? I think that has to be on the table, ideally done with a progressive tax code and something that takes away the 7.62% employer contribution - a tax on employment that only contributes to employee overhead. But these are just huge issues that we are nowhere near mature enough to discuss rationally. It's disheartening. |
2012-11-13T17:46:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15800 |
| Unfortunately, you are right that "entitlement reform" is used as a bludgeon where a scalpel is needed. These programs have dedicated funding sources and needs that rise and fall (generally just rise) that do need attention from time to time - but they have been neglected for many years at this point. The closest I have seen to a Dem position is that Obamacare will produce substantial savings and that more savings can be squeezed out with deeper implementation. If that is true, then great! But as they stand now it is a football. Obama has NOT showed enough leadership on this for my liking, either. If we wait until there is a real crisis there will almost certainly be deep cuts. I'd like to avoid that. The conversation is very much off track and has had nowhere near enough leadership from Democrats. It's as if we hope the whole thing will go away. |
2012-11-13T17:43:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15799 |
| To tell you the truth, I thought Ryan's plan wasn't all that radical and as an opening position was really not all that bad when we talk long term reform. The problem was that the Republicans also ran away from it in an election year. The Dems have yet to get serious about reform at all, which really bothers me - waiting for it to be a crisis is not in anyone's best interests. I agree on progressive taxes for FICA as well, and I keep thinking about how to calculate how that might look. It's all based on an 80 year old model that should at least be looked at seriously. No one has ever seriously proposed that reform, which is not good at all. A "grand bargain" seems like an idealistic daydream right now, but I do think that as a "framework" Simpson-Bowles should be a way of approaching all this that we can attack as we can. We do need a grand overhaul of nearly everything, IMHO. That's pretty scary, but it's either that or hit the wall when we can't afford it. |
2012-11-12T18:12:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15789 |
| I hope Boehner gets some guts, but I always wondered how many votes he could actually deliver. That's probably the problem - he can't deliver doodley-squat. | 2012-11-12T18:07:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15788 |
| I agree that this is a long-term process, and as a Simpson-Bowles kind of guy I see no problem phasing in a many year plan that slowly reduces the deficit. I think we all have to agree that growth has to be part of it, and I also think that restructuring generally has to be part of this. I can't see spending 7X China on defense forever, for one. Smithson's view that you send targets out to the committees and let 'em fight for a year or more is interesting. I think a little action right now might buy time to make that happen, but I don't want to do anything drastic immediately. Obama needs a Robert Rubin, IMHO, who can talk to bond traders and at least figure out what will pacify them. You have a good approach here and I'll bet something like this will happen. But I think we all agree that this is an artificial deadline and the real problem is how it's built up into some mythological big deal. |
2012-11-12T15:20:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15785 |
| "The fiscal cliff is nonsense. Obama and Congress should focus on drafting their pro-growth bills so they can pass them next year. The markets can go to hell." I wanted to say something like this, but telling the markets to "go to Hell" seems to have pretty serious consequences. I haven't totally thought through that yet. I want to encourage growth - yes, absolutely - but as much as I think GS and JPM are disconnected from reality I still mostly OK with the stock market on balance. More in response to Anna, below, but let's keep talking here. |
2012-11-12T15:15:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15784 |
| Largely, you are correct. Obama is there to craft a solution that is not as bad as Romney would have foisted on us, but yes - the debt has tied the hands of government and made it nearly impossible to do anything substantial. I support the Simpson-Bowles plan largely because once we put EVERYTHING on the table I think there will be a big change in how we think about our priorities across the board. The need to raise taxes on the wealthy will be obvious and I do think the Defense budget will look unaffordable. But in the short term we are screwed no matter what, IMHO. |
2012-11-12T03:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15779 |
| I have come to the conclusion that this is entirely a political problem, yes. The debt is very real and continuing to borrow as we are is totally unsustainable - but with all the ways to solve this there is no reason we cannot. So "scaring Wall Street" is a rather real problem in many ways, but letting this fester has not been good at all. | 2012-11-12T03:02:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15778 |
| Thank you. I was going to run down a list of things that the DFL has on its plate, but that list is huge. What will matter most is a combination of long over-due simple reforms, major things we know are pending (like the implementation of Obamacare & exchanges) plus whatever various groups start pressuring for. I don't see anything more important than correcting the permanent imbalance in our state budget, but of course I would say that. Still, it's very important - and the "Minnesota Miracle" has been tinkered with to the point where it's not recognizable. I think there are a lot of "unfunded mandates" foisted on counties right now that the state can and should pick up the tab for - funded out of a restructured (progressive!) income tax and focused on reducing property taxes. I think counties are the place to look for a real reform in state and local relations. And, of course, pay back K-12 and look at the whole situation carefully for major improvement. Once we get the state's house in order we can start talking about new directions and new things, but I think that the fundamental stuff will take huge gobs of time - and should be done with a lot of public engagement to be done well. There are also a ton of civil rights issues out there, mostly in the same-sex area but not exclusively, that we have to deal with. I know of a few native issues pending, too. At least those don't cost us. Really, the list is huge. I've been listening to other people to get a handle on what will be the most pressing as well as thinking it through. It's a lot of stuff. Will same-sex marriage be part of our mix? We'll see. |
2012-11-09T21:02:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/09/soups-on/#comment-15759 |
| The first rule in politics is to never let a vote take place without knowing the outcome. If you're going to lose, find a way to declare a moral victory and/or carry on the fight. If you're going to lose by one, make any deal you can! If you're going to win, stop making deals. If you're on the outside, load that winner up with pork! Rove not only could not predict the election, he wasted a ton of money. Stick a fork in him and let the air out! The rest of those clowns are not doing their party any service by not being able to call this thing, either. It was embarrassing to watch, even from the other side! |
2012-11-09T01:15:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/09/soups-on/#comment-15750 |
| OK, I should have said more. But a DFL legislature does not mean marriage equity is around the corner. Many of those legislators come from districts that did not support the "No" side, and they will not want to support a change right away. There is a lot left to do! Thanks for the quote, tho. :-) |
2012-11-09T01:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/09/soups-on/#comment-15749 |
| I feel that we prevented something bad more than we did something good. The fight for marriage equality is going to be harder ahead than most people think, IMHO. But we'll see. Besides, I'm skipping things that everyone else is talking about. Unlike most pundits who talked about the election being "razor tight" (thus proving they simply repeated each other rather than think) I take my own path. |
2012-11-09T00:52:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/09/soups-on/#comment-15746 |
| As I said, it appears that the process of wresting power from the Quakers diminished their standing in history. I don't understand why we haven't revisited this, however, as it has much more resonance than the Puritan story. | 2012-11-08T16:44:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/07/william-penn/#comment-15742 |
| Exactly. Separation of Church and State is at the heart of our oldest and greatest traditions. It defined at least part of this nation from its very start! | 2012-11-08T16:42:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/07/william-penn/#comment-15741 |
| Thank you! I think this is very important. |
2012-11-08T16:41:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/07/william-penn/#comment-15740 |
| I remember 10 years ago when Paul died and Mondale took his place in the Senate election. I made a green and white sign with a marker that said Mondale! mimicking the Wellstone! in the yard. It just ... didn't really work. Sigh. | 2012-11-05T20:20:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15705 |
| Ha! You win this round! :-) OK, so we need to make it all slogans and hot buttons. Blah. Good point about how Republicans knew Romney was weak all along. Sadly he never had a stronger challenger, however. There was a brief moment I thought Perry would be tough to beat and then ... something happened to him. Whatever. If he is your Kerry, I do thank you. We're even now. :-) |
2012-11-05T17:55:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15702 |
| Ha! I'll keep worrying about it (for no good effect)! :-) | 2012-11-05T17:13:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15700 |
| Thanks. We'll see if this was an isolated case or not, you've given some good reasons why it could have been. My hunch is that polling is getting harder all the time, something not reflected in the methods - which are not changing that much. | 2012-11-05T14:15:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15698 |
| Thank you. I'm still amazed that the polls didn't pick this up, however. It was a very strange situation and it begs more analysis. If it's a total anomaly then it's not a big deal, but I think we may see more of that in this election. Nate Silver has shown that polls which include cell phones can be very different from those without, which means that for all the polls we have this election most may be pretty worthless. Plus, there is that ol' enthusiasm gap. I still believe most of the error is in IDing "likely voters". I know that was a problem for us in a city election. |
2012-11-05T05:37:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15694 |
| That's basically what I'm seeing. Naturally, my sample is only what I see, but long lines in Ohio and Florida are also encouraging. | 2012-11-05T05:33:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15693 |
| Note: This is something I want to revisit after the election after we see how strong the "ground game" was and what coalitions were formed. There may be a lot to learn here and some very important things we need to do to remain strong going forward, particularly where it comes to forming broad coalitions like the statewide organization of those on the outside that made the DFL in the first place. | 2012-11-05T03:35:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15690 |
| Yes, that is what happened. We got smart and realized that things have changed. Big money big media really is dead after all! | 2012-11-05T03:26:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15689 |
| I think you are all fair all around. I'm not 100% satisfied with Obama, either, but I want to stay this course (and not go off on a supply-side tangent that just won't work). BUT ... After this election I have a funny feeling my fellow Liberals will accuse me of going Republican when the debt negotiation comes up. This is some serious stuff. |
2012-11-04T19:54:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15686 |
| Reagan did not come from behind! http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107171/exploding-the-reagan-1980-comeback-myth# | 2012-11-04T03:48:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15681 |
| Well, that is what I based my entire analysis on, so yes. The question was "Has the economy turned around enough to give Obama a passing grade, especially in Ohio?" and the answer is apparently "Yes". That's about all there is to it, really. | 2012-11-03T22:13:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15678 |
| Well, I agree with the first part. :-) Seriously, I think we all expected more than an obvious sports analogy out of this thing. I hope we get some good leadership no matter what happens. Anyone in Nebraska? Vote Bob Kerrey! |
2012-11-02T15:59:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15669 |
| It matters a lot. If you really want a revolution of a kind, vote for Romney - the internal pressure in the Republican party will certainly make something really bizarre happen and people will take to the streets. That's my bet. But I'd rather not see that, thank you. I'd rather people took to the streets to force good people who care to do the right thing within the system. | 2012-11-02T14:42:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15667 |
| Count on it! :-) | 2012-11-02T03:32:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15663 |
| That is what matters - it's getting better, even in places that have been suffering for up to 12 years. What we learned from Sandy applies to all kinds of devastation, even economic. Politics is BS when there is a lot to clean up. | 2012-11-02T03:32:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15662 |
| Thanks! I hope this concept gets out to a wider world. It works for me - besides, we need more adults. | 2012-11-01T16:10:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/31/patriotism/#comment-15649 |
| Thanks. :-) | 2012-10-31T04:21:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/31/patriotism/#comment-15636 |
| Thank you - that would be what I would hope for more than anything. It's the best reminder to vote that there is! | 2012-10-31T04:21:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/31/patriotism/#comment-15635 |
| Thank you very much! | 2012-10-31T04:20:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/31/patriotism/#comment-15634 |
| Nevada is strange, Romney might be able to pull it out but after the Reid election I don't trust their polls at all. I don't think Ohio can go anywhere but Obama - excepting a really big snowstorm. Ug. Ryan does have a future, I'm sure. There is a story he's upping his House campaign lately - a little nervous perhaps. But I think midwesterners like him are going to be the future of the party for a while. Wish the Dems could claim the same thing. |
2012-10-29T20:10:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15622 |
| I was born in the middle of it. One Hell of a list. As Johnson was quoted as saying, "I'm going to be known as the best President there was, better'n the whole lot of 'em!". | 2012-10-29T20:07:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15621 |
| Agree. That's why I don't write about the election very much. | 2012-10-29T15:34:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15616 |
| This election has always been "The other side is worse". It's very uninspiring. It is very much the opposite of what we need right now. | 2012-10-29T14:34:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15614 |
| Thank you! | 2012-10-29T03:55:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15612 |
| I did predict Obama would have a problem with the first debate, given that Romney had been so vilified he would look better just by looking human. That was amplified by a bad performance on Obama's part and a very successful campaign after that by Romney. The "mo" has changed, and did after the veep debate. It's cool. I think we have this still, but it should not be this close. | 2012-10-29T03:54:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15611 |
| Thanks, Larry! The bottom line is that market forces do work - at least over a very important time frame. I agree, we can't dismantle the market that does exist. We can stop screwing with it in various ways, and there is certainly a market developing for all kinds of alternatives that are now economical. It will sort out. In the meantime, some people are making a lot of money on nothing but trading. I think that this can't go on forever and that the cost of trade around the globe has to fall. With the cost of capital lower than it ever has been in the petroleum era, the carrying cost of buying a tanker full of oil right at the source is at a low - perhaps the "value" added by traders is much lower as well, and more fixed deals directly from the source might be in order. I wonder what would make that even more palatable in the future? Seems to me that if a barrel of oil trades 12x, with a little vig each time, there has to be some value in an efficient system that allows a barrel to be held all the way to the refinery. Just a few more thoughts to add to a great addition, thanks! |
2012-10-28T03:50:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15602 |
| I have started to think it's time for the big banks to fail, yes. It's the hard way of creating "Jubilee". | 2012-10-26T20:47:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15594 |
| The whole market is completely out of whack, and as oil becomes more precious it will only get worse without some major changes. Since I have no idea how to re-vamp the market, I look to new sources of supply to shake things up. But there may be a way to regulate this without destroying the needed futures market. I do prefer to not regulate unless it has to be done, but in this case I think we should figure out how. | 2012-10-26T20:01:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15592 |
| I am sure of this. Why it is not talked about and made into a major campaign issue I can't tell you. I will say that oil lobby generally is more these people than Exxon or even the Koch Brothers, and the Republican "Drill here now!" position is very much a diversion away from the underlying issues at hand. It's really sick stuff, especially since the Democrats don't try to make more hay out of it. Even at $0.50 per gallon, we're talking $65B per year that can be identified, and it may be twice that. This is about $1,000 per household per year. It's a lot of money. |
2012-10-26T15:57:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15590 |
| It is close to 12 times a day, yes. I used Kennedy's assertion of "more than 10", since I had a link to the article. No, they don't do this just for fun - there is a tiny profit on each trade, which adds up at the end. I have no idea how to regulate this out of existence, and neither does Obama (who would really like to). We do need a futures market of some kind and these trades are roughly the same as a real functioning market - how can we differentiate? The only thing that would change it is messing up the cozy li'l market they have now. Remember when I described a world currency? Part of the idea is a more open market that had opportunities for stable contracts "on the side" which bypassed the futures market all together. It's really another idea I have for breaking these. To get them to stop will require real pain. Someone would have to go into this market and slam these guys to the point where they lose a ton of money. That would probably break some very big banks, too. I'm starting to think that all these guys should fail and just go away because they are parasites. |
2012-10-26T14:57:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15587 |
| I've never been fond of hydrogen as a fuel because the energy per unit volume is as bad as anything you can imagine! Even batteries are better. So if you have hydrogen (as you would from gas reforming) you really should use it in place, IMHO. I'm thinking of a fuel cell, yes. You're right that oil markets have always been manipulated - it's almost a tradition at this point. Natural gas is indeed going the same way even as we find more of it all the time (and learn how to use it rather than flare it). I do think that the first policy goal has to be to break these guys one way or the other, but the fact that we're looking at alternative sources of supply for gasoline-type fuels will help that tremendously. Thought of another way to look at this. There are many people who believe that gasoline is as expensive as it is only because of taxes ( though only about $0.50 per gallon, depending where you live). We can be sure that speculation is at least as much as taxes, however. Puts that whole big gumint / big business argument into a different light, eh? |
2012-10-26T14:42:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15584 |
| It depends on a lot of things. I believe that ultimately we'll be producing methane from bio sources (as I wrote back in May) and natural gas is just an interim tech, so that would change it. Also, making longer hydrocarbons would have hydrogen as a by-product, which could produce electricity with very high efficiency, so it's not wasted. There are a zillion ways to look at it, but in the very short term a drop-in gasoline is going to be the way to go. And you are right in the long term - something has to give. The way the oil market is manipulated is pretty horrible, however. Simply breaking that would get us somewhere good, I think. |
2012-10-26T04:45:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15580 |
| People in power seem to think it does. | 2012-10-25T22:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/24/work-creates-all-wealth/#comment-15577 |
| Something strange, it's all fixed now! | 2012-10-25T17:21:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/24/work-creates-all-wealth/#comment-15573 |
| I think we learn once we see Brasil start to pass us up. Just guessing. :-) | 2012-10-22T20:59:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/22/inequality/#comment-15535 |
| Thank you! | 2012-10-22T15:16:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/22/inequality/#comment-15529 |
| Yes, that is what I think we are measuring here. The results for China are a bit surprising, but not really - note that their spectacular growth is indeed expected to end shortly. |
2012-10-22T14:59:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/22/inequality/#comment-15528 |
| Fair enough on taxes - there is more to it than just another new program. I think you have another place where a "grand deal" should be identified between the two parties. As for the Economist recs, you may be right. I'm thinking about this. I don't honestly know what regulations are a problem and I do wish Republicans would be more specific about this. If there is a problem I'm in favor of dealing with it. |
2012-10-22T14:59:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/22/inequality/#comment-15527 |
| I am still thinking about what just the right tax policy should be. My guess is that simpler is good, but progressive is very important. Still, we can and should cut many things, especially defense, as part of our balancing plan. I do agree that Greece's austerity has been a disaster. | 2012-10-19T22:02:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/19/paralysis/#comment-15512 |
| Good points. How we live says a lot about the basic "overhead" of life and thus what our disposable income is. There are many reasons to believe that we won't have the disposable income we used to, but big savings in housing and transportation could offset loss of income overall. Debt is always the big monster. At the end of the previous Depression there was very little, since no on was able to take out credit for a decade. It made a big difference in the 1950s! |
2012-10-19T15:10:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/19/paralysis/#comment-15508 |
| Demographics are fascinating, and if Boomers don't retire as expected a lot of things happen. It does save Social Security like nothing else, but we need the jobs for young people. Also, retirees spend less money overall but tend to buy stranger things. And there is the net increase in health care spending (like we can afford that!). | 2012-10-19T15:04:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/19/paralysis/#comment-15506 |
| Thanks! I agree, there is no "boom" in sight. But stability is a good thing, and I can't say it often enough - it follows stability in jobs. That's what Teresa Boardman said to me years ago and she was right! But that's backwards from a "normal" recession. | 2012-10-17T20:36:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15487 |
| An excellent point. Developed nations do not go quietly into the dark night. Once none of the normal rules apply, well, it seems no rules apply. Very good. We should be far more worried about that than we are. | 2012-10-17T20:26:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15486 |
| Interesting point about China, yes. A while ago, probably the first time I mentioned Minsky, I had a graph showing that total US debt was over 400% of GDP. A quarter of that is Federal, another 15% is State and local, but the rest is private. I never did find a breakdown, but I'm pretty sure that at least half of private debt is in households, which is to say quite a bit more than the Federal debt. As much as I love deficit hawks we should remember this the next time one says "You wouldn't run your house or your business this way!" Um, yeah, we kinda do. :-) But yes, refinancing just turns "good" debt into something more like "not so good" debt in the long run. And when there was a bubble it became "ponzi debt" pretty quickly in many cases. Will keep an eye on China - and the rest of the developing world and their appetite for debt. Many other growing nations could see their tendency to use cash for everything fall away as they get used to good times - such as Brasil, Malaysia, etc. Would be an interesting trend. |
2012-10-17T19:26:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15483 |
| There is reason for optimism, if for no other reason than if you don't think we can manage the debt and grow out of it we might as well default now. I think it's at least worth trying before we contact oblivion. | 2012-10-17T19:20:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15482 |
| Fair enough - we do have a lot to fight through. So let's get at it and fight the good (real?) fight! I'm good with that. If we can keep our eyes on the prize and make something happen we should be able to do this right. Call me a dreamer, again. :-) | 2012-10-17T15:36:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15479 |
| My comments were based on reading this while listening to the debate - the prescription seems very much in line with what both Obama and Romney were talking, with different emphasis here and there. Is there a big regulatory burden on entrepreneurship? I have yet to hear a good specific example, but I do wonder if employment regulations and especially the overhead per employee costs (some of which probably come from regulation) can't be managed far better than they are. But as you say, we can't even get a real health care system together, the best way to cut overhead per employee and create jobs. Mauldin is a Republican, no doubt, but he seems to "get it". If they were all like him, I'm sure a deal could be crafted - but of course those in power are not and we're really screwed. The thing about Mauldin is that even when I disagree with him he makes me think, which is all I really ask. I do think the idea of an "economic singularity" where all the fundamental laws of normal activity break down is an excellent way of looking at this Depression. |
2012-10-17T15:35:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15478 |
| Thank you. That was how I was reading this - take away the breathless pronouncement of a new boom and it seems like things are at least going the right way. You and I have talked about how the job loss fueled the bust in the first place, so what you're telling me here is that real estate is following employment pretty closely - just as you said it would. At least everything makes sense! Thing is, in a "normal recession" job gains lag the general pick-up in the economy - but we're seeing the opposite today. People need work before it will turn around. Avoiding words like "Depression" and fancy terms like "Kondratieff Winter" is one thing, but we can be sure this time is definitely different than what we have experienced in our lifetimes. That's what's important. |
2012-10-17T15:29:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15477 |
| Ha! C'mon, they're real estate people, they have to be optimistic! | 2012-10-16T21:30:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15470 |
| It seems pretty out there to me, too, but it's moving with the job market. That makes sense. I take this kind of talk entirely as proof that the data we're reading on employment - slow but steady gains - is correct. Declaring victory in either market would be premature, yes. I think we're still very close to a (flattish) bottom. |
2012-10-16T21:30:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15469 |
| Good for you! :-) As much as I'd like to give Obama credit, I have come to believe that we are simply waiting out the secular bear market. |
2012-10-16T21:28:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15468 |
| This might be important for Ohio, yes. We will see. The Veep usually doesn't matter much, tho. | 2012-10-11T21:17:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15450 |
| I believe a deal will have to happen, and that moderates will play at least some role in brokering it. It may be all behind closed doors, but the possibility of something much bigger is still with us. So I'm dreaming - stranger things have happened in dreams! :-) |
2012-10-11T16:00:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15447 |
| There simply aren't any real options before us except Simpson-Bowles, from what I can see. Any other ideas? | 2012-10-11T15:59:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15446 |
| You are right that one party rule has often included more across-the-aisle than when they are close. Good observation! Still, the level of this crisis is something we have not seen for a long time. If it becomes deadlocked, which I expect, strange things might happen to keep it moving. With the House certain to be close (though I suspect still Republican) this should be interesting no matter what. |
2012-10-11T15:58:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15445 |
| That's right, we have a Veep debate. I always hated those. Still, Biden should prove more formidable than Obama was, we'll see. | 2012-10-11T11:50:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15444 |
| In yer dreams! :-) I still think this is in the bag for Obama, mostly because Ohio is just not trending any other way that his. That's pretty huge. | 2012-10-09T05:27:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/08/party-on-the-jobs-report/#comment-15424 |
| Better stimulus, that's always my answer. Well focused and strategic. Obama is getting a lot of heat right now over alternative energy, but this is one area I agree with him 100%. But - the budget imbalance is a huge problem. We do have to have a plan for moving forward with growth and a balanced budget of some kind. Ignoring the problem is only going to make it worse and everyone knows it. The fear that cultivates is a real problem. |
2012-10-09T05:26:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/08/party-on-the-jobs-report/#comment-15423 |
| I agree, it's fascinating. My daughter recently studied Stalin's USSR and was utterly horrified. It turned her off a true "gender neutral" view of the world forever, among other things. Her view of politics has now been colored by the idea that genuine evil can be done in the name of something that sounds good in theory. I think it's a good perspective. | 2012-10-09T05:24:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/08/party-on-the-jobs-report/#comment-15422 |
| Fair enough - you don't really know a bottom until it's behind you. I can buy that. But I think the real spin is that recovery is happening. | 2012-10-09T05:22:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/08/party-on-the-jobs-report/#comment-15421 |
| OK, that's valid. I'll have to think about it. There is a place for subprime mortgages and other loans, no doubt, but it's all about appropriate assessment and labeling of risk. The bubble was all about just throwing that out the window. What's a better way? Canadians often note that their home ownership is about the same as ours without any government programs and no interest deduction, which is a fascinating point. Is it possible that our attempts to goose the system only add complexity without advancing toward the goal? I'll think about the rest. I'm starting to get a bit Republican on government loan guarantees generally, hoping to rely on regulation - especially regulation that revolves around assessment and labeling. That may not be enough or even reasonable. |
2012-10-05T19:46:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15395 |
| They all have masters, you know it, too. :-) As for defining terms precisely in law, that rarely happens. It was deliberately left up to the regulators, a normal procedure. And that has been refined since the passage of the law. As for Fannie and Freddie, I'm starting to side with Republicans that they are such a problem that getting rid of them may not be a bad option. A serious overhaul is at least worth talking about, if that is possible. Right now, they are indeed a "dumping ground" for sub-par mortgages, which can have a purpose but it is clearly being abused, IMHO. |
2012-10-05T18:14:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15392 |
| Correction made (what a dumb mistake!). And yes, I agree with you on him. He's not going to do anything his big supporters hate. To hear Romney carp about this half-measure with few real consequences says a lot about who his masters are, IMHO. | 2012-10-05T04:39:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15386 |
| Sorry, but the link does not work. Want to try again? You are right, Glass-Steagall is what is needed. I've called for that separation between commercial and investment banking to become a global standard as a way of putting up a few walls to contain problems around the world. But there is so much more needed to modernize banking and make a much stronger connection to reality on the part of big banks. |
2012-10-05T04:36:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15385 |
| Excellent! That appears to be what this is all about. | 2012-10-05T01:20:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15382 |
| Thank you, that's very helpful. It's about what I thought I had heard about it, too. | 2012-10-05T01:20:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15381 |
| Thank you, I want to do my part to increase our understanding and participation in making important decisions about the economy. We have a few strong leaders at the Fed who are doing all they can, but our politicians need a good kick to get their job done. That''ll have to come from us all, I think. The more people are engaged the better. | 2012-10-04T01:31:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/03/through-the-looking-glass/#comment-15375 |
| Trying to be personal again, eh? Well, I still think the future is our cities, and the trend is strongly with me right now. There are other ways to sell the message, and I decided to take that path. Still hate cars? Yup. But things are taking care of themselves, and that's the good news. Time to work on other things. | 2012-10-04T01:29:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/03/through-the-looking-glass/#comment-15374 |
| Thanks! Yes, at least make them scared. I'm with that. | 2012-10-03T03:54:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/03/through-the-looking-glass/#comment-15369 |
| That's always a possibility, but keep in mind that many such incidents are a chance to look more "presidential" than anything. It's a tough road for Romney no matter how you look at it. | 2012-10-02T23:32:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15367 |
| Yup. There has to be a way to take care of the people who do the things that make the world go 'round but don't necessarily earn a "salary" doing it. We have something in place that's pretty darned good, and it would be a shame to lose it. But we have to pay for it somehow. It seems to me that after 50-80 years there is a time where an overhaul is necessary - something that reflects the changing nature of the economy. But wow, having that discussion now is nearly impossible. |
2012-10-02T01:58:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15361 |
| This is an age-old question, and I don't have a good answer. I will say that in practical terms, the simplest tax system is likely to be perceived as the "fairest", and that is important in a Democratic-Republic. If the rate is low enough, the relative "unfairness" that comes in due to (excessive) simplicity is small, so that should probably be a goal as well. And it is probably best to generally have one system that covers just about everything. So I've long been in favor of a "Flat Tax" with a zero rate based on the poverty line (times 1.5 or so?) and a flat rate on absolutely everything after that. This may be too simple, but taxing everything the same helps keep the marginal rate low. The US Government received about $920B in income tax last year, which is just 7% of all household income (!!). If you allow $20k tax free per household, you're still looking at really low rates on what is left over. So that's the approach I'd take to start with and see where it goes. I did all the math on this a long time ago and it seemed to be less than 20% for a rate after a high standard deduction no matter what you do. Should most Americans making the median income pay no taxes at all? Eh. A small amount sounds reasonable, and given the payroll taxes everyone that is working pays something into the system. Romney's comments are ones I've heard from other Republicans, and they confuse me no end. Wasn't this done rather deliberately with tax cuts through the 2000s? Hello? There's not much to complain about no matter what, IMHO. Whether or not it's a good idea I'm not so sure. Payroll taxes are starting to really bother me (gee, can you tell I'm self employed? :-) ). |
2012-10-01T21:18:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15359 |
| Yes, that is very true. Times like these any hope people have will be vested in youth and energy - that's where someone like Paul Ryan comes in. However, if you buy the K-Wave business cycle analogy, someone very old is exactly what you need - someone who remembers the last cycle like this. It's what makes Alan Simpson, for example, so compelling IMHO. | 2012-10-01T16:37:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15354 |
| Wow, you got the announcer schtick! That's funny. I was watching Sunday Night Football as I wrote, and that's where the idea came from. Funny, and a good call on your part! | 2012-10-01T16:35:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15353 |
| He may try to get wonky on us and talk about plans - that could be a good strategy, and his (complex!) plans have not been discussed at any length in the press, it's true. That would be a good strategy, IMHO. | 2012-10-01T15:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15349 |
| I think people are more confused about where to go from here than happy with it. | 2012-10-01T15:03:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15348 |
| It seems strange that people are likely to vote Obama in pretty big numbers but return a Republican House. I know that people often vote "for the best person", but given how polarized everything is you would expect more ideological / party voting, I'd think. Perhaps voters, or at least a decent number of swing voters, aren't as polarized as our press is? Or perhaps it's deliberate, as Anna said? Dunno. | 2012-10-01T04:15:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15345 |
| Thanks! I've never seen anything I thought was credible written on deliberate "ticket splitting", and I doubt that many people do it consciously. It seems a bit too elaborate to be likely. But you never know. |
2012-10-01T03:07:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15343 |
| Yes, I agree on all counts. And I don't want to sound hard on the Fed because what they have done is exactly what we should reasonably expect that they should. The process of exceeding their normal charter has been a long and somewhat torturous one that goes back about 10 years and is an attempt to pull off a small miracle. The results were mixed - what could we expect, in all honesty? As for Europe, you are right on. Each nation used to constantly race to the bottom to see who could support employment with the weakest currency around. The Euro killed all that, but so many of them found other ways to continue their profligate ways that were a part of the whole process all the same. They should have been in a proper marriage years ago. Instead, they are living together and after a nasty fight thinking about upping their commitment with a joint checking account. It's not enough - they aren't committed to making it work. They still want to be able to walk if the fight gets really nasty. |
2012-10-01T00:53:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15341 |
| As usual, you've hit the nail on the head. Why was our monetary policy so loose for so long? There was talk of deflation as early as 2002, which is when the famous "Helicopter Ben" comment was made. The policy makers clearly were more worried about that than inflation through the decade. Between Greenspan's actions a "Deficits don't matter" I think it is clear that they were managing this Depression the whole time. This implies that the various bubbles (housing being the nastiest) were almost deliberately created. The question, to me, is "Can you manage a depression with fiscal and monetary policy alone?" They were clearly doing their best, but the answer appears to be a solid "No!". And their efforts were being repeated through the developed world the entire time, so it's not just the US acting alone. The USD carry trade became significant, too, which adds a new wrinkle to globalism as we know it today. But yes, I think this was all very deliberate and we were caught on the downside when the bubbles burst. What we see in retrospect was certainly in the back of Greenspan's mind at the time, but the Fed acted as it did anyway. That they were looking at things in a very different way from everyone else seems to be the only reasonable conclusion, IMHO. |
2012-09-30T21:11:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15338 |
| Thanks. But it will get worse, at least in some way! :-) | 2012-09-29T21:02:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15333 |
| Yes, we can credit Bernanke. I have been a bit critical of QE3, largely because it's so open-ended. I also do not understand how it is supposed to help when the same methods (buying mortgage backed securities) had limited effect on the economy before. But he is still the one person in the US - and maybe the world - who is on top of this! He is the Manager of the Managed Depression, and he's not doing a bad job at all. Just wish he had more support - and didn't have to stray so far from the Fed's charter! | 2012-09-28T17:06:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15330 |
| Thanks. The complacency with the pace of the restructuring seems very strange to me. People do seem to accept this more and more, which is good in a way - it's probably what we see in that rather high consumer confidence number. But we still have no sense of urgency when it comes to the fundamental problems. | 2012-09-28T17:04:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15329 |
| Thanks. That is one funny assessment of Europe. It's worth saying again - Merkel was hardline on everything until it looked like Germany was in trouble. Politicians are about the same everywhere! :-) | 2012-09-28T03:31:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15326 |
| Being able to hire replacements is one thing, but when is it just not a good idea? Quality just can't slip in the NFL - it really is a total luxury product after all. :-) Had a long talk with my kids tonight about how unions work, and they were pretty confused by the end of it. Funny how one came in pro-union and the other against, and now they are just confused. I value my time as a Dad. :-) |
2012-09-27T00:58:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15322 |
| Yes, the idea that companies can police themselves is ridiculous. I do think that there are better ways to regulate than we have done traditionally, especially in environmental issues - so much is non-point these days it's hard to lean on one source. But we still have to do something to move ahead. Self-regulation is silly. | 2012-09-27T00:55:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15321 |
| It's been on constantly since Monday! I agree, there will be playoff implications, so it will never die. And Packers fans will keep bringing it back, too! | 2012-09-27T00:52:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15320 |
| A very good point! No one else has made that, so it's all yours. I do remember that is the normal procedure in the End Zone - knock it out the back. | 2012-09-27T00:50:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15319 |
| They were ready - there is an NFL official in the "booth" above the field watching everything. They have the power to reverse calls and so on. It's not clear what happened in this case, however - but they anticipated issues. | 2012-09-27T00:49:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15318 |
| Good point - I don't know how many losses are "real". I can tell you that the league took over Phoenix, so the "losses" are being felt by the NHL itself. | 2012-09-24T19:00:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/24/blood-money-on-ice/#comment-15301 |
| Hockey, in particular, is fueled by passion. What I find interesting here is how the situation is very analogous to what I think is going on with the US government - an immediate problem that requires a lot of good will to solve (and is thus ignored as long as possible) with a long term problem that can't be dealt with until the immediate one is fixed. | 2012-09-24T18:59:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/24/blood-money-on-ice/#comment-15300 |
| I hear ya. Another lost season would pretty much kill the league, and they don't seem to realize that. The fans are outraged. | 2012-09-24T18:58:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/24/blood-money-on-ice/#comment-15299 |
| I don't want to go there. There are way too many side effects, and protectionism clearly made the last Depression worse. The idea of some barriers is something we've talked about, but trade barriers seem to always be counter-productive. If you have a very good example maybe we can talk, but Brasil has its own barriers in corruption and distance that are far more important, IMHO. | 2012-09-21T22:35:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15290 |
| I should try harder? :-) | 2012-09-21T22:33:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15289 |
| The usual long-term thinking from our resident conservative. :-) You are right - they were doing well enough to shield them for a while, but not forever. | 2012-09-21T22:32:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15288 |
| True, but I have yet to figure out what *we* would export to the developing world. Scientific instruments have long been a good source of cash for us, but it's hard to say. I don't know if strong demand elsewhere is a big net gain for us or not. | 2012-09-21T22:31:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15287 |
| Yes, highly specific skills and an ability to do everything, too. I'll bet that if they are looking for a BS Chem/Biochem it doesn't actually pay all that well, either - maybe 50k a year? | 2012-09-21T22:30:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15286 |
| I am working on it! | 2012-09-21T00:25:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/19/idiot-diet/#comment-15272 |
| Thanks! :-) | 2012-09-20T16:32:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/19/idiot-diet/#comment-15269 |
| Note: Romney and the Republicans are re-tooling. They have given up on the "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?", which is something I was wondering about here. I think that's about it for this election - barring a big gaff in a debate. | 2012-09-18T22:17:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15258 |
| I saw. It's not everywhere yet, but it will be. And it should stay there. This could have some effect on the election, but we'll see. | 2012-09-18T15:05:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15256 |
| A twitter discussion I want to bring over here for comments: Someone took issue with this statement - "this kind of money has to eventually become inflationary". The counter was that no, we control inflation through monetary policy, and that if inflation became an issue the Fed would simply raise rates to contract the money supply. Or a 140 word version of this. :-) I countered by admitting this was true and asking, "But wouldn't that take a higher rate than if this was never done in the first place?" No answer yet, but people don't go into twitter constantly. I'd like your opinions here, if I may ask. Thanks! |
2012-09-18T14:36:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15254 |
| Good point. But I worry that this is not effective enough for now and buys us trouble later. | 2012-09-17T21:26:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15253 |
| I avoided that piece by the Byrds (actually written by Pete Seeger) in my last entry. It was the #1 song the day I was born, incidentally. :-) I'm not against QE, but I want it to be effective. I'm just not sure about this round. |
2012-09-17T20:49:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15251 |
| I think that's a reasonable perspective. | 2012-09-17T20:47:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15250 |
| I admit, I'm perplexed by this action on this front. It's more of what they already do, which I thought was shown to not be that effective at goosing the economy. Maybe they had to buy MBS to stabilize the market in the first round, but they are talking about stimulus here. What? | 2012-09-17T20:47:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15249 |
| I think it's been very bad, but perhaps another two years of this and the Republicans will find their calling and actually try to get things done. We all seem to agree on what will happen, which is interesting given what we want to happen. Barataria has a fun crowd! :-) | 2012-09-14T14:56:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15226 |
| An excellent addition, thank you! Leave it to our accountant to introduce market forces into the debate. :-) | 2012-09-14T14:55:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15225 |
| That's where I think something stupid could happen, which is what I think it would take. Interesting upset pick, I think you may be right - Biden is a better fighter than people give him credit for and Paul Ryan has not had this kind of pressure before. | 2012-09-14T03:07:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15221 |
| That seems to be the case right now. They don't seem very confident in themselves, always a bad sign. | 2012-09-14T03:05:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15220 |
| Very few people are thinking in the very long term. Google "secular bear market" and I think you get a complete list. :-) | 2012-09-12T22:56:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/12/surviving-thriving-realizing/#comment-15211 |
| Thank you, I am working on this. I think that time scales go to the heart of the matter and I will try to make it as simple as I can. I think a lot of people understand "survival mode", especially these days, since we've all be stuck in it at some point in our lives. This is why the message of "Hope" was so powerful, BTW. It's the antidote to "survival mode". It's just so hard to repeat it after four years of a lot of drifting. However, I should also add that I think that whoever is elected this time will probably look like a genius for reasons that are not going to be their doing at all. Thanks again - any assistance you can provide in making this message more clear is very helpful. |
2012-09-12T04:38:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/12/surviving-thriving-realizing/#comment-15206 |
| Thank you. But this is something I think we need to discuss a lot more as a nation. | 2012-09-12T03:35:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/12/surviving-thriving-realizing/#comment-15204 |
| Footnote: The realization the other day that we are on a pace to reach something like full employment by 2017, right on schedule for a typical "Secular Bear Market" or business cycle phase to end, has shaken me to my core. It's amazing how accurate these predictions can be. This post does not deal with the biggest cycle yet, the rise of the Developing World. I will deal with that omission later as it is at least as important as how business cycles run through in the Developed World. |
2012-09-12T03:19:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/12/surviving-thriving-realizing/#comment-15202 |
| I think it's very legitimate to talk about the nature of work and think about how we are going to structure it. Granted, there is no way we can limit someone's hours in a week, especially in this "Gig Economy". I don't think it would be Constitutional, for one. But the structure we have is 80 years old now - and productivity has increased insanely since then. The stock market can and should be the best way that everyone can enjoy the fruits of this, I would say. But it's run more like a casino. Is there another mechanism? It's all worth thinking about. |
2012-09-11T20:53:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15191 |
| Yuppers. They are in very deep. I'm starting to think that the Jubilee is the only way out for them. | 2012-09-11T20:45:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15190 |
| And if everyone did that, you know there'd be a futures market for WCH in no time. And then a bubble as the price skyrocketed. :-) | 2012-09-11T20:44:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15189 |
| Agree on that last part - only bad news is good news. It's so complex it will take months more to figure out what, if anything, actually happened. Ug. | 2012-09-10T17:35:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15181 |
| Wow, time has gone by. I will be there this afternoon! | 2012-09-10T17:35:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15180 |
| I love it when your conservative streak comes out. :-) The negative interest note is very interesting - you're right, it's a big change, fast. They are printing Euros. We all said a year ago they'd have to (the link is in the article). |
2012-09-10T17:34:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15179 |
| OK, that will take some more explaining. :-) | 2012-09-10T17:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15178 |
| That is a good point. Part of the reason we have the labor structure we do (overtime for many after 40 hours) is to "share the work", something that had to be done in the last Depression. It is definitely something that should be discussed. Why should these mythical "productivity gains" tend to accrue primarily to the investors, not the workers? | 2012-09-07T19:43:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15161 |
| LOL! Very funny. That wasn't what I was trying to say, but ... I guess I did, eh? :-) | 2012-09-07T16:50:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15158 |
| Yes, I expect it too. Well, if I was a talking head on teevee I would respond to some of the stupider arguments with "Yo Momma so old she went to school wit Jesus" or one of the other less offensive snaps, just to make a point. So maybe that's why I can't get one of those gigs, eh? :-) | 2012-09-07T16:19:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15156 |
| I really hate the "headline unemployment rate" for a lot of reasons, and this is probably the most important. I wish it would just go away, so I ignored it for what I thought was the most interesting information in these jobs reports. It is true that not everyone will re-enter the labor force at the end of this Depression. Some will retire, some will raise kids, and so on. But from month to month we get these statistical anomalies that everyone hangs on as if they are important - they just aren't. |
2012-09-07T16:17:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15155 |
| I think it all adds up, and the fact that we're on a pace to see "full" employment sometime between 2015 and 2017 tells me that this is just simply running its course. I get that from observing that the ADP report regresses out to 180k jobs/mon in about 33 months, or 5.4k jobs/mon^2 acceleration. If that holds (and it's one damned straight line so far, with some noise) we will add a total of 12M jobs (already added 2M!) by mid 2015. You get that with total = 1/2 a*t^2 . I'm being conservative by saying 2017. Pretty straightforward math, really. |
2012-09-07T16:15:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15154 |
| I have been told they have an underground following at my daughter's school. Which is probably appropriate, no? :-) | 2012-09-06T00:31:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15136 |
| And I'll tell you, my daughter only knows the music of Dylan from that list. Interesting? | 2012-09-06T00:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15135 |
| You are right, there were many good punk acts - but will any make it to "classic" status? Dead Kennedys? Suicidal Tendencies? Black Flag? | 2012-09-06T00:29:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15134 |
| Sorry, but the Replacements and Husker Du were unknown outside of this part of the nation. I know nothing about them at all, to be honest. | 2012-09-06T00:28:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15133 |
| I think we're avoiding progressing into the 90s for the natural 20-year old music comeback. Grunge and gangsta Rap? Nah. | 2012-09-06T00:27:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15132 |
| I did save the graph from 1947 on here: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?graph_id=86247 The last time it went this negative? George HW Bush lost his re-election bid. It was 3-4% consistently through the 50s and 60s, dropped off through the 70s, was pretty anemic in the 80s, but picked up in the 90s only to slide back down as we've seen. I think we can say that the last generation has not see any significant gains in real (inflation adjusted) wages except for a few years in the late 90s. I may have stumbled onto something important here. |
2012-09-03T16:32:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/03/labor-day-holding-on/#comment-15108 |
| I will look into how I can easily add a regression line, but your call of a zero date is not far off, I think. The actual data was right at zero then, too. It does explain a lot. | 2012-09-03T16:29:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/03/labor-day-holding-on/#comment-15107 |
| I think that is a lot of what he had to say today, but he is holding QE3 in reserve. Basically, the Fed has gone about as far as it can (and further than it maybe should have?). | 2012-09-01T00:58:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/31/the-real-power/#comment-15091 |
| They were. It was a non-event, but that alone is worth saying something about. Happy Labor Day! :-) |
2012-08-31T22:24:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/31/the-real-power/#comment-15089 |
| Yes, I don't wish hurricanes on anyone. Respect! | 2012-08-30T22:17:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15074 |
| Yup. The house I grew up in was built in the 1960s. Took 200MPH sustained winds with hardly any damage. There you go! | 2012-08-30T22:16:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15073 |
| Yes. The wet ones are always the worst, or so the old-timers used to say. | 2012-08-30T22:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15072 |
| I went down after it was over - it was so flat, and not a single landmark remained. Just awful. Took years before Perrine looked like anything again. | 2012-08-30T22:15:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15071 |
| I remember a lot of tropical depressions or whatever that curved up from the Caribbean that left huge puddles. A piece of wood or stiff cardboard and we were wompin'! :-) I didn't go through Andrew, but I saw the before and after. My folks have the stories. I miss the trees we lost - persian lime, key lime, orange, grapefruit - a real plantation of great delights. |
2012-08-29T03:59:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15060 |
| Honestly, though I know a fair number of people in Wisconsin, I don't know anyone from or currently living in Janesville. I know that my ex father in law didn't like Ryan, but it's been 9 years since I spoke to him - Ryan was a freshman congressman and didn't come up much back then! I haven't been to Kenosha in at least 10 years. Greg Dahl? Been a long time since I heard that name. He was pretty conservative in many ways, including being pro-life. Yes, I did meet Paul Simon and I also supported him. As for being privileged, I agree with your assessment. I recently described a 15 year old me as a "punk kid". Oh, and you're off a little - Dad was a Professor of Chemistry. Experts are important in this world, but there is a balance. We can't rely on them to do everything without losing our sense of Democracy. A perfect balance would include a lot more dialogue, where experts have to explain where and why things need to be done - but this rarely happens. If you read it carefully, it's not "experts" that bother me, it's experts who hide behind jargon and set themselves apart. If I could have one career of my choice, it would be as a writer whose job is to translate things out of jargon and technical talk so that ordinary people can understand them (or, at least, ordinary people with some decent education). I think you can see that my "hobby" of economics includes a lot of this and has gotten me a bit of a following. People do like this - and challenge me when I get stuff wrong. My statement on "experts": http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/expert-opinion/ |
2012-08-28T23:28:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15058 |
| OK, I'll bite. You've been doing a lot of homework. It's creepy, but I'll go with it. I have a lot of stories relating to African Americans and how they have been able to get along in our nation. If you read back far enough, you'll see that I've written some of them here. I haves never thought our nation is perfect, just awfully good. As for Dave, we live in a district that does not have a significant African American population. Dave's opponents have typically been Anglo, which given the Latino population of our district is a bit strange. I was never a big Dayton fan - was a Keliher backer, if you'd read about that. Dayton is doing OK, but he has good people working for him. So did Ventura and Carlson (and even Pawlenty, for the most part). The state seems to work pretty well, all in all. As for being the grand force for the liberation of all people in the world, I have very mixed feelings. When I was young I thought that was our role in the world - to extend our blessings to all people. As I've gotten older I see that this is very difficult and that conditions have to be right. I would strongly support intervention in Syria right now, for example. What's our role in Afghanistan? Without being there, I can't say for sure. But in principle we should indeed be doing something, yes. It's a matter of what would genuinely be of benefit to the people and not just an extension of a war that prolongs their suffering. |
2012-08-28T23:08:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15057 |
| Aaaaand, let's leave my ex-wife out of this, OK. :-) However, we do talk about this a lot - and that's between us. :-) | 2012-08-28T02:24:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15044 |
| You have a point. Let's just say that among re-elections that got this far the President has won them all except GHW Bush, Carter, Hoover, and Taft in the last Century. I forgot a lot there, didn't I? But recently it's been a walk for everyone (except Johnson, the exception!) which includes GW Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower, FDR, and Coolidge. So it's still pretty likely. | 2012-08-27T19:00:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15039 |
| Shucks, we all have off days. :-) I will work on it and get it into my schtick. :-) | 2012-08-27T17:25:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15037 |
| I think there is a lot to be made with this, especially given the polling. If women have a 15 point gap for Obama, the overall being close means there is a more than 15 point gap for Romney among men. That's probably what will decide the election, given that they are probably not as set in their vote than women are at this point (given all the small blow-ups we've had). I will keep reading the tea leaves in polls to see what I can discern. | 2012-08-27T17:24:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15036 |
| A very good point! I will watch for that - if so many people are watching this, every detail counts! | 2012-08-27T17:22:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15035 |
| But there remain many things that are best understood by the guts and by instinct. You can't get away from them. There are many forms of intelligence in a human, and pure reason is simply one of them. As I said, an ongoing conversation between the different intelligences is the only path to being a complete person. Reason is definitely a part of this process with an important role to play, but it is not the only intelligence in a human. The emphasis on sensory input is what relates objectivism to existentialism. Both are inherently limited by their own design - they start and end with the same perspective, the self. Standing outside of yourself for a moment is beneficial for many reason, not the least of which is an incredible advantage in negotiations (always have to bring things back to the material when arguing with objectivists). Consider the Tao Te Ching from 2,500 years ago, as posted in the first comment. It's a much more complete philosophy, and much shorter. And consider what it means to be outside of yourself for a moment. It's much more interesting than being limited by your own ability to reason. | 2012-08-23T13:50:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14996 |
| I agree. The intrade futures on Obama took a decent jump when this incident got out, so this does seem to be a "last straw" to many people. A hurricane in the middle of the convention would be pretty serious, too. But - we live in a time when a lot of "outliers" can happen. We never know until it's over. |
2012-08-23T13:40:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/22/gaps-gaffs/#comment-14995 |
| Thank you! >blush!< I try to be reasonable. I've run campaigns, which helps a lot - I think very few commentators have actually been close to a campaign, which is pretty strange. How they get their jobs is beyond me. :-) | 2012-08-22T18:49:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/22/gaps-gaffs/#comment-14984 |
| It probably is impossible to close it completely, but in a tight race going from a 15 point gap to a 10 point would be huge. They could still do that, but after Akin I think it's pretty unlikely, too. That means they have to find something else to get some traction. My hunch is that nothing is really going to change this election at all in the next 2 months - people are pretty set on which side they take. |
2012-08-22T18:48:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/22/gaps-gaffs/#comment-14983 |
| Maybe I am a bit too easy on them, but I wanted to deal mainly with Romney, the standard-bearer. He's not guilty of anything in this fight, but he will be tarred with it all the same. As for the party generally, they need a lot more discipline. They used to be very good at that - to the point where even a liberal Democrat like me was pretty jealous. Not any more. |
2012-08-22T18:46:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/22/gaps-gaffs/#comment-14982 |
| We have two things going on here. Objectivism is very much like existentialism in some important ways. The political expression of it, Libertarianism, is different. Many things views opposed to the Soviet Lenninism / Communism - and it's a damned good thing they won. But it was somewhat inevitable as it was all a terrible idea that could not be sustained. It was a question of when and how, I think, and getting it behind us sooner was ultimately a good thing. The world still does have a bit of a hangover from that sorry period, though (Syria, for example, and Iran). |
2012-08-21T14:53:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14959 |
| Well said, and you are right. People who simply want the smallest possible government are hard to argue with, but real Objectivists are impossible to argue with. :-) | 2012-08-20T17:47:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14948 |
| Thanks. It's very common for young men who think that the world is holding them back to think that this is the answer. It's a bit delusional, but very understandable. It's not until you get older that you start to think that maybe doing absolutely everything is not exactly a great idea anyway. :-) | 2012-08-20T17:46:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14947 |
| Thanks! Yes, it's just no fun at all. There has to be much more to life, doesn't there? | 2012-08-20T15:12:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14943 |
| I agree completely - PowerPoint doesn't kill presentations, people do! :-) | 2012-08-20T15:11:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/10/powerpoint-goes-boom/#comment-14942 |
| Addendum: It didn't belong in this post for reasons of both space and unity, but here is Stan Rosenthal's translation of Tao Te Ching chapter 5 - IMHO a much more interesting way to approach issues of perspective and morality: Nature acts without intent, so cannot be described as acting with benevolence, nor malevolence to any thing. In this respect, the Tao is just the same, though in reality it should be said that nature follows the rule of Tao. Therefore, even when he seems to act in manner kind or benevolent, the sage is not acting with such intent, for in conscious matters such as these, he is amoral and indifferent. The sage retains tranquility, and is not by speech or thought disturbed, and even less by action which is contrived. His actions are spontaneous, as are his deeds towards his fellow men. By this means he is empty of desire, and his energy is not drained from him. | 2012-08-20T15:03:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14940 |
| Indeed, that is what counts more than anything, IMHO! | 2012-08-17T17:43:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/17/tesla/#comment-14920 |
| No, things don't change. That's part of why I think the Tesla story is so important. I have met a lot of people vaguely like him in both their brilliance and their lack of motivation by material stuff. | 2012-08-17T17:43:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/17/tesla/#comment-14919 |
| They have become intertwined, perhaps unfairly, but the "Current War" was a big deal in its day. Edison lost and Tesla/Westinghouse won. Tesla has been latched onto by people who don't really understand what he was trying to do, and the wireless transmission of electricity did seem to be a bit much. But he is still a very important person and may yet have more to teach us! |
2012-08-17T17:42:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/17/tesla/#comment-14918 |
| Whoa - I would never say "evil" for finance, it is what it is. But the way some businesses are run are contrary to our history and social values like freedom. 3M used to be one of those resiliant manufacturing companies - self insuring, operating along independent division lines, allowing a lot of room for personality and personal development. That changed when the market imposed its own rather narrow values on the company in the 1990s. There has to be room for more models of how to run a company (like in the piece you gave me to chew on, above!) and some are more reflective of the values we have as a free people in other aspects of life. Carnegie? He was a good guy, no qualms there. Mellon? Ah, that does get interesting. More later when I'm not on the road. :-) The problem with Big Anything is that our belief in freedom and expression lends itself to a very Free Market, something which becomes an abstract ideal when things get very large. It's different from capitalism, where the money makes its own way, IMHO. Big can be made to work along the lines of our values, but often it hasn't. That means that either our social values change or the market has to. History shows that we have often intervened to force the market to be more open and accesible, and that's a tradition. Are we really going to change that now? What does that mean to our other values as a people? Things like "good" and "evil" are defined by our values. We believe in stuff, and it should reflect in our daily life what we believe in. Does it? |
2012-08-15T14:32:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/15/miscellaneous/#comment-14883 |
| That is very interesting, thank you! I wonder what changed for VC between the 90s and 00s - perhaps the low hanging fruit was taken? Anyway, I will read this more closely. Thanks! | 2012-08-15T14:25:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/15/miscellaneous/#comment-14882 |
| Yes, the Standard Chartered thing is starting to look like a shakedown by New York. Just pay us, we'll go away. Yeesh. | 2012-08-15T14:23:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/15/miscellaneous/#comment-14881 |
| This is a chance to explain why I thought Quayle was far too much maligned - he was a decent guy, too. He didn't always answer questions quickly because he thought about stuff. And I remember in 1992 in his concession speech when he said the name "Clinton" and the crowd booed, he had a great response - "Now, if he can run this nation as well as he ran his campaign, we'll do all right." No one can say anything bad about Quayle to me after that without an earful. Good guy. Need more Midwesterners. :-) |
2012-08-14T23:49:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14863 |
| I only went past Janesville on I-94, don't know anyone there at all. But my kids have pretty deep Wisconsin roots. :-) Jobs is the big issue, but it really hasn't come up. I'll get into that some more - once again, Obama going net positive in jobs is a pretty big deal and takes away the most powerful argument. The rest? I'll let you crow for a while. :-) |
2012-08-14T23:47:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14862 |
| I would never vote for Ryan, but I think it's important to respect our opponents when they seem to deserve it. Tell you what, if I'm wrong about him I'll admit it. But if we do get a better discussion of what's in front of us as a nation I'll be very happy! |
2012-08-13T21:56:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14832 |
| It is hard to see us really getting our act together. I look for any small reason to hope, I guess. I also really hate Walker, so I'm with you on this one. I think what he did was really sleazy. |
2012-08-13T21:54:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14831 |
| I'll agree with you on the root causes if we can add something about willful inattention to projections/demographics/etc. As bad as it all looks it seems pretty fixable if you accept we aren't going to rule the world and we're going to have to pay for what we get no matter what. Those appear to be really big things to accept, which is why I have trouble taking most "conservatives" seriously. Which gets me to Ryan. I do think this guy is the real deal because he must have understood how badly his message on Medicare would be received, but he's been pushing it anyways. I don't see any leadership like that out of Walker, for example, who seems like a pretty fake trickster all around IMHO. I don't begrudge people having a different opinion about how to run a society from me, but when you know it's so unpopular you can't state it up front (such as union busting) you're just a coward. Tangent - take "Obamacare", for example. Those against it have never suggested an alternative. Does that mean they support the "system" that we have now? And how on earth do they think they have the right to be so adamantly opposed to something without any kind of alternative? Back to Ryan - I don't agree with him, but I like the fact he's so upfront. Pinning the right down is the first step towards making a deal - or at least engaging in real dialogue and maybe getting the press away from the gamesmanship crap and into real analysis (call me an idealist on that). We have serious problems that needs serious solutions! |
2012-08-13T18:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14824 |
| You "real conservatives" are seriously coming out of the woodwork on him - I guess that means you are enthusiastic! :-) | 2012-08-13T17:59:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14823 |
| Interesting! All I ever ask is that politicians propose real solutions. I don't have to agree with them, but as an opening shot in the negotiations Ryan's plans are really not that bad. If that takes you over to the "Dark Side" we'll miss you, Anna. :-) | 2012-08-13T14:34:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14816 |
| I wonder the same thing - or something like what he proposed. At the very least, it's better than letting the program go broke, which is a very real possibility if we do nothing. | 2012-08-13T14:33:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14815 |
| That looks great, I should read it. To me, the real problem is the hierarchical approach to information - a one way street from "expert" to novice. PowerPoint seems to stifle dialogue in a rather blunt way! | 2012-08-13T14:31:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/10/powerpoint-goes-boom/#comment-14814 |
| It is, I am sure! | 2012-08-13T14:29:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/10/powerpoint-goes-boom/#comment-14813 |
| Thanks! | 2012-08-13T14:29:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/10/powerpoint-goes-boom/#comment-14812 |
| Thanks! You do have to wonder what it will take to get serious reform started. How many more scandals will there have to be? | 2012-08-08T19:44:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/08/what-nothings-wrong-here/#comment-14739 |
| Not at all! This is something I've been on top of for years. It's getting something to change that is the hard part. | 2012-08-08T19:43:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/08/what-nothings-wrong-here/#comment-14738 |
| Thank you. It's good to have an accountant's perspective on this! | 2012-08-08T18:17:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/08/what-nothings-wrong-here/#comment-14735 |
| I think this scandal could be a great thing. Time will tell, it's still very young! | 2012-08-08T18:16:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/08/what-nothings-wrong-here/#comment-14734 |
| Yay! Someone got it! File this under "Analogy trimmed for space and staying on topic". :-) | 2012-08-06T19:17:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/06/investabots-amok/#comment-14704 |
| Another very good point - that took them days to catch up on and match the trades. Today, it takes us months to figure out what happened. It is very much the same, except even faster and far beyond our ability to make any sense of it. | 2012-08-06T17:35:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/06/investabots-amok/#comment-14702 |
| Thanks - I have to feed you at least one per article. :-) | 2012-08-06T17:34:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/06/investabots-amok/#comment-14701 |
| Excellent point, it's the recklessness that is the problem. But yes, the real problem is that the fabulous market that nearly everyone had some role in back 20 years ago has become something ordinary people stay away from. They killed the golden goose. | 2012-08-06T17:34:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/06/investabots-amok/#comment-14700 |
| I have seen an uptick. II think this is real. But - even if it is, will it last? At least it's not as bad as 2011, when a lot of promise took a dive. Then again, it really picked up again in December 2011. | 2012-08-03T19:18:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/03/job-excitement/#comment-14682 |
| It isn't nearly enough, no. We might be in trouble, especially if technical failures continue to plague the market like Knight Capital. | 2012-08-03T19:17:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/03/job-excitement/#comment-14681 |
| For a site that prides itself on thoughtful conversation, I can see that this topic managed to tick off just about everyone! I guess I had to do it someday. :-) I don't mind somewhat personal questions, and this is all OK for me. It's going to be a long campaign, I think, and it will get nastier. I want to make it clear, however, that I don't approve of "my side" bringing the nasty, either. |
2012-08-02T14:36:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14671 |
| I do make a joke about everything, even the Free Market (which I both love and fear, I admit!). "Moral Hazard" has become pop psychology, but you are right that it is an important economic term - one that we have failed to heed completely and almost certainly will more in the near future - it is a problem! I don't think I said anything snide about George Romney, and if I did I apologize - he seems like he was a pretty good guy. Mitt could use that a lot more, I think. As for 3M, no, I've always had about the same view. There's a balance to making great new things and not screwing up the planet. 3M does a pretty good job, generally, of not doing bad things. They also provide much needed jobs in addition to important innovations. So no, I'm not your typical "liberal". But I do take that side when it comes down to it. |
2012-08-01T04:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14659 |
| I am sort of getting at that, but to be honest I came to this particular post's conclusion after taking a step back and looking at what is going on. But you are right in that I very much *want* to take a step back and figure out what on earth could possibly come from this $10B venture we're in the middle of. It seems awfully shallow. I tend to be more mad at "my side", too, because I do expect better. I don't think Republicans do that, BTW. :-) |
2012-08-01T04:24:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14657 |
| Pawlenty? Two extremely white guys doesn't sound like a very balanced ticket. He can do better than that. Oh, I and I disagree with all the other stuff you said, too. :-) |
2012-08-01T03:51:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14655 |
| OK, OK, I could have made my feelings on the way Kerry was unfairly hammered more clear! Yeesh. But yes, Romney is under a lot of pressure right now and the press are like dogs - they can smell fear and pee on everything to make it theirs. On the fundraisers - I'm looking into that. It seems really strange to me. Has anyone else ever done this? It seems to be a much bigger issue than mis-speaking about the Olympics, for one. |
2012-08-01T03:15:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14653 |
| I didn't think this would be popular. :-) I'm not commenting here on the truth of the charges, but the process. I agree that Kerry was badly defamed and was a genuine war hero. I also agree (as I've said before) that Mitt deserves to have his "business" record scrutinized because it is very much flawed. However, what's likely to stick to Romney is not what I think is the most legitimate criticism. I think the lack of tax returns and the stories that are fantasized out of that information-less vacuum will become the problem. If that goes down, it will not only be the same process that Kerry felt, but much more similar content than even Romney-haters like both of us (yes, both of us!) will be comfortable with. Consider this equal parts observation and prediction. I also thought it was time to step outside my DFL comfort zone a bit and try to be as objective as possible. Feel free to tell me how badly I missed the mark. :-) |
2012-08-01T02:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14651 |
| Yes. Rather than address the issue, they seem absolutely desperate to change the subject. They are trying way too hard most of the time to make him sound important. And he, like Kerry, is just terrible off the cuff. What I see is them over-handling him even more in the next month, which will really smell like doom. If they had hit this head-on they wouldn't be in this predicament. They really should have seen it coming. |
2012-08-01T02:36:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14648 |
| Yup. But it can only go on for so long before something happens. | 2012-08-01T01:42:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14643 |
| Thank you, that is interesting. That it lasted until 2006 is something I'll have to think about. | 2012-08-01T01:41:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14642 |
| Aw, I sometimes blame it on Reagan, but there was a shortage of investment capital at that time and the policies adopted then made sense, to be honest. But that doesn't mean they kept making sense throughout the last 30 years! We had a choice to make long ago about how to run our "Empire" based on a US Dollar Standard and the biggest, baddest military the world has ever seen. We haven't done a horrible job, and as Empires go we're definitely not the worst there ever was - and we did leave behind a lot of benefit to many places. But those days are over, and history will ultimately judge that Empire of ours by how we leave it behind. The UK did a great job on that, folding into the Commonwealth and re-evaluating what it means to be British over and over in their popular culture (if you look at it a bit sideways, that is). So we remember them pretty well now. I think we'll do the same, especially since we were never a traditional "Empire" in the first place. But I would like to hurry the process along. $700B a year in Defense Department alone (doesn't count Homeland Security, etc) and a total balance of payments over 30 years of $8.2T leaving our shore is a total drag - it won't keep up forever. Thanks for the good links from Krugman, and good to know that the investment money isn't draining us like the consumer expenditures - but to everything there is a season. I really do believe in K-Waves / Business Cycles / Jubilee (in the biblical sense of it, too!). "To everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under Heaven". You know, that was the #1 song the day I was born ... :-) |
2012-07-30T20:35:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14634 |
| Thank you. That line seems really obvious to me, but I really can't explain it in less than about 800 words. I am really trying because I think it's important. I'm very glad that you agree because I'm starting to think it's the most important thing we have to do right now - and given all the stuff that needs attention, that says a lot. | 2012-07-30T17:48:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14631 |
| Thanks! What about your olympian horse? :-) | 2012-07-30T17:47:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14630 |
| Your feeling is pretty typical among people I talk to, which is why I say that most people seem to "get" this in their guts. It's a matter of articulating it so that people have something to actually think about and discuss that's important. I do try to do that as much as I can. The guy is Sancho Panza, from his statue in Madrid. I want to remind people that I'm not Don Quixote, I'm Sancho - doing my duty to keep things from getting too crazy after the whole world lost its mind watching too much ... well, whatever this is that the Big Media throws at us. :-) |
2012-07-30T17:46:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14629 |
| Thanks! Book? When I get time (or a big advance!) Office? When I lose my mind. :-) | 2012-07-30T17:44:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14628 |
| I have been drifting, but it's been with a purpose. :-) I don't like just complaining, I like finding solutions that are worth discussing - ones that come from a different way to look at the problem and could lead to a way out. That's how I came to the conclusion that the end of the Dollar Standard is actually in our best interests at this point, so I had to imagine what that might look like. Also, the piece on Velocity is important, because I'm focusing on what that really means and how to repair it. But it does stand as a bit of a tangent on its own, yes. |
2012-07-30T17:42:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14627 |
| I've been working on it. :-) | 2012-07-30T03:23:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14614 |
| Thanks - if we can't tell this as a story, it'll never make it into the heads of the people who make the decisions - and that better damned well be the people of this Democratic Republic. Most people "get" this in their guts already, it's just a matter of bringing it up into their heads. | 2012-07-30T03:22:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14613 |
| The Yuan is probably low, but I don't think it's as low as many pundits claim - probably 5-10%. At PPP it's pretty close, given that things are cheap there. Inflation may change all that, which is the main reason they need to float it. How do they get away with a non-convertible currency? Beats me all to Hell. I do think it's inevitable that the Dollar Standard will fall just because the volatility is a serious risk. When everything was calm and even it was great, but upsets here and there yank the dollar around and prices change like crazy on everything. I was going for stability in my currency design for this reason. A single global currency with a central bank? Maybe one day. I'm proposing a kind of interim step and that next one may be desirable some day. But I think that too many developed nations would fight such a thing now so I don't see how it can happen. Just my thought. I came up with something that would satisfy most of the needs for a global standard and could be implemented right away - rolled out slowly, even. That could catch on soon. |
2012-07-27T16:05:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14566 |
| It's all global trade. We set up a system where we benefit from growth in trade. No wonder we got fat 'n happy! | 2012-07-27T16:01:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14565 |
| Yes, that is typical Munch. He was a fun cat, if a handful at times! | 2012-07-27T16:00:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/27/cats-pride/#comment-14564 |
| Eh. 353k Initial Claims is good, not great, but I don't totally buy it anyways until I see the monthly data in a couple weeks. We're still going nowhere, I think. Howz dat? :-) | 2012-07-27T15:59:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/27/cats-pride/#comment-14563 |
| Wow. Momcats (of all kinds) are really something! | 2012-07-27T15:58:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/27/cats-pride/#comment-14562 |
| Give them time. They are about to collapse. | 2012-07-26T03:58:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14543 |
| Here is that balance of trade graph: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=71341&category_id=0 The total amount of money that left the US since 1980 is $8.8T (getting used to everything in trillions yet?) That's a lot of money to leave our borders, and it should have trashed the US Dollar. But it didn't because demand has stayed high for the global currency. That's the price of our Empire - above and beyond the price we pay in blood, that is. It's time we put an end to it all, IMHO. |
2012-07-26T01:47:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14539 |
| Sorry, I still don't know why it breaks. This is a good move for us for many reasons, but the possibility of regaining manufacturing jobs is the best reason. It also would make it possible for the Fed to manage the US Dollar much more effectively, among many other things. And it would probably stabilize prices on commodities - just noticed today that gasoline prices go up and down as much as 35 cents a week! |
2012-07-26T01:41:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14538 |
| When it comes to elections, we wind up with two choices - both from big tents and a lot of history, both with flaws. You can pick you side and I won't insult you for it. Well, not too much, at least not while sober. :-) Politics, however, is the greater discussion of working things out as a social arrangement. I use two definitions - 1) The art and science of human interaction, eg "office politics" or "domestic politics". 2) The operating system of a Democratic-Republic When it comes to politics, more discussion is good. This upcoming election was framed by discussion had years ago, maybe decades. I'd like to frame it as much as I can with a new discussion based on what the Hell happened over the last few decades. We're stuck with two deeply flawed parties and two candidates who have their own debts, personalities, and agendas. But we can sure crank up something interesting as long as we have everyone's attention, I think. Well, it's worth a try, damintall. :-) |
2012-07-24T04:17:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14517 |
| Won't disagree with a thing here. But the idea of resiliency, or ability to ride out the vagaries of life in the middle of a big continent without help from banks and other institutions, made it all work. It was almost in spite of being generally capital starved (although there is a reason there is a big banking center in both Minneapolis and St Paul - these are the banks that made opportunities where New York wouldn't dare go). It just seems to me that the same principles apply no matter the weather - natural or human made. There have to be natural breaks in the system, places that are self-sufficient on some scale. Those used to occur, as much as possible, at the very smallest level. It wasn't efficient - Lord, no. But it was resilient. There has to be a way to properly measure and track resiliency. And I do know that keeping something "salted away", to use Anna's term, made you a takeover target in the 80s and 90s. 3M, for one, changed completely in that time. And now, the Greek government lying about its finances for a decade can screw over everyone all around the world. This is not a global system that makes any sense. No matter what Black-Scholes-Merton tells us, not everything can be properly insured with market forces because markets are not entirely rational or regular. The theories we have today manage ordinary risk very well but fail utterly when it comes to extraordnary risk - making the latter nail-bitingly ordinary at the end of the day. No. This ain't right. The old way had its problems, but this way is lunacy. But it was enforced with great rigor and revel by outfits like Bain that made a lot of money off of it. That left us all unprepared, as if Pa Ingalls took the harvest time off and kicked back. Winter sucks when you aren't ready for it, natural or Kondratieff Winter. That's the lesson of the Great Plains, IMHO. |
2012-07-24T04:12:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14516 |
| All true, but we accepted it pretty universally. I think many people believed they could be rich one day, too. Certainly, the Boomer generation seemed to buy the idea that with a 401(k) they could all retire rich. Not so much a decision but a beguiling. |
2012-07-23T18:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14512 |
| I don't think anyone is aggressive about the stock market or any of this corporate buyout stuff anymore. That's interesting, given how cheap money has gotten. But we do have to assess the damage done in the past, and the fact that a genuine king from that era is running for President seems very strange in a way. But, of course, it's also to be expected. It just means we have to speed up our assessment of the situation and get a handle on it. Where do people put their money now? I have no idea. I would hope they take Warren Buffett's advice and invest in stuff they can see, ie local. |
2012-07-23T18:29:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14511 |
| Sure, throw the wisdom of Solomon at me. :-) | 2012-07-23T01:38:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/20/solar-weather/#comment-14506 |
| We live in a pretty hostile universe, so the one true miracle is that we exist at all. But it's not as though life on this planet hasn't been nearly extinguished before. We could well be the next Dinosaurs, a species that inhabited every part of this globe before their voracious eating habits made it impossible for them to survive a decent sized shock. There is always a new threat. The only thing that upsets me is when we make up threats to each other, like a bunch of bored cats. There's plenty out there. "May you live in interesting times," goes the old curse. Does it get much more "interesting" than this? |
2012-07-23T01:37:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/20/solar-weather/#comment-14505 |
| Yes, that is definitely going to become a part of our larger media / conversation. And just in time for the election, too. Not good for Obama. | 2012-07-23T01:33:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/20/solar-weather/#comment-14503 |
| Thank you, but I think we're all better at saying what's wrong with "the other guy" than ourselves. I'd love to debate a true "conservative" who can articulate what's wrong with the left - and I have met quite a few. I think I covered a bit of what's wrong with the left in that piece I did on Marx a short while ago, weak as that criticism was. | 2012-07-23T01:32:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14502 |
| I try not to talk about it a lot, mostly because I am not sure, but I am a skeptic of human-made global warming. I do think that the effects we have seen are mostly part of the ordinary cycle, but what we are doing can't help at all. How much is natural and how much is man-made? My guess would be 50-50, but it's only a guess. I expect a pretty dramatic cooling at the end of this sunspot maximum, which should peak next year. There may be other strange effects through this cycle. It's not as though things just get hotter or colder - the atmosphere has to adjust, and that takes both time and a lot of turbulence. The loss of the Jet Stream may in fact be related to cooling, for example - less heat pushing northward from the Tropics and a much more atmosphere. No one is sure yet because the cycles are a bit long and we don't have great data doing back long enough. |
2012-07-20T16:35:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/20/solar-weather/#comment-14479 |
| True, I don't talk about T-Paw a lot. Mostly, I think he's done as a politico, but we'll see. Veep? Naw. Portman is a much more interesting choice, IMHO. Ohio is a much better prize, and I think Portman could deliver it. | 2012-07-20T16:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/18/catch-a-break/#comment-14478 |
| We had some relief since I wrote this, but the drought also got my attention. Really bad stuff. | 2012-07-20T16:29:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/18/catch-a-break/#comment-14477 |
| Exactly - and there are a lot of people like him out there! | 2012-07-20T16:29:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/18/catch-a-break/#comment-14476 |
| Thanks. The West End of St Paul is the place to be! :-) | 2012-07-20T16:28:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/18/catch-a-break/#comment-14475 |
| That is also true. It's really looking bad, IMHO. | 2012-07-17T03:16:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/16/taxing-returns/#comment-14438 |
| Thanks. :-) Yes, it was broken. Sorry. All fixed now! |
2012-07-17T03:15:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/16/taxing-returns/#comment-14437 |
| Hello, Rick. First of all, name calling does nothing to further your cause, but if you insist on doing it be my guest. I can assure you that regular Barataria readers will likely just ignore you. If you'd like to join the discussion, you're more than welcome to. Despite my being a "stupid bastard" and an "idiot" you do seem to want to have a debate with me, and that's fine. Now, as to the topic at hand, it was on how we're losing a generation during this Depression. I didn't see any response from you on that, so I'll assume that you agree. If your argument is that the economy was running well under the Bush administration, I would like to ask you how we could run such a large permanent deficit - on the order of 5% of GDP - and still have economic growth of less than 4%. It seems to me that there were serious problems in the economy dating back to at least 2001 that were only being papered over with a lot of free cash. Thank you for participating in the discussion on Barataria. I hope that in the future we can engage productively. |
2012-07-16T14:34:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14426 |
| Not to quibble with you too much, but I date the economic decline, what I call the "Managed Depression", to 2001 for a variety of reasons. In terms of the ethical/moral/energetic decline, I think you are right that things took some time to sink in as the administration went off the deep end. The Iraq War remains a bizarre diversion that we never really did regain our footing from. We've seemed rather lost since then. I have also predicted that this will last until around 2017, given the usual K-Wave cycle length - and that seems to be about right so far (if it's not longer!). All of this is my speculation, of course, and it takes time for Depressions to both sink in to popular consciousness and to leave. My main point in this piece is that the current phase of the Depression is going to leave some lasting scars, much like the Great Depression of 1929 did. I think we agree on that for a lot of reasons. | 2012-07-13T23:41:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14416 |
| Very close, I always imagined that duck joke at the Dubliner. :-) Barack Obama is a lot like an Irish bar on St Patrick's Day - getting a beer is all about "Hope". :-) |
2012-07-13T19:10:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/13/fight-with-funny/#comment-14409 |
| Not bad ... :-) | 2012-07-13T15:17:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/13/fight-with-funny/#comment-14405 |
| That's the plan. It's all funny, when you think about it. Could you possibly mess things up more than, say, JP Morgan? (earnings today!) | 2012-07-13T13:17:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/13/fight-with-funny/#comment-14403 |
| There is one like that going around - A liberal, a conservative, and a moderate walk into a bar. The bartender says, "Hi, Mitt!" |
2012-07-13T13:15:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/13/fight-with-funny/#comment-14402 |
| Exactly. I would like to see a solid effort to send these guys to jail, but if it can't be done for various reasons the least we can do is start isolating them. That's what the Glass-Steagall Act was all about - setting up a wall between the ordinary Commercial Banks that keep the economy humming and the cowboys that take big, global risks. The more I think about it EVERY nation needs to have that wall to keep contagion from spreading, which is why I called for a new Bretton Woods international agreement. | 2012-07-12T14:36:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14398 |
| I think it is almost desirable. Every day it seems moreso. I don't see that much downside, to be honest, if somehow a federal agency can seize the remnants and keep the credit cards working. | 2012-07-12T02:27:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14395 |
| I doubt China will land hard, but it is a possibility. So yes, let's think this through ... They probably won't go easily, it becomes a question of some kind of war with the outside world or a revolution within, I'd say. To tell you the truth, it may not be a bad thing in that it would stop the flow of cheap manufactured goods and might open jobs in the developed world. But I'd be afraid of military problems. I think that they are going to have to have major reforms to reach the next level no matter what - even more than what is mentioned in that good article. So they have a rough time ahead no matter what. Yuck. |
2012-07-12T02:26:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14394 |
| Thanks! | 2012-07-11T04:11:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14384 |
| I think it's a great start, but 4 years is a long time to let this go. Things got way out of whack in the meantime. | 2012-07-11T04:11:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14383 |
| I think Walker's recall failed by the margin of people who think the idea of recall is ridiculous. Voters tend to be very practical first, or at least the swing voters (10%? 20%?) are. Fiscal discipline is fascinating, the more I think about it. Every developed nation has run a deficit of some kind for 30 years - and suddenly we all have religion about how bad that was? Seriously, if it's bad (and I do think that permanent, structural deficits are) why did it take us so long? And how do we make sure we don't do this again? The "Jobs War" around the globe gives every nation an interest in thrashing their currency, which has to stop somehow. The best way is to build up a system where the downside is very obvious. I don't yet know how to build that regime into globalism. Another topic for another day. | 2012-07-09T19:52:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14374 |
| When I called for a Jubilee with debt forgiveness and a new international agreement on currency, I assumed that something like budget balance would come into it. So yes, I think we should have an agreement and perhaps that would give us the push we need to get this accomplished. But I wanted to put it in the growth framework, hence the QE with debt forgiveness as a first step. I would hope everyone could agree on it generally. | 2012-07-09T15:36:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14371 |
| I think we're already there, to be honest. If we move anywhere towards balance it will feel like austerity, and I can't see us continuing the way we have without a real budget even one more year. | 2012-07-09T15:34:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14370 |
| Been a while? :-) Thanks! I was going to do a whole post on that as an anaology, but it seemed pretty thin. | 2012-07-09T15:33:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14369 |
| I think it will have to go that way. Real tax reform would be nice, starting with a simpler system that isn't cobbled together with "breaks" here and there, but generally it has to move that way if Obama is going to rally the left and get us all excited enough to make something happen. And if it does happen ... well ... | 2012-07-09T13:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14364 |
| I do not know just where the spring was, but like you I can imagine where it was. There is one sinkhole / cave that is bigger than the others that may be what the Spanish found so intriguing, but I'm sure that they noted all of them. I remember those frame houses and all of that area before Andrew. It was paradise. I had similar experiences sneaking into the estate as a kid in the late 70s / early 80s that I treasure beyond words. Somehow, they only show up in my life in contrast now that I've moved so far up north. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/songs-poems/short-stories/black-iguanas/ Best to you, brother! As long as we have the memories no one can keep us out of those walls. :-) |
2012-07-09T03:22:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/songs-poems/short-stories/cutler/#comment-14361 |
| Landfills, as we know them, are not at all designed to produce methane - they are kept as dry as possible and not turned over in any way. The trash that is put there is not sorted based on its potential value as nutrition for the bacteria that could produce methane. Having said that, regulations requiring the methane from existing facilities to be captured is reasonable - and potentially profitable. It would be far more interesting to explore what it would take to turn municipal solid waste into a net energy producer using anaerobic digestion. You'll note that I dealt with farm waste here, which is a pretty shameless punt on my part. The reason is that the waste or crops going into the system are pretty well known and start out separated well. Not so with municipal waste. I think it would be a great idea to start performing some small-scale experiments with municipal waste and seeing what we can reasonably do to turn it into a source of fuel. Requiring existing landfills, badly designed as they are for anearobic digestion, to capture what they can is very reasonable as well, IMHO. But it's nowhere near ready for prime-time as a source of a city's methane (currently natural gas). Yes, let's do it! Make what we can with what we have! |
2012-07-09T03:18:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-14360 |
| Hey, I'm the oldest GenX, so I get the crustacean award. :-) Seriously, back to the K-Waves, those definitions match the secular bear/bull markets perfectly. And they are less than one "generation" long - which is about 30 years now, or the media age of the parents at birth. Fascinating, no? | 2012-07-07T17:31:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14355 |
| I don't know what will motivate people the most at this point, but I think that people are starting to talk with each other about the economy - and that has to favor Dems right now. We will see. There appears to be even less enthusiasm on the Republican side - but low turnout favors them generally. | 2012-07-07T17:27:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14354 |
| Even if you aren't a fan of Obama, one of these two guys is going to be President. Which one you think will be better? :-) | 2012-07-07T17:26:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14353 |
| I am not sure about the Millenials, but the ones younger than them (born after about 2000) are not hopeful at all. I don't blame them. | 2012-07-07T17:25:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14352 |
| I think that's a common perspective. It could be a lot worse, but it's just not getting better - and no one is taking charge of the situation. That blame usually falls on the guy tat the top, right or wrong. So Obama does have a growing problem - unless this changes around fast. | 2012-07-06T19:45:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14345 |
| Thank you! I try to provide examples for everyone. :-) | 2012-07-05T19:44:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/04/flying-the-flag/#comment-14341 |
| Thank you! Been surviving the heat, hope you are OK as well. | 2012-07-05T19:44:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/04/flying-the-flag/#comment-14340 |
| Actually, I am reporting everything here as accurately as I can. To be honest, however, the idea that this is our catechism is something I stole from George Will. It really did come to me when I needed it most. :-) | 2012-07-04T15:21:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/04/flying-the-flag/#comment-14333 |
| I am never quite sure about Greenspan. He did understand the deflationary risk long before anyone else, but they had the data no one else did. Yes, I write about finance. I try to write about the stuff ordinary voters really should know - but somehow never makes it onto the news. There's a ton of background that seems to occupy a lot of space! As for a global currency, I think we can define one pretty easily. I've been thinking about this a lot, actually. Let's call it the "Trade Weighted Exchange" or TWX. It can be defined as a basket of the top currencies or a basket of top commodities, probably both. It would be great to have a "Central Bank" that does nothing but maintain the TWX and has no interference in sovereign nations. Here are the nations that together make up 50% of world trade (in 2011) with total imports and exports in $T: European Union $4,475 1 United States $3,825 2 China $3,641 3 Japan $1,596 4 United Kingdom $1,150 5 South Korea $1,082 6 Canada $921 7 India $793 8 Russia $748 9 If the TWX was half this and half the top commodities (not sure what they are right now, but I know it would include wheat, rice, oil, steel, and coffee!) weighted by their relative share, we'd have an exchange medium that would minimize the variation / risk. A Central Bank could hold reserves of each of these in the right proportions totaling about $5T ($14T total world trade less the roughly 2.8 turnover per year - just an estimate, tho!). Commodities could be purchased as futures in a way that helps stabilize the markets, then sold as they reach maturity for a small profit that would pay down the debt needed to capitalize such a bank. What you think? :-) |
2012-07-03T15:28:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14327 |
| Yes! That is exactly what I'm talking about! A little inflation will help us right now, to be honest. It would allow the Fed to raise rates and get out of the liquidity trap. It would also stabilize housing prices among other things. Just 5 years ago, in 2007, the rate on the 10yr TBill was over 5%. That's much more normal. Even if inflation was near 5% (versus less than 2% now) it would be a net gain for banks, because the real rate of return would actually be positive (!!). It would open up lending once again. So yes, some inflation is part of the plan. I would never advocate printing $3.7T right now, but printing $1T with an effect on the economy of more like $1.6T (just my own estimate) would be a great start! We could always have QE4 later if we had to, but I doubt it would be necessary. The other thing that is important is that if currencies all around the world print about as much (relative to their own economies) there would be inflation, yes, but the order of everything would stay pretty much intact. For the same $3.2T I'm talking about here among the top 4, the total world could theoretically print the equivalent of about $5T and forgive even more debt - and we'd all be in about the same place. I know gold is really popular and a lot of people like to rant about the inherent instability of "fiat" currencies like we have around the world, but the real problem is that we aren't using our "banking" currencies (alternative word) to their full potential right now. There's a shortage of cash all around the world, and a true "reflation" along with debt forgiveness will help a lot! But ... here's the catch ... it suggests that we really make a full reset and don't just throw cash into the old, decaying structures we have now. We need to make it a true investment in the Next Economy and a clear one-time shot. |
2012-07-02T20:18:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14322 |
| I didn't have any specific ideas on this with regard to international boundaries, but separating commercial banking from investment banking (ie, a new Glass-Steagal Act) would go a long way. Commercial banking is largely internal to any nation, and investment banking bleeds across borders all over. It's the best I can think of without really intervening in the free market, but there may be other steps that are worth taking. I tend to be pretty conservative when it comes to regulation. But I'm willing to hear other ideas. |
2012-07-02T20:10:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14321 |
| JP Morgan really is chilling, isn't it? They are clearly just playing games with little regard to consequences. I agree that they could fail shortly and I would love to see Jamie Dimond squirm. As for getting this going, we could convene the global conference and get this going right away as the first thing. I think that a lot of central bankers would agree to it, especially in unison, so it might help get things moving. Shared work is the best way to build community, so it might get them talking across many lines and help move the harder stuff forward. I did call for a new Bretton Woods in 2009, but I thought it was so obvious with the new administration and all that I didn't push it. I remain shocked that this has not happened. The best way to end a global shortage of dollars (ie, the reason why QE is attractive) is a new currency regime. Since we know one is coming, why not push it forward now? There will be a lot of support for such a move - and it will back China into a corner since they have been calling for this for a long time but still refuse full convertibility for the Yuan. It'll be put up or shut up time for them. There are a ton of details to this concept, some of which I could never anticipate on my own. But it really has to happen. (correction - it was October 2008 I wrote about Bretton Woods, and I saw an upcoming conference on the financial situation as the place where it would happen. Wow, was I naïve! http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/20/out-of-the-woods/ ) |
2012-07-02T16:59:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14318 |
| I might just write an eBook on this topic. I have been looking for a good angle and this could be it. May have some spare time shortly, too. | 2012-07-02T16:53:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14317 |
| Happy Canada Day, too! :-) | 2012-06-29T21:04:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/29/decisions-decisions/#comment-14296 |
| I think people will like Obamacare more as they get to know it, too. | 2012-06-29T21:04:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/29/decisions-decisions/#comment-14295 |
| They are not printing more Euros, no. They are loaning money from a function of the ECB. It's really simple and yes, it took a serious crisis before they got around to it. Sigh. | 2012-06-29T21:03:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/29/decisions-decisions/#comment-14294 |
| Inflation is interesting, isn't it? A little bit is a good thing, but a lot is horrible. What is the right amount? The Fed did announce that they have a target of 2% (which we have been hitting square on lately!). I am very confident that the way out of this Depression is going to include debt forgiveness and a whole lot of inflation at some point, ideally coupled with serious productivity gains. It's either that or we become slaves to someone, and I don't see that holding up well, either. |
2012-06-27T18:35:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/27/velocity-of-money/#comment-14279 |
| Historically, it has been 2.5-3.0 in good times - such as in the 90s. When we talk about controlling the economy with loosening/tightening credit that's what we're really talking about. I won't share graphs going back into the 1960s because the different definitions of "money supply" produce very different peaks, and the details are pretty sketchy. I think this only works over one definition of "money" and only over a short time, to be honest. | 2012-06-27T15:44:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/27/velocity-of-money/#comment-14275 |
| Thanks. It is all about perception of value - and, as Adam Smith said, "All money is a matter of belief." Velocity is a derivative of money itself, more about the change in money, and so it apparently is entirely about perception of how well people are doing. I'm not finding anything more technical than that, sadly. I'll keep trying - and if you come up with anything please let us all know. | 2012-06-27T15:41:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/27/velocity-of-money/#comment-14274 |
| I've never seen anything on velocity that was not mostly psychology based. Expansion of credit makes people spend more, for example, but most of the effect has to do with the feeling that you have money to spend. | 2012-06-27T15:38:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/27/velocity-of-money/#comment-14273 |
| All I know is that things are going well there. They handled their banking crisis by nationalizing the banks that were failing (temporarily) and forgiving a lot of loans, so they got through the crisis back in 2009 and appear strong. That's about all there is that I can say! | 2012-06-26T22:15:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14263 |
| I don't have a good answer in any kind of flexible workforce, ie a "Gig Economy". It would be great if something more like "Guilds" were formed around professions, but that naturally relies on a restriction to a free market - and there are always hungry people out there who undercut as well as prospective clients who really don't care that much about quality. Formation of effective guilds with effective accreditation programs has proven to be essentially impossible. So backing away from the ideal case we go from absolutely nothing to ... ? I just don't have a good answer, short of full employment. |
2012-06-25T20:45:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14261 |
| You really hated the Marx, didn't you? That's OK, I want to update what he talked about and translate it into modern US terms - talk more about aspirations and opportunity. Sharing and community is a post that's been a long time coming but I think I'll hit it this week sometime. It should never be about "force", but social "coercion" to do the right thing has held great societies together for as long as they were effective. That's why I went on about "values" in response to Sheryl, above. Without values it does all fall apart, and that is the downside of a diverse world. But I do not think it has to be that way and I do not think that laws/taxes/etc replace social cohesion! | 2012-06-25T18:04:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/25/folk-inspiration/#comment-14259 |
| You're right - this is like the old fax chain! I'd appreciate any help you might be able to offer where it comes to boiling all of this down to a simple message. I have no problem with being a televangelist, though I have to get on teevee. I do look good in a white suit, however. :-) You understand what I want to do very well. Start with the deeper message and work out to the quick pitch. Then, in public, work that same process backwards. And copywrite all the materials and sue the bejaysus out of anyone who calls it all a "cult". :-) (kidding on that last part) |
2012-06-25T17:59:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/25/folk-inspiration/#comment-14258 |
| I can't claim that line, but I can't remember where I got it! Long time ago. :-) Fundamentalists of all kinds (Christian, Moslem, atheist, whatever) cannot claim a monopoly on values. We all have values that shape and are shaped by our perspective on the world. Pop culture seems to be amoral at best, as if there is no common sense of values that can possible appeal to a wide audience. I think that's BS and I further think we can develop really strong values that make sense in a diverse world where people are resilient, (more on that later!) social, and working to be truly happy in the long term (more on that, too!). |
2012-06-25T17:57:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/25/folk-inspiration/#comment-14257 |
| Won't disagree with you, but I will now offer this earlier post of mine on Marx as a bookend to this piece. Marx did have a tendency to be half-right about nearly everything, which is still quite remarkable for someone predicting the future centuries on. Leaving aside details like central planning (and you'll find I'm the most vocal critic of all forms of Big - Big Government, Big Business, Big Ideas, etc.) what is remarkable to me is an understanding of what people really want in the long run. It isn't really stuff, at least not once the basics of life are taken care of - at least not for most people. And there is a role for some central planning, assuming it works by and for the marketplace. Once again, it comes down to the long and short run of things - and nations like Brazil that have charted their own rise in the world seem to need some degree of organization, at the very least. It's worth a lot of thinking. We are going to enter a new economy before we end this Depression, and it will not be like the last one. Can we define it more than it defines us? What do we really want or need as a people? What basic values and aspirations go into this social thing called an "economy"? A free people organized democratically have to work it out for themselves, somehow. I'm sure that this starts by talking about it and keeping our minds very open, at least through an initial "brainstorming". | 2012-06-23T16:15:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14241 |
| I calculated $7.8T went outside the US in the last 20 years, summing up our balance of trade deficit. No nation can keep that up forever. It had to come down eventually, and we have to either make more stuff or consume less at some point. Nothing else seems to matter. All the debt will have to be forgiven at some point, collapse or not. |
2012-06-23T16:00:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/22/downgrade-with-a-yawn/#comment-14240 |
| OK, I'll admit that the demonizing has been important, but only because you admitted that Leninism isn't really Marxism. :-) It's a mixed-up history that I glossed over a bit too quickly - I really didn't want this to get too long (which it did anyway). But yes, Marx's insights were largely academic, very useful - and adopted far more widely than most people would ever understand. I find that fascinating, especially as I consider how more socialist nations appear to be doing quite well lately. The rise of Brasil, for example, is not a capitalist story, but one of a social concept of markets working in a way that seems global from the outset. The demonization of Marx is largely propaganda, yes. But it didn't stop Marxism all the same. Fascinating, iddn't it? We could talk about this for hours, I'm sure! ;_) |
2012-06-22T22:39:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14236 |
| I'm starting to wonder, too. Would like other opinions on this. | 2012-06-22T22:35:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/22/downgrade-with-a-yawn/#comment-14235 |
| With you on this. The corruption is obvious. | 2012-06-22T22:34:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/22/downgrade-with-a-yawn/#comment-14234 |
| To me, it comes down to how labor is organized. We all know that unions are on the decline, and I don't see that changing given the change in how work is being done (ie, the Gig Economy). I agree (and think Marx would, too!) that an authoritarian concept of sharing is not the ultimate. But the concept of a largely "classless society" is a pretty strong value here in the Midwest, even if it's not a reality. Much of this is a social contract which in traditional St Paul works out pretty well on a voluntary basis. China is a very strange example in so many ways, and I would like to think about it more. What on earth is their economy right now? |
2012-06-21T19:33:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14228 |
| Exactly. I think if we look at what we have achieved we can use American ideals and achievements and put them into a Marxist framework very easily - much more easily than they can make the narrative work for themselves in China, frankly. | 2012-06-21T16:13:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14226 |
| Marx lived a long time ago, yes, but he did see a lot of things happening in the future - things that are really only now coming to fruition. He did see the age of kings give way to capitalism and that eventually to something like the globalism we enjoy today. I think that, along with the way he viewed history (now accepted) as very valuable. Perhaps it's just another way that things are completely upside-down in today's world, but I do think there is a lesson here. |
2012-06-21T16:12:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14225 |
| Yes. We can learn a lot from many different places! An open mind takes in everything at face value, and Marx seems to have gotten a pretty bum take in history, IMHO. | 2012-06-20T14:40:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14219 |
| You and I are of a like mind. I was going somewhere else (next post!) but yes, a whole lotta stuff becomes a bit obvious when you take a step back and look at how mind-boggling history can be. We sure got lucky with FDR. Today, a cripple like him would be lucky to win as dog catcher. |
2012-06-20T01:20:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/18/how-to-not-stop-a-bank-run/#comment-14213 |
| Thank you. I really can't see any other way to handle this than an independent institution with a ton of experience, resources, and freedom from political concerns. Oh, and a very narrow charter where they only do this and nothing else. It just works so damned well! | 2012-06-18T18:21:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/18/how-to-not-stop-a-bank-run/#comment-14210 |
| It does seem like the cost of the mess is far higher than we can add up right now. There's a lot under the rug. | 2012-06-18T18:20:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/18/how-to-not-stop-a-bank-run/#comment-14209 |
| Agree completely on Bretton-Woods II - in fact, I'm deeply disappointed it hasn't happened yet (I predicted there would be one in 2009). A fixed exchange rate is interesting, I never thought of it. I hope that some kind of "Reset" is in the cards, especially as part of BWII, but I am sure there is a lot more that should be on the agenda as we think about it. | 2012-06-16T19:04:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14202 |
| Yes, $6T so far. I think another $3T is probably in the works, which is $1T for the US and EU and $0.5T for UK and Japan each. But that's rough. It all depends on how well it gets out into the world, and QE1 and QE2 went nowhere. So it's hard to count. | 2012-06-15T19:39:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14197 |
| I almost posted an open letter to the people of Europe reminding them that political union was always the plan. It followed on the reunification of Germany and more than a little fear of that new large nation. Putting it into the context of a unified Europe was definitely the plan, although what they could agree on first was a currency. Basically, they've been living together without being married. At some point there's strain and the least they have to do is open a joint checking account, if not really square it up. :-) |
2012-06-15T19:37:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14196 |
| Perhaps it could be set as something like an auction. If they announce a $1T program (because we do everything in trillions now) there could be a process for taking offers of loans/packages with a dollar amount and a definitive time frame. If they get offers of, say, $2T total we know it'll pay out at 50%. Maybe once it hits $2T some will pull out and it goes back to $1.7T making the payout (doing math ...) 59 cents on the dollar. | 2012-06-15T17:50:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14193 |
| That's the plan - do it in an orderly way. Think of it as a New Deal. | 2012-06-15T17:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14192 |
| Far from it, brother. None of this makes any sense. | 2012-06-14T14:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/13/bad-news-is-good-news/#comment-14186 |
| Thanks! I do want a radio invite, so I have to work on the pithy stuff. :-) | 2012-06-14T14:22:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/13/bad-news-is-good-news/#comment-14185 |
| They are totally detached from reality. They do not serve any useful purpose. My hunch is that if everything did fail we would hardly notice. That tells me that "Too Big to Fail" is long past. Ready for the Revolution? |
2012-06-13T16:24:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/13/bad-news-is-good-news/#comment-14182 |
| That did sneak up on us, didn't it? Hey, the global derivatives market is now $700T, which is also $0.7Q (for Quadrillion). So it could be worse - and might be one day soon. | 2012-06-13T16:22:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/13/bad-news-is-good-news/#comment-14181 |
| They will be replaced someday if this is all they have. | 2012-06-11T19:51:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/11/what-is-google/#comment-14165 |
| So far, that's true. I hope we can come up with a more directed one that makes more sense. | 2012-06-11T19:50:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/11/what-is-google/#comment-14164 |
| Yes, there has to be. Many people would like to know what's going on in their town and what businesses they like are up to. The model used now is a broadcast one. | 2012-06-11T19:50:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/11/what-is-google/#comment-14163 |
| No, I think your hatred is pretty universal. The whole thing is crude at best, and that's my point. I think they could find a way to provide services businesses actually want and have a greatly enhanced user experience at the same time, but they aren't trying. It's sad. | 2012-06-11T19:49:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/11/what-is-google/#comment-14162 |
| Just sang the Expo School Song at the graduation: Piece by Peace we build our community Word by word we sing our song Message by message we call the world to build Love, Joy, Peace, and Harmony! |
2012-06-08T17:22:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/08/the-big-parade/#comment-14153 |
| I agree, they do a good job. I'm happy with them. Unfortunately we're going with a charter school for Junior High, which is where I think the SPPS doesn't do as good of a job, but we do have many options here in St Paul and that is what counts. | 2012-06-08T17:21:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/08/the-big-parade/#comment-14152 |
| I cannot take all the credit for my kids! :-) | 2012-06-08T17:19:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/08/the-big-parade/#comment-14151 |
| You should stick with Schnitzel and sauerkraut, it is good for you! :-) | 2012-06-07T00:17:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14146 |
| "The five colors blind, The five tones deafen, The five tastes cloy." One version (Bynner?) of Tao Te Ching 12 :-) | 2012-06-06T21:20:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14144 |
| So it doesn't bother you to not really know what "fish sauce" is? :-) Also, the other thing about it is that you really can't taste it by itself, which violates a big rule of everything else I cook with. Lemon zest is definitely the way to go if you want a rich, complex lemon taste (such as in chicken or some baked goods), but for a quick hit I really like the juice. Just a teaspoon or two as an instant hit of sunshine! |
2012-06-06T21:16:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14143 |
| Potassium is good for you, generally, but I think it might be a bit much for some people. Have to watch that. | 2012-06-06T21:13:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14142 |
| I might just do that. :-) It is hard to pull my attention away from the great train wreck that is our international finance system, but it has to be done to maintain sanity. | 2012-06-06T16:06:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14138 |
| I don't do a lot of dairy - it's a thing with me. But I know a lot of people use various forms of cream and cheese to thicken sauces. Dunno. I'm more Asian in my approach, I guess. | 2012-06-06T16:05:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14137 |
| I think that's a secret many people don't admit easily. :-) How do I trust the stuff with all the fun characters on it? Eh, I dunno. You only live once, eh? :-) | 2012-06-06T16:04:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14136 |
| Yes, at the least. It's insane. | 2012-06-04T20:59:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/04/small-ripple-big-waves/#comment-14128 |
| All I can think of is new regulation based on better disclosure. If a bank is selling a new product, they should have to provide some kind of simple risk assessment that they can stand behind. If it turns out to be far riskier than advertised, they should be forced to pay in a fairly automatic way (ie, let's not wait for the courts to work it out). That's about all I can think of at this time. It's not much, but regulations written around existing securities will only be worked around. Something more comprehensive has to be done, and disclosure still feels like the best thing for both the markets and the public. Anyone else have a better idea? |
2012-06-04T16:05:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/04/small-ripple-big-waves/#comment-14126 |
| This can't end well, no. What to do about it is another problem. We might have to just wait for it to die. | 2012-06-04T16:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/04/small-ripple-big-waves/#comment-14125 |
| I really have no idea what Europe will do. I'm still shocked that Ireland voted for austerity. | 2012-06-02T16:54:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/01/election-economics-pre-summer/#comment-14117 |
| Unless he sinks the buzzer-beater - I'm starting to agree with you. | 2012-06-01T18:35:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/01/election-economics-pre-summer/#comment-14109 |
| Yes, people have their own stuff. Keep in mind that low enthusiasm means low turnout, and that usually favors Republicans across the board. Obama won in 2008 on record turnout that's not likely to repeat. | 2012-06-01T15:24:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/01/election-economics-pre-summer/#comment-14106 |
| Yes, and people are wiling to work for them! | 2012-05-30T20:58:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/30/reluctant-spring/#comment-14100 |
| Now that hurts - because it's true! :-) Seriously, I had that same conversation several times, and I can't mention names because I was sworn to secrecy. But it seems like everyone I know has a project! As for the daytraders, it's almost surprising to find there are still some of them out there. This is a secular bear market, fer gooshsakes. This should flush out everyone that's left, more or less. Very ugly stuff. You and Jim both - what about Buffet's advice to invest in what you can see? Dez brought that up last time we talked about Basefook, and I think it's very wise. Any ideas on that 'round St Paul? | 2012-05-30T16:34:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/30/reluctant-spring/#comment-14098 |
| I think a lot of people didn't really consider the market one way or the other, but now have it firmly in their head that the whole thing is bad. Agree with your sage advice, but I fear that will be lost in the bad news that will come out of this for a while. | 2012-05-30T16:30:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/30/reluctant-spring/#comment-14097 |
| It does seem to me like the final straw, and we're not done seeing this play out with all the lawsuits. It will be in the nooze for a long time. | 2012-05-30T16:29:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/30/reluctant-spring/#comment-14096 |
| And that's what the Eurovision Song Contest is all about! Sweden just won with ... um, I guess I don't follow it. But they had the same idea, turned into something more like "European Idol" long before we ever thought of it. You're right about our popular culture, at its best. I've written before on the decline of Top 40, when everyone used to listen to the same stuff more or less. We don't anymore. It is a problem, silly as it seems. Economics, politics, and culture are really all reflections of the same basic notions and impulses in the end, which is why I write about all of them at once. The lack of a meaningful politics in this nation comes from a lack of cultural and economic cohesion, I think. It's very natural. But we can do our best to pull it back together. |
2012-05-28T20:15:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/28/union/#comment-14087 |
| Thanks! I was going to write the whole piece on the theme of a relationship - it seems that they are about to open a joint checking account without being engaged. But ... I demurred. :-) | 2012-05-28T20:11:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/28/union/#comment-14086 |
| It was a half-step and now they will have little choice but to take the whole leap together. I can't see it going any other way, really. The Euro is too valuable to them, and to the world. | 2012-05-28T17:51:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/28/union/#comment-14083 |
| Some of you have asked for the whole story, put together in one place. Here it is. Remember, this is all made up and not every use of a Hero's Journey has to have ALL of the pieces of the story: The Story of Danish Treat I learned how to make pastries from my Grandmother, who came from Denmark during the war. Though we spent many long hours in the kitchen rolling and baking, I never pictured myself doing this for a living. It wasn’t until my dear Nana passed on that I started to dream of her begging me to take her loving art to the world. Many long hours in my kitchen at home making samples and perfecting recipes gave me confidence in my dream. It wasn’t until I met Mary that I knew we could do it. She had the business sense that complimented my baking. Her belief in me, however, was the most important thing as we developed our pastries and business plan together. Getting the resources to make it happen wasn’t easy, however. It wasn’t until we showed up at the bank with a plate of Midnight Black Currant that we were able to convince them. It’s always been our secret recipe that makes an ordinary day into something special! We opened June 17th 2009. That day was exciting, but I stayed in the kitchen the whole time sweating over every batch. Mary stayed at the register for me the whole time. Everything had to be perfect and I wasn’t going to let it go. After a while we had customers who couldn’t start their day without a cup of our French Roast coffee and the pastry of their choice. Their compliments and simply being there every morning convinced me that I had achieved what I set out to. The bakery became my life, and I have enjoyed every minute of it since. Mary eventually left to pursue her own dream of managing venture capital projects. It was hard at first, but getting out of the kitchen to know our customers better from the register has been just great. Julio joined me in February 2010 directly out of pastry chef school and has been just fabulous. Since that time I’ve been proud to give back to the community and mentor other young entrepreneurs. I also travel around the world looking for new ideas, like our Tuscan Peach. It’s all possible because of you, our customers. Thank you so much! 368 words, so it might need some editing, but it's a good start on an "About Us" page. :-) |
2012-05-26T23:22:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-14079 |
| I could, yes. I should tell the story of Alexander Ramsey and his little brother, Justus. :-) Thanks! | 2012-05-25T17:33:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/25/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery/#comment-14077 |
| Thanks! | 2012-05-25T17:33:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/25/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery/#comment-14076 |
| I need to update my piece on "Marketism", because I believe we have never been a truly "Capitalist" nation: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/13/marketism/ (4 years old, and has problems) But we've always chosen open access to the market over pure rule by capital/money whenever they came into conflict. It goes way back in our history, from the National Road in 1780s, free schools in 1800s, the National Bank Crisis in 1820s, Homestead act, Sherman anti-trust act, and so on. This is what built our nation - NOT capitalism! |
2012-05-24T03:05:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14072 |
| I was trying pretty hard on that one, so I'm not sure it counts. :-) | 2012-05-24T03:01:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14071 |
| Where it stands right now is that it appears a new assessment of income potential at Basefook (my psuedo-cockney name for it) was issued a few days before the IPO at MS. It was clearly not made public, which is a problem for both MS and Basefook, since withholding material information ahead of an IPO is illegal. However, it also appears that the information was indeed shared with some potential investors, which is Insider Trading - much more serious. It's been further alleged that big names pulling big orders at the last minute had a lot to do with why NASDAQ got behind right at the open of the IPO, which is just outrageous. So there is a TON to sort out here, but it is definitely true that a generation is convinced that this is nothing but one big con. This appears to go to the nature of K-Waves, once again, and how we define these things called "Generations" that are clearly only a half-generation or so in length. I agree that this is a serious problem for the long haul. Let's go to the next level. My generation went to a 401k based on the theory that Social Security was a scam. So what comes next? All you need to do is believe in Secular Market Theory to ask that question, let alone utter, complete dismay in the whole system. The implications of this are vast and long lasting. They have just eaten the Golden Goose and appear to have no idea how serious it is. This is where a "socialist" like FDR has to come along and save Capitalism from itself - again. | 2012-05-23T21:20:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14066 |
| I'll give you this one. :-) Seriously, taking these guys on would be a nasty, dirty fight that won't help us out of the Depression one damned bit in the short run. But I'm starting to think that we're not getting out of this Depression at all until we do it. |
2012-05-23T21:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14065 |
| In the long run, the market will sort it out, I'm sure. In the long run, we're all dead. Regulation is useful for smoothing things out in the short run. While it does look like a lot of rules were at least bent, if not broken, I think it's a losing battle to regulate companies this far out of control. I agree that if the lawyers pick their bones it could change things, but JPM and GS are so big it's hard to imagine that happening. But you do have a common sense good way to look at it, as usual. Thanks! |
2012-05-23T21:11:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14064 |
| I'll agree with you, but tighter political union has to come first for the meat of this. Are they ready for that? The reason I stress inflation is that the ECB could do that on their own. |
2012-05-23T20:43:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14060 |
| Interesting. I know a lot of people agree with you, including my hero John Mauldin (there, I confessed my source for a lot of stuff!). But ... outside of organizing Bretton-Woods II (or is it III?) I'm not sure what else we can do. Bernanke does seem to be willing to give them any resources he can, and already has given them upwards of $2T on a tab. | 2012-05-23T20:41:04-00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14059 |
| I'm starting to think of this like trust-busting from a century ago. Your analogy of a forest is a very good one, and it was proven to be the way to go when Teddy Roosevelt took it on. These guys do not generate capital, they incinerate it. They are worse than useless. This IPO really is the last straw - and it's so public that there is almost certain to be action. Let's press the issue now, I say. Something does have to be done. |
2012-05-23T17:04:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14056 |
| Thanks for that, one Hell of a story. No less than Warren Buffet advises that people should invest in what they can see, so locally based microloans do seem to be a great way to go. They also go to very small businesses, the ones that have the most potential for expansion. So it's a big win-win all around. Good luck, I think you are seriously on to something! |
2012-05-23T17:02:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14055 |
| Thanks. This is seriously bad stuff and it has to stop. | 2012-05-23T17:00:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14054 |
| Bold. I like that. :-) Here's a question for you, though: So we have a massive stimulus of some kind. But if it's funded by debt, aren't we just creating more trouble? Granted, nations with current account surpluses have more coming in than most, but taxing that away from private citizens will be tricky at best. It seems to me that debt forgiveness is definitely going to be a big part of the equation no matter what, and the easiest way to do that is with inflation. Or - is there another way through this? |
2012-05-22T20:39:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14044 |
| Very likely! Imagine being in the room with the big hitters from banks and Finance Ministers from big bureaucratic governments trying to negotiate to save your nation - can't be a lot of fun. | 2012-05-22T13:58:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14042 |
| Anna, it's not a smear - this guy is a dedicated socialist at the very least and has a distinct communist background. But yes, he sure does not talk like one. He's committed to the Euro and is talking about genuine economic growth - especially in the private sector. What makes him a socialist is that he clearly thinks that more of the money loaned will have to be forgiven and he has little time for banks. But - he does understand the need for a stable banking system. As a package, he seems to be more or less in line with our US left, which is generally to the right of the left in Europe. So it's very confusing at best. It's probably never good to judge the politics of another nation from afar! :-) |
2012-05-21T18:07:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14040 |
| That's about where I am at with him. When you look at the deal already done, it really doesn't make a lot of sense - it's clearly designed more to make Germans go away than govern a nation. This guy does seem committed to important things like democracy and equality, and my hunch is that he can't possibly fail as badly as the previous generation, so why the Hell not? | 2012-05-21T17:55:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14038 |
| Thanks! I have great kids, they have always been what I live for. I think the care shows in what great people they have become, if I can take a little credit. | 2012-05-19T18:00:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14024 |
| Thanks. I have kept my kids out of this because they have their own lives. But letting Thryn tell her own story is different. You should know this is just how we talk at dinner, too. | 2012-05-19T17:59:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14023 |
| Real social change comes in generations. But it's usually driven by young people who want to live in a different world than their parents - and they are not very patient. It all seems frustrating, but it works out in the long run. I know the world is safe when I see Thryn and her friends - they are going to do very well. They may even be another "Greatest Generation". Lord help them all that they don't have to prove it in a World War. | 2012-05-18T17:56:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14010 |
| Yes, it's best not to get too into what Germany can do for Europe - but they can do a lot more than they are. I found this article on what Greece can do for itself really interesting http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18101399 Rather right wingish in some ways, but I'm filing this one away in my li'l brain awaiting more information to either confirm or refute it. | 2012-05-18T17:54:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-14009 |
| You'll be hearing more from her. Not necessarily here, either. :-) | 2012-05-18T16:01:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14007 |
| Thanks. I never want to exploit my kids, as they are my entire life. But I will let them speak for themselves when it's reasonable. She's nearly 16 and, as you can see, can do that well. | 2012-05-18T16:00:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14006 |
| Most welcome. The world needs to know Thryn. :-) | 2012-05-18T15:59:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14005 |
| Thanks, I hope people with some money are reading, too! :-) I'm trying to highlight investments that would work right now, even if the economy doesn't pick up soon - transformational techs. I understand some of the thirst for internet app based companies, but if they would only look beyond the immediate sector there are many opportunities, even in a down economy. I agree on Germany, although their manufacturing base is still important. It should, however, be used as a springboard for a center of technology. I think their natural place to develop is where they are moving now and have been for hundreds of years - to the East. But Southern Europe would be interesting as well. There are also opportunities where they fit in very well with Latin America as the high-tech partner meeting resources and cheaper labor - plus, Latin America is already fairly well developed in places. I think you already see this in Brazil, so it's not a stretch. But yes, Germany needs a sandbox to play in. They have a lot to give the world if it's done well. Damnitall, we do need some kind of Bretton-Woods agreement on currencies, pricing, and maybe a solid Metternich "sphere of influence" agreement as well. What does the G20 actually talk about? Who would lead some kind of global re-alignment? |
2012-05-17T17:54:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13993 |
| I don't think this can continue, either. We are awash with "stimulus" dollars that are sitting on deposit with the Fed and not getting out into the economy. That's what the last piece was really all about - there are good ideas out there for incredible transformations but they are not getting the resources they need. Meanwhile, the people who making money by playing with money are taking on more and more risk in forms that no one really understands. We need a "New Deal". The old hand has played itself out, and it's time to reshuffle the cards. I don't think there are too many people out there who wouldn't be happy playing the hand they get, but they don't have a chip and a chair to play the game. That's just fundamentally un-American. |
2012-05-17T14:13:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13991 |
| There simply is not a mechanism to act in a timely manner in Europe. This could have all been solved years ago - which is how we handled it. Now we're looking at a general failure of Greek Banks: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18099336 That cannot be allowed to happen. |
2012-05-17T05:31:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13989 |
| I hadn't really thought about what we might have to do in this. I suppose we do have to be a part of it at some point. I know the Fed has funneled some money their direction, but then again the Fed are the only ones actually doing something about this problem. It's hard to imagine Europe coming apart because it feels like armageddon. There must be some role for us in this. Bretton-Woods? Another Marshall Plan? The last time we had this debt as a share of GDP (and more!) was at the end of WWII, and we grew our way out of that rather than pay it off. Thinking about this globally is a real headache no matter what. You're right, there has to be some role for us - and the developing world. Getting that together is almost as hard to image as the post-apocalyptic landscape that remains if the Euro fails. |
2012-05-16T23:36:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13987 |
| The differences between the US and Europe are pretty stark, and they fascinate me. I don't entirely know what it means over the long haul, but our complacency is chilling IMHO. I think it's obvious that some level of forgiveness is going to have to be part of the package all around the world, but we do it all as a backroom deal - and rarely cut the little people in on it. I think I like the European system much better - despite some obvious faults. Then again, I think we're more likely to get through this at least in the short term. | 2012-05-16T23:32:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13986 |
| They do have an open democratic process that makes ours look pretty closed, yes. I hope it delivers them something good in the end because I can only see civil unrest growing at this point. As long as it makes something good happen, I'm OK with that. | 2012-05-16T18:04:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13981 |
| Yes, they are having he debate! That is what I think counts. However, they are also dragging their feet and really pulling down the rest of the developed world. This beast called "Europe" is pretty disorganized. You make excellent points. | 2012-05-16T18:03:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13980 |
| She is a very interesting person, and very hard to get to know well. The more I think about it there were quite a few colorful conservatives in Europe, especially Berlusconi of Italy and Sarkozy of France. I would describe Merkel as more "technocratic" largely because of who she has appointed to key positions - and her own quiet, slightly mysterious demeanor. But looking over photos to find a good one showed me that she is actually very expressive. I think I like her, even if I disagree with her hard line on austerity. | 2012-05-16T18:02:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13979 |
| I'm shootin' fer Oprah! :-) I detect a bit of cynicism here, which is justified. It's easy to pontificate, but it never looks all that great - especially on this topic. But the meat of this one came to me when reading "The Coming Jobs War" - we need to get stuff done. And there's a lot of good stuff out there that can be done! Why isn't it happening? If Babs or the Maha-Rushie helps advance that, well, I'm down with them. :-) |
2012-05-15T01:58:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13969 |
| The good news about the UK is they got through it and seem to be relatively happy today. Not quite the Empire, but hey ... that should never have been all theirs in the first place, IMHO. But yes, we always seem to find money when we need it. Here we are in a national emergency and ... where's the dough? Oh, yes, Facebook gets theirs, as do the Vikings. What? It doesn't make any sense. I still believe in the free market, but it is falling down pretty badly here. I do think this is exactly what the Kondratieff "Winter" is all about. Sooner or later, it has to get better - or else we just fail and consume a lot less energy for that reason. |
2012-05-14T21:13:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13967 |
| You ask many of the right questions. There is a role for government here because any major changes to the system need to be at least coordinated. In the case of the technologies described there are a lot of permitting and related functions that must be done with our eyes wide open and a real drive to do it right the first time - not just go willy-nilly into it as we did with ethanol, for example. However, there is also potential for a lot of money to be made in the process. Motor vehicle fuels will continue to be expensive no matter what is done, so there is room for new processes that are not as cheap as simply pulling oil out of the ground and refining it. And there is a major national security interest outlined. The decline of our manufacturing base is very much the real problem at the heart of this, although it is also a symptom of the bigger problem of what we value as a people. It does all tie together. BUT - if there is any truth to the statements that we will live in a world that is increasingly driven by new technologies, we are falling down badly in areas that are difficult to implement. That is a serious problem because implementation is at the heart of technology. All I have done here is highlight a critical need that can indeed be matched by technologies with great potential. And yet they are not moving forward very quickly at all (with the possible exception of turbine electric hybrids). There is a lot to think about here. |
2012-05-14T18:08:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13964 |
| Thanks. In the end, these things called "politics" and "economics" are really all about values - what we value and what values we carry inside ourselves. If one or both of them are broken (as I think they are now!) we have to look to the root of the problem. It's not a lack of new ideas that's holding us back, that's for sure. | 2012-05-14T16:07:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13962 |
| Thanks. We're on the same page. It just can't be all about "technology" because we have the tech to transform our world - but we don't implement it. And yes, it's very true that some "socialist" nations are kicking our butt. If you think about what a genuine high-tech society looks like, the ability to get resources of all kinds in the hands of entrepreneurs is what will mark the pace of their growth. There is definitely a role for the private sector in this, as there is a role for competition. We are so far from that conversation it hurts to even think about it. |
2012-05-14T16:05:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13961 |
| I won't say I can get this all nailed down in 800 words, but I wanted to at least get at the heart of it. By all means, add to the argument! Your observation that many of these small businesses are under-capitalized is very important. We should try to keep an eye on that. Capital is still very hard to get for small entrepreneurs trying to do something unusual. |
2012-05-14T16:02:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13960 |
| Thanks! >blush!< | 2012-05-14T16:01:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13959 |
| Perhaps I focused on the private capital markets too much, but that is what we have come to rely on for innovation. They lie at the heart of our system, so when the system is broken we have to ask what they are doing. If the answer is that they can't be fixed, then we should do what we can to regulate them out of existence. If they can be fixed, well, by all means let's do it. There is a lot more to this, yes, but I had to get the conversation going. And I needed some very clear examples before I went into it too far. |
2012-05-14T16:00:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13958 |
| Unless battery tech changes dramatically, the weight needed to carry enough energy for any decent range is massive. Chemical fuels being burned is still the best source for a range on the order of 300 miles, which is what we're used to. Good question, tho. I'm highlighting techs that are proven and can be dropped-in to our existing world without a ton of fuss, but there are always out-of-the-box ones that you never know how they'll play! | 2012-05-11T16:20:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/11/energy-turbine-electric-hybrids/#comment-13925 |
| Yes, being conservative. I think we can reasonably expect that if this was all fully implemented the 140B gallons of gasoline would be down below 50B, or a savings around 2/3. There are still a lot of gas-guzzlers on the road, for sure! Ford is working on cars like this, and UK Ford sponsored the Whisper Eco-Logic (it's a Ford platform!). Don't know about the other two, but they are aware of it. I think Ford will be the first ones to the market, which could be before 2016. |
2012-05-11T16:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/11/energy-turbine-electric-hybrids/#comment-13924 |
| Thanks. This still may be a bridge, but it's nearly drop-in today and the potential savings are pretty large. They can burn a wide variety of fuels, but gasoline is one of them (as is diesel!). Yes, this is best for long-distance fleets and so on, but I didn't get into trucking - or trains, which already use something like this and have for about 50 years. | 2012-05-11T16:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/11/energy-turbine-electric-hybrids/#comment-13923 |
| So many questions! :-) Yes, buses are terrible, but passenger*miles per gallon makes it work out. Still not great at best. I have been told that streetcars/LRT are about 4X as efficient, but the calculation is long and I have not verified what went into it. 36-40% is an upper limit for turning force from heat in all practical senses. Your basic powerplant gets around that as well, so doing it on a small scale is quite impressive. It's a measure of the work out as energy divided by the heat in as energy, so it's a very real number. In all these systems a man named Carnot figured out these limits long ago, and it's all based on the temperature difference they operate under. The formula for the max possible efficiency is (Temp(hot) - Temp(cold)) / Temp(hot) , where the temp is all in absolute terms (ie, right now we are at about 293K, or 20C). |
2012-05-11T16:14:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/11/energy-turbine-electric-hybrids/#comment-13922 |
| Given that there is one source of input and it is diminishing rapidly (ie the cost of production is increasing) I really don't expect much from the market. Perhaps I should, and a greater than 30% up-down for almost no reason is pretty awful. Speculators know they have something that will go away in the future, and they are very hard to keep out of the market. Agree on "renewables", but that is the term most people know. I couldn't find a better one. As we discuss this some more I am open to any better term everyone comes up with. |
2012-05-11T15:17:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13917 |
| Yes on all counts. The newest regulations in place on fracking seem to take care of at least the worst excesses, some of which were taking place even before 2005. They really gave the industry a bad name. It is important to note, however, that fracking is still used for only a small fraction of natural gas production - there are many sources. | 2012-05-11T15:14:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13916 |
| Alan, you're right on here - I'm trying to start from zero with most people so bear with me on the details you already know! One astonishing thing, however, is that there has been a lot of research into anaerobic digestion and effluents of up to 70% methane have been achieved over a long run time. I don't really understand how they got it that high, to be honest, but it has to be close to the max we'll ever get. But it's still impressive and makes this tech much more appealing. The real key is always to leave the carbon in the ground as much as we possibly can. Methane is a bad actor in the air, for sure, for many reasons beyond even greenhouse gases. We do not want it getting out, and strict standards around billions of reactors are going to be essential. But the tech is there and has great potential - given the other things that are developing as well! |
2012-05-11T15:11:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13915 |
| OK, back up a bit. Methane, released into the atmosphere, is a big absorber of sunlight and a greenhouse gas. When burned it makes carbon dioxide (CO2). If the methane is produced by plants that have absorbed CO2 in sunlight there is a complete "carbon cycle" that is very different from carbon that is pulled out of the ground and removed from the atmosphere. Would a lot of methane digesters put raw methane into the atmosphere? It's worth thinking about, but I sincerely doubt it. Everywhere things rot methane is being released now. The process described captures it to put it to work in a human based carbon cycle. If anything, I would think that a system like this would result in less methane being released than what we have now. |
2012-05-10T20:49:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13905 |
| A lot of good points! Yes, biogas is far, far from new. It also does have its problems, especially in an urban area - which is why I left the municipal solid waste alone for now (although coupling it with an existing sewage treatment plant as a finishing step gets around many of the problems with smell, residuals, etc). Should we jump on this bandwagon and install digesters everywhere willy-nilly? Absolutely not! The ethanol example shows us a lot of what can go wrong, for sure, and I hope we learned from that. Note that in the diagram I included a "Water Recovery" step, which is absolutely essential to making this work safely and environmentally. What I am attempting to highlight, however, is that it is possible to make this stuff in scattered sites once we solve the transportation problem - which the previous post shows a tech that could do this. And the capacity is roughly what we need to be able to grow our own fuel, meaning that this could sustain the entire economy. That may be questionable, but stay tuned until tomorrow because conservation still plays a big role in our overall needs and capacity. But your caution is very well advised. The main difference between this and ethanol (or, for that matter, hydrogen) and their boosters working the halls of power far harder than the lab is that this has the support it needs to meet very tough standards in a practical, economical implementation. We should insist on very high standards. While there is a crisis today, moving to energy independence with a methane economy based on natural gas first is a critical step before we jump all over the potential for renewable energy from our farms. We have the technology and, more importantly, we have the time to implement it right. Whether or not we have the will to do it right is another dimension, and I agree with you that we have got to find it. |
2012-05-10T18:13:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13903 |
| You are very right. As Bill Clinton said, "There is nothing wrong with American that can't be fixed by what is right with America." I do believe that. It's a matter of getting our priorities and values right. And I am doing my part to get the message out, but I appreciate all the help I can get! |
2012-05-09T21:51:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13900 |
| Thank you. I have been wondering about this stuff since High School. | 2012-05-09T21:49:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13899 |
| We can, and do, feed a lot of the world. We currently have a lot of land raising corn for ethanol, so we would only have to change that over to a native grass (switchgrass grows well up here!) to make material for digesters. And let's not forget America's #1 crop - grass on people's lawns! :-) | 2012-05-09T21:49:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13898 |
| I am very sorry about that! I have tried to get to the bottom of it, but it's still a problem. | 2012-05-09T21:47:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13897 |
| It's very far along, and being implemented all around the world. I didn't dwell on municipal waste (garbage) as much because something tells me that this being so centrally located it might make more sense to do this along with municipal sewage as a source of natural gas for heat. But the principle is the same. Landfills are NOT optimized to make methane by any stretch, but they do. And it's being tapped. That same garbage can be sorted and the conditions optimized to make a LOT of methane if we want to! |
2012-05-09T21:47:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13896 |
| Sorry it took me so long to respond, but I was kidnapped. :-) Seriously, they will try to feed a lot of crap into the debate, as they have done so far, but I don't think it'll get any worse than that. Yes, the whole "Drill, baby drill!" nonsense came from Kochs, et al, but I really don't think they killed anyone. Or kidnapped them. :-) |
2012-05-08T00:10:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13884 |
| You guys keep getting ahead of me! :-) Yes, that is exactly what I am describing, although the fun parts are still coming. This is the crucial step that I think is often missing. I am highlighting 3 proven, available technologies this week and will sum them up next Monday - it's all planned out. :-) I do want to emphasize that I am also against ongoing subsidies, preferring instead to develop needed technologies that benefit the whole economy via "challenge grants" with very specific goals. I can't emphasize that enough. |
2012-05-07T18:36:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13882 |
| Sure. I'll start with this piece in the NY Times on the topic by Joe Nocera: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/opinion/nocera-how-to-frack-responsibly.html I have not found a good article yet on the new regulations, but my understanding is that some say they adequately cover the nasty chemicals used and others do not. I left it alone for now until I have a better answer. I do know that a lot of people believe that fracking can be done safely IF we regulate it appropriately - the horror stories come from a completely unregulated system. Also, it's worth noting that something like 15% of our natural gas currently comes from fracking, although that is expected to increase dramatically. What I'm most interested in is capturing the tremendous amount of gas that is still "flared" around the world, estimated by the World Bank to be enough to power Germany and Italy combined. http://rru.worldbank.org/documents/publicpolicyjournal/gerner.pdf Smaller units that could be brought directly to the well site that would condense methane into a transportable liquid would be the best way to capture that, and I think this remains the ultimate goal for this technology. |
2012-05-07T17:31:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13880 |
| Good ideas take time to implement, that I am sure of. But this is something that would change the world, yes. It's that important. And we should be all over it - if for no other reason than to make a big pile of money. I can't answer any of your questions other than to surmise that most people with a lot of dough have little imagination and almost no connection to real technology development. There are a lot of people these daze who think that "tech" means "internet", after all. Chemistry and engineering must go right past them. |
2012-05-07T16:25:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13878 |
| There's only so much time in the day, what with all the Khardashian-based "news" to report. :-) Seriously, I don't know why these things aren't talked about. I look at it as an opportunity for myself. Thanks! | 2012-05-07T16:22:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13877 |
| That is an excellent question! I have noticed that before and after the English Civil War there is a huge change in the language, as if Modern English really starts abruptly with the Stuart Restoration. But I have yet to find a single scholar to support this! My own theory is that the upheaval of that period completed a lot of the mixing that changed the language, including a tremendous flight of people for various reasons to the colonies in the Caribbean, North America, and so on. But this is not the accepted line. I honestly don't know. | 2012-05-06T23:45:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/08/the-great-vowel-shift/#comment-13868 |
| There does seem to be a ceiling around $110 right now, but that will not last forever. We can't say for sure what that comes from, but old wells with a little bit left to extract is as good of a guess as any. At some point, that oil will run out - but there will be still some oil that is economical to extract at $115, $120, and so on. How much? We can't say for sure. What can we do about speculators? I have yet to hear about anything big and obvious that will clearly work. But little things have been proposed that will affect it at the margins. Nearly everything is held up in Congress that can be (yes, it's politics as we know it!) so the Obama administration is doing what it can with existing authority. It does not seem like much at all. |
2012-05-04T18:55:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13863 |
| I agree with your conclusion, but while big oil and big speculators make a lot of money they only control so much of the market. The magic of the Koch Brothers is that they inherited (not invented themselves!) the tech and capacity to control much of the refining in the US. That is always the choke-point in the system. Crude oil itself is a different beast. There is a problem when it looks like speculators are making price fluctuations worse, and that does seem to be the case. They only can do that because all oil is priced in dollars and controlled by a small number of capital centers. Believe me, the developing world is as upset by this as anyone here - and that's why they are going to challenge the status quo by paying in their own currencies whenever they can. |
2012-05-04T18:20:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13861 |
| An excellent point, but I doubt it's that simple. We can't be sure it will bounce between $80-$110 because the price is being driven upward by increased demand. If we were to sell off enough to influence the market now we might be left with no reserves and a price that is still as high as it is now in a short time. But yes, a lot of "buffer" capacity would be the same as a properly functioning futures market. The latter is supposed to be the sophisticated answer to the problem, getting around the need for huge, idle stores of inventory with innovation. It does not seem to work as well as advertised. |
2012-05-04T18:16:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13860 |
| You are right about rail, etc, but there are alternatives that could be ready in a few years if we put our minds to it. More on that on Monday. :-) There isn't anything quite ready for prime-time right now, but it can be done. | 2012-05-04T18:13:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13859 |
| Thanks. I wanted to present the reason why the market is failing as clearly as possible. It is working quite well, but it is not a truly "free" or open market because there are no alternative sources of supply and there are barriers to entry in the form of set investments in refineries, etc. But it is doing very well all the same. Alternative energy can, and will, improve the market. |
2012-05-04T18:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13858 |
| It has degraded substantially, yes. But in actual Mexican communities it still has a lot of meaning. | 2012-05-02T21:31:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13846 |
| Let me tell you a story from when I first moved here from Florida. I was in line at Target and a woman came up behind me with a small child that was fussing and whining and being a toddler generally. They also happened to be black. I looked at them and said, "Ma'am, you only have one thing, I can see he wants out of here, you go on ahead." Her reply was, "Thank you very much - you must not be from around here!" I think I knew what she meant. I have never identified with white people in Minnesota, despite my pale exterior. I am simply not a member of the club. And I never, not for one moment, thought this place was particularly "Progressive". Clubby, yes. Oh, and the Indian was updated so he's not riding off into the sunset anymore: http://www.statesymbolsusa.org/Minnesota/stateSEAL.html |
2012-05-02T20:52:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13844 |
| Yes, if only we would. That's why I tell the story this way, I think it can get us to think about our relationship a bit differently - and hopefully move ahead to where we should be. | 2012-05-02T17:07:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13842 |
| I can't see it any other way. We're tied together in ways that we don't really understand nor appreciate as fully as we should. | 2012-05-02T17:06:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13841 |
| >blush!< Thanks! :-) | 2012-05-02T17:05:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13840 |
| With you on Walker, Smithson, but most of the time I'm more likely to say it's degrading to tribalism quickly. Neo-cons were the ultimate confusion for me, spending money like sailors on leave and making budget hawks out of many of my DFL friends. As for actual austerity, the way the Republicans abandoned Paul Ryan last year convinced me that none of them have a real stomach for it after all. The failure of the Super Committee (and subsequent lack of sequestration) only hardened that position. So I'll go with my occupier friend here :-) I say there is a difference between them, but it's not that big. We surely don't have any Angela Merkel (or even a David Cameron) on these shores! I would like to have that debate, BTW, and I hope that I expressed at least some sympathy for Romney in this post. This is what we should be talking about, IMHO. And bringing it up hit some seriously interesting comments that challenge me more than usual! |
2012-04-30T20:55:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13834 |
| Interesting way to look at it from both of you. What should we do? I've always tried to emphasize things like fair contests or paying for infrastructure we know we need as ways of goosing the economy, rather than "picking winners". I guess that makes me pretty queasy, too. Getting our house in order will be tricky at best, but I still think that stimulating growth now and growing our way out of as much as we can will make it all easier later, not the other way 'round - but ONLY if we are very strategic about how we do it, which is to say have an emphasis on restructuring the economy and not just creating jobs. Does that make sense? I've been pushing this for a long time and have yet to hear anyone pick up on it, so either no one gets it or they think it's a dumb distinction. |
2012-04-30T20:49:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13833 |
| I'm not sure what those terms mean to most people these days, however. For one, I'm not sure I know of any "liberals" in that mold that are less than about 50 years old now - those of us who grew up with Reagan have at least some of his free market philosophy deep in our bones. As for "conservatives", I doubt that Barry Goldwater would see the expansion of credit as anything other than a monster that is devouring us all. Not that there isn't an important "left" and "right", but I think the terms of what is important to each side are being worked out through internal struggles among both of them. |
2012-04-30T19:11:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13828 |
| As usual, I think you are exactly right. Creating jobs, even make-work jobs, ill get the money into the economy where it needs to be right now. Whatever the Fed can do by printing money or making rates low is not going to help anyone but those who created the credit bubble in the first place. The infrastructure gap is between 1 and 2 trillion bucks, according to anyone who has studied it. Granted, we're not a nation of people used to manual labor anymore, so it may not be easy to fix it overnight even with a lot of money. But many things have to change, so the sooner we get started the better. |
2012-04-30T17:11:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13826 |
| If that's what his campaign is all about, I think we'll have a great discussion on the future of the US - may the best man win. I look forward to that, I really do. These attempts at pithy one-liners are not serving anyone right now, including Romney himself. That last one really does have trouble written all over it, especially with the reputation as a flip-flopper. | 2012-04-30T17:08:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13825 |
| Excellent question, I should have said something about this a long time ago. The economy grows for many reasons - inflation makes the numbers look better, but we also gain population with time. There is also a matter of expectations, not a small thing when considering what makes up fear vs greed. If we expect to have more but don't we feel relatively poor. 3.3% is a regression line, not necessarily a real thing. But it's a rough measure of all the different things that go into the point where the economy is growing enough that employers have confidence. It could well be a bit lower right now, and the more I think about it falling expectations will give employers a sense of optimism at a much lower number. So you have a point - we may indeed be at a place in the cycles where something very close to zero might signal optimism. |
2012-04-28T18:27:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13816 |
| Yes, that is a lot of what I'm going on. I have been hearing stories like this, too. | 2012-04-27T21:25:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13813 |
| You are very correct - I hadn't thought of it that way, but if this does work out we should trumpet the results loudly. | 2012-04-27T21:24:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13812 |
| We'll see! Yours is the more prudent position, but I had to take a stand. | 2012-04-27T21:23:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13811 |
| The very short term trend is that jobs are leading, but it's only obvious over the last 4-5 months. That we have any growth at all is what I would like people to focus on. I could be wrong here, but the bet is a simple one - I see more jobs out there all the time and some general optimism at the retail level. The markets and the big decision makers at large companies are focused on the global economic system, especially Europe. My contention has always been that because this situation is not a typical "recession" things will happen differently. One thing we have to expect is that when things do change, leadership will come from the bottom-up. That does not mean that we are changing now, but I sense that we are. Hence the prediction. Could it all fall down? Yup. The increase in weekly initial claims is not a good thing, for sure. But - people are making opportunities for themselves any way they can, and small firms are scratching their way up. I do think that there is more positive momentum than the numbers reflect now, and that they will continue to turn upward. |
2012-04-27T16:59:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13807 |
| The debt accumulated will either be defaulted on or grown/inflated into. There are no other options. It cannot be handed over to the next generation because I am fairly certain they WILL simply default on it. My kids are very clear on that point. As to the "end of the empire", once again that is not necessarily the worst thing in the world. We will not be overrun by barbarians like Rome, but we could settle back like the UK. But yes, we cannot continue as we did in the 2000s for any length of time - the deficit spending was severe through that whole period. |
2012-04-26T00:12:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/25/k-waves/#comment-13796 |
| Yes, this needs to be taught. It is an excellent tool for getting people to think beyond their own little world and to understand that most of what we think is unique is, perhaps, unusual but not unheard of. In a Bear Market like we have now, topics like this are very common. "It's not your fault, we're in a secular Bear Market" seems to be the general thinking - but no one ever says, "I'm not brilliant, it's a secular Bull Market". Human nature, again, at work. But this has great implications for a retirement scheme based on the stock market, among other things. We do need to understand this and what it means for the course of our lives. |
2012-04-25T18:24:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/25/k-waves/#comment-13793 |
| Thanks >blush!< - but I do think that's what this is all about - something innate within us. It's been part of civilization since the start, after all. | 2012-04-25T18:21:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/25/k-waves/#comment-13792 |
| Yes on all counts - this is pretty obvious, IMHO, but you have to think in the longer term to understand it. But it does explain an awful lot! | 2012-04-25T18:21:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/25/k-waves/#comment-13791 |
| Yes on all points! There is always the chance that we have been poisoning ourselves for a long time. Lead compounds were added to wine for over 2000 years to make them sweeter and more complex, for example - a very bad idea. Generally, however, the things that research zeros in on to study are new synthetic chemicals that are new to our environment. Does everything cause cancer? Take that a bit further and look at allergies, really food sensitivities - I have a reaction to shellfish. Everyone is different and everyone has a different tolerance for everything. It's pretty rare that something reaches the level where it's so obviously toxic that it should be banned, but what is the appropriate threshold for doing that? How can people know what's in the food they eat or, more interestingly, the air they breathe and the water they drink? You raise a very good point, and it's one that I don't have an answer to. It is worth re-evaluating our regulatory framework constantly to make sure it makes sense. Certainly, the popular media does a terrible job of reporting most of these kinds of issues - but to be fair it's a hard thing to do well. It takes a lot of education and background to even get close. What I can say is that we've gone more and more to disclosure on food labels so that people can make up their own minds, and to me that's a good thing. I think the really obvious bad actors, like lead, have largely been dealt with and I've very glad that was banned from nearly everything (such as gasoline). Where we go from here is a good question! |
2012-04-23T16:08:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/23/science-technology-public-life/#comment-13774 |
| There is a huge difference between the scientific mind's skepticism and a blatant refusal to accept what is in front of us. That's why I wanted to start with a magnifying glass, an experiment a kid might do casually. Revelation of a "new world" not seen before causes many reactions in people, and recording what that new world is all about is necessarily colored by the person recording it. Understanding that bias is very important, and a bit of training can fit it into a bigger picture much more easily. But there are always those who, in this example, might want to deny that the bug even exists. Those of us who practice the questioning of science or the practical rendering of technology are at our best when we are as clear as possible what we are representing when we are called on to make our point. In public policy that is difficult and hard to render in "sound bites", but it can be done. Usually, however, it takes a lot of time and care. |
2012-04-23T15:46:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/23/science-technology-public-life/#comment-13772 |
| I love that joke too, but I never thought of "creative accounting". :-) I am a bit of a global warming skeptic, but that's the scientist in me. I've run enough samples through Infrared analysis to know that while carbon dioxide absorbs like crazy in that region, water does even more - and there's a lot more of it in the atmosphere! I do think there is a lot more to the story than what Al Gore will tell us, but it also is true that what we are doing is not a good thing no matter how we look at it. The alternative view - that this just happens, possibly because the sun winks on and off a tiny bit - may well be proven in the next 10 years as a major sunspot maximum since the 1950s has suddenly ended and there is evidence that the planet is already cooling a bit. How much? We'll see. Faith is another area - you're trying to push all my buttons at once! :-) What I will say is that what cannot be proven or disproven by science leaves a LOT of room for faith, and many scientists are indeed deeply spiritual. I honestly do not see a conflict between science and faith and I am always dismayed when debates rev up along those lines. |
2012-04-23T15:37:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/23/science-technology-public-life/#comment-13771 |
| You're right, this should have been a series. I guess it still could be! The advantage of an eBook is that I might be able to sell it, so perhaps I should go that direction. Excellent suggestion! Yes, I always go into the history. In this case it probably should have been left out to make an overly long post shorter. I broke the unity a bit. A series would have fixed that. Noted. |
2012-04-23T15:32:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/23/science-technology-public-life/#comment-13769 |
| OK, to the last point - the "next economy" is not necessarily what you or I might imagine, and economies transform gradually all the time. The job market in particular is always dynamic.However, the restructuring is especially stark in a recession / depression. Now, as to the last recession - if you assume that 300k per week initial claims is the "baseline" of a healthy economy (and it's close) then you can peel this away from the data shown above: 2001 "Recession": First above 300k/wk: November 2000 End above 300k/wk: Jan 2006 Total jobs lost net above 300k/wk: 20 million 2007 "Recession": First above 300k/wk: May 2006 End above 300k/wk: Nov 2013 (projected from data) Total jobs lost net above 300k/wk: 40 million Now, this is not to be taken as some kind of gospel truth, but it seems that the total "restructuring" part is about twice a fairly normal recession. The number is much larger than the net job loss, meaning that over the roughly 7.5 year period we don't lost ALL the jobs right away - some things keep moving on. But eventually it touches about 30% of all the jobs. If you look at this as approximate I think I would stand by it. Was that a longer answer than you expected? :-) |
2012-04-20T21:47:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13754 |
| A good point - reforms aimed at improving transparency are ALWAYS good for the economy, as far as I can tell. Yes, it's about $2T on deposit with the Fed, too. So I think you do have some excellent points, although the market is making its own adjustments. | 2012-04-20T21:35:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13753 |
| Yes, it is! :-) | 2012-04-20T18:59:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/18/the-conch-republic/#comment-13750 |
| An interesting point. I still think the overhead on each job is crushing and that the nature of work as we know it is changing (ie, "The Gig Economy"). We still need to adjust to those realities in policy and how we do things like taxation (that is, what does a W2 really mean anymore?). And we do still have a huge job deficit to make up - those 8-10 million un/under-employed. But we all know the Free Market(tm) does do its job eventually no matter what, so you do have a point. It's a question as to how "free" it is. |
2012-04-20T18:57:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13749 |
| Thanks. I don't know that enough people are watching this or even understand why there is a need for a serious restructuring. Remember, the official line among establishment figures (politicos, talking heads, etc) is that this is a "Great Recession" and not a more unusual even like a Depression. | 2012-04-20T18:54:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13748 |
| Anna, I think that's a two-parter. The first part is the much needed "reality check" that all of this data needs, and I would like to ask everyone if about 1/6 of their friends have a new job every year. I think that's about right, but my mileage may vary. The second part is one that I can't answer, which is that if this is all true how long does it take to restructure the whole economy. What I don't have here are how many of these positions are actually new - not just someone new filling the same slot. That figure has to be lower by definition. So I'll think about this some more and search for more data on employment dynamics. Incidentally, there are some reports on this stuff out there, but I didn't use them because it takes a year to collect the data and I honestly think we're in a completely different economy than we were a year ago (the point of this whole post, really). So I'm kind of winging it here trying to create a more real-time employment dynamics concept. |
2012-04-20T16:30:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13745 |
| That is an excellent idea! Perhaps there is a moral to this after all! | 2012-04-18T19:16:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/18/the-conch-republic/#comment-13734 |
| Me, too! (Thanks for commenting!) | 2012-04-18T16:53:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/18/the-conch-republic/#comment-13732 |
| I hope you can enjoy the day! :-) | 2012-04-18T16:52:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/18/the-conch-republic/#comment-13731 |
| This is supposed to scare you, but I want to leave it to the reader to decide how scared to be. I do think this is a serious problem, but there is enough sensationalism in the popular media. I'm trying to provide context as much as news that you might not read somewhere else. | 2012-04-17T02:21:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13725 |
| I largely disagree. The Fed Board of Governors certainly has very different friends than you and I do, for sure. Yet I do believe that they are at least sincere in their efforts to do what has to be done - regardless of the simple fact that they really don't have the charter or the tools to do it well. That does not mean that they are looking out for ordinary people per se, but for what they think is the right thing for ordinary people. In some ways, they are right - a functioning financial system employs millions and makes life as we know it possible. But it is damned unreasonable to have them do everything with the secrecy that they operate under - and a genuine threat to everything that created this world in the first place. And yes, Goldman (along with JP Morgan, et cetera) do try to run the world as much as they can. A reasonable government does far more to stop them than to try to use them for good - the latter is pretty much a lost cause, as per Greg Smith (the former employee). |
2012-04-16T21:04:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13722 |
| That's my view of what is happening, yes. I don't see anyone else running the show right now. | 2012-04-16T19:04:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13720 |
| Thanks. Speaking of taxes, I'm sure you are busy. We should make Wednesday "Love Your Accountant Day". :-) | 2012-04-16T16:09:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13716 |
| Yes, it does scare the Hell out of me. And I still have to finish my taxes, so I also have better things to think about. Yuck. | 2012-04-16T16:08:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13715 |
| Well, it's gone up a bit since you posted, but yes. :-) I wasn't kidding about the pageviews. A lot of them are coming in from google thanks to so me SEO experiments that have worked out well - suffice it to say that most of what people talk about as SEO is outdated or just plain wrong. But there are a lot of people who read Barataria, and many of them come in on bookmarks. This audience is older and more international than most blogs, with about half the visitor being from outside the US - top nations are UK, Canada, Brazil, and Germany. | 2012-04-13T21:43:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13701 |
| "Just" a neighbor? Tsk, tsk ... :-) Seriously - I've been on the Federation Board of Directors off and on for 20 years (had a break when my kids were first born). I'm the Secretary. |
2012-04-13T21:08:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13700 |
| Thanks! For those of you who don't know her, Tonya was re-elected President of the Federation Board. Go Tonya! | 2012-04-13T21:05:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13699 |
| There is some subsidy that comes from city/state/fed sources, and there is also some support from foundations going into some of the Little Bohemia efforts. The Schmidt Brewery has some subsidy in the form of tax credits that come from Historic Property renovation that Dominium can use to offset profits elsewhere. There is not a lot of public money on the hook unless sales suffer greatly. That's part of the reason the project is being done in phases - to minimize risk. | 2012-04-13T21:05:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13698 |
| There is a balancing act for everything and it works best when the city engages the neighborhood. For example, there is now a plan to improve the speed and presence of the 54 express bus down West Seventh for about 1/10 the cost of the busway that was defeated - it will accomplish everything the more expensive plan would have but with far less damage to the street. I-35E was one of those things - a compromise no one is really happy with. I don't think the city writes tickets, but the state does sometimes. Remember that it took out about 1/4 of the housing in that part of West Seventh when it was built, which could have been devastating. It took us years to recover from the loss, but I think we're OK now. Little Bohemia is one of the neighborhoods that was severely damaged by that freeway. So anything to minimize the damage is still a good thing. |
2012-04-13T17:35:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13693 |
| District Councils are great, but it's very important to remember they are not a layer of government - just a tool for organizing and developing citizen participation. The most important thing is for people to get involved because the ones that don't work as well as the others generally rely on a very small group more than the whole community. Encouraging participation is really the most important thing. Space for artists to live and work is still the plan for the Schmidt Brewery, and it's moving ahead! |
2012-04-13T17:32:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13692 |
| No prob - Good to see ya, Andrew! | 2012-04-13T17:29:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13691 |
| Thank you! I hope someone reading this is in a position to offer me something. I should add that I'm relatively cheap. :-) But if you look at the pieces I selected, many of them are fairly well written on my part - largely because they are subjects I think about often, so there was plenty of time to digest the ideas. Yet what really stands out is the depth and quality of the discussion that engaged a decent number of people. This is not something that happens on most other blogs and it is what I am most proud of. In short, it's not really about me - it's about a community of people working to understand the world around us. Knowledge is power, and I feel that Barataria is achieving something great - empowerment. Thank you all for making this happen! |
2012-04-12T14:20:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13680 |
| Here are the best posts from Oct-Apr, the second set. Thanks everyone! Decline, Fall, or Dance? http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/ The financial isolation of Iran http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/ The Dollar Standard is in trouble ... http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/ New World, not ordered http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/ What makes a Swing State? http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/ The Pills http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/ Growing Jobs, Revisited http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/ A new "Romantic Era"? http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/ When Failure is an Option http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/ Moral Hazards of bailouts http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/ For the Euro, it's Print or Die http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/ Socialized Risk, Privatized Profits http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/ Supply Side is dead http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/ |
2012-04-11T21:56:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13677 |
| Thank you! I especially appreciate people who don't agree with everything I say because I think that at the very least we can talk about important things where we need to understand each other. I hope to, if nothing else, lead by example. | 2012-04-11T19:28:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13676 |
| Thank you! That means a lot to me. Truth to Power is what I think the whole game is right now, and with the 'net we have the tools to do it like never before. It's all about doing it right, IMHO. | 2012-04-11T19:26:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13675 |
| I have been posting some highlights (ie, posts I like) from the last year on twitter. Here are the choices for the first 6 months: Labor creates all wealth http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/09/02/labor-creates-all-weath/ Just try something - the liquidity trap http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/ Fear the Dragon? China fears us, too http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/ Ben Bernanke - an interesting guy http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/ Founding Fathers - their most important lesson was cooperation http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/founding-fathers/ Restructuring the Economy http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/ The Managed Depression http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/ Containerized Cargo may have changed the world as much as the internet http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/ Suburbanization of Poverty - http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/04/13/suburbanization-of-poverty/ Barataria's year in review |
2012-04-11T18:37:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13672 |
| Thank you both! I will keep trying, and I may "sell out" someday - but to be honest, I really don't even know how to do that. | 2012-04-11T18:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13671 |
| Thank you, Anna - I especially appreciate all you've done to help me. Someday things will turn around, but for now I have to stay at it and do what I can. But all of this would not happen without people like you supporting me and slapping me down when I say something stupid. It's all better because of this community and I know that. Thank you again! | 2012-04-11T15:59:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13666 |
| Thank you very much! I'll continue to get by and maybe I'll make it to "The Bigs" someday. Sancho Panza is my hero. As Freidrich Neitzsche said, there are two types of people in this world - Don Quixote and Sancho Panza. When people see the Picasso pic they assume that I'm the mad Don himself, tilting at windmills. On the contrary, I see our world as full of Don Quixotes - people that have been driven mad by all the BS (including their own). I am a dutiful Sancho Panza, riding in humble service and doing my best to make sure that the rest of the world doesn't get into too much trouble until that wonderful day when the madness ends. In the end, Sancho was rewarded for his trouble with his own kingdom - Barataria, the "cheap lands", better known as a swamp. Barataria is all I ever ask for. :-) |
2012-04-11T15:57:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13665 |
| all the time. :-) |
2012-04-10T19:12:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13653 |
| OK, I ran a regression, fitting a straight line to each. The BLS has an R squared of 0.07, which is to say it really is just about all noise - job creation in thousands is y = 4.9x + 66 (where x is the months after Jan 2010). That it doesn't intercept at zero is a problem, since that month was indeed the inflection point in job creation / loss. But we're accelerating 4.9k jobs per month. Doing the same for ADP we have an R Squared of 0.51, which is still lousy but much better. y = 7.0x + 33 in the same way, closer to a zero intercept, and we're accelerating by 7k jobs per month. By the ADP report, we'll be creating about 270k jobs per month by the election if this trend continues (which, given the quality of the fit, seems unreasonable as all Hell). |
2012-04-09T23:32:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13650 |
| The ADP report is less than 6 years old and not "official" http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/ner_faq.aspx#history Why Wall Street doesn't focus on it more is a bit of a mystery, but the "official" number is probably always going to trump anything. That "Establishment Survey" has been going on since 1939 and is traditional at this point. We have a lot of data through many recessions and it's kind of handy. But ... the modern ADP number is clearly a better method and the data seems to be much more consistent from month to month, as you would expect. I hope that puts this to rest. We'll see, tho. :-) | 2012-04-09T20:21:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13649 |
| Well, yes. They are wrong to the extent that they say there is some kind of trend from this one month of datum that might not even be a good number in the first place. It's a lot like reporting on public survey polls - if the margin or error is 4% and there is movement of 2% from one poll to the next, there is not actually any movement at all as far as you know. This just seems to be well within the noise, given the methods and the history, and the other method gave a different result. So it's "wrong" to say that job growth is slowing, yes. |
2012-04-09T17:48:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13647 |
| That's my call as well on the two. I didn't run a regression because there is a very real up and down to job growth with seasons and what-not, so I don't know that the variation would mean anything at all. It makes sense to me to start at the low point, Jan 2010, but that's not to say there haven't been several inflections since then. I don't think a regression would tell us an awful lot - especially since, as you can see, the two charts would almost certainly give us different trends. I'm thinking about it. Just wasn't an argument I wanted to lead with or spend a lot of time on. |
2012-04-09T16:38:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13645 |
| All that speculation is pure crap. Reporters never credit it as speculation, which is all it is, when the market falls or some piece of data comes it differently than expected. It's just nuts. Here's the inner workings of the two, you decide for yourself, I say. The most logical conclusion is that we're gaining jobs but it may be softening up some so watch out. | 2012-04-09T16:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13643 |
| Yes, that's the short version. But would you believe me if I just said that? :-) | 2012-04-09T16:10:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13642 |
| Thank you, I do find that to be the most important part. But I still propose solutions, rather than just complain. I like throwing ideas out there for everyone to think about more than anything, and background is important. Of course, writing a self-help book I can make a book out of is the next step. :-) | 2012-04-08T19:31:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13635 |
| Thank you! | 2012-04-06T19:50:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13630 |
| I gotcha. It's not that everyone is right, but everyone has a point to make from where they are standing. People aren't stupid, and they come to know and believe what they do for reasons. You may disagree with the reasons, but that does not make anyone necessarily either "wrong" or "right" - unless we're talking about a provable fact. As for raising kids or anything else someone does, I think there is a lot of room for "personal responsibility" - in fact, this should illuminate it. If you can really stand outside yourself you should be able to see yourself as others do. Does that picture really look as good as you'd like it to? Your example of raising kids is one close to my heart, of course. People are responsible for their children, absolutely, but in the end we all share what happens as they grow up to be citizens. I would hope that people could see what others think about their kids and how they are doing - how respectful the kids are, what their work ethic is, and so on. I'm very proud of my kids and I do tell them to think about what other people must think of them - it seems to have worked. I certainly apply that myself. But your angle, generally, is very rich and deserves more than I'm giving it here. This is not the usual "everyone is right" sort of stuff - it's more that everyone has a perspective on the world that at least deserves respect. I'd add "respect" to "personal responsibility" to make a list of things that need to be fleshed out to make this a real way of life. Thanks! |
2012-04-06T19:50:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13629 |
| Sheryl, you make an excellent point and that does need to be part of it. I'd like you to elaborate, if you have time - what do you think is the point where personal responsibility and being decent and civil come together? Does the idea of "standing outside yourself" sound too much like not taking responsibility? | 2012-04-06T17:05:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13626 |
| Amen, brother. Just trying to add what I can. | 2012-04-06T17:03:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13625 |
| That's the plan. Don't like the idea of a "movement" per se, but ... perhaps I can publish a book on the topic & become a self-styled guru - wait, that's all about "me", too! :-) | 2012-04-06T17:03:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13624 |
| I'm going to start with a few of my old pieces - I can get them well under 5 minutes without trouble. The kids and I have been playing with it for a bit, will have some stuff up tomorrow, I think. A 5 minute video is well over 1k words, from what I can see (I'm from the East, I talk rather fast) so there's a chance to take what I have and make it look pretty reasonable. | 2012-04-06T03:06:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13615 |
| Thanks! I'll keep doing this, but I hope I can get something out of a YouTube project eventually. So it's a matter of both! We're getting going with it now, so we'll see how quickly we can get some viddy up and goign somewhere. You're right, we have to go with a short attention span. That is the whole idea. I can cover the equivalent of about 1k words in 5 minutes by talking, so viddy actually lends itself to more detailed conversations if done right. That's what convinced me. But I'll keep it around 5 and see where it goes - unless you think even that is way long. Thanks! |
2012-04-05T12:56:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13613 |
| Thanks! Pretty much where I was going - reach a much bigger audience with short videos. Besides, I think I can get more like 1600 words worth into 5 minutes, which might be nice. | 2012-04-04T21:09:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13607 |
| Blame is not useful, you're right. I think I see a pattern - analysis with solutions, one topic at a time. But short and to the point. Focus on the work we have to do as a people - both in politics and outside of it. Social analysis / commentary is not getting many votes, but I may do a few all the same. Later on, though. Not sure how often I'll get to these, but I want to put a few out right away. |
2012-04-04T17:35:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13604 |
| Good advice, thanks! There are a lot of topics like the Depression that I have refined over the last year, with your help, that are worth re-visiting in one package. Will do! | 2012-04-04T17:33:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13603 |
| I'll just give it a shot, thanks! We start taping tonight, might have stuff up tomorrow. Mostly me talking, it seems. | 2012-04-04T17:31:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13602 |
| There are a lot of things going on that are not partisan in nature, given that most of our "politics" is completely detached from reality. I'll stick with that as a theme, I think. | 2012-04-04T17:31:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13601 |
| Good advice, thanks! Will take it to heart. | 2012-04-04T17:29:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13600 |
| Our unique position on the earth could not go on forever, no. | 2012-04-03T12:49:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13589 |
| Amen. But I think what’s important is that we won’t have any choice but to retreat home because our global economic power is clearly going to wane. It would be smart to make this a plan and say it was our idea all along. :-) Seriously, our influence will not be what it was at our height, and that could very well be a good thing. The decline of the US Dollar standard also means that US manufacturing will have a chance for the first time in generations, meaning that there will be much more opportunity for young people generally. So there are advantages for us in the coming years – but only if we work to make them happen and gain control over the developing situation. It is a lot like Katrina, the more I think about it! |
2012-04-02T21:07:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13587 |
| With you on this one completely. I also don't think that "work ethic" was invented in the West, either. But the exercise is still valid because it is very true that something worked - that is replicable and, I think, quite mutable too. | 2012-04-02T18:56:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13584 |
| I think that's the only practical way to look at it. We did get a lot of stuff from running the world, but we also got a lot of debt. Did it really pay off in the end? | 2012-04-02T18:55:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13583 |
| Pump yer fist in the air and shout "You Ess Ay!" a few times just to make sure. :-) | 2012-04-02T18:54:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13582 |
| Richard, I can't say that we have been doing the right thing. I think we've done the easy thing, in at least some way, by throwing our weight around as much as we do. Yet it would definitely be easier and certainly a lot better for our people if we took care of our own first. Most of what I write about is either our own inability to do anything we have to or how the rest of the world is in the process of leaving us behind. Yes, the two are very closely related! Projecting so much energy outward has allowed us to rot at the core - much the way Rome went down, in fact. But we are not an Empire, at least not internally, and we don't have to go that way! The end of imperialism is not such a terrible thing and we can live as one nation among many others if we just learn how to take care of our own. It's frustrating as all Hell, isn't it? |
2012-04-01T03:54:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13570 |
| All true, I think. :-) | 2012-03-30T21:01:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/30/buzzer-beater/#comment-13564 |
| I think that is true, but we'll see, eh? There was a poll which showed that the public doesn't blame Obama for the "recession", I can't find it now. | 2012-03-30T21:00:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/30/buzzer-beater/#comment-13563 |
| Excellent point! Natural gas is way down in price, too, in part because of the warm weather. In Minnesota our energy usage is about 1/3 each transport, heat, and electricity - lower methane prices affect two of those categories. I should have thought of that. Perhaps Obama should come out with a program to encourage fracking, maybe with a few new restrictions, to increase the conversion to methane and really end-route the Republicans. Just a strange thought. More on the methane economy later - I nearly wrote about it today, but need more data. |
2012-03-30T17:35:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/30/buzzer-beater/#comment-13560 |
| Excellent! I like reports like this. Should also ask my friend T to weigh in on how real estate is going. Real world cross-checks like this are very important to me, even if they are simply anecdotal. | 2012-03-30T17:32:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/30/buzzer-beater/#comment-13559 |
| I want to write about those times, I really do. But I have a lot of trouble doing it. This just doesn't seem like the place, but I can't say where is. So many stories to tell, so many things that would shock an ordinary Minnesotan. But it can't be done in a maudlin or selfish way - that would defeat the memories before they spilled out onto the 'net. I'm working on it. | 2012-03-30T04:28:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13552 |
| Menshevik, dude, you were always in the minority. :-) Besides, it was Mensch for short, and I will always stand by that part. :-) | 2012-03-29T21:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13550 |
| Not having been involved with their operations, I can't say for sure just how appalled I'd be with what they do if I got close enough to witness the details. To be completely honest, I'm certain that the vast majority of what they do would simply impress me if I got close to it - their organization is extremely effective and organized and I think we could learn a lot. On the other hand, we're Democrats - and naturally not inclined to simply "follow the leader". And there is this thing called "Democracy", always a loose concept in our system, where legislators are supposed to represent the people that elected them first - not some wealthy patron or even a rigid ideology. What I can say is that using ALEC as something to run against is difficult without a good story people can relate to. My first approach is to apply what I learned from Alinksy, but there are other ways. I do think that from what I've heard voters would not like ALEC if they knew about it, but getting the message out in a way that engages people is tricky. I'd like to work on it. In short, don't get mad - get even. :-) |
2012-03-29T12:58:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13546 |
| I have added an addendum to this post after further research. Blaming the death of Trayvon Martin on the "Stand Your Ground" Law is very wrong, according to the author of the bill. It would be a mistake to link this tragedy to ALEC, and not just because of the potential for further insult to the dignity of a young man taken from us far too young. See the end of the post above for more details. | 2012-03-29T04:22:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13544 |
| We have two sides in the comments here, and I appreciate what you are saying. Making politics out of Martin's death may make far more enemies than it could ever make friends. I respect that, and appreciate what you and Jim are both saying. | 2012-03-28T21:30:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13543 |
| The issue isn't really ALEC, it's the Koch Brothers. They are the personalities people can relate to. The message is that if you elect Republicans you're electing the Koch Brothers. I totally agree that ALEC is not doing anything wrong, but when people find out how much power they have and what it's used for I think there will be a good story to tell. As for using Martin's death, I do think that's tricky at best and probably should be avoided as a political issue directly. Using it as a footnote to what ALEC can do and the consequences is about all - it would be divisive, wrong, and probably not successful to lead with it. |
2012-03-28T20:09:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13541 |
| I agree, this is not sinister in and of itself. But it has been invisible for reasons that are not the fault of ALEC, and that needs to be corrected. Martin's death will be a political issue, especially if the left succeeds in going after ALEC. I included a link to my piece on "Rules for Radicals" because it is so terribly relevant - in both racial strife and the political struggle that we are in the middle of. As Alinsky advised: Pick the target - in this case, Koch Brothers freeze it - describe their work in great detail personify it - characterize the Kochs and polarize it - This is the issue that does it far better than gasoline prices, though both have their appeal. I am not yet Writing to Organize but that is where this is going. | 2012-03-28T19:28:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13539 |
| That makes sense, but I hadn't heard that before. It would be good to keep track of that, which I think many people have. This has been done very much in plain sight - it simply has been ignored. Let's see what comes out of all it. | 2012-03-28T16:36:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13537 |
| Our remarkable homeland does have a way of bringing far more tears and shame than it does pride, but we are still a people with our own strange ways. We also have stories that we need to tell, and I'm doing my best to tell them in ways that they register. The Koch Brothers are nearly perfect villains if the story is told well, but they have escaped scrutiny for decades and their stamp on Florida, among other places, is very clear. They have a long track record now and we can judge them for the terrible mess they've made of civilized society generally. Let's tell those stories and do it well so that people know. | 2012-03-28T16:34:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13536 |
| Bringing ALEC to light is a good thing, although to be fair they did not deliberately "hide" in the shadows but were simply ignored for a very long time. I simply think that it is critical that the left not fan the flames of fear and hatred no matter how we move forward on this. | 2012-03-28T16:29:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13535 |
| Yes, we can only speculate here. But it's fun. :-) There is little doubt that reducing the power of public employee unions is a long-term strategy of Republicans for some very good reasons. Having been involved in a campaign I have to say that the resources unions can bring to bear, including the databases and telephoning infrastructure, is absolutely critical to running a modern campaign. There is a reason they are being targeted, no doubt. But the over-reach has cemented the relationship between all unions and public employee unions in Wisconsin, which was a terrible tactical mistake, IMHO. The sheer number of people made it clear that "an attack on one union is an attack on all". Going back to the topic at hand, I think that reducing the power and influence of public employee unions could have been done with a kind of compromise that would have been far more productive in the long run, yes. |
2012-03-27T19:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13524 |
| Oh! Yes, I agree that there is terrible evil being done here in Minnesota, all directly to the Constitution. I am with you on this. But an example of what I'm talking about is pretty well illustrated in Wisconsin. The Repubs took their narrow control of both houses and the Gov as a "mandate", a word that is truly meaningless most of the time. Since they had no interest in consensus, they thought they could do whatever they wanted. That spawned a movement among the people of the state that is rather likely to erase whatever the Republicans thought they gained. If they had sought consensus, they probably could have gone some distance towards gutting public unions and the fuss would have been minimal. They probably could have gotten much more of their way in the end. Time will tell, of course, but I think the recall effort is likely to at least change the Senate, if not the Governor. What will that get the Republicans for all the fuss and fury? So even if your plan is to do something dastardly, consensus is still the way to go, at least in the long run, IMHO. |
2012-03-27T17:13:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13522 |
| I agree with you to the extent "compromise" is just a tactic to "win" and not a way of achieving consensus. That is the way it has gone lately, and it's not good at all. If one side has no interest in consensus, or for that matter getting the actual work of the government done, then "compromise" will always be an empty gesture at best. | 2012-03-27T17:08:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13521 |
| There have been weird problems posting lately, sorry. They did get things done, quite destructive and genuinely evil, when they had both houses of Congress and the Presidency, I'll agree. But lately I don't think anyone can point to even the most basic things happening - like a budget. The Dems do tend to compromise to the extreme, it's true, but the last time Obama really gave in to them was on the debt ceiling - and nothing actually happened in the end. There was no sequestration or anything else. Nothing. There's been a lot of noise about all kinds of side issues but I don't see anything actually passing. |
2012-03-27T14:12:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13517 |
| I don't think we can get anywhere without focusing on important goals. But then again, we have a Congress that cannot pass an actual budget - we've been flying on "continuing resolutions" for 3 years now. It's very sick and they do need to be held accountable for the inability to get even the most obvious thing done. But once we have goals, and a bit of leadership, some kind of consensus will be essential. We will see how it comes. It has to come someday. |
2012-03-26T20:38:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13507 |
| A truly sad example of selfishness (and aggressive behavior) ruining something that was probably once a fun community event. Sigh. | 2012-03-26T20:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13506 |
| On google+ the problem was identified as greed, but I'll state it as selfishness. People do not seem to believe that there is a common good that can solve our problems and move ahead together. That's a social problem that is very hard to solve, but it means that many things are going to become far worse before they become better (last Friday's take on "The Coming Jobs War" shows the urgency in at least one area). So yes, it can make your head spin there are so many ways to look at it that all come back to the same place at some point. But I think that place is ultimately selfishness and/or greed. |
2012-03-26T17:31:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13502 |
| Thanks. It's more a summary of many things I've talked about in the past, but the need for it seems obvious to me. | 2012-03-26T17:29:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13501 |
| Well, I think that the implementation is the hard part, as Clifton said about all the good ideas around. So what we really need is leadership. Not sure how we'll get that in a hurry, but perhaps we can make something happen somewhat spontaneously. | 2012-03-23T21:32:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/23/jobs-war/#comment-13474 |
| I have not read this all the way through but skimmed it and read summaries. I am getting to it. I did not see too many specifics that looked like we could implement them right away, but he does describe in detail the efforts that will be needed. I do think we have some things in place to play off of, and I'm going to start lining up those details. There is a good chance the state might have a role in some of the resources as well, especially when you look at the U of MN system. |
2012-03-23T17:08:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/23/jobs-war/#comment-13472 |
| A very good point! This is old-fashioned and in some ways a bit obvious, at least in terms of the organization that is necessary to make it happen. I think that with such a specific goal an effort like this could be put together in many cities. Shared work does make community more than anything else, and successful work even moreso. | 2012-03-23T17:06:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/23/jobs-war/#comment-13471 |
| Thanks, but this is very much what I believe is at the heart of this. 8.4% unemployment is at least 8.4% of the nation wasted - something we cannot afford. | 2012-03-23T17:03:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/23/jobs-war/#comment-13470 |
| I love how you may even be to the left of me on this! :-) But yes, oil is something so fundamental to our economy that it does cry out for regulation that keeps the number of people with their fingers in the pie to a minimum and the price as predictable as possible. I'd hate to end the futures market because when it is functioning properly it should even things out dramatically. But it appears to do the opposite most of the time with oil. If we taxed the bejaysus out of futures contracts held for, say, less than one month it might give the futures market the ability to do what it is supposed to. But I also agree that market forces are at best slow progress to renewables. Before we abandon it, however, I'd like to see more challenge grants and serious investment in new techs. That could be funded by a tax on oil at the crude stage. |
2012-03-22T21:16:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13460 |
| Yes, we will hear more of this. As much as I hate the Saud family, they are reliable lapdogs - er, partners. The price of oil will not stand, and they will sell as much as they can into it. Making a pile of dough in the process, of course. Whatever. | 2012-03-21T23:54:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13438 |
| I did find this chart of inflation adjusted gasoline prices: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Gasoline_inflation_chart.htm We are at an all-time high by any measure. It has helped conservation, tho, so it isn't all bad. But a slow, steady climb is what would make the biggest difference without a lot of pain. I think most people expect gasoline to be expensive for a long time and are planning accordingly - which is when we make real progress. |
2012-03-21T17:31:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13428 |
| You are right - it's not about us (anymore). So maybe that 24% increase isn't enough, but I was impressed that we made serious headway towards energy independence. But yes, there will always be Alaskan oil going to Japan even as Venezuelan comes into Louisiana. I really don't know about tapping reserves, to be honest. I would like to see a smackdown, thus proving it's all speculation, for the short term. In the long term you are right that we should hold it. |
2012-03-21T17:29:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13427 |
| We are being lied to by the Republicans. I try to keep cool about election year rhetoric, but saying that oil production is going down when it has gone up 24% is pretty outrageous. I would love to know more about commodity markets. I feel that the Obama administration is planning some kind of coordinated action around the world, with both suppliers and reserves, to smack the speculators pretty hard. Robert Rubin did that against US Dollar speculators, saying "The remember real pain" - and they didn't go after the Dollar again on his watch. I'm not entirely sure about the details on Better Markets, but I'm reading up on it. Consider it my recommended reading for the day. :-) |
2012-03-21T17:27:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13426 |
| Those coal plants are paid for, and probably have a 50+ year lifetime. I understand that new regulations are going to make many go away sooner than they would otherwise, but conversion is going to be slow with such big capital investments. At some point there's a lesson from SimCity. :-) Seriously, we converted a plant here in St Paul (the High Bridge Plant) and it's going well. Once we have the methane economy I'm sure we can start developing a lot of renewable ways of producing a big share of the energy we need, too. We'll get there, I'm sure. |
2012-03-20T03:11:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13411 |
| I'd like to make more from this stuff. The reason I went over to economic commentary is that people always seemed to like what I have to say - it's my niche. I'm far from an expert, of course, but I found a real hunger for what little I knew and have done my best to expand my knowledge and follow this stuff over the last (counts on fingers) five years. It's been fun. I am preparing scripts for some potential YouTube viddies on the subject. I don't know an artist who can make things as fun as McWilliams' "Punk Economics" but I do think some straight-up talk on the mysteries of the dismal science is in order. I'll probably take more of a James Burke (Connections) approach, so I have to be at my cheeky best. :-) My topics are just what I'm thinking about at the time. Always has been. I do try to wind unrelated things together because I have a Taoist "whole-life" view of politics, economics, and sociology. Strange things (like weather!) influence us a lot (Changes in Lattitudes, Changes in Attitudes). In the end I try to make sure it's all not really about me, since I'm not really what matters here - but it is my li'l blog and there are things I just have to get out of my head if I'm going to do other things that people pay me to do! | 2012-03-19T19:40:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13406 |
| I'm not going to say that Global Warming isn't real. But there are effects from the sun and so many other things that it is clearly complicated, at best. I've also done far too much work with IR analysis to think that CO2 is so much more important than all the water in the troposphere - in fact, the latter should have about 40x the "greenhouse" potential of CO2. However, burning so much hydrocarbon that we can see our atmosphere change is just not a good thing. That's even without the nitrous oxides and sulfur oxides that come with it - there are economic costs and so many other things. Nearly every war since WWI has had oil as a major mover of strategy and operations. It's just not a good thing! But we are in a cooling trend now and we will see just how anthropomorphic (man-made) the previous warming has been. My guess has always been half or less. |
2012-03-19T19:32:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13405 |
| Here it comes, too. But only a Midwesterner would say "We will pay for it". Well, we will. :-) | 2012-03-19T19:28:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13404 |
| Isn't it one Hell of a comparison? But you would expect that the first thing to happen in the atmosphere as we cool down is that all the water would fall out - which did indeed happen all around the world in 2011. Now, it's just chaotic. But we have to be careful taking what we experience and attributing it to a warming/cooling trend. Things are strange worldwide, and that's what we can say for sure. We also know that the sun has gone relatively dormant for the first time since the 1950s, at least. But a couple of years on a planet 6 billion years old just doesn't register as much. Big chaos to little creatures like us is just "normal" to Earth. :-) |
2012-03-19T17:23:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13400 |
| One thing I didn't get into is that we should have a mild summer, too - the relatively weak magnetic field around the earth should let in more cosmic rays, which seed more clouds. I think this will hold through the summer - but if we have strange patterns like we have now I'll bet there will be severe storms like crazy on the plains. | 2012-03-19T17:20:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13399 |
| It did turn out amazingly well, tho there was a time when I felt some tension. Gaining control by letting go - it was all very Dao. :-) | 2012-03-19T17:18:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13398 |
| This is an excellent question, and I did some digging to see if there was a good, clear answer. There were serious questions raised in 1974 when the nuclear program was being installed in Iran, according to a memo to the Secretary of Defense which has been declassified: “... domestic dissidents or foreign terrorists might easily be able to seize any special nuclear materials stored in Iran for use in bombs.” “...an aggressive successor to the Shah might consider nuclear weapons the final item needed to establish Iran’s complete military dominance of the region.” http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb268/doc02.pdf (pdf) The answer is that at least some people prominently placed (ie, they were advising a member of the cabinet) were aware of this potential problem. So it was foreseeable. But that was an excellent question and my initial glib statement was not entirely appropriate. As for the future ramifications of the Swift cutoff, this has never been done before so we can only guess. Iran has about 7% of its GDP in imports and 10% in exports - people in both of those business are likely to face unemployment. Their major source of money, oil exports, is likely to be cut off. It has to be devastating. It will take a month or two to sink in, but this has to increase the pressure on the government dramatically. Will the people of Iran blame their government for the serious Depression that is certainly coming, or will they accept that almost certain official position that this is the result of western imperialism / meddling / aggression ? My guess is that over time it will shift, but in the long run they will blame their government. We know there are demographic forces already at work pushing for change in Iran - now take all those young people and make them unemployed. The more I think about this, the more serious it seems. This may have to head into another post. Thank you for making me think and do some research. This is the 'net at its best, and I'm proud to host this conversation! |
2012-03-17T18:55:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13386 |
| Not much, I think. North Korea isn't our fault, but I can't come up with much else that we didn't at least have a hand in creating one way or the other. That's the problem with being the biggest, baddest cop on the planet - it's all our fault, and we tend to do things up big. Yeesh. |
2012-03-16T18:19:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13370 |
| Good point. I have been slow to accept that our incredibly high military spending is useful, but I will agree that before we cut it dramatically we have to solve a few problems. If Iran is at least neutralized along with Syria I think we have a case for withdrawing and spending less. The Obama administration has done a very good job on this score and I can't help but think that Secretary of State Clinton has been very instrumental in getting us to where we need to be. | 2012-03-16T18:17:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13369 |
| The noose has been tightening slowly on Iran - apparently they have been preparing for something like this for a while. You hit the nail on the head when it comes to food imports and so on, a very wise question! They import 59B$ worth of stuff according to the CIA World Factbook, which is about 7.2% of their $819B GDP (at PPP). It's not huge. They do import $7.4B in food, which does not seem like a huge share of their total food, so I don't think this will starve them out. It does sound like enough to cause a very serious recession, however, which will increase political pressure - given that the mullahs have been tightening the screws lately that could prove explosive. A very new twist! We will see how it shakes out. |
2012-03-16T17:32:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13366 |
| Isn't it mind blowing? I read this on the BBC updates and immediately knew that it was unique - I hadn't even heard of Swift since the dust-up in 2003 or so over US terrorist-tracing. Why didn't this happen before? It seems that a strange side effect of smacking down the US ability to use Swift data indiscriminately made it clear that Swift falls under EU law - and they are complying with that. It's a sword and a shield, it seems. I agree, this is way bigger than what we could ever do with military action. I think it shows once again that $700B doesn't buy us as much as we think. |
2012-03-16T17:28:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13365 |
| Business model? Oh, not, this is just a hobby. I have always used Barataria as a place where I get things out of my head that would otherwise keep my brain too occupied to do the things that make me actual money, which are writing things for other people. The ads are from wordpress, not me! I do make a little bit off of donations on Barataria, but that's it. | 2012-03-16T14:02:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13358 |
| Rossini I can drop, but "My Little Pony" really brings 'em in! Seriously though, I have thought about this subject a lot. I don't see this as a left-right political issue, at least in terms of understanding what is going on with these extra-national mega-financiers - and Goldman is at the top of anyone's list (along with Deutsche Bank, PNB Paribas, and a few others). I am very certain that there is a lot which can be written about them without even getting near solutions or politics in any way at all. That idea came to me about a year ago when I was re-reading Galbraith's "The Great Depression", where Goldman has a chapter all its own. S-s-s-same as it ever was, eh? However, there is a huge problem with doing this: I don't think anyone, anywhere, understands the world's financial system and the products sold by these companies. Even inside of them. That's at the heart off the "Fabulous Fab" boast, after all. I have never, ever known just where to start with this company and the ones like it. What I am sure is that it would get arcane and very subtle quickly. Here is what I can promise you - I will try. I will dig into this a bit, start perhaps with Galbraith and some history, and work forward as I can. I do have to make a living somehow, so as a project this can only take so much of my time, but I will do my best. |
2012-03-15T20:15:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13351 |
| I'm better in person. :-) I'm working on it. Right now all I have is me talking, no fun graphics. Not sure how to fill that gap. | 2012-03-14T21:14:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13348 |
| Yup. Let's say he made 1% off of that and his cut was 0.1%. He probably made at least $10M a year - very conservatively. That's a lot of reasons to stick around even as it starts to seem ugly. | 2012-03-14T21:12:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13347 |
| Yes, I really don't think there are any surprises here at all. But I think it's important to get the word out and confirm our worst fears - hopefully it'll spur some action and give us a good response to the people who insist that operations like Goldman are somehow good for something in the world. As for why it took him so long, see below. :-) I think it's pretty obvious. The young, aggressive "winner" hit an age where maturity set in. I'm guessing he has kids, probably rather young ones, but you never know what set it in motion. |
2012-03-14T21:09:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13346 |
| Great point. There are good people everywhere, embedded in bad situations like this. Maybe what we need more than anything else is for good people to rise up, speak from the heart, and promote more love and compassion around the world. That may sound like a lot of hippie-talk, and I'm not going to tell you it's enough by itself, but it sure wouldn't hurt. I'd also like to hear more from religious leaders on this topic as well. We have totally lost our moral compass in this nation, not just Goldman - that's what got to Smith eventually. Who is giving courage to the moral and decent people of the world to stop the behavior we see at Goldman, regardless of the money involved? |
2012-03-14T17:34:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13341 |
| I suppose a lot of lawsuits would take care of it. Perhaps there is some way of regulating them by setting up a consumer protection agency that has some real teeth. That would take a lot of activism to get anywhere near Congress, let alone passing it, however. If Smith does nothing more than fuel an uprising maybe we can make something of it. |
2012-03-14T17:31:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13340 |
| I'm sure thousands are - and all the best people, too. This can only get worse, given how nothing has changed for the better after 2008. | 2012-03-14T17:04:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13337 |
| I have no ideas how to change Goldman Sachs into a company mindful of the public good - no ideas at all. The only thing we could possibly do is reduce their influence. That sounds very difficult, but a few more stories like Greg Smith coming out and it should hit them where it counts. At least, I hope it does. The problem with Goldman is that they might do something utterly bizarre and everyone will follow them simply to avoid being left out - talk about controlling the market! | 2012-03-14T17:03:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13336 |
| I think I'm up for that. A sit-down seminar would be fun - not just me, but a lot of people talking about how we got where we are today. It's not that complicated (and what's complicated is not important, eh?) | 2012-03-13T15:11:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13321 |
| I'll do my best. :-) I'll let everyone know on twitter what's up as we get our schedule together! Thanks for inviting me! | 2012-03-13T04:38:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13319 |
| I hope you are right. It is about time. | 2012-03-13T04:37:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13318 |
| It's not that the Mainstream Media is all that complicit, it's that they don't understand it themselves. That, and they think it's always boring and no one cares. We're starting to see a lot more of this, but it's tentative at best. There is demand for this kind of teaching / explaining, however, and it's growing every day, IMHO. | 2012-03-12T19:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13312 |
| The comment on the US was based on our having a complete union, not just a currency union. We share a lot more, so a deep recession in one part of the nation is spread out among the rest of it. It's a European perspective on the situation that really does not apply to what we have to do here and now, but it's worth noting. Socialized risk is a serious problem. It only makes sense if we become a truly socialist nation, with the reward spread out as much as the risk. There are ways of making sure the reward is spread out but still remaining a free market economy, but overall I think not socializing the risk is a far better bet. But yes, we all share benefits from a healthy banking system and so there is something to go around no matter what. It has to be on terms that make sense, however, and that's what McWilliams is trying to get across. |
2012-03-12T17:01:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13310 |
| Thanks. I am looking into it. People need to get up to speed fast if we're going to do something that benefits the whole democracy as we grope our way out of the hole. | 2012-03-12T16:57:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13309 |
| Yes, you have it right. Everything about the US Dollar is about to change, and this is very significant. But it is probably inevitable, so having it happen gradually will give the market time to adjust - so we probably should be a part of the process. There are benefits to this as well. This is the only way that our manufacturing has a chance of competing in the world, meaning good paying jobs with a lot of growth potential for millions of people. How many? I can't say for sure, but it seems to me that manufacturing jobs at about 10% of all jobs (12% of GDP) is pretty low - Germany and Japan are about double that. It could make a very big difference. However, it does mean inflation and a lot fewer gizmos to buy. We will probably have to change how we live in many ways. Oil may become much more expensive, too, which may be a very big problem. I'm debating with @sumnums on twitter how much oil price shocks contribute to our recessions, and the short answer is that they predict them almost completely. But a slow rise in oil prices may not be as terrible, we're going over historical data on that now. Bu yes, this is HUGE and it means the end of an era for the US as the dominant economy in the world. We are about 23% of world product but influence far more than that. Dropping back to just our "rightful" quarter of the world would be a big decline - not the end of the world, but a very big deal. |
2012-03-11T21:57:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13299 |
| (I responded a few days ago, but it appears that my post was eaten - this has been happening a lot lately!) My contention is that there was no typical recovery from the official recession of 2001. Despite tremendous stimulus in the form of deficit spending and historically low interest rates the private part of the economy continued to contract and job growth never rebounded. That links it into the recession of 2007 - and once those two merge you have a long-term phenomenon that can only be called a "Depression". This recovery, too, has characteristics that are fairly unique compared to postwar downturns, also suggesting it was a very different kind of event. But history is a continuum, and I do agree that something changed significantly a long time before our current troubles. You could easily date that to the 1973-74 oil price shocks or the 1971 end of the gold standard. There are some inflections in manufacturing as a share of both GDP and jobs around 1968. When is the real inflection point? It depends what you are looking for. Taking the Fisherian view that this is all about debt cycles, you see a real inflection at 1980. I'm starting to take that as significant, but other arguments are of course very reasonable. As for oil, I do not entirely disagree with you. However, the cost of most of obtaining most of our domestic oil is pretty high, so significant capital investment assumes high prices if we are to have a decent return. There is nothing stopping some of the projects, like shale, other than the lack of some kind of guarantee from the US government - and I do not necessarily think that is wise. Our reserves of natural gas are much more plentiful, so developing systems based on methane are more likely to come in at a lower price without subsidy or guarantee from what I can see. These have the additional benefit that there are many sustainable ways to produce methane from crops, garbage, etc that could plug into such a system over the long haul. So I would say that if the Feds are going to invest in something new, methane systems have a much longer term promise. However, the point remains that we do not have an actual energy policy with long-term goals at all - a position unique among developed nations. It's rather embarrassing. If developing such a policy means a compromise that includes some more support for deepwater drilling and so on, I'm game. |
2012-03-11T15:36:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13297 |
| I suppose this could have been a small series, but it's more about the news as it comes in than anything else. There are a lot of links to provide back-up, so that's what we have to go with. I'll think about how to make a longer single narrative out of this. Perhaps as an eBook that I can sell? Dunno. |
2012-03-10T05:51:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13288 |
| On this point we agree completely! So how do we make it so with the least pain, both for us and the rest of the world? I think that's one of the top questions we should be asking in this election - up there with "How do we restructure to the next economy?" | 2012-03-09T19:06:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13281 |
| I think you are right - people know this is in their guts, not their heads. But to quote Pat Buchanan we are "A Republic, not an Empire". If we go back to doing what we do best, which is pretty clearly *not* running the world, we will actually be better off in many ways that we don't understand now. I've been convinced by a number of you readers that there is a lot to put into place before we can really pull back, especially militarily. But it will have to happen someday, and the sooner we get things in place so that we can do it the better we'll be able to manage it all. I would love to get my message out more, yes. I'd love to have radio gigs. But sadly this has not come to pass. I think that our legacy media is not yet ready for this message - even though, as you say, most people already "get it". |
2012-03-09T19:04:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13280 |
| Thanks. This is a dense topic and I did include a lot of links with more explanation on the various topics. This does all link together because we are about to get what we've long wanted out of China - a free floating RMB/Yuan - but we are totally unprepared for what that means. There are massive policy implications no matter what, but the bottom line for most people who don't pay attention (nearly everyone) is that consumer goods will have to become more expensive. Laptops, telephones, TVs, all that stuff - there will be inflation in those items over the next 10 years. It may be offset by productivity improvements and other cost reductions, but we should never count on that. Part of the reason I tend to go on my "buy less" rants is that the less we rely on this crap the less of a hit we will take when all this goes down. |
2012-03-09T17:23:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13277 |
| The "gotcha" here is more from small, social media. It's only important in that it is bound to fire people up like crazy - especially if there is one more event like this. The debt is a very big story, since it's very big debt. Stockman is right that this will limit our ability to grow, which is how we've tackled debt at every other spike on that curve - we grew our way out of it. Very low (heck, even negative?) interest rates are clearly helping us manage it, but it still has to end badly at some point. I agree, figuring out how we will grow our way out of this is very much the key. We have to restructure and transform our economy one way or the other to make that happen. There are some very nasty things on the horizon for the US Dollar that I may write about on Friday, so this could get much more ugly in the medium term. In the short run, however, we do have job growth ahead of what we'd expect for an economy growing at a rate less than 3.3% annually. That's something. It may prove to not be sustainable for this very reason, but it will help. |
2012-03-08T17:13:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13262 |
| Thanks Matt! I avoid the term "Classical" music because it is far too loaded. Besides, I like all kinds of old stuff, including folk music that never made it to the highbrow. So I tend to use the tern "antique" instead. But there are pieces of music that are simply part of our culture, for better or worse. That's true just as there are stories, statues, architectural forms, and so on that make up our common currency. People do need to know 'em all one way or the other. If Bugs Bunny makes it happen, well, good for Bugs! :-) |
2012-03-08T00:28:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13258 |
| Thanks. It's always best to be as up-front as possible with this stuff and confront them directly when we can. | 2012-03-08T00:24:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13257 |
| But at least some of the interesting things are positive. Jobs are good! | 2012-03-08T00:22:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13256 |
| I was a bit slow to accept it, too, but I'm sure it's real. The BLS might be able to fake unemployment rates, but I doubt ADP can be bought off. The numbers are there every month and growing. I agree - this election is over if all this continues. But that's why I put the little blurb about Greece at the end - there are still things out there to mess it all up before November. Read the interview with Stockman if you want a longer list of potential problems. Yeesh! |
2012-03-07T20:03:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13252 |
| Just image every household in the US with not just a liberal voter, but a liberal activist. That's what is at stake by really pissing off women. It is a game changers. Then, consider for a moment the generation gap that every mother feels with her daughter - things have changed so rapidly that women under about 30 really don't know what it was like for their parents. Now, they do. The Republicans are about to lose a generation of women forever if they keep this up. One more issue that demonstrates the need and the value of activism and it is all over for them - for a long time to come. You are very, very much not alone. And I'm pretty sure you know it, too. |
2012-03-07T20:02:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13251 |
| I am sure you are not alone, too. Consider that about 60% of all voters are women. Tick off north of 80% of them, and the election is just plain over - up and down the ticket. | 2012-03-07T18:29:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13248 |
| I would understand it if we wound up with a compromise like a "Civil Union" and kept talking about what comes next. The problem with the amendment is that it closes the door for a long time on real equality. This is obviously a controversial issue and it should be worked out in the open - with love and respect. I'm starting to re-think labeling the opposition as "hate" because I've gotten some tweets and mail from people who are simply unsure right now - not hateful, just not ready to break with tradition. Labeling them "hateful" isn't going to help anything, I think. There is indeed a lot of hate out there, but it isn't everyone's problem. | 2012-03-06T15:37:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13232 |
| Thank you! Yes, we fight hate with love and we win. We talk openly about family and never dodge the issue - because it is what matters! We are not a bunch of theoretical policy wonks and holdover teenagers demanding rights, we are loving adults who want everyone to have the same opportunities. It does change everything when it's done properly! Thanks again, great article. | 2012-03-05T18:32:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13222 |
| I hope that is the case. It's likely true here. | 2012-03-05T18:30:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13220 |
| Glen - good to see ya, hope there is more in Barataria for you! You understand my reasoning and planned role very well. Fear and hype is the enemy of true progress, so we can't be too hopped up in that if we want to do something good in the world. Most Minnesotans want to be decent, loving people, I'm sure, and we should appeal to to them directly. That's my role, at least. The nastiness and fear will come, but until then we have to give reasonable people something to think about and talk about with their families and friends. Every little bit counts! Thanks for weighing in, the discussion in the comments are what make Barataria more than just my little blog! |
2012-03-05T14:24:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13215 |
| Thanks. We all have our roles to play here, and I think mine is to appeal to those in the reasonable middle who might be susceptible to careful and apparently reasonable arguments. The one I found on their site was simply not relevant and people who are reasonable need to know why. | 2012-03-05T14:19:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13214 |
| Thanks. We have to match hate with love where we can, though. That's what I am trying to do here. | 2012-03-05T14:18:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13213 |
| Thank you, that is exactly what I think needs to be done. I wanted to be sure that someone, somewhere, addressed the issue of children before this argument got anywhere at all. There are people with legitimate concerns that are susceptible to arguments like these - someone has to address it directly and quickly. It is simply a BS argument, yes. But we have to remember that our family, friends, neighbors, and co-workers are the ones who might be thinking about things like this as they consider the issue. After November, we have to continue to live and work together. Whatever we can do to bat down arguments like this respectfully and quickly the better, IMHO. |
2012-03-05T03:48:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13207 |
| There are many ways to look at this issue. I tend to favor the argument put forward by Sen. John Marty, a Lutheran Pastor. He has advanced the idea that the government probably should not be telling any faith how to define "marriage" at all, and should simply junk the entire term as a legal definition altogether. I favor that separation of church and state, especially given that many faiths now perform same-sex marriages. For the purpose of this article, however, I wanted to refute the assertion of the pro-amendment coalition that this has anything to do with children. It does not. That attempt to re-define this amendment has to be cut down before it gets any traction at all because it is ridiculous. |
2012-03-05T03:44:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13206 |
| An excellent article by David Frum in Newsweek - "Why Rush is Wrong". The whole article is worth reading, but I especially like this at the bottom of page 2 to the top of 3: "The conservatism we know evolved in the 1970s to meet a very specific set of dangers and challenges: inflation, slow growth, energy shortages, unemployment, rising welfare dependency. In every one of those problems, big government was the direct and immediate culprit. Roll back government, and you solved the problem. Government is implicated in many of today's top domestic concerns as well … But the connection between big government and today's most pressing problems is not as close or as pressing as it was 27 years ago. So, unsurprisingly, the anti-big-government message does not mobilize the public the way it once did. Of course, we can keep repeating our old lines all the same, just the way Tip O'Neill kept exhorting the American middle class to show more gratitude to the New Deal." |
2012-03-04T04:03:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13185 |
| I think you are right. That might be why Barataria's traffic has been increasing dramatically lately, too. There seems to be a hunger for substantive discussion of complex issues and fresh perspectives that the regular press is just starting to catch up on. More is always better, so we have to encourage everything we can! | 2012-03-03T20:06:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13173 |
| I think that the Koch Brothers are in for a lot of publicity they'd rather not have this year. I've always been one to exercise caution going after them in the past, but I think the background has been laid for a big surge forward in demonizing them. Raising the issue of gas prices is kind of like lighting a big stogie while filling your tank. :-) | 2012-03-02T21:43:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13159 |
| I think you are right that Ford has a gap in its product line, which makes the closing of the Highland Park Plant here in St Paul seem even stranger. Then again, Ford has been in great shape as car companies go, so they seem to know what they are doing. I can sound like Tom & Ray Magliozzi (sp?) all the time if you let me (especially Tom, sadly). | 2012-03-02T21:42:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13158 |
| Interesting take, and I did forget about the recall election. The Koch Brothers have been quite prominent in Wisconsin, which has always puzzled me. I wonder how much of that has sunk in to the consciousness of the general public, however. They make a great bogeyman IF they are "flushed out" and visible. That's a big IF to me, however. People have to feel it for it to work. But as Alinsky said, "Pick the target, freeze it, personify it". They are the personification of the target if it can be made to stick. Nice ending on the Republican Party. I do wish we had the "old" party back - the one that could make a deal and actually govern. I know there are many people in the party who agree with this - but don't know what to do about it. Good luck if you're willing to be one of them. I mean it. |
2012-03-02T19:28:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13155 |
| That is what I was thinking here, yes. I tend to put it a bit differently, is all. :-) | 2012-03-02T19:25:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13154 |
| OK, you've convinced me - I'll think more about petroleum and what it means to the world. There are dozens of sub-topics and y'ins (y'all?) are hitting many of them in the comments. But no, people don't blame our government for this - or apparently expect it to solve the problem. That does seem good. |
2012-03-02T19:24:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13153 |
| Thanks. China, Malaysia, Indonesia, India ... the whole developing world are using more all the time. That's why Brasil's energy independence is so important for them - it guarantees economic growth no matter what happens around the world. But I do agree that things are going well if a bit painful - a good way of putting the problem. Its like a scar that is healing, but very itchy all the time. :-) | 2012-03-02T19:22:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13152 |
| Thanks! This is a very complex issue that I decided to write about from a narrow perspective - and it still ran long! You're right that fracking is at best controversial and in need of a lot more research and probably regulation - but that is mainly for natural gas, which I generally support tapping more. I covered that in another post. There is a lot of value in switching to a methane based economy, rather than petroleum, because it sets up systems that alternative fuels can "plug into" as they come along in many cases. As for fuel economy, it has been going up dramatically lately, which is a great sign (link to Bureau of Transportation Studies). I guess I should have included that link in the post itself. But this is very good news all around. | 2012-03-02T16:47:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13146 |
| I agree, over the long haul people have come to understand that it's only going to go up and we need alternatives. I worked in an alternative fuel program for a while, trying to make a burnable liquid from corn stalks. There is a lot of research that needs to be done in these areas, and we're just scratching the surface of what can be done. Meanwhile, the free market is working pretty darned well at raising the price slowly, so we can get off the stuff. There is always hope! | 2012-03-02T16:13:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13144 |
| Thank you! A good piece with a lot of detail. For the record, my "save Derpy" opinion is based entirely on the notion that once the episode was put out there it should not be changed - even if a big mistake was made. That makes it harder to deal with the issue, but it will be more fulfilling in the end. In a big family, like the Bronies, you can never erase what you said that was hurtful but you can apologize and make it better. If the community is really what counts to MLP (and it should be!) they have to understand this, IMHO. | 2012-03-02T16:02:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13142 |
| What I think is the biggest mistake here is how it was handled. If they are sure they made a mistake, going back and "erasing" it does say what you fear, I would argue. And that is wrong. This is an important social issue that everyone encounters eventually. It is worth an episode to clarify what to do about it - with patience, tolerance, and love. Very few of us get this "right" the first time we encounter it, but with practice and good examples we can all learn. It's all about being a truly good person, which is what I thought the show was about as well. |
2012-03-01T13:56:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13123 |
| It's all about the effort! :-) This reminds me, I've long thought about compiling a list of "classics" that everyone should know. The pieces that just show up everywhere - in ads, movie music, etc. Some of them are not technically "classical", like Funiculi, Funicula (the bouncy piece always used to sell a new Italian sandwich) but are really kind of folk pieces. Whatever. There's a short list of 20 to maybe 50 that everyone should be at least familiar with if you want to know the popular classics. I doubt I can put it together myself, but with help from the 'net I'll bet one can be assembled. |
2012-03-01T13:52:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13122 |
| I just saw it! He's finally getting the respect he deserves, I guess. What a hoot! | 2012-02-29T18:03:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13118 |
| Thanks! I only get this chance once every 4 years so I had to take it. :-) | 2012-02-29T18:02:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13117 |
| I do my best to make history fun! :-) You just have to find fun people to talk about - like Rossini! | 2012-02-29T18:02:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13116 |
| Thank you for the alternative viewpoint. I knew there had to be a few. As I said before, people who are a bit different in this way have been "protected" for centuries. The words that were used to describe them have had to be revisited every generation or so because they became hurtful. People like that never do well when singled out, either in language or in pointed fingers or in stares - or even glances away from them. This simply had to happen with "My Little Pony" someday. It had to. Life always comes at us with difficult and embarrassing things that we as individuals are just not sure how to deal with - and as a society or group usually fall down even harder. It's not people or ponies like Derpy that are the problem, it's "the normals". We're the ones who can't deal with it properly. Now, I'm very much not a Rainbow Dash fan. OK, I really dislike the character (I'm a Rarity guy, I admit). But her response to Derpy's problems was completely typical. It was natural and the kind of situation that people find themselves in all the time. The whole episode was a learning experience. And they punted on it. That was the real shame. The Herd will get through this. Hasbro will get over it. Lauren Faust and team will think their way through and come up with something that they should have in the first place. It will be better. It's a lot like life. But for now, it was handled very badly - just as it usually is in real life. We'll see how it goes from here! Thank you again, I do appreciate your heartfelt statements. If you think it was hurtful, it was. That has to be recognized. |
2012-02-29T04:08:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13104 |
| I think I've been corrected (and very politely, too!) - Bronies, or fans of the show, are not just kids by any stretch. And why people love the show is inspiring in itself. More on this later on in the comments, but thank you for correcting me. I hate being wrong enough to get myself over to the right side as quickly as possible. :-) | 2012-02-28T19:29:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13093 |
| Wow, thank you! The Bronies I know are all kids, so I suppose my opinion was simply wrong. I can see why adults like the show, since I do as well. Good animation is simply good - take Miyazaki, for example! It does tie us back to a time when anything was possible and a simple sunrise was a reason for excitement. That joy should be part of everyone's life. As for Derpy, well, it was inevitable that something controversial in life would bleed over to the show in an uncontrollable way. Look at how terribly they are handled in our politics (the art and science of human interaction as well as the operating system of a Democratic-Republic). What would the controlling interest, in this case Hasbro, do? They reacted as any ... well, reactionary would. There are huge lessons in here, beyond the difficult subject of mentally challenged and/or simply different people. You guys are great, keep it up! It's more than a show, it's a community of love and joy and connection to the world that was and always is possible. |
2012-02-28T18:52:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13090 |
| Thank you! I do have to confess that I love the show, too, because it is a great antidote to the hate and selfishness that seems to define our world. The story of the show and its interaction is very unique and needs to be told - in a lot more than the 800 words I give to an essay here. You fans are a big part of the story. | 2012-02-28T18:45:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13089 |
| Thanks, Gini. There is considerable evidence (well, gossip) that the team had a plan in place but were over-ruled by upper management at the channel. There is probably a lot more to this story that won't come out for a bit. Also, the fan pages are ... well, a bit dense with stuff and really hard to wade through (this is a show with a lot of teen appeal!) so finding good info is especially hard. But the story of "My Little Pony" was very interesting even before this controversy because I can't think of any other show that has turned itself over so completely to the fans. The potential abrogation of copyrights alone is a fascinating topic, worthy of lengthy interviews with the staff to find out how they got to that point! | 2012-02-27T19:34:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13082 |
| This is great! Maybe we can spread a little more joy in the world through this controversy. Something good should come of everything, right? The only thing I'd add is that "My Little Pony" feels like SciFi or Fantasy sometimes, in that it uses an alternative (and complete) world to deal with issues that are harder to deal with in real life. That's why the big punt on Derpy seems so strange - this was obviously another teaching moment, but it was apparently too much for the higher-ups. Fandom clearly has a lot of cross-over with SciFi for his reason. There are times when I think about what Star Trek meant to my generation - that we would somehow survive this era and go on to be a peaceful people - and realize that while the lessons in "My Little Pony" are much simpler they resonate even stronger. And then there are all the fan written stories (fan-fic) that mark a SciFi series, too. Another thing I didn't mention - The Hub is a joint venture of the Discovery Channel's parent and Hasbro, and they are re-evaluating it right now. "My Little Pony" is their only big hit, and as you can see it came at some hefty cost (ie, potential loss of copyrights). They are probably very controversy-adverse right now and came down on the staff with a big hammer. |
2012-02-27T17:34:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13080 |
| Thank you! I was very much hoping some of the fans would chime in here, because you are very much the real story here. I think you are very right - the story was accepting Derpy for who she is, regardless of any supposed "defects". Bronies are kids (mainly kids, at least!) who are very much rejecting the hate and fear that defines so much of our society these days - and that is one other part of this whole experience that I simply had to leave out in the name of a good introductory story. There is a lot to say on this topic, and I find it terrible that it was handled so badly. What started out as a new way to sell stuff is now a cultural phenom that challenges the Way Things Are(tm). This was, and is, a teaching moment that might redefine a lot more than the interaction between teevee and social media. Breaking down the fourth wall forever could bring people together in ways that they have never come together before. Thank you, again. You guys are great, and I appreciate your loving and upbeat attitude. It's a great antidote to the hate that is far too common in this world! |
2012-02-27T16:10:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13076 |
| This is a detail I had to leave out of the original post for the sake of Unity. I'll discuss it here. The term "Derpy" means "awkward or embarrassing". It does not necessarily mean mentally challenged. But it was taken that way by some people, apparently. Protecting people like this has a long history and is far from new or "PC". 200 years ago the term "chretien" was used for mentally challenged people in France, arguing that they were "Christians" like anyone else - this became "cretin" in English. When that was used offensively, it was suggested 100 years ago that the word "moron" be used, after a French pantomime clown. That also became offensive, and so by the 1950s "retarded" took over. Now that is offensive as well, so "mentally challenged" is the correct term. What matters is that there is a long history of protecting people who are not like others, creating the need to change the language away from terms that have become offensive over time. I do not think this is the central issue here - giving this show over to fans was bound to find its way to a controversial subject eventually. What matters is how it is handled (so far, rather badly) and what that means to the interaction that has made the phenom so far. "My Little Pony" is a huge experiment that could well redefine teevee as we know it. There is a lot more to be said about Hasbro creating its own cable channel in the first place, along with the YouTube use of their work. This is a fascinating and deep subject that was bound to hit social boundaries. |
2012-02-27T16:03:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13075 |
| Yes, it is. My teenage daughter is a "Bronie" and introduced me to this. It is a well written show, and it is very much a new approach to television as we know it. The merchandising is clearly worth more to them than the traditional revenues, or at least they are trying the experiment out. | 2012-02-27T15:51:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13073 |
| Great article, thanks. Turkey is more than a bit enigmatic - it's totally unclear to anyone, including them, as to whether their future is more to the east or the west. Naturally, they are at the crossroads of the world and need to capitalize on that, but the tensions have been so strong that Turkey winds up more on the margins than the middle. That's just sad. Turkey in the EU? If Greece keeps screwing up, arguments based on Cyprus for keeping Turkey out won't have as much pull. We really do live in interesting times, eh? :-) This is all stuff I haven't really thought out yet, so I'm as interested in people sending me good articles to read as anything else. Thanks! |
2012-02-25T17:46:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13064 |
| Good list, thanks! I like sharing links in the comments, especially to articles / blog entries that are useful. We are in a prolonged "bubble" economy, and unwinding all the garbage we've integrated is going to take forever. A whole lot of regulation is probably needed just to move things forward, IMHO. At least one Hell of a lot more disclosure is necessary, if nothing else. |
2012-02-24T21:56:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13059 |
| Exactly. I would love cut Defense dramatically, but I realize that it's dangerous right now. A foreign policy that builds coalitions against dictatorships and rids the world of the most onerous would get us to the point where we can do that without qualm. That has to be a goal, IMHO - and I think it is one internally. Iran has some bizarre internal pressure that are coming out in weird ways. There has been a crackdown by the hardliners - obviously, they thought they had to, but why? They also make the most noise about their nuclear program when they need a diversion, so we have that going on. I expect that there is a lot more fermenting below the surface in Iran than we know. They are acting up in strange ways. Assad's likely downfall has to have 'em spooked, too. India and Pakistan .... yeesh. Obama wants to really cozy up to India, which probably makes sense in the long term (esp. as a front against China) but what on earth can be done about Pakistan? I think I agree that some presence in Afghanistan is going to go on forever, but it would be nice to make it more UN or Arab League stewardship. If the Arab Spring revolts continue we should have more allies in the area - less reliable, democratic ones that are at least better capable of handling their own region. al Jezeera is probably the most important force for real change in the world right now, IMHO. They are just amazing. |
2012-02-24T21:53:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13058 |
| I won't argue with you on what "Our problem" is, but if we are to support our allies in the region it does become something we can and should help with. But yes, the main point is that Assad has to go, and I think the world sees that. I would love an Israeli view of this, but what I've read so far has been pretty cagey as they don't want to even appear to be involved. | 2012-02-24T20:09:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13055 |
| I think we can do what we need to with far fewer troops and less forward deployment - IF something happens to take Syria and Iran out of the picture. At that point, the actual threat will not be obvious, so where would we deploy anyway? Our military will have to become smaller and more efficient, and this could make it all possible. Keep in mind that even if we slice our spending in half we'd still command the largest military in the world by far, spending 25% of global military expenses. And we'd save $350 Billion a year. Our economic security is by far our most critical strength and we cannot compromise it. Our expenses on military is pretty far out of line right now and a serious impediment to ever balancing the budget. But I'm OK with waiting until we let this play out. I'm happy that we're not just sending in the Marines for once and really building coalitions to get things done. Libya was good, Syria could be next. After that, yes, North Korea has to come into play. But no, we should not withdraw from the world - just seek a better balance. |
2012-02-24T20:06:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13054 |
| Thanks. I'm learning along with everyone else as this progresses. I think we won't go anything alone anymore, which give me great hope. | 2012-02-24T20:00:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13053 |
| I really don't know much about Libya! Syria has a rich history with quite a bit of water here and there, but I think it's had a growing population that was badly outstripping what they have. I'm trying to get up to speed on this situation quickly because I really don't know a lot, other than old history, but I do know that this has the potential to change just about everything. And it's a horror that no one has been able to stop so far. | 2012-02-24T18:42:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13049 |
| I think something did change because Western journalists seem to be getting in. That's only been since this became more of a civil war, with some territory not well controlled by the government. I can't imagine any leader, dictator or otherwise, shelling his own people like this either. This is way beyond anything we've seen in a long time, short of Saddam Hussein. |
2012-02-24T18:40:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13048 |
| Thanks, both of you! I really do believe this. I think the difference lately has been Secretary Clinton - apparently, she has done a fabulous job. We haven't gotten into any new wars or other actions without an awful lot of backing. | 2012-02-24T18:38:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13047 |
| Thanks. There are a lot of links that have more information - al Jezeera has been on this like no one in the West, possibly because they have more people in there. I really don't have much to add to them at this point, but I'm thinking this one through as we get more info. | 2012-02-24T18:36:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13046 |
| Yes, the asset price bubble and the credit bubble are very much one in the same. It all really started in the 1990s and moved on to spec housing. But it was all closely tied together. Our military spending is crippling us, and there has to be a way to cut back without leaving the whole planet rudderless. But we spend such a large share of GDP on military (4.8% compared to the world average 2.6%) that we are at a distinct disadvantage: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures I think it was about the same during the Cold War, but something tells me it's been creeping up lately. |
2012-02-23T01:15:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13024 |
| No one was really paying attention that had any influence or ability to get the word out in the mass media, no. This is news to me, too. As you know I've been looking for articles on debt cycles for a while so it's taken me time to find this. I had to look. | 2012-02-22T22:01:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13021 |
| Ha! I have been on a bit of a tear lately. But it's true. As for the kids chasing the shiny and new, well, a lot of adults do it, too. Though I wonder about them a bit more. :-) |
2012-02-22T20:07:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13019 |
| I don't think it was deliberate, but yes, the effect is one of slavery to debt. It makes "recovery" very difficult, if not impossible. | 2012-02-22T20:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13018 |
| It is amazing, isn't it? History explains much of what is going on. Taking a straight line between our past and today and projecting it out into the future is not a perfect predictor - but it is all we have. This explains the dynamics we are dealing with very well. 1980 is indeed a major inflection in many ways. It's not all Reagan - there is the rise of consumer credit, globalism, and many other forces that converge at that time. I do think that Reagan did some things well and some things poorly in the economy - but there was an attitude change that sunk in which generally got us to where we are today (in deep doo-doo economics, to paraphrase George HW Bush!). Optimistic? I try. :-) One thing about cycle analysis is that there are good times and bad. To everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under Heaven! :-) |
2012-02-22T17:59:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13014 |
| Thanks! The Mainstream Media doesn't really have the talent in place to understand this kind of thing, much less spend the amount of time it takes to lay it out in a form that people can digest. It is a complex subject. Without Hunt I would have never seen this, either, so time spent reading people like Mauldin (who is, sadly, far off the beaten path) is essential. I would like to have work in this area (hint!) but I have yet to find anyone who will pay me to interpret complex subjects in a form that can be read by many people. But it is what I enjoy and think I do best. |
2012-02-22T17:55:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13013 |
| Sorry, Dan, I made it up entirely. Don't tell me I just sold a fake pastry shop with a Hero's Journey tale, now ... :-) | 2012-02-20T22:32:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12970 |
| Ha! Yes, it can easily become over-blown and way too much. But this is how you do it. I should take on the fairy tale next - that's not used as much in advertising. :-) | 2012-02-20T22:31:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12969 |
| What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. Ecclesiastes (The Song of Solomon) 1:9 (NIV) Who am I to argue with Solomon? :-) Seriously, that is part of my point. People who do not learn from history will simply re-invent the wheel - probably in an inferior form, too. As for candidates, part of me wants to say that selling them is just like selling pastry, at least in this example. The main difference is that for a candidate you have to do more than sell, you have to build enthusiasm. It's the same except that for a candidate you have to be more personal, more intense, and more more. People would never believe in a Danish, but they need to believe in the woman up on the platform who will represent them. |
2012-02-20T18:27:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12965 |
| Thanks. But it is true - the more culturally well known a form is, the easier it is to use it to slip a message into someone's subconscious. I think you are right, the pastries are not from Denmark. Oh well. I should have done my research a bit better. :-) |
2012-02-20T18:23:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12964 |
| Well, if you had a blog you would probably spin this out over several posts, perhaps at least 8 - one expounding on each tidbit. Or, my fave, you could have a really short bio with more detail linked in for each part of the story. There are many ways to tell it - but the basic story is as old as humans themselves. It's important to know how it is structured if you're going to use it to maximum effect - or put a twist or two in. | 2012-02-20T04:44:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12950 |
| Oh, no, it should never be applied as a formula! But this ancient example can be a very useful guide to help organize a story in a way that is familiar to the reader right away. Joseph Campbell called it "The Hero of a Thousand Faces" because the form is flexible enough to be used to tell many quests, over and over again. Done well it is always fresh! | 2012-02-20T02:47:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12948 |
| Yes on all counts - this is a generational change, so by definition it will take time (and a fair amount of pain). What concerns me is that the next generation really does not have an implementable agenda - but I'm being challenged right now with some examples that almost add up to one, so it's not as bad as I thought. However, they still have a long way to go before they can issue specific, achievable demands to the previous generation and really move things along the way they need to! It is sad to me how tired the old generation has become, however. Much of what they achieved has been under assault for a long time (including contraception? Yeesh!) so they are very much in a siege mentality. That makes them naturally conservative (small "c") as they fight to preserve things the way they are in the face of the reactionary counter-charge. It cannot be called "progress" - and in the face of a rapidly changing world progress is not a luxury, but a necessity if we are to simply hold even in the long run. |
2012-02-17T21:24:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12904 |
| I was thinking about Carter - and also Woodrow Wilson. They are the times when the Democrats did seize on Republican mistakes but were not able to really capitalize on them. It's a possibly more interesting topic, but it didn't seem as relevant to this election. We will see, won't we? The left seems to me to be irrelevant because it has not controlled the national dialogue or agenda in a very long time. That may change if there is a strong movement, but I can't see it changing in 2012. I may be wrong - people may be able to organize much more quickly - but without leadership much stronger than we have now I can't see really crystallizing. Dayton is not a liberal, no. Neither is Obama. Nor Reid, nor really Pelosi. So what are they? I dunno. They don't articulate an agenda that adds up to any consistent political philosophy - and don't really try. Back to the Pragmatic Party? http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/24/the-pragmatic-party/ (a piece originally from 1999) |
2012-02-17T18:50:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12899 |
| I was really hoping someone would say, "Being Not-Republican is good enough!" I hope that's a good summary. :-) | 2012-02-17T18:44:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12898 |
| I think you are speaking for a lot of people. Thanks. Once you've been a Democrat for a while, though, you get used to it being mushy. :-) |
2012-02-17T18:43:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12897 |
| There is a link up there to a piece on the future of the Democrats: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/ I stand by some of the musings in that piece, even though there isn't a strong conclusion. The Democrats have to be the party that gets things done because, at its core, it centers on government as a counter-balance to economic forces when they become destructive - government has to work for people to believe in it and keep voting Democrat. What that winds up meaning is up for discussion, sure, but some of this goes far beyond ideology. |
2012-02-17T18:42:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12896 |
| There's going to be a lot of that. People not showing up often defines our system better than those who do show up. | 2012-02-17T18:37:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12895 |
| Occupy groups have a vision, but they refuse to have an agenda. It's very hard to get something done when you haven't articulated what that is. The lack of leadership is also going to be a big problem when it comes to implementing anything. That doesn't mean that the movement doesn't serve a purpose - but it is very limited and some other group has to take up the slack and make things happen. That should be the Democrats. Will they take the vision and turn it into an agenda to implement? So far ... not so good. |
2012-02-17T18:36:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12894 |
| Pay, thank you! I was trying to remember her campaign story, but I couldn't find it anywhere. I remembered something sorta like that as well, so maybe we aren't nuts, unlike .... well, let's not go there. :-) But I do think that the Hero's Journey as we know it does work well for women because it calls them to break out of their pre-assigned role and assume a leadership. It also describes why they are qualified - unique knowledge or inspiration or even guidance from a higher calling. I want to write a lot more about this but have very few examples. It did work for Joan of Arc, we can say that much. |
2012-02-16T13:56:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12859 |
| That could count, yes, but it would have to be developed more. I don't know anyone who knew who George Romney was who doesn't speak highly of him, so Dad is a big plus for Mitt. We hardly ever hear of the guy, however. | 2012-02-16T13:53:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12858 |
| There is a nearly infinite list! I also left out my own novel, Downriver - which is a Hero's Journey used to teach concepts from the Dao De Jing. | 2012-02-15T22:33:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12843 |
| It's more than standard - it's probably the oldest archetype in storytelling and certainly the most common. That's what gives it a lot of power - not the newness, but the familiarity that can only come from being truly classic. I'm using the concept very broadly here, but the advice to those who want to use the archetype is the same all around - get to know it before you modify it! |
2012-02-15T18:30:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12838 |
| Yes on women (see below). The candidates now do not have this, and Obama should re-invent his quest as an ongoing one - I'll get into that later. But he can't really ditch his "Chosen One" routine very easily because it would alienate those who got him into office. I think he can change it, however. Gingrich probably missed out on a neat Hero's Journey more than anyone else. For him to take that up he would have had to explain his disgrace at leaving the Speakership behind, which he should have done anyway. Putting it into a context - "I screwed up, and spent the next decade in the woods understanding my error" would have made him very powerful along with "I am now back to lead with the great knowledge I have learned to renew the cause again!". Just my few cents worth. |
2012-02-15T17:45:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12835 |
| Sheryl, I wish I had a lot more to say as well. There is a "Heroine's Journey" archetype, but it's not as strong and not very modern, really. However, I think the Hero's Journey archetype is not particularly gender-specific, at least in modern terms, and is something that women could adopt more. | 2012-02-15T17:41:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12834 |
| Yes, the Horatio Alger is a derivative of the Hero's Journey, filtered through Benjamen Franklin's autobiography. It is uniquely American for many reasons. Divine interference / inspiration can sometimes be simple magic (Harry Potter). Col. Sanders' "Secret Formula" is stressed to this day because it hints at that strongly - try saying "formula" without an image of "magic formula" attached to it. But this is a difficult concept in the modern world - even in "Star Wars" Lucas felt compelled to explain The Force away as a bunch of bacteria-like things called midichlorian. So that is often the first thing to go when adapting the Hero's Journey to a modern audience. |
2012-02-15T17:40:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12833 |
| I think it's only fair that I take a look at the Democrats right now, because the situation is almost the exact opposite. But that does not mean victory is in the works by any stretch - the coalition has to hold. Coalitions are hard to develop the energy necessary to get people to show up, the most important part of this. Downballot, what will happen? Hard to say. | 2012-02-14T19:22:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12806 |
| And it's up to Democrats who think that there is something seriously wrong with those who vote Republican consistently to explain themselves much better - and to be better. We're the ones who want to make the case that government can work, so we have to do it. A competitive system should make us all stronger, and I value good competition. I just hate losing so danged much. :-) And yes, I'm the first person in my family to call himself anything other than a Republican as far back as any of us know. We have fun political discussion, you know it. :-) |
2012-02-14T04:33:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12791 |
| You guys are all reminding me that we live in a time of great change, so a certain degree of chaos is to be expected. So ... here it is! "May we all live in interesting times". Is Obama ready to actually do something? I hope so. Larry Summers is long gone, so perhaps someone with some real bottom can get in there and talk about stuff like Restructuring and all the rest of the stuff we talk about here in Barataria! |
2012-02-13T22:11:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12784 |
| Excellent points all around. I think this nation is generally more diverse than it has been since WWII at least, but I'm not sure about that. So the idea that the Democrats are a big huge coalition is not surprising, nor is the fact that the Republican one was doomed to become more ... well, like the Democrats. But yes, this is not the first change in the parties in your lifetime (and mine, sort of, but I was a kid for most of that) so some "creative destruction" is likely to happen. Mitt Romney says it is a good thing, too! Oh, wait, that was when he was referring to other people's jobs. :-) Good post dressed up as a comment, tho. :-) |
2012-02-13T22:07:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12781 |
| Hey, the first hurdle I always have for Republicans is, "Can I imagine votoing for him/her?" In the case of McCain, the answer was solidly "Yes". I actually read his book, too - pretty interesting. This year, the only Republican I could say that for was Huntsman (actually, I could see voting for him over Obama even - but don't tell anyone!). good point on the Rainbow Coalition - it is kind of what we are. I still want more intellectual bottom to it, tho. In the end, we do have to stand for something pretty straightforward and easily described, IMHO. |
2012-02-13T22:02:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12780 |
| I have been a fan of Buddy Roehmer back when he was a Democrat. I have a Mardi Gras coin from when he became governor (88?). Great guy, deserves at least a hearing - got bupkiss. We do need real Republicans and a real Republican party. We could also use a real Democratic party, but I'll get on that later. We're just really complacent, which may be a harder problem to solve (if less spectacular at the end). |
2012-02-13T21:54:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12776 |
| Interesting point. This has been brewing since at least 2008 and the failure of the McCain campaign, which was generally not seen as "conservative" enough. That's where Palin comes in - an attempt to appeal to the conservative base and women at the same time. I guess the question that matters is whether the press really is portraying this differently or not. I think so, you think so, so perhaps that is indeed what has changed - it's all worn thin over time. Newt appears to be a dead issue by now, so if you were counting on him you may want to find something else. |
2012-02-13T20:33:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12772 |
| I completely agree, and could not have put it better! I do not want to take too much joy in the decline of the Republican party, but I have to take some in the decline of what Anna called "The Crazies". They are different from the vast majority of reasonable and intelligent Republicans. I want them to take over their party again - and if that means they wind up kicking Democrat butt then so be it! |
2012-02-13T19:13:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12770 |
| That has been correct, but things may be changing. However, with the Komen Foundation PR disaster along with contraception becoming an issue is an awful lot and will poltiicize / engage many women who otherwise would never care. A few more issues through the summer and we could see women voting 2:1 for a straight Democrat ticket. That's the problem I see for the Republicans at this point. But yes - I think keeping an eye on Women, Ohio, and Latinos should tell us where this election is going. So far it's more a question of turnout and enthusiasm, which is pretty low on both sides. That may change if women's basic rights appear to be under full assault. That's what's so poisonous about this for the right. |
2012-02-13T19:10:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12769 |
| That is the real goal here - to deal with what we should be dealing with rather than BS like Clint Eastwood or attempting to roll back contraception availability. But at some point we have to acknowledge why it's been so hard to deal with real issues. However, the Republican machine is very broken right now and I do think it's time to seize the opportunity and work towards real reform. | 2012-02-13T19:06:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12767 |
| Yes, we should know who we are dealing with by now. But .... they are usually so much more competent than they have been lately. It's laying things awfully bare (like this Winter, not last!). | 2012-02-13T19:04:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12766 |
| You are correct. Sorry for the error. | 2012-02-10T23:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12716 |
| An excellent point, thanks! I may yet try to make a poem of some kind about the Managed Depression. Reading Dr. Seuss carefully shows me that the hard part - maintaining a constant rhythm and rhyme - is not as essential as I thought, and breaks can be very powerful. I am learning and may be able to tackle some economics in poems. That's a challenge!
Once I built a railroad, made it run, Made it race against time. Once I built a railroad - now it's done. Brother, can you spare a dime? |
2012-02-10T20:18:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12711 |
| It very much stayed with me, too. I couldn't help but cry when I read it to my kids for the first time - it had been years, yet I knew it so well. I brought out my copy today to make sure I got the quote just right (the first one is also on my quotations page!) and so many memories came back. It means so much. To wreck it is a very personal affront. | 2012-02-10T20:16:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12710 |
| Thanks! I would do more of them if I had more time. It would be great to do one a month, at least, so I'll try to pick up the pace. I do think this could be something I could sell to an online magazine, but no one has bit yet (hint!). It certainly is an unusual thing for the 'net. |
2012-02-10T20:14:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12709 |
| I keep telling Hollyweird that I'm available, but no one calls. Perhaps I shouldn't spell their name that way, eh? :-) | 2012-02-10T20:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12708 |
| A great story - we are hard-wired to love language, and the more musical it is the more it resonates deep inside of us. Even in the womb? A bit surprising, but I can imagine it. Thanks, Jerry! | 2012-02-10T20:11:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12707 |
| Well, yes. That's pretty much where I'm coming from. I can't know everything about someone - what works for them, what doesn't, what they need in life and what they don't. If someone doesn't see things my way that's simply because I'm not them. As much as I appreciate liberal/democrat ideas, the reality is that we lose about half the time. Why is that? In part because we haven't solved the problems that really matter to people. One of them, I'm pretty sure, is the one above. If we can't get people jobs, what friggin' good are we? But I'm sure there are many more ways that we fail. Being insensitive to long cherished values doesn't help a bit, for one. So can we do a lot better? Of course we can - we can lose a lot less than we are. And I refuse to believe that about half the people are stupid or brainwashed or in some other way inferior to me. It's far more reasonable that "our side" has just done a lousy job for some reason - some reason most of us just don't understand. Look at that chart again and tell me why *anyone* in Ohio would have faith in the "system" when that has been going on for 10 years and no one has really said "Boo" about it. I think a lot of self-styled "Independents" would eagerly vote for the first Democrat they thought could reliably add 2 and 2 to get 4. They just haven't seen a lot of evidence that our team is capable of doing that. Why is that? Is our side particularly stupid? Probably not. We're just talking past a lot of people and seeing them where they live. So while I may not be able to talk to people on the "other side", though I might try sometimes, I will do my best to talk to "my side" and give a few pointers to people who at least really want to win, if not do the right thing. I've been accused by many people (usually the women in my life) of always standing "outside of myself" or something like that. Well, I'm not particularly selfish, I'd say, despite how popular selfishness is. But what you are thinking though right now is pretty much where I've been coming from these last five years or so. I try to meet the selfish world about halfway so I don't seem too weird and can get the message across, but you're where I tend to start from. Things look a little different when you're outside looking in on these issues, aren't they? People aren't dumb or duped - they have their reasons. Viva la Democracy. |
2012-02-09T03:57:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12673 |
| It's not all about Empire, at least it doesn't have to be. (I have a back post about nearly anything, ya know ... :-) ) But I do think that reconciling the images of empire and what it means to be British is very much what Doctor Who is very much about most of the time. | 2012-02-08T23:14:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12668 |
| Braaaaa-ziiiil ... when stars were entertaining June, We stood beneath an amber moon ,,, (I should work up a full parody, ya know!) I was thinking about this just last week, believe it or not. Why the Hell would anyone invest in a developed nation that doesn't seem to be going anywhere when you can put money into Brasil, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore ... hell, even India could be interesting. Now, if we could get people interested in Detroit, á la a Chrysler commercial, that would be more interesting. But something tells me that São Paulo is going to be far more enticing - and not just for the romance of it. |
2012-02-08T21:35:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12664 |
| Thank you, this will take some time to digest. What I can add is that back in 2000 the German economy faced much of what we did (the Depression was felt, at least in part, through the developed world). Back then there was a lot of streamlining and some "job sharing" where workers would voluntarily go to half-time and share one job rather than have layoffs. Much of what I see in this report in a quick skim deals with their unraveling the welfare state AND simultaneously working to bring full employment as much as deal with the 2008 downturn. I know that their overhead per employee is far lower than ours, which is what makes a lot of this possible - I still say that's point #1 for us to both get short-term job growth and speed up economic restructuring. But yes, a flexible labor force can be in the best interests of both employers and working families. Developing policies that make this possible are very critical, and Germany is way, way ahead of us on this. I will read the whole thing tonight, I hope. Thanks! As for China - so many things have to catch up with them. Start with demographics, add in a centrally planned economy, throw in chaos as they just passed the mark where a majority live in cities for the first time - yeah, they can't maintain this pace forever. |
2012-02-08T20:01:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12662 |
| A very, very good point. I hadn't thought of that at all. Thank you. But you can tell I'm suggesting tactics and themes for the election, yes. :-) | 2012-02-08T19:53:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12661 |
| Sheryl, the total swing was 63 for the Republicans: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2010 I was able to quickly dig up data on the Manufacturing Heartland and had these results for total swing to Republicans in 2010: OH 5 MI 2 PA 5 IN 2 WI 2 IL 4 TOTAL 20 That represents about a third of the nationwide swing (31%). The decline in manufacturing jobs, more heavily felt in the Manufacturing Heartland where they are a high percent of jobs and more heavily define the culture, has driven much of the swing in Congress. It's worth noting that these states represent 19% of the total population, meaning that their influence on the swing is 64% bigger than if the swing that year was evenly distributed everywhere. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population |
2012-02-08T18:20:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12656 |
| First, my apologies for the lack of a zero baseline - much as I love the graphs generated at the St Louis Fed, the inability to impose a real zero on them is a huge failing. I've written to them asking for at least the option and not had a response. I use them anyway because the source is so authoritative. As for the rest - YES! The Dems were given a chance and did not deliver. Granted, they weren't given a lot of time, but seeing as there was little progress and no one was actually focusing on the problem I don't blame Ohio for giving up early. I honestly believe that they will keep doing the same thing until something changes. The question is - has anything really changed? You're clearly skeptical that anything is changing and I don't blame you. I'm about halfway down the same road myself. But if there are jobs being created, especially in manufacturing, it may seem like something is going right even if the leadership really isn't there to push it hard. We'll see what they think in Ohio come November. And the rest of the nation, too. |
2012-02-08T18:10:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12655 |
| Thanks. That's what I think this election is going to be about - more or less what the last several have been about in Ohio, except even moreso nationwide. | 2012-02-08T18:06:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12654 |
| I don't like assigning motives to people and groups that I don't know well, so I hate saying that about the Republicans. But it sure looks like that's what they are doing, and a majority of Americans believe it's true. That has to bite them in the butt here, especially if things are turning around and they keep whining like they haven't. | 2012-02-07T22:12:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12632 |
| I never commented on the ECB raising rates because, frankly, I never understood it. All the signs - slow growth, sovereign debt issues, bank deleveraging - all pointed to cheap money as the best way out. There had to be some internal politics (read: German meddling) that caused that, IMHO. We have had the right structure in place and the right people to handle this Depression about as well as one could be. The only thing we've been missing is the sense of urgency - which would come if we focused more on people than money. But our government has managed the money pretty well all in all, I'd say. As for foreign policy, it's funny how Europe got that together so well. I think the outside threats are pretty clear so it's not too amazing - and most of the nations really don't want to spend more on military than they have to so coordination fills in gaps nicely. Still, it's come along very well. There is a Europe in our future, and I think there is most likely a Euro as well. They just have to get real and see that it's time to open a joint checking account. :-) |
2012-02-07T22:09:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12631 |
| Jack, that is the kind of thing I want to hear as well. I'm always interested in confirming these numbers because there is always good reason for skepticism. This is real and it's backed up by a lot of things. Thank you. Now - let's all contemplate for a moment that we're pretty sure that job growth is leading economic growth. To me, this confirms at the very least that things are different this time - and probably confirms that this is more of a Depression (ie, major generational economic change) than an ordinary Recession. |
2012-02-06T21:48:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12626 |
| I'm excited for the Democrats largely because this could spark the Renaissance of progressive thinking (and a generational change) that I've been expecting for over a decade now. I think it's very important for real "progress" to occur. | 2012-02-06T21:45:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12625 |
| I can see how it seems suspicious, but keep in mind that this has been trending for a very long time and it is backed up by data from payroll processor ADP. Their numbers vary up and down a bit each month but the aggregate is about the same all in all. The headline unemployment rate is indeed a lot of fudge and really should not be used (unless you have to relate to someone else's work, which happens). But this figure, total jobs, is pretty golden and hard to fudge. I am quite sure it is real and it even makes sense. |
2012-02-06T19:03:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12621 |
| I don't know why, but you reminded me of this poll showing that a majority of independents think the Republicans are deliberately sabotaging the Obama administration and economy: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/independents-and-moderates-agree-gop-deliberately-sabotaging-obamas-jobs-policies/2011/11/07/gIQAPMfSvM_blog.html I think there is a lot of skepticism out there, and nearly all of it is healthy. People aren't taking the BS they used to. I just want to see this lead to something good. |
2012-02-06T17:10:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12618 |
| Thanks. That is a point I have been thinking about a lot lately, but to expound on it I'd need some more data than I have right now. I was thinking about this as part of a small eBook (or eBook series) on the economy and politics that would put a lot of the Barataria arguments together in one place. There is a bit of a hole here, but I think it's very true that in a truly liquid market is is impossible to make distinctions between capital and ordinary money. | 2012-02-06T17:07:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12617 |
| If we get into a long-term regime of this things will have to change. One example of a world without interest is Arab Banking, based on the prohibition against interest in the Koran. They form something more like a business partnership for nearly everything - I have no idea how home loans work, however. Our move towards venture capital is more or less along the same lines. Of course, ordinary credit is still very important, but I think we've seen this trend coming for a long time the more I think about it. No idea what it could mean for amortization - excellent question! You're the accountant, yes? :-) But we'd have to be in a long-term regime of zero to negative interest before we have to worry about that. We'll see if that is in the cards. The concentration of wealth has led us to some very bizarre breakdowns in the Middle-Class system we built up over the years. |
2012-02-05T02:23:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12593 |
| The short answer is that they hold an auction. The long answer can be found on the Treasury website. The effective rate is determined by how much people pay for a T-Bill that comes into the auction with a face value of the bond and a set payment schedule. To make it come out negative, they'd have to offer the bonds with a face value and a net payment in from the potential investors, which would be very strange. It has to be done deliberately up front. | 2012-02-04T05:45:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12587 |
| If it functions only as a tax, I am very much for it. There seem to be so many potential ramifications here that it's worth talking through at great length before we "go there". I think the Treasury feels the same way, too, which is rather wise of them. Gold? Feh. It might stay about where it is for a while, but with decent job growth, a declining ^VIX, and some sense of confidence returning it really can only go down (unless, of course, Europe blows up - always have to have that caveat). I see your point on defense spending - cutting it too rapidly would cause problems. However, cutting mostly overseas won't affect our economy. I think there are ways to show Iran we mean business (or, at least, Israel does, ahem!) and dramatically reduce our overseas deployment. That is what I read Obama as wanting to do, and I support it. But I understand that cutting military now is dangerous, at least without some other job creating spending in other areas. I still think there are ways that we can speed up the economic Reform with strategic government spending which would be far more effective than what now goes into Defense. |
2012-02-03T23:13:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12583 |
| Thanks. Yes, negative *real* rates have happened quite a lot, but negative *nominal* rates are at least extremely rare - and I don't know of any incidents that were not quick flukes but were actual policy of some kind. Any examples are appreciated because if we have some guide as to how this has worked before we can make some guesses as to how it might work today. Hopefully. :-) I also agree that assigning a negative value to capital is a truly stunning development and worth looking at in far more depth. As you know, I have been taking on various aspects of "Supply-Side" (ie, tax and other policies designed to create more/bigger pools of capital) and "Socialized Risk" - both are linked to up in there somewhere. You're right to think about the devaluation of labor (part of high unemployment) and the true meaning of a "Depression" at this point in time. There is a LOT to think about here. I do intend to keep after it. I really want to see the January jobs report that JUST NOW came out in some detail - something strange is going on and we are indeed creating jobs. Where/why/how/what? |
2012-02-03T20:19:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12580 |
| Having gotten to know you a bit, Jim, I have to say that this is a pretty big statement from you in particular. I wonder how many people are starting to believe, as you have, that things are different enough to warrant very different action than you've been in favor of before. I applaud your openness, BTW. | 2012-02-03T20:11:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12579 |
| Yes on all counts. If we are going to pursue a policy of lower taxes on investment income (although such a policy is looking stupider all the time) the LEAST we can do is tax the bejayzus out of idle capital. But the flight overseas to avoid such taxes is a very real possibility these days given how incredibly liquid everything is. Not sure how to do it effectively, to be honest. Negative interest may be the only tool we have to make investment happen. | 2012-02-03T20:09:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12578 |
| I guess there have been spots of slightly negative rates on some overnight charges - I do remember Japan going slightly negative briefly in the 90s, for example. But it's never been more than a quick fluke to my mind. Just because I haven't heard of it doesn't mean it hasn't happened, tho, so I'm always game for a good example. | 2012-02-03T20:06:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12577 |
| Sorry I made things hard on you, but this has to be thunk out a lot before anyone can even pretend to grasp it. There is just way too much to this to summarize in 800 words or less. Please, think about it - and let us all know if you come up with something else. This is totally uncharted territory and the greatest minds of this and every other time have not gone here. Scary stuff, no? | 2012-02-03T17:40:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12571 |
| Yes to everything! I can't find an example of this historically. The ask.com page on interest says, "I cannot imagine nominal interest rates ever going negative," which is a wonderful confession the author probably never thought would be important. | 2012-02-03T17:38:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12570 |
| Brandl was a great guy, knew him as Dean of Humphrey. And yes, he was definitely a free-market Democrat. I hope there are a lot of us still out there (think so, always making sure). I have a lot of faith in our Fed and do think that they are doing everything they can. But things do go badly as we move through badly charted territory. Having a Congress that seems to want to manage supply-side and a Fed that seems eager to pump demand is just about exactly bass-ackwards, IMHO. |
2012-02-02T01:41:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12548 |
| Thanks. I'd call us a dysfunctional family, but that seems like an insult to the dysfunctional. And families. :-) | 2012-02-01T19:54:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/01/drugs/#comment-12543 |
| It really has gotten stranger all the time, hasn't it? The hypocrisy of "medical marijuana" is pretty strange, too. Might as well just legalize it rather than go through this nonsense. | 2012-02-01T19:53:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/01/drugs/#comment-12542 |
| Thanks for the correction and links. I read about the Colorado amendment a bit too quickly. The support for it does seem quite strong, unlike California, so there may be a state issuing a direct challenge to the Feds. I have no idea how the arguments will go on that topic. | 2012-02-01T19:52:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/01/drugs/#comment-12541 |
| Thank you, that's what I'm looking for. I'm not calling for anything here because I have no way to look at the whole topic that makes much sense to me - but the increase in caffeine consumption and purity of what is available is astonishing. I guess to me any policy has to start with education - do people know that 500mg of caffeine can kill them? After that, definition of real public threats is very important, such as how alcohol impairs driving ability. Then I think we get to policy on addiction for those who have developed a problem, and the Portuguese model looks very interesting. But what should be illegal and/or how it is enforced still escapes me at this point. I don't see why marijuana should be illegal, but I can't imagine cocaine being legal somehow - and I really can't justify that without a better framework for thinking this through. |
2012-02-01T17:34:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/01/drugs/#comment-12537 |
| Just as a follow-up - I kind of forgot this piece from last August on the Dollar Standard, why it's a bad thing, and why it's even worse to end it quickly: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/ It's a complex subject but it's vital that we get a handle on it (for once). |
2012-01-30T22:07:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12521 |
| I don't entirely disagree. Just printing a few more Euros would reflate things rather naturally, even if it would be tough on banks. And yes, the enormous military we have is clearly at least in part about defending the Dollar Standard. Not a pretty thing. | 2012-01-30T21:54:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12520 |
| The term "haircut" is used to describe a partial default, since they are usually a reorganization of debt with a small default - say, 10% - that represents "a little off the top". The term is a cliché that has absolutely no business being used around a 70% default. Anyone who uses this term to describe the Greek restructuring should be immediately ignored, IMHO. There is still a chance that the world financial system could collapse, yes. That is exactly what the Eurozone is trying to avoid here. I think it's likely we'll keep "muddling through", as Mauldin puts it, but hopefully sentiment will turn a bit in the short term. That's about all we can hope for. |
2012-01-30T18:20:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12517 |
| Once again, I'm not trying to be optimistic but to show that there is a way out of this. The Euro crisis all depends on how it is received - and I don't think trust is very high so it may take a very long time to sink in even if it is solved. What I expect is that a small sense of relief might get those with big piles of money sitting in the Federal Reserve accounts to invest in the US and get us moving again. Long term, the only solution is for the US Dollar to lose its standing as the world currency. That will be very painful, even if a way is found to do it gradually. The IMF is working on this so there is, once again, a way out. But it will not be easy. This crisis just highlights the terrible downside of ruling the world as we do - it means we have trouble keeping our own workforce employed. That means we slowly rot from within, as we have been doing. I hope no one sees that analysis as "optimistic". |
2012-01-30T18:08:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12514 |
| Sorry, I think wordpress has been eating them lately. Thanks for the comment, I do want to get this story out into the world and that means boiling it down to what is important. While about half of Barataria readers are outside the US, my main focus is on US readers (sorry!) because we have so much to learn in order to be better citizens. There are some hard choices to be made - choices masked by a lot of noise and BS that has been distracting us. The Euro sovereign debt issue is one distraction but, told a different way, actually highlights the main problem for us. Hope people follow some of the links up there because this is a summary of past comments in many ways - some of it won't make sense to people or have hit their radar before (such as the 8M manufacturing jobs lost in the last decade!). |
2012-01-30T18:05:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12513 |
| Thanks! :-) | 2012-01-27T23:10:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/27/no-way/#comment-12471 |
| Very good point, thanks. The real problem is that ordinary people were never trusted to be part of the decision making process. | 2012-01-27T23:10:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/27/no-way/#comment-12470 |
| I think you are right that trust in traditional sources of news has gone pretty far south, and that's a lot of what we see. Thinking out loud, working through it, does seem to be part of what is happening. Most of the people I talk to go between being very sure of a few things and then very unsure about details, solutions, or the like. I hope I portrayed that here. | 2012-01-27T17:59:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/27/no-way/#comment-12465 |
| Thanks! Perhaps it is just more news that is bewildering people, but the tendency to talk about it more has fascinated me. Some of this used to be "impolite" or off limits, but it isn't any longer. I think people realize that there are big changes happening that they don't necessarily understand - but need to, at least in part. I enjoy doing what I can to explain things. | 2012-01-27T17:57:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/27/no-way/#comment-12464 |
| Yes, we absolutely need a real dialogue of some kind of health care. How anyone can claim to be pro-business (big or small) and in any way support the current system of sticking employers with the health care tab is far beyond my ability to fathom. Putting Medicare reform in with that is only logical, so there's something for both parties to give on - and it just has to happen. Before the joke primaries, however, we had the joke SuperCommittee - a gag I fell for as much as anyone. I really thought they'd at least never get out of the promises after the big show. Would there be a deal? Recisssion? Some other process? No, the answer was ... nothing. Nada. Nichts. Bupkiss. Something has to radically change. It has been years since the US Congress even passed a real budget and that's simply unforgivable. |
2012-01-26T17:27:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12445 |
| Thanks, and excellent point. If the 1968 analogy was to hold we should have a Wallace by now - thankfully, we don't. Maybe Paul is the Wallace of our time, which is to say that we're not as bad off but someone from the far outside with a relatively simple and pure message has to make a showing. | 2012-01-25T22:21:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12426 |
| I think a lot of Republicans are showing some level of spine and protesting the only way they can. Perhaps the rank and file are much smarter than the people running things these days - who seem to be generally the Brodkorb-types of the world who whine the loudest and make everything as crazy as possible. 100% Fact-Free Politics sounds like a fake product label waiting to be made .... excellent tag, thanks. It's where we've been for far too long. Hard to imagine getting out of this mess without getting past this nonsense, either. |
2012-01-25T22:17:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12425 |
| Another joke (that no one will get) is that Gingrich isn't really the biggest prick to ever run for President, so perhaps South Carolina only voted for him because John C Calhoun is dead. It's not much, I admit. I have no problem with people who support Romney and I wish you well. If you can save help save a major political party from purgatory you certainly have my blessing. But you have to allow me at least a little schadenfreude if it doesn't work out - and I don't say that lightly because I really hate most of the German phrases that are used in popular vocabulary as clichés (for example, I never say zeitgeist). But you point out well that this has happened to Democrats many times and we have a spotty record of pulling it together in the end. I have been envious of the Republican ability to heal wounds (which seems to, in part, include promising the insurgent second-placer the nod in 4 years). It probably had to break down someday, and that appears to be now. Between the Tea Pary, the Christians, the Paulite Libertarians, and the establishment there are a LOT of forces to pull together in the end. If only we Democrats really had our act together - this could start a few decades of left wing momentum. Ah, there is still time. | 2012-01-25T22:13:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12424 |
| I want to make fun of the guy, but he's so awful it's hard. The only joke I have so far is that we should have some pity for him - it must be hard to keep your pants on when your balls are that big. | 2012-01-25T20:38:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12421 |
| There is so much more I could have said in this piece, but in the interest of unity and brevity I left them out. The most important to me is the observation that my 15 year old daughter made - that Gingrich is a lot like Nixon, the man who kept coming back despite a terrible personality flaw. Gingrich's flaw is the exact opposite of Nixon's - too much self-confidence versus not enough - but the effect is remarkably similar. And ... he keeps coming back again and again. Why? Is it really that bad that Gingrich is looking like a good idea? I know things were very bad in 1968, so the fact that Nixon looked like a good idea isn't totally surprising in hindsight ... but can anyone really tell us that Gingrich looks like anything other than an overblown buffoon? I really don't get this. But we wound up with Nixon once, too. History doesn't repeat, but it sure can rhyme like a slam poet on a devastating tear. |
2012-01-25T18:18:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12416 |
| I think Romney could be a decent President, actually, but I prefer Obama. I don't know why people dislike him so much, to be honest. Mormon? Boring? Rich? Wishy-washy? There are a lot of little things that seem to add up to a lot of nothing. | 2012-01-25T18:11:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12415 |
| I would think that's true, but as a guy I didn't want to comment. Thanks! | 2012-01-25T18:09:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12414 |
| Yes, it could be that bad. It's what happens down the ticket (as George Will wondered) that makes it interesting. | 2012-01-25T18:08:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12413 |
| Yes, this is cynical. A functioning Republican Party is a good thing because it keeps us honest - but I can't say we've had such a beast in a while. It's all been electoral games and playground rules. So if this is what it takes to break things up, well, let's get through it and move on! | 2012-01-25T18:08:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12412 |
| It is true that the two parties thought they might like this situation, at least for their own reasons. But it has become clear to the right that unlimited money means that they have no control over their own people and thus their own party. This is not what they thought they were getting, not at all. | 2012-01-24T22:50:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12396 |
| I like that joke. :-) The dissent by James Nelson in Montana concluded by saying that "the death penalty and hell are reserved for natural persons". :-) Seriously, tho, I think everything has to be on the table and something has to be done fast. I think if Congress got its act totally together the Supremes might let a lot slide by. All the same, any challenge would not be decided until long after this election. |
2012-01-23T22:41:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12373 |
| I'm for considering that and any other option at this point. | 2012-01-23T22:38:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12372 |
| Seems to be a popular sentiment. So, what are we gonna do about it? A real plan of action is probably called for if we're going to get anywhere. People can occupy whatever they want, but without an agenda there isn't anything to make happen. | 2012-01-23T21:42:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12369 |
| I'm not making excuses for them .... well, maybe I am, but the actual decision does outline carefully what the Court thinks is OK. We didn't even enact that, which is where the chaos comes from. I don't know if Montana can force a reconsideration, but I applaud their bravery. I hope it catches on. One thing we have to be very careful about as another anniversary - the 40th of Roe v. Wade approaches - is that forcing a remedy to a bad Supreme Court decision we do not start some kind of precedent that the Supremes' decisions can be annulled by other action. The rule of law is pretty important, and there are many things we can lose if we aren't careful. | 2012-01-23T21:41:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12368 |
| You sound like my Dad. What I always tell him is that I'm actually OK with term limits, but I want major redistricting reform first. And, of course, some kind of campaign finance reform. If the price of Republican support for this is term limits, then so be it. | 2012-01-23T21:37:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12367 |
| Nope. Not at all. The result has been complete chaos, IMHO. | 2012-01-23T21:35:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12366 |
| Excellent point! This is totally embedded in our credit culture at this point. People will go to great lengths just to make sure they have access to a lot of debt - which, I would say, is access to a lot of problems (or even slavery). And that is how we run businesses and the nation and just about everything. The adults who had to content with the Great Depression of 1929 would be appalled that we learned so little from them. | 2012-01-20T22:53:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12299 |
| Thanks, that's just what I need. But you know what I mean about how cyclical these things are better than most - especially since we both have houses that date from the Depression of 1857 (what, like 3 Depressions ago, depending on how you count). I don't think that many people really "get" this - and I hope the explanation as to why we have these ancient "supercycles" makes sense. So how do we package it up in a way that doesn't sound crazy (like some History Channel Ancient Alien show or something)? As for not being a Texan, I'm happy for that. :-) But this illustrates my point about the heritage of North Americans - when the going gets tough, the tough get up and leave. Seriously, we have a long history of moving on to find opportunity. I don't understand why would expect anything different from our North American brothers and sisters who speak Spanish, French, Navajo, or whatever. |
2012-01-20T22:51:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12298 |
| Reagan was a big part of what went wrong, yes, but it started before him. Stories are essential moving the truth from our heads to our guts - I think most people can understand intellectually what this is about, but being able to react to what it means is another problem entirely. | 2012-01-20T19:37:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12294 |
| That's where I start - it's never different this time, no matter how much people insist that it is. I don't know how to get that story into the guts of the young people who will have to deal with this and make their own way. | 2012-01-20T19:36:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12293 |
| Dan, Perot had a lot to say on a number of topics. I'm thinking about what he said on NAFTA, for example, which I think had to happen all the same but did appear to go down much more like he said than I'd like. Your example of the automobile is important - some level of competition internationally is absolutely critical - but when does it go over the line and threaten our own ability to survive? We've been through a GM bankruptcy now that looks somewhat inevitable given how bad things were back in the 80s - but it took 25 years to happen. |
2012-01-20T19:35:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12292 |
| Yes, that's what I mean. I'm looking for ideas and chewing this up a bit to try to think about how the Really Big Picture can get into people's heads for once. There are implications that are vast, but it's probably best to not be distracted by them. I'm working on it. May need to write a book of some kind. | 2012-01-20T19:32:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12291 |
| And sometimes you fight chickens with chickens, but that's a whole 'nuther South Carolina tradition we won't go into. It's far from ideal, but it's what we have right now. It may even be working. | 2012-01-18T22:48:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12246 |
| I'm sure there is one. The Cowpens isn't a site I've visited, and it has been a long time since I have been to SC. In fact, the last time I was there they still had mini-bottles in every bar (which I understand they repealed a while ago). | 2012-01-18T22:47:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12245 |
| True. I should ask some of my Republican friends what they think. It is making their whole process look terrible - but, then again, all the Republican candidates have had SuperPACs that have behaved very badly. | 2012-01-18T22:46:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12244 |
| I realize this is embarrassing, but it has to be done. It does seem like an insult to people in Syria, for example, who are dying to have even a little of what we are destroying. But this has to be done, IMHO. | 2012-01-18T22:44:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12243 |
| We will know on Saturday night! | 2012-01-18T22:43:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12242 |
| Yes, the lack of leadership at all levels - business, politics, everything - is very pathetic. It's all around the Developed World, too. | 2012-01-17T22:50:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12216 |
| It will probably come back yet. It is needed. | 2012-01-16T21:01:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12194 |
| Thanks! I think that is the real problem - control. In order to challenge the way things are we need different skills than the usual controlling people to keep them in line that is usually practiced, IMHO. | 2012-01-16T21:00:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12193 |
| Yes, there is a writer's craft involved in this, but in the end it's performance art. The writers on that show were very skilled at this craft (possibly too much so, since it doesn't really happen that much in real life). | 2012-01-16T20:59:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12192 |
| Thanks. It is a craft and anyone can learn it if they want to. I wish more people would! | 2012-01-16T20:58:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12191 |
| Thanks, Jan - been a while since you stopped by! Happy MLK Day! | 2012-01-16T20:57:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12190 |
| It would be fun if he did it, yes. But he can't get the Repub nomination right now (missed a lot of deadlines) and I don't see any of this working as an independent. But .... who knows? | 2012-01-15T22:15:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12162 |
| I do, too! :-) | 2012-01-13T21:26:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12130 |
| I think that humor is the way we'll get control over it. The Emperor has not clothes and he's out of shape. Let's point and laugh for a bit, and then get him the Hell out of there! | 2012-01-13T21:25:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12129 |
| Interesting way to look at it. I guess if you value truth in your leaders, or at least a dose of reality, why not? And those are good values. :-) | 2012-01-13T21:22:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12128 |
| The way we choose a President is so absurd, however. I agree it should be serious, but I don't think it has been for a long time. | 2012-01-13T21:21:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12127 |
| Amen. I'm with you on this one. | 2012-01-13T21:20:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12126 |
| Geographically you're certainly right. The deal in Ohio is more than just jobs - it could well be retraining and/or the return of the manufacturing jobs they lost. I dug out data on Ohio specifically at the St Louis Fed, and their job loss has been hugely in manufacturing: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=53254&category_id=0 (I save the graphs I like, what can I say?) They lost 500k jobs total since 2001, never really gaining anything back between the two official "recessions" of 2001 and 2008. 370k of them were in manufacturing alone! This explains why they switch parties so often - they keep voting against whoever is in power. What makes them a swing state is that they got hammered and aren't making the ground back at all. The mild upswing in 2011 will have to accelerate before Ohio will feel comfortable, I'm sure, so I would say that if you want to see the Buckeye state feel good about Obama you should look for about 300k jobs there in the next 10 months - ideally in manufacturing. |
2012-01-12T05:49:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12071 |
| I guess I don't necessarily want to sound optimistic, but rather lay out the terms for while we see not only that this is real (ie, it continues at least as strong) as well as what's likely to be the political patter in the coming year. I know, people don't get their economic news from sources that are willing to describe this in terms outside of what they already know, so they are terribly crippled when it comes to unusual (not new!) situations like this. I'm not a fan of Krugman, but only because I think there are big investments the Feds can make in both jobs and, especially, restructuring - but we can also throw away a lot of money if we're not careful. I'm not a fan of simple stimulus for the sake of it, but instead carefully designed efforts and easing the restructuring that has been allowed to languish for a solid decade. This may seem like a quibble, and outside the Left it probably is, but I think it's very important. |
2012-01-12T05:43:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12070 |
| That seems fair. What convinced me that it had to be real was when ADP (a private payroll processing company) consistently verified the numbers from BLS. They weren't all that close at the start of 2011, and both were scrambling to find out why. We then had revisions up for the first time since the start of the Depression. That says to me that they had trouble finding the new jobs, which is just what we would expect in a major restructuring. So between the independent verification, the scramble to conform, and the small but real skill gap I think we are seeing what we should expect when the foundation of an actual recovery is finally in place. Note that I'm not calling this a real "recovery" in the Postwar Post-Recession sense at all. This is different. | 2012-01-11T20:28:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12057 |
| I understand. If someone had said in August, "Relax, it'll look OK by January" I would not have believed them. It's not exciting job growth, but it's something. The economy itself is still very weak and could see a reversal from any one of a number of external factors - the most obvious coming from Europe, but we can't ignore a home-grown meltdown like JP Morgan being heavily implicated in the MF Global debacle (I almost wrote about this today - but give it another week to unfold some more). Should you be skeptical? I don't blame you at all. I'm looking for reasons why this could be turning around because it seems to be adding up. But it is always worth keeping your eyes open at the very least. I'm laying out just what would have to happen for us to get 'er back to even before the election - and believably so. We'll see. |
2012-01-11T20:04:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12055 |
| Anna, I think you have it here. This had to come sometime - and it's not as though it is so strong that it really does look like someone is goosing things. We still don't know exactly where the new jobs are coming from, but they appear to be under SIC category "Professional and Managerial" predominantly - which is to say that people are forming consultancy and service companies. This only makes sense since their benefits are running out or they are young and never had any - people have to eat. Jobs had to be created somehow eventually just for that reason. Rather than just say it's real, as I have, I think it makes sense to offer an experiment that says, "Here is how you can be sure it is real as we go forward". That's about all any of us can do, IMHO. |
2012-01-11T18:39:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12052 |
| Jim, I was slow to accept the new job growth for a lot of reasons, but it does appear to be real and ongoing. Yes, the timing is pretty strange but there's always the chance we'll greatly exceed the 1.6M and it won't be a buzzer-beater (good term!) heading into the election. | 2012-01-11T18:36:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12051 |
| That's my experience, too. People I know are finding work. I think I might step up the real-job search soon, too. | 2012-01-10T22:01:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/#comment-12032 |
| If you think that the job growth is faked for the election year, I don't think that is the case. Remember, these are not just government stats but they are verified by ADP (a payroll processor). It has been accelerating a bit since July, and we've added over 650k jobs since then - so it's been going on for a while. It's real. But it doesn't match up with real (inflation adjusted) increases in GDP, which are still pretty anemic. I admit this. Either it's a fake (which I really doubt now) or there is something unusual happening. I'm presenting the case for the latter, which I do believe now. It's not like job growth is especially strong, but it is stronger than we should expect in this rather weak economy. |
2012-01-10T01:10:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/#comment-12008 |
| Yes, that is what I think may be happening. There is little doubt in my mind that job growth is ahead of the total economy, at least in traditional "recovery" terms. That alone is very strange - but it may not be unreasonable at all. | 2012-01-09T20:08:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/#comment-12004 |
| Yes, you have it. We should not be growing jobs at the rate we are - so I asked why would this be happening. I am convinced it's real (took a few months) but it defies explanation. I realized that we have been lagging for a decade, so that might well explain it. And it does. But this is totally backwards from what anyone would expect, so we it's worth being a bit circumspect. But .... we don't have Depressions like this all the time, so why would things be the same as always? If there's one thing I learned through this process it's that Conventional Wisdom has not explained very much. I think that's still going on right now. Jobs leading the restructuring / recovery? Why not? |
2012-01-09T18:10:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/#comment-12000 |
| The Katrina analogy is a good one. Getting out of the world means more responsibility with our allies, so yes, we have to do that. | 2012-01-06T23:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/06/good-news-or-bad/#comment-11950 |
| Defense cuts on the order of $300B a year are definitely called for IMHO, but we'll see what is really proposed. Europe is a real problem that continues to fester and I'll stay on top of it - but there isn't a lot of useful news now that the problem appears to have turned from soveriegn debt to the murky world of banks. This could be terminal, yes, but it's not clear to me that it's a systemic failure across Europe. The collapse of a few small banks might actually help speed the integration and reform needed, much like MF Global's collapse here had little collateral damage but a big boost for those of us calling for reform. But yes, I agree that Europe has at least the potential to totally swamp what is actually some positive news on jobs here in the USofA. I want to be optimistic but really can't be. This will either work slowly or fail spectacularly, IMHO. |
2012-01-06T18:54:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/06/good-news-or-bad/#comment-11945 |
| Funny you should call me an optimist - back when I was just about the only person calling this a Depression (that was 2008 or so) people called me a permabear. My argument, that this is a Depression but we can manage it if we open our eyes, was seen as negative. I think you're closer to describing me than people were back then. :-) As for a war with China, what Obama is proposing appears to be a re-set back to early 2001 thinking. Remember when our spy plane was shot down by China? The reason we were at it then and will be in the future is that our allies and potential allies in the area demand it. They are scared of China and want a counter-balance. That does not mean it will come to war, and I think the Chinese expect us to take the position we're taking. I'm not too worried about that, at least in the short term. Excellent article on it, BTW: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/turning-the-page-on-iraq-and-afghanistan-obama-shifts-focus-to-asian-security-threats/2012/01/06/gIQAMKmOeP_story.html I'll talk more about this as we get more details - I think Baratarians in general could do a good job figuring out what is important in the Defense proposal(s) as they come out. Europe? I really don't know anymore. See below. :-) |
2012-01-06T18:50:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/06/good-news-or-bad/#comment-11944 |
| I honestly don't know what to make of Europe right now - they are so close to the brink and yet so casual about it. I think they are expecting us to bail them out. But if we don't, what will happen to us? Doesn't seem good no matter what. And there is momentum right now, it just has to pick up a lot more steam before it's anything really good. | 2012-01-06T18:17:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/06/good-news-or-bad/#comment-11941 |
| Well said, thank you. I do not want "majority rule" all the time for everything, but the needs of a community to work together cannot be ignored either. There is a yin and yang to everything. | 2012-01-05T19:37:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11930 |
| That is a good addition. Libertarianism has its appeal, but there is reality to contend with as well. What I like about Paul is that he gets us to think - but what I don't like are many of his conclusions. This is a very cold example of one of them. Was it a big government intrusion? Sure, but it had to happen. Good to do it with our eyes open - but it had to be done. | 2012-01-05T19:35:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11929 |
| Thanks. It's a bit more personal than I usually do, but when something happens to illustrate a big problem I'm usually inspired. | 2012-01-05T19:32:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11928 |
| And there she is! I'll vouch for Liz on this point - until it happens to you, you have no idea how you'll respond. She's been very strong through all this but it's very exhausting to be in constant pain. | 2012-01-05T19:31:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11927 |
| Sounds like a situation very similar to what Liz is dealing with, although I think she'd go for a permanent solution if it was clear. It is a matter of doing what pain clinic teach, which is how to manage the pain rather than just pop more pills. There are a lot of skills and techniques involved, as John told us, and I'll let everyone know as we learn more. |
2012-01-05T02:26:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11914 |
| I was hoping to hear more people offer solutions and talk about their own experiences when I wrote this. Maybe with time we'll have more. | 2012-01-05T02:24:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11913 |
| I think they are awfully quick to hand people potentially dangerous drugs and do a terrible job explaining the risks. People in pain are not necessarily thinking all that clearly so it's hard to tell people to be careful - but they don't really seem to try anyway. Generally the real solution will come with the patients / consumers, but I think the doctors have some obligation here as well. | 2012-01-04T20:37:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11907 |
| Yes, girlfriend, but I hate that term (sounds rather juvenile to me!). She's doing OK, but what we learned from John might help her a lot. | 2012-01-04T20:35:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11906 |
| It was eating comments earlier - sorry! | 2012-01-04T20:34:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11905 |
| Thanks! But ... yes, there's a lot more to it than we see on the surface. I agree that the Obama people are interested in Reform, but they aren't pushing it nearly hard enough. I think that's the ticket right now - the first party to successfully claim they are the party of reform will be in power for the next 20 years. If we fail to create any such party / faction, I agree that a lot of pain will result for a lot of reasons - one of them the rise of people like the Paul faction. I do think that the Paul people have a lot to add to the debate, but generally I don't want them to have a lot of power. The problem that I see is that we're still fighting along very narrow left/right lines and need to open things up a lot, which Paulites would do. |
2012-01-03T17:16:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11890 |
| That would be logical, yes, but I think that perhaps some of the comentators here were very wise in pointing out that they are afraid of his message. They could be right. | 2012-01-03T17:12:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11889 |
| Hey, we have one supporter here! We should sit down and have a long chat sometime - we'd have a lot to fight about, but it's the fun kind of fight I'm sure. | 2012-01-03T17:09:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11888 |
| Interesting take. I wonder how many people do care about foreign policy - probably not many. I think the real key for Paul are the people who are dissatisfied and looking for something new. I also think you're right on banning the Fed, so I rarely think of it as a possibility as well. What I usually say to Paul's supporters is that I agree with them on about half and vehemently disagree on half, but the stuff we agree on is some powerful reform. If we worked together until we got to the point where we fought like cats and dogs I think there'd be a lot of really good stuff accomplished. |
2012-01-02T19:33:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11870 |
| Thanks - I hadn't thought of him as a pure protest vote, but that could give him more pull. Why not? Perhaps he is a measure of general dissatisfaction. | 2012-01-02T19:29:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11869 |
| Alan, this is exactly what I mean about their attempts to marginalize Ron Paul - they really do make him stronger. And I don't think the Big Boyz know how much their fear comes through when they do it. It makes ordinary citizens who are looking for new ideas much more interested in the man that the crooks fear. Oh, and I totally agree on Santorum - I can't believe he's catching on at all, so I really don't want to predict he'll be in it for the long haul even as a factional minority player. But there you have it. |
2012-01-02T19:28:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11868 |
| Thanks! But in the future I'm a bit protective of re-blogging (links are always good!). I do retain copyrights. | 2012-01-02T19:26:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11867 |
| Reality is always funnier than made up stuff. :-) | 2011-12-30T22:58:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/30/primary-reader-2/#comment-11812 |
| Good point - more like Kindergarten! | 2011-12-30T22:57:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/30/primary-reader-2/#comment-11811 |
| I think we all take it way too seriously as it is. Except Donald Trump, that is - but he's an idiot. | 2011-12-30T22:57:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/30/primary-reader-2/#comment-11810 |
| Oh, don't get me wrong - a decade into this and I think we have a decade left to go unless we get our act together. If we take this seriously and stop screwing around we can have a program of Reform in government that recognizes the Restructuring going on around us, helps it move forward, and creates much more equal opportunity for everyone. That's a lot to ask, so I don't really expect it - but I have to keep trying. Another decade of this crap and we may be looking at a revolution first. | 2011-12-28T22:47:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11769 |
| Oh, you're far from the only Republican reader here, but we don't get a lot of comments from the right. Sad, really. If you want to know what Liberals really stand for ... well, good luck with that. The ideological momentum has been with the right for about 30 years and I think will stay there. I think they win largely because they have a plan, any plan, which makes them appear intelligent. I don't think many people knew more about the "Contract with America" other than the name - and Newt is still getting mileage out of it nearly 20 years on. Of course, I'd like to stand for something as a party, and I hope I'm contributing to that. The March on (blank) crowd is much happier keeping it vague, as if good government is something like pornography (we'll know it when we see it). I think that an active program of reform is essential, but without re-iterating core values it's hard to get that going - but it blunts the small government arguments made by hatchet wielders nicely, IMHO. That's my schtick for now. I'll say more later, and something ovr on teh Brodkorb thread, too. :-) |
2011-12-28T22:44:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11768 |
| I'm not arguing that this isn't a Depression - we've been in something like a Depression for a decade. But eventually we come out of it. It's been very uneven so far since this is the "Managed Depression" - most of the managing has been for the benefit of the upper class. Just because I say this is a Depression doesn't mean I'm depressing. :-) |
2011-12-28T19:07:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11763 |
| I think wages are stagnant, which is to say at least they aren't going down much. Yes, the length of the workweek is a good thing to keep an eye on and it isn't changing a lot right now - but I'll look at it when I get some time to see if there's a longer term trend. But yes, that poll on "quality" of jobs is interesting but so many things go into "quality" - I'll bet long hours is a problem. | 2011-12-28T16:46:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11758 |
| The data we have is "survey" data - the Bureau of Labor Statistics asks employers how many jobs they have or the Census Bureau asks people if they are working. There's not a lot of detail in it. It's not until the tax forms are all filed that the really useful details are sorted out. I can't find where the new jobs are being created other than the industry sector "professional and management" - that could mean a lot of things, but I think a lot of it is consulting. We'll see in a little while when more info comes out. | 2011-12-28T16:44:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11757 |
| Amen! A solid policy fight over who reforms what and how would be really good for the state overall, I agree. The more BOTH parties connect with people and deliver a relevant politics the better. I always quote Wellstone (actually quoting Eleanor Roosevelt!) by saying that politics isn't about power or money or influence, it's about improving people's lives. Many Republicans scoff at that, largely because of the source. But if the responded to me by saying that "Sometimes, the best way to improve people's lives is to get out of their way!" I think we'd have something. |
2011-12-27T23:28:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11746 |
| Good point, Ron. He has influenced the state government well as a muckraker, and he had some big scores on that front. If he had stayed in that job he might have had a brilliant career to this day. But attempting to run the party's campaign as a muckraker just didn't work out - there had to be more, and there wasn't. It did work in 2010, but it didn't seem to make permanent change for a lot of reasons. | 2011-12-27T23:25:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11745 |
| I do expect vigorous opposition, and the DFL has to do a much better job of meeting it. But there's a big difference between a policy fight and a personal attack. A little bit of the personal stuff is to be expected, but there has to be some policy at the heart of it. I think the first party to stand clearly for a major reform program - of any kind - will do very well. | 2011-12-27T23:23:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11744 |
| Thank you. I think it's too late for you to keep the Legislature, but I welcome your trying if the Republican party becomes a party of genuine reform. I'd like to see what those "Republican Values" are - as long as they take more words to describe than "No!" to everything Gov. Dayton says. | 2011-12-26T23:04:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11735 |
| I don't know that Brodkorb is the same as the other "freeloaders", but you are right that an attitude of entitlement and elitism is at the heart of the "influence" model of social media. It has to be extinguished - but more importantly it IS being extinguished because it simply does not work. There are still those building sites around this concept, such as klout.com - but they are roundly and rightly being criticized by nearly everyone. The influence model is quite dead and the "freeloaders" are being kicked out. The internet is gradually becoming safe to be the open platform of equality that it needs to be. We'll see where it goes from here. But the "influence" model is dying quickly. It's a very good thing. |
2011-12-26T19:58:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11733 |
| We will see, and there could be a new career for him. But I think the Age of Anger is falling apart generally - that's something we'll have to see, of course, but I think we have seen it run its course. The Tea Party is a bigger threat to the Republican establishment than anything on the left at this point, so the incredible purge of Brodkorb may signal a new direction. Think of Romney vs. (Not Romney, currently Gingrich) and how that will play out nationally, and we'll see. As for examples of lefties who practice the same level of hate, you won't find any that are are virulent. But there are some bloggers who play the game that they shouldn't, although their numbers diminish all the time. MDE has incoming links (which help PageRank) that include many lefties who should have known better than to engage that fight in the first place. MDE was always better ignored - but the mainstream media could not leave it alone, nor could some lefties. That's what made Brodkorb, and eventually the Republicans had to purge him. That bigger story is one I'm letting sit for a bit, but it does have Shakespeare all over it! |
2011-12-26T19:18:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11730 |
| There's a taint about even appearing to be in the same category as stuff like that, isn't there? I don't blame you one bit. | 2011-12-26T19:13:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11729 |
| Yes, will not disagree with you there! | 2011-12-26T19:12:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11728 |
| I do not believe that what is practiced in these games played out in blogs and sometimes the press can be called "politics" (hence the quotes). They are largely irrelevant and pointless. When the mainstream press covers them at all they are doing everyone a tremendous disservice and should be called out for doing so. I completely agree that people are turned off by this nonsense,but it is a strategy used to suppress voter turnout via disgust - and low turnout always favors Republicans. That's why Democrats practicing the same strategy are idiots. | 2011-12-26T16:59:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11723 |
| The site was first registered in Feb 2005 - I looked it up on Whois. I will go with that. Yes, I could have said he was a jerk, but that's not what I want Barataria to be about. This is another angle, a larger lesson that hasn't been written about yet. That's my niche in the world. |
2011-12-26T16:56:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11722 |
| Ha! An excellent greeting for every season! :-) | 2011-12-23T22:12:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11692 |
| Laetum Sol Invictus to you, too! :-) (That's the greeting we worked up for the Solstice, but it's in Latin because of the Roman feast of the Sun God, aka "Invincible Sun".) | 2011-12-23T21:37:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11690 |
| Merry Christmas, though I have a feeling you won't be online for a few days! :-) | 2011-12-23T21:36:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11689 |
| I can imagine how bad it is for you - my GF has the same issue right now. Hope it isn't too bad - and be happy for the work! | 2011-12-23T21:35:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11688 |
| It's OK to say anything in Barataria, as long as you mean it! :-) Merry Christmas, Dale! | 2011-12-23T21:34:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11687 |
| Yes, the Roman Sun God (who probably is the one that inspired Christmas as we know it) had a feast day on the 25th. Laetum Sol Invictus! | 2011-12-22T17:56:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/21/dark-into-light/#comment-11675 |
| Happy Solstice! But I don't have any better greeting yet. It's not really a holiday that lends itself to a special greeting, sadly. We should work on it. Next year! :-) | 2011-12-21T21:46:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/21/dark-into-light/#comment-11654 |
| Today got dark early as well, which has been happening lately. Ug. Tonight, we have candles and fun! | 2011-12-21T21:45:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/21/dark-into-light/#comment-11653 |
| Happy Solstice to you, too! | 2011-12-21T21:44:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/21/dark-into-light/#comment-11652 |
| Thanks for the reminder on the anniversary - I will write on that, I think. As for revolution in North Korea, I simply cannot imagine the generals following a 27-or-so year old kid who inherited the gig from his Dad. It doesn't make any sense to me at all. So I would think that something is inevitable - possibly very soon. But what direction will it go? Hard to say, since we know zip about the actors. I only wish it went as smoothly as Yeltsin made it, but I can't see that happening. A mad dash for the borders as people flee a civil war is probably the best we can hope for - and that will be horrible. We shall see. Plan for the worst, hope for the best. |
2011-12-20T20:16:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11635 |
| This is a good time of year to appreciate what we have, isn't it? You said it very well, we have so much and we should give back. I hope we have the chance to help these wretched people soon. | 2011-12-20T20:12:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11634 |
| They certainly have. Unfortunately, it won't end soon. This will take time no matter what. | 2011-12-20T20:11:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11633 |
| Yes, that's the problem with times like these. It always gets worse before it gets better. | 2011-12-19T18:49:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11617 |
| Fair enough - but I think the stage is being set for more revolution around the world. Freedom is very much marching forward and the worst problems are being resolved. Will Korea take many years to play out? It's hard to believe it's taken this long, but it has to. I think we'll be hearing a lot more about it for a while now, and yes, that is what I like to get ahead of in the news cycles. I'll bet I'm not alone in the coming days. | 2011-12-19T17:06:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11614 |
| Thanks. That is what I wanted more than anything else. I do think there is a new era dawning, and it's being driven by the rise of "developing" nations. What that means we don't know yet, but I am certain that things will continue to change. | 2011-12-19T17:04:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11613 |
| I doubt the Religious Right is popular, too, but opposition to them is not vocal at all. As a nation, we've been though spasms of fundamentalist Christian revival every couple of generations since the beginning. One of them in the 1760s was part of our separation from England - the Scots-Irish started becoming more hard-line Presbyterian and thus less English (creating the Baptist faith). The big revivals of the 1840 led to no Sunday mail delivery along with Mormonism and Seventh-Day Adventists. :-) So this is really a part of a cycle, but the consumerism ... well, it may calm down once we don't have any money. In a contest between Fundamentalist Christians and consumerism I'd hope for mutual destruction, to be honest. But that doesn't seem likely, especially given how much consumerism has been embraced by the same constitutency - something that I never understood, to be honest, outside of the Presbyterian roots. |
2011-12-18T17:42:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11597 |
| Haha! Happy generic sentiment to you, too. :-) | 2011-12-18T17:35:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11596 |
| Thanks! | 2011-12-16T21:41:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11571 |
| I agree completely! | 2011-12-16T21:41:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11570 |
| That is true, it is what we make of it - and a private matter. | 2011-12-16T21:20:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11569 |
| Thank you! What matter is what you believe and how you act on it! | 2011-12-16T21:19:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11568 |
| Wow - this is one that I've tried to tackle and I'm not sure how far it will go. But I'm pretty sure that spirituality is not the exclusive domain of fundamentalists. The United Church of Christ has been pretty evangelical lately with their own style of open and community based faith, for example. I think that this is quietly catching on despite the noise that the harder line keeps preaching. But I'll agree that this movement will have to be a lot more vocal before it captures the imagination of popular culture the way fundamentalism has. | 2011-12-15T14:36:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11551 |
| It is very true that the decline in manufacturing started in the 60s - by the end of the decade the process we see more or less complete today was well under way. The "Archie Bunker" life you mentioned earlier was already very much under assault - hence the reactionary nature of that life/thought. I don't know why I didn't think of this earlier, but if Brasil really is ascendant right now (I've been predicting this for a decade!) we may have the source of the new arts we in the developed world are waiting for. There's always a chance something could come out of southeast Asia as well, but I think Brasil will feel more natural to us. Ready to Samba? :-) |
2011-12-15T14:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11550 |
| It's worth noting that Jack moved back to the City long ago. :-) But yes, let's think about the non-majority, non-middle class and what they might think. I think this will take me a while to digest, but it's a good idea. |
2011-12-14T23:11:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11538 |
| Good points, but the Depression won't last forever (it just seems like it). Some of this thinking came up while trying to look at where the new opportunities are going to happen. A lot of it will be decided by the next generation, so it's up to their values. I have a feeling that they are learning how to make do with a lot less. It's another angle on all this. | 2011-12-14T22:25:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11536 |
| I think you have a counter-argument that there has more or less always been a Romantic movement simultaneous with the entire postwar industrial experience (which I call the Age of Anxiety). I have considered this in the past, and your point is well taken. There have been bits and pieces of Romanticism always present in our culture, especially our love of rural life (even as we let it die off). The various counter-currents have been running at the same time, I admit, with some of them more powerful than others. What I'm looking for are signs that the Romantic view is going to dominate in some new form much as I see the "expert" hyper-specialized economy we're coming out of as a kind of Enlightenment model. This is a difficult argument to make well, especially since I want to use current language - which is very inadequate to describe what comes next, IMHO. That's why I thought I'd raise this as an open question. The lack of real Romanticism in art is evidence enough that we're not moving strongly this direction - at least not yet. But I do think that a truly decentralized world is likely to be more Romantic in many important ways no matter what. Just trying to predict the future, is all. :-) |
2011-12-14T20:44:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11532 |
| True, there was a Romantic Movement that worked alongside important achievements like Civil Rights. Where exactly that energy went is something I've spent my life trying to understand, to be honest. The animosity between liberals and unions has been a major hindrance to any kind of progress at all, but it doesn't fully explain what happened IMHO. What I'm looking for is a movement that really does change how people live in more substantial ways. Yes, organic foods and back-to-the-farm movements are a big part of that. Will these trends continue, or will they die out like the 1960s did? |
2011-12-14T19:29:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11528 |
| I saw that just after posting, yes! We have a lot of the makings for a solid Romantic Era but it hasn't come together quite yet. | 2011-12-14T17:55:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11525 |
| I will get into more later, this an attempt to bring back some old themes before I go forward with them. I want readers' input though, since I have written around this topic before. One topic I have not gotten into is how Romanticism was a response to Enlightenment - the belief that a thinking class could understand the world and make things better through nobless obligue. The way our world is falling apart - ripping apart the connections that made an industrialized hive of "experts" working in narrow fields appear efficient - is very much the way Romanticism got its start. I see many parallels today. But yes, I am looking for examples in art that back up the idea of a new Romantic Era. Without the arts I don't see this happening. |
2011-12-14T16:54:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11523 |
| Yes, a very good point. This is an after-school project that is fully supported by the Saint Paul District along with many other "Extended Day Learning" opportunities they have. They are really trying to do more than just standardized tests. A lot of credit has to go to Mark Mueller, George's math teacher and team coach, for pulling all this together. Very dedicated and creative guy who has made math a lot of fun! | 2011-12-12T20:00:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/12/first-lego-league/#comment-11500 |
| It is catching on - there are something like 120 going to the Minnesota State finals, which means there were thousands at the local level! This is a pretty big deal. | 2011-12-12T19:57:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/12/first-lego-league/#comment-11499 |
| I don't know of any video of a robot being put through its paces, no. I'll ask around. | 2011-12-12T19:56:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/12/first-lego-league/#comment-11498 |
| It was just a lot of fun - though a bit nerve-wracking for the kids. They got "into it", which was even more fun for us big kids, er, adults. :-) | 2011-12-12T18:21:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/12/first-lego-league/#comment-11494 |
| Thanks! | 2011-12-11T03:47:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/23/thanksgiving-3/#comment-11461 |
| The problem is that the amount of aid is so large it's more like Germany doing another Reunification ... or, I guess an Anschluss (bad images intended there). So they really can't do it alone. It would probably involve the US, China ... and maybe Brasil. Not something we were banking on. | 2011-12-09T23:20:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11455 |
| OK, I'll give you that he has some idea what happened, but he doesn't necessarily know where the money is or who has it. My guess would be either the Caymans or a complex swap involving Banko Industrial de Venezuela (my personal favorite because it involves Cuba) but it's only a guess. :-) And I am also pretty sure that this is far more embarassing to the guy than his cut of any money, too. He seems to know he has a lot. But ... it did sound pretty weird to hear him say "I dunno" in so many words, didn't it? | 2011-12-09T23:18:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11454 |
| Yes, that could happen again. When I say the Euro must print or die, I do mean that "die" is always an option. It's entirely up to them. However, that process would likely affect us as well - especially if we have financial houses run even somewhat as poorly as MF Global. I think we have to be ready to face what happens when JP Morgan implodes, for example. I do plan to revisit this post in the future. MF Global can't be the only bad actor, even if they are somewhat unusual (which I sorta doubt). |
2011-12-09T21:47:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11450 |
| Back in 2007, I was advocating junk silver (coins so worn they have only their silver value, not collectable) and canned tun. Seriously. Search for "junk silver and tuna" and you'll find it. :-) | 2011-12-09T21:44:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11449 |
| Short-sightedness is the real problem, yes, and no law will ever correct that. | 2011-12-09T18:59:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11446 |
| I think that is likely true, but that gives us a year to see how this plays out and what really needs to be done. I think nearly everyone agrees that there needs to be a wall between investment banking and commercial banking (ie, a new Glass-Steagall) but beyond that it's pretty open. MF Global will make the case for action - and the accompanying silence from Congress will probably help get them unelected, yes. | 2011-12-09T18:59:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11445 |
| I completely agree. The system we have now is based on audits, but they are apparently useless. It probably won't change until people question the whole industry - which they damned well should given how sloppy this one was. It's a "where there is smoke there is fire" thang - and boy is there a ton of smoke blown around in these audits! | 2011-12-09T15:58:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11440 |
| Oh, no, not at all! But we do know that there are at least two outside groups, lawyers and insurance companies, that have an interest in keeping these guys in check - and both are pretty powerful. It's something. I also believe that any public regulation has to start with a truly independent audit - that may be wishful thinking, but if investors get tired of all the BS there's always a chance that they'll either insist on such a system or just flee from these pirates until they get their act together. As for being criminals, we'll see if there are enough laws in place to make that a full-on reality in this case. If not, we may need new criminal laws to hold people accountable - I really don't know. We'll see. But there may be ways of getting around this "too big to fail" that don't involve just shoveling money at them because anything else could cause economic collapse. That's not to say we might not want to break up big companies like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, but even if we don't there may be ways to reign them in. But I guarantee you, it'll start with lawyers and insurance companies whether we like it or not. |
2011-12-09T15:45:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11438 |
| Yes, that is what most people think. It is a bit strange, but it is the market, | 2011-12-08T22:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11420 |
| Yes, Girl's Hockey is only about 10 years old around here | 2011-12-07T22:42:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/07/hockey/#comment-11414 |
| I completely agree - the institutions might need to survive, but everyone at the top should damned well have the fear of the DA deep in their black hearts. There may not be enforceable laws on the books that would make this a real possibility, but if I was looking at reform I would make sure that this was a part of any new system. | 2011-12-07T22:08:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11412 |
| Time to tell the world - not everyone up here can play hockey! :-) It's been a fun sport to get to know, I have had a lot of fun with it. | 2011-12-07T22:06:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/07/hockey/#comment-11411 |
| I think people are aware that the Wild are good, but I'm not sure how many know that they are leading the NHL right now. Absolutely on fire! It does make the Vikes troubles (and the Twins, for that matter) look pretty bad. I really don't see a new stadium in the cards. | 2011-12-07T17:35:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/07/hockey/#comment-11404 |
| No, I've never played. I have never even skated! But it does seem like a good sport, if awfully quick for me. I'm still more of a football guy at heart, but I respect hockey the more I see of it. | 2011-12-07T17:33:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/07/hockey/#comment-11403 |
| There is a political restructuring going on as well as a cultural one - those are harder to quantify, but they are long overdue. People are returning to cities, living closer together, and lowering expectation. In politics things are moving so damned slowly, but we can see how the old left/right nonsense is collapsing finally - and Ron Paul has a lot more in common with Bernie Sanders. Things are moving - but we have to give it a big shove. | 2011-12-06T22:01:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11394 |
| Dale, that whole "New Normal" thing always bothered me. There might be some very permanent changes, but the problem at hand has always been a relatively unusual event in US history - not unique, unusual. The last time we went through this sort off things was 80 years ago, so no one is alive that really remembers it. To me, the key issue has always been the transformation from one economy to another (which I call Restructuring). That doesn't mean we'll be in this downer forever - but that the next upturn won't be something we can totally anticipate right now. Honestly, who thought to buy AOL in 1985 (or whenever it was founded)? Who thought to sell it right at the peak in the late 90s? |
2011-12-05T21:00:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11389 |
| I think their position is increasingly leaving them isolated. The sight of reasonably priced 40 MPG cars shows that we're finally getting real, I think. | 2011-12-05T19:10:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11386 |
| That's one way to look at it. | 2011-12-05T18:23:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11384 |
| That is a particularly stupid li'l slogan/chant/whatever. It would be good to have a political cycle without stupid sayings, but I think that's unlikely. | 2011-12-05T18:10:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11382 |
| Anna, I don't know why no one else talks about Restructuring. It seems damned obvious to me. Instead, we went from "Recovery will happen" to a lot of silence. The pieces of a real Recovery are starting to fall into place but there is no framework to talk about them - and how to encourage this process! It's maddening to me. You are right about retraining, but since we don't really know what skills will be in demand in a few years it's hard to emphasize that part of it, IMHO. I've been trying to figure out what sectors of the economy are producing jobs right now, but they are a bit mysterious. We do know that big companies and state/local governments have been shedding jobs, but who is creating the new ones that appear to be increasing? Dunno. The financial world is a real mess and they simply refuse to reform. As much as I do appreciate the Fed keeping us out of a serious Depression (ie, more like 1929) I do think that the "moral hazard" has proven to be real and the need for reform/Restructuring has not been as obvious to them as it should be. The sense of urgency has also been a casualty of the Fed keeping things on as even a keel as they could, which is the real problem, IMHO. That's probably why we have yet to really hear about Restructuring. |
2011-12-05T16:18:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11380 |
| I don't know if the stock market is worth paying attention to (they tend to think pretty short term!) but I agree that it's worth keeping our fingers crossed. Just noticed that in a lot of news articles on economic and business topics that the term "Recovery" is strangely missing these days. We're no longer waiting for it, I guess. The term "Restructuring" has yet to make it to the popular press, however. We'll see. :-) |
2011-12-04T22:12:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11368 |
| We don't really disagree here, but the difference in emphasis makes our arguments pretty starkly opposed. There is a trend that my 78 year old Dad calls "The General Inflation of Everything" which describes how everything has gotten so much more during his life. Housing is a big part of that, for sure. To me, it's always a matter of balance. I live in a big house, I really do, but it's 150 years old and I restored it myself. I'm a bit loathe to say that others can't have what I do. It would be hypocritical. However, we obviously cannot keep making everything bigger over time - there has to be a limit. And I also agree on the 30 year mortgage, which seems very arcane. As for the "No shopping", the cute li'l poem I wrote was very careful to not demonize retailers per se. I want to see a sense of balance restored to our lives - one that includes time for families, contemplation, spirituality, and so on. Does that mean no shopping at all? No, not at all - but we're so far out of whack on this score that it's hard to not take a hard line versus what we have today. Perhaps I overdid it on the Monday previous, but youknowwhatImean. I am a city person. I like multiple family homes or at least houses stitched tightly together in a fabric that includes a strong community. Part of that is the business strip within walking distance and access to transit that whisks people off to bigger opportunities. There are so many ways this life has been devalued over the last 60-some years that it's hard to know where to start. But it is a good life - rich, exciting, and full of support when things get bad. I haven't written about cities as a concept in a long time, but I think I'll return to that in a bit. It's time. Thanks for your patience with my neo-Amish tendencies, tho - your arguments make mine better over time. :-) |
2011-12-03T15:53:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11362 |
| I think this does relate to acquiring new skills in a flexible economy. Information is one thing, but the faster you can absorb that information and put it into a framework that makes sense for you (your experience, style of learning, methods of remembering, etc) the sooner it can become a skill. To me it's like the critical difference between science and technology - one is learning, the other is skill (techne in Greek). I think you are right at the heart of the problem here! | 2011-12-03T15:41:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/16/the-next-economy/#comment-11360 |
| Hadn't seen that, thanks. I think it's time for me to get together my financial regulation plan. It does start with Glass-Steagall II (The Wrath from Cons) and goes out from there. | 2011-12-02T23:39:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11355 |
| You are right, that is the problem. The money has to get out in the economy, and so far we haven't even come close to making that happen. Keep in mind that in the last Depression it was the government that was getting money out, not the Fed. They're better at it, I think. | 2011-12-02T21:44:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11353 |
| Fair enough - when it really turns around we can all be a lot happier. Especially when there is upward pressure on wages, as Jack noted earlier. But I think that's just over the horizon now - as long as nothing screws it up. Why is the headline unemployment rate used so much? I think this is one of those annoying things in our world that would just go away if everyone stopped paying attention to it. Something like the Kardashians. |
2011-12-02T18:09:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11350 |
| That is a good point - we have to restructure the part of the economy that did the most to create the Depression in the first place. That would take a lot more political will than we have - or a real meltdown, possibly both. The cash is there and we can always print more, but getting it out to the right places is going to be tricky. Identifying growth opportunities will help, which I do think will start happening soon, but if they can't/won't deliver the capital needed you're right. Can we develop a plan here? What do you think needs to be done to reform finance? I've had a few ideas but it's not really a plan yet. |
2011-12-02T17:57:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11348 |
| Yes, optimism has to be tempered by the harsh reality. I guess what I'm trying to say is that we have definitely seen the bottom and we're in the process of building the foundation for a genuine recovery. I know that the popular press has a tendency to talk about "recovery" as if it's an event that just happens, but after a credit-bust Depression like we've been in there is always a restructuring. That takes a lot more time and effort, and our leadership at the top has been pathetic at best (leadership in politics, business, academics, the whole shebang). I see us turning a corner, but there is definitely a long way to go. | 2011-12-02T17:53:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11347 |
| Yes, I expect at least close to 200k jobs will have been created - the ADP report has been pretty close lately. The report today was the Unemployment Initial Claims, which is stuck at 400k per week (or a shade less). That seems like a lot of jobs lost - 1.7M per month - but other places are apparently creating more than that. It would mean that 1.9M are to be created is the BLS "official" report comes in where the ADP estimate was. That means that of the 131M jobs, each month 1.3% are being lost and 1,5% are being created. Both of those numbers are rather large, and the growth is in the relatively small difference between them. But ... it would mean that net growth is accelerating just a bit. IF it all comes in that way, that is. Stay tuned! :-) (How often have I said "stay tuned" lately? Far too much?) |
2011-12-01T22:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11337 |
| Just so that everyone knows - the November jobs report due out on Friday will be excellent. The ADP figures have been pretty close lately and they are amazing. I was expecting a decent report but not this good: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/u-s-companies-add-more-than-estimated-206-000-jobs-in-november-adp-says.html See how Barataria tries to tell you what tomorrow's news will be? That whole Fed action stuff was here in April 2010, no point in covering that. :-) |
2011-11-30T22:55:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11332 |
| I think we've passed the bottom - barring a big disaster coming from Europe, that is. We'll see. | 2011-11-30T21:54:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11331 |
| That is a problem. What we can say is that wages are unlikely to rise until there is little unemployment. There is a chance that wages aren't falling too badly because there are shortages of skilled workers in some areas, however. | 2011-11-30T21:54:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11330 |
| Barring a major credit meltdown, I think there is reason to believe this will accelerate. Note that there is substantial evidence that there are new opportunities out there - but where are they? Why don't we hear about the new sectors and kinds of employment? Once those become "hot" the money that is lying around waiting for investment opportunities will flow again and things should pick up. It's a matter of identifying the Next Economy so that it can move forward, IMHO. | 2011-11-30T17:35:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11325 |
| Yes, that is what I am saying in a nutshell. Job growth is coming from new areas now as the next economy takes the place of the old one. I think we can say we've turned the corner. The old economy continues to shed jobs rapidly but there is still a net gain. | 2011-11-30T17:34:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11324 |
| Yes, there is a point where we finish off the restructuring by deciding as a people how we want to live our lives. Reduced workweeks are definitely something we should consider to spread the work around. But I still think that reducing the overhead per employee is very important as we move that direction - which is to say moving to a single payer health system and taking the tab off of employer's backs. It would make major changes like a reduced workweek much more affordable. | 2011-11-30T17:32:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11323 |
| Things are coming to a head soon, I think, and we'll see. It may have to get very bad before it gets better. A total collapse might be necessary before we fix anything. That's the lesson of Rome, IMHO - not the final collapse, the many times it fell apart but was able to rebound (Vespasian!). | 2011-11-29T22:51:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11311 |
| That's just it - Germany senses that this isn't the only time they'll be on the hook. I think a real permanent solution that puts this behind us would be acceptable to Germany, but they see it happening again. The member nations were supposed to stay within deficit targets and so on, but Greece found a way out - they simply lied about the state of their finances and everyone let them in the interest of unity. Germany is pretty uptight about things because there is a long habit of looking the other way that they want to break. Keep in mind, however, that while it's easy to fault Greece for bad behavior they were under military dictatorship until (I think) 1974 so they have always been a special case. Rather than codify that special case everyone just looked the other way. No more. But the attitude in general comes off as pretty damned cavalier. The real story in the Bloomberg piece on how much the Fed loaned to JPM, etc, is that they would not have done that without a certain level of panic behind closed doors. Publicly, they want us to think they have it all under control, but their actions betray a very different state of things. And the Minneapolis Fed Governor didn't even know how much they were doing? That's serious "hair on fire" panic, IMHO. The cavalier attitude is what we get publicly and yes, it should be galling. |
2011-11-28T22:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11303 |
| Well, I can't think of what else it comes down to. I was going to get into the politics of this more later, as I ran out of room in the explanation - but the comments have taken over. Just as well. | 2011-11-28T22:38:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11302 |
| You're right, it is corrupt. The people who pay for it are those who work for a living (given how tax rates fall at upper incomes). The whole system is now set up to reward influence at the expense of actually working. Corruption at its worst, IMHO. | 2011-11-28T20:57:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11298 |
| My understanding is always a bit limited, but I'll do my best. Germany appears to be opposed to the ECB intervening dramatically because ECB lacks the charter and procedures to do so and because the Germans want fiscal prudence in the nations getting bailed out as a price. What they really fear is that ECB (and by extension Germany) is turned into a giant piggy bank that can be raided more or less constantly to prop up nations that can't or don't bother to manage themselves. They have become sticklers for government control and a limited ECB charter until they have everything in place. How bad are French banks? I didn't include this because I have no idea. Société Générale has been accused of being on the edge of collapse, but is now suing the UK paper that printed that story. Some have backed that story, others refuted it. It's a big mystery at this point. The only clue we have is that there appears to be a flight away from French paper, meaning that at least some people who know are nervous. But then again, they probably should be no matter what. How deep is Goldman into this? They are into everything, so they are in very deep. What we have no idea of is how many Credit Default Swaps they sold against whatever position they or anyone else has. Those derrivatives are the real problem waiting out there once there is a default, and we won't know until it happens. Scratch that - based on experience so far, we'll know about 3 years later. I have a gut feeling that JPM is in very, very deep and that MF Global was just a front for them, but this is totally unsubstantiated. |
2011-11-28T20:52:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11297 |
| I don't know what to do about sovereign nations, but that's up to the Eurozone. As for big banks, I have said all along that the FDIC has the right model. They are funded by insurance premiums assessed on all the institutions, but if they need more they can borrow it from the Feds and pay it back with higher premiums going forward. When an institution fails, they swoop in and take it over, completely eliminating the old management and re-opening within days (sometimes it all goes down over the weekend). There is usually a forced bankruptcy, meaning that shareholders get nothing and all the golden parachutes are wiped out. Cold, clean, and professional - the institution remains but the people who ran it into the ground are out. The only other thing I'd like to see is more emphasis on possible criminal charges for mismanagement. Certainly, that won't happen all the time, but that's OK. The point is that there should be some personal risk for those at the top (they at least lose all income and pension) even if the institution remains. And it should pay for itself - the industry has to shoulder the risk, not the taxpayer. |
2011-11-28T17:35:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11292 |
| We don't know what the total worldwide tab will be, but it's looking like it will wind up at least $20 trillion before this is over. We could write it $20,000,000,000,000 to show how big it is, but ... wow ... | 2011-11-28T17:31:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11291 |
| A this point, ya never know. :-) | 2011-11-27T03:06:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/25/black-friday/#comment-11263 |
| Thanks! | 2011-11-26T18:29:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/25/black-friday/#comment-11256 |
| Thanks, everyone! This took me a little longer to write, and I was thinking about it a lot last night. A little "Nightmare Before Christmas", a bit of "The Lorax", and a good dose of Silverstein for good measure. I love doing kitschy poems like this, but the effort in thought and two hours to write 'em is a bit much without pay at the end. :-) | 2011-11-25T20:00:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/25/black-friday/#comment-11251 |
| It is appalling, isn't it? There is almost a conspiracy to eliminate Thanksgiving from our calendar. The only possible response is to ignore ALL of the hype and have a good holiday, the way it should be. Note to the Christian Right - you might be surprised how many of us "Liberals" agree that the morals of this nation are under attack - but it has nothing to do with people who are different from the mainstream. The attack comes from commercialism and greed. You want to know who to blame? Look in the mirror and be confident that you aren't part of the problem, then we can talk. We can talk about a lot more than you might think. |
2011-11-23T19:13:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/23/thanksgiving-3/#comment-11229 |
| Thanks - it's a small mission of mine to improve the status of Thanksgiving, a truly great holiday. | 2011-11-23T19:11:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/23/thanksgiving-3/#comment-11228 |
| Thanks - I decided not to repeat either of them but to try to bind them together into one. Readers don't usually follow links, but it's worth a try. I wonder if this series of essays should be put together into some kind of book - and this is a start of that thinking, really. | 2011-11-23T16:37:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/23/thanksgiving-3/#comment-11222 |
| Thanks | 2011-11-22T22:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11204 |
| Thanks, that's what I hope for more than anything. It's too important of a holiday to be lost the way it is. | 2011-11-21T20:51:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11179 |
| That's another way to do it! As long as Thanksgiving doesn't get lost in the mad dash, I'm OK with it. :-) | 2011-11-21T19:38:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11177 |
| Amen. I think that's what it's really all about. | 2011-11-21T19:14:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11175 |
| It makes me wonder what other people think is important, to be honest. And how they reached their conclusions. | 2011-11-21T18:06:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11171 |
| Your plan is a great one, too! Just take it easy and enjoy it. | 2011-11-21T18:05:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11170 |
| Thanks. It does seem very insane to me - I never understood the rush for material things at all. Dunno. | 2011-11-21T18:04:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11169 |
| Pretty much, yes. More a question of who gets stuck with the tab this time, and in Europe they're fighting it pretty hard. | 2011-11-19T20:37:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11132 |
| Thanks. I always enjoyed making things more than just walking around telling people what to do. It's why I got my degree in engineering. Rubber products may not seem like much, but coming out of the lab dead tired with holes in my clothes and a kilo or two of experimental polymer is actually quite a lot of fun. Making music boxes was pretty fun, too, but far less lucrative. It's good to have something to show at the end of the day and say, "This is what I do". Sadly, there's not much work like that around. |
2011-11-18T23:27:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11113 |
| Yup. And as others have pointed out, we're probably screwed along with them unless we get on top of this. | 2011-11-18T18:56:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11106 |
| I think you're also making the case for "Why we should care" here. Yes, MF Global is the tip of the ol' iceberg. Why other financial institutions are so quick to go after them remains a bit of a mystery, but it's clear that at least part of it has to deal with Corzine's political connections and appearance of special favors (such as being a primary on T-Bills). I suspect, however, that they are all trying to distance themselves and their practices from the obvious poster child for more regulation, ie, "Methinks thou doth protest too much". But this does very much tie into the Euro problem and probably gives everyone a reason to care how MF Global unwinds from their insane position. |
2011-11-18T18:20:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11103 |
| An excellent point! I was so wrapped up in this one that I neglected the "Why we should care" at the start. I hope it's pretty obvious by the time you get to the end, at least. Yes, the alarm bells should be pretty loud - I'm doing my part. | 2011-11-18T18:16:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11102 |
| A good point. :-) | 2011-11-17T22:46:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-11075 |
| Thanks! It was gratifying to have a solid majority - the exact math has led to an interesting discussion on google+ about what to use as the demoninator, since the "official" 58/42 leaves off those who were dropped for lack of a second choice. But it was a good win all the same. | 2011-11-17T13:50:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11065 |
| This was one of my first efforts with a video-heavy presentation - the very first being http://MediaHare.com , which is not as big. I think it worked, but I should have organized it better from the start. It got away from me pretty quickly as the size went nuts. I know what I would have done differently. | 2011-11-17T13:48:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11064 |
| I think that most groups have these endorsements made by a central group that is "into it" and rarely poll their members. In this case, the Realtors that are most into local politics are usually landlords, and Dave has a reputation for not being ... friendly to them. The Ward still has a lot of houses that have gone rental and relations between the rental world and homeowners is always a bit tense. | 2011-11-17T13:46:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11063 |
| Thanks, Kris. I was there to serve mainly, that was my job. I enjoy that very much. | 2011-11-17T13:43:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11062 |
| That particular twitter feed really reeks of the standard Republican line - but the candidate failed to get 10-12%, which is the Republican percentage of the voters in this Ward. So it was a dismal failure by any measure. But I'm certain that IRV accentuated that because the other negative messages also did poorly. | 2011-11-16T22:15:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11044 |
| [blush!] Thank you! But my role was pretty small overall. It takes a ton of work shared by many to make a campaign work. I would never take credit for what everyone else did. | 2011-11-16T18:01:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11039 |
| Kris, I did miss you! Sorry about that. Was a big night, had so many people to thank. Makes me wonder who else I missed! There is a real irony here with IRV. I always said that if this is what the voters want, it's what we will go with. It appears to have worked a lot better than I expected right out of the box, so whatever. :-) |
2011-11-16T18:00:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11038 |
| Jim, it's like anything else in marketing - if you try to be too clever you'll fail. You cannot say two different things to two different groups and not expect that word will get out that you were two-faced. Period. You can, however, emphasize different things between the pieces. For example, we talked a lot about the Schmidt Brewery redevelopment on West Seventh, but tended to talk a lot more about Pedro Park and developments in Lowertown for Downtown. On the website and in some later pieces we had the highlights of ALL the great projects going on around the Ward, but we tried to tell people about what we thought would matter most to them. Same for the issue pieces. Honestly, I can't think of a potential conflict between them because we never even got close to having one. We kept it real and genuine all the time. |
2011-11-16T17:13:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11035 |
| Thanks! | 2011-11-16T17:08:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11034 |
| That's what I'm thinking, too. Private deliberations will help just the way they did historically. Good point on Mason - as long as we have someone like him who can publicly correct the flaws in the private bill we'll be OK. But that is such a different process I really don't have a lot of hope for a final bill (until I see it and how that process plays out!). | 2011-11-16T14:18:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-11024 |
| That's what I'm thinking, too. But you never know - Congress might be running so scared that they actually do pass something if it's sitting in front of them. My understanding is that procedurally whatever comes out of the Super Committee will go right to the floor and bypass the committee process, which is good. | 2011-11-15T22:45:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-11007 |
| There is little doubt in my mind that Obama has control at this stage, especially given the low ratings for Congress. I think he'll hold them to this process, more or less erasing the mistake he made by not embracing Simpson-Bowles a year ago. But that's behind us. Once again, I think the key for those of us not in elected office is to keep the profile of this "process" as high as possible so that we can hold Congress responsible for their failure to act. |
2011-11-14T22:42:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-10987 |
| That has been talked about, but Obama is firm that it not be removed. I think he finally has some leverage on the Republicans and intends to use it. Remember, automatic cuts come from the military, too ... | 2011-11-14T22:39:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-10986 |
| I am hopeful, but not in this process. I think that the time for action has been clearly marked, and that's a good thing in itself. | 2011-11-14T18:58:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-10983 |
| This will play out and raise the profile of the need for a process - if they fail, I think we can expect something to come of it one way or the other. But it may take a lot of activism to force it. | 2011-11-14T18:57:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-10982 |
| They were a bad actor and I think they got away with it because they served a purpose for everyone else. But that may be yesterday very shortly. There will be more scrutiny, at least, and probably more regulation. They have it coming after this. I think three questions remain at this point - What was JPM doing in all this, esp. regarding the mixing of accounts? Where was PWC, the auditor, when all this was happening? And why did they bet so hard on something so stupid - as if they really thought the fix was in Eurojunk? Unless we can answer these questions in a way that makes it clear that there is not an industry-wide problem, there will be more action. And I think the issue with PWC alone needs to be mined much more heavily - how can audited companies have constant systemic problems like this and still get a PWC seal of approval? |
2011-11-12T21:38:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10969 |
| No argument here - that's what I've been up to for a long time. I think that regular people are interested in the truth and are willing to read a lot more stuff critically. There's a reason Barataria has become successful and a lot of it has to do with people like you who make this into a rich conversation - something much better than a lot of signs and slogans. | 2011-11-12T21:34:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10968 |
| I have been wondering about him, too because someone literally bet the company that Eurobonds would be paid off at face value - a completely ridiculous idea if ever there was one. And I do wonder what happened when he was Gov - something went horribly wrong there. So I was going to include a lot more about Corzine in this piece but it seems to me that there is something going on that I sure don't understand. | 2011-11-11T19:47:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10963 |
| I think JP Morgan is a pretty good sign of trouble, generally. :-) | 2011-11-11T19:34:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10961 |
| You're right, there have to be more of these. A good wave would get even this congress to act, I'm sure. | 2011-11-11T17:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10958 |
| Well, that's just an MF shame! (sorry, the jokes just write themselves) | 2011-11-11T17:02:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10957 |
| This will all be decided by about 1PM on Monday. They have to give the campaigns time to have observers in place so that the counting of 2nd place votes goes over without a hitch. It's much like a recount in procedure. This is an analysis I worked up for another site. It's very likely Dave has won, but we won't know until Monday. ----------------------- While we wait for the final results, here are some other ways to look at it. Here are the percents of voters that picked the candidate for either 1st or 2nd place (does not add up to 100% !) Dave 57% Ivey 51% Hosko 42% Dave is clearly the choice of the Ward by this measure. But there's more to it than that. If you take away the voters who had no second place pick (1,482 votes, or 28%) then Dave's 1st place voters picked at least 597 second place people - and if they picked an average number of 2nds they picked 1,504. Ivey needs 644 votes in the next rounds to catch Dave, but many of his 1,281 2nd place votes are from people who voted for Dave 1st. It's very unlikely he has enough 2nd place votes to catch Dave no matter what if you assume that those who picked Dave 1st are likely to have picked Ivey 2nd. Another interesting stat - Ivey did get 33% of the 2nd place votes among people who could possibly give him a 2nd (that is, didn't vote for him 1st) but Dave was not far behind with 29%. Hosko was further back with 22% of those who could have picked him 2nd. So it's very likely that Dave will win this - Ivey didn't do that much better among 2nd choices and has a lot more to make up. Hosko has a much bigger hill to climb and his chance is very small. |
2011-11-10T15:51:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10949 |
| Right. They are doing one thing and doing it well. They are not the bailout bank - and they really can't be. That's up to Germany to bail out everyone - or so it seems. This doesn't make a lot of sense to most of us in the USofA, but it's the reality. I do agree that they may well have to reduce rates again when it all hits the fan, so they may yet be part of the solution - but not really on purpose. | 2011-11-09T22:08:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/09/euro-contrast/#comment-10945 |
| Yes, that is true. We definitely need more disclosure at the least. The last time we got it the bill was sponsored in the House by Ron Paul and in the Senate by Bernie Sanders - that tells you something about the politics of getting that to happen. And the result was breathtaking - I covered it last December in a piece linked above. I do agree completely that more openness is very important, as are checks and balances more like the Federal Government itself (as I have also written). But I hold that at its root our system will beat theirs anytime in a crisis - and there is reason to believe that globalism and new economic theories are going to dramatically increase the number of financial crisis that need attention. |
2011-11-09T18:08:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/09/euro-contrast/#comment-10942 |
| Well, it might. Corporate profits are what usually drives the stock market, and they are not bad right now. A lot of my friends on the Left will say that these profits are a bad thing, but they have been leading into something like a mild expansion and the need for more employees - which is getting a bit stronger all the time (though it is still very weak). So if the market is watching corporate profits and a stable if slowly improving job picture, it should rebound. If it becomes convinced that Euroland will take down the developed world it'll stay down. Something tells me that MF Global is a bigger story for us because it reminds us how Europe affects us here in the USofA - and then we start to care about Italy, a nation whose internal politics (let alone EU politics) is utterly unfathomable to us. That's a good way to cause worry. Justified worry? The short answer is "No", but the long answer is "Yes". :-) |
2011-11-09T17:38:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/09/euro-contrast/#comment-10940 |
| You know, I could have saved about 700 words by saying it that way. :-) The USofA is able to put off a reckoning, yes, but that does not necessarily mean that we meet the same fate later. A lot depends on what we do with the time we can buy. Given that we know there are major transformations going on in our economy we can use our (still) good credit and mechanisms for borrowing to get us there. I agree, however, that simply maintaining the spending spree only gets us to the same place slower - which is mostly what I think we've done over the first decade of this Managed Depression. |
2011-11-09T17:34:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/09/euro-contrast/#comment-10939 |
| It is going to happen, Pat. It's been a long haul, but it will be there. | 2011-11-08T14:42:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10921 |
| Thanks, Jack. There are a lot of stories like that. My ex-wife Deb lives in one of the townhomes in the "Brewery Breakthrough" where the Federation rehabbed the entire neighborhood at once - with a ton of help from Dave. None of this would have happened without him. We need him at least long enough to finish Little Bohemia and the Schmidt Brewery - and, I hope, the Pioneer/Endicott downtown! | 2011-11-07T19:53:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10916 |
| Thanks! Dave is a great guy personally as well. Tough stands have cost him over the years, but you have to expect that. It's always close in this Ward no matter what because of the tremendous diversity, too. | 2011-11-07T17:14:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10914 |
| Yes, it's a 5-way IRV (Instant Runoff) vote, so it's hard to know just what will happen. I think we should all be prepared for a good lead going into the second ballot for Dave, but it would be so great to avoid that procedure. It's Saint Paul's first time with IRV so nearly anything can happen. | 2011-11-07T17:13:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10913 |
| Thank you! There are many issues that matter to just one neighborhood that it takes a City Councilmember to help solve, and that's what Dave does best. Doesn't make the news very often, but it's very important to the city. Not exactly a glamorous job by any stretch, but it has to get done. | 2011-11-07T16:22:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10910 |
| As a Miami native, I have a theory that everything bad in the world goes through Miami at some point. My daughter actually challenges me at times to find the connection when a story hits - and I usually do find the connection. In the case of FDR in Bayfront Park on that fateful day, we all dodged a bullet. It was, indeed, amazing. History is an amazing master. | 2011-11-05T00:17:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10891 |
| Sometimes, I think my role is to be the little boy who says, "The Emperor is naked - and I think we can see why the Empress has a thang goin' on the side, too!"" :-) A really dumb question that can't be answered easily is a question that has to be asked, at least once in a while. A time of crisis like this may seem like the last point in history to do it, but we made it this far without asking it. Might be good to know. | 2011-11-04T18:57:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10889 |
| Good analogy. As for just starting over, that's what the "New Deal" was all about - the hand had played out and it was time to shuffle the cards and start over. Ideally you do this in an orderly way, but if governments and banks can't make it happen it probably will on its own. But ... I think we'd prefer to not go through another Depression of 1929. If we really did learn anything - and we really can have a "Managed Depression" - it would be to avoid that. Let's see how smart we really are. | 2011-11-04T18:55:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10888 |
| It seems pretty consistent, yes. The greatest expansions always come at a time when the whole population sees its life improving. | 2011-11-04T17:38:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10885 |
| Thanks - but I have to try! :-) It's a very important concept because money itself is nothing more than our ability to manage it. Forget all the political philosophies out there - the most important thing that government can do to keep the economy on an even keel is a firm hand on the tiller. That is what has gone wrong lately - on both left and right. | 2011-11-04T15:53:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10882 |
| Dale, people could also go to jail and, I would think, be sued for past pay when they were running something into the ground. I don't see any reason why the institution can remain but everyone is gone and perhaps facing serious penalties. It would make me feel a lot better about bailing out an institution. | 2011-11-02T22:33:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10867 |
| When I was in Burghausen, Bavaria, they had "French Week". People came over from their sister city in France and the whole town went Franch- menus were substituted, people spoke French to each other, and so on. It was fun! I asked the owner of the Hotel Post where I was staying, Herr Mitterer, about the whole event. He was very enthusiastic. So I asked about the whole EU thing, if that had a future. "It has to," he told me, "We've seen the alternative." |
2011-11-02T20:55:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10863 |
| The efforts in Europe are really heating up - it's not just Greece that is resisting the bailouts, it's everyone. I have to say that as much as I decry socialized risk for private profit in the US, the Europeans have been way ahead of us on this scale for a long time - and people are really sick of it. | 2011-11-02T18:45:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10857 |
| Well, eventually we would, but all the gizmos and gadgets bought on credit would see their sales plummet, meaning that nearly everyone working retail would be out of a job. Same for restaurants. In the last Depression we didn't have the reliance on credit that we do today so this time it could actually be a lot worse. Other than that, we do reach a point where default doesn't sound so bad after all. Beats the constant crisis of the day. |
2011-11-02T17:08:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10854 |
| Interesting theory, and it makes some sense. i was chalking it up to cowardice, but sometimes a cowardly act needs a bit of cover. :-) Thing is that the system has become vulnerable to so many little players (like Greece) holding everyone hostage - we can expect a lot more of this in the future. | 2011-11-02T16:34:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10852 |
| Hey, we're the same age! :-) I remember Halloween as a kid the way I remember everything in Miami of the early 1970s - it was paradise. Then, in the late 70s and early 80s it went to Hell awfully fast. But as a kid it was just one perfect day after another and not a worry in the world. Halloween as another selling season seems inevitable, but it would be nice if it wasn't quite so crass. I was talking with a cook at a client's place who is from Mexico about Dia de los Muertos, and this is the first year that his little girl will offer something for her recently departed abuelita (grandma). It makes our Anglo holiday look like a total sham. |
2011-11-02T15:22:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10850 |
| Jan, I had a few dozen. A nearly 100% "Thank you!" rate, so we know there's a Depression on! :-) Good kids in the 'hood, especially from the projects down the street. It's a great holiday, time to see all the kids before Winter sets in. | 2011-11-01T16:43:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10839 |
| Yes, that is the "right" way to spell it, but ... I got lazy. :-) I think that the anti-Halloween feelings are pretty ancient, and are pretty standard anti-Wiccan stuff. But you're right that they did go away rather completely as Samhain was absorbed into All Soul's Day. Why bring it up now? I dunno. To each his own. |
2011-10-31T21:28:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10834 |
| I agree, Jim, but when I went digging into this I was surprised to find out that it's gotten more sanitized with time. Well, not surprised, so much ,as dismayed. We like to think people were proper and orderly back when, but it turns out we're much more tame by comparison. Perhaps I should have done a piece on how we've turned into zombies? :-) | 2011-10-31T16:59:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10830 |
| Thanks very much! | 2011-10-31T16:39:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10828 |
| We've come a long way - I guess with today's streetlights everywhere it's not as important. :-) | 2011-10-31T15:11:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10826 |
| Welcome, and thanks! It is a bit odd, isn't it? It's supposed to be a day of chaos, but .... that's too much fun, eh? | 2011-10-31T15:10:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10825 |
| Chelsea: Sorry I was slow to see your post! Thank you, I would love to be part of a teach-in on economy and politics. We on the left naturally are wary of economics - it is the study of money, not the people and their efforts that make the true wealth of any nation. But we have to undersand what's being done to us so we can get ahold of it and make it work for us for a change. Thank you, I am looking forward to the St Paul effort - act locally! | 2011-10-30T04:07:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10811 |
| We spend more on defense than the rest of the world combined, or nearly so. I think that's what the Dems should trade for entitlement reform, the more I think of it. I once calculated that the roughly $720B we spend on defense (no one is entirely sure what the various wars are costing us) coube be cut by 1/3 and we'd still be at an inflation-adjusted level equivalent to 1988- ie, the height of Reagan's Cold War binge. So there - that's the trade-off for a Grand Deal that involves entitlement reform - and possibly tax reform as well. We could easily get ourselves to some serious deficit reduction in the process as well. |
2011-10-29T22:45:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10809 |
| Sheryl, it is a dangerous thing but it is very common. Our view of history is always shaped by our own times, no matter who or where we are. What we see must serve someone's purpose to keep coming back as strongly as it has the last 50 years or so - that's really what I'm getting at. | 2011-10-29T20:46:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10807 |
| Jack, I must've had a good teacher, too, but I can't remember exactly why. It just stuck, or sort of did at first and then grew. I don't really care if they were written by one guy or many, but ... the historical evidence it was one man is pretty heavy. What matters most, to me, is that these works have a heavy weight on our culture and our language, caught right in the middle of a huge transition to Modern English, and we have to deal with them. Me? I happen to love many of those plays - especially MacBeth. :-) Yes, I can still recite the "Queen is dead" soliloquy of MacBeth, at least mostly. And Hamlet's "To be or not to be", too. We had to memorize 'em. Thanks, Ms. Sheridan! :-) |
2011-10-28T16:50:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10798 |
| Jim, you're right that Shakespeare almost has this coming to him. Whenever I hear one more "Shakespeare didn't exist!" story I think of some great Lancasterian plot from beyond the grave as revenge for what Bill the Bard did to Richard III. :-) As to your other point, you can't really take this as far as that kind of personal motive and I didn't mean it that way at all. But to get this to the point where the resources to make and release a movie are put to bear - you have to wonder what the cultural motivation is in place to make all that happen & presume to make a buck off of it. So if you'll give me a separation between cultural motivation, which I'm describing, and personal motivation, which I'm never sure of (and could just be the desire to make a buck!) I hope it doesn't sit as badly. |
2011-10-28T16:45:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10797 |
| Thanks, Jan! | 2011-10-28T16:41:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10794 |
| There are many lies told for many "political" purposes because people tend to believe what they want to believe - that which reinforces their world view. History does get re-makes all the time - and Shakespeare was as guilty of that as anyone. But ultimately the virtue of the storytelling and how often it is repeated does make more difference than anything as abstract as "truth". It's a good lesson to keep in mind always, IMHO. | 2011-10-28T15:30:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10791 |
| Sheryl: It is a strange thing, isn't it? The idea that the rich create jobs THEREFOR we should give them more money is a two-step process, one that has big "maybes" at each step. But it seeped into the political dialogue in a way that it just can't e dislodged. Dunno. | 2011-10-27T22:28:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10782 |
| That would be an interesting compromise - might have to throw a few other things in there in the way of reform but I think what counts is moving forward. So much is changing that I'm afraid that we aren't in a position to master the world being created around us and will instead be mastered by it. You're right about entitlement reform, and I've been slow to take that on because I've focused on the immediate problem of the Depression. But you're right, at some point we have to do something about it. I'll think about it. |
2011-10-27T12:44:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10780 |
| I want to ask the question why did Democrats become Reagan Democrats I dunno ... you do your best to raise the kids up right and ... sob! Seriously, it's a good question. I was a big Paul Simon fan (and not just because bow ties are cool) but because he represented what I always have believed - you set up the system to fairly reward hard work & smart thinking, but in a way that takes care of the vulnerable. The rest you sort of let go once it's off and operating, until you see a problem - when you go in and fix it. Sadly, Paul Simon is dead. jack Kemp? Dunno, haven't heard from him in a while (tho I still have a #10 Buffalo Bills bobblehead from the late 60s around somewhere). We're just so timid about everything substantial any more. | 2011-10-26T19:56:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10777 |
| Welcome! While I never swear, I don't mind if commentors do, at least when it's appropriate. And $516 trillion, as you wrote it out (counting the zeros ... check!) is worth swearing about. There are times when something is so stupid that you have to think there is a dark, evil purpose behind it. The way the whole party got out of whack I'd say it was so evil that things went way back over to just plain stupid. There is no way the worldwide derivative position could possibly have ended well in 2007. The truth is that this is the low estimate - some have been as high as double that, and no one is really sure. Have a nice day! :-) | 2011-10-26T17:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10775 |
| Exactly. I left the door open a bit for the possibility that there are times when investment cash is short and cutting marginal rates on capital gains really is a good idea - I still think the main effect of Reagan's tax cuts in the 1980s was a Keynsian stimulus but I'll let that one go because the fight is not relevant at all. But no one can claim this is what needs to be done today. It just doesn't make a lick of sense. | 2011-10-26T17:08:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10774 |
| You're right, the term lost favor. I'm using it because I can't think of any other term for the whole theory that launched this mess. My guess is that it started playing badly as a term in the 90s and the Republicans deliberately dropped it. I still prefer "Voodoo Economics", but I'm old. :-) | 2011-10-26T17:05:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10773 |
| Welcome! You know, there are zillions of theories out there, but the one that tells the owners of media and so on "You can have your cake, eat it, and eat your neighbors'!" is the theory that will have a lot of traction - no matter how stupid it might be. So yes, that's the way it goes when you trust "experts" to run everything. | 2011-10-26T16:24:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10769 |
| Thanks. I hope that fellow Democrats can pick up on this - I'm doing my best to get towards a slogan that's useful. Not quite there yet, but close. | 2011-10-26T16:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10768 |
| Smithson: You have to stop reading my mind! One of the things I'm leading into is how the last 30 years or so have been about manipulating risk. Supply side, with its cheap money and implied bailout (which became real) as well as Black-Scholes-Merton, are all about personal benefit from investment with socialized risk. The use of the term "socialized" to describe offloading risk even when there are market forces involved may not suit some, but I can't think of a better term for it. The point is that the investor has offloaded it to a larger population that may or may not understand what they have (esp given the lack of transparency around CDSs). The result was a Credit Bubble and an amazing concentration of wealth. What else could possibly happen? If we don't change our attitude and get serious about risk / reward it will happen again. It's obvious that this cannot continue. What I started with was the theory that became an attitude and an embedded policy in our politics that has to change. There's also a specific course of action here, meaning there's something for heart and arm and brain (you know it's wrong, here's the reason, and here's what to do about it). But the bigger picture - Socialized Risk - is a bit harder to talk about. Wanted to start with a specific example to make the point more clear. But yes, we cannot afford Socialized Risk without Socialized Reward. If that means that we should talk about socializing banks, or at least regulating them as a public utility, then so be it. Those who would naturally object to these ideas have a position to fall back on - a more traditional view of risk / reward where BOTH are taken on by an investor or group of 'em. Either way, I'm OK with it. Better than the mess we have now. |
2011-10-25T18:49:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10754 |
| Yup. Not going anywhere soon. But if you want specific action that OWS should demand, this is it. | 2011-10-24T23:30:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10751 |
| So someone was paying attention! I was at the time, too, but I don't think I said anything that good. But Dorgan was 100% correct - and it's time to fix it. I think as we plan on moving ahead we have to look at the total sum of the damage the supply-side arguments and all their weird derrivative effects had on our economy. It's time to reject this nonsense all around. | 2011-10-24T21:06:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10748 |
| Anna: Sorry 'bout that, doesn't happen very often that I know of. But yes, I don't think too many people were paying attention back then. To this day "Glass-Steagall" is a bit of a conversation killer. But I have to do what I can. It is all about a single political theory that has very much been proven wrong (at least in the far extreme where we tend to practice it). | 2011-10-24T17:24:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10744 |
| Jim: Thanks. I do think that tying it all together is what is missing in both our media and our ability to organize right now. | 2011-10-24T15:58:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10741 |
| Laurie: That's why I wanted to write about this perspective and the forms it naturally creates - it's very common on the 'net, and rightfully so. Conversational styles of writing are going to slip into second person easily. But when we were young it was forbidden in school - very few people have practice doing it properly with a hand guiding how to do it. The result is often confusion. What seems accusatory may simply be an attempt to be engaging and intimate. It's worth thinking about as we all strive to be better communicators. | 2011-10-23T17:11:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10727 |
| Paul: Interesting choice, I'd have to see why he chose it. I can think of several works in second person, but that is the only one I have ever heard of in first-plural! Thanks. | 2011-10-23T04:26:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10725 |
| Smithson: Excellent example! I have a copy of that thin paper that was handed out that day, a very long story there. I should return it to its rightful owner. But it is very powerful. I forgot that example of second person, the battle cry / coach's speech. | 2011-10-22T14:20:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10719 |
| Jack: That's your pioneer-era spirit showing! :-) | 2011-10-21T21:32:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10713 |
| Anna: Thanks! It's Friday and I thought I'd do something a little more fun. Well, not entirely so but whatever. :-) | 2011-10-21T18:18:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10709 |
| Thanks, Jan! :-) Now that I don't have to maintain second person I can just say what I really think - it's a lot harder than it looks. It took me forever to edit this piece and get rid of the slides out of second person, so you do have to be very careful. But for some forms it works very well. | 2011-10-21T16:46:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10707 |
| Llama: Welcome, and thanks! It's more fun to me to find the people who almost made it but didn't quite. It took Antonio Salieri to make "Amadeus" a great story. :-) | 2011-10-19T19:36:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/19/scene-unseen-2/#comment-10698 |
| Thanks, guys. It is a recycle, and yes, I was sort of thinking of Jobs when it came back to me - but the principle is an old one that we should not ignore. | 2011-10-19T16:49:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/19/scene-unseen-2/#comment-10696 |
| Smithson: I agree hat was accepted, and I think there's more to go on deregulation along many lines. The left rank-and-file has far less apetite for regulation than the leadership does. The big exeption is banking, which many people I know are getting radical about. Glass-Steagall redux is a hot topic anymore. Time marches on. The meaning of "progressive" is changing. But I think we're getting somewhere. It's all what we value. |
2011-10-18T03:53:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10676 |
| Jack: First of all, you're pretty sharp. Second of all, I think most people have known this stuff is hooey for a long time even if the media has let it go as if it was too controversial to take on. Lastly, you ask "How can otherwise intelligent people still not acknowledge its failure?" That is an interesting one. So many people ignore the obvious in the name of what they believe it utterly baffles me. Sure, I can do this too, but I make a point of not letting it happen too often. There's a basic value at work here - truth has to win out over the personal. I think it's an expression of selfishness more than anything. Strange theory, no? |
2011-10-17T20:43:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10667 |
| Thanks Dale - just trying to get some organizing tools out there for people to refer to. Didn't even get into inequality, which is a whole 'nuther post. | 2011-10-17T18:05:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10664 |
| Anna: We did create jobs in 2008 - just not a lot. We can do it again and make it work - but there's no reason to try what we know doesn't work anymore. That's my main point. and I'll stand by it. I think you're right about temporary measures designed exclusively to goose consumer spending - those may not be as effective for the reasons you cite. | 2011-10-17T17:09:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10661 |
| Saturdays: Glad to see you! I agree, it's been a long strange trip - but times have changed. I only hope that solid Republicans become more engaged in the debate about what comes next and don't simply keep insisting they are right because I do think that everyone has something to add as we move forward. It's our nation, after all. We have to make it work for us. | 2011-10-17T16:34:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10659 |
| I thought I'd leave the bumpersticker for the comments, but there are several that come to mind: "Supply Side" was a con No more Voodoo Economics! |
2011-10-17T15:24:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10656 |
| Smithson: You and I both keep going back to 1968 and 1980. I'm never totally sure what to make of either of those years but I know they had long shadows. 1968 was the year things got so out of control that even Nixon started to look like a good idea. "We're all Keyneisans now", he told us, but it wasn't until 1980 that we understood that Keynesianism could be dressed up in a suit and called Friedmanism. It's a much-needed stimulus in bad times and an attempt at a free lunch in good times. I think that the Left has an obligation to take on Supply-Side and bury it once and for all. I sense that today's Republicans don't have the guts to defend Reagan any longer so that makes him vulnerable. That's my politician side talking - seize the middle ground and make Reagan the one you blame for everything. I think it will stick. The economist in me is really an engineer with an elaborate hobby, so it's a bit more confusing. I want a lot more stimulus now, but it seems to me that investments that either transform the economy along lines we know it's going or true investments in infrastructure are going to have far more payback than any kind of make-work or attempt to goose job creation directly. Been reading about job creation dynamics and I just feel that there is no magic formula other than a firm hand at the tiller and a good sense of which way the wind is blowing. So maybe Robert Reich, like a stopped watch, is right twice a day. Why not? I'd also love to free up headspace by throttling back the military's $700B plus budget, but I know that could cause other problems down the road. Mostly, I don't know what a Keynsian stimulus looks like after decades of large deficits - knowing full well that FDR never ran a deficit of more than about 5% of GDP. Back to those two pivotal years. 1968 I say we live with as we erected a stone monument to MLK 30 feet tall. 1980 I say we cut down and see who steps up to defend it. Mostly, I want that firm hand and dogma is never a substitute for leadership. |
2011-10-17T01:27:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10641 |
| GB: With you on all this, except I don't think we can ever get 99%. But 54% would definitely change everything about as thoroughly. I like how you say this isn't just a political statement - but about basic values that infuse corporations, consumerism, and so on. That is what we are talking about here. And I agree that we should pity people who think that having the most toys is a path to happiness because they will never be happy. What's at stake here are values, nothing more nor less. The world is changing whether we like it or not. Will we master that change and make it work for us or not? We have to know who we are first. That seems to be comign along pretty well. |
2011-10-16T20:05:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10637 |
| Molly: Must've gone right past each other before! I agree comepletely, thanks for the links. We'll get there. Dale: Good point. Had to start where it did to work! |
2011-10-14T19:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10611 |
| Jim: I'll give you that! But it has to keep up before they really get the message. | 2011-10-14T18:03:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10607 |
| Laurie: Excellent! Give 'em Hell! I'll be in on it next week after I catch up with a few things, which makes me feel lame but I have to pay the mortgage! A. Shubert: Welcome! Yes, we have to watch for that. I was going to write today about my recent conversations with my lefty friends (birds of a feather) and how they have so little support for the leadership, but we'll see how this plays out in the short term. I do think the protesters are right to be wary of leadership, especially now, but eventually something like leadership will have to bubble up. Let's hope it stays true to the message! |
2011-10-14T17:52:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10602 |
| Anna: The more we can refine and write down demands the more likely they are to happen. I do worry that it's too diverse but this is the early stage of coalition building. It's what comes next that I'm interested in - because I want this to be effective. | 2011-10-14T16:19:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10599 |
| Sheryl: The problem is that it would tear down everything that keeps us afloat right now. We really don't have control over the US Dollar because it is the global standard. There are a lot of benefits to that for those with money (ie, good jobs) but there's a big downside for the rest. As appealing as it would be to take on the world, it can't change until we give up our position of advantage. That is the problem. Anything we do to force the situation would make that change happen very quickly - which would be very bad. | 2011-10-13T18:48:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10584 |
| Thanks, Dale. Just trying to get the word out. | 2011-10-12T18:13:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10575 |
| Jim: Yes, it is true that we could put together a plan that is truly bad. But this is more like flailing around for a quick-fix. I don't think it is as popular as the Senators are counting on, at least not after talking with some people, so we'll see where this goes. But it is possible to do some very stupid (ie, Hooverian [thanks, Jack!]) things. | 2011-10-12T17:31:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10573 |
| Anna: I went a bit easy on them because I thought it was better to show how wrong they are rather than just say it. I'm trying to let readers make up their own minds because I'm not sure that this will be unpopular. Remember, I write to convince and/or start good arguments, not rally those who already agree with me. You and I are very much in line here, as is Jack, so I'll say it in the comments - this is about the stupidest thing the Senate could possibly come up with and it shows how desperate they are even as they avoid taking on what they should be doing. | 2011-10-12T15:13:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10569 |
| It is Hoover all over again. You are much smarter than about 63 Senators. :-) | 2011-10-12T14:54:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10567 |
| OK. :-) But I wouldn't blame ya for grumbling a bit. | 2011-10-10T21:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/10/nobel-prize-expectations/#comment-10546 |
| Jack: Well, the guy who came up with the underlying ideas that went into that quick rise in rates just got the Nobel Prize. I would guess you aren't happy about that. | 2011-10-10T19:27:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/10/nobel-prize-expectations/#comment-10544 |
| Jim: It is strange stuff to cover because it does seem obvious to us now. I thought about Greenspan, the first Fed superstar, as I was writing this - Sargent really made that whole strange scene possible. | 2011-10-10T16:52:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/10/nobel-prize-expectations/#comment-10542 |
| I thought I should get in the first story on the topic. It's my gig, after all. :-) The only problem is that in the future I don't think people will realize I'm on GMT / UTC when they look at the time of posting so they won't realize I got it out just hours after the announcement. |
2011-10-10T14:31:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/10/nobel-prize-expectations/#comment-10538 |
| Sheryl: Big changes are coming, one way or the other, I think. We're only seeing the start of it. It becomes a question of how we get control of the changes - do we master them into a world we want to live in, or do they master us? | 2011-10-08T16:31:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/07/whew/#comment-10514 |
| Jim: Uh, thanks? :-) I prefer good news, no matter what anyone says. I'm a realist, not a cynic. | 2011-10-07T20:25:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/07/whew/#comment-10500 |
| Dale: I do, too. I haven't been this hopeful in a while. Jack: It's about all we can do, isn't it? Anna: I think that's fair. That initial claims number fell below 400k again, suggesting that we'll add a lot more jobs in October if everything holds - 200k or more. I think that would be impressive if it happens. That would be contingent on a decent round of news out of Wall Street and Washington (as well as Europe!) so there's a lot of peril out there - but we have the foundation of something good happening. |
2011-10-07T16:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/07/whew/#comment-10495 |
| Here's a bit of a hint as to what we're up to - http://pubschoolmn.com/ What say? |
2011-10-06T12:55:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10467 |
| Dale: You are right, and I'm going to work on this a bit. Something is up, something is working. The transformation is happening. It's a matter of getting to move forward. In a sense this isn't all that different from Keynsian "pump priming", but it's heightened. Meta pump-priming, in a way. And part of the battle is getting people to survive through to the next economy. |
2011-10-05T21:48:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/05/scaring-ourselves-with-numbers/#comment-10460 |
| Anna: Yes, that's right, there are jobs being created. The more I think about it the more I'm sure that the Obama admin is managing the initial claims number - which is what seems to be the strategy with the AJA. It makes sense to me, at least as part of an overall strategy. This is a dynamic process of creation and destruction - just a matter of which is winning at any given time. | 2011-10-05T17:50:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/05/scaring-ourselves-with-numbers/#comment-10454 |
| Jim: Excellent point - things might be moving along a lot better than we think. I will see what evidence there is that this might be true. Jack: Yes, that's why some "pump priming" is essential! The case for stimulus / Keynesianism in a nutshell. |
2011-10-05T16:58:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/05/scaring-ourselves-with-numbers/#comment-10452 |
| Thanks, Randy - but man, do I have work to do now ... :-) | 2011-10-05T14:40:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10446 |
| Laurie: I agree, if your college age son doesn't have the skills to absorb what he'd like then probably no one does. If we're going to develop those skills I think it will take a combination of working through it together (with some help from tried-n-true methods) plus a change in how people write / assemble info. But I'm sure that it will be worked through socially because no one can say, "Do this and it'll all be better". So I want to get working on it. Randy: Yes, that's what I mean. I don't think anyone is served by the default PowerPoint "talk". So what do we do instead? Been reading up on teaching methods (thanks, Eric Austin!) and getting juiced up on how people learn and what might work. I figure a little theory, a little trial and error, and a bit of talking it out here will get us somewhere. Everyone: Expect the details shortly, later this week. The plan is coming together. Also, I'll say more on market tanking tomorrow - I expected this (tho not this harsh this quickly in October!) as some of us discussed at the last #EconChat on Sunday night. |
2011-10-04T14:16:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10429 |
| Jack: It will start with social media stuff, but I want to be able to go further with it. I'm not into "seminars" either for many reasons and I'm trying to find an alternative that fits both the topic of social media and my own approach. For now I want to hear what people think. Sounds like the "seminar" format is not popular, which is what I was hoping. | 2011-10-03T17:08:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10416 |
| Jim: I am working on the details, but I want to know what people think. It helps me to focus and broaden my perspective. Anna: That's the plan here. An informal environment where people talk things over - but with focus and facilitation. I have some ideas for making a little bit of money off of it, too, which is what is important for me right now. |
2011-10-03T16:28:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10414 |
| Jack: Missed your comment earlier! Yes, that's a little joke on my part. Follow the link and it ... sorta explains things. The ECB is supposed to be Santa Claus, as far as I can tell, but they aren't living up to their billing. | 2011-10-01T00:02:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/30/todays-bottom-stories/#comment-10372 |
| Jim: Crises - I use it a lot. :-) We did schedule that one, didn't we? Didn't work so well after all. Oh well. | 2011-09-30T22:19:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/30/todays-bottom-stories/#comment-10369 |
| Dale: I have no idea why Iowa either, but it had to be somewhere. Somewhere that really needed attention. :-) | 2011-09-30T18:48:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/30/todays-bottom-stories/#comment-10363 |
| Thanks, Anna, had to have a little fun. :-) | 2011-09-30T15:39:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/30/todays-bottom-stories/#comment-10360 |
| Sheryl: That's why organizing is so important - people have to unite behind intelligence and reason to make it happen. Yes, it's hard work, but many hands always lighten the load! How do we organize? This is a start ... | 2011-09-29T19:36:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/28/faith-in-us/#comment-10345 |
| Marshal Susie: Well, I'd love to see us get rid of them, but the process of trying so far has gotten us an even dumber Congress over the last 10 years. People have to learn to organize first to make sure there are good choices running, not just Tweedledum and Tweedledumber. Jim: Seems high to me, too, but yeah - there's always a few. |
2011-09-28T19:28:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/28/faith-in-us/#comment-10328 |
| Anna: I've been writing about the unique electoral prowess of the Millenials for a long time now, and I have to confess that I still don't get them. I doubt they will turnout in 2012 as they did in 2008, but they are staying involved far better than group their age - even surpassing the Baby Boomers in the 60s. It's impressive. And they do still have that faith, apparently. | 2011-09-28T17:30:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/28/faith-in-us/#comment-10324 |
| Jack: Yup. The poll simply confirmed what I believed, but rarely hear - no more than 1 in 12 people really think the Feds are "always" wrong. That's pretty much a fringe group. | 2011-09-28T15:59:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/28/faith-in-us/#comment-10320 |
| Laurie: If you believe that the game is all about electoral politics at this stage, some level of blame will be useful - I'll give you that. But the election is still a long way off (no matter how much CNN et al hype it!). In the meantime I think it's best to focus on forward movement and get done what we can. If nothing else, it'll prove the point. Two good links here, as always, but I especially like how you gave us a whole debate. I agree with Benin that it's fixing the Democratic Party that is important, and I'm trying to do that. The more we are the party of getting things done the better off America will be - and the votes will come through, I think. it's not sexy, it's not showy, and it does need to come down to a bumpersticker slogan or two to work, yes. But I think that's what we have to do. |
2011-09-27T14:03:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/#comment-10297 |
| Jack: Thanks! >blush!< But yes, I agree, this should have seemed like at least a good question to ask circa 2007-2008. People who are touting it now just can't be paying attention. That's not to say that the supply-side argument is never valid. There may well be a time and place when investment is the limiting factor in an economy. But not now. There is $2T in capital not being used because the perceived risk is way out of line - more capital will not make a difference today. | 2011-09-26T21:01:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/#comment-10289 |
| Jan: Thanks! It would be nice to get the message out a bit further, especially if I was paid for it. | 2011-09-26T18:33:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/#comment-10286 |
| Anna: Inflation is a headache, but it is the way to a net below zero "real" rate. That's why the Fed ah an internal inflation target now, probably about the 3.5% that the 30yr is getting. But they don't tell us just what it is. But no, this does not help the "liquidity trap" one bit because it makes risk even less palatable. You wind up with a LOT of fear, I think. Bottom line to me is that there's only so much the Fed can do and they have done it (as I have been saying for , what 3 years now!) Jim: You're right, we can't flail around. But there are many things that we know need to be done and we should simply go at them. Implementing the Simpson-Bowles framework would go a long way to restoring confidence, for example. A program of infrastructure catch-up is so long overdue. Education grants would help a lot (see last Friday's piece). So I think a soup made up of a lot of items that come together as a single "plan" could easily be fashioned and would give everyone a lot more confidence that we're going to get out of this. If they were really good I think they'd look at the items I listed for transformation and Obama could have a lot ot run on in 2012. |
2011-09-26T16:49:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/#comment-10283 |
| Laurie: I am happy to be countered with a good example! I'm very glad to hear that there are some kids with a lot of confidence because, as I tried to note, my daughter is pretty confident in herself but not completely so. I don't know how much the Carlson School is valued over a trade like Engineering, but we are blessed with a well-regarded school that's still mostly affordable. Getting through it in 3 years (as opposed to the usual 5-6) sounds like a good plan. I thin kit's easy to put too much on a 4 yr degree and I hope people don't go too far into debt to get one, but I also think there's a real baseline that you have to pick up to be able to do more than survive. Some can pick it up on the streets,to be sure, but college is going to be at least easier. Those who are getting left behind before they even have a HS diploma really are screwed anymore. Jobs where you could grown and learn from the ground up are pretty rare in this non-manufacturing world. |
2011-09-25T15:53:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/23/a-realistic-generation/#comment-10257 |
| Sheryl: I haven't gotten into how mad kids are, but the ones I've talked to are just very realistic and focused on what they can do. I agree on the selfishness - no one believes in organizing anymore. That's been hurting us far more than people ever talk about because no one seems to understand what can happen when people work together. This saddens me far more than anything else, to be honest. | 2011-09-24T18:29:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/23/a-realistic-generation/#comment-10243 |
| Sara: Well, I wasn't specifically targeting McDoogles as something I don't understand, since I often think that I know just what's in that stuff. But .. if that's what happens to it (or, more accurately, doesn't happen) then I think I can file it under at least "mystery" if not "I do not understand". :-) | 2011-09-23T18:24:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10226 |
| Dale: This is a big subject. There are six official definitions of unemployment, called U1 through U6. The first is the "headline" number The last one includes "underemployment", or people who aren't working as much as they want to, and is the most comprehensive. It is not broken down by age. There are two big problems with U1. The first is that it does not count "Discouraged Workers", or people who are not actively looking for work. That's a problem because many of them want or need a job but have given up for now. The other is that it does not include anyone who has worked at all, part time or as a freelancer. Many unemployed people do not have unemployment insurance, especially the young who never had a job in the first place, so they have to work somehow in order to survive - and then they don't count. So U6 is a better indicator all around. In order to estimate U6 among the young I used the typical 2:1 ration, but as I stated above it's probably much higher - young people never have unemployment bennies to fall back on and usually take just about anything. I've heard that roughly 40% is a reasonable figure for 16-24 year old net underemployment and I believe it - but we can justify 36% reasonably. It could even be much higher, but those figures are not maintained. |
2011-09-23T16:58:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/23/a-realistic-generation/#comment-10225 |
| Anna: I'm with you as far as these kids go. But I think it means a lot more to the Next Economy when there are limited skills defined around surviving. For example: many tell us the Next Economy will rely on a relentless advance of technology - but if fewer people have engineering degrees or serious background in science, how will that happen? Jack: It wasn't too much different in the 80s, except we didn't have the draft. College was there, many options were affordable, and everyone was encouraged to go into it. I don't think college is or should be for everyone (which is to say High School should be different, in the end) but what I hear is that kids who a generation ago would have gone to college will not, largely because they don't see the return on investment and are concentrating on getting by ("survive" is their word, BTW). That's just not good. |
2011-09-23T16:23:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/23/a-realistic-generation/#comment-10223 |
| Dale: Yes, I was mostly kidding around here, but this is part of a three-part real plan - balanced diet, a little exercise, and don't eat what you don't understand. More or less what Grandma said! :-) | 2011-09-22T15:50:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10195 |
| Jack: I don't mean to yank yer chain too hard, I know the appeal of those things. Heck, I eat even worse many times. Ready for the big confession? I eat those sandwiches you get at Holiday or SA gas stations and have to microwave! This particular post came out of a Sunday breakfast conversation with the kids. I'm trying to teach them the right thing, even if my own gas station eating habits are really atrocious. :-) |
2011-09-21T20:44:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10177 |
| Jim: I think this is the most popular diet there is. I beat the Atkins Diet without even trying! Whoo-Hoo! :-) | 2011-09-21T19:38:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10173 |
| Jack: I dunno, I think I understand what you get from McDoogles - a heart attack! No, seriously, I have cravings for that stuff once in a while. Funny. Anna: Been too serious lately, had to branch out some. :-) Jan: Yes, this is a way to think about the processed foods you eat at the very least. A little bit of highly processed flour may not be a big deal, but something full of stuff you don't know? Eh, not so much. I like to cook and I tend to eat mostly fresh stuff. It works. :-) |
2011-09-21T16:36:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10170 |
| Laurie: Interesting that you don't know anyone in a real bind right now. I thought nearly everyone did at this point, so your friends and neighbors are doing pretty well. Good for them! But we all agree that new opportunities are limited and that's what I usually focus on. I do want to get people more engaged because I don't see how we'll get out of this any other way. Keep those links coming, there is a lot of good discussion out there! | 2011-09-20T12:45:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10130 |
| I just want to highlight this article that Smithson left that I re-read more carefully. When the problem isn't money, then more money can't solve the problem. http://tinyurl.com/3kxomhd Time article, "Lessons from Japan" This is good stuff, it's a lot of what I've been saying all along but it uses Japan's "Lost Decade" (really two now) as an example. There's a lot to learn here. We need an engaged political system that is capable of trying new things and, yes, sometimes failing before we can really implement all the lessons we have to learn. That's the hard part. But I want to encourage everyone to be engaged, whether I agree with you or not, and make your contributions A Democratic Republic is made of this stuff, and it's the strength that we need to get past this and into a new era of progress and growth for all. |
2011-09-20T02:41:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10115 |
| Smithson: Great stuff, as always! Glad you agree that we have to do something. I still say that once we get through survival mode we have to work on transforming the economy - something that government can only kick start at best - but we do have to survive first. Also like what you said about the Health Care plan - I never did understand how businesses got stuck with the tab for health care in the first place, let alone that anyone would attempt to defend such a sill system (I know, no one really defends it, they just ignore it to criticize the other guy they don't like). | 2011-09-19T20:39:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10106 |
| Jack: I agree. The fight has been engaged and it's time for action. We're starting to get somewhere and this is no time to back away from our leadership - if anything, it's time to reward Obama for his action with our support. | 2011-09-19T16:58:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10101 |
| Anna: There probably are more numbers in the White House and they probably are all pretty bad - but this is what we have. We've known for a year now how well Initial Claims correlates with the next unemployment report but the last six weeks it's correlated very well with Obama's action. :-) I agree that action is what is important. As much as I'd like to see us moving to transform the economy there are political realities and immediate needs. If people start to respond well I hope we move on to the stuff that will really make s difference, tho. |
2011-09-19T16:30:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10097 |
| Bruce: Thanks! It is a natural fit to start building rail lines, especially with so many construction workers part of the unemployment roles. Better to pay them to do something! I haven't been on this one for a while but it is really important for our future. | 2011-09-17T15:44:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/16/the-next-economy/#comment-10044 |
| Anna: Because changing our employment rules will take time and necessarily move slowly, I would contend that this makes getting started now even more imperative. I think we are many years behind already. Besides, I really hate the "Self Employment Tax". :-) But I agree on education - no one is happy with the state of education, it seems. That is very telling. |
2011-09-16T20:06:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/16/the-next-economy/#comment-10031 |
| Jack: These aren't in any particular order, and yes I agree with you. It seems that just about every discussion I've ever had on the next generation or the next economy always becomes a discussion of Education specifically. There is a very universal thread here that spans all political ideologies, too. Jim: I don't know that infrastructure needs tell us much directly about the next economy, but we certainly have to be better at keeping up with them than we have been. I left it out because I couldn't make a direct connection. If you have some ideas I'd love to hear them! |
2011-09-16T17:11:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/16/the-next-economy/#comment-10027 |
| Laurie: The Freelancer's Union made me think of Larry the Cable Guy - "Git 'r Done!" I think that's the world we're in now. Need to make something happen? Slip a guy a few bucks and it'll happen. T: It''s a constant scramble, isn't it? But you're surviving and so am I. This has been a bad month for me, and I think a lot of us. But like you I'll do just about anything to make a buck. Been a while since I did any finish carpentry, for example. Just have to keep your eyes open for any opportunity and maybe even a freebie if you're sure it has a chance of leading to something. Thanks for your story! |
2011-09-15T14:08:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/14/the-gig-economy/#comment-10002 |
| Jim: The other end of what Jack mentioned. Yes, what is being done to people under 25 will probably merit a revolution one day. We have some bad retribution coming, I think. Dan: Bingo. It's not as though there's a finite pie to be divided, but ... there kind of is in the end. Strangling the middle class won't get the rich anywhere in the long run, either, because the hearts and arms and brains of people are what create all wealth - letting them go to waste wastes the greatest resource our nation (or any nation) has. So you can imagine what the highest possible wealth of the nation requires - and this ain't it. |
2011-09-14T20:46:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/14/the-gig-economy/#comment-9991 |
| Jack: You and a lot of other people I know. I haven't been able to find good stats on the numbers - so many your age fall into the "discouraged worker" category and fall off the Oh-Fish-Eye-Al gummint rolls. If someone knows where I can find a breakdown of U6 unemployment by age I'd be very grateful (a google search includes way too much garbage). But I know there are a LOT of you out there. | 2011-09-14T18:56:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/14/the-gig-economy/#comment-9985 |
| Anna: Thanks. I think this is one of those things we don't talk about out of shame. It wasn't that long ago that "freelance" meant "unemployed", and in the face of superstar images of wealth thrown at us in popular culture a lot of people feel they are an underclass, left behind and isolated. I think we all need to talk about this a lot more and realize that this is the way work will be done by a lot of people - today and tomorrow. There is no shame in being able to survive in the face of adversity! | 2011-09-14T15:31:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/14/the-gig-economy/#comment-9981 |
| Jan: Thanks, it's worth trying. If nothing else I want to separate the people who are reasonable from the ones who are not. | 2011-09-13T19:11:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9961 |
| Laurie: I agree with you on Republican leadership, but I'm also pretty skeptical of Democratic leadership. I think we've hit the point where it's up to people to put pressure on the leaders to do the right thing. I'm trying to reach out to ordinary Republicans who are, from my read, pretty disappointed as well. Think about the debt ceiling issue - if you're someone who is Republican because you manage your stock portfolio and support business generally, how can you be happy with the volatility that has hit the markets since that? How can you even imagine risking default? There are a lot of people I don't agree with generally who seem to have a common interest with me right now, and I'm trying to reach out to them. Screw the leadership. We need people to speak out on both sides for sanity. I'm taking some advice Jack gave me a full month ago on this one. I'm also going to say that I'm for Obama no matter what and we Progressives have to support him where we can and give him space. I was disappointed in the AJA but I know why he started where he did - and I support him. Let's work to give him room for the next step as we back him on this one. The 2012 election might get ugly, sure. But the voices of reason won't have a chance unless they organize - and start doing it now. Will it work? I hope so. But it sure won't work if we don't get going and try. |
2011-09-13T15:25:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9957 |
| Jack, Sheryl: If someone wants to take this as a challenge I do think we'll know who they are. I think it's long past time to put up with partisan games and silliness. | 2011-09-12T22:23:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9947 |
| Jim: I'm doing my best to reach out and not put this in partisan terms. If we can all cut out the games right now I'll just forget who is to blame for everything and we can get right at fixing things. I'm sure we'll have some serious disagreements as to how to do that so it's best that we all concentrate on what we have to do rather than who is to blame for what. That's the message I hope we can take from this, at least. |
2011-09-12T21:19:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9943 |
| Thanks, Anna! It struck me how much I had forgotten this spirit as well, so I should make it clear that I'm as guilty of what I describe here as anyone else. | 2011-09-12T16:44:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9938 |
| Laurie: Great stuff, as always. Robert Reich is my top choice for the adult supervision of a new generation of Progressives. :-) I would like to hear more about what he has to say because, as a labor guy, he did call this a "Depression" long before most people were willing to go there. The more I think about the AJA the more I realize that this simply has to pass and we have to get things moving. I wish there was more here, but we have to start with something that has a chance of passing - and that's what Obama did. Always a pragmatist. Should I read in the tea leaves that he doesn't realize we should do a lot more? No, I don't think so - but it's up to us to put that pressure on Obama and, especially, Congress. That's where people like Reich come in. If you go, tell us what he said! I'll have to read the transcript. We've been holding what I call #EconChat on twitter Sundays at 7PM CDT (midnight GMT), just when Japan's stock market opens for the week. Would love to have you and anyone else interested. Maybe if there's a Reich transcript up we can talk about that. |
2011-09-10T15:14:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9889 |
| Jim: I hope it's not like that, but even if it is this could be what rids the nation of the extreme part of the right wing forever. Perhaps Obama is going to use their inflexibility against them, why not? But that implies that this is the most we can expect for a long time - and that would be a shame. | 2011-09-09T19:31:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9871 |
| Jack: This was a hard post to write because I don't want to sound either too negative or too positive about this plan. Part of me says: This is a Depression and yes, we have to do whatever we can. FDR didn't know what the Hell he was doing, but he knew he had to do something. So does Ben Bernanke. It's about time we get something though that builds some infrastructure and gets something moving again. If this is all we can get because of the composition of Congress, then let's get this through. The other part says: This is far from adequate and another half-measure that will lull everyone into thinking that they should just not pay any attention and everything's all hunky and/or dory. The details of estimating the number of jobs are not important - basically, something around 2.2M jobs give or take. That's both not bad and not adequate at the same time. The problem is that big. I appreciate your opinion here and want you to know that I'm pretty damned underemployed as well, so I get it. I hope that this proposal goes through and it's the start of some serious cooperation by the Republicans. We'll just have to see. But I just can't see this as anything other than a start. |
2011-09-09T18:07:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9867 |
| On Fiscal Multipliers: I didn't mean to go this route, but what the heck. According to this pdf paper by the San Francisco Fed (aka "L" :-) ) the net from the 2008 stimulus (ARRA) 8.7 jobs were created with each million bucks. That suggests that with $440B we should expect 3.8M jobs overall - including the estimated 1.6M, or a net gain of 2.2M jobs. That's a lot better than I expected, frankly. I think I was a bit too hard on this plan. However, it's no more than about a quarter of the jobs gap that we have, so even at that level the proposal will not end the Depression. | 2011-09-09T16:55:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9865 |
| Dan: Thanks, that's a good enough lead. I need to track a lot of this down when I have more time, maybe this weekend. Anna: I didn't make my own estimate because I don't want to guess at a fiscal multiplier. The best article I've seen on the concept was in the Economist a long time ago (we're all using inline links now, I guess!) and there is a ton of debate on the right number. I think the right answer is closer to a million, but it's just a guess. I also see that EPI was saying the job gap is about 11M, which is on the high side - the range is 8M - 12M and I tend to go with the lower number. If nothing else, creating 8M jobs & then seeing where we are would be one Hell of a start! Do I need to write a piece on fiscal multiplier? I guess I never thought it would be important in the debate. Let's see if Dems use that EPI article (which appears to have come from the Obama administration). | 2011-09-09T16:26:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9863 |
| Dan: I missed that, thanks. I will go back and look that over. Health care counts as "consumer spending", so when we look at the graphs that show insane growth in consumer spending to 78% of all GDP by 2004 we all have to remember that health care is horribly distorting that number. What you're telling me here is that it's distorting numbers all over. Great. I need to plow through all that stuff and figure out what's really happening. | 2011-09-09T14:50:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9858 |
| Laurie: Great article, as usual. Two things stand out to me - how universal it is becoming to use a 30 year cycle, starting with 1980 as the origin of our current economy (and its problems) and the solid discussion of the role of productivity. Both of these were not questioned just a decade ago, but now the 80s and the ensuing increases in productivity are up for scrutiny. Fascinating. I think it's obvious to start with 1980 and look forward, but the fact that this is hitting popular opinion so easily without debate astounds me. If nothing else, I'd expect Republicans to defend Reagen more effectively - and I have a few arguments ready if they do. I can't wait to see where this debate goes, frankly - it's very healthy and so far seems to be very factual and matter-of-factual. Thanks again! |
2011-09-08T14:01:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/07/a-decade-or-so/#comment-9830 |
| Anna: I'm keeping my expectations low for the speech and, yes, somewhat predictable aftermath of no, no, and no. I also agree that bin Laden will go down as a footnote in history, but he did do a lot of damage - largely because the excuse of chasing him down caused more damage than he did to our civil liberties, political climate, and our economy. | 2011-09-07T21:57:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/07/a-decade-or-so/#comment-9819 |
| Dan: Was trying to be neutral, but I do blame the right far more myself. You are right that increased globalization and the rise of the developing world are far more interesting than 9/11 in terms of big changes, but from a purely US economy - centric position I think that the place of 9/11 is underestimated. But yes, I think my piece on containerized cargo will stand up to time much better, for example. :-) | 2011-09-07T21:18:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/07/a-decade-or-so/#comment-9817 |
| Jack, Dale: That wasn't the direction I was going, but it does seem to be true. I'm more interested in people looking back with a clear eye so that we can learn something from it all. I think there are a lot of lessons here. I didn't say a think about the Iraq War in part because I still have only some speculation as to how/why we were sucked into that in the first place, but there are probably a lot of lessons to be learned from that sorry chapter, too. | 2011-09-07T18:21:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/07/a-decade-or-so/#comment-9813 |
| Laurie: Excellent articles, as always! The commentary by EJ Dione is, well, up to his usual high standards - thank you especially for that. Everything in our world comes from work of some kind, and this has been known by any thinker, both famous and not, for thousands of years. Why has it become controversial now? It's more than denying history, it's denying reality. You make such excellent contributions to Barataria that I can't help but think that I should do something to highlight you more - or encourage you to have your own blog! Remember this, everyone - just follow Laurie's links and you'll see something good. Thank you so much! |
2011-09-06T16:54:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/05/defined-by-work/#comment-9780 |
| Anna: That is an excellent idea, and very pertinent. I've been told that family and friends are usually the best leads for jobs, and my experience more or less confirms this. But just to lift someone's spirits and get them up and around is very important as well. It's hard for people to keep going after a while, especially once they feel like they've been shoved to the curb with the trash. Thank you for the suggestion, it is a vital one! |
2011-09-05T20:18:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/05/defined-by-work/#comment-9764 |
| Jack: It's a problem that this can happen in what was not long ago unquestionably the greatest nation on earth. But I know that we all experience downturns and that hard times are just part of life. What really worries me is the extent to which classes are separating and people don't think about those who are in this situation. We can get through this if we stick together and remember what is important - our humanity, not our wealth. | 2011-09-05T18:39:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/05/defined-by-work/#comment-9762 |
| Laurie: Ha! BTW, I loved your article so much I posted it at facebook where it's been shared by a number of people already, so it's resonating very well with many folks. No one likes industrial schools and we all want to find a different model. But be prepared to be a bit blown away by Gatto - he's a bit much to take in on one reading in my experience. But it's very good stuff IMHO and at least worth talking about. | 2011-09-03T14:51:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/02/labor-creates-all-weath/#comment-9725 |
| Laurie: Excellent article! I'd like everyone to read it, it's really good stuff. But I have to tell you the most annoying thing about Barataria is that I whip out a post about 4 years old in response to nearly everything. Oh, yeah, I have one on factory schools: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/09/27/widgets/ Yes, I agree with the article completely. Education as we know it is designed as an enormous factory to produce factory workers - who are, incidentally, all unemployed now. And so it goes .. Thanks! |
2011-09-03T03:46:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/02/labor-creates-all-weath/#comment-9711 |
| April: Sorry I was slow to respond - here's an article from a source I don't usually use but I think is right on (and has the BLS source) http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/24/1010239/-Unemployment-rate-among-young-workers-hits-record-high I want to add two ideas to this list that I have been convinced are important since I put this together. The first is increased support for education and retraining. I think that this will help in the medium term. Workers have to learn new skills and I think a Federal program that identifies obvious skill gaps and pays tuition (perhaps even 100% upon graduation) would be beneficial. There does seem to be a component of "Structural Unemployment" in this economic transformation that we have to tackle: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/05/16/structural-unemployment/ The other important thing that needs to be done is that the Federal Reserve has to stop allowing member banks to park large amounts of money, with interest. At the very least, the roughly $1.5T in deposits should no longer gain interest (which is to say, they can be marked to the 3 month TBill, which is currently about zero interest). The Fed should also look at a cap of total deposits by any member bank. http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/03/velocity-of-federal-reserve-deposits/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/09/29/what-happened/ |
2011-09-02T16:21:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-9699 |
| Anna: Yes, this is my warmup for the speech. You can see what I'm looking for, although my plan was laid out some time ago here. I'll update it in a bit to include two revisions, one your retraining/ education ideas. Jack: Yes, we would be screwed if something like Pearl Harbor happened today. Oh, wait ... it did 10 years ago ... well, youknowwhatImean. :-) We are very weak largely because we have been importing heavily for a decade (really three). The jobs market is heavily defined by manufacturing, especially in some places (see next). Jim: Sorry, I ran out of space. Here's the focus on Ohio, as an example of a traditional manufacturing state: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=53254&category_id=0 Note that in the last decade Ohio lost about 500k jobs, about 9% of all jobs they had. 400k of them were in manufacturing, generally the highest paying for the Middle Class. You can see their voting record, flipping from one party to the next, written in that employment graph IMHO. |
2011-09-02T16:11:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/02/labor-creates-all-weath/#comment-9698 |
| Jack: It is a lot more than defending the nation - it's about preserving a bygone era at tremendous cost. We just can't do it anymore. Laurie: good clip! Obama has often said the right things, but he doesn't really sell them. And the left hasn't done a good job of putting pressure on everyone to even talk about this stuff. Yes, I'm trying to lead into whatever he proposes in a week and get people thinking about how we can - and perhaps have to - afford a serious jobs program. Whatever he proposes it will take some oomph to get through. People have to be more engaged and help push the things that really matter or else we'll get more of the same. |
2011-09-01T13:34:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/31/opportunity-cost/#comment-9659 |
| Jack: It was fixed! There has to be more than just the military that we can think about, but ... fergooshsakes if we can't start there we're in serious trouble. We do have to save Medicare and that will mean serious choices and all of that, I understand, but .... none of this is even close to the defense budget. Thanks for the whole statement from the man who led us to our greatest victory ever. It's still relevant, maybe even moreso. |
2011-08-31T21:47:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/31/opportunity-cost/#comment-9637 |
| Dale: I don't think most people know how expensive defense has become. The Pentagon has proven unauditable for 20 years now, so it's not a matter of spending what we must to remain safe - it's a matter of systemic abuse of a blank check. It simply has to come up, and soon. Anna: Thanks! You are right - I use infrastructure all the time but education (I hate the term "retraining"!) would be useful. We could easily design a program that supports universities, community colleges, and trade schools alike and thus allows consumers to make their own choices as to what matters. That would certainly help Structural Unemployment greatly, if nothing else, and as part of the package I've described before could be very powerful. |
2011-08-31T17:30:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/31/opportunity-cost/#comment-9633 |
| Smithson: I have no doubt that cutting off spending now would be a terrible mistake - while I'm trying to remain a bit centrist on some policy debates I don't see any justification for balancing the budget right now. And I can see that, given the Euroworld's tendency towards austerity, we're going to be in a good position to grow. But I still think that Keynesianism - in the sense that spending, any spending, gets new money out there - has been proven wrong as well. Most of my writing in the last year has been focused on the kind of spending that we can do to transform the economy, as opposed to spending on propping things up as they are. I still think there is a distinction to be made. But we can't turn off the tap and have a contraction, not at all. I don't regard that as even remotely sensible. I hope that explains my (somewhat complex) view of QE without a lot of words, among other things. |
2011-08-31T13:07:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9620 |
| Smithson: I won't argue with you - I'll leave that to history when it's all shaken out. What bothers me is the perverse logic that greeted QE more than the act itself. It was designed to lower TBill rates, but instead increased them - by increasing confidence that everything was under control. The Debt Ceiling debacle accomplished what Bernanke could not by making it clear that we're in uncharted territory and there was real risk - again, the opposite of what a downgrade should have done. Yet, through it all, the sense that there's already too much risk out there has dominated the inability to get QE cash out of the Fed vaults and into the economy. I'm not faulting Bernanke for his actions, but I am faulting leadership generally for not giving us a proper sense of urgency. I still don't know how history will write this up - once we get out of Bizarro world, that is. Perhaps my empathy circuits are overloaded because I've got the worry everyone else should have bottled up in me, but this just isn't going well. Psychology is beating out logic - and Bernanke is exhibiting cool logic all over the place. The reassurance he give us is actually disquieting. We'll have to see how it all shakes out. |
2011-08-31T01:15:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9606 |
| Everyone: I want to make it clear that my opinions of the Fed's actions are not clearly expressed in this article - on purpose. I do have a lot of sympathy for Bernanke but I question much of what's been done (which is, however, expressed in the two links to old Barataria articles). Our current Depression compares very well to the Panic of 1893, one of the true bona fide depressions in US history by any measure. An excellent article on it can be found here: http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/whitten.panic.1893 It's a lot of reading, but I think you'll find it fascinating. Note also that the government response was pretty weak and GDP did not recover for 7 years. | 2011-08-30T21:35:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9602 |
| Jack: Exactly - that sharp spike was all about a very sudden shift in the economy caused by demobilization. The government was careful to avoid a similar effect in 1946, but there was still some problem. In both cases loose money and lower interest rates eventually tapped pent-up demand by consumers that went unrealized during the war and recovery was swift. Protectionism was normal in 1920, so the (quite large) increases in tariffs was not a problem at all - but was clearly a greater tax on the rich than on the poor, it's worth noting. | 2011-08-30T20:22:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9599 |
| Stealth: That's not true. The "Depression" of 1920 is only called that because of a sharp decline in prices (deflation), but in all other ways was very similar to a common recession. It was caused primarily by the end of WWI and the end of government spending in the Wilson Administration in 1919. The Federal Reserve increased rates starting in 1919, but sharply reduced them in 1921 - and the crisis eased substantially right away. In addition the Harding administration greatly increased import tariffs (the biggest source of Federal income then) to pay for relief at the start of 1921. So it's a special event that was generally caused by changes in Federal Reserve and Government policies (related to the end of the war) and then met with new changes in policy by both agencies, ending it fairly quickly. | 2011-08-30T17:58:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9596 |
| Laurie: Contrast that article with the earlier comment by Kevin. The Fed is the only body trying to do anything, and people at both ends hate them for it. If the Republicans really want a Fed to sit back and do nothing they have, once and for all, aligned themselves with Hoover. It's very stupid. More to the point, I think people will see though that nonsense and reject the Republicans in part to the extent they rip on Bernanke. Right now people don't have a strong opinion of the guy, but I think that raising his profile will raise his support http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/poll-watchers-bernanke-who-congress-hits-new-lows-again-and-love-vs-science-for-women/2011/08/16/gIQAdGzaJJ_blog.html And yes, you read through me a little bit when I made this post. People have been dumping on a good man for long enough, IMHO. |
2011-08-30T01:59:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9584 |
| Kevin: I'll agree that the Fed is far more beholden to on the rich, but a stable currency benefits everyone. I know that Bernanke is trying to achieve that, even if it's not clear that it's working. Volatility is an easy way for traders to fleece small traders, both on the way up and the way down. Dale: I'm still not sure what to make of Greenspan. The big complaint I have about Big Al was that he was a seriously political animal, which Bernanke tries hard not to be. But he's been stuck in this activist role lately that ropes him into pseduo-politics. Not good, really. |
2011-08-30T01:20:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9582 |
| Anna: Yes, it was Bush, and I do believe that Bernanke was chosen for some good reasons. He had been talking publicly about deflation for a solid 3 years at that point, so his expertise was very clear to everyone. | 2011-08-29T18:55:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9576 |
| Jim: It took me 800 words to say that, but I was trying to be a lot nicer. :-) No, really, I think people should know a lot more about Bernanke because I think that it's unfair to dump on the one guy who seems to be trying to do something other than preen himself and make speeches. What he does may not always work, but he shares the stage of history with FDR in that department - a place where he'd much rather be than sitting around watching everything fall down. | 2011-08-29T15:30:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9571 |
| Sheryl: I am working on it! But yes, I doubt things will get better as long as people are as selfish as they are now. It's tough to organize people who don't think beyond themselves. That is step #1, IMHO. | 2011-08-28T23:38:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9549 |
| Laurie: Social Media as a connector is something I enjoy writing about, but I keep it to a minimum because others write on it and reader polls suggest it's not the strong suit. But I do get to it once in a while, if for no other reason than to elicit comments. The Lakoff "frames" way of looking about public topics/debates is something I sort of assume, meaning it's worth talking about fairly often. :-) But framing the New Progressive thinking is what I think we're getting to after we use economists like Minsky (and, BTW, Graciela Chichilnisky for her work on Game Theory, even if she's more known for climate change!) and linguists like Lakoff along with a few political theorists. Heck, maybe I should make a list of "experts" that we're pushing together, eh? |
2011-08-27T21:38:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9531 |
| Smithson: As always, you bring up many great topic. First of all, it's impossible to say enough about Minnesota's own Norman Borlaug. I did my best when an interesting story came through: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/11/04/demographic-destiny/ I haven't said much about agriculture here partly because I'm not an expert and partly because I admit I am a bit confused by all the different things I read. But we do feed the world! It's a great triumph of the US - and yet the American Farmer is always just barely getting by it seems. Your angle, which is the perception of success and what that means to policy, is a very interesting one. I love it when I get something to think about! I have been talking about China's need to invest in T-Bills to maintain a US Dollar reserve against their need to invest in themselves. It has to kill them to have to take on our debt and they will certainly put pressure on ditching the US Dollar as the reserve currency when they are up against the wall. We have to come into conflict at some point because of their own internal conflict as well as our own (but aren't all wars really like that, economic or shooting ones?) http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/ Good stuff to think about on a beautiful weekend day, thanks! |
2011-08-27T14:52:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9521 |
| Dale: Trying to get a new Progressive movement together, seeing as the one we used to have is pretty well spent & useless. That's going to take some intellectual leadership, for lack of a better way of putting it. This doesn't lend itself to becoming dogma like the right-wing stuff has become, but ... wait ... that's a good thing ... :-) | 2011-08-26T21:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9500 |
| Jim: I can't create a political movement out of nothing. But we all can together if we figure out what we need. That's why comments are so important - they help refine and reshape the thinking into something more relevant and more easy to say. Having worked on my own "elevator speech" constantly for years, I have to tell you that I can deliver several of them quickly and easily - much better than they were the first time I tried. I felt we were getting a bit deep into how to interpret the data of our lives (which is getting lousy again) and it was time to pull back. Why is Initial Claims such a good number to follow? Because it's closely linked to business health, especially in manufacturing (a key industry) and we get it in very real time. It's those connections that make it useful, and understanding those connections help us to use it without falling into a bad "assumption trap". As Minsky tells us we get used to certain behaviors and keep doing them long after they are useful, don't want to do that. |
2011-08-26T16:37:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9486 |
| Anna: Not only that, but Initial Claims were revised up and the new data shows we're back at 412k per week - keep in mind that 430k appears to be complete stagnation. Fears of a "Double Dip" (which I'd call one long Depression, 'natch) are being realized. | 2011-08-26T16:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9484 |
| Anna: I think it's best to go back and forth - that's why I wanted to write all this down in the first place. As we've gotten more into specifics and solutions it seemed like a good time to pull back a bit - especially after I got the reminder of how much Minsky has influenced my thinking. Yes, this is your summer reading list! :-) Seriously, I have a funny feeling that people will "get" this a little better than they did in 2009 now that we've been talking about it and events have moved more towards calamity. Remember, two years ago it was more than a bit heretical to call this a "Depression" (not that heresy every stopped me!). |
2011-08-26T16:10:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9483 |
| Laurie: Good stuff, I've just started perusing your links. Thanks! The importance of good data is that we're living in a time when the complex financial system depends very heavily on management. The US Dollar, standard around the world, is nothing more than the "Full faith and credit of the US". If they don't have the right data they will reach the wrong conclusions and do the wrong things. Better understanding of the lives of ordinary people would be a great help, of course, but we can only expect so much of that. My main criticism of Krugman, for example, is that he has very different friends than I do. That's where the political process and subsequent policy making comes into play - and we know how broken that's been. So we're back to decent data as our best hope for highlighting what's going on. But we clearly don't have good data in anything like real time. What we do have fuels denial, dysfunction, and laziness. Given that economic cycles are very real - and quite inevitable, thanks Minsky et al - that's a scary prospect. So what next? But I think it's obvious by now that we've lost a solid decade already "farting around" (to use Alan's phrase). Let's try not to lose another one. You've got some good stuff there highlighting what is really going on. | 2011-08-25T04:49:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9438 |
| Smithson: Thank you very much, I am honored to have a student of the great Minsky comment on my humble work. I also believe that instability is inherent in modern finance. Success always breed both excess and complacency. I have never been a Black-Scholes-Merton fan because as a Chemical Engineer I was heavily trained in fault tolerance, which is to say the analysis of systems at their limits: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/03/23/boundary-failure/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/ The power-point presentation you linked to is really great because it challenges us to think about the assumptions that we are building into our systems. I think this is critical. I also believe that the only possible solution is a reserve that helps to cushion the inevitable failure, a real insurance rather than a hedge built artificially from an equation. But I understand that even this makes failure a little too cheap if done improperly and requires an understanding of the social risks (which need protection) and the personal risks (which must be taken for a free market to work). More than anything, Minsky's connection between macro policy and micro motivation is very compelling. I have made what I call "Connections Analysis" the core of my own approach, looking at neither individual nodes and actions nor the systemic whole, but the connections that make a whole out of parts. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/category/people-culture/systemic-connections/?orderby=ID&order=ASC I'd love to speak with you some more on this topic if you are interested. I feel that my role as a "hobbyist" is to translate great works like Minsky's into common language so that the lessons can be brought to a wider world. Thanks again for your great contribution - I hope everyone follows the link and sees what a great thinker Minsky was! |
2011-08-25T02:40:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9435 |
| Dale: Interesting point. It was one Hell of a diversion, wasn't it? George Orwell has to be weeping somewhere. But we were always at war with Eurasia, er, Iraq. |
2011-08-24T20:43:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9427 |
| Alan: I hope we can all do our part. Confronting reality is NOT scary - it's liberating! There are things we can do to get control over our own destiny! Jim: You are referring to this, I think: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/12/29/overnight-wonder/ You are right, there is a clear pattern of hiding important data from the population. I think this all deserves more explanation than we are getting. |
2011-08-24T18:15:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9425 |
| Alan: As you know, I have been trying to get people to focus on both the reality of this situation and the simple fact that there are many things we can try and probably turn it around. People really weren't paying attention before the debt ceiling debacle - but they may be right now. I think interest is finally peaking - but it is about a decade too late. I think it's pretty sick that people take so little interest in their collective futures, but that's the selfish world we live in - selfish to the point where people clearly act against their own interests. Very stupid, if you ask me. Anna: I wish I knew where the data was all along. I held off writing this post because I don't know why the revisions are so heavily downward in any technical sense - but with Friday's deadline approaching I decided that the difficulty in finding a good answer was a story itself. |
2011-08-24T15:53:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9421 |
| Jim: "Too big to understand" is a much worse problem than "Too big to fail". I don't think we're totally there yet, but it certainly seems like it at times. The big thing is that the US has lost control of most of its destiny, I believe, and we're having a hard time adjusting to that. I think we can, and should, be able to make sense of enough of what's going on to have enough control over our destiny. Laurie: You're far from alone in the pursuit of this "hobby" - that's why I took off from it. I hope you can see that in the comments. A liberal arts education never really stops, that's true, but I can't help but think there is more to it right now. Ever since the big flare-up in Washingtoon there seems to be a new interest in understanding the world. I can't help but wonder if that is the start of a movement that could lead to something far bigger. |
2011-08-23T13:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/22/hobbyists/#comment-9409 |
| Kris: In bad times, art is the first to go. But then again, during the last Depression there was a fair amount of money put to public art - and documenting cultures through music, visual arts, etc. But we don't seem anywhere near enlightened enough now, so ... yeah, it's at the bottom of the list. The other aspect of The Five that is important is probably that they came out of the middle class that 2-3 generations earlier started to take a strong interest in music, making the "Rockstar" career of van Beethoven possible (a much earlier Barataria piece ... :-) ). Rich people dabbled in art a lot, but never people with "day jobs", at least not in such an organized and deliberate fashion. But it's been done a lot since then. Why not in the fine art of ... connections? :-) |
2011-08-22T21:20:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/22/hobbyists/#comment-9395 |
| Dan: Hey, how are ya? It may not be possible to know everything in this world, but there are some things that you have to know to be a good citizen. And I honestly think that intuitively most voters do "get" what is important, on average. People can understand a lot more with their guts than their head. I'm starting to think that the problem is two-fold - we're taught to not trust our guts, and we're actively discouraged from voting by all the BS that passes for "debate" in politics and the media. So I guess if I was to organize, it would be along those lines. And Rupert Murdoch might be the best target to go after. Just thinking. |
2011-08-22T20:34:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/22/hobbyists/#comment-9393 |
| Anna: What I mean by organizing is more or less what The Five did - which is to say trade notes, give each other encouragement, and so on. We do that a lot here now, and it's great, but we could step it up a notch. Yes, the target is "the system" - which Alinsky will tell you is a losing battle. A real movement would involve a more personal target than that. I'm curious what people think is the real problem. You named "special interests" ahead of even pols or the media. Can we define that better? Dale: The signal to noise ratio on the 'net can be very low, yes. I keep thinking about a list of articles on the side here as a way of highlighting good stuff I find around (and what others recommend!). Jan: It is a matter of putting it together from what I can tell. Aggregators have always fascinated me, but I have yet to find one that is really good. I'll let you know. |
2011-08-22T17:38:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/22/hobbyists/#comment-9391 |
| Sheryl: That's what probably will happen. The current plan is a weighted basket of US Dollars, UK Pounds, Japanese Yen, and Euros. I would add some gold in there and call it a party. It would ease us out. I think the Dollar weighting is 50% at the IMF right now. | 2011-08-22T01:08:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9377 |
| Laurie: You've hit something that I've been punting on because I'm not entirely sure about the figures. The report that The Nation article refers to is here: http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/the-deficit-reducing-potential-of-a-financial-speculation-tax I think they are proposing a 1% tax on all short-term trades to raise $150B a year, but they do not spell it out clearly. Hard-core Friedman Supply-Side Conservatives always tell us that a reduction in the capital gains tax creates jobs - often concluding that the rate should be zero. I both agree and disagree with this, figuring that the truth is always in the details and the rate (Zero? Really? Come on!). However, short-term trades, while improving liquidity and performance of the market, do not add anything to growth. Some tax like this should be a "gimmee". However, there is also a lot of merit in tax simplification. This is a complication that may well be justified but I think has to be seen in the context of simplification - which starts with the elimination of a bizarre array of tax credits for all kinds of things that make it possible for many people to evade taxes all together. It's the centerpiece of the Simpson-Bowles plan and I think it's where we have to start. So I've punted on this issue - but you are right to bring it up. There is a terrible "tax" on job creation that comes from the Dollar Standard and the tremendous overhead per employee that comes from both regulation and simple standard business operation. Offsetting that effect by taxing short-term trades as a way to raise revenue seems to return the system to balance. I think you have convinced me. If the Democrats develop any guts at all this will probably have to be a part of the package they propose because the revenue is high and the effect on the economy is tiny. I should add this to the list of six items that I put forward as a platform some time ago, along with a few items suggested by commentors at that time. Thank you! |
2011-08-20T15:39:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/19/stock-pigeons/#comment-9373 |
| Sheryl: That was a big thing back in October 2008, wasn't it? Every Saturday brought more bad news. If that is what's really driving things, I have to say that any bad news that comes this weekend has to be at least somewhat expected at this point. We're talking about announcements from Europe, basically, which will hardly be a surprise. Dunno. | 2011-08-19T22:40:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/19/stock-pigeons/#comment-9357 |
| Jack: I don't know if it's fair to compare stock traders to pigeons, especially since pigeons appear to have some sense of loyalty. :-) | 2011-08-19T19:26:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/19/stock-pigeons/#comment-9354 |
| Anna: Thanks. Yes, the stock market is rarely rational, which is why I avoid commenting on it most of the time. But it's important in the psychology of the population, for better or worse, even as it reflects that same psychology. Leading and lagging indicator, if you ask me. Another great quote from the Soros piece: ... if a double-dip recession was in doubt a few weeks ago, it is less in doubt now, because financial markets have a very safe way of predicting the future. They cause it. And the markets have decided that America is going to see a recession, particularly after the recent downgrade of the US by the rating agency Standard & Poor's. Dale: No, that is not a coincidence. :-) | 2011-08-19T16:31:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/19/stock-pigeons/#comment-9352 |
| Laurie, I just have to respond to the "jazz" comment: Patrick: You’re a man now, Spongebob, and it’s time you starting acting like one. Spongebob: Yeah! Oh… but I’m not sure I know how. Patrick: Allow me to demonstrate. First, puff out your chest. [ Sponge does ] Now say ‘tax exemption’! Spongebob: Tax exemption. Patrick: Now you must acquire a taste for freeform jazz. Seriously now: Barataria is about connections - people to people, people to ideas. How people form communities, online and real world, is an important part of what makes us human and how humans connect to the world. Here are examples of communities, all of which are rather unique. What caused them to form? What drew people in the first place? Some sense of quality or relevance to their lives is definitely important. That's what I want to learn from this list more than even trying to find something more to read. But you're more than welcome to put out some partially baked ideas 'round here - I certainly do all the time. :-) |
2011-08-18T18:55:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9338 |
| T: I hadn't heard of many of them either, but they all have active communities of their own. People found them - and became loyal contributors and readers. There is always something to learn from the rest of the world, IMHO, and the success of these blogs says something. I presented this because we have so many great examples of solid online communities presented here, and every one of them is different. If nothing else, the sociology is fascinating. | 2011-08-18T16:34:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9336 |
| Meghan: Me? Do SEO type stuff? Never! :-) Conventional wisdom is often useful as the thesis - "things are this way". That always begs the antithesis, "things are not that way". And that leads to a good experiment to judge how things really are. It's all the scientific method attempting to chart a new world - or, as I usually offer, a different world that's more like the old one than we like to think. :-) | 2011-08-18T12:54:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9334 |
| Jack: I was hoping you'd come in, right on queue! Because the flip side of what Dale was saying was ... a bit of creativity! Not all of the Top40 have that - in fact, most don't - but some of the, like Danger Bay, really stand out. It's like South Park for adults. :-) | 2011-08-17T21:46:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9328 |
| Dale: Something like that. And yes, I think nearly anyone can teach themselves to write better. To me, it starts with open eyes, a strong desire to improve, and the ability to edit your own stuff critically. That's the brain, heart, and arm (sorry, got the order reversed from the usual) that it takes - but anyone can do it. This is a minority opinion, but I think with time it will catch on. Also, I think people should really care about their readers and have a desire to be relevant, which is to say not just spout what they want - but most people can figger that one out easily enough. |
2011-08-17T20:40:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9326 |
| Jan: Thanks! This is a topic that has been important to me from the start, because as you know I have always seen Barataria as an experiment to prove some of that "conventional wisdom" wrong - that blogs can be substantial, relevant, and rely on traditional reference methods to build complex arguments. I see it as a success. But more and more I see that very few blogs which follow the conventional formulae are all that successful, measured by a sustained community and a high degree of interaction that persists. Besides, "relevance" is something that only the readers could ever choose, really. Anna: Interesting observation! Paul Tosto has one at MPR, but I haven't looked over there in a while myself. I'll try to think about more. |
2011-08-17T18:20:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9324 |
| Ron: I don't think they understand the implications completely, but I do agree with them that abandoning this standard has some major benefits for us. Right now, we have little control over our own currency, directing our economy in a direction that does not favor the working middle class. Naturally, it is possible to lose this standard AND ignore the policies necessary to support a middle class nation of citizens, but I do think that the standard we have now has horrible tilted things for far too long. If nothing else, I think the loss of the Dollar Standard is inevitable and should be prepared for. This can't hold forever. |
2011-08-17T16:28:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9321 |
| Kevin: Thanks very much. No, I am not the first to call "Depression!", but I am the most obnoxious. :-) This is hard stuff to explain, and I think about it often. I corner people in bars and practice my schtick before I write it here. It's not easy to do, but I enjoy it. Call it a very strange hobby. Oh, and I am indeed available for ghostwriting and related services! Kevin: There are many reasons why this isn't explained, and most of them are pure laziness. The biggest issue is that the "experts" who learn this stuff often learn it along with a ton of jargon and forget plain English. I refuse to do that, and I work at it constantly - a very minority preference. I really appreciate that you said the Powers that Be(tm) are covering up their incompetence - I believe that is very true. However, in their defense this is an unusual situation that requires deep thinking "outside the box", so people like Larry Summers were easily caught trying the same, old same-old and it didn't work. Never explain with malice what can be explained by laziness or incompetence, I always say. And I don't think malice is necessary to explain a thing here. And thank you very much for your kind words of support! |
2011-08-16T21:20:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9315 |
| Laurie: The Dollar Standard has not been written about very extensively in terms that most people can understand. It's not really that complicated in how it works, but the implications are. China, for its part, has been playing by the rules - and winning - but they are now starting to question the rules for some pretty good reasons that include the fact that they are likely to hit the wall shortly. Gold? Hard to say what its future really is. In inflation adjusted terms we're not at an all-time high. I do think that it makes sense to price commodities worldwide as a ration to some other random commodity, and gold is as good as anything for that. So between the tradition and the need for something truly distributed we could see it again - but outside of the Gold Dinar there is no serious proposal yet. |
2011-08-16T13:57:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9312 |
| Thanks, Sheryl. In case you didn't notice, I'm backing up a bit from last week's post on the Death of the Dollar because it dawned on me that people weren't "getting it" quite like I thought. China is a good example to use. | 2011-08-15T20:41:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9310 |
| Jim: Thanks. It's worth thinking about, and strangely very few people understand this. The system as we know it clearly benefits people with money (ie, people who think of shopping as entertainment) at the expense of those who need jobs, so it's important to think about. Dale: Think about this from China's perspective - they've been sucked into this mess doing nothing more than playing by the rules. And now they have a lot on the line. They can ask for "international supervision", but we all know that they won't get it - we'd never give up sovereignty over our own currency. But ... at some point they will insist on doing something. That's when the Dollar Standard comes to a crashing halt - unless we can ease our way out of it. |
2011-08-15T17:44:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9308 |
| Anna: What this means is that we have not had full control over our own domestic economy for a long time, preferring instead to run the rest of the world. I'm having trouble piecing together the argument, but it seems to me that what we have been doing has benefited the upper class greatly at the expense of working people who need jobs that allow them to develop skills gradually (like manufacturing) and thus move up in income. We have traded cheap gizmos for the security of our own people, and I think that's been a crappy deal. Yes, there will be pain when the US Dollar standard finally ends. But we can manage our way past it - and take advantage of the freedom we will have to benefit a forgotten class of people. As long as there is not hyperinflation induced by a rapid change we'll be OK, I think. I certainly think the policies we've had are exhausted and have run their course. |
2011-08-15T15:33:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9305 |
| Frederick: "Sanctioned" is a word that has two rather opposite meanings in common use, that's a good one! "Legendary" is another fun example, although "From song and story" brings those two definitions together in a sense - the strong image is a very fun one no matter which way you're going with it. Excellent examples! | 2011-08-14T13:17:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/12/awfully-artificial-2/#comment-9295 |
| Thanks! Just wanted to do something silly for Friday - been a pretty serious 2 weeks. :-) Anyone have other words that changed meanings? |
2011-08-12T20:02:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/12/awfully-artificial-2/#comment-9287 |
| Laurie: I think journalism as a career is at least on hold for the time being, but the skills taught are going to continue to be valuable. I think the world is figuring out the value of free content to drive traffic, which is to say that it has to be monetized somehow, and there is some understanding that quality matters. Actual paid content is still really up in the air, but I can see you agree with the NY Times that it is worth it when it's good. It's a matter of time to shake it all out. I'm just pleased that there is some recognition of quality - and thus maybe some pay for it. | 2011-08-11T17:38:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/10/value-of-information/#comment-9279 |
| I also think that more and more pocket devices means that people will want this kind of service more all the time. And that also makes transit a lot more appealing, which is good! :-) | 2011-08-10T21:58:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/10/value-of-information/#comment-9257 |
| Jim: It's the value of the brand that matters, and that's built over time. The model they have, which includes some free articles, is a good hybrid that has proven itself. What more can I say? | 2011-08-10T19:48:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/10/value-of-information/#comment-9255 |
| Anna: I think most people "get" the free market, but some are always scared of it. It isn't always manipulated by large companies, although companies don't get a whole lot bigger than the NY Times in the journalism biz. I agree on the commoditization of information - it is pretty backwards, but it's also a mature industry undergoing a momentous change. It will take time for people to be used to paying for news, but there is at least one sign that given a good brand name people will. Interesting at least! | 2011-08-10T17:27:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/10/value-of-information/#comment-9252 |
| Dale: That was a funny rally. I think the best that we can say about that is they wanted to rally, so they did. I heard some talk about bringing US Dollars back home - repatriating would be the short way of saying it. If that's what is being discussed, we are preparing for what I wrote about here - US Dollars for the US, not for the rest of the world. I think it's code for pros to prepare for the end of the Dollar Standard. |
2011-08-09T20:32:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9241 |
| Alan: I was just teasing you! I agree, the disconnect within the DFL is alarming. It's as if no one, anywhere, believes in organizing any more ... except the Tea Party folks, that is. Does anyone wonder why they have hugely outsized influence? And I certainly don't blame them for doing it, either - I blame "our side" for having apparently given up. I guess that is what is really frightening in all this. I also agree that the shutdown was our chance to shine, but we didn't . I'm running a campaign now and we're trying some new things to connect to people in new ways. I'd like to report back, but I can't reveal secrets yet. We also have to see how well it works. |
2011-08-08T23:18:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9236 |
| Laurie: Sorry your post got stuck in the spam-trap for a bit (links do that!) but these are good links - thank you for them. They argue what I've been saying all along - that this is more like a Depression than anything else. Well, they don't use that term, but ... I'll give them slack for calling the problem just what it is and outlining why it needs more a active response. :-) This is a serious situation, whether you want to call it a Managed Depression (as I do!), the Lesser Depression (Krugman) or a "Great Contraction" (Rogoff). The analysis is the same, and the way out requires tremendous leadership - and brutal honesty about the pain. So far, we're getting nonsense and that set up the manufactured crisis that is certainly going to make it worse. (Want me to go further in blaming Obama, Alan? :-) ) |
2011-08-08T19:48:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9234 |
| Dan: Yes, we can expect that even in the short term the USD will drop in value and gizmos from overseas will cost more. All we can hope is that the main effects occur gradually enough for us to scale up our own production, but I seriously doubt that will happen. It's when oil goes up for the same effect that we are in trouble, IMHO. |
2011-08-08T17:58:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9233 |
| Jack: They are dangerously stupid. I can't think of any other way to describe them. Alan: Fair enough - I do blame Obama and despair that he is now their captive. He has little room to squeeze out of this jam. I don't know what to say about him anymore. I hope he isn't completely irrelevant yet. Anna: No, I don't think anyone understands just how we got where we are. I think Alan is right that when you describe our real power as economic people "get it", but the source of that power is less obvious, I think. |
2011-08-08T16:13:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9229 |
| Yes, that is exactly what is happening here. It may have been bound to happen eventually, but just 5 years ago it was hard to imagine anything replacing the Dollar - and now it's starting to look like a necessity for a lot of nations. If this goes down as I think we can reasonably expect over the next few years it'll be all those idiots' fault. And they will probably try to find a way to blame Obama for it. I can only hope that we do get the boost in manufacturing as part of the package because the rest of it looks pretty nasty. |
2011-08-08T15:20:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9225 |
| Meghan: Thank you - our discussion on this topic has a lot to do with going this direction, and I think it's a good one. I think people do know a lot more than they might think, but a lot of it is in their guts - intuition tells us things our brains can't totally wrap themselves around. But I don't think we'll be comfortable with that unless we can talk it out and say, yes, that does make sense after all. The extent to which this world is different than everything that came before it is that humans and their tech define their own world more than ever before - we're not as beholden to weather and natural cycles as we once were. But if we created this world we can understand it and manage it. It's ours. Leaving it up to "experts" or kings or others to take care of is one way of dealing with it, but they all have their own agendas and limitations. There's a point where we all have to know just how we fit in if it's going to work for us - or sometimes work at all. No one smart ever said democracy was easy. But it's still a lot better than the alternatives. |
2011-08-06T14:39:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/05/fear-itself/#comment-9208 |
| Jim: That's .... sort of what I had in mind, but not as nicely put. :-) I have been waiting for the noize to quiet down, but if anything it's gotten louder. I think it's time for those of us with quiet voices to say our piece and not worry about who listens. I've been saying the Emperor has no clothes for some time - and that we can see why the Empress has a thing going on the side, too. But I think a few people are finally interested . Why not step it up a notch? | 2011-08-05T19:35:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/05/fear-itself/#comment-9205 |
| Anna: I hope to start a discussion on twitter or, perhaps, google+. The advantages of the latter are that we don't have a 140 character limit and the thread stays around so people can come into it when they want. But I'm exploring other options, too. Might do both. If I do this on twitter it'll start Saturday or Sunday night and the tag will be #EconChat - look for it and we'll see where we go. I hope to do something very open where we all understand that we're not "experts" but we have access to articles and papers we can judge for ourselves. Call me "facilitator" not "leader". :-) |
2011-08-05T15:54:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/05/fear-itself/#comment-9203 |
| Dan: You are right. I haven't had time to go through and figure out who really loses yet, I need to do that. Laurie: I'm just doing what I can. I hope everyone does. Saint Paul looks pretty good actually, especially my immediate 'hood - but we have work to do. |
2011-08-04T13:23:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/03/after-the-storm/#comment-9184 |
| Dale: Bingo! :-) We've allowed this monster to be created and now we have to deal with it. My only solace is that Republicans are as upset about the monster as we are - and Bohner has to feel like a total tool about now. We'll see if that winds up meaning anything. Kris: I appreciate your honesty, and add to it that I'm not far away from you. Obama was schooled bad and he's going to have to do something to recover before I'm going to feel anything positive for him. I'm trying to get a solid plan in place, something that bubbles up from the grassroots but has strong underpinnings. The more we can work this out at our level the more likely we are to get something good - and maybe, if we have something to work for, get that ol' fight back in us. But I agree that I'm not there now. | 2011-08-03T18:10:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/03/after-the-storm/#comment-9181 |
| Wow, hitting some nerves here. You guys always rise to a challenge & make me do the same! Love it! Anna: Excellent point about fear driving investment. I did neglect that here but have talked about it some more. Wall Street confuses me right now, I think they are being stupid and not watching the data close enough. But corporate profits are coming back reasonably well right now, and that's the driver. Good point on people not being ready for this message in 2008, BTW. Pat: Excellent question! The problem FDR had was placating his left, the Henry Wallace Progressives. There were Republicans but they mostly were "Dime Story New Dealers" that always counter-proposed cheaper versions of what FDR suggested. A very different (and much healthier!) atmosphere. My point is that by confronting fear as openly as he did FDR got the politics to that point - something Obama has utterly failed to do so far. Kris: I don't think we can cooperate with the Tea Party types. I think that Obama underestimated how utterly crazy they are - and Boehner did, too. I think there are far more moderate Republicans and Independents who are potential allies, however, and I do think it's important to defuse the Tea Party types. Confronting fear is my solution to that - acknowledging the reality of the situation. I know it's a lot to ask, but I'd like to hear Progressives talk that way and see how it goes as we shape a platform to move forward. I think that this "deal" is no plan for anything moving forward and we have to simply overcome it. BTW, the reaction on Wall Street shows that they are nervous about not just debt but the austerity, so we may have more allies than you think. Jim: Yes, I want to acknowledge reality and build a coalition from there. I think a lot of conservatives like you have something to add to it and I'm really glad you are here. I'm never into blame, I don't see the point of it. |
2011-08-03T16:21:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/03/after-the-storm/#comment-9177 |
| Kevin: I made that extreme on purpose - I wanted to separate out those who were just a bit worried from those who had stronger feelings. I avoided the word "worried" because it seemed a little too mushy - deliberately went for phrases people would have never seen or spoken before. And yet ... "scared" is the runaway winner. I think that means something. | 2011-08-02T00:31:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/01/taking-stock/#comment-9157 |
| Laurie: Thank you! I agree with the author very much, I'll read it again to see if I have a detailed critique. The subject is what I was getting at in my recent piece going after Krugman: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/ He's much more rigorous than I was, and that owes in part to some confusion on my part understanding just what neo-Keynesianism is all about, to be fair. I'll get back to this in a bit, thanks for the link! Kris: Thanks! I'm just trying to get a handle on what the world needs. More constant polling is probably called for, so I think that's a good suggestion. I have demographic info on my readers to go with the info I'm collecting now. Everyone: Thank you for the contributions received so far, it really helps keep me going! |
2011-08-01T22:30:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/01/taking-stock/#comment-9155 |
| Jan: Yes, this will guide what I write about. I'm very curious what people think - and I know I have a lot more readers than those who leave comments. Had to tease 'em out! :-) Sheryl: You didn't go on long at all, don't worry. :-) I appreciate what you have to say because I'm hearing a lot more empathy for those who are scared and angry than I expected. That says to me that there is a chance that people - not politicians! - can maybe work this out. I'd love to sit down with pros of some kind and talk about this. Anyone with a radio show want to invite me to be part of a panel? :-) Everyone - some early results are in and I'm really impressed by a few things. First of all, we have a few conservatives reading, which I'm very happy about. I'll tone down my recent partisan stuff and keep reaching out to you. I also see that people are pretty solidly scared about their own future, and I'll admit that I am, too. All of you think this is either a Depression or part of a long-term decline, which is say you think this is a very serious thing - that's not reflected in the media, IMHO. You're more interested in how to read the news and possible solutions than anything like "blaming", which is also very cool to me. Lastly, the blame is scattered around pretty widely, which I guess figures since that's not a priority for you, but very few picked "business cycles" - that was my pick, BTW, and I do think that this more or less just happens every two generations. So we'll see how the polling goes, but some solid trends are developing. Thank you all, I greatly appreciate it! |
2011-08-01T18:08:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/01/taking-stock/#comment-9151 |
| Jim: I will think about that, thanks! Dale: I was very young then, but I think I know what you mean. If it's been nearly 40 years I think we're due for a big discussion. My Dad, BTW, thinks that's where things went wrong and we never really corrected them. Jack: There is a lot of frustration to go around. I'm trying to gauge how we build that into a movement that gets something done. Anna: It makes sense, and you're very empathetic. Think of that as a way to start reaching out to people and maybe we'll be able to get something organized. I also agree that people are scared - the poll already shows that to be a popular response. What to do about it is the hard part. |
2011-08-01T15:31:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/01/taking-stock/#comment-9148 |
| Michael: Thank you for your comments. I completely agree that the key to getting out of this is first understanding that we're all going to take a hit - in the developed world, as you note. That is why I think that the right label is so important. We need the appropriate sense of urgency. Given a free economy, much of what happens won't be up to leaders. They can help, but they can't make it happen on their own. The key is to get the population to understand these issues - and perhaps put pressure on the "leaders". So I keep writing, organizing, and hoping. And I try very hard to not sound like a big downer. :-) Excellent points, and thank you for them. Welcome to Barataria! There are a lot of strange things around here. :-) |
2011-07-31T22:16:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-9138 |
| Alan: Yes, that is true. In many more states there weren't enough Democrats left to even get this far, however, so we'll see how they fare. Texas has been going down this path much longer than most and their budget - well, it was seriously crashing and burning. Janine: I know. It's impossible to describe. |
2011-07-30T21:20:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/27/beyond-words/#comment-9134 |
| Sheryl: Yes, per week - sorry I left that out. And it is a big number, but it's dropping rapidly. Another two weeks and I think we'll be able to see if it's a long term trend - but it's already hitting the slowest pace since the start of this phase of the Depression. Janine: It would add to this, yes. Horribly so. They need to be careful what they do because this is a very new and fragile improvement. |
2011-07-30T21:18:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/29/searching-for-good-news/#comment-9133 |
| Jim: Sorry 'bout the jargon - I think Keynes and related terms are pretty essential, but I keep thinking I've explained them already. May not do a great job of that. You are right as to what Keynes' actual theory was. He would indeed be horrified to learn what happened to his work and how it's been used to justify constant large deficits. It's something I sort of covered in this piece: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/i-still-like-mike/ I say "sort of" because the huge budget deficits on the Reagan Era were done in the name of Milton Friedman and his "Supply Side" theory, which I sort of covered in the link referred above. Thing is that in practical terms I see no difference at all between Keynes and Friedman, at least in how they have been practiced. BOTH men would be horrified! :-) |
2011-07-29T18:51:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/29/searching-for-good-news/#comment-9128 |
| Alan: You're bringing up an issue that I've largely been punting on - but I have a very good excuse. I agree that we will not see the kind of growth that we saw in the past, but I largely think that most of the "growth" since 1980 has been artificial, as it was fueled entirely by increases in consumption that include a lot of fudge - a big part of that is increased health care spending, for one. I always liked this simple article, right-winged as it comes off: http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/08/the_retail-impo.html The remaining "growth" all came from goosing monetary policy, which is utterly unsustainable. So what does a sustainable economy look like to us? How much of it might include new gizmos created by new tech? I honestly have no idea at all, and I dare anyone to say they do. There's just way too much fudge in the data we have. What I say instead is that our economy has to Restructure. In private I use the word "Perestroika" for a weak laugh. That almost certainly means a reduction in consumption, but I have no idea what category that will come from. We could easily cut our health care in half (that is, saving on the order of 9% of GDP for other uses) and still have a health care system on par with every other "mature" nation such as ours. That's huge. So I honestly don't know what to make of it. For now, I say we have to Restructure, with a capital letter, and leave it at that. I honestly don't know exactly where it goes from here. I am enough of a free market maven to say that a fluid and free market will probably find its own equilibrium somewhere - all that assuming adopt appropriate public policies that reflect the values we expect in that market (such as a reasonable health care system!). |
2011-07-29T16:55:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/29/searching-for-good-news/#comment-9126 |
| Anna: Good point. Something is broken, and I have no idea what right now. I'll let you know if I find anything. Dale: It's an improvement. Maybe not good news, but we had to break out of that 430k Initial Claims range before we'd see anything. Barring a financial self-inflicted disaster I don't think this will reverse that easily - the job market is looking up because hours of employed people are just not going down. There's still pressure to hire more, but it's held back by pessimism, IMHO. That's why solid action by our leadership would be such a great help right now - but look what we get instead. |
2011-07-29T16:01:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/29/searching-for-good-news/#comment-9124 |
| Sheryl: As of this moment, it's been delayed. They can't even get this through. No matter what happens at this point it will be garbage. The only thing that makes any sense is to raise the debt limit and begin a comprehensive round of talks on reform and budget trimming - one that includes major tax code simplification and military cuts among every single other thing. |
2011-07-28T23:27:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/27/beyond-words/#comment-9110 |
| Thanks everyone. Not much in the way of comments today, but there isn't a lot to say on this topic. Wait, that's what the post is about. Yeesh. | 2011-07-28T01:46:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/27/beyond-words/#comment-9101 |
| Sheryl: They have to put it into the "frameworks" to take a step back. It's a valuable exercise, but I think they get to "into it" to be any damned good at times. I not sure how I really feel about this overall. Audrey: It is telling, isn't it? This is why the headline unemployment rate is pointless. You can see that there's a big change in the nature of unemployment, at least. That means we can't compare today's data to yesterday's. It's one of my biggest beefs with those who talk about things as if there wasn't a huge chance that occurred - there obviously was. What do you say about it? |
2011-07-27T02:49:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9080 |
| There'll be a lot of studios in the old bottling house, and maybe some other parts of the site. I can imagine that the Rathskeller and accompanying first floor would include a lot of showcase space for exhibits. It could one incredible space, right at the very heart of the West End! So I'm very excited, too. I only focused on the Rathskeller because it's so cool the way it is now (makes for some fun photos!). | 2011-07-25T18:50:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9073 |
| Kris: Manufacturing jobs aren't all heavy lifting. Having worked in manufacturing for a couple of years I can tell you that a lot of the jobs were filled by older women. These include quality control, design, research, supervision, and a few forklift operators here and there. Generally, hard work is done by machines these days - and it does seem to me that retail jobs rely more on human muscle (possibly because people are paid less in retail). The great thing about manufacturing jobs is that there are a lot of entry positions that require only minimal skill but a lot of room for advancement as people learn more specialized skills. That's a lot of the reason that they traditionally pay better, I think. But there are a lot of highly skilled manufacturing jobs anymore that do require education (vocational and not) that would require a lot of recruitment if they started expanding. But who is going to go to school for these things unless they know there is a job? So matching that up can be a valuable function of government. It still wouldn't be for everyone, of course, but before 2000 a lot of our economy relied on well paying manufacturing jobs - 18 million of them. We lost about 6 million since then, which is to say the vast majority of the job loss that marks this Managed Depression: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/ |
2011-07-25T18:34:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9071 |
| Anna: I don't want to say that Krugman is "reckless", just a lot less concerned with the details than I think is prudent. Perhaps that's his role, and I understand that. But I think this is a time for real innovation and highly targeted action by the government - and Krugman is generally not as concerned with that. Here's an article with some good links, if a bit old: http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-problem-with-paul-krugmans-plan-to-fix-our-massive-debt-and-deficit-disaster-2010-6 Alan: I think the point that the systems of our world need to be put into the service of people, not power, is what we're both talking about here. And on that we completely agree. Yes, that's a bit old-fashioned Marxist in a way but I can't see any other reason for it all other than people. Right now, people are justifiably scared and hunkered down, not thriving. That's where the term "Depression" crosses economics and psychology. We have to break out of it. You're right - go back to fundamentals constantly and say, "This has to work for our people!". I try to do that a lot but didn't here. That long-term unemployment graph is one that I really want to highlight, however. People can't be out looking for work for over a year without losing all connection with society as we know it. Useful and joyous work defines a happy people generally - and we ain't anywhere near having that. I'm a progressive - I believe in progress. We can't have that while most people are huddled in a corner desperately holding on. |
2011-07-25T16:03:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9069 |
| Also, one of the things that was trimmed in a futile attempt to get this below 800 words was thanks to Kevin Andrews, a sometime commentor here, who gave me the link to the original Krugman article. Thanks, Kevin! | 2011-07-25T15:14:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9066 |
| Jim: Normally I'd say that a debate about whether this is a "Depression" or not would be a major snooze that has no connection to reality. But major policy makers are having a debate over what this is and what to do about it at a level that is very academic at times and always far removed from what most people talk about. I think nearly everyone I know calls this a "Depression" based on their gut instinct - and that this intuition is right. If we can't get the popular sentiment somehow in line with and/or influencing the bigger policy debate we have a problem as a Democratic Republic, IMHO. Dale: I guess it's been about 3 years since I really took on Krugman, so perhaps that doesn't count. It's a holdover from the old system before I had good inline links, and what's there is probably all broken: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/07/01/housing-bubble-toil-and-trouble/ I still say that his thinking is mired in the past and we have to overcome it if we are going to rejuvenate the left and make it relevant again. I just said it much nicer this time. :-) |
2011-07-25T15:00:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9065 |
| No new slogans, but I'll try to compile what we have & see what we can do with it. There's some good stuff here! Alan: You're absolutely right. I just saw another lengthy screed about how IRV will solve this problem, which utterly misses the point. There's never any substitute for an informed and involved citizenry. I know I won't agree with everyone, but we can't call ourselves a Democratic Republic if we can't even talk about these things (that is, without going into personal attacks, etc) |
2011-07-23T20:43:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-9046 |
| Thank you, everyone! I'll update you when we know more. | 2011-07-23T20:40:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9045 |
| Jim: We'll have to see about that. I think the adults aren't going to turn away until after 2 August. :-) Sheryl: It is pathetic, isn't it? This is what it takes to get them to do what needs to be done. Just appalling. |
2011-07-23T20:40:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/22/adult-supervision/#comment-9044 |
| Kris: It is like a big High School, except it has real power. >shudder!< No, seriously, a post like this is pretty easy and fun, but what bugs me the most is that we are a Democratic Republic, which means that in general we get exactly the government we deserve. | 2011-07-22T14:54:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/22/adult-supervision/#comment-9036 |
| Jack: Or get a second job (heck, I have about 4-5 jobs!). Or get the teens who still live at home a job (which is to say do something about the incredible unemployment rate among people under 25!). But it starts with talking about it honestly, right? We're nowhere near that. Yeesh. Anna: We'll see. I think it's starting to "take". |
2011-07-22T14:52:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/22/adult-supervision/#comment-9035 |
| Aviva: Thank you. It's always hard to say that people are different than those from so long ago, but I do agree with you. The difference, to me, is that the elites are out of touch by choice. The more we devalue work the more we develop this culture where the ruling class can separate themselves. Jefferson, Franklin, and the rest didn't exactly work hard for a living. But they respected those who did - and up against their European counterparts felt much closer to the working people of the new nation they were creating. It is a big difference, I think. |
2011-07-21T22:19:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/04/founding-fathers/#comment-9020 |
| Yup, I was researching it, too. It seems that the spelling "Rathskeller" is Old High German, which was a closer sibling or cousin language to English than Modern German. Interesting. I want to thank Tim for bringing up a very interesting topic - Thanks, man! | 2011-07-21T00:36:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9015 |
| Tim, you're right! But it is usually spelled that way locally, don't know why. I just got used to it - and that is very strange because while I'm far from fluent I can get by in German. | 2011-07-20T22:04:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9013 |
| Anna, Alan, Jack: Thanks, it's a real pleasure to see something happening - but the whole shebang is so big it is a bit scary to think about! Dale: There are plans for 270 living units between the Bottling House and the "Castle", along with a lot of artists' studio space and some gallery. I firmly believe that this "Bohemian" feel will drive what, if any, restaurant moves into the office/Rathskeller - but there is nothing set in any way at all. What I didn't talk about is the old warehouse and the vacant piece of land to the West of the property - those are up in the air as an undetermined "Phase II" at this point. It's a lousy market so we have to deal with what we have in front of us first and then branch out. |
2011-07-20T19:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9011 |
| It had been at least 10 years for me as well, so I was overjoyed to see how good it looks. The furniture is still there, wonderfully worn but solid! It's all set for more good times. Can't wait until something gets going. We're still not sure about details yet - that depends on the the will of development partners and a lot of math, but it's good to have Glendening on board. |
2011-07-20T16:41:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9005 |
| Wow. Anna, that's impressive! Jack, those are good, too! We may have to whip out the ol' voting system here. Sarah: How about this for a slogan: "I'll take tax & spend over borrow & spend" |
2011-07-19T19:18:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-8995 |
| Jack, I don't think that's off topic. It's moving this more towards the direction I should have taken in the first place, which is how can we organize people to get some positive action. A few quick ideas for bumperstickers for center / lefties: "If we do not hang together we shall surely hang separately" (that's a Ben Franklin quote, BTW, on the Continental Congress) "The center must hold" "Politics is just not all about YOU" "We are stronger together than we are alone" Dunno if it's getting the right direction or not, but I'd love to hear what other people have in mind! |
2011-07-19T18:43:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-8991 |
| Dale: That's more or less the issue, yes. What would it take to organize around reform? It's a snooze as an issue, but you are right here. | 2011-07-18T18:09:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-8984 |
| Anna, that's what I mean here. We need a kind of political movement, one centered on this one very big issue. I think that to get broad support and a lot of involvement from people that otherwise might not get involved we should make it clear that there is one single goal - fix this mess. We live in a Democratic Republic, which is to say that we can't always blame the leadership for our problems - it's our job. We have to organize and come up with alternatives. And yes, make as big of a deal as possible. I think that Tim Penny had a lot of good ideas he's assembled from various places that make a good start, but there is a even more than that. I don't think we are helpless - it's still a strong state overall. |
2011-07-18T14:02:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-8980 |
| Thanks, Penny and Dale. Not much to add at this point. | 2011-07-16T20:12:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8973 |
| I agree, Dale. I think most people, left or right, do as well. We all seem to hate this - and for the same reason. | 2011-07-16T20:11:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8972 |
| Great points, Dale! Timing is not just for comedy, but it is a place to understand it in raw form. Someone as refined as Dr. King takes it to a new level. Thanks! | 2011-07-16T20:10:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/15/timing/#comment-8971 |
| It's an effective strategy for getting people to pay attention, or at least the only one I can think of right now. That's all I care about. I know the choices are hard but our politicians have to start doing their jobs. | 2011-07-15T18:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/15/timing/#comment-8963 |
| Anna, I see two possibilities: 1) It's a surrender, a punt until the mid-term election 2) It's a ploy to divide the Republicans because the most hard-core will not accept the tax increases that were part of the leadership proposal, meaning that once a Special Session is convened it won't pass anyways - garnering only moderate Republican votes. Then another proposal that the DFL backs can be brought out for a win. Naturally, #1 is by far the most likely. However, the rumblings are that it is far more complex than it appears on the surface and I just gave you my best guess as to how it would play out if that is true. Stay tuned. I hope we didn't give in, again, but it does look like we did. That's not to say that a call for real reform shouldn't start outside of the Legislature, however - it just makes it a lot harder. |
2011-07-14T21:37:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8950 |
| Sheryl: Thanks, we'll see! Kevin: You're following my reasoning pretty well - what I describe here is something that has to happen eventually, it's just a question of when. I'm hoping that by talking about it we can make it happen sooner rather than later. , so in a sense I'm cheating here. :-) I think we're largely on the same page here and I hope you can join me in getting the message out as to what has to happen. |
2011-07-14T13:34:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8947 |
| Jim, it's like Churchill said: "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." I think we simply ran out of other possibilities. :-) |
2011-07-13T18:20:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8944 |
| Anna: I say give it a week, maybe a bit more to get the special session together and get it passed. That does put us into late July, however, but I think this will be done before the end of the month. Alan: The Citizen's League is a good organization and it has a lot of good people. However, like all non-profits, they have to do what they can to get money, however, so they do look awfully "professional" (to put it nicer than you did! :-) ). Don't worry about that. They are the one group that could handle some genuine input from the public, especially people who have studied changing demographics. |
2011-07-13T15:03:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8942 |
| Jim: Good point. Forgot about that piece. There are many angles to this topic and a lot of things I didn't think about! | 2011-07-11T20:25:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8926 |
| Alan: With you on age, it does help a lot. As for being "decent" vs. being actually "kind", you have me there. I grew up in something like the old South (parts of Florida were hard to quantify) and many people were genuinely kind and open. Minnesotans are much more likely to be polite, but I think on balance a bit less likely to give you the shirt off their back. Choosing one over the other is a matter of taste as much as anything. Anna: Thank you! That's kind of what I mean, although I wasn't going to go into how people dress. But that does bug me at times as well. I think your point that people who dress well are always given respect, regardless of anything, is probably quite right. So what does that mean? If we want to encourage civil discussion do we insist on a dress code? And could we do that without getting pretty rude in a different way? I really don't want to go there - but you do have an excellent point. And, again, none of that should matter online where we have no idea about the other person, so I think we do have to start insisting that people behave a bit more civilly. Thing is, if I ask people (as politely as possible) to be more civil on twitter I can hear the response now - "Who are you, Miss Manners?" And that would be the nicest comment, too. |
2011-07-11T18:37:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8924 |
| Jack: You are right - the 'net is not "in person", or at least the same rules don't apply. I have my theory that I posted long ago, which I linked to. But why don't we? And yes, newspapers have always been nasty ... two comments down. :-) Will: I do agree - ethnic groups, women, and LBGT are all better off because of what we call "political correctness". But isn't that really just an extension of the same "gentlemanly" behavior that used to be afforded every male in the majority and, in some cases, to everyone by those who were "real" gentlemen? I just think that there's a way to look at decent, civil behavior that is both traditional AND capable of growing / changing. And I do think we need it pretty badly right now if we're going to be able to talk about the political, social, and economic problems we have. Dale: Going back to what Jack said, you may have a point. I also agree that the 60s/70s may have been a turning point as politics heated up and social disorder was common. But I don't want to blame, I want to move on. We do pretty well here as internet sites go and I think most of you are good gentlemen (I do want to hear from the "ladies" because that is a much more complex subject!). So how did we get things that way here/? Can we help change the world and talk about things with a lot more people. This is not a well thunk out posting, BTW. I am very curious what other people think. |
2011-07-11T17:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8921 |
| Alan: Elected officials are one thing - they have always gotten nasty from the press. I mean amongst ourselves, those of us who haven't been elected to office. I don't mean this to be a political statement at all because many of the examples have nothing to do with politics. But it does influence our politics, of course. | 2011-07-11T15:51:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8916 |
| Ron, I think you may well be right. The way the sovereign debt crises are put off by the ECB and partners, rather than solved, says that there is no political will to avoid a disaster. Dodd-Frank has simply not put up the wall necessary to prevent a collapse from going epidemic and the whole system is still terrible vulnerable, as it has been since the repeal of Glass-Steagall. This is all on top of the debt ceiling brinksmanship and that lack of leadership. | 2011-07-10T19:34:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8904 |
| I just want to add that I am very dismayed that the headline unemployment rate rising on Friday was taken as a big surprise. It's like no one is paying attention at all. Here's a graph from the St Louis Fed showing the strong correlation between initial claims and headline unemployement: http://tinyurl.com/5umpuwy I'd go back further in time to show how strong the correlation is, but there was a "jump" discontinuity between 2008 and 2010 as a lot of "discouraged workers" fell off the headline unemployment rate - which only shows how fudgy the damned thing is. I'm trying to figure out just what to say about it, but the reality is that it tracks very well. Meanwhile, I hope everyone on twitter can follow the tag #ManagedDepression where I'll post articles and data as I get them. There have been some really good items lately that show how this is, in fact, a kind of Depression that we are in. |
2011-07-10T19:29:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8903 |
| Laurie: I guess that as time goes on I have to agree with you. So let's do a better job on our end here in the blog world and get done what we can. | 2011-07-10T19:25:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8902 |
| I'm not disagreeing with you overall, but now is not the time to take on Grover Norquist. If you want to demonize him you have to have more "gotcha" stuff - the way the Repubs make someone like Rev. Wright into a caricature. It takes a lot more effort and I think it's too late to pin this on him. When this is personified it has to be someone immediate who the news can pick up. That's all. | 2011-07-09T14:58:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8898 |
| Alan: Good point - "Gummint" is a dirty word, but individual parts of it remain very popular. That's the sort of language we have to use. Jim: I think a lot of people will be with you on this. It is a matter of timing and how well this is remembered. The Republicans have an even weaker hand than I thought. Dale: Grover is a blue muppet. I have zero idea why people bring up Norquist in this context because his name isn't going to do jack. |
2011-07-08T23:18:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8887 |
| Alan, this is something I've been thinking about for a long time. Should the Democrats portray themselves as competent managers of the system or as active progressives working for change? The last time I wrote about it this starkly was after the election: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/ I generally come down on the side of being good managers first, but that is so boring that it does not capture anyone's imagination. I also do not want to engage the Repubs in their games because their mission, turning people off from politics and getting them to stay home on election day, is very much the opposite of what Democrats have to do. Excitement is essential to a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) strategy no matter what I say. So you might well be right - this is the time to energize the base and get them ready for the next election. But ... in the middle of a shutdown it's really hard to make the case for government, given that there isn't one! :-) |
2011-07-08T16:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8883 |
| Kris, I agree with you completely here. This is a national crisis and we are just not taking it seriously. If there is one theme that I hope people take away from this humble li'l blog it is that we have to be much more serious and stop playing games with our civic responsibility. A big part of the game is not political, however, it's all about keeping score by amassing far more money than anyone could ever need to live. It's gotten way far out of hand - and people actually believe that it is all about them, not society. I don't know if you ever saw this piece from long ago: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/03/25/money/ There is no definition of "money" that isn't social in some way. It's just not all about individuals and it can never be. A society defined so heavily by selfishness has not future, IMHO. |
2011-07-08T16:10:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8881 |
| Meghan: I'm sure you are right. The Republicans have taken to liking "permanent minority" status in many ways. A big hunk of their media message is that they are victimized by the "liberal media" and inherent bias - a position that can never be mistaken for leadership. As long as they cast themselves as underdogs fighting against a DFL/liberal "establishment" they will see incentive to dig in and never retreat, a la Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann. People in this mindset will never take seriously the give and take of actually governing. It's all one continuous election. A very good point. Anna: That may well play out, and we'll see. I'm not one to comment in part because I really don't understand the "blame game" in the first place. I like to think that makes me more like an average voter. I think you've picked up on something that is very much worth watching and I really hope you are right on that - not just so that "my side" wins but because I would love to see that game end once and for all time! |
2011-07-08T16:05:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8880 |
| Jack: Well, I've made my case. We'll see, won't we? :-) Alan: I do agree with this - it's really up to how well the DFL plays its hand out. Staying with the poker analogies, I consider the Republican campaign to be a "tell" - they know they are bluffing and are playing the bad hand the best they can. What I think is important is the basic rules of organizing laid down by Alinsky - "Pick the target, freeze it, personify it, polarize it." The target(s) are Zellers and Koch - not "the Republicans" and not Tony Sutton. The DFL could still botch this because they play it badly, but so far the Governor himself is doing quite well. We will see - and I do expect this to drag on a long time. |
2011-07-08T15:43:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8877 |
| Thanks, Ola. I am certain that most, if not nearly all, state employees are good people who would prefer to just get the job done and not pass the buck. So if I'm right about what's happening, it's a failure of leadership. That's why we pay managers the big bucks, after all, and they are the ones who get the credit AND the blame. The first step is to talk about this openly and ID the problems without blaming & shaming. From there, I'm sure that the employees themselves would be part of the solution if someone from the outside were to ask questions. I wrote this as a new administration was taking over in hope of influencing them. I've heard of some of this going on, but only on a small scale. It may be enough, but be assured that I'm watching for more evidence of an ongoing problem. Other than this pathetic shutdown I don't see any yet. |
2011-07-07T19:24:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-8864 |
| Thanks to Ron I now have google+, and I have to say that it's got everything I expected and it's far from intuitive to use. So they have some work before it's ready for prime time. However, every new user they get takes some small amount of money off of Basefook's (now) projected IPO of $100B, so I will be happy to give anyone who wants it an invite. | 2011-07-07T19:19:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8863 |
| Pat, a point well taken. British government policy hasn't always been decent, and not just to the Irish. | 2011-07-07T19:18:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/01/canada-day/#comment-8862 |
| Thanks, Sheryl! I just want to emphasize that since I wrote this the connection between unemployment and the decline of manufacturing is starting to feel more and more profound to me. If that is indeed what we have to do, a number of policy choices that are normally a careful balance become very easy. For example, letting the dollar drop may be the one thing we absolutely have to do - and screw the inflation because it just means we'll pay off our debt with cheap money later. I'd love to know what people think about this. |
2011-07-07T19:16:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8861 |
| Dale: Yes, it's annualized, and you're right that it's awfully close to the noise. Considering we're running a deficit of something like 5% of GDP and the rest of the economy is continuing to shrink. I think the term "Double Dip" is out once we call this one big Depression, yes. So if we slip back I'll just be more obnoxious about promoting the term "Managed Depression". :-) |
2011-07-06T20:11:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8855 |
| Jim: Yes, I didn't label the graph very well, did I! Sorry 'bout that. The "horse's mouth" on this stuff is the Department of Labor (DOL) and it comes out every Thursday at 8:30 Eastern Time, on a clock. Find it here: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm It's very handy to have this so meaningful and current. What's funny is that the stock market is only starting to react to this data as it's realeased - but it reacts quickly to other data like the ISM and GDP figures. Not very bright of them, IMHO. :-) |
2011-07-06T16:29:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8853 |
| Anna: Yes, that is what I've been saying all along - the one thing that has really changed in the last 30 years has been the gradual decay of the manufacturing sector since about 1968- which took a real dive at the start of this Depression in 2001. It was masked, briefly, by an increase in finance related jobs but those were purely ephemeral. Without those, the underlying problem was laid bare - and it shows us how we have to restructure to fix it. It's really very simple, but the policy makers and the news media are very slow to understand it because they are operating on the new "conventional wisdom" that wealth somehow comes passively from investment. That very wrong belief, born of the bubble economy of 1991-2008, has to be purged from our thinking before we can honestly get real. That is what I am trying to do, 3X a week. It's tough, but someone has to do it. :-) |
2011-07-06T15:59:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8851 |
| Alan: It came up a few posts ago - the English Civil War and subsequent fallout must have had some effect on the earliest colonies because they were left alone and had no choice but to run things themselves. Yet they remained under the wing of the mother country which clearly tried to strengthen its grip a century on once things became more stable. It's a very different experience than the Spanish, who were ripped apart by Napoleon and the colonies had little choice but to restore some sense of order on their own (thus demanding complete independence in the fervor of the times). History is fascinating this way, isn't it? I do think that echoes of Napoleon and the aftermath still rumble through most of the western world. Dale: I think we're all starting to have a "post-political" experience lately. Ideology is one thing, but getting things done is what government has to be all about. I can't tell you how many "liberals" really don't see government as the solution anymore, which is both very sad and potentially very liberating at the same time. I think that we're on the edge of some very big changes, and I hope that it gets as practical as I'd like. |
2011-07-05T15:44:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/04/founding-fathers/#comment-8830 |
| Why do I love writing this blog? Because you guys always do me one better! Yes, we have so much to achieve - but today is a day to be thankful we made it this far. Tomorrow we can get back at it and live up to the high ideals we were given, but today we can do what they did on July 4th, 1777 - adjourn for the day and holding a big celebration! | 2011-07-04T16:27:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/04/founding-fathers/#comment-8824 |
| Molson is a good idea. No one commented on the cute beaver pic! I am sad now. |
2011-07-01T21:40:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/01/canada-day/#comment-8812 |
| Anna: Here are some of the jokes I didn't use: They hate us so much they actually put George Washington in drag on their quarter. Some snide comment about Canadian Tire Money. Anything involving the "Superfluous U" like flavour, colour, etc. Their major export is bad weather in winter. And a few others involving the Metric System. Feel free to work these in as you can. :-0 |
2011-07-01T18:10:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/01/canada-day/#comment-8809 |
| Alan: I agree that the asbestos in particular is a disgrace, but on the whole their evil is much less than ours. I'll give them a day to celebrate being Canadians. Jim: I agree, I have yet to meet a real "redneck" - but since every nation has some they must do a good job keeping them at home. I'll thank them for that, at least. |
2011-07-01T17:41:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/01/canada-day/#comment-8807 |
| Thank you, Ron! Note to everyone: when I name my next child Ron you will know that this is the reason why. :-) | 2011-06-30T03:48:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8790 |
| Jack: I'll bet you have something. :-) Gini: Thanks, I try to make sure people don't take me too seriously. :-) I have a vision for the business use of it which may or not be correct based on implementation. It's sort of like the ads that come wrapped with the comics in a Sunday paper - and that some people read more closely than anything else. You want to know where to go on a Saturday? Open up the bar section (am I too focused on a narrow clientele? :-) ) and see what everyone is offering you, side by side - in their own terms. Businesses become content providers, as you envisioned. But it may not work that way, at least at first. But it could because it's set up properly. I can't wait to try it out! |
2011-06-29T23:41:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8788 |
| Alan: That is about the way I see it - and fortunately a lot of people in developing nations seem to as well. But to make that happen we have to keep social media from separating along lines of age, race, and class - which it very much does in the most conventional analysis of how to use it for business. We have to block that if we are going to realize its full potential and utility. As for the private companies that run them, well, I'm not sure there is a real alternative at this point but I can say that as much as I envisioned something just like google+ my only big change was an open source information sharing system more like RSS. :-) Shirley: I have the same problem at home, at least at times. It is an addiction for kids. But she says I'm a twitter addict in response, so I'm not sure I have much influence here! :-) |
2011-06-29T21:54:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8785 |
| Jim: Thanks, I think. :-) I'll make a living any way I can, and right now this gig has been going OK for me. I have a few other tricks up my sleeve, tho. Dale: I think you're right that it's no replacement, but it can help. |
2011-06-29T18:31:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8782 |
| Alan: Sorry I wasn't explicit enough - google+ is being rolled out to a limited number of people who can "invite" others to join, just as they did with gmail at first. I'm trolling for someone who can give me the golden ticket, er, invite. :-) I do agree that there is something there with facebook, and I do enjoy connecting with people from my High School who seem to have gone all over the world! We were all a strange lot, it seems, but what do you expect from Miami? :-) But can we solve the fundamental disconnection in our society with tech products? I remain skeptical, as I'm sure you are, but I am always eager to be proved wrong - this is important and anything that might help us connect and unite is worth a shot, IMHO. |
2011-06-29T16:09:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8779 |
| Howie: Good to see you, and thanks! You and I are very much on the same page regarding how much the snake-oil salesmen have wrecked the field and the great promise of social media. Google+ seems to have that well-thunk-out, grounded approach that the company is famous for - and their slow roll-out should help work the kinks out of it and allow some serious fine-tuning. Facebook really is a terrible platform for marketing, IMHO, and that simply interferes with their ability to make money other than by hype - which is to say it hurts longterm sustainability. Bleh. Newspapers figured it out long ago and, to me, that's what we're replacing over the long haul. I left that element out to keep this piece to 800 words, but I do think it's something worth thinking about as we develop SM: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/03/31/journalism-past-and-future/ Anna: I'm with you on this as well. Facebook is a first-generation attempt at this kind of thing but it is consistently half-way (putting it nicely) and set up more to chatter than to organize information in a way people can find useful. This should be a lot better. |
2011-06-29T15:52:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8776 |
| Jack, that is the real problem we are dealing with. Not only should banking be boring, fed/state/municipal bonds should be really boring, IMHO. Whenever someone has gotten creative with them (like Orange County, California) it's been a disaster. In these pending cases we're not even getting creative, we're just being stubborn. >shudder!< It's worth noting that the use of CDSs to make sovereign debt (national bonds) more palatable appears to be an innovation for these Greek bonds that are now about to default. Thank you so very much, Goldman Sachs! Back to Dale's early question - why does anyone buy this crap? I'm starting to seriously wonder - when they get creative and/or bring in Goldman Sachs, they might as well put up a big neon sign, Do Not Buy This!. | 2011-06-28T20:30:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8762 |
| Dan, history is the actions of so many people and we're only starting to understand some of the great efforts that got us to where we are today. This is a time for more organizing and activism, IMHO. I'll look up the Green Corn Rebellion, thanks for the tip! | 2011-06-28T19:34:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/06/little-things/#comment-8760 |
| Grace: With summer actually started, I'm spending a lot of time with my kids now. It is a wonderful thing - I only wish I didn't have to work and could do the most important thing I know to do, which is raise them to be smart and kind and perceptive and the best citizens they can be. They are both well on their way, and I am very proud of them! | 2011-06-28T19:32:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/08/schools-not-yet-out/#comment-8759 |
| Jim, I feel sorry for him now, too. He blew away so much with what he did. We haven't heard about this in a while, perhaps the quiet will help Weiner get his life back together. | 2011-06-28T19:30:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8758 |
| Jim: Riots happen over stupid things mostly. A real waste, iddinit? Jan, Anna: We are all waiting. That's why I followed this up with a plan of action. I'm tired of waiting - we need to get it moving again! Try anything and see what happens, I say. |
2011-06-28T19:29:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/13/waiting-for-the-go/#comment-8757 |
| Kevin, Bob: It is my hope that we look for the obvious and cheap solutions - but more importantly, try everything and keep our eyes on the results. We have to look towards not just patching this system but restructuring it. That's the only way out of this kind of situation historically, and I am sure that our times are no different at heart. | 2011-06-28T19:27:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8756 |
| Thank you, Luiz, for your comments and support! I enjoy your work very much and encourage people to read your blog (follow the link on his name!). I do not speak Portuguese but enjoy input from the great nation of Brasil. It is very much your turn to lecture us on how to properly run an economy and I hope you enjoy it - we are due for the change! :-) What Luiz says here is that we are re-inventing the wheel when it comes to properly running a national economy. Everything that should be done is known and rather fundamental. But we reject all of that and think we can do things our own way. He is right. We are behaving very badly and the whole world will suffer for it! Stick the text into google translate and you'll get pretty close. |
2011-06-28T19:25:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-8755 |
| Thanks everyone! I'd like to do these more often, but a silly poem is no substitute for a real explanation. In this case ... well, I can't explain why it got this far, to be honest! :-) | 2011-06-28T19:20:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/24/throw-away-the-key/#comment-8754 |
| Dale, you have a good question here. Why buy debt that looks bad at the start? I think there are many answers. The first is that Greece should be rated to pay a higher interest rate in part because of that. The second is that these are put into bundles with better assets from other nations in a pan-European collection that should even out. Plus, with the Credit Default Swap it is mostly insured. So the banks that buy them only bear part of the risk of default. Despite all of that it's clear that a lot of banks fell down in one or more of these key areas, given the potential turmoil that accompanies this event. The system is clearly "too big to understand". I find that very, very scary! |
2011-06-28T19:19:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8753 |
| Anna: I think that's why the CDS situation is never reported on - it's too hard to do well. But to me that makes it more critical! | 2011-06-27T19:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8746 |
| Jim: I'm going to have to take a bit of a pass on this one because I'm not sure that there is anything that a CDS can do that can't be done another way (such as more conventional insurance). If their main purpose is to hide transactions then requiring disclosure will simply make them go away and that will be that. if there is a purpose - well, with transparency I'd learn a lot more about it and I'll let you know! :-) I'm not entirely against market innovation, but I do think that on balance banking should be pretty boring. Alan: That is an excellent question and I agree that the mark of a better governed nation is that they have contingency plans. There's a point where an event that's no more likely than one in a million has a potential loss of over, say, a trillion dollars - meaning that you want to think of it on balance as a roughly million dollar liability. There are a LOT of those out there right now and a plan to deal with all of this stuff is indeed necessary. But it's a big job when you have a big nation! This is what I meant when I wrote about a Fault Tolerant society a while back: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/ |
2011-06-27T16:32:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8744 |
| Alan: That's why I did allow that default might be the best thing for Greece - even though it's a horrible thing for the EU. I think the situation has clearly gone past "Too big to fail" and into "Too big to understand". You are far from alone in not understanding what is going on - I don't think anyone, including the people who have placed very big bets (usually with Other People's Money, the real OPM of the financial world). | 2011-06-27T16:13:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8741 |
| It is very sad. I did want to do a more upbeat poem, but I couldn't. | 2011-06-24T19:09:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/24/throw-away-the-key/#comment-8719 |
| My guess is that you get a pass until the fix things. So you may not have to do it in 2011. :-) | 2011-06-24T19:08:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/24/throw-away-the-key/#comment-8718 |
| Thanks, everyone. This was supposed to be more fun, but I couldn't write a fun one (been thinking about it for weeks). When I read the Senate briefing against continuing any services at all this is what came to mind - not a lot of fun, but hey. | 2011-06-24T17:49:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/24/throw-away-the-key/#comment-8715 |
| Dan: This does kinda smell like a Rockefeller Republican plan, doesn't it? Oh well. I freely admit that if was President I'd have a lot more on health care and retraining, as has been suggested here. I don't see us competing with China at all, which is why Challenge Grants that help us to come up with new ways to be 1) Energy independent, and then 2) Sustainable are absolutely critical. I think we have no more than 10 years before some kind of crisis hits - if not with China, then at least with major price increases as the Developing World keeps on developing. |
2011-06-22T21:10:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-8705 |
| Kevin: Thanks! Infrastructure improvements do have the ability to transform the economy far more than anything else, but it takes a lot of time. Then again, we could use the jobs right now - so the sooner we get started the better. Everyone: I do agree that the most important thing is to talk about Restructuring - why we need it, what it might look like, how it might happen, etc. I know it's scary and offering some relatively cheap ideas to get it started is my li'l way of getting people beyond the scary "D" word (Depression! >shudder!< ) and towards a real future. It's not hat hard - it takes thought and commitment to something a little bit more than ourselves for once. But it is the future of our nation that is at stake - nothing less. |
2011-06-22T19:08:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-8703 |
| Jim, Anna, thanks! Dale: I left those two out largely because they are talked about by other people, but that's not to say that they shouldn't be done. They are also pretty expensive - but worth it as an investment in our most important resource, our talent. I almost didn't include infrastructure in the list for the same reason but I think it's important to say this as much as possible! I'm sure there are other things that the Federal Government can and should do, but these struck me as the most obvious. We have two additions already - any more? |
2011-06-22T16:37:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-8698 |
| There are people like that running, but they get chewed up in the process. Sadly. | 2011-06-21T18:59:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8674 |
| Ducks are funny ... | 2011-06-21T18:57:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8673 |
| Audrey: Thanks. There are a lot of lawyers in the Federal Government so it shouldn't be too hard. Besides, if Congress (antonym: progress) actually got a bill together it could indemnify the heck out of anything they did. :-) | 2011-06-21T18:56:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8672 |
| Bob: That's what I am constantly looking for. We need to break the economy free on the cheap. That means we need to break government free, too. There is no box! :-) Jan: Thanks! I am looking forward to what comes of it, too! |
2011-06-20T19:40:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8661 |
| Jim, Dale: That is pretty much what I have in mind, yes. :-) I'll put all these random ideas together this week and see what happens. | 2011-06-20T17:54:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8658 |
| Anna: Yes, I'm sure there are many things I didn't think of which could use this model! I want this to be one tool in our public policy toolbox is the main point. Energy independence is just one example! | 2011-06-20T15:58:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8655 |
| Tornado: It is too easy to be considered a "sport", but it could make a good "pastime". Anna: Yes, that's exactly it! But it is hard sometimes to write good jokes. I would like people to think about it as people like Jon Stewart lead by example, is all. I'm providing backup. :-) |
2011-06-19T21:12:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8644 |
| Bob, that makes sense to me - at least play it well, fer gooshsakes. | 2011-06-17T20:45:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8635 |
| Jack, Jim: Need to work a duck into those. Or a banana. Ducks are funny. :-) | 2011-06-17T20:44:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8634 |
| Dale, I completely agree here. I'm a lefty, sure, but those who are serving themselves and are far too cautious to take action (lest they upset someone) are of no use to anyone. We need to make fun of them, too. I honestly don't think there is a "left" and a "right" that makes a big difference in this time of crisis - what we need is a commitment to get our financial house in order quickly, which is to say a commitment to compromise and experimentation. Anyone, left or right, who is too full of themselves to make that happen is a problem. | 2011-06-17T17:56:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8630 |
| I think Sarah Palin is hilarious! She has no sense of humor at all and takes everythinng very personally. She can't back down and always can be counted on to dig a deeper hole for herself. Someone that flawed is very funny, IMHO. Beck isn't funny as much, but he's so easy to mock it makes up for it a bit. Give it a try, I think you'll take the sting out of 'em quickly if you give funny a chance! | 2011-06-17T15:58:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8628 |
| Alan: I think this is driven purely by the change to embarrass the Hell out of someone, really anyone. That's really sick stuff. It's gone on far too long. Anna: We can always hope. |
2011-06-16T18:40:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8617 |
| Has anyone ever done a poll on game-playing and politics? Or perhaps better yet a focus group? I'm constantly wondering how some injection of real voters and their processes/beliefs can be put into the "game". Seems to me that no one really likes this nonsense,but it keeps on keepin' on. Any ideas? | 2011-06-16T13:14:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8612 |
| Thanks everyone. "Let he who is without a voting record cast the first red rubber ball." (I'm also thinking about the stoning scene in "Life of Brian") This is the best idea on this blog yet, Jim. :-) |
2011-06-15T18:06:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8609 |
| Dan: I think we're past convincing people that their standard of living will go down unless X or Y happens. A little more desperation and people will understand that it is going down already. That's a lot of the reason I want to use the word "Depression" and create an appropriate sense of urgency. Werner: Yup. I've been writing about this for a while and I do think that it's finally at an end. You can't have real (inflation adjusted) wages stay stagnant for so long and not expect upheaval. I'm only shocked that it's taking so long for people to wake up. Alan: I accept your argument that it is time to demonize bankers and talk in revolutionary terms, even if we're not ready to start having proper riots in the street. They add nothing to our lives but take away so much. Work, especially hard work, has to be valued again. | 2011-06-15T15:54:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/13/waiting-for-the-go/#comment-8604 |
| Anna, I think they did. This piece rambles a bit too much, but the more I thought about games and how important they are the more I realized this is a vast issue. And yet there are so many people who want nothing more than to stand around and argue about the rules - as if winning is so much more important than playing. Why play at all if that's your attitude? They all lose. | 2011-06-15T15:49:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8603 |
| Dale: I think you really hit the nail on the head - this is a generational problem. It's been a generation in the making and will take a generation to get out of. But what does this generation have to fix the problems and move on? I don't know that they have anywhere near the resources that are necessary to move ahead without moving back pretty far first. Which brings me to ... Dan: Yes, our standard of living as we know it has to drop, I'm sure of that. But can we have a high standard of living without so much consumption? I say we can, too, and the comparison with continental Europe is a good one. It's also worth thinking about Brasil and Malaysia, who are rising in standard of living - what model will they follow? I think we have a lot to learn. As for the Western Cartesian / reductionism, I also think you are onto something. My whole concept of Connections Theory is based on a bridge between reductionism and holistic thinking of Asia, because both have good points. Forest and trees. :-) |
2011-06-14T17:53:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/13/waiting-for-the-go/#comment-8581 |
| Jim - I know I'll come back to this. Writing about the global economy almost requires it, IMHO! | 2011-06-14T04:38:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/#comment-8576 |
| Thanks, everyone. I hadn't thought about how everyone is in the same holding pattern as Wall Street - so I guess we do have something in common after all! Who knew? :-) Rafferty: I'm not against the TARP, per se, as it certainly seemed necessary to prevent general collapse. But to not have that effort matched with what was necessary to create a genuine restructuring through this depression and create jobs is mind-boggling. A New Deal is good for people and Wall Street alike. I chalk most of this up to laziness, to be honest - on the part of both Wall Street and the gummint. Edward: You have an excellent point. Sadly, most people think war is good for an economy - a delusion that comes from the mistaken notion that it was WWII that really ended the Great Depression of 1929. So it's worth saying over and over again until you are sick of it. I'll do my part as well, because you are quite right. However, the underlying fragility of the economy and lack of any attention to detail has been a serious problem as well - 2.5 wars have only made it worse. | 2011-06-13T18:32:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/13/waiting-for-the-go/#comment-8573 |
| Interesting turn on the discussion. Can I just say that I'm naturally very shy but come from a culture that is extremely outgoing. Living here means I'm constantly conffozed and have no idea what I'm doing - especially given that I'm pretty odd to start with. | 2011-06-12T19:51:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8542 |
| BTW, if anyone wants to dispute the numbers or simply double-check my math, I can send you my original spreadsheet - or just follow the links given to build a sheet yourself. | 2011-06-12T18:53:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8541 |
| Jim: Well, I guess that settles it for me. I have no idea what the polls would be like nationally, but I can't imagine people care about it any more than they do in his district. If they still support him, he should stay. Dan: It is a general problem and that is what I try to write about. This is just on brief moment where it all crystallizes into something that I think makes a good example of how sick we are. But the disease is pretty deep, isn't it? |
2011-06-10T17:56:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8534 |
| Dale: It really should never have gotten anywhere. it's pure sensationalism. They report this because they think it sells, and maybe because they have no idea how to present real issues like the Debt Ceiling and Budget. Anna: You know I'm all in favor of more women in power. The list of nations who entered "Golden Ages" once a woman took control is quite long: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/01/feminine-power/ But we are all just human after all. Once we forget that we'll never be honest about problems like this and we'll never get past them. It's not like he is the first guy to chuck everything for a quick sexual encounter - look at Dominc Strauss-Kahn of the IMF, for an even sleazier (and more obviously job affecting) example. |
2011-06-10T14:57:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8531 |
| Jack: Thank you - I can feel that already. LZ - the inter-generational war is getting to be a bit much. I think someone needs a week or two without all these fancy toys. We weren't "lame" for not having that stuff, we were real - and a lot tougher, I think. |
2011-06-09T14:06:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/08/schools-not-yet-out/#comment-8519 |
| Alan: Imagine if Al Gore had won ... wait, he did .. nevermind ... Seriously, I think about this all the time. The phrase "small and mean" is good for describing him, but there's something more casual about his smallness that defies even "mean" IMHO. Obama is definitely trying to stay chummy with the establishment, which is proving to be a bad move, but he hardly has a revolutionary personality himself. I honestly wonder if, in retrospect, McCain would not have been the best choice for 2000 after all simply because he (used to be be able to) think outside the boxes. But I can say for sure that Al Gore would have been far better than what we wound up with. The Bush Administration's military, security, economic, and social policies were rather universally the worst melange of antique leftist and rightist establishment goo possible and it was all done with very little thinking. |
2011-06-08T17:56:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/06/little-things/#comment-8509 |
| Thanks, everyone! My kids are very good and I have a great relationship with them. My oldest is about 15 now, just finished Freshman year of HS. No real problems at all, to be honest, and they are a joy to be with. | 2011-06-08T17:51:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/08/schools-not-yet-out/#comment-8508 |
| John: Thank you for your comments! I call the removal of Lady Jane Grey a "coup" for the simple reason that she was executed. That may seem a bit thin to you, but I'm trying to summarize a long history and establish patterns that many of my readers don't know about in just 800 words. Did I take a bit of license? Yes, I did. I hope you will find that this is the least of my problems (I say this knowing there are others!). But your point is well taken - Elizabeth I of England was clearly the legitimate heir by just about any reckoning. I still don't fully understand how the "Nine Day Queen" got there in the first place, to be honest. As for your contemporary politics in the UK, I will plead ignorance and throw myself on your mercy. Clearly, everyone I talk to has a different opinion and that's as well as it should be. It's clearly a complicated subject and a foreigner like me really has little business wading into it. However, in a certain sense you aren't going through anything that we aren't going through in the US except you may be a bit further along than we are in this sense. The proper role of a nation state and a centralized government in this day and age is very much up in the air in many places around the world, as it should be. Thank you again for your addition to my humble post. I do hope that we can all learn from each others' experiences and keep talking as we try to work all this national / multinational / global stuff out. I honestly don't want to see the UK break up, but I can't tell you exactly why or have a credible story as to why I should care at all. I do think we're all at some kind of inflection point in history for many reasons and the future could look very different than our past has. We shall all see, eh? In the meantime, the more we hear from each other the better. |
2011-06-08T01:48:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-8494 |
| Jan, I don't necessarily believe in conspiracies (previous posting!) but there are times when you can imagine a lot of people who want to keep their jobs all slightly slanting things a certain way and ... well, it sure acts and feels like a conspiracy. There's an old saw in science about the calculation of the charge on an electron - JJ Thompson did it first, and he was close. Each subsequent calculation was closer to what we know is the real answer, but .... not quite where we are today. The value goes in slowly towards the right answer with each successive measurement. I think this is one of those things. | 2011-06-08T01:29:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8492 |
| Dan. I'll look into that. | 2011-06-08T01:25:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/06/little-things/#comment-8491 |
| Dan, Jan: We have to learn how to talk about these issues in a way that gets people engaged. Being fun/funny is only part of it. Lisa: We can do it! I'm thinking of a "Get up, get down!" kind of feeling. Make it fun/funny/funky. But you're right, they are just bullies! |
2011-06-07T12:57:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/27/be-happy-be-gay/#comment-8488 |
| Kevin: I've been thinking about what you had to say a lot, it really affected me. Some day I may tell about the things my Dad did and what we've talked about since then. Nothing serious, but we had our disagreements. It really does shape our view of the world as kids. But I do agree that those at the top of the structure we have rather universally exhibit psychopathic personalities rather often. The power and money has clearly corrupted them, and the path to the top seems to weed out people who are decent - or corrupt them into more psychopaths. It has to change, it must. What can we do about it? I want to concentrate on that for a while because we have to all do something - no matter how small. And, as usual, I think that small is where it has to start. We're all human and we all make mistakes. A structure that does not encourage basic human decency is a structure that simply has to be replaced, IMHO. It may come to open rebellion one day. I think we have an open enough society that it won't go that far, but I'm ready for it if necessary. In the meantime, I think what we can do is to set the best example in our daily lives that we possibly can and start to reject all forms of "big" that encourage shitty behavior. That, and vote for anyone who shares these values when it comes time - regardless of political party. |
2011-06-06T16:41:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8481 |
| edadvocates (Kevin, everyone, in the future!): You were right to respond with some darkness because it was a dark piece. It was full of doom-de-doom-doom-doom, to quote Gir on "Invader Zim". That's fine as far as it goes and I'll respond to you there when I think I have my thoughts together (give me a bit). But I do not like complaining without providing a solution! Jack: Thanks! :-) Alan: I completely agree that we did this to ourselves. Contrast our response to an act of terror with the UK response to the Tube Bombings - posters saying "Keep Calm and Carry On" all over the place. We have a lot to learn about keeping what is important to us sacred and safe. But because we did this to ourselves, we can also reverse it ourselves. I happen to think it will require us to start from the little things and work up. Anna: Yes, Common Courtesy is pretty rare. Let's start a trend! Whether or not all this does stem from 9/11 (or, what I really meant, our reaction to that event that makes it a turning point) is not important. Let's all be courteous and kind and rebuild from there! Naïve? Maybe. But it's worth a try, at least until someone has a better idea. :-) |
2011-06-06T16:04:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/06/little-things/#comment-8480 |
| Not sure what to say at this point, I'll revisit this in a bit. I have an idea for tomorrow to flip this on its head and say something more positive - making two posts that I hope separate like oil and water. | 2011-06-06T04:33:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8464 |
| Alan: I like the "lying by inaction" concept. What we leave out is often very telling - it's what makes the lack of context type of lie work. Given how little people know about history it's one that's easy to pull off, too. Heck, it's not even a matter of knowing history as having a generally agreed upon version of it, right or wrong, that can provide context. And there are many examples where history doesn't even come into it. Repeating and/or going after known liars definitely gives them a credence they do not deserve. I am very sure that the Left made Michelle Bachmann, for example, by constantly attacking her. Much of this is tied up in how you attack them, however - I think that more ridicule and less sanctimony and outrage would have limited her appeal. But my fave saying remains that Bachmann is a fairy - if everyone ignored her, she would become invisible. I'm still thinking about personal responsibility and lying. Granted, a truly moral person would not lie just because they would feel terrible for it, but I think there is more. We've reached a point where honest people appear to be left behind socially and economically, which is a lot of pressure to be on the "take" like everyone else. I dunno yet. | 2011-06-04T15:09:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8456 |
| Jack: It's fun to use BS (or CowPuckey) as a technical term, meaning "the speaker doesn't even care if it's true or not". That is politics today, yes. Jim: I don't mean to make excuses for bad behavior. I think every anti-social thing I described is pretty lousy - lying is just part of it. Better? :-) Alan: Maybe I'm optimistic, but I do think that people are usually "clever" (note quotes). For example, calling emissions "air" is ... not correct but close to correct if you take 'air' to mean 'gas'. But it's still a lie because it's clearly meant to deceive, even if we were generous about technicalities. He still should damned well be ashamed of himself - but I'm guessing he's not. Yes, it is all a matter of checkbook - grabbing what you can. That's why I say the root is just selfishness. We've built a society on anti-social behavior. That's why I say we either have to retrace our steps or sit down and wait for death as a culture. There is no way forward here. Dale: I'll be as clear as possible - all of this is really sh*tty behavior that needs to be called out. There is no excuse for the selfishness that's come to define our world. That includes lying, lack of compassion, and rudeness. I'm doing my best to set an example here as I can. |
2011-06-03T21:20:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8453 |
| I think your on to something here. I agree with Alan that its optimistic to say that people rarely outright lie. But the other kinds of lie are totally constant anymore. You can't trust a thing anyone says anymore. And there does have to be a reason for that though I agree you can't even appear to be making excuses for lying. | 2011-06-03T21:05:27+00:00 | Dale Samuelson | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8452 |
| Thanks, everyone. I've been thinking about this ever since I saw the guy on the Daily Show. I just felt there was something missing - a bigger context. | 2011-06-03T18:01:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8448 |
| Jim, I think that's the message we have to take away from this. If you'll recall I referenced a piece by Rob Arnott after I did my write-up on the Managed Depression. The link to that other work is contained in here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/ There are some discrepancies between his calculations and mine as to the "real" Real GDP (emphasis deliberate). His numbers are consistently worse, except last year. It took me a while to find out why, and I hit it almost by accident in the commentary noted above - the inflation numbers used to calculate Real GDP are just plain fudged. I don't think I trust a damned thing anymore, to be honest, and in the future I will calculate everything on my own to the best of my ability. This is all without going into what the GDP numbers represent, which has its own share of fudge - but that part of it I think I understand and it's at least consistent from year to year. I also think this is shameful behavior and that our news providers are doing an absolutely terrible job of calling out government on its abuse of important figures - especially the utterly useless "headline" unemployment rate, aka "U3", which should never be used for anything. |
2011-06-02T20:31:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8414 |
| Anna, it is a hard concept to get your head around. I did my best in this piece: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/03/25/money/ It says right on the bills that money is nothing more than the "Full faith and credit of the Federal Reserve". In other words, it's only as good as our ability to manage it - and the faith that the world puts into that. It gets a little bit less all the time - not because we're more cynical, but because that's how they manage it. It makes sense to me, at least at an intuitive level, once I get past the idea that there is some kind of fixed value. There just isn't. Everyone has to get over that. |
2011-06-01T18:26:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8402 |
| Dale, that is about where it's been overall. It hides a lot of sins. But I do think that this is the real root of discontent in the nation right now - the "official" numbers don't match what people feel in their guts. In this case, intuition is quite right, and though we're not feeling the increase in energy (read: gasoline) prices as much as we have in the past it still really hurts. We're barely treading water - if that good. | 2011-06-01T15:59:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8400 |
| Thanks, everyone. Never forget! | 2011-05-31T00:27:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/30/memorial-day-2/#comment-8376 |
| Jim, there is always a better way. :-) | 2011-05-29T03:08:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/27/conch-republic/#comment-8367 |
| Dan, Jack, I'm not sure. The early polls are useless, of course, but this is far closer than any other referendum has started. I think that a new direction could make this into a big surprise. If you had only people under 30 voting, BTW, I'm quite sure we would have same-sex marriage by now. So it is just a matter of time. I say we expose the cynical attempts to get people out to the polls for Republicans for what they are and have fun with it as much as we can. These guys deserve to be made fun of! Besides, most of them are real serious people who never crack a smile and try to make everything in their lives political. They won't know how to respond to humor and fun. |
2011-05-28T17:44:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/27/be-happy-be-gay/#comment-8366 |
| Anna, I'm not looking forward to it, either. The amount of outside money that will come into Minnesota will be horrible. And a lot of outsiders will bring their own messages to our state, meaning our own values will be under assault from everyone else's opinion of what we are supposed to do. Ug. Jim, I know this approach won't sit well with people at first. But keep in mind that when the Republicans developed this fight they anticipated a reaction just like what you said - calling on people to do what they know is right. I say we have to catch them off guard and hit them where they don't see it coming. |
2011-05-27T17:34:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/27/be-happy-be-gay/#comment-8360 |
| Alan: Sorry about that. Happens a lot to me a lot. | 2011-05-26T16:28:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/20/dirty-jobs/#comment-8348 |
| Dan, there's little doubt that the Chemurgy movement of the 1920s was out-spent, despite the backing of Dow and Henry Ford. I think you are very right that real agricultural advancement has always been a prisoner of high-buck politics. Look at ethanol for gasoline, for example - a really bad idea that has sucked up a lot of money for little benefit - except to raise corn prices. | 2011-05-26T16:26:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/23/playground-rules/#comment-8347 |
| Alan, that's the kind of thing I would like to see quantified. When I set out to write this I was amazed at how little information there is on containerized cargo and the infrastructure requirements. But all over the world there is a huge investment being made in this. My hunch is that rail bridges will be raised wherever possible, even at great expense, wherever they cannot double-stack. | 2011-05-26T16:24:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/#comment-8346 |
| Dan: Many people have contributed to the design of these systems, so I punted because it's hard to summarize easily. But it did start in the US but was refined constantly from about 1960-1980, when it took pretty much the form we see today. The wikipedia article is OK but it has some great links to follow. Dale: Yes, that BNSF yard is full of them anymore, spilling over to Midway Stadium and area. The CP Yard over by Pig's Eye has even more of them around - but they cannot double-stack through the Short Line. Remember when a train hit the Summit Ave bridge a few years ago? It was a double-stack mistakenly sent the wrong way (oops!). |
2011-05-25T21:22:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/#comment-8342 |
| Jan, I should have included this link with some fun facts: http://cscmp.org/press/fastfacts.asp The US has 28 million TEU per year, or about 1/4 per family. That is about 350 cu ft of stuff, or enough to fill a living room that is 16 feet square to a height of 15" - which, if you think about it, is about what happens on a typical American Christmas day. :-) |
2011-05-25T15:42:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/#comment-8339 |
| Dan, you're off on a tangent, but you know what I can't resist! All I will say now is that the real stories of Rome have yet to be told, but they are well worth it IMHO - so much of what made Western Europe lies in Rome, and it echoes until today. And the Black Panther stuff is also going to keep echoing in ways that seem pretty strange until you understand it, much as various Nazi/KKK things still do as well. I think I have a working knowledge of those, having grown up where radicalism was always just below the surface for a lot of reasons, but I could see getting a lot more "into it". | 2011-05-24T16:27:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/23/playground-rules/#comment-8329 |
| Ron, I haven't revisited this in a long time. All I can say is that whoever she is (and I'm going with "she" for a lot of reasons, mostly the touching roles for Rocky) she clearly wants her privacy for some reason that has held up a very long time. I have to respect that and let the mystery be. However, I would like nothing more than a chance to meet her and say "Thank you" for putting a fire under me when I was a kid. I know I would not care about dialogue as much as I do if it hadn't been for my chance to learn from the master, every Friday night! |
2011-05-24T16:23:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2007/08/20/juanita-bartlett/#comment-8328 |
| Dan, you pretty much have it. The Republican base has a tendency to show up, but there are a few on the fringes that they need to energize (a good argument can be made that Emmer lost as Gov more than Dayton won if you look at Republican turnout, esp. in some key areas). What I'm not sure about yet, which is why I didn't write about this today, is that a gay marriage prohibition amendment may energize the left, especially the young, which would be a disaster for the Republicans. I think at this point it's fair to say that the dice are in the air. Not something I want to have happen with what I consider basic civil rights, but if there's a fight it might be best to bring it on. It's up to the DFL to do something about this, IMHO. I'm thinking about what to do on this issue. As usual, my approach will be a bit different - but geared to raising voter turnout, for sure. I do think we need humor to engage the young - but the rest is up for debate. |
2011-05-23T17:36:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/23/playground-rules/#comment-8321 |
| Alan, you're exactly right. We can't go by playground rules and expect to get anything done - or get respect. What this does is supress voter turonout among real adults because it appears to have no connection with reality. The more we play into that, the more sure we can be that Democrats will lose. I don't know why this is even controversial, either. Jim, Dale, it's not amusing at all, is it? And it is getting weirder all the time - in large part because the "entertainers" have real power. They are holding the red rubber ball right now. Holding it and making sure no one plays with it while they go on with their histerionics. Bleh. |
2011-05-23T16:37:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/23/playground-rules/#comment-8319 |
| Molly, Dale, thanks. It's just a matter of values in the end, which are clearly reflected in the "value" we put on doing actual hard work. I'm not the best example in the world, I admit, but I got a degree in Chemical Engineering because I wanted to make stuff for a living - I would prefer to get dirty. I used to beat up clothes like you wouldn't believe when I had a lab job. But there's just no pay in it. That's sad. Alan, it's been said that "Machines should work, people should think". That's great as far as it goes, but someone has to keep the machines running. And who gets the benefit from what the machines produce? Ultimately, a nation's wealth is tied to what it makes and that has to include real, physical stuff - we live in a real, physical world. Intellectual property is fine as far as it goes but, like investment, it doesn't generate real wealth until someone puts it into practical use. |
2011-05-20T15:01:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/20/dirty-jobs/#comment-8270 |
| Dale, I do not know why there is such hostility towards this plan from the left from the Social Security angle. An example from Daily Kos is here http://tinyurl.com/6fg7k24 and I and have to say that it's not particularly coherent as a policy discussion. For the record, I completely disagree with Simpson that the retirement age has to be lifted, and even proposed a system where we can have people as young as 55 voluntarily retire to make room in the economy for the next generation. Raising the retirement age only increases the size of the labor force at a time when there's an excess. However, the discussion Simpson is leading is long overdue and has to happen. And this says nothing about the rest of the plan, either. So what are the objections to this plan? I haven't found anything that tells me that my initial read - this the start of the way out of the darkness - is in any way wrong. |
2011-05-19T03:20:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/18/dangerous-games/#comment-8242 |
| Jim, I did forget to include a link. Simpson and Bowles did not get the 14/18 votes necessary to pass their plan on to Congress, hitting only 11. So, technically, it's dead - but can be brought back at any time if Congress wants to. The two are still shopping their plan around: http://tinyurl.com/3npjk84 Because it didn't pass the bipartisan commission the plan received little attention after an initial flurry, but among policy geeks like me it's still seen as the best hope for a compromise. |
2011-05-18T15:56:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/18/dangerous-games/#comment-8219 |
| I don't think there really is a macroeconomics, and to be honest I never really did. It's a question of how you can possible add up all the microeconomic effects into one big integral. That's what gets me talking about Connections Theory and all that other stuff. I'm also a huge fan of Game Theory for this reason. Age of Fracture? I call this the Fractal Era, never heard the other term. |
2011-05-17T19:15:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-8192 |
| Dan, you get full credit for bringing Iran-Contra to my attention, yes! And I do remember those hearings very well. It's probably what made me a Democrat - well, that and Mike Dukakis (as I wrote about back in January). Democrats may be ineffective, disorganized, and a bit cowardly but in the end they are ... well, I dunno, there's something I like in there. :-) Oh, wait, I have it - Democrats at least give a damn about things other than themselves! | 2011-05-17T19:12:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/#comment-8191 |
| Dan, sorry for the slow response. Been very busy! I do think that most people want to contribute something to the world. Your example of a small community would have even more pressure on everyone to do their part. It also probably helps a lot when it is pretty obvious what work needs to be done because it's right in front of you. Thinking about what's different in the modern world, I came up with two things that are very different from what you describe - and makes me think that this is a very useful way of looking at things. One is anonymity - where people can slip through the cracks and feel isolated (which is sort of what I think Kafka was getting at). The other is a high degree of specialization, where it's hard to know just what you have to contribute to the world (something I struggle with quite a lot, since my chosen specialty of chemical engineering is not in high demand right now). I think this is a very good way to look at things. As I said, I do think nearly every one wants to contribute something to the world - which I guess makes me a Marxist at heart. You've given me a lot to think about, so thank you very much. |
2011-05-17T19:09:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/16/structural-unemployment/#comment-8190 |
| Alan, we posted just past each other, so I didn't see your comment when I responded. It looks like we said about the same thing at the same time - but from different perspectives. I do not disagree that what we have is a direct result of a generation-or-so long lack of investment in infrastructure, people, and all the things that government needs to invest in. I've written on that many times before. But what can we do to go forward? Man, it's hard to know. But the disconnect between our politics and reality is definitely the biggest problem we face - because until that's corrected I don't see us tackling anything real. |
2011-05-16T18:19:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/16/structural-unemployment/#comment-8185 |
| Anna, yes, I think someone should be calling for that. Which leads directly to: Dan, I see your point completely. There's no appetite for a big new program. I've been calling for smaller programs such as a focus on reducing the overhead per employee - a natural public / private partnership that benefits business. To me, that's a minimum, and the fact that we haven't gotten that far is very disturbing. Beyond that, a major job training program may be a bit much to swallow, but the more information about developing jobs can help people make decisions that guide their own training - again, a real minimum. It may be too much to ask as well. But - and this is very important - I don't see the private economy restructuring in anything like a reasonable time without this kind of restructuring in government and politics. People have to start demanding much more and much better from our politics. This is what has propelled my writing on the topic for the last 4 years. |
2011-05-16T17:48:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/16/structural-unemployment/#comment-8184 |
| Alan, when I say "success" I mean they accomplished their goals - including secrecy. The whole operation seemed pretty ridiculous to me from the start, especially our fear of Daniel Ortega. But they did pull it off, or at least nearly so, before being discovered. That almost never happens, from what I can tell. Anna, I didn't want to name any names because I don't see that they are important at all to this story. It's all a diversion and a rather transparent one at that. Feh. |
2011-05-13T19:42:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/#comment-8153 |
| Alan, I know governments and big biz "conspire" all the time, but I was trying to think of the more popular definition - an elaborate scheme conceived and executed entirely in secret. People always talk and operations like that are found out pretty quickly. But Iran-Contra went along for quite a long time, with great success, before Hasenfus was shot down. I think that by the time it was discovered the major goals had been achieved. That is pretty unusual, from what I can tell. I looked the other way at a lot of Arnott's language, as I usually do when reading this stuff. Yes, people in these kinds of places have very different friends than you and I (as does Paul Krugman, BTW). But I think he has something very important to add to the discussion, and it's a lot more elaborate than what I was saying (but in principle the same). I'm always looking for new perspectives and this one count as one worth listening to, IMHO. But I do wish he'd stay with the facts, yes. |
2011-05-13T17:37:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/#comment-8150 |
| Jim, thanks! I don't think that angle was ever proven, but I remain very suspicious. Another point worth making - in the piece on conspiracies I noted that Southern Air Transport was a well known CIA front operation. The airplane that Eugene Hasenfus was shot down in over Nicaragua was owned by Southern Air Transport, if I remember correctly. There's a definite tie-in. | 2011-05-13T16:38:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/#comment-8148 |
| Pat, it may come down to simple war profiteering. It's classic, I'll give you that. But it's so lame - all that for a few bucks? I guess if we can't come up with anything else we might have to go with it. It just doesn't make for a good conspiracy theory in my opinion - there are other ways of looting the treasury. But it also got Bush re-elected and a solid Repub majority to do what he wanted. Perhaps it all adds up in the end to a good conspiracy after all. |
2011-05-12T14:20:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/11/conspiracy-theories/#comment-8132 |
| Alan, I do agree that we value intelligence more than intuition and that drives people to be a bit less honest than they should be about who/what we are as a species. I'm a scientist at heart (well, an engineer by degree) but it alarms me no end how much faith people have in science. It's horribly misplaced and lacks any good context because we are so dishonest about what it means to be a chimp that stood up on the savannah and looked out over the horizon. Anna, I think that there are no plotting geniuses (geneii?) outside of cartoons. Just a lot of plodders, not plotters, and some can take advantage of the situation well. I tried to find counter-examples, but I don't think they exist. Who knows? Dan, I forgot that the CIA numbing the population conspiracy came from the Black Panthers. I think they did have a point, but it was a bit inflated. Most conspiracies probably have that kernal of truth in them, eh? | 2011-05-12T02:41:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/11/conspiracy-theories/#comment-8125 |
| Alan, I'm not sure I want to "go there", but I think I can separate out the good use of religion/spirituality as a kind of personal centering from the bad use that wants to force the world to be in a certain image. If I can add that I'll agree with you. There are a lot of things in this world that none of us can really understand intellectually, but a system that helps us accept them and focus ourselves to move on, irrational or not, is still helpful. When that lashes out it can be very destructive. Yes, it's very similar in that sense. Jim, I don't know what if anything is at the heart of that set of theories. It certainly has been a living for a lot of people. I do believe in the lone gunman, but a conspiracy that put him there is always possible - yet I've never seen anything that seemed plausible to me lay it all out. |
2011-05-11T15:09:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/11/conspiracy-theories/#comment-8113 |
| Dan, in many ways Depression is more than just a severe Recession. I think the real issue is that in a Recession a major industry has to restructure, but in a Depression the whole economy has to. It seems to be something that happens every 2 generations, so there is something about investing / work habits in there, too, I think. jd, good to meet ya, and "have to name it to tame it" is a tag line far to excellent for me to avoid stealing at some point! :-) I think most politicians and economists are being cowards on this one, I really do. |
2011-05-10T19:42:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-8083 |
| Been super slow to respond - turned into a bizzy day. OK, Dan, I agree that a real Free Market is strictly an ideal that has never been realized. As I've written before, pure Capitalism is very often in opposition to the Free Market, something that people never seen to quite "get' 'round here. I'll go as far as to say that it is probably true that we only have these periodic Depressions because there is no real Free Market in practical terms. |
2011-05-10T13:08:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-8075 |
| Thanks, everyone. Jim, I have been getting a lot of questions lately as to what the Hell I was talking about as I use the term "Managed Depression" pretty often. I hate to repeat myself, but the discussion of this stuff goes back nearly 4 years and it's a bit disjointed. New people are reading me and I have to explain this. Besides, I do think things changed very suddenly here and we are about to get real (I hope!). Would it be better to let the Free Market just run its course? In the long run, the answer is a definite "yes", IMHO. However, people have this strange habit of eating every day. A hungry population is a dangerous population and can cause a lot more destruction than the Depression itself. Then again, some creative destruction is always necessary. I think we may have tipped the balance a little too far in the "no pain" direction. I say the first thing to do is be honest about what's going on. That may be a little pain, but it's not much. |
2011-05-09T16:38:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-8034 |
| Dan, there are a lot of things like that just going away. Some of it is totally predictable, but it's all quite painful. Jack, I think a responsible government has to acknowledge this problem and respond before it becomes a worse crisis. I almost did a story today on how 2/3 of fed spending is on autopilot, meaning that we can't do anything new or respond to situations. That's a serious problem waiting to become a catastrophe - as I think you can see. Jim, I tried to get that graph together but the data wasn't cooperating. Something weird at the St Louis Federal Reserve site. I just ran out of time. But yes, the initial claims leads hiring by 1-2 months - and reporting by about 3 months. Basically, companies stop firing before they start hiring (duh!). It's a cute trick. :-) |
2011-05-06T19:57:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/06/churn-burn/#comment-8021 |
| Anna, the net gain was 244k - so we lost at least 1.7m but gained closer to 2.0m. Sorry for the confusion, I should have labeled it better. That means about 20% of our workforce is changing jobs in a year, which is not unreasonably high but it is higher than it's been in a while. I have to hunt down the figures on the total churn in the economy, but those aren't tracked closely by anyone official. | 2011-05-06T16:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/06/churn-burn/#comment-8017 |
| Alan, excellent question as to how the English Civil War played out in North America - I've never seen *anything* on that topic! There had to be at least some nastiness. As for the UK splitting, I think that a "federal" solution is in the works. With a regional Parliment in Scotland, Wales, and Ulster all they need is one for England to start serious devolution. That could be interesting! I don't know about Cornwall, tho - that is an interesting development that we'll have to see. But it's not my nation, so we'll just have to let them think through what they want. I have a longer response to David K, who really made me think, that I hope to get to later. There's some interesting stuff when people share as much as the US and UK do - we learn a lot from each other, I think. |
2011-05-04T21:48:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-8006 |
| I've been slow to respond, but I think we have a good topic here. I think I regret saying that Iraq was "pointless" - I should have said "not worth the tremendous blood and cost", but we can differ on that one no matter what. The point is that it's time to move on and take care of what we should - keeping our nation running and increasing freedom and opportunity around the world (which is to say not taking the easy way out with bullets and dictatorships). | 2011-05-04T21:44:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden/#comment-8005 |
| I think we're all on the same page here, but thanks for being a part of it. If only we can get something like a movement together! Here's hoping. You never know, eh? | 2011-05-04T21:41:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/04/back-to-reality/#comment-8004 |
| A very good point, Alan, as usual. This whole sorry mess brought out the very worst in us, including the utterly pointless diversion in Iraq that killed so many people. I heard someone on the radio today trying to justify that war - and I couldn't believe he was still trying to do that. It is time to talk openly about what we did in anger and why so much of it was wrong. That is the best way to put this truly behind us. |
2011-05-02T16:45:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden/#comment-7985 |
| Jim, Anna, I do think that the media I'm hearing has found the right tone so far. It seems a bit self-centered to concentrate on our losses along the way, but I'll forgive that today. We did lose a lot and we had to seek justice for our losses. The world supported us for that reason and I hope that it continues to come down that way. | 2011-05-02T15:45:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden/#comment-7983 |
| David: Thank you for the allowance of a bit of slop - I was trying to cram this into 800 words for people who knew nothing about it at all (but, to my mind, really should). I didn't quite make it to 800 words, but I came close. Yes, many details were glossed over as succinctly (and cheekily) as possible. But missing the Act of Union in 1707 was just wrong and thank you for the correction. I know, British people (even republicans) hate it when I say the Windsors are of German descent, and I suppose that I shouldn't note that. The UK is a very diverse nation and there is room for everyone. My apologies for any offence. |
2011-04-29T22:14:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-7975 |
| Anna: This is never taught in US schools, but I think everyone in the UK knows all about it - even the bad stuff. Sharif: I've talked about Imperialism other places, so I'm not shy about it at all. You probably gleaned that I am Irish so I can see why you went easy on me. :-) It is rather amazing that a nation this ripped up on religion was able to form such an empire, but I do think that concentrating on external politics makes internal politics easier very often - so perhaps the great empire is not such a mystery after all. It may have been a diversion just as the royal family is in the end. Jim: I say it starts with Henry VIII not just for the Reformation but because he lost the last traces of land in France, forcing England to look towards the British Isles to claim its territory. They ceased being a continental power pretty much forever - and aren't really to this day. You can always argue the point, of course, and perhaps I shouldn't have included it. :-) |
2011-04-29T20:38:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-7973 |
| Gwen, it was lovely and I wish the young couple the very best. They both seem like very good people. But I just had to post this today, largely because I don't think Americans know just how screwed up everything got - and how important it was to the creation of this nation as we know it. Separation of Church and State was not just some great intellectual ideal - it was an absolute necessity to people who had seen the alternative twist through a history of terrible bloodshed and disaster. It's something I think we should all remember well. But all my best to Will and Kate. I'm always rooting for the UK, even if I do think we're better off without all this stuff. :-) |
2011-04-29T16:11:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-7963 |
| Anna, I don't think they did get foreign aid. I think they need to become a bigger threat first. Perhaps they should move to cut off our nation's supply of shrimp, threatening to end the all-you-can-eat seafood buffet as we know it. Jim, Dave Barry is a documentarian. Not to take away appreciation of his talent, but he does have the easiest job in the world. Just remember that Miami is one corner of the Bermuda Triangle and it all starts to make sense - well, once your moral compass starts to spin, that is. |
2011-04-27T17:11:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/27/conch-republic/#comment-7948 |
| Dale, Alan, I see a lot of cross-currents that seem to connect here. I've been thinking for a while that some kind of new institutions are needed on the left - something that does have the air of permanence that we just don't have in media or online generally. This may be a good place to create such a thing because there is a well defined need. We have DailyKos, Truthout, perhaps even (ack!) PuffHo, but what is the end result of all this? It's worth thinking about and supporting. The left always has less money but more people power on its side - that's our history. Getting people engaged is the key to a resurgent left - and it also helps keep things relevant. Perhaps there is the nucleus of a very important institution online that will make all the difference if we get our act together. I think we have identified several needs that work together. |
2011-04-26T17:54:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/25/whats-up/#comment-7933 |
| Great stuff! Thanks everyone! Alan, "infantalized" is an excellent and descriptive word. I know I can handle things for myself, but I worry for the future of our nation. I have two kids that have to cope with whatever world we're creating for the next 70 years or so and I'm not happy about it. The trend to globalism is a wonderful thing in many ways but we are getting left so far behind by insisting that nearly everything we hear about is filtered through our own narrow perspective. Jim, yes the people who watch that crap are a "fringe" at best and are NOT a significant part of the population. It's like what I always say about Michele Bachmann being a fairy - if everyone ignored her, she'd become invisible. I'd like to see most of the playground-rules games that pass for "analysis" on all of these channels become invisible. But I agree that most people take it with a grain of salt. Dale, I think you have a good point about how they all inflate each others' influence. It's like the story of having one dog or two - one dog may bark at the mailman once in a while, but two dogs will never stop barking - they keep whipping each other up. In a certain sense maybe I should think of them as one channel and they all have about 3% of the population in total, which is less of a fringe group, no? :-) |
2011-04-25T21:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/25/whats-up/#comment-7902 |
| Alan, I've been thinking about this some more. The reason I'd like to see it on a mass media like cable TV is that I would like to have real news play a bigger part of the discussion nationally, as it does in just about any other nation. Truthout is a good example of an aggregator, but they only have about 30k visitors a day from what I can find. But as I think about it, they and similar aggregators are about as likely to grow as any cable show is to get much over 1M viewers, so it may be that cable tv and the 24/7 news stations are just not particularly useful in the long run. I'm going to keep thinking about this. The real goal is to get rid of the fluff that pollutes our airwaves and I took off from a tangential story, the one from "On the Media" that I cited. That may be too tangential after all. |
2011-04-25T19:40:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/25/whats-up/#comment-7898 |
| Alan: Yes, but you have to find it. That's always the hard part. I do think that "curation" will be more important because there is so much in the way of news that a human or (staff of humans) who we have grown to trust can deliver things outside of our normal perspective and give us stuff we might not otherwise think of. I'm very glad to have what we do, but making the best use of it is very difficult. Anna: I'm very tired of "celebrities". There is so much that doesn't make the public discussion that would be far better use of the airtime. Ug. |
2011-04-25T16:05:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/25/whats-up/#comment-7896 |
| All ya got? That's quite a lot! These things are far more universal than we think. People feel like they have to ditch Christianity or Judaism or whatever they grew up in believing that this makes them a smarter or better person. But when we see how universal much of our traditions are and how far back into deep pagan times they that should put it to rest. I would hope people would realize that ditching this stuff doesn't make you smarter or better - it makes you much duller and lonely for absolutely no good reason at all other than your own ability to kid yourself. | 2011-04-23T20:20:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/22/perspective/#comment-7871 |
| Thanks - I think. :-) I'm just trying to bust people's perspectives a bit, and on a holiday like this it seemed like a good time to introduce a concept I picked up listening to a lot of Bach. I honestly think that some of his sacred (religious) works are meant to evoke what the Mind of God must hear / see / perceive. |
2011-04-22T22:00:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/22/perspective/#comment-7857 |
| Thanks everyone, Jo, good to see you again (if you're the Jo I'm thinking of!). Been pretty busy, will check out the recs today. Dan, I'm not surprised that the farce that is ethanol is killing things. We had a plant here in the West End and the stuff that came out of it was very toxic. A lot of sulfamines that act as antibiotics are made in the process and they are bad news. This nonsense just has to end. I should write about it, but I've been slow. I also want to thank all of you for being so open to how I use the words "progressive" and "conservative". The language of our "debate" is really getting to me and I do want to find out what went wrong there at the very heart of it all. Thanks! |
2011-04-21T17:07:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/20/o-brother-where-art-thou/#comment-7853 |
| Jim, if you're asking me to "Show, don't tell" I think you're right on here. Let's get on that. I'll need everyone's help to put something together but we can do it. I am getting at several things at once here so I'm trying to rely on more than words to paint the picture. One of the things I truly believe is that most people are intelligent and arrive at their opinions for what seem like very good reasons, at least to them. The problems arise from perspective, not intelligence. Some perspectives are damned narrow, silly, or even bizarre if people thought about those long enough. I want to get people to take a strong half-step back and think about where their opinions come from. The other is something I do write about a lot, and it's maybe the start of a platform. For the Democrats, I'll always start where I did just after the last election: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/ Maybe I'm too practical about this at times, but this isn't just about me. It's about getting our act together as a nation/culture/people for once and cutting out all the selfish whining. That may take real leadership, as it usually does, but it also takes all of us. |
2011-04-20T17:36:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/20/o-brother-where-art-thou/#comment-7844 |
| Thanks, Anna. I guess this should be filed in the "history does matter" category. But language matters a lot, too, and the lack of good language is a real problem IMHO, especially as people throw labels around all over the place. A platform? I guess I've taken a few stabs at that but it may be time to start working on one if we're going to make a new movement out of all these loose feelings and historical tidbits, eh? |
2011-04-20T15:58:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/20/o-brother-where-art-thou/#comment-7842 |
| Audrey, that would be great as far as I'm concerned! Interesting point about the last Depression (around here we're on #5 ... :-) ) It's true that elegance was in style, at least in movies and how many bands presented themselves, as a break from the drudgery of getting through hard times. We'll see what comes on. |
2011-04-19T02:31:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/18/grunge/#comment-7818 |
| BTW, I have a strange feeling that Comedy Central writers frequent Barataria. It's a long story, but .... I watch things. If y'all are really out there, as I suspect, why not write me a note or just say "Hello!"? | 2011-04-16T14:39:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/15/infotainment/#comment-7801 |
| Jack, you're clearly right. Guess that's what you wanted to hear, yes? :-) But I have a feeling that things are about to break in a particularly bad way. The small taste of power that the Angries have right now is causing them to be real jerks about a lot of stuff, forcing crisis after crisis (some of which, I have to say, need to be forced into crises, but that's another story). At some point I do think that a moderate political movement has to spring up where people are looking for sanity - reinforcing their own views, yes, but views that aren't extreme. I'll be waiting. No, I'm not holding my breath. :-) |
2011-04-16T14:36:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/15/infotainment/#comment-7800 |
| Janine, I think they will explode one day. Or at least their heart will (assuming they have one). Craig, I agree on Olbermann and hope he is free to be himself with no pretense at all. It's sort of what I do here, except this is pretty limited. Hey, I'd like a show! (hint!). :-) Yes, it is the audience's fault in the end. I don't know why people like being riled up. I can only imagine that people like Gretchen Carlson probably want us to be as sour and joyless as she comes off, but I don't know why anyone would find that anything other than really, really dull. |
2011-04-15T18:02:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/15/infotainment/#comment-7780 |
| It is a strange thing, Dan. When I'd pass a farm that was giving way to development I used to joke, "Shoulda used more suburbacide." Soon, however, we'll see the results of investing so heavily in a monoculture - one crop, one way of doing things, one way to get around. Saint Paul was laid out as a trolley city, which can still be seen on Grand, Randolph, Selby/Marshall, et cetera. Things occur in lines, not at nodes per se. It's been retrofitted for cars pretty heavily over the years, but the original uses remain largely intact. A place designed entirely for cars, however, won't make such an easy conversion. You'll see more malls fill out to eat their parking lots, for example, but distance will always be a problem. Extra wide streets will have plenty of room to retrofit (unlike narrow little streets like Randolph east of Hamline, a mere 66'!) but the final leg to houses will be tricky, I'm sure. But it will happen at some point, I'm quite sure, unless a very cheap source of energy is identified that can be concentrated into a small enough space to power an automobile as efficiently as the cheap petrol that defined these places in the first place. We'll just have to see what happens. |
2011-04-13T23:58:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/13/suburbanization-of-poverty/#comment-7707 |
| Liz, there's nothing to worry about. In fact, I nearly forget as well. Bob, I've made if very clear - I am not Don Quixote, y'all are Don Quixotes. The average person in this nation has had their mind poisoned by the fantastic tales spun by the media. I am a dutiful Sancho Panza, coming along for the adventure, the chance to chronicle the story, and to make sure that the old guy doesn't get into too much trouble. All I ask is for the same reward Sancho Panza got, which is Barataria - literally "cheap lands", a common slang for swamp. |
2011-04-13T20:30:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/11/four-years-on/#comment-7705 |
| Dale, I think you're right on. Bob, if you're trying to force coded language on me I won't bite. But imagine chopped-up "McMansions" with several units full of people who get by on the margin, some of them on public assistance, and you have not just the future of many suburbs - you have the today of some suburbs in places like Los Angeles. Read the Brookings report - it's very interesting. Anna, common sense always wins out in the long run, much like market forces do. Of course, in the long run, we're all dead. :-) |
2011-04-13T20:27:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/13/suburbanization-of-poverty/#comment-7704 |
| Thanks again, everyone. We've entered the Spring "Offline" season so hit are going to track down a bit from here. I may have to do something a bit more dramatic to keep 'em coming. :-) | 2011-04-12T20:28:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/11/four-years-on/#comment-7681 |
| Thank you, everyone! Jim, perhaps I should make something like the writing guide as a guide to antique music. That's not a bad idea. As for the rest of it, I think that it might be time to put together some of the connections and historical analysis together in a book. I'd need connections of my own to make that happen, but writing a book on a topic is essential to being invited to larger media outlets. I'm thinking about it and how to get started. In the meantime, if anyone can help network I'd appreciate it. Thanks again, everyone. Have a drink or two and stay for more fun! :-) |
2011-04-11T17:27:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/11/four-years-on/#comment-7664 |
| Thanks, Russell! See, I'm not completely nuts. :-) (not really all that original, either, but hey) |
2011-04-10T03:43:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/08/armageddon-been-there-done-that/#comment-7587 |
| Dale, I think that this story is never told because at the center of it is not only questioning the Christian Bible but understanding then questioning the very strangest and scariest part of it. I think that few people who would take the time to really get into Revelation would be the kind of people who would want to fit it into history. But everything that is written is a reflection of its culture and time as far as I'm concerned. To me, this was just a really good puzzle. Outside of Revelation the rest of it is quite well know. Big hunks were fictionalized nicely by Robert Graves in I, Claudius and Claudius the God so it even made its way, in part, into popular culture for a time. Granted, we live in especially dim times so great works like this hardly register anymore. But that's just an opening for wackos like me. :-) | 2011-04-08T18:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/08/armageddon-been-there-done-that/#comment-7581 |
| Jan & Jim - yes, I am trying to make a point. This piece is about a time when Rome should have fallen - but didn't. The reasons were many, but two stand out - no one was there to take its place, and the time bought by that enabled new blood to come in and restore what made Rome great in the first place. It was both a revolution and a very conservative action at the same time. It saved the Empire. I've been thinking about this for a long, long time. I do think it's a great story for many reasons, not the least of which is the incredible turning point in world history that this represents. History is full of people acting more or less as any of us do. People are people - but cultures are cultures. The same emotions and needs unwind in different ways but for largely the same reasons. This does relate to the recent piece on how the Confederacy honestly though Civil War was in their best interest. What's my point? A step back from the insane (and largely irrelevant) "politics" that dominates our day gives us all a fresh perspective. We can make it through these times, even though many think we're at some kind of endtime one way or another. They are simply wrong - history does not produce endtimes, it produces a series of inflections that play out according to the strength of the people who get through them. |
2011-04-08T16:57:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/08/armageddon-been-there-done-that/#comment-7578 |
| Ron, I'll file that under "How do they figure this stuff anyways?" The official inflation rate has always been questionable, especially when you think about things like health care that greatly exceed it. And I'm not really sure where we are on housing these days - I know it did rise in price faster than inflation, but I have no idea how much has been given back in the last few years (or will be in the next few) - but it's not good, I'm sure. One thing you didn't think of - the big increase in household income that came in the 80s had a lot to do with women entering the workforce: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/state-of-jobs/ (although in the 1970s, when that phenom started, households barely kept even). So a similar amount of pay for more people working? Not good. |
2011-04-07T19:40:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/06/better-off/#comment-7555 |
| Thanks, everyone. Jim, you raise an interesting point - a truly stable society will not have a rising real income. However, we do have those productivity gains, so we can expect rising income just from that. There's a difference between "average" or "mean" and the "median" presented here, but that's another story altogether. Dan, I'll check out MinnPost. I do hope that retirement for 60 year olds or so catches on - I do think that I was the first to present that idea. |
2011-04-07T00:45:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/06/better-off/#comment-7547 |
| Alan, I do not know what happened - must be technical. It wasn't caught in my spam filter, which sometimes happens. Sorry about that - please try again, I do appreciate what you've added to Barataria! I do not have a comment policy posted, but I leave up absolutely everything that is not caught by the spam filter as long as I have no proof that someone is posting anonymously. The only comments I have ever deleted were either clear spam that got through (honestly, I am not interested in buying a shed!) or comments left by someone whose e-mail address could not be verified (and I rarely check). | 2011-04-06T16:34:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/#comment-7542 |
| Dan, it's all a matter of selfishness. Once people honestly believe that everyone else is bringing you down, I think it's hard to stop until one day you're launching cannonballs at Fort Sumter. Or something like that. But yes, I agree with you. |
2011-04-06T02:56:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/04/civil-war-150-years-on/#comment-7519 |
| Dale: It's not exactly the same, but I hope everyone can feel the roots of today's arguments in what was put forward 150 years ago. The South honestly thought they'd be better off on their own because they were putting so much money into the Federal government. They were very wrong, of course. The way forward was Union and it is what made a great nation - not a desperate attempt to hold onto what people thought was their own. | 2011-04-04T17:57:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/04/civil-war-150-years-on/#comment-7506 |
| History doesn't repeat, but it has a mad rhyme like a free-form rapper. That is proof enough that we are, in fact, one people with a shared culture and heritage. We'd do much better if we remembered that first. Thanks, Anna. One note - the President used to be inaugurated on March 4th - it was changed in the 1930s. Didn't want to get into it in a piece that was long to start with. |
2011-04-04T14:56:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/04/civil-war-150-years-on/#comment-7503 |
| jason, excellent point. However, we've been doing things badly since ... well, we haven't actually declared War since WWII. This much power in the hands of one person is a dangerous thing, no matter who has it. I do think we're doing the right thing this time ... but the next? | 2011-04-03T18:51:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/28/obama-doctrine/#comment-7494 |
| Oh, Bugs himself sang that corny ol' song, not Michigan J. Frog. I'm pretty sure I remember it in Bugs' voice. | 2011-04-01T17:38:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/01/april-fools-day/#comment-7491 |
| I updated this to include a pic of Tony per request by twitter. Yes, this has been a long crappy Winter. It's not over yet, I'm sure, but we can feel it. That's a lot for me. And Tony. |
2011-04-01T17:38:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/01/april-fools-day/#comment-7490 |
| Interesting where you all have steered this. I was thinking more about fault tolerant public policies in terms of running government, but this has gone towards policies that promote a fault tolerant economy / society. This, to me, is what real politics is all about! Steering it to entrepreneurship is interesting - not exactly the same as fault tolerance, but they do seem to be related. An economy that encourages innovation will be more dynamic and likely much closer to some kind of equilibrium than a centrally planned one (speaking as an American, I am!). What hasn't sunk in is how the old industrial model that so many things still operate under, with big companies and so on, is not all that much different from a centrally planned economy. There is a LOT here, and you are all on the right track. There is a role for government in creating the playing field that makes a stronger economy and society. It's the difference between Capitalism and Marketism that I've written about long ago. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/13/marketism/ We have to have a debate like this publicly and stop the crap that people usually drone on about. The nonsense I usually hear is just killing us. Why aren't there more people like you all in legacy media, etc? |
2011-03-31T16:47:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/#comment-7480 |
| I think that a strong social safety net and personal responsibility are not necessarily in opposition to each other - and the extent that they are is probably a kind of failure (or one waiting to happen). These can work very well in some nations for various reasons that are worth getting to know, IMHO. | 2011-03-30T21:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/#comment-7476 |
| Dale, that's a very good point. The more I think about this the more I realize that social and engineered systems are remarkably similar when it comes to fault tolerance - which isn't obvious at first, IMHO. Another thing I didn't write about is how technical indicators are useful in stock markets to detect when there is a "breakout" or unusual situation. That alerts the market to respond, and is a kind of fault tolerance for everyday small changes which prevents stress from building up over the long haul. It makes for a more liquid market and smoother trading overall. That principle probably can be applied pretty easily to things like public policy, at least when there is a budget involved. I'm thinking about that one. |
2011-03-30T19:19:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/#comment-7474 |
| Alan, I've decided you're right about this. As hard (and slow) as it is to follow procedures we have to have a proper check and balance in place to avoid abuses in the future. Obama himself noted that in 2003 when he opposed the Iraq War - a time when Congress actually did authorize everything, at least. Why didn't he even try to go through proper channels, especially when it's clear that he knew it was the right thing to do? I wish I knew. Once again, Obama has acted in a way that establishes a standard of maximum flexibility - so we can see what he values here. Some of that is prudent, but taking Congress out of the loop is indeed dangerous. Maybe we do have an "Obama Doctrine" after all - the anti-Doctrine. "Whatever works, just do it." That is indeed tough on democracy. |
2011-03-30T16:40:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/28/obama-doctrine/#comment-7472 |
| Alan: So is he a wise man who keeps his options open or an empty opportunist with no internal compass? I guess I accept that you could be right, but if you are it would make sense for him to outline some kind of "Obama Doctrine" tonight just to deflect criticism. I hope it doesn't come to something that fake, however. Anna: I just don't know how anyone can say when it will make sense to intervene until events unfold. I'm pretty sure we can see unrest coming so it might be good to make some kind of plans - but I don't think we can possibly be rigid about it. Should we intervene in, say, Syria just because they are doing the same horrible things that happened in Libya? Offhand I do think we should - but only if the Arab League has our back and we don't look like we're colonizing the place. As bad as many of these dictators are it can get worse if we aren't careful. | 2011-03-28T17:07:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/28/obama-doctrine/#comment-7445 |
| Dale, I think "Moslem Brotherhood" is one of those things that was talked about too much with respect to Egypt but not nearly enough when it comes to Libya. Funny how everything changed once it was Ghaddafi that was on the line. I think the general idea is that it can't be any worse than a loon dictator running a kleptocracy, but ... it could be ... | 2011-03-28T15:32:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/28/obama-doctrine/#comment-7442 |
| Talking this over with my daughter (it's Spring Break!) we came up with two other really good ideas. My choice is Hans-Dietrich Genscher, the unsung hero of German Reunification: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Dietrich_Genscher (though he is far from unsung in Germany!). Kate picked an interesting figure that she would like to know more about: Joseph Stalin. Both of these choices are good for a movie in that they tie into historical events of great importance that are known in the main but not in a ton of detail. It's sort of like the burning of Atlanta anchoring "Gone with the Wind" - most historical fiction has an hook like that. |
2011-03-25T19:37:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/25/biography/#comment-7421 |
| Dale, that is an excellent choice! I think that just 20 years ago everyone assumed they knew everything about Ford, but at this point we could start very fresh and re-introduce him to a new generation. He was impressed by Nazis early on, yes, but that's not surprising since Ford was a believer in industrial organization to do all kinds of great works - early on the Nazis appeared to be more about that than conquest (at least to people who were eager to look the other way at the persecution of Jews and others). But Ford was an amazing person. A big sponsor of Chemurgy and George Washington Carver's work (you'll have to look it up, I'm afraid!) I have never read a bio of him, either, so that might be a place to start. i'll bet there are a few. This might be a project I can take on. Thanks! |
2011-03-25T18:57:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/25/biography/#comment-7420 |
| Anna: Yes, historical drama - about a situation as much as a person. Mary Shelley is a great example of someone that has been neglected, yes! Dan: Wow, I'm glad to hear that! If you have any more details please let me know - but I'll start looking into it now. The only problem with him is that so much of his life is legend now that it's hard to know where to begin! |
2011-03-25T16:21:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/25/biography/#comment-7418 |
| Dan: Yes, you basically have to assume that everything might fail one day. That can be a lot to ask from people who are "into" setting up elegant systems of some kind or another. It's really easy to say, "Yes, but the odds of the electricity from the outside going down AND the diesel backup going down at the same time are really miniscule". And they are. But a very tiny chance of a really huge disaster is one of those real problem areas. Economically speaking, a one in a billion chance of a billion dollar disaster is worth, what, about one buck, right? But what if you're off a bit and it's more like a one in a million chance of a 100 billion dollar disaaster? Oopsie. Haven't seen Electric Dreams, I'll have to watch for it. Haven't seen a lot of PBS lately for some reason, now that I think of it. |
2011-03-23T21:49:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/23/boundary-failure/#comment-7411 |
| Anna, I think that's brilliant! It's not exactly the same thing, but they are related in many ways. A government or any other system that encourages "appliance users" either by design or just because it's damned good at what it does usually winds up encouraging everyone to test the boundaries. In the financial world I think everyone's hunt for an "edge" over everyone else will always propel this - so the success in (apparently) eliminating risk only made risky behavior more palatable - and the crash that came when the boundaries of that system's ability to keep doing its thang were crossed became inevitable. | 2011-03-23T17:42:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/23/boundary-failure/#comment-7408 |
| Dale, that's surely a lot of it! I was thinking about breaking down these kinds of failures into different classes, but I'm not going to pretend I have a comprehensive list. Failure of assumptions is probably one class, buildup of stress might be another, and random/near-random change in boundaries might be another. There may be more. What I'm much more concerned about here is how we have more "appliance users" of tech the more they develop a confidence in their various systems that is not all that well deserved. It's what James Burke talked about in Connections as the dark side of the "trigger effect" where technology spawns new tech and increases specialization constantly. |
2011-03-23T16:34:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/23/boundary-failure/#comment-7406 |
| Today there is rain, and December is starting to melt all around us. The Mississippi is starting to rise as it all runs into the city's elaborate system of grates and pipes. We know what the news will be in a few weeks. | 2011-03-22T13:27:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/21/spring/#comment-7388 |
| Thanks everyone. Dale, I'll use that a bit more & see where it goes. | 2011-03-21T18:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/21/spring/#comment-7380 |
| Yup. As difficult as change can feel at the moment, knowing it's going right can go a long way. Best to stay focused on that. Happy Srping, everyone! | 2011-03-21T15:38:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/21/spring/#comment-7376 |
| Thanks, everyone! I don't like to do these only because they take a lot more time than a usual post. And a lot of inspiration, frankly. This one was about 2 hours in the making, which is normally a lot more than I can do - but the day after St Patrick's Day the city of St Paul is still pretty shut down and I knew I wasn't going to get ahold of anyone before lunch so I went for it. I would like to do these all the time - and spend more than 2 lousy hours on them because rhyme and meter deserves more attention than mere prose. It would be a great living if some news mag was looking for something a bit out of the ordinary (hint!). | 2011-03-19T00:32:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/18/smaller-planet/#comment-7352 |
| Thanks! Unfortunately, a last minute edit didn't go through properly so people reading this on RSS will have a version where the meter is off in the first stanza. Grrr! A little license is good, but too much ... is just wrong! | 2011-03-18T15:53:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/18/smaller-planet/#comment-7347 |
| Mo, I've never been one for green beer - seems like a gimmick at best! But yes, there are those of us who are way, way too "into it" who know just who was a Prod and who was a Cat (you knew there had to be slang terms, dinnitya?). Bushmill's is Prod - but so is the Guinness family and no one ever questioned their commitment to Ireland. So it's probably best to not make too much of this. In my own family, however, it makes for a good joke over something that it's far better to joke about than take too seriously. :-) |
2011-03-17T20:00:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/16/irish-pride/#comment-7332 |
| Thanks, Jack. I'd rather we did what they do in Ireland - which is go to church mainly. But, alas, the bit party caught on over there, too. The Irish Diaspora has always had a relationship to the homeland, for better or worse. | 2011-03-16T23:22:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/16/irish-pride/#comment-7330 |
| Jim, it may be for many people. Not all of us, though. | 2011-03-16T16:04:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/16/irish-pride/#comment-7327 |
| As the crisis deepens the regular news folks are doing a better job of providing background, so my original reason for doing this piece are a bit lost. Oh well. I didn't think it would get this bad, to be honest, and I'm still hoping for the best. But yes, this may be the end of nuclear power. | 2011-03-15T16:03:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/14/nuclear-power/#comment-7312 |
| Dale, I'm not entirely sure what they are doing, which is why I left it out. However, the key is getting things as cool as they can, so my first guess is that they are pumping water from the sea directly through the heat exchanger that would normally route steam to the turbines to make power. That would remove heat from the containment vessel much quicker than normal operation. But I'm not entirely sure - this is not normal operation, after all, and I'm not trained in emergency operations of one of these by any stretch. As of right now it seems that reactor #2 is in even more serious trouble, so I think that we're looking at a very bad situation in the making. The people working in that control room are tired, hot, and getting a lifetime's dose of radiation. They are sacrificing at least their careers to get this working, and maybe their lives. We should all pray for these heroes and hope they can do it. |
2011-03-14T23:34:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/14/nuclear-power/#comment-7297 |
| Thanks Jim, Anna. I don't break news, I fix it. :-) This is an example of what I like to do best, which is fill in the gaps created by the (sometimes necessarily) breathless reporting of "breaking" news. If I can help explain difficult subjects in plain English I figure I'm doing a service. My opinion of nuclear power is not all that important, so I'm glad you couldn't find it in this li'l piece. I worked at Turkey Point Nuclear Plant (Florida Power & Light) one summer in the 1980s. As it stands now, I think that on balance I can't support the continued operation of these plants without a permanent solution to the waste. If we're not willing to deal with it as a people (a reasonable choice) then I think we shouldn't be generating it. As always, I try to be as reasonable as I can. It's rarely popular. :-) |
2011-03-14T16:11:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/14/nuclear-power/#comment-7283 |
| Exactly, Dan. We know what has to be coming and have an idea how to prepare, but we won't know how we're going to get through it until it happens. But I sure want to prepare a lot more. And build more rail systems. | 2011-03-12T14:32:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/11/like-an-earthquake/#comment-7270 |
| Jim, I agree with you - if I had waited a day before writing this I might have contrasted the response to a natural disaster vs political unrest. It is amazing how the messes that humans create on their own are so much harder for us to just get together and clean up. | 2011-03-11T20:55:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/11/like-an-earthquake/#comment-7262 |
| I think people might be on edge for a lot of reasons right now. It has to wear on us all. A brief footnote: I was thinking about an in-depth analysis of this oil crisis, which is a very strange non-shortage situation set up mostly by the futures market getting out of control. I also wanted to hit on the strange situation in China, which is clearly more delicate than we think. Then, the earthquake hit and just about everything is out the window - not that it was clear what was going on before. I agree, this has to put people on edge. |
2011-03-11T17:33:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/11/like-an-earthquake/#comment-7253 |
| Youse guys ... :-) | 2011-03-10T17:59:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/09/gotcha/#comment-7238 |
| Jack, that's cynical even by my standards :-) | 2011-03-09T19:57:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/09/gotcha/#comment-7221 |
| Jim, I think you're right that what sells will always win out. Here's hoping this get s a bit boring in time. Anna, I think we agree completely. I'd like to think that if someone caught me by surprise I'd react appropriately, but you never know until it happens. |
2011-03-09T19:50:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/09/gotcha/#comment-7219 |
| Thanks everyone. Jim, Jack, I'll think about that. I have no idea how I got into it, but I was pretty young. Just happened somehow. :-) |
2011-03-08T23:17:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/07/crackle-and-spark/#comment-7210 |
| Anna, see what Gini had to say (thanks!). Facebook does not have my city of birth or the names of my parents (esp mother's maiden name!). They don't have anything more than a phone book would have. Granted, they are gathering info on what I might click on while there, revealing my interests, but that may not be a huge problem. Then again, the yahoo! email account I've been loyal to for 20 years was just over-run with spam and had to be abandoned - and that's the one facebook knows about, so there is a chance that they are related. I'll call it coincidence for now, but I think just being super careful with especially sensitive things is good enough. I do worry that they are feeding spammers with email addys and I'll let you know if I find out that's the case. Dale, it's not all a scam - a well written article should have the keywords present and I don't think that's a big deal. But it can easily be over-stated and often is. That's why google is changing their system to stay ahead - sort of like constantly updating the rulebook for a sport to stay ahead of people who push things as hard as they can. In search engines and in sports there is never any real substitute for solid fundamentals, tho! |
2011-03-04T20:39:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/04/beware-big-net/#comment-7172 |
| Jim, it's not anything worth worrying about too much as a user. I wanted to write a fairly mainstream piece about it because, strangely, big media has yet to really take this one on. When they do, they often get bogged down on the word "algorithm" and feel they have to explain it - I just punted that out and said "system". People make this way more complicated than it should be - in the media, as users, and as site promoters. I say it far too often for my taste but apparently it has to be said again - "Write for people, edit for SEO". I can add, "and be done with it!" |
2011-03-04T16:44:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/04/beware-big-net/#comment-7168 |
| Simple things like central heat and indoor plumbing make all the difference. Stuff like an iPad doesn't even come close! :-) | 2011-03-03T19:20:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/02/climate/#comment-7159 |
| Thanks. It's been a tough few weeks with the up and down, but it's what we have to expect. | 2011-03-02T20:15:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/02/climate/#comment-7155 |
| Thanks, Gini! I think we can laugh at them, but we should never repeat their strange "talking points" verbatim - unless it's a punchline. | 2011-03-01T19:56:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/25/the-war-on-reality/#comment-7148 |
| Mary, thanks! tell all your friends. :-) Bob, I know Buchanan well and I find it fascinating how we agree on a few points, this especially. I think if we did turn inward and take care of ourselves better we'd fight like all heck, but for now we have something to talk about! |
2011-03-01T19:56:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/28/post-imperial/#comment-7147 |
| Jack, that is an easier way to put it. I guess I got a bit carried away thinking about the kind of change we're in and why people are so upset about it - an era is ending and it does seem like the end of the world to some people (thought it really isn't). Anna, I don't know why we dropped the ball so badly on this. The War on Terror(tm) is one thing, but we've gotten even crazier than that. If we spend twice as much as our nearest competitor, China, we'd still have an extra $460B to play with each year. Talk about tax cuts, balanced budget ... etc. Oh, and we'd owe a lot less to ... China .... talk about security! Dale, I think this is a time for tough ways of putting things. People need to be jostled out of the narrow old ways of thinking. Thinking of us as an Empire allows a lot of really useful comparisons, so as tough as that word is I do think it works well. |
2011-02-28T19:19:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/28/post-imperial/#comment-7133 |
| Lee, I disagree - jobs are jobs. By your reasoning we can't really count private sector jobs in fields like medical care. Now, whether or not they are desirable is another thing, and you might argue that a big dose of unemployment is preferable if it leads to a serious restructuring. I've certainly called for a major restructuring simply because I think it's inevitable - so the sooner we get on with it, the better. | 2011-02-27T03:30:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/23/state-of-jobs/#comment-7116 |
| Anna, sensationalism is part of it. I can't decide if the rest is either a lack of imagination or too much of it. Possibly both at the same time. Dan, I think that people do like having a bit of a challenge and not being catered to constantly, too. We don't need to have crap around everywhere, IMHO. |
2011-02-27T03:28:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/25/the-war-on-reality/#comment-7115 |
| I appreciate a comment from "the other side" because, well, I don't think there is another side (at least not that way!) Thanks! I do think there are ways we can move our economy towards better energy balance and I think that methane (natural gas) is probably the key in the short term. I wrote about it a while ago: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/methane/ | 2011-02-25T17:01:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/21/snow-daze/#comment-7103 |
| Thanks, Dale. I always say that Bachmann is a fairy - if everyone just ignored her, she'd become invisible. Unfortunately it's a bit too late for that as she's become the major flak-catcher for "their side". Sad, that. I'd still rather mostly ignore her, but if we can get a few laughs off of her apparently narcissistic tendency to believe that anything she says has to be true, maybe it'll be worth it. But we just can't take her seriously at all, not a chance. She doesn't do constituent service, sponsor bills, or anything other than open new battlefronts in the War on Reality. Very silly stuff. | 2011-02-25T16:35:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/25/the-war-on-reality/#comment-7101 |
| Dan, I'm still not sure about man-made global warming versus natural. I think that while there has been a lot of work attempting to prove the hypothesis (warming is man-made) there has been very little disproving the antithesis (warming is natural). That's what I was getting at here, but I'll save it for the comments section. I'm just not all that sure and I don't see why anyone would be. However, burning up our petroleum causes so many other problems (environmental, economic, political, etc) that it's worth looking for alternatives anyways, so I don't say a lot. | 2011-02-25T02:28:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/21/snow-daze/#comment-7080 |
| Anna, contributions were pretty slim. I think I'll just leave it where it's at for now and not talk about it too much. But I'm happy with the survey results, at least. | 2011-02-24T20:24:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/16/pledge-drive/#comment-7078 |
| I think I'll revisit some of this tomorrow. I'm pretty sick of the War on Reality that is going on out there. If Walker really needs concessions like this, he should explain why. That's all I'm asking at this point. |
2011-02-24T20:23:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/18/consensus/#comment-7077 |
| Anna, I really don't know. I think we are looking the first potential flood that isolates the new Upper Landing, however. It's really bad - unless we get lucky in March. | 2011-02-24T20:21:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/21/snow-daze/#comment-7076 |
| Jim, I don't think it will add up to a million jobs at the state and local level - but it could. I know that number has been tossed around, and it works out to 20k per state. It's possible, but I think that's high - and it won't be until the end of the year for some of them. Dale, I hope that's what the bottom looks like! But it's sure not the "V" shape you get from a typical recession. The loss during the supposed "recovery" in 2002-3 shows that in this kind of economy I don't think anything is really "typical" - events like this are a bit rare through history. That's prolly what has Bernanke so cautious. |
2011-02-24T20:20:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/23/state-of-jobs/#comment-7075 |
| Yes, Anna, you caught me. There is a lot more to this than simply counting jobs. The big gain in participation from 1970-1990 has a lot to do with women entering the workforce in large numbers, but that's probably not the whole story. More to the point, the increases in productivity per worker have to factor into this somehow. On top of it, we see growing income disparity in the same period. It's a lot to absorb and I don't want to make one feature on a graph into way too much without thinking it through a bit. But this is one helluva feature, ain't it? I'm not through contemplating the 1970s, if that's what you're getting at. :-) |
2011-02-23T17:13:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/23/state-of-jobs/#comment-7066 |
| We always have something to complain about out here where the prairie meets the hardwood forests. We have nothing to complain about when it comes to our own ability to deal with it. Yes, people seem to forget how to drive, and yes, the plows are never as fast as we'd like. But we have to deal with it. This is the climate that tries our souls. Eventually, it says a lot about who you are in a dazzling show, don't tell, kind of way. I like that. | 2011-02-22T01:25:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/21/snow-daze/#comment-7048 |
| I don't know who can predict the next 10 years all well, but we can be sure that it will be slower than we've seen in the past. I'm a big fan of bounded chaos as methodology, and we can be sure that the bounds will be lower than we expect. We'll see. In the meantime, the survey sez I should be writing less politics. :-) |
2011-02-21T00:21:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/18/consensus/#comment-7032 |
| Dan, it's about the same here - in percent and the effort put into it. We do have to start thinking about K-12 and what it costs. That's why I did my piece on becoming a teacher along with Eric Austin - I think we need to talk about this issue at great length, from the bottom up. I'm also a big supporter of Charter Schools. I doubt any one thing will solve the situation, but I really do want to talk about it. Yes, the Democrats haven't done their job to prevent this mess, either. Ron, you raise some points I glossed over when reading about this, too. I saw those mentioned in the Milwaukee Journal (a great paper!) and just kept reading. They have to plug the budget gap, that's a given. The rest should be put up for a lot more engagement. There's a fine line between quick action (which is needed in so many areas!) and the need for consensus. As I said earlier, putting things off without discussion is making emergencies that are forcing things to go down very badly: No Decision, Big Decision Dan and Ron, I hope you can see this post as the book-end of that last one. Our hands are being forced and bad decisions are being made quickly. I think you are both right on here. | 2011-02-18T19:07:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/18/consensus/#comment-7017 |
| Thank again, everyone. Over 100 votes in the survey and you've made it pretty clear - more history and social commentary, along with economics - no more social media and writing. I'll throw in a little urban life because I like those stories, but only when I have a good point. :-) I didn't raise much money so far, but I wasn't sure what I'd get. MPR says that their conversion is around 7%, so I would expect Barataria to be even lower. I could still use a little help here, so I appreciate whatever you think I'm worth. Thanks again! You are all the reason I write at all! |
2011-02-18T18:32:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/16/pledge-drive/#comment-7015 |
| I think it's vital for us to understand that Unity is critical to our system as we know it. The rhetoric being employed by the Blogging Brigade is usually all about being "right", not about moving forward. The result is that we haven't been able to move anything forward in a long time. So our crisis deepens. We've been there before. My argument is a very conservative one on purpose. I don't see how anyone can call themselves a "conservative" and not take the long view. But, once again, our tradition is one of Progress - meaning that no matter how far we look back we see the great figures of our history looking us squarely in the eyes. What are we going to do, today? Our system is designed to fail toward inaction when the commitment to Consensus breaks down. The result has always spilled into the streets. There is no surprise here, none at all. This has to happen. Let's do it up right and make it work. |
2011-02-18T16:55:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/18/consensus/#comment-7007 |
| Ron, I think you hit the nail on the head as to where the real reform has to come. I'm going to think about this some more. There has been a lot of work in shortening supply chains for obvious reasons, and that does look like a pullback from globalism - but it's part of finding a balance. I've talked a lot about overhead per employee, focusing on things we can quantify like bennies, taxes, etc. But every HR department is part of that overhead - and, really, so is every supervisor and manager. Direct Labor can only be cut so far before you affect quality - but what can be done about Indirect Labor? It has to be the next focus, I agree. Excellent point. |
2011-02-18T01:42:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/09/global-retreat/#comment-6985 |
| Thank you everyone. I may post another story from my childhood later. There are many. | 2011-02-18T01:38:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/11/lift-every-voice-and-sing/#comment-6984 |
| Thanks everyone! I know the two people who called me a "blowhard", so I won't take it personally ... well, not too much. :-) Still surprised that the social/history is coming out on top. Also amused that social media is a stinker, especially since that's what gets re-tweeted the most. Clearly, my readers are not people who are the "norm" on social media sites. Hardly surprising, but it makes the success of Barataria all the more interesting. Thank you all again .... not sure what I'll post tomorrow, but I think I want to more or less move on and see what I come up with. |
2011-02-18T01:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/16/pledge-drive/#comment-6983 |
| Ron, I'm all in favor of innovation. A lot of people say that we shouldn't experiment on kids, but we do every day by insisting that they all do the same thing! I would hope it's obvious by now that everyone learns in a different way and that "Multiple Intelligences" is a big "Duh". So you can imagine I had a lot of problems when I first heard that St Paul wants to "standardize curriculum". I've been talking with people about what that means and so far I'm happy that it means that they won't let schools leave out whole subject areas and will recommend a standard practice but not enforce it. I think we have to hold them to it, which is to say that there will never be a substitute for active engagement. But, for now, I support what they are talking about. |
2011-02-16T23:13:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/14/saint-pauls-community-school-plan/#comment-6970 |
| Off to a slow start, but we'll see how it goes during the day. I'm not sure I could write about economics alone - it seems to me that the idea of a Free Market(tm) is so central to our culture that it winds up being a part of everything! | 2011-02-16T16:41:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/16/pledge-drive/#comment-6965 |
| Anna, a lot of my readers are non-Saintly-City. :-) I also think this hasn't been discussed nearly as much as it should be, so this may be the first time many people have seen it. | 2011-02-15T21:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/14/saint-pauls-community-school-plan/#comment-6946 |
| Jim, the plan itself is vast and confusing. The net result at the end is a simpler system that will be much easier to understand. That part of this plan is really good, IMHO. | 2011-02-14T17:31:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/14/saint-pauls-community-school-plan/#comment-6933 |
| Thanks. I don't think anyone who ever thought about it "got" segregation, whether they were North or South. There's a link to a story I did on Old McMullen, the guy who taught me about the history of Perrine and how things got to be The Way They Are. He never understood it all, either. I treasure that oldtime Florida honesty and try to do my best to tell these stories straight up. But I still love this song. It says far more to me than anything else. |
2011-02-11T17:37:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/11/lift-every-voice-and-sing/#comment-6876 |
| I think some people just like to teach - it invigorates them. That's part of my thinking at this point, since I'm alone a bit too much as a writer. | 2011-02-11T04:33:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6865 |
| Yes, Dan, many companies are trying to shorten the supply chains for the reasons I stated. That's part of what I think will continue to happen in Brasil - where they make a LOT of aluminum thanks to their development of electricity. You see where I'm going with this? This is what Pres. Obama means when he talks about developing basic energy industries and so on. There is a point where national policy makes a difference - and that's a lot of what Pres. Lula of Brasil. Part of what inspired this post was his statement in Senegal that "Capitalism is dead", BTW. There's a circle here. :-) |
2011-02-10T01:20:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/09/global-retreat/#comment-6850 |
| Jim - Our standard of living will drop if we give up the strong dollar - and that pretty much has to happen. So yes, there will be a problem. However, I think we can easily tighten our belts and make do with a lot less junk without really noticing a decline in the parts of our standard of living that matter most. There will probably be some whining, yes, but it may not be a huge problem. We'll see, I'm sure. Anna - I think I will look into co-ops more. The changes that are sweeping over everyone do seem to demand a lot more control at all levels, and that's one way people can band together outside of government / corporations and other big institutions that have their own agendas. |
2011-02-09T17:18:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/09/global-retreat/#comment-6840 |
| I wasn't so sure about the Miss Evelyn one, it had a "Walter Mitty" feel to me (does that make me old?) The Darth one was very cute, but it was kind of a typical commercial and I didn't feel like commenting on it. But really, what would any of us do to make a car commercial that was really fresh and caught people's attention? It seem really hard to me! | 2011-02-09T03:24:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/07/superbowl-ads/#comment-6814 |
| Janine, Jack, those were both interesting - and since I like "House" I really liked that one! I think groupon is in one of those places where it can't possibly do anything right. They shoulda took the $6B and run. [ note - I will turn over Barataria for far, far less than $6B ... just in case you're interested ... ] |
2011-02-07T19:03:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/07/superbowl-ads/#comment-6792 |
| Tomorrow is the actual game. They hype will end. Can't wait! | 2011-02-06T05:24:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/28/the-pop-bowl/#comment-6737 |
| Thank you very much, Becky! | 2011-02-06T05:22:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6736 |
| Jack, that is so awesome of you! :-) | 2011-02-04T19:32:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/02/superlatives/#comment-6689 |
| Ron: I agree with you completely here. If you want to include some defined coursework as part of the certification I could see that - but I like the flexibility of doing that part online. THEN passing a test and THEN starting some kind of paid internship / mentoring / tutoring with a solid evaluation process would make sense to me. I'm really thinking through the skills that Eric raised in his post. Is a test enough to demonstrate proficiency? I've railed against the "No Child Left Behind" kind of testing for kids, so I don't think I can support it in isolation for teachers. But required classtime seems a bit silly since we do all learn in different ways at different paces. On Eric's blog one commentor (was it you, Ron?) noted that doing required coursework concurrent with the internship / apprenticeship made it much more effective. That's a real world experience that's worth noting, IMHO. |
2011-02-04T19:31:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6688 |
| Eric, I don't think we really disagree that much here (do we ever, really? :-) ) so as an experiment in sparking a lot of debate this may not be a great one. Or, perhaps, it might be optimal since we are clearly reaching some concensus ... we'll see. But I really appreciate what you had to say and think it helps us move something constructive forward to have all the potential downside listed out thoroughly. I especially like how you listed "this is what needs to be done" and, ideally, we can git 'er done. That's what good legislation and policy is all about! All the readers here should see what Eric has to say (link above). |
2011-02-04T18:26:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6687 |
| Jack, I just don't want to go there right now. :-) I have to say as a footnote that I was surprised how the bill SF40 didn't seem that awful to me when I read it. It may be a bit too loose, and now that I've read Eric Austin's post I can see his point very clearly. But I do think there's a way to do this and open up new opportunities for everyone. |
2011-02-04T17:00:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6682 |
| davincidad: I think you are right, but that attitude has permeated the bureaucracy as well - and they have no excuse at all. I don't know what to make of any of it. Jim: It's a theory at this point, but what I see is that when poltiicos want to make something happen they have to make it into a big deal first. That's what bothers me. I think that is very true. |
2011-02-04T02:45:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-6664 |
| I was going to include this in the text, but it was a bit too heavy. So I'll put it in the comments as a footnote - why superlatives are a problem: Your Daily Dose of Tao - Tao Te Ching Chapter 2, translated by Derek Lin http://www.taoism.net/ttc/complete.htm When the world knows beauty as beauty, ugliness arises When it knows good as good, evil arises Thus being and non-being produce each other Difficult and easy bring about each other Long and short reveal each other High and low support each other Music and voice harmonize each other Front and back follow each other Therefore the sages: Manage the work of detached actions Conduct the teaching of no words They work with myriad things but do not control They create but do not possess They act but do not presume They succeed but do not dwell on success. It is because they do not dwell on success That it never goes away |
2011-02-02T22:56:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/02/superlatives/#comment-6650 |
| Arrgh! I've been caught! Well, "plain" is more of a bad habit than a real superlative. But ... yeah, it counts. :-) |
2011-02-02T20:46:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/02/superlatives/#comment-6647 |
| Anna: I thought I did, too, but I can't find it. Maybe later when I have more time to look. That is a good example I thought of to include here! Dale: That one is plain silly! I think it counts. Janine: Yes, that also doesn't make any sense. Why not say you were disappointed or upset rather than go for the physical routine? Good examples, thanks! |
2011-02-02T20:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/02/superlatives/#comment-6645 |
| I agree, Charlie. But it's damned hard to make the case for government when things have been let go this long and there are clear signs that it's just not working anymore. Once again, I've been caught complaining without making clear and distinct proposals. Sorry about that. I think that this needs to be said, especially on the "left". We have a real problem making the case that we are, as Anna put it, getting our money's worth. |
2011-02-01T01:45:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-6589 |
| Dale, that's the comment of the day by far. You're right, this is all one big (and sick) phenom - a series of symptoms produced by a very sick society. Thing is that Democrats have to get past this if we are going to make the case that government is useful. The only alternative I can think of is to retreat back to the most obvious essential services and use the most vulnerable as our front lines - which is about what we are doing now. The way to reverse this, IMHO, is dramatic leadership and a strong commitment to empower state employees to make decisions. There's more to it than that, of course, but it has to start there. But you are right that this is more evidence that we've let the "right" win the basic argument. I also think it shows. |
2011-01-31T23:30:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-6584 |
| Jack, none of us like to make decisions. Times are tough, and the snow is piling up. :-) Anna, thanks! There was something else I dd on a similar topic, but I can't find it. I think there's a general theme here. |
2011-01-31T18:36:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-6578 |
| Jim, it's too hard to dig out just what's going on in Minnesota. I can do it, but it will take time I just don't have right now. I'm thinking of another Minnesota angle, however. A very unpleasant one. |
2011-01-31T00:49:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/24/public-investment/#comment-6543 |
| Good to see you, too, Ian - we'll be around! | 2011-01-31T00:48:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/26/tweetup/#comment-6542 |
| I watch it for the game - hate the ads! | 2011-01-31T00:47:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/28/the-pop-bowl/#comment-6541 |
| Thanks, everyone! I do like Division / Conference loyalty. I'm an AFC guy at heart (go 'phins!) so it's only natural I'd be for the Steelers. |
2011-01-28T18:01:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/28/the-pop-bowl/#comment-6479 |
| Thank you all, these are fun events just to get to know people! | 2011-01-26T18:52:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/26/tweetup/#comment-6433 |
| Ah, you caught me complaining without offering a proposal! Not good! :-) You are right that health care is a big problem, especially when you are talking about expenditures that involve a lot of people. We're solving some of it, but not nearly fast enough or with the radical change (I think) it deserves. What got my attention is that debt is rising faster than those expenditures, however, which may mean deficit spending - but may not. I'm not entirely sure what the gap is yet, but the trends are just not looking good. I'll look after it some more. This was surprising enough to me that I thought it deserved a post on its own, but I'll get back to it. Janine, you're right that this is more evidence that the crisis has been a long time in the making. I should summarize all of the evidence in one place. |
2011-01-24T17:08:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/24/public-investment/#comment-6392 |
| I do think it's funny how much I fit the Sagitarius (sp?) profile, though I have been joking about Ophiuchus for years. Could there actually be something in these horoscopes? How about this - people born in the Winter might have a bit of an attitude. So, Jack, go ahead and be all Leo about it, there may be something to it. There might be another story hidden in there that's worth telling later on! |
2011-01-22T15:25:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/21/heavenly-conflict/#comment-6357 |
| I think the story is what counts! :-) Retro is a good idea. It doesn't get more retro than going back 2,500 years! Whoo-Hoo! |
2011-01-21T23:10:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/21/heavenly-conflict/#comment-6346 |
| It's accurate, just a bit twisted to include everything. Well, nearly everything, I left out Emperor Vespasian and the book of Revelation. :-) I think the bottom line is that any time someone tell you a clean, sensible "history" they are probably relating a sanitized fiction. If you want a moral to this story, that's probably it. But what do I know, I was born under the sign of a snake handler. :-) |
2011-01-21T16:07:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/21/heavenly-conflict/#comment-6341 |
| Dan, I'm sure that's true. We have been infatuated with keeping banks full of money (that they don't lend out) and tax cuts, neither of which seems to generate jobs all that efficiently. Was just in a discussion on twitter with Jack, and I think that there has to be some way the government can do *some* good, even if it's limited and/or only for dire emergencies (which, as you know, I tend to think this is). I mentioned the "multiplier effect" here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/09/29/what-happened/ That's the old idea that every $1.00 the government spends generates $1.50 in GDP. The reason this isn't worth talking about too much is that it's pretty clear that, based on what we've seen, the multiplier isn't 1.5X but about zero. But ... that may only be true because we though we could spend money on anything and have the same multiplier, but that seems like a pretty lazy assumption to make. I'll stay on it. The two ideas I have so far are buying off the Boomers and reducing employee overhead. I'll bet there are more, possibly even a CCC or WPA type project (though times may have changed on those). Anyone else have any ideas? | 2011-01-19T22:39:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/19/economic-update/#comment-6271 |
| I'll let you know if I see any more panic, you can be sure of that. I can't help but wonder about the latest tax cut / stimulus, but I think it's the last we'll see for a bit. I should do an update on the Quantitative Easing, because it hasn't worked out as planned. I thought it would help at least some, but it may have actually made things worse. |
2011-01-19T18:06:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/19/economic-update/#comment-6269 |
| Dan, I wasn't too sure about him at the time, but it's interesting to look back and see that many of the arguments made by Dukkakis - as well as Bob Kerry, Paul Tsongas, and Paul Simon - were quite accurate over the long haul. It's important to me that many Democrats, including Pelosi and Reid, are to this day much less leaders of the "Party of the People" and much more like managers - a change that also, I think, dates to that time. There's a lot more to this than I've written about so far, but I do think that Reagan's policies - though right for stagflation - led us pretty directly to the Depression we're in now. Perhaps the best lesson is "To everything there is a season". Oh, and my attitude towards Latin America is deeply influenced by what I learned in the 70s and 80s - but I always knew that if they could get their act together they would assume their role on the world stage quickly. Few thought they could get their act together, but I met far too many intelligent and passionate people to be that cynical. |
2011-01-14T20:55:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/14/i-still-like-mike/#comment-6181 |
| Anna, this was what I was getting at lat time, but I didn't realize it until the rest of you helped me get there. It was a great collaboration! The piece I think you are referring to is called "Economic Theory" and it was a more philosophical take on the same thing. The Austrian School, as they like to be known now (not Supply-Siders!) seems to regard their assertion that government is always a drag on the economy as a "Duh", something above reproach - a ridiculous and arrogant assertion on the face of it. We have data, we can see what happened. It's not good at all. | 2011-01-14T16:41:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/14/i-still-like-mike/#comment-6175 |
| You guys are the best! I'm so lucky to have a group like this to chat with. It's clear to me that all of you understood what I was thinking about without my even saying all that well. There are several things going on here, and you'll see one of them on Friday. I have to thank you for helping me to clarify what I was trying to get at. Oh, and yes, it was Craig Hardwick in my homeroom for 9th grade, not oneswellfoop. :-) Anyone who knows me in person has heard a few stories about that Craig! :-) | 2011-01-13T19:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/12/the-70s/#comment-6148 |
| Dale, Jack, I'm sure my parents would say they were just getting by, too. I was a little rat and I don't remember a ton, but I do remember a lot of complaining about inflation and so on. Wendell, I agree that there was something in there that we were supposed to learn but didn't. I referred to "The 70s" only because I'm looking for a way to tie together a lot of things that happened at the same time which seem to add up to One Big Thing but on the face of them have nothing in common. Yes, not learning the right lesson from them has given us 30 years of wallowing - and, to be honest, I think may be the real root of the Depression we're in now. |
2011-01-12T20:17:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/12/the-70s/#comment-6126 |
| By way of a prologue ... Thank you all for your comments. I'm re-thinking a bit my original harsh feelings. Most of you know that I have strong feelings about life and death in the middle of the streets and will forgive me for getting a shade emotional about these sorts of things. Everyone I've ever known who has experienced violence up close and personal has a very different attitude towards it than what is shown in our popular culture (and what seeps into our political rhetoric). "The first rule of the Fight Club is that you don't talk about the Fight Club." Yet how many people staring at the screen stopped to realize that the actors they were watching were talking about the Fight Club? That's the disconnect between fantasy and reality at the heart this problem. Our culture lives vicariously through the fantasies of those who are the best at articulating being tough guys - not those who have proven themselves in some way. And so we paint targets on Congressional Districts and think nothing of it. We just don't live in a world where the white painted lines inside a rifle scope have any real meaning because we aren't a people who are used to actually pulling the trigger. We fantasize about it instead. If that's what we fantasize about our sense of reality is really twisted. And that's what our politics comes from - as long as we tolerate this BS. |
2011-01-12T02:32:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/10/political-violence/#comment-6096 |
| Dan, have you a link? I couldn't find it (and I thought I'd sound British, given the nature of the publication). I have to start taking credit for some of this stuff if I'm going to make some $$$. Thanks! :-) |
2011-01-11T23:07:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/10/political-violence/#comment-6092 |
| It's a bit much, but he is a great hero of mine. A lot to add, especially to a student of Machiavelli. And no matter what some people say, Alinsky is NOT a friend to Washington, regardless of who appears to have power. |
2011-01-10T22:42:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/10/rules-for-radicals/#comment-6074 |
| Anna, let's do our best to not be angry. I think sad is pretty reasonable, but I'd like all of this to tone down dramatically. I'm especially upset by the fake tough-guy talk because it's clearly more about what's fashionable and hip than anything remotely real, but I don't think all the heated stuff is not doing us any good. You and I both know that nearly everyone, left and right and however you want to divide us, thinks Washingtoon is more of a problem than a solution right now. Nearly everyone I know is looking to solve problems at a more activist level, state and local. The pretenders who want to talk tough would have a lot more friends - and get a lot more done - if they cut out the pop-culture BS and acted like what Dale rightly calls "real conservatives". Until then, they are just idiots and tools. I say we call the pretenders what they are. |
2011-01-10T17:20:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/10/political-violence/#comment-6052 |
| Dan, you're right that it's very hard to tell any of this until years later. I like the idea of a "half life" type decay of vehicles - that does sound about right to me. :-) Anna, I'm not always negative! I'm one of the biggest optimists out there, in fact, because I think that if we were honest about what's happening we could fix it pretty easily. So there! :-) |
2011-01-07T22:25:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/07/gasoline-consumption-drops/#comment-5971 |
| This piece got a bit lost in the holidays, which I think is a shame. The problems that are identified in this little tidbit of news are breathtaking in many ways, but it was successfully buried. Unemployment is a nearly permanent condition now, and that has to be solved for us to move on to the new economy. When I see valuations like $6B for Groupon (turned down!) and $50B for Basefook (Facebook) I think we haven't learned a damned thing. |
2011-01-06T15:22:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/29/overnight-wonder/#comment-5939 |
| Dale, the bottom line is that the sooner the Baby Boomers move out of our economy the sooner we'll find out just how good the next generation is. We need to make room for them, I'm sure of that much. | 2011-01-06T15:19:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/31/2010-meh/#comment-5938 |
| Dan, that's a bit of a challenge! I'm not sure how to work out capital gains tax, to be honest. I do favor a very flat tax with few write-offs generally, but with cap gains you're looking at what is defined as "income" to feed into that system. I'd have to crunch a lot of numbers. Anna, I didn't want to get specific with China because there are so many ways that they can stumble. It's one big bubble - but we can be sure that a centrally managed economy like theirs won't fail the same way ours did. I don't understand how their government works/doesn't-work well enough to know just how it will start to fall apart - and, for that matter, what they will tell us when it does. That's one of many reasons that I think that the "China Fever" we see so many US businesses contracting is a dangerous disease. |
2011-01-06T15:18:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/03/2011-predictions/#comment-5937 |
| You all raise excellent points -but you're also all claiming that you knew we'd regret it at the time. :-) I was going to say that openly, but I thought that there was no reason for anyone to believe me. However, I do know that many of the people I knew (and like to hang with) had the same opinion, so I'll believe you all. Still, where were we back in the day, eh? :-) Why do we get surprised at budget crises that occur at nearly regular intervals? I don't know. It's worth noting that it's been 20 years since our last DFL gov, Rudy Perpich, and he was the one that created the "Rainy Day Fund". Well, there's been a lot of precipitation lately, hasn't there? |
2011-01-06T15:14:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/05/jesse-checks/#comment-5936 |
| Call me old fashioned, but I had to have 10 and I was looking at 9 - hence the weather prediction. But I need a few gimmees, yes? I had some inside info on the foreclosure problem coming along. In many ways, it's just like the call I made on European sovereign debt a few months before it happened: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/ Sometimes, you can just see these things coming if you read up on it a lot. |
2011-01-03T16:41:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/03/2011-predictions/#comment-5869 |
| Dan, Anna: I set it up wrong if you see this as a pull between the industrial cycles and demographics - I think they are closely related, to be honest. I'm not sure what the relationship is at this point but I do think that the demographics are a big part of what we're seeing no matter what. Dan, you always raise good points. MPR is the best place, far and away, for any discussion of these issues. I missed the one where the problem for young people was raised, but to me that's issue #1 as we move forward. A lot of "experts" have said that this is a decades-long problem that we'll have, so I don't want to hear about short-term fixes. To me, the only solution has to be a generational change-over in the workforce - and the sooner we get that, the better. That's why I was promoting the one-time buy-in to social security as an alternative to unemployment benefits. Reducing the overhead per employee remains my top choice to fix the employment problem, but we can't underestimate the power of the demographics we're up against. I'm glad you heard a good discussion of it - but I really do want more! I won't come up with all the answers but I'm sure if we focus on it we all, together, can come up with something. |
2010-12-31T19:39:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/31/2010-meh/#comment-5812 |
| Dale, that's an excellent way to look at this revelation. If the tab triples every time we ask how big it is we have to wonder when we will get the whole answer. Here's another way to look at this - at a total of $13.7 Trillion (that we know of) the total emergency/stimulus/etc was about $100,000 for every household in the US. |
2010-12-29T16:40:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/29/overnight-wonder/#comment-5707 |
| I agree that it's the message and the values that make it special - nothing preachy, but deeply felt. And I love the problem solving, even if he does bluster over it at "90 miles an hour and then look at you as though you've just dribbled on yourself". :-) | 2010-12-27T17:01:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/27/doctor-who/#comment-5633 |
| That is a great video, and these are clearly very intelligent animals. Since they are better at problem solving than an average Congressperson perhaps we should consider higher office - or some kind of public post. :-) | 2010-12-22T18:06:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/22/smart-birds/#comment-5361 |
| [ My apologies to everyone, but I had to delete some comments. It wasn't the real lack of humor in them or the bizarre attempt at personal attacks that did it, either. The person in question did not provide a real e-mail address so they have to be regarded as a spammer. All I know is that they came via a server in Ypsilanti, Michigan. I'm terribly sorry as I haven't deleted a comment in a long time, but I won't just let people post completely anonymously. Thanks. ] | 2010-12-22T14:36:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/20/winter-solstice-2/#comment-5349 |
| John, I agree that this Depression started in 2001 - and that we have to start looking at that period to understand the big picture. I am quite sure that when historians look back on this period this Managed Depression will be called something like that and given a 2001 start date. The purpose of this piece was to help all of us interpret the noise of daily nooze as it flies past us. Rather limited value in that no matter what, eh? Thank you for pointing out that it is the same in the UK. I am not as familiar with your government websites so I am not the one to pull the statistics and graphs for you - but it makes sense that since we all went through the same bubble, more or less, we are living the same story. |
2010-12-19T17:32:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/07/job-creation/#comment-4869 |
| John: Thanks for stopping by with your view - you're asking a very good question. I'm attempting to relate two things that are often viewed as very separate. GDP figures are a measure of how the rich get richer and employment figures are a measure of how the poor get by. I've given up on getting our material-obsessed culture to simply focus on employment, as you suggest, 3even though it is at least as important as GDP. Tying the two together it about as good as I feel we can hope for. I do think that the severity of this Depression is changing that, if slowly. I think that you are quite right to say that employment is what matters - how everyone can contribute to the world. That is gradually becoming better understood, too. One can hope. |
2010-12-19T17:17:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4867 |
| Thanks for the report - sound a bit trippy for me to think of. I'm clearly more emotional about this than my neighbors, which is a bit strange but I'll get over it. |
2010-12-18T18:44:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/17/urban-renewal/#comment-4819 |
| Thanks, everyone. | 2010-12-15T20:35:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/13/not-the-kid/#comment-4709 |
| Thanks everyone.. Winter doesn't last forever - it just seems like it. :-) |
2010-12-15T20:34:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/15/boreas-rex/#comment-4708 |
| Anna: Fox, and most teevee nooze, is a net negative. I believe that people are far better informed when they watch nothing at all because they are at least not being exposed to stupid and utterly wrong things. I got the link from the Pakistan Daily by assuming that the third world would see this as a plant and following that line of reasoning. There are other links in Egypt and the Gulf, but I liked this one the best because it was very succinct and easy to read as an outsider - it's not full of "insider talk". But if you've been around a while you start to know the way the non-Western world thinks and you can formulate a good query for google. :-) |
2010-12-10T15:35:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/10/leaked-or-planted/#comment-4658 |
| Hey, *I* thought it was a good topic, but it's just not catching on. I'll think about how to re-phrase this and pick it up again. In the meantime, I'll see if I can get something going on MinnPost - why not, they've been kind to me (I think Barataria has been picked up 17 times now!). | 2010-12-10T15:17:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4656 |
| Dan, that's what I'm talking about! It's an interesting under-current that we may hear more about in the future - especially as the traditional source of all happiness in the USofA, imported plastic stuff, becomes more expensive. I thought I'd put it out there to see what people thought. It's either a serious yawn, far more "wooly" than Cameron thinks, or I'm waaay ahead of the curve. (prolly want to go with curtain #2 on that one, Dan ...) |
2010-12-09T22:33:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4652 |
| William's the one getting married - the heir. Not to be too picky. I haven't said much about wikileaks because I think we don't know what it's all about yet. This isn't the first time that they have released stuff and I'm pretty sure that at least some of what got out was intended to get out - either as disinformation or an attempt to get some of our allies to stop screwing around. The latter could include all the Gulf States but really seems to apply to China vis a vis North Korea. So I'm still not sure what the wikileaks has really done, and I don't think anyone will know for a short while. A lot of the initial outrage probably was faked, after all. Yes, I realize I'm a paranoid. But I think the people at the State Department, et al, are a little smarter than the wikileaks folks. An outlet like that is far too useful to ignore. |
2010-12-08T22:36:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4640 |
| This hasn't proved to be a popular topic, but I'm still fascinated that it's being discussed at all. According to one UK resident on twitter it's not likely to go anywhere ... which I get. But, yes, the idea of measuring well-being is a topic in itself. It seems that this naturally leads to equity in a society IF it can be measured and then maximized in any way at all. | 2010-12-08T20:48:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4638 |
| I certainly don't want to take a strong stand at this time. It's an interesting idea, but a survey? There has to be something else. I like putting this into a national dialogue but it's awfully mushy. I know Cameron means it and wants to implement it well, but I could see this as a tool for nefarious action by other politicos later on. Dunno yet. | 2010-12-08T17:43:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4633 |
| Been a bit slow to respond to my own post - sorry, my laptop died and I've been working from the desktop. Not nearly as much fun. Jack: Tea is a personal thing, like a stolen moment in your bathrobe before you shower in the morning. For me, it's exactly like that at its best. :-) T: Darjeeling certainly has its moments. I have some Ceylon Orange Pekoe that I use in the afternoon sometimes - the sun streaming in the window sometimes says to me, "It's Pekoe time!" Dunno why, to be honest. It just does. Gwei: Thinking about the rituals and the moments apart from life forced by the gentle time it takes for a good steeping reminds me of pipe smoking. A much more filthy habit but one that has its own pace and requirement to slow down just long enough to enjoy the fruits of the world. Moments like this are why I can never be completely aesthetic and why Tao will always have an appeal over essence of Zen to me. Tarra: A very good tip I am checking out now. I have to confess I've been buying some teas locally from a tea store to supplement some of my habit - particularly in the Lapsang Souchong area, which is hard to come by. Earl Grey is a very special tea - the Bergamon in it makes an excellent iced tea that is lemon without being harsh. | 2010-12-08T02:24:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/06/winter-tea/#comment-4629 |
| Dan, that is just brilliant! I think you got to the core problem right away. It's as if we channel the same energy we used to put into just getting by into more and more push. There's a great Twilight Zone episode, "Willoughby" that I thought of as I read your comment. Know it? |
2010-12-03T18:59:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/03/re-invent-the-wheel/#comment-4600 |
| Jack, an excellent point. I bank at a tiny li'l credit union that serves Saint Paul and surroundings - and probably has a good idea on how to manage risk because they only invest in things that people can see. What do the small players who are up close and personal need to fill in the gaps? I'm almost ashamed to have concentrated on the big playahs here. Little banks can get cheap money, too - what can they do with it? Probably a lot more. | 2010-12-01T16:38:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/01/stated-risk/#comment-4577 |
| I want to get back to what Bruce said because it's important - and I don't think I've explained m'self very well. I'm trying to tie up a lot of loose ends here, and that includes making the connection between GDP growth and job growth. We saw in the regression line that we won't have serious job growth until we're well above 3.5% gains in GDP each year - and that's the link I want to make. So from the formula above we have all these independent variables. Neglecting any change in consumption, investment, or government any net increase in GDP comes from an increase in exports. Which is to say that in order to grow more jobs we need to grow more exports - or at least not have such a net negative in that category. Given that consumption is pretty much maxed out (like our plastic) and investment is just not going anywhere anytime soon AND our government is not likely to spend even more lately this is a pretty reasonable correlation. The only area that has potential for serious growth in the near future is probably exports - IF the stars and currencies align properly. Absent any of that, I don't see us getting the GDP growth we need to absorb the unemployment anytime soon. |
2010-11-30T17:26:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/#comment-4564 |
| Dan: Some of our production shifted to Canada and Mexico, so perhaps I should calculate the total balance of trade of North America - I'm always going on about how we're one people, so that might well be fair. Let me look into that and see if things look better - they should. Gwei: Thank you for taking this out of the US and towards the developed world. I don't know the details as well as my own nation, but I do know that the UK is in a position very similar to ours - and you say it's for very similar reasons, which only makes sense. So here is another connection to be looked at - what has been the net balance across the developed nations (say, G7) over the last 30 years or so? If it is a net negative it would be an interesting angle on all the things Brazil and China have been chiding us for lately. I think I have some interesting homework from these two comments. Thanks (I think ... :-) ) |
2010-11-30T15:01:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/#comment-4563 |
| Bruce, I see your point - and I've made it many times. I'd accept that if we weren't running such a consistent balance of trade deficit over such a long period of time. It's been said that "Machines should work, people should think" and I'm all for that if we're making about what we consume. We aren't, and haven't been for an awfully long time. A few years out of what is not a big problem but we're looking at a whole generation. | 2010-11-29T19:58:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/#comment-4559 |
| Anna: I've heard that argument, too, and I have to tell you I just don't get it. There's always hope that we'll consume less, much as that would hurt GDP, but as long as we do consume what we do the least we can do is make it ourselves. Sending the pollution problems out to developing nations isn't helping anyone in the long run - including Americans who need jobs! Jack: Good link, thanks! Want to include a live version: http://madeinusaforever.com/ Buy your holiday stuff from these guys, please! Meanwhile, it is true that any kind of sustained war (or anything!) would be very much ours to lose at this point. Demonizing unions is certainly part of the problem - and a very silly thing to do, IMHO. |
2010-11-29T18:26:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/#comment-4556 |
| Anna: I know, it's an uphill battle. Someone has to bring this stuff up, and it might as well be li'l ol' me. Jack: Yes, that is really the problem. And those who talk the loudest seem to have the most authority in this field (and many others, but I digress). That means that nonsense is repeated constantly. I can see it sometimes in the responses that I get in various media - you didn't even read what I wrote! is what I want to say. But I try to smile and be polite and just ... move on. It's funny, in a way, even when it's really rather sad. Don't worry, eveyone - in time, I'm sure it'll all even out. That's one of the big problems with so much newness, IMHO! :-) | 2010-11-22T22:56:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/22/grounding/#comment-4518 |
| Call it a bad habit, Jim? :-) You know I'm always trying to make connections between things - and that might not always work at first. It's hard to do this in 800 words or less (even with such an excellent picture as a prop!). I know this is a hard argument and it will be very unpopular one way or another. But I think it's very real. There just isn't a Renaissance without grounding in fundamentals. That was true in the Arab world 1000 years ago and in Europe 500 years ago. Our Founding Fathers here in the USofA were very well grounded in this stuff, too, and it really shows. Call me a hardcore conservative (small "c") but I agree that some of this new stuff is grossly over-rated - but still very useful, all the same if we look at it right. |
2010-11-22T17:33:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/22/grounding/#comment-4515 |
| Thanks everyone, especially the new people. Barataria is all about experiments in expanding our notion of the online social world and how it can expand. The "School" of Barataria is stronger with new input - and I'd encourage you all to flip through and offer the same experience to other subjects at hand here. I want to take off on a tangent raised by Howie, whose comment is dense with topics that could easily be explored in a series of 800 word posts on their own. One that intrigues me the most is how each community exists in relation to other communities, something I alluded to briefly in my own post (the layers of an onion). Many of my clients have an existing community in real life that social media will only supplement. A yarn store, for example, has a tight community that includes people who also tweet about their own projects, share them on facebook, and have an active presence on ravelry.com (an excellent site if you want to examine online community!). How do we tie them all together? To a large extent, the social media effort that this particular business needs is nothing more than that - tying their community into the larger ones. A very different problem. The interaction, the give-and-take, the sharing, the contributions to the art all take place in real life - they just need context to reinforce them and make them stronger. A very different problem from creating an online community from scratch, no? I think I have another post on this topic. The reason I wanted to deal with community as a concept revolves around this problem, which is integrating social media to the real world. Online communities do tend to be homogeneous and distinct. I want to bring in Connections Theory to broaden the definition away from the nuts and bolts of the peculiar online advantages and problems. Thanks to everyone, this is good stuff! | 2010-11-21T18:17:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4500 |
| Anna: I believe you're thinking of "Trust" from March 2009: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/03/27/trust/ It's a piece about how people organize communities. You're right, it's very relevant. But I'm dealing exclusively with physical communities in that case, which may or may not be different. I dunno, there may be more there to talk about. |
2010-11-20T21:28:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4495 |
| erica: Thanks so much! I agree that inspiration is very important, and I guess that's what working together brings out in people more than anything. A good way to put it, indeed. All of these definitions of community seem to include all the things that I say are needed to have good writing - something for heart and arm and brain. I like this a lot. I feel like "community" has come back to what I've long said about writing generally, which is that it's how it gets into a person's head that counts. Dialogue and community come back together that way. Very good stuff! For those that don't know, I stole my often used phrase "heart and arm and brain" from "The Mary Ellen Carter" by Stan Rogers. :-) |
2010-11-20T17:45:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4493 |
| Devilish: Popularity contests are a huge feature of social media, unfortunately. They do have the greatest potential for wrecking things because they are elitist and exclusionary by nature. People who are a bit different - and I count both of us in that! - are deliberately left out regardless of what we have to contribute. A real community is not so closed, and there is always strength in diversity. You raise an excellent point. I covered some of that in this post - it's a bit harsh, and might be stronger if ti took a step back, but the point is there: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/08/16/community-versus-scene/ Anna: "Something outside of ourselves" is a good way to look at it, too. You raised the "big high school" that I've commented on before. I do fear that there is an entire generation out there who have experienced few communities outside of High School and work, both of which can be terribly dysfunctional at times. Selfishness, insecurity, ego ... I think they are all the same thing, too. |
2010-11-19T20:08:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4488 |
| Jan, I'm more and more sure all the time that online will never be the same as real life. Ryan & Dale: I really like how you both emphasize your own contribution to community - you defined it as an active thing, not a static. I can't remember exactly where I first saw this line (perhaps "Bowling Alone"?) - "community isn't something you have, like a pizza." You also both talked about connections, which is something I wanted to tie in but felt I was getting too long-winded as it was (this piece is about getting input from others!). I think I see some broad agreement so far on some very interesting things. Let me go troll for more views and get back to you later. :-) | 2010-11-19T18:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4484 |
| Housing had to come down, so I never had an opinion on it, to be honest - it just had to happen. Payroll taxes go right to the overhead per employee that I've been stressing needs to be cut if we are going to create jobs, so I'm generally in favor of such reductions - but a temporary "holiday" seems a lot less interesting to me than a real reduction and concentrated effort in reducing all overhead. However, it's a good way to get more money out there over broad base - very much like the "helicopter drop" of money! | 2010-11-18T13:50:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/17/deflation/#comment-4471 |
| Thanks. I'd like to get this message out more widely because I'm very frustrated by the fact that economic news is far less forward looking than the weather or sports, to name two popular news segments. Managing risk in changing times is difficult and I fear we lack a lot of the basic tools to do it. I would like to see that change. Heck, I'd really like to have a gig helping to make that improvement. |
2010-11-17T19:00:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/17/deflation/#comment-4466 |
| We had similar conferences 1 and 2 years ago, and very little happened there, too. I've been upset about that because the worldwide currency regime needs a major overhaul - but no one is in a position to do it. The last time we got something together it happened because the US was in a position to win WWII and dictate terms to the world: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/20/out-of-the-woods/ Who will do it now? Apparently no one. The "Free Market" will find its own way, apparently, and it's not doing a good job of it so far. I fear that when it makes a move it will be to dump the US Dollar pretty quickly, causing a lot of turmoil. I'm not a huge fan of heavy regulation, but some sense of order benefits everyone at the least - and currencies do require a lot of cooperation between governments that just isn't happening. We're possibly looking at a major free market freefall, I fear. Fasten your seatbelts! |
2010-11-16T23:50:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/15/g20-finds-its-seoul/#comment-4457 |
| Anna: Yes and no, but thanks for the chance to clarify. On re-read this does seem a bit more right-wing than I'd like. I'm deeply worried that we are still, two years into the point where this Depression became obvious, not treating it as urgently as we need to. I fault both parties domestically for that. There is still a vague focus on increasing consumer spending to lift the economy, which is to say the same old Keynesian stuff we slammed on hard through the Bush years. I took the tone I did because I was trying to write from a Brazilian perspective, more or less. I didn't make a big deal of that because I'm still not 100% sure that I can do it well, but I wanted to try it out. Developing nations are, indeed, very critical of what we're doing - but it's important to note that Brazil's government is very much to the left of ours in almost every key way of looking at it (and is sometimes called "Marxist" by respected news organizations). So please don't take this as "right wing" criticism. Although regular readers will know that I frequently see our left and right as being hopelessly mixed up right now, so it may domestically be a rightist argument! |
2010-11-15T16:41:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/15/g20-finds-its-seoul/#comment-4451 |
| > beg for forgiveness while kneeling on a chopping block. Doesn't that seem a bit ... I dunno, excessive at best? Seriously, a call to humiliate members of your own party hardly seems productive at all. That kind of internal warfare would create a solid generation of Republican rule, something which I do not think we can tolerate. So I think it's best to leave that kind of language out of the equation no matter what. OK? |
2010-11-12T22:58:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/#comment-4437 |
| Eh, I'm not really Amish, you know. The term is "Plattdeutcher" for the ethnicity - means literally "soil German" or farmer. It's hard to talk about because I'm not really one of them but it does color my outlook pretty heavily. Very hard to explain well. But I do love this story of deliverance. I think it's time we give Penn his due! |
2010-11-12T18:07:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/12/a-thanksgiving-story/#comment-4433 |
| Pat, while it's true that progress does seem to only come in waves (to the extent it comes at all) I'm worried that we've lost some critical pieces of our main argument for being lately. I addressed some of them here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/10/25/work-creates-wealth/ In many ways, it's just a re-hash of what I've been saying since before the 2008 election, but I'm trying to refine my arguments to get at the key issue. Also I'm trying to get something to catch on. :-) |
2010-11-12T00:52:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/#comment-4426 |
| Bob - big THANK YOU for that contribution! Reich is a real hero, and he speaks to what I was getting at (badly, by comparison). We do have to change the debate. Big forces are running people's lives in ways that they don't understand, and we have to show that we are the way they can band together and get some control over it. That's my lesson from what Reich said. Holly - I'll get with ya in a bit ... yes, it's about inspiring people and how we lead, more or less. Take it however you want - getting some good alternative perspectives here away from my original bit and it's been gold so far! :-) |
2010-11-10T21:04:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/#comment-4421 |
| Solomon, your point that listening to voters is the most important thing is what good politics is all about. It goes with what L Z had to say about picking the individual in the sense that a good track record does appear to be what people vote on in the first place - a good system should be able to respond to that, too. Dale, Janine, I'm no so sure that the future is on the Left. Yes, it is for the short term, but if we let that argument drift for a while we might be surprised where we go. It might look like today's center, but it also might look like something completely different. That's what I hope. |
2010-11-10T19:16:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/#comment-4418 |
| Carol: Connectedness is, generally, a good thing. There is some inherent strangeness when connections go through a machine, as I've commented on before: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/07/19/barking-at-the-net/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/10/01/online-life-as-an-onion/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/06/28/ex-machina/ My use of "Barataria" has the same origin as jean Lafitte's name for his own "Kingdom" in the swamps of Louisiana - the "cheap lands" or swamp promised to Sancho Panza at the end of Don Quixote: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/about/ Hope that makes sense! :-) |
2010-11-06T21:29:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/05/social-not-media/#comment-4388 |
| Tina: What the Bush Admin did was technically TARP, or "Troubled Asset Relief Program". It wasn't as much about attempting to stimulate the economy as it was to prevent a massive failure. But if that's too much of a quibble you do have a point - it makes more sense to refer to "The Federal Government" than "The Obama Administration" above. I do think that would make the piece stronger. As for the hoax quip - I think you can answer that yourself, which makes me wonder why you raised it. If you're sore at me, I'm sorry, but I did feel compelled to do whatever I can for good friends who I think are getting screwed. |
2010-11-04T21:10:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/29/what-happened/#comment-4376 |
| Over the long haul it's hard to say what history will write about the era we're in now. I really do think the dice are in the air regardless of who wins any given election. Just want to point out that in the Minnesota Governor election Emmer received 910k votes, which is less than the 1.0-1.1M that I was calling his "base" from previous elections. I'm going to stand by what I said and chalk this up to his mis-steps along the way. He really should have won with everything else running in his favor. |
2010-11-04T13:56:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/03/lead-the-way/#comment-4373 |
| Thanks, everyone. I hope it was as much fun for everyone as it was for me. I know that no legacy media took this story, but that's OK - we cooked it up a bit fast and didn't have enough time to really play it out. What matters is that Saint Paul has its legends continue to comfort us when we need them the most. Gini, I take the word "lying" in the same spirit that Mark Twain did: http://grammar.about.com/od/60essays/a/lyingessay.htm A good storyteller is nothing more than a good liar put to good use. :-) |
2010-10-27T21:41:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/27/hoax/#comment-4332 |
| I feel as though I should admit this now that the day is over. I was going to post about how much I miss Sen. Paul Wellstone on this, the 8th anniversary of his death. I decided instead that he would want us all to focus on what's important moving forward with courage and dignity. So that's what I wrote about instead. I especially appreciate talking about the importance of education and reforming it so that everyone has what they really need because that's what Paul and Sheila would always say was the most important thing. I miss you, Paul and Sheila. |
2010-10-25T23:07:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/25/work-creates-wealth/#comment-4318 |
| Dave: We agree on all of these things, but the Democrats have to realize that in order to remain irrelevant they at least have try to get beyond the consumer frenzy. The Republicans just have a better series of talking, er, screaming points right now. Dan: Yup, "Labor Creates All Wealth" is what I started from. I decided to avoid the word "Labor" because it's taken on a different meaning than it once did. I didn't realize that phrase was over 200 years old, so thanks! |
2010-10-25T22:05:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/25/work-creates-wealth/#comment-4316 |
| LZ, you're very much right that we aren't training kids in the skills necessary to be flexible and "keep their eyes open" to take advantage of new opportunities in a changing world. Learning how you learn is probably the one thing that is the most critical for any kid, but we always favor a "system" that keeps chugging along no matter what. The kids I've seen do like to learn when they get that spark in their minds, but everyone learns differently. You are right that education is, ultimately, the basis of everything. It's the difference between a "Brave New World" of appliance users who don't understand jack about what's going down around them and fully engaged citizens of a Democratic Republic who can make things happen. If I could sum it up, I'd say that Education is the ultimate investment in people. If we can't do that well the human side - the work - really is lost. Thanks for the addition. |
2010-10-25T16:30:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/25/work-creates-wealth/#comment-4312 |
| I will let everyone know as soon as we get something resolved. | 2010-10-20T18:54:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/20/the-streets-of-lowertown/#comment-4267 |
| Thanks, Dan. I don't know how this plays out politically - a lot depends on how much people get "into it" and understand what's going on. As long as they get to use technical jargon (and it isn't translated inthe popular press) I think that it'll go over most people's heads. I think that's a real shame if it goes down that way. BTW, I was searching for when I first wrote about this. I didn't say anything directly when we had QE1 because there was so much else going on - I kept it in context. But I did make this joke on April Fool's Day 2007: http://tinyurl.com/3lcgl8 This was back when I was a "perma-bear" to many people. :-) |
2010-10-15T17:36:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/15/quantitative-easing/#comment-4257 |
| It's worse than that, Anna. For one thing, what if it doesn't work - like the first round? Keep trying it and pumping more money into the economy? For another thing it does challenge us all to re-evaluate what all this stuff means in our daily lives. Some lefties (like me) get upset when people angrily shout the anti-tax mantra, "It's my money!" because they (reasonably) don't like the word "my". I get upset because of the word "money". It's nothing more than a way of keeping score, something that is only defined in a social sense in the first place. Anyone who stops and thinks about this stuff has to realize that without some kind of agreement, ie a "social contract, it's all perfectly meaningless. I hope that QE and QE2 (hopefully there won't be a QE3!) will get people to realize this. |
2010-10-15T16:39:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/15/quantitative-easing/#comment-4255 |
| Mike, you have to ask yourself why good candidate win - and the answer is that they get people to show up. At least, that's the case for the DFL. I left out all other parties because, if you look at it from the perspective of the task in front of the DFL, what matters most is the constancy of that Republican base - it's 1.0-1.1M people no matter what you do. I almost left off the DFL numbers because they don't really matter all that much, either (outside of explaining why it's been 6 elections since they won). |
2010-10-14T13:04:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/13/those-who-show-up/#comment-4243 |
| Exactly. It's really all about who shows up. Percentages can tell us something about how it's going, but in the end what counts is whether or not the DFLers show up at the polls. The Republicans are pretty much going to be there no matter what. A different way to look at things, is all. I get tired of the horse race in part because I think it actually discourages people from doing their bit on election day. The real story is both easier and more complicated. My kinda story. :-) |
2010-10-13T17:02:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/13/those-who-show-up/#comment-4240 |
| Thanks. I said about as much as I could last year for Dia de la Raza, a holiday I do think is worth celebrating. I was struck this year by the lack of any mention of any Columbus Day sales or anything (other than the lack of mail today!) and the coincidence with Canada's Thanksgiving. It seems to me that we are just plowing along not even trying to do anything except work ourselves to death (at least among those who still have jobs!). There's so much we need to do as a culture if we're really going to be a nation that can deal with its problems. |
2010-10-11T19:31:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/11/dia-de-la-raza-and-thanksgiving/#comment-4223 |
| Yes, it's Bananas. :-) Sorry, no prize, tho. | 2010-10-07T15:39:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/06/currency-war/#comment-4205 |
| This was a bit of a subtle piece, dealing with a subject that not many people encounter in their daily lives at all. But it was interesting to me one year after writing about how ForEx people were the ones to keep an eye on that we are entering a time when the competitive world economy is undergoing a real shakedown. This is simply not a good thing, but it was inevitable. Let's see how it plays. | 2010-10-07T14:12:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/06/currency-war/#comment-4203 |
| Erica: Neat interactive graph, thanks! That was especially good after Bruce's comment here - it all goes back to productivity at some point. I do agree that decoupling health care completely from work is one of the most important things we can do - a point Obama half-heartedly was trying to make when he emphasized health care reform so early in his term. We didn't quite get what we needed on that score, but we got something. Hopefully it'll get the ball rolling. Bob: A solid program of construction is always a good idea when we have a situation like this, and I hope we're doing enough to make a difference. I saw today that initial unemployment claims are still around 450k, which is an awful lot of people looking for work. Ug. |
2010-10-07T14:10:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4202 |
| Also, I forgot to include this link for some reason - it's another post with a lot of fun graphs: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/07/07/job-creation/ "Overall, the chart looks a lot like 1980 when it comes to claims for jobless benefits. As the year progresses the simplest thing to watch if you are looking for signs of a recovery is for initial claims to drop below 450k per week, where it has been for all of 2010." (they haven't consistently for the 3 months that have passed since this was written) |
2010-10-04T21:47:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4194 |
| Bruce: Productivity is a good addition. My hunch, when I latched onto this one graph, was that we were looking square into the eyes of another perspective on the "money multiplier" problem, or why Fed stimulus just doesn't work as well as it used to. Somehow, this is all related, I'm sure. Anna: I agree, the announcement that the recession is over was pretty silly at best, but they have their technical definitions - all of them backward looking. Real helpful, ain't it? :-) |
2010-10-04T21:39:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4193 |
| Yes, this is all related. There's been a lot of new data and new perspectives on the economy lately - I'm reporting the ones that get me thinking and give me a chance to add my own research to the topic. I think that this net difference in base GDP growth to affect unemployment could possibly be related to the fact that we're playing with the numbers and doing too much economic stimulation (without a real money multiplier!). I did leave that in there, if vaguely, so that you can draw your own conclusions. However, I do think that if there are high barriers to job creation the relationship will be very out of whack and I'm going to stay with that as the main problem. I'll go as far as to say that upwards of 5% GDP growth YoY is necessary to make any kind of dent in the unemployment rate, however. That looks pretty solid to me no matter what the cause. |
2010-10-04T16:16:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4190 |
| Dan: It may just be age, but I do think that my conversations with strangers are turning a bit. Just a feeling, hard to quantify. Anna: I just want to know if I'm not alone in what I'm seeing, and you seem to agree with that. I appreciate that. What we call it or how we describe it is another thing. Jim: Excellent point - perhaps the line for "really crazy s^&t" finally was drawn and everyone has to stop screwing around and make it clear which side they are standing on. |
2010-09-24T16:36:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/24/acceptance/#comment-4147 |
| Yuri, excellent question. If someone says "Yes" you probably have to be prepared to engage them, at least out of politeness. I'd say that you could just ask "Why?", like a little kid, or you could say why you don't think it's nearly as important as pick-one:[economy, deficit, unemployment, healthcare]. Don't Ask, Don't Tell is one that is important to a lot of people who are affected by it - and it is a Civil Rights issue. I think everyone gets a free pass on a civil rights issue that affects them to say that it's clearly their #1 without any question from li'l _me_. Now, if it's *not* something that affects them I think it's fair game to ask them why they care. I've been through that with a lot of ex-military and it's always been pretty respectful even though we disagree, so I guess that's all I can expect. Short version: Don't think DADT qualifies as a "Dark Issue" because some people have really well thought out reasons why it's their #1. There are way worse issues out there, IMHO. |
2010-09-23T15:14:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/18/dark-issues/#comment-4140 |
| Dan, I get all this kind of chatter. I don't usually respond or say anything, but I'm pretty sure this one will spill over into the regular press. I wanted to be sure the real message wasn't lost in a playground spat. I do feel bad for the guy because I think he's about to have a lot of embarrassment added to a really bad situation for him. He doesn't need all this, either. |
2010-09-22T21:37:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/22/stonewalling/#comment-4138 |
| Bruce, as usual I think we agree completely. I honestly do think that there are ways to reduce the amount of government we have - or, at least, redirect what we have to be more effective. But I do not think we'll ever get there as long as one side is so incredibly dogmatic and refuses to engage in the debate in any way. Our system requires us to be engaged in order to get anything done. These guys aren't up to that challenge, and it saddens me. I might be a DFLer, but I value good competition - without that, we get lazy and useless. | 2010-09-22T15:24:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/20/economic-theory/#comment-4130 |
| Dan, you bring up two things I've been thinking about a lot lately. The first is how much, in practice, this particular economic theory winds up being exactly the same as Keynesianism. I decided not to get into it here, but in the past I've gone after the same "cut taxes, but not spending" routine as Keynesianism - and I do think they are very much the same thing. The second point is how very much the world changed not just in WWI but immediately after - and how little any of us understand of this turbulent time. The influenza, the rise of the religious right and prohibition, and the simultaneous success of woman's suffrage are all not well understood by anyone I know. You are right to add a series of economic and social theories which came from this time that we accept as just part of our body of thought - but we have very little idea what really created these theories or what they mean. Weird stuff. Good luck with your hearing! |
2010-09-20T15:01:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/20/economic-theory/#comment-4123 |
| Jim, I hope we can laugh. Better than shouting (or crying?) :-) Dan, I'm staking my claim to being the first to call for this - had to "overlink" a bit. Sorry. But yes, please go visit The Daily Show and see the call - you'll love it, I'm sure. Note: "The Call to Sanity" unfortunately does rhyme with "Sean Hannity". I just want to point out that in the great scheme of rhyme and reason the two may be together in rhyme but never in reason. Thank you. | 2010-09-17T16:00:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/17/rally-to-restore-sanity/#comment-4116 |
| Thanks, everyone. I've been thinking of this for months now. The latest incident simply put me over the top. I'm not the best Christian in the world, I admit. But I do take the teachings of Jesus very seriously. It has become obvious to me that the mis-representation of what he taught us has completely overshadowed the message of genuine peace and grace, which is to say that if we don't act soon we're in danger of losing the truth. I can't sit back and let that happen any longer. I hope you all feel the same and gain the strength to start calling out this terrible distortion for what it is. The Pharisees cannot win this one. Thank you. |
2010-09-08T20:16:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/08/pharisees/#comment-4066 |
| I accept the last criticism. How about this: Good writing is a process. Write for humans, but edit for SEO. Work better? :-) |
2010-09-02T22:36:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/20/forget-seo-write-for-humans/#comment-4044 |
| Gini: I know that you can do a little optimizing to make sure you get to the top of the search engines - as I do from time to time. But I also know that you write, first and foremost, for humans and not just the search engines. :-) I'm not really against a little SEO, as shown in this particular post. But good content always has its own rewards. I think even Daniel Burnham might agree (especially now that I own the poor guy!). :-) |
2010-08-24T20:53:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/20/forget-seo-write-for-humans/#comment-4012 |
| T, I think the main point in community building is that people are never going to stay "on topic" enough to focus on something as narrow as just real estate. There's simply far more to the community than that. The way I describe "Community" is to take a bar that has a wide variety of people in it. Why do they come there? Each has their own reasons, but generally they know other people they hope to meet. And the conversations go off in all kinds of different directions. And, incidentally, if the biz you're plugging online is a bar or restaurant, the center of community for the purpose of social media *is* the bar itself, not anything online. It's all a matter of crossing from the virtual world to the real world easily, which people do in a lot of ways. I'm still learning by watching on that score. :-) |
2010-08-17T13:26:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/16/community-versus-scene/#comment-3967 |
| Oh, Molly, I worry about that. :-) Jim: Come up with better labels, it's OK. I'm not usually good at that kind of thing. :-) |
2010-08-11T18:44:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/11/opt-out-of-da-noize/#comment-3948 |
| Thanks, everyone. The report is pretty stark, and while it generated some heat when it first came out the outrage died pretty quickly. I'm not sure what was done in response and I'd like to know more. What I can tell you is that this anniversary would be a perfect time to investigate the systemic problems - but the techno stuff seemed way kewler. That's why I think we are doomed. |
2010-07-30T18:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/30/a-bridge-too-far/#comment-3894 |
| I think it's very strange how most people think cats aren't social at all. They clearly have their own language, of a kind. Much more expressive than dogs in some ways! | 2010-07-26T23:12:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/26/cat-pride/#comment-3868 |
| I think this is a situation where it's easy to fall into stereotypes, and for at least one point I made that mistake myself. Individual men and women all react to the pressures differently - and as time goes on there is an increasing diversity as to how people respond to these pressures. I wanted to write this from the perspective of the social images of men and women that are held as a kind of cultural framework. I can see that this is a very difficult thing to do because it does become very personal to all of us at some point. I, at least, can't help but react the way I do personally. Everyone winds up having their own decisions, crises, and directions in response to the pressures. The main point is this: gender roles changed damned fast in the USofA and most of the "Developed World". In many ways, cultural pressure went from one extreme to another when it comes to defined roles for men and women, boys and girls. I don't think what we have now has been absorbed, thought out, or even questioned in ways that cause anything other than a lot of pain. It's hard to keep that from getting personal - and falling back into stereotypes. Thanks to everyone for helping me stand back a bit. |
2010-07-22T16:21:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/21/role-playing/#comment-3854 |
| Thanks. I'm just trying to get some context together to make sense of this smoldering rage that doesn't appear capable of being directed in a positive way. Honestly, some of this has been going on for decades, but has government actually gotten any smaller? You'd think people would be able to get a clue from the horrible track record, but they seem to think that getting angrier is all they can do. They don't seem to realize how much that makes them tools of the infotainment world and some very selfish politicos. | 2010-07-14T19:07:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/14/rage-against-rage/#comment-3809 |
| Thanks, everyone. I hate looking back like this, making judgments about today. But I can't help it. We're in a deep hole and have to figger a way out. | 2010-07-09T16:55:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/09/all-politics-is-local-2/#comment-3789 |
| Gwei: Thanks for the update on the UK. What affects you affects us, and vice-versa. This is a very global problem, like all Depressions, and has the potential to keep spreading as long as there is a clear shortage of work to go around. It's separating us all into the Haves and Have-nots in ways that I do not think we are used to. |
2010-07-07T16:58:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/07/job-creation/#comment-3774 |
| Thanks, everyone. Jim, you have an excellent point. I'll see if I can dig out some more things highlighting the service sector. | 2010-07-07T15:19:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/07/job-creation/#comment-3772 |
| Gwei, I've heard form many people wh osurvived the Depression of the 1930s what a wonderful time it was because people stayed together and made their own fun. Funny, isn't it? I guess it's all a matter of attitude at some point. Jim & Anna, I don't like our holiday becoming just another excuse to drink beer at the cabin - but I agree that it's coming to that. |
2010-07-05T16:13:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/05/family-time/#comment-3761 |
| Paul, that's exactly what I want to get at. We're being pulled apart right now and a lot of people don't seem to think of us as "one people" the way they used to. But we are. What ideals hold us together? "Freedom" seems like it would be as likely to pull us apart as an abstract idea, so there has to be more. Confession time: I've told this story before, and people ask how I could come up with something so good on the fly. They don't believe me. Actually, I got the idea that Jefferson's statement in the Declaration is our catechism from George Will. So there. :-) Also, Harald spoke English very well. On re-read, I should have made it clear that I didn't have to make my fancified statements in German (which I could not ever do!). |
2010-07-03T13:44:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/02/fly-the-flag-2/#comment-3755 |
| Thanks, guys. Yes, Jim, I was doing it more for the fun than any kind of "responsibility" at first - and it was fun. Janine, I think people respect us generally more than we usually think, but it's really best to make sure and be a decent guest in another nation. | 2010-07-02T15:18:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/02/fly-the-flag-2/#comment-3752 |
| Dan - that sounds like a pretty good ride to me! I guess in the interest of disclosure I should say that with tax, tag, and some front-end work it wound up hitting $1400 for mine. Escorts are cheap and reliable, but a Honda would be a bit nicer. I can forgive that much vanity pretty easily. :-) Jim - There are many options, for sure. Every time I see a big hulking piece of iron on the road I have to wonder about people's values in life, to be honest. I know, "judge not, lest ye be judged," but it's hard to not at least wonder. All I have to do is look at the "oil geyser", as Anna calls it, and question a lot of where we are as a people. |
2010-06-25T16:05:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/25/car-ful-living/#comment-3717 |
| OK, now I'll write about football! Obviously, I wrote this before the matches today (so I had time to watch!). I did not expect England to beat Slovenia, so that just shows what I know. I have to say, however, that the US team are exactly what Soccer needs in the USofA right now. Robbed of two goals in two successive games, they never seemed to let it rattle them. They stayed focused and patiently waited for their opportunities. When the time came, they made the fast break and worked well as a team. They aren't flashy at all, but are a solid team built on fundamentals. In short, the kids who are playing soccer across this nation right now have just about the perfect role models for the spirit of the game. I couldn't ask for anything more - especially since we topped our Group in the first round! Thanks, team USA. You're the best! (I hope what I said about Latin America holds for us, too!) |
2010-06-23T17:38:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/23/gooooal/#comment-3706 |
| You are correct, Bruce. This is merely the same thing as always concentrated in one very important place. | 2010-06-22T13:23:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/21/the-gulf-of-life/#comment-3700 |
| Thanks - I'm glad you're taking this the way I meant it, which is to say as idle speculation. I'm not saying that something terrible is going to happen with our climate, just that there is a real possibility that it could go down that way. I just want us to keep our eyes open as we move ahead and think this through. If nothing else, a serious drought through the whole breadbasket of North America would be a good time to hold corn and soybean futures. It also is a good reason to put an end to the wasteful practice of converting grain to ethanol, although I suspect that people who don't understand how silly that process is will probably call for more ethanol, believing it is a substitute for oil somehow. | 2010-06-21T15:00:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/21/the-gulf-of-life/#comment-3694 |
| The call that resulted in our losing the game was an offsides, a lot like icing in hockey. It wasn't offsides to me. The biggest problem with soccer is the lack of checking, which sets up a lot of rules based on contact that are very hard to enforce evenly. Worse yet, a lot of players like to act hurt to try to get the refs to believe that there was a foul - it's very undignified, at best. :-) |
2010-06-18T21:48:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/18/futbol/#comment-3679 |
| Jim, Janine - The role of the refs is the one thing I don't like about soccer/football. It is very frustrating at times. Molly - I've come to accept this over time, too. There is a very important thing about sports that when it works well you can't deny it. Football (American) is something that I've seen bring people of various races and backgrounds together in a city that was torn by all kinds of strife, so I won't complain. When it works, it's often the one thing that really does work. I say go with it. (but don't set cars on fire, please? :-) ) |
2010-06-18T18:57:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/18/futbol/#comment-3677 |
| Hey, maybe I should pitch Downriver again, if that's what's in! Good thing we're getting away from vampires, that was old a long time ago. | 2010-06-16T22:49:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/16/public-and-private/#comment-3669 |
| Thanks, everyone! Gwei, I'm open to a side conversation by mail, since we're in the same situation in many ways. | 2010-06-07T16:00:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/07/innovation/#comment-3625 |
| Thanks, Beth! I took the liberty of fixing those, but I'll confess how they happened. Spell-check can make me lazy at times, and in this case all instances of "twitter" and "retweet" were underlined as incorrect words. I simply got used to it and didn't look at them more closely. D'oh! | 2010-05-30T13:34:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/05/28/ode-to-twitter/#comment-3564 |
| Thanks, Kory. I appreciate your experience very much. | 2010-04-19T20:18:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/04/16/formaldehyde/#comment-3312 |
| Jim: I have no trouble saying that the past is over and it was just wrong. But the past is very hard to make any sense of at all. I tried to make it clear that MacMullen had no personal animosity towards anyone because of their skin color - he really didn't. Like any small town, Perrine was a place where people knew each other pretty well - but there was still obvious racism. Getting to understand this situation is more than just understanding the moral ambiguity - there was situational ambiguity. It just happened, it's just the way it was. That's the heritage that anyone who grew up in the South has to face. The Civil War is a lot easier for some people to digest because at least something happened. The Old South was a place that was far harder to make any sense of at all. More to the point, it's been entirely swept away by a lot of things. That's a lot of what really hurts to people. They have absolutely no way of making any sense of it at all. So they invent a "Heritage" that, at least, has some flash to it. |
2010-04-12T19:49:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/04/12/confederate-history-month/#comment-3276 |
| Thank you both! I do appreciate very much not just your readership but your contribution to this community. I know I'm a much better writer when I have solid feedback, especially when things simply don't work. I know I've been corrected a few times, too. You guys keep me honest and focused and add so very much to the richness of the topics I humbly write about. Thank you! There really wouldn't be a Barataria without you! |
2010-04-09T15:16:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/04/09/three-years-on/#comment-3258 |
| eeee-Yup! Funny how things get past the press so easily, iddn't it? | 2010-04-07T15:01:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/04/07/elian/#comment-3240 |
| John: There is a good reason that MPR is a target lately, and it has a lot to do with their revenue model not breaking like everyone else's. The Strib has good reason to be afraid, IMHO. But look at the Annual Report, esp page 5: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/about/mpr/finance/annual_report_2008.pdf MPR gets 13.8M$ of its 80.5M$ from individual contributions - that 17%. But there's more to it than that. I can't find it again, but I remember once seeing a breakdown of those individual contributions by what services people support. If I remember correctly, the share of "Classical Music Only" plus half of "Both Classical and News" added up to about 60%. IF that is right, I have trouble believing that the expenses of Classical are as large as news gathering - it's a person in a booth spinning discs, fer goodness sake! So I have a sneaking suspicion that Classical Music is subsidizing News at MPR. But I can't prove it. Can anyone help me with this? If that does prove to be the case, individual contributions to News are probably around 10% of the News budget, which is similar to what subscriptions pay at a paper, if I remember right (or at least ballpark). Interesting, no? It's still a very different revenue model that hasn't broken yet, but the statement "people don't pay the real cost of their news" holds. :-) |
2010-03-31T20:05:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/31/journalism-past-and-future/#comment-3202 |
| It's a bit too long as a piece, but I'm commenting on some discussions I've had with several people over the last week. It seems to me that several themes keep coming back and one central point has to be made. I hope that this is only the start of a different kind of conversation on the topic. | 2010-03-31T17:14:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/31/journalism-past-and-future/#comment-3198 |
| That is an excellent way to look at it, T! Teresa has a number of photos and comments on the flood on St Paul Real Estate Blog that you might want to check out. I'm not a photo person, so go to T for the visuals. | 2010-03-24T15:03:42+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/24/rising-water/#comment-3138 |
| Gwei: Sadly, I have so little of my people's old language in me that I can make out the words for Patrick, festival, and day - and that's about it. :-) Thank you! Dale: Yes, the story keeps moving the same way all the time. It's been that way for well over 150 years. It's like Fraternity's initiation hazing to treat the latest "different" people badly for a while before they get to be full members. But today, we're all Frat Brothers of a kind, at least in the sense that we'll drink too much and get sick. :-) |
2010-03-17T12:28:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/17/st-patricks-day-2/#comment-3097 |
| I'll start everyone off with a quotation I was surprised I never worked into a piece since I use it often. It originates with Eleanor Roosevelt, but was popularized by Paul Wellstone - "Poltiics is not about money or power or influence, but is about improving people's lives". | 2010-03-10T15:30:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/10/quotations/#comment-3049 |
| Thanks, everyone, as always. We have a strong DFL team, but we have to start getting things done in a hurry if we're going to avoid slipping any further behind. Our legacy is not something we can simply rest on anymore - if Minnesota is going to continue being and being known as the best, we have to work hard to make it so. That's the real legacy we inherited, after all. Let's make it happen! | 2010-03-03T18:56:24+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/03/convention-wisdom-2/#comment-2997 |
| All fair statements, IMHO. There are a lot of other factors unique to University Ave as well, no matter what we do. I'd also like to point out that when looking at the Hiawatha Line there was an expensive ($80M, if I remember well) tunnel that pretty much had to be there, which is to say that the rest of it came in pretty much in line with Charlotte's experience. We can't be exact on any of this without a careful study. However, we do know that a lot of the expense of the Central Corridor is based on utility relocations which are not needed for a streetcar, and that experience suggests that a streetcar is about 1/3 the cost of LRT. I believe very strongly that not only can we build a better system on University Avenue, but we can build it for less than $400 million (and possibly a lot less, but not likely less than $200M). If I didn't think there were alternatives to the LRT plan, I probably wouldn't bother to say a thing. I think it's incumbent on those who complain to have an alternative, and you've seen mine. More to the point, the plan in place is so fatally flawed that it probably cannot be built, at least without a ton more money (as Sheldon points out). Peter Bell himself confessed on MPR that the odds of the plan being built are now "50-75%", which is to say far from "inevitable". I hope you can see the many reasons - based on personal needs, planning, transportation, and development - why a "Plan B" is a good idea. |
2010-03-02T20:37:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/26/steel-in-the-street/#comment-2983 |
| No prob, Bruce, there are a zillion details here. I don't have all the answers, and I'm not always presenting what I have in a way that helps make sense of them. It's a work in progress. It's MPR that thought they had an agreement, but then went ahead with a lawsuit: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/02/04/mpr-lrtlawsuit/?refid=0&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MPR_NewsFeatures+%28News+%26+Features+from+Minnesota+Public+Radio%29 All I know is what's in the article on the suit. The "floating slab" is what's at stake here, and one was indeed implemented in Charlotte. I'd like to note that Streetcars make this a lot easier to implement because the lower weight means they rest on a slab to start with. Portland got their streetcar running in 3 years, design to build, from 1998-2001. By my watch, if you want a line running in 2014 we still have some extra time to deal with the issues unique to University Ave. I realize that's pretty glib, but these other cities are our competition after all. If the Vikings don't win the ring, we demand changes rather than fault the Saints for being good. I completely agree that poor transit is a huge problem. Having been close to this process off and on for 20 years (I served on two committees looking at the West End) I've come to fault our team for their poor performance. I think the examples of Portland, Tacoma, Charlotte, Atlanta - and many other cities - shows that we have a unique problem. Can we run an appropriate line along University that *improves* local service and preserves parking? Yes, we can. I have a drawing located here, poor as it is: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/06/08/pedestrian-friendly/ This is one set of trade-offs, your mileage may vary. But it fits if you do it right. The current plan doesn't accommodate either parking or pedestrians very well and cuts back on the 16 rather dramatically. That's a pretty big failure, IMHO, especially since there are so many alternatives on a 120' wide street. |
2010-03-02T19:55:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/01/ha-tien/#comment-2981 |
| Sorry to post this in two places, but the two discussions are ongoing. I just realized that not everyone understands the difference between LRT and a Streetcar. There has been a tremendous amount of confusion here, the two terms being used interchangeably at times. I believe that some of this confusion has been intention on the part of advocates and/or the Met Council. Here is the best summary I've seen yet of the distinction, prepared for Denver (in pdf format): Streetcar and Lightrail Characteristics The meaty table is on page 6, but I recommend the whole document. It shows the wide range of options that other cities consider when they compete with us for Federal money and decide how to fit a transit system into an urban landscape. | 2010-03-02T17:27:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/26/steel-in-the-street/#comment-2978 |
| I just realized that not everyone understands the difference between LRT and a Streetcar. There has been a tremendous amount of confusion here, the two terms being used interchangeably at times. I believe that some of this confusion has been intention on the part of advocates and/or the Met Council. Here is the best summary I've seen yet of the distinction, prepared for Denver (in pdf format): Streetcar and Lightrail Characteristics The meaty table is on page 6, but I recommend the whole document. It shows the wide range of options that other cities consider when they compete with us for Federal money and decide how to fit a transit system into an urban landscape. | 2010-03-02T17:06:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/01/ha-tien/#comment-2977 |
| Bruce: The choice we have in front of us should NOT be LRT versus a "no build". The reason I am scaling up my posting on this topic is that I sense that this project is beginning to face what I consider inevitable - that it would be stalled out for a while before it dies a slow death. That is not because we do not need transit, but because it was poorly conceived and designed. There is an alternative, which is the modern streetcar. Please see the previous post to understand how this has been implemented in other cities and why it is the correct choice for a rail system on University Avenue. I offer this as a "Plan B" when this project finally collapses of its own weight. There remains a somewhat trickier potential to use existing right-of-way in the BN, CP, or I-94 corridors for high speed mass transit of the LRT design. That could also work, but it would take longer to implement given how much time we have wasted over-engineering University. As for a "land that time forgot", that was never my intent. At Western, however, there is a definite sense that it is a different place than anywhere else on University - and in Saint Paul. The local businesses have several times asked for special decorations, public sculpture, etc to designate that area as some kind of "Little Saigon", but it has never materialized. Part of the issue is that there are several distinct "Asian" groups that do not agree to the name. But the designation as a place apart is not only very real but has been proposed many times by the businesses themselves as a marketing tool. |
2010-03-02T16:34:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/01/ha-tien/#comment-2976 |
| Thanks, everyone. I just want to get the word out. Having been on top of this for 20 years I still cannot believe that we've gotten where we are today, an EIS that is horribly inadequate and about to have to stand up to 3 full lawsuits in court. It makes me sick, too. Bob, I can't answer as to how many places run up against the CEI like we do because we don't hear all that discussion. Informally, I was told that it's pretty rare that the CEI really drives the design as much as it has here. What I can tell you is that our process has consistently been about chasing the money, looking at just what the Feds will fund and carefully designing everything around that process. When Portland put in their first streetcar in 2001, they got zip from the Feds because it wasn't supported by the FTA. They did it anyway because it was the right thing to do. Now, streetcars *are* supported by the FTA and Portland is expanding theirs. Many other cities are moving ahead on their lines, too. If we've learned one thing through this process, I believe it is this: Do not chase the money, solve the problems. The money will find a way if you have a solution that people are willing to get on board. |
2010-02-26T17:42:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/26/steel-in-the-street/#comment-2936 |
| Things may not be as different as we think, I suppose. We have an excellent relationship with Canada that includes more bi-lateral trade than any other two nations, and we once burned each others' capitols. So it's possible that it might have worked out pretty well in that sense. However, there would have been a constant wave of refugees (I won't call them "slaves") escaping that would be a constant headache. My guess is that some kind of conflict was inevitable even if we had gone the Czech-Slovakia route. |
2010-02-23T22:32:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/22/the-living-lincoln/#comment-2889 |
| Thanks, everyone. I did have a recent bad example, but I'd rather not get into it. Let's just say that there's a right way to do everything. :-) | 2010-02-17T17:48:57+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/17/walk-and-talk/#comment-2841 |
| Thanks, everyone. I don't know exactly what will prove the most useful for everyone. I do want to be sure we have something that will ultimately be good for readers, not just writers. I'm sure we don't have it perfect, so there may have to be some tweaking. What I'm sure is that we have useful information for writers who want to improve their craft. Your work will be read by a professional and you'll know where you stand! |
2010-02-15T21:27:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/15/authorscope-know-where-you-stand/#comment-2828 |
| Thanks! It's more than just a business opportunity for me, it's a chance to really give something back to the world. I hope that the standards we're introducing are improved on but are then taken up by people around the world. The most important thing for writers has to be readers, and readers need to be willing to take some chances if we're going to have space in their heads for new writers. Some way of saying, "Go ahead, it's worth giving some of your time and $$$ to this author" might just be the kick-start that a whole new world of publishing needs. Like so many things, the technology only makes innovation possible. It's how we use it that matters in the end. I hope that Authorscope can be part of that new world. |
2010-02-15T16:40:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/15/authorscope-know-where-you-stand/#comment-2824 |
| Tony, Dale: I think that stories of people succeeding, especially against long odds, are always going to be popular. That's only natural because people like sucess and the sucessful. I'm focusing on the stories about problems because I'm trying to tie this back to something that still bothers me. Remember that many business leaders, economists, and government officials continue to insist the obviously incorrect position that no one saw this Depression coming. They seem to think that this is a reasonable position, too, as if there is no way to predict when things are going to go bad. In a highly specialized world where people have blinders on (as noted by Adam Smith), how do we increase communication across the various specialties and classes? I do believe that the lack of a common culture, which is to say a shorthand where everyone understands each other easily, is a root problem for many of the difficulties we have today. I tend to take the more liberal view that common culture has to be inclusive and adaptable, which makes creating and keeping such a thing a lot more difficult. But I'm sure that it starts with people being able to communicate across any divisions that crop up, and that means they have skills to tell their stories properly - and people want to listen to them. I'm actually trying to make a high degree of specialization palatable ... it's a bit of a change, I realize! | 2010-02-13T16:51:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/12/storytelling/#comment-2818 |
| Good criticism. I hate it when a story gets lost in the details, and I'm afraid that could easily happen here. What I didn't get into is that the person with the problem could have easily solved it by turning his adult son over to be a ward of the state - the cuts in question would not have affected them nearly as badly. The net expense to the state would have been higher had they not taken personal responsibility for their own son and remained his legal guardian. A different program, left uncut, would have taken up the slack - at greater overall cost to all of us. Those are just details, however. What mystifies me is how the simple stories of people are lost in the statistics - numbers which are manipulatable and always open to interpretation. We're not a species that understands our world entirely through cold numbers. Janine, you're right that I need more specific examples. To me, it's not a matter of getting government to do this or that, it's a matter of getting to know the problem. Captn Tony, it's not a matter of whether government should solve everything or not, it's a matter of knowing just what the problem is so that we can decide, intelligently, how we can best solve it - which may or may not involve government. There are always stories of real people that slip through the cracks. Real social change comes when those stories are told and connections are made. If people want to get together and solve those problems outside of government, all the better - but they have to hear the stories first. |
2010-02-12T16:53:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/12/storytelling/#comment-2808 |
| e.lee: Yes, the Rosenthal one is particularly bad on this chapter. I like to use it just because it's on the web (and very handy) but ... this time it's Wu for me. I have the Shambala edition of Le Guin's translation right in front of me. I'll put it here, reformatted to take up a little less space: Everybody on earth knowing that beauty is beautiful makes ugliness. Everybody knowing that goodness is good makes wickedness. For being and nonbeing arise together; hard and easy compliment each other; long and short shape each other; high and low depend on each other; note and voice make music together; before and after follow each other. That's why the wise soul does without doing, teaches without talking. The things of this world exist, you can't refuse them. To bear and not to own; to and and not lay claim; to do the work and let it go: for just letting it go is what makes it stay. |
2010-02-10T18:56:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/10/smallness/#comment-2794 |
| Janine: Only if you also consider the lillies. :-) If you want to make a case for a big dollup of Taoism making its way into the teachings of Jesus, that is a a topic I've deliberately stayed away from because I'm always afraid I won't do it justice. But I did cover it in "Downriver", if obliquely (as always). I have another translation of the same chapter that I can add if someone wants, this one by Ursula K. Le Guin. She worked a lot harder on making it accessible to a Western audience. |
2010-02-10T17:37:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/10/smallness/#comment-2791 |
| Bruce: I missed your point in the sense that I forgot to respond to the part I agreed with and went straight to the apologetic part. You are absolutely, spot-on right. While this Depression compares very well to 1893, the big difference is the level of support that we have and the relative wealth of most of society coming into it. Nothing really compares to the "Great Depression" of 1929, which really was "The Big One" and deserves to be called "Great". We don't have a lot to whine about, at least not in historical terms. Where I get sensitive is that ... well, we seem to whine a lot. It's serious, but we're dealing with a lot of things far better than we ever did before. I just want us to take the serious part a lot more seriously. Perhaps being grateful for how good it is might not be a bad start. From that perspective, I might look like a whiner, too. Don't want that to be out there, for sure. |
2010-02-09T17:53:42+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/#comment-2778 |
| If you look at the map I linked to (it's a polar map, so it takes some getting used to) it looks like it's more or less random - probably many things make it get the kinks and bulges into it. It's when the Jet Stream comes right off of Alaska that it seems to change the most. I can't say why that would be, however. Maybe we'll get lucky and a meterologist will pop by. |
2010-02-08T18:06:38+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/08/jet-stream/#comment-2774 |
| A brief PS: It's pretty bad in Saint Paul today. Why not just take a day off and enjoy it, if you can? Excuses this good don't come along every day. | 2010-02-08T14:38:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/08/jet-stream/#comment-2771 |
| You're right about the name, Bruce. I just want people to take this seriously and stop screwing around. When we were attacked, a certain group of people made it clear that they felt the rules of normal civil discussion had to be suspended because of the seriousness of the situation. Dissent was not welcome. I don't want us to go that far, but certainly playing around with the President's nominations to key positions is not consistent with a state of emergency. Blocking everything that comes your way just because you can - without adding to the debate - doesn't help one bit. I think Obama has done a much better job of conveying the seriousness lately, so I'm mostly satisfied. But I still smell denial out there. I want to add my part to, as civilly as possible, tell people to cut it out. That's all. |
2010-02-08T00:32:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/#comment-2768 |
| Janine: Eh,you're probably right. It's just that I've been on this for 2 years now, and it gets frustrating. It's like pushing on a rope. I have to press my advantage, tho. Angie: Yes, I saw it. I never understood all the violent, over the top language in most blogs. Still, if you want to do that for me, this is what I'd prefer: Erik Defenestrates Media on Depression Denial! Has a nice medieval ring to it, no? :-) |
2010-02-05T18:52:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/#comment-2748 |
| Thanks, everyone. Especially Anna with the great link from MNspeak. :-) Dan, you're right that at some point cities (especially) will be re-engineered. I've gone on and on about the way we designed our "Downtown" regions for offices - something that probably won't be necessary in the future. So what will replace them? Saint Paul is better on residential, which ... well, it seems as though there's a lot more to it than that. Rather than plan the heck out of everything, I'm more concerned that we have the right elements in place to allow a free market to do its thang. That takes a little more thought. I'll think it over. |
2010-02-05T17:48:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/#comment-2745 |
| Luis: You can file what's called a "World Patent". There is some reason it's not desirable, but I can't remember what it is. 3M never went this route. It's based on agreements between a lot of nations. If you want to file a Euro patent, the big hurdle IMHO was writing the description in English, French AND German. They have to match! For one of my patents that I handled myself I was fortunate enough to have on the team a guy in Antwerp who did the French, and my German was checked by someone in in our Bavaria location. THEN, and only then, was it shipped to our multi-lingual lawyer in Brussels! If it wasn't with a big company, there's no way I could have gotten it together. There was a real lack of fun in the whole process. :-) I can imagine a person writing a patent on their own in the US, but you have to be fearless and dedicated. Compare this with how we do copyrights for songs, which is to say that you put a li'l (c) at the bottom of your score with the date and vióla! Granted, the two are not comparable, but when you think about how long the copyrights last compared with 20 years on a patent, it really starts to look like we have our priorities a bit .... well, at least strange. |
2010-02-04T17:34:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/03/patently-absurd/#comment-2715 |
| Molly: Thanks for the correction. I wasn't aware that they had incentive to reject patents. Perhaps I just have really high standards, but I've seen a few that I didn't think deserved to be issued. I feel better about things now. It's good to have an expert / insider in the field correcting me! :-) Anna: I can't imagine getting startup capital right now. If you could tell us some more about the status of Angels, et cetera, I'd appreciate it. I am going to be working with someone on a strategic plan for leveraging a good idea into some real money, so I do have a personal interest. All I can think right now is to play this as some kind of poker game. Ug. |
2010-02-04T15:53:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/03/patently-absurd/#comment-2709 |
| I don't know why no one has ever given the USPTO the resources it needs. It's been this way for a long time, as far as I know. It's one of those things that never makes the radar, for whatever reason. I can tell you that in the absence of careful review, I sometimes have the feeling that they approve just about everything that doesn't have obvious mistakes, with the understanding that if there is a conflict it'll be up to the lawyers to sort it out in court. So if anyone benefits from the current situation, it's lawyers. Go figger. |
2010-02-04T01:57:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/03/patently-absurd/#comment-2704 |
| Thanks, everyone. I agree with Molly that the best thing the Feds can do is properly fund the USPTO and work off the backlog. After that, some kind of office that helps people get over the hurdles would be just heavenly (but I'm not holding my breath). Annalise, you make an excellent point that this isn't as big a deal with "soft tech" like computers. We've given one area of research a big advantage over others with all these barriers to entry. It's something to think about. |
2010-02-03T18:20:57+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/03/patently-absurd/#comment-2700 |
| NOTE: This has been revised for inclusion in the Internet Writing Guide. Please follow this link: Impact Journalism Thank you! | 2010-02-02T00:21:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/02/impact-journalism/#comment-2689 |
| Thanks, everyone. We don't know more about him because he was kept out of the public eye in Tuskeegee Institute. He was brilliant, but also rather openly effeminate. At Tuskeegee he had nearly complete freedom, including an active gay lifestyle with a committed partner - but outside of that, he would have had problems (and possibly have been an embarrassment to the college and his race). He did get out more late in life, mostly at the urging of his admirer Henry Ford. The "chemurgy" movement was something he helped champion, and I'll write about that later on (when I think I know what the story is!). A truly great man who helped a lot of people. He was a true problem solver, a man of both great vision and good ears! :-) |
2010-02-01T20:36:44+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/01/george-washington-carver/#comment-2687 |
| Thanks, everyone. Anna and Jim, you're right. Long term isn't two daze. Dan: I hope that's all it was. I'd like to see him out there a bit more, not on a continuous campaign, but when he speaks things do calm down. That's the real reason I want more. I didn't talk about this right away because in politics taking a stand is one thing but the reaction is another. One thing that is very clear to me - the right has chilled bigtime. During the address, the live tweets I saw from righties were ... well, silly at best. They would criticize Obama for how he ordered breakfast. Afterwards? The focus on jobs has become a game-changer, I think. It's populist, but not in the "out for blood" way that the base is used to. The noise level has gone way, way down. That is, to my mind, THE GOAL for Democrats - to keep the noise level a lot lower. It's also what our nation needs, IMHO. Let's see if it can hold. |
2010-01-29T17:26:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/29/state-of-the-union-serious/#comment-2671 |
| As of now, they want "experts". Not Taoists. :-) | 2010-01-27T22:32:43+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/27/expert-opinion/#comment-2649 |
| Thanks, everyone. It seems to me that the standards of "objectivity" always wind up being the central issue. The old idea was that you line up two (usually exactly two) "experts" and let them battle it out. But the choice of "experts" is, inherently, the place where journalism inserts itself into the situation - whether it's honest about that or not. I guess I agree that this wasn't always the best way to do things, but in the old daze perhaps it was all that could be done. We don't have to worry about that anymore. People can, and do, find their own sources of information all the time. The problem is, as Scott Adams explained, that the stream of information coming at us is like a firehose aimed at a teacup. That brings it back to context. Ditching "objectivity" doesn't mean we should have no standards - it means we replace it with something better. It seems to me that "experts" are one of the first things to go. |
2010-01-27T18:20:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/27/expert-opinion/#comment-2647 |
| I didn't link to this piece, but I still think it's one of my best; http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/04/13/specialists/ To me, this highlights the central problem. We believe in a lot of things, including specialization and the role of "experts", without understanding what that does to our civil obligations. |
2010-01-26T01:41:38+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/25/starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-2632 |
| I should explain a little. This started as an argument with my kids who, along with many people of their generation, seem to think that the advance of technology is an unquestionable "good". It struck me as strange given that we're working our way through old Twilight Zone episodes where there are many stories about how technology can be dangerous. I had a feeling that they, and their generation, didn't get the idea that there could be a problem here. Ultimately, yes, the consumption of resources way beyond anything sustainable is the real issue. What's weird about the belief in tech is that it seems to be based on the idea that we are post-manufacturing - which is to say that it's not about consuming resources anymore but pure brain power. I totally agree that this is the real issue at hand. But there's a real fundamental belief at the core of why we find it easy to ignore this problem - and never really talk about it - that I find even more troubling. I was going to start another long series today on this topic, but this came out instead. Call it a rant if you want, but I'm trying to get at a root problem before I work forward. Things seemed to have changed about the time Reagen became president and we haven't looked back. Consumption became good because it justified a popular belief in how economies operate. I would like to think that this belief has been shown to at the very least be limited. I'm just trying to raise my kids to be properly critical of conventional wisdom. I had this dark, ooky feeling that there's something deep at the core of how we got where we are that makes it really hard to talk about the reality of our situation - which is that we are living in a cloudy unsustainable bubble that hasn't yet popped. |
2010-01-25T18:40:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/25/starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-2630 |
| Sorry, Janine, but this one has been around for a while and it's gonna be around a while yet. I'm laying the foundation for some arguments that I know I'll be making when Minnesota's own Governor race heats up. :-) Jim, I still stand by what I said about anger about the lack of reality - and even noted it here. But this was closer than most people portray it, and Dems aren't going to do themselves any good with the usual routine that goes with a loss like this. But there are things we can learn - if we want to go forward. Let's be "progressives" and move ahead, learning from our mistakes. |
2010-01-22T16:55:37+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/22/different-roles/#comment-2610 |
| I think what it comes down to is that we had to stabilize the system long enough to buy us some time. That's what Keynsianism does, ultimately - buy you enough time to make the inevitable Restructuring less painful. It is not, however, a permanent solution. Right now it is being treated as if it is one, however. We've had negative economic growth in the economy as a whole since 2001 - once you subtract out the Federal deficits that have been with us for a decade. That's the time we successfully bought, but we have been squandering it. I'm afraid that we can't buy much more time. Call what's going on "socialism" or anything you want, but it's hard to call it "sustainable" at the very least. I think that the bailout was inevitable, but it had to be seen as a temporary solution. Long term? Make it into a kind of insurance program, to pay it back, and figure out what made the economy fail in the first place. Anything less ignores the reality of this stituation, and I'm arguing that's exactly what we are doing. I'm also arguing that while people may not understand the details of what needs to be done, they sure seem to understand that we're ignoring reality. If the "leaders" don't get a handle on things populism will throw its support behind any number of potential solutions that sound good but aren't really any more sensible than what we're trying. That's when it gets a lot worse - and even more angry. |
2010-01-20T21:13:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/20/and-statistics/#comment-2592 |
| What I think it comes down to is that the leadership we have thinks they can manage their way out of the situation. All they seem to want to do is to make the numbers look good, like any middle-range bureaucrat would do - and since numbers don't lie, the situation must be good. Right? The problem comes when everyone starts to believe their own BS. That's not just a problem in Washingtoon, that's a problem just about everywhere. Thing is that just enough people seem to realize that no one really understands what is really going on and they're angry about it. Why shouldn't they be? If you want to lead, the first thing you have to have is a firm grasp on reality. Without a good map of where you are you can't go anywhere. |
2010-01-20T16:42:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/20/and-statistics/#comment-2588 |
| I don't mean to dwell on the irresponsible comments made by one person. At the very least, I was heartened by the fact that they were roundly criticized by many, many people. However, I want people to understand why my daughter at times sees Christianity as a loathsome religion that attracts the very worst elements of indecency and hatred. I have taken it as my mission to show her what is in the Bible and how people who say these awful things clearly have not read the book - or at least never taken it to heart. This always winds up being a small act of rebellion on my part, teaching my daughter such subversive ideas. The truth, it seems, has taken on a very subversive quality. I think that on Martin Luther King Day we should make this clear. This is a day for a higher calling and service. Truth, Justice, and Decency should never be this subversive. |
2010-01-18T18:22:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/18/dr-king/#comment-2574 |
| Dan, that sounds like a good recommendation. It's really easy to see how we've lost our way when we get a chance to contrast our culture with another one. Maybe that's why so many people are fearful of other cultures! | 2010-01-18T16:26:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/15/popular-front/#comment-2571 |
| I'm with you, Dan. I still say that banking should be boring - every time someone comes up with an exciting new idea in banking, saving, or investing there's probably something that was overlooked in the process. It sure seems to work out that way. I feel old just for suggesting that the way out is some kind of insurance system, after all. Maybe I am old. |
2010-01-15T17:22:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/15/popular-front/#comment-2562 |
| Jim, the Dodd Bill is being written by a series of bi-partisan sub-committees that Dodd is overseeing (still love that word, "oversee"!). We do not have any solid details yet. The complex financial ovisight (ha!) system proposed by Obama hasn't really gotten anywhere yet. I agree that a real threat of serious regulation of the old-fashioned "nothing will happen" style is not a bad idea right now. The problem is that banks clearly think that they can head off something like that by getting their buddies to whine about "socialism" again. The politics has to change to the point where they believe that there is a real credible threat, and I think the best way to do that is to get way out in front of the politics and get seriously populist. I hope that happens - and I hope that a sense of pragmatism helps keep it all real. Yes, I know that's a lot to ask, believe me! |
2010-01-15T16:42:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/15/popular-front/#comment-2560 |
| I'm just terribly saddened by all of this. It always manages to get worse in Haiti. I wish people in the US understood what it means to face adversity with dignity and get done what needs to get done. | 2010-01-14T17:12:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/13/haiti/#comment-2545 |
| You got me. I might be pushing it a bit, but the more I think about this topic the more I'm convinced that there are some deep roots that deserve exploration. I was also thinking about the big "Chariots of the God" and Bermuda Triangle fascination in the 70s, but I chose to leave that out. I call it "art", others might want to call it "popular culture". Hey, the advise each other. And all that other stuff like ... well, eventually politics, too. If I didn't push it in this humble li'l blog, where would things get pushed? :-) |
2010-01-12T03:27:09+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/11/act-of-destruction/#comment-2537 |
| Yes, you're both right. I'm being vague because I don't know if I'm thinking this through very well, but it seems to me that we're a long way off from a good counter to the Popular Doom - or any other reaction to feelings of powerlessness. So why not just deal with it? | 2010-01-11T18:24:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/11/act-of-destruction/#comment-2533 |
| I don't know why this isn't taught more widely. This isn't the only cause of our strange spelling - some of it came naturally, over time. But this is the biggest problem English faced. | 2010-01-08T22:01:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/08/the-great-vowel-shift/#comment-2522 |
| Dan: I see what you mean about health care, but it didn't quite get done in the decade, did it? :-) I'm also still not sure what we have, and I do tend to take Howard Dean's side on this. Since it's not done and we don't know what the final product will look like, I'm not going to be too hopeful. I still have to respond to Mitch's excellent post on that thread, which made me think. Good perspective, hate to have him think I ignored it. Jim: I've often said that no one knows what's going on and that we believe our own BS far too often. That's a related phenom, I think, but a bit different - it includes a touch of arrogance, don't you think? Perhaps that's just one of the many ways to respond to feeling totally out of control, kind of like the slow kid at school who compensates by being the bully. I'm hoping someone will be able to offer something a bit more complicated or ... I dunno, less child-like? The idea that most of what's going on politically, socially, and culturally is just a lashing out based on powerlessness seems far to simple, but it also seems to work far too well for my comfort. I'm thinking about it, too, Janine, but I'd like your help! :-) |
2010-01-06T20:24:15+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/06/happier-time/#comment-2507 |
| Thanks. I am looking for someone to challenge me on this because it's a bit of a leap - but if this is a major force in our politics today we have a big problem. It's hard to call yourself a Democracy when people are primarily reacting to a feeling of powerlessness. I think I should have also linked to this bit on how we've become very suspicious of organizing in general: Retelling the Reality I think that, if what I'm getting at really is an important force, we have a LOT of work to do. If my more conservative brothers and sisters are worried about this not being the America they grew up in, I want them to know that I agree on a very base level, allbeit for very different reasons, so we have something to talk about. | 2010-01-06T15:34:35+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/06/happier-time/#comment-2502 |
| Janine, that's another old post: Anything is Possible (let me know when whipping out a previous post to explain nearly anything gets really annoying!) | 2010-01-04T19:52:35+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/04/popular-doom/#comment-2493 |
| Dan, you're on to something. I wasn't sure what to say about it, but we have a real tendency towards this "adventist" thinking. When it's come around in waves like this, big things either happen or are in the process of happening (I'm not sure which yet). I like the idea of helplessness being the root of all this, too - it could explain all of my theories at the same time! I should have linked back to this post: Learned Helplessness Whatever it is, I'd really like to see actual "history" on the History Channel. I'm sick of all the doooooom. | 2010-01-04T18:12:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/04/popular-doom/#comment-2488 |
| Happy New Year! I don't have much in the way of plans, except that I'm trying to get more work as a Chemical Engineer / Tech Writer. I do think that'll be my greatest strength in the long run, even though it's hard to break into. What is everyone else going to try to do differently, resolutions or not? How is your own life restructuring? |
2010-01-01T18:26:27+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/01/happy-new-year/#comment-2478 |
| I'm afraid I don't understand. How did I feel in 2005? About the same as today - that neither the left nor the right had anything relevant to say about the important choices facing Americans. I had some faith that the generational change that embodied the Obama campaign might produce something more relevant, but so far it hasn't. So it's all very much the same, despite the obvious fact that the world has changed rather dramatically. | 2009-12-31T00:50:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/30/a-lost-decade/#comment-2472 |
| Dan, I'm always more interested in disagreements than anything else! It's more fun that way. | 2009-12-30T21:26:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/30/a-lost-decade/#comment-2470 |
| There may be a lot of "near-self-antonyms" after all. But "terrify" and "terrier" are about the same (just kidding - "terrier" comes from "terra" or "earth dog"!). Thanks! |
2009-12-28T23:34:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/28/gung-ho/#comment-2450 |
| I didn't get into the origin of "fast" to mean "go without food", but it appears to be the same as "fixed" - "strong" or "firm". It's also very old, appearing to predate written records. "Oversee" remains my favorite of this type of word, however, because it makes for good puns at the expense of Congress (itself the antonym of "progress", if you read it right). |
2009-12-28T16:33:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/28/gung-ho/#comment-2448 |
| Thanks, everyone. Merry Christmas! Maybe I'll be looking for my own Christmas miracle soon if I don't find some work. But it's good to know I have friends here. I do appreciate it more than I can say! Thank you all, again, and many times more! |
2009-12-25T22:24:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/25/its-a-wonderful-life/#comment-2436 |
| Maybe it all stops when we say it stops, and we get to say when that is? Sorry, just had to get all Taoist there .... :-) | 2009-12-23T18:22:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/23/in-motion/#comment-2422 |
| I did read Keillor's piece, and I guess I agree with him (but I'd say it a lot nicer than that!). Christmas is for Christians, as far as I'm concerned. I don't see why it has to be any other way. The Amish go off and have their own way of doing things without bothering anyone, so why not other religions? Here's a link to what the big lug had to say: http://www.salon.com/opinion/keillor/2009/12/15/cambridge/index.html |
2009-12-21T18:53:27+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/21/winter-solstice/#comment-2412 |
| Wow - that's a few pointed comments! I didn't think this would be so hot. You know, I do pull my punches at times - guilty as charged. I'm tying to get a new perspective out into the world, and I always believe that it's going to help get it repeated if I'm not pointing fingers in any one direction. That may be wrong. Besides, if you knew me in real life you'd all know I'm a LOT more blunt about things like this. And that I get myself into trouble by saying offensive things nearly constantly. As a writer, I do moderate myself rather dramatically. I do not believe that the mainstream media is deliberately trying to make us stupid, but I do think that (like me!) they would rather not offend anyone because their advertisers would be upset. Fox News is not, by most accounts, making money for Rupert Murdoch so I can't say that their big experiment with slanted coverage has been a success, either - and that's not lost on the industry. I do think that someone has to provide more context if we're going to make sense of the world. That, to me, is a matter of understanding how things are connected - which will require new perspectives and a LOT of explanation of context. The noise that has to be turned down from 11 to get that word out is a serious problem. If I never hear the word "mashup" again - or never see another of these exercises in ripping life out of context - I will be happy. I'll even fault the otherwise brilliant "Daily Show" for being a major force driving this exercise, too. Let's just all cut it out and demand more from ourselves, our politicos, and our media. I'll be more blunt now that I've described the problem and you guys seem to be on it, OK? |
2009-12-18T18:29:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/18/context/#comment-2402 |
| Thanks, everyone. Yes, Jim, I got someone else to tell my story. Paul is doing a series on the need for engineering jobs over at MinnEcon (MPR) and I just had to put my few pennies in. Who knows, perhaps it will lead to employment? :-) Meanwhile, how 'bout them Vikings? :-) |
2009-12-16T15:58:47+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/16/upon-the-turf-at-metrodome/#comment-2387 |
| Thanks, T. I stopped counting a long time ago, too. As far as the Oh-fish-eye-al records are, there's no difference between me having a good month, a bad month, or a totally awful no-work-for-you month. Those of us who make our own way are kind of invisible. |
2009-12-15T23:49:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/14/cookies-for-santa/#comment-2382 |
| Dale: I totally agree with you, and I usually use U6 as the more accurate number. We should also point out that the gap between U6 and the headline U3 is usually only 4-5%, but it's at 7.5% now - showing that not only are we leaving many people out of the picture, we're leaving far more than usual because of the nature of this Depression. Furthermore, the numbers we're dealing with show this to be a similar Depression to the one from 1893-1902. That took about 9 years to absorb all the workers, and ours is likely to take just as long unless we do something about it. I wrote about some of this here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/11/23/deliverance/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/first-job/ This is likely to wind up as a "lost decade" if we don't get serious about job creation. I still think that the basic overhead per employee is the most obvious (and cheapest) place to start looking at the problem. |
2009-12-14T20:10:31+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/14/cookies-for-santa/#comment-2378 |
| The numbers have nearly always been cooked - certainly, GDP growth never looked at the Federal Deficit, and the unemployment numbers have gradually become stupider with each administration. But these have always been relatively small effects. As we go into serious meltdown, what were once small tweaks to make things look good are now very big problems. We've long had a problem with people disappearing, in an official sense, it's just getting worse. I couldn't work this piece into the Christmas Cookies theme: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/06/17/desaparecidos/ |
2009-12-14T14:42:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/14/cookies-for-santa/#comment-2376 |
| Magnus: We are, I think, still a kind of Calvinist nation at heart. I don't understand it either. I'm more of a card player, myself. I happen to think it is luck and skill, too. Perhaps there are more of us than I thought? |
2009-12-11T18:12:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/11/new-deal/#comment-2361 |
| Funny stuff. Today is a bit better - colder, but less wind. Maybe we can enjoy it now? | 2009-12-10T16:28:29+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/09/first-big-snow/#comment-2344 |
| I have to agree, I'm not having a lot of fun here today, either. Oh well, it's the price of living here in Minnesota! Wait, what's the payoff for this? :-) |
2009-12-09T20:43:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/09/first-big-snow/#comment-2340 |
| Jim, I hear you. I've had a lot of conversations with people about Iraq where I conclude with "no one has any idea what they are doing". It doesn't go down well, but I think it's true. The same can be said for nearly everything, IMHO. I think the other comments said it best - we just don't care. Our military can do a lot, but it can't do everything. I think it's terribly unfair to even ask them, too, especially with their own lives in harm's way. They, and we, need to demand that the rest of our government do its job before we ask such sacrifices. |
2009-12-08T15:49:00+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/07/afghanistan/#comment-2335 |
| Thanks, everyone. I thought I'd let this one ramble a bit because the lack of clarity in the situation is the real issue. To people like me, and most of you, how we feel about this issue is an extrapolation from our own personal experience and nothing more. I don't have anything that lets me evaluate this situation in any kind of real way that matters. What do people in Afghanistan want? I'll probably never know. Unless I think our policy makers have a clue, they'll probably not be too successful in creating a stable government, either. That's about all I can know about the situation. What to do about it? Another problem, entirely. |
2009-12-07T18:41:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/07/afghanistan/#comment-2330 |
| yearzero: Thank you. You are absolutely right when you say that the metaphors have all played out. Playing with language seems even more obvious when languages other than English are bearing down on us like never before, but instead we've all hidden like cowards. Our mythologies should be getting richer, but instead they are shrinking. It is pathetic. Ron: It's what I call "Waiting for Steinbeck". The theory is that a Depression will take down the New York establishment that gleefully divorced itself from reality (seeking a hedonistic single life) and begin again with serious writers who find a cheap way to ply their craft themselves. I outline it here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/paperback/ One way to answer Carr's piece, excerpted above, is to say that while a new generation is about to rise to the challenge, it isn't likely to be in New York. When I talk about a culture "retracing its steps", in Carr's case we could take it literally - he's from Minnesota. Times like this call for decentralization and real empowerment. The result might be the next Steinbeck, if we play it right. |
2009-12-05T23:35:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/04/illusions/#comment-2322 |
| John, that's why I write - to change as many minds as possible. I don't begrudge people going for something new when the writers weren't doing a good job. Twilight Zone, for example, is 50 years old - quality like that hasn't been seen since. Well, maybe on "Star Trek". :-) Before the writers gave up or lost control entirely, we had nothing but formulaic sit-coms and movies that have numbers in the title. It's been a long time since quality writing dominated the entertainment world, IMHO. I don't think we know just what people will do when they see it again. Same goes for journalism as well. I'm talking about the lack of reality in ALL media, across the board, whether it's supposed to be true or not. Our concepts of "real" and not are so mixed up that the various kinds of media are pretty well mixed, too. It's a bad mess. |
2009-12-04T19:54:15+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/04/illusions/#comment-2318 |
| Thank you everyone. I hope that this doesn't leave you depressed, unless you have the boreal ability to enjoy depression. I was working on a seasonally chilly tone but I'm not sure if I got it right or not. It's a writing skill thing, my own attempt at showing, not telling. Are words still powerful? Rather than insist that there is sstill a place for writers, I hope I made the case on its own merits. Yes, Jim, people will still get crap if they buy crap. But what if there's also a market for quality? |
2009-12-04T15:32:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/04/illusions/#comment-2316 |
| John, the context of all of this is to encourage quality writing in general, so given a general interest in increasing the skills of people, does it seem more reasonable? The talk I heard was done by the people who are pioneers in the field, and professionals, so for them I don't think your concerns are an issue. I'd like everyone to see this as a tool for empowerment, which as I've said before depends on quality - citizens need to have their act together if they are going to effectively speak truth to power. That's what it's all about. |
2009-12-02T21:58:17+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/02/impact-journalism/#comment-2304 |
| Jim, you're right in the sense that I don't think that everyone doing this all the time is a good idea. There's a balance here. This is a useful tool, which is to say that journalists shouldn't always look like useful tools. Does that make sense? We're all just figuring this out as we go. |
2009-12-02T18:53:56+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/02/impact-journalism/#comment-2301 |
| I'm going to give a lot of thought to how I tie all this together. Thank you all for your suggestions, it really does help a lot. None of this would be at all interesting or valuable without you! | 2009-11-30T22:11:29+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/30/blank-slate/#comment-2292 |
| Jim: You might be right. I'm open to suggestions. Janine: Yes, I am assembling these into one collection that can serve as a guide. I'm serious about promoting quality in writing, and I think that a useful "how-to" has yet to be written. I hope to be the one to put it together first. Your help is very important to making it useful! |
2009-11-30T16:23:24+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/30/blank-slate/#comment-2288 |
| I don't know if people really ignore outstate, but they sure do ignore poverty on average. There are very different needs up in Bemidji than we have in Saint Paul, which really only figures. But there are always people who need a little help, everywhere you look. As they grow in number, perhaps there might even be enough to make a real movement - assuming we can get past the isolation that defines so much of it. | 2009-11-27T22:52:04+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/27/outstate/#comment-2276 |
| Rascal: I left this piece out because I thought it was straying a bit from my point. Perhaps you might have thought that it strengthened an appreciation of the holiday. I'll leave it here as a footnote: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/07/21/truth-of-the-cottonwoods/ |
2009-11-25T15:21:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/25/thanksgiving-2/#comment-2267 |
| Janine: We'll get real. One way or another, this has to sink in. It's been a solid year since I called for a new WPA, and I hear other "mainstream" politicians and "exerts" finally joining in that. The unemployment among youth alone has to be chilling. It is true that the Free Market appears to be good for the rest of us but not for the rich - how did we allow that to happen? Anders: Thank you. We will do our part. I keep thinking of the line from Casablanca: Rick: Sam, if it's December 1941 in Casablanca, what time is it in New York? Sam: Uh, my watch stopped. Rick: I'll be they're asleep in New York. I'll bet they're asleep all over America. (pounds table with fist) Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she had to walk into mine! This time, "she" isn't war, she's something far less romantic. "She" is Reality, the need to work together to solve our problems for the good of everyone. We may not like it, but we'll do our part. Eventually. |
2009-11-23T15:42:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/23/deliverance/#comment-2257 |
| Walter: I meant month! I do this often. I'm going to correct it with a strikeout so people can see how I screwed up. Dan: Yes, that's very true. It's the disconnect with reality that is so bizarre. I honestly think that if we dealt with this problem it wouldn't be so bad - we do have a kind of "free will" to use the Puritan analogy too much. But we just won't get real about it. |
2009-11-23T14:50:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/23/deliverance/#comment-2252 |
| Anna, you're right. I have a "topic drift" problem here. The solution is to separate the two a little bit, or at least make note of position / issue advocacy (which is what I usually do!) and organizing. I guess I felt a little sheepish talking about advocacy without doing something, even if it's what most of this blog winds up being. Mea culpa! |
2009-11-21T22:43:42+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/20/convincing/#comment-2235 |
| The best thing to do with "venting" is to ignore it. This is the second best, which is to try to show people a better way. Call me an idealist if you want, but people can learn how to convince each other and accomplish great things - if they get over themselves, that is. | 2009-11-20T15:27:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/20/convincing/#comment-2232 |
| Thank you everyone. I thought I would have offended someone with this post, but I think offended people don't usually leave comments. The bottom line, for me, is what Jim said - we're just human. Get over it. I really do not like Palin's politics one bit, but she deserved better. The big storm that Newsweek was writing about is only starting, but it was completely preventable. If you don't think that she deserved better just for being human, then consider how little of this noise we'd have if they had seen to make sure that the Veepstakes wasn't a net loser for her and her family. This is poor politics, but it starts with a lack of basic decency. |
2009-11-18T14:47:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/18/sarah-palin/#comment-2193 |
| Can't we practice artful politics? It's worth noting that the St Cloud Chamber of Commerce did not endorse Pawlenty in 2006 (or was it 2002?) because of his opposition to Northstar. A very conservative group took a stand in favor of expanding transit their way because they knew they needed it. The line was built. Washington County, which would be served by Red Rock, also wants to be part of the transit world, but they are being ignored - I say the first party to stand up for them gets the edge in an otherwise very competitive part of the Metro. How's that for politics? |
2009-11-16T15:16:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/16/northstar/#comment-2183 |
| Annalise: Northstar and Red Rock are trains that operate on existing rail lines, so they can only run a few hours a day. That's why they are called "Commuter Rail". I listed them as scalable experiments because in many cases they can be used to put in something cheap that proves the basic idea, and then expanded on their own track to run all day. This happens a lot. As it stands now, it would roughly replace the 94 bus that has about 9k people per day commute only - the 5800 seems pretty conservative. There is plenty of room in the BN corridor to expand the Red Rock to an all-day service, but I like the idea of proving its worth first. If we can justify the stations, etc with just the commuter traffic, the expansion becomes easy. There's also usually a lot of political will formed by grassroots movements once this happens, so it' gets around the politics nicely. Why is the Central Corridor number so large? Right now, about 25k people per day ride the 16 and 50 on University. The idea is to replace roughly 1/3 of the 16, all of the 50, and all of the 94 express with LRT. That's how they get the numbers up - by reducing overall service, especially on the express commuter bus. What I am advocating is a system that is based on understanding the needs of people, not any particular line here or there. The Red Rock works in that framework, so I use it as an example. I would never say, "This line over another" until we know where the real needs are - and where people are advocating for real improvements. I mentioned Snelling because we need to understand the needs much better than we do. |
2009-11-16T14:49:35+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/16/northstar/#comment-2181 |
| Thanks, everyone. I expect to get a lot of incoming fire over this one. But it's the truth. I didn't bother to get too far into the Red Rock because the reports are online, but follow the links. The Parsons Group did an excellent job, but they were out-of-town experts that were too easy to dismiss. Very sad. But they have a history of getting projects done on time and under budget. | 2009-11-16T13:52:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/16/northstar/#comment-2179 |
| I think it would be a bit much to have a national hissy fit over whether or not it's appropriate to have, say, a Jimi Hendrick $10 bill. It is true that we love diversions like this which are otherwise meaningless. But ... I can't help but think that we have so many people that deserve to be immortalized in our wallets at least as much as Jackson, for example. George Washington Carver, anyone? | 2009-11-13T15:15:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/13/currency/#comment-2150 |
| I really thought this would be a fun topic (for a change) and you guys are getting all practical on me. I'm disappointed, really. Harumph! True story I didn't wind up using in this piece: When I was a kid, I was near Tallulah (sp?) Gorge in Georgia at a small store. There was a sign up that read, "We do not accept $50 Bills. Please respect our Southern Heritage." Oh-Kaaaay ... |
2009-11-13T14:08:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/13/currency/#comment-2147 |
| Jim: This sounds like something that might get me some work. Perhaps it's worth doing - I was surprised to find how little there is on style guides for citizen journalists - or how much difference of opinion there is on we writing. Annalise: I'll get into that later, I think. The idea is to put the reader into the moment so that they can better make up their own mind. Read the post on Unity and you'll see how a writer's job is one of editing the world, so it does require more explanation. |
2009-11-12T00:20:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/11/quality/#comment-2135 |
| Bruce: The word "wrong" is the big issue here. There is a time and a place for nearly everything. In the context of journalism, subject-verb-object in short, punchy sentences is easier to digest quickly. You give a context where a different construction is more accurate, and I accept that. I've written a few patents and used that construction heavily myself (though it hurts my brain after a while). I wish I had taken on the whole subject differently, but I'll let my errors stand with these comments attached for posterity. This is one of these things where perspective makes all the difference, so setting that up appropriately would make my effort more accurate without stepping all over your situation. You are right, but the topic requires better explanation than I or anyone else usually gives the subject. For the rest of you, Bruce probably knows more about Eastern European languages (Slavic plus German) than anyone else I've ever met. I hope you can see why I'm not going to argue with him about language and usage in general. :-) He's always got a good point to make on the subject. |
2009-11-11T18:37:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/11/quality/#comment-2121 |
| Bruce: What you're telling me is that my writing coach is wrong. Well ... that isn't setting well with me, but I'm going to take some time and dig into it because you tend to know language and useage. But we both agree that that what I presented is incorrect. Passives, as you describe them, are useful, but harder to scan quickly - what I should have emphasized is that people tend to scan articles and yank out highlights, which is why short, active sentences work well. That is, the last sentence doesn't work. Whatever. This was my first pass at this - if anyone wants me to go further with it I see a big edit. I must explain WHY certain forms are better than others, and ideally check the labels properly. OK? :-) |
2009-11-11T17:33:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/11/quality/#comment-2119 |
| Dan, Cristy: Thanks for bringing this back to the connection between raising the next generation and the state of the economy. Tying up those loose ends is a lot of what this article is about. When we talk about a "culture", we have to look at all the things that make us who we are - and why we have the attitudes we do. The first real work we have is a huge part of how we view our "professional" lives. As someone who has said many times that we are at a kind of cultural dead-end where we either retrace our steps or die, I think the lack of adequate opportunity for the tremendous energy we have right now is a serious problem. It's also rarely talked about, which makes it worse. On an individual basis, we all know in our guts how important this is. We all want our kids to have the right kind of attitude and to know that hard work has its rewards. On a cultural level, that may be either untrue or just some kind of fairytale from daze gone by. That kind of disconnect is scary as all Hell, IMHO. I really think that the generational changes we are seeing in this nation and this culture are not being adequately discussed, at least not in the right frames right now. The biggest story of our lives might be passing in front of us untold. That would mean we're too passive to retrace our steps and content to just let our culture die. I really hope I'm wrong, but in my guts I doubt it. |
2009-11-10T16:53:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/09/first-job/#comment-2111 |
| I don't know why a big deal hasn't been made of this, either. I heard about it first from a friend, who almost certainly heard about it from some news outlet, so it has been out there. But it hasn't been widely discussed. | 2009-11-09T18:28:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/09/first-job/#comment-2095 |
| Paul: One of FDR's famous lines was, after meeting people who were lobbying him, "You've convinced me. Now go out and put pressure on me." It seems a little cowardly if you read it wrong, but FDR knew what it meant to be an electoral leader. I wrote about this before, after seeing it in Obama: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/late-night-politics/ |
2009-11-07T00:09:56+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/06/retelling-the-reality/#comment-2069 |
| It very much occurred to me, Tamara. I've met many people who support it, but most were not immediately affected. Most of them support the idea of transit without knowing any of the details of this project, too. I see this as a situation where ideas are considered more important than people and a very good example of the "let experts handle it" thinking that is terribly afraid of organizing to make things happen on the ground. The "experts" always have their own agenda. The people who are affected need their own representation. They invariably have to create that on their own, but may lack some of the skills to make it happen. That's what organizing is all about. Why is everyone so terribly afraid of that? |
2009-11-06T14:12:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/06/retelling-the-reality/#comment-2063 |
| Bruce, excellent point. The challenge is demographic, yes, but the inability to deal with it comes from being autocrats who are grossly out of touch. That is the real issue to the people in the streets. That's why I hate getting too far away from the central point (which is that there's apparently a peak in the population) in less than 800 words - something has to be left out. |
2009-11-05T20:39:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/04/demographic-destiny/#comment-2036 |
| That's a reasonable suspicion, but I have to assure you that you can trust the Economist. It may be a free market mag, but it's very reasonable. I wish I had saved their free-market analysis as to why minimum wage laws are actually quite useful, for example. The Economist is far from a propaganda rag. In fact, I reccommend that everyone read it - and if you disagree with something they say, it's a good idea to know exactly why. | 2009-11-05T18:27:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/04/demographic-destiny/#comment-2032 |
| You're right, this is a big deal, and I only dealt with the immediate aspects of this - the turmoil we see now as big hunks of the world change-over on a generational basis. There's only so much room in a blog entry! But consider for a moment sustainable agriculture, which does indeed produce less per unit of land than the strip-mining methods in the short run. One argument against pushing sustainable ag was that the world was outstripping the food supply. Now that we know where we top out, we can start thinking about how we can manage that population sustainably and stop arguing the issue. Consider also the prospect of including in sustainable crop rotations some grasses that are more or less fallow but produce material that can be used for fuels. That's also possibly part of the equation if you don't worry about starving people out. There's a lot more, including a potentially stable world with less disparity between people in terms of material possessions and all. But for all the places this analysis can go, each one is big enough to deserve its own essay. Wow. |
2009-11-04T15:42:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/04/demographic-destiny/#comment-2029 |
| Dan: Yes, I guess I did! That topic is how it seems to me that politics has become so much more about ideas rather than people, which is to say that people care more about intellectual concepts, procedures, and ideas about "fairness" or "values" than they do about the real wealth and health of citizens. I use IRV as a good example of this, but the "idea" of the Central Corridor versus the realities of Urban Removal is another good example. People support an idea, not a reality. It's a strange disconnect that I've written tangentially about to give grounding to the main idea. Alas, it's still hard to write about well. People don't understand what I mean because this is a problem that is far too ingrained. The reason why it might take bad words is that we really have to go to the gut level on this one. I dunno. I'm not ready to do it right yet because I really don't understand how our mainstream thinks anymore. It's just totally past me why people think "It sure seemed like a good idea at the time" is any kind of excuse. |
2009-11-02T17:17:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/02/all-politics-is-local/#comment-2021 |
| I've thought about other media, even have a few podcasts scattered through Barataria. Never done video, tho. That might be a good idea for this one. No idea how to get started with that, however. | 2009-10-30T19:43:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/30/helical-waves/#comment-2005 |
| Thanks everyone! Jim, I do agree with you there. I'm going my best to make sure that they get the classics in literature and study history and geography and a few other things that aren't coming to mind right away. I really do think that when they are young that the hot tip is to expand their minds and build intellectual confidence - it seems to make the lessons of history and literature more accessible, too. |
2009-10-28T14:52:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/28/skills/#comment-1994 |
| Annlise, I guess that is what I'm saying. It seems pretty sick to me, too. But the more guy who pulled the gag knew that the more outrageous he made it, the more people would want to believe it. It's a voyeuristic thrill. Rush doesn't have that much to offer people, but they still want to believe him. Dunno why. |
2009-10-26T22:51:31+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/26/lighter-than-air/#comment-1957 |
| If there was ever a time to try, it' s now. I've spoken to a lot of elected officials and planners, ad everyone knows that this is a terrible plan. What we need is one small child to say, "The Emperor is naked - and he's not very attractive, either!". I'm willing to be that child. The people who are giving money to the Collaborative cannot allow themselves to be dragged down by a series of lawsuits and charges of racism or classism. There will be more suits filed, and this will get a lot uglier. I'm offering a way out now so that I can build some momentum behind it. It's our only hope. Besides, I grew up in Miami, so I know what it looks like when an entire culture becomes delusional. I won't tolerate that behavior in Saint Paul. |
2009-10-23T21:04:24+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/23/reboot/#comment-1932 |
| The forces that have backed this project, as it is, are amazing. But we do have a lot of people who know better that have their own clout on board now, for the first time. I don't think they will let themselves be used as pawns in this game, either. They will need an alternative, and it's up to people like me to provide it. The time is right for a real breakthrough! | 2009-10-23T13:48:43+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/23/reboot/#comment-1909 |
| Over the long haul, things should even out, yes. But over the long haul, we're all dead - so that doesn't do us much good. The idea of PPP is that we can tell what direction things are likely to go, and if anything the US Dollar is still very strong by that measure. It still has some way to fall. Does that mean it will? Not right away, for sure, and maybe not even in my lifetime. But there are other pressures that are likely to make it happen. I'm just trying to introduce the concept. I think that the Big Mac Index, while awfully simple and silly, makes the point pretty well. |
2009-10-19T17:24:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/19/big-mac-index/#comment-1860 |
| No, the Big Mac Index is far from complete, but it's a way of teaching the concept. I'm going to get into the details of this in coming weeks. | 2009-10-19T12:44:21+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/19/big-mac-index/#comment-1853 |
| I've never heard of a "mens underwear index", but I suppose anything that is about the same everywhere will do. It's a matter of what you can get for your money or, as the UBS method suggested, time at work. | 2009-10-19T02:22:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/19/big-mac-index/#comment-1848 |
| I haven't heard that in a long time, Jim. I think "topsy turvy" just sounds good - there are some phrases that are just nonsense. | 2009-10-16T19:41:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/16/just-sayin/#comment-1797 |
| I've often wondered about that one, too. There are also some perfectly good words that are only used by newspaper reporters, such as "feckless" - it's a perfectly useful word, but since it's so rare I have to wonder if it's useful. | 2009-10-16T13:28:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/16/just-sayin/#comment-1788 |
| Thanks so much, everyone. I've also found a few blogs through newsbobber that I never would have otherwise. It's a great service. My ranking? It's OK, at best. But let's see if it rises. :-) |
2009-10-14T19:11:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/14/newsbobber/#comment-1744 |
| Some ghost that can use modern technology, eh? Seriously, I do think that this concept can well be traced to Bolivar because it became a central part of the independence movement. la Raza is distinct from anything else, and that crystallized the rebellion. As for haunting, let's ask Chavez ... :-) | 2009-10-13T17:28:16+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/12/dia-de-la-raza/#comment-1731 |
| Hello, everyone. I accidentally deleted the comments on this post, so I had to rebuild them from what was recorded on another site. If there's something attributed to you that you don't like, please tell me. Thanks! | 2009-10-11T18:01:37+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1689 |
| Thanks, everyone. Perhaps I should assemble this into a book. The booklist I'm getting together (yes, I am!) could serve as bibliography. I do need to do more research, however. | 2009-10-10T17:48:40+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1688 |
| You should put this in book form. Lay it all out in an order that makes sense. I love what you're saying on the blog, but I get the feeling that it's in the order that it comes to you. Great stuff! | 2009-10-10T17:44:28+00:00 | Just Bob | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1687 |
| Absolutely amazing - great blog. | 2009-10-10T05:41:29+00:00 | Erin | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1686 |
| Another excellent way to look at networks. Thanks! | 2009-10-10T01:30:19+00:00 | Jim Sauder | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1685 |
| Magnus - that's very eloquent, if a bit simple. Thank you. I wrote the same thing about my dog, adopted as a stray. He wanted to keep moving until he had a home, and was very restless until he understood he was home with me. A strong sense of place gives us a sense of belonging, or at the very least curiosity. I can accept that as a given, yes. | 2009-10-09T18:39:21+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1684 |
| Wherever you go, there you are. If you aren't somewhere, you need to keep moving. Otherwise not being somewhere makes you nobody.That is how I explain this concept to people. It is simply human nature. We like to belong. |
2009-10-09T18:16:09+00:00 | Magnus Erickson | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1683 |
| Yes, you have to be somewhere or you keep moving. It's the same in any good design, really. You have to be connected to the place, real or internet, before you hang around long enough to connect with people. I don't think this is mysterious at all, BTW. If you think I'm stating the obvious, all I can ask is, " How often doyou see the obvious ignored?" | 2009-10-09T17:53:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1682 |
| I translate 'a sense of place' as 'you have to feel like you are somewhere'. All the cold glass and steel of downtown makes me want to keep moving. | 2009-10-09T17:18:28+00:00 | Janine Gorwitz | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1681 |
| Yes, and thank you. It was a brief appearance on my li'l neighborhood and why it is. Nothing special, but it's fun to be on teevee. | 2009-10-08T14:13:45+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/07/young-at-heart/#comment-1639 |
| Jan - I've been thinking about this. Alternative energy is the most obvious, but I'm willing to let the market sort it out. My biggest concern is that the structures we have in place prevent the market from working efficiently to do it on its own. That may sound rather Libertarian, but I don't care. If we have some kind of regulation for a real social need that's one thing, but having a lot of structures in place just because we've always done it that way is dangerous, IMHO. | 2009-10-08T03:27:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/07/young-at-heart/#comment-1637 |
| Jim - You're right, this is the Millenials hitting the job market. Their parents, the Boomers, haven't retired yet, either. I do think that there are some effects from immigration, but I didn't nail them down yet. Dan - we do have to fill the capacity we have, which now that we're in a Depression is around 50% utilization (a shade less, actually). That will be first, yes, but I think we'll see that come on sooner rather than later. |
2009-10-07T22:32:40+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/07/young-at-heart/#comment-1634 |
| Bob, that's a luxury that might be partially true, but it's going to seem a lot more expensive as time goes on. It may be a hard habit to break, but I'll bet we find we have to. | 2009-10-06T13:54:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/05/forex-is-foretold/#comment-1619 |
| Jan, I may do just that. I think we're getting to the point where very big changes are starting to happen very quickly, which is why I wanted to talk about ForEx ahead of what's coming (start from the general, move to the specific, you know the drill by now!). | 2009-10-05T19:18:53+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/05/forex-is-foretold/#comment-1617 |
| The USD is definitely taking on a lot more risk than it ever had before. I've long been in favor of devaluation, since it is probably the only thing that will halt our 50 year long slide in manufacturing. But the problem is that it's likely to pop quickly and with a lot of mess. That's not just bad for us, it's bad for the whole world. | 2009-10-05T13:12:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/05/forex-is-foretold/#comment-1615 |
| I find it hard to believe that this is still seen as a radical way of doing things, but my dealings with planners tells me it certainly is. My guess is that this is one of those issues where excessive specialization has ruined a field that is supposedly related to human ecology. "A Pattern Language" is very inter-discipline, and thus easy to marginalized. As far as these schools "hating cities", well, I see a lot of evidence that they are generally rather clueless about sociology, history, and common sense - but that doesn't mean they hate civilized life as we know it. It's still possible, of course, but I always have to go with an utter lack of imagination and laziness (relying on the way things have always been) before I go to "hate". |
2009-10-04T16:27:30+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/02/a-pattern-language/#comment-1600 |
| I will think about the Barataria book list - but the book club maaaay be a bit more than I'm willing to tackle. :-) Thanks for the suggestions, everyone. | 2009-10-03T21:25:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/02/a-pattern-language/#comment-1598 |
| Dan: I think I should share some more. You're right, "A Pattern Language" goes from the very specific 'do this!' to more general things, but that fits the fact that it covers planning and building. It's a wild book in some ways. Janine: Good point, there was a lot of stuff in the late 70s that got shelved somewhere in the Reagen years. It's too bad because I think that there was a lot of stuff conservatives have come to realize supports a "small is good" thinking that they often support. Jim: A list of books is a good idea. Yes, I've worked with a lot of codes over the years, and the old ones are a mess. The newest ones, such as on the River Corridor, are written with a lot of influence of "A Pattern Language", so I know people somewhere are reading this book. It's not really a book to sit down and read, but look for it at the library - I think St Paul Central Library has a copy. |
2009-10-02T14:32:58+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/02/a-pattern-language/#comment-1596 |
| It was on Sci-Fri, that's how I learned about it. You're revealing my secrets. :-) But I thought it fit in with what I'm talking about pretty well, so I went with it. | 2009-09-30T18:18:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/30/social-networks/#comment-1586 |
| Thanks! It is amazing to think how utterly dead animation was in the 1970s - and how major studios have come to depend on it as a major part of their revenue 30 years on. One generation of trying new things from odd places made something great in a hurry. | 2009-09-29T21:12:16+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/28/anime/#comment-1576 |
| Yes, but a patent requires you to "teach the art", not the science. It's all good. :-) | 2009-09-28T13:55:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/28/anime/#comment-1574 |
| Thank you, and borrow all you want. I've done Strategic Planning for a number of small organizations, and what I learned was that the key is to have people understand the importance of these distinctions, not just throw words at then. Ming ke ming, feichang ming. :-) I'd love to make a living off of this, but sadly the field has too many charlatans who are far more aggressive than I am. As long as people want BS, it's hard to make a living telling the truth! Getting back to the war analogy, the next level of this discussion is the old saying about war that "Amateurs talk tactics while experts talk logistics." :-) |
2009-09-27T15:44:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/25/keep-fighting/#comment-1571 |
| skydaddy, you're right - it's not like war. It's what Bob said - it's the way anything complicated gets done. War is just the easiest metaphor, and I now wish I hadn't used it. It is about winning "Hearts and Minds" - that's what I meant by claiming territory. The right can, theoretically, fight as a constant "minority" and conduct nothing but a guerilla war, but the left has to take a stand. Their different objectives require different strategies and, especially, tactics. The left HAS to engage, whereas the right can fight as a tiny minority if they have to (though they are doing a good job of engaging at least some people). But I agree that the left fighting as it is now will fail. I see Obama leading his own people by example as he engages the population, which is what caused me to say this as openly as I did. I want us to follow our leader because, damnitall, he's right. We have to win people over, and that's very different from what Janine called an "eilte" throwing bombs at the other side. This is what I like about writing a blog - people catch me being ineloquent or innacurate. It's all good. :-) |
2009-09-25T18:40:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/25/keep-fighting/#comment-1567 |
| Thanks. I didn't want to do this post, and I've been working around it for years. It's ... well, "pedantic" is the nice word. But the message has to come through in plain English - we can't use the same tactics to advance different strategies. I think the President has made this clear, and I think it's time we follow his lead. | 2009-09-25T03:32:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/25/keep-fighting/#comment-1562 |
| I definitely see people on both sides exploiting what they call "politics" for their own very small careers. It happens on both teevee and in the blog world, and it's very sad. Most of what I see on CNN is not politics. It is shabby attempts at entertainment done by people who are terribly not funny. The blogs that peddle this nonsense are, indeed, nowhere near as well read as they'd like you to think no matter how much they link to each other - either to praise or damn. It's all show, no substance. The substance was there on Letterman. People need to realize that they can, indeed, connect to politics and take it over form the elitist "in crowd" that likes to think they run it now. Obama got around them very well. No matter what people think about him or his policies, I hope we can disagree based on what's real and not the relentless chatter - on both sides. |
2009-09-23T03:19:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/23/late-night-politics/#comment-1554 |
| There are many things you can do in Excel that you really can't do or can't do well in anything else. It's handy because it's so flexible. I'd like to see the Excel equivalent for small devices and what it can do. | 2009-09-22T14:04:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/21/excellent/#comment-1548 |
| I've found a few minor differences in Open Office Calc that I've had to work around, but nothing serious. It's still the crescent wrench of our time! | 2009-09-21T13:32:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/21/excellent/#comment-1546 |
| John: the reason I went into generational distinctions is that I see this as a strong function of age. I'm 43, and people older than me are pretty much Boomers. I know a lot of people who watched their 401k go from "Retire Early" to "Die at Work". That doesn't even count the despair of those with a family to care for who have to learn a new career at 50 or more. Does this describe everyone? Oh, no, not close. But I see a lot of Learned Hopelessness out there, and it bothers me a lot more than activism (going on what Jim said). Dan, I appreciate a "B" once in a while to keep me honest. :-) |
2009-09-18T12:21:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/18/learned-helplessness/#comment-1538 |
| Yes, Jan, I'm exploring what I was talking about earlier. It's a continuation of the themes I was exploring in "Systemic Connections": http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/08/31/jefferson-versus-hamilton/ The way out, of course, it to either modify either our reliance on specialization or our concept of individualism. That is why I think the critical political debate of tomorrow will be different than today. In a sense, it’s the debate of 200 years ago. |
2009-09-18T02:36:45+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/18/learned-helplessness/#comment-1533 |
| I've had the pleasure of trying to teach foreigners how to play/watch American Football. It's not easy. In fact, it may be a good definition of the tortures of Hell. But I did it. George Will said that football exemplifies the worst aspects of our culture - "Violence punctuated by committee meetings." I've always liked that. But I like football. No, I don't see why we have to subsidize stadia, but aside from that it's a lot of fun and it brings people together. |
2009-09-16T12:58:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/16/football/#comment-1526 |
| What the Strib has now is an option to have the assembled paper sent to you every day by e-mail for $2 a week - I guess there's a discount if you subscribe to the paper copy. I couldn't find any stats on how many people take them up on this. The proposal that's floating around is to lock down the whole free site that we know, outside of a few teasers possibly. Unique content, which is to say local news or insightful commentary, is always the trick. They won't just be filling the "news hole" any longer, so the mindset has to be totally different. I dunno just what's planned, however, but we have one solid proposal now on the table for how they'll bill - what that means to the paper's content is up in the air. |
2009-09-11T16:11:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/11/digital-paperboy/#comment-1503 |
| Thanks everyone. Let's spread the word, especially among us white people - we can't let minorities bear the burden of calling this BS all the time. Dan, it does have to be the loneliest job in the world. I hope Obama can keep it from wearing him down. |
2009-09-07T15:25:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/07/jim-crowing/#comment-1486 |
| Blice works as a plural, but Hice? Dunno about that. Dan, the Amish are against electricity for reasons that pass logic. A wind turbine running the saws, etc, would make way more sense than the gasoline engines they use, but they don't. One of those things. |
2009-09-06T02:20:56+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/28/awfully-artificial/#comment-1475 |
| Jim, you're right. Best to keep it simple. Industrial age jobs have always been a bit at odd with our vies of freedom. Leads us right into a good Labor Day discussion! |
2009-09-06T02:19:16+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/31/jefferson-versus-hamilton/#comment-1474 |
| Dan, they did have a lot of latitude. It worked really well. | 2009-09-06T02:17:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/04/labor-day/#comment-1473 |
| Jim: You are right - anything we do will have a strong consumer component. I do think, however, we can tweak it a little towards the information management end. For example, let's say we had pools organized by region (perhaps Saint Paul and suburbs). There's an incentive to improve the overall health of that region any way you can. Preventative care, which is generally based on getting a message out, can even be emphasized more through additional incentives. The idea is that if the system is set up to help people manage information that they are bombarded with, it probably has a shot at preventing the need for care in the first place. But I have no doubt that it will be a consumer model at the core of it, oh yeah. I just want to make sure we don't miss other "connections". :-) |
2009-08-26T22:18:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/26/sixteen-tons/#comment-1446 |
| Dan, there are other ways of financing, but I've never really thunk that one out. I can tell you this - when the Amish need money, such as when a young couple needs a farm, they have a way of raising big wads of bills among them and keeping track of it all that borders on magic. They have some way that I don't know about. But I've never thought it through, to be honest. Hope someone comes along with some new ideas on that front, 'cuz it's a good one. |
2009-08-25T00:58:39+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/24/platform/#comment-1440 |
| I give! I didn't explain myself very well. Try the post Specialists. The "optimal" structure when we're fat & happy is a series of connections we start to rely on. Some of the new connections we need for the economy of tomorrow aren't made because they don't look necessary. But they are - or will be. I'm trying to look at the barriers to making new connections in the economy and how we can lift those to get us a lot closer to the ideal of a free market, as discussed in the post Marketism. Does that explain it? I guess I did gloss over too much getting to today's post. Sorry 'bout that. | 2009-08-24T19:06:38+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/24/platform/#comment-1436 |
| Welcome, Ron! You have a good point - I should have explained more. Retraining is all about getting people to make new connections to the world, starting from their own skills and working outward. The Barriers to Entry problem is something that comes from understanding that the way we connect to our economy has changed - the system we have grew up when people in the industrialized North connected to the economy primarily through the company they worked for ("I owe my soul to the company store"), which has changed - requiring new connections to be made. The Apollo of Energy would almost certainly require a number of technologies to come together in new ways, such as turbine powered hybrid cars (I should explain that more later). Creating an environment that encourages that is the key to making this work. Infrastructure? Hopelessly old fashioned, I admit. But if we look at high speed rail nationwide, I can promise new links will form. You're right, a lot of this doesn't obviously follow. But the main point is to create an environment where people can form the connections necessary to make the world that's coming possible now that the old connections are breaking down. I didn't push it because it seemed a bit tenuous, but I should build more on my old work. |
2009-08-24T17:52:35+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/24/platform/#comment-1434 |
| Sorry, I was being imprecise. The total for manufacturing in the same period was 1,661B$, which is to say that wages are about 27% of the total cost. The next problem is what do they include in "wages"? Since the CES is done by survey, I think this is take-home pay - not bennies or any other overhead. This chart - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.t06.htm - says that it's $32.06 per hour, and that the wages average 69.7% of the total cost including taxes and bennies. What I'm trying to get at is this: what is the real cost for an American worker, and what can be done to reduce the overhead? I'm trying to find if there is a potential for real savings there by shifting costs for benefits to the Feds, providing additional incentives to create jobs. There may be other ways of reducing that overhead, too. What I'm seeing is that if we could cut the overhead in half, we'd save about 15% of worker costs or about 5.7% of the cost of manufacturing overall. It's not huge, but it's interesting to note that we lost about 6% of all jobs in the last year - a very similar number. |
2009-08-21T20:11:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/19/a-matter-of-priority/#comment-1427 |
| Thanks, especially for adding Knowitall. That also gets a few hits, and is in the top list right now. I hope you all can see where the series "Systemic Connections" came from. I let my topics drift a bit from time to time, but I do like to bring them back together into one larger thought. It's hard to be specific at that level, though, so give me a bit. | 2009-08-21T17:19:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/21/baratariana/#comment-1425 |
| Perpich was a real hero of mine - the guy really cared and really thought about things. Shaming them into it? Well, I'm all for it - but if people come back to you with really good points about policy and other changes that need to be made to make it happen, we probably need to give them at least a good listen. Lobbyists? Sure, that's a lot of it. But if Democrats don't stand for what I'm talking about here, the party isn't going to be in power for too long. I hope that's obvious (but it doesn't seem to be). |
2009-08-19T15:09:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/19/a-matter-of-priority/#comment-1411 |
| Dan, don't you think I've cheesed off enough people as it is? :-) Seriously, you're very right, I'm hinting at a deep problem in democratic politics - as we know it - which is to say a problem especially in the Democratic Party. There's a deep split that I've been contemplating ever since so much power was gained in November (there's an old post back there on it). I do not like to criticize without offering solutions, so rather than say what I think is wrong with some people and their attitudes I'm working on what I think is the way out of the woods. Now, if you knew me in person, you'd get the whole story peppered with swear words, but that's another deal, right? :-) I think the people who would be most offended by what I have to say already are, at least based on some strange mail and twitter conversations I've had. They already get that I'm on another side of some kind. Thing is, I'm not going into battle until I know what "my side" is. We'll see. |
2009-08-17T18:50:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/17/systemic-connections-conclusion/#comment-1402 |
| Thanks so much. I don't know why so few people are willing to ask the hard questions about how our world is organized - it sure seems to me that in turbulent times the people who have at least some idea what's going on are the ones that will thrive. I don't talk about the internet because far, far too much has been written about the internet as a "thing". Once I've talked about this sort of organizational stuff, a lot of the potential value of the 'net is obvious and the rest we can talk about more intelligently. I read today at bbc.co.uk that 40% of the tweets on twitter were labeled "babble" of the "I just had a sandwich" variety. It's barking, not talking. We can talk about the potential of the internet to connect people all we want, but if enormity of it all scares them into barking back most of the time, what does it matter? We can't be so enamored of this new thang that we don't take the time to understand how it might be useful. |
2009-08-17T14:30:50+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/17/systemic-connections-conclusion/#comment-1400 |
| Sean: We are indeed way past overload most of the time. As Scott Adams of "Dilbert" once said, the flow of information is like a firehose aimed a teacup. You're right - that's new, and a big change. I'll try to wrap up what I think about all this in the conclusion of this on Monday. |
2009-08-14T18:32:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/07/systemic-connections/#comment-1395 |
| Follow the links ... follow the links .. :-) When I first started blogging, hyperlinks in text weren't standard. We used hyperlink footnotes instead, which was really cumbersome. Everything I write is building on what I've written before and what other people have written, so I think that the links are essential. I use them to give detail and context when I'm taking what I said before to a different place. I write about writing because I think it's nothing less than the art of making connections. I've been asked many times, "What is Barataria actually about?" and that made me think it over. This is a blog about connections, and when I write about writing I'm going into details regarding the main way connections are made and reinforced. As always, thanks for reading! Without readers, there's no point to writing. My goal isn't to cram a bunch of stuff into people's heads, it's to establish a connection between us. Each new idea and perspective has to come back stamped with the personality of the reader for me to know that it's worked. |
2009-08-14T18:30:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/12/systemic-connections-economy/#comment-1394 |
| Thanks. I'll wrap it up on Monday. It's a bit too dense of a topic for a lot of specifics in the space I have (these are a bit too long as it is) so consider this series of 5 the statement of how I look at things - the perspective of the "strong half-step back". I'll give you specifics in the coming days and weeks that flesh out what I'm talking about. I had to lay out this perspective first so that I could take off and explore it. Barataria isn't a destination, it's a journey. It's not a blog, it's a connection. :-) |
2009-08-14T18:22:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/14/systemic-connections-politics/#comment-1393 |
| A rare footnote, mostly to beat Mitch to the punch. I've been talking about this for 10 years, but there is finally some evidence that it's happening. I had to be right eventually, yes? | 2009-08-14T00:40:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/14/systemic-connections-politics/#comment-1388 |
| The bigger point will be more obvious, but it's stated pretty blankly in the first piece in this series (and it is a series now!). The internet does change things like all communications technologies do, but probably not in the way that people think. Always, follow the links! I give "Connections" by James Burke full credit. I'm attempting to take his basic principles to a broader level here. |
2009-08-12T12:50:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/10/systemic-connections-technology/#comment-1379 |
| The two different "markets", jobs and investment, might at first glance seem to work differently, but up close they do not. I find this fascinating. I think there's a pretty basic human need in here somewhere. I guess I could have been more specific with some GM examples I was playing with. This was a vast area, and I'm trying to sum up what I've been saying for two years or more into one framework. |
2009-08-12T12:48:30+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/12/systemic-connections-economy/#comment-1378 |
| OK, I did some of them. Well, what I was a pretty slack job of estimating the number of articles per month (I was NOT going to count all the articles at the Strib!) and applied the formula that I gave above. Sadly, I can't get an appropriate use of significant figures out of MS Excel, so this looks like these are exact number. They aren't. But here is my guess as to how many individual people actually see any of these outlets in a month: StarTribune 44234 PioneerPlanet 16182 CityPages 15588 Powerline 12698 MinnPost 10974 St. Cloud Times 6266 Grand Forks Herald 6777 Duluth News-Tribune 6293 Rochester Post-Bulletin 6025 Minnesota Independent 5254 TC Daily Planet 4171 Mankato Free Press 4047 Barataria 3207 Bemidji Pioneer 1846 Politics in Minnesota 2026 Hindsight (MN 2020) 1241 Minnesota Dem Exposed 774 Dump Bachman 979 This is only a guess, but I do think it's safe to say that less than 1k people likely see MDE. More than 5k read MNIndy and about 11k see MinnPost. |
2009-08-08T12:31:40+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1367 |
| Brian: Thanks so much. I can't tell you how gratifying it is to see someone as sharp as you reading regularly! Jan: To get all James Burke on you, historically communications advances do increase connection and that sparks all kinds of information. Perhaps this will all look like a small adjustment in the really long run! Dan: I'll get more specific. I was thinking of making this into one of my small series, like the "Urban Core" or "Generations" runs - I haven't done one in a while. I'll get way more specific there if I do this, so consider this the opening Thesis. Also, Barataria is just whatever I'm thinking about. I hope you can see that this is about a year's worth of ponderin' crystallizing into something that makes sense of it all. I've been interested in the forces of change, the role of specialization and the maintenance of institutions for while now, so this is just an attempt to create a framework for understanding them all. I wanted your input before I went too much further, tho. Thanks for it! |
2009-08-07T14:30:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/07/systemic-connections/#comment-1364 |
| Thanks - I'm not sure about the history, but I've heard a few things. Incidentally, we could get even more into these site numbers than they probably deserve and really get at how many people are affected by a site. If you have, say, 14k unique visits in a month and you post 14 entries, on average, it's reasonable that you had at least 14k/14 = 1,000 people who visited. If each person read exactly once and left, that's the number of people it takes. Call this ReaderMin. The maximum is, of course, 14k people each visiting once and then boggeying off. Call this ReaderMax. The geometric mean between the two is the excel formula exp((ln(14000)+ln(1000)/2)), which comes out at about 3500 people. That's how many people I think see Barataria in a month. Keep in mind that this includes all the people that stray in who are looking for info on Barataria, Louisiana. It also includes the searches for Daniel Burnham of "Make no small plans" that get something semi-relevant (more than you might think). But I think it's about right. If we got an article count per month for all these sites, we could estimate the number of people they touch that way. It's a lot of work, tho. |
2009-08-07T14:19:56+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1363 |
| Thanks, Dan - readership was up a bit. :-) I don't know why we went with an all at-large school board, but at the time (the 60s?) we had an at-large city council. It may have just been how things were done at the time the Independent School District was created, stripping the power away from the Mayor. |
2009-08-07T02:11:53+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1355 |
| An excellent point, as usual, Bruce. Just for giggles I looked up the stats on HuffPo to compare to the other Big Dawgs. It's about 1/3 the traffic of the NY Times, but about the same as the Washington Post. That's impressive. Perhaps the real issue that I missed is that we aren't focusing on local/state politics as much as national. Then again, I think the measure of Volume * Relevance is a score where HuffPo does indeed do very well. I'll think about it some more, and thanks for making me do that! |
2009-08-06T16:55:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1351 |
| I don't think people will be mad at me, but if they are it's not my fault. I think that low readership is a poorly kept secret among the bloggers already. Any backlash, of course, might be a chance to spike readership for Barataria so it's not worth worrying about. It's not like anyone is making any money at this. | 2009-08-05T14:12:20+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1348 |
| Yes, the spaces inbetween people are filled by something called "culture" that defines all of us together in some way. The ritual of "having a beer" with someone you disagree with sez you're either making peace or at least agreeing to disagree civilly. It's a pretty deeply held value - one that is essential for folks in a diverse society to get along with each other. It comes down to this thing called "civilization" at some point, since that's the sum total of the rituals and values that allow us to live close together. | 2009-07-31T13:38:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/31/beer/#comment-1334 |
| I used the 32 hour workweek as an off-the-wall idea that might actually be a good idea - but I agree it's not in the cards. There are so many things that could possibly change, and they all interact with each other. If we did have more small retailers and fewer brand names, as Starbuck's is apparently moving towards (!) there are a zillion implications - including the possibility of a lot more work in wholesaling. That sounds a bit wacky, but it's possible. I still think that more manufacturing has to be in the cards. Maybe not a lot more, but if the dollar comes out of all this weaker, and I think it has to, we have to make more of our own stuff. Government growing doesn't please me one bit, but I think you're right - it's a done deal. |
2009-07-17T21:42:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/15/jobs/#comment-1300 |
| I'm sad that there were no comments on this. High speed rail transportation is my fave thing to promote right now because building it would provide jobs and operating it would save us a lot of dough (as shown in this earlier post): http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/08/17/the-investment-express/ There are trains that go up to 500 kph (300 mph) in this world which could move cargo and passengers cheaper and faster than just about anything we have going. It seems to me to be a real obvious thang - until you look at the cost of installing it. But when we're throwing trillion$ at investment houses, well, I know where we can get a way better bang/buck. |
2009-07-16T21:56:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/13/moving/#comment-1297 |
| Well, Dan, you caught me. I don't talk about exactly what's involved in restructuring because there are so many things that feed into it. Consider this from a previous post: In a report from the Dallas Fed, we can see that while consumption ran about 62% of the economy from 1980 to 1996, that number crept up to 65% by 1999 and then rocketed to 70% by 2003. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/01/16/keynes-to-success/ If we consume less, which is to say put more money into durable goods like houses or save/invest it, we'll have a very different economy. A lot of the service economy will go away, for one thing. What replaces it? The people who make durable goods or find good investments around the world. There are other things that can happen to. Shifting health care from an employer cost to something the government pays is a big restructuring. We might go to 32 hour weeks to spread the work around, too. It's easy to imagine that we'll just have different jobs in a changed economy, doing different things like making more stuff or doing more research. But there's even more to it than that. Anything that makes us more efficient - defined by whatever new economic situation we're in now - is part of the puzzle. Energy efficiency is pretty obviously a part of that, but there are many things that are not obvious at all. I'm slow to speculate because I don't have the crystal ball. I'm glad health care and energy on the table because they seem a bit obvious. But everyone changing jobs also looks likely to happen and we're not talking about that at all. Changing to what? Hell, I don't even know yet - no one does. I'd like to think we all could get together and talk it out and at least have a clue. I sure can't do it by m'self. |
2009-07-16T21:52:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/15/jobs/#comment-1296 |
| I've been pretty negligent about the comments on my posts. Sorry about that - too much going on. I'm very concerned that the information needed to make the restructuring happen is being privatized, with people having to pay to get it. This means that social classes are hardening, with much less chance for movement. Seems like a big problem in a nation that's always prided itself on movement between classes. Informational interviews are just plain hard to get. Even a year ago, you could pick up the phone and have a decent chance of meeting someone to get an overview of where they are. Not any more. I have a sense that managers are weary because when I do get a return, it's been handed off to their assistant. I think it's only reasonable that once everyone starts to network it becomes a lot less effective, so it's hardly surprising. |
2009-07-15T14:40:43+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/15/jobs/#comment-1293 |
| Bob: Yes, there's a bigger problem than what I wrote about. Gender issues are always difficult. Bruce: Yes, it's a clumsy construction, but it's the one that I could come up with quickly which illustrates the problem. Language and logic are often miles apart, but usually that's not a huge problem. When it starts to affect clarity, we do have a problem. I think you got me in this case! :-) |
2009-06-01T13:54:31+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/06/01/pronouns/#comment-1166 |
| They had a good case, but they didn't make it. I believe Legislative leaders need to get their message out directly to the people to get the backing they need - in isolation, it's this clause of the Constitution versus that one. Bleh. Mechanics as artisans is a very deep subject, and it sounds very cool! |
2009-05-20T01:47:47+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/05/20/unallotted/#comment-1136 |
| Well, Susie, one alternative to the problem I've stated is to more or less punt and say, "That's it, this isn't making me happy, I'm done with it." The problem I see is that I'm not sure we have enough space for everyone to do that, should they make that choice. But yes, we have to make room for our intuition, regardless of what world we live in. |
2009-05-13T14:44:37+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/05/13/knowitall/#comment-1119 |
| Yes, as if life wasn't twisted enough, I had to add to the silliness by doing a weeklong serial story on Danger Bay! Think of it as a Soap Opera without the commercials. Or actors. Or ... well, without a lot of things. But it has Boomer's great drawings - a kind of South Park for grownups! See it at: http://boomerjack.wordpress.com/ Danger Bay - come for the bay, stay for the danger! |
2009-05-12T20:28:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/05/11/punful/#comment-1099 |
| My fave is Russia banning pork imports - even though pork has nothing to do with the problem. Huh? | 2009-04-29T15:15:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/29/the-craven/#comment-1048 |
| I'm not one for the "end of time" theories. It seems to me that big institutions, like empires, exist for a reason - and fall slowly. One thing I left out is the general feeling that the mysterious John who wrote the book of his Revelation was probably referring to Nero as the Antichrist - Caesar Nero in Greek reduces to 666, and Nero had the authority referred to. The burning of Rome probably seemed like the start of an apocalypse - but it wasn't. I'm fascinated by what it took to put it back together again and prove the visions wrong. Also, "The Lives of the Caesars" by Suetonius was well known to the Founding Fathers of the USofA. Washington, in particular, made reference to it. There's little doubt that when crafting a Republic headed by a strong executive he skimmed through this book for guidance; after all, there was no other model! |
2009-04-21T02:10:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/20/spqr/#comment-1011 |
| I'd like to go back to a theme I picked up in the bit on Trust - the one about my friends in the Amish world. Connections beyond what we can handle, or about 150 people, require us to have faith more in ideas than people. Individuals take time to know, but what someone "stands for" or "does" or any other face they turn to the world as a shorthand is easier. It's an abstraction of a person, not a real person. A lot of what we're seeing lately is that these ideas (and corresponding tribal identities they form) that are supposed to represent people are inadequate, but we act as if they are all that there is. For most of the people we meet, it really is all we have. To have a real plan of action and stay really focused, we have to have more than ideas. We have to have a deep sense of trust and faith in the people we're fighting alongside. That's totally broken down, IMHO. We can't keep our eyes on the prize because it's become an abstraction of an abstraction, a vague identity and not a lot more. We like to think our ideas are smart, but they lead us to be very dumb. But what do you want from a Taoist? |
2009-04-17T18:02:22+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/17/eyes-on-the-prize/#comment-1008 |
| Bruce, I completely agree on a personal level. I've been working on the craft of storytelling as my own personal search for a deep talent that is mine. I think everyone needs something like this that fires their imagination and gets the blood flowing. In the end, it's a balance. I proposed in my book Downriver to remain "a strong half-step back" - close enough to the task to get your hands dirty and be in the moment, but far enough back to have precious perspective. Whatever that thing is, however, we still have to live. In this great big thing called an economy we have to make our living. I have many skills that I am sure could benefit someone, especially those who need a difficult or technical story told in plain English so that it touches a wider world. Over the whole of the economy, society, or even "civilization", many people will have to find something else that they can do which allows them to survive - and perhaps thrive. In examining the barriers to entry which prevent them from making this transition easily, from one skill to another, it occurred to me that the basic concept of such a flexibility is not accepted nor is it expected. That may be not only the real immediate problem, but the way we found ourselves in the predicament in the first place. It's a theory at this point. I'm certainly willing to do what it takes to make a good living, so it's not really about me. But as I've examined before, the rules of the game require my skills to match up with both the economy and how everyone else matches up with the economy - the rules. That's a different deal all around. BTW, thanks for the Friedman mention - I knew I read an in-depth examination of that particular aspect of this problem, but damned if I could remember where! |
2009-04-13T13:59:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/13/specialists/#comment-968 |
| Janine, thanks for your support over all this time. I think you're the only person that followed me from Author's Den. People seem to get weary from questioning everything in their lives, something I've come to accept that over the years. If I'm wired up to be a questioning machine (aka, "idiot") then maybe I can dish out good questions three a week - a rate that hopefully isn't too grating. If that's my place in this world, I'm good with it. Now, why is that my place? Why is such a thing needed? Oh ... nevermind. :-) |
2009-04-10T20:26:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/10/two-years-on/#comment-948 |
| Thank you for your support and your comments, everyone. Well, maybe not the one that thought I was T ... :-) I guess what it all really comes down to is this: about the time I hit 40, I simply decided I was sick of being what everyone else wanted me to be. It was time to just be myself. This post comes the closest to saying it outright: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/06/13/techno-high-school/ I realize that not everyone is going to like me. A white boy isn't supposed to think and act like an outsider, after all, so I often throw prejudices all to Hell. I ask questions that seem really stupid at times, or at least autistic, because I tend to question really basic assumptions about ... well, about everything. Yeah, I know, I'm a real pain in the ass. But you read my attempts to explain why, and I appreciate that. I may be too old to try to fit into the great High School of life, but y'all are the ones that take me for what I am - whatever the Hell that is. I appreciate it more than I can say. Thank you! |
2009-04-10T19:55:38+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/10/two-years-on/#comment-946 |
| Well, yes, it's the overall theme. It seems to me that we aren't just ahistoric but are actually afraid of our past. The mistakes we've made rarely are discussed outside of some sterilized, systemitized "political correctness" that's stripped of all emotion. I think that anxiety about our future is the only possible result of a fear of our past. We wind up living deep in today but far less well anchored than a Taoist (or Zorba the Greek). I would like to think that I'm wrong about this fear, but when I realized that the lack of weight given to historical arguments matched our opinion of ghosts, well, a few pieces fell into place. I hope I'm wrong, but the one thing I really fear is a fear of history. |
2009-04-08T17:12:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/08/ghost-story/#comment-905 |
| Dan, you're right that GM just isn't the force it was when transit systems were ripped up 50 years ago - it does make you wonder what happens when that is not only gone, but everyone knows it's gone. Janine, I don't know anything in particular. Yes, I want to stay upbeat because there's a way to do this right. I hope we do it that way the next time - and there will be a next time as long as there's money around. |
2009-04-06T21:05:27+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/06/transit-planning/#comment-891 |
| Sorry I've been away from the comments - too busy trying to make a living. Pretty tough these days, too. One of the things I left off of this piece, because I thought it was obvious, is that the economy has to restructure itself - there's no great Politburo that will tell us just what we'll all be doing. We're gonna have a Free Market, more or less, no matter what happens. A Free Market takes time to adjust, generally, and the more "friction" or resistance it has to adjusting the longer it takes. What will be the jobs of tomorrow? I have only a few clues, and I while I thought about a piece on that it seemed so sketchy and pointless I dropped the idea. What's more interesting is how our economy moves in a way that takes advantage of the talent which now seems like a big excess. How will it do that? I dunno, but I know it'll be different. About all I think we can do it to allow it to move as rapidly as we reasonably can, and that's flexibility. I'm afraid we just don't have it. Would it be nice if some central Politburo could tell us just what things are gonna look like in a few years? Um, no, actually. I'm good with how things are - with some minor tweaking to make it a bit more open, and bit more fluid, and ideally even more of a Free Market than it is now in certain ways. |
2009-04-03T14:39:31+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/03/restructuring/#comment-879 |
| Lauri, it's funny you should mention this because part of the reason I decided to write about my experience is that I don't know any good memoirs or other stories "From the inside". Dan, I'll check out what you recommended, but I can see that you had trouble with him, too. Telling the story from a "Strong half-step back", as I recommend for nearly everything in "Downriver", will be very hard. There's a lot of distance between the Amish and the "Anglishers", as they call them. I know I'm somewhere in between at times. Also, I forgot to include a link to this post from some time ago, which I think applies to the problem of building trust in the internet world: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/06/28/ex-machina/ |
2009-03-27T14:08:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/27/trust/#comment-836 |
| I'm hedging my bets a bit because this is the first Depression to hit after modern economic theory came into being. While I don't believe for a second that we've learned how to prevent Depressions, we may very well have learned how to make them a lot less bad. I'm only partially hopeful so far. The Fed sure is pushing money into the economy as fast as they can, but we're not doing the things necessary to make restructuring easy. Labor markets are not very fluid at all. Whether people really want to call this a Depression or a Banana, I don't really care. But it is exactly the same kind of thing that we've seen before - and we know what this monster can do. |
2009-03-19T23:43:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/18/hysterical-depression/#comment-786 |
| Whether or not this is a big Depression or not, it certainly has the key characteristics. At least this time the government is doing a lot better than Hoover did. Do these things blow 40-somethings like me away? Sure do. We are the ones with kids to raise, after all. Having a lot to lose is not a good thing in this situation. | 2009-03-19T21:32:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/18/hysterical-depression/#comment-784 |
| Dan: I always say that my goal is to get people to think and that they return the favor. Glad that I did, and especially glad you did! My next piece is already in the can, but you are talking about a larger framework for all human activity. Yes, I like it! I'll think on it some. In another hour you'll have what I've been thinking about. :-) |
2009-03-17T23:14:37+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/16/values/#comment-763 |
| Cristy: I need to work on making things shorter. The problem is that to me, the art of saying a lot in a few words is poetry - and it only gets more dense! Bonnie: Sustainability, in economic and human and environmental terms, has to be what it's all about. Without that, there is only eternal conquest. I may write about a historical parallel on Wednesday. Bruce: See? You got it in 2 words, not 1200! It can be done! :-) Janine: I have been saying all along that this had to happen. I'm a Democrat largely because in 1988 Mike Dukakkis said that "We can't have an economy based on everyone doing everyone else's laundry" - and I've never heard it said better before or since. The expectation that we can get something from nothing is our real problem. A few generations ago people would not have fallen for this nonsense on the upswing, so there would have been less pain on the downside. I'm sure of it. |
2009-03-16T19:08:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/16/values/#comment-756 |
| Mitch: Funny story about Latin. Actually, in Bavaria I found that if all I knew was that an English word came from a Latin root I could say, "Es ist auf Latin ____" and they would understand me. Latin in general seems really handy. Bruce: No, I certainly don't mean for this to replace learning a language in depth. And you're right that a good sense of how languages are structured really has to be the main goal, not just how to ask for the bathroom. Part of my reasoning is that I learned the structure of languages while trying to learn a language - German - and that seemed like two things at once. The idea is to separate those a bit. What if I change it from an emphasis on 20 key phrases to an emphasis on the bits and pieces that make up a language? :-) |
2009-03-09T20:48:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/09/%c2%bfdonde-esta-el-banjo/#comment-716 |
| Dan - I really love stuff like that. I have several books on Chemurgy just for the same reason. It's really good. Just when I doubt we'll ever have people who are that smart and honest in charge of things again, I'm sure I'll be surprised. In the meantime, the engineers and seers of the 1920s are, at times, real gems that are worth reading over and over. I hope I can connect with MNPost, but so far they have been very stand-offish. I'm starting to see them as part of the Establishment, which is to say people who've seen the boat rock an awful lot and wish it would stop. They're very white, very male, and all my age and older. I also tried very hard to convince Kramer that there was another model for making money on the internet that involves targeted advertising, but I don't think he understood it. Facebook does this pretty well, but a local service like MNPost sure could go to town with the idea. But they aren't interested. I think it's sad, frankly. At some point, it has to be obvious that the established order is on its way to being dead before people will be willing to ask what comes next, I'm afraid. I hope that moment comes shortly. The established order has, at least lately, been pretty stupid about a lot of things. As much as I'm a city boy, I don't think that city people have the sense of getting things done that is necessary (I'm an Engineer by schooling). I want people to really question how things happen and why. I could ramble for hours on this topic, but let's just say that when I read the people who were looking at making things happen some 3 generations ago, no matter if it's Chemurgy (and George Washington Carver, a hero!) or more ordinary infrastructure building, I can't help but find our time seriously wanting. We have work to do, too. Let's get at it! |
2009-03-06T20:21:20+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/06/call-to-action/#comment-706 |
| zeitguy: Thank, er, I think. I'm trying to determine the most effective way to get my message out. One thing I've learned is that I need a solid foundation, which a few 800 (to 1,000) word essays can provide - especially once linked in. Building the new upon a firm foundation of the classics is what van Beethoven was all about - as was Alinksky, frankly. The problem is that people vested in the Established Order feel a deep need to insult people like me who challenge them. I've been called "Delusional" for saying that civil unrest is even a possibility to warn against, for example. The reaction has been so strong against what I have to say that I've become convinced that people have used it to keep me from finding steady work. Yes, I'd like to get the word out a bit more. That's my goal. Twitter is a pain in the butt, yet I can't help but think that training myself to use 140 characters isn't a good thing. I'm also hitting other people's sites to add comments. As for introductions, well, I don't know people well enough! But I'll think about what I can do. |
2009-03-06T18:27:21+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/06/call-to-action/#comment-704 |
| I've been slow to respond - sorry. I'll just hit the highlights. Cristy: Since I make my living in words, it does seem very strange to say that words are not that important. For me, it's the humility of understanding the limitations of words that is important. Yet there is great power in engaging people all the same, at least in a social sense. The writer in me says you are right, the Engineer in my says that we tiny walking upright chimps aren't as important as we think. :-) Allow me that much humility - the usual arrogance you have to take in larger doses than most people. Bruce: The choice of word "Depression" is a strange on both emotionally and economically. But both do describe a long, protracted feeling that everything sucks. Are we in a period of just being down on ourselves? Well, naturally, I don't think so. I use "Depression" to describe a type of Recession more than a depth or length, and we are in the type of downturn that starts with a banking/credit meltdown and gradually oozes through everything. I also think we're way over-due on the traditional scale, but who's to say that those cycles hold in an industrial era? I think the high unemployment, at least by traditional measures, is well on its way - 2M people will lose their jobs this quarter at the current rate. It's what comes with this particular type of contraction, at least usually. I expect it to get a lot worse unless the government really does have its shit together. I hope that makes at least some sense. Dan - wow ... that is a great topic to spend some time on, but I seriously have to do more reading first! I was thinking of explaining Kondratiev via the concept of Jubilee - 7 cycles of 7, followed by a Jubilee Year of great abundance. The middle seven year is the bad one. I stopped myself from doing it because, in all honesty, I know the Biblical references but I know there's a LOT more in other cultures. You mentioned Aeneid, and I just don't know it. Let me get to the reading! :-) Thanks, everyone, great stuff. You're making me think, and I love that! |
2009-03-06T18:15:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/04/whats-in-a-name/#comment-703 |
| Sorry, I have no leads on where to purchase Taoiana - I've never been able to accumulate such things in my life. I like to say that the sage knows that the Way lies in his head and his being, but the reality is I'm just really cheap. As for my audience, well, they're awfully shy. I know there are a lot more people reading my stuff than the comments suggest, but I can't get comments out of 'em. This is a big hint, y'all! The first rule of social marketing is that everyone lies about their traffic, so I won't say a word - it'll look like lying. Just check the Alexa rankings, which are far from perfect but make a good first guess. I should probably say something more controversial just to get some comments - in case my slam of social marketing doesn't do it. |
2009-03-04T16:40:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/04/whats-in-a-name/#comment-675 |
| If that's the only question, you're right - we're screwed. I'm the only person who puts it this way because I'm a Gentleman Pirate at heart, a Jean Lafitte. I also tend to do far too much work that just needs to be done for very little pay. It gets old. The lack of transparency in our whole system has been an issue for a while and I think it'll be a much bigger one soon. We don't find jobs with Want Ads, we find them by knowing people who know someone - either as networking or through recruiting firms. Critical information as to where the real needs are and what the opportunities are out there has been privatized because it is valuable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has some of this information, but when things start to change rapidly they won't keep up; that's also when the broader market of people needs it the most. A fluid labor market is critical when there is restructuring. I've gone on at length about the overhead per employee, but the other major barrier I see is the simple fact that the professional middle class has been turning into an enormous Guild system. If you break that down rapidly, the first thing you'll see is falling wages. However, at the end of it all, there's serious work to be done all over the place. I've been doing a lot of it, but it's time that some of the good people I've been proud to work shoulder to shoulder on get paid what they are worth. Openness is the only way to do that - and the only way for people to keep moving the way they have to through bad times. We're gonna put this "Information Age" to a real test. I want it to pass. Who has money? It's a simple question - but one that I can't get a good answer to. That's scary as all Hell, actually. |
2009-02-25T17:42:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/25/want-ads/#comment-649 |
| Bruce, you're exactly right. That's why I'm so slow to say, "We have to have more manufacturing in the US!" outright. There are key advantages to manufacturing jobs and there the decline of manufacturing has a lot to do with the perilous position we're in. BUT - that doesn't mean we should start pumping out cheap stuff that China has gotten a rep over. What I'm doing here is listing what I know - that ultimately we have to make something and that there have been a number of policy changes over the years that have made this more difficult. What to make? I'm not there yet. I like the fact that you started down that road, BTW, and you have some good starts. Obama is thinking this way, too. But I want the groundwork established so that people know why we're doing this. Thanks a bunch! |
2009-02-20T22:36:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/20/grandpas-job/#comment-631 |
| I left off retail because, strangely, it doesn't seem to have changed much. It was 11% of GDP in 1947 and 10% in 2006. I don't have employment percentages because, I think, it was folded into service - but I'm not sure. Since it hasn't changed much as a share of GDP, I doubt it's changed much as a share of employment. That's not to say it hasn't changed, but the bulk change in our economy doesn't register. |
2009-02-20T03:24:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/20/grandpas-job/#comment-626 |
| I checked it out Jeffrey, and you are correct. It does explain a lot. What an interesting way to remember Jackson, though. The portrait was made when life weighed heavy on him, but it looks as though History is weighing on him. In the end, he weighs heavily on History. But the sadness is really the loss of his one true love. Dan, there's a lot more to say here, and I think I'm going to stay on this. Thinking about Jackson opens the door to westward expansion and land speculation, which gets me to a lot of interesting parallels in history. I'm ... thinking. :-) Naturally, I'd like other people's comments and links to their own musings on these lines. (It may even give me an excuse to whip out my 1853 3 cent piece for a topic. :-) ) |
2009-02-19T15:47:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/18/jackson/#comment-619 |
| I believe you are right. I always take GDP based arguments. I will re-think the entire need for deficit based stimulus, then, because the deficit up to preparations for WWII was tiny, around 0.5% of GDP. That suggests that the most important thing was redistribution, not actual stimulus. I may have bought into some propaganda unknowingly. Thanks for calling me on it. |
2009-02-16T16:26:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/16/a-fireside-chat/#comment-607 |
| Thank you both, too much good stuff to comment on point by point - too much that doesn't need me to add anything to, either. I would like to point out my series on "A More Perfect Union", which has a link on the right. I'm not going to tell you I have all the answers, but I think it's a very important topic. We don't have the kind of common culture it takes to survive hard times - or really call ourselves one nation. The fragmentation of our culture is very chilling and, to my mind, the biggest long term threat we face. I know I have a city boy's view on this. I don't get out in rural Minnesota much, at least not since I stopped working with the Amish near Harmony, MN. I learned a lot down there, and I really should get back out there. What I do know is that values are one thing and people are another - you don't have to agree with your neighbor to be helpful. If the Amish and Anglischers (their name for us) can do it, anyone can. What I'm getting at here with manufacturing is really just a sub-set of an earlier post on what it takes to create jobs. I proposed that the overhead cost per employee needs to be looked at seriously - which includes payroll taxes, health care, and many other things. The loss of manufacturing is tied to that problem, along with the Imperial Dollar that rules the world and has provided us with a lot of cheap stuff from other nations. What are my solutions? I think Monday's post will be on why I don't have a lot of solutions yet. The main problem, to me, is that we're not talking about real issues that make a real difference. I'm not smart enough to come up with everything on my own. Without hearing from rural people and older people and a lot of other people I can't say just what will work. What I do know is that a lot of voices aren't heard, and a lot of topics haven't been seriously hashed out. I'm not jumping to any conclusions - I'm only sure which way this has to go if it's gonna get real. But I really thank you both for diving in and helping that along. I'd like a lot more comments, long and juicy comments, if you would be so kind to recommend this humble blog to a few friends. I hope we're talking this towards a new understanding. Thanks! |
2009-02-13T17:19:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/13/build-a-better-tomorrow/#comment-587 |
| Bonnie, you're right on. It's what we have to do. Janine, I'll send you the list - there are 300 million names on it, including yours and mine. I just want to move ahead, but to do that we have to know what went wrong. Blame? I'll take my share - or, more accurately, my kids probably will. And grandkids. I'm really sick of people who make this a partisan problem, tho. I'm good with taking their names so we know who gets to be the first with their backs to the wall. I saw a little CNN after the press conference and I was appalled - at both sides. |
2009-02-11T16:45:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/11/the-long-view/#comment-575 |
| I have to confess that I go through spells where I can't read a thing. I become frustrated by the inadequacy of writing to actually be the moment it is reporting. This always starts with my own clumsy use of the craft, but eventually I have trouble with other people's work. When this happens, I read Don Quixote again. I know other people who use the same trick. I may not be up to the task, but it is possible to form characters into a mass that transforms itself in the mind of the reader. That magic is what writing is all about. It's intoxicating. It's why I named this blog "Barataria" (as explained in the "About"). Look, Sancho, another dragon! | 2009-02-10T16:55:44+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/09/reading-is-writing/#comment-569 |
| Kady: I do my own graphs, and always have. It goes with the Chemical Engineering degree. The data sources are linked to in the text just below the graph itself. Someday, I'll pull out the state-by-state comparisons I've whipped up that are absolutely fascinating. :-) |
2009-02-10T00:00:57+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/16/keynes-to-success/#comment-566 |
| Bruce: Oh, no, we don't have a real market, not at all. We don't know costs, most people don't pay them, and we have no measures of quality. A real market or market-like operation would indeed control costs, but it has to be created first. No, this is the worst of both worlds - it is NOT a free market. It's so bad it's really hard to imagine what a functioning system would look like. |
2009-02-06T17:37:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/06/healthy-care/#comment-556 |
| Oops! Stupid mistake. It's been fixed. Thanks! | 2009-02-04T17:10:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/04/overhead-or-head-count/#comment-546 |
| It would be nice to be able to name it something profound and illuminating, but we may not have that option. I still think that China will want something for its money. How 'bout if we break it into smaller pieces and sell the rights to those: "This month's recession is brought to you by Tie Guan Yin - The Iron Goddess of Mercy. Have a cup of Tie Guan Yin in the afternoon as a perfect pick-me-up when you're slaving away doing our bidding! Tie Guan Yin - it's all the mercy you're gonna get!" Or is that too cynical? :-) |
2009-01-30T17:03:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/30/was-it-so-great/#comment-535 |
| Thanks, Cristy! Before we get down to work, we have some serious policy changes to think long and hard about. I was going to get into those, but in all honesty I don't like to complain without an alternative - since I don't have one yet, I let it go for now. To A Saint Paulite, you're also very right. When that happened, a lot of us out in the neighborhood were upset - people normally Democrats in good standing. This has been characterized as a partisan political issue, but it is not. The first link in this piece is about frustration with this same situation: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/06/11/urban-return/ We have to concentrate on what works. I was very pleased to hear that the City is interested in getting individuals to renno homes because that is, no question, the best way to go. It's about people and their commitment to Saint Paul. That also includes a lot of changes so that people want to make that commitment. We should be talking about EVERYTHING at this stage, IMHO. Now, as to the CDCs and other nonprofits that often do the work - they do have a role. I know it's galling when $250k or so is put into a home that sells for far less, but that's what's needed under the current codes. Simply put, in situations like this it's probably better to have a homeowner do that so that the subsidy is sweat equity rather than cash. But there will be times when CDCs have a key role to play - and that's been described as neighborhoods where the market has completely failed. I like that. Should there be more oversight when we put money into those neighborhoods? I'm all for it IF (big if) it's done in a way that doesn't increase bureaucracy and jack the price up even more. I'm optimistic, yes. I see the City understanding just how big the problem is. That means that we may have to change a lot of policies and get LIEP on board to make things happen more quickly and reasonably. Hey, let's all lean on them! We have a crisis, and I think we aren't just screwing around hoping it'll go away. I think a lot of people can tell us about their experience and make it all work one Hell of a lot better. Only a fool wouldn't listen. If this little post is one step in getting people together to make serious changes, I'll be happy. I'd like more comments like this because you have a damned fine point. Let's get organized and really change things to make this work! |
2009-01-28T18:02:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/28/renno/#comment-530 |
| A great addition, Brian. It was hard to come up with the right thing to say at this point, because we have come so far and yet have so much to do. If we learned anything from Dr. King, it's that hard work and a commitment to empower the powerless has rewards we can hardly imagine. But today, I think, we can see how far it has taken us. That is the faith that the dark past has taught us; that is the hope that the future has promised. Let's keep marching on! |
2009-01-19T03:18:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/19/shadows-past/#comment-499 |
| That was 4 questions. :-) If we spend this and it doesn't work, I have no idea what comes next, either. We'll have shot our ammo and still not have dinner. This may not have worked on the recession of 2000 because we used a "trickle down" method of stimulating the economy - upper middle class tax cuts, a war, and so on. I was hoping to quantify that, but I couldn't - the resulting argument was a lot of hand-waving that looked stupid. But it's possible that a real New Deal would still work as it did in the 30s. That's not what we're doing so far, however. My concern is that there is so much restructuring that needs to be done that we might not have a working pump to prime. There's far too much money going into exercises in pushing money around rather than actually making stuff, for example. We may have to break the economy as we know it down much further before there's something that deserves the investment of a Keynesian stimulus. I admit, I'm really not sure yet. I would like to see this debated, however. Why isn't it? Why are people so damned sure this will work - because it's the only idea they have? |
2009-01-16T19:37:42+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/16/keynes-to-success/#comment-488 |
| Ron: I believe that the networked approach to management, as opposed to the top-down or command approach, has a lot of potential for research and other knowledge products. However, when something is relatively well defined, especially something ready for mass production in manufacturing, seems to benefit from a top-down approach. The difference seems ot be when it makes sense to have a strong division of labor. The organizations I have seen that work well in a Networked structure also do not benefit from division of labor - in fact, cross-training helps a lot. I hope that makes sense. As always, it's just my observations. |
2009-01-16T03:09:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/09/spontaneous/#comment-485 |
| Thanks, I do appreciate it! Sorry 'bout Nathan, too - he really should have had it. No accounting for popularity. :-) |
2009-01-14T15:37:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/14/friends/#comment-480 |
| RJ, I totally agree, and I predicted this as much as two years before it happened. I did this by reading people like John Mauldin and Bill Gross. If you follow the links I gave, you'll see this. But most people, unimaginably, did NOT see this coming - even people in financial institutions. Why? Was this a deliberate blind eye to the obvious? I'm starting to realize after chatting with a lot of people that, no, they really didn't see it coming. They should have, yes, it was obvious as all Hell. But they didn't. Why? Something has gone terribly wrong. That's all I can tell you. I agree, it's inexcusable that so few people saw this coming. But that appears to be the truth - they didn't. |
2009-01-14T15:35:57+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/12/stupid-like-a-fox/#comment-479 |
| Employment law may protect against age discrimination, but it says nothing about the simple fact that people anticipating retirement are more likely to take buyouts. To the extent companies shed workers that way, they will definitely tend to lose more experienced workers. Once that part is over, I can assure you that age discrimination in the world of searching jobs is very real and utterly unenforceable. As for the specific management style, if you'll follow the links you'll see that I've long been a skeptic of it. However, I've seen it work recently. That's why I decided to post about it. I do see this "networked' approach catching on even as I worry that it's not appropriate for manufacturing - the one thing I've said will get this nation out of the doldrums. Having said all that, it's quite reasonable to say that the Millenials favor this approach. They clearly do. How appropriate it is remains to be seen. What we do know is that economic downturns almost always accelerate generational change, and I don't see this one as any different. |
2009-01-11T13:49:25+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/09/spontaneous/#comment-471 |
| I just wanted to make it clear that, apparently, even adults believe in Santa Claus - even if our incarnation is an ECB bureaucrat that manages to save our bacon while we sleep. | 2008-12-24T15:48:17+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/24/a-visit-from-st-klaus/#comment-432 |
| Maris, you shouldn't get me started. Too late! I love the 1st, if for no reason other than it was the first album I bought. The way it opens with a question, asked twice and then answered. Herbert von Karajan said that the 9 should be seen as a set, symmetric in their form. That question at the start of the first is answered by the ninth. The second and eighth .. I don't remember. The third and seventh really do go well together, with the marcia funabre matched to something like a resurrection. Fourth and sixth are both simple and happy. And the fifth stands alone. Bwa-ha-ha! I think it's a strange theory, but parts of it work for me (the parts I remember). |
2008-12-17T16:53:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/17/count-your-blessings/#comment-419 |
| Oooh, I think I've been beaten on my own blog! Touche! | 2008-12-17T13:20:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2007/10/24/faking-it/#comment-418 |
| The world is always turning toward the morning. I used that in last year's solstice post: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/12/17/solstice/ Oh, and since there is only one time and it is GMT (or UTC, if you must) it's already past Ludwig van's birthday. Sorry. The local station, MPR, was playing all 9 Symphonies all day. |
2008-12-17T00:45:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/17/count-your-blessings/#comment-413 |
| Everyone, I don't mean to make yer brain hurt. I just do. :-) Seriously, I know that people like me seem like a big pain at times, but I honestly think that the world we live in is understandable - if not with our heads, at least with our guts. I try to hit both in my blog for one simple reason - no one else seems to try. Honestly, how many forms of media, social or otherwise, have made a serious effort to warn you about the economy or at least explain in hindsight what happened? Well, it's yer economy, so doesn't it seem like it's a good idea to know something about it? I'm not perfect - far from it - but what I try to do is retreat to first principles that make it easier to understand the bits and pieces around our lives that have been ignored by so many for so long. Marketism is an important concept for doing that, IMHO. Your mileage may vary. Substantial penalties for early withdrawal. What if every blog and every social marketer made a point of increasing the understanding of the world that shapes our lives? Think how millions of people would learn things that allow them to take control of their lives! Think about what Freedom really is! To me, 400 word blurbs on what I had for breakfast are an utter waste of space. Let's not just seize the day, let's use it to wring out every bit of life we can! |
2008-12-16T17:08:30+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/13/marketism/#comment-408 |
| The 50 will be eliminated by the proposed train, the 94 reduced. The 16 will also be reduced, but that's the main point of contention right now with the neighbors that ride it - the proposed LRT will have a minimum half mile between stops, meaning it does not replace the 16 bus all that well. This was designed primarily as part of a long-term strategy to put LRT throughout the twin cities. There were many choices where they could route a high-speed train, but chose University Avenue instead. It was, indeed, conceived as an express train between downtowns, which is why I compare it to the 94. No matter what, the proposed line is not a local route and is not a substitute for the 16. That's my main problem. If we need a through, express train there are other places to put it - including the Short Line - that are less expensive due to less utility removal. Other cities like Portland, Alburqueue, and Seattle have used a lighter weight vehicle for local travel, and that's what would replace the 16. More importantly, it would fit within the Federal Cost Effectiveness Guidelines that determine the budget, whereas this proposal is currently over budget by $50M and probably more once they finalize the plans for the Washington Ave Bridge (this changes constantly). My main problem with this proposal remains that I do not think it can be built in the budget allowed, and there are other technologies that can be. They want this to be all things for all people, and that is running up the tab far too much. I think they should punt and start over. |
2008-12-16T16:29:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/01/30/crazy-train/#comment-406 |
| Bruce: 1) I never claimed that the 16 bus takes 28 minutes. The 94 takes that long between downtowns - I know these times because I've ridden them all. 2) I agree that external costs need to be considered. But why is the heavy LRV technology the only one being considered for this line? It makes no sense at all - and it cannot be built under the constraints put on Federal money, which has been my point all along. I want a rail system. What is happening is not going to produce one. I would guess that you would be as sad as I am once this is realized by everyone. |
2008-12-16T03:26:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/01/30/crazy-train/#comment-404 |
| My copy is falling apart. But you can find one around a lot of places. Thanks! | 2008-12-12T20:30:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/10/rules-for-radicals/#comment-398 |
| Thanks. This is one of those things that really doesn't make much sense, but it keeps our world together - right up until it all falls apart. News has come to us courtesy people who will pay to have their own news (ads) delivered all along. I think the main thing to consider, not giving much of my own ideas away, is that static paper required static ads, but dynamic databases require dynamic ads. To some extent, it's up to marketers to catch up. Where has the ad revenue gone? I'm sure it didn't go away. I think the most important thing to consider is the last link in the post, at "successful local businesses". Local media stopped being truly local and went regional, feeding the needs of Bigger Box retailers. They couldn't grow fast enough to keep up. Retailers have outgrown local nooze outlets, rendering them obsolete. Local markets create local nooze. That's the bottom line. Want a local media outlet of some kind? It has to be relatively orthogonal to the people who pay to have their nooze delivered, which is to say they must be local as well. |
2008-12-12T20:30:00+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/12/news-hole/#comment-397 |
| I don't debate that all the bits and pieces that went into being a Rockstar were around before van Beethoven. I'm saying he's the first one to put it all together and make the leap, much as Rock 'n' Roll went from being played in bars to great big arena concerts. It's the image that matters the most, and that image has stayed with us. I think a lot of the reason is that van Beethoven's personna was very public and more than a bit outrageous. He was also totally dependent on that image. I realize this is a stretch, but I don't think it's a big one. As I said, it's not a matter of a major invention but how it is packaged. Who did play the first arena-sized concert, anyway? The Rolling Stones? |
2008-12-11T03:37:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/12/rockstar/#comment-391 |
| Guys, I tried the heavy drinking in the morning. I wound up writing two chapters of "The Great Gatsby" before I passed out. Seriously, I don't do dat hard stuff. Writers have a bad enough rep as it is! A couple of beers on Friday is about my limit since about 5 years ago when I came closer than I'd like to having a real problem. Although, I have to say I've heard more than one writer refer to whiskey/vodka/etc as "writing fluid". |
2008-12-02T02:46:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/01/motivation/#comment-357 |
| Brian: That's a very good point. It is a kind of acting, no matter how I look at it. Janine: Guilty as charged! Reality is what you make of it, after all. :-) |
2008-12-01T22:31:44+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/01/motivation/#comment-354 |
| Excellent question! I have decided that "liking" a character is too much - I'm going for "interested in", which is to say more compelling than likable. Did I ever tell you that I do things the hard way? :-) Prince of Wales is a Keemun that has a lot in common with Lapsang Souchong, minus the smokiness. It's all smooth and mellow, not head-knocking. But they blend well for extra bouts of wide-awake fighting with the characters, should they deserve it! |
2008-12-01T02:20:24+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/01/motivation/#comment-351 |
| Thanks. Consider this my answer to "American Exceptionalism". Yes, we have a special history that we can be proud of and a lot of promise. But it's up to us to live up to that promise. The Promised Land is in the heart and arm and brain of the people. That's not radical or ahistoric by any means - even Brigham Young believed it. as did Laura Ingalls Wilder. As for podcasts, I tried it out to see if anyone liked them. I had no response at all, so I guess no one did. It's a lot of work and it didn't seem worth it. |
2008-11-26T15:55:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/26/promised-land/#comment-335 |
| Judy: "Deconstructionism" is very, very accurate when describing what I'm talking about. Does it qualify as a real era? Not by itself, unless it influences all art forms and matures a bit. I write these posts to start a dialogue, and to get people thinking. You got me back. Thanks! :-) I'll follow up on Deconstructionism later. |
2008-11-24T15:22:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/24/the-fractal-era/#comment-331 |
| Thanks, everyone. I like the term "Fractal Era", of course, but I do think that it's time to start looking at other terms. I fully agree that "postmodern" is just a subset of "modern", and should not be considered as particularly different - regardless of the art form. Postmodernism is a reaction, not a movement. I regret not spending more time on minimalism in literature, painting, and music, and I may have to revisit that later. There is a point where the search for the essence of the form abandons the ideas of "modernism", and I do think we've crossed that long ago. Architecture is a bit conservative as art forms go because it does require changes in building technology. Judy, you're right. Let's see where things go with that, but it's unlikely to change rapidly - especially during this downturn. I hope that some of Chris Alexander's alternative approaches start to really catch on. It is a bit presumptuous to name an era that you're living in. However, the term "Baroque" was used contemporary to the period along with "Rococo", which also goes for "Romatic Era" along with "Enlightenment Era". There's clearly some flux at the time, but the principles are laid out and named. The term "Modern" does come from the Latin "modo" and means "in the style of / right now". That suggests it applies to any period we're in now, but it can also be dispensed with as necessary. Certainly, the spirit that "right now" is terribly important, ala "Avant Garde", typifies the feeling of artistic fashion in the twentieth century - and may not relate all that well to the twenty first. We'll just have to see. For me, The Fractal Era starts in the year 2000. It's a handy place to draw a line. |
2008-11-24T15:09:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/24/the-fractal-era/#comment-330 |
| If you'll allow me to say that perhaps it's implemented badly, relentlessly most of the time, I think we might agree. The solution you propose is right on - lighting is important, and one size never fits all. A good designer does break out of that! | 2008-11-24T03:13:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/06/02/hung-t-bar-ceiling/#comment-326 |
| Thanks so much. Frank Gehry is kind of a bridge between eras, in my opinion. His form is very fractal, but using materials like stainless steel is very modernist - "Just look at how clever we humans are!" I wish he took more cues from nature and lost the audacity a bit, but the principle is good. |
2008-11-24T00:36:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/24/the-fractal-era/#comment-324 |
| Art and Culture are all around us. We don't need to look for inspiration any further than the 'hood, and the arts we create can benefit the 'hood as well. Literature is always a bit solitary, but ou have to learn character study somewhere - why not out in the 'hood? Sewing circles, iron pours, other statements of public art - these are all a part of culture, and they can and should be a mirror on the world around us. Why not? You're not gonna impress the big boyz in New York no matter what ya do. | 2008-11-21T22:01:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/21/more-perfect-union-neighborhood/#comment-319 |
| Teresa, you're absolutely right that the internet makes a broader "Folk" culture possible - but the channels make it harder to find. My next piece is going to be on what I think has to (and probably will) happen to get around this. Basically, it could be a great thing that brings us together, or it could be something that separates us the way Cristy worries. I think that with a small nudge we can make great. |
2008-11-20T16:36:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/19/more-perfect-union-internet/#comment-311 |
| Yes, I am making a bigger point. I want people to think about larger ideas like "culture" because I'm never going to have all the answers. But I'll do my best to share what answers I do have on Friday. I think it's very important to come to some kind of agreement about basic decency and stop being so pissy about stupid things. Seeing how immigrants and homosexuals can be used as wedges to promote bad politics and prevent ANYTHING from ever getting done is just a symptom of the problem. The real problem is that E Pluribus ain't so Unum anymore. That's what I hope to work out. |
2008-11-19T20:27:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/19/more-perfect-union-internet/#comment-308 |
| Thanks Breeni! Brian, I hope this answers your point - people are indeed forming on-line book clubs and doing their own reviews. It's been a bit slow, but it seems to me that the review and discussion process is democratizing through the internet. This is a very important development, and publishers MUST encourage it! I hope readers will find this all very useful, too. Without readers there's no need for writers! |
2008-11-14T18:34:53+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/14/more-perfect-union-publishing/#comment-286 |
| Excellent point, but I think I'll have to hold off until Monday. I want to say a little about the publishing industry and how literature died on us, plus need a few days to think about it. :-) But I will think about it. It's what my old friend Craig called the "fat yet full" problem - how do you know when you have enough? Usually people wind up "fat and hungry" in this way of looking at it. Why is that? Why do we always seem to want more? A big hunk of this is indeed defining yourself by what you own, which is to say letting it own what you think is you. Why does this happen? Why does it persist? I don't know. We must be awfully insecure to give in so willingly. I'll think about it. I promise. |
2008-11-13T22:55:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/12/more-perfect-union-literature/#comment-276 |
| Absolutely, Brian. What I'm getting at here is a point that Simon Bolivar made that is generally lost on the USofA, at least in the sense that we don't like to talk about it generally. A common culture is necessary to make a stable constitutional republic functional - in that sense, I agree with the right wing. However, I don't see their narrow view of culture (defined on their own terms) as viable. Literature, to me, is important because it gives us some common language that can't be hijacked ala 1984 by those who would enslave us. There are many aspects to a common culture, but the language, icons, and frames are critical to me. Yes, this is all about our Republic and the freedom that it embodies. It may seem abstract, but I'd like to open a broader discussion of our culture than we usually allow. |
2008-11-13T04:20:00+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/12/more-perfect-union-literature/#comment-274 |
| Yes, you are right. Sometimes a common language doesn't actually mean anything (outside of its cultural context): Cliches And sometimes language is used to increase the divide between groups: Techno High School Barking at the 'net | 2008-11-12T19:12:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/12/more-perfect-union-literature/#comment-272 |
| Carla, and everyone: What I said to the PPress was that I "usually am a die hard Democrat", which was appended to them saying that I called myself "a die hard Democrat". I won't claim it's not fair. You have every right to be mad at me for disloyalty because I was disloyal. But I simply could not bring myself to vote for Franken. If it was any seat other than Paul's, I might have, but I didn't. I also can tell you that there are hundreds of people like me through the state - but perhaps an equal number of Republicans who couldn't stand Norm Coleman. We'll just have to see. But I know that Minnesota can do better than this. |
2008-11-10T22:24:58+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/03/sen-dean-barkley/#comment-259 |
| Brian, I know this is hard for you, too. We're both loyal DFLers and have fought a lot of good fights. If this was any seat other than Paul's, I' d hold my nose and go with the team. I just had my fill at this last round of accusations and that was that. I do think my state deserves better, yes. Maris, the problem for me is that I developed high standards somewhere along I-75 in a car full of my stuff leaving Florida. Yeah, I know it's worse elsewhere. I just feel like I have to insist on better, is all. Minnesotans used to be a very proud people, an attribute that both infuriated and intrigued me. But I learned to love it about this place. Where did it go? |
2008-11-03T16:03:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/03/sen-dean-barkley/#comment-239 |
| I thought about term limits as a solution, but I have to say that I only consider them in the bigger picture of campaign finance and so on. There's clearly a problem in the Senate as it gets older, but it may correct itself through natural means. If it doesn't, perhaps we can find other ways of not just limiting the power of incumbency but also encouraging new voices of all kinds. If that fails, I'm not opposed to term limits. I'd like it to be the last recourse, but honestly, Ted Stevens hasn't done anyone much good in a long time. |
2008-10-30T16:01:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/29/senility-system/#comment-226 |
| The big concern I have is that access to education, long the way that the US bridge divisions between classes, will become a mechanism by which one elite class perpetuates itself. If continuing education is a requirement for the top jobs and it is only accessible by a small number of people, we will see a hardening of class divisions. That has to strike everyone as fundamentally anti-American. I do think that at some point we will step up and change things, but it may take another crisis before we do. |
2008-10-28T15:03:15+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/27/bennies/#comment-222 |
| Thanks for your support. I was afraid this posting would make people think I was a paranoid. Well, growing up in Miami does make you look over your shoulder a bit, but that's perfectly rational. Right? :-) The other anomaly I left out was that when the Miami Herald looked at the 2000 "overvotes" in Dade County, they found one polling place out on Coral Reef Drive that had hundreds of people voting over the number registered. Since this was the polling place closest to the Zoo, the standard joke was that the tapirs and koalas must have voted. What most people missed was that next to the Zoo is the antenna farm that the CIA uses to relay messages to their agents in the field down in South America (by way of Bonaire). Odd fact? Yes, but George Bush's Dad was once what? :-) |
2008-10-22T04:00:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/22/banana-republic/#comment-218 |
| I'm always hopeful when we people remember their humanity. Human shortcomings and heroics all come together to make these systems we depend on even as they transcend the humans involved. The strength is always in the people, not the system. I think we'll do OK just because they've been forced to admit what this is really all about. If that's excessive optimism, you can nail me for it later when bad shit goes down. But I also see in Obama someone who at least knows what he doesn't know and in the world's finance ministers a glimmer of fear that may be the same thing. That's good. That's the antidote to a fat & happy arrogance that we've been living with, IMHO. |
2008-10-20T14:56:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/20/out-of-the-woods/#comment-208 |
| Jeanne: Yes, politics is largely tribal. People go along with their "people" as much as anything, and I guess you've just joined another tribe. Mine, I think. Welcome! We're not a very orderly lot, but fun. Well, when we're not cynical. We're all full of hope now. I'll go hit your blog right now. | 2008-10-18T02:26:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/17/works-progress/#comment-196 |
| Maris: I might illustrate more, I dunno. I love WPA art, is all. And "My Life as a Teenage Robot" on Nick. :-) Janine: I think this came up before when talking about my fave reform of all, which is 5-year capital budgeting. It's too long to explain in the comments. I've been off on a number of things. I knew the actors and the magnitude of this crash, but the timing has always eluded me - I first thought it was in Feb, then this summer, and then Oct when results for 3Q08 came out. Oh well. I also said that Hillary would have an easy run for President back last December - Ouch! Those two come to mind quickly, but there are a few others, I'm sure. |
2008-10-17T14:44:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/17/works-progress/#comment-194 |
| This isn't the end of history, it's just the great wheel of it turning around one more time. What's funny to me is that while one era is clearly spent, the shadows of it will define the next era. The Reagan movement captured something but also channeled it into a product that was useful for some people. ; now it's time to use it a different way that is appropriate to the people that grew up in that world. It's an exciting time, really. We have to look at it that way! |
2008-10-15T16:45:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/15/generations-played-out/#comment-187 |
| Jack: I'll try harder in the future. :-) Maris: You're right in that the market can be a tough master. Liberal Democrats, or Marketists, assume that society can have power over the market. It's not really socialism in that they are two distinct things. Does that make sense? I hope it does, because that's how we've kinda run stuff. |
2008-10-13T02:39:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/13/marketism/#comment-181 |
| Jeanne, you're no backward ass Texan - you're one smart person. There's no shame in not making sense of the senseless. It takes either a liar or a fool to claim that they do. Bankers are a good lot, when they do their job right. They provide the grease that allows everyone who has a good idea to make it into reality, and that's a rather noble calling. Where it gets all mommocked up is when they make it possible for con artists to become something like minor deities - people who can make a rabbit or a lot of money come out of a hat. It sure sounds to me that your Dad understood the difference, assuming that you got your attitudes from him. I only hope that the "little guys" become more valuable through all of this. It might make it all worthwhile. Hell, I'm going to keep dreaming of it as if it was a Golden Age, damn this talk about Depression and Collapse. This might yet be our time. Thank you so much for your comment, and may all the best be with you and yours. |
2008-10-11T01:25:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/10/something-from-nothing/#comment-175 |
| Yes, that's a good way to put it. Ultimately, all that stuff made in China, Korea, et al gave them all the cash. We have overvalued paper, or we did have it and now we're looking for the Chinese to bail us out after we got stuck believing our own bullshit. Wouldn't it have been better to keep making stuff all along so that we had the actual cash? The future will always belong to the nations that make things, assuming they have the financial and governmental framework to go to the next level. That's why I go on about Brasil all the time - they aren't the dictatorship-on-low-boil that China is, nor do they have the imperial ambitions of the Russian mafia state. Ideally, it's all a balance. We create the ideas, we implement them as real things, and the bankers write the loans that make it all possible. Glorifying money fer nuthin' only gets us ... well, where we are now. More to the point, I don't see why this is a radical idea to so many people. |
2008-10-10T15:50:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/10/something-from-nothing/#comment-173 |
| Do they really say what they will do? In this time of economic crisis, have we heard a N-Point Economic Plan with the specifics we all crave at a debate? No, we don't. There are two problems with detailed plans such as we'd all like to know about. The first is that someone is likely to be upset about one or more of the points, meaning there's a risk of alienating those key interest groups in a few states that decide the election. The second problem is that if you do present a highly sanitized plan that has no risk, it's a major snooze-fest. If detailed plans were essential to a Presidental campaign, John Kerry would be President right now. He didn't really come all that close. I pointed out before that the 1932 platform of FDR wasn't all the detailed and much of it wasn't followed at all. We've gotten slightly more vapid over time, but not as much as you might think. Like many human activities, this comes down to tribal identities and getting your tribe to show up. For us Dems, that's the kids this time. Policy? If they want to discuss it, I'm ready - just not holding my breath. |
2008-10-08T00:56:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/08/debatable/#comment-166 |
| You know, I should confess something here. I included Fitzgerald as a beneficiary of the development of the paperback. Actually, his career was made by publishing short stories in magazines before the Depression hit. I didn't mind doing this because the same technology is involved, which is to say binding with a paper spine and glue - and the particular technology that I have in mind will do for both in the new internet age. I feel better for having confessed this. Whew! |
2008-10-07T18:32:15+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/29/paperback/#comment-162 |
| Thank you both. Great additions to the hard nature of this problem. I'm not proposing any solutions here, and I think it would be presumptive to do so. More than anything, I want people to think long and hard about what poses a real threat to their family an what that means to them. From there, we can all make good decisions and have excellent discussions that may point to the right direction. Left unsaid in this essay was another harsh reality In this nation: health care comes from the employer. That's another reason why working as much as you can, if part time, isn't a viable option. This goes back to the "Five Crises" essay I did last month as a real national emergency. |
2008-10-06T15:23:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/06/family-value/#comment-161 |
| Yes, Maris, in many ways it's the same problem today - except twice as bad. And we're at war, among other problems. This is almost my own rebuttal to the last piece. I don't like saying that we're at a turning point in history because history does continue on. Yes, it's all just part of the show, and we are poor players that strut and fret our hour upon the stage and then are heard no more. That's my tale, as it were. |
2008-10-03T01:57:53+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/03/remembering-the-alamo/#comment-151 |
| Ah, yes, China. But are they really interested in oppressing anyone other than their own people? Sure, anyone can get used to imperialism, but China seems as busy with its own crap as it was 2000 years ago. Not to say you may not be right - just that China's world ambitions are a bit baffling. They're not as nakedly imperialistic as we are - yet. |
2008-10-01T12:33:17+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/01/say-what/#comment-146 |
| History doesn't repeat, it rhymes. We won't fall like Rome, but we may fall more like the UK. Their post-Empire period hasn't been all that bad, and I'll bet ours won't be, either. It'll take some getting used to, but the sooner we try the easier it'll be. Is there an Empires Anonymous we can join? |
2008-10-01T04:33:27+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/01/say-what/#comment-144 |
| Janine: I have an idea. If anyone out there knows how to work with pdf formats, I'd love to hear from them. Brian: I think we have a chance to change a lot of things. Paperbacks are about $7 at the cheapest, but I think we can make something that can be sold for about $3 or less. I have a wild idea ... :-) |
2008-09-30T21:26:47+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/29/paperback/#comment-138 |
| We could have a new golden age, and I'm (as always) remarkably hopeful for a cynic. We have a lot of new creative forces coming to bear, and if that's combined with a reduction in price (books are about 70% printing and distribution) we might have more readers. That's the key to it all - finding more readers through new, more socially relevant writing and cost reductions. Besides, the medium will be cheaper than other forms of entertainment, which is always a good thing in a Depression. |
2008-09-29T14:04:29+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/29/paperback/#comment-135 |
| Wow. We're seeing a ig increase in homeless people out here. I do think this will lead to some kind of political violence before we're done. It's degrading very quickly, and we do have some additional bad news. I thought this would hit us in October when the results from the summer quarter come in, but they couldn't hold on any longer. I'm sure if they could have held this past the election they would have, but it's too bad. We finally heard from WaMu, but some big players like GMAC aren't in yet. And we still don't know who will buy all the T-Bills that they plan to sell. This is far from over. |
2008-09-28T01:56:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/26/darkness-rising/#comment-131 |
| It's a slow burn, which is only reasonable. Common sense tells us that we should be slow to anger - but that makes it more intense when it finally comes. There's an Irish proverb to that effect. This is developing. Give it time. |
2008-09-26T18:55:17+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/26/darkness-rising/#comment-125 |
| Though I am a Democrat, I am dismayed at the sanctimony displayed in Congress. How could they not know this was coming? I certainly did. Either they bought the lies or they didn't do their job - and either way they make a lousy opposition. Having said that, the only antidote for lies spreading across the nation and being accepted is for as many people as possible to tell the truth every chance they get. We have to fill the spaces inbetween where the lies are allowed to live like vermin. That's our calling as writers, and nothing less. Perhaps that will create a viable opposition, or even a ruling party with a spine. |
2008-09-25T23:04:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/24/spaces-inbetween/#comment-119 |
| I think Cristy was being facetious. But that was the popular belief, wasn't it? I'm glad you pointed out that we are all humans and subject to human failings. Any great and marvelous "system" that forgets that is doomed to failure. Our whole culture seems to forget this very often, since human frailty is inconvenient, and may be doomed to failure as a result. But you are very, very right, AR, and thanks for bringing it all back to my favorite topic. We are human and we do things for very human reasons. Once we understand that, we have a shot at understanding what's going on around us. |
2008-09-25T17:29:39+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/22/real-growth-real-debt/#comment-117 |
| Ha! Well, I remain a hopeful romantic. I doubt that things will ever be perfect, but right now it doesn't look all that good. As my carpenter Dave said, "People believe in solutions, but it's pretty rare that there even are solutions - just work-arounds". I'm good with that. | 2008-09-24T02:58:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/24/spaces-inbetween/#comment-111 |
| The size of this is simply tremendous. Our total debt is a 1 with 13 zeros after it - one for every stripe on the flag. That's about $100,000 per household. This bailout, when applied back over the last 7 years when the bad debt was created, shows that economic growth has been essentially zero once you take out government spending, mania, and inflation. If anyone asks what we do in this nation, those three are it. Hopefully people understand what I've been saying now. |
2008-09-23T14:21:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/22/real-growth-real-debt/#comment-107 |
| I almost posted a different entry, one with a longer view. We aren't a Capitalist nation, we are a Marketist nation. We value free access to the market over capital, and this belief system was at the core of our policy through the 20th Century - and most of what we've done since Andrew Jackson. That means that the Federal Government is invariably going to be the insurer of last resort. Along with that insurance policy to insure a liquid and functioning market at all times, we have to expect certain Terms and Conditions that we have to sign off on - every insurance policy has a big pile of 'em. These are the regulations we need on derivatives and on the institutions themselves. Allowing institutions to become "too big to fail" is a market flaw both in terms of barriers to entry and eventual bailout costs. Since Glass-Steagel was repealed, there's no firewall between banks and traders, thus making the inurance of last resort far more expensive. We have to look at this. In short, we have to be honest about what we value, who we are, and how we let a bunch of ego-driven idiots fuck things up this bad. And we have to understand that the role of the government isn't something that can be shouted out in pithy lines on a mindless talk show. It's gonna hurt, I admit. And it'll take time, if we can do it at all. But if we can't learn from this mess, we are doomed. |
2008-09-19T00:40:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/19/recovery/#comment-95 |
| I skipped Wall Street because I want to take the long view, as is my wont. I don't want to tell people how to interpret the news, I want to show them. It's the novelist in me. :-) This is a thesis-length argument, and I'll come back to it. I couldn't separate the theory and practice because this is a practice - so here's the summary. I'll provide more details and case studies later. Thanks! |
2008-09-17T01:46:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/17/liber-lectoris/#comment-87 |
| Look, if your team is down by 4 with 42 seconds to go and they throw a "Hail Mary" on first down, you know they'll do the same thing on second, third, and fourth. You don't need to be John Madden to figure that out, and unlike Madden I'm not paid to keep talking about it while they do it. That's all that's going on here - they are desperate. Frankly, I'm desperate when I use complex football analogies in a year when the Dolphins look lousy, but there you go. The point is that this is going just like anyone should expect so far. Why don't Rock Stars smile? Because they are serious artists. It's just like the reason why Supermodels don't smile - they are above you. You follow them because they have a wisdom/insight that you don't. That archetype was set down 200 years ago. Yes, I was writing background for some later political analysis, because I fear Obama is getting to be too much of a Rock Star and not enough of a politician. There is a big, important difference. I'm watching. But you know I love writing about van Beethoven no matter what, yes? ;-) |
2008-09-12T14:33:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/12/rockstar/#comment-69 |
| Maris: Thanks, I just enjoy arts of all kinds. Cooking is just the yummiest of them. Stay at it! Keep the goals in mind! Janine: I'm sure I'll confuse some people. But I can't imagine having nothing more to say about your life than politics. That must be terribly dull. I refuse to be dull, even at the risk of being misunderstood horribly. |
2008-09-10T18:29:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/10/cooking/#comment-65 |
| You know, the funny thing is that it was either this topic or mythology. I have a lot of books on mythology and a partner that wrote her thesis on mythological frames in politics. The only reason I didn't write on that topic is that I'm sick of politics (see last week as to why). So I'm good with the minotaur. |
2008-09-08T02:19:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/08/bookshelves/#comment-61 |
| Thanks, everyone. I'm pretty tired of all this, too, but it's an important event in our culture. We get a snapshot as to how everyone really feels about significant cultural issues once every 4 years, and it's worth taking note of. You can't just go with the standard reasons people do things that you hear on the nooze, however, so it's tricky. But I make a point of enjoying it. That is, I did enjoy it. I'm rather sick of it now. |
2008-09-08T00:24:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/05/rnc-ends-not-a-moment-too-soon/#comment-58 |
| Thanks! I'm walking around today with a 3x5 card around my neck that says "RESIDENT - ST PAUL" on the assumption it will get me access to anywhere. If only the election were over soon, too. Ah, well. |
2008-09-05T13:32:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/05/rnc-ends-not-a-moment-too-soon/#comment-54 |
| "The Children's Crusade" is the subtitle of "Slaughterhouse 5". I had to use it. The problem always comes when everyone gets tired and the cops start to over-react. It always happens. Meanwhile, the causers of trouble have a lot of fresh news to get otherwise sane people riled up. And so it goes. Meanwhile, I'm suffering from Hyperbole Induced Sleepiness Syndrome (HISSy). I need to take more than a strong half-step back. |
2008-09-03T19:19:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/03/the-childrens-crusade/#comment-50 |
| Thanks, Janine. Yes, the ugliness is the real issue. I'd like to hope the regulars "get it" by now, but perhaps I should keep harping on it just in case. I don't understand why people don't want to work for beauty more than toyz and all the other crap our culture has. It is, at the least, a question that needs to be asked. |
2008-09-03T04:22:43+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/02/concrete-and-life/#comment-46 |
| That wall runs down the middle of Chestnut Street, one block off of my house on Walnut. To put such ugliness so close to me has made me very sad. I spent my day as a Legal Observer at three arrests, taking pics of the proceedings. One of them involved about 100 people and was very near my house. The site of 200 police in full riot gear and the Coast Guard out on the Mississippi with AR-15s is not one I will soon forget. They have taken my city from me. The loss is very painful. |
2008-09-02T04:54:25+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/01/the-rnc-wall/#comment-41 |
| I think that she, as a person, may be allright. Give that she lives as far away as Wasilla, Alaska, it doesn't matter much to me whether she is or not. But Veep? Granted, it's not "Worth more than a bucket of warm spit," in the words of John Nance Gardner, but still ... |
2008-08-30T15:55:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/29/convention-tidbits/#comment-36 |
| Yes, that's a lot of what's going on. Susan Collins and Elizabeth Dole are in tough races, but why not Olympia Snowe or Kay Hutchinson? I can see they wanted a young woman, sure, but it's a risky pick. Translating from my Minnesota understatement, "a tad desperate"means "embarrassingly desperate". :-) I agree that the problem lately has been the democrats screwing up. We have to keep our eyes on the prize, we have to be the ones who re-invent this nation. The other guys won't. |
2008-08-29T19:34:09+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/29/convention-tidbits/#comment-33 |
| Thanks, everyone. The goal is to get some discussion going about difficult topics so that we have the appropriate pressure on the party machinations. I hope that's possible. As FDR used to tell people who came into his office, "You've convinced me, now go out and put pressure on me." I also want to say that I'm not against having a strong military, but I am against having one that is so strong it becomes too easy for the pols to send them off to do missions they can't do well. As in the Tao Te Ching, "The strongest general keeps his sword sheathed". Getting past the Five Crises is all about brave leadership, and I think we might just have it on the way. But it is needed, and badly so. |
2008-08-29T14:55:22+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/29/five-crises/#comment-29 |
| Love is an imperfect word, but I happen to think it's close. It's some kind of affair of the heart. What prompted me to post this was how terribly the CNN heads were talking strategies to heal the party, followed by a cut to floor interviews full of passion and hurt. The disconnect was amazing to me. Take this post as something like what I'd say if I was on CNN. You can see how I don't fit their mold on both length and content! :-) |
2008-08-28T14:51:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/27/hillary/#comment-23 |
| Janine, our leaders have to deal with it. I'm doing my best to be sure it's done in an upfront manner by talking about it. Please, spread the word. This is one of the biggest issues of our day and we all have to deal with it at some point. You won't read about it in the mainstream press until it bubbles up to the surface, and that's what I hope to do by publishing it here. | 2008-08-27T20:31:50+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/27/dead-men-walking/#comment-20 |
| Thanks! Yes, it used to be much harder to craft the printed word. That's the real "problem" we have right now. It's not a problem if people read more, and I'm making a point of doing that. We need to communicate more if we're going to be a coherent society, that I'm sure of. Perhaps all the chatter will lead to that once we figger out what we're doing. There's always hope. | 2008-08-27T20:29:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/07/28/writing-bubble/#comment-19 |
| Thanks, everyone, I do appreciate it. We're going to go through an exciting time, a phrase I never thought I'd apply to anything involving Joe Biden. But that's just part of the excitement, eh? | 2008-08-25T02:31:30+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/25/let-the-real-games-begin/#comment-11 |
| My life isn't easy - why should I make yours easy? :-) | 2008-08-24T23:37:16+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/22/soul-mate/#comment-6 |
Click the map to create your own at
Barataria - The work of Erik Hare / erikhare.com
I don't break news, I fix it.
| Comment | Date | Name | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed, thank you! | 2018-06-25T16:43:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/06/25/fact-based-policy/#comment-56785 |
| I would not be so sure that your family was completely legal. Many, many people came here after 1924 in violation of the quotas that were put in place. I would advise checking that out carefully. And there is no shame in how "our people" came here, some of mine were indeed refugees. The definition of "illegal" is what is at issue here. Yes, a law was passed and people are not allowed in. Is that law reasonable or just? Is that law actually who we are as a people? That is what has to change. And it can. We have to be better. There is no doubt in my mind that there will be a greater demand for immigrants, not less. As it is, the current crackdown has many crops rotting in fields. We have no connection between our policies and reality. Why not? Why are we so very nasty when it is clear there is work to be done left undone by those who are here? None of it makes sense. That's the problem, and that's something I'll get into more later. Meanwhile, there is this piece from 4.5 years ago which I stand behind still: https://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/ |
2018-06-20T15:47:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/06/20/the-road-to-hell/#comment-56704 |
| I suppose that I should add that this post is in response to several conversations I've had with people defending the administration. Most of the excuses I cannot stand, and frankly bring me to tears thinking that people can make excuses for child abuse. But those who have said that "Clinton did it, too!" were not offering a valid excuse but they sure had a point. They forced me to consider again what I've long known - that our immigration policies are a horror. So I should thank them for that lesson. | 2018-06-20T15:42:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/06/20/the-road-to-hell/#comment-56703 |
| I think that they have a path to promote China through economic and diplomatic power. I expect them to stay with that. Their ability to project power outside their borders is very limited. Even with the sea trials of the (unnamed) second aircraft carrier they really can't create too much havoc. | 2018-05-21T18:18:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/21/moving-beyond-the-us/#comment-56123 |
| Thanks. it is irreversible at this point, it's only a matter of how fast our position will melt down. It appears that this will be quick. We have this statement today: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44200621 (Note: This is not possible, given that the SWIFT network will remain connected.) |
2018-05-21T18:07:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/21/moving-beyond-the-us/#comment-56121 |
| This is the end of the American Empire, for sure. We will have no allies once this is all done. | 2018-05-09T16:36:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/09/eight-reasons-why-ending-the-iran-deal-is-stupid/#comment-55886 |
| We learned nothing. Not a thing. | 2018-05-09T16:36:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/09/eight-reasons-why-ending-the-iran-deal-is-stupid/#comment-55885 |
| Thanks. | 2018-05-09T16:36:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/09/eight-reasons-why-ending-the-iran-deal-is-stupid/#comment-55884 |
| We are indeed only at the beginning. There is still time to undo this damage, but not much. | 2018-05-09T16:36:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/05/09/eight-reasons-why-ending-the-iran-deal-is-stupid/#comment-55883 |
| No. Are you assuming that mass media manipulation in bulk is equally as effective as personalized, targeted messages that speak directly to an individuals values, fears, and experiences? |
2018-03-20T19:06:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/03/19/culture-war-meets-cyber-war/#comment-54912 |
| Part of me agrees with you. We have to be more intelligent about all of the information we consume. But there is also a public trust issue that I think calls for disclosure, the bedrock of regulation. What I'm seeing about the UK law, requiring disclosure of how information is used, I like. | 2018-03-20T19:04:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/03/19/culture-war-meets-cyber-war/#comment-54911 |
| And it happens constantly, usually by people with something to sell you. Politics? Feh. | 2018-03-20T19:03:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/03/19/culture-war-meets-cyber-war/#comment-54910 |
| The last few months show an acceleration. It's very not good. | 2018-02-14T20:31:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/14/inflation-is-back/#comment-54354 |
| I know for a fact that many people do not consider me to be a Christian. I have been told this directly. And I do not begrudge anyone their beliefs, certainly. But when they say their beliefs came from Jesus and they most certainly did not? What should we say? I see nothing wrong with asserting that those who do not follow what Jesus taught are not actually Christian. This does not condemn them to Hell or anything like that. It simply means that wherever they got their beliefs it certainly wasn't from Jesus. And I think we can easily show that. |
2018-02-07T18:36:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-54213 |
| Thank you. I explained a little more in the follow-up as to what to watch. Your point about controlling immigration in the face of full employment is also critical. There is often little that policy can do to make things much better, but it can always make things much worse. We are seeing that, I'm afraid. |
2018-02-07T18:20:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54212 |
| My pleasure! Please, any questions you might have I'll do my best to answer or at least find a good article that addresses them. | 2018-02-07T16:51:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/07/where-do-stocks-go-now/#comment-54208 |
| You are right, I have neglected all signs of a recession. My general assumption is that the underlying economy is strong. But there is a chance that short-term rates might bid up first and the curve inverts. That would be very bad. | 2018-02-07T16:51:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/07/where-do-stocks-go-now/#comment-54207 |
| Yes, it is about the debt at some point. I'm all in favor of a budget being out of whack in a major downturn, as it was in 2008-2012. But right now it should be balanced or even in surplus. To me, the fact that the Feds do not separate ordinary expenditures from capital expenditures is appalling. Racking up debt as a legitimate investment is one thing, but just to pay the bills? The ultimate amount is still important, but the first question we should be asking is why we have a deficit. If it's for infrastructure, it may be justified. So there are many ways to look at this as far as I am concerned. All of them point to this being a terrible way to run things right now. And there will be a reckoning - I think very shortly given the three things I have pointed out coming together. |
2018-02-06T17:36:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54189 |
| Yes, but I said the same thing with more words and a few graphs. :-) Seriously, that is about how it goes. There are some underlying reasons as to why, for those who want to get into it, but intuition can tell you a lot as well. | 2018-02-06T17:33:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54188 |
| The market got ahead of itself, is all. https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-02-05/stock-investors-don-t-need-to-worry-about-bonds-just-yet This is a good article which attempts to justify the current stock market valuation. But I think it fails for the reasons outlined in the above piece. The mark they set for justifying current valuation is a 10yr yield at 4.2%. At 2.8% they are not worried. If you take a net spread between the FFR and the 10yr of around 1.2, as it is now, we could easily see a FFR around 3.0 and a 10yr at 4.2. But it's more reasonable that we'll go more in the 3.5 FFR and a more average 1.6 spread, or 5.1. And worst case is more in the 5.0 and 2.0 range in the next 2 years, or a 10yr of 7% !! So what is the market worth? I'd say we have to lose about 20-25%, which is one Hell of a haircut. That puts the DJIA under 20k, for example, maybe as low as 18k. It's not that the economy isn't strong, it's that it's so strong and the deficit is growing, meaning the 10yr just plain has to rise - perhaps substantially. |
2018-02-05T22:03:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54171 |
| We are in the same range. I'm doing my best to come up with some good predictions for my next post, but to be honest the chartist people I've read so far are really in denial. I can't find support levels which make a lot of sense to me. | 2018-02-05T21:57:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54170 |
| It was and was not a bubble. If you believe the best case scenario, valuations were justified. If anything went wrong not so much. That's where we are at - things are going wrong. | 2018-02-05T21:57:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2018/02/05/why-stocks-are-falling/#comment-54169 |
| Basically, Yes! That is about it. And so the Pope and the Dalai Lama are one. :-) | 2017-12-16T21:30:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/15/sermon-on-the-mount/#comment-53546 |
| How it got where it is remains a mystery to me, I have to say. I have long thought about charting out all the various Christian faiths and laying out the key differences to gain some insight as to how so many extra-Christian things were absorbed. On a personal note, among my eight great-grandparents there are eight difference Christian faiths. I have spent a lifetime trying to understand this. |
2017-12-16T21:30:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/15/sermon-on-the-mount/#comment-53545 |
| Thank you very much. I hope to challenge just the right amount to open hearts and minds to possibilities. If nothing else, we have much more reason to get along than to be in conflict. I'd like to start there. | 2017-12-16T21:27:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53544 |
| Thank you, and Merry Christmas. I am doing my best and hope to keep doing it. | 2017-12-16T21:27:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53543 |
| Thank you. | 2017-12-16T21:25:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53542 |
| Thank you very much. Yes, you caught me! I am preaching, indeed. I don't really want to, but I feel that this is a message that the world needs. I want to present it with humility and as much care as possible. | 2017-12-16T21:24:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53541 |
| I believe there is. | 2017-12-16T21:24:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/13/what-did-jesus-teach-and-why/#comment-53540 |
| A very, very good point. | 2017-12-16T21:22:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53539 |
| Thank you. Exactly what to make of the Old Testament is difficult. I later presented the Sermon on the Mount exactly as it is because that is where my sense of faith, the Anabaptists or Amish/Mennonite/Brethren comes from. No matter what, I think that seeing it all through the grace of Jesus has to be a starting point - which is to say starting with love and decency. If someone or some faith is opposed to homosexuality I can understand this, but I cannot understand being nasty. | 2017-12-16T21:22:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53538 |
| Very good. There is a lot of historical interpretation, and I am willing to accept that. For example, Evangelium Vitae teaches that the Catholic Church is pro-life in every possible sense of the term. Is that exactly what Jesus taught? No, but it is consistent and honorable. It is also taught in a way that emphasizes the direction of the hearts of believers and not political action in conflict with other institutions which include non-believers. It's completely different in that sense. | 2017-12-16T21:18:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53537 |
| It most definitely is not. Their agenda is NOT the Bible, not by a longshot. It is made up and they use Jesus for cover. It is despicable if you ask me. People can be against abortion and I can understand that. Don't tell me Jesus said so. And don't lie and treat people like dirt for not following that false witness against Jesus. | 2017-12-16T21:13:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53535 |
| Thank you. Yes, we can all find various things we like or dislike in any statement of faith. But we also all know decency when we see it, and that is indeed the root of the teachings of Jesus and his followers. So let's just start there and point out where that failure occurs. It's pretty straightforward and easy. | 2017-12-16T21:12:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53534 |
| It is beyond astonishing that they follow that man. He fits the description of Satan so much better than that of Jesus. It's not my place to anyone who is worthy of following, but I can say that this is clearly not what Jesus taught. I also prefer King James, as I was raised with it. But the language of the NIV is more contemporary, so I thought it would reach a wider audience. :-) |
2017-12-16T21:10:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53533 |
| Thank you. I have had my fill of this and have decided it's long past time for me to be shy about my own personal studies and beliefs. I do not wish to be like them so I've been private for a long time. But that silence is starting to feel like complicity. | 2017-12-16T21:08:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/11/evangelicals-are-not-christians/#comment-53532 |
| Again, it's presented here without comment for you to make up your own mind. For one, it's worth comparing to what you have been told Christianity is about. For another, I could go through paragraph by paragraph and point out the parts which are Jewish, Buddhist, Daoist, or a mixture. What is important here is that the actual words of Jesus are almost never presented unfiltered. I find that appalling, especially for such an historically important figure. | 2017-12-15T00:27:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/12/15/sermon-on-the-mount/#comment-53469 |
| It it, indeed, but people are watching. That hasn't always been true. | 2017-11-27T18:12:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/27/taxing-times/#comment-53209 |
| And it is likely to happen at some point here, if it hasn't already. I can't see the Democrats raising much without any kind of plan, and the Republicans are unlikely to produce anything. So gridlock may actually be good for something? | 2017-11-27T18:12:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/27/taxing-times/#comment-53208 |
| I hope that we are indeed really trashing "The Great Man Theory" all together. Then again, look at what a hero some have made of Tesla in the process of trashing Edison. Truth is somewhere in between, both men were mortals. | 2017-11-17T21:40:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/17/hero-worship/#comment-53055 |
| Yes, a good point. | 2017-11-17T21:38:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/17/hero-worship/#comment-53054 |
| It is unfair to compare Sanders, and I did not mean to. There is a lot of hope that in defeat his supporters are turning towards running for local offices themselves, which is exactly what has to be done. So that alone is a critical difference. People always have their heroes, I guess, and it is hard to say exactly why. But I do think that taken to the extreme, that only a hero or a christ figure can save us, is a recipe for something horrible. |
2017-11-17T21:38:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/17/hero-worship/#comment-53053 |
| Thank you! | 2017-11-10T20:54:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/10/good-people/#comment-52938 |
| I am pretty sure this is what a lot of people, especially the third or so that is "independent," tend to do. You put up good people and you win the independent vote. That's about all there is. | 2017-11-10T20:54:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/10/good-people/#comment-52937 |
| Thank you very much. This takes me back to my childhood, when some of this was still around. | 2017-11-09T21:12:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/songs-poems/short-stories/cutler/#comment-52931 |
| Someone asked me in mail how this would stop over-regulation or arguments that we are over-regulated. I would say this - I think we can see what percentage of all regulations are at various levels and judge from there. I would think a split on levels 1/2/3/4 would be around 52/27/14/7 percent - which is to say each more onerous level is 1/2 as common as the previous one. If it doesn't come out that way, why? It would give us a way of judging how tough things are and how focused they are on the goals. | 2017-11-06T02:33:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/06/regulation-something-different/#comment-52862 |
| I think that maybe we should start with small things we can sneak through. It would help build a centrist coalition through shared work and common purpose. This is a strategy much better suite for someone in congress, not in the position I have as a nobody, but it's an idea. | 2017-11-06T02:29:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/06/regulation-something-different/#comment-52861 |
| Regarding racism and sexism, which are very similar in many ways - I do think that European Americans, especially men, do understand at their core that they are privileged. We are members of a ruling class. The problem comes when so many of us are struggling on a daily basis just like anyone else. There's a disconnect there between what we feel in our guts, learned at a young age, and the reality of the world. Someone lied to us, and it's much easier to say that the adult everyday life is simply corrupt and holding us back than to challenge the beliefs at our core, to realize that we are not an inherent ruling class. Perhaps that is what has broken down. There is definitely a rise of those who are different - by race, by gender and sexual preference, by non-Christian faith - which is itself something of a backlash to the enforced homogeny of our world. Feminism is much more difficult, as I said before, because it works through so many people with so many experiences and it redefines the family, but it is also rising up and challenging the conformity. We have to deal with it. I see a lot of good things here, and thank you all for it. I am focusing on conformity right now, along with the idea that privilege is actually well understood at a gut level. I am also thinking about how we just start making headway one issue at a time, acknowledging that shared work is the best way to bring people together. |
2017-11-03T15:56:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/03/the-core-sickness/#comment-52794 |
| Ignoring those in pain is probably a good start, but I'd like to offer them something to heal their pain. We need to get beyond it somehow. I do think being a lot more formal, essentially backing up a bit, would help a lot. There is a basic assumption that we are all the same or that we should be, which sounds like a noble expression of egalitarianism. It doesn't always work out that way, as Marlene pointed out. There has to be room for people to be different and comfortable expressing that. | 2017-11-03T15:50:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/03/the-core-sickness/#comment-52792 |
| So you see some of the symptoms as a diseases in themselves, a general neglect of everything that would make us "one people"? I can see that, but I wonder if there isn't one bigger thing at the core. For example, in the two party problem (which I agree is a problem) - why aren't we demanding better? Why did about half of voters pick an obviously unthnking, immoral person under the guise of just draining the swamp, burning it all down, causing change any way they could? Why not organize for more effective change? There is a terrible neglect of the public space of our world, a huge tragedy of the commons. That's why I go to excessive individualism. I don't disagree that fixing each of these one at a time may be the only thing we have to do, but we have to get people engaged before any good solution will happen for any of them. I don't see that happening in a constructive way right now. |
2017-11-03T15:10:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/03/the-core-sickness/#comment-52790 |
| Thank you. I know my initial impulse in terms of moral / emotional crisis is not a good one, which is why I asked. Perhaps less has actually changed than we think, we're just more aware of it now than we used to be. Confronting things like racism is very painful and it is causing people to feel like they are under siege. Confront sexism is only going to be worse as it is embedded in every family structure. European Americans, white people, are very conformist by nature. But what is expected of us today, in a more diverse world? Is it possibly the opposite of individualism which is breaking down, was I completely 180 degrees off? Perhaps. |
2017-11-03T15:06:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/11/03/the-core-sickness/#comment-52788 |
| It is both a new policy and an extension of the old policy. We're in it for ourselves. | 2017-09-22T16:18:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/20/united-nations-sort-of/#comment-51799 |
| It's not Obamacare the clock is running out on, it's just the ability to repeal it with only 50 votes. | 2017-09-22T16:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/22/life-support/#comment-51798 |
| I would love to read that, and I am thinking about it for People's Economics. The thing is that no other nation has the problem the way we do. We can find literally dozens of good systems which work better than ours. It doesn't really seem to matter which model we choose - the commitment to quality care without someone outside the system making a profit is critical. Incidentally, it's not just profit which is a problem, but a lack of uniform billing - it takes loads of worker hours just to figure out a bill and then how to pay a bill, etc. I was just told by someone in a biz like this that they offer a 30% cash discount because they don't have the insurance hassles. There you go. | 2017-09-06T02:49:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51610 |
| Indeed, with all of the training necessary to be a pharmacist, I see no reason why they couldn't prescribe things like this. In Germany there is a national registration so my use of antibiotics would be recorded. I think this is reasonable - it's not good to use them willy-nilly. But a pharmacist can certainly handle this. Nurses can handle many small things, too. That is definitely part of the lesson here. | 2017-09-06T02:46:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51609 |
| It is dysfunctional in so many ways, it's hard to know where to start. There is no clear knowledge of what anything "costs" or what's really involved. | 2017-09-06T02:44:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51608 |
| Exactly! This wasn't a very good experiment, was it? But then again, I wanted to get it over with. | 2017-09-06T02:43:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51607 |
| A quick search gave me no idea how much it "really costs". It will take time, so I decided to write this blankly. Yes, I would like to know. I was thinking about trying some neosporin, but it is my eye .... pH differences and all, so I didn't. I thought I'd try to do it "right". My guess is that the $252 is the insurance cost, which is to say that they can get away with it. Some guy off the street? I wonder what the brand-name expensive one was now. | 2017-09-06T02:43:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51606 |
| I was thinking the same thing. I am guessing that she has no idea what things cost. | 2017-09-06T02:41:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/09/06/pay-as-you-go/#comment-51605 |
| You are right! Thinking about it, the way kids get interested is that they want to build robots. They start with legos and learn to bolt and rivet and machine. Some of them then want to go back and have solid instruction on the real basics of machining or similar. But it starts out with a desire to make something useful and fun, usually something which has a lot of different skills tied together. | 2017-08-18T17:00:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-51287 |
| There may not be a general "hate speech" category, but in the case of Nazism it does seem that a good case can be made that this is all about killing and death. | 2017-08-18T15:32:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/18/fighting-words/#comment-51285 |
| It's really about the equipment needed and the level of skill. It may not be important at all. I do think that it's generally going to be best to start with the original ones and work to higher skills, but some people are going to have an interest in the advanced ones right away, yes. | 2017-08-18T15:29:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-51284 |
| I don’t believe it’s gotten that bad yet, but I understand How you might come to the conclusion that it has. Or is at the very least close to it. But I think we can both understand that a civilized Democratic Republic cannot be there, no matter what. I would like to start with that |
2017-08-18T00:44:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/18/fighting-words/#comment-51271 |
| I think that's what we all want. Sadly, we can only make it stop for ourselves. | 2017-08-17T20:47:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/16/beyond-good-and-evil/#comment-51268 |
| Anyone may use any content here as long as there is attribution. I would prefer that this comes in the form of a link. By all means, use what you want - and feel free to go back through some of the more constructive conversations on People's Economics and so on. Thanks! | 2017-08-15T16:38:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51239 |
| Is that flag "fighting words," and thus not protected? Part of me thinks it is. I really hate to go there, but it is something to think about. When I see a swastika I immediately become outraged - and I don't outrage easily. It's way, way over the line. | 2017-08-15T16:37:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51238 |
| They can't play the game anymore, it's clearly not a game. Where we go from here will be telling. It may be how it all had to come down for us to confront the ghosts which haunt us directly. This may simply be how our generation has to finish the struggle engaged long ago. | 2017-08-15T16:35:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51236 |
| A good point, it has not been resolved in our hearts. Previous generations thought it was, and died to make it so. But it's still there. There is something about Virginia and that is what I was trying to capture. It knows better, but it has trouble acting better. Always has. In that way it's a crystallized essence of all of America. |
2017-08-15T16:34:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51235 |
| Amen - history teaches us a lot if we are willing to learn. | 2017-08-15T16:32:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51234 |
| Thank you! | 2017-08-15T16:32:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51233 |
| It's our generation's turn. What will we do? It won't take 400,000 Americans dying, but are we willing to give what it takes? | 2017-08-15T16:31:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51232 |
| Thank you very much. | 2017-08-15T16:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/14/the-bright-red-line/#comment-51231 |
| Being able to survive on your own in the wilderness is an amazing set of skills. I am always fascinating by this. | 2017-08-04T21:19:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/26/resiliency-and-interdependence/#comment-51138 |
| This is what it will take to stop him. | 2017-08-04T21:18:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/04/firehose-of-falsehood/#comment-51137 |
| Indeed, it seems endless. The example of MH17 being shot down was illustrative. They were caught fabricating a photo of it being shot down from a plane and then went right on to keep denying and pushing other theories. | 2017-08-04T21:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/04/firehose-of-falsehood/#comment-51136 |
| Yes, it is. | 2017-08-02T20:50:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/02/putin-global-menace/#comment-51104 |
| This can only be described as a diversion. I didn't mention the activities of many nations, including the US, Iran, UK, Saudi Arabia, etc. Are we to imply from your posting that there is an equivalence implied? Or that we can't possibly do anything about Russia because our nation does awful things? None of these statements make any sense. This testimony stands on its own, as it should. Please stop with the diversions, no matter what your intentions are. |
2017-08-02T20:50:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/02/putin-global-menace/#comment-51103 |
| There is no way to stop this. Are we the global police? I don't see that we can be. But we need to be honest about what we are dealing with - and Putin is clearly a threat. | 2017-08-02T20:48:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/02/putin-global-menace/#comment-51102 |
| Yes, there is no doubt this will all be connected. The main focus of Brower is the warning that everything in Russia is perfectly corrupt and organized from the top. And that they will do anything. | 2017-08-02T14:48:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/08/02/putin-global-menace/#comment-51091 |
| Not exactly. But let's ditch the -isms anyway. :-) | 2017-07-31T18:41:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/31/never-ending-sequels/#comment-51073 |
| THAT is what I'm writing about. | 2017-07-31T18:41:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/31/never-ending-sequels/#comment-51072 |
| It's from the Depression, essentially, but it's been very addictive since then. | 2017-07-31T18:40:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/31/never-ending-sequels/#comment-51071 |
| Thank you, I will do that! |
2017-07-31T18:40:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/26/how-economics-fails/#comment-51070 |
| Thank you, that is a good quote and I am going to use that in People's Economics. I have been wondering how to introduce Freakanomics to my work and this is a good way to go about it. | 2017-07-31T14:12:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/26/how-economics-fails/#comment-51063 |
| Exactly. This is the company where workers in China went to the roof and threatened to jump off en masse if working conditions didn't improve. | 2017-07-31T14:12:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/31/never-ending-sequels/#comment-51062 |
| It will be wonderful! | 2017-07-25T20:58:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/24/schmidt-rathskeller/#comment-50956 |
| Thank you! | 2017-07-21T17:07:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/14/peoples-economics-the-fundraiser/#comment-50908 |
| Yes. It is a new era of exploration - of the universe, but more importantly of what it means to be human! | 2017-07-21T17:06:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/17/female-lead/#comment-50907 |
| I think I do have something. It's going along well. It may be more Democratic, yes, as I am one. But it's definitely a game-changer if you think it through. | 2017-07-21T14:59:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/19/stands-for-nuthin/#comment-50904 |
| Thank you for your support! | 2017-07-21T14:59:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/19/stands-for-nuthin/#comment-50902 |
| Yes, it's just more nonsense. Let's start with this: http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-uranium-russia-deal/ But no matter what, it's nothing compared to being a major money launderer for the Bratva. Especially when they wind up electing you president. There is simply no comparison here, and trying to make one is foolish. |
2017-07-21T14:59:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/21/frenzy/#comment-50901 |
| Thank you! | 2017-07-21T14:58:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/21/frenzy/#comment-50900 |
| Pretty much. No matter how you feel about the guy, the fact that this was lost is just strange. | 2017-07-21T14:57:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/21/frenzy/#comment-50899 |
| By all means, use anything you like as long as there is attribution. Thanks! | 2017-07-20T17:21:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50884 |
| To some extent, it's always been like this. We're just seeing it more clearly now. But yes, it is terribly disheartening. | 2017-07-10T16:11:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/10/character/#comment-50727 |
| It should be. See the above comment, there is a reason for it. Jargon is everywhere, but it is potentially dangerous. | 2017-07-05T14:01:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/05/isms/#comment-50673 |
| I'd appreciate your questions and additions. Seriously, if you could take the time it would surely make things better. Emanuel Macron - "We don't need new ideologies, we need new methods." |
2017-07-05T14:01:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/05/isms/#comment-50672 |
| Bingo. But we have to contend with this nonsense. Labels are an important way that people who don't really understand everything can be a part of the conversation. There's a yin and yang to that. On the one hand, in a representative democracy people do need to be engaged, even partially. On the other hand .... well, what I wrote about here. At this point, I have to agree with you. -isms are really just dangerous. |
2017-07-05T13:59:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/05/isms/#comment-50671 |
| Thanks! | 2017-07-03T19:11:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/03/independence/#comment-50650 |
| Thank you, all the best to you! | 2017-07-03T19:11:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/03/independence/#comment-50649 |
| Thanks! But I see a small mistake to correct ... :-) | 2017-07-03T19:11:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/03/independence/#comment-50648 |
| Thank you! | 2017-07-03T19:11:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/07/03/independence/#comment-50647 |
| Bingo. We could learn from that, IMHO! | 2017-07-03T19:10:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/30/150-years-of-canada/#comment-50646 |
| It will be good. Cheers! | 2017-07-03T19:10:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50645 |
| But it is good - the beer, too. :-) | 2017-07-03T19:10:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/30/150-years-of-canada/#comment-50644 |
| You win this round😃 | 2017-06-30T00:16:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50613 |
| Thank you! There is a big turning point in the growth of an organization or a business and this is just one of the things which feeds into it. Someone who is good at starting something may not be good at sustaining it. I don't know that this is the most important part of the differences in mindset but I suspect it is there. Thanks for your observation! | 2017-06-28T15:44:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50589 |
| Thanks! | 2017-06-28T15:43:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50588 |
| Not really, it's just a "thing". I was told about it and have always found it hilarious. How much faith do you have in Canadian Tire versus, say, the national government? :-) | 2017-06-28T15:43:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/28/keeping-score/#comment-50587 |
| Yes! That isn't my main point, but I think it is a valid way of looking at it. My main point is that something new, which is based on people and delivered to people, has to be the answer. | 2017-06-26T16:18:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/26/how-economics-fails/#comment-50546 |
| I think I have less of a clue as to what it's for every day. | 2017-06-26T16:17:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/26/how-economics-fails/#comment-50545 |
| Thank you very much it was my pleasure to have you visit | 2017-06-26T01:27:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/21/47-irvine-park-the-spencer-house/#comment-50528 |
| Thanks. It is time. | 2017-06-21T15:25:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/21/47-irvine-park-the-spencer-house/#comment-50473 |
| It has to happen, for a lot of reasons. Time to reboot my life. | 2017-06-21T15:25:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/21/47-irvine-park-the-spencer-house/#comment-50472 |
| It is about the free market - what it takes to make and sustain one. I will heed your warning gladly. Thanks! | 2017-06-20T20:25:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/19/peoples-economics-the-campfire/#comment-50458 |
| Will do. I think roundtable discussion is at least called for - with regular, non-university folks. |
2017-06-20T20:24:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/19/peoples-economics-the-campfire/#comment-50457 |
| Thanks. I think philosophy is a good enough word. | 2017-06-20T20:24:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/19/peoples-economics-the-campfire/#comment-50456 |
| Any useful analysis of economics includes prediction. And that can't happen without understanding people. Simply understanding that it's about much more than numbers leads us to take people's choices into consideration, which is to say look at people. It changes your mind immediately as to what is important. Money doesn't make decisions. It is just a way of keeping score. |
2017-06-20T20:23:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/19/peoples-economics-the-campfire/#comment-50455 |
| Thank you! You have a good one there. It's one I'm loathe to make good use of for strange reasons. I need to get over it. | 2017-06-20T20:22:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/16/foresttrees-campfire/#comment-50454 |
| I think I have to. It's the calling. | 2017-06-16T20:27:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/16/foresttrees-campfire/#comment-50374 |
| Yes. But she thought she could pull this off. I think she is wrong. Let's see. | 2017-06-15T16:47:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/14/objectivity-is-dead-journalism-must-live/#comment-50343 |
| Only we, the consumers, can make it about more than our money. I hope I can provide tools for evaluating quality so that the free market can work more effectively. | 2017-06-15T16:46:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/14/objectivity-is-dead-journalism-must-live/#comment-50342 |
| I agree it isn't journalism because it will not enlighten. She also is going to be sucked into the next chapter of his story, which is a huge journalism no-no. | 2017-06-15T16:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/14/objectivity-is-dead-journalism-must-live/#comment-50341 |
| Let's see how she does. I predict that no one can take him on successfully in a setting devoid of context. Only the Sandy Hook parents can take him down. | 2017-06-15T16:45:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/14/objectivity-is-dead-journalism-must-live/#comment-50340 |
| It does need more. But perhaps not as much as you might think - Macron is indeed the point. | 2017-06-15T16:44:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/12/forward-america/#comment-50339 |
| I agree. The idea is to generate excitement with the shiny object of tech. It isn't enough by itself, so success early on with transforming lives will have to be reached. So your criticism is not only valid, it points to the primary goal - generate some real "Oprah moments". | 2017-06-15T16:43:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/12/forward-america/#comment-50338 |
| But I already knew all that! ;-) |
2017-06-09T18:07:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/09/progress-2/#comment-50256 |
| They may be. But it will be a slow process. | 2017-06-09T18:06:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/09/progress-2/#comment-50255 |
| Good point. I lost track of that one. Yeesh. | 2017-06-08T19:35:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/07/the-crazy-peaks/#comment-50241 |
| This is a tribal identity, first and foremost. I would say that a solid third or so on each side is completely intractable and unable to be reasonable. I do favor one side over the other, sure, but there is always room to argue. | 2017-06-08T19:34:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/07/the-crazy-peaks/#comment-50240 |
| Probably only once Democrats take it. See the "logic" above for an example as to how everyone can talk past each other and ignore the obvious mental deficiencies on "their side". | 2017-06-07T17:32:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/07/the-crazy-peaks/#comment-50227 |
| And this disconnected statement has to do with the topic at hand in what way? | 2017-06-07T17:31:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/07/the-crazy-peaks/#comment-50226 |
| His accent sounds so innocent most of the time. He's like a little kid commenting on how crazy the "adults" are. I really like him. | 2017-06-05T13:58:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/05/fun-with-funny/#comment-50198 |
| The fun ... :-) | 2017-06-05T13:58:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/05/fun-with-funny/#comment-50197 |
| Ha! Yes, well ... some of us are more like that than others .. :-) | 2017-06-02T20:44:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50145 |
| Thank you! |
2017-06-02T20:44:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50144 |
| Indeed. We have a lot of work to do. | 2017-06-02T20:44:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50143 |
| My pleasure, and thank you for reading! | 2017-06-02T15:02:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50137 |
| That is definitely Problem A. But I do think that in gender issues it's really a small minority who are genuinely sexist about this and are totally focused on maintaining their power and privilege. They are by far the most vocal, too, so they dominate all discussion. That has to change. | 2017-06-02T15:01:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50136 |
| Yes, the rapid change. What is expected of us in this new world? It's a lot less clear. Most men I know have been caught in a trap where they were trying to do the right thing but it came out wrong somehow. Little things like trying to be just the right level of supportive without dominating or "manspalining" are minefields. Yes, we need to be a culture of empowerment. None of us will get it right all the time, but we have to at least try - and keep an open dialogue. Language is crucial for this. As it stands now far too much of our gender language puts everything, absolutely everything, on women. That has to change. |
2017-06-02T15:00:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50135 |
| Yes, Women's Rights are Human Rights. I am attempting to engage in a conversation beyond where we usually do, however. Men need to be a part of this, especially the men who never speak up because their voices are a bit unsure. | 2017-06-02T14:57:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/06/02/mens-issues/#comment-50134 |
| It is comical, at least from afar. Here it is tragedy. How anyone can believe this con artist is beyond me. | 2017-06-02T14:56:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50133 |
| Far too interesting! | 2017-06-02T14:55:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50132 |
| I certainly do, and thank you! | 2017-06-02T14:55:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/31/reason/#comment-50131 |
| Pretty much | 2017-06-02T14:55:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/31/reason/#comment-50130 |
| I hope so! | 2017-05-26T20:18:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/26/count-our-blessings/#comment-50032 |
| Thanks! | 2017-05-26T20:18:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/26/count-our-blessings/#comment-50031 |
| Something happen? | 2017-05-26T20:18:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/26/count-our-blessings/#comment-50030 |
| Thank you! | 2017-05-26T20:18:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50029 |
| It does seem like that's what this is all about. He gets to be the eternal martyr to millions. | 2017-05-26T20:18:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50028 |
| Thanks! | 2017-05-26T20:17:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50027 |
| Yes, this will get worse. | 2017-05-26T20:17:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-50026 |
| It's hard to say anything from far away, but no one can say that this is healthy behavior. | 2017-05-26T20:17:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-50025 |
| Great stuff there, thank you! |
2017-05-26T20:16:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/01/a-north-american-story/#comment-50024 |
| Is that supposed to actually mean something? | 2017-05-24T01:36:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/24/thats-our-hitler/#comment-49994 |
| Probably. if we do go in, it should be careful and measured - and with as much international backing as possible. | 2017-05-19T14:58:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/19/stumbling-into-war/#comment-49959 |
| Very much so. And I tell you, ISIS is not worth it. | 2017-05-19T13:55:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/19/stumbling-into-war/#comment-49957 |
| Major wars do start like this. I prefer WWI parallels but yes, that is what the problem is. | 2017-05-19T13:55:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/19/stumbling-into-war/#comment-49956 |
| That is indeed what I am worried about. |
2017-05-19T13:54:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/19/stumbling-into-war/#comment-49955 |
| Yes. And that might well be a good thing. Polarization is not suiting us as well. Our system requires consensus. | 2017-05-18T13:18:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49940 |
| It's all hard for us to imagine, but it appears real enough. | 2017-05-18T13:17:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49939 |
| I like it! A party based on respect! It's all about sitting down and talking things through. | 2017-05-17T15:08:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49932 |
| Thanks! | 2017-05-17T15:07:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49931 |
| Funny, I went right from this post to thinking about this as well. So we only have 3.5 dimensions in our perception of the universe - who's to say there aren't more? | 2017-05-17T15:07:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/17/post-political/#comment-49930 |
| I may go a bit far, but I do think that in place of what anyone might call "political correctness" we should be insisting on "respect" and/or "decency". That is inherently formal, yes. | 2017-05-15T17:52:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/15/formali/#comment-49907 |
| At the heart of it, to me, is showing proper respect. The assumption that a stranger is your friend is really strange. It can be very insulting. | 2017-05-15T17:52:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/15/formali/#comment-49906 |
| I think we are moving that way. God save the Republic. | 2017-05-12T17:26:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/malaise/#comment-49860 |
| Allright, let's confront it this time. We are getting a do-over whether we like it or not. | 2017-05-12T17:25:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/malaise/#comment-49859 |
| Thank you. | 2017-05-12T17:25:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-49858 |
| We must speak with clarity and urgency. Nothing else matters. He is insane. This will get very dark but we can hold the candles up bravely. |
2017-05-12T17:25:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-49857 |
| You are right, there are two immediate problems. I think the first will resolve itself as the insanity becomes more clear - which is why I think we have to speak in clear, concise, language. He is insane. The second problem I am afraid we will have to deal with when we have to deal with it. |
2017-05-12T17:24:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-49856 |
| From the wikipedia article on insanity. I think we have met the legal definition. He cannot distinguish right from wrong because his understanding of reality is at best very limited: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insanity ----------------------------------------------- In United States criminal law, insanity may serve as an affirmative defense to criminal acts and thus does not need to negate an element of the prosecution's case such as general or specific intent.[11] Each U.S. state differs somewhat in its definition of insanity but most follow the guidelines of the Model Penal Code. All jurisdictions require a sanity evaluation to address the question first of whether or not the defendant has a mental illness. Most courts accept a major mental illness such as psychosis but will not accept the diagnosis of a personality disorder for the purposes of an insanity defense. The second question is whether the mental illness interfered with the defendant's ability to distinguish right from wrong. That is, did the defendant know that the alleged behavior was against the law at the time the offense was committed. Additionally, some jurisdictions add the question of whether or not the defendant was in control of their behavior at the time of the offense. For example, if the defendant was compelled by some aspect of their mental illness to commit the illegal act, the defendant could be evaluated as not in control of their behavior at the time of the offense. |
2017-05-12T17:22:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/trump-alternative-universe/#comment-49855 |
| I have to reluctantly agree with some of that. The instinct to put it all behind us was a good one. The problem was primarily a character flaw with Nixon, which is to say not a systemic national issue. Ford and Carter both did their best to put the "Imperial Presidency" behind us. That didn't take hold, sadly, and the whole thing came back with Reagan. That seems to be a major, critical problem. But there was much more to all of it than the character and the trappings. We did need a solid round of therapy, and a "truth and reconciliation" process would have done that. What about that Southern Strategy? Who are we as a people? How did this happen? None of those questions were answered. I do not fault Ford for his instincts. But the whole system was far too eager to pretend it never happened. We, as a people, were and still are unwilling to confront the demons which made Nixon possible. Now they made Trump. Something has to happen, I agree. |
2017-05-12T13:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/12/malaise/#comment-49848 |
| Not so far. | 2017-05-10T13:54:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/10/ensemble-la-monde/#comment-49820 |
| Probably. The word you are looking for is "defenestrated". :-) I've always wanted to use that word. |
2017-05-10T13:54:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/10/ensemble-la-monde/#comment-49819 |
| I think intelligence develops with cats, just as it does with humans. Tony always seemed smart, but with the years he has become genuinely wise at times. | 2017-05-09T16:15:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/08/cat-language/#comment-49812 |
| Thanks! | 2017-05-09T16:15:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/08/cat-language/#comment-49811 |
| Exactly. | 2017-05-05T13:36:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49773 |
| Obamacare was indeed half-assed at best. There is no doubt in my mind that Republicans could come up with a better system in one way or the other. But they aren't even trying. That's what bugs me. I'll go out on a limb here and say that we will NOT have a fix for this until everyone is engaged, Democrat and Republican alike. This doesn't get us anywhere. |
2017-05-05T13:36:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49772 |
| Though I am a Democrat, I had a lot of criticism of Obamacare. It was a compromise from the start and it never really got to the heart of the problem. It wasn't innovative at all. Having said that, this is worse. There is nothing about reality in this bill, it's just an attempt to push garbage through. |
2017-05-05T13:34:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49771 |
| We didn't even get the CBO estimates before they passed it on - that is simply unheard of with a major piece of legislation. That is worth dwelling on for a moment. It is about nothing more than not being embarrassed by their own inability . As a result, they embarrassed themselves further. |
2017-05-05T13:32:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49770 |
| The only other way to look at it is that they are deliberately trying to screw people. I'm going to say that they don't think about people long enough to consider this. | 2017-05-05T13:30:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49769 |
| You always have it, thanks! |
2017-05-05T13:30:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/05/not-even-trying/#comment-49768 |
| Thanks. The Swiss Franc has been over-valued for a solid 20 years now, predating the launch of the Euro. Currencies can become "stuck" and often do. | 2017-05-03T13:48:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/03/strong-dollar/#comment-49746 |
| I have long believed this, too. The Bush administration clearly wanted to defend the status of the Dollar, but I honestly think that a "soft landing" has to be prepared for us to get out of that. It has a cost. | 2017-05-03T13:47:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/03/strong-dollar/#comment-49745 |
| Thank you! | 2017-05-01T20:55:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/01/a-north-american-story/#comment-49736 |
| Thank you! | 2017-05-01T20:55:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/05/01/a-north-american-story/#comment-49735 |
| I don't want to dwell on that, but yes. Even at its worst, what we have going is better than a lot of places. We have room to start making improvement. | 2017-04-28T19:28:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/28/american-privilege/#comment-49718 |
| Bingo! It's one way or the other! | 2017-04-28T19:28:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/28/american-privilege/#comment-49717 |
| I do think that the US in general has turned to very simplistic answers - which do not compel us to step outside of our houses and cars and actually talk to each other. We see this everywhere. | 2017-04-24T13:33:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49697 |
| I apologize for offending you and making an assumption that you were like many of the atheists I know. My own inability aside, I hope you can see that I actually agree with you to a large extent and am equally horrified by what religion has been used for. I've written on that topic many times before, in fact. I do think you have an important message to get out into the world, but speaking/writing is one thing and listening/reading another. I can see that I did a bad job of crafting a message that can cut through the noise myself, but that is indeed my goal. I believe that there has to be a place for faith in a world based largely on reason - but our attitudes towards faith are definitely going to have to change considerably before that can come to pass. Still, I think it's not only desirable it's something that the vast majority of the "faithful" would like to see as well. |
2017-04-21T19:19:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49690 |
| "Then you must see the KKK as good Christians who simply mass murdered the black slaves. " Do you honestly believe this is my position? if so, how do you support this conclusion based on my words? If not, why did you say it? I see nothing productive in your words, which makes me wonder why you write them. I honestly do not understand why someone would say what you do because it certainly does not advance your position by winning over people to your side nor does it make friends across different opinions. So why do you write the things which you do? |
2017-04-21T18:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49688 |
| In this world I do think anything is possible. | 2017-04-21T17:30:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/21/crazy-gets-real/#comment-49684 |
| I know, it's crazy. But it's what should happen - assuming a more peaceful method can't be found. | 2017-04-21T17:29:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/21/crazy-gets-real/#comment-49683 |
| Yes, the last second launch would be the one downside. But they don't seem ready or able to do that. They may if we wait much longer. To me, cooperation between the US and China is essential for a lot of things. This is a good place to start. If it can be done more peacefully than by all means let's do it. But we shouldn't let this fester when we both know it is horrible and we both want it to change. |
2017-04-21T13:22:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/21/crazy-gets-real/#comment-49680 |
| Sorry, but I think this is just a refelction of this problem. I can see why you feel this way, given what people use religion for. But only a small minority actually see it this way and they have polluted things terribly. If all you knew of faith was a way that people felt connected and lived in peace you would probably still reject it, but not really care that much. And the vast majority of Christians in this nation do see their faith in those terms. Somehow, the violent minority dominates. That is terrible. |
2017-04-21T13:20:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49679 |
| Go ahead and rant, I can tell you still care. :-) Seriously, you mentioned "Dogma" and I concur that in a way that is a beautiful movie and a statement of faith. But it had to be expressed so cynically - that's the problem. | 2017-04-19T16:18:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49668 |
| It's amazing how much we demand voices shout before they can be heard. To me, that is the entire problem. | 2017-04-19T16:17:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49667 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-19T16:16:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/19/a-crisis-of-faith/#comment-49666 |
| You are anticipating what I was thinking about next, which is an examination of Christian thought as the majority of Christians from mainstream faiths understand it. Yes, Grace - universal love - is not just for Lutherans anymore. While I think it's obvious that politics is about interaction between people, current politics isn't exactly there yet. It's personal and defensive. It's not in a place where love can really be the guiding force. I wanted to start with a personal vision that has clarity and sense. I'm trying to define a space where interaction, vis a vis politics, has space for genuine grace. But yes, that's what has to come next. It should be obvious, I hope. A very conservative friend of mine recently acknowledged the concept of "privilege" and said that the goal is not to eliminate it but to extend it to everyone. That was without even directly accepting my definition of privilege, which is the benefit of the doubt. This all works for me. Let's start with the assumption that everyone else is at least decent and worthy of some sense of love, some reach of grace. It may take work sometimes, but it's happy work that is good for the soul and often pays off bigtime. And yes, let's encourage each other to be the best we can be and full of that grace which is all around us. It's hard to always be the best we can be, but with a little support it's easier. Not a crazy vision at all! |
2017-04-17T15:50:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/17/practical-in-a-way/#comment-49660 |
| I would think that everyone could reject a politics based on unhappiness right away. I want to start there. | 2017-04-17T15:43:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/17/practical-in-a-way/#comment-49659 |
| Thanks. Most people see themselve sin the middle and practical, yes. This piece will certainly bother a lot of my more progressive friends in that it is very disconnected and middle class. It's written to people who really just want to get along and don't have a strong interest in politics, as we know it. I'm focusing on connecting with the disconnected right now. That's what this is all about. I don't see any reason to radicalize them to get them involved in a movement. Most of them have good instincts, but just don't know what to do about it. The flurry of news confuses people and causes them to disengage. I'm trying to provide an antidote to that. And starting with, "Let's all just be happy" seems like a good place to begin. |
2017-04-17T15:43:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/17/practical-in-a-way/#comment-49658 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-14T19:47:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/14/divide-not-divide/#comment-49650 |
| I think you are right, and there are indeed Republicans who are objectively good people no matter how you look at it. We just disagree on details, is all. The good people, the sane people, the thinking people need to unite. We have to say, "Enough!" and start working things out to the best of our ability. That will take leadership, and that is indeed the hard part. But it has to happen - or we will decline into a third-rate nation very quickly. |
2017-04-14T19:47:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/14/divide-not-divide/#comment-49649 |
| If you believe in Star Trek: The Next Generation there is a way out. :-) The key is moving from a time of scarcity to a time of abundance. We already live in a time when there is enough food to feed the projected 10B people this planet will max out at. There is enough energy out there if we only learn how to capture it. Marx's utopia is indeed at hand, probably in my lifetime. Will it be utopia? Oh, Hell no! I grew up in Miami and I've seen what humans can do with paradise. But things like "money" are really a way of regulating scarce resources - and when scarcity disappears the dire need for money goes with it. Capital costs have been falling steady for 20 years for a good reason. I do think this has a chance of sorting itself out, and that ST:TNG is largely correct in many ways. We'll find a way to muck it up, sure, but I do think that abundance, not scarcity, is coming at us quickly. That will indeed change everything. Great comment, thank you! |
2017-04-14T19:46:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/12/the-wealth-of-nations/#comment-49648 |
| Yes, all around. It's been noted many times that the economy does better in Democratic administrations. Since correlation does not imply causality (see the story of the Star Spangled Banner as our national anthem) we have to be skeptical. I believe that in good times people are more receptive, expansive, and generous - and elect Democrats. My goal is always "A strong half-step back" which I describe as "Far enough back to have some perspective, but close enough to keep my hands dirty." I think Mike Rowe is precisely correct in that hard work is always the goal when up close, as opposed to whining, but it is the step back which often eludes us all. Especially in hard times. Leadership is always the key. People have to be coaxed back and given a strong vision. The entire developed world lacks clear vision right now, and it shows. Leadership is scared and unsure, but largely unwilling to admit it - because it's their job to lead into the future, yes? |
2017-04-14T19:41:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/14/divide-not-divide/#comment-49647 |
| All of that noise is only a distraction from what really matters. Until we get an actual vision and strategy in place the rest is just noise - and useful only to distract us from developing the appropriate strategy. | 2017-04-12T17:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/12/the-wealth-of-nations/#comment-49623 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-12T17:04:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/12/the-wealth-of-nations/#comment-49622 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-10T17:55:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/10/ten-years-on/#comment-49606 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-10T17:55:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/10/ten-years-on/#comment-49605 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-10T17:55:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/10/ten-years-on/#comment-49604 |
| Thank you! | 2017-04-10T17:54:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/10/ten-years-on/#comment-49603 |
| Thanks! | 2017-04-10T17:54:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/07/a-new-low/#comment-49602 |
| There is definitely growth and expansion. Not just economically, but social roles are expanding all the time as are civil rights. That's what some people want to push back against as the world becomes more integrated. It's not all cyclical, so maybe I should change how I say this. Consider a simple addition between a straight line and a sine wave, which is to say y=x+sin(x): https://erikhare.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/xsinx.gif I hope this turns out. it gives you great bursts of gain followed by slight retreats. I think this is how the economy and social progress both work. I've been loathe to push this into that kind of equation, but it seems more accurate than I thought now that I've goofed with it. Does that work for you? |
2017-04-07T15:13:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/07/a-new-low/#comment-49586 |
| I hope it gives some context to our current problems. And yes, history is a long march of really stupid and crazy things happening. We all live with the consequences. | 2017-04-05T17:37:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/05/the-american-century/#comment-49573 |
| Over on facebook some of my friends are contemplating how the world would be different. Left and right they all agree - it was a mistake. But we can't undo it. | 2017-04-05T17:36:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/05/the-american-century/#comment-49572 |
| Thanks! | 2017-04-05T17:35:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/05/the-american-century/#comment-49571 |
| Thanks. It's one Hell of a way to end our imperialistic ambitions, isn't it? | 2017-04-05T17:35:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/05/the-american-century/#comment-49570 |
| Seven years ago, right at the bottom. Well, the economic bottom - the socio-political bottom we are still fathoming. | 2017-04-03T18:41:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/03/the-illusions-which-ennoble-us/#comment-49557 |
| Isn't it amazing? This was more or less at the low point of the economy, and this is what we were talking about. Me? I had to resort to Pushkin. :-) | 2017-04-03T14:20:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/04/03/the-illusions-which-ennoble-us/#comment-49555 |
| “Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.” – Kenneth Boulding |
2017-03-31T17:35:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49543 |
| There is a genuinely positive spin on this, which is to look at how a world based on abundance, not shortage, would operate. Star Trek operated in that world, so it's not too terribly hard to imagine. | 2017-03-31T17:33:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49541 |
| It is not. And that is sad - seven years on. | 2017-03-31T17:32:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49540 |
| Absolutely. Equity is the real issue. Of course, that is a good source of growth, at least in the short term. But it won't be satisfied until we put growth aside. | 2017-03-31T17:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49539 |
| We will change. We have to. And, in fact, I think we are - which is why we have such real pain in certain areas of the economy. | 2017-03-31T17:30:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49538 |
| Yes, it's all rather obvious. But in 2010 our policies were generally based on continuous growth. They still are, but less so. | 2017-03-31T17:29:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/31/it-starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-49537 |
| I used to have less to say! ;-) | 2017-03-29T13:45:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/29/politics-and-interest/#comment-49510 |
| Thank you. And it all is very reactionary. The true middle ground, if you ask me, is that a new world logically requires new institutions and a world coming closer together requires a lot of new, often more intrusive, relationships. It's up to all of us to figure out what we want. I followed up with a 10 year old piece decrying the apparent denial that we do indeed need to work things out together. That is a common response all around. | 2017-03-29T13:45:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/27/chaos-versus-order/#comment-49509 |
| Thank you! Yes, you do indeed have the right kind of questions - they make far more sense than anything dealing with "immigration" as a problem, for example. Putin? I don't think he is really in charge. I think he is the enforcer, not the Don. If it ever became necessary to take him out, they would. |
2017-03-27T19:36:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/27/chaos-versus-order/#comment-49486 |
| No, and No. :-) Seriously, part of the problem is that the disenfranchised have no idea how much they benefit from "The System" (really many systems) and believe that they can go it alone. | 2017-03-27T14:13:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/27/chaos-versus-order/#comment-49484 |
| That is what I am getting at. What is the common feature of all these groups? Why are they not more suspicious of Putin? The one thing everyone around the world has in common is an apparent belief that chaos is better than the current corrupt/thieving/despotic order. | 2017-03-27T14:12:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/27/chaos-versus-order/#comment-49483 |
| I agree completely. How we get there is another issue, however. | 2017-03-27T01:00:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/24/syria-degenerates/#comment-49480 |
| Each composer has their moods and their philosophies. Noe is as empowering as Bach's, if you ask me. I do consider it a faith. | 2017-03-20T14:42:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/20/js-bach-spiritual-guide/#comment-49451 |
| Thanks. It does take us pretty much to today, nine years later. | 2017-03-17T14:12:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/17/yes-not-again-2/#comment-49443 |
| Thank you. I always say that America is bigger than any of us can understand. :-) | 2017-03-15T13:43:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/15/st-patricks-day-5/#comment-49432 |
| It will be sad, but predictable. | 2017-03-10T17:18:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/10/good-seasonal-adjustment/#comment-49403 |
| The seasonal adjustment for ADP is not known, but it is probably the same as the BLS. Here is a graph of their adjustment. It's 1,600 thousand in February, meaning a blip of 100 thousand is 1/16th of the seasonal affect. Yes, I think that's all there is. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=cYJE |
2017-03-10T17:18:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/10/good-seasonal-adjustment/#comment-49402 |
| I don't think so. I think that raising will improve the sustainability - once we get through to the other side. | 2017-03-06T18:37:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/06/a-glance-at-the-dashboard/#comment-49381 |
| The main reason rates have to rise is to get us out of that spiral. It will be good in the long run, for sure. | 2017-03-06T18:36:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/06/a-glance-at-the-dashboard/#comment-49380 |
| Caffeinated. Mountain Dew. | 2017-03-03T20:34:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/03/ready-for-the-main-event/#comment-49354 |
| I agree, snacks would make this all better. | 2017-03-03T20:33:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/03/ready-for-the-main-event/#comment-49353 |
| Stocks have been on a tear for nearly a year. With interest rates rising we can expect a correction, yes. | 2017-03-02T02:42:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49338 |
| Yes, it almost certainly was. | 2017-03-02T02:41:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49337 |
| Not mine either. | 2017-03-02T02:41:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49336 |
| I think the disagreements between Congress and him will become much larger with time. | 2017-03-01T18:41:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49330 |
| Which, in this case, is fine by me. | 2017-03-01T18:41:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/03/01/do-we-have-an-actual-president/#comment-49329 |
| Amen. And we are destroying one Hell of a lot. | 2017-03-01T18:40:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49328 |
| Indeed. I don't think our nonsense is actually welcome anywhere. | 2017-02-28T17:52:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49320 |
| Yes, that is a ridiculous proposal all around, without a doubt. | 2017-02-28T17:52:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49319 |
| That is my concern all around. ISIS is a symptom of a much larger problem - as is fundamentalism generally. | 2017-02-28T17:51:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49318 |
| Absolutely. The reason I want to be precise about this is that I fear that our "allies" in the region are capable of creating an awful lot of mayhem on their own and that we have trained them to do so. Even if we started being more constructive and/or largely withdrew from the region I think our legacy is one of constant turmoil. | 2017-02-28T17:50:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49317 |
| The only solution is peace, yes. How much was the US involved? I don't mean to argue too much here, but there is a chance we weren't that involved - because we didn't have to be. Saudi Arabia and the gulf states did all the arming here, and I'm not sure we were involved in any way other than to let it happen. They do have the resources to do that. But if we were involved in the early arming we are indeed responsible and that was indeed the original sin that started all of this, yes. | 2017-02-27T19:23:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49308 |
| Thank you, and yes, it's just not our thing outside of being Global Policeman. | 2017-02-27T19:22:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/27/syria-the-next-phase/#comment-49307 |
| Indeed. Thanks! | 2017-02-23T23:29:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/22/cyprus/#comment-49279 |
| It would be nice. As someone said, we'd be tweeting about movies and sports now. | 2017-02-23T23:28:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/22/cyprus/#comment-49278 |
| Thanks. I think it is indeed that simple. | 2017-02-21T20:04:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/20/why-we-write/#comment-49264 |
| Indeed. And hopefully they inspire the telling of another story and the process continues! | 2017-02-20T18:05:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/20/why-we-write/#comment-49258 |
| Exactly - he isn't good enough to be pathological. There is something seriously wrong here and I don't know exactly what. I don't see that it matters. We can't keep treating this like a normal situation - it is extraordinary in every way it can be. | 2017-02-20T18:04:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/17/an-immediate-crisis/#comment-49257 |
| Thank you! It has been fun. Quite a lot of words. :-) | 2017-02-20T18:03:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/20/why-we-write/#comment-49256 |
| Sometimes it really helps to get yourself organized. It's difficult to talk about big ideas entirely off the cuff - you need to have it down well. | 2017-02-20T18:03:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/20/why-we-write/#comment-49255 |
| There is a lot of diversion here. I really don't care about anyone not in power, so that is rather irrelevant. We have an immediate crisis which is what I'd like to deal with, please. | 2017-02-17T19:34:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/17/an-immediate-crisis/#comment-49237 |
| Thanks! | 2017-02-17T19:33:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/17/an-immediate-crisis/#comment-49236 |
| I have no idea at this time, but I think things will reconcile. They have to. | 2017-02-17T19:33:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/17/an-immediate-crisis/#comment-49235 |
| I am certain of it. The problem is how they get messed up by the circus. | 2017-02-15T15:55:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/15/firm-hand/#comment-49222 |
| We do, indeed. | 2017-02-15T15:54:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/15/firm-hand/#comment-49221 |
| Absolutely. We have to be in it for the long haul! | 2017-02-15T15:51:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/15/firm-hand/#comment-49218 |
| It does eventually. But while it is strengthening all of the goods we purchase become cheaper in dollar terms | 2017-02-15T04:59:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/15/firm-hand/#comment-49215 |
| Indeed, there is always more room. I think we have to make that point more and more - alongside the demonstration that there is a net benefit to everyone for immigration. | 2017-02-10T19:24:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/10/renew-america/#comment-49178 |
| This generally happens, but take a look at a picture of any city in the 1920s. You will see signs posted in German, Polish ... any number of languages. Most are in English, yes, but there are always some which are not. And that's fine. | 2017-02-10T19:23:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/10/renew-america/#comment-49177 |
| Oh, yes. I've been on this for a while. It just gets a little more true every year. :-) | 2017-02-09T21:12:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/08/new-line-of-thought/#comment-49164 |
| They have their own reasons, which we do need to understand to get past where we are now and move to a more understanding - and productive - place. | 2017-02-09T21:12:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/08/new-line-of-thought/#comment-49163 |
| More or less. It's a long standing position of Barataria that a depression started around 2000, which I call the "Managed Depression". Roughly the fifth such event in US history. | 2017-02-08T20:09:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/08/new-line-of-thought/#comment-49129 |
| :-) | 2017-02-08T20:08:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/06/national-brand/#comment-49128 |
| No, I do not have any way to do that. A separate survey is called for though - it would be nice. We could put a value on it. | 2017-02-08T20:08:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/06/national-brand/#comment-49127 |
| Thank you! Great post! | 2017-02-03T18:24:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-49067 |
| It is, indeed. I still say that in a representative democracy you get the government you deserve. But the response has been good and we have to take heart in that. | 2017-02-03T18:24:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/03/staying-positive/#comment-49066 |
| It is critical. Keep the faith! | 2017-02-03T18:23:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/03/staying-positive/#comment-49065 |
| Yes, but look around at how people are standing up with genuine kindness and humility. We are better, and we're showing it. | 2017-02-01T19:57:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49050 |
| Absolutely! | 2017-02-01T19:56:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49049 |
| Excellent! | 2017-02-01T19:56:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49048 |
| If he lifts the sanctions with an Executive Order, we'll know. I think he knew what was going on the whole time. | 2017-02-01T14:31:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49043 |
| Yes, they are rolling. It's not good at all. | 2017-02-01T14:30:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49042 |
| Yes, but let's be the ones to finish it. :-) Marching is good to the extent it gets us organized, but the real work is in the phone calls to Congress. |
2017-02-01T14:30:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49041 |
| Thank you. We all need to. | 2017-02-01T14:29:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/02/01/conspiracy-time/#comment-49040 |
| Canada is now much bigger than the US - and I am not talking land area. Bless you all. | 2017-01-30T19:12:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49018 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-30T19:11:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49017 |
| Money is the one way to buy your way out of their control. It's a big protection racket, and our nation is a big mafia state - just like Russia. | 2017-01-30T19:11:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49016 |
| Exactly - the entire purpose is to instill fear so that it can feed on itself. We must resist fear more than anything else. | 2017-01-30T19:10:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49015 |
| Very much so. And I am sure we will see more of this. | 2017-01-30T19:10:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/30/bigger-america/#comment-49014 |
| And so did our ancient alliance, thankfully. | 2017-01-30T19:10:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-49013 |
| Indeed, we never know what we'll wake up to. | 2017-01-30T19:09:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-49012 |
| That is my point - the most subversive thing ever on TV, if you ask me. | 2017-01-30T19:09:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/27/mary-tyler-moore/#comment-49011 |
| What a lovely tribute! | 2017-01-30T19:08:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/27/mary-tyler-moore/#comment-49010 |
| Indeed. A truly great person. | 2017-01-30T19:08:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/27/mary-tyler-moore/#comment-49009 |
| Thank you very much! | 2017-01-26T22:07:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48981 |
| There are probably more jobs in Auto Parts than there are in the actual assembly. And yes, I have no problem with Mexico having its share of jobs. The stability of Mexico is always going to be in our best interest. I don't care what you put at the border there will always be a net flow of people or Goods or something else across it regardless of what stupid laws you pass | 2017-01-26T01:32:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48967 |
| I am in favor of tariff protection against nations which are not at the same level we are, and I do think that every nation has to have its own sources of food, water, and energy (the necessities). Beyond that, however, I do favor free trade all around and believe that all developed nations must form a community and get along. | 2017-01-25T16:19:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48964 |
| Many times that is true. However, information is always the key to a well functioning marketplace, and there is without question a role for government in telling people what is going on. | 2017-01-25T16:16:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48963 |
| I think that is true as well. I'm not sure it ever really worked in the first place, however. | 2017-01-25T16:15:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48962 |
| Absolutely. And it is indeed not clear at all what policy can do about this. My hunch is that we have to focus on the social need for work, which is to say something like "make work" in the end. Subsidizing jobs is a bit much, but reducing overhead and making a point of taxing profit, not labor, would be a start. Still, it's all what Vonnegut wrote about in Player Piano some 60 years ago. https://erikhare.com/2014/08/27/player-piano/ |
2017-01-25T14:56:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48957 |
| A good point. Inflation does not exist generally, which has led to a lot of interesting behavior. Whatever we do here will be as automated as it can be - even the coke dispenser at Burger King is automated and self-service now, saving a worker here and there. | 2017-01-25T14:49:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48956 |
| I think we can have more manufacturing, yes, but we can't do it chasing these things. It's about the strength of the US Dollar and the cost of workers - which I would say is driven at least as much by overhead as wages. | 2017-01-25T14:48:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48955 |
| I think they are more interested in Guam. VERY interested. | 2017-01-25T14:47:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/25/make-america-great-again/#comment-48954 |
| You are correct that a big gathering is a great organizing tool. It is a start, and this clearly energized people. It left them with the feeling that they are not alone, and there is both strength and comfort in numbers. Again, this is a time for tactics. It's not a truly progressive situation by any stretch, but it's what has to happen. |
2017-01-25T14:46:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48953 |
| I think it has to be regular, too. But let's not forget what Saul Alinsky* said, "A tactic which drags on becomes a drag." * Use of the name Saul Alinsky can legitimately be considered trolling on my part. Sue me. |
2017-01-23T18:15:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48935 |
| If that is all it accomplishes, we have accomplished a lot. We can't move forward without Hope first. I still say that we have to have clear goals and a path to reach them, but there is no doubt that energizing people is the first thing to do. |
2017-01-23T18:14:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48934 |
| I certainly hope so. But it is still not a strategy with a defined goal. If it gets us there, it is good. | 2017-01-23T18:04:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48930 |
| We are indeed the problem. A week ago, on MLK Day, I found this. I could never say it as well as he did in his Sermon to the Detroit Baptist Church on 28 Feb, 1954 "The trouble isn’t so much that we don’t know enough, but it’s as if we aren’t good enough. The trouble isn’t so much that our scientific genius lags behind, but our moral genius lags behind. The great problem facing modern man is that, that the means by which we live, have outdistanced the spiritual ends for which we live. So we find ourselves caught in a messed-up world. The problem is with man himself and man’s soul. We haven’t learned how to be just and honest and kind and true and loving. And that is the basis of our problem. The real problem is that through our scientific genius we’ve made of the world a neighborhood, but through our moral and spiritual genius we’ve failed to make of it a brotherhood. And the great danger facing us today is not so much the atomic bomb that was created by physical science. Not so much that atomic bomb that you can put in an aeroplane and drop on the heads of hundreds and thousands of people-as dangerous as that is. But the real danger confronting civilization today is that atomic bomb which lies in the hearts and souls of men, capable of exploding into the vilest of hate and into the most damaging selfishness. That’s the atomic bomb that we’ve got to fear today. Problem is with the men. Within the heart and the souls of men. That is the real basis of our problem." |
2017-01-23T18:04:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/23/a-time-for-tactics/#comment-48929 |
| I understand. It's hard to just keep going sometimes | 2017-01-20T22:23:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/20/seeking-solace/#comment-48914 |
| Mostly nonsense. Sigh. | 2017-01-20T20:01:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/20/seeking-solace/#comment-48912 |
| Seek the wisdom ... like Bruce | 2017-01-20T19:59:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/20/seeking-solace/#comment-48911 |
| Amen | 2017-01-20T19:58:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/20/seeking-solace/#comment-48910 |
| Pretty much, yes. | 2017-01-18T18:14:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48892 |
| To some extent, I did. This is worse than I would have ever dreamed. | 2017-01-18T18:14:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48891 |
| We can always hope! | 2017-01-18T18:14:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48890 |
| "There's nothing wrong with America that can't be fixed by what is right with America." - Bill Clinton | 2017-01-18T18:14:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48889 |
| No, a complete incompetent and useful idiot to many crooks. | 2017-01-18T04:22:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48881 |
| I am expecting it dead-on cross between Andrew Jackson and Warren G Harding. | 2017-01-18T03:27:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/18/its-all-history/#comment-48879 |
| OK. That would be great if it comes into being. Sounds like primarily a computer control issue, meaning we have everything in place to implement it. | 2017-01-17T22:28:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/16/50mpg-banned-in-the-us/#comment-48877 |
| So far, indeed. | 2017-01-17T22:27:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/11/bread-and-circuses/#comment-48876 |
| I am not a fan of CNG because of the amount of energy necessary to compress and ship it. Propane, liquifying under pressure, interest me more. BUt in general the move to a natural gas economy is interesting give the number or biofuel and other renewable sources for it which can come online in their own time. I wrote about this some time ago. So I'm willing to keep an eye on it, for sure. | 2017-01-17T22:27:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/16/50mpg-banned-in-the-us/#comment-48875 |
| Yes, people are definitely part of the machine there. | 2017-01-17T22:24:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48874 |
| A very good question! Sort of a human machine hybrid. You never really know, eh? | 2017-01-16T19:45:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48865 |
| I do believe that these cars are at least a useful interim technology. The ability to use biodiesel is a big benefit to me. BUT - I completely agree that the regulation we have now is a bit of a mystery and I do want to know a lot more myself. I can tell you that there is really no fix for the NOx emissions - you either live with it or you ban it. | 2017-01-16T19:44:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/16/50mpg-banned-in-the-us/#comment-48864 |
| I can buy that I don't have the best info. And I can see why the NOx, which can't be fixed, might be a reason to ban diesels. In fact, I really don't know why either the EU or US have the standards they do. What I can tell you is that in my nearly constant search for alternative technologies that might be interesting, as I don't think Lithium batteries are really the future, I always run into the standard for efficiency as being these diesels. My search includes the previously mentioned turbine electric hybrid and even magneto hydrodynamic plasma generators - both of which are interesting and both of which create a lot of NOx as they run very hot. And both are not yet ready to challenge these high mileage diesels. So I'm always ready to listen to arguments on how we balance the priorities for cleaner cars. This is one area that I really don't get, to be honest. What's really wrong with the US? Gasoline is too cheap and roads are heavily subsidized. That's about it to me. But if we fix that consumers will want higher mileage cars right away, as they did when gasoline was over $4 a gallon two years ago. And they will demand these cars. Then what? |
2017-01-16T19:43:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/16/50mpg-banned-in-the-us/#comment-48863 |
| Nope. Just smoke and mirrors. :-) |
2017-01-13T21:05:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48848 |
| Indeed. But I think they are more rare than we might think. Most people don't seem to realize how rude they are. | 2017-01-13T16:18:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48845 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-13T16:17:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48844 |
| Thank you! I appreciate your contributions to the world of sanity as well. | 2017-01-13T16:15:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/13/ex-machina-2/#comment-48841 |
| Indeed, that seems to be happening. But unlike Rome, we are still a Republic. | 2017-01-12T14:22:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/11/bread-and-circuses/#comment-48834 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-12T14:22:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/11/bread-and-circuses/#comment-48833 |
| On that last point I think we can all agree. My concern is that worried about the screw up a great opportunity | 2017-01-09T23:37:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48811 |
| I am not against wholesale reform of corporate taxes. Generally, the lost revenue is made up with a VAT, which is very regressive - and I would be OK with even that if we had some mechanisms for making it less regressive. I do feel that a stock transaction tax would be even better to make up lost revenue. BUT - the main point remains that this is a delicate thing that should not be rushed through given how many ways corporate tax is screwed up and the resulting implications of these many ways being "fixed". |
2017-01-09T15:33:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48808 |
| Again, this isn't about Russia, scary as they are. And I'm not even sure it's for his buddies. This is a core Republican agenda item that is going to be pushed through now that they can. Thinking it through a bit, the moment the Fed starts really raising rates is the moment their independence is threatened. That will be another distraction - one that all thinking people need to be ready for. Sigh. |
2017-01-09T15:27:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48807 |
| OK, I'll stop being pissy. Sorry about that. My point is that while everyone frets about Russia this and that there is something more important at stake - an ideology which will be crammed through despite having obvious pitfalls in this current environment. And to put that on top of saying exactly the wrong things and giving the wrong impressions all over, ie that a trade war is about to break out, is just irresponsible. It's almost exactly the wrong thing to do in this delicate situation. That's what bothers me. And this is all getting lost in the noise about Russia etc. Trump is getting a relatively free hand in economic areas because he has a handy distraction. |
2017-01-09T15:21:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48804 |
| Is that honestly all you got from this? Can you actually read English? Please go away if you are that wedded to the main attraction of the circus. |
2017-01-09T01:24:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48801 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-09T01:14:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48798 |
| None of this has anything to do with what I said here. Not one bit. | 2017-01-09T01:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/09/screwing-it-all-up/#comment-48797 |
| No, it isn't really a game, but that's what they will play. And it will kill people,. especially destroying the ACA. None of this is good, not at all. But it's what we are facing. |
2017-01-06T18:58:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/06/its-all-a-game/#comment-48783 |
| Yeah. This isn't going to be fun. | 2017-01-06T18:56:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/06/its-all-a-game/#comment-48781 |
| Not fun, eh? | 2017-01-06T18:56:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/06/its-all-a-game/#comment-48780 |
| Exactly! | 2017-01-04T18:45:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/04/economy-of-people/#comment-48760 |
| Change your mind instead? :-) The economy is nothing more than a series of values made into a system. Changing the values changes the system more than anything else. | 2017-01-04T18:45:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/04/economy-of-people/#comment-48759 |
| "All money is a matter of belief." - Adam Smith. "Money" as a concept is very different from "wealth". It doesn't really matter what we use to measure wealth, it matters how flows. And while the debt can be crippling, keep in mind that $2.8B of it, about 14%, is owned by the Federal Reserve. That is entirely fictional, in a sense. Government does not always serve the people, no, and that is a serious problem. But it's hardly a new problem if you ask me. |
2017-01-04T18:44:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/04/economy-of-people/#comment-48758 |
| Pope Francis is indeed tied to the Catholic view, so he can't go as gnostic as I do. That's fine with me because I don't see that point as being central. There is no doubt that Francis sees Jesus first and foremost as an example. His foot washing is the clearest demonstration of this. So there is no significant conflict here. Nor do I think there is a great conflict with other "People of the book", Jews and Moslems. While they do not have Jesus as a guide (Moslems only see him as an early prophet, so he is accessible at least) the message is substantially the same in many ways. The main difference is enough ritual to define every moment of the day, which I admit I find troubling. But even that I feel can be worked out with honest, open conversation. I'd like to have that. |
2017-01-02T16:39:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48740 |
| I don't want this to be a competition, but I see what you mean. And that is my point, in a sense. I have just enough Salvation Army in me to really believe that "You shall know the just by their deeds." I stand by that - regardless of how someone describes their faith or lack thereof. | 2017-01-02T16:35:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48739 |
| Thank you! | 2017-01-02T16:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48738 |
| You are most welcome, and thank you for reading! | 2017-01-02T16:34:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48737 |
| I will do my best, and I hope you can help with it, too! | 2017-01-02T16:34:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48736 |
| Thank you for taking this to the next level! This piece was written for evangelizing, essentially - to the extent I am comfortable at all with doing that. I didn't want to get too philosophical or quote too many other people. The purpose was to speak from my heart and tell the world how I think. But it needs the underpinnings you provide - the background, the realization that others have looked at this issue in similar ways. Yes, I see all of this as part of a general "higher calling" which is the chakra above - the one I haven't talked about too much. The point is that we should at least have as an ideal a world where everyone is wise and kind and connected. We may not all achieve that, but it is worth trying. Standards are important, especially in cultural frames. Thank you again. This stands on its own. |
2017-01-02T16:33:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2017/01/02/start-the-year-right/#comment-48735 |
| They will try, I fear. | 2016-12-30T18:45:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/30/may-you-live-in-interesting-times-2/#comment-48708 |
| Nothing surprising at all. But keep in mind that a new generation of economists and other experts is essential to bring the new thinking, so it does take a while to really sink in. Not only a new generation but a new gender and country of origin in many cases. This is what genuine "outsiders" look like. |
2016-12-30T18:44:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/30/may-you-live-in-interesting-times-2/#comment-48707 |
| Happy New Year! | 2016-12-30T01:05:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/30/may-you-live-in-interesting-times-2/#comment-48698 |
| This is as pessimistic as I get. You are right in that this is just the culmination of decades of work by those who want to enslave one way or the other. The problem is a simple one. Barataria is about my role as Sancho Panza, trying to keep the world out of trouble until it regains its sanity. The world has believed its own bullshit for far too long and honestly believes the windmills are dragons. I am not doing my job. The world is in more peril than it was when I started. We do need to hang in there. It will be hard. |
2016-12-29T22:46:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48694 |
| Thank you! It is time for a younger person to take the project over. I hope for recent immigrants, actually - people who can absorb the great Americana and be a part of it. That would be so very beautiful. | 2016-12-29T22:43:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48693 |
| There is a lot here to comment on. I want to start with this: "I can believe its more to do with a wilful lack of understanding of cultural differences and, a lack of appreciation for the shared cultural values and interests. " I accept this. The noise of a bizzy world has become deafening as it closes in around us. Far too many people have crawled into a fetal position with their hands over their ears to drown it all out. That's your crap news, fake news, fluffy news, and other plain gossip that simply drowns out anything useful at all. Very few of us are in any position to make sense of what is happening. There's no reason to think that we ever will be able to intellectually, either. Like previous steps in modernity, such as the Industrial Revolution, there has to be a period of normalization where we all gradually accept it. Coping mechanisms come from the guts and the heart, not the head. Politics is indeed about how power is organized. Our systems in the developed free world are based on the premise that most of it has to be distributed. The responsibility that comes with that is overwhelming at times. A retreat into authoritarianism is actually rather rational in a way - just tell us what to do and keep us safe, please. It's far too confusing to do anything else. You raise many, many good points. All in all I think the main effect is simply overwhelming. |
2016-12-29T22:42:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48692 |
| Thank you! | 2016-12-29T22:36:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48691 |
| I gladly indict everyone. There is plenty of blame to go around. | 2016-12-29T22:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48690 |
| Yet we retain the mechanisms to do something about it - as soon as we stop believing the bullshit. As soon as we stop believing our own bullshit. I do not disagree with you. But the operative word in what you said is near the top - "We". That's what is in extra large fancy print at the top of the Constitution itself, after all. Until we start thinking like that we are indeed doomed, IMHO. |
2016-12-29T22:35:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/28/2016-the-rot-at-the-core/#comment-48689 |
| I'm OK. This needs to happen. This is too much house for me and it's too expensive. | 2016-12-27T17:03:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48654 |
| A little of both. It's too big for me to maintain. | 2016-12-27T17:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48653 |
| I am planning to not leave the West End. I really don't have a plan yet, though. | 2016-12-27T17:02:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48652 |
| For $650k you could! :-) |
2016-12-27T17:02:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/26/the-spencer-house/#comment-48651 |
| I guess many people do these days. Christmas comes in turns for many of us. Merry Christmas to you, Anna! Thank you very much for your kind words of support all year. It's been my pleasure all around to have you as a reader and active contributor. You really do make me a better thinker, writer, and person. |
2016-12-23T20:18:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/23/christmas-every-day/#comment-48631 |
| Thank you! | 2016-12-23T20:16:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/23/christmas-every-day/#comment-48630 |
| Thank you! To you as well! | 2016-12-21T14:50:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/21/solstice-greetings/#comment-48621 |
| We will get through this. | 2016-12-21T14:50:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/21/solstice-greetings/#comment-48620 |
| Precisely. Blocking all change is an inherently "conservative" position. It is not clear to me at all that we can or should do this. It is clearly effective, and we also clearly have a system designed to block nearly all change that is not backed by a broad consensus. Therefore, we have an inherently conservative (small "c") form of government (which is also not reactionary). Having said that, this is going to have a broad appeal among many Americans who are wary of change but still favor a broad array of basic rights including women's rights, choice, marriage equity, et cetera. I am not ready to say, "We must do all this, and do it now!" I will say that this component should probably be present. |
2016-12-19T21:16:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48610 |
| We do indeed. It has to be the first goal. |
2016-12-19T20:42:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48608 |
| A distinct possibility, yes. | 2016-12-19T20:42:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48607 |
| Tip O'Neill, Speaker of the House. But he credited his Dad with the orginal statement. | 2016-12-19T20:42:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48606 |
| Thank you! The methods were shown to work, for sure. | 2016-12-19T20:41:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48605 |
| I have a link at the top. | 2016-12-19T20:41:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/19/resistance/#comment-48604 |
| No, we won't get anything done for sure, and we can only hope to minimize the damage. There is still nothing actually good to look forward to, no. | 2016-12-16T14:52:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/16/dealing-with-crazy/#comment-48584 |
| You may be right, I may be crazy, But it just may be a lunatic you're looking for. - William Martin Joel | 2016-12-16T14:29:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/16/dealing-with-crazy/#comment-48582 |
| It's OK, I can handle it. But thank you! | 2016-12-16T14:27:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48580 |
| There is no doubt that some of this crazy has infiltrated our "leadership" for decades. Some of it we can see and already know how to combat. The intensity is going to go way up, however. And let's not forget how much we have been losing this War on Reality. | 2016-12-16T14:26:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/16/dealing-with-crazy/#comment-48579 |
| Avoidance isn't going to work, no. But I think we can pick our battles and ignore the crazy diversionary ones carefully. That's what I would advise. How effective will it be? We will have to see. We're going to be picking up new skills here. |
2016-12-16T14:25:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/16/dealing-with-crazy/#comment-48578 |
| I don't mean to disagree with you too vehemently, but just about anyone other than Trump represents a reduced chance of WWIII starting. I consider that to be a good thing. Yes, we have sunk that low. |
2016-12-14T22:26:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48568 |
| Yes, all of this is ridiculous. | 2016-12-14T20:13:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48566 |
| It's all about the latter. If that is what goes down, I support it. | 2016-12-14T17:02:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48564 |
| Thank you! | 2016-12-14T15:07:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48561 |
| None of this will please anyone no matter how it shakes out at this point. | 2016-12-14T15:07:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48560 |
| A few are standing up to him - McCain, Graham are the leaders. The rest may have to choose who they follow. | 2016-12-14T15:06:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/14/throw-it-to-the-house/#comment-48559 |
| Yes, I hear you. I have kids who are 16 and 20 and I keep thinking about the world I've passed on to them. I owe them more than this. | 2016-12-13T18:08:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48554 |
| It's so sad. This is indeed fascism. | 2016-12-13T18:07:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48553 |
| Yes. I have met a few of them. There are always a few. They can't be the standard for everything, however. | 2016-12-13T16:08:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48550 |
| It's worth a try. I wonder if people can imagine what would happen if things really did break down completely? | 2016-12-13T16:07:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48549 |
| Thanks! |
2016-12-13T16:07:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48548 |
| Yes, it has. And if we have to start from the ground up rebuilding first faith in civic life and then civics itself, we have to. I'm not sure what I can add at this point but it's clear to me that we have to start over, to re-invent the wheel. Seems really stupid, but fine - it's round folks, carry on. | 2016-12-13T16:07:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48547 |
| Yes, by all means. Thank you! | 2016-12-12T04:02:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/12/civics-101/#comment-48535 |
| Yes, it's hardly news. But that's the point. We have a confirmation that what everyone has "known" for years is indeed true. | 2016-12-08T23:28:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/07/bloated-pentagon-revealed/#comment-48520 |
| Exactly. Under competent leadership I see nothing but upside. There are tremendous resources available to correct any and all problems, and even a light hand on the tiller is probably going to produce good times at this point. But Trump is more likely to do damage than any good. That's the fear we have right now. |
2016-12-05T15:39:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/05/how-about-that-economy/#comment-48506 |
| Good way to look at it. It seems as though the "free market" reset itself in about 8 years or so, a total of 17 from top to bottom. That is a very long time and a lot of suffering. | 2016-12-05T15:38:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/05/how-about-that-economy/#comment-48505 |
| I understand that people are struggling, but what are we going to actually do about it? We needed a "New Deal" about 8 years ago, but politics prevented it. You could argue, as I have, that Obama should have been more forceful about creating a massive program of desperately needed public works, et cetera, and I would be with you. But it wasn't going to happen in this political climate. So we wound up with a slow climb out of the Depression instead of critical action. And we're almost there. And people's attitudes are indeed about to change. Do I think that a free-market alone solution was the best? Absolutely not. But as long as this is what people vote for, it's what we'll have. And it's going ... well, it's going slowly but it will get there in a few more years. |
2016-12-05T14:31:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/05/how-about-that-economy/#comment-48502 |
| That was the point! :-) Thank you! | 2016-12-02T18:33:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/02/tao/#comment-48484 |
| Thanks! | 2016-12-02T18:32:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/02/tao/#comment-48483 |
| Thanks! | 2016-12-02T18:32:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/02/tao/#comment-48482 |
| Thank you, too! It's a completely different way of looking at the world. While it doesn't explain everything in the Chinese outlook on life, it's a key starting place. | 2016-12-02T18:32:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/12/02/tao/#comment-48481 |
| Yes. They range from incompetent to ideologues. Yuck. | 2016-12-01T21:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48470 |
| Yes, there are still some boundaries. I agree that Trump will cross a few lines on Republicans and be replaced as soon as they can. | 2016-12-01T21:17:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48469 |
| This is very unlikely, I would say one in a million. But with the antics we have so far I would think some Electors will not be impressed. | 2016-11-30T14:29:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48457 |
| Yes. Anything is indeed possible. | 2016-11-30T14:28:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48456 |
| All around. It's not good for anyone. | 2016-11-30T14:28:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/30/the-outrage-is-only-starting/#comment-48455 |
| You're good, speak your mind. Always welcome. My problem right now is a simple one - I can't think of anything enlightening to say. I think there is evidence of a lot of fraud and possibly hacking in several states. The rise of the White Power groups is absolutely chilling. My first thought is that we need to prepare for anything, up to and including forming left-wing militias. Then again, I have a large number of personal problems right now, which I'll get into later. So what should I say? I'm waiting for some clarity, to be honest. I don't know yet. Meanwhile, say what you want. I appreciate it. |
2016-11-23T16:58:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/23/2016-holiday-shopping-forecast/#comment-48411 |
| I have heard some projecting a big downturn as consumer confidence takes a hit. I am watching for this. Keep in mind that there is a solid month or two lag in any statistics. | 2016-11-23T16:33:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/23/2016-holiday-shopping-forecast/#comment-48409 |
| I see your point. It is an annual feature, and I did not get around to it yet. This is probably the deadest day of the year for me, so I stuffed it here. Actually, Friday is a little worse, but I want to say something more important as we enter the holiday season. |
2016-11-23T16:32:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/23/2016-holiday-shopping-forecast/#comment-48408 |
| Exactly! Basic values. Things we need to be reminded of every day. Kindness, respect, things like that. | 2016-11-22T16:16:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/21/statuary/#comment-48396 |
| I can't imagine we are anywhere near a resolution | 2016-11-19T00:10:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-48375 |
| Thank you! | 2016-11-18T16:12:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/18/why-thanksgiving-is-in-november/#comment-48371 |
| Thank you. Indeed, Turkey fears the Kurds. Perhaps they should, in fact, given what they have done to them and how effective the Peshmerga has proven to be. I don't think the Kurds see themselves as Turkey's enemy, at least not right now. They are far too practical to pick a fight they don't need to. | 2016-11-18T00:20:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-48364 |
| I guess I would leave it at this - we can't say that Sanders would have beaten Trump because we didn't get to see what was in the Republican oppo file. We know it was a big file, however. | 2016-11-18T00:18:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48363 |
| I'll start with where we disagree- Sanders. He may have the right message, but he was a flawed messenger. The Repubs would have slaughtered him with his past record as a socialist. I do not think that we can say he would have fared better. On the rest, well, we agree. This could not be a referendum on Trump and trying to make it one was stupid. No one in a position of power seems to understand the basic disconnect with ordinary working class people. Where the Hell is Carville and "It's the Economy, Stupid" ??? |
2016-11-16T18:44:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48357 |
| This is very disturbing all around, especially since it's happened twice in five elections. | 2016-11-16T14:39:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48354 |
| Apparently | 2016-11-16T14:38:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48353 |
| Mine as well. :-) | 2016-11-16T14:23:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48350 |
| Hello! :-) | 2016-11-16T14:22:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48349 |
| This is shocking - a lack of a ground game will always kill us. And the lack of organizing between elections is indeed a sign of death. |
2016-11-16T14:22:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/16/what-went-wrong/#comment-48348 |
| Thank you! | 2016-11-15T14:09:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/14/black-friday-3/#comment-48334 |
| Amen. I agree to get dirty. We are all dirty already, might as well make work of it. | 2016-11-14T20:33:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48331 |
| We just need to get the message out - Keep Black Friday to one day only. | 2016-11-14T20:33:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/14/black-friday-3/#comment-48330 |
| I agree. If we learned one thing from the Nazis, it is this. | 2016-11-11T15:55:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/11/where-do-we-go-from-here/#comment-48317 |
| We always seem to. But some will struggle much more than others. | 2016-11-11T15:55:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/11/where-do-we-go-from-here/#comment-48316 |
| The world is changing rapidly, for a lot of reasons. Older people who woke up in a different world one day tend to be fearful and resentful. To the young, this is the only world they have ever known. And it is up to them to make it their world one day. We need them to have more control over this world, IMHO. They have the perspective to navigate it and the decisions made today will guide where it goes. Some elder wisdom to guide them is good, of course, but it should be tempered with the knowledge that it's not really our world anymore. |
2016-11-11T15:54:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/11/where-do-we-go-from-here/#comment-48315 |
| Good list. To me, it's all about generational change now. That's what we need. | 2016-11-11T00:54:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/11/where-do-we-go-from-here/#comment-48308 |
| I hope so. It's all I've got. | 2016-11-09T21:14:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48299 |
| That is what bothers me the most, yes. | 2016-11-09T20:53:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48297 |
| Amen, brother. | 2016-11-09T20:53:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48296 |
| For me, he has. I feel like I have nothing left. | 2016-11-09T20:52:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48295 |
| I honestly have no idea. I used to think I did, but apparently I was wrong. | 2016-11-09T15:09:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48291 |
| Apparently, Americans want to burn it all down. So we will watch it all burn. | 2016-11-09T14:11:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/09/the-wisdom-of-solomon/#comment-48288 |
| It does, yes. This could be a big blowout. | 2016-11-08T17:18:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48284 |
| Indeed. | 2016-11-08T17:16:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48282 |
| It's almost time, we're at the last mile of a terrible marathon. There's a reason we're sick and tired. :-) | 2016-11-07T16:45:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48279 |
| I think that prediction has already come true. :-) | 2016-11-07T16:44:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48278 |
| Thank you very much! Hoping for the best all around. | 2016-11-07T16:44:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48277 |
| Current prediction is that we'll all be fine. Hopefully I won't have to refine that as it gets closer. :-) | 2016-11-07T16:43:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48276 |
| That's what we can all hope for! | 2016-11-07T16:43:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/07/final-thoughts/#comment-48275 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-11-04T14:41:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/03/patriotism-2/#comment-48254 |
| A lot of people agree with you, I think. | 2016-11-04T13:42:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/04/powerpoint-is-a-blast/#comment-48252 |
| It has its place. It just gets outside of that very quickly. | 2016-11-04T13:41:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/04/powerpoint-is-a-blast/#comment-48251 |
| It's not good for anyone! | 2016-11-04T13:26:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/04/powerpoint-is-a-blast/#comment-48248 |
| Yes, it's about doing their damned job at some point. That's what we want elected officials to do. | 2016-11-03T13:33:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/31/unity-2/#comment-48245 |
| GDP would have been a bit different all the way through. That big swing down then up in 2008 would have been a lot smoother, for one. Today it would be higher. My guess is that the inventory number should change with GDP overall. When it doesn't that might mean something, but it doesn't seem to predict but lag so it's not all that useful. |
2016-11-02T16:37:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/02/gdp-catches-up/#comment-48239 |
| Thanks! | 2016-11-02T13:15:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/02/gdp-catches-up/#comment-48232 |
| The Pound has taken an incredible beating, which would normally be good for a manufacturing nation. Britain is not. I don't see this going anywhere good as investment really dries up. The key to me is risk - the UK is full of risk right now, meaning investors will mainly look elsewhere unless there is a premium for them. It will keep hurting for years. | 2016-11-02T13:15:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/02/gdp-catches-up/#comment-48231 |
| Thank you! | 2016-11-02T13:13:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/11/02/gdp-catches-up/#comment-48230 |
| Me, neither. This is the first election that I just want over. | 2016-10-31T14:36:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/31/unity-2/#comment-48218 |
| I'm talking about you and I, buddy. Leadership from the bottom! | 2016-10-31T14:36:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/31/unity-2/#comment-48217 |
| I love it, too! 23 years ago I saw it in the theater on opening night. :-) | 2016-10-28T17:27:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/28/the-nightmare-before-christmas-2/#comment-48204 |
| Thanks! | 2016-10-28T17:26:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/28/the-nightmare-before-christmas-2/#comment-48203 |
| No, he isn't. Certainly not going after Paul Ryan. I am pleased to be wrong about that part, yes. | 2016-10-26T14:21:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/26/how-an-election-is-actually-won/#comment-48193 |
| The name Trump will be synonymous with "Loser" when this is over. I think that part will go well enough. | 2016-10-26T14:21:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/26/how-an-election-is-actually-won/#comment-48192 |
| If Clinton is essentially the incumbent the goal is to embarrass the administration. It may require some follow-up. There is also the possibility of real damage to the infrastructure which winds up suppressing turnout, thus favoring Republicans, but I would put the odds of that happening at less than 1 in a million. Still, if the Russians think it's higher they might act. I agree that while it's might suspicious against Putin it really doesn't look like anything that's going to work to any real degree. So this may be a measure of this desperation, which frankly I think is what we are seeing in all the other actions. Keep in mind that at $50/bbl oil prices are so low that Russia is running out of money fast. http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/14/news/economy/russia-budget-oil-price/ |
2016-10-24T18:56:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/24/under-attack-from-who-and-why/#comment-48181 |
| Very good find, thank you! | 2016-10-24T18:50:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/24/under-attack-from-who-and-why/#comment-48180 |
| It's entirely possible that these cameras on the BotNet were far too easy to hack. No one changes the password on them, for one thing. We shouldn't jump to conclusions - but we also should not let our guard down as this attack is still underway. | 2016-10-24T18:50:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/24/under-attack-from-who-and-why/#comment-48179 |
| Right? Biggest blow-out and a major yawner if you only look at the top, biggest change if it runs down the ballot. Excitement is where you find it, eh? (No, I'm not talking about baseball ... but I could be, yes? :-) ) |
2016-10-24T18:32:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48175 |
| I have not read that - I will check it out, thanks! This post is all about my usual routine, which is to be all about context. The reports I've seen so far have been really thin on context such as how the systems work, etc. My big concern, however, is that the "Russian Context" is easily over-played without any evidence. As many of you know I am a major Putinophobe and will blame him for just about anything this side of inclement weather. So take it all with a grain of salt. But someone did this, we know, and it does look like it is targeting the center of the US internet. The odds of it being a real strike on the nation are pretty high. Russians? Can't say yet. But who else is a suspect? |
2016-10-24T18:31:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/24/under-attack-from-who-and-why/#comment-48174 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-10-24T18:28:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-48173 |
| Yes, I said nothing about State legislatures - which we need by 2020 to influence redistricting. I guess I am less interested in those now, but in the future they will be the biggest deal. | 2016-10-24T18:27:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48172 |
| My pleasure! | 2016-10-24T18:26:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48171 |
| I love the practical nature of your statement - "scared into working across party lines". Amen! We should never want one party to absolutely rule everything - even my party, much as I like us! Our system works best when everyone is engaged and working to make things better. If a good scare will do it, then let's scare 'em! | 2016-10-24T18:26:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48170 |
| That is indeed the most likely scenario. But it is worth watching, if for no other reason than there is nothing else worth watching. :-) | 2016-10-21T17:25:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48151 |
| It would be a whole new world, yes! | 2016-10-21T16:29:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/21/what-to-watch-on-election-night/#comment-48149 |
| There is a lot to crow about, and I do think that the Democrats in general have done a lousy job of it. I find it all very reprehensible. Things are, overall, not bad. The glass is half full. |
2016-10-19T19:26:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/19/oil-finds-a-range/#comment-48138 |
| Eventually, it works. :-) This is exactly correct - we have a range where everything is in balance and it appears to be stable. But there were two years of turmoil as the market responded to the increase in production from the US and then Iran plus responded to decreased demand caused by the high prices. The question is whether demand will increase at this level. It all happens very gradually, so we don't know yet. |
2016-10-19T19:25:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/19/oil-finds-a-range/#comment-48137 |
| That is a good plan, IMHO. | 2016-10-18T20:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48122 |
| That is the kind of thing that I would emphasize - more about how to get along with other cultures than anything. | 2016-10-18T20:15:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/17/donde-esta-el-bano/#comment-48121 |
| That's ma job! :-) | 2016-10-14T21:15:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48101 |
| I am also counting on this. I am presuming that Ryan will still be speaker, but look at how he is defending his own principles and people first. He will also want to work to get things done, I believe. | 2016-10-14T21:14:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48100 |
| Thank you! We have to work at it, nothing is automatic. But it can happen. | 2016-10-14T21:13:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48099 |
| You are always welcome to reblog! Thank you! | 2016-10-14T21:13:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48098 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-10-14T21:13:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48097 |
| A good point. It's not what we as a society learn as much as what each person learns. One less may be that politics really is awful. I hope isn't the lesson most people take from this. More people being turned off will only make things worse. | 2016-10-14T21:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48096 |
| That is what I hope can happen. My guess is that in the silence immediately after the election there will be a time to change the subject to something more positive. | 2016-10-14T21:11:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/14/keep-the-faith/#comment-48095 |
| Yes. But one that takes down everything. | 2016-10-12T15:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/12/gotterdamerung/#comment-48075 |
| Exactly. Notice that his main go-to insult is "weak". He's called Ryan that, among others. To Trump, Ryan "lacks the will" to paraphrase it into Hitler speech. He doesn't deserve the great gift of Trump. And so he must be punished. We have seen this all before. Trump is just a thin shadow of Hitler in so many ways. |
2016-10-12T13:40:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/12/gotterdamerung/#comment-48073 |
| Yes, indeed. The aftermath of this horrible election will tell us what lasting effects we have, however. | 2016-10-11T20:54:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48066 |
| NBC was going to release the tape, or so they say, but the Washington Post got a leaked copy of it and beat them by a few hours. Whether or not he knew he was being recorded is an issue. However, this was part of his role on The Apprentice, as he was hanging around with Billy Bush. So I think consent is hardly an issue here, and it has not been raised (I checked). |
2016-10-10T23:26:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48059 |
| It is increasingly looking like that will indeed happen. I still wonder about the House. The generic congressional ballot has the Dems up +7, which may be enough to take it. We'll see. | 2016-10-10T23:24:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48058 |
| He is indeed a pig. | 2016-10-10T23:23:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48057 |
| I can't get much worse. My guess is that this is the low point. I expect younger people to start demanding better, for one. | 2016-10-10T23:23:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48056 |
| You are most welcome. I do try to lead by example to the best of my ability. I was inspired, and so I feel a need to inspire in return. | 2016-10-10T23:22:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/10/over-the-lines/#comment-48055 |
| You are most welcome. We have to keep saying it until it actually happens, like a daily affirmation. | 2016-10-07T20:43:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/23/why-we-say-black-lives-matter/#comment-48037 |
| I have no idea. Honestly, it seems like a bad idea every way you look at it. | 2016-10-07T20:42:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/07/twitter-must-die-and-it-will/#comment-48036 |
| I think the vast majority of people will agree with you. | 2016-10-07T20:41:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/07/twitter-must-die-and-it-will/#comment-48035 |
| It is. That is correct, yes? :-) | 2016-10-06T23:04:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/05/the-final-countdown/#comment-48026 |
| We are just turning the corner. There is a big hole to climb out of, and I think we can say we are just poking our heads out, like a gopher. Looking around, it doesn't seem that great. | 2016-10-06T23:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/05/the-final-countdown/#comment-48025 |
| Not good. The ADP report came in with a weak gain of 154k. That isn't a good sign. We will see. | 2016-10-05T22:42:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/05/the-final-countdown/#comment-48017 |
| I agree, but it won't matter. Remember Lloyd Bentsen beating up Dan Quayle in 1988? Didn't change a thing. | 2016-10-05T22:41:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/05/the-final-countdown/#comment-48016 |
| Amen. Far too many people have learned far too well | 2016-10-04T23:04:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-48006 |
| Indeed, we are. It's our world if we want to make it. We are the dreamers of dreams. :-) |
2016-10-03T22:40:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/03/patriotism-2/#comment-47998 |
| Thanks! | 2016-10-03T22:39:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/10/03/patriotism-2/#comment-47997 |
| It is, indeed! Good catch! I decided to not emphasize that point. But yes, Africans beat Europeans on their own turf. :-) I decided to de-emphasize race generally in this piece. That was a strange decision, but I want my readers to focus as broadly as possible on the problem. Race has a way of narrowing the focus. If I was talking to a group of people I would start with race and pan out harder. But yes, the two problems with institutional racism are institutions and racism. They can be separated - and must be for us to tackle their different needs in their own way. Command of the field allows that separation, so command and maneuverability are the first key steps, IMHO. |
2016-09-30T15:41:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-47973 |
| Thanks! But this is about tactics, not strategy. :-) Seriously, the two meld together in a complex battlefield. The strategy is one of encapsulation, the tactics are flanking. That may be a bit too subtle a point to matter, though. | 2016-09-30T15:38:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-47972 |
| Yes, that is the key. Someone has to be the ones who turn down the volume and give everyone time to think. That someone has to be the ones in charge, the ones with the badges and guns. I will look that up, thanks! |
2016-09-30T15:37:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-47971 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-09-30T15:36:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/30/ending-institutional-racism/#comment-47970 |
| Amen. :-) | 2016-09-28T20:23:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/28/confidence-is-back/#comment-47948 |
| Indeed. It will soon be time to look for initial projections for holiday shopping. Just don't break out the Christmas music yet, please. :-) | 2016-09-28T16:52:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/28/confidence-is-back/#comment-47945 |
| Indeed, here is a link: swo8.wordpress.com/2016/09/28/game-of-chess-by-l-martel-3/ A fraud is always revealed - usually to themselves first. :-) |
2016-09-28T16:47:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/28/confidence-is-back/#comment-47943 |
| If the debate was on how we fill up the glass more, I am sure we would have some interesting ideas from ALL sides. I would like that debate. Is there something wrong now? Sure, a lot is wrong. A do-nothing Congress has not responded to the changes in how people work or how large corporations have become global, not national. There is a lot that should be done and a lot to go wrong if we don't respond. I'm with you on that. |
2016-09-28T14:48:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/28/confidence-is-back/#comment-47940 |
| It will all be over soon enough. :-) | 2016-09-28T01:20:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/26/debate-i-wanna-rebate/#comment-47936 |
| I think she did, too! :-) | 2016-09-28T01:20:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/26/debate-i-wanna-rebate/#comment-47935 |
| Definitely the way to go in this election. Yeesh. | 2016-09-28T01:20:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/26/debate-i-wanna-rebate/#comment-47934 |
| Good point - are we getting serious about it or not? That is probably the right question. Quick anger favors Trump, seriousness favors Clinton. | 2016-09-21T15:13:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/21/terror-sinks-in/#comment-47883 |
| Polls suggest that a slim majority favor Clinton on this. You would think it should be higher, but we'll take it. | 2016-09-21T15:12:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/21/terror-sinks-in/#comment-47882 |
| That is true of a lot of our world today :-) | 2016-09-19T23:33:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/19/formal-e-mail-tips-concepts/#comment-47858 |
| You don't want to be too cold, but yes. It's important to get to the point if you want someone to respond and take action. You have to tell them what you want in plain English. | 2016-09-19T16:42:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/19/formal-e-mail-tips-concepts/#comment-47850 |
| It is still important, especially for business. There is no better way to manage messages. If anything, it is more important in the case described here - a replacement for the formal business letter. | 2016-09-19T16:41:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/19/formal-e-mail-tips-concepts/#comment-47849 |
| The market for consumer services seems to be moving this way no matter what, so I think we'll see this recognized. People really hate banks! | 2016-09-16T21:00:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/16/simply-too-big/#comment-47832 |
| Ego has to play a role, for sure. But decades of learning doesn't wring out of those at the top overnight. There has to be competition from smaller banks nipping at their heals before a "fast and limber" approach proves itself. | 2016-09-16T15:47:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/16/simply-too-big/#comment-47829 |
| Things don't happen overnight. Wall Street is doing something about it -avoiding their stocks. That limits their ability to raise more capital and gives an advantage to more profitable banks. The free market does work, but really only in the long run. In the short run major changes, such as this, take time to absorb. |
2016-09-16T15:46:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/16/simply-too-big/#comment-47828 |
| Let's see how this plays out. He may get more pressure to do the same now that Clinton has released her report. | 2016-09-14T21:39:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47811 |
| He was 69, which is to say a year older than Clinton and a year younger than Trump. Not really that old, actually. | 2016-09-14T16:15:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47809 |
| I do think this is a legitimate issue, for sure, but I think it's been answered or will be answered once she is over pneumonia. And we will move on. | 2016-09-14T16:14:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47808 |
| It is not. She is the presumptive President at this time and it is very reasonable to make sure she is up to it. I do think she gets extra scrutiny as a woman, yes, but this issue is not one of those times. I hope we can move on from this once the question appears answered - which for me is about now. |
2016-09-14T16:14:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47807 |
| I don't doubt that new restrictions would calm things down a little, which would be good. If we do come up with sensible, simple things which help us get some sense of "well ordered" to this strange "militia" we've created all the better. And weapons have indeed changed. But do I think it's going to make a night and day kind of change by itself? No. There has to be more, there has to be a cultural part of this. And that will take time and a lot of honest, open discussion. So let's start now! Thanks for your comments! |
2016-09-14T16:12:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-47805 |
| Checked out your piece, good stuff! Her health is a topic, but we should deal with it an move on, IMHO. This stuff always gets silly. | 2016-09-14T16:09:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/14/clinton-stumbles/#comment-47804 |
| Just about, yes. | 2016-09-12T19:40:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/12/shipping-meltdown-or-not/#comment-47792 |
| That seems to be true. But why? I have no idea. | 2016-09-12T19:40:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/12/shipping-meltdown-or-not/#comment-47791 |
| Usually, yes | 2016-09-12T19:39:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/12/shipping-meltdown-or-not/#comment-47790 |
| Yup. Professionalizing everything has ruined ... well, just about everything. |
2016-09-12T19:39:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/12/shipping-meltdown-or-not/#comment-47789 |
| True enough. But the competition might change that. | 2016-09-09T19:01:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/09/another-way/#comment-47770 |
| Look to the UK. No one is elected to Parliament with a majority of the vote, and everyone just accepts that. There is also Instant Runoff Voting, but I would favor a runoff election two weeks later if you really want to have a majority. Lastly, I could see states changing their Senate to be elected state-wide by party slate - so that if Libertarians get 9% of the vote they get 9% of the seats. |
2016-09-09T18:59:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/09/another-way/#comment-47769 |
| It has always been that way, yes. But a group more along the lines of Gary Johnson isn't going to be like that. And certainly if they are fully engaged in conversation they won't put up with that crap. To me there is only one solution to the "corruption" in Washington - and I put it in quotes because you can and should take it broadly enough to mean otherwise legitimate organizing like ALEC and other groups which wind up with way too much influence. To me, that solution has to be engagement and conversation. An engaged population won't put up with anyone having too much influence for any reason. We can pass laws on campaign contributions, etc, but in the end the only real solution is a functioning Democratic Republic. That's why I wrote this. It gives me great hope. I'm not saying Libertarians are the answer, I'm saying people really do understand the answer. It will take more than two functioning parties - and we're down to one right now. Maybe 3/4. |
2016-09-09T15:18:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/09/another-way/#comment-47765 |
| If they do provide an important service I agree with you. I think Capella does, for one. But the whole industry could benefit from more regulation which makes consumers more aware of what they are getting into and builds confidence. | 2016-09-07T16:35:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47756 |
| A very good point. We can devise a whole system that also recruits students from the unemployment rolls. I'm not saying that would work for everyone, but it could work for a lot of people. It would work especially well for a 4-6 week certification program - basically, pass this and you have a job. | 2016-09-07T14:44:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47754 |
| I think that in this market, given the amount of structure, there is no way a for-profit will ever distinguish itself that much from a non-profit. Quality, sure, but that would be about the only way it could. I think the concept of a degree in "X" skillset is getting very silly. Certifications of some kind which are more flexible and quick make more sense - on top of a "Liberal Arts" kind of degree with maybe some general breakdown - eg, Engineering, Sciences, etc. A PhD in Chemistry I can handle. A BA/BS? I dunno. |
2016-09-07T01:08:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47744 |
| I haven't written about it in a long time, but yes - the main reason manufacturing jobs were so good is that they offered a lot of upward mobility. Looking back on it, however, I can't see any reason why that was necessarily true - but it certainly was traditional. Loyalty used to be a big thing in every corporation, but it was especially true in manufacturing. I honestly don't know why. duPont makes me angry. They are indeed dead. The European chemical companies are not doing all that well, either, but they aren't dead. It's something. The move to specialties as good profit centers has helped a lot. I don't think workers move between companies because they would have to move to a new city to do so - and Germans don't usually move. But I do think they could if there was an opening, yes. They have a system based partially on seniority but also based on qualifications for skill as set up by the unions. You achieve a rank based on what you know. Very German. |
2016-09-07T00:58:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47742 |
| Start with the last part - Hey, I had to disclose! It didn't seem good without it up front! OK, as for the rest of it. Yes! The model we use is that everything falls on the worker. So we get some of that to be picked up by the government but where is the On the Job Training? I've written about this before and feel that it simply HAS to make a come-back. Looking at this news item strictly in isolation, however, we can see why. The model that implies skills are acquired from an educational institution which responds to the market really doesn't work. It may work if we start talking about certifications rather than actual degrees, but as it stands now the model is broken no matter how you look at it. I'm not against private for-profit education. But I will admit that it's not living up to a major part of its promise when it comes to what ITT was offering. If you think such schools should be closed I'll tell you this - the free market is about to close them because consumer confidence is waning fast. The industry has to nearly re-invent itself if it's going to remain - and it really does need more regulation, or at least better regulation, if it's going to restore confidence. Is there a role for purely vocational education? I'd say yes, there is. Not as a centerpiece of all education, but there is a role for it. Is this the best way to do it? Doesn't look like it is now. |
2016-09-07T00:48:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47739 |
| The principle is that a for-profit model is more responsive and can give people the skills they need. That doesn't work anywhere near as well as advertised and may be impossible given how these institutions have to be regulated. If there is a way out of it which demonstrates the value of for-profits I'm all for it. And I certainly value the education I received at Carnegie, although it was entirely paid for on scholarship. But as it stands now the only way we have to really regulate them is with a very blunt instrument. That doesn't do anyone any good. |
2016-09-07T00:38:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/07/education-at-the-speed-of-profit/#comment-47737 |
| I love working this stuff through in discussion and debate. :-) | 2016-09-05T16:27:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47725 |
| Thank you! And cheers to the workingman, the members of the Unions that built our nation! | 2016-09-05T16:25:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47723 |
| This is a take-off from my previous predictions that: 1) There will be a labor shortage in the near future, and 2) Companies are going to keep demanding higher skill levels. We have already seen both trends forming around us. If they accelerate, as we can expect, we will be in a condition that has always created labor unions. Always. It simply seems inevitable. |
2016-09-05T16:24:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47722 |
| Good point. They will, and that might well be the spark that makes educated professionals see the need for some kind of organization - call it a Guild, a Union, a Professional Association, whatever. | 2016-09-05T16:23:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/05/labor-unions-are-inevitable/#comment-47721 |
| Demographics is destiny. The wave of retirement is real and it will take nearly 10M workers out of the pool in the next 4 years. There are about 7 million who might replace them. That's 2% of the total workforce, pushing headline unemployment under 3%. It is never under 3% - 4% is pretty much full employment. | 2016-09-02T18:23:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/02/labor-day-2016/#comment-47695 |
| It will be a few years before this happens, and I do expect when it is first proposed there will be a massive backlash, yes. But this will come. | 2016-09-02T15:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/09/02/labor-day-2016/#comment-47693 |
| A good point, but unlike individuals they exist solely for semi-public function. I have always thought that taxing corporations, not people, made the most sense as I don't see how corporations have an inherent right to privacy. | 2016-08-31T16:12:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/31/irelands-big-payday/#comment-47672 |
| That is one point worth taking from this, but as you said Apple customers do take on a "cult-like" insulation from all of this. I hope it does cost Apple in a big way - simply so that it sets an example. That could be a source of pressure for us to at least attempt to harmonize our corporate tax laws with the rest of the world. | 2016-08-31T16:11:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/31/irelands-big-payday/#comment-47671 |
| Thank you! | 2016-08-29T16:40:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/29/racists-anonymous/#comment-47649 |
| Thank you! I'm trying to do what I can to spread positive examples and ideas. | 2016-08-29T14:54:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/29/racists-anonymous/#comment-47645 |
| Thanks. But we all know it's true, yes? Whatever we can do to work through this we have to do. Seriously, "there are many paths to enlightenment" wasn't as good? :-) | 2016-08-29T14:54:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/29/racists-anonymous/#comment-47644 |
| Very much so. | 2016-08-29T14:47:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47641 |
| Absolutely! Very few people are able to embrace real empathy and real empowerment. I have seen white liberals act and speak in very patronizing ways - it's infuriating. There is a lot to get past everywhere. Racism is at the core of our nation. | 2016-08-29T14:47:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/29/racists-anonymous/#comment-47640 |
| Absolutely! As I mentioned here, they are the only ones anyone can rely on. It makes Turkey very nervous, but they are, as I noted previously, earning their nationhood the hard way. | 2016-08-29T14:35:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47637 |
| I'm a big Fed supporter generally, as they are one of the few truly functional parts of our "government" (they aren't really government) But YES, they must do this. They have to re-focus and be very open about it. | 2016-08-27T16:15:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/26/a-new-fed/#comment-47622 |
| Right now, I'd say 3 of 12 Presidents plus the Chair favor serious attention to outreach and transparency. it's really just a start, but a good one. | 2016-08-27T15:46:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/26/a-new-fed/#comment-47620 |
| Generally, you do have a point. There's always Margaret Thatcher, however. :-) | 2016-08-27T15:45:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/26/a-new-fed/#comment-47619 |
| That's how I see it. I would like them to be more open if they have more power, of course. | 2016-08-27T15:44:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/26/a-new-fed/#comment-47618 |
| Yes, absolutely! And the bond market is behind this with so much money going to T-Bills in search of a "safe haven". We have a 30yr bond rate of 2.25% and a growth in GDP of over 3% (no inflation) - that's basically free money by any measure. We have no excuse for not doing what the bond market says we should be doing - infrastructure. It's desperately needed, as are pushes for clean energy (via a prize system?) and so on. | 2016-08-24T17:56:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/24/productivity-down-blame-the-kids/#comment-47594 |
| Year over year, oil is if anything up. So that effect has been accounted for. Thanks! | 2016-08-24T15:39:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/24/productivity-down-blame-the-kids/#comment-47591 |
| Eventually job growth will slow, yes, but for now we are doing well. This is an example of how dumb it gets, yes. | 2016-08-24T15:39:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/24/productivity-down-blame-the-kids/#comment-47590 |
| I still think that trade deals really don't influence anything but the margins. There is definitely a general belief that there isn't anything good to invest in at this time, which is terrible for the economy. It's the one thing holding us back, and it seems to be a matter of faith more than anything else. | 2016-08-24T15:38:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/24/productivity-down-blame-the-kids/#comment-47589 |
| Yes, them. Sanders got a completely raw deal. My best guess is that he wasn't sensational enough, but the lack of reporting on Sanders was appalling. | 2016-08-23T13:46:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/22/is-objectivity-dead/#comment-47579 |
| Good point, but we are in a very bad place right now. We have to get out of it as soon as the Trump threat is over, if not sooner. And yes, we will have his people around for a long time - does that mean we're constantly going to be at war? That doesn't bode well for a better future, as I do believe we are indeed "Stronger Together". | 2016-08-22T17:39:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/22/is-objectivity-dead/#comment-47574 |
| I don't want thing to return to the "good old days", but i do hope we can try again to find a way to at least engage in conversation. Most of the "news" I see attempt to be definitive, which is rather ridiculous. And arrogant. Barataria has to make a strong statement, but I do try to pose everything as a question - invite people to be a part of the conversation. That is always the best part. Language along the lines of "it seems as though" and peppering each piece with questions are how I ride that line between definitive, strong prose that's not too mushy and an a call for an open dialogue. You can tell me how it works. I'm always working on refining it. |
2016-08-22T15:29:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/22/is-objectivity-dead/#comment-47572 |
| To me, it's all about transparency. I do feel that everyone, even those of us who try to be objective (count me 50% on that, please) have a perspective we start from. Stating that up front makes all the difference. You talk about the UK stations and their shared audience which they compete for. A clear mission statement would clarify this - "We at ITV strive to inform and entertain, particularly the key demographic of 25-40 year old men". No, they will never be that blunt, but you get the idea. We'd know what they are doing. :-) |
2016-08-22T15:26:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/22/is-objectivity-dead/#comment-47571 |
| It will be, indeed. They will probably say it was all planned / rigged. | 2016-08-17T14:17:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47534 |
| They are both bad people, but I do agree with you. This is very far from the reboot we need, and the potential problems it all stirs up with Turkey, vis a vis the Kurdish question, are very dangerous. But yes, a foreign policy based on bogeymen is not a real policy but an electoral strategy. | 2016-08-17T14:16:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47533 |
| The torment of the Syrian people is far from over. | 2016-08-17T14:15:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47532 |
| Even putting Da'ish on the run will be a good thing to crow about for the election. So something will happen, yes. | 2016-08-17T14:15:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47531 |
| Don't get me wrong, if we do indeed wipe Isis Isis off the face of the Earth I cannot imagine it helping the people of Syria one bit, let alone making any kind of significant change to the region. But we have set up the situation so that Isis is all the US public cares about and it is actually possible for the administration to declare Victory there. | 2016-08-17T03:46:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/17/defeating-isis/#comment-47525 |
| Mostly. But elections do indeed come from the guts, so you can't stay in the head all the time. | 2016-08-15T23:07:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/15/facts-or-feelings/#comment-47516 |
| It is nice. When it happens, that is. :-) | 2016-08-15T23:07:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/15/facts-or-feelings/#comment-47515 |
| Good point. The urgency of something that is fact-based can trigger a more gut reaction in some people than in others. |
2016-08-15T15:19:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/15/facts-or-feelings/#comment-47512 |
| This is what I think we need to be talking about. I'm not saying I have all the answers, I'm saying we do have a great opportunity. This is one vision of what it might develop into. We do have to deal with Iran - no matter what it means. But I'm not sure we have to get rid of al Assad, to be honest. Is that really our purvey? Should we be messing around with other nations in the middle of a civil war? |
2016-08-14T16:09:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/12/resetting-the-middle-east/#comment-47504 |
| I have been looking around and I don't see any other place where we are as deeply engaged and mucking around with forces we don't understand - getting ourselves in over our head and not able to swim our way out of. The world really is at peace, mostly, by comparison to past eras. We are much more responsible than we have been previously - we stayed out of Ukraine, we don't screw around with South America, we're not anywhere in Africa. We're not doing anything too stupid by comparison - except in the Middle East. | 2016-08-14T16:03:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/12/resetting-the-middle-east/#comment-47503 |
| Many points: 1) If this is at least a starting point for a civilized, decent foreign policy in the region, how on earth do we get there? Does this mean we throw our "partners" in the Gulf under the bus? Any normalizing with Iran will sure feel like it to them - and to Israel, of course. It will be hard to steer this course - and Erdogan is not making it any easier. 2) You could easily call what I've written "self righteous", and I accept that. "Freedom" is a loaded term all around - does that mean completely Western? I don't think so, but there are basic human rights we have to insist on. Doing so invariably becomes self righteous, at least when we've done it in the past. This point alone is worth a lot of soul-searching, IMHO. 3) Fracking. Yuck. I am convinced it can be done cleanly - but it will take a LOT of regulation. Also, it's important to note that the majority of wells in the US are done by "wildcatters" - small operators, often funded by junk bonds, who are throwing the dice really hard. If it all fails they walk away and declare bankruptcy, screwing everyone. "Big Oil" would actually be preferable in that it would be much harder for them to get away with what the small operators do - it would be much easier to regulate and police. I dunno. I am convinced that it can be done cleanly and safely, but we are very much not there yet. It will take a concerted effort to get there. I really appreciate your comments here. I wish we had discussions like this on CNN et cetera rather than the nonsense we have. |
2016-08-14T15:58:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/12/resetting-the-middle-east/#comment-47502 |
| Let's not forget Defense Contractors. There is a lot to be countered to get us to this point, absolutely, but there is no reason we cannot now. I am trying to flesh out what a foreign policy based on promoting peace and freedom would look like. I don't think it's gotten the attention it deserves. There are a lot of details here, and a lot depends on who is Secretary of State. But this is what it might look like. I want us to start thinking about it more than anything. |
2016-08-12T14:14:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/12/resetting-the-middle-east/#comment-47487 |
| Thanks! There is a lot of good out there. It's just leveraging it to something better! | 2016-08-10T19:07:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/10/energy-independence-and-beyond/#comment-47474 |
| It's never even been raised. I think that with the right commitment to reconfiguring as a rapid deployment force, we could easily lose most of our forward bases. That's worth over $100B per year. | 2016-08-10T19:07:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/10/energy-independence-and-beyond/#comment-47473 |
| As long as we don't screw it up, good things could happen, yes. | 2016-08-10T19:06:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/10/energy-independence-and-beyond/#comment-47472 |
| No, we haven't gotten there. But we could if we aren't careful - and I fear Europe is getting there. | 2016-08-09T15:55:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/08/player-piano-2/#comment-47454 |
| The glass is half full. Sure, I'd say that, I'm an optimist. You want to say it's half empty, well, let's talk. Just don't try to tell me it's completely empty! :-) | 2016-08-08T15:25:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/08/player-piano-2/#comment-47447 |
| Thank you! |
2016-08-05T16:42:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/05/happy-as-a-pig-in-something/#comment-47429 |
| I am familiar with many translations of the Tao Te Ching (old spelling) and they do vary a lot. It's clear to me that "ten thousand things" means something like "everything" but is more poetic, for example. | 2016-08-05T13:33:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/05/happy-as-a-pig-in-something/#comment-47426 |
| It would be fun to compare idioms with a non-European language speaker - I'm sure nothing is actually translatable. It's the cat's pajamas! (or is that just plain old by now?) | 2016-08-05T01:23:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/05/happy-as-a-pig-in-something/#comment-47421 |
| Indeed! Although I remember a Belgian I worked with once said, "You know the old expression - when the cat's away the mice are dancing." That rhymes in Flemish, something like "Wan de katze gegangen de mause sind tanzen." (I really don't know Flemish and my memory of it gets mixed up with German, so it's just close). Anyways, some of them translate to European cultures, which is really funny! |
2016-08-05T00:56:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/05/happy-as-a-pig-in-something/#comment-47419 |
| Thank you very much! |
2016-08-04T19:19:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47417 |
| Thank you! Yes, it is indeed. | 2016-08-03T19:15:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47409 |
| Of course, this is just one part of it - and I think the hard part. A friend just called for a minimum income for all, for example, and peteybee here talked about reducing hours. Both are good. | 2016-08-03T15:41:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47405 |
| So far, the median age at retirement is still 65. It seems to be mostly working out. Not sure what quality of life people have but it's still the same age. | 2016-08-03T15:40:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47404 |
| Yes. You are right, where we might have a little time here other nations have no time to lose. | 2016-08-03T14:06:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47400 |
| Definitely - but first we have to have workers productive enough to make that possible. Or some system for really sharing the wealth. Or possibly both. But as surely as automation is coming, the possibility of a divided society - into those who are part of it and those who aren't - is what we have to avoid. Then we can talk about reducing hours. https://erikhare.com/2014/08/27/player-piano/ |
2016-08-03T03:41:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/03/the-future-of-work/#comment-47394 |
| There is a lot more to say about waves and progress, but it's very easy to get really far into the weeds with this. I struggle with that all the time. | 2016-08-02T15:41:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/01/progress-and-history/#comment-47381 |
| It's not dead it's resting. Pining for the fjords. :-) Seriously, I didn't say it was dead, I agreed with the IMF paper which said it was oversold. And the way it was oversold was by not recognizing the effects of business cycles - which is what I centered on in this piece on progressive eras. https://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/ What it comes down to is this: A rising tide still lifts all ships, but when the tide goes out and the ship hits the rocks, guess who is first in the lifeboats? Income inequality is a strong function of business cycles for a lot of reason. There's more to cycles than that, of course, and I'm trying very hard to not turn into one of those cranks who says that K-Waves explain everything. But they sure explain a lot. Is Neoliberalism dead? The term describes a re-invention of "Liberalism" as the term was used in the late 19th/early 20th Centries - a term still used by The Economist. What I see is a Neo-Neoliberalism, another wave of new thought interjected into the notion that free markets do work and economic freedom is closely tied to political freedom. I still buy that. I suspect that this wave of progressivism will include that, given the general skepticism of big government. But it's not coming together very quickly as a philosophy. |
2016-08-01T16:29:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/01/progress-and-history/#comment-47374 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-08-01T16:23:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/01/progress-and-history/#comment-47373 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-08-01T15:29:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/08/01/progress-and-history/#comment-47370 |
| Time will tell. But we have been moving this direction, steadily, for six years now. The easiest call to make is "Trends will continue". There is nothing about this call that is "out there". | 2016-07-29T14:32:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/29/spring-is-coming/#comment-47342 |
| No, I don't buy that. I would much prefer if we didn't have nuclear weapons as close as Turkey, but the Baltic States joined NATO because of bad history and Putin saying that he intends to reconstitute the USSR. I do not see that NATO has provoked anything here. | 2016-07-27T16:23:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47321 |
| I deliberately avoided it, yes. I want to see proof he really sold out this nation before I do. Do I think the evidence shows that he either has or plans to? Oh, yes. | 2016-07-27T16:21:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47320 |
| That's possible, but I think that what counts is that Trump isn't very bright and can be bought rather easily. | 2016-07-27T16:20:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47318 |
| Every nation has to have some concept of the rule of law. That's what the EU was trying to push for in Ukraine when everything exploded. Russia will fight that to the end because they are run by a lawless mafia. | 2016-07-27T16:19:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47317 |
| Not at all. Even one large rogue nation hurts us all. | 2016-07-27T15:40:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47312 |
| In a certain sense, the current state of Russia is what happens when those kind of forces take over the state. There is essentially nothing left. | 2016-07-27T14:11:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/27/beyond-watergate/#comment-47309 |
| But we gotta try. We don't want rational people to be influenced by this poison. If the nonsense goes unanswered, they may. | 2016-07-27T00:01:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47302 |
| It's up to all of us to counter it and tell the truth. We have to have truth on our side! | 2016-07-25T22:25:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47298 |
| Absolutely! | 2016-07-25T22:24:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47297 |
| Thank you very much! I do appreciate your re-blogs, they are a high compliment! | 2016-07-25T18:18:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47291 |
| I haven't heard anything surrounding those where facts are twisted somehow, so if you have examples of "facts" which don't smell right supporting something let me know. What I've heard on that sort of stuff is more garden variety political, e.g. "Redistributing wealth never works" or "Chopping up big banks will lead to higher rates for (something)." | 2016-07-25T03:54:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/25/countering-bs-arguments/#comment-47287 |
| I consider Piketty essentially a Keynesian in terms of this debate, although his solutions are a bit more permanent than Keynesians usually talk about. But it's about keeping up demand in a nice, steady flow by sharing the wealth more evenly. Piketty says little to nothing about debt, which I think is a failure on his part. I do think business cycles are the most important thing to consider overall. A rising tide still lifts all ships, but when the ship hits the rocks at low tide who are the first on the lifeboats? That is what seems to crush working people, IMHO. Understanding just what business cycles are and what causes them is important. |
2016-07-22T16:35:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/22/three-views-of-the-economy/#comment-47268 |
| It's still out there. This is a set-up for something coming out of the Federal Reserve. They are getting more Keynesian all the time, but not without a fight. | 2016-07-22T14:04:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/22/three-views-of-the-economy/#comment-47266 |
| Very good, I do agree we need a higher inflation target. I just don't know how we get the velocity up where it has to be to achieve that. But yes, all around, inflation is a good thing in small amounts. | 2016-07-22T14:03:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/22/three-views-of-the-economy/#comment-47265 |
| With Putin in the mix, of course. The perennial enemy of Turkey. | 2016-07-20T19:09:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/20/erdogans-power-grab/#comment-47254 |
| Thank you! | 2016-07-20T19:08:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/20/erdogans-power-grab/#comment-47253 |
| Will this get out into the world, however? Pence was clearly forced on Trump by the same people who drafted that horrible platform. I don't understand it at all. Ideological purity is definitely more important to them than winning - or governing, for that matter. And they are really evil, yes - and I hate to use that word. I have yet to find words to describe just how I feel about this. | 2016-07-18T16:04:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47244 |
| Letting him talk is a good strategy, yes. The more he hogs the press the more we see who he is. The Iraq War part of the Lesley Stahl interview was the most telling to me - Pence gets a pass? Hmmmm .... | 2016-07-18T15:49:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47242 |
| Peace to everyone. Peace to us all. Way too much violence lately. | 2016-07-18T15:15:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47239 |
| Indeed. I would love to say they don't matter anymore and we can stop having them. I've always hated them, but after St Paul hosted the 2008 convention I now see them as an atrocity. "Free Speech Zone" ??? What a crime that is all around. And they do attract all the crazies so as much as I want to blame the police state, always out in full force, there is a lot of blame to go around. Just horrible things. | 2016-07-18T15:15:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47238 |
| Yes, the potential for violence is the big wild card. Ug. Thank yoU! | 2016-07-18T15:13:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47236 |
| I think he will be on the ticket now for sure. But yes, I suppose we have to expect a surprise. How do we do that? :-) | 2016-07-18T15:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47235 |
| I hope it's quiet, to be honest. I would not want to see dead bodies no matter how much it helps "my side". | 2016-07-18T15:12:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/18/the-race-is-hotter-than-july/#comment-47234 |
| It would be novel, yes? :-) | 2016-07-15T17:28:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/15/forcing-investment/#comment-47223 |
| Exactly. I didn't want to dwell on it this time around, as we've done a lot, but the American Society for Civil Engineers puts the infrastructure deficit at $3.6 trillion. We might be able to close half of that by 2020 with a concerted effort involving state and local governments if we re-prioritize Federal spending. http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org |
2016-07-15T17:28:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/15/forcing-investment/#comment-47222 |
| Very much so, nothing is "over". | 2016-07-13T17:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/13/the-big-endorsement/#comment-47203 |
| I think the platform came out very good all around. Clinton was forced to make promises that she can keep, which is to say that there is more to them and they are integrated into a solid budget plan. This is a win all around. | 2016-07-13T17:04:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/13/the-big-endorsement/#comment-47202 |
| I think she may be sincere on TPP, if for no other reason than she knows that complex trade deals (if it's really a trade deal) are a dead issue politically. It's also important to see who else becomes part of the inner circle. I'm assuming Robert Reich would impress you if he looked like he would return to the cabinet, no? So there probably is a lot more to reach out on, yes. It's a process. Yes, it's all about Congress at this point to me. We'll never get anything done until we get both houses, and that is still a tall order. Sigh. Even then, I'm sure progressives will have to keep the pressure on to avoid something bad from happening. |
2016-07-13T17:03:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/13/the-big-endorsement/#comment-47201 |
| I will try to pin this to the bottom as a "last word" by adjusting the date forward. SEPTEMBER 1, 1939 by W.H. Auden I sit in one of the dives On Fifty-second Street Uncertain and afraid As the clever hopes expire Of a low dishonest decade: Waves of anger and fear Circulate over the bright And darkened lands of the earth, Obsessing our private lives; The unmentionable odour of death Offends the September night. Accurate scholarship can Unearth the whole offence From Luther until now That has driven a culture mad, Find what occurred at Linz, What huge imago made A psychopathic god: I and the public know What all schoolchildren learn, Those to whom evil is done Do evil in return. Exiled Thucydides knew All that a speech can say About Democracy, And what dictators do, The elderly rubbish they talk To an apathetic grave; Analysed all in his book, The enlightenment driven away, The habit-forming pain, Mismanagement and grief: We must suffer them all again. Into this neutral air Where blind skyscrapers use Their full height to proclaim The strength of Collective Man, Each language pours its vain Competitive excuse: But who can live for long In an euphoric dream; Out of the mirror they stare, Imperialism's face And the international wrong. Faces along the bar Cling to their average day: The lights must never go out, The music must always play, All the conventions conspire To make this fort assume The furniture of home; Lest we should see where we are, Lost in a haunted wood, Children afraid of the night Who have never been happy or good. The windiest militant trash Important Persons shout Is not so crude as our wish: What mad Nijinsky wrote About Diaghilev Is true of the normal heart; For the error bred in the bone Of each woman and each man Craves what it cannot have, Not universal love But to be loved alone. From the conservative dark Into the ethical life The dense commuters come, Repeating their morning vow; 'I will be true to the wife, I'll concentrate more on my work,' And helpless governors wake To resume their compulsory game: Who can release them now, Who can reach the dead, Who can speak for the dumb? All I have is a voice To undo the folded lie, The romantic lie in the brain Of the sensual man-in-the-street And the lie of Authority Whose buildings grope the sky: There is no such thing as the State And no one exists alone; Hunger allows no choice To the citizen or the police; We must love one another or die. Defenseless under the night Our world in stupor lies; Yet, dotted everywhere, Ironic points of light Flash out wherever the Just Exchange their messages: May I, composed like them Of Eros and of dust, Beleaguered by the same Negation and despair, Show an affirming flame. | 2016-07-13T16:22:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46886 |
| It is all about training, in my opinion. And making sure that the police have the resources to do their job without getting burned out and overwhelmed. | 2016-07-11T20:33:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-47183 |
| You said "them". :-) Seriously, I think everyone can see what is being protested now and why we have to change. | 2016-07-11T14:12:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-47177 |
| Thank you! Would I like a wider audience? Of course! I'd love to be paid, too. And I think that a lot of consumers of news (lectovores in general) would like my context-rich approach. I know I'm having an influence as it is, and that's enough for now. As long as it gets me a good job somewhere near the field I'll be happy. |
2016-07-11T14:12:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-47176 |
| Martha, that makes sense to me. I am hesitating because the law itself says that you do NOT have to reveal you have a gun unless asked. There does seem to be some confusion as to the proper protocol. This should be cleared up as soon as possible. I would like for someone official to state some kind of authoritative procedure for a traffic stop while carrying. And I do hope that what you tell me turns out to be right. I am sure we both agree that Castille's death did not have to happen no matter how you look at it, however. |
2016-07-11T00:48:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/11/us-versus-them-put-it-to-an-end/#comment-47171 |
| You are probably right. I can't see any such agreement passing any time soon even if there was one. | 2016-07-08T15:31:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/08/corporate-taxes/#comment-47158 |
| So far, doing nothing favors the big interests. Perhaps step one is to change it so that this isn't an option. | 2016-07-08T13:06:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/08/corporate-taxes/#comment-47155 |
| They will always be complicated, but they don't have to be this porous. I can't see why any large company actually pays taxes in this system. | 2016-07-08T13:05:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/08/corporate-taxes/#comment-47154 |
| Now, now. They haven't done anything that was actually criminal. | 2016-07-06T15:50:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47141 |
| Mostly, yes. But while prosecution was probably not justified, every similar case was at least investigated by the FBI, meaning Clinton got the treatment that everyone else does. That's only fair. | 2016-07-06T15:49:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47140 |
| An excellent piece, and I agree with it, too. Leaking for the purpose of informing the public has been raised to the status of selling secrets to the enemy, and that is terrible. I agree with the author that prosecution in this case was not justified, but it's been justified in far, far too many situations lately. We need a complete re-think about what "classified" is and how we can develop the more open government we need. | 2016-07-06T15:48:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47139 |
| Thanks! | 2016-07-06T15:46:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47138 |
| She definitely should have asked more questions. Whether or not that is criminal is another question. | 2016-07-06T15:46:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47137 |
| There has never been a high profile case like this prosecuted. | 2016-07-06T15:45:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/06/about-those-e-mails/#comment-47136 |
| Very true. | 2016-07-04T16:45:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/04/fly-the-flag-4/#comment-47121 |
| Thank you! I am a bit sheepish about re-using old posts, but I really like this one. It's at the core of what I believe. | 2016-07-04T16:45:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/04/fly-the-flag-4/#comment-47120 |
| Thank you! It means a lot to me. | 2016-07-04T16:45:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/04/fly-the-flag-4/#comment-47118 |
| A belated Happy Canada Day to you! I always like how your nation gradually agreed your way to independence. So very Canadian (also shown in how you still argue about it - politely yet pointedly! :-) ) | 2016-07-04T16:44:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/04/fly-the-flag-4/#comment-47117 |
| You have to keep your eyes open and really dig for truth. :-) | 2016-07-02T19:55:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/01/the-star-spangled-banner/#comment-47108 |
| Correlation does not imply causality. :-) | 2016-07-02T19:51:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/01/the-star-spangled-banner/#comment-47106 |
| Thanks! I thought I should do something a little different for the holiday. | 2016-07-02T19:51:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/01/the-star-spangled-banner/#comment-47105 |
| Great addition! I have to say I like it much better as a poem than as a song - it's far too hard to sing IMHO. | 2016-07-02T19:50:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/07/01/the-star-spangled-banner/#comment-47104 |
| Yes. But investment is all about risk management, and when we don't have things in a neat little box people tend to see nothing but risk everywhere - and sit on their money. | 2016-06-30T01:44:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/29/big-ideas-fall-apart/#comment-47090 |
| I haven't exactly reached what I would call a "conclusion" yet. | 2016-06-29T16:29:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/29/big-ideas-fall-apart/#comment-47086 |
| That is indeed the problem. On the face of it there is no need for government to screw around with this. Then again, that would clearly result in chaos. | 2016-06-29T16:29:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/29/big-ideas-fall-apart/#comment-47085 |
| Absolutely! You've been a big help getting me down this path, and thank you. My concern about Sanders' people is more that they are susceptible to big ideas at times. That's OK, but if we learned one thing from the last few hundred years it's that small ideas, people, lead the way to truly successful revolutions. | 2016-06-29T01:58:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/29/big-ideas-fall-apart/#comment-47079 |
| Probably not stupid, but I don't understand their position at all, no. | 2016-06-28T17:47:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/27/brexit-blowup/#comment-47062 |
| It really was a surprise to just about everyone. Very strange, actually. | 2016-06-28T14:58:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/27/brexit-blowup/#comment-47059 |
| Indeed, it could. | 2016-06-27T16:23:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/27/brexit-blowup/#comment-47050 |
| Thank you! The EU is terribly flawed, but leaving is very different from fixing it. That's the real problem. They still need an EU. | 2016-06-27T16:23:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/27/brexit-blowup/#comment-47049 |
| It's a mess, all around. This will take a long time to sort out. Just finishing my next piece on it. I say all bets are off until the dust settles. | 2016-06-26T21:43:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47036 |
| There does have to be some "order" to the world, yes. You or I may not like the first pass at it, but retreating back into a lack of order whilst at the same time we are indeed living much closer together is quite dangerous. We have reason to be worried by all this. |
2016-06-24T21:52:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47022 |
| I was going off of some of the talk that was part of this election. Leaving aside the refugee / immigration crisis, which I think has been talked about at great length in response to what it meant to the election, it seemed that we had two main arguments. One was that none of the arrangements in place now work for the workingman, and the other was that the EU was essentially Germany. Those two contrast nicely. Common Market history is indeed fascinating and, as I have written in the past, the EU is absolutely necessary for many, many reasons. The UK decision was horrible. The EU is flawed, yes, but some kind of economic union is essential and some kind of political common policy, if not union, is also essential. One would think that would be obvious by now. It wasn't. |
2016-06-24T21:51:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47021 |
| Don't forget a Northern Irish referendum on joining the Republic. That may be in the works as well. | 2016-06-24T17:29:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47014 |
| No. They have to re-align and where they wind up is anyone's guess. My first thought is that the US as a "safe harbor" has just become the destination of choice for all money all around the world. But we're not putting it to good use here, so the returns aren't as good as they could be. This won't help risk aversion one bit, either, and that is a real root problem. So how will it all re-align? Hard to say. |
2016-06-24T17:05:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47011 |
| It could be. Let's watch the fallout and see what the message is. | 2016-06-24T17:03:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47010 |
| I'm taking a step back. I do think that if there was a good balance and the economy worked for everyone we wouldn't be here today. By "here" I mean all of us in this ugly place we are in. I'm looking for a root cause of all this unrest, which is indeed global. Well, it's not anywhere near as bad in Germany - for some good reasons, I think. | 2016-06-24T17:03:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47009 |
| There is no way to look at this without seeing a big mistake. The EU certainly over-stepped itself with political union - before it got the rest of its house in order. I'll give the "leave" crowd that. But the basic concept of moving closer together is a reality. People all over the world are fighting it, but they can't. The next generation doesn't support this nativism and it will eventually move at its own pace towards a more unified world. But how? What will it look like? How will it make a world which is resilient and provides real opportunities for all? How will it be open and free? Dunno. All we know is that the EU model is being forced to retrace its steps. And the UK has to go back to figuring out what it means to be "post-imperial". |
2016-06-24T17:01:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47007 |
| It's bad, all around. It's less about the UK as much as a general failure of the EU. | 2016-06-24T16:54:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-47004 |
| I'd love your thoughts, too - maybe as this settles out. I just see a fundamental power imbalance that prevents the EU from being anything more than a mush. Without the UK it seems really lost. | 2016-06-24T03:41:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/24/about-this-eu-thing/#comment-46996 |
| Which of the two is a practicing Christian? Only Clinton. http://www.christianpost.com/news/6-interesting-facts-about-hillary-clintons-christian-faith-138314/ | 2016-06-22T17:40:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46982 |
| They did create the monster, and they do have an obligation to stop it. Like Dr. Frankenstein. But will they? We'll see. | 2016-06-22T17:39:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46981 |
| The odds are at least long, so it probably won't happen. But remember that we have another finance report and the Judge's decision in Cohen v Trump yet to come. | 2016-06-22T17:38:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46980 |
| I think they may just. Odds are still long, but not impossible. | 2016-06-22T16:27:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46978 |
| Who do I think is more sincere and has the American people in their heart first? Clinton, by a very, very wide margin. There is absolutely no contest on that standard. |
2016-06-22T16:26:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46977 |
| My contention has always been that he is a fraud. I think that is about to be proved. We'll see. | 2016-06-22T02:31:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46965 |
| I have spoken to a lot of Trump supporters and had some very good, respectful conversations. What it seems to come down to is that the people in power are either incredibly corrupt or they have no idea what they are doing (readers of this site know I'm really sure it's mostly the latter). Either way, Trump fans want someone from the outside with experience making things happen to come in and try something new. And that is a very reasonable instinct, if you ask me. My entire problem is that Trump is deeply flawed as a person - and I am quite convinced that he is not a successful business man but is instead a VERY successful professional celebrity. In other words, a complete fraud. So I do understand why people back someone like Trump - although I still believe that at the very top experience does count and the place to put in new blood is in the House and Senate. But I'll leave that all aside. There is a place for good business people, IMHO. They are the ones who can make social legislation and safety nets actually work. We need people like that engaged in the process if you ask me. Just not at the very top, unless they've proved themselves. And never Trump - he's much more like Kim Kardashian (sp?) than, say, Warren Buffet. |
2016-06-22T02:23:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46963 |
| First of all, thank you for a level-headed reply to what is probably my nastiest post ever. You're a better person than I am on this one. And you do have a point - he has ALWAYS defied the odds. I do not see him possibly elected, however. The odds are way against him. With no money it's just worse. |
2016-06-22T01:08:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/22/dump-trump/#comment-46960 |
| By all means, and this is something more interesting than what is going on here. It does look like Brexit will fail, but we will see! | 2016-06-21T15:43:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/17/brexit-turns-violent/#comment-46955 |
| We aren't really set up for more than two parties, but we do need more open discussion of what's wrong. In any other democratic society there are outlets for more voices. Will the Libertarians hit prime time? Maybe they will this time! | 2016-06-21T03:55:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46954 |
| Several points here. First of all, I don't understand how VC funds operate, to be honest, and there are none that I can see which are truly "public" and trackable. So there is a limit to how much money can possibly go into any given fund. Second, most target very small businesses. I cannot find good information all around, but this article has some that suggests that larger funds are coming into play, which will spread risk around. http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/06/micro-venture-capital-funds-growth/ I didn't use this article for this piece because it really doesn't have much to say about the total amount of money coming into VC as a trend, but it does show that it favors smaller operations. |
2016-06-20T15:40:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/20/risk-aversion/#comment-46949 |
| I completely agree, but the rest of the world does not. We have to go with sentiment and figure out what it will take to change it. I see risk aversion as a major problem right now - and a big contributor to the "skills gap" among other issues. | 2016-06-20T15:12:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/20/risk-aversion/#comment-46945 |
| The thing is that in order to make it work, we we have to understand it. How, indeed, do we get money into the hands of people who are going to fuel the new economy in the way everyone talks about - technology and innovation driven stuff? And what safety net is appropriate? How do we protect a "flexible" workforce that works from one contract to the next? How do we guarantee such workers an income that will keep them going? There are a LOT of questions, but if you start from the perspective of "we have a new economy forming" they are all very hard to answer. |
2016-06-20T14:34:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/20/risk-aversion/#comment-46942 |
| Yes, the whole economy is re-making itself. It is largely a question of who benefits - how the economy is made. But we don't need a "revolution" - it's already started. | 2016-06-20T14:20:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/20/risk-aversion/#comment-46940 |
| Indeed. | 2016-06-17T17:38:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/17/brexit-turns-violent/#comment-46924 |
| Yes, indeed. | 2016-06-17T17:09:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/17/brexit-turns-violent/#comment-46921 |
| I think you hit something important, sister. Very important. | 2016-06-17T17:09:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/17/brexit-turns-violent/#comment-46920 |
| Because only 15 states are sane? Keep in mind that I am being a bit conservative here - it's well known that many of the guns in some of these states - IL, MA, especially DC - come from other states. A more universal law would even cut gun deaths in those states. | 2016-06-15T19:00:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/15/common-sense-gun-laws/#comment-46909 |
| I agree. This is not that, however, but just a start. | 2016-06-15T17:24:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/15/common-sense-gun-laws/#comment-46906 |
| Thank you. I'm looking for common ground that bridges the political divide here. That's where I think we have to start. | 2016-06-15T17:24:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/15/common-sense-gun-laws/#comment-46905 |
| Thank you. And yes, I have my ideas and political thoughts on all this - but in the middle of grief is just not the time. | 2016-06-14T14:33:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46899 |
| Amen. | 2016-06-13T21:11:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46893 |
| Thank you. | 2016-06-13T18:09:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46889 |
| Thank you. My readers are much better than I am. All I ask is for a good conversation - and alla y'all come through beautifully. | 2016-06-13T16:29:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46887 |
| Indeed. But I think we can all get through eventually. It's not about our opinion, it's about one voice made of many. We have a ways to go. | 2016-06-13T16:19:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46884 |
| It is so long it will kill the thread. If I can find a way to pin it to the bottom I will. Thank you. | 2016-06-13T16:18:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46883 |
| Absolutely. You have a very powerful angle here that I am only now starting to think through. This is very important. Thank you. | 2016-06-13T15:04:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46878 |
| My response is weak. Normally, I would wait to say something stronger but I felt as though I could not avoid this. Consider this post nothing more than a series of sobs from a fetal position in the corner, if you want. We have to start from the place I describe here, I am sure. Is it enough to take us out to solve the problem, to get past the violence? No. This is not a course of action, it is a statement of principles. I have written many times on the need for simple respect and decency, but that always flies of the situation at 30,000 feet. Yet that is where we have to come from. They are also a form of love - a cool acceptance of the value of all human life. It is a love all the same. It is also just a start. We must not allow outrage to propel us, that's all I know. While I am outraged by this shooting it cannot be the only response I have. There must be another way. We must all find another way. As I think of more I will try to say something more intelligent - something with a stronger plan of action in it, as you have. Thank you for your words - you are indeed spot on. When we have the strength that comes from some time from which a resolve is built we can go forward and put an end to this endless cycle of outrage and hate. I do appreciate what you say here very much. For now, I find myself huddled in the corner in a fetal position. I am focusing on the only thing that can possibly help me build more resolve to do something about this. That's not action, not yet. We do need action before more people die. |
2016-06-13T15:03:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46877 |
| It is the conversation that is important. There is so much wrong with our world that we have to stop and take note of it all. The bizzy machine has to stop whirling for a moment and we have to ask, "What is it we really want? What will make us happy?" | 2016-06-13T14:55:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46876 |
| I went with the rant. I really felt like I couldn't avoid it for this one - the killing just keeps getting more and more. | 2016-06-13T14:03:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46872 |
| We are failing in mental health issues every way we can, from putting as much stress on people as possible to a health system that is both terrible at maintenance / promoting health as well as not including universal access to anything. If you take this angle, the failures stack up quickly. | 2016-06-13T14:02:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/13/constant-outrage/#comment-46871 |
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJEwrw4VEls | 2016-06-10T20:51:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46854 |
| Thank you for the explanation. To a Yankee like me mentioning Santa Anna as a kind of patron saint to Tejanos seems vaguely racist. But having come from a multi-cultural place (Miami) I do understand that people always "go there" and it's just a way of laughing off the tensions and getting along. So, yeah, if it's a Texas thing and all Texans make jokes about it we're all cool. Just keep in mind that those of us not from your nation, er, state aren't always sure what to make of it. :-) |
2016-06-10T20:38:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46853 |
| You know, that is her greatest strength - being underestimated constantly. It's part of what makes her so tough - a man with her gravitas would not be messed with all the time. She has to stay sharp all the time. Do you remember my piece on women in power through history and how many of them were truly great leaders? This may be why. They never, ever let their guard down. They couldn't. Angela Merkel is very much the same way. She is Clinton with a German accent. There may be something great to this analysis. Thank you! :-) |
2016-06-10T15:56:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46851 |
| I agree all around - it's way better to be mobile and strike just about anywhere that you have a chance. Even a feint to test the line, especially early on, is good. I think we will see that Clinton is ahead once the Democrats get their act together. Polls from around next week should reflect unity, at least in part. That will tell us where we really stand. Totally agree on "prevent defense". I have seen a lot of good teams lose games they shouldn't have with that crap. Clinton knows this, too, but probably not from football. :-) |
2016-06-10T15:51:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46849 |
| No, but they might rise up for themselves. Trump made this awfully personal. I really don't know why Latinos don't vote, but my guess is that there isn't anything in the system that speaks to them. Wendy Davis couldn't rally them, but that doesn't seem surprising. I think you are asking a good question, and there does have to be more to it than Clinton. Not-Trump is a good start, but is it really enough? |
2016-06-10T14:53:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46847 |
| Pancho Villa, maybe? :-) | 2016-06-10T14:13:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46845 |
| What's all this about Santa Anna? People are hatin' on Texas here. :-) | 2016-06-10T14:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46844 |
| Remember, he had only one real leg, so he would have to be careful about losing his ass, too. | 2016-06-10T14:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/10/turning-texas-blue/#comment-46843 |
| I will address the Texas phenom in more detail in a new post. In the meantime, here is my electoral map: | 2016-06-09T19:45:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46837 |
| Thank you very much! | 2016-06-08T22:53:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/08/finding-good/#comment-46832 |
| Yes, more reasons to hate ______ (someone) | 2016-06-08T22:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/08/finding-good/#comment-46831 |
| That's my job! :-) | 2016-06-08T22:10:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/08/finding-good/#comment-46828 |
| Indeed, we just have to find it! | 2016-06-08T22:10:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/08/finding-good/#comment-46827 |
| This will be ugly, but there is always a chance we can have some discussion about the future of this nation in and among the noise. | 2016-06-06T17:32:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46804 |
| That seems to be a big part of the strategy for both campaigns. Trump will keep talking to the press, which will probably do him more damage than anything else now that the press is on to him. | 2016-06-06T17:32:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46803 |
| Yes, all around! I think there is a fine line between responding to him and engaging him. What she just did was to spank him, essentially, which keeps her above the fray. Surrogates can do the heavier lifting. A constant barrage of "fraud" is the key, however. | 2016-06-06T17:31:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46802 |
| It may not change this election, but a voter registration drive targeting a million people is still a good idea. Texans are dissatisfied with where things are going - economically, socially, and now the flooding. Plus, Trump will indeed scare Latinos to the polls. It's worth fighting for a lot of reasons. | 2016-06-06T14:45:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/06/the-campaign-ahead/#comment-46798 |
| Thanks! | 2016-06-03T22:12:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/03/everything-counts-2/#comment-46776 |
| A Jesuit tradition, I think. :-) | 2016-06-03T22:12:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/03/everything-counts-2/#comment-46775 |
| How wonderful! Yes, he is like that as well as the profound stuff. :-) | 2016-06-03T22:11:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/03/everything-counts-2/#comment-46774 |
| Also, I want to make it clear here - this is about perspective more than anything else. It only touches on the problems and does nothing to provide solutions. Simply noting that business cycles are real, that income inequality accelerates in downturns, and that different policies are required during those times is pretty big for the IMF itself to admit. As I concluded, and others here are saying, it's far from enough. But it's a start. | 2016-06-01T17:58:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/#comment-46760 |
| Fair enough. As I said in the end, it's a start, but only that. | 2016-06-01T17:53:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/#comment-46759 |
| Not really. This article is getting at one of the roots of income inequality, which is business cycles. A steady economy produces less inequality than one that goes up and down all the time. The very wealthy can make money at both ends, the poor suffer in the downturns terribly. Debt cycles have a lot to do with trying to survive the downturns. So I'm sorry that I didn't make that clear in the article, but we're talking about one of the things that the IMF researchers and I agree on, which is that business cycles are a big part of the problem. We're actually both concerned with income inequality and as for austerity I thought I addressed that directly as a big load of crap. What is important here is that IMF researchers are challenging the IMF methodology, which includes austerity. I've long supported this position and I am glad they have come around to this thinking. |
2016-06-01T17:49:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/#comment-46757 |
| Short answer: yes. Long answer - it's completely revolutionary because most modern economics starts with the assumption that the desire of policy is to produce smooth, steady growth. If you accept that this is not natural, or even possible, everything has to change. Further, it implies that the correct policy at any given moment is not dictated by ideology but by situational analysis - which is to say that a good economic policy is more like being an auto mechanic than an academic. You can see how this would rub a lot of people with fancy degrees the wrong way. There is no "one way". Reagan's emphasis on supply-side was the right thing to do in 1980 but it's exactly the wrong thing right now. And even when it was the right thing I can make the case that they oversold it then, too. No one in academia or in central banks likes this way of thinking, but it seems to be quite reasonable. The reason I emphasize this Depression is that it does require a completely new understanding of economic policy that is neither Neoliberal nor Socialist. |
2016-06-01T15:36:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/06/01/neoliberalism-oversold-yes/#comment-46754 |
| So sorry to hear that he passed without telling you more. That generation did indeed just do without whining. We miss them terribly as a society. | 2016-05-30T20:02:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/30/leadership-d-day/#comment-46732 |
| There is a bigger message here - we don't have anything to whine about, and even if we did whining wouldn't solve a damned thing. Leadership is what makes the difference whenever things get tough. Whether it's leading and inspiring others or just steeling yourself, it's really about leadership to get the job done. That's what we need more of. |
2016-05-30T15:21:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/30/leadership-d-day/#comment-46730 |
| Thank you so much, I am glad to have touched you. I would have loved to have met your Dad as I love meeting all veterans. Their stories need to be told because we are asked so little in our own lives. | 2016-05-30T15:12:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/30/leadership-d-day/#comment-46728 |
| Thank you! And by all means, it's a great honor to be reblogged! | 2016-05-30T01:59:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/30/leadership-d-day/#comment-46724 |
| Thank you! | 2016-05-28T05:49:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/27/memorial-day-4/#comment-46715 |
| I will run it every year. We need more of the peace they have in Oakland - especially for the living. | 2016-05-28T05:49:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/27/memorial-day-4/#comment-46714 |
| It is a beautiful place, and worth spending a lot of time in. \ |
2016-05-28T05:48:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/27/memorial-day-4/#comment-46713 |
| That would be our big advantage, yes. But how do you demonstrate THAT on a resume, eh? The system doesn't seem to be able to screen for things like common sense - or value them at all. | 2016-05-25T16:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/25/automation-for-people/#comment-46690 |
| That is a good point! I hope there are still jobs for front-line customer service reps, though. Far too much of that is being automated (badly). "Push 1 to hear yourself scream, Push 2 to hear instructions in Bengali ..." |
2016-05-25T16:30:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/25/automation-for-people/#comment-46689 |
| :-) Touche! |
2016-05-23T21:51:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/23/national-identity/#comment-46675 |
| That's pretty much where I am coming from, yes. But there are a lot of questions about who we are as a people which need to be answered. There's no reason we can't work through that if everyone stays calm, of course. It's almost as if people refuse to be calm. Again, this is all about bad leadership. The bathroom bill, to use your example, didn't come from nowhere. Someone in a position of leadership thought this was a good idea. |
2016-05-23T15:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/23/national-identity/#comment-46673 |
| Thank you very much. | 2016-05-23T15:14:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/23/national-identity/#comment-46671 |
| Fantastic quote, and very true! That is the part of our mythology we need to keep, for sure. I'm thinking about what is true and useful in our mythology and what is not. |
2016-05-23T15:13:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/23/national-identity/#comment-46670 |
| Thank you! I have always though that any gun regulation should center on precisely what the military sees as the critical component - training. I have no problem with people who know what they are doing owning and carrying arms. I also see nothing wrong with encouraging this, either. But I don't know how even this approach would pass the test implied by Heller - that it is a fundamental right akin to free speech. Yes, criminals will always find a way to have guns, for sure. I think far too much emphasis is placed on the weapon and nowhere near enough on the person who is carrying it. I do believe that if you use a gun in the commission of a crime the penalties should be severe - again, it's an emphasis on the person, not the weapon. |
2016-05-23T01:47:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46665 |
| That has been my feeling. The DNC chair hasn't helped, but letting this burn out really only makes Sanders' side look terrible. | 2016-05-20T20:12:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46654 |
| That does seem to be what's happening, yes. And it's not good for anyone. | 2016-05-20T20:05:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46652 |
| Proportional delegates have kept this race alive a lot longer than it would otherwise, yes. That's the main reason I get angry when I hear all this "It's rigged!" talk. Yeesh. |
2016-05-20T17:16:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46650 |
| I worry about the same thing. There are a series of "facts" which are not true that have been believed by the Sanders camp simply because they have been repeated often. | 2016-05-20T14:02:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46647 |
| I hope and pray it was a totally isolated incident. That would be good for us all. Let's see what happens when it gets to New Jersey. :-) |
2016-05-20T01:27:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46642 |
| Thanks, Josh. I'm just dismayed at all this. I honestly think the stakes couldn't be much lower for so much fuss, and no one was paying attention to what the downside might be. I know, I'm a Clinton supporter. But I'm all for Sanders going to the convention, and I'm all for him raising a fuss. He should get a lot of representation in the platform, for sure. But this ... this does no one any good. It doesn't help him or the cause, and it certainly doesn't help Clinton. Bleck. |
2016-05-20T00:43:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/20/eyes-on-the-prize-2/#comment-46640 |
| I can only imagine how strange it looks. I don't understand it entirely myself. | 2016-05-19T19:50:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46635 |
| Indeed. I don't think many people know of this, either. | 2016-05-19T00:08:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46629 |
| The Supreme court should be a very large issue in this campaign. Which is in and of itself rather sad, but it's the way it is. | 2016-05-18T20:24:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46627 |
| That was always my read, too, but with Heller the fundamental individual right is the law of the land. It was not before. | 2016-05-18T14:55:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46621 |
| No, they are not. I would like some sensible things to regulate people, however. If nothing else they should know how to use these things that will be with us. | 2016-05-18T14:54:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46620 |
| A good point - guns got ahead of our ability to understand them - what they are for, what they can do, et cetera. Hardly the only thing in that category, but one of the most lethal. | 2016-05-18T14:54:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/18/gun-rights/#comment-46619 |
| Dodd-Frank gave up some ground, but the Democrats controlled Congress at that time (2010). It wasn't really a compromise at all - it's very comprehensive and generally does just what it is supposed to. Where it is lacking is in the non-bank area, and I think that Frank would be one of the first to acknowledge that this is a shortcoming. But in terms of banks it seems that the very worst is covered, at least. | 2016-05-16T18:22:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/16/break-big-banks/#comment-46600 |
| That's probably true all around. It sure sounds good - it's all their fault and now we must punish them. | 2016-05-16T18:20:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/16/break-big-banks/#comment-46599 |
| No bank in the US is big enough to even come close to triggering anti-trust laws. If they do cooperate in something like a trust they will be in serious trouble - but they tend to be much more competitive than that. | 2016-05-16T02:13:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/16/break-big-banks/#comment-46593 |
| Exactly, that's my point. We do have a problem, yes. It's a lot better than it was after Dodd-Frank and the Volker Rule but it's still there. And breaking up banks is not going to help it one bit. | 2016-05-16T02:12:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/16/break-big-banks/#comment-46592 |
| Good point. It is about 1%, which is why this would take the headline unemployment from 5% to 4%. That may not seem like a lot, but it is a big deal if you are one of the million-plus people. | 2016-05-13T16:32:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/13/reinventing-the-labor-market/#comment-46576 |
| I wish it were that easy. I can't tell you how many applications I've filled out over the last few months. Companies want a very precise fit - and you better not look "overqualified" because they fear you'll ask for too much money. | 2016-05-13T14:51:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/13/reinventing-the-labor-market/#comment-46574 |
| Perhaps I did. But budgets are very tight and there isn't much room for trying someone out if they can't grow quickly into the position, no matter how smart they are. Then again, with the number of contract workers out there employers can do a "trial run" with a person rather than sit around and wait for the perfect person with a lot of skills and a low desire for pay. So I do see your point. But companies are slow to hire for a lot of reasons today and this is just one of them. |
2016-05-13T14:50:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/13/reinventing-the-labor-market/#comment-46573 |
| Over the long haul that does seem like the best solution. Certification is part of the process and having someone who has not only taken classes but can demonstrate the skills would be of benefit to everyone. A union, or if we have to use a euphemism Guild, would be the most appropriate way to do this for sure. But it will take a long time to set this up. | 2016-05-13T02:18:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/13/reinventing-the-labor-market/#comment-46567 |
| I think 8% is about as low as anyone can go - it's almost what you'd expect entirely by accident. Yes, he's a total fraud. People support him because they are convinced everyone else are total frauds - which honestly I don't get at all. Then again, the Republicans have been saying very wrong things for a long time so perhaps many people are just used to it - or cannot figure out what is true on their own anymore. | 2016-05-11T15:08:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/11/buncombe/#comment-46556 |
| In a world where half of the people think Obama and Clinton always lie and the other half think they always tell the truth, it's a bit closer to 50/50. :-) Seriously, they rarely tell outright lies - but Trump most certainly does. It's a big difference. | 2016-05-11T13:24:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/11/buncombe/#comment-46552 |
| Well, that would make sense, yes. :-) | 2016-05-11T13:23:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/11/buncombe/#comment-46551 |
| Thank you! And sorry that the comments section is periodically messed up. I don't understand it, myself. Things seem to mysteriously break and then fix themselves. | 2016-05-11T13:22:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/11/buncombe/#comment-46550 |
| That may actually be true. I am thinking about this and the "skills gap". Back at ya later. | 2016-05-10T22:48:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/09/job-growth-crashes/#comment-46539 |
| Well, yes, if there is indeed a "skills gap". That would be a serious situation all around, but there is evidence that we have a skills gap of about 1.4M people. My gut says that is real which is to say headline U3 unemployment would be about 4.1% today, which is pretty close to full employment. https://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/ | 2016-05-09T15:58:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/09/job-growth-crashes/#comment-46518 |
| Thank you! | 2016-05-06T21:42:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46487 |
| Amen! But it does appear that the electorate isn't doing a good job of thinking sometimes. My faith in it is being tested. | 2016-05-06T21:42:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46486 |
| But is anger going to get us anywhere good? Back to Invisible Mikey's comment at the top .... | 2016-05-06T15:38:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46482 |
| So what should we be angry at? Everything? I was thinking about the end of Centrism as a political force of any kind, given that in a time like this there's just no space for it. But how do we focus on what we should be legitimately angry at so we can change it? | 2016-05-06T15:37:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46481 |
| Jealousy, class resentment, things like that. I can see that to some extent, but we also still revere rich people. A good share of Trump's support is among people who think he's very smart and very capable. I'll accept that last part for sure - there is more than racism. But class and race often go together in this country, or at least get so mixed up it's hard to tell what's going on. Thanks! |
2016-05-06T15:36:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46480 |
| Wow. That's really good. We should have TV ads along those lines - seriously. Just ask people to get ahold of themselves and THINK for a moment. | 2016-05-06T15:34:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/06/angry/#comment-46479 |
| You raise an excellent point, and I will see if I can figure out how people get to the Xcel Center. I made a huge assumption that the vast majority came in cars and that may not be correct. In my defense I was only looking at the pedestrian traffic, but as we consider them we should know where they are going. | 2016-05-05T03:11:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46467 |
| Quick response - we are looking into all of these as a team including a tunnel as I mentioned in this piece. | 2016-05-05T02:40:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46464 |
| I agree all around. However, shifting cars to Shepard may be hard for an important reason. This may be more local traffic that wants to be on Seventh. We need to learn a lot more about it, but in principle I agree. Do we need a streetcar? At $50M per mile it's hard to justify, if you ask me. But I would gladly support an improved bus service, especially West of Randolph where there is no local bus now, and see how that goes. |
2016-05-04T21:08:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46462 |
| First point - the chart I have shows 24k cars per day, and that was verified by the City. MnDOT was OK with the 3 lane conversion up to the point where it hit 20k cars per day, which I think was unfortunate. I'm sure it would work all the way. As for lane width, I do not support a 10' lane anywhere that there are trucks. If we were to go with that, we would have to lose the MN Highway 5 designation - not necessarily a bad thing, but a big thing. It may be necessary. As for parking - businesses really demand it. Period. I want to get to the heart of this because I see a need for ramps tucked behind and under buildings even with no changes to Seventh - would that be enough? My gut says yes, the businesses say no. It's worth talking about. As for Shepard, yes. All around. That may want to be Highway 5, for example. My only problem with your design is that we really do need a very wide sidewalk. I will never support less than 12' anywhere, and around here I tell you 20' would not be ridiculous. The current 13' or so is barely manageable. But |
2016-05-04T21:06:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46461 |
| I suppose it should! I was thinking about the Xcel crowd, hence the need for cars. They all get in their cars at some point. But a real Pedestrian Paradise would probably just have trains. Not really a nitpick! | 2016-05-04T21:00:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/04/visions-for-west-seventh/#comment-46460 |
| It represents the worst in us and offers a question as to how we will adapt to a deeply impersonal world. | 2016-05-02T19:14:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/02/age-of-anxiety-2/#comment-46440 |
| Yes. A lot of people have seen all this coming. | 2016-05-02T19:13:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/05/02/age-of-anxiety-2/#comment-46439 |
| I'm more interested in his tactics, which were both new and old. Some of it worked very well, but at a high cost. | 2016-04-29T18:28:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/29/the-big-rally/#comment-46418 |
| Well, my intent was to highlight what appears to be a trend - one that is difficult at best. Is Sanders "revolutionary"? We will see if he and his followers spark something in the next few years. |
2016-04-29T18:27:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/29/the-big-rally/#comment-46417 |
| I think that's ultimately the lesson. He paid a lot for consultants that he shouldn't have, and actually ran a really high-buck campaign all around. The rallies were just part of the very expensive roll. For comparison - Trump has only spent $50M, Clinton $150M. I would recommend caution when trying to replicate the Sanders model, for sure. It's not for a real "insurgent". |
2016-04-29T15:06:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/29/the-big-rally/#comment-46414 |
| Isn't it strange? I don't understand how we got here, either. | 2016-04-27T20:36:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/27/boundaries/#comment-46402 |
| Far too much, yes. | 2016-04-27T20:35:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/27/boundaries/#comment-46401 |
| It is an old problem by now, but thinking about Prince compelled me to write on the source of his strength. | 2016-04-27T20:35:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/27/boundaries/#comment-46400 |
| Thank you. Fascinating, no? People need to know about the goodness in the world. We hear far too much about anger and sorrow. | 2016-04-25T20:00:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/25/prince/#comment-46386 |
| You are most welcome. To spread the word of great people like Prince is to spread the peace! | 2016-04-25T20:00:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/25/prince/#comment-46385 |
| I take it you were not a big fan of his music, too. That's where I was coming from. I liked him a lot as a person. Van Jones said that we should stop writing about his music and write about him as a person. Out of respect for both men - good, Christian men - I did that. Prince will be missed for a lot of reasons. |
2016-04-25T15:19:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/25/prince/#comment-46379 |
| It would help. You may not be a typical voter but people feel they have to be able to related to the President. Would you have a beer with Obama? I sure would, and Clinton, too! And Sanders, for that matter. But I'm a bit weird. Would I like to have a beer with Cruz or Trump? Fuggedaboudit. Kasich, sure. :-) |
2016-04-22T19:43:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46363 |
| I don't know if they can stop him. If they do it may be worse, depending on who they nominated. My dream is a contested convention where Ted Cruz comes out on top. All Hell would break loose. | 2016-04-22T19:41:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46362 |
| This was "in the can" when the announcement of his death came. I'm also still not sure what to say. | 2016-04-22T02:52:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46354 |
| Thank you! | 2016-04-22T02:51:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46353 |
| Don't be shy to promote your piece - it's good. And an excellent counter to me on the same subject: https://myfridayblog.wordpress.com/2016/04/21/how-to-unite-the-democrats/ Ending superdelegates would be a really easy thing for her to support, for example - so she should. I like what you have here and I know it's from the heart. We need to listen to voices like yours now. Also, I agree on Warren. Would be bold and very interesting. |
2016-04-22T02:51:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/22/still-not-over/#comment-46352 |
| They don't want the US Dollar to rise - but it hasn't been rising very fast lately. I also think they should be raising - it brings more money into the economy than anything else right now as Chinese money comes our way. Keep in mind that the "Chinese Money" is really money that went over there when we lowered rates in the first place. It found the best investment it could - and in 2010 that wasn't here. |
2016-04-20T15:37:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/20/spatters-of-dragon-blood/#comment-46338 |
| It appears to be so. We have to take that into account when we pass any laws, policies, etc. | 2016-04-20T15:09:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/20/spatters-of-dragon-blood/#comment-46336 |
| About 10 years ago. :-) Seriously, these numbers are ridiculous. For example, Jesus walked the earth less than a million days ago. A trillion hours ago? Dinosaurs ruled the earth. In fact, if the earth is really 4.5 billion years old or so, there have been only 1.5 trillion days total on this planet. |
2016-04-20T15:06:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/20/spatters-of-dragon-blood/#comment-46335 |
| Exactly. The economy is not dynamic enough for it to flow into good investments / jobs / etc. Not yet, anyway. | 2016-04-20T15:04:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/20/spatters-of-dragon-blood/#comment-46334 |
| Wow! Lotta hating going on! :-) Seriously, I think there are a lot of people who see this as you do. I do wonder if we can at least put the brakes on this stuff. | 2016-04-18T23:28:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46325 |
| Maybe. At least people are returning to cities! | 2016-04-18T23:26:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46324 |
| That is definitely part of the problem. The cost of labor is also probably a problem, too, since construction is very labor dependent. It's worth looking at more closely as to what's really going on if we're all convinced there is a quality issue. | 2016-04-18T21:26:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46321 |
| Thanks. I do worry about the quality as much as the scale of things. | 2016-04-18T13:52:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46317 |
| That has been my main concern all along - quality. Buildings of quality usually find a re-use, unless they are very specific. But without quality we're definitely building the slums of tomorrow today. |
2016-04-18T13:45:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/18/a-durable-city/#comment-46315 |
| Yes, indeed. Resiliency is very important, which we are just not building into our systems. | 2016-04-15T19:18:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46308 |
| "In the long run we're all dead." | 2016-04-15T15:21:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46302 |
| You would think, right. That is a good point - they are trying to destroy it and it just keeps holding value. It's kind of strange. But a lot of this is "What would you rather hold, Yen or Yuan?" They win that one. | 2016-04-15T15:21:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46301 |
| I have to answer that with a link: https://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/ There will always be growth, matched to population growth and productivity increases. But some of that growth should probably be taken out as less work. We may well have outgrown the 40 hour work-week - we may need to make 32 the standard. My solution is to let the length of the workweek be subject to market forces, too. If people can make enough to live in 32 hours they probably will. That's a terrible punt and I know it. But I don't know any other way to make this work. |
2016-04-15T15:05:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46298 |
| So where is the place for pieces like this full of an awful lot of detail? What about things like my half-hour long discussions at a taproom? Some of this stuff you really can't push together in less time or fewer words. Some of it I have to refine and maybe can get down to a sound-bite the length of "We'll build a wall!". You're asking damned good questions. I count on you and other readers to help me answer this and think it all through. Thanks so much for being in on it all! |
2016-04-15T15:01:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46297 |
| No, you're not the problem! You're asking a lot of questions and setting yourself up with a good BS detector to evaluate the responses. Yes, energy is not created or destroyed. And all this stuff that litters our lives comes from somewhere. But it all provides jobs to people. Having the whole economy change over in so many ways is really, really complicated. It really tests this thing called "Democracy". Hell, it tests "Civilization". :-) |
2016-04-15T04:22:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46291 |
| Why do we keep doing the same things? Well, aren't things changing enough as it is? It used to be you could depend on stuff to be a certain way - and a lot of people are depending on them. To just say "Screw you guys, I'm going home" and go off into the woods in a tiny house may make sense to people with nothing to lose, but most people have something they'd be giving up. They don't want to give that up. And if we throw everything out, what about stuff like Social Security and Medicare? Plus the other parts of this system that genuinely keep people alive? So .... we can't just throw out everything. Or maybe you can, so go for it. But most people can't or just won't for a lot of reasons. |
2016-04-15T04:20:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46290 |
| Well, perhaps you don't have to worry about the details. The short version is, "We have a lot to learn from Japan." The long answer, here, is "We can learn some things from them, but we already did some things right." Let's keep it simple - the challenge to the whole world right now is to reform and modernize society from the ground up. We look at the economic pieces and sometimes the social pieces and see them as different. They aren't. We also look at the challenges to developed nations and developing nations as different. In some ways they are the same - reform at all levels is absolutely required. Now, step back a moment and look at the conservative (small "c") movements that are fighting change. They exist all over the world, and for a good reason - people everywhere are waking up in nations they don't recognize. That experience is a little different from one place to the next, but the emotional response is very similar. Japan is failing for a lot of reasons. We're not thriving for some similar reasons. China? Hard to say just where it's going, but they aren't exactly failing nor are they thriving in the way they'd like. Is any of this sustainable? Short answer: No. Not a bit. There's just not enough paying work to go around as we all automate and experience productivity increases. No amount of monetary policy will change that, either - and that's the tool of choice. It may help but it won't solve the problems. Japan shows that failure all over the place. We can learn from that. |
2016-04-15T03:50:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46286 |
| A good point. But see the next comment on sustainability. :-) Can they maintain it? | 2016-04-15T03:33:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/15/japan-down-the-rabbit-hole/#comment-46285 |
| Amen! | 2016-04-13T14:15:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/13/the-case-for-pragmatism/#comment-46275 |
| Amen! | 2016-04-12T16:28:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46271 |
| Yes, that was the original impetus - and it's still a good idea. I think that 0.2% is not something that will hurt anyone but it will raise a LOT of money. Since we don't seem to want to go back to corporate tax rates of the 1960s (when they were nearly double what they are today!) this would make a good substitute that also has a good side effect. | 2016-04-12T16:23:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46269 |
| It doesn't usually explain everything as well as it does other places. It does, however, explain far more than I am comfortable with - and to that extent we should be battling. But the system demands consensus, not warfare. | 2016-04-11T14:55:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46258 |
| I do agree, Republicans are frustrated, too. Will it really change with Clinton as President? I both think it has to and then see no reason why it will. Perhaps a Democratic Senate will improve things, but there is still the fillibuster rule. | 2016-04-11T14:55:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46257 |
| Thank you! (but why the sigh?) | 2016-04-11T03:25:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46250 |
| Right under "Thank you for sharing", after the article .... it should work. | 2016-04-11T03:24:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/11/the-1-try-the-31/#comment-46249 |
| Troll. | 2016-04-10T03:12:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46231 |
| That would be filed under "other" | 2016-04-08T23:27:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46211 |
| That's where I go. I see no reason why corporate taxes need to have more exemptions or credits. | 2016-04-08T14:06:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46204 |
| I do think we have a lot in place for that, so I don't see that a complete overhaul or change is necessary. | 2016-04-08T14:05:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46203 |
| Thank you! I doubt there will be any interesting Americans on the list. There are too many easier ways for us to launder money here. We don't have to resort to international shell companies since we can set them up on our own. Usually it's only really dirty money that goes this route from here, which is to say drugs / sex trade / etc. |
2016-04-08T05:07:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46196 |
| I don't see anything happening until we have a change on the Supreme Court. First things first. I picked battles that I think are winnable, even if some are a bit of a stretch. | 2016-04-08T04:51:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46194 |
| Investments in infrastructure are far more important than defense unless we are actually at war. We aren't, and we spend far more than anyone else. I think it's completely justified to divert this money back home, yes. | 2016-04-08T04:50:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/08/the-next-economy-an-8-point-plan/#comment-46193 |
| A very good point! Certainly, it's easier today to hide money in some ways - but it's also easier to find it. Do we simply know about it more? I think you may be right. Let me look into how I can quantify this, if I can. | 2016-04-06T22:47:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46151 |
| Today? Yes, it's kinda routine. :-) | 2016-04-06T22:30:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46149 |
| Yes, well, this is what happens when the whole world becomes very small very quickly. Between culture clashes and new ways to hide assets it's the new world (lack of) order. | 2016-04-06T22:30:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46148 |
| Of course. This is just the big playahs. | 2016-04-06T17:37:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46140 |
| A world government that has the ability to tighten this up doesn't have to be a dictatorship. But yes, this will continue without a global effort. And it will be ugly. | 2016-04-06T17:37:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46139 |
| Thank you! | 2016-04-06T17:36:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46138 |
| This is an international problem, with the US actors not really involved. We won't have the fodder we need for a good discussion on it. But Europe is lighting up over this, especially with a lot of details on Russia. | 2016-04-06T17:36:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/06/todays-pirates-the-panama-papers/#comment-46137 |
| Exactly. It's a "siege mentality" that doesn't do anyone any good. When the flashing lights arrive on the scene everyone - citizens and police alike - fear for their lives. Nothing good can possibly result. | 2016-04-04T16:26:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46090 |
| Yes. There are many places the system could go wrong, and the most important is probably training. Are the police getting the training they need in de-escalation techniques? I doubt it. But you raise the point that they may be getting training in exactly the wrong things, which I also fear is a contributor. We can't allow that. We have to insist on better. | 2016-04-04T16:20:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46088 |
| Excellent all around. Thank you. | 2016-04-04T15:47:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46085 |
| So let's make it something other than a "war zone" ... like maybe a community that is a good place to live in a well functioning city, perhaps? | 2016-04-04T15:16:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46082 |
| Your point about non-lethal force is well taken. I don't understand this, either. I have seen people very incapacitated by pepper spray (tasers seem like a bit much to me) so why is it not used more often? I don't think there is any acceptable reason why Jamar Clark died. There had to be alternatives. |
2016-04-04T15:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46080 |
| I do believe that our police are, generally, way over-worked and under-paid. That's not an excuse for this but I do think if we want the highest possible standards we have to set things up for that to happen. This includes the best people and the best training, but it also includes proper representation from the community they are policing and support services for the community so that problems don't get out of hand. This is a systemic problem and there is just not going to be one solution that cures it all. | 2016-04-04T15:11:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46079 |
| Thank you very much. I'm trying to turn the (justifiable) outrage into action here, so I hope I've added something to the discussion. | 2016-04-04T15:09:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/04/outrage/#comment-46078 |
| How about Romeo & Juliet - two kids who know each other for about a week leave a trail of death. | 2016-04-02T00:53:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/01/on-wisconsin/#comment-46032 |
| I go with America first. Seriously. Trump might be great for our party but I really don't care. | 2016-04-02T00:52:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/01/on-wisconsin/#comment-46031 |
| Absolutely! | 2016-04-01T15:19:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/01/on-wisconsin/#comment-46019 |
| I don't think that younger people are ever going to go for a "Make American Great AGAIN" theme. They want a reboot, not a return. They don't have experience with a nation that ever worked well. | 2016-04-01T15:18:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/04/01/on-wisconsin/#comment-46018 |
| I will look into that. The US Dollar is increasing very rapidly again, which is indeed a problem for everyone. | 2016-03-30T22:50:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45988 |
| Yes, pretty much. | 2016-03-30T22:50:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45987 |
| It doesn't actually make sense, so not understanding it is a good thing. :-) | 2016-03-30T21:19:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45984 |
| I completely agree. I don't think the underlying weakness is a large concern. What they are going by, however, seems to be the lack of inflation - which is largely true. | 2016-03-30T21:18:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45983 |
| I am against this much signaling, yes, but Yellen wants a more open Fed. I think this will take my projection for a medium term drop in the 10yr bond, which we should otherwise end soon, to a longer-term drop stable below 2% net yield. It's currently 1.75-1.90% and it looks like it will stay there now. I don't see much upward pressure but we should look for downward pressure as money comes to the US from overseas. | 2016-03-30T15:48:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/30/fed-futzes-fuses-financial-fracas/#comment-45973 |
| Oh, yes, indeed! Sanders does have a point and it needs to be made much more often. Spending nearly $700B a year on the Department of Defense alone, about $900B with all related State Department and Homeland Security issues, comes to about $7000 per household. That's a ton of money no matter how you look at it. | 2016-03-28T21:05:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/28/a-smaller-government-is-a-peaceful-government/#comment-45939 |
| Thanks! | 2016-03-28T21:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/28/a-smaller-government-is-a-peaceful-government/#comment-45938 |
| That's about it, yes. War is much more expensive than the social programs people fret about, which naturally makes me wonder about the opposition to the social programs - and gets back to the post last week on racism as a major driving force for all political discussion. | 2016-03-28T21:03:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/28/a-smaller-government-is-a-peaceful-government/#comment-45937 |
| That's what you get for being a voice of sanity and reason! :-) Thoughtful people don't get the attention they deserve on the 'net, but there are a lot of readers who don't necessarily speak up. Hang in there! I'm glad you're here and speaking up! | 2016-03-25T16:32:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45870 |
| Good question. It seems pretty simple, yes? | 2016-03-25T16:31:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45869 |
| There is a lot wrong. I think Paul Ryan's confession gets to the heart of the matter pretty quickly. Of course, I'll want to see him back that up. But at the very least he's recognized that you can't just say "no" to everything indefinitely and not expect a serious backlash. It's more pragmatic than moral. | 2016-03-25T15:28:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45866 |
| Thanks! That's what I'm here for. :-) | 2016-03-25T15:27:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45865 |
| Not so fast - there's still a lot of work to do to fix things. But we do know just what's wrong, and that's something. | 2016-03-25T15:26:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/25/how-the-system-works/#comment-45864 |
| Thanks! | 2016-03-24T17:57:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/23/coopertition-2/#comment-45845 |
| I think it has always been this way but we didn't talk about it like this. There is always a collaborative element in how technology advances, even if it starts as mere copying what someone else did and then improving it. | 2016-03-23T19:28:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/23/coopertition-2/#comment-45831 |
| I am sure that tribalism, which is the root of racism, is common to all people everywhere. But this is the US and we have been living together for generations. We have gotten over our racist fears of Irish, Swedish, Italians, et cetera. Blacks? The system has so much racism built into it. We simply have to get past it one way or the other. | 2016-03-23T14:16:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45827 |
| By all means, reblog away, and thank you very much! | 2016-03-22T22:57:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45816 |
| I agree that "political correctness" is not a good thing - people have to be able to speak their minds. But we also have to be more respectful in general. That goes both ways, sure, but it's better for everyone when things are out in the open. The Trump rallies, for example, show everyone just who he is and who is backing him - that's better than a bunch of coded language, which is how it was done in the past. | 2016-03-21T17:37:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45794 |
| White people don't experience it, so we don't really understand what a poison it is. But it does affect everything - and that is the real problem. We can't talk about a single issue without it getting racist in some way. | 2016-03-21T17:36:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45793 |
| For each group, except African-Americans, it does get better gradually. But the deep racism has a poison that affects everyone. | 2016-03-21T17:35:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45792 |
| So here we are - which came first, the racism or the nonsense about "those people"? I'm pretty sure the racism came first, but they do reinforce each other. | 2016-03-21T13:51:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45785 |
| Yes, it is. But if you think about it this is entirely to be expected. Keep in mind that these rallies have a few thousand people at them, at most. And that Trump is polling less than half of the 24% or so who identify as Republican, which is to say 1 in 8 people overall. And they tend to be older. I do feel that this kind of backlash is understandable and needs to be confronted calmly and rationally. We know that his supporters are being fed a series of lies that they believe because they want to. That such a small number of people believe them is actually heartening, given the discourse we have in this nation. But we have to confront this calmly and reasonably. They are not people who are going to simply go away. |
2016-03-21T03:27:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/21/racism/#comment-45781 |
| You have an excellent point and have a very good leading indicator. I hope the blip downward at the end is reversed. You are right, we have not hit our stride yet. I'll accept this as a measure of when we are ready to enter a period of expansion. Excellent find! |
2016-03-21T02:21:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45779 |
| And as long as there is more demand for US Dollars out there we will have a deficit. It goes up with increased global trade, which is probably part of the reason that free trade has always been presumed to be good for the US - we've always like having a strong greenback. But I happen to think that we would probably benefit more by having a weak currency, assuming energy independence, because it would keep our good competitive. Every other nation thinks this is true, why don't we? So we may not always have a trade deficit if China gets its way and the Dollar isn't the global reserve currency for 85% of all transactions anymore. Why on earth China supports this, however, is something I'll never quite understand. They play the currency war as well as anyone else - except when they are playing the global superpower game. |
2016-03-19T03:38:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45750 |
| Probably not. Look at how we're still arguing over NAFTA 25 years after it was passed. There isn't a good way to measure the effects of these trade deals that is universally accepted. Personally, I like the methodology of the IIE, which matches the number of jobs related to export / import before the treaty was passed and then looks at how trade expanded. In the case of Mexico, our net imports from Mexico expanded slightly after NAFTA and our exports expanded a lot more - meaning we had a net gain. But, then again, Mexico tends to export lower value goods to us and I'm not entirely sure how it was all taken into account. Bottom line - these will always be up for interpretation one way or the other. What I am sure of is that the standard analysis, based on "We lost a lot of manufacturing jobs in the 2000s" is not valid. Many other things were happening that are summed up as "productivity increases". That seems to be the real issue we have yet to grapple with - not trade. |
2016-03-18T16:38:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45743 |
| That is pretty much what I'm thinking. I would have to re-read TPP to see how it stacks up in this view, but offhand it seems like a pretty standard open agreement without a lot of calls for worker advancement et cetera. No matter what nothing is going anywhere for a while, though, so it's a totally academic question IMHO. |
2016-03-18T15:27:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45740 |
| For the first question, it depends on what you mean by anti-American, but my guess is that in the biggest sense there aren't that many. Politicians want to create jobs in their district first and foremost. Raising money? It's important, but they do want to create jobs. As for the second part it really depends on what you think is improper. Transparency is the key to everything - keeping an eye on everything that is done. The internet age lets us do that much better but there is a ton of garbage out there clogging the information stream. |
2016-03-18T15:03:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45736 |
| But it's probably not the most important thing that has gone wrong lately. No new trade deals plus an increased focus on what we know is wrong would be good. | 2016-03-18T03:01:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45729 |
| That's true - extended supply chains have changed the mix. That could be blamed on trade agreements. But it also is an effect that will at least slow in the future as it also worked its way through the system. | 2016-03-18T02:04:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/18/trade-deals-bad-deals/#comment-45725 |
| Ranked Choice Voting would be a good addition, actually. Something to think about, yes. | 2016-03-17T16:48:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45713 |
| Wow, that got long ... you hit something I have no good ideas about but feel is very important. | 2016-03-16T21:24:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45705 |
| Little was said about any anti-Mormon backlash in 2012, but I have trouble believing it wasn't an issue. I do wonder how many evangelicals left the top spot on the ballot blank. Since there is drop-off below that where people don't vote it doesn't look like any, but I agree that had to be an issue for some. The "Big Tent" parties are based on an idea that appears to be antique at this point - which is difficult. Our whole system is based on the idea that our politics can be compressed into two parties. A strong president form of government simply does not allow for a large number of parties - but that does seem to be where we are going. Things are fractured in politics as they are everywhere. I honestly don't know the answer but I do agree - the "party within a party" tendency is at least going to be a serious change. Centrist or even Rockefeller Republicans? Well, I don't know where you can go today. Rubio never seemed to have a chance - but I would have bet that in November he would play well. That's really pathetic. Sanders? One solid round of red-baiting and he would fold up quickly in a system that requires 50%. I really don't know about the long term for politics. What I do know is that taking things in 2016 sets up the 2020 redistricting and if I'm right at all, even a little, about things starting to move forward whoever is in power from this election will get a lot of credit and be in power for a long time. Thanks to Trump the Democrats should have a great claim to power - I swear he even puts the House into play. It's huge. |
2016-03-16T21:23:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45704 |
| Thanks! Context is everything today - very few outlets make a point of finding it and I do believe that is what is most important today. "I don't break news, I fix it!" :-) | 2016-03-16T20:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45701 |
| He's a good guy, just what I would think anyone would want in government regardless of whether you agree with him or not. | 2016-03-16T20:16:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45699 |
| Thanks! | 2016-03-16T18:10:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45695 |
| Yes, if it sounds too (stupid, ridiculous, bad, crazy) to be true it probably is. Caveat Lector, let the reader beware. Common sense still works - if only most of the writers out there had some! | 2016-03-16T15:48:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/16/original-source/#comment-45690 |
| Nothing good can come of this. | 2016-03-16T15:47:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45689 |
| It is about the nation at some point, yes. | 2016-03-14T04:16:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45646 |
| I have to watch all of her show - I've only seen some - and I do agree. Every smart, concerned person has to be committed to turning down the noise at this point. Cold, hard facts and a quiet objectivity are indeed the way to go. Maddow has shown this, Kelly showed this, and I think a few others will as well. Time for the adults to step up. We will see what, if anything, Republicans have to offer this process. The disrespect for Obama is another thing. I would like to see some hardcore focus group work on this. It can't be playing well, can it? If it is, why is it? |
2016-03-14T03:22:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45642 |
| I do feel this can only get worse at this point. Last week I thought the media, through Megyn Kelly's hard work, had found a way to deal with the guy. Then he found a way to amp it all up. Not good. | 2016-03-14T03:20:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45641 |
| It's worth noting that at the end of the 1968 campaign, and I think 1968 can be taken almost as one single event in many horrible ways, the population wound up voting for the most establishment candidate running. All the noise eventually pointed us to Nixon, of all people. Can Clinton seize the situation the way he did, promising law and order? I doubt it, but that may be the direction she turns once she secures the nomination - which is to say if the polls next Tuesday are right and she winds up dominating the large states and swing states that are up for grabs. Then again, this is all getting so crazy it's really hard to tell what will happen. Is there any genuine establishment leadership? Is law and order a viable platform in all this? It's only likely to get crazier. We know that the conventions, both of them, have the potential to be real carnivals - possibly carnivals of violence. I do not in any way blame Sanders but there is a heavy "smash the system" contingent that is supporting him. They will not go quietly into the night. |
2016-03-14T03:18:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/14/it-gets-serious/#comment-45640 |
| Next Tuesday we'll know for sure. If the polls are at all right (and I'm really not sure right now) it will be a huge sweep for Clinton. The gap will go from 200 to 450+. | 2016-03-11T17:36:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45606 |
| The Republican Party may actually be your best friend, then. :-) | 2016-03-11T16:55:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45604 |
| I've written about a lot of that before! It is a critical part of our world - not understanding half of what's going on around us. It's why people get so angry all the time, IMHO. | 2016-03-11T16:54:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45603 |
| It's all good - I ramble a bit too, ya know. :-) The Two Party System is really strange, if you think about it at all. A national "primary" would make a lot of sense. But this all involves some major changes in the Constitution that most sane people don't want to get into right now. How do we get good people into office? It's hard. They have to care about the party enough to move it in their direction, and that's a terribly "corrupting" process no matter what. It changes people - mostly making them a lot more cynical. Then again, real political skill is a good thing, IMHO, and teaching that can only improve the process. There is a lot to think about. Our strong executive bothers me at the core, for one, and I would love to have a "cabinet government" as I outlined some time ago with a broad array of elected executives. That would be more interesting and more open. A lot to think about here. |
2016-03-11T03:58:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45595 |
| You have a good point - there may be more problems. The short answer is that we can't really trust the polls. What we do know is that they have consistently under-estimated Sanders' support. Are they hitting up cell phones and/or reaching young people and traditional non-voters adequately? What models are being used to estimate likely voters? Are they asking people if they plan to vote, for example? You are right, there are probably other problems deep in these polls. The fact that the results among self-identified Democrats was about right from the poll-of-polls in Michigan tells me that the main bias came from the open primary. But it would be crazy to say that this is the only effect, yes. |
2016-03-11T03:53:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/11/definitely-not-over/#comment-45594 |
| Absolutely. That's what transit projects are all about anymore - not actually moving people but "spurring development". That sounds great if you're the rider but tough if you're the horse. And we're the horse. Existing neighborhoods were built the way they were for a reason, and the strongest ones have a good visual appeal. They may be off a little in the best density possible, but the passage of time has proven them to be the most viable generally. It's what works. |
2016-03-10T17:32:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45586 |
| I am afraid we don't regulate the right things in the right way. Urban farming is really hard under current zoning - why? Why is mixed use so hard to put in? Granted, no one wants a factory plopped down next to them - or a huge sports bar. But aside from those uses, aren't there a lot of things like a dentist's office that would be OK? New buildings are all pretty green, so that is a trend for sure. I feel that this trend will only continue. But attached space is always greener in many ways, and density encourages transit. It's a question of the right density for stability in my opinion. |
2016-03-10T16:39:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45584 |
| That is my main concern, yes. They are applying formula development to a changing landscape and it may not be best. I could be very wrong, but I think it's worth thinking through and talking about. | 2016-03-10T16:36:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45583 |
| You're right - there has to be some need for these units. I see a lot of young Millenials in them and I fear that they will "outgrow" such units, but there are older people in them, too. It may work. No one is building condos now - the burn from 2008 is still hot. Some of these can convert if the market comes back, and many are being built so that this is reasonable. We will see. It's not that I think these units do not belong here, it's a question of scale. There are so many going in! I hope we're not over-doing it. And I think that flexible space is going to serve us a lot better, is all. |
2016-03-10T16:35:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45582 |
| It has in recent years, for sure. But we are seeing a lot of market-rate unsubsidized development going in to both cities lately, which is to say that they aren't extracting money from the system. That heartens me greatly. I think there is a need for a good zoning code, but I don't think we have it yet. When we got TN zoning along Seventh, legalizing the standard build of the last 150 years, I was greatly heartened and there seems to be good movement to the right things for the street. But ... the scale! Jeez. So much of it is so big. That's not good. But the era of big subsidy is mainly over and the less we look to large office towers the better IMHO. |
2016-03-09T15:51:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45562 |
| We're the same age, so we'll see what we make it to see. :-) I do think that buildings ultimately reflect the values of a society, so as our values and arrangements change we will see changes. I'm just trying to predict what they might look like, and my conclusion is that there are a lot of buildings that will be functionally obsolete if we keep changing as rapidly as we are. | 2016-03-09T15:48:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45561 |
| It doesn't necessarily regulate what is important in terms of noxious uses near residents, etc. | 2016-03-09T15:46:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45560 |
| Thanks. I haven't done anything partially baked or philosophical in a while, but this has been on my mind. At the Fort Road Federation we've had a lot of minor zoning variances for apartments come through and after a time I had to ask myself, "Is this really what the city is going to look like? Or should look like?" And it dawned on me that no, it probably won't and no, it probably shouldn't. | 2016-03-09T04:27:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/09/flexible-cities/#comment-45553 |
| Thanks! But this was an easy one to make, I think. Why is the headline U-3 unemployment not dropping? It's usually because more workers are coming into the labor force, which is to say that the fudge is pretty thick. U-6, the only unemployment that is consistent and reasonable IMHO, dropped to 9.7% as I predicted. But again that was easy once you have a +230k or so gain for the month. |
2016-03-04T19:24:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/04/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear/#comment-45503 |
| That is the key. I do expect the coming worker shortage to help. | 2016-03-04T18:41:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/04/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear/#comment-45500 |
| I'm an American - that appears to be a job for foreigners. | 2016-03-04T06:13:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/04/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear/#comment-45491 |
| Good plan! | 2016-03-04T04:03:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/04/the-only-thing-we-have-to-fear/#comment-45487 |
| “Nixon had the unique ability to make his enemies seem honorable, and we developed a keen sense of fraternity. Some of my best friends have hated Nixon all their lives. My mother hates Nixon, my son hates Nixon, I hate Nixon, and this hatred has brought us together.” HST, 1994 |
2016-03-04T03:22:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45484 |
| Probably. Just wait until these kids are older - either they change their tune or this nation is goin' socialist. :-) |
2016-03-03T17:41:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45472 |
| I think a lot of people will agree with you on that. Republicans included. | 2016-03-03T17:40:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45471 |
| Sanders seems tired. He is experienced and he knows where this is going. He'll keep fighting but we can expect this to be more focused on defeating Trump and the issues he cares about. Clinton will do that, too. It is essentially over, yes, but it will be up to Michigan and Ohio to really seal it. |
2016-03-03T17:40:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45470 |
| The Republicans need to pull this together one way or the other. Cruz is worse for them than Trump if you ask me. | 2016-03-03T17:39:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45469 |
| Sorry for the comment delays - I see things were broken yesterday. It's fixed now. If you tried to post and were frustrated please let me know. | 2016-03-03T17:38:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45468 |
| A lot of Republicans are more comfortable with Clinton than they let on. Wall Street sure is. I do think that Trump cannot get more than about 40% absolute top in a general election, probably more like 25%. | 2016-03-02T15:02:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45455 |
| It's pretty funny, isn't it? But he's doing a good job of showing them what real leadership, at least intellectual / moral leadership, is all about. If only they had some appreciation for Clinton's abilities ... | 2016-03-02T06:09:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45452 |
| Sanders is a good guy. He knew what he was up against all along and is making his point as clearly as he can. He'll take what he can get and then stand very strong against the Republicans, who he knows are the real problem. I don't see any reason why the leaders of the party can't come together. The rank and file? It may not be so easy, but Bernie will lead the way. |
2016-03-02T06:09:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45451 |
| It is! The inside game is very much on as they work to bring it together. But apparently not quite yet! | 2016-03-02T06:07:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45450 |
| Warren is interesting - I would love to have a coffee with her. Kieth Ellison, Minneapolis Rep, endorsed Sanders. Franken endorsed Clinton. I think the rest sat it out. |
2016-03-02T06:07:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/03/02/7346/#comment-45449 |
| Yes, indeed! | 2016-03-01T17:38:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/29/54-counting-slowly/#comment-45436 |
| Sorry, I don't speak Italian! | 2016-03-01T17:38:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/29/54-counting-slowly/#comment-45435 |
| Thank you! | 2016-02-27T00:24:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45402 |
| I agree, but let's see how the establishment responds | 2016-02-27T00:24:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45401 |
| Excellent! This is a must-watch (warning - lots of bad language, but it has to be done that way!) | 2016-02-26T17:06:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45395 |
| I guess I did a bad job. This is a setup for what I do expect to come, which is an all-out assault on Trump. He has to scare the market movers before the resources to perform the operation will come in. That may be happening. Yes, I agree that it's late in coming. |
2016-02-26T16:50:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45393 |
| As long as it's with other people's money, yes. | 2016-02-26T16:22:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45391 |
| The question is how long this pause continues for - and how big of a correction does is cause. Two questions, really. | 2016-02-26T16:21:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45390 |
| Good link. This lines up with what I saw at Davos, which is that the highest level leadership is consistently calling for fairly radical change. | 2016-02-26T16:19:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45389 |
| His businesses went bankrupt four times. They are all independent operations, and he has many, so his side can claim they were inconsequential. I think it's very important. | 2016-02-26T03:32:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45378 |
| Well, sorry about that. I think the next one will be more to your liking - a busy life made me have to take a bit of a pause as I evaluate the array of progressive proposals and reactions to them - which I plan to work on over the weekend. Super Tuesday is really the name of the game right now. |
2016-02-26T03:31:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/26/scary-ol-populism/#comment-45377 |
| As for Trump spooking the markets, there are finally today a few decent articles on that. I may take on that topic. | 2016-02-25T15:13:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45369 |
| I'll let this ramble stand on its own. Thanks for it! | 2016-02-24T23:40:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45358 |
| Um, who or what are you talking about? | 2016-02-24T21:48:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45356 |
| That is the real reason, yes. | 2016-02-24T19:08:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45353 |
| That is very true. | 2016-02-24T18:44:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45350 |
| Yes, that's what I'm saying. And I expect spending on other things to indeed come around this year, as we've already seen over the holidays and in January. | 2016-02-24T18:43:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45349 |
| North Dakota has gone completely bust, too. It's not as bad in Texas and Oklahoma, since everything is more automated, but they are losing revenue. I think Alaska is really in trouble as well. | 2016-02-24T18:43:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/24/be-careful-what-you-measure/#comment-45348 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-22T19:02:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45320 |
| My pleasure! | 2016-02-22T19:02:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45319 |
| Yup. But I don't see them reversing themselves on a 4-4. | 2016-02-22T18:35:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45315 |
| That would complicate an already difficult situation, but I expect this might happen. I do think Apple is doing what they should be doing as a corporation, at least at this stage, but how far this should go is another question. Apple does have a responsibility to their shareholders, after all. | 2016-02-22T17:06:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45313 |
| I have mixed thoughts as well, but generally side with Apple. Overall, I think it is utterly fascinating and decided to write a piece that helped people understand the basics of this complicated case. Thanks! |
2016-02-22T17:05:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45312 |
| Two very good questions, more like it! Since all intellectual property is described and created by law, I see no reason why it can't be subject to eminent domain like anything else - which is to say along with "just compensation". I do not think that once assigned by the US Government (acting as the USPTO) it can be simply revoked. I will try to look for examples. As for obstruction of justice, I believe that would be the charge if they fail to comply, yes. There may be something more elaborate for corporations, however. |
2016-02-22T17:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/22/apple-and-the-good-fight/#comment-45311 |
| Ha! | 2016-02-21T22:25:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45299 |
| I'm so Gen-X I think everything will be better as soon as Boomers retire. Seriously, I do. I mean it. :-) |
2016-02-20T23:07:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45292 |
| What do we need a Federal Government for? I would say primarily for infrastructure, which we are way behind in. The system we have now short-changes it in so many ways, so I would say that this is a critical reform all around. The dividing line between what should be public and private could sort itself out a lot better if we understand the role and funding of infrastructure, if you ask me - along with some honest talk about what we spend on Defense. |
2016-02-20T23:06:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45291 |
| A good point. There is more interest in things like venture capital, too. All around I see investors going more with Warren Buffet's advice - invest in things you can see. But there are also investments in lifestyle more than just money. Resiliency is a good watchword all around. |
2016-02-20T16:40:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45287 |
| All in all, there's nothing wrong with America that can't be fixed by what is right with America. And the stock market isn't as important to the economy as people say, or even a reliable gauge of it. But it is important to investors, which is to say it winds up being important in the long run. So much of this is image and attitude. The deficit is both important and not important. Until we separate capital expenditures from ordinary expenses we'll never know how we really stand. How's that? |
2016-02-20T00:04:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45280 |
| So, you still haven't figured out that a Gen-Xer figures that everything gets better the year the Boomers retire, right? 'Cuz the easiest charge you can level is that I'm just a hater. :-) | 2016-02-19T23:28:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45277 |
| We're not that hard to get going, really. It's a question of what and why. | 2016-02-19T21:16:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45273 |
| Yes, absolutely. That's where the populism comes in, a totally apolitical political movement. A lot of Sanders' supporters are actually former Ron Paul supporters who just want to smash "the system". That's why I stressed getting involved, or at least speaking up, on very apolitical themes. Insisting that we do things well, with an emphasis on outcomes, would be more our style as a generation. Martin O'Malley should have caught on more, but didn't. |
2016-02-19T18:10:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/19/to-my-generation-gen-x/#comment-45270 |
| China may need to take a pause, but the march towards being a superpower is real. The Yuan should indeed be a reserve currency - but that means they need to give up their desire for complete control over it. They aren't going anywhere with this until they understand they can't have it both ways. But today's growth is still impressive no matter what. What has changed is only the perception of China. It was over-bought and everything got crazy, yes. It still has a primitive banking system and lacks a lot of key infrastructure. But they will get there. |
2016-02-19T00:30:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45264 |
| It does work out in the long run. It is a casino in the short run, for sure. | 2016-02-17T21:39:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45253 |
| Sure, let's go with that. :-) Seriously, it's become very hard to tell when effects are global and ripple through the domestic economy and when they are isolated. My best guess is that anything extra-national that really spooks the markets - currency valuations, foreign exchanges, etc. - has a longer term effect on us but little to nothing short term. Then again, if foreigners are buying long-term treasuries like mad our rates go down and there is an immediate effect. So it's really hard to tell. What I see coming off the China meltdown is really nothing but positive - unless the USD really gains value. But even that is probably a longer-term problem much more than a short one. And we have so few employed in manufacturing that the effects there aren't going to be large. |
2016-02-17T21:35:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45251 |
| This piece is not about my candidate or yours, per se, but about the struggle in the party right now. I think it's a real and important struggle which is long over-due. Most importantly, whoever wins the nomination has to be in a position where we unite and can march boldly forward towards actually getting something done. And yes, we have to stand for something important first - which is why we are having this struggle. I see both candidates as having flaws, which is only reasonable. We're human. The experiences they both have are important and inform the progressive movement in different ways. This letter is more to the supporters of each candidate, addressing the need for unity and a clear platform when this is all over. Clinton supporters often don't "get" what Sanders' people are all about, and Sanders supporters often don't "get" the need for experience in the consensus based system we have. We have to understand each other and be very clear. That will probably come from leadership as we close ranks going into the general, but you and I both know that the Democratic Party has always relied on grass-roots leadership if it's going to stand for anything. And that has to be listened to as well. I'm much more worried about the process for us coming together with a solid agenda that moves us all forward than I am with the result at this stage. I wanted to outline the arguments we're having so that we can move them all forward in constructive ways. Right now, the fight is a good one. It's long, long over-due. If we can keep it productive and respectful we'll not only win but actually start moving forward. |
2016-02-17T18:20:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-45245 |
| Thank you! I'll stay on it. Looking good so far. As long as it doesn't actually fall apart between now and the end of the year I think we'll be fine. | 2016-02-17T17:13:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45242 |
| Good luck to you, I'll check you out! | 2016-02-17T16:10:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45239 |
| If the S&P500 breaks the support, that will be a storm. But it has really met strong resistance. That tells me that the market is pausing, not contracting. It will take news to change this. Probably big news. There's always a chance of that - look at the mess Syria is becoming, after all. But things really aren't that bad. |
2016-02-17T03:56:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45232 |
| That's where I'm at. | 2016-02-17T03:54:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45231 |
| Any engineer will tell you the glass is twice its optimal size! Don't sit there breathing through your mouth and catching flies - get up and dance! |
2016-02-17T03:54:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/17/market-funk/#comment-45230 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-16T18:18:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45217 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-16T18:17:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45216 |
| Thank you! | 2016-02-16T18:17:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45215 |
| I may just. I've been on the board of the local district council for many years. | 2016-02-15T17:50:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45198 |
| Thanks. :-) | 2016-02-15T17:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45197 |
| Elections have to matter a lot more than they do, I think. I don't see any other way. | 2016-02-15T17:49:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45196 |
| Yes, that is true. But I fear that the laziness is compounding the problem. A bias to action would at least break the jamup. But those in charge, at least here in the US, are very far out of touch and do not care. |
2016-02-15T01:04:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/15/just-plain-lazy/#comment-45188 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-12T18:57:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/12/give-peace-a-chance/#comment-45164 |
| I think that is the main reason for all this talk, yes. It's a way that otherwise disgruntled and unruly people can be kept in line. The only reasonable alternative is empowerment. That's what we need in our politics. |
2016-02-12T18:57:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/12/give-peace-a-chance/#comment-45163 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-10T17:17:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/10/lift-every-voice-and-sing-2/#comment-45122 |
| It was an interesting time and place to grow up, yes? | 2016-02-10T17:17:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/10/lift-every-voice-and-sing-2/#comment-45121 |
| Very much so. | 2016-02-08T19:14:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/08/no-more-games/#comment-45076 |
| I might very well. If it doesn't end up a bit we will have breached the 1858 low on the S&P500. That's not good at all. The next support is 1814, from two years ago. | 2016-02-08T19:14:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/08/no-more-games/#comment-45075 |
| That is exactly how I feel. But part of the problem is that stock prices got ahead of themselves. It's all in the PE, and when P goes up there's trouble. | 2016-02-08T17:42:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/08/no-more-games/#comment-45070 |
| Ha! Well, my pick lost (I really like Cam Newton) so I guess not. :-) | 2016-02-08T03:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/08/no-more-games/#comment-45048 |
| Still trying, eh? | 2016-02-07T20:52:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-45027 |
| Thank you! | 2016-02-07T20:51:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-45026 |
| Pretty much. :-) | 2016-02-05T18:50:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-44982 |
| Thanks! | 2016-02-05T18:43:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-44980 |
| But it creates jobs! :-) | 2016-02-05T18:00:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-44977 |
| Thank you. Maybe we do need more fairy tales. :-) | 2016-02-05T16:09:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/05/crying-wolf/#comment-44975 |
| I am starting to think that way. There was a time when I thought Rubio really was allright, but we have to look at what he has to say to get through the Republican primaries. It's not at all good. | 2016-02-03T21:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/03/but-what-about-those-republicans/#comment-44943 |
| Almost, but not quite, as funny as the guy who came in second whining that Cruz cheated somehow. They are all losers. Seriously. |
2016-02-03T21:03:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/03/but-what-about-those-republicans/#comment-44942 |
| He's been groomed for this for his whole life. It's been interesting. | 2016-02-03T16:13:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44935 |
| Yeah, that guy. We all have to stop saying his name! | 2016-02-03T16:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/03/but-what-about-those-republicans/#comment-44934 |
| I try to be relatively impartial, though everyone knows my bias and can read my schtick accordingly. | 2016-02-03T16:12:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/03/but-what-about-those-republicans/#comment-44933 |
| No. | 2016-02-03T02:44:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44921 |
| Probably is about right, yes. Coin flips all around! | 2016-02-02T20:14:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44915 |
| The debate continues! Seriously, it's all good at this point. | 2016-02-02T20:10:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44913 |
| There are problem people everywhere. I do not think that the "Bernie Bros" and other intolerant people are anything but a tiny minority, but they sure are vocal. I'm really sick of them, too, and I don't consider their talk personally all that insulting or threatening. White people of privilege do bother me, however. We have a few like that on the Clinton side but they have a tendency to be much more quiet. We'll work this out. I do believe that all the Sanders people have a good point. |
2016-02-01T20:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44895 |
| Thank you! And I totally, 100% agree with you! I came into this thinking, "Eh, it's Clinton's". I am now looking to see how we have a dramatically improved Clinton for the challenge. That's a big win. The leadership and the push we need from the Sanders wing is not something that necessarily has to be in charge to be effective - but it has to stay engaged! It's a lot like FDR to me all around. The Progressives made him a better President - and they never, ever let up. That's what we need, IMHO. |
2016-02-01T04:53:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44883 |
| I'm also not a lot of fun at parties. Video coming soon, too. :-) | 2016-02-01T04:50:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/02/01/four-views-two-candidates/#comment-44882 |
| It was weird. Consumer spending is stronger than I thought, but industrial output really sank. A lot of that is oil production dropping to zip, but the strong dollar is not a good thing. | 2016-01-30T02:41:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44827 |
| That's allright, I'll come up with something else. :-) | 2016-01-29T20:57:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44819 |
| I hope it doesn't come to that (or look like that). | 2016-01-29T18:08:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44814 |
| I think you'll be happy with the result. But we never know until it happens. | 2016-01-29T16:41:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44811 |
| It is the young people's world, and I am sure they will make a good one when they get a chance. As for the last statement, well, I think this is about a lot more than just who we elect at the top - I still want a good manager first and foremost. | 2016-01-29T16:41:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44810 |
| It is strange. I admit it. Now that I'm used to the caucus system I like it because it encourages activism, not just voting. But yeah, it isn't very open at all. | 2016-01-29T16:40:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44809 |
| And that's what it means to be a real "progressive"! | 2016-01-29T16:39:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/29/fun-times-in-iowa/#comment-44808 |
| Not happening, sorry. :-) | 2016-01-28T18:11:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44784 |
| That is indeed why we love you. :-) | 2016-01-27T21:40:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44772 |
| Equities markets are kind of like petulant teens - if the Fed Chair doesn't give them enough attention they whine. Yellen doesn't care about them and they know it. Should she care more? My money is still on "no", but I can see where you'd have a different opinion. The out of sync nature of the whole world is indeed a problem. The developing world is also out of sync right now with a wide variety of different issues plaguing each of the BRICS. Nothing really makes sense. So there is indeed risk as money moves around so freely. There is little doubt in my mind that large-cap companies are going to feel some pain from China, yes. But what does that do to the rest of the US economy? Given that small and medium companies have been the drivers of growth since 2008 and the influx of a lot of new venture capital I'm frankly not all that concerned. I do see turnover, yes, but in terms of what benefits the US and its population I just don't see a lot of risk. When money comes back from China it will probably flow into a wide variety of things including safe real estate and maybe some more venture capital so what really is the downside? Will China have a hard landing? Soros thinks so. I'm more worried about the resulting political turmoil from that than anything economic. |
2016-01-27T21:04:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44770 |
| That would probably be best, yes. But it's hard to ignore a big downturn (which this isn't yet) and a change in momentum (which this isn't really yet either). What was my point? :-) | 2016-01-27T18:29:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44766 |
| I'd like to go back to the most recent Davos World Economic Forum, which I wrote about last week. The leaders of the world clearly "get it". They know that what we have is not sustainable and isn't going to carry us into the next wave - what they call the Fourth Industrial Revolution. So where is it all really going? They didn't have that many answers, frankly. A lot of good questions but that was all. What struck me is that they are trying. I don't know how much that counts but it was heartening to know. |
2016-01-27T16:02:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44763 |
| I feel obliged to learn more about China, but to be honest I've only recently run into people writing about how things really work there. It's utterly fascinating - it feels pre-industrial almost. It is worth putting that one together. How they got as far as they did with essentially no financial infrastructure is rather amazing. But it is all centrally planned, so the money follows the edicts. |
2016-01-27T15:59:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44762 |
| Yes, housing followed the bubble. There was a small retrenchment but the real bubble came 2004-2007. As for the World Economy ... you are right. 100%. There are walls between countries, but they are thin. People don't cross them easily but money and materials do. Supply chains don't change overnight, but they do move. I do not know exactly how to take into account the world economy versus ours. We are clearly doing much, much better than Japan and Europe for the Developed World prize, but the Developing World comes and goes. Mexico is doing well in part because we are, in part because the rest of the hemisphere is. So it's perfectly valid to say, "You haven't taken into account global transfers" or some such and you'll have a point. This is an issue that my read says even the Fed doesn't know what to do about. So yes, let's talk about that. |
2016-01-27T04:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44750 |
| OK, fair enough. But notice that we've reached the point where something is the "biggest since 2000" and not 2006? It's now the benchmark. |
2016-01-27T03:40:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44748 |
| Manufacturing is still a problem and will be as long as the Dollar is this strong - I will feed my troll this one. That's a potentially big problem. But it's such a small part of our economy now it matters much less than before. Where it hurts is in opportunity for young people that pays decent. | 2016-01-27T01:36:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44743 |
| I think it's good to have your own troll. It means you've gotten somewhere. We'll see if the Fed raises again this month, but I think there will be a pause. As for Yellen, well, I still believe her over you. So there. Oh, and those declining labor force participation rates? That's the secret, man, the real secret. They really area good thing. :-) |
2016-01-27T01:34:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44742 |
| Yes! And that is what is (slowly) happening (way too slowly, but yeah). It's why I see things coming back by the end of the year. | 2016-01-27T01:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/27/its-a-downer-kinda-thang/#comment-44739 |
| That's probably what will happen. | 2016-01-26T18:07:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44720 |
| It might be in some ways. But at least they would know who is in charge to complain to. They would also know up front more information that people care about - stops, schedules, etc. I imagine such an agency being more gradual about improvements - installing a bus line first and then as it grows in popularity proposing an upgrade. That would almost certainly be more popular than what is done now. |
2016-01-25T19:58:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44700 |
| Our system for creating transit here is indeed profoundly broken. It has to be the reason why a streetcar is listed at $50M per mile when everywhere else it has been installed at $25M per mile. And the Green Line at $100M per mile is inexcusable. | 2016-01-25T19:56:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44699 |
| It's all so terribly frustrating. Redesigning a city takes a much bigger effort than this - it's a commitment that has to stretch far beyond one project. Ultimately, when we talk redevelopment, it's about what kind of redevelopment and where. Big box apartments all along Seventh? No, I don't think so. To talk about redevelopment without a clear vision is suicide for a city, in my opinion. |
2016-01-25T18:08:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44695 |
| That is one problem, but I think the main problems are the cost of what we put in (usually double what they would be anywhere else) and the time it takes to get anything in place. Both of these are related to the ad hoc nature of the system we use for development. However, part of me doesn't want to speed anything up at all because bad decisions will be made. An agency that can make longer term decisions is needed first and foremost to me. |
2016-01-25T18:06:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44694 |
| Thank you! I didn't get into the cronyism which has been a feature because I want to fix the problem more than anything. I want accountability first and foremost. That will solve everything. | 2016-01-25T16:43:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44690 |
| Thanks, Kent. You've been on top of this all the way and you know what's going on. It's getting more than a little crazy. My point is that we can't just say "We need a project here" and put something down that will work effectively. We need a long-term commitment and accountability all the way through. The system we have just isn't designed for that. We have to get there somehow. |
2016-01-25T16:42:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/25/transit-in-the-twin-cities/#comment-44689 |
| Thanks! |
2016-01-24T19:56:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44668 |
| It's OK, we still have a system where nothing can possibly get done - unless it's obvious. Really obvious. :-) | 2016-01-22T17:47:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44644 |
| Two possibilities. One is that the problems are really hard, the other is that it will take a new generation that is not tied to the old to make progress by just throwing everything to the wind. I say it's a little of both. I don't want to throw everything out - but I think we'll wind up throwing out a lot. Maybe even some good stuff, but it's up to us older people to guide the process - probably not lead it, though. It's one of the things to watch as Clinton's full team comes into play and/or her opponent. Rubio is still very interesting when you think about things this way. |
2016-01-22T17:46:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44643 |
| Absolutely! It would be a great gig. | 2016-01-22T17:40:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44639 |
| That would be a stretch, but maybe some. This movement has been rolling through Europe - and the election of Ed Miliband as UK Labour leader was probably more of a watershed event. But that this movement, now quite global, resonated through the US with Sanders' followers is probably important, yes. I have to give him some credit. However, the threat of nativist reactionaries like Trump (or le Pen and Farage) is also causing the mainstream liberal left to take notice as well. The finance people clearly fear that as much as any other disaster. |
2016-01-22T17:03:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/22/skiing-the-digital-divide/#comment-44636 |
| No, I see that. I see us picking up while the emerging markets slow (but don't stop) their convergence. Globally there is a lot of good reason for concern. | 2016-01-22T16:02:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44634 |
| I think you're being hyperbolic. :-) |
2016-01-22T00:05:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44615 |
| It's good if it builds capacity we need, it's horrific if it builds capacity we don't need. | 2016-01-21T17:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44611 |
| A good point - I have heard that a lot. I also believe that sports teams are great places to launder money - huge cash flow in actual cash, paper losses all over, etc. | 2016-01-21T00:56:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44600 |
| A very, very good point. The idea that guns are the solution to everything I think only highlights how totally irresponsible and irrational we've become. I would think that a focus on safety and knowing what you are doing would calm this weird culture down some, but I may be wrong. It's strange at best, but really dangerous. | 2016-01-21T00:43:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44598 |
| I plead the fifth amendment. :-) | 2016-01-20T23:42:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44594 |
| Yes, this just seems like way too much all around. | 2016-01-20T23:41:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44593 |
| I'm not much into that. It is interesting, but I think other people have that nailed down way better than I ever could. | 2016-01-20T19:59:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44582 |
| Indeed, they are. | 2016-01-20T17:49:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44576 |
| Yes! It was the most important thing I found with this tool. Also, Arizona could go blue with the same voting pattern. That would be a big deal as well. | 2016-01-20T17:07:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44574 |
| That's what I feel, too - that they aren't proposing anything grounded in reality and are only whipping people up based on emotional issues. As much as I criticize Sanders, for example, I at least acknowledge the reality of what he's talking about. The Democrats have a solid corner on "real" issues this year, for better or worse, and I do think that the middle class people with a sense of reality will acknowledge that in time. |
2016-01-20T16:23:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44571 |
| The velocity of money is starting to turn around. That's one very good sign. | 2016-01-20T04:26:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44554 |
| Actually, WWII did not end the Depression - GDP had returned to 1928 levels by 1938. :-) But yes, the space for "conservatism" has been limited because the world has been changing rapidly. When that pace accelerated it increased the demand for leaders that would somehow slow the pace - something no one could possibly deliver on. They tried neo-conservatism and then a very based angry .... I don't know what this is right now, to be honest. Libertarianism is a kind of progressivism in that it describes how progress is made. It's not about keeping things the same at all. So as that has taken over the minds of young otherwise "conservatives" there is no place for a whole lot of what's going on. |
2016-01-20T03:53:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44552 |
| Thanks. But stay tuned for the 2017 that follows all the weirdness that will come this year. :-) | 2016-01-20T03:50:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44551 |
| Exactly. I was thinking of writing on this, but I honestly have no insight as to how it's happened. There is a need to pull the Democratic Party to something like a progressive position. I have a feeling that you and I would agree on about half to 2/3 of what that means, but the point is that someone has to stand for progress in this country. We have to move forward in this time of change. To me, that's all about a new generation taking more power - which I think is what we more or less should be betting on one way or the other in this election. |
2016-01-20T03:50:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/20/the-democrats-year/#comment-44550 |
| I could read some Thurber if you'd like ... (that's an obscure joke ...) |
2016-01-20T00:44:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44544 |
| Glad you liked it, then! | 2016-01-19T15:47:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44538 |
| Same here. I feel a little hesitant to be dogmatic about it, given that I was a white boy going through this. But I felt that in the end it was better for white people than black - like nearly everything. | 2016-01-19T01:51:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44526 |
| A lot are going this week. Tough week. | 2016-01-19T00:17:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44524 |
| I hope we can get over it. We have to at least try. | 2016-01-19T00:15:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44522 |
| I can appreciate that. I don't know that I would call this year "progress" as much as something that we can build on if we want to. If I'm right about a coming prosperity there may be a chance to actually make progress. 2015? No, not really. | 2016-01-18T19:12:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44517 |
| No, but some personal history. I was in the first class integrated by court order all the way from Kindergarten in Dade County, Florida (1983). I learned a lot as a kid about race. Integration was good for us white people - I don't know if it was as good for blacks, however, as it tended to break up the community. | 2016-01-18T16:35:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44515 |
| Racism is far from our sole problem, but as a nation with a lot of mixing it's certainly been more of an issue here. Our racism also flies directly in the face of our high ideals, which highlights the racism especially. It is a lot more than blacks, of course, but the constant and enduring struggle of Black America is a festering sore that never seems to heal. And that it's been with us forever makes it seem like it's just who we are. It can't be. We have to be better. |
2016-01-18T01:15:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/18/the-struggle-continues/#comment-44502 |
| Beyond cold. We is below zero! | 2016-01-17T01:04:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44472 |
| Or they blow it on "infrastructure" they don't need. |
2016-01-16T01:21:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44460 |
| Yes, there's always that possibility. :-) Seriously, it could be a big issue but I honestly doubt it. The worst thing I can see happening is general upheaval in China creating a massive refugee crisis. | 2016-01-15T21:17:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44453 |
| The size of this problem is huge - and its why comparisons to the collapse of Japan are difficult. But it still should go about the same way, which is to say a huge investment in America and at least 10 years of very good times. | 2016-01-15T21:16:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44452 |
| A very, very good point. We were right all along and should have seen this coming. | 2016-01-15T21:16:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44451 |
| Yes! Unless it gets a lot worse, which is always a possibility. :-) | 2016-01-15T16:48:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44444 |
| Yes. On the one hand, I don't see why US stocks are tanking on this because we really can only benefit. On the other hand, this is a huge change and no one knows what risk is really out there. So we have a short-term panic with the potential for a big longer-term gain. | 2016-01-15T16:24:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44442 |
| There is a lot going on around the world, but what matters is that the US is still fundamentally sound. That will come back into play after a bit. But this flight from China is a big event and it does represent risk all around. | 2016-01-15T15:39:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/15/the-dragon-bleeds/#comment-44440 |
| A good rebuttal to many of my points. I do honestly believe that Clinton is the most qualified and best person for the job, but I see why people to the left of me disagree. If you honestly think the most important issue today is income inequality than Bernie is definitely your candidate. I happen to think that with a few key reforms here and there the problem will work itself out very shortly. | 2016-01-15T03:31:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44430 |
| Good call on not watching teevee. It rots yer mind - except for cartoons, that is. :-) Yes, getting out of gridlock is what I think is the most important thing. I do believe that an active Congress will wind up engaging people, which is to say that nothing too stupid will happen. We need a lot of serious reform in many areas to set up the next economy! |
2016-01-15T03:29:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44429 |
| Thanks! | 2016-01-13T17:56:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/13/the-faith-of-bach/#comment-44399 |
| Yes! And when I feel him next to me, smiling, I know my friend is with me. The stories? Every piece is a different one, every piece is a moment or emotion that cannot be described any other way. | 2016-01-13T17:41:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/13/the-faith-of-bach/#comment-44397 |
| Yes, indeed. I am more of a fan of the Passion of St John for many reasons, but both are incredible. I am more of a Bach fan than I even let on here - I've spent my life studying his work. |
2016-01-13T00:47:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/13/the-faith-of-bach/#comment-44377 |
| It is. The principle is getting things done. Taking a stand isn't enough - there are people suffering out there. | 2016-01-12T16:02:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44368 |
| A good point. The office changes everyone so it might actually be interesting to see what happens. Well, maybe we'll see. :-) I am pretty sure we'll elect the Democrat, whoever that winds up being, so this could be a really wild year. |
2016-01-12T04:19:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44356 |
| We're at least thinking of the same problem - Congress. I think the Dems will retake the Senate, so I'm not too worried. But the House ... not likely to take that. Part of the reason I support Hillary is that I can imagine her and Paul Ryan making a deal to actually get something done. That may frighten you more, and I'd understand that, but there is so much that we obviously have to get done in the way of reform for the next generation and the next economy that I'm not too worried. But, no matter what, I want to see an energized and engaged progressive movement taking over the national dialogue. Nothing good will happen without that, no matter who we elect. I'll go as far as to say it almost doesn't matter who we elect without that. And, to make it clear, if Sanders does pull this off I'll happily support him and do what I can to be sure that Minnesota goes for him! |
2016-01-12T04:16:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44355 |
| No, I'll sellout. Pretty cheap, too - have a mortgage to pay. BTW, know anyone who might spring for a sponsorship? | 2016-01-12T04:12:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44354 |
| I hope so - FDR at least had a Congress on his side! :-) | 2016-01-11T23:32:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44344 |
| We'll take that. :-) | 2016-01-11T23:32:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44343 |
| I agree, it's risky at best. But I do think it's going to happen. There is a political earthquake in the works, so we'll see how that goes at the start of 2017. As for the turnaround, well, once we approach full employment you have to agree everything does change. And I do see that. So it's not so much about the cycles, which should NEVER happen like clockwork, but the underlying other changes. |
2016-01-11T23:32:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44342 |
| Sanders would have been much more interesting to me 8 years ago, yes. We need a leader for the Year Everything Changes and beyond. Keep up with my pet theories, will ya? :-) | 2016-01-11T20:15:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44332 |
| I agree all around, except there have been times I have thought Jeb! was OK as well (only a few). I'll eagerly vote for any of the Democrats. | 2016-01-11T20:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44331 |
| There is no doubt she has experienced that through her whole life. I think it's what made her strong. | 2016-01-11T20:13:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44330 |
| Clinton is a behind the scenes negotiator first and foremost, which shows in her public speaking. That is both her great strength and her biggest flaw, I say, and I think a strong cabinet that draws her out into the open will do her a world of good. Sanders' experience has been almost entirely legislative. He's good at that, and he is an important figure without any doubt. But I make a distinction between legislative and executive - I think Obama's weakness as an executive shows the difference clearly. If Sanders had been Governor of Vermont I genuinely would be much more excited about him. That may seem strange but it's really true. As an executive you have to do a lot more than talk, you have to make things happen and see them through. |
2016-01-11T20:12:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/11/the-case-for-clinton/#comment-44329 |
| Yes, in the end "value" and "values" are the same word. We have to seek the value we really want economically as well as socially. | 2016-01-08T19:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44244 |
| That's what I'm seeing, too. There are a lot of jobs out there. | 2016-01-08T19:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44243 |
| It is better today. But the 10yr remains low at 2.14% and I bet is heading lower. | 2016-01-08T19:03:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44242 |
| I think this is the wave of the future for a lot of reasons - your experience is probably the best one. | 2016-01-08T18:56:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44237 |
| I don't really know. I can tell you the unemployment rate for 20 year olds is much lower, in the range of 4.6%. | 2016-01-08T18:55:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44236 |
| There is upward pressure on wages and it will continue. Companies will try to keep salaries low where they can, but they can't anymore. So once the thinking starts to change we can only hope that companies will start looking at higher wages the way you do - we hire the best, we pay the best. |
2016-01-08T16:15:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44231 |
| We are in the same part of the Midwest, so there is a common culture. But the primary difference is this: In Minnesota, the definition of a "small town" is a crossroads with a gas station, a bar, and two churches. In Wisconsin, the definition of a "small town" is a crossroads with a gas station, a church, and two bars. |
2016-01-08T00:40:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/08/panic-or-laugh/#comment-44210 |
| I do agree that the real problem is a social one - we honestly think violence is natural and solves problems. That has to change. We can't legislate away gun violence overnight, I'm sure. We might be able to change the culture gradually. That's why I would like to change the emphasis away from the gun as an object and towards the person holding the weapon. It doesn't seem like a lot, I'm sure, but I think over the long haul it will help get a handle on this idea that guns are some kind of solution. Training is always the way to self defense, gun or not. You don't need a gun for nearly all situations anyone will find themselves in. I'd like to start there and work out. But I don't expect an overnight miracle, no. You are right about how sick our culture has become. |
2016-01-06T18:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44185 |
| I think a universal permitting system based on the standards now used in many states for concealed carry would do that. In other words, you have to prove you already passed the background check before you can buy anything. The NRA would hate this, of course, but I think the public would go along with it at this point. |
2016-01-06T16:24:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44180 |
| That is the problem, yes. I think that given there is a rejection rate for CC permits there are people who don't make the cut. But they can still own a gun even if they can't concealed-carry it. I think the standard should be that high just for ownership. | 2016-01-06T16:23:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44179 |
| I think a similar system is in place in many states for a CC permit. So why not have a permitting system? What's wrong with that? If you don't have the right kind of ID with the right permits on it any gun sale is illegal. That doesn't cut out illegal sales, of course, but it starts changing the emphasis onto training and skills - which I think is inherently more important. | 2016-01-06T01:12:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/06/people-not-guns/#comment-44169 |
| Yes, indeed. Also, he's been dead a long time - kind of like the generation of Saudi kings who weren't power-hungry spoiled playboys. The more I think about this the more I realize that this is just another example of too much money in the hands of stupid people. That seems to be a big problem lately. |
2016-01-06T01:10:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44168 |
| With friends like these, who needs enemies? | 2016-01-06T01:09:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44167 |
| You know. there are three big powers in the region - Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The first two are nominally our "allies" - but without any doubt the most contentious of any allies we have. Iran is supposedly our greatest enemy. However, I have to say that I have far more respect for them as a nation because they will at least look us in the eyes before they tell us to go screw ourselves. Our supposed "allies"? They both view us as their clients, to use Alan's term. I'd rather deal with Iran all in all, thank you. |
2016-01-04T17:45:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44138 |
| They would just assume run US oil out of business, yes. They prefer it when we are dependent on them. And, we should say over and over again, we are not. | 2016-01-04T17:42:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44137 |
| Exactly. They have dug themselves a terrible hole right now and do not seem to understand it. And they are indeed causing a lot more trouble than they ever used to. | 2016-01-04T16:23:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44135 |
| Yes. This will require tremendous leadership to get through. | 2016-01-04T15:08:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44131 |
| I agree that we are more their clients - their mercenary force. At least, we have been so far. We can't do that, especially in a Sunni/Shia fight. We've been played. We have our own major sources of oil now and don't have to let that happen. |
2016-01-04T15:08:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44130 |
| We also created Saddam Hussein and Hosni Mubarak. Our record is horrendous. But this is not our fight, though it would be easy to suck us into it. We have to pull ourselves out of this and this mess has to be the line. The new aggressively assertive Saudi Arabia is a terrible force for instability and it will only lead to much worse than the horrors we've already seen. |
2016-01-04T03:10:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2016/01/04/not-our-big-fight/#comment-44114 |
| It is a matter of risk, not size. Properly evaluating risk is the key to ANY free-market (or even capitalist :-) ) enterprise and that seems to be getting more difficult these days. But it's the cornerstone of the new regulation in place since the fall of Lehman, et al, and it has to be that way. I think it is favorable to have smaller banks for many reasons. We have a belief that banks should be able to fail and the rest of the world can move on. But there are other ways of handling that strange attitude, mainly through insurance. That and the requirements for quality assets that only get tougher as banks get bigger are good approaches, IMHO. But yes, it comes down to humans in the end. In a rush to get higher returns people who are incentivized to produce will do dumb things. Aggressive behavior is also an issue when the stakes get really high and the only employees who can handle the mad rush are young men on the make. There's a lot to think about here. The more I think about it "big" isn't necessarily the most important problem. But ... the appeal of "small" is pretty obvious. |
2015-12-29T16:11:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-44013 |
| On aspect of the op-ed I didn't tackle was the assertion that banks choose the people who work there. This was interesting because the recent selection of Kashkari as the new President of the Minneapolis Fed shed a lot of light on the process. His selection came from a committee comprised of the Board members who were specifically NOT bankers. And they selected a person with banking experience, yes, but a lot of non-banking experience as well. Some of the Fed regionals are more community minded than others. In St Louis, for example, Bullard has pioneered many expansions of community banking. Is the Fed politicized? I say no more than it was at its founding - and there are many good examples of it being much more open since Yellen took control - a process started by Bernanke. Could it be better? Yes, and we should encourage these efforts. A greater presence demands it. But to conflate the areas where there are definite problems with decisions like raising the Fed Funds Rate and Glass-Steagall is just irresponsible. Further, this "audit the Fed" talk is fine enough as far as it goes but it seems very unlikely that it could produce anything given how open the Fed's books are now for anyone to see. Sanders' comments alone are fine as far as they go. Questioning the Fed's influences is always good, yes. Removing some of their regulation power is probably called for, yes, and it will only help them be more independent. Where I have a problem is not as much in what Sanders said as the response I'm seeing from his supporters. And re-reading Sanders' op-ed I have to say that the conflation of many different things appears to be deliberate demagoguery for his base that Sanders should have known would fuel some of this lingering John Bircher / Libertarian nonsense. That's really disturbing to me. A world without the Fed is a world where the big banks have essentially unlimited power. As this piece is titled, be careful what you wish for. |
2015-12-28T17:42:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-44004 |
| You are far from the only one. The more I think about this the more frightened I am. I do believe, on the right at least, they are talking about a return to a rigid gold standard, yes. On the left I don't think they have imagined anything yet - which may be worse. |
2015-12-28T16:18:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-44002 |
| That should be lesson #1, yes. But this level of grandstanding from Sanders is more than a little disturbing to me. I'm afraid of how much conspiracy theorizing has penetrated the young "progressives", really left-libertarians. And I really think Sanders knows quite a bit better than this article. Why is he throwing his supporters more red meat when he should be reaching out, BTW? Isn't the goal to reach more voters, not just keep energizing your base? There's a lot here I don't get, but I can assure you that this op-ed was a purely political document. And yes, politicizing the Fed is damned dangerous. |
2015-12-28T14:26:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-43999 |
| Peace, love, and happiness? | 2015-12-28T14:24:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-43998 |
| Well, then. :-( I'm not against taking a close look at the Fed, but I am very wary of politicizing it or, even worse, getting rid of it. We need a public agency that is ultimately responsible and we need the liquidity of a reserve system. The Fed was a key victory of Progressives and we can't forget that. Far, far too many people have - and that really bothers me. |
2015-12-28T00:43:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/28/careful-what-you-wish-for/#comment-43989 |
| That did come out a bit strange, didn't it? Merry Christmas! | 2015-12-23T21:38:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43956 |
| Boring can be good! | 2015-12-23T21:38:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43955 |
| That's what I hope the break does. We do need to calm down, yes. | 2015-12-23T16:34:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43950 |
| Thanks! | 2015-12-23T16:33:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/21/starts-with-an-idea/#comment-43949 |
| Merry Christmas, and thanks! | 2015-12-23T16:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43948 |
| Merry Christmas to you, too! | 2015-12-23T16:33:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/23/stop-count-our-blessings/#comment-43947 |
| Absolutely. Perhaps that's the message to start with. But while we can educate the next generation easily we have to think about how to reach the adult population Better consumers would have a lot more power and put an end to a lot of bad behavior quickly, IMHO. | 2015-12-21T16:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/21/starts-with-an-idea/#comment-43928 |
| Active shareholders - a huge topic I've never been able to even get started with. But I do believe that it's really critical. I have no idea where to start, though! | 2015-12-21T16:12:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/21/starts-with-an-idea/#comment-43927 |
| I hear ya. But given that we know that financial education is so far behind there is a good place to start. Perhaps education consumers will first demand systems that are easier to understand - right now, I get the feeling that they are so used to the idea that it's all a mystery that they don't even really try. If we can just get over that we'll have something. | 2015-12-21T03:46:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/21/starts-with-an-idea/#comment-43920 |
| There has been inflation in some key areas. Generally, however, it's not what it used to be. There is a lot of talk that the basket of goods used to evaluate what inflation is needs to be seriously re-evaluated. | 2015-12-18T04:26:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43865 |
| It happened, right on schedule. | 2015-12-18T04:24:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43864 |
| They did! :-) | 2015-12-18T04:24:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43863 |
| I thought you said May the fourth, not January the fourth. Wait, let me get my glasses ... | 2015-12-18T04:24:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43862 |
| Or anything? | 2015-12-18T04:23:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/16/ready-for-anything/#comment-43861 |
| Then I'm doing my job well! :-) Perhaps I should say more about faith. Mine is pretty simple. Be good to each other and the rest will follow. :-) |
2015-12-14T14:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/14/charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-43826 |
| I think it's a very old song, in at least one form or another. It's also a Winter song that does not mention Christmas at all! So anyone can use it as long as there is snow. (we have none this year!) | 2015-12-14T14:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/14/charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-43825 |
| Christmas is so complex as a holiday - from its pagan origin to the spotty way it's celebrated among Christians to the modern commercialism - that it's always hard to know just what to make of it. Where I always go is "You shall know the just by their deeds." To me, this season really brings out the best and worst in us and lets us know who really "gets it". :-) |
2015-12-14T14:44:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/14/charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-43824 |
| I fear that, but the reaction to this has been so heavy that I don't think we will go any further for a while at least. But I offered "South Park" as an example because their "line" does indeed move a bit every year simply because they find it and dance on top of it, one foot just over the "line". | 2015-12-11T17:31:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43800 |
| Wow. There's a lot there, and thank you for it. We cannot discount the feelings of his followers. Our "leaders" have done a terrible job for a long time in one of the most essential features of leadership in a democratic-republic, which is to say making sure that the people are really with them. Let's take the flip-side for a moment - Bernie Sanders. Someone has to tell the truth as they see it if we're ever going to get anywhere! For many people, Trump is "the truth". There are a LOT of problems we've allowed to fester. Someone has to do something! I always think back to the "Contract With America" in 1994 - I do believe that the turning point for Gingrich came not so much in winning conservatives but with the sliver of centrists - maybe 10% of the voting population - that figured, "They have a plan and no one else does, why not give them a shot?" There's a cool logic in this, one supported in many ways by our deepest traditions. It's practical. Why not? Well, there are these moral imperative "lines" if you want one reason why not. Where are they? What do they look like? Until this came up I wasn't sure there were any lines anymore. Bounded chaos, bounded practicality, bounded patience. At some point it all comes down to understanding the boundaries. I'm a centrist by nature - I always come down the middle if there's any possible way to do it. Balance and harmony, that's me. America? Ha! We're a dynamic nation that always strikes out into undiscovered country. But we still have lines. There are still limits. I'm just not the guy that will find them. Matt and Trey are, and that's very cool. I like them a lot. |
2015-12-11T17:30:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43799 |
| Yes! Satire doesn't invite us to join the world - it stands apart from it. It tells people that "the in-crowd is over here" on a bad day, and on a good day manages nothing better than "it's all hopelessly screwed up, all ya can do is laugh!" I think we're largely unprepared to deal with reality and the more we go down this rat hole the harder it will be to climb out to the harsh light of day. That doesn't mean I don't find "South Park" to be hilarious. But to me it's more of a dessert than a good meal. I need more in my diet. |
2015-12-11T17:22:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43798 |
| I think I can say with confidence that 35% of all voters have definitely fascist leanings, yes. How they got to that point is another conversation, and one we should have, but I think we should be worried about it. And most Muslims do indeed live in nations best described as fascist, yes. A kind of national or islamic state terror oriented regime bent more on control than the welfare of the people. That has a lot to do with how we got where we are, for sure! As for this "line" that we seem to have crossed. It's not my "line", it's one set by the media and by general culture. The reaction to this part of Trump's message has been unlike all the previous things that I thought were pretty damned Nazi. I'm amazed by this, frankly. So this is the line, huh? Interesting. As for lightening up, there is a lot to be said for making fun of him more than wringing hands, I'll grant you. Another lesson from "South Park". And yes, there is still a loooong way to go before anyone votes. So we probably should never take this too seriously - the voters will take care of this at some point. I do trust them. But why this reaction now? I'm as much amazed as anything. I should have written this piece more with that tone in mind. Next time, I promise. :-) |
2015-12-11T17:19:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43797 |
| The hard line, the cultural line, is probably different from yours. I find it fascinating that it is at excluding a whole religion from entering the country - I did not see that coming. But yes, there have been many lines crossed ahead of this. Perhaps it's more of a "straw that broke the camel's back" situation? | 2015-12-11T17:13:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/11/crossing-the-line/#comment-43796 |
| Thanks! | 2015-12-09T20:14:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/09/empathy-2/#comment-43779 |
| Yes - maybe not answer the question but at least trying to find a way forward in the darkness. | 2015-12-09T17:29:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/09/empathy-2/#comment-43775 |
| Me. too. This is hard to stomach all around. | 2015-12-09T17:28:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/07/as-words-fail/#comment-43774 |
| Thank you! Really great stuff! | 2015-12-09T17:28:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/09/empathy-2/#comment-43773 |
| As always, you add so much! Thank you, love the idea of an empathic civilization. I only hope we can get there. | 2015-12-09T17:28:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/09/empathy-2/#comment-43772 |
| Thank you. Forget what other people say - desperate times call for Yeats. | 2015-12-09T17:27:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/07/as-words-fail/#comment-43771 |
| I honestly don't know most of the time. | 2015-12-07T17:28:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/07/as-words-fail/#comment-43738 |
| Even what you propose is a pretty big stretch politically. I think we can get to the "regulate guns like cars" stage with all this, given a change in leadership, but even that will be like pulling teeth. And I really doubt it will do anything useful. | 2015-12-07T17:27:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/07/as-words-fail/#comment-43737 |
| Yes, if we can help Minneapolis get through this I really want us to. We are all in this together. It does seem that St Paul is at least better and maybe enough better that we have a lot to contribute as the solution. No matter what I want us to be a part of this conversation. If nothing else I think that our city is not as racially divided and certainly not as heated up over this. If that can help us all get through to a brighter place we will have contributed something important. |
2015-12-04T18:17:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43692 |
| This is GOLD Tamrahjo, thank you for it! The only reason I'm not responding right away is that you have given us ALL a lot to think about carefully. Really great stuff, thank you! |
2015-12-04T18:14:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43691 |
| I agree. Being white definitely helps our attitude so it's best to not be too cocky, but from what I can tell we have kind, conscientious people who do their jobs very well. Community policing is built into their jobs all around. I do think we should pay them more just because they deserve it, too. But I would like to hear from non-whites about our police just to be sure. |
2015-12-04T16:42:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43686 |
| Fair enough. It's only $45k nationally, which is to say about the average for all workers. Is $54k a lot? I ask for a tremendous amount from police so I would say it's not nearly enough. It really depends on what you expect them to do. There are pretty big education requirements - a tough 2 year degree is a minimum, 4 year if you want to get anywhere. I believe we have to insist on the very best and in order to attract them I think we have to pay a lot. I do think it has to be worth it. |
2015-12-04T16:33:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43684 |
| It is almost certainly worse in other places. What's going on here is closer to my mind and I can get an understanding of it. I want to stress that from what I know we don't have this problem in St Paul - at least not on this scale. What are we doing right? The police can learn from each other, I'm sure. I hope they're all talking. | 2015-12-04T16:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43683 |
| Thanks! | 2015-12-04T16:30:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43682 |
| Keep typing your thoughts as they come! We have to get through this somehow. I'm sure that more than a few of the over-worked cops have a view of their community as "the enemy" and dread going to work / going out on a call. How are they going to get over it? What does the system need to do to make this change happen? When we call for "justice" there's a focus on individual actions. I'm trying to expand the focus because the solution has to involve the whole system making a fundamental change. Not being in the field it seems nearly impossible to do but someone has to know how to do this. |
2015-12-04T16:30:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43681 |
| I would love to hear more! I avoided the term "community policing" because it seems to take on many different forms in different communities - as it should. And sadly it hasn't worked well in some places so the term has some negative connotation. It's the cooperation and empowerment that seems to make the difference. When you have a community in a place where North Minneapolis in particular and black people in Minneapolis more largely are right now it's going to be very hard to build the trust and really empower in a way that has to happen to make it work well. I can only imagine how this will go from here - IF the commitment comes through! |
2015-12-04T16:27:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43679 |
| Thanks! | 2015-12-04T16:24:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43678 |
| Thanks. I'm never sure what I have to add to this, but I'm very sure that we have to talk about this - white people especially. | 2015-12-04T16:24:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/04/black-lives-matter/#comment-43677 |
| But I'm better at it. :-) |
2015-12-04T01:57:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/02/peoples-economics/#comment-43662 |
| MacBeth! :-) | 2015-12-02T21:35:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/02/peoples-economics/#comment-43645 |
| I am sad that you won't be there with us! I hope we have at least one accountant handy - everyone needs one. :-) | 2015-12-02T17:30:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/02/peoples-economics/#comment-43641 |
| Absolutely. My main question is what laws we have in place that we can't enforce due to stupid restrictions and what new laws do we need to make that as much a reality as possible? | 2015-12-02T17:30:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43640 |
| Thank you, but it is something I believe very sincerely. I was going to write this in a sarcastic way but I am starting to think that sarcasm is a cancer that will metastasize to consume us all. So I said it straight up. We come from violent stock and have no business complaining about other people's violence. | 2015-12-02T01:24:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43627 |
| The point is that they are trying - and it could have been a lot worse. We didn't have a repeat of 1929, so by that standard .... | 2015-12-02T00:58:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/12/02/peoples-economics/#comment-43625 |
| I can see that, but to say that Moslems are "violent" is still very hypocritical. | 2015-12-01T19:21:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43610 |
| A good addition - we have been at war nearly continuously since 2001. And we do kill a lot of people "by mistake" - with very little sorrow for that loss. | 2015-12-01T03:35:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43599 |
| Indeed, we do! | 2015-12-01T03:34:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43598 |
| It doesn't. The politics seems far less important to me than the constant need for people to use violence to get what they want. | 2015-12-01T03:34:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43597 |
| We are eating a smoked chicken - I like it! This is a world we made, by and large, it's true. We harvest what we plant. | 2015-12-01T03:33:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43596 |
| I tried to write it in a way that is hard to deny - as blankly as possible. But, alas, the denial at the core of European culture is critical - we are the great moral compass of the world, right? | 2015-12-01T03:32:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43595 |
| Yes - they are the scapegoat of the times. | 2015-12-01T03:32:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/30/violence-at-the-core/#comment-43594 |
| Thanks! | 2015-11-29T20:20:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43561 |
| Mine has problems with the Fs and F#s all the way up for some weird reason. They're all strung a bit differently! | 2015-11-29T20:19:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43560 |
| Oh, yeah. But let's not get her into pressed anchovies - they don't do well when pressed. They prefer a relaxed, creative environment. | 2015-11-28T22:25:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43543 |
| I need to do that, too. :-) My 1932 Kimball baby grand sounds great when it's in tune, but it's been a few years. | 2015-11-28T22:25:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43542 |
| A good plan! | 2015-11-27T20:41:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43528 |
| No, it is not! | 2015-11-27T20:37:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43526 |
| Pretty much, yes. |
2015-11-27T20:36:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43525 |
| Another vote for buy nothing day! It's a good idea all around. | 2015-11-27T20:36:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43524 |
| I hope not. I have faith in you! | 2015-11-27T20:36:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43523 |
| A good day to do just that! I will buy something, however - a tree from a small farm. | 2015-11-27T20:36:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/27/a-bit-darker/#comment-43522 |
| That is what I am getting at. We have basic values and we have to stick with them. They are what made us great in the first place! | 2015-11-27T20:35:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43521 |
| Hope you had a wonderful, thankful day! | 2015-11-27T20:34:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43520 |
| Yes! | 2015-11-27T20:33:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43519 |
| I talked about some of this. Actually, what I said was, "We don't make stuff in this country anymore." | 2015-11-27T20:33:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43518 |
| Thanks! | 2015-11-27T20:32:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43517 |
| Amen to you, too, brother! | 2015-11-25T16:52:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43466 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-11-25T16:52:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43465 |
| Thank you - we do need to stand up to all forms of terror and not let it change us! | 2015-11-25T16:52:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/25/give-thanks/#comment-43464 |
| Oh? Do tell. :-) | 2015-11-25T01:19:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/23/rising-again/#comment-43443 |
| I think that "$$$" is the universal language. | 2015-11-25T01:19:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/23/rising-again/#comment-43442 |
| I've been trying to make it better. The stupid finally got to me. :-) | 2015-11-23T16:11:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/20/all-politics-is-stupid/#comment-43404 |
| There are always opportunities somewhere! The difference is that the initiative has shifted to US investors and away from developing nation borrowers. But equity is much better than debt if you ask me, so if things move that direction it will be good for everyone. I'm still a bit worried about what happens if all the money out there comes home suddenly. |
2015-11-23T16:11:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/23/rising-again/#comment-43403 |
| I will continue to place my bet that their best days are behind them. :-) | 2015-11-23T01:51:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/23/rising-again/#comment-43386 |
| Mostly it is. Sometimes it's at least passable. :-) | 2015-11-20T17:03:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/20/all-politics-is-stupid/#comment-43338 |
| Another way to put it, from Pogo - "We have met the enemy and he is us." :-) | 2015-11-20T17:03:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/20/all-politics-is-stupid/#comment-43337 |
| When they're doing the work of terrorists, dividing the world into Islam and everyone else, all comparisons to horrible people seem rather fair to me. | 2015-11-20T17:01:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/20/all-politics-is-stupid/#comment-43336 |
| Nice guys. :-) | 2015-11-19T17:01:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43309 |
| Thanks. But I think the conclusion here is that things were more or less just truckin' along and no one is really paying attention - which seems to be true for nearly everything. | 2015-11-18T19:29:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43290 |
| No, not really. :-) (I assume you were being saarcastic) | 2015-11-18T19:29:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43289 |
| It certainly surprised me. They tried to hit everything they could, too. In other nations subsidies usually come from state-run companies. So it's a different setup all around. It's hard to compare generally. |
2015-11-18T16:42:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43284 |
| Targeted subsidies, such as home heating assistance that goes directly to the poor, is always going to be cheaper than a broad subsidy that lowers the price for everyone. Then again, a cash payment to the poor that allows them to make the choices they need (food, energy, etc) is the best for them and also probably cheaper in the long run. BUT - to help everyone some stability in critical markets like food and energy is probably more useful than actually lowering the price, IMHO. |
2015-11-18T16:41:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43283 |
| I have come to believe that a technology based solution in a competitive framework like this is the best go-to alternative before we start subsidizing things. Having said that, I know it's not always going to work. But we can imagine a checklist for governments facing problems that at least starts here. The X Prize is a great start. Their resources are limited but ... wow ... |
2015-11-18T16:39:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43282 |
| It's troubling. I understand why many nations subsidize energy - it's vital to modern life. But that makes the energy market stagnant and less efficient - and directly conflicts with the need for new sources! This is a classic problem for the left. Market forces are very, very powerful and there are good reasons to have a light hand whenever possible. But there are also good reasons to subsidize basic services. There is no "one answer" !! |
2015-11-18T16:37:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/18/money-down-a-hole/#comment-43281 |
| In other words, if your schtick is based on calling things like they are it's a Depression. :-) | 2015-11-17T15:15:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43248 |
| I'm actually OK with some level of "Black Friday". I know some families go out and shop together and if that's their thing then more power to 'em. I only want to see Thanksgiving, the one day, preserved. That is what is important to me. | 2015-11-16T18:52:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43231 |
| I think it is, too. | 2015-11-16T18:51:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43230 |
| What is a "Great Recession" if not a "Depression"? :-) | 2015-11-16T18:51:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43229 |
| We need Thanksgiving, I feel, as a nation. It's universal and non-sectarian but very centering. We should be thankful for what we have! | 2015-11-16T18:50:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/16/black-friday-2/#comment-43228 |
| It only makes sense when you think about $9 trillion in "carry trade", or US Dollars loaned out in the developing world, that has to come home once things start normalizing. The key is to follow the money and look for something to break - which it is (slowly) now. | 2015-11-13T17:21:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/13/not-so-fast/#comment-43196 |
| It's tanking quicker than I expected - much quicker than the stock market. We might breach 2.25% today or on Monday at this rate. But the call is for below 2.00% as the dust settles early in 2016. That will be good for everyone. | 2015-11-13T17:20:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/13/not-so-fast/#comment-43195 |
| I'm still bearish as all Hell on gold. Even if the US Dollar doesn't appreciate I see it going nowhere but down - a trajectory it recently picked up again after a brief spike up during the August - September market volatility. I see the price of gold as nothing more than an indicator of fear, and I see fear subsiding through the next several years. http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/ |
2015-11-13T01:23:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/13/not-so-fast/#comment-43165 |
| Well, then - hardly a "girl". :-) | 2015-11-12T18:29:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43154 |
| Who is Melissa Benoist and should I know her? :-) | 2015-11-12T14:40:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43149 |
| I have not found yet who they considered for the position. The Board of directors is here: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about/board-of-directors Note that only the "Class B" and "Class C" members were voting on the new President. They generally represent businesses in the area, but Hang does not. |
2015-11-11T20:52:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43137 |
| We don't know yet. My hunch is that he will, or at least be more eager than Kocherlakota. But Kashkari doesn't get to vote as a member of the FOMC until 2017 anyways. | 2015-11-11T20:50:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43136 |
| Thanks! | 2015-11-11T16:58:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/09/a-thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-43130 |
| I think so! He's kind of the anti-Kocherlakota in some ways. | 2015-11-11T16:57:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/11/curtain-rises-on-kashkari/#comment-43129 |
| Is it that transparent? :-) Seriously, imagine what it was like waiting for news - the anticipation that turns into anxiety. It must have been nerve wracking! | 2015-11-11T16:57:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/09/a-thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-43128 |
| If they don't like it then they should try to not be so tasty ... | 2015-11-11T16:56:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/09/a-thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-43127 |
| There is a good, patriotic reason! | 2015-11-11T16:55:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/09/a-thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-43126 |
| Schroedinger's cat never escapes, too. :-) | 2015-11-06T21:56:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43073 |
| Thanks! | 2015-11-06T19:43:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43069 |
| Yes, very low. They don't normally regress to the mean all in one month like this - which is really what happened and nothing more. Stocks are down slightly but the 10yr is up to 2.32% already - a gain of 7 basis points in one day (0.07%). That's a big swing. If stocks tank, however, there will be downward pressure on that if investors turn to bonds - which I do not expect to happen today. Give it a week. |
2015-11-06T15:01:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43065 |
| This will be a critical week no matter what. I can't see that the jobs report will be bad no matter what given the ADP numbers. | 2015-11-06T03:30:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43051 |
| It's what I do. :-) | 2015-11-06T03:29:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/06/ready-for-liftoff/#comment-43050 |
| That's the promise of the internet - leveling the playing field in terms of media access by companies large and small. But it still takes a major cultural / attitude shift to make it happen. As I always say, the economy is all about value and values - those really are the same word despite how we use them distinctly. | 2015-11-05T15:57:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43038 |
| Good point. The postwar world is starting to look so antique it's hard to make any sense of it. Welcome to the other side of the Managed Depression - a time when everything changes! :-) |
2015-11-04T19:46:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43015 |
| We have always been kidding ourselves, yes. But we're learning a little more with each blow-up in our understanding of the "facts" - if that helps at all. :-) | 2015-11-04T19:37:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43013 |
| No need to apologize - the implications of this peeling back of the veneer of understanding (and implied control) are vast. And indeed it's a very human thing, or at least a modern human thing, to delude ourselves into the belief that everything can be put into a permanent equilibrium and controlled forever. Consider the Black-Scholes-Merton equation that supposedly takes risk out of investing but still generates a decent net return. There is obviously something wrong in the whole approach, but it wasn't until the fall of Lehman that we understood it - risk wasn't dispatched, it was shared. Socialized, in fact, across the markets and ultimately by the taxpayers. It was all nonsense and should have been dispatched as so right away. But the beliefs that we have in place which presume that what we see today is true forever are indeed very human. Does the sun not come up every day? There ya go. :-) |
2015-11-04T19:36:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43012 |
| Resiliency is the key to me, which is why I've written about it (and around it) many times. I think that's the main reason that too much Financial Capacity (as per the last post) is a problem. We cannot commoditize everything and expect that the world will not become a much more harsh place. I really think it's that simple. The more we honor craftsmanship and decency the more we will have that in our lives - and better lives for everyone, everywhere. | 2015-11-04T19:32:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-43011 |
| In terms of resources, there is a finite limit and I agree that wise people have known for a long time that it cannot continue. But in terms of arts or services or other products of the mind there are no limits. The more we are a "software" world the more growth can, in fact, continue. But even that argument is dashed against something very fundamental failing right now. It's chilling. One conclusion I hope people takeaway from this is that the maven who predict a wonderful software-based economy are also kidding themselves - unless we fix something much more fundamental, that is. Is it even fixable? |
2015-11-04T01:18:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-42994 |
| Pretty much, yes. | 2015-11-04T00:54:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/04/failing-facts/#comment-42991 |
| I think we do agree. The finance industry has too much power largely because it was granted to them. Perhaps the solution is simply better education all around, but I think there may be more. Regulations that encourage a more cozy, personal relationship between lender and borrower might well be in order - I am a big fan of credit unions generally, you know. For business I think Clinton has spoken out well on this but a lot more has to be fleshed out. More than anything I think a change in attitude is what we need and the education part probably has to lead, yes. |
2015-11-03T16:47:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42983 |
| It's more about the social implications of a world where everything is meaured in terms of its output on a monthly/quarterly basis. Why are companies measured entirely in the short term and often rewarded for desperately short-term thinking? That's the attitude we have. The idea is that the root of this thinking comes from the financial capacity. | 2015-11-02T14:29:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42951 |
| You simply have to tell us more! But I'm far from surprised. What "business managers" want to know is often far from reality. It's a serious problem because many companies build incentive systems for employees that ultimately really aren't helping a damned thing. | 2015-11-02T04:15:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42940 |
| That would be a good principle to start with, yes. :-) | 2015-11-02T04:07:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/30/tempus-fugit-2/#comment-42938 |
| It's really just a number. I think we could get used to it no matter what the number is. Supposedly our world is set for sunrise and sunset at 6 o'clock - but that changes an awful lot with the seasons anyway. | 2015-11-02T04:06:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/30/tempus-fugit-2/#comment-42937 |
| I think I just got all of them. :-) | 2015-11-02T04:05:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/30/tempus-fugit-2/#comment-42936 |
| I can always blame the British - especially the Royal Navy. :-) People do indeed already do this all the time. It's a feature of globalism. I'm simply calling for us to unite all of our thinking to make a truly global world part of our daily lives. | 2015-11-02T04:05:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/30/tempus-fugit-2/#comment-42935 |
| Maybe. All of the answers I have given may be correct, however. An excess of workers, the process of "evening out" the global economy into one thing, and the over-financialization of everything are in many ways the same problem. Everything in the old industrial economy has been "commoditized" - including workers. The solution is a more artisan economy based on adding real value and producing real goods. Within that, there is a lot of value in being local as well as room for a lot more workers - and little need for more credit or the services of an ever more "innovative" financial world. This may be the "one big thing" but I think it helps unite all the potential things that have gone wrong with brilliant illumination more than anything. Connections. Again, it's all about connections. :-) |
2015-11-02T04:02:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42934 |
| Precisely. As I hope you know, I am a big supporter of the Fed through this because I know that they have the best interests of working people in their hearts, minds, words, and action. However - there are clearly limits to what they can do and many of these became obvious. Here is something that is not entirely obvious - something rotten at the heart of our economic theories about credit and economic growth. The Fed's actions may have unintentionally done a lot more harm than we thought. |
2015-11-02T03:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/11/02/too-much-credit/#comment-42930 |
| Perhaps. But it is hard to start from scratch in so many ways, starting with ballot access. | 2015-10-29T13:57:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42833 |
| Both are popular. Free college is pretty well split, but favored slightly https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/08/20/three-fifths-want-debt-free-college/ and the minimum wage hike is generally favored http://www.raisetheminimumwage.com/pages/polling | 2015-10-28T23:07:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42826 |
| I will look, but I do not know about any polling data. That is very good question. A big part of leadership is moving any poll, of course. :-) | 2015-10-28T23:01:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42825 |
| Any attention at all is good. :-) | 2015-10-28T23:00:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42824 |
| The Supreme Court in Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission upheld the authority of an independent redistricting commission to act as the governing body in the case of redistricting. This means that independent commissions with ultimate authority can be created by the people of the state if they change the constitution, as they did in Arizona. It's a blow in favor of more fair districts but not a mandate by any means. | 2015-10-28T17:14:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/28/paint-the-map-blue/#comment-42816 |
| Pretty much. But this means that the Free Market will sort it out, which is not necessarily a bad thing. But yes, there is no comprehensive solution introduced all at once that encompasses everything. | 2015-10-28T17:11:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42815 |
| My understanding is that the new cards have the new liability but the old cards have the old liability. That appears to put the onus on the merchant to get the new machines to process them properly, but some of the things I read suggested that this was not the case - a new card in an old machine does not change liability to the merchant. That doesn't make sense to me so I assume it is wrong. | 2015-10-28T17:10:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42814 |
| You may be right - the PIN is the European standard, we seemed to have gone our own way. I think some will have a PIN but the standard for the new liability is apparently signature - and I have no idea how it checks that the signatures match. This is more confusing than I thought. | 2015-10-28T17:04:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42813 |
| This is the first report I've seen on the system. Seriously. They are very rare here and I have yet to see anyone use a new card in a new machine. | 2015-10-26T02:44:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42739 |
| That is my read of it, yes. The new cards come with a promise of better security, and fulfillment of that falls partly on merchants. | 2015-10-26T02:39:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/26/credit-cards-still-failing/#comment-42737 |
| Pretty much, yes. | 2015-10-26T02:39:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/23/clinton-the-team/#comment-42736 |
| No one really knows what is going on anymore, that is clear to me. I intend to say that with a great deal of style. :-) Making arrangements with the viddy pros right now. :-) |
2015-10-26T02:39:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42735 |
| Here is where I'm at - let's get a really good plan together outside of the political system. Dodd-Frank was close, but it came from inside primarily. One we have a good plan in place we can push for it - and if it fails the problem will be in high relief. I do think that just saying "The system is broken" is not going to get us anywhere, nor is trying to fix it without a specific goal. People unite around causes and political reform is awfully abstract. Once the reason it's needed is clear it has a chance, IMHO. |
2015-10-26T02:38:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/21/the-glass-steagall-battle/#comment-42734 |
| The voters have been favoring that a lot over the last 50 years. There is a reason why. Can't say it's a good reason, however. :-) | 2015-10-26T02:35:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/23/clinton-the-team/#comment-42733 |
| Can you at least tell us who you are quoting, then? | 2015-10-23T04:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/23/clinton-the-team/#comment-42653 |
| I honestly don't know what you mean. | 2015-10-23T01:57:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/23/clinton-the-team/#comment-42650 |
| We're coming from two different places. I believe that good regulation allows everything that does not interfere with a defined public need, purpose, or property. If the public wants to have their services in one place they should be allowed to have that unless there is a good reason not to in this thinking. In other words, use a light hand unless there's a good reason not to. | 2015-10-21T16:19:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/21/the-glass-steagall-battle/#comment-42609 |
| This is where I start to lose people, partly because I really don't know. But I suspect that if the industry really believes there is an economy of scale in basic checking and savings services we need to start there. It may be a case of inappropriate regulation that increases overhead or something like that, but when you have something where there is a perceived economy of scale it's about overhead one way or the other. | 2015-10-21T16:18:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/21/the-glass-steagall-battle/#comment-42608 |
| Good point. I have all this stuff around here somewhere. :-) | 2015-10-20T19:13:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42590 |
| Some of this will be about economic perspectives - how to see the events of the last few years (decades?) differently. | 2015-10-20T19:12:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42589 |
| Thanks! I think if I do something a bit different it will work well. But I want to collapse the formality of the event at least at the end. | 2015-10-19T16:54:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42564 |
| Maybe we can do it on a weekend? It seems that there's always a lot going on then, which is what I was trying to avoid. | 2015-10-19T16:53:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/19/econ-for-everyone/#comment-42563 |
| Yes! :-) A strong economy is good for Democrats all around. It's one of the keys to the election, really. | 2015-10-16T17:41:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42507 |
| Right on! But to be fair consumer credit was really tightened in 2010 or so and hasn't loosened up much. That's probably for the best if it stays that way - but it has been hurting us. Again, this is all about transforming the economy into something new, something where we have the strong base to be able to handle globalism without it killing us. And that does mean more local sourcing. I have been thinking about this a lot but in all honesty the data showing what direction we're going just isn't there to give me anything conclusive. I'd love to find one or two things that we should keep an eye on but I just can't. It's all talk, all the way through as far as I can tell. Maybe we are moving the right direction but it's very hard to say. Overall, though, I totally agree with you. For example, Egypt imports 60% of its food. That means that when their currency fluctuates because of something stupid by banks the people starve. Their whole nation is unstable largely for this reason. I'm all for free global markets but not covering the basics at a local level is a recipe for disaster. The key to me is Resiliency or the ability to weather a likely storm. I use Egypt as an example because it's pretty extreme, IMHO, but we have similar issues with energy, relying way too heavily on imports and unsustainable sources. I favor renewables not because I love polar bears or anything - it's simply the right thing to do for the economy. |
2015-10-16T17:40:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42506 |
| It won't, so we all have to deal with it. :-) | 2015-10-16T16:56:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42502 |
| Allright then, here's something to think about at a time when the velocity or turnover of money is at an historic low: Let's say you mow your lawn. Great, you have a nice looking lawn. But why didn't you pay someone to do it? Then they would have money they could use to eat out and the cycle continues through the economy, providing work for everyone. Now, let's say that you are spending money on something with a lot lower labor component like a TV or something. But there is still someone with a job because of it, right? Why is it better for you to save that money rather than provide that worker with a job? And even if that job is far away aren't we all one big global economy at some point? |
2015-10-16T16:56:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42501 |
| I didn't mention it but it is often cited. In general I think the disposable income is up quite a lot year over year, which has to help. | 2015-10-16T16:32:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42497 |
| You know I'm with you on a personal level - we do have too much crap. But this really is a critical economic indicator and we can't just dump it overnight without a lot of pain. I have been wondering if people's habits are changing - buying less, buying more artisan works, etc. The reason we had several weak Christmases may have at least something to do with a gradual change away from a buying frenzy. But I have zero data on that despite looking every year. What I can say is that sales at big stores are lagging the overall growth. Meanwhile, let's all buy a really nice piece of art from some craftsman for the people we love and enjoy some time loafing by the fire. :-) |
2015-10-16T16:32:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/16/holiday-shopping-2015/#comment-42496 |
| We need to stop playing games, yes. | 2015-10-12T17:36:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42401 |
| Fair enough, but our interest is definitely in peace. Whether or not we have promoted it properly is another question and I'm willing to hear arguments. The problem I have is that players on both sides now have no interest in peace, which is troubling. As for the rebels having a chance, they were about to topple Assad, or so it seemed, two months ago. Their advances were impressive. That is why Russia got involved directly - something they have not done since Afghanistan in 1979. |
2015-10-12T17:36:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42400 |
| Hardly a smoking gun. Seriously, Assad started this with a brutal crackdown when starving kids put graffiti on a wall. In the early days of this conflict there was no sectarian element to it at all - so how can they say we "ignited" it? The Saudis, on the other hand, did turn it into a sectarian conflict. We at least looked the other way when they did and possibly aided them - though there is no evidence to support that. There is no evidence in this article that we "started" this war at all. Sorry, I don't buy that one bit. |
2015-10-12T03:03:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42385 |
| The West didn't create Assad, though. Are you also saying the US started this? | 2015-10-12T02:16:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42383 |
| I don't think we "started" this war, no, but we apparently looked the other way when the Saudis armed the rebels. I know that a lot of people think we are responsible for this but I don't see it that way. | 2015-10-12T01:58:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/12/never-ending-conflict/#comment-42381 |
| Good point, it isn't really that different. It just looks worse. | 2015-10-09T17:43:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/09/republican-chaos-democrats-in-charge/#comment-42328 |
| Not yet we don't. :-) Seriously, that is a good point. My only response is that it can't be worse. |
2015-10-09T17:43:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/09/republican-chaos-democrats-in-charge/#comment-42327 |
| It's all a horrible way to run anything. | 2015-10-08T17:57:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/07/runnin-on-empty/#comment-42295 |
| I was thinking about writing on that topic next, actually! | 2015-10-07T19:46:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/07/runnin-on-empty/#comment-42279 |
| I already have - there's a blank post up here somewhere. :-) | 2015-10-07T19:46:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/07/runnin-on-empty/#comment-42278 |
| Sure have. :-) | 2015-10-07T19:46:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/07/runnin-on-empty/#comment-42277 |
| Two things come to mind - the first is that our government needs to track proper "investment" debt much better with GAAP: http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/ And an older article on the payback on infrastructure: http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/ |
2015-10-06T03:39:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42218 |
| I think the 10% U6 unemployment tells that story - and it was as high as 17%. 1 in 10 people does not have enough work - that is a very serious crisis, and it's still about as high as it ever was before 2010. | 2015-10-05T19:46:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42210 |
| People allege this all the time, but there is no evidence to prove that. Because of the complex way it is calculated it is indeed a "black box" to most people, which fuels skepticism. But you cannot argue that those in charge have consistently gotten good employment numbers right before an election, for example. |
2015-10-05T18:53:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42208 |
| We have to look at the net accuracy. All unemployment rates (thank you for the plural!) are reported to the tenth of a percent, or part per thousand. Do we have that level of accuracy? It's hard to be sure, but we are at least close - it does go up and down 0.1% from one month to the next but that may be real. What I'm arguing here is that there is no way they have accuracy beyond that, however, which I think we can say for sure. |
2015-10-05T18:52:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42207 |
| The unemployment rate is NOT a lie, it is what it is. The "headline" unemployment rate, U3, only tells part of the story and no one in the profession believes it is the best measure. U6 is also reported at the same time and is publicly available, but largely ignored by the media. That stands at 10.0%. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm | 2015-10-05T18:46:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42204 |
| YES! That is the real problem. It's a lot like election polling - a difference inside the margin of error is not a difference. | 2015-10-05T15:47:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42200 |
| I think that's a little strong, but we don't know as much as we would like. My conclusion here is that we DO know we gained about 200k jobs in September no matter what the numbers say. | 2015-10-05T15:47:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42199 |
| We want to run our world with numbers because everything is supposed to be rational and in control. But there are limits to our ability to do that. Worse, the numbers are usually only fuel for our prejudices and need to fight about nearly everything. Can we really run an economy entirely with numbers? The short answer is no, because hope and fear play a big role in where things are going. People are not all that hopeful right now so they tend to be careful with purchases, keeping it cool. And there are definite limits to what we can measure in the first place. |
2015-10-05T15:46:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/05/bad-jobs-numbers/#comment-42198 |
| I would prefer if we didn't put that stuff into the tax code and instead had instant rebates handled separately. I know that sounds like a trivial difference, but I do think that a certain purity in the tax code is important. People need to feel that it really is fair and that there aren't breaks being given to people for bad reasons. The cleaner we can keep it the better the perception - and the harder it is to genuinely hide things that only benefit a few. | 2015-10-04T17:29:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42181 |
| Infrastructure is an investment, something I've written about long ago. There are great studies which show the net return from it, which is astonishing. As Anna said below calling investment debt "hedge" is somehow not satisfactory, but Minsky clearly takes a dim view of all debt. Calling it investment has judgment all over and separates "good" debt from "bad". I'm willing to make that judgment myself. We can judge the net effectiveness of investment, after all. | 2015-10-04T17:27:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42180 |
| Thanks. I guess I probably should talk about this more. The thing is that I've always wanted to separate debt into categories like this - and that data doesn't really exist from what I can tell. | 2015-10-04T17:25:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42179 |
| Minsky calls it a hedge, but it's investment. It's the "good debt". | 2015-10-04T17:24:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42178 |
| I wouldn't go that far, but it can become one. | 2015-10-04T17:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/10/02/black-hole/#comment-42177 |
| Ha! Good point. I guess that will take more rational voters if we really get the government we deserve. | 2015-10-01T18:43:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42130 |
| Good to have your perspective! Thanks! | 2015-10-01T16:26:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42127 |
| It does, but disclosure alone helps highlight just what the problem is. It appears that voters, on balance, actually get this pretty well. So let's give them the information needed to hone their objections and then we can take action. A functioning government? Only if people insist. :-) | 2015-09-30T17:28:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42107 |
| That is always best! | 2015-09-30T17:27:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42106 |
| Thanks! What I am proposing starts with the most basic kind of reform - disclosure. Right now, we have no idea what special tax breaks there are and how much it costs us. There simply isn't a table. Compiling one that shows all the breaks, including the relatively rarely used ones, will demonstrate the problem. I think from there it becomes easy to keep the tax code simpler. Right now, we really don't know all the details. |
2015-09-30T17:26:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/30/reforming-reform/#comment-42105 |
| Upon reflection, there is a gaping omission in this piece. It appears that conservative Republicans do not understand or do not care that they simply do not have the votes to get through absolutely anything that they want. They have no regard at all for the elaborate system which requires consensus that the Founding Fathers set up. They appear to believe that they should simply have their way no matter what. Given our system it's hard to imagine what Boehner or McConnell (the next on the list) were supposed to do to force their way. Set fire to the Reichstag? Yes, that's an inflammatory position but you ultimately have to question their commitment to this Democratic Republic and the principles upon which it was founded. They clearly believe that the ends justify the means, which is to say that they are the ones who follow the teachings of Saul Alinsky to the letter. Their tactics demonstrate this, too. But whereas Alinsky understood the system and was willing to work through it, empowering the powerless, this group starts from a position of power and greedily demands more. We have to start calling them for what they are - fundamentally un-American. It is time for everyone who cares about this nation to call out these power-hungry monsters for who they are and return to our basic principles as a people. We can get through these hard times and weather the winds of change. We've been through far worse. We got through the bad times in our history with the bedrock understanding at the core of our nation that there is strength in unity, and that unity is achieved through the process of building consensus. If they are unwilling to be a part of that unity then they must be cast aside. We have spent many years avoiding that decision largely because the vast majority of good people of this nation understand our principles, usually at their unspoken core. But perhaps it is time to simply say, "A house divided against itself cannot stand" one more time. Have we really arrived at that place? I hope not. But let's start by being clear - "Our Constitution works," in the words of another great Republican. It must be respected, and those who have not been granted full authority to do whatever they want by the citizens must learn to work within the system granted to us by great men long ago. Once we have called them out if they do not respond appropriately then they are, in fact, the enemies of our Democratic Republic. The conservative "Republicans" who insist on getting their way on every issue are fundamentally un-American. It is that simple. If they do not change their ways they must be cut away for the good of this great nation. |
2015-09-29T17:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/28/exit-boehner-enter/#comment-42083 |
| He was a moderate compared to the forces that are in the process of being unleashed. I think you'll see what I mean. The real crazies are about to take control of things and it's not going to be good. | 2015-09-28T19:49:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/28/exit-boehner-enter/#comment-42063 |
| Pretty much. | 2015-09-28T19:48:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/28/exit-boehner-enter/#comment-42062 |
| No, they really don't. To a person, it seems. I was on facebook earlier and a few Republican friends were telling how good this is for the party. | 2015-09-28T19:48:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/28/exit-boehner-enter/#comment-42061 |
| They should be. The 10yr is definitely hovering closer to 2% now. It was nearly 3% just a couple of years ago. | 2015-09-26T18:39:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/25/good-news-its-good-news/#comment-42001 |
| I agree, but we have a firm commitment now. | 2015-09-26T18:38:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/25/good-news-its-good-news/#comment-42000 |
| At the Fed, maybe. Everywhere else? I doubt it. :-) | 2015-09-26T18:38:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/25/good-news-its-good-news/#comment-41999 |
| It will be interesting! | 2015-09-23T22:29:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/23/pope-francis-teacher/#comment-41922 |
| That would be good, yes. :-) | 2015-09-23T17:14:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/23/pope-francis-teacher/#comment-41914 |
| Bless you! This is great to hear. We all need a charity that we volunteer at because there is work to be done - so much of it not able to pay. | 2015-09-23T16:07:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/23/pope-francis-teacher/#comment-41911 |
| It is amazing. Sometimes the system really does work. :-) | 2015-09-23T16:05:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-41910 |
| Give me a coupla hours, dude! | 2015-09-22T22:17:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/21/read-their-lips/#comment-41885 |
| Thank you very much! It is amazing how much campaigns on both sides focus on one group or another while not paying any attention to what they are doing to the opposite side. We live in a time when everything can be a firestorm so you pretty much have to presume everything you say and do will turn into one. But they rarely do. I don't. know. Glad to provide those links, BTW. :-) |
2015-09-22T15:19:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41876 |
| That is what I think will beat out the desire to hold the line on taxes. It's far too obvious that the exemptions for special interests are an albatross. It's really up to the Democrats to make them one, however. | 2015-09-21T19:18:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/21/read-their-lips/#comment-41853 |
| Then we shall see. :-) | 2015-09-21T19:17:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/21/read-their-lips/#comment-41852 |
| I agree that the more regressive taxes (sales, consumption) are always the first to be suggested for raising by the Republicans. That is what mostly happened in Kansas. But they have gone a bit beyond that recently and are indeed starting to stand for a general tax rise. I really hate Trump, but he brought up the subject and now we are all talking about it - and the sky is not falling. | 2015-09-21T19:17:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/21/read-their-lips/#comment-41851 |
| I have no idea where we get them from. It is frightening all around. I keep thinking we need another FDR, but another Truman would be good, too. He had a firm grasp on reality and wasn't afraid to fight for it. | 2015-09-18T15:30:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41754 |
| The lack of a reality based politics is a serious problem all around, yes. Interesting take on Lakoff. I have been looking at his stuff more and more because I do agree that a consistent progressive philosophy has to be developed if we are going to make real progress. But I don't see the essentials coming from him - again, we all seem to whine a lot without actually doing anything (me included). |
2015-09-18T15:29:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41753 |
| So ... what are we gonna do about it? That's my problem lately. I hate whining about something and not doing anything about it. That does seem to be about all I do, too. | 2015-09-18T01:26:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41745 |
| True leadership has room for personal perspective, belief, and faith. We have a tremendous leadership crisis throughout the developed world. | 2015-09-18T01:01:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41743 |
| Absolutely. They have simply burned out at this point. The real question is what kind of Democrats will take their place - the Not Republicans, the Progressives, or something else? Right now the Progressives are the only ones with a real agenda, but I expect that to change. | 2015-09-18T00:59:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41742 |
| I do agree. Control over women is control of the next generation in many respects, and that is the greatest desire of all despots. | 2015-09-18T00:58:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/18/s-s-same-as-it-ever-was/#comment-41741 |
| While I do not like Trump at all, I would take his money happily. | 2015-09-18T00:57:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/16/6962/#comment-41740 |
| I believe this is correct as well. I don't see the need for more of it in the future, and if anything less. We are seeing the Class B and C stuff in downtown converted to apartments. | 2015-09-18T00:57:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/16/6962/#comment-41739 |
| It is better all the time - go visit! There's still a "dead zone" from Wabasha to about Robert, but in Lowertown and Rice Park there is a lot. The Pedro Park area is also coming around! | 2015-09-18T00:56:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/16/6962/#comment-41738 |
| While we're getting Sanders and Corbyn, what voters really want is Nicola Sturgeon (SNP). But older, established leaders that "get it" will do in a pinch. There is a generation gap in voting patterns, for sure. |
2015-09-16T00:32:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41695 |
| We will simply have to see. Britain rejected a mush middle in favor of a more resolute middle. Does that mean they are really hungry for a new direction? We will probably begin to see very shortly. | 2015-09-14T22:59:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41677 |
| I agree. For me, Clinton clearly has the leadership skills which make it easy for me to imagine her as President with a diverse, sometimes argumentative circle of advisors who are capable of making some solid progress. But the lack of a solid agenda that demonstrates what she stands for and what this potentially awesome power might be directed towards prevents me from supporting her now. |
2015-09-14T22:57:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41676 |
| A good point - we have to make sure we win first of all. Think of how old the Supreme Court is, for one! | 2015-09-14T15:12:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41669 |
| The next six months will tell us a lot about where things are going. The Republican race will probably settle down a lot, too. | 2015-09-14T15:11:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41668 |
| I think there is reason to take heart from it, but the situation is different enough here that it's easy to make way too much of it. And you are right about Clinton and her team. The point is that there is indeed a global movement and they can capitalize off of each others' successes. That helps a lot in terms of positive news but does it do anything more? | 2015-09-14T15:11:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41667 |
| Thank you! I think there is a lot to learn from the UK, as we often do - and they learn from us. It's an interesting arrangement given our different systems. | 2015-09-14T00:39:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/14/anarchy-in-the-uk/#comment-41654 |
| The macro makes more sense to me, yes, the old fashioned Keynesian creating work and priming the pump stuff. But part of me believes there is no actual "macro", which is to say I'm starting to really by the whole "Behavioral Economics" way of thinking. But on the whole, the idea that we can increase the money supply as a way out of this seems ludicrous. Call me an old fashioned demand sider - at least for now. |
2015-09-10T23:09:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41588 |
| Several problems with this. One is household deleveraging, which has stopped - in fact, consumer credit is expanding right now. The other is that I'm not so sure the USD will appreciate, assuming the carry trade is killed off - demand for US Dollars may go down very low, especially with commodities cheap, and drive the value of it down. Lastly, there are signs that GDP growth is accelerating and there is upward pressure on wages. The key to it all is that stupid carry trade, IMHO. If trillions of US dollars are repatriated we will see interest rates have a net fall - or at least stay stable as the Fed Funds Rate goes up. It's totally counter-intuitive, but reasonable. The spread between the 10yr and the FFR is at the top end of its range at 2.2% right now - if that falls back to the average 1% and the FFR is at 0.75%, we have a 10yr at only 1.75% - quite a bit lower than today. There is room for that to happen if USD is repatriated like I think it will be. |
2015-09-10T16:40:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41582 |
| The Fed deserves criticism for their regulatory functions, which I think everyone agrees are done in a very lax and chummy environment. I think they should be stripped of them and left to concentrate on being the central bank. So I consider that criticism more than valid. But to go after them for how they set rates, especially now that they are far more open than in the past, seems really unfair to me. |
2015-09-09T19:28:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41562 |
| Excellent analogy! Unless you want to wait for it to just fall off on its own. :-) | 2015-09-09T18:24:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41559 |
| I don't know that she is being treated that differently, but it does seem that there is a loss of respect for the Fed as an institution. Given their unusually dovish position that seems reasonable to me, which is to say I'm not sure we can blame it on her gender. But this is an excellent question. I will look through the more disparaging articles and see if I can sense any sexism. | 2015-09-09T18:24:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41558 |
| I am sure you are right. But I would like my friends on the left to really see that chart of interest rates and really listen to Yellen, Kocherlakota, Bullard, and some of the others there and understand how much they deeply care about working people and how they have really stuck their necks out to keep the stimulus as hot as they can for a long time in order to create jobs. Yes, the whole system has serious problems. But there are good people in high places within it all the same. We must recognize them if we're ever going to get anywhere. |
2015-09-09T18:22:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41557 |
| Good way to look at it. Watching the stock market will drive anyone nuts, even the Fed. Just do it! | 2015-09-09T15:46:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/09/the-case-for-raising/#comment-41550 |
| Yes. We can't have that attitude and be prosperous. | 2015-09-09T15:46:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41549 |
| I am still optimistic in the long run, but we still eat in the short run. We got this far from 2010, but we're more than halfway through it from what I can tell. | 2015-09-07T16:02:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41444 |
| This summarizes where we are pretty well, IMHO http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/09/04/the-august-jobs-report-in-nine-charts/ | 2015-09-07T16:01:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41443 |
| It really is a matter of labor being put at a disadvantage. I see that changing in the near future and that will be a good thing. But yes, we need government support to make that happen. Closing off borders to goods is one way to do that, but there are others. Consciously recognizing what it takes to make a flexible workforce - which is to say free education and good unemployment benefits while in school for a new trade - would be essentially the same thing. |
2015-09-07T16:01:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41441 |
| That is the problem today - money is far more mobile than people. And that will be the case from here out no matter what because even when you choose to be a migrant the connections needed to get a good job and the cost of moving around are still out of reach for most people. | 2015-09-07T15:16:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/07/labor-day-2/#comment-41437 |
| I think they will not raise the Fed Funds Rate in September, but remind everyone that December is a go. But there is still a slim chance that they will do what they should and raise it. |
2015-09-04T22:17:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/04/a-critical-weekend/#comment-41344 |
| I still think that as we get into a period where there is upward pressure on wages a lot of problems will solve themselves. There will be a net demand for immigrant talent and the trillion dollar per year gap will close. So if we just relax and do what we can to create an economy that works we'll be fine. So there. :-) | 2015-09-04T19:38:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/04/a-critical-weekend/#comment-41334 |
| That is basically what is happening. We now have an excuse and can sit around fretting about others while we do nothing. | 2015-09-04T19:36:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/04/a-critical-weekend/#comment-41333 |
| Fair enough - we shouldn't subsidize it like we do. But it does help civic unity and promote general well being. Sports are worth something, IMHO. | 2015-09-02T22:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41212 |
| I completely agree. You might as well enjoy it regardless. Packers fans may be the best in the league, but Steelers fans are also just great fun! | 2015-09-02T22:02:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41211 |
| The Vikings are not going to have a good year, I am sure of that. Sorry. | 2015-09-02T22:01:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41210 |
| Thanks! | 2015-09-02T15:21:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41184 |
| Every season we all get sucked in. But hey, it's a lot of fun. BTW, I used to really hate the Jets, but now I only really hate the Patriots. :-) Do we have that in common? For some reason, I never could hate the Bills, though. It's like they deserve something up there ... | 2015-09-02T15:21:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/09/02/a-hell-of-a-show/#comment-41183 |
| And don't annoy the staff if you really worry about it. :-) | 2015-08-31T20:33:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/31/the-idiot-diet/#comment-41109 |
| Some products are more gross than others. :-) | 2015-08-31T20:33:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/31/the-idiot-diet/#comment-41108 |
| That can be a problem for us all! | 2015-08-31T14:11:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/31/the-idiot-diet/#comment-41087 |
| Over the last 14 years we have averaged 4%. Adjusted for inflation it's nearly zero, however. A shorter time frame from say 2009 looks much better, like a 17% return. http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm Yes, it's best to just forget the day to day fluctuations. |
2015-08-28T14:48:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40984 |
| A very good point. I think there is a lot of good news, but it all seems to dissolve into worry and panic. What will it take to reverse that? Dunno. But bears do seem to rule the financial media right now. | 2015-08-28T14:46:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40983 |
| I love Fleck! He's kind of a perma-bear, always finding a reason for a crash, but as a short that's his biz. I saw some stuff maligning shorts again, as happens in every crash, but who else will keep the market honest? I know, no one can. But hey. I don't see a crash from them, but I do see a major war between the programmed traders. They can be manipulated, too. |
2015-08-28T14:32:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40979 |
| YES! I have never been one to fear China too much for exactly this reason. This will end in a similar way, too, when Chinese money comes to the US in search of a safe haven. Remember when Japan was buying real estate here, including Rockefeller Plaza? Caused quite a stir. The truth is probably not entirely sinister, I believe. Things are just evening out around the world and the process is messy. China has a rightful place in world leadership and assuming that is going to take a lot of ups and downs. We're about to see the limits of their centrally planned economy, IMHO. |
2015-08-28T14:05:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40977 |
| At least part of it is. As long as they have the dough to cram into it, they won't let it fall too much. In 2008 they ran out of options to be able to rig it. | 2015-08-28T14:03:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/28/drama-over-yet/#comment-40976 |
| Does a 3.7% jump in 2Q15 GDP say anything good? | 2015-08-27T19:43:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40939 |
| I have never said anything bad about Malaysia! I like that place. Needs a lot more democracy and openness, but they're going pretty far pretty fast. | 2015-08-27T19:42:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40938 |
| There's a lot here ... Should the Fed be more open or speak with one voice? I think we can say that this is a time of crisis, or at least one damned crisis after another, so there is a lot of value in one voice. But I still prefer this openness. The market as a thing is too monolithic, IMHO, and it should be more open in general - like a noisy, thick open air market. It used to be that way. Let the Fed reflect that, I say. As for Hillary faltering, well, a lot of them are faltering. The process has a lot of time to play out. China? I'm convinced that most of that nation is a big pile of ... mess. Their currency was never undervalued and you know that at the first chance all the billionaires over there will get as much the Hell out of there as fast as they can. The value of RMB should be roughly a measure of confidence in China, and I can't see any reason to be confident in that place. RMB? Feh. As for being ready for prime-time, I get the feeling that no one is. The world is run by a lot of amateurs these days. Merkel gets her way largely because she is the only competent person in all of freakin' Europe. Might as well let her run things - except for that weird love of austerity and deflation. If only the left would get its act together and at least have a good debate about where they need to go. Besides, what the Hell is this "Europe" as a thing anyways? They have serious existential problems that underly how they lope from one crisis to the next, from one dreary day of austerity to the next. |
2015-08-26T21:33:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40891 |
| Just about, yes. | 2015-08-26T16:31:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40883 |
| Yes, don't worry about it. We need to achieve some kind of equilibrium around the world before anything is stable, and we're not even close to that yet. | 2015-08-26T16:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40882 |
| Done more than the rest of the Gummint. | 2015-08-26T04:53:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40854 |
| That, too. | 2015-08-26T01:59:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40852 |
| But I'm convinced the USD will actually fall if there's a rate increase because it will kill the carry trade. That will bring money home. The logic is strange but we live in strange times. | 2015-08-26T00:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/26/about-that-rate-increase/#comment-40847 |
| You have every right to never forgive him for that as far as I'm concerned. That's just far beyond the pale. | 2015-08-25T16:30:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40817 |
| I'm not really impressed by Biden, either. Clinton's "sellout" doesn't bother me as much because she is a proven leader with real skills. Biden doesn't impress me as much. | 2015-08-25T03:03:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40772 |
| I think that Clinton can look like the centrist leader we need, but it's largely up to her. The propaganda against her is stunning, but I think she can do it. | 2015-08-25T03:02:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40771 |
| Thanks. We'll see how far the stock market goes down - and how Democrats can get their act together. | 2015-08-24T21:38:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40755 |
| To everything there is a season ... ours may indeed be coming. | 2015-08-24T14:53:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40743 |
| Sure, have a laugh at my expense. A year from now let's see who is laughing! :-) | 2015-08-24T03:12:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40725 |
| I let my bias show here, again, but in the past I've expressed my admiration for Sanders' fans. He is an experienced politician and he is a good guy, no doubt. We have good leaders and we need to let this play out, IMHO. | 2015-08-24T00:56:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/24/for-what-its-worth-2/#comment-40720 |
| Yes, it is. :-) | 2015-08-23T23:15:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40707 |
| Shop now instead! | 2015-08-23T15:24:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40691 |
| It's always best to not revel in the pain of others. Unless you're short, in which case you cackle quietly to yourself. | 2015-08-22T06:19:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40628 |
| The Dow causes nothing. Being and unbeing do not define markets. | 2015-08-22T06:19:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40627 |
| It will take more than two days to be sure, but this is getting brutal. | 2015-08-21T18:29:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40592 |
| No, I would never do that! :-) | 2015-08-21T17:49:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40590 |
| I would say that it's likely. I put it at 75% that a 10% correction is coming (counting the 2% we already had) and 50% that it's more like 20%. | 2015-08-21T16:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40584 |
| Yes, indeed. I think we can say for sure that more volatility is in the works. | 2015-08-21T16:02:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/21/stock-panic/#comment-40583 |
| If you're Catholic, every day is a holiday. :-) | 2015-08-19T22:06:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/19/womens-equality-day-2/#comment-40496 |
| Like a personal anniversary? :-) | 2015-08-19T22:05:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/19/womens-equality-day-2/#comment-40495 |
| Always the case, with just about everything. | 2015-08-19T22:05:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/19/womens-equality-day-2/#comment-40494 |
| You're still a majority of voters in nearly every election! | 2015-08-19T22:05:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/19/womens-equality-day-2/#comment-40493 |
| Thanks! And yes, if you apply this perspective the proper role for LRT becomes rather obvious. It supports high density within about 1/4 mile of where it is built, so you can go ahead and do that. I have an editorial coming out in the Community Reporter on this, but if for example we have LRT on railroad tracks and we can redevelop the ADM/Omaha site that would be a good place for a station and some higher density. It could play off the Brewery and gradually taper back a bit, just a bit, to Randolph. It would all make sense there. That is one way of thinking about all of this stuff and how to encourage a city that makes sense. I use the phrase "economically and aesthetically sustainable" for a good reason - I think they are the same thing. |
2015-08-17T21:20:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40401 |
| I do not rely on Ayn Rand for guidance in politics OR architecture. Or anything, really. :-) | 2015-08-17T20:48:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40394 |
| I should have put up a warning label: Crackpot Personal Theory Ahead! :-) Seriously, I know Opus among other developers thinks about this, but it has never been written down the way I did it. A city has to make sense in order to be stable, and density gradient is one way of thinking of that. Large projects in the middle of neighborhoods always fail eventually - and there's a good reason. They just don't belong. LRT can divide, yes, when it's done badly. There was no excuse for what happened on University. Even if you insist on LRT on that street it could have been done better. Mind you, if it was run down the middle of I-94 we could have constructed stations on the bridges at Snelling, Dale, Lexington, etc that bridged the "dead zone". They could have included some retail space like coffee huts. By doing so we could have erased the major gaps that separate St Paul along the freeway. I am saying that such a plan would have been good urban planning vs what was done by definition. Re-weaving the urban fabric and restoring an appropriate density gradient has to be a priority for all planning, IMHO. |
2015-08-17T20:48:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40393 |
| We can't remove freeways, but we can cover them. What I am saying here points to what should cover freeways, too - not open space, but development. Yes, the most prime land for development may be between the Capitol and Downtown! Strategic thinking has never ruled urban planning, despite many attempts by good people. But we do know a lot about what works and we are making progress. I do believe that a fairly light hand in planning is a good thing. It's a matter of creating the appropriate urban infrastructure - which naturally includes transit. Developers really don't try to do stupid things that often, at least not without massive subsidy. Without TIF, for example, Downtown St Paul would be a lot smaller and funkier. It's worth remembering. |
2015-08-17T20:44:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40391 |
| We need to re-weave the fabric left torn by the freeway construction. There is nothing more important for the city, IMHO. |
2015-08-17T16:35:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40382 |
| I think there is very much an upper bound, although some people do like living in high density towers. It's a matter of how much of that stuff there is from what I can see. A city should have a wide range of housing options and a lot of greenspace. It has to run from a lower density to a higher one, and what those two terms mean will vary from one city to the next. But a balance is always going to be important and that has to be respected if its going to remain stable. |
2015-08-17T15:12:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40379 |
| I think that's a bit harsh. What we see, IMHO, are a lot of project being done by people who are applying an ideology rather than responding to their environment. I'm calling for a better and wider feel for the city before asserting a development. | 2015-08-17T15:10:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/17/density-gradient/#comment-40378 |
| It did go forward, yes. I was wrong about that. But it is not producing the wave of development it was supposed to, even with additional subsidies from TIF and from foundations. Only a few projects are moving forward. Ridership is decent and people are starting to rely on it, so that's good for the line. It appears to be successful. I still say it could have been a lot more, however. |
2015-08-17T14:59:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2008/01/30/crazy-train/#comment-40376 |
| So far, we don't seem to have a system that is capable of doing that. I don't know what that would look like, honestly. | 2015-08-15T14:46:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40272 |
| A good comparison! | 2015-08-15T14:45:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40271 |
| Hold on, now - there's a "process" for that. :-) | 2015-08-14T19:14:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40230 |
| I don't think I am, either. But it's very, very early. | 2015-08-14T17:26:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40225 |
| That does seem to be true so far. He will need a lot more traction to get it and his team seems to be full of tired old retreads. | 2015-08-14T17:26:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40224 |
| Excellent. But I also want to know what's in it for him. Does he really think he can win? He may, given his personality, but I can't help but think that this isn't another promotional thing like a reality show. | 2015-08-14T17:25:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40222 |
| Fair enough all around. :-) Thanks for commenting, I think you have something here. | 2015-08-14T01:25:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40183 |
| I will admit my bias - I think Trump is a complete clown and the only redeeming feature about him is that he is completely unelectable. Having said that, I am sure that people supporting him want someone, somewhere to "tell it like it is" and not couch their language. I understand that. We've been in a Depression for 15 years and no one in power has yet to say the "D" word. That's ridiculous. The Iraq War was a farce. We've allowed spying on innocent citizens. Yes, there are reasons to want someone to speak up. But Trump just isn't that person. If someone better came along, someone not drunk on narcissism, that would be interesting. But I do understand why some percentage of the voters are so hungry for candor that they don't really care. That is the real tragedy here, IMHO. |
2015-08-14T01:13:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40181 |
| Fair enough. I also am very sure that Trump is capped at around 25% of the Republican vote no matter what, where Sanders could win the Democratic nod. | 2015-08-14T00:42:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/14/summer-of-discontent/#comment-40179 |
| Most things that a brilliant are a huge "duh!". :-) You are exactly right - cultivating a steady income stream is far more important than maximizing profit for any small business, and that's far from the only place where traditional economics tends to fail. They can say that this maximizes profit over the long haul, but I doubt it. And yes, it's entirely by feel because most small businesses are in a "people" biz! |
2015-08-13T15:55:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/12/people-not-a-machine/#comment-40155 |
| Thanks! | 2015-08-13T15:54:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/12/people-not-a-machine/#comment-40154 |
| It is, really, sociology. But very applied and directed. It makes a lot of sense - study what you are interested in and understand it before you decide what it is about or what it does! | 2015-08-13T15:52:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/12/people-not-a-machine/#comment-40153 |
| I read your comment and accidentally responded to it above! I tend to read all the comments before I respond to see where the discussion is going. This is a serious problem with this line of thinking, yes. We don't have a way of organizing the world to produce basic things that we need to survive. That is the flaw here. |
2015-08-11T15:20:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40043 |
| There will always be that basic economy. The idea that people will stop working for money, which BTW is inherent in Star Trek among other Sci-Fi works, has a real flaw in it that way. But beyond the basic economy, what is there? I don't know, honestly. Why would people work if not for money? |
2015-08-11T15:18:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40042 |
| As we define it, humans are not capital per se. We have a relationship between capital, labor, land, and thought to add the latter driver of technology to the Marxist way of looking at things. And yes, that part is more and more valuable all the time. Capital money is cheaper, land is being used more wisely, and labor is being done by machines. It's the mind that is the only scarce resource. I'll think that line of reasoning through some more. A very excellent point! One thing to add - you guys challenge me so wonderfully! This blog would be nothing without you! |
2015-08-11T15:17:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40040 |
| First point - excellent! What really is this thing called "capitalism"? Is it a system of exploitation or a natural way to maintain property and encourage work? I think it's just a a way of keeping track of resources, which is a neutral view overall. On the last point with Reich - this is so excellent I have to think about it some. You are right that there are some things in his agenda that are a bit dated feeling if you think about it from this perspective, but why? What is the alternative? Would action today in some form inhibit the changes we want to occur? I'll consider that, thank you! |
2015-08-11T15:14:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40039 |
| Thanks! | 2015-08-11T15:11:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/10/post-capitalist-pre-something/#comment-40038 |
| Reasonable. Well, maybe not in the case of Sen Cruz .... :-) | 2015-08-07T22:19:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/07/shows-over/#comment-39843 |
| A personal attack is a sure sign I hit a nerve, so thanks for the acknowledgement! | 2015-08-07T22:19:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/07/shows-over/#comment-39842 |
| Apparently, it does. I still think it's silly, though. :-) | 2015-08-07T22:19:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/07/shows-over/#comment-39841 |
| It's early - one or more of them will look Presidential at some point. | 2015-08-07T22:18:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/07/shows-over/#comment-39840 |
| Always listen to the kids! :-) Thanks for reading. :-) |
2015-08-07T00:11:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39787 |
| It will. | 2015-08-05T19:01:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39713 |
| That is low, but we are still way ahead of population growth. Yes, the population growth will go negative for the chart above by 2018. As it is, job growth is already ahead of the growth in the working age population. |
2015-08-05T14:35:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39703 |
| There will be more work when the money we have out there right now turns over a lot more often. The lack of money among the lowest wage earners has ruined the middle class prosperity of the golden age. | 2015-08-05T14:34:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39702 |
| I just went back to 1960 using the BLS data, which is close enough. The "hole", as you call it, from 2000 on, got as big as 4.5% of the population from that official recession and never got smaller than 3.23% in 2006. It opened up to 10.75% in 2010 (!!) and is now at 6.12% taking into account all the job loss since 2000. So if we assume 2000 is nirvana we can say that there is still a net deficit of 6%, which we're closing At this rate, we should have full employment by about 2018, so we're still on the mark for that - unless workers re-enter the workforce and the employment population ratio goes back up. But it shouldn't with the retirement wave coming. See this chart: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=249132&category_id= |
2015-08-05T02:49:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39680 |
| A lot has to fall in place, yes. But the pressure will be in the right direction. One thing I am leaving out - more Americans on Social Security. That will be the difference between this trip back to 60% of the population working and the last time. Taxes will have to cover that, but ... if wages are higher, it'll work out. That's what I'm calling. | 2015-08-05T02:46:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/05/demographics-is-still-destiny/#comment-39679 |
| That does seem to be true. We will see in a few years. | 2015-08-03T16:47:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/#comment-39597 |
| Yes, it does seem to be counter-productive all around. | 2015-08-03T16:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/#comment-39596 |
| I agree that a lot has to be thought through. The economic success of the 1950s was based on a family unit with one wage earner, meaning that many people relied on one income. That is still the case, but "family" units are often smaller now - one wage earner per family means we need a lot more jobs. And there is more than one wage earner in most families anyway. The downward pressure on wages has killed us, IMHO. I think that shows in the numbers. | 2015-08-03T16:46:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39595 |
| I am not sure about the progress indicator myself, so I'm not ready to endorse any new measurements yet. But yes, growth of the kind we measure is not likely to be here anyway and it probably doesn't need to be. If the 1% gets it all, what does it mean? My contention is that unless we have a real drive to better equity there will indeed be no growth, so it doesn't really matter. I am quite sure of this. Inequality is holding us back. |
2015-08-03T16:44:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/#comment-39594 |
| :-) I'm not sure we are consigned to a permanent sub-3.2% growth, but it is a possibility we should be prepared for. |
2015-08-03T16:42:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/08/03/growth-is/#comment-39593 |
| I won't argue with you here. If we all take a long deep breath and start doing what makes us happy and healthy we'll have a new and better economy shortly, because an economy is nothing more than a collection of people's real values. | 2015-08-02T20:18:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39538 |
| You are talking about a New Deal, and I've been in favor of this for about 8 years now! So, yes, let's give people a job rather than an unemployment check. As for the 70s, it does seem to be when the erosion started - and has continued to this day. That's also when a much higher percentage of adults started working, up from 58% 1947-1968 and climbing up to 68% by 2000. It's down to 63% now. I'm convinced there is only so much paid work to do in a developed economy, so more workers only suppresses wages at some point. That's what I think happened. And I have faith in the future because as Baby Boomers retire we'll go back to that 58% again shortly. |
2015-08-02T20:17:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39537 |
| You're no fun. | 2015-07-31T18:59:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39449 |
| ABSOLUTELY! There is no reason for employers to get stuck with that tab. I made a proposal for weaning us off this system in the post. I think it would make a higher minimum wage much more affordable and cause fewer side effects as a result. | 2015-07-31T04:11:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39409 |
| SSDI is another thing altogether, and it's just ridiculous how that has been allowed to be so mishandled. But thanks - I've been thinking about this for a while now and I feel like I finally have a handle on it. |
2015-07-31T01:54:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39401 |
| Yes, I honestly don't know what to make of that story. Yeesh. There are a LOT of details, like the ones you named, which we really need to think about. The ag exemption dates back to 1938, but is the reasoning still valid? I doubt it. I do believe that a lot of the low wage earners are indeed in service work, given how factory jobs still pay pretty well overall. This is one truly progressive movement I can sink my teeth into, yes. But I also want to say that I do think a compromise to lower the overhead per worker, making this much more affordable for businesses, is still a good idea. We don't want to distort the market towards automation and we also really want to get this passed. |
2015-07-31T01:53:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39400 |
| Thanks! | 2015-07-31T01:50:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/31/fight-for-15/#comment-39399 |
| The Otto Cycle piston engine 1880s technology that, despite updates, may be gasping its last soon. | 2015-07-29T22:04:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/29/end-quarterly-capitalism/#comment-39326 |
| Excellent point. But you agree with the principle - using what policy we have to focus on the longer term? | 2015-07-29T16:21:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/29/end-quarterly-capitalism/#comment-39296 |
| There is a lot of time left. Let's see where this goes ... | 2015-07-29T16:20:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/29/end-quarterly-capitalism/#comment-39295 |
| I think she is the real deal, but she really has to step up and provide the leadership we need, IMHO. | 2015-07-29T16:20:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/29/end-quarterly-capitalism/#comment-39294 |
| It certainly is! Very fascinating. Big cities with very distinct character, small towns, farmland - it's really got it all! Voting patterns are also all over the place, which makes it very important. Along with Ohio it pretty much decides the Presidential race. |
2015-07-27T16:06:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39188 |
| As I've written recently, I grew up in the South - or some weird parody of it. But my heritage is Pennsylvanian - far more than it is German or Irish or Scottish or any of the other places "my people" came from. In fact, as far as I can tell, "my people" come from good ol' Pennsy! | 2015-07-27T16:04:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39187 |
| Yes to all of that on PA. The Quakers were also very suspect because they were not supporters of the Revolution, meaning that they were perceived as Loyalists after the war. The Scotch Irish and Germans (my people!) took over the state then. Delaware - wow. Your piece reveals a lot of love to my eyes because you found someone else who cared about doing the right thing all the time. It's a great piece. I didn't know any of this! And yes, Peterson was a Republican. I miss people like that, I really do. And I want to learn a lot more about the Coastal Zone and how it was managed. And I also agree on what you call "bomb trains" - what a nightmare! |
2015-07-27T13:48:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39178 |
| Aren't we all? And what if it turned out that they were the peaceful, decent ones on the scene, eh? | 2015-07-27T13:41:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39176 |
| No, Delaware is a terrible place. Sorry, as a Pennsylvanian I'm compelled to raz ya. :-) You may find that you are responding to the inequities that you grew up with as much as anything. For example, Perdue still seems to run the state as a kind of "plantation" at times, and there is the whole duPont pandering to corporations history of the state. So it might actually define you, at least in how you respond to things. Then again, you do seem rather Pennsylvanian to me - you speak your mind and let the chips fall where they may. :-) |
2015-07-27T01:45:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39157 |
| That's the spirit! | 2015-07-27T01:43:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/27/an-ethnic-pennsylvanian/#comment-39156 |
| The chart doesn't lie! :-) | 2015-07-27T01:43:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/#comment-39155 |
| Which happens to a lot of 'em ... hey, gotta know the stuff. | 2015-07-24T22:10:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/#comment-39065 |
| It doesn't seem to track anything rational ... | 2015-07-24T22:10:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/#comment-39064 |
| Very much so. It's underlying value seems to be around $350 an ounce - everything above that is either fear or the "greater fool" concept at work. | 2015-07-24T15:35:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/24/fear-doesnt-glitter/#comment-39046 |
| Sounds reasonable, yes! | 2015-07-23T00:56:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38991 |
| It is the only thing we can do when things get too emotional. It also stops all public debate, which is kind of bad, but even that is better than highly hateful/frightened responses. | 2015-07-23T00:55:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38990 |
| Yes, that's the real problem, IMHO. | 2015-07-23T00:55:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38989 |
| It did deflate the situation very quickly, didn't it? They only have power when they can make people afraid or nervous. Wasn't the case with the accompaniment. | 2015-07-23T00:54:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38988 |
| Sounds like an excellent approach! | 2015-07-23T00:53:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/22/fight-it-with-funny/#comment-38987 |
| Yeah, well ... | 2015-07-21T20:31:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38940 |
| A good point! If capital requirements are $20k for $120k in output that's 16%. Back in 1970 it was $8.5k for $67k or less than 13%. | 2015-07-20T16:01:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38907 |
| I'll try to be more moderate on 2017, but I am bullish and see all the signs of a turnaround! As for the Saudis, you have a point - be careful what we wish for! | 2015-07-20T15:56:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38906 |
| I have to admit that my prediction for Saudi Arabia is based in part on wishful thinking, but they really are screwing up. I see a nation that has always made a deal to gain control of things now more interested in bullying and forcing their way. That will not suit them, especially not in the Arab world. They must have a lot of people cheering for their downfall by now. | 2015-07-20T15:54:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38905 |
| Europe is a joke. The sooner the Saudis get what's coming to them the better. I hope you are right about productivity but with all this going on in the world I can't see that the US doesn't have a lot to worry about. | 2015-07-20T14:34:03+00:00 | DJ Samuelson | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/20/crisis-and-calm/#comment-38900 |
| Yes, bless him! | 2015-07-20T02:36:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38891 |
| As long as there is demand ... :-) | 2015-07-20T01:20:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38889 |
| I don't see the capital controls being lifted right away in China, but gradually over a period of a few years. The correction comes as profits take a beating because investment goes up. Right now, companies have been milking their profits and sitting on cash - or, at least, they were. A correction will come logically as they set up for investment in the future, which they do appear to be doing - if slowly. So the timing is a correction before October, Chinese money coming in after that to make the correction short lived, and a real bull starting not before 2017 as the fruits of the investment start coming in. That suggests, again, that Europe turns around or is at least not looking like a basket case by then. That's the worst part of this bet from what I can tell. The real bull can't possibly start until there has been more investment and it starts to bear fruit (literally, creating an economic "spring") so there is a lot of delay in here. My investment advice is to look for high PE companies that are taking a beating on earnings because they are investing in themselves. But, as always, you can't time this because the horizons will be longish. | 2015-07-17T03:35:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38804 |
| The setup comes before 2015. We need a market correction I think before we can settle into the right pattern. But there is a chance for more capital investment. It didn't make it into this post, but capital investment is coming back after the 2009 dive. That's the key. With that comes hiring, and eventually full employment. We have to see that come around 2017, as I've said, and the capital investment is right on track for that. The real trick is for all this to occur and to maintain a low inflation regime. I think the retiring Boomers will help with that. If interest rates can remain historically low we have a real shot at a high PE start to the bull market. Again, I'm not dismissing Mauldin's work. It's good. But there is a way past this, I think, into a real bull. It would be nice if we had some support from Congress and Europe in this, too. That's the really ugly part. |
2015-07-17T03:11:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38802 |
| We are talking about individual investors, not the government. I expect a flight to quality at the first chance they get. They will be investing in a way to protect capital first, but that could be the spark that ignites a bull market and investment for gain. It's all a bit ironic in a way, but I see this as the spark. More on the next comment. |
2015-07-17T03:08:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/17/bear-or-bull/#comment-38801 |
| Here's another thing - with about $2.8T in capital investment, the roughly 10M unemployed (by U6) need a net bump of $200B in additional capital investment, or a net increase of 7%. It's actually do-able. | 2015-07-16T21:19:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38782 |
| OK, I think we're totally on the same page here. Since you got all progressive there, I'll have to allow that I really do think this is all about the market for labor and there being too many workers for the available jobs, keeping wages low. As for investment per worker, I put together this graph: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=246736&category_id= I don't know what, if anything, it really means, but I can tell you that the net investment per worker has gone up 4X since 1947, and aside from some nasty bumps along the way it's rather linear. The recent dips seem to follow the job loss, so it implies that each worker needs a net investment of about $20k worth of equipment today and that investment in capital does create jobs more than it destroys them. I think, that is ... not entirely sure yet. |
2015-07-16T21:15:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38781 |
| Hey, I was wondering about something. Does a lower rate for capital skew production towards automation, or is it more likely that all capital investment needs someone to run the thing and therefor low capital cost still encourages employment? I'm wondering if you have found anything good on the relationship between the two. I think I don't even know what to search for. Thanks! |
2015-07-15T22:16:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38750 |
| I have come around to that thinking as well. One of the reasons I support a high speed rail system, for example, is that the more we can improve access for US manufacturers to the US market while reducing inventory the more jobs we can create making things for our market. It's not always a matter of cost, after all, but a matter of customization and fashion. Speed matters, and the better our high-speed infrastructure the better our advantage in our own market vs the big containers coming from overseas. Having said that, free trade does help as developing nations pick up. But that's a long-term thing that should not be our bread and butter, IMHO. |
2015-07-15T16:10:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38734 |
| Thanks! I don't know what you mean about the comment page, can you elaborate? | 2015-07-15T16:07:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38733 |
| It's not that I don't think there is a skills gap, it's that it seems to be very different than people think. The old industrial model was based on learning a good foundation in school and then getting an entry level job where you would gain experience and learn. That doesn't happen anymore. Companies are so slow to hire that when they do it's only for a very specific, immediate need. They don't invest in employees because there is no loyalty - which works both ways. Also, we are in a rapidly changing economy, meaning that there will be a skills gap given that it takes time for people to learn how to navigate what's out there. That can only be closed by time and there is little that can be done policy-wise to correct it. So we have to ride that one out, IMHO. Is there a skills gap? Yes, I think the evidence is there. But we can't solve it through the old model of "let's educate the kids in what they need today." It will take a commitment to lifelong learning, business investment in employees, and an acknowledgement that some skills are just hard to obtain immediately. |
2015-07-15T16:07:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38732 |
| Exactly. There may be a lot more to it, but that is my place to start. | 2015-07-15T16:03:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38730 |
| Agreed that this has to be as global as possible when we make changes, but I think there's a lot we can do on our own. The less overhead per employee the cheaper our employees seem regardless of currency exchange, cost of living, etc. That must be a priority, IMHO. It's very clear that labor is at a disadvantage in the US right now and anything we can do to even the score is going to help. | 2015-07-15T16:02:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/15/tax-profits-not-labor/#comment-38729 |
| First time I've been accused of being wealthy. Can I just say that it would be nice, or so it seems? | 2015-07-13T23:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38660 |
| Postscript - Looking at the last graph, I think I can say that there are indeed important inflection points in 1965 and 1982. GDP per worker, which is to say "productivity", increased from $45k to $67k between 1947 and 1965, or $1.2k per year. From 1965 to 1982 it only increased $0.5k per year. After that, it returned to $1.3k per year where it has been ever since, more or less. The inflection points in 1965 and 1982 are important because we know they are business cycles. They are the start of the economic Summer and Fall, to use Kondratieff terms. But what about the big cycle, changing to Winter in 2000? Productivity growth did not fall largely because though GDP isn't rising as quickly there are also fewer workers. This may be a feature of Depressions, and sadly we don't have this kind of data going back to about 1900. But it makes some sense to me, as this high rate of productivity keeps a lid on inflation and really sets up the Spring that we know is due around 2017. So what happens if we keep this productivity gain rate and hire more people? Prosperity for all! But what if we keep it and redistribute wealth differently - which is to say go back to one wage earner per family, cut hours, etc? A few things to read on the topic: The Year Everything Changes: http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/ Forward! 2015 & Beyond: http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/ And this interesting piece in the Washington Post on Bernie Sanders - more equity, even if it means less growth: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/13/what-bernie-sanders-is-willing-to-sacrifice-for-a-more-equal-society/ My take, in the end? We don't have a problem with productivity growth, but we clearly have a problem with inadequate demand for the products we are producing. We either need more demand, fueled by more money in the hands of the working and poor (or perhaps more open trade with the rest of the world?) or we need to accept lower growth. Either way, I believe greater equity HAS to be in the cards by the time 2020 rolls around. Either we work to master it or the market will do it for us. "Tax profits, not labor!" remains a starting point for me as a way to create more jobs, but a shorter work week may be necessary as well. Consider this a lead-in to what I write next. :-) |
2015-07-13T21:03:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38653 |
| On automation, I think we generally agree. Although, as I've often said, today's productivity gains are tomorrow's unemployment. As for the potential "skills gap", there is evidence that there is such a thing but it can all be explained by other things. I happen to believe that it's real if for no other reason than we live in a rapidly changing economy (and really have since the 1970s, more or less) which will always have problems like that. |
2015-07-13T20:38:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38651 |
| Yes, I'm one of the elite as a pale male. But there's still always room for raw numbers, not people. They tell stories on their own if you let them talk. | 2015-07-13T19:58:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38649 |
| Yes, that's pretty much it. :-) | 2015-07-13T19:27:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38646 |
| OK, automation is definitely part of it. The reason I was hedging is that I know it's not all of what's going on. A higher percent of the economy in finance, for example, has higher output per employee than manufacturing. | 2015-07-13T19:27:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38645 |
| Empirically it seems to be a good balance, yes. Would more be better? I'll look up Germany and a few other places that seem to be highly equitable. Germany seems to sustain a higher level of employment than most nations, for one, which is interesting. | 2015-07-13T19:25:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38644 |
| Agreed. It's a bit better than it was and that seems to be keeping people from outright rioting. The gains of the 1990s were really good, but not good enough - and they haven't continued in the numbers necessary to sustain another rise. That will take the Boomers retiring among other things. | 2015-07-13T19:24:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38643 |
| Yes - this was set forward by the same business cycle that started in 1965. There are so many effects from the end of the immediate postwar cycle that it's hard for me to tease them out, but the abandonment of the Gold Standard and the new global currency regime that came with that is a very important turning point. In economic cycle terms outlined by Kondratieff, we moved from an economic Spring into a Summer about 1965. That turned to Fall in 1983 and then back to Winter about 2000. Each season has it's own ups and downs, but we can see the patterns. This new Spring, which I expect in 2017, will have its own patterns. But what I hope for more than anything is a renewal along the lines of the last one - and a return to what worked so well then. I can send some links to the theory that 2017 or so is the Year Everything Changes. |
2015-07-13T19:23:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38642 |
| My contention is that a lot of this just happens for reasons that we really cannot explain, at least not while they are happening. It takes years of looking back to realize what mistakes were made and by who. But something very much did change in the 1970s, we can be sure of that. | 2015-07-13T13:19:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38623 |
| There is no doubt there was a big change around 1964-5 in business cycles. It's definitely worth looking at credit and how it expanded at that time. | 2015-07-13T13:17:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/13/broken-social-contract/#comment-38622 |
| There's enough talk about cis and trans in the nooze these daze. :-) | 2015-07-10T20:15:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38526 |
| Thanks! | 2015-07-10T15:47:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38520 |
| Yes, it is. | 2015-07-10T15:47:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38519 |
| The developed world is aging, and as a result consuming less. The generations behind them are not as voracious and tend to be more interested in value rather than mass quantities. The same appears to be true of developing nations, where new wealth is being put into savings more than it is following the consumption patterns of the developed world. The net result is a drop in demand - part of the definition of a "Depression" which we have seen since 2000. I believe that some of this will continue, but a new economy based more on software - that is non physical things that make our lives better. |
2015-07-10T14:48:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38513 |
| I didn't say much about Venezuela, but they are the ones holding down the region at this point. It would be good to see some resolution out of there soon. | 2015-07-10T13:59:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38508 |
| Thanks! (I think ...) :-) | 2015-07-10T13:59:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38507 |
| I think the world economy is a lot stronger than it was in 2007-2008, so I don't see anything bad happening. But ... you never know. | 2015-07-10T13:58:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38506 |
| Generally, yes. One region no more than the others, I'd guess. | 2015-07-10T00:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/10/chinese-meltdown-latin-america-next/#comment-38489 |
| That is a good place to start, yes. | 2015-07-08T19:19:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38435 |
| I used the "held by public" figure, which is only 71%. The Federal Reserve owns a lot of our debt. In retrospect, I should count that, too. | 2015-07-08T13:52:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38428 |
| The stock market is melting away the gains of the last year - and maybe more. It's not quite what we expected a year ago given how much it's run up since then, but cheap money created a tremendous bubble there, too. | 2015-07-08T13:49:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38427 |
| They have been generous with the public pensions, etc. That's very true. But it was all extended with a lot of debt they were allowed to run up for over 20 years, and they should never have been loaned all that money. | 2015-07-08T13:48:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38426 |
| Encouraging saving in a bank is not a bad idea for shoring up banks generally, yes. | 2015-07-08T13:47:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/08/banks-amok-perhaps-not/#comment-38425 |
| Unless they really hate their jobs. :-) | 2015-07-07T21:19:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38388 |
| And what kind of regulation makes sense? As far as I can tell, I'm the first person to use the phrase "Banking should be boring". Maybe it should be more or less on autopilot for reasons of transparency? Dunno. I also have work to do, but this is a good area to think about, generally. |
2015-07-07T14:55:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38382 |
| Fair enough. I was thinking the same thing. If the topic at hand is the role of banking in a democratic society, there are many ways of looking at it. Public debt is one component of the issue, for sure. There are others such as the large number of people who are "unbanked", which I have written about. There's a place for economic literacy, too. I was thinking about writing about this today. I hope I have time to try to pull this all together. What, indeed, does a free and open society need in the way of banking in this new economy? |
2015-07-07T14:26:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38380 |
| Thanks! | 2015-07-07T13:53:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38377 |
| A good article, if written from a distinct political point of view (which I try to avoid). Let me try to boil all of this down, if I may. When we talk about Greece, or really every nation at this point, we're talking about the corrosive effects of a large public debt load. This article reasonably calls out the threat to democracy imposed by all that debt - and indeed how modern economies have been run for the last 50 years or so. The call for a closed economy with barriers to entry I'll leave aside for a bit and focus on the problems with debt which everyone has. I completely agree that the dialogue with the Greek people about their future dealing with this somehow is absolutely critical. The other problem that I've been focused on is how such a large debt load can be managed economically, which is to say without a terrible burden on everyone in the end. It's really the same problem expressed in a different way. The short version is that debt is not being managed in a way that is consistent with any of our beliefs and values anywhere in the world. So how do we manage it? What really went wrong? |
2015-07-07T13:52:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38376 |
| Debt is indeed where it's at these daze. It's not always a bad thing, but even when it's done for the right reasons (investment, infrastructure) too much of a good thing is a bad thing. | 2015-07-06T21:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38344 |
| Are we next? Certainly, we're in a similar situation - although our debt is less than half theirs as a share of GDP (72% vs 161%). We also cannot either tax, cut, or grow our way out - it must take a combination of all three. But our supply of OPM (Other People's Money), the real OPiuM of the world, is a lot more limitless as long as the global standard reserve currency remains the US Dollar. That can't hold forever, but it will for at least a little while longer. Yes, we do have a serious problem, though not as bad as Greece. And as I've said many times before we have to confront it before it turns into .... this .... |
2015-07-06T18:43:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38338 |
| Yes, indeed. | 2015-07-06T18:40:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38337 |
| I believe they still have credit cards, but the banks are closed at least through Wednesday at this point. My understanding is that they had an active barter system operating even before this, so we can only imagine what's going on now. | 2015-07-06T18:40:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38336 |
| Good schtick at the start. :-) I think Varoufakis has led the financial equivalent of guerrilla war and, as a practitioner, hit and run. Greece clearly believes they have a stronger hand than anyone else does and that the risk of default will bring the creditors to the table on more favorable terms. I do agree that more default is necessary, but it is best for everyone that it happen in an orderly way. So far the creditors are not allowing that to happen. |
2015-07-06T18:40:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38335 |
| This may well be the right thing to do. But as noted in the article, Costa Rica paid a short-term price for default that was extremely painful. People do have to eat every day - and when you're not sure what will come tomorrow that gnawing feeling in the pit of your stomach will try patience far more than anything else. We really don't know what will come of this. That unknown is far worse than anything in the minds of investors and in the stomachs of hungry people. The standoff is going to continue, that much we know. The rest? I can't say. Do we need to bring banks to heal? I would say that yes, they have too much power in the world today. That power is measured directly in the amount of debt that is owed to them. The systems of the world need to reduce debt through a Jubilee before a disorderly default occurs, IMHO. I've been saying that for several years now. |
2015-07-06T02:41:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38319 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-07-06T02:37:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38318 |
| Thanks! | 2015-07-06T02:37:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/06/oxi-means/#comment-38317 |
| Thank you! | 2015-07-06T00:22:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38307 |
| Amen! | 2015-07-06T00:22:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38306 |
| We still have a remarkable nation, but it can always be better. I would hope we would all want to keep at it, even if it is never perfect. | 2015-07-06T00:21:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38305 |
| We should all do our best to represent our best. It's just common courtesy! But this applies more when abroad, in my view. It may not be fair that people generalize about an entire nation from one experience, but we all do. | 2015-07-06T00:20:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38304 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-07-06T00:19:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/03/fly-the-flag-3/#comment-38303 |
| More on this now that we have a "No". It's serious now. | 2015-07-06T00:19:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38302 |
| Far too interesting, I think. | 2015-07-06T00:18:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38301 |
| If I can summarize part of what you're saying - "When you owe the bank a thousand dollars, you have a problem, But when you owe the bank a billion dollars, the bank has a problem." :-) Yes, this is complicated for the EU. They really can't "kick Greece out" of MU, but Greece can make them look bad. That's why Tsipras thinks he has better cards, I guess. But the ECB just isn't blinking - they appear to be made of Greek Marble. |
2015-07-02T20:09:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38229 |
| As long as the EU doesn't fall over this, it'll be OK. You realize that buried in that €360B in debt is the roughly €15B tab for the 2004 Olympics - plus interest. |
2015-07-01T23:42:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38185 |
| It is a mess. But I think it will clear up very soon. This can't continue. | 2015-07-01T16:03:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38173 |
| I do not see how that deal is still on the table. And yes, it seems like a surrender - those polls that showed "yes" winning must have spooked them. | 2015-07-01T16:02:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38172 |
| That does seem to be the case. As for floating a new currency, I completely agree - I cannot imagine how that could possibly work. | 2015-07-01T16:01:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38171 |
| Thanks! I think there is plenty of room for the reader to make up their own mind on this. I have in the past expressed my support for Tsipras and the approach of finding a Greek way out of this - which is to say not just groveling at the feet of Germany and begging them for guidance. There has to be an element of growth for this to work, and that has to be a Greek plan. They can do it. However, in the short term there is a huge crisis that has to be passed to avoid a meltdown. I think Tsipras' desire to take this to the wall has not been a good process at all and it has created damage. But that's not the point right now - it's about getting everyone through this to the other side. To me, that's a very objective situation that requires definite action. |
2015-07-01T16:01:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38170 |
| I would guess that little has changed. It's probably cheaper overall, especially if you are coming at this with US Dollars - the Euro is really in the trash right now and should only go lower. I would guess that if you bring lots of cash Euros you will be treated like royalty! |
2015-07-01T15:58:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/07/01/qa-on-greece/#comment-38169 |
| I do expect a lot more populism in the next few election cycles, but it's always hard to tell how it will catch on. | 2015-06-30T14:13:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38102 |
| Scalia has used the phrase "jiggery pokery" in one of his dissents. It is a strange term used to describe an elaborate deception, essentially a 3-card Monte kind of situation. The video is of Sandy Squirrel saying, "No more jiggery pokery!" from episode 223, "The Smoking Peanut". Yes, I remember a lot of SpongeBob. :-) |
2015-06-29T16:28:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38039 |
| It's a Democratic Republic - and through our history we've been more D one generation and more R the next. But, yes, generally we're more on the R side. But I completely agree with your assessment of what we need to do as a people, especially if we're going to be more Democratic in the future. Life is indeed far too short and if we don't focus on what makes us happy we'll all be stuck in the insane rat race working for someone else's dreams. Amen, brother. |
2015-06-29T15:06:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38035 |
| I would just ignore the far right people - I doubt they will get anywhere. Right now, we have a court that clearly has a renewed interest in taking charge of the situation, and it appears to be coming from frustration. I would say to that, "Welcome to the club". But there is reason to fear more power at the top and Scalia's point, at least in this case, is very valid. | 2015-06-29T15:04:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38034 |
| Where you got me was talking about "The Big Picture"(tm). That's what I think is completely missing on the left for far too long, and it's why I posted the work of Robert Reich without editing. We need this. I do think that at the end of this Depression we are at a major turning point. The economy is changing rapidly, and with it a lot of social structure. A new generation is going to start taking over as Baby Boomers retire. Where are we? Where are we going? There's a lot to work through - and if we don't do it together I have no idea how we'll have anything that works. |
2015-06-29T15:02:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38032 |
| That is an interesting way to look at it, but I doubt that members of the court look at themselves as servants of a ruling class. In the case of Citizens United, I was impressed by Roberts' opinion, naive as he was on enforcement. He had a point, and I don't want to discount it out of hand. I would very much like to see that go back to the court because I do think they have changed today. Scalia? Mostly a crank, yes. But ... we are seeing a much more activist court suddenly - without a lot of warning. It's worth taking note of. |
2015-06-29T14:31:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/29/scalia-scowls-take-notice/#comment-38029 |
| Thank you! | 2015-06-26T21:39:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/26/glory-hallelujah/#comment-37875 |
| A good point. We should question their loyalty first and foremost. | 2015-06-26T21:38:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/26/glory-hallelujah/#comment-37874 |
| Racism is indeed everywhere. In the South I feel there are indeed people who have been through the worst and as such are the very best at talking through it and overcoming it. But the scene still carries many things like the Rebel Flag that encourage racism more than anywhere else. Getting through that will only bring out the best, at least in the long run. My experience growing up in court ordered desegregation shows that affirmative action to stop racism really does work. | 2015-06-26T14:17:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/26/glory-hallelujah/#comment-37857 |
| Electrical and Computer Engineering or ECE now at most schools. :-) But seriously, there is work of all kinds to be done. We all do better when we all do better, which is to say that when everyone can reach their full potential of productivity and happiness we all live in a more productive and happy world. For some people, that's installing or physically making something. For some people that's thinking and designing. For some it's inspiring and leading. Each role is important and each needs people who can do their best. That takes education and opportunity. | 2015-06-25T17:12:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/24/a-new-democratic-platform/#comment-37802 |
| Reich has not endorsed anyone, and he speaks far more about Sanders than Clinton at this point. I would hope that he could influence Clinton and her team. You and I are on the same page with respect to this platform, as I said above. It is at the very least where the Democratic Party needs to start. The election is a great time to work very hard to sell this to the public and build a national consensus on these issues. |
2015-06-24T17:14:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/24/a-new-democratic-platform/#comment-37738 |
| Yes, I didn't say much, did I? :-) The short answer is that Reich takes everything a bit further than I would, but I support everything he says in principle for sure. I would like to see something more for employers in here as part of a bargaining chip - for example, I am still working on what it would mean if we adopted the mantra "Tax profits, not labor" - how can we reduce the overhead per employee to make higher wages, specifically the minimum wage, more palatable? But as an opening position from the Democratic side of the debate I think that Reich has done something absolutely wonderful. If this is what we debate and move towards compromise and consensus on we will do allright. |
2015-06-24T17:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/24/a-new-democratic-platform/#comment-37737 |
| We have to strengthen the bargaining power of labor one way or the other. Right now, working people are at a terrible disadvantage and are simply not getting their fair share of the pie. Some of that will work itself out in a tighter labor market, which as you know I believe is coming as Baby Boomers retire, but that alone is still not enough. | 2015-06-24T17:09:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/24/a-new-democratic-platform/#comment-37736 |
| Pluralism in society makes it very hard for people to express their own feelings about inspiration without the risk of offending someone. That does lower the overall public display of inspiration and spirituality. | 2015-06-22T20:49:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/22/pop-inspiration/#comment-37650 |
| I believe that people will always need inspiration of some kind. Communism, while atheistic, was built on inspirational messages more than most things! | 2015-06-22T20:48:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/22/pop-inspiration/#comment-37649 |
| People do like to be famous, which seems very odd to me as well. It's hardly "inspirational" to me. | 2015-06-22T20:47:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/22/pop-inspiration/#comment-37648 |
| Maybe? | 2015-06-20T05:05:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37530 |
| That does seem to be the case, yes. | 2015-06-19T21:39:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37514 |
| The "deal" with China in 2000 was apparently very one-sided, so there's at least some precedence for your position. I can't say I totally disagree. The Obama admin says this one will be different - much more progressive. I really would like to know what that means - but of course we can't know that yet. | 2015-06-19T21:39:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37513 |
| That seems to be what's happening. | 2015-06-19T21:37:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37512 |
| Thanks. A lot of news stories are just throwing around acronyms lately. It's really tough to get a grip on this. | 2015-06-19T21:37:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/19/tpp-a-slow-death/#comment-37511 |
| Set the style for many years ... | 2015-06-18T15:14:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/12/rockstar-2/#comment-37476 |
| Not really, it's a free market thing. Rent goes up, food goes up, gasoline goes up, etc. Raising the minimum wage would help life everyone, but in a weak job market it would be tough to do. I expect the job market to improve dramatically in the next two years, but that's an eternity when you don't have the scratch to pay the rent *this* month. | 2015-06-17T17:53:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37426 |
| Where we stand now, we'll find out in an hour. :-) Betting money right now is forward guidance for a rate hike in September without one right now. I still think we should have a small one now to show the markets who is boss. It's hard to say the stock market is properly valued no matter how you look at it. | 2015-06-17T17:04:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37424 |
| A good point - what is the state of jobs 5.5 years after the trough? I will get on that. | 2015-06-17T17:03:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37423 |
| It does seem to be part of a general trend, yes. It's just one step up from the "gig economy" we've talked about before. | 2015-06-17T17:03:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37422 |
| That is the real problem - wages are not keeping up with the cost of living. The part time work problem is secondary, but worrisome all the same if it keeps growing. | 2015-06-17T17:02:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/17/part-time-work-revisited/#comment-37421 |
| I am definitely not one, no ... | 2015-06-15T20:54:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37292 |
| I generally agree, but he has a large body of work standing up for the marginalized. He has yet to crystallize it into a solid plan, however. | 2015-06-15T17:41:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37279 |
| I have something coming up from Robert Reich that I think will be far more interesting than what Sanders says. And he's a Clinton supporter. | 2015-06-15T17:40:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37278 |
| That may well happen. I do think that in the end Sanders' agenda will be adopted by Clinton and there will be unity - in fact, this may be a bit of a show being put on. But what matters now is that young people in particular are responding very well to the message. | 2015-06-15T14:04:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37268 |
| I wrote about some of these things in 2008, but a real movement never materialized. We just got Obama. So, yes, way past time. | 2015-06-15T14:00:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/15/a-new-generations-time/#comment-37267 |
| I think van Beethoven had similar fans in his day. But yes, Prince is a very good example of this tradition carrying on. I think we can see it in a lot of other artists, too, but not every one. Katy Perry, for example, always smiles and seems to really enjoy what she does. | 2015-06-12T15:16:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/12/rockstar-2/#comment-37138 |
| It's a bit silly to insist on a definitive answer, but I staked my claim. There was indeed an evolution. Handel was very popular late in life with his operas and specifically Messiah, and had a huge following. Haydn was stunned by the huge crowds that greeted him in London, making him something of a rockstar as well. I think Josh made the case for Mozart very well. But only van Beethoven was never an employee of a single patron. He was the first to make his entire career as a freelancer. And the image that he crafted was not only critical to making that happen, it's still with us 200 years later. Things were moving very quickly at this time in the transition to a more open, popular kind of music for the masses. Just a little later we have Rossini - what if he was the model for a successful artist? And he not only had a huge following, he became very rich. But through it all remained a joyful, funny man. |
2015-06-12T15:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/12/rockstar-2/#comment-37137 |
| Mozart almost made it. Almost. He would have been van Beethoven's teacher if he hadn't died, too. A lot of this is about timing, and Mozart was born just a bit too soon to be able to turn the corner and really make it as a freelance artist. He is certainly another image of "rockstar", but in the end the joyous Mozart as an icon or archetype was eclipsed by the tragic figure. Yes, I blame van Beethoven in part for that image. People only had an archetype for Mozart as one who spoke for the angels after he died, and thus didn't appreciate him enough in his life. But you do have a valid point all the same. :-) |
2015-06-12T05:38:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/12/rockstar-2/#comment-37121 |
| It's hard for me to see this, too, but if I'm right about the big turnaround in 2017 she may seem like a great leader by default. :-) | 2015-06-09T15:06:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/08/women-wielding-power/#comment-37003 |
| Excellent! | 2015-06-09T15:06:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/08/women-wielding-power/#comment-37002 |
| Most don't. :-) I do think this is less about what women are innately than the system that creates a different kind of leader, however. But if you want to argue that women are innately different leaders in a lot of ways, including less ego, it's hard to dismiss that. | 2015-06-09T15:06:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/08/women-wielding-power/#comment-37001 |
| I think you are absolutely correct | 2015-06-09T15:05:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/08/women-wielding-power/#comment-37000 |
| I think you are completely correct. Let's set up a timeline for the turnaround: Step 1: Jobs available (check!) Step 2: Employers are willing to cultivate young people to develope skills (not there yet!) Step 3: Employers have to pay to keep those employees there (later!) Give it until 2017, I say. We're getting there. |
2015-06-09T15:04:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36999 |
| A good guess, but what if I told you this is measured? :-) This is called the "quits rate", and it's one of the things that Fed Chair Yellen says she is watching as a sign the economy is picking up. It did indeed hit a terrible low in 2009, and is back about halfway to where it was in 2000. http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/ http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/ So, yes, you are right! But it is slowly getting better. |
2015-06-09T15:03:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36998 |
| Thanks! | 2015-06-05T15:51:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36773 |
| It's always a vague "technology" gap, which astounds me. There are plenty of young people with good tech skills, but they don't have experience. I honestly think that companies have to start hiring young people and cultivating them to grow with their company and stop insisting on a high level of expertise in new areas. One article I did not use might be illuminating here. While there is a lot of debate as to whether there is a "skills gap" at all, this article focuses on the role of a changing economy and the need for business to step up and do its part. https://hbr.org/2014/08/employers-arent-just-whining-the-skills-gap-is-real |
2015-06-05T15:51:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36772 |
| You are most welcome! | 2015-06-05T15:48:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36771 |
| Importing skills is one solution to whatever the problem really is, but I can't see this as a long-term solution. As you say, they are essentially indentured servants - tied completely to their job. That's not good for anyone. | 2015-06-05T15:48:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/05/not-hiring-but-not-firing/#comment-36770 |
| You make a good point. It may not have any real meaning. I am thinking about Gross Output (GO), which I wrote a piece about last August: http://erikhare.com/2014/08/01/new-measures-for-new-times/ This has the advantage of including semi-finished goods which are exported (ie, "Intermediate Inputs" or II). If you graph that and use a Year over Year change instead of quarter by quarter, you have this graph: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=240792&category_id= I think this is the best indicator of health we have. Gross output is gaining 4% per year, averaged over the last year. |
2015-06-01T18:52:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/01/gdp-down-take-it-with-a-little-seasoning/#comment-36590 |
| I think that's a little strong, but it is hard to say "GDP is ..." with any conviction. | 2015-06-01T18:43:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/01/gdp-down-take-it-with-a-little-seasoning/#comment-36589 |
| I know there have to be better numbers out there which are nothing more than the sum total of all goods and services, but I can't find them. People in the big banks do nothing but keep track of this stuff, but it's all proprietary. I am looking to see what kind of information I do have access to, but it's not at all obvious. We do need more raw numbers, yes. |
2015-06-01T16:11:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/01/gdp-down-take-it-with-a-little-seasoning/#comment-36578 |
| Aren't you a lot of fun? I'll just let you know that your assumptions about me are wrong and leave it at that. Whatever your problem is .... well, it's your problem. You're pretty far off the mark on my own shortcomings, though as a human there are always some. If you'd like to talk about the economy and the (grossly) imperfect ways we measure it, I'll still be here for that. |
2015-06-01T14:15:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/06/01/gdp-down-take-it-with-a-little-seasoning/#comment-36574 |
| Thanks! | 2015-05-29T03:07:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36493 |
| A very good point. If the net income from an area is declining, that's an important part of GDP. | 2015-05-28T17:42:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36485 |
| I have to admit I don't necessarily get it, either. I would prefer that it was a simple sum of everything, non adjusted. | 2015-05-28T17:42:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36484 |
| A very good point. I will see if non-adjusted GDP is available for comparison. I don't think a lot of things are adjusted. But what is? | 2015-05-28T17:40:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36483 |
| The software world does seem to be going both ways at once right now. I think it should generally be a capital item, which is to say purchased. I don't like the licensing / service model. It seems to me it is purchased like a capital good in most uses. | 2015-05-28T17:39:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/27/what-is-software-worth/#comment-36482 |
| You are absolutely correct that law and practice are always two different things. We have big problems with this in the US as well, especially when it comes to a well armed police force. | 2015-05-26T17:49:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36431 |
| Amen, brother! :-) There is a big generational change coming, and it is very much underway. We'll see it pop up in odd places before it becomes a big wave, but I think we can see it coming generally. | 2015-05-26T17:48:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36430 |
| I can't speak for Ireland, but Irish-Americans do indeed seem to fit into the categories you say. The Church is at least in a difficult spot, as the Archbishop noted. | 2015-05-26T01:22:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36400 |
| I was going to add up all the members of the various Christian faiths and Reform Judaism that have approved marriage equity, but it's nearly impossible. For one, most allow any given congregation to opt out - so they wouldn't count. I also don't trust the net counts of followers in bulk. So I punted on the exercise. However, it is entirely possible that a majority of Christians in this nation belong to a church that consecrates all marriages equally. There is certainly a very large number if it isn't a majority. So the question is a bit moot, IMHO. |
2015-05-26T01:21:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36399 |
| Thanks! | 2015-05-26T01:18:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/22/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery-2/#comment-36398 |
| It is between a lot of junkyards, the railroad, and I-35E. The surrounding neighborhood is very small, indeed. | 2015-05-26T01:18:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/22/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery-2/#comment-36397 |
| Indeed. We must remember the true cost of war to both honor it and understand why it needs to be rare. | 2015-05-26T01:18:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/22/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery-2/#comment-36396 |
| And there are always enough "facts" thrown around to justify the position anyone already has, so why would they change? Yes, it's a fairy tale. Our sense of reality seems rather limited the more we connect with faraway places that are difficult to understand with our old ways of thinking. |
2015-05-26T01:17:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36395 |
| An excellent point. I have been thinking about the infrastructure that rebuilds an economy and I have to say that from what I can tell the basics are still what matter the most. Roads, utilities, etc - and leave the rest way down the list. This does seem like very old thinking, and I very much agree that if you think through the process of decentralization in business today there is a LOT to chew on. Look for more to come. :-) | 2015-05-26T01:16:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36394 |
| Indeed! :-) | 2015-05-26T01:13:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/25/ireland-stands-for-equality/#comment-36393 |
| Absolutely. If that idle money goes out slowly, which is to say velocity increases slowly, all should be good. But if it starts moving rapidly for whatever reason there will be inflation. Currently, velocity (I favor MZM) is if anything still going down. But it's a crapshoot. | 2015-05-21T20:00:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-36220 |
| I will go with that. | 2015-05-20T15:50:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36187 |
| No, probably not. States are the basis of our government and are sovereign. All the feds can do is to ask for reporting. | 2015-05-20T15:50:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36186 |
| The car plants that came into the South, particularly the VW plant in Chattanooga, seem to be good investments for the community. Do they really pay for themselves? I have yet to see anyone make that case, but in those cases I'm sure it's at least close. | 2015-05-20T15:30:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36183 |
| If you want to set up a good business climate either with low taxes or with a lot of really good talent that's worth the additional expense, by all means. But it needs to benefit all businesses if it's going to do what any community needs - stable work and a productive economy. | 2015-05-20T15:25:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/20/devouring-the-dreams-and-cash/#comment-36181 |
| Then don't. :-) | 2015-05-18T18:13:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36116 |
| Absolutely! | 2015-05-18T18:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36115 |
| Well, yes, we all get into things that are technical and hard to explain unless you've been there. It's hard to have a democracy when some of those entities have a lot of power. Especially the Legislature. | 2015-05-18T18:12:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36114 |
| Will do! | 2015-05-18T18:11:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36113 |
| Thanks! | 2015-05-18T18:11:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/18/suspending-disbelief-2/#comment-36112 |
| If all this money went out into the economy at once, you are right. The trick is to have a gradual turnaround, which is what we're hoping for. Stagflation would be unbearable right now, yes. | 2015-05-15T16:09:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-36000 |
| That is true. The whole environment has to loosen up after the disaster of the credit bubble. | 2015-05-15T16:08:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-35999 |
| I wouldn't say crash, but there will be pain. I do see a quarter point early in the summer and maybe another quarter later on - and that might be it for now. But when it happens there could well be a panic given how much is bet against it happening. And the word "bet" is indeed the right word. | 2015-05-15T15:56:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-35995 |
| This is what the Fed wanted all along, and since they can only influence money supply it was their contribution to ending the Depression. The missing piece is, indeed, that the money is not getting out into the world and doing good things like creating work, etc. A little inflation would indeed be a good thing because it would put pressure on everyone sitting on the money to spend it. But the plan just isn't working. That's basically what we call a "liquidity trap" in a nutshell. There is liquidity, but there is too much of it. |
2015-05-15T15:55:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/15/betting-on-low-interest/#comment-35994 |
| Yes, we never have unalloyed good news. | 2015-05-13T19:17:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/13/productivity-panic/#comment-35921 |
| That's about the size of it. If growth returns, it should all be OK. | 2015-05-13T19:17:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/13/productivity-panic/#comment-35920 |
| Good points. With increasing automation of so many jobs, raw "productivity gains" are often a sign that people are being put out of work. But does it work the opposite in reverse? I can't say that for sure. I can say that there is still decent job growth even as GDP growth sputters a little bit for well known reasons, so there does appear to be some investment in the talent for the future. Given how tight everything has been this seems to be something we do have to go through to get to the other side. | 2015-05-13T15:54:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/13/productivity-panic/#comment-35915 |
| So I am simply behind the times on my Canadian politics, eh? Well, that does explain things rather well. They do seem to have kept their populist roots, however, so a center/popular party would definitely be the kind of party I would see doing well in this environment! | 2015-05-11T20:53:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35840 |
| Fair point. But turnout was terrible, meaning that what was dished up by the two-party system was not to anyone's liking. One big difference in these parliamentary elections is that there are many parties, meaning there are real alternatives. | 2015-05-11T18:19:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35831 |
| I agree on all counts, but especially on Clinton (last names, yes!). She has to re-fashion herself as an outsider somehow, or at least someone who has a common touch. Bill will have to give her pointers. Generational change is something we will have to see. I think that as outsiders women are strong candidates all around. |
2015-05-11T18:18:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35830 |
| I have discounted the importance of generational change so far, which may be a huge flaw in my theory of what's going on. We certainly saw it in Minneapolis as I noted before. http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/ | 2015-05-11T17:12:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35826 |
| Thank you for your your additions! it's just a theory of mine at this stage, but it seems to be working. The two parts are that: 1) The developed world is experiencing a similar angst about politics so we are seeing similar wild swings everywhere, and 2) It is indeed about who we can trust and/or who will take care of business, not ideology. Everything is expressed differently in a parliamentary system vs a presidential system, so you really have to dig to get at the similarities some times. And we do have yet to really experience this in the US, with hyper-partisanship still reigning. But I think we'll get there, too. Funny things happen when the world gets really close, eh? :-) |
2015-05-11T17:10:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/11/winds-of-change-blow-both-ways/#comment-35825 |
| I have to confess I had one once, too. I don't remember what software I downloaded to get it, but it was nasty. I reinstalled chrome quickly to get rid of it. | 2015-05-08T17:24:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/08/online-ad-bust/#comment-35700 |
| I think we're getting some hints as to where and when it may be a good thing. | 2015-05-08T17:24:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/08/online-ad-bust/#comment-35699 |
| So for a retailer it may be very useful. I like that. | 2015-05-08T17:23:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/08/online-ad-bust/#comment-35698 |
| Well, that was an interesting election. It didn't go as anyone thought. How did this happen? I think whenever you have an election that goes against the last minute polls you have to say it was a gut reaction more than an ideological one. In the case of the UK, this was a rejection of Ed Miliband as a potential leader than anything else. My read is that people everywhere are becoming much less ideological and more interested in leaders who actually get things done - who provide a sense of stability. I don't think anyone really likes David Cameron, but he does have an air of confidence and competence about him. That may be what voters really like. |
2015-05-08T14:29:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35692 |
| Thanks for this addition. You make it sound as though the idea that advertising could be measured directly was never ado-able thing in the first place, however. I can buy that. | 2015-05-08T02:09:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/08/online-ad-bust/#comment-35676 |
| I think you hit the nail on the head. It was always a double-edged sword, but we chose to ignore the backswing until it got very ugly. | 2015-05-07T01:30:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35643 |
| I don't know that we can learn anything, but it's interesting that the developed world as a unit seems to be going through similar problems: 1) A lot of angst and even anger over the changes brought by globalism, 2) A totally mushy left wing with no real plans, and 3) A general lack of leadership all around. Basically, I don't know how any of us are going to get through this period of rapid change. The developing world should continue to gain on us if this is the best anyone has to offer, IMHO. |
2015-05-07T01:18:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35641 |
| Thanks! | 2015-05-07T01:16:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35640 |
| It's one thing to like the politicians, it's another to form a new nation. The long and short of it is that SNP is very competent but loyalty remains with the UK - by a slim margin. | 2015-05-07T01:16:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35639 |
| That's pretty much the story, yes. :-) | 2015-05-07T01:15:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35638 |
| They won't get more than 2 seats, if that. May not even get those. | 2015-05-07T01:15:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/06/rue-brittania/#comment-35637 |
| Excellent comment - this could be expanded to a post by itself! I think you hit the nail on the head, especially with the cyclical nature of this. In the 1980s, a company with a lot of cash was a takeover target more than anything. It was dangerous to have too much cash on hand. Perhaps those predators need to come out again? :-) With regard to running a company, I can't agree more. Insisting on the highest standards from employees and giving them real authority to improve things is at the heart of Six Sigma. That has to be combined with a great work environment that includes good compensation. That is how you run a company that provides good service and quality, which is to say a company with a decent and sustainable profit margin. |
2015-05-05T15:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35599 |
| That is exactly the problem. If you think it through for a while it gets scarier all the time. | 2015-05-04T18:49:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35582 |
| Pretty much, yes. The private banks are now running the show because they have the resources. | 2015-05-04T18:48:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35581 |
| Yes, the Fed is in a corner. They have limited ability to influence anything real as long as they are trapped near zero rates. Those deposits have to go out into the economy before they will have the freedom to set rates they used to enjoy. | 2015-05-04T18:48:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35580 |
| I am indeed looking for changes in public policy that are necessary to reverse this trend. I find it very disturbing, especially when you realize there is no quick way out of this. Even at just 1% the interest on $3T is $30B every year! | 2015-05-04T18:46:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35579 |
| I appreciate the expert opinion! :-) Thanks! | 2015-05-04T18:45:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35578 |
| It depends how fast it goes out, but that does seem likely at some stage, yes. | 2015-05-04T18:45:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35577 |
| Maybe. If rates go up, the interest on cash goes up, too. So rates have to remain abnormally low to favor investment in something that is not passive. That's the nature of the liquidity trap - it's very hard to get out of. What will change things is when income from investments in job and growth producing things outweighs that passive income. Getting there is the hard part. |
2015-05-04T18:44:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35576 |
| The investment is certainly overseas, even as the income is from here. The economy is turning around, slowly, but the net investment in America is very slight. I believe this is worth looking at very carefully. I would start with the overhead per employee, which I've been harping on for years, and work out from there. Wholesale reform is obviously necessary, IMHO. I also don't see a liberal or conservative approach as being appropriate - this will take a deeper understanding of how corporations have changed and how we need them to change in the next economy. | 2015-05-04T18:42:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35575 |
| I won't argue that my bias didn't come out in that. But it wasn't so much that I am personally against them paying taxes, it was that I was assuming that they wouldn't pay that much unless they were forced to. In this case, the blatant attempt to puff their stock came at a rather steep price. I find it shocking that they were willing to do pay out so much in taxes. That doesn't mean I'm against making corporations pay more. But the way we do it with a high marginal rate is hurting our collections because so much can be hidden overseas. It was an unfortunate choice of words all around. It could have been done much better. |
2015-05-04T18:38:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/04/sitting-on-cash/#comment-35574 |
| I want to "appropriate" this paragraph entirely from you, because I think it is very well said and more people need to hear this: "Who really knows when the lives of black people will be recognised and understood. I personally don’t think they ever will be. I don’t mean to come across so pessimistic, but having recently watched Selma, set in the mid 1960s, and looking at America today, how much has REALLY changed? Again, I don’t mean to undermine the work of the great MLK, Rosa Parks, Malcom X because I know things HAVE changed , but it gets to a point where it is actually just tiring, fighting for your right as a human being, just because of the colour of your skin. It is 2015 and being black is clearly still a crime. They love to appropriate the culture but find it difficult to embrace the people. " |
2015-05-01T18:32:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35459 |
| I think that's the most important part. If we all see history as a struggle like that, we have something to talk about. | 2015-05-01T18:29:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/01/a-workers-paradise/#comment-35458 |
| Comparing him to Jesus is pushing it real hard. But ... There is this quote from Hélder Câmara, Archbishop of Recife, Brazil and a major proponent of Liberation Theology: "When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." |
2015-05-01T18:28:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/01/a-workers-paradise/#comment-35457 |
| I think we'll skip the crazy, thank you. :-) | 2015-05-01T18:25:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/01/a-workers-paradise/#comment-35455 |
| You are completely right when you say that a direct application of Marx to today's politics cannot be done with any kind of rigor. That said, I think that his analysis of history has been completely accepted, and many of his goals have been accepted into mainstream politics. His prediction about where an industrial world was likely to go was rather accurate all around. And we have achieved much of what he thought an ideal state would achieve. The funny thing is that the Libertarians even get to claim him in the "whithering away of the state" part. :-) |
2015-05-01T18:24:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/05/01/a-workers-paradise/#comment-35454 |
| Thanks! Keep at it! | 2015-05-01T18:22:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35453 |
| Amen. And I don't think white people can ever really understand what it's like to be black in America, which is why we have so much trouble talking about this the way we have to. | 2015-05-01T18:21:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35452 |
| If you buy, I'm sure he'd be there! :-) Seriously, he's a good man who just speaks his mind. We need to talk about his openly, and his voice is definitely needed. | 2015-05-01T18:20:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35451 |
| Perhaps that is a bit much. But back in 1980 I heard that a lot after the McDuffie riot in Miami. The feeling was that no one would pay attention to the problems until it was obvious, making a riot inevitable. Perhaps Baltimore isn't quite the same, sure, but I feel like I've seen this movie before. The peaceful protests have been very powerful, and I do think we need to emphasize them more. That's the one thing I'd change in this piece if I had a chance to edit it again. However, I'm not exactly one to condemn the violence in the first place because I don't see what people honestly expect when they let civilization break down - and I do NOT mean a breakdown in any "broken window" sense of the word. |
2015-05-01T18:19:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35450 |
| Thanks! I'd love to hear your thoughts, too. | 2015-05-01T18:16:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/29/restoring-order/#comment-35449 |
| Exactly. We have to see that $3T out into the economy before we can say things are "normal". And that means that with all the risk in the world investors have to believe they will get a better return investing than they will parking it in the Fed. To me, this only puts more pressure on the need for major policy/tax reform. We have to do something to shake things up and tell the world "It's different from today forward". I hope to tackle that on Friday once I get my head around it some more. |
2015-04-28T17:15:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/27/from-net-collector-to-payer/#comment-35288 |
| I wasn't focused on that, but you're right - it is a big problem. It is worth talking about a lot more. | 2015-04-26T21:34:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35211 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-26T21:33:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35209 |
| It's not guilt, at least I don't think it is. I am trying to learn lessons from this. | 2015-04-26T21:32:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35208 |
| Exactly. More laws might just get in the way, anyways. | 2015-04-26T21:31:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35207 |
| Excellent. I don't want a bunch of laws about taking care of each other, I want us to just do it. I don't want a system, I want a culture. | 2015-04-26T21:30:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/24/brothers-keeper/#comment-35206 |
| You got my point, yes. I took the judgmental nature from Christian tradition, yes. It may not be appropriate, but it helps to frame the view of a frustrated parent. | 2015-04-26T21:25:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35205 |
| Thank you. That is very good. | 2015-04-26T21:24:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35204 |
| Thanks, you read me well. :-) I'm OK. | 2015-04-26T21:23:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35203 |
| Yes, that is about it. :-) | 2015-04-26T21:23:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35202 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-26T21:22:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/22/revelation/#comment-35201 |
| The population of Mexico is a lot more indigenous than the USA, so they have a better claim that they ARE the natives. | 2015-04-26T21:21:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35200 |
| Thank you for the clarification! I should have read down in the comments before I responded. :-) | 2015-04-26T21:20:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35199 |
| Did you just wake from a stupor? :-) | 2015-04-26T21:19:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35198 |
| It's hardly celebrated, no. It's picking up some cache from the celebrations in the US, but it's hardly the biggest holiday. | 2015-04-26T21:19:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35197 |
| Mexicans are more like USA residents (hard to say "American" in this context!) than anyone else. We really are brothers! | 2015-04-26T21:18:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35196 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-26T21:16:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35195 |
| Thanks! Mexico is about as diverse as the USA, and in some ways moreso with its strong indigenous roots. It's all part of the North American experience, and it's work talking about how much we share IMHO. | 2015-04-26T21:16:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/20/cinco-de-mayo-3/#comment-35194 |
| That can work. Doorknocking your neighborhood and really listening to your neighbors can be a wonderful experience. Or were you being facetious? :-) | 2015-04-26T21:15:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35193 |
| That is the most important part, yes. I do think that ultimately it takes more than empathy, but it's at least a good start! | 2015-04-26T21:14:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35192 |
| That is certainly true, but I think the inverse is true - practicing kindness can get you out of your skin as it gets you closer to other people! | 2015-04-26T21:13:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35191 |
| Exactly! Balance is a dynamic thing, so we are always just a bit to one side or another as the balance point shifts. The skill seems to be in shifting with the world. | 2015-04-26T21:12:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35190 |
| That's fair. As a person who probably spends too much time outside himself, I would say that the ability to shift perspective when it is necessary is good enough. | 2015-04-26T21:11:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35189 |
| Excellent point! The greater your understanding of the world, the greater your potential command of it. A 360 degree perspective of a situation can only be to your benefit! | 2015-04-26T21:10:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/17/exstasism-2/#comment-35188 |
| See? Everyone does. :-) Hope it worked out! | 2015-04-26T21:09:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35187 |
| I know, you don't want to pay any more than you do. But we do have a deficit, and as long as we do we can't ignore it. | 2015-04-26T21:08:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35186 |
| Advice from the accountant! :-) I hope no one waited until the last minute. Wait, nearly everyone does. Nevermind. :-) | 2015-04-26T21:07:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35185 |
| I believe that a flat tax with a high deduction based on 200% of the poverty line, ie the basic cost of living in the US, would be at least as progressive as we have now. So I don't think we can argue that fairness or prgressivity is the main goal of the system we have now. | 2015-04-26T21:07:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35184 |
| I don't know if the IRS could ever send us a bill, but it could be done on a much simpler online form, yes. | 2015-04-26T21:06:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35183 |
| It is completely wasted. There is a general rule that simplicity works against fairness, but there is also a point where complexity works against fairness - and certainly against perceived fairness. Everyone believes that those who can afford to hire good accountants are getting a big break, and that does seem to be true. That's a huge problem. There is no excuse for the level of complexity we have. It works against everyone's values and expectations for an efficient and fair system. |
2015-04-26T21:05:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35182 |
| Thank you for reblogging! | 2015-04-26T21:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/15/a-holiday-together/#comment-35181 |
| Thank you all for your comments and for being there when I need you. Bless every one of you and may depression never darken your door. Be there for each other as much as you can and we'll all be allright. | 2015-04-13T15:10:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/10/scenes-from-childhood/#comment-34299 |
| Bill has his foundation. It's been a great role for him. Hillary is indeed using her first name as a warmer, friendly brand - but I won't do that unless I think the playing field is genuinely level. I do not see that right now. | 2015-04-13T15:08:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34297 |
| Thank you very much! The role of women is something that has so many little barriers all through any process. When they leap over them we judge them on how gracefully they did it while men just walk around gladhanding. It's all quite crazy. I think calling it out easily is the best way to get everyone to just cut it out for once. | 2015-04-13T15:07:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34296 |
| Make popcorn! :-) | 2015-04-13T15:05:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34295 |
| Sen Warren has a long future ahead of her, but she wants to do what she knows either needs to be done or she alone can do best. I admire her greatly for that. | 2015-04-13T15:05:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34294 |
| Yes, she needs real "Hillary people" on her side. The last time was a horrible disaster to watch. | 2015-04-13T15:04:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34293 |
| Interesting point on the scandals, and I like it. No more stupid, please, and we'll get over the rest. :-) Sen Warren is a very conservative (small "c") person and knows what she can do in her time. She wants to be Treasury Secretary so she can do what she does best. She also wants to be a voice for the voiceless. I think of her as something like Henry Wallace, leader of the Progressive wing of the party and the one who pushed FDR to the left. There is a place for that, especially when it comes to energizing people. That makes Bill Clinton something like Eleanor Roosevelt, a role I think he would do well in. Happy days are here again? |
2015-04-13T15:03:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34292 |
| What is her myth? A determined woman who makes it on her own terms? The flip side of it, which is unbridled ambition no matter what? She does need to define herself, now that I think of it, but we know Clinton so well that I think the main thing she needs to do is appear human and warm. Cold, calculating Clinton is the "bad myth". | 2015-04-13T15:00:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34290 |
| Thanks, and as of right now I do. :-) | 2015-04-13T14:58:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34289 |
| I have given a lot of thought to female archetypes over the years, but I haven't written about them. Generally, I believe that we have to get past the need for them in the first place. But if you constrict your universe to "women in power" for an easy shorthand, what do you say? Elizabethan? Call up Joan of Arc? It gets strange fast. Sen Patty Murray (D-OR) was called a "Mom in tennis shoes" by Bob Packwood, and turned around to use it against him. Mom images always work well, and I like the idea of Clinton using something like "It's time for Mom to smack some sense into the kids running the show." But she won't. Still, it's a good archetype for women in power, and Mom is one of the few power figures that are handy. |
2015-04-13T14:58:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/13/the-race-is-on/#comment-34288 |
| English has taken so much from French that some of these words and phrases really trip on each other! | 2015-04-09T19:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/08/cocktail-french/#comment-34136 |
| Yes, all of these are used in The Economist. A working class magazine might only use a few, but you'll see them from time to time. Here in the US I'd say they are almost extinct. | 2015-04-08T21:31:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/08/cocktail-french/#comment-34099 |
| merci beaucoup! | 2015-04-08T21:30:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/08/cocktail-french/#comment-34098 |
| Some are not common. But I have seen them all at least once in my life. | 2015-04-08T21:30:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/08/cocktail-french/#comment-34097 |
| That sounds pretty good. You, too, man! | 2015-04-07T03:43:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34017 |
| When using a blog as a resume item, it's probably the one thing that really counts. :-) | 2015-04-06T20:42:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34007 |
| Thank you! You've been with me at least 3 years, maybe 4 now? That means a lot to me, it really does. And you've been a great help on social media, too. Our Robotics team, 2491? We WON! Yes, we won the North Star Regional Tournament and are going on to the World Championships in St Louis. My life is rather upside down as a result, so I have no idea how I'll keep up this schedule. |
2015-04-06T16:12:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34003 |
| Thank you very much! You've been following me for about 3 years now, yes? I really appreciate that. Longtime readers are more important than anyone because you've stuck with me. Not every post is high quality - I aim for one really great one a week, or a .333 batting average. I hope I'm hitting that. :-) | 2015-04-06T16:11:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34002 |
| Will do! | 2015-04-06T16:10:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34001 |
| Ha! We all have to find ways to make something happen. I do a lot of assignments I really don't like just to pay the bills. The glamourous political commentary on the teevee? The people that get those gigs honestly seem to not have the slightest idea what they are talking about. Oh well. We all soldier on! I have my own li'l space here. It's something. |
2015-04-06T16:09:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-34000 |
| Thank you very much! My goal is to get us all past the anxiety and master the change so that we have a much more positive outlook - and a better life. | 2015-04-06T16:07:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-33999 |
| Thank you very much! Consistency has been important to me - it's what separates an amateur ranter from a writing professional. I do like to demonstrate that more than anything else! | 2015-04-06T16:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-33998 |
| Thank you very much! 2008 was a real milestone, and I'm proud of that call. But I think it's more important to analyze it in greater context and see how we've been in something like a Depression since 2000. That took a lot more time to flesh out (really, not until 2010) but it should help guide us longer. If only the mainstream press could realize how handy that analysis is for explaining everything since 2000. Oh well. |
2015-04-06T16:06:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/06/eight-years-on/#comment-33997 |
| Thank you very much, and a reblog is a great honor! | 2015-04-04T17:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33921 |
| One of those is an insult, the other is a compliment :-) | 2015-04-04T06:50:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33904 |
| As I have it defined here, there is plenty of room for morality in pragmatism. It is simply about how those values are realized, which is to say that a pragmatic person puts them into action. Pragmatism is more like technology than science. It's the reduction to practice that counts. Values tell you most or all of what you do. |
2015-04-03T20:21:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33880 |
| I was only positive about his second point. I kind of missed the part on Kissinger. I have never had a strong opinion about the Vietnam era. I could ask my Dad, an antiwar Republican. But I only remember strong arguments on both sides. |
2015-04-03T20:09:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33877 |
| Mostly, I think we need to turn down the volume on everything. I am OUTRAGED by the lack of civility! No ... wait ... nevermind ... | 2015-04-03T05:45:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33858 |
| See above. :-) If we do focus on a truly representative and functioning democratic republic, I think the problem with money in politics is obviously a top priority. So yes, we do have values to express - but we still have to be pragmatic in how we exercise those values and define the goals that they compel us towards. | 2015-04-03T02:42:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33838 |
| I accept that addition gladly. | 2015-04-03T02:40:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/03/pragmatism-2/#comment-33837 |
| It's not that they shouldn't supply Apple, it's that you would think after the lawsuit the companies would part ways and compete more than cooperate. But they apparently need each other. It's rather strange. | 2015-04-02T20:21:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33818 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-02T05:09:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33799 |
| Doing just that. | 2015-04-02T05:09:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33798 |
| Yes. It's only going to get worse for a while. | 2015-04-01T20:22:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33784 |
| Yes, but it may be with my other projections and as an eBook where I can make some dough off of it for a change. I have a dozen or more posts on the trends that should define the next 5 years. | 2015-04-01T16:47:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33780 |
| Another Army saying. I'm going to lose my liberal cred, here. :-) | 2015-04-01T16:46:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33779 |
| Thank you! I do wonder about tech companies, particularly Apple. At some point you have to wonder what they really deliver to the consumers given that everyone uses the same parts. | 2015-04-01T16:45:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33778 |
| In retail and manufacturing, for sure. It does define both of them. | 2015-04-01T16:44:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33777 |
| Thanks! | 2015-04-01T16:44:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/04/01/logistics/#comment-33776 |
| I think this is an insult ... wait, no ... OK. :-) Seriously, I'm a mainstream liberal Democrat circa 1950 in many ways. I do believe in the power of the free market, but honestly think that "free market" is an ideal that has to be worked towards, not a naturally occurring phenomenon. And I do support a safety net for the vulnerable within that framework. This piece is on a trend that I see developing and becoming more important. My opinion about it is not important - just like my opinion on more automation or more workers on temporary contracts. What matters to me is that as this free market changes we should respond appropriately to make sure that things don't get more out of whack. For example, what does "price fixing" mean when everyone buys components from the same place? When is there an valuable trade association and when is there a collusive trust? These lines are going to blur. But I think we can see a trend here that is likely to continue for some very important reasons. And if we want to have the freest possible market (again, something I think has to be created by tradition, agreement, and law) then how should we respond? As for things like budget debt, etc - you should read between the lines a bit. What I'm worried about are the demographics when the Baby Boomers retire. Where I expect strong economic growth, it may not be enough to keep up with Medicare, etc. A structurally out of balance budget now is a train wreck in 2024 or so. |
2015-03-31T23:52:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33722 |
| Yes, in many ways we're talking about the anitdote to socialism. A free market can be brutal at times, but it's best for everyone when there is some cooperation - in their interest, of course. :-) I would argue that when it's all running properly there should be no interest in "socialism". |
2015-03-31T22:48:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33719 |
| Socialism. Happy now? :-) I don't know just where socialism figures into this, although it does seem to be obsessed with things like "leveling the playing field" and so on. But yes, "coopertition" does seem like a socialist concept if you have to boil it down really hard. |
2015-03-31T16:53:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33703 |
| You are right, academia is a really good example of competitive cooperation, but with a heavier emphasis on the latter. Perhaps a more technologically driven business world simply becomes more like academia? It would make sense, given that new knowledge filters through the scene in a certain way in both cases. I haven't seen Robot Wars in a long time! Wasn't Grant Imahara the emcee for that, or did he just to the robotic competitions? Either way, I would like to see more of that. Those were the "death robots" and they were a lot of fun to watch as they ripped each other apart! :-) |
2015-03-30T21:06:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33657 |
| Yes, it is about ethics. What I'm getting at here is the framework under which ethics are defined more than the ethics themselves. I think that ethics are going to remain very fluid for a long time, especially as there is a lot more change. The rate of change is probably going to settle down at some point, but probably not soon. Ethics can't really settle down until that happens, IMHO. But it would be good, yes! | 2015-03-30T21:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33656 |
| I do not understand their arrangement one bit, to be honest. Samsung should just cut Apple out of the loop and do their own thing. That may get them knocked for monopolistic behavior, but I think they have a good case for not willing to share - especially the stuff that is still covered by patents. | 2015-03-30T21:02:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33655 |
| I don't usually like words like this, which is a "portmanteau" of two others, but a term is necessary. It's a state of competition where everyone is mindful of the playing field and rules as much as the game itself, looking for places where everyone can get ahead at the same time. The next piece will be on logistics. I am going to tie a lot of things together with a follow-up after that. |
2015-03-30T21:01:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/30/coopertition/#comment-33654 |
| Pet food belongs to the Democratic Bug's Republic | 2015-03-28T15:32:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33546 |
| Did we really withdraw from the region, or are you just talking iraq? | 2015-03-28T15:25:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33544 |
| I believe that in the long run something like liberal democracy will come to the Middle East. It will be changed a little to suit their needs, and it may include a stronger emphasis on morality and related institutions than we would find palatable (much like Bolivar's vision). But it will come. As you know, in the long run we are all dead. But the example that we set as we wait is at least as important as force we apply. Why did the Western / NATO way win? Ultimately, very few shots were actually fired. We won because we were right and because we were generous when we needed to be. I go back to the inability to put up about $14B that Ukraine needed to turn westward back 18 months ago. It was far less than the cost of German Unification - and it was far less than what this is all costing us now. Helmut Kohl never balked at the price of Unification, knowing it was an historic moment. Would today's EU leaders do the same? How about the US? Are we that much more comfortable sending in weapons than real aid? Would we really have a Marshall Plan today? I think Anna raised an interesting point. |
2015-03-27T21:30:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33509 |
| That's a good point - what are we doing to make friends around the world these days? It may not be enough on its own, but we should be doing that. I will look into our aid and support of international aid agencies. That would be something positive. Thanks! | 2015-03-27T16:24:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33493 |
| I am coming around to that belief as well, yes. | 2015-03-27T16:23:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33492 |
| And we are responsible, ultimately, for far too much of what is going on. I still feel that whatever we can do to get Iran to stop screwing around is good, but there is remarkably little proof that they are deeply involved in Yemen. A strong hunch, yes, but that's really all. | 2015-03-27T16:23:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33491 |
| We need to promote peaceful trade first and foremost. All the weapons we send around the world appear to only get in the way of that, at least eventually. | 2015-03-27T16:21:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33490 |
| Thank you! It has been bad for a long time, but it is getting much more dangerous with this Sunni/Shia war flaring up. That could be a true horror that engulfs the entire region. | 2015-03-27T16:20:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33489 |
| It does seem to be that way, yes. | 2015-03-27T16:19:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33487 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-03-27T16:18:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/27/a-bloody-dangerous-game/#comment-33486 |
| Yes! That's why there is a Scientific Method - which has been with us for 2500 years. What is the thesis? What is the antithesis? How can you disprove the antithesis with a high degree of certainty? This can be applied to many things, including economics! | 2015-03-25T16:15:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33390 |
| Not exactly. But technology makes the learning useful in some way. Science deals in both questions and facts - new facts only ask new questions. Technology is really off to the side as something different. | 2015-03-25T16:14:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33389 |
| Evolution is a favorite of mine because it illustrated the Scientific Method very well. There is a thesis, a theory - "Living things change in response to their environment, and over time become different species". The way to "prove" this thesis is to disprove the antithesis - "Living things do not change in response to their environment." Now that we know that life does change when their habitat changes, we have proved the thesis. But that does NOT mean the story ends there! How do living things change? It wasn't until 60 years ago that Watson & Crick found the role of DNA, and we are still learning how to map it. And the role of epigenetics is still being understood. There is a lot to learn even after the thesis is proved! |
2015-03-25T16:13:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33388 |
| Thanks! | 2015-03-25T16:09:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/25/technology-science/#comment-33387 |
| Did you see that we are rapidly consuming oil storage capacity? http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20472 | 2015-03-24T22:31:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33351 |
| A very good point. Water is rarely re-used for reasons I don't understand - it seems to be very valuable to the process, yet it is wasted? The huge boom introduced a lot of practices that are totally outlandish overall, and as we take a pause we can look at what's been done and start regulating this a lot better. | 2015-03-24T16:50:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33339 |
| All oil drilling pollutes. It's a matter of finding a way that is tolerably clean, which changes from one generation to the next. In terms of general mayhem under the earth, fracking is pretty dirty. | 2015-03-24T16:49:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33338 |
| No, they are still subject to state and federal laws. The exact requirements vary from state to state, but all require water released to be cleaned up. | 2015-03-24T16:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33337 |
| As it stands today, I think I have to agree that fracking is too dangerous to allow. But that doesn't mean there isn't a way to do this safely. I would like to see pressure on the industry to find a way to clean it up and set a much higher standard than we have now. | 2015-03-23T16:34:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33281 |
| It's a slippery issue, and a dirty one, too. Nothing to get fracked over. | 2015-03-23T03:55:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33255 |
| I don't know how many people from the oil and gas industry were involved. My guess is not many based on the response. Thanks! |
2015-03-23T03:54:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/23/flak-over-frack/#comment-33254 |
| Yes, I regard all North American oil as "domestic". I think in practical terms it is. As for "The Wealth of Nations", people treat it far too much like the Bible - that is, they tell everyone what it says without ever actually reading it. Adam Smith had a lot to say about a strategic perspective on building the economy, which is to say there is a place for some central planning. I wish everyone would read his stuff more clearly because I think we'd have intelligent discussions about a lot of stuff. |
2015-03-21T15:04:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/20/whither-oil/#comment-33188 |
| Greece is confronting this reality - but only time will tell us how much they are willing to get to work and be a bit more like the Germans they now loathe. | 2015-03-20T18:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-33147 |
| It is a mystery to me. I will try to find out who is making more, but my guess is retailers are simply not competing as tightly as they used to. For many years they made no money on gasoline, breaking nearly even as a way to lure people in to buy cigarettes and lottery tickets - where they made the dough. | 2015-03-20T16:26:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/20/whither-oil/#comment-33135 |
| It's very bad for conservation, but the net zero inflation is a good thing, yes. | 2015-03-20T03:32:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/20/whither-oil/#comment-33114 |
| Basically, yes. :-) Been wrong too many times to say anything else. The oil patch does go in waves like this, and it will come back. But this was a very quick and big wave, even by their standards. |
2015-03-20T03:31:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/20/whither-oil/#comment-33113 |
| Well, thank you! That's the nicest thing you've ever said! You're right, it would be really good to see every broad category for expenditures and receipts in one line graph to see what has changed. I think you're hinting that the idea that it's a constant share of GDP except for strange events is a weird one, and I agree that this is surprising. However, real GDP has gone up a factor of 8 since 1950 (!!) while population has just over doubled. So my hunch is that social payouts have been living off of the increased productivity (back to the robots!) which frankly is what they should be doing, IMHO. If only I didn't have to earn a living I could put all this together. Perhaps a kickstarter grant for a few month's living expenses is in order? :-) |
2015-03-19T15:53:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33077 |
| 1) Thank you for that link, it's a good article! I'm only ashamed I missed it before I wrote. 2) Note that inflation adjusted defense spending in the late 1990s is about $350B. That is what I am proposing. While we weren't at war in that period, the Clinton administration did have a tendency to wang cruise missiles at nearly everyone - to the point where we essentially ran out of them (hit our minimum stockpile). So we can't say that we were "weaker" at that time. I think this is a good goal. 3) Note the inclusion of the off-budget wars in the first graph - is that carried through in the other graphs? Pushing wars off budget really makes it hard to perform good analysis. Part of the reason I went with total federal outlays is that you can't hide anything in that number - social security outlays and everything. I think some of the other graphs do not include those wars. 4) In all cases, even mine, a lot of defense-like spending on homeland security, intelligence, and foreign aid is not included in any of this. It's another $61B for HS alone. I believe that this makes my point even stronger. The point is that the Federal budget as a share of the economy rises and falls primarily on defense spending, with the economy the secondary effect. That seems to hold true based on these charts. The political points that I want to make from that are: a) If you want smaller government, you have to support smaller defense spending. b) Auditing the Pentagon remains a high priority. c) While there is no "perfect" share of Federal government in the economy, somewhere in the 18-19 percent range is a postwar norm and should be accepted as at least reasonable by all parties. We are nearly in that range now, and a reasonable cut to defense (possibly pending an audit) would get us firmly there. Since you are a regular reader, you can see that I am putting together a series on how we get our Federal budget under control in a way that guarantees a certain degree of stability and sustainability while maintaining the ability to "pump prime" in downturns. What I have not said yet is that I think this is essential - a good idea in normal times, but critical as the population ages and the Boomers retire. This is what I think we have to do in the new economy that is coming, and the age of the population is a major feature of that. Again, thank you for this link. I think it makes my points even stronger. If you disagree (what, you? :-) ) please let me know (like you wouldn't :-) ). |
2015-03-18T21:05:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33038 |
| Yes, although sometimes I would put it as " who will make the diplomats do the job they were hired to, rather than foist it off on the military?" | 2015-03-18T16:10:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33031 |
| Yes, there is always a need for a lot of this. But 19 aircraft carries? Honestly ... | 2015-03-18T15:47:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33027 |
| Thank you for that perspective! Yes, here in the US we tend to look at things very differently - and I would say very destructively. Our status as the Global Policeman needs to be challenged in a deep and fundamental way before we can get our own house in order and we can be truly useful for a peaceful, prosperous world. I am presenting here an alternative way of looking at things - one that I feel is supported by data. I have not heard of "America By Design". I am fascinated by what you read about us now. :-) We do need a defense policy, and we do have actual enemies we must be vigilant about. But to do everything everywhere is utterly unreasonable. More to the point, we don't even talk about it at all. It's very destructive. |
2015-03-18T15:46:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33026 |
| No. The size of the Federal Government has been largely a function of the size of the military in the PostWar era. It's that simple. | 2015-03-18T15:41:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33025 |
| THAT may well be a huge problem, and I haven't found a good way to measure it. I'm not against regulation as a concept, but there are good ways and bad ways to do it. A huge book of regulations for every action during the day usually does a lot less good than incentives and support for doing the right thing. So, yes, I should look at that. I really don't know how right now, though. |
2015-03-18T15:41:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33024 |
| (I figured that. :-) ) | 2015-03-18T15:39:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33023 |
| My thinking is that we really need to put our house in order before we can even think about the kind of social programs that other developed nations have. My guess is that when we do, they will be administered by States rather than the Federal government no matter what. So where are we today? Perhaps the advocates of smaller Federal government are right. If you look at what the Feds do spend money on, so much of it only makes things worse from what I can tell - and at the very least distorts our foreign policy. Let's cut it all back by taking a real hard look at what we spend our money on. The results are rather surprising, IMHO. |
2015-03-18T15:39:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33022 |
| It is hard to see how ISIS, which does command our attention, really demands an expansion of our military. The number of strikes we are carrying out is not large, and is greatly exceeded by the training needed to keep so many pilots in shape. We have certainly helped to create many of the groups we now face, usually by accident. Getting out of all of this is only going to promote peace, from what I can tell. |
2015-03-18T15:36:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33019 |
| Yes, that is a lot of what happened. | 2015-03-18T15:34:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/18/smaller-government-peaceful-government/#comment-33018 |
| Ah, yes! :-) |
2015-03-17T05:29:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32945 |
| West End of St Paul, dude. Only way to go. | 2015-03-17T02:44:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32937 |
| Ideally. Hasn't worked out that way yet, however. | 2015-03-16T20:54:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32928 |
| South Minneapolis? Blech. | 2015-03-16T20:52:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32927 |
| Our politicians need to be on top of them first and foremost - they are the ones literally throwing money at the Pentagon with no accountability. | 2015-03-16T16:09:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32921 |
| Excellent, thanks for the professional opinion! | 2015-03-16T16:08:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32920 |
| States are required to be in balance at all times and are subject to more pressure from the bond market. Only the Feds could really be counter-cyclical, although they should work with states to do it. | 2015-03-16T16:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32919 |
| We do spend a lot on harmful things, yes. Your example of a football stadium is at least relatively neutral! If that was what we were fighting about, unalloyed good versus feel-good extravagance, I'd be happy. But yes, there is another component to this. For now, I would be happy separating out what we really spend on capital and, yes, insisting that the expenses (including interest) are indeed balanced. It seems only reasonable. But at some point a good discussion of what we get for the money is essential. As for jails - we need some, sure, but how many? When does it become the mark of a police state? It would be easier to highlight some of these costs if they were spun out, too. And if the major infrastructure cost is indeed roads it points to more gasoline tax, etc. The beauty of a good budget is that it visibly shows priorities - but our budget today is so confusing we can't see a damned thing. |
2015-03-16T15:26:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32914 |
| Exactly! A stable source of work that, if anything, is a bit counter-cyclical would help us all tremendously. And there's no reason why we can't do that if we keep our capital budget separate. | 2015-03-16T15:21:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32913 |
| Our defense spending is way beyond what anyone could consider reasonable, and definitely could be pared down - even cut in half. http://erikhare.com/2014/09/12/global-policeman-again/ We must re-prioritize this and audit the pentagon to assure that what funds they do have are being used efficiently. |
2015-03-16T15:20:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32912 |
| I sadly have to agree, however, at some point the system we have will break and have to be rebuilt. This is one thing to keep in the hopper. | 2015-03-16T15:18:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/16/capital-idea/#comment-32911 |
| Thank you for reading and commenting! You are too kind! |
2015-03-14T23:21:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32853 |
| Reporting what is said at a forum makes you a primary source. :-) The quality of what is said is one piece of potential news, that it was said by a particular bureaucrat is another. I try to be pretty loose about these things that are clearly opinion, but there is still a place for truth in the world - I hope! |
2015-03-14T23:21:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32852 |
| Politics is "The art and science of human interaction." It is indeed everywhere, and often specific, ie "office politics", "gender politics", etc. I am a liberal in the sense that I believe that all politics and economics should be in the service and concern of people - not power or money for their own sake. But that doesn't mean that conservatives aren't right sometimes about the best way to serve people and make things happen. I love a good argument about these things and I do love being proved wrong because my arguments improve - there is no better way to become smarter. More than anything, I believe in being respectful of other people and when they express themselves I want to acknowledge it and thank them. Yes, more readers is a good thing to me. I hope to get more pay doing this kind of thing. :-) |
2015-03-14T23:18:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32851 |
| If he does something interesting, let's hear about it! | 2015-03-14T23:15:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32849 |
| Good point. We can expect a lot more of this. But Hillary has to be able to manage it all the same - and it will intensify. | 2015-03-13T18:13:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32818 |
| I am sure. They do seem to hate being called on their crazy. | 2015-03-13T18:12:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32817 |
| Which can be used to find something that is possible, but not prove that it is true. Generalization from one observation is the tool of a large number of cranks and crazies in the world - and quite frankly the source of nearly all evil including racism, sexism, etc. |
2015-03-13T17:55:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32814 |
| The key for her to "manage inevitability" (a phrase I'm trying to get to catch on!) is managing the scrutiny that every little thing is going to get. This one was totally botched, IMHO, even if there is nothing at the heart of it. She looks bad. | 2015-03-13T14:50:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32809 |
| You have an original document, which is good. And like many such thing, it contains some eye-opening parts to worry about. Military documents are hard to come by, as they are classified, and we also don't have a solid budget to compare operations costs to and see what's really going on. They deserve a lot more scrutiny. So yes, by all means, use the original source! But that has nothing to say to my point, which is that we are almost certainly not sending advisors to ISIL right now. That point says nothing about what awful things our military and/or CIA might be doing elsewhere, however. |
2015-03-13T14:48:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32808 |
| I stand corrected on the interference in foreign policy - while it's rare, it's hardly unprecedented. And I do firmly believe that talk about "traitors!" is way over-blown. Let the public decide - although in foreign policy a little more prudence is needed. Is Obama that different from Bush when it comes to War? Not different enough for me, to be honest. Your points are well taken all around, and I do want to see a new view on all of this. Desperately. The world is changing - our relationship to it must change as well! |
2015-03-13T14:45:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32807 |
| There are reasonable differences of opinion on ISIL and what we should do about it, for sure. But to say we are actively advising them while we bomb? That seems to me to require extraordinary proof - and none has been presented yet. You don't like comparing Hillary to Charles? :-) It was silly, I admit. The Democratic establishment has been treating her like him - both for good and bad - IMHO. As for sources - I think bloggers absolutely need them since they are not doing original reporting in the field. |
2015-03-13T14:38:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32805 |
| A good one. We really don't know yet just what she was doing. It seems to be a matter of convenience more than anything, but it seems pretty strange all around. | 2015-03-13T14:33:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32803 |
| That has to be the best compliment I have ever received! Thank you! | 2015-03-13T14:32:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32802 |
| Yes, that is the problem. I think we have some more examples here. | 2015-03-13T14:31:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/13/new-season-old-stories/#comment-32801 |
| Hold on now - I am NOT saying we should apologize - I'm saying we BOTH have to apologize systematically. And I'm saying that this is about far more than just nukes - we have to get Iran to stop supporting Hamas, etc. If we can do that at the negotiating table we damned well should. Anyone have any other method to get that to happen? If you do, I'm all ears. | 2015-03-12T05:40:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32760 |
| I understand that you want to take on the US War Machine. Just don't let yourself become a useful tool of the Russian War Machine in the process is all I ask. Have we done horrible things in the past? For capricious and unthinking reasons? Have we caused incredible suffering for picayunish reasons that actually harm our overall standing? Yes to all of that. But you can't pin Ukraine on us, no matter how hard RT tries. And your rant that includes a hilariously off-point personal attack only proves the point that I have been making all along - there is nothing there aside from Russian propaganda. I still see this primarily as a battle between two organized crime units, one based in Moscow and the other in Kiev, for control. And the good people who risked their lives in Maidan are in the crossfire between these gangs. I think you did a far better job of proving my point that this has become conflated with a lot of nonsense far better than I ever could. And I thank you for that. But please, think first about the good people of Ukraine and what they have to deal with first. If it's not about people and their aspirations for a better life then there's no point to any politics anywhere. |
2015-03-11T19:27:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32747 |
| Yes, they always manage to find a new hole. | 2015-03-11T16:11:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32742 |
| Two points on the "coup": 1) After Yanukovich fled, there were elections for President and the Rada (Parliament) within months. Are you alleging that these were not free and open and genuinely reflected the will of the people? Because no one, not even RT, has made that claim. And the installation of a properly elected government makes any claims of a "coup" one year ago moot. 2) There is no original source for these claims that it was a "coup". There are many threads of it bubbling together, many of which do indeed come from RT. There are quotes from various people taken terribly out of context, and there is the famous hacked phone call from Estonian FM Paet that is often taken very much out of context where he repeats some rumors for the EU FM. But there is no original source for these claims, no. As for Brzezinsky is one private person, and as a Pole seems to take a standard line among many Poles that Eastern Europe must be liberated from the Russians. There is nothing new in this proposal of his, and it is only a proposal, that the US has a central role in doing this. The question you should ask is, "Have we really done that?" The answer is no, we have not. Despite signing the Bucharest Memorandum in 1994 when Ukraine gave up nuclear arms and we promised to protect their sovereignty, we have not marched into there. We have every justification for doing so, but have not. Do you allege that we installed a government in Ukraine and then, despite a treaty obligation, deliberately left them to their own devices? Lastly, the theft of credit card information from Target and many other places has been traced to the Ukrainian Bratva (mafia). No one has been rounded up for this, ever. If we have such a strong corporate influence in Ukraine, why have we not put a stop to this? Why have we not gone after the perpetrators? The only conclusion that makes sense is that our influence in Ukraine is minimal and that this talk of a "coup" falls utterly flat in how it has played out since in our actions and the subsequent elections. And the lack of a genuine original source shows where the problem is in this case. |
2015-03-11T16:10:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32741 |
| In many cases, yes, that does seem to be what's going on. | 2015-03-11T04:06:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32723 |
| Jimmy Carter. Wait, if Angela Merkel can stare down Putin, we should send her in! | 2015-03-11T02:55:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32719 |
| OK, that's fair enough! We certainly screwed up Ukraine badly, and by that I mean the US and the EU. Skill and leadership are huge problems in the West right now all around. | 2015-03-11T02:46:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32716 |
| Thank you! And you do have a good point. We have a tremendous nuclear arsenal still, and the scandals relating to how we operate it are rather scary. That might be a good way to get some movement on the issue as we disarm. | 2015-03-11T02:44:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32714 |
| The state of journalism is very appalling, and does have a lot to do with the "instant reaction" that propels grandstanding. The way that blogs repeat stories and then add or conflate things that should not be present is very disturbing. I am trying to set a higher standard, but I am just one person. What is more important to me is that we have great discussion and comments from people like you - telling me where I'm wrong and modifying where I'm half-right. I think this works pretty well all in all. So thank you for commenting! And yes, climate change isn't about polar bears. In my family when we do something not quite environmentally friendly, like eat fast food in the car, we joke that "The polar bears are gonna take it for this one." It's crass, it's silly, but we have fun with it. It's a reminder that this is a bigger issue than most of us can handle. |
2015-03-11T02:42:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32713 |
| My feelings exactly. Our state is run well, and most states actually are. But to watch the legislature in action is sickening all the same. At the Federal level it is totally dysfunctional at best. Treason? I wouldn't go that far. But it sure was dumb. |
2015-03-11T02:38:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32712 |
| Yes, pretty much. | 2015-03-11T02:36:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/11/grandstanding-not-governing/#comment-32711 |
| Here is where I am coming from: Iran, as it stands now, is intolerable. Given that, what are we going to do about it? We've sealed them off from the rest of the world better than any other nation, but they are still about the same. Anything that can be done to potentially break the stalemate has to be tried. No, we shouldn't give up the important goal of a non-nuclear Iran in negotiations. But we should be at the table trying. It's worth it to everyone - especially Iran, and we need to make them understand that. |
2015-03-11T02:35:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32710 |
| Thanks! | 2015-03-09T16:37:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32665 |
| Good point! | 2015-03-09T16:37:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32664 |
| Thank you very much! :-) I want to encourage people to find these sources as much as possible to cut down on the dreck that gets attached to very important stories. Sensationalism and raw propaganda helps no one. | 2015-03-09T16:37:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32663 |
| Good stuff. It is worth seeing that again, yes. | 2015-03-09T16:35:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32662 |
| That's a good way to look at it. I was thinking of tracing how the Monsanto / Ukraine story evolved, but I think it's pretty obvious what happened here. People kept adding to it as it was repeated. | 2015-03-09T16:35:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/09/the-original-source/#comment-32661 |
| It is useful to the regime to have a bogeyman in the US, so we are blamed for nearly everything. There are many liberals there and they march in the streets, respectfully, every Friday before prayers in Tehran. Things may yet change. | 2015-03-06T21:54:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32604 |
| You know, from his perspective you do have a point. OK, I'll be easier on Bibi - but only that far. :-) | 2015-03-06T04:42:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32583 |
| A good point, but remember that there is a LOT of money in it for them if they play by the rules. I would also wave that in front of their faces as much as possible, and if they didn't blink wave it in front of the young people who are a bit tired of living under the mullahs. | 2015-03-06T04:41:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32581 |
| Amen to that. I'm all in favor of breaking that cycle any way we can. In a lot of places, like Iran, we have only so much leverage - but I think we should do what we can. And that rarely means using our military to do work like that, IMHO. | 2015-03-06T04:09:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32575 |
| Again, they have never had a practical deal maker with any real power - the office of President isn't really that important, it seems. Khatami seemed pretty reasonable, but no one listened to him. Will they listen to Rouhani, if he is indeed practical? A lot to ask, so we'll have to see. I'm not saying this is an easy thing - if the P5+1 couldn't make any real progress in 9 years you know it's a bad problem. But I will say it's worth trying. Generational change is happening in Iran and someday, maybe a long time from now but someday, it has to change. |
2015-03-06T04:01:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32572 |
| I didn't get into it, but apparently they did sign the NPT under the Shah. That's why they are subject to inspection. They could have refused to keep going along with it after the Revolution, and sometimes they have, but mostly they seem to respect it in some form. It seems complicated, which is why I didn't get into it. It's not clear what they think of the NPT today. | 2015-03-06T03:57:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32570 |
| How can they trust us after we engineered a coup against their government and shot down their plane? It goes both ways, and both sides are in a slightly-warm war with each other. That's why I proposed a trust building exercise like I did. I don't expect it to cure all problems, but it seems to be a pre-requisite for getting anything done. We have to willingly push the reset button - both of us. If they aren't willing to do that I agree - we can't trust them. And nothing good can come when there is no trust. |
2015-03-06T03:55:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32568 |
| I have to reluctantly agree with you about the Mullahs - they are definitely holding the whole nation back while they dream of bigger ambitions. But Rouhani is at least a lot more practical than most, it seems. I think he is ultimately a deal maker. | 2015-03-06T03:50:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32566 |
| It all comes down to mistrust of this administration. But this is a UN Security Council operation led by us, not our show entirely. Perhaps that means even less trust in the end, but it's the way it is. And yes, there is more risk in not talking, given the status as a rogue nation. | 2015-03-06T03:49:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/06/iranian-ambition-the-great-chessgame/#comment-32565 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-03-05T18:10:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-32534 |
| I think this is a topic that needs a return to the basics. The press seems to assume that we know all about it, but over the many years people don't remember the details as to how we got here. | 2015-03-05T04:27:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32495 |
| Indeed. | 2015-03-04T17:14:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32471 |
| The Post Office Bank may be a good solution for small loans. There used to be simple usury laws to regulate the maximum interest - that would help a lot as well. But yes, there is a need for this as desperate as you have to be to, as you say, "borrow trouble". | 2015-03-04T17:13:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32470 |
| There is a definite need for bridge loans to payday, and a business came in to fill that need. But it's a predatory one that is in the process of being regulated a lot more, state by state. | 2015-03-04T17:12:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32468 |
| Thank you for this. I didn't know that the UK went to a universal monthly payday. That is a horrible burden on people - and the additional effects on small shops is something I would assume no one saw coming. Just terrible. The idea that people have to pay rent a month in advance is particularly shocking. Just a horrible situation all around. |
2015-03-04T17:11:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32467 |
| Wow. Thanks for your story, I can only imagine how horrible that was before you finally got clear of it! | 2015-03-04T17:08:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32465 |
| I haven't looked at the underground economy lately, but the last time I did it was big and, as you said, unreported. | 2015-03-04T17:07:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/04/payday-cant-come-fast-enough/#comment-32464 |
| Yes, they will. There's a lot more money out there. I'm watching velocity to see when it changes from its downward spiral. That has been fueled by a lot more money coming into the economy than there was economic growth. When there is economic growth we have to watch out. The one thing that can save us is demographics - a large retired population tends to keep inflation down, along with velocity. |
2015-03-03T19:38:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32411 |
| Thanks, I am going to have to digest this. But I think it makes sense to me that the "banking glut", ie an excess application of supply-side easing during depression conditions in the early 2000s, is the problem. It's worth thinking through. | 2015-03-03T19:36:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32410 |
| No, I am not. Haven't heard that. It makes some sense in depression conditions, but with all the debt it also doesn't make sense. Link? | 2015-03-02T20:43:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32379 |
| That is always the goal - a rising tide lifting all boats. It doesn't often happen, however. Policy makers have to work for it - and Yellen very much is. So are the other Fed Governors, or at least some of them. It's so strange that they are on the side of working and poor people while Congress is on the 1% side. | 2015-03-02T16:30:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32374 |
| Yes, in order to get an incentive to save the Fed Funds Rate has to be about 3% or more - which is, incidentally, what we calculate it should be. So we are far from encouraging savings, and that is a problem. | 2015-03-02T16:28:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32373 |
| Very much so. I appreciate her a lot - we would be sunk without her. Imagine Greenspan and his gnomish routine about now ... | 2015-03-02T16:27:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32372 |
| Absolutely! Bernanke was good, but Yellen is exactly who we need in that position. | 2015-03-02T16:26:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-32371 |
| Amen, brother! I've been calling for a serious investment in infrastructure since at least 2009. It has a strong payback, too. http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/ Just imagine if all that money spent on propping up banks had been invested in this way - or if the unemployment benefits extensions had been matched with just a little more for materials and we got something for it all. It's been a big waste so far, but we can always invest in this nation. |
2015-03-02T04:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32358 |
| It's OK, this has no immediate effect on anyone but bond traders! What I think is going to happen is that a quarter point is already priced into mortgages, more or less, so there will be a minimal rise in mortgage rates. I expect that to continue through 2015 with so little pressure on interest rates. The same is going to be true for credit cards, car loans, etc. They will go up slightly, but not a lot. Over the longer haul? We need a stronger economy to help the middle class, and so I don't see them doing much more than a small rate rise this year - despite a reasonable guess that they really could by traditional measures. |
2015-03-02T01:23:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32344 |
| Yes, U6 is the key to me, and probably to Yellen, too. It's at 11.4% the last time I looked, which is to say over 10%. That's not good. I think when that hits 10 we will see some action - but that could easily be this summer if things pick up again. | 2015-03-02T01:20:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/03/02/fed-raising-rates-when/#comment-32343 |
| We simply will not have manufacturing growth until there is a weaker US Dollar. I don't see that happening for a solid decade at this rate. Nothing is stepping up to replace it yet. But I would like to see that, yes. After we adjust to shorter workweeks, that is, because a strong dollar makes a lot of that easier to do. | 2015-02-27T20:52:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32264 |
| I think the law and social practice mesh with each other. You are right that 40 hours as the law means less than it did before, but people still look to it as a standard. Both must change together - you can't just legislate social change! | 2015-02-27T20:50:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32263 |
| The machines, like the economy, have to serve us. That has to be the first principle! | 2015-02-27T20:49:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32262 |
| Thank you for that link! We may well be moving there, yes. I can see it. | 2015-02-27T20:48:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32261 |
| Thank you for your comments. I do agree there is a lot more peril as we move ahead than I certainly have talked about here. I wanted to present the case for how we will have to get a handle on the changes and make them work for us. It may not happen at first, and there may be a lot more upheaval before we get to where we need to be. Look at all the people that died in riots before unions were accepted, for example! That may well happen again. But I see the change as ultimately moving us from a world based on want to a world based on excess. Marx had a lot to say about this, and it is interesting. | 2015-02-27T20:48:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32260 |
| That is definitely a requirement. I think Sen Warren is getting it started, at least! The politics probably will happen last, as it usually does, so look for a movement first. | 2015-02-27T20:44:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32259 |
| So .... you don't like them? :-) I was thinking of an example from Japan's vending machine culture, but I wanted something more US based. I'm sure I can come up with other examples. | 2015-02-27T20:43:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32258 |
| It is humbling here! We are all equal in the pain we endure. :-) | 2015-02-27T20:42:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32257 |
| Thanks! I hope to get something going ... | 2015-02-27T20:41:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32256 |
| We need better pizza, too. | 2015-02-27T20:40:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32255 |
| Thanks! More than anything I hope we can talk about this. I wanted to present the positive case, which is to say what we can do to counter a problem - the way it was done before. | 2015-02-27T20:39:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32254 |
| Thanks! I wanted to present the potential positive argument, because it is possible. We need to organize - and the coming shortage of workers may be the opportunity. | 2015-02-27T00:42:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/27/redefining-work/#comment-32208 |
| Gotcha. This is very good stuff, and thank you! There's a lot to digest here. I'm worrying more about macro-level effects of the economy (dare I say, "post-industrial"?) today but this fits into it very well. | 2015-02-26T20:23:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32192 |
| I think it's best to compare overhead between workers in developed and developing nations. It's not clear just how much pensions raise the overhead for German workers, as an example, so I have trouble making the comparison. But in their case health care comes from general tax revenue, meaning that there is less tax on employment. The overall compensation is the key, yes, but some of it is a fixed cost. We set up FUTA to be on the first $7k of salary, for example, which is essentially a fixed cost. That's pure overhead. It would be great to cut that back - and I am thinking about how we can have that come from corporate income taxes rather than as an employment tax. I'd also really like to have the employers FICA 7.62% come from the same source, but that's a huge change. Reducing this overhead has a solid chance for at least reducing the cost to employers of a solid Minimum Wage increase, for example, which would make an interesting bargain overall. |
2015-02-26T19:12:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32190 |
| Sorry to be so slow, I missed this. The value of the USD doesn't fluctuate with trade because trade doesn't fluctuate - it's steady. 85% of it is USD denominated, versus about 25% that goes through the US. That 60% of the roughly $45T in trade in 2015 is about $27T in USD that moves around the world above and beyond what you would expect if we weren't in this position. If you figure that central banks carry about 3 months worth of USD backed bonds to support their need for USD, this comes to about $7T in debt that we can float above and beyond what we should be able to otherwise. It's also about what our foreign debt holdings are right now. Without this we would have to finance ourselves, and be a lot more careful with our debt than we have been. It's a big effect. |
2015-02-26T19:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32189 |
| Well, the Euro is off about 20%. We can all buy a Mercedes, I guess. Or a Fiat. Wait ... Belgian Chocolate. Yeah! |
2015-02-26T05:03:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32174 |
| What we should do to help the global economy is far from obvious to me, however. | 2015-02-25T22:22:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32169 |
| I should do a "Dashboard" update to see where we are with that. I agree that right now they tell us they are watching inflation, but does that mean that as long as inflation is low we will have low rates? It seems to. I think it is time to get out of the "liquidity trap" and have some reward for saving - as well as to put a little pressure on speculative investment based on super cheap money. Screw inflation. | 2015-02-25T22:22:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32168 |
| Can you tell us more? Links? I am assuming that given people's ability to adapt to any situation and a genuinely free market that always springs up in some limited form no matter what there have to be fascinating crisis stories, yes! I'm not sure about "post-international" - the world is always going to have a global component now that trade is set up the way it is. But a balance with local resiliency and sustainability will mark the difference between a developed economy that works for everyone and an exploitive economy that enslaves. I would want to know what kind of genuine market springs up to create that, yes, because it seems to be the key. Can you tell us more! Always interested. I can't say I have anything other than observations from halfway around the world! |
2015-02-25T17:00:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32164 |
| As long as there was warm land to pillage, why not? :-) | 2015-02-25T16:44:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32162 |
| That is true, too. Space between people has a lot to do with attitudes! | 2015-02-25T16:44:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32161 |
| Thanks. It is. I just want to curl up and sleep! | 2015-02-25T16:43:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32160 |
| Perhaps it is more about heritage than anything else. The Midwest is indeed very German, which does emphasize privacy. But you have to give me the egalitarian "we are all the same" attitude as a cold weather feature. The cold does humble us! :-) | 2015-02-25T16:43:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/25/humbling-cold/#comment-32159 |
| I am starting to agree that, in the past, Greece has acted like a petulant child. If things have really changed then they deserve better. Reform of their tax system so that the government actually raises the revenue it needs seems to be the key. If they can pull that off they deserve a chance to do this on their own terms, IMHO. If nothing else they will finally have the ability to do so. | 2015-02-25T16:41:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32158 |
| Perhaps I was too hard on the EU. I agree that under the last government Greece went in on their knees and asked what they had to do. But things are different now with Syriza in charge. Will it be good enough? At least Greece has a Greek plan to deal with it, and both sides appear to be talking about a real, permanent solution. It's good, but it will take time. | 2015-02-25T16:39:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32157 |
| Thanks! | 2015-02-24T17:53:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-32122 |
| Thanks. The more I consider this and read the horrible job the press is doing the more outraged I am. Greece went to the EU on their knees and asked what they had to do. Now they have a new government that is standing up and doing something proactive. It's not being reported at all. The write-down (not a "haircut") on the bonds is a big part of the story. |
2015-02-24T06:29:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32108 |
| Thanks! | 2015-02-24T06:07:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-32106 |
| I like it! | 2015-02-24T05:08:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32104 |
| It looks to me like Greece has it's (feces) together much more than Europe does right now. | 2015-02-23T18:21:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32094 |
| Yes, that is the whole point. Dragging it out doesn't help anything. I remember a story from the one bank that survived the bank panics in the 1920s. The first day they made everyone wait in line, and the line grew. The second day they realized they were making it worse, and gave everyone their money quickly. No line formed. With no line, the flow of people demanding their money stopped, and some of the people from the previous day came back. Confidence is the key, and Europe has done nothing to create that. So they don't trust the Greek government - they need to get that government to the point where everyone trusts it and Europe has their back. |
2015-02-23T16:08:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32088 |
| Doesn't he look like someone you just wouldn't want to mess with? I think the Eurocrats have finally met their match. Thanks! |
2015-02-23T16:06:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32087 |
| I think it will be. They need to be treated properly, and that appears to finally be happening. | 2015-02-23T16:05:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/23/greece-stands-up/#comment-32086 |
| So what are we going to do to change that? What can we change so that the workers at least have the protections they need? It's one thing to complain but another to work for real change. | 2015-02-20T20:56:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32021 |
| A deal was reached at the last possible second. They do indeed get to muddle through another four months. What comes next? We will have to see. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31556754 |
2015-02-20T20:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-32019 |
| Thanks for your comment! Your story is far too familiar. But this is the reality that we have to learn to deal with. I have a few ideas for a new post on this topic. I really do feel that major changes are in order if this is the new reality. | 2015-02-20T20:46:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32018 |
| That's a good point. It's really PT work in the first place, meaning that employee overhead is a HUGE issue, among other problems. If that's the case, and it seems to be for me, then this is certainly a permanent trend that reflects the nature of work itself. I keep wondering about Jim's comment as to whether this is a depression-end event or a real trend. I don't really know yet. |
2015-02-20T20:20:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32015 |
| A good point. But I wonder what skills wind up being in the gig economy and how people acquired them. I think that's a very big question, and I don't even know where to look for an answer. But I'll think about it. | 2015-02-20T20:18:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-32014 |
| There is definitely an upper limit, but I don't think we are anywhere near it. More to the point, enough of the economy is in this kind of work now that we need reform just to accommodate what we have today - even if the level doesn't rise. How are workers protected? What does "unemployment insurance" mean in this environment? How are we handling health care? How are we taxing, especially FICA? There is a lot to think through and make serious changes. And we have a broken government that is incapable of even measuring the problem. |
2015-02-20T04:21:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-31995 |
| Several things here: First of all, I don't believe the BLS "lies". The U6 Unemployment rate is there for everyone to see, and it's still at 11.4%. That's down considerably, but a very large number. Nearly everyone agrees it's a good number, but the press hardly reports it. The problem we have with this, and all economic issues, is that the quality of reporting is horrible. I refer to that when it comes to the transparency of the Fed as well. Secondly, I agree that technology tends to reduce the number of jobs needed. I have speculated that there seems to be a limited amount of paid work in a developed economy, and that does seem to go down with more technology. It implies that the workweek has to be shortened or other social arrangements simply have to change to accommodate this. I think that Kurt Vonnegut saw this coming more than 60 years ago - and he was right. The trade imbalance comes from many things. The US Dollar as the world currency means that there is an increasing demand for the greenback proportional not to our economy but to the growth in world trade generally. Our greatest export becomes US Dollars - and it makes our manufacturing very expensive. Add to that a very high overhead per employee and the opportunities for working people are very limited. There is so much reform needed at many levels - and part of it seems to be a need for a new world currency based on trade. I'll read your stuff too and comment. But free trade agreements are good for everyone in the long run - but given the imbalances we have built into the system they are playing Hell on the working people of the US right now. If we are going to insist on free trade we should be taking much more positive reform action here at home, IMHO. Reply with some specific links, but I'll peruse your stuff as I can in the meantime. Yes, let's all talk about this! | 2015-02-20T04:18:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/20/contracted-change/#comment-31994 |
| Touché, mon frere! Yes, they will muddle through right up until the moment it is not possible to muddle through. I think that is still a ways away, but I admit that this is possibly much sooner than later. I am watching for signs that they are done. What would you watch for? Can we agree on the signs of death in advance? Good article, BTW, thanks! |
2015-02-20T02:24:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31990 |
| News Flash! Germany fudges like real Europeans always should http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/germany-leaves-door-open-to-deal-based-on-greek-proposal They are all pretty amazing at times, IMHO. Totally predictable, totally fudgy. |
2015-02-20T01:35:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31988 |
| First of all, EVERYONE needs an editor. Max Perkins, as an editor, made Great Gatsby as much as Fitzgerald. Second, the more practice you have as an editor the more you can learn to edit your own stuff - which is always much harder than editing someone else's. Now, the excuses ... YES - this needs a tough editor! It's also an old piece, about 15 years old. I know I can do a better job now because I've had a lot of practice. I should pull this down, but ... now that you've given very good criticism I'll leave it as an example. Yes, yes, yes! All around. You are right. Writing in vernacular spoken English is much harder than it looks. I have been practicing it for years and only recently have felt that I have it "down". It's worth reflecting on times when the rendering of spoken language doesn't work in print and why. |
2015-02-19T23:04:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/songs-poems/short-stories/noon/#comment-31976 |
| We will see if I am optimistic, indeed. It's turned a bit south since I wrote this, with Germany rebelling against Brussels and refusing to provide a six month bridge loan. But I think they will patch it together. Actually, I think I am as cynical as I am optimistic because I don't believe they will do something real or lasting, but really fudge how the whole thing is handled. |
2015-02-19T20:49:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31973 |
| It will be an excellent time for it! Everything is about 20% off with the Euro tanking. | 2015-02-18T19:23:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31942 |
| Yes. They have to take a stand and make it stick. | 2015-02-18T04:08:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31928 |
| Yes, that would make the most sense. I should calculate out how much debt that would buy down. According to this, they have $12T outstanding. The stimulus they have proposed is about $1.4T, so if each nation had the same amount as a proportion of GDP bought down it would certainly get Greece down into a more servicable range. http://www.eudebtclock.org/ | 2015-02-18T04:07:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31927 |
| I think that is in the cards, and exactly how Russia responds is an open question. It puts a lot of pressure on Putin, but the people of Russia have been fed a steady diet of propaganda that might steady them for a long fight against "fascism". | 2015-02-18T03:50:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31924 |
| There is only a little fighting going on, and the real test comes when Russia needs to remove its heavy weapons - which is now. If they don't do that I think the main action will be economic (though very nasty) and I hope not too much military. | 2015-02-18T02:07:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31920 |
| If Russia doesn't hold to the peace agreement by removing the heavy weapons, they will see their banking system cut off from the rest of the world by having SWIFT access removed. I hope that there isn't significant military action taken, though I fear there may be along with the very tough sanctions. | 2015-02-18T01:56:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31918 |
| That sounds like a good idea all around. | 2015-02-18T01:36:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31916 |
| Thank you for reading! One thing I didn't include in this piece, since it's really about Europe and not Russia, is something another German friend said to me recently. "How can Russia and Ukraine choose war?" he asked. "They suffered more than anyone. They must know better." Amen, mein Bruder. |
2015-02-18T01:36:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/18/europe-muddles-through/#comment-31915 |
| I didn't take any offense, but I do like it when people challenge me! Original sources are really important to the 'net and I wish more people use them. Thanks! | 2015-02-16T18:31:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31873 |
| I agree, Merkel is the one that can come out of this a real winner. BUT - they do have to find an alternative source of gas before we can see a real endgame. I can't see Russia ever playing nice as long as they have a monopoly. | 2015-02-16T18:29:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31872 |
| The Russians totally outfoxed the "free market" in this one. They always had a bigger, better deal in the works that made any alternative for Azeri gas (and anyone else in the region) not viable. As it stands now, Azeri and Armenian gas has to go through Russia. They own the whole European market because of their careful plotting. The EU can be very, very stupid at times. This is why I tend to laugh at conspiracy theories. |
2015-02-16T18:28:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31870 |
| It is largely a matter of cost, but it is an option. They need to site large LNG terminals in places that are safe, but there is one in Croatia that has been ramping up dramatically. The original plan for Israeli gas was all LNG, but they are looking at modifying that for obvious reasons. | 2015-02-16T18:26:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31869 |
| Thank you very much! Keep in mind that I provide links to other articles if you want to know more or don't believe me. :-) | 2015-02-16T18:25:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/16/putin-khameni-netanyahu-and-march/#comment-31868 |
| South Minneapolis? Barf. | 2015-02-14T21:25:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31796 |
| I predicted 87 percent of those things will happen to my children. | 2015-02-13T21:19:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31750 |
| This appears to be the best way to learn things like this, although I still think a program of Industrial Arts is essential in high schools. | 2015-02-13T17:42:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31743 |
| I agree! I can't wait for this generation to start running things. They are practical and dedicated. | 2015-02-13T17:41:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31742 |
| Thanks, it is a lot of fun. And learning all these things is an amazing process. | 2015-02-13T17:41:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/13/the-future-is-theirs/#comment-31741 |
| Since we don't actually declare war any longer, like the Constitution says. | 2015-02-11T20:00:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31655 |
| I think that the shakiness of this whole system is why there were regular panics - and huge spikes in the demand for silver and gold. It's exactly what a Central Bank was created to put a stop to. It's all about going to a system where banks could create reserves of capital and put money to work, rather than sit around in lumps of metal. I should write about this, thanks. This is worth exploring. I think few people understand why we have a modern banking system. |
2015-02-11T19:56:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31653 |
| Thank you for the reblog! | 2015-02-11T19:26:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31651 |
| Thank you! That is indeed where I hope we can find ourselves, at a place where we are looking at the world as abundant and satisfying rather than full of scarcity and struggle. I think we are nearly there by any measure - but we have to change our outlook. That appears to be happening. | 2015-02-11T19:14:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31650 |
| You are most welcome! That is what I mean by "I don't break news, I fix it". :-) | 2015-02-11T19:11:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31649 |
| Thank you! I am going to make good use of this. I expected a lot of flak from people when I posted this, but it is indeed good company to be on the same side as Sen. Warren. In fact, I think I nearly always am! :-) | 2015-02-11T19:08:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31648 |
| They were very transparent about buying all the public debt, but it does deserve more explanation. If I were in Congress I would ask Yellen a lot of questions about it during her testimony. That hasn't really been done yet. Congress can, and should, get more direction from them on this matter and use the power of oversight that they have to at least understand the risk fully. | 2015-02-11T19:06:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31647 |
| See answer above. You want to make change? Look for the real enemies and get something done. | 2015-02-11T19:04:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31646 |
| The mainstream press does not report anything related to the Fed worth a damn, no. That is indeed the real problem. Alternative sites tend to be anti-Fed and have a huge chip on their shoulder, probably because they are reasonably suspicious of the power the Fed has. But their judgement is horribly clouded and they can't stand it when someone says "It's actually all OK." I am trying to get my head around public debt held by the Fed. The more I think about it, the less I understand the implications, frankly. |
2015-02-11T19:04:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31645 |
| Thank you again for reading and commenting! All of my posts include links to previous articles of mine or outside articles that I think really explain things well, if you want more depth on any one topic. | 2015-02-11T18:58:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31643 |
| The economy is just not firing up the way it should be. Velocity is still very low - but at least not dropping anymore. Can you imagine what it would be like to have Wells Fargo Dollars in hand when you have little of the ol' "Full Faith" in them? It must have been crazy to take paper "promissory notes" back then! |
2015-02-11T18:57:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/11/audit-the-fed/#comment-31642 |
| I guess I can't say why credit is down. It may be all credit card or discretionary debt, but it may be that after foreclosure, short sales, and government bailout refinancing that mortgage debt is down, too. What is happening to the McMansions? A good question. I think the younger generation is much less likely to spend a lot on a home and much more likely to spend on a nice car or something they can wear like clothes and jewelry. They may grow out of that, but something tells me that they'll always want to have their wealth with them to a large extent. Children of a Depression, and all. And, again, it's called a "Depression" because so much of the effect is psychological. |
2015-02-11T00:16:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31588 |
| It's been going down for households since 2008, actually. People just can't get credit. http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TDSP | 2015-02-09T23:26:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31541 |
| I see what you mean. I have to think about this. That's a long period of relative stagnation. But it does fit into what I've noticed before, which is that income inequality has been growing for a very long time (I'd say since 1968). | 2015-02-09T20:02:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31536 |
| Thanks! | 2015-02-09T20:00:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-31535 |
| Thanks! | 2015-02-09T19:59:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31534 |
| I think it's dangerous to use it to keep score. It's so fundamental. But I agree that we shouldn't be so emotional about it. | 2015-02-09T19:58:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31533 |
| Wasn't really supposed to be, but hey ... | 2015-02-09T19:57:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31532 |
| If people lose faith in the Federal Reserve it all breaks down. They have to watch for that. Tricky thing, ain't it? | 2015-02-09T19:57:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/09/money-is-just-a-tool/#comment-31531 |
| Normative responses to inquiries based on the relative attitude towards a public figure generally produce a sub-optimal degree of enlightenment vis a vis the prevailing economic climate. I would like a link for that - I see a lot changed around 1968, but I wasn't aware we had a productivity issue. |
2015-02-07T23:53:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31419 |
| I have to reluctantly agree that Supply SIde management is the best cure for Stagflation, the situation at the start of the 1980s. This is a Kondratieff "Summer", a situation that occurs once every four business cycles, or about 70 years as it runs now. There is also a time for Keynsian Demand Side Management, which is right now, also every 70 years. In between, solid management with an eye towards a free market that is truly accessible by everyone is the way to go. Wonder what it takes to have that kind of long-term wisdom in a democratic republic, eh? Seems unlikely, but we have to try. |
2015-02-06T19:36:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31353 |
| I could not agree more! If you want a healthy supply of investment, the key has to be savings. That democratizes the investment market and helps everyone out in the long run. This separation between an investment class and a working class is not good for anyone. The solution is that everyone has some investment income and everyone works - and there are rules in place that truly democratize and open up all the processes. I should write about this more. I do have a bit of a vision. |
2015-02-06T19:33:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31352 |
| We don't. However, the rise of the developing world will certainly pick up at some point, assuming they get their acts together. The rise of a real middle class is not going to wait forever in many of these nations, like Malaysia, Indonesia, Brasil, etc. We can expect it to come in fits and starts, but the trend is inevitable, IMHO. As for the US, I think we are well situated assuming we get some much needed reforms through. The retirement of the Baby Boomers will open up jobs and put upward pressure on wages - which as I've shown we are just starting to see. It's all a matter of managing the aging population appropriately, and to that end we have some things in place but not enough. But I think we'll do fine, if not very well. We aren't Europe or Japan, which have huge demographic and structural problems. They could drag the world down even more than they are now. And then there is China. If they develop a working middle class everyone will be fine. I have no idea what that will take. They may have to have a long pause and some political turmoil before that happens, which will be painful. |
2015-02-06T19:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/06/the-expectations-game/#comment-31351 |
| I have always loved it, too. It comes back to me in a lot of hard times, like a beacon of hope. There are some great memories that come rushing back whenever I sing it! Thanks for reading and commenting! |
2015-02-05T20:01:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31293 |
| It is! But it is far from perfect and may actually introduce more volatility. Too much speculation has ruined the futures markets, IMHO. | 2015-02-04T18:05:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31241 |
| It may go back up to that by the summer, too, but I expect more like $3. It can't last forever, but we will see reduced production before that happens. It's not scaling back yet. | 2015-02-04T18:04:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31240 |
| My pleasure! Thank you for reading and commenting! | 2015-02-04T04:02:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31204 |
| I have in the past indulged in the speculation that this is a plot to screw Russia. But the truth is that there was no increase in supply - just a drop in demand and a rise in the US Dollar. There is no actual proof there is more to it than that. In the past, Saudi Arabia has been willing to cut production to boost the price to benefit OPEC. They aren't doing that now. My guess is that in a non-OPEC world they are unwilling to surrender market share and figure they can ride this out because they have the lowest cost of production. In short, it's more about protecting their interests in the long run than anything else. All politics, and business, is local after all. |
2015-02-04T04:02:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31203 |
| We're not freaks for grammar here. :-) Oil is so low that it will delay the hunt for alternatives, yes, and it also hurts American jobs in the oil patch. But overall it's good for the economy because we still consume an awful lot of it. | 2015-02-04T03:59:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/04/a-slippery-commodity/#comment-31202 |
| And switched to a new one together. Yes, it's an ongoing issue, but I do feel that race is at least more complicated in the South. Big hunks of it are pretty cool now. Then again, Nawlins is still very uptight about the smallest shade differences. | 2015-02-03T05:36:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31137 |
| Racism has nothing to do with the South - it's an American story. Where I grew up in Florida I had the feeling that people were far more willing to confront the racial problem than they are here up North. That's not true for everywhere in the South, but a lot of it. | 2015-02-02T21:57:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31116 |
| I will try to once per week. | 2015-02-02T20:24:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31108 |
| Thank you! | 2015-02-02T20:23:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31107 |
| I agree. I have talked about this before, along with the whole sad history between Russia and Ukraine. It isn't discussed enough to give Americans any real context to this conflict. | 2015-02-02T20:23:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-31106 |
| Thank you very much! | 2015-02-02T20:22:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/02/02/lift-every-voice-sing/#comment-31105 |
| I think a lot of Russians don't. The polls may be propaganda, it's always hard to tell. | 2015-02-01T04:14:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-31007 |
| Don't get me started! This frustrates me no end. A big problem in the Ukraine / Russia situation is that the only English language news we get from the region comes from Russia. So we have a huge problem with Russian propaganda filling the minds of people who are prone to this philosophy in the first place. I don't blame them for being skeptical of the lame US media and their line, but if they weren't lazy and/or ignorant they'd at least try a bit harder - maybe learn a little French or German, or seek out KyivPost.com But they don't. It's sad. The hard left is increasingly isolationist, and I'm sort of OK with that. But I'm far more internationalist by nature, which is to say get us out of the front of every problem and give us a strong supporting role. And I do with that people who have problems with the US are at least capable of understanding there is real evil out there that we do have to resist. We have to have a strong moral center to our policy, not an icy cynicism. Yes, the Republicans back their own bad people. But Democrats more and more just whine about stuff and look for proof of their elaborate conspiracy theories in hindsight. Not for me. |
2015-01-31T23:10:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30990 |
| THIS is something I can agree with! However, there will be a lot of death and suffering before that happens. | 2015-01-30T18:36:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30916 |
| He has done this before - In Chechnya. No one stopped him. We have to stop him eventually, yes, but I don't think this can continue forever given how weak their economy is. | 2015-01-30T18:36:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30915 |
| Nothing good can come of this, no. I think there is a role for us, but I haven't seen it defined yet. I agree that the EU has to take the lead, but when they need us to step up I say we should have their back. | 2015-01-30T18:35:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30914 |
| Ukraine has never really been released from that prison. Even if they are, so much of their history is not "institutionalized" by it. I only hope for the best for everyone. I know that the mafia state of Russia is not an example of Best. | 2015-01-30T04:34:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/30/hot-center-to-a-cold-storm/#comment-30883 |
| Local and state governments were definitely contractionary after 2008, and the Federal was after a binge in 2008-9. The Federal Reserve went whole-hog the opposite. It appears to have worked out, but the amount of QE it took is horrendous. There had to be a better way. As for Europe - honestly, I don't know, and I'm only comforted by the fact that no one seems to know. They have such huge demographic issues on top of the whole "What is Europe?" social and policy problem. I think the German hard-line is probably incorrect just because it's a hard line. But they have a LOT to work out and I wish them the best. As for asking Friedman and Minsky (not so much Steiglitz) I'd throw in Keynes and wish we could have a roarin' panel discussion. But the great minds only live on in what they wrote and what we can interpret, sadly. Not so many great minds today, eh? Larry Summers? Yeesh. |
2015-01-29T19:10:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30862 |
| I completely agree. The stat that I presented here can be used ONLY for a narrow argument that we are finally starting to see upward pressure on wages - a reversal of the trend downward from 2008-2012. A lot has to happen before we can say workers are in good shape, yes, and I still predict that things won't look genuinely positive for another two years. But we can see the trends developing that have the potential to create a real improvement in the life of working families as lessen the inequality problem. That it comes at a time when we can reasonably expect investment income to stagnate is especially interesting, IMHO. |
2015-01-29T17:30:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30857 |
| If you look back at 2012, wages were still falling. Most of the data used for income inequality arguments is older than that. It takes time to have a good picture put together with Gini Index, etc. So my guess is that Income Inequality is already improving, or at least stabilizing. Also worth noting is that this graph can't be used for income inequality arguments by itself, since it leaves out the unemployed (zero income). I can dig up the total earned income charts at the St Louis Fed for that and compare it to investment income. |
2015-01-29T07:20:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30844 |
| I meant supply of available labor or excess labor. | 2015-01-28T21:39:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30821 |
| With a strong Dollar it's unlikely, but the more we have customized / specialized demand the more advantage there is to being local in the same economy. So there is hope! | 2015-01-28T03:37:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30781 |
| Yes! Absolutely. And that will happen once some people start making more money the old fashioned way. Who knows, maybe even manufacturing can become "hot" again! | 2015-01-28T01:19:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/28/a-tale-of-two-classes/#comment-30774 |
| Let's see if you got me being illogical and/or hypocritical. I support Israel, but do think that we should "dial down" support for them - or at least make them think it has its limits. They are aggressive when it comes to settlements and so on. However, they also have Hamas firing rockets at them. It's an immediate threat and I do feel they have a right to respond to that. What makes Israel different from Iran? Iran's ambitions are much larger in both territory and ideology. They are the natural protector of Shias everywhere, and seem to be willing to support a large number of groups with nasty tendencies for just this reason. Isreali nuclear weapons are a problem, yes, but their discretion and limited ambition makes nuclear weapons hardly useful for aggression. Iran, on the other hand, is in a position where nuclear weapons would easily fit into an expansion beyond their boundaries today. To me, that's very different. |
2015-01-27T19:28:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30759 |
| I won't disagree with you on this. The talks with Iran have been fruitless largely because Iran has no interest in complying with any international standards for the conduct of a nation from what I can see. Given that, isolation is a good thing. They got to that point because of their own local political needs - a hardline government clamping down on a society that was quite open and liberal for several generations. Isolation suits them because it prevents outside ideas from leaking in and provides an effective bogeyman to blame all their problems on. That's the rub - it won't change until there is more openness. What kind of openness is needed or even possible? That's where I can't say much more since I'm not there, which is why I don't write about it. How do you crack open the almond? I really don't know. However, a stronger hardline on our part only plays into the hardliners there, I am sure. Status quo until they are willing to join the international community makes sense to me, which means that years of fruitless talks will continue fruitlessly. Harder sanctions will likely be counter-productive. BUT - it's in everyone's interest to have Iran play by the rules. That includes Iran, I am sure. Getting them to that point is probably very nuanced and difficult, and I can't have a strong opinion about it because I'm not there. As for Israel they have several problems here. A nuclear Iran cannot be allowed, yes. But they also need to end support for Hamas from Iran, which is to say there has to be progress. Something has to change. Again, a strict hardline isn't going to be the most productive way to achieve that. That's where I'm coming from on this, but again I don't know enough to chime in on the details. No matter what, I do believe that Netanyahu's speech here is fraught with peril for those who support Israel and/or a hard line on Iran. I wrote this piece in the most neutral tone I could because no matter what anyone's opinion is on Iran or Israel this cannot be seen as a logical or rational thing to do with all the risk. |
2015-01-27T17:09:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30756 |
| A balance is needed even more than liberalization, IMHO, because a balance should provide some stability and peace that will allow liberalization to proceed at its own pace. The UAE, Qatar, and other Gulf Nations are doing pretty well along those lines as Arabia (I refuse to call it "Saudi") stagnates. There is a place for Israel, yes, and Hamas is terrible. But Bibi just pisses me off. |
2015-01-26T20:05:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30718 |
| If you are against our support for Israel, I agree that getting Netanyahu on prime time is a good way to put an end to it. But that seems incredibly destabilizing to me all around. There has to be a sane middle ground (yes, I realize I'm talking about the Middle East when I say that). | 2015-01-26T18:24:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30714 |
| Yes. They should keep Bibi in a closet! | 2015-01-26T18:22:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30713 |
| I could not possibly agree more. I think once Americans see who we are supporting in Israel that support for Israel will drop off to somewhere around the approval rating for Congress. That should demonstrate why a genuine Democracy (ie, not what's going on now) is a desirable thing. I have little doubt that 90% of the American public, once they see what's going on, will make the right choice here. It's THAT obvious. | 2015-01-26T01:27:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30677 |
| Thank you! I am so sure that this is going to be a disaster that I wanted to stake my prediction to the 'net with as much clarity as possible, and do it in a way that there was no taint of partisanship. I want this to be read by everyone. Because I am THAT sure of it - as are you. Perhaps this is really obvious - but it went right past Boehner and the Republican leadership. Are we getting a measure of just how dumb they are? |
2015-01-26T01:25:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/26/bibi-comes-to-washington/#comment-30676 |
| Thank you! | 2015-01-25T21:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/writing-guide/edit-your-own-writing/#comment-30667 |
| One can only hope. | 2015-01-25T21:03:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30666 |
| Carson was a very smart man, if goofy. He knew how to steer the show, as did many of the great raconteurs of the day. Wilmore has the chops for that, yes. I was thinking about how it's a "black" show, and he may just be setting things up before we wanders a bit more. Again, he's very smart and very capable of working from a rather elaborate master plan. I also agree on the economics part. That's a good place to go next. There was a lot of that in the first week as well, so it's far from a stretch. This is going to be good! |
2015-01-25T21:03:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30665 |
| A thousand years is like one day in the mind of the creator. :-) | 2015-01-25T21:00:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30664 |
| The savior from the east, like emperor Vespasian? | 2015-01-23T20:25:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30567 |
| Does this imply that the Vikings are still terrible, or that they won something? | 2015-01-23T20:16:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30563 |
| A good point. I think Wilmore can steer through that pretty well. Now that you mention it, I can't wait for his first controversy! | 2015-01-23T18:02:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30554 |
| Not even if they make money at it? | 2015-01-23T18:01:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30553 |
| I will be watching shortly as well. :-) | 2015-01-23T04:30:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/23/the-nightly-show/#comment-30524 |
| That is basically what I'm saying, yes. It has to blow up like the housing market bubble had to blow up. We can see a lot of this first in economics because people have to be out of survival mode and feeling flush before they can cross artificial lines of color, etc. | 2015-01-22T17:01:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/21/why-economics/#comment-30484 |
| Yes! You gave the environmental example, but we are rarely financially sustainable. We have to watch the budget deficits as well. I think the goal has to be sustainability and resiliency if we want to have a system that benefits everyone. Chaos is beneficial to those with the resources to ride or drive it only. | 2015-01-22T17:00:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/21/why-economics/#comment-30483 |
| Thanks! The discussion and new perspective is what I care about. Times of change require new ways of doing things, an I think we are in such a time. The Asian experience is a troubling one, because capitalism is producing a new middle class. I would argue that they do not typically have very "free markets" yet, and that the real benefits are open to a tiny oligarchy. But that may change, and it's hard for someone in the US to criticize them when we have been heading in the same direction! There will be social change there, too. We've already seen it in some places. Brazil is my favorite example of a developing nation going through growing pains that put people out in the street demanding more - and I expect this to happen in Malaysia and Indonesia sooner rather than later. South Korea did a good job of getting through this already, from what I can tell. But in the end, I leave it to Lao Tzu like i always do: "A great country remains receptive and still, as does a rich and fertile land. The gentle overcomes the strong with stillness and receptivity." Tao Te Ching 61 (Rosenthal) |
2015-01-22T16:58:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/21/why-economics/#comment-30482 |
| Yes, I did write this before the SOTU address and he seems to be focused on the next two years as a transition as well. | 2015-01-22T16:51:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/21/why-economics/#comment-30481 |
| Excellent! :-) | 2015-01-20T17:16:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/16/do-you-get-it/#comment-30342 |
| I have thought about this a lot. I have decided that this is just about the stupidest question I've ever been asked and, as such, is one of the wisest questions I've ever been asked. It deserves an entire 800 word post of its own, which I will do tonight. Thank you for asking the dumb questions, the probes deep into the basic assumptions that make up our world. We live in an "Emperor's New Clothes" kind of time where people do buy their own BS far too much, so it's good to periodically ask why the Emperor is naked. |
2015-01-20T17:16:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-30341 |
| Yes! This is not a huge crisis. But it's a big warning for businesses that rely on global markets. | 2015-01-19T19:16:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/19/franc-ly-you-must-be-kidding/#comment-30283 |
| Any quick change is a bad thing, for one. This hurts the working people of Switzerland by making employment more scarce as their goods are more expensive. Again, the currency war is about making sure your people have the maximum number of jobs. When oil goes down in the US our production goes down and a lot of people lose their jobs. | 2015-01-19T19:15:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/19/franc-ly-you-must-be-kidding/#comment-30282 |
| A lot of people in the 99% might suffer because of this, but you don't care about that at all? | 2015-01-19T19:14:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/19/franc-ly-you-must-be-kidding/#comment-30281 |
| I admit, I didn't see oil going this low - or apparently staying low as it now looks like it will. All I can say is that the Saudis are up to something and that's about all I got right in the first pass at this. As for job growth, by ADP we had a net gain of 2.6M in 2014 vs 2.2M in 2013, which is an acceleration of 15% - not a huge increase, and as I've noted I expected more, but it is going the right way. As for politics, I may have to agree with you there. I guess I'm just being cynical. I really don't see anything that big happening in the next two years with this Congress and this President. |
2015-01-14T18:36:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-29958 |
| I've been largely right so far, though I did expect more out of 2014 than we got. I agree that the big banks could mess things up, but I honestly feel that JP Morgan could fail today and we would hardly notice it. They are barely connected to the real economy at this point. | 2015-01-14T18:19:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-29956 |
| So are we going to take it back? That's the question for politics now that economics is on a more even keel. The system is working - it's a matter of for whom. Well? | 2015-01-14T18:17:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-29955 |
| I know, you don't like my way of looking at the economy and you certainly don't like predictions. But it's been working out so far. | 2015-01-14T18:16:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/14/forward-into-2015-and-beyond/#comment-29954 |
| But did the use of a gun really force respect? Has the terrorists' use of guns given us a new respect for them (which was my point)? The answer is no, it does not. We live in a world lacking in respect in many ways - and guns are apparently not improving that at all. If you think I am "anti-gun", you have a surprise. I am in favor of reasonable regulation, which I think we have in place here in Minnesota. For example, you can't get a concealed carry permit without demonstrating that you know how to use the gun, including a minimum score on a target. That is a good regulation and I support it, but it's hardly restrictive. But does a gun force respect? Logically, it should. But we have discovered that the gun alone does not. No one respects the terrorists and, to counter your point, the US doesn't get all that much respect around the world given how many people continue to mess with us. |
2015-01-14T17:26:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29949 |
| The response to nearly all of this remains what it was in WWII Britain - "Keep Calm and Carry On". Our connected world created the terrorists as well as the venues in which they operate. The more I think about this, the more I realize that aside from talking about respect there is little that we can or should do. A sense of order is very important. | 2015-01-13T20:45:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29888 |
| Yes! Expect that to be the trend of the summer - "Go to Europe, everything is so cheap!" | 2015-01-13T20:40:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/12/inflation-naw/#comment-29887 |
| We will need it. Maybe not now, but eventually. :-) | 2015-01-12T18:01:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/12/inflation-naw/#comment-29826 |
| Thanks! I'm trying to be more practical with it. | 2015-01-12T17:49:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29824 |
| I don't have any suggestions, no. The nature of work is changing so rapidly - here you are talking about being a partner in success while not having the security of a W2! That is indeed happening more and more, but what does it mean? Certainly, the more strategic any business can be the easier it is to have these relationships, but it still seems very casual. | 2015-01-12T17:49:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29823 |
| Thanks! | 2015-01-12T17:47:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29822 |
| It's fun here, except when it's this cold! Thank you for following! | 2015-01-12T17:46:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29821 |
| Yes, Congress really is the antonym of Progress these days. But we have so much to do, it is frustrating to watch them fritter away their power and time on stupid things! | 2015-01-12T17:46:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29820 |
| After the initial shock of the attack there is a lot more talk like this. I am glad. I don't want to blame the cartoonists because no one deserves violent death for their actions, but we cannot forget what lines they crossed. | 2015-01-12T17:44:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29819 |
| You are right, this is not a common thing. A lot about this stands apart, but the world may be learning from it. That is good. Hopefully more good can come of this. | 2015-01-12T17:43:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29818 |
| Malala is another topic to me in many ways, but you are right that at a fundamental level they are the same. We do have to support the right to print or say vile things, like these cartoons, in order to create space for critical free speech and effort like Malala's. It is very hard. | 2015-01-12T17:42:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29817 |
| There is so much we as a people need to work out. It starts with a greater understanding of us, as people - the whole world coming together. Respect is so important to this process, but so is free expression. We saw the two collide violently in ways that it's hard to make sense of. What we can say is that the whole world, western and islamic, has seen a number of lines crossed that no one wants to cross again. That is good. We know the limits now. Let's work on that. |
2015-01-12T17:39:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/09/je-suis-charlie/#comment-29816 |
| Pope Francis is a great leader at a time when the developed world desperately needs it! | 2015-01-12T17:36:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29815 |
| Excellent post, thank you! I especially like this: “Every organization has a destiny: a deep purpose that expresses the organization’s reason for existence." I am very interested in putting that vision to practical use, which to me seems to be the hard part. It's something like the difference between science and technology - and that is something I am trying to push together into an eBook. Thank you for your contribution to my thinking on the topic, this is a great addition! |
2015-01-12T17:36:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29814 |
| The timeline on that is up in the air. 85% of world trade is still denominated in US Dollars,but it's slipping a little all the time - slowly. Developing nations like China and Russia are very hot to put an end to that, but they only have so much pull. A strong US economy alone in the developed world puts the brakes on that change, I think, at least for the time being. Moving away from the USD won't accelerate until after the next boom cycle starts, I think, which is to say after 2017. It would be wise for us to support that effort, but a strong USD has such great political pull with US consumers I don't see that happening. |
2015-01-12T17:31:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/12/inflation-naw/#comment-29812 |
| Today's a good day to not be here, with this weather. Thanks for following! | 2015-01-09T00:06:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/07/strategy-as-leadership/#comment-29660 |
| It may make for a long two years, but I hope that we can make some progress. Right now, all I see are efforts to hack benefits even more, which is ridiculous. | 2015-01-09T00:06:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29659 |
| Whenever I read highly Western reductionist thinking like this, I always compare it to Chinese thought. In this case, it works very well. A dynamic system is inherently more stable and not prone to collapse or stagnation, yes. Even though I am a Democrat, I see a huge role for Republicans. In the New Deal they often explained just why things wouldn't work, etc, and modified the more crazy Progressive stuff. It was a good system. But it worked because they were engaged - not like these showboaters. That's what's missing today, IMHO. |
2015-01-07T04:46:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29606 |
| Not so excellent! :-) Well, it was the most likely - but I did think they had his number this time. It was close. This should start a wholesale purge of the Tea Party from the Republicans, so stay tuned. | 2015-01-07T04:43:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29605 |
| I do not in any way want the Tea Party to run things, nope. But if they really try they may precipitate a crisis that could band together reasonable people, which I do hope happens. | 2015-01-07T04:42:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29604 |
| Excellent! | 2015-01-07T04:41:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29603 |
| Gohmert cannot win. I don't know of any Tea Party person who can. But they can really gum things up with their 11%. | 2015-01-05T19:17:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29570 |
| He has been a terribly unproductive Speaker, yes. | 2015-01-05T19:17:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/05/boehners-big-wave-goodbye/#comment-29569 |
| No, the point was that Germans wouldn't send money to Rome. As is the point of the ECB in Frankfurt. | 2015-01-03T03:10:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29498 |
| You bet we aren't. :-) We still have some fight left in us, which you'll see the moment we start giving a damn about something. Whatever. :-) | 2015-01-02T21:45:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/31/2014-ex-machina/#comment-29492 |
| Excellent! | 2015-01-02T21:44:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/31/2014-ex-machina/#comment-29491 |
| Again, the system does work. It's a question of for whom. 2008-2012 or so it wasn't working for anyone. | 2015-01-02T21:43:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/31/2014-ex-machina/#comment-29490 |
| Thank you. One of the links I used above had a poll that shows that a majority of US Catholics support Francis' teachings all the way through, so I think more people get it than we might fear. As for tossing out the political labels of the 20th Century - yes! We should have done that 15+ years ago. The fight today is not between which institutions we favor, but about the proper role of institutions in general. It's something I was thinking about as I wrote this .... either it leaked through, or you read my mind. :-) More on that later. |
2015-01-02T21:42:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29489 |
| We should have had a Jesuit Pope centuries ago. | 2015-01-02T21:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29488 |
| This is a Pope who chooses his words very carefully at every event. :-) | 2015-01-02T21:39:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2015/01/02/taking-care-of-creation/#comment-29487 |
| I think it comes down to the US as a leader, with the Americas coming on strong along with southern Asia. That makes this the new US Century. The developed world? Feh. | 2014-12-30T20:58:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/26/a-tale-of-two-worlds/#comment-29389 |
| That's the thing - who else could possibly do it? I don't see any of the Republicans doing what needs to be done. | 2014-12-30T20:56:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/29/managing-inevitability-the-clinton-story/#comment-29388 |
| I agree. | 2014-12-30T20:56:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/29/managing-inevitability-the-clinton-story/#comment-29387 |
| A good point. We will stand up to him eventually - but when? | 2014-12-30T20:56:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/26/a-tale-of-two-worlds/#comment-29386 |
| That's the whole problem. Inevitable takes time? :-) | 2014-12-30T20:53:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/29/managing-inevitability-the-clinton-story/#comment-29385 |
| U-6 Unemployment, the most comprehensive measure, fell from 13.1% to 11.4%, meaning something like 2.4M people have seen their economic condition improve - about the same as the net number of jobs created, meaning that the labor force is not growing (retirements equal young people over 16 coming in). http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Long term unemployment, 15 weeks or more fell from 5.8M to 4.2M, a net improvement of 1.6M people. That shows that the job gain is mostly absorbing the long-standing problem with long term unemployment that's been haunting us since 2008 and to some extent even longer. http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13008516 |
2014-12-25T17:53:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/24/happy-christmas-happy-new-year/#comment-29241 |
| Merry Christmas to you as well! I think this will be a good year ahead. It's time now for one. All it takes now is an attitude adjustment. |
2014-12-25T17:47:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/24/happy-christmas-happy-new-year/#comment-29240 |
| A strong economy? No problems wishing for that. It's been far too long, especially for those who work hard for a living. It really has been 14 years since they received their share of the fundamental promise of our culture, "A good days' pay for a good days' work". That's my Christmas wish this year - that we live up to our promise. |
2014-12-25T17:46:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/24/happy-christmas-happy-new-year/#comment-29239 |
| Yes, but if all they can do is lower the price, OPEC ain't what it used to be! | 2014-12-19T01:19:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/17/lowdown-oil/#comment-29017 |
| Yup, it's below $60. But I really think it won't stay there now. | 2014-12-17T22:51:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/17/lowdown-oil/#comment-28986 |
| That would be fun, yes. Al Franken? :-) | 2014-12-17T18:38:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/15/sen-warren-politics-inside-out/#comment-28978 |
| Nothing helps conservation and the search for alternatives quite like expensive oil. Around $100 it seemed that we were making good progress without killing the economy, so I'd like to see it there. $60 is ridiculous, and I really don't think will hold forever. The people of Russia deserve far better. They need a real economy that provides jobs derrived from all these resources, and they need peace. We all do. But this is indeed a very dangerous situation. |
2014-12-17T18:38:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/17/lowdown-oil/#comment-28977 |
| Ha! Good point. But the Saudis have said that $60 is where they see it, which seems to be an admission that they really do have a target. Their bottom end is $40, the cost of production. |
2014-12-17T18:36:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/17/lowdown-oil/#comment-28976 |
| I agree all around, especially that I don't know what else she stands for. She seems to be campaigning to be Secretary of Treasury - which I'd be all in favor of. | 2014-12-17T18:35:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/15/sen-warren-politics-inside-out/#comment-28974 |
| They are, at least the minions on facebook, etc. | 2014-12-15T20:41:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/15/sen-warren-politics-inside-out/#comment-28916 |
| Amen. But their officers were human, too. Apparently some did intervene to keep order, but not to stop the exchange of good will. Today's warfare does prevent this event from happening again, and the horror at a distance is if anything more horrible. We have even more death and the soldiers commanding the drones have shown even more intense PTSD from the anonymity. But we do have moments, like this, in the middle of horror to show that people are still people regardless of what machine is trying to devour them in savagery. |
2014-12-12T19:08:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28862 |
| Thanks! | 2014-12-12T19:06:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28861 |
| It's apparently very difficult. People would much rather celebrate Christmas together. | 2014-12-12T18:22:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28857 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-12-12T18:21:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28856 |
| Wonderful! Thank you for the additions to the celebration of this great Christmas event. | 2014-12-12T18:21:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/12/the-christmas-truce/#comment-28855 |
| Thanks. Those critics who ask why we have to over what they paint as "ancient history" need to realize that there are many things in government right now without any adequate checks and balances that are also pretty alarming. This report shows just how bad things can get, and needs to be known. | 2014-12-12T00:00:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28824 |
| A very good point. There was absolutely no need for this other than the sadistic impulses of the torturers. | 2014-12-11T17:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28818 |
| I have come to believe that this is correct. The agencies need to be shut down entirely. The attempt to reign in the CIA in the 70s was somewhat successful, but apparently was not permanent. It's time to go. | 2014-12-10T19:34:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28794 |
| Thanks! | 2014-12-10T19:22:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28793 |
| Thank you for reading! | 2014-12-10T19:22:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28792 |
| Point well taken, but never before have are crimes been so explicitly described. It will shame us, at least if we have any decency at all because it was shameful. Yes, the crimes were the real damage to our nation, though. | 2014-12-10T05:23:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28780 |
| Yes. A good way to put it. While not surprising, it is still infuriating. | 2014-12-10T05:14:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/10/despicable-by-any-measure/#comment-28778 |
| Come up for air, then. | 2014-12-09T04:02:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/08/glad-tidings/#comment-28746 |
| 9M still unemployed, yes. At this rate we'll still have two years before we're at what is considered "full employment " (not quite zero, but a real unemployment below 4% solidly). Again, we're on track for 2017, but not before. | 2014-12-08T23:03:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/08/glad-tidings/#comment-28738 |
| It was edgy back then, yes. In a way, it's kind of hippy. | 2014-12-08T23:02:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/05/a-charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-28737 |
| Amen, sister. I personally think it's the "hokey" that makes it great. :-) | 2014-12-05T16:36:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/05/a-charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-28655 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-12-05T16:35:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/05/a-charlie-brown-christmas/#comment-28654 |
| That's why we insist that they tell us what the weather will be tomorrow - it's much harder and takes a pro. And with all the real-time data we can collect on the economy, it doesn't take an economist to tell us where we are at today - so .... do they want to still have jobs or not? :-) | 2014-12-05T16:34:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/03/wacky-weather/#comment-28653 |
| True. And it does just get warm in the middle of Winter at random, too. :-) | 2014-12-05T16:33:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/03/wacky-weather/#comment-28652 |
| It is always optimistic to think that we can look ahead to anything happening out here on the prairie, but a return to the "zonal" jet stream flow we enjoyed in October is a really good sign. We have to take it. :-) | 2014-12-05T16:32:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/03/wacky-weather/#comment-28651 |
| I didn't know it snowed that much in Indiana! Wow. Minnesota is a bit ridiculous, and you never know from one day to the next what will happen. But this year is especially weird. Fall was just great, November was horrible. | 2014-12-05T16:31:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/03/wacky-weather/#comment-28650 |
| As a postscript, we have the Comcast data for online sales. "Cyber Monday" sales were up 17% from 2013 to $2B, and overall the 5-day period from Thanksgiving to Monday saw a 24% rise to $6.5B. http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press-Releases/2014/12/Cyber-Monday-Exceeds-2-Billion-in-Desktop-Sales-for-First-Time-Ever-to-Rank-as-Heaviest-US-Online-Spending-Day-in-History The $12.3B figure above appears to include online sales, so it appears that online shopping may have exceeded brick and mortar for the first time. Given that these are all estimates I want to hold off on that for the final figures, but it appears that what has really killed Black Friday is online shopping. |
2014-12-05T16:25:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28649 |
| That's why I'd hate to have this done through a law - there's always a need for a few things to be open for small emergencies. If we can just stop the frenzy it'd all be OK, IMHO. | 2014-12-03T04:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28583 |
| It's about the presenter, not the content, which is always a recipe for disaster, IMHO. | 2014-12-01T21:24:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/21/boom-goes-powerpoint/#comment-28528 |
| I agree, it's a dumb stand. They will lose the youth, at least. It puts more demographic pressure on them just when they need less. | 2014-12-01T21:24:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/19/net-neutrality-heats-up/#comment-28527 |
| Well, it's down close to $2.50 now. So obviously the Saudis are willing to let it keep dropping. US production will have to come to a halt here, but that may take a while. Diesel is more expensive in part because they used to do a very easy refining operation on it, but new regulations required more sulfur to be removed. Refineries are slow to install the equipment because the demand for diesel is so low. So that keeps the price up. It's really lame all around. |
2014-12-01T21:23:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28526 |
| It fuels the world, bay-bee! :-) Second only to water as the thing we need most. | 2014-12-01T21:21:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28525 |
| I agree with that. We are managing risk in the worst way possible, which is to heavily socialize it. That's not good. | 2014-12-01T21:21:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28524 |
| Thank you for reading and commenting! All this work is for you! | 2014-12-01T21:19:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/26/be-thankful-not-fearful/#comment-28523 |
| I also worry about Minneapolis. PointerGate shows how on the edge they are. I tell you, every time I see the sign that says I am crossing into that town I hold my hand up and say, "Yup, still white, I'll be OK." My kids expect it from me. | 2014-12-01T21:19:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/26/be-thankful-not-fearful/#comment-28522 |
| It seems to be the norm, yes. That comes from the low interest rate environment, where rates are abnormally low. You have to take on risk to get a decent return. When rates go up and people are more used to small returns I expect this sort of behavior will stop. Then again, oil drillers have always been big in junk bonds even from the start. |
2014-12-01T21:18:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28521 |
| That makes sense to me. I don't fault going out shopping, really, and I know many families do it together. Anything like that I have to support. But the whole thing got very silly and destructive. "Black Friday" as a concept, toned down a bit, could be OK. Busy, but not a rush sounds great! Hope you had a good time. |
2014-12-01T21:17:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28520 |
| I do not think there were any serious injuries or deaths this year. So the worst is over. Glad you remembered that from this piece from last year. :-) http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/ |
2014-12-01T21:15:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28519 |
| The statues are Peppermint Patty and Marcy, and Patty is on a park bench. They are in Rice Park. I would LOVE more statues like those, although they are plastic and a bit cheesy. But yes, more fictional figures would be great! | 2014-12-01T21:15:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/28/cast-in-bronze/#comment-28518 |
| An excellent point, as always. Yes, there are those who are trying to make us afraid. The quote at the end is from Pope John Paul II when confronting Communism in Poland: "Be not afraid". | 2014-12-01T21:14:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/26/be-thankful-not-fearful/#comment-28517 |
| The taxpayer is only on the hook if they are big enough to kill a bank. There are no signs that this is true, but we don't know the relative exposure of any one company. If JP Morgan, for example, had $100B it would probably seriously wound but not kill them. So I think we're OK. | 2014-12-01T21:13:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/24/crude-and-junky/#comment-28516 |
| I sure will. :-) But we have to wait 3 weeks. | 2014-12-01T21:12:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/12/01/black-friday-dead/#comment-28515 |
| I'm distantly related to Harry Truman, if that counts for anything. :-) | 2014-11-20T22:39:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/19/net-neutrality-heats-up/#comment-28232 |
| You're a sharp guy! The city is already looking at how to connect Shepard to the Highway 5 bridge. How good the connections will be for bikes and pedestrians in any new bridge is also being considered. I like the idea of 3-laning West Seventh the whole way as well, and with any options for transit improvements I think we can also improve the flow of Seventh in part by making it more of a local street. So you're right in the mainstream of thought here, and something like what you say is very likely all around. I hope we can make it happen! |
2014-11-20T22:38:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-28231 |
| Good points all around. I don't know why people would be against this - if written well, that is. | 2014-11-19T18:44:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/19/net-neutrality-heats-up/#comment-28202 |
| He's a paid shill, he can take it. | 2014-11-19T18:43:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/19/net-neutrality-heats-up/#comment-28201 |
| Abenomics has failed, and it may yet fail spectacularly. | 2014-11-19T18:42:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28200 |
| Russia will be lucky to have zero growth. We are indeed the only strong engine in the world right now, and our turnaround is going to benefit everyone. | 2014-11-19T18:41:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28199 |
| Yes, the government shutdown is blamed on the weak holiday shopping last year. 2014 was not a good turnaround year, so something has to happen to make 2015 start out well. | 2014-11-19T18:41:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28198 |
| That is a very good idea! Has the same effect, but keeps it local. | 2014-11-19T18:40:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28197 |
| That is what we hope! | 2014-11-19T18:39:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28196 |
| This is entirely true. But one of the big problems in this so-called "recovery" period has been the very low velocity, or turnover, of money. That really does have to change before we will get out of the problems. If savings were put into the kind of loans that Credit Unions make things might improve, too. |
2014-11-19T18:39:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/17/holiday-shopping-2014/#comment-28195 |
| I don't think the voters like the choices they have. 37% turnout means 63% saw no reason to show up - that's a really large majority. The press, however, feels compelled to fawn over the dynasties. That is some sick stuff if you ask me. |
2014-11-14T21:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/07/progressive-in-every-sense-of-the-word/#comment-28048 |
| It is a lot, about 25% up and down. I would hate to have to budget for something like a truck fleet - although right now it's pretty easy. | 2014-11-14T20:09:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/14/crude-goin-down/#comment-28046 |
| A good point, as always. But if they are trying to get US production shaken out, they may yet win. I doubt they can do that, however, and I don't know if they think they can. |
2014-11-14T20:08:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/14/crude-goin-down/#comment-28045 |
| Thanks. It should last most of this Winter, probably into January at least. | 2014-11-14T20:07:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/14/crude-goin-down/#comment-28044 |
| Quagmire. | 2014-11-13T17:22:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27999 |
| The Free Democrats in Germany are my kind of party, and I'd like to see something like that here. But we have little to no space for more than two parties, sadly. | 2014-11-13T17:21:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27998 |
| Agree all around. The Republicans face a demographic problem as their voters are very old now. It is entirely up to the Democrats to offer the alternative, IMHO. | 2014-11-13T17:21:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27997 |
| It's pretty darned good! Thanks! | 2014-11-13T17:19:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/31/disruptive-philanthropy/#comment-27996 |
| Their percentage of food imported is about 12%, which is not horrible: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/food-imports-percent-of-merchandise-imports-wb-data.html But yes, they have to sell more than just resources they pull out of the ground to get out of undeveloped status, IMHO. There is a lot of value to be added to energy, such as making plastics (and related consumer goods) as well as electricity, etc. |
2014-11-13T17:19:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27995 |
| Yes, it is a cancer. We have to see it as such. | 2014-11-13T17:17:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/12/global-policeman-again/#comment-27994 |
| Hello, you must be new here. :-) My central thesis is that the Managed Depression started in 2000 or so, and should conclude on schedule about 2017. The nature of the next upturn - whether it includes the rise of the middle class or just the rich getting richer - is still up for grabs, IMHO. http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/ http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/ |
2014-11-13T17:16:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/19/industrial-capacity-is-back/#comment-27993 |
| I am not impressed with the movements we have generated so far - they are leaderless and rather passive. They have no strong agenda that can be pushed. When we have those things we can hold our politicians to them and then see how far we have to go for real change. Right now I'm afraid it's far too mushy, and Samuel Gompers, et al, would certainly agree. | 2014-11-13T17:13:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/29/the-secret-goldman-tapes/#comment-27992 |
| We will have to have some sense of Socialism, depending on how you want to define that. I have danced around Marx in many of these pieces without actually mentioning him, but it's clear that he was right about a lot of things. | 2014-11-13T17:12:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/08/paralyzed/#comment-27991 |
| I love Capaldi, period. But I agree that Moffat should NOT be writing so much - maybe the opener was fine, but after that he needs to have a team doing the work. The show is getting far too Moffaty, and that's a detriment to Capaldi's otherwise brilliant work, IMHO. | 2014-11-13T17:11:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-27990 |
| Absolutely! But there is a lot of history. Saudi Arabia and Iran were called the "Twin Pillars" of Middle East policy by Kissinger around 1970. If we had somehow managed to have both today things would be very different. As it stands, I think we have to just back away from Arabia, which should be a lot easier given that we don't need their oil. And I really think some sense of normalcy with Iran is essential. | 2014-11-13T17:10:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27989 |
| It is unbelievable that the principle of self-determination that was applied to the breakup of the Russian and Austrian Empires was not applied to the Ottoman Empire. We are still grappling with this horrific mistake. | 2014-11-13T17:08:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27988 |
| Yes, that is true. I don't think the Republicans have any good options unless they can keep themselves focused. That seems to be the hard part. The Tea Party is already gearing up for an utterly pointless fight on Net Neutrality, for example. | 2014-11-12T23:39:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27954 |
| Yes, but the total collapse of government comes from a complete unwillingness to bargain and compromise - and we have to blame that on the Republican Party leadership. | 2014-11-12T23:38:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27953 |
| I will check you out! | 2014-11-12T18:50:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27945 |
| Excellent rec, thank you! There is a LOT to say about the development of religious thought in the English Colonies - things adapted and changed very much as different groups came to seek relief. That includes the Catholics of Maryland, which I'd love to know more about. Lancaster County, my "native Homeland", is a very special place and it's hard to describe in just a few words, especially given my feelings for it. |
2014-11-12T18:50:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27944 |
| A good point. There is a separation of government and society in our system that is often hard to understand and relate to. | 2014-11-12T18:47:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27943 |
| Liverpool shipbuilders. Not a story that's often told, but there were a lot like us. | 2014-11-12T18:47:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27942 |
| They are authoritarian by nature, and yet in some ways they live a very natural and open life. It's kind of a parallel universe in many ways. I very much love and respect my "cousins", as I've come to know them, but there are a few things that very much bother me - almost all dealing with gender relations. | 2014-11-12T18:46:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/10/william-penn-and-religious-freedom/#comment-27941 |
| I hope we can expect more than that. It is our nation we're talking about. | 2014-11-12T18:44:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/12/whither-republicans/#comment-27940 |
| Thanks! | 2014-11-07T18:50:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27794 |
| We don't have to get rid of them, but they do need to be reformed badly. And the only thing that can do that is a big loss. Democrats better take a lesson. | 2014-11-07T18:49:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/07/progressive-in-every-sense-of-the-word/#comment-27793 |
| I have a complicated opinion of Hillary Clinton that I think befits her complicated personality. She may not divide the party in large part because she is smart enough to avoid that. Yes, there is still a "Goldwater Girl" deep inside of her - she's certainly hawkish enough on foreign policy to show that. But she knows enough to let the next generation of progressive leadership have its way when necessary to build a coalition. FDR was, in many ways, dragged kicking and screaming into the New Deal. The Henry Wallace Progressive wing forced him into many key aspects, including very important things like the FDIC. FDR knew not to get in the way too much, and was willing to take credit when Progressive ideas worked. I think Clinton understands this, too. If there is a young Progressive movement she will do her best to co-opt it and use its energy. She would also be willing to be a figurehead on their key platform planks if it gave her room on things she really wanted. And she also knows that Progressives are right about a lot of things. Is this position too cynical or not cynical enough? I can't tell. But if Secretary Clinton runs (and I'm not sure she is) it would be with a plan like this. If she thinks she can't pull it off, I would think she wouldn't run. The key for Progressives is to organize and form an identifiable leadership and platform. It would be good for the party and, once co-opted, good for Sec. Clinton. How I really feel about her co-opting such a platform is something I'm still not sure about. If that's what it takes to get something past the oligarchy, it may be OK. |
2014-11-07T04:17:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/07/progressive-in-every-sense-of-the-word/#comment-27772 |
| It was a big night. But we'll see what comes next. | 2014-11-05T19:54:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27737 |
| Thanks! | 2014-11-05T16:23:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27731 |
| Feh. | 2014-11-05T16:23:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27730 |
| The poor hapless Guy, burned in effigy every year for over 400 years now. | 2014-11-05T16:23:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/05/guy-fawkes-day/#comment-27729 |
| It's all just blather, really. | 2014-11-05T04:55:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/03/shadow-banking/#comment-27717 |
| It comes down to proper evaluation of the loans and how good they are, which I don't think has been figured out adequately - and most of Wall Street agrees. The industry needs to clean itself up, and they really haven't. | 2014-11-04T18:22:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/03/shadow-banking/#comment-27701 |
| That is a lot of what happened. Once banks lost the personal touch they lost the one edge that they had. Credit Unions own that now. The rest of it is just money. At some point this goes back to my "Economy of People" musings. | 2014-11-03T20:54:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/11/03/shadow-banking/#comment-27674 |
| But in the process, better things can (and must) happen! | 2014-11-03T20:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/31/disruptive-philanthropy/#comment-27673 |
| Thanks! This piece was one that I thought was pre-sold to another outlet, but it fell through. Thought I'd use it here. :-) | 2014-10-31T15:16:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/31/disruptive-philanthropy/#comment-27599 |
| All that sounds better than a mad rush of crazed shoppers. Also, we celebrate Thanksgiving very late, after the harvest, because it's really about our Constitution. Did this piece last year. http://erikhare.com/2013/11/27/thanksgiving-deliverence/ |
2014-10-29T18:16:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/29/saving-thanksgiving/#comment-27551 |
| There are many reasons why I do not think LRT should be run on city streets other than to make a quick connection. One is the terrible cost, run up by requiring utilities to be moved. The other is the space it takes up, which is tremendous. Lastly, it was designed for high speed (hence the weight and cost) and running it at 35 MPH is a terrible waste. City streets are generally much better served by streetcars, if your goal is local service. Also, keep in mind that we have service to the airport right now that takes just 30 minutes. That's the mark we have to hit. A line on city streets is not going to be a net improvement if the goal is to get people to and from the airport. |
2014-10-29T15:47:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27543 |
| Something good will happen, one way or the other. But this is still years away, sadly. | 2014-10-29T15:44:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27542 |
| "Europe" really isn't one thing, nor could it ever be. Is the United States really one thing? Sometimes yes, mostly no. Federalism is always a good answer, IMHO. | 2014-10-29T15:43:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/27/what-is-europe/#comment-27541 |
| Perhaps we can all support it and help make it happen? | 2014-10-29T15:42:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/29/saving-thanksgiving/#comment-27540 |
| That's terrible news, and I hope that it at least wanes this year. I have no idea who goes out shopping at 8PM on Thanksgiving, but there has to be something better for them to do. | 2014-10-29T15:41:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/29/saving-thanksgiving/#comment-27539 |
| Ha! | 2014-10-27T15:37:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27477 |
| We have no idea what the cost might be - there is no design to price out and we aren't even close. With any Mississippi bridge I would ask you to not hold your breath waiting just yet - it will be a big tab. I do hope it's less than $1B, yes. | 2014-10-27T15:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27476 |
| A good point. I think history shows that when the world gets smaller it eventually tends to break into smaller pieces at the same time - kind of a counter balance. It all comes in waves, and we're looking at the natural reaction to globalism. The wave of a grand "United States of Europe" is probably just spent. | 2014-10-27T15:36:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/27/what-is-europe/#comment-27475 |
| I have ALWAYS thought that the Ford Spur all the way to that redevelopment would be a great idea. Having said that, the Mississippi crossing becomes not only longer but more difficult - with a need to avoid Minnehaha Falls and the Veteran's Home. So it's one thing on the list to think about. It might be a brilliant idea, it might be a terrible idea. |
2014-10-24T21:39:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27379 |
| Thank you, Kent. Eloquent as always. This will be a long process. There is no need to rush to an answer. |
2014-10-24T21:37:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27378 |
| Very good way to look at it. Reminds me of when Majority Leader Reid talked about how he missed tending his Pomegranate trees. | 2014-10-24T19:34:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/08/paralyzed/#comment-27371 |
| Yes, what problem are we trying to solve? The short answer is congestion and barriers to continued growth, but that needs a lot more refinement. We also feel a need to improve the connection to downtown St Paul generally. Congestion? Well, to my mind that points to the Xcel Center more than just about anything else on the street, which is why I included the drawing I did. We very much need to define what problem we are solving first. A good point. |
2014-10-24T19:33:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27370 |
| We are thinking along the same lines. The tracks end just before Sibley Plaza, however, and also pass through a neighborhood just south of Randolph in a way that is rather horrible. Other than that ... well, those are two rather big problems. :-) I would love to see stations at Randolph and around Montreal with connections to the West Seventh Streetcar. :-) |
2014-10-24T19:30:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27369 |
| Maybe, is all I'll say now. I favor the existing tracks at least as far as we can run it on them, but I have to keep an open mind. | 2014-10-24T19:28:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/24/riverview-corridor/#comment-27368 |
| Things are getting more than a little Medieval out there, aren't they? | 2014-10-23T18:51:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27327 |
| It's not clear what they want to be, as a nation, today. Sometimes they look towards the West, sometimes they retreat (and punish Ukraine for looking West). With all their resources, they could be a lot. But it's in the hands of a few oligarchs who have their own designs - and I think it's very clear that Putin serves them, not the other way around. |
2014-10-23T18:50:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27326 |
| They should be rolling out the fix immediately. It's way, way too slow. I understand the chip cards are coming out, but there is no excuse for this. | 2014-10-22T20:19:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/20/credit-card-system-fail/#comment-27285 |
| I agree completely. | 2014-10-22T20:18:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27284 |
| I agree completely! As I said before, we need to get out of the business of promoting war, too. | 2014-10-22T20:18:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27283 |
| I agree completely. Anything to bridge the gaps, make some deals, and get things done! | 2014-10-22T20:18:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/15/senate-shakedown/#comment-27282 |
| Yes, I had to use it. You're right, they are destroying their own nation. There won't be anything left to "win" in a short while. Their use of clusterbombs and a lot of artillery is disgusting. I want to take the Ukrainian government's side in this, but I don't see them serving their people - they appear to be just another set of oligarchs / mafia ready to torment the good people of Ukraine. | 2014-10-22T20:17:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27281 |
| That would also be wise, but I think we've made a lot of promises to people in the region. I'd hate to see Iraq suffer more, for example, and they will be ground zero for any war between Sunni and Shia (as they are now) because they are a divided, made-up nation. | 2014-10-22T20:15:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27280 |
| I think Jim nailed it - the cost of fraud was less than the cost of fixing it until this year. They never thought it would accelerate or become a PR nightmare, which it is both now. | 2014-10-22T20:14:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/20/credit-card-system-fail/#comment-27279 |
| That would be wise, yes. | 2014-10-22T20:14:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/22/putin-losing-the-real-war/#comment-27278 |
| A great addition, thanks! | 2014-10-21T22:01:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/about/useful-quotations/#comment-27249 |
| Yes, a calculation like that seems to have been done. This was a largely fixable problem but nothing has been done about it despite Europe having a way of at least tamping down the level of fraud, the chip cards, for years. | 2014-10-20T17:13:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/20/credit-card-system-fail/#comment-27207 |
| We all could use a little something. Theft isn't the way to go. | 2014-10-20T17:13:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/20/credit-card-system-fail/#comment-27206 |
| I would think that we could convince them if we were reasonable about everything else. Also, a nuclear Pakistan and India weighs in on this. |
2014-10-18T21:30:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/17/shia-vs-sunni/#comment-27133 |
| Things are up a bit on good news. Perhaps good news is finally just good news, and rising interest rates are priced into the market? Naw, not yet. But soon, and it will be nice to have good news be just good news. | 2014-10-17T17:08:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/15/senate-shakedown/#comment-27085 |
| May we all live in interesting times. Yeesh. | 2014-10-17T17:07:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/15/senate-shakedown/#comment-27084 |
| I didn't see that. They are getting rather dark. Glad it was cut! | 2014-10-15T20:45:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-27018 |
| It is going about as it should. October will be a down month, hard to say on November, December probably dead. January it all should start up again, I think. This is just a temporary correction that reverts us back to an overall no gain (inflation adjusted) since 2000. From there, it will build again. |
2014-10-15T17:26:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/10/up-is-down-until-its-just-up/#comment-27009 |
| Care to elaborate on that? I don't see this in consumer sentiment, but I do feel like people are at least more satisfied with what they have. | 2014-10-15T16:25:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/06/yellens-dashboard-update/#comment-27008 |
| I love it, it's my one true fandom. :-) It is a genuine institution now, which is very fun. | 2014-10-15T16:24:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-27007 |
| That does seem to be the real problem, yes. | 2014-10-15T16:24:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/08/paralyzed/#comment-27006 |
| thanks! | 2014-10-15T16:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/06/yellens-dashboard-update/#comment-27005 |
| thanks! | 2014-10-15T16:23:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/03/pop/#comment-27004 |
| That is what we all have to hope for. I see that happening in about 2 years at this rate, so we're pretty much on track for 2017. | 2014-10-15T16:23:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/10/up-is-down-until-its-just-up/#comment-27003 |
| That doesn't happen, no. :-) | 2014-10-15T16:22:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-27002 |
| The Democrats can filibuster as well as the Republicans, so I don't see anything changing no matter what. As long as no party has 60% and they are fixed on hyper-partisanship they can't do anything at all. The reason I am hopeful for independents is to get over the partisan problem. But that will take time no matter what. Still, it seems like the only possible way out, IMHO. |
2014-10-15T16:22:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/15/senate-shakedown/#comment-27001 |
| Yes, absolutely, there is much more to him than that. One scene in "Deep Breath" where he has two glasses of scotch poured is chilling and very, very new for the Doctor. This one has a maturity and simmering vengefulness. | 2014-10-13T15:07:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/13/the-time-of-the-doctor/#comment-26927 |
| It seems too complicated to people obsessed with power for its own sake. | 2014-10-10T18:03:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/08/paralyzed/#comment-26830 |
| General trends, is all. General trends. :-) | 2014-10-10T18:01:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/10/up-is-down-until-its-just-up/#comment-26829 |
| Are you accusing me of turning into a pundit? :-) Yes, I wanted to leave this in terms of long term trends largely because it's impossible to time the market. For me, that is. :-) But there are forces that are changing, and that means the market has to change. It almost certainly has to go down before it goes up, but there are reasons to see both happening. I completely agree that higher rates are not a big problem for the average person. Yes, loans will cost more - but the higher rate of return will mean that banks with capital will feel a lot better about making loans, which is the real problem for a lot of people (even Ben Bernanke!). So I really don't see any of this as bad news, just ... news, mainly. The stock market is not the economy. It's gotten a little ahead and could use a pull-back - and could stand to be a bit more selective about what rises and what doesn't. But that doesn't mean the sky is falling. |
2014-10-05T20:24:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/03/pop/#comment-26703 |
| Nope. One day does not a trend make. Yes, the market is up a little over the week, but the Fed has not actually weighed in yet. This little bit caused a lot of downside when it was announced - wait until it is implemented. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102050278#. |
2014-10-03T19:35:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/03/pop/#comment-26659 |
| Everything is in flux right now - I haven't been sure what to write about. Modi definitely was well received, and I'm thinking about what to say about him. The thing is that it's hard to get excited about a nation that has proven almost impossible to govern. As for the rest of the world, I do think that large hunks of nations are not screwing around anymore. That means the Arab states mostly, as ISIL seems to have really spooked them - I doubt they will play games with militant extremists like they have in the past. I'm thinking about writing on this for Friday. As for Europe, Russia has them scared poopless right now. They have their own mess to worry about, too. It's not good for them. |
2014-10-01T21:32:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/29/the-secret-goldman-tapes/#comment-26607 |
| I can't comment on why the Santander transaction in particular is being focused on. It does not appear to be the worst thing I've seen on the surface. It does appear that Goldman, in general, has cleaned up its act since 2008 as noted before. However, the story of the Fed being too close to the banks remains. It's ugly. And I really think that if they can't think "out of the box" they will be incredibly far behind and remain there. |
2014-10-01T21:29:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/29/the-secret-goldman-tapes/#comment-26606 |
| True, the CIA is all over the place. What we see, however, are "blowback" incidents like al Qaeda, Iran, etc. Do they do as much good for us as they do harm? I think the short answer is that no, when something gets big it's totally out of their purvey. So the stuff we hear about is all bad by definition. I can't think of anything that we've intervened in that went well over the long haul. Did the CIA create ISIL? No, we can't say that. Did they look the other way when Saudi Arabia created ISIL? To some extent, yes. But there's also evidence that Syria left ISIL unengaged for a while as a counter to the democratic forces, knowing people would prefer al Assad to ISIL. I doubt we had a big role in ISIL's creation, but we could have done a lot more to stop them - and a lot of other harm. So how culpable are we? Not as much as the conspiracy suggests, no. That's going too far, IMHO. |
2014-10-01T21:24:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/24/hindsight-conspiracies/#comment-26605 |
| A small number are, such as the Fabulous Fab. But this incident is not as much about Goldman as it is how the Fed regulates them. I think a better question is, "Why aren't people getting fired?" | 2014-10-01T21:21:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/29/the-secret-goldman-tapes/#comment-26604 |
| That is apparently true: http://about.usps.com/news/events-calendar/2014-federal-holidays.htm I think there are also some Columbus Day sales, and there's a good chance some county workers, etc get off for it. |
2014-10-01T21:20:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/10/01/thanksgiving-and-dia-de-la-raza/#comment-26603 |
| First of all, I agree totally that feminism is a feature of the developed world - and it has a lot further to go throughout the developing world. Where I'll argue with you is on the "War on Women", though it is a damned shame that it's come down to that kind of political pandering. But it works, and it does so for a very good reason - women are made very uncomfortable by a lot of the Republican agenda and especially the rhetoric that in 2012 used the word "rape" far too often. Here's something for you as a Republican that I hope you consider - there is a very natural base for you among women. Entrepreneurs. Note that according to this Harvard Business Review article women are more likely than men to be entrepreneurs. That's probably because the structure of corporate America is not suited to them for very reasons, including some sense of open hostility. They are your natural female base - and I would love to see you work to support them vigorously. It would only make sense. | 2014-09-26T21:35:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/26/heforshe/#comment-26485 |
| Yes, I think it does. What's left to change is more than laws, it's people's attitudes. | 2014-09-26T19:17:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/26/heforshe/#comment-26481 |
| Thanks! | 2014-09-26T19:16:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/26/heforshe/#comment-26480 |
| 193 of 'em, apparently. :-) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations | 2014-09-24T19:35:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/22/what-is-a-nation/#comment-26361 |
| I think you can usually tell that someone is crazy, but sometimes more sane people pick up a story and make it sound far more reasonable. That's about the time that a twisted out of context tidbit is given something like a new context that sounds far more reasonable and it takes off from there. I don't think any of these particular conspiracies will make it to the mainstream, but I worry about the Ukraine one in particular. Big hunks of it have been disproven many times, but it still keeps resurfacing. |
2014-09-24T19:34:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/24/hindsight-conspiracies/#comment-26360 |
| If you think that the US is capable of controlling everything in the world at all times you are utterly crazy. | 2014-09-24T19:32:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/24/hindsight-conspiracies/#comment-26359 |
| :-) | 2014-09-22T18:41:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/17/writing-a-formal-e-mail/#comment-26202 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-09-22T18:41:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/17/writing-a-formal-e-mail/#comment-26201 |
| Good point. You can get away with just about anything inside of the borders of this mythical thing called a "nation". | 2014-09-22T18:41:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/22/what-is-a-nation/#comment-26200 |
| A good plan! | 2014-09-22T18:40:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/22/what-is-a-nation/#comment-26199 |
| And we can do that if we reduce the overhead per employee, among many other things limiting employment. | 2014-09-22T18:40:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/19/industrial-capacity-is-back/#comment-26198 |
| It is shameful that only 10% of our workers are in manufacturing. We need to make more of what we consume here in the US. Those jobs in China should be ours. | 2014-09-22T18:32:08+00:00 | djsamuelson23 | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/19/industrial-capacity-is-back/#comment-26197 |
| We need the states to have more power. There is way too much concentrated in Washington. Now that they have utterly failed the states have to step up and do what Washington can't. | 2014-09-22T18:30:48+00:00 | djsamuelson23 | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/22/what-is-a-nation/#comment-26196 |
| About a third of all workers. It's been going steadily down since, leveling off in 2006-2008 at just over 10%. | 2014-09-22T00:16:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/19/industrial-capacity-is-back/#comment-26157 |
| Sounds great! And that experience seems to have been met by a lot of people. | 2014-09-17T19:30:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/15/no-longer-driven-by-oil/#comment-26038 |
| Thanks! | 2014-09-17T19:29:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/17/writing-a-formal-e-mail/#comment-26037 |
| Actually, it follows my prescription rather well. The "Why" and "Who" are stated up front. Then comes the passion. Lastly, it has the action - we call upon America. (I think it could be separated into paragraphs a bit better. :-) ) |
2014-09-17T19:29:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/17/writing-a-formal-e-mail/#comment-26036 |
| Some people do think that way. We can't allow that to dominate, period. | 2014-09-16T16:44:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/12/global-policeman-again/#comment-25978 |
| I think we have a good coalition, and I am all in favor of doing our part to prevent genocide against any small group of people anywhere. This event seems to show both why we need a strong military and the limits of it at the same time. It's a good model, IMHO. And we certainly can do a lot with a lot less money - probably about half what we spend now. |
2014-09-16T16:44:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/12/global-policeman-again/#comment-25977 |
| Having our own sources of oil make it much easier for us to only do the right things. I hope we can make that transition. | 2014-09-16T16:42:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/15/no-longer-driven-by-oil/#comment-25976 |
| Yes, it's about where it was in 1980. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/ | 2014-09-16T16:00:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/15/no-longer-driven-by-oil/#comment-25971 |
| There is no doubt that sending everyone a check would help things far more than what is happening now. But that would require cooperation from governments. | 2014-09-09T21:36:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/08/bizarro-world-finance/#comment-25772 |
| Yes. The pat answer is "lifelong learning", but there has to be more to it than that. | 2014-09-05T20:00:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/03/skills-gap/#comment-25673 |
| That seems to be the consensus that is developing. Key areas of rapidly evolving technology will always have a skills gap, and the more we are a high tech economy the bigger that problem is. How do people learn new skills? And how are they certified as having them? | 2014-09-05T19:59:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/03/skills-gap/#comment-25672 |
| I agree. But I put a lot of fault on the flexible work force where people change jobs so often. It doesn't make for stable development of skills in the labor force. I'm not against a flexible labor force, especially if we can get to a place where there is upward pressure on wages (which I hope to see when the Baby Boomers retire). But the old model broke and nothing has replaced it. We have a lot of thinking to do. And I agree that the skills gap is real, at least in part. | 2014-09-05T19:58:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/03/skills-gap/#comment-25671 |
| Thanks! | 2014-09-05T19:56:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/03/skills-gap/#comment-25670 |
| I am working on a model that describes the cost/benefit analysis. But when it's done as a private company, it's hard to do. Suffice it to say that if all or most of it is on someone else's dime (the government of Japan, not the US?) I'm all for it. | 2014-09-05T19:54:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/05/maglev-trains-in-our-future/#comment-25669 |
| Yes! Two things changed. 1) The technology has been proven, and 2) Someone appears ready to pony up the big bucks to make it happen. And the price of oil has hit a stable, higher price. Three things. The point is that retail as we know it is changing, and people are closer to manufacturing than ever before. Maybe you don't want a custom tailored shirt direct in the mail, but it is possible today in something like real time for not a ton of money. The same goes for much bigger things. I think the time is right for the next phase of revolution in how we consume, and the missing link to me seems to be retail - and the inventory they have to carry. Reduce that to near zero and you have both the logical conclusion of WalMart's amazing logistics system and its ultimate death. It's one Hell of a ride, better even than a really fast train. |
2014-09-05T19:53:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/09/05/maglev-trains-in-our-future/#comment-25668 |
| The accumulated debt since 1980 is just a bit less than the accumulated military spending, for example. | 2014-08-26T17:12:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/18/the-opportunity-cost/#comment-25298 |
| Let's hope they are least have a good end to their suffering. | 2014-08-26T17:11:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/18/the-opportunity-cost/#comment-25297 |
| Please tell us more about that. I'd like to know more about what you think should be in a basic curriculum. | 2014-08-26T17:10:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/20/six-things-schools-should-teach/#comment-25296 |
| Yes, that is the problem. There are simply other things to spend money on, and it's tight right now. | 2014-08-26T17:10:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/18/the-opportunity-cost/#comment-25295 |
| How did this fall to the Mayors alone to approve? I don't understand this one bit. | 2014-08-26T17:09:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/22/when-great-force-becomes-easy/#comment-25294 |
| I can't, either. It was very strange at best. | 2014-08-26T17:08:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/22/when-great-force-becomes-easy/#comment-25293 |
| The Fed is very much on the side of labor here. I know that sounds strange, but it is very true. Everything they are doing is for more employment right now. | 2014-08-26T17:08:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/25/labor-in-a-jackson-hole/#comment-25292 |
| Yes, that is the point. And we do have that horrific video of them executing a man when there must, simplly must be, other ways of dealing with it. | 2014-08-26T17:07:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/22/when-great-force-becomes-easy/#comment-25291 |
| Yes, that is basically it in many cases, but there are specific skills that people should at least be familiar with to succeed in life. There are different levels, but the introductory courses would help kids to know what it means to be an entrepreneur, for example, and decide if they want to do that in life. | 2014-08-26T17:04:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/20/six-things-schools-should-teach/#comment-25290 |
| It isn't what they were designed to do, but they are now claiming it is part of their "dual mandate" to keep the economy moving. I honestly don't know that they can do more. One thing I forgot to mention again is that the current stimulus is still running very hot, about 2% less than it should be by the best calculations. |
2014-08-26T17:03:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/25/labor-in-a-jackson-hole/#comment-25289 |
| I will look and get back to you, good idea. | 2014-08-15T20:57:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/08/stocks-lower-because-they-just-are-dammit/#comment-24913 |
| That is what we all hope, yes. | 2014-08-15T20:56:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/08/stocks-lower-because-they-just-are-dammit/#comment-24912 |
| I'm never wiling to go that far, you know. | 2014-08-15T20:56:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/08/stocks-lower-because-they-just-are-dammit/#comment-24911 |
| Amen! It's best to not think about it too much, IMHO. | 2014-08-15T20:55:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/08/stocks-lower-because-they-just-are-dammit/#comment-24910 |
| Thanks. It is terrible to see, but I have to tell you I've been there myself. | 2014-08-15T20:55:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/11/surviving-thriving/#comment-24909 |
| Thanks! | 2014-08-15T20:54:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/13/a-jolt-of-confidence/#comment-24908 |
| There is a lot of "churn" going on, where people are leaving jobs for better ones. It is something that has to happen as the economy changes and people see opportunity. It really points to an overall improvement even more than the number of actual jobs gained each month, which has gone up to around 220k. | 2014-08-15T20:52:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/13/a-jolt-of-confidence/#comment-24907 |
| Yes, in 1957! | 2014-08-15T20:51:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/13/a-jolt-of-confidence/#comment-24906 |
| So you think I was slow to call it, then? :-) | 2014-08-15T20:50:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/15/one-last-bubble/#comment-24905 |
| I think you are right on the anecdote, and yes, that has been happening around me as well. It is a sure sign of a bubble, isn't it? | 2014-08-15T20:50:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/15/one-last-bubble/#comment-24904 |
| The market got out of hand. A year ago the rise seemed reasonable, but it's way ahead of itself. And then this bubble of junk was inflated. Hey, I'll call it as I see it! :-) | 2014-08-15T20:49:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/15/one-last-bubble/#comment-24903 |
| The TWX is holding very even with the USD. They run very close to each other, meaning that it would make a good substitute for the USD in the short term. | 2014-08-07T14:42:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/30/world-currency/#comment-24761 |
| See above. :-) GDP is output, and GO is the total activity needed to make that output. | 2014-08-07T14:39:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/01/new-measures-for-new-times/#comment-24760 |
| GDP is a measure of finished goods, which is to say the net output of the economy. GO is a measure of the total activity it takes to make those goods. It is a big deal, and the gap between them is larger than I was led to believe when this was a theoretical discussion. I've always known that GDP wasn't a good measure to compare for jobs, which is why I haven't really tried to link the two - other than repeating a correlation between GDP growth and job growth that someone else came up with (and appears to not work well lately - now I know why!). Yes, there is a lot more to say here. The productivity figure I threw in at the end is worth a lot more thought. It shows that it dipped substantially before and during the big job loss, which is to say there was a reason companies were shedding workers. There's a lot of meat in that which is hard to digest all at once. I'm thinking about it. |
2014-08-07T14:37:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/01/new-measures-for-new-times/#comment-24759 |
| I can't think of anything, either. But to Europe this is a bigger deal, especially Germany. There is a market for German stuff over there that they have been developing. I say let the EU lead on this as they are the ones that have to deal with all the consequences of both action and inaction. | 2014-08-07T14:30:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/04/a-new-cold-war/#comment-24758 |
| What do they really make? Most of their exports are raw materials, the mark of a real third-word oligarchy (oops, sorry Canada!). | 2014-08-07T14:29:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/04/a-new-cold-war/#comment-24757 |
| That is a good way of looking at it, IMHO. It's a show as much as it is just a game. | 2014-08-07T14:28:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/06/the-small-stories-inside/#comment-24756 |
| While I have a clear bias towards Ukraine, I can't go quite that far. I hope that the Ukrainian army are the heroes in this, and I do hope that the people of Ukraine find a way to live together in peace and a real sense of justice. I hope that the gangsters that torment them are somehow put down and subjected to the rule of law. Is that what is happening now? We won't know for some time. Petro Poroshenko seems like a good guy, but it's so hard to tell just how dirty someone is from this far away. | 2014-08-07T14:27:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/06/the-small-stories-inside/#comment-24755 |
| Thank you. Gaza is about revenge, at least in terms of the fighters who are doing the actual killing. Revenge and a sense of necessity for survival. But to the architects of the war it is more of a cold game. The leaders are not serving the people, but instead their own desires and ambitions. That is true all around in this one. | 2014-08-07T14:25:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/06/the-small-stories-inside/#comment-24754 |
| I think I'll take that up. Thanks! | 2014-08-04T19:59:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/08/04/a-new-cold-war/#comment-24645 |
| It would probably make imports more expensive, yes, but that would help our manufacturing. | 2014-07-30T14:23:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/30/world-currency/#comment-24481 |
| It's a miss, and a pretty big one. I was calling higher than +225k, and we didn't get that. It is in the range I gave, yes, and that is a good thing. But it's still a miss. | 2014-07-30T14:23:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/28/making-predictions/#comment-24480 |
| I do, too. :-) | 2014-07-23T01:19:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24332 |
| Or the US, at least in the past. I don't think we're arming a small group like the Contras right now, but I could be wrong. But yes, the world is full of these proxy wars and they always go about the same way. The small group of wackos (I deliberately avoided the term "redneck" this time) gains inflated power when someone gives them guns - or more advanced weapons. And there is always, I do mean always, some blowback or horrific incident that shows how dangerous this is. Iran hasn't gotten their blowback yet, but I suspect that they will. Arming a small group of wackos for the purpose of creating mayhem is a terrible way to conduct policy, but it's very common. And the mayhem eventually affects everyone. | 2014-07-23T01:18:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/23/wackos-with-guns/#comment-24331 |
| An excellent question that I don't have a good answer to. What I can say is that the new government of Poroshenko appears to be proceeding cautiously as they move against the rebels. I don't know if it's because he doesn't want to cause a lot of destruction (inflating a civil war) or because he fears Russia. But they have had limited engagements, even though so far it has consistently gone their way. I did anticipate at least a statement on their part as to why they didn't just move in and secure the site, but so far there has been nothing that I have seen. If anyone has more to add, please do. |
2014-07-23T01:15:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/23/wackos-with-guns/#comment-24330 |
| Some pigs are men. | 2014-07-23T00:14:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24326 |
| We do need a show like that again. Men need good examples, IMHO. | 2014-07-22T16:21:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24321 |
| Thanks! | 2014-07-22T16:21:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24320 |
| Thanks! | 2014-07-22T16:20:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/21/james-garner/#comment-24319 |
| It will cost them bigtime, no doubt. | 2014-07-19T21:55:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24270 |
| I don't see the US or Obama as having any significant role in this, period. We apparently have little to no influence over Ukraine, given how the people responsible for the credit card theft from Target and others have been traced to Odessa and have suffered no consequences at all. If we were, as many conspiracy theorists report, pushing the government change for our own interests it would seem that this would be one of the first things our puppet would take care of. Nothing has been done. Given that the US has essentially no role in this, it's all on the EU. And the EU is not exactly hostile to Russia - more like codependent. It will give in to Putin until it can't give anymore. My point is that at that point Putin's hand will be laid bare, and the tattered relations with the EU will cost the oligarchs that really run Russia a LOT of money (The MICEX is down considerably this month and this year). So how will Putin lose? Don't look to the military, that's only a sideshow. The EU plays for money, and money alone. And they will beat the crap out of Russia. |
2014-07-19T21:54:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24269 |
| A very good point. | 2014-07-18T21:56:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/14/its-in-the-um-timing/#comment-24248 |
| I think that is likely - which is why I referred to the 30 Years' War, which collapsed into a cynical chaos before it did burn out. That phase may be coming shortly, or we may be in it. This may be burning out because there is nothing to gain while the people and the land are exhausted. | 2014-07-18T21:54:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24247 |
| The at-Takwir, from the Q'uran. The overthrowing. All this shall pass. | 2014-07-18T21:51:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24246 |
| I think that Russia has to be the net loser in all of this. Putin appears to be losing more and more through his hard stand against Ukraine's likely accession to the EU. A more reasonable stand might be to attempt to dominate the EU itself, which would be interesting. | 2014-07-18T21:43:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24245 |
| That is a very good point - that this is all part of a century-long conflict between Russia and Germany that is in a particularly cool but suspicious phase right now. That did come up in part through the Russian propaganda on Ukraine as they alleged that those who overthrew Yanukovych were all Nazis (and there are a lot of actual Nazis in Ukraine today, sadly). But yes, primarily this is an attempt to hold USSR together, which is to say hold the old Tsarist Empire together. We had to expect Putin to resist, so resorting to a proxy war is actually a hopeful sign that he's not going to do anything stupid, given the stakes. |
2014-07-18T21:39:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24244 |
| Simply horrible. We have certainly created a lot of mayhem around the world, so I'm not letting the US off the hook by any means (I opened the way I did because, for some reason, people seem to think that going after Putin's aggression is to take an exclusively pro-US position). I can imagine a process with Iran where we finally apologize for this, all we did with the Shah, and for arming Iraq. It's long past time to admit our failures. A truly strong nation can do that - it's a weak one that cannot. | 2014-07-18T21:36:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/18/too-clever-by-a-lot/#comment-24243 |
| An entire empire devoted to putting your feet up. No wonder they were so popular. No wonder they ultimately failed. | 2014-07-18T01:51:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24222 |
| Exactly, there are no good solutions. So what might work best? The fact that this old idea is back on the table is a sign of desperation - but it's also a sign that people are willing to consider anything to bring peace. It's both good and bad. | 2014-07-17T14:53:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24204 |
| I don't want to accuse anyone of anything. I'm not a fan of Israel, but I can't imagine sitting by while Jerusalem is shelled by mortars. The way the land has been partitioned is horrible, but it's hard to undo that at this point - so where do we go from here? How is peace created? That's all I really care about. | 2014-07-17T14:52:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24203 |
| Fixed, sorry about that. | 2014-07-17T14:48:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/16/one-state-solution/#comment-24202 |
| It seems to be that way lately. Even dramas have a lot of comic relief built in them, which isn't that different from Shakespeare, to be honest, but it's definitely a trend. | 2014-07-14T16:18:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/14/its-in-the-um-timing/#comment-24058 |
| Yes, exactly. A lot of what makes this a "Managed" Depression is that the Fed and Treasury Department have been careful to not make the mistakes made in the last one. But they are, apparently, making different mistakes in the process. That the poor see inflation first is both surprising and not to me. Most of the inflation we've see has been asset inflation, which is to say stocks. The rich have gotten richer. I honestly expected luxury items to be the first to inflate for that reason. Apparently, it doesn't work that way. That's a bit of a problem for me, and I want to figure it out before I say more. |
2014-07-14T16:14:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/11/too-many-dollars-too-few-dollars/#comment-24057 |
| This both does and does not change my support for Fed policies. They are doing everything they can, but no one thinks they are the right body to be doing this. It would make much, much more sense for the Federal Government to do this (and perhaps have the Fed simply buy the T-Bills needed to finance it to keep rates low). But this is a serious problem that needs to be thought through, yes. We cannot have net negative rates without encouraging more debt, which is a bad thing overall. There is much more to say about this - next time, I'll hit it all. It's hard to organize. |
2014-07-14T16:11:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/11/too-many-dollars-too-few-dollars/#comment-24056 |
| There is a lot more to say about this, but I think it boils down to something easily understood. Poor people buy only necessities, the things everyone does. These are limited commodities that are produced at the lowest possible cost, meaning that any price shock has to be passed on - there is no room for the producer to absorb it. And as physical, real items like food and energy (oil) they necessarily inflate quickly because they are more of a "gold standard" than the money itself. I hope that helps. I am looking for the whole basket to find out what goes into it. |
2014-07-14T16:09:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/11/too-many-dollars-too-few-dollars/#comment-24055 |
| Thanks! | 2014-07-09T19:35:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/04/to-fly-the-flag/#comment-23973 |
| Thanks! | 2014-07-09T19:35:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/04/to-fly-the-flag/#comment-23972 |
| That seems to be what this is about, yes. | 2014-07-09T19:34:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23971 |
| Understandable, for sure. | 2014-07-09T18:22:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/07/suspending-disbelief/#comment-23968 |
| I believe they now have more Lobby than Hobby in 'em. | 2014-07-09T18:22:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/07/suspending-disbelief/#comment-23967 |
| I will work on that and get back to you. No promises as to when. :-) | 2014-07-09T18:21:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23966 |
| An excellent point. Yellen didn't specify anything like that, although we know that the Fed in general is looking for more inflation than we have. So for her purposes, I think it's good as devised - but for our purposes it should be the above chart divided by CPI. Let me work on that. | 2014-07-09T18:21:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23965 |
| No, it' isn't half full yet. But these are the worst of the lingering signs of badness, so if anything this is a pessimist's gauge. And even this is improving (if slowly). | 2014-07-09T18:19:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23964 |
| Well, of these two things you're tired of, I can say two different things. On the Managed Depression, these charts show once again what I've been saying all along - that the downturn started in 2001, had a small to nil recovery 2004-2007, and then turned down again before a stronger recovery 2012-today. It's very obvious that this is one long event, and by the length alone you have to call it a "Depression". Don't like the handle "Managed"? Coin your own! On the Year Everything Changes, if you don't believe me then just wait and see. If you'd like to place a bet, I'm always game. But it's also very clear based on the progress that we've made that we need another 8-10 quarters at this rate to say things have turned around, and I'm willing to say that we'll have a bit of a pause before we get there. That puts us squarely into 2017. We are still very much on track to hit it spot on, one year after my prediction. Don't like it? Don't read Barataria. |
2014-07-09T18:19:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23963 |
| Judging by the looks of him, that's coming up pretty soon! :-) | 2014-07-09T18:14:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/09/yellens-dashboard/#comment-23962 |
| I am starting to think that this is an example of the old adage "Good cases make bad law." The idea that corporations have some of the same rights as people is very old. They have long been able to sue to enforce contracts, et cetera. What this court created in Citizen's United was the idea that Constitutional rights extend to corporations, which I considered dangerous. This ruling extends that, as shown in Alito's comments in the majority opinion. Corporations now have a right to religious expression that has not been allowed before. I will agree that this ruling could have come down the same way without that. I have sympathy for Hobby Lobby and more specifically Conestoga Cabinets, which is a Mennonite company (I consider my sense of Christianity to be more closely aligned with my Mennonite ancestry and its traditions in my family than any other faith). Again, I think the most important issue here is the strange system where companies provide health care - and are now compelled to provide it. But the ruling was much more broad and, to my mind, did not balance equal protection concerns in any substantial way. Does equal protection apply to corporations as it does to government and its laws? Certainly, something like it has been set as precedent in any number of employment or services cases - corporations are public entities and not entirely private. I would have like to have had much more elaboration of that consideration, much as the competing rights and obligations were explicitly spelled out in Roe v Wade. Instead, we have a ruling that is very broad and quite absolute. Closely held corporations have a Constitutional right to religious liberty. I think this is very dangerous and opens the door to a wide variety of applications. If this applies only to health care, the rational for that should have been explained. Since that is missing, we have to assume that, like all fundamental rights, this must be applied broadly. I ask you - what if a company wants to enforce Sharia Law in its operation? I gave a very specific example, but let's take that broadly. The implications are vast and very frightening. In short, the role of a corporation as a public entity has been changed, and apparently dramatically. I don't think they had to go there to make this ruling, but they did. It's huge, not well supported by precedent, and I think very, very dangerous. | 2014-07-03T19:24:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23851 |
| Back in the 1970s and 1980s, it was common for conservatives to decry an "activist court" that "legislated from the bench". This was essentially coded language for their displeasure over the central argument in Roe v Wade - that there is a right to privacy that needs to be balanced in the case of abortion with the state's interest in protecting life. The right to privacy has deep roots in American culture and is derived from the 4th Amendment. It has a long legal tradition dating back to 1922. Polls have shown that most Americans believe there is, indeed, a "right to privacy". This activist court has created the concept of "corporate personhood" more or less from whole cloth that they wove themselves. There is some precedent for it in a limited legal sense, but it was never implied by any previous decisions that constitutional rights applied. There is no mention of corporations or their rights in the Constitution at all. And, indeed, a vast majority of all Americans, of all parties, agree that corporations are not people. This decision is the result of an extreme, radical activist court that is legislating in ways that the Burger court would ever have dared. It is dangerous and needs to be overturned. If that can be done with a constitutional amendment, then let's do that immediately. If we have to change over Congress first then let's get going But this is purest bullshit and it should not be allowed to stand. |
2014-07-02T22:31:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23825 |
| I'll reply in small pieces. It is ridiculous that companies are on the hook for health care for the reasons I stated - it is the worst of both worlds. It does not create a free market, with its benefits, nor does it create universal coverage. It is a hybrid system that guarantees the greatest expense possible with inadequate results. No other nation in the world has a system for this - and ours is by far the most expensive and least productive. Go ahead, defend this system. I'd love to hear someone try because I have tried to come up with one good reason why this is the way it should be done. I can't. |
2014-07-02T22:22:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23824 |
| I do hope that the need for single payer is what comes out of this. It could be a wonderful decision after all, no matter how bizarre its legal basis. But yes, corporations have more rights than women, I can't see any other way to read this. |
2014-07-02T22:19:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23823 |
| Good idea. That's the best way to get this court's attention. | 2014-07-02T22:17:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/07/02/the-long-reach-of-personhood/#comment-23822 |
| As I was writing this, Eric Cantor was losing his primary for many of the same reasons noted here. His Tea Party challenger has very different solutions than what I do, but won at least in part by going after Cantor as a "Crony capitalist who favors big business over main street". So, that happened. Let's see where it goes. |
2014-06-11T01:43:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/11/working-rich/#comment-23193 |
| To answer your question at the end, "Yes, of course, that is far, far the preference." So how do we make that happen? | 2014-06-11T00:48:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/11/working-rich/#comment-23192 |
| I think I may have to, this was a big miss. All the signs were present for another big gain, but we're still in the same pattern we've been in for 3 years - up about 190k jobs every month. It should start accelerating here if we're going to get where we need to be by the end of the year. | 2014-06-04T16:54:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-23088 |
| Apparently. :-) | 2014-06-04T16:50:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-23086 |
| Yes, the 2022 Olympics have only two viable bidders left, Beijing and Almaty, Kazakhstan. Both are considered bad choices. The whole sports thing has gotten way, way out of hand. It will have to come down a notch or several. |
2014-06-04T16:50:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/04/brazil-comes-of-age/#comment-23085 |
| That is about where it is now - we know nothing too unreasonable will happen. From there, who knows? It seems like it has to get better eventually. | 2014-06-03T14:17:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-23063 |
| We will find out shortly on the jobs report. Ukraine may take a lot longer, probably not until the end of the summer for sure. | 2014-06-03T14:16:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/06/02/better-news-ahead/#comment-23062 |
| Thanks, let's keep trying to get through this. | 2014-06-03T14:10:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/30/yes-all-women/#comment-23061 |
| Martha, I would like to think that we don't have to demonize all men, but I can see why it happens. Not being in the position of being a potential victim I honestly don't know what to say. I hope your view can win, however. For my part, all I can do is to make as much space for that as possible. | 2014-06-03T14:10:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/30/yes-all-women/#comment-23060 |
| Describing the perpetrators is always a culturally loaded problem. It is strange what they tend to emphasize. | 2014-06-03T14:08:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/30/yes-all-women/#comment-23059 |
| Thank you | 2014-06-03T14:07:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/30/yes-all-women/#comment-23058 |
| Very good. Some of this is not about cold numbers, but instead about how people feel. We won't change things for the better until we reach that. | 2014-05-29T21:13:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/28/changing-attitudes-about-work/#comment-22972 |
| Yes, we have to use this time of great change to actively build a system that works for everyone. That system is horribly broken, and the social agreements it was built on seem like a fairy tale now. So let's do something about it. | 2014-05-29T21:12:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/28/changing-attitudes-about-work/#comment-22971 |
| There you go! :-) | 2014-05-28T23:48:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/28/changing-attitudes-about-work/#comment-22955 |
| This is where households earn their money, so there are no costs associated with it. It used to be half from wages and half from investments, and now the money earned is less than half from wages. Make sense now? | 2014-05-28T23:48:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/28/changing-attitudes-about-work/#comment-22954 |
| Thanks. I guess my starting point is that we were a nation with 60% or less of the potential labor force working, and overall it was something like a Baroque Era of great wealth. For those who could participate in the standard arrangement happily the economic times were good. It wasn't a flexible system at all, depending on large coherent family units that all got along and weren't abusive, but it did work in a larger economic sense. The secret of that system was that it kept people out of work, meaning that those who worked could organize and demand higher wages. So, assuming that only so many people can work, how do we equitably distribute the income? And, for that matter, how do we get people do do the work that isn't usually paid - such as raising the kids, keeping the community operating, taking care of the sick or old, et cetera? Not only do I not know, I can't answer that by myself - it has to come from some broader social agreement that everyone buys into. What I can tell you is that the old agreement was based on a good day's pay for a good day's work. That's clearly broken, and it's broken in large part because there's only so much paid work to go around. If we're going to rebuild that, we have a lot to work out as a people. |
2014-05-24T16:41:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/23/enough-work-to-go-around/#comment-22865 |
| There really is a long list of "the hottest thang" turning bad, isn't there? You could almost add Yahoo. to the list, IMHO. It might be cool to have the top sites by traffic for each year since 1995. I'll see if I can get that. | 2014-05-23T22:21:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22845 |
| I haven't heard of dogpile in years! It's still around. :-) | 2014-05-23T22:20:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22844 |
| There are some definite signs that younger people aren't entering the workforce as quickly as in past generations - and most are staying in school longer. That was discussed in the Philadelphia Fed report on workforce participation, but apparently it's very much debatable. The effect you describe would be a wash, since the older worker remains in the workforce at the expense of the younger. Both are definite trends, and I am willing to reconsider my stand if there is a good study showing that the young who are staying in school longer are doing so for economic reasons alone - ie, they would rather be working. No one has really studied this carefully before, so methodology is always questionable. I guess I have to concede that much. It's worth pointing out that the unemployment rate for 20-24 year olds is dropping faster than the overall unemployment rate (U3) FINALLY, meaning that there are more jobs for young people. This is partly due to the retirement wave, but some of it is due to (slowly) improving economic conditions. Perhaps the retirement wave credited with the drop in workforce participation from 2012-2014 should be modified once we see if the kids still in school now start to enter the workforce in larger numbers later this year. I sure hope they can all find jobs if all they are doing is ducking into school to wait out the bad times. |
2014-05-20T02:50:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/19/the-big-story/#comment-22755 |
| Good piece. I don't doubt this for a second, because credit is very hard to come by right now. My hunch is that it won't come back until we hit something like "full employment", however that is defined. Like so much of this it's all chicken and egg - the economy won't improve until there are jobs and easy credit, but we won't have those until the economy improves. Look at Europe, though! Ug. |
2014-05-19T13:14:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/19/the-big-story/#comment-22748 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-05-17T20:48:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/23/pragmatism/#comment-22715 |
| It is "too clever by half" in a longer form like this, but most advertising is done in the second person. If you look for it you can see it. I think it's worth practicing in long form if you are going to do the short form well. | 2014-05-16T21:09:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/14/2nd-person/#comment-22697 |
| It goes in waves. | 2014-05-16T21:07:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/14/2nd-person/#comment-22696 |
| It will be many years before we get there, but I think we need that as a goal. It will take conservation, development of alternatives, and yes, some drilling. I'm game for it. | 2014-05-16T21:07:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/16/oil-patchwork/#comment-22695 |
| The more I think about it, the more I realize that this is the most important thing we can do to improve the health of the planet. If we have to confront our own mess I am sure something will be done about it. | 2014-05-16T21:05:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/16/oil-patchwork/#comment-22694 |
| The plan has to involve not only use of domestic energy but a replacement for fossil fuels. I think I made that very clear. The 4% reduction in the last 5 years, despite a growing population, is only a start. | 2014-05-16T21:04:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/16/oil-patchwork/#comment-22693 |
| A succinct and unfortunately accurate analysis, I think. | 2014-05-16T21:03:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/16/oil-patchwork/#comment-22692 |
| Yes, indeed. | 2014-05-12T13:39:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/12/an-anxious-spring/#comment-22604 |
| Great additions to the conversation, thank you. Ukraine does benefit greatly from an arrangement with the EU. | 2014-05-10T21:21:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22570 |
| It was a great game last night! (that was the 4th of the series, the Wild won 4-2) | 2014-05-10T19:17:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/02/the-check-is-against-the-boards/#comment-22564 |
| At its worst, yes, it is. It can be more and has been. | 2014-05-10T19:17:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22563 |
| Good point - if we do conduct a war on crime we have to be sure it isn't hijacked by the usual suspects. My gut tels me that while the NSA, et al, don't actually plan events that lead to their gaining more power they are always prepared to expand their power at any opportunity. Kind of a Reichstag Fire theory. | 2014-05-10T19:16:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22562 |
| This I can agree with completely. You are looking at the genesis of this problem, which clearly is at least as much about the establishment of the rule of law as it is free trade. The problem was that the EU didn't pony up $15B when that was the cost of Ukrainian friendship, but Russia did. Now, the tab is $17-32, depending on how you count. But this is all about the politics of criminal gangs and/or how to defeat them. It's more than "corruption" as we typically understand it in the developed world - this is a systemic and deep problem. And the EU utterly failed in every way. I have also been looking for anything that describes the US role prior to November. If you come up with anything, please share. I don't think we had anything of significance going on (despite what Russian and/or leftist propaganda constantly claims) but I could be wrong. I simply have yet to see evidence that we played any significant role. But the EU definitely had no idea what they were getting into, that is clear. |
2014-05-10T05:26:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22547 |
| If it did come to that, what would stop the nukes from flying? Or the war from spreading to Belarus and so on? That's the problem with Ukraine - it's not at all an isolated problem. As much as there is a Westphalian obligation to preserve the sanctity of a "nation state", there is also a tremendous amount of peril in this one. Russians still call it "The Ukraine", not "Ukraine" - which is to say "The Border Region". | 2014-05-10T05:21:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22546 |
| I don't see it coming to that, ever. And I hope it doesn't. | 2014-05-10T05:18:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/09/credit-where-its-due/#comment-22545 |
| There are about 3B internet users, so 250M is about 8,3%. In the US, there are 268 internet users and 23M twitter users, a similar number. It's not a big market share by any measure. http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/#bycountry http://www.forbes.com/sites/victorlipman/2013/05/01/the-worlds-most-active-twitter-country-hint-its-citizens-cant-use-twitter/ |
2014-05-07T02:49:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22495 |
| Yes! :-) | 2014-05-07T02:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/30/the-moral-lowground/#comment-22493 |
| There are some fairly obvious things in there, like double-tapping to zoom. A good list of the patents involved in round 1 is here: http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/08/24/a-verdict-reached-jury-apple-v-samsung-case/ I don't see how most of those patents pass the test for not being obvious based on the state of the art. | 2014-05-07T02:35:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/30/the-moral-lowground/#comment-22492 |
| That would be a wise policy, yes. Just stay out of the news and pray everyone forgets about you. | 2014-05-07T02:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/30/the-moral-lowground/#comment-22491 |
| I get to make fun of Florida all I want. And Manic Depression explains reporting on financial news more than the news itself. So there. :-) | 2014-05-07T02:30:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/30/the-moral-lowground/#comment-22490 |
| Yes, my love for the team is inspired by pure homerism. Sue me. :-) | 2014-05-07T02:28:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/02/the-check-is-against-the-boards/#comment-22489 |
| I'm watching now. Not a great game, but I'm still a Wild fan no matter what. Go Wild! | 2014-05-07T02:28:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/02/the-check-is-against-the-boards/#comment-22488 |
| It's a really simple problem that can't be solved by the survey methods used. There are about 140M jobs in the US. You find out about how many there are in the month you're in now and subtract the last month to get a difference of about 200k - that's a difference of 0.14%. No survey is ever going to be that accurate with any decent confidence interval no matter what you do. Over a period of a year the difference is more like 1.7%, which is theoretically possible to uncover with a massive sample - which they have. So annually we can be sure it's right, quarterly maybe close, and monthly just forget it. The ADP method is mysterious, but they are counting actual increases in payroll - not a survey. Time has shown it's much smoother month by month. The BLS just doesn't have the data at their disposal to do this, so it's up to ADP to deliver it for us. They do, and it's good. |
2014-05-07T02:27:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/05/pick-a-number-any-number/#comment-22487 |
| I think we can have very good news without the headline unemployment falling. Remember, I think that U6 is more reliable, so if that falls without U3 falling we are gaining full-time work for those who want it and starting to absorb the "marginal workers". That is what I expect to be the strongest trend this summer, not a drop in U3 (the headline number). If the 1.8:1 ratio held we'd have a U6 of 11.3 instead of 12.3 - a big difference. I see it heading that way. If you want a solid prediction, I'll go as far as to say that we have job growth more on the order of 220k solid each month (2.6M per year, a 13% bump in the rate) and by the end of the year U3 around 6.0% and U6 around 10.8%. That's nearly 2% improvement in U6 over the year. How's that for Sunshine? :-) |
2014-05-07T02:21:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/05/pick-a-number-any-number/#comment-22486 |
| On second read, I'm pretty hard on Twitter here. But I do think something is going to have to change. They're losing money AND not growing, which is a serious problem. That they have just a shade more monthly users than Tumblr is not where they want to be. The hype has them positioned as one of the top social media sites, but Instagram is beating them in user time and Snapchat is close on their heels. They aren't dead, and they will not die - nothing really dies (except pets.com, but that was different). I frankly expect something to change first. We'll see how foolish I look in a year, so bookmark the post. :-) |
2014-05-07T02:09:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/05/07/whither-twitter/#comment-22483 |
| Thank you very much! No need for bravery, we're all pretty kind people. I have my own ways of killing the obnoxious ones with kindness and reason. :-) Welcome! | 2014-05-02T22:45:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-22419 |
| I simply wish we did it better, overall. It's a good thing, even a great thing, when done well. | 2014-04-29T16:47:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/28/satire/#comment-22366 |
| Interesting thought! It's not a law, I think, but it's an old ruling that went to the Supreme Court. But the argument that these very unfunny sites aren't satire and not protected would be very interesting. I'd have to dig out the Supreme Court's ruling and determine what they thought was protected and why. | 2014-04-28T20:38:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/28/satire/#comment-22348 |
| There are nazis there, yes, but I don't think they control things. But they are worth keeping an eye on. | 2014-04-27T01:46:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22323 |
| I hope there isn't more fighting, but it's escalating all the time. I do think there will have to be something more. I heard recently that Ukrainians are being "purged" from Crimea as the Russians take over. I agree that this is a legitimate revolution, but I constantly read Russian propaganda that the US left likes to repeat claiming that this was started by the US and/or Europe as part of a covert operation. It's nonsense, of course, but I'm sure we have our side and our people on the ground. The John Perkins crowd is pretty vocal, however. |
2014-04-27T01:35:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22322 |
| I should have read down in the comments more - you put it better than I did even before I did. :-) | 2014-04-25T21:07:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22303 |
| If Europe was in great shape, the rise in the value of the Euro wouldn't be a big deal. Same for a possible war on their East. But they have both of those problems, and I just think this is no time to be parsimonious. This is an historic moment, at least on the war front - though I have long shown that their stinginess to their member states is the main reason they have slow growth. | 2014-04-25T21:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22302 |
| Yes, Russia has nukes. I haven't seen that mentioned in any of the news stories, but we have to be treading a little lighter than we would for any other nation because of this. I agree that avoiding war is the most important thing. I also think that the US has a very limited role in any of this, and I really hope NATO doesn't get involved. |
2014-04-25T21:05:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/25/eurocrisis-ii-the-hot-one/#comment-22301 |
| Your criticism of the lack of details is warranted, however in an article it's important to focus on the topic at hand. There's only so much that can be said in 1000 words. Russia was in such dire straights right after the fall it was unreasonable to expect a fast leveling with the rest of the world. Whatever was to go down had to be a lengthy process. Perhaps they're in the best possible process for the long haul, but I doubt it. And I do agree that the Baltics, in particular, were desperate to run under NATO cover for fairly obvious reasons. I dunno, how do you build a nation more or less from scratch? I still think Malaysia is doing a pretty good job, although they are not exactly an open society - yet. As for the BRIC hype, I'm with you there. |
2014-04-23T21:17:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/23/pragmatism/#comment-22260 |
| I will think about this some more. I don't disagree that we need to move towards renewables, and I've written about that in the past. But - and this is the big one - I haven't found anyone who has written about a good path to getting us there without a lot of upheaval. Maybe we have to have a lot of turmoil, but I'd like to think this through. I guess I owe that much to you all after this post. Let me see what I can find. As for provincial power in Canada, I am starting to think they do have it right. I have long favored more state power in the US, and I think that nearly all states are pretty well run. Seeing how that works in a very similar nation is interesting. |
2014-04-23T20:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22258 |
| Yup. Very much so. $10k ($3 point something trillion divided by 300 million people) would have caused inflation, but what about $1k? ... Or, perhaps, $2.56k? (joke - oddly specific numbers are always suspicious ... :-) ) |
2014-04-23T16:22:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/18/the-underground-economy/#comment-22252 |
| I think I answered that above. :-) Yes, let's talk about that in the comments. I wasn't ready to think that through when I wrote this piece. There is a lot more on that topic and it is very complex. | 2014-04-23T16:20:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22251 |
| Something has to be left out of this unless you are writing a book. As for "more oil", I'm coming at this from energy independence as a first goal. I think that North American oil is the first step and probably the only one that is important for that. Beyond that, yes, we have to conserve and develop renewable sources - but that is going to take time. My vision of a grand compromise is to build up the pipeline infrastructure we need to move the new sources of oil (Athabasca tar and Baken). I think there should be some standard that insists that oil moved is "refinery ready" and roughly WIT grade for safety and cleanliness. For that, we have a deal more like the Alaska Pipeline that is owned by the government and charges a healthy rate for using it. We invest that money in alternative energy sources and conservation. I'd also like to move us to a methane / natural gas based economy rather than oil because it's not only cleaner but will point to a simple renewable source (digester gas) that I've written about before. But I'm still thinking about this some and looking at what has been proposed. As you can see in the above comments I missed how our supply of North Sea oil has diminished (in my defense, the oil used on the East Coast is still called "Brent" because of its grade and price, which is why I was confused). So, yes, this is incomplete. But I do think what we have in front of us is primarily a Canadian problem that they have to solve on their own. Their solution for the last 40 years has been primarily to just send the junk south and let the US deal with it. That's not good for anyone. |
2014-04-23T16:19:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22250 |
| I do believe that North American oil is a good working definition of "energy independence". As for Venezuela, it's just not working for them and they'll have to modify it. I tried to address that problem in the next post. | 2014-04-23T16:12:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22249 |
| I don't know that I would call him a "pragmatist" - he is so passive, as you pointed out. Perhaps there has to be a statement of action or actual movement towards the goal as part of the definition. | 2014-04-23T16:11:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/23/pragmatism/#comment-22248 |
| Yes, it is. That’s what started me down this line of thinking. All that we see unfolding now is the direct result of this rigid ideology dressed up like a plan – when it really wasn’t. | 2014-04-23T16:10:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/23/pragmatism/#comment-22247 |
| You are right - this is far more complicated than it used to be. We're actually getting refined gasoline from Europe, which is weird: http://priceofoil.org/2012/02/16/east-coast-refinery-shut-downs-are-a-symptom-of-the-tar-sands-oil-rush/ And Canada is right now getting oil for its east coast mainly from the US. http://www.fuelsnews.com/u-s-gulf-coast-crude-oil-exports-eastern-canada-increase/ http://oilandgas-investments.com/2012/oil-prices/us-east-west-oil-pipeline/ The long and short of it is that there is no good supply right now on the east coast, for both Canada and the US. The pipelines we have are also inadequate, and most of the oil (or gasoline) arrives by tanker. It looks like we have our own work to do, too. But there's no doubt in my mind that a pipeline to the east coast, in Canada and/or the US, is highly desirable. I'm going to have to do a lot more research - things have changed a lot recently. |
2014-04-22T02:47:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22203 |
| As of this January, the US produces 11.7M bbl per day and imports 9.5M bbl/day. Of those imports, 2.7M come from Canada and 1.1M from Mexico, meaning that of the 21.2M bbl we consume 12.3M are North American, or a bit under 60% of it. New Canadian pipelines and oil fields are expected to add about 1M from Canada, meaning we'll be around 2/3 of our oil from North America. That's pretty amazing. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/21/usa-keystone-canada-idUSL2N0NC0CR20140421 http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/us_oil.cfm |
2014-04-22T01:34:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22199 |
| A recent report by Energy Defence of Canada, an environmental group, showed that the capacity of the pipeline exceeds Canada's needs and therefor most of what will be shipped will be for export. Much of that is expected to go to the US East Coast, which is relies heavily on North Sea Brent Oil. That's why gasoline is more expensive in the Northeast. However, there are other fields off Newfoundland such as Hebron and Bay du Nord that will come on line with cleaner crude that is also expected to be exported to the US, so it's not clear just where the tar sands stuff will go. But more oil on our east coast is a good thing. So the environmental groups are saying this is a bad deal for Canada because most of the oil has to wind up in the US. Believe them if you want. :-) | 2014-04-22T01:19:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22197 |
| Yes, Keystone XL also goes through Baken - which desperately needs a pipeline. It may need two, one for liquids and one for gas that is currently being flared. The more I think about this, the more it's all about Canada dumping their junk on the US because our standards are so much slacker than theirs. It's really embarrassing. By stalling, we're going to get them to up their infrastructure and clean the stuff up, it seems. Ontario and Quebec are likely to demand it be partially refined to be as clean as WTI, roughly. If that's the deal Ontario gets, we should get it, too. It's a pretty good sounding standard, frankly. And that wouldn't have come to pass without stalling. If we do get that I will support this pipeline especially because it hooks up Baken. But it's even cooler with a pipeline to eastern Canada. |
2014-04-21T21:12:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22193 |
| It was a good day, glorious weather. I'm glad you had a break after tax season! | 2014-04-21T05:10:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/14/resurrection/#comment-22178 |
| Only the US Dollar, as the global reserve currency, has this problem. As global trade increases, 85% in US Dollars, we lose more and more control over our currency every day. The power that it brings us (read: those with a lot of Dollars) is intoxicating, but it has a price. | 2014-04-21T05:08:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22177 |
| Jobs are the most important way out, yes. But as for monetary policy, writing a check to everyone for $10,000 would have cost the Fed about as much as all the QE they did - but would have had far more interesting results. | 2014-04-21T05:05:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/18/the-underground-economy/#comment-22176 |
| And yes, I think there is plenty of room for a new populism today - for all the same reasons. | 2014-04-21T05:04:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/18/the-underground-economy/#comment-22175 |
| Yes, and deliberately so. You can read about these problems in many articles and I think that they are worth a read. But I have come to see this as a Canadian problem and I think that we have to trust Canada to appropriately regulate it. They are seeking cleaner ways of doing it. Whether or not that is possible, or the extraction has to stop, is up to them in my opinion. I see plenty of reasons to oppose the Keystone XL pipeline based on US interests first, so I am going to go with that. Canada's rather heavy reliance on exports of commodities should trouble them for a lot of reasons, and I wish them the best as they figure this out. | 2014-04-21T05:02:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22174 |
| Yes, that is the conclusion I came to as well. | 2014-04-21T04:55:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/21/keystone-xl-no-decision-a-good-decision/#comment-22171 |
| I'm working on an honorary PhD in economics, so I have to contradict myself periodically. :-) Seriously, I'm not really a Social Democrat, I'm an American Democrat. I believe in the free market first - except when there's an obvious market failure. I do believe that the system we work under is not pure capitalism, or the rule of money, but based on an ideal called a "Free Market" - which is defined socially and legally as much as it is economically. So if I seem harshly negative, it's a reflection of what I see as a need for more regulation to open up access to the market. Perhaps I should be more explicit about that in the future to be (or at least sound) more consistent. |
2014-04-17T22:32:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22122 |
| It all depends how you look at it. C'mon, you're an economist - isn't there always, "On the other hand ..." ? :-) Seriously, I have been wondering why with all this printing there isn't inflation. It took some digging, but I found at least one answer. It seems like a good one. But it does make me wonder how long it'll last. |
2014-04-17T16:01:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22117 |
| China is still chugging along, but they are definitely going to hit the wall soon, if I believe what I read. I think Russia has already really screwed itself over Ukraine. The BRICS are certainly not what they seemed. | 2014-04-17T12:34:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22114 |
| We're still in the Postwar world in many ways, where the US dominates. That is ending, but not in an "end of an empire" way - more with a whimper. | 2014-04-17T12:33:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22113 |
| It's all because of the backward situation forced on us by being the world's reserve currency. That gives us tremendous power, but only for those who can exercise it. Working people are at a disadvantage in this regime. That's why I proposed a "Trade Weighted Exchange" some time back, a currency based on a basket of currencies that will wean us off of the role that is hurting us so much. | 2014-04-16T20:38:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22093 |
| Yes, we're being lied to about austerity. That simple. And yes, a strong dollar really only benefits those who have a lot of 'em. | 2014-04-16T20:35:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/#comment-22092 |
| Happy Easter, Dale! | 2014-04-15T04:48:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/14/resurrection/#comment-22069 |
| I didn't see that! Very interesting. I think this was the group of nuns that was subject to papal sanction before, basically a slap-down, so we'll see what happens to them for this! | 2014-04-15T04:47:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/14/resurrection/#comment-22068 |
| Exactly. This is the flipside of "productivity gains", which is a fancy term for less work to go around. :-) I'm a Gen-Xer, so for me even moreso on how things are picked over! | 2014-04-15T04:46:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-22067 |
| This is the kind of leading indicator I like! Can we get any other anecdotes like this? Without violating confidentiality, of course. | 2014-04-15T04:44:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/11/the-case-for-optimism/#comment-22066 |
| That is part of the problem - people are still acting like any gain they get is not permanent. | 2014-04-15T04:43:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/11/the-case-for-optimism/#comment-22065 |
| It is about the proof. I'm making predictions here, because I think they will happen. If they don't we have a serious problem. | 2014-04-15T04:42:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/11/the-case-for-optimism/#comment-22064 |
| Yes. One thing I forgot to mention is that if someone is paid biweekly and they live paycheck-to-paycheck, their velocity is about 26. We found before that in the cash economy it's at least 7. So how does it get to just 1.4 overall? A lot of money is being sat on. | 2014-04-10T18:01:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/09/velocity-and-inflation/#comment-21997 |
| Thanks, and we might very well have an inflation problem. But that would help free up all that money in a big way. More inflation might be good for us. | 2014-04-10T05:33:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/09/velocity-and-inflation/#comment-21991 |
| There's no judgment about who is more developed here, and Canada is always listed as a developed nation. Some of the developed nations have very high labor force participation (US, Australia) and some rather low (Japan). I grouped together the largest economies in the world, which includes both developed and developing - with no call as to who is who. Yes, we do have a lot of unskilled jobs, as you've shown. Calling "most" work skilled might well be pushing it. I have been meaning to look at how the mix in the open jobs compares to the mix in filled jobs. But, yes, more workers only digs the hole deeper after a while. And 60% LFP is around the right answer, at least with a 40 hour workweek. Interesting. |
2014-04-10T05:33:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21990 |
| You have a point, but I'd hate to take it to its logical conclusion. Germany is an interesting exception, but I think it's more about social pressure on high-power executives to not take a lot of money than anything else. | 2014-04-08T01:53:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21951 |
| While doing a better version of this piece for Mint Press, I found that in 2008 there were still 7.7M unemployed then, for a rate of 5%. Unemployment never went near the threshold for "full employment" in the 00s, which is part of my argument that this has been one long Depression. So we've gained 2.8M workers, and that's what the working population grew by in 6 years. Note that it will decline by about that much in the next few years, even before we add more jobs. | 2014-04-07T20:52:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/04/jobs-back-to-even/#comment-21947 |
| I was talking about this on basefook, partly in response to your calling me Mr. Sunshine. :-) It turns out that most people are pretty pessimistic. | 2014-04-07T20:50:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/04/jobs-back-to-even/#comment-21946 |
| I will try to put the graph I created on the bottom, but the R-Squared is 61% - not a bad correlation, but not great. I think there is something to this. | 2014-04-07T20:38:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21945 |
| I seem to remember from my mis-spent childhood in front of a teevee that Jeanie created more trouble than she solved, so I dunno ... | 2014-04-07T20:37:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21944 |
| But how much of that work are people willing to pay for? In the old days, women tended to stay home - and many did a lot of volunteer work. There's no reason men can't do that, too, but we're not set up for that. Before 1968 the labor force participation rate never crossed 60% - and things were running pretty well. Interesting? | 2014-04-07T20:36:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/07/enough-work/#comment-21943 |
| Truly sage words. :-) Thanks! | 2014-04-03T20:17:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/02/markets-big-day/#comment-21888 |
| It's all worth a try. | 2014-04-03T02:51:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/02/markets-big-day/#comment-21879 |
| I will do some more research - this is the first time he came to my attention. The video is interesting - a very reluctant hero at best. He's Canadian. :-) | 2014-04-02T15:52:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/04/02/markets-big-day/#comment-21877 |
| There are a lot of other things like this, I'm sure. Accounting was one that came to mind. | 2014-04-02T15:51:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-21876 |
| OK, we are in agreement, then, mostly. :-) I'm not sure about "required courses" generally, as I think that a well guided student should be able to gain whatever knowledge they want. But yes, some level of this kind of thing as a "Home Economics" course should be available. Thinking this through, some kind of resource available for everyone, including adults, is not a bad idea at all. Community / Technical colleges do have the resources to provide this and there are many classes around, but it seems a bit haphazard. Perhaps a Center for Industrial Arts located here in my city of St Paul could make an example and start the process rolling as an option for students young and old. But I do think that something like this should be available for free to everyone as a kind of minimum. How much we "require" in high school is another debate. And I agree completely on critical thinking and analytical skills. Heck, I could write a number of posts on ideas for education, and I have a few. I like the idea of "overview" courses that ground students in basics and make it easier for them to know how to select what they want to know more about. |
2014-03-31T03:31:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-21850 |
| I am assuming you are sarcastic, so I'll respond accordingly. I'm not in any way suggesting we replace a liberal arts education, but supplementing it - and making a solid option available for those who want it. Many kids really do want to know these things and they should have that option. | 2014-03-31T03:19:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-21848 |
| Ha! Hadn't thought of that. But yes, everyone needs to know these things, or at least be familiar with them. Perhaps a scaled-down version might be a good required course, along the lines of Home Economics (though I am generally against required courses). | 2014-03-31T03:03:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/31/industrial-arts/#comment-21846 |
| They are predators, no doubt. Thanks! | 2014-03-31T03:01:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/28/cant-wait-til-payday/#comment-21845 |
| Yes, Credit Unions are the best alternative - people need to use them much more! | 2014-03-31T03:01:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/28/cant-wait-til-payday/#comment-21844 |
| I hadn't thought of that angle, thank you very much. Is there anything the Patriot Act doesn't touch? Pawnshops are another reality, yes. I should write about that some day. |
2014-03-28T02:28:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/28/cant-wait-til-payday/#comment-21811 |
| About 200%. Although, I think a lot of people there are cashing their checks, not taking out loans. I have been told that for many people the fees they charge are not that bad compared to a bank - but I wish that people were at Credit Unions! | 2014-03-28T02:26:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/28/cant-wait-til-payday/#comment-21810 |
| I agree - I wonder what it will take to get people into the streets here. Taiwan joins Brazil as nations where people are demanding the basic things that make an open society - not something as base as the demands in Ukraine or the Arab Spring. Why can't we have the same kind of movement here? | 2014-03-26T20:39:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-21794 |
| That's where regulation is so important. But a system set up that is hard to game could have FDIC-like systems all through it, and the insurance charges to make that possible should pay their own way. | 2014-03-26T14:31:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/26/fault-tolerance-2/#comment-21790 |
| Yes. Translation, "Our presses are always a'rollin' when the Big Boyz need a quick fix." Go ahead and sleep - they do try to make sure things like that happen in the night as much as possible. |
2014-03-25T03:17:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-21777 |
| Yes, it is the last thing they want. And it probably is the explicit promise of higher rates that spooked the market. But seriously .... who didn't see it coming? | 2014-03-25T01:18:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-21774 |
| I agree. Women have consistently been good reformers. That may be more due to their outsider status than their gender, per se, but whatever works. | 2014-03-25T01:18:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/24/a-more-open-fed/#comment-21773 |
| Do Obama and Putin keep their shirts on, or not? | 2014-03-22T00:18:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21738 |
| Yes! It means "Pilsner from the original source," which is to say the original maker of the style in Pilsen, Czech Republic. That's its German name. In Czech it's "Plzensky Prazdroj," meaning the same. The spelling Urquell is the masculine, but I prefer the feminine "Urquelle" - both are correct depending on dialect. Here's their US site: http://pilsnerurquell.com/us It is a good beer, and it is indeed the origin of the style! |
2014-03-22T00:18:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21737 |
| Good point. I'll bet many people retire before they think they are ready to. | 2014-03-22T00:13:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/19/golden-years/#comment-21736 |
| Thanks! | 2014-03-22T00:13:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21735 |
| Ditto. And yes, in the heat of an election all standards get thrown out. | 2014-03-22T00:13:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21734 |
| I like this one: https://scontent-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/t1.0-9/1958449_10152071335559482_1196900619_n.jpg also this one: https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/t1.0-9/q71/s720x720/1623748_585475748210109_1512289252_n.jpg (I hope these work) |
2014-03-22T00:12:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/21/seek-the-original-source/#comment-21733 |
| Thanks. I have been wondering for a while what the retirement age is and how it's changing, too! Zoning is ... one of those things. I honestly don't know how I feel about it in the abstract. Some zoning seems obviously necessary, but it's so easy to go overboard. But don't property owners have some right to protect their value? I can go many ways at once with it. |
2014-03-21T03:44:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/19/golden-years/#comment-21722 |
| Thanks, you do good work, too! The principle of a "negative income tax" as Friedman called it or any other guarantee that work makes a certain minimum is a very compelling one. The minimum wage functions essentially the same way, except it very much is a tax on employment. On that basis it is a bad idea, and I've argued in a lot of posts that we should not have taxes on employment, so you have a point. But the details utterly blow my mind, to be honest. :-) I also agree on tipping, but this is the system we have. Some restaurants have moved to a higher base wage and discourage tipping, especially in New York, so there may be a trend there. But it is a social thing at this point. Again, I can't disagree with you, but the details of moving away from the system we have are hard to grasp. There's a lot more to write about, for sure! If only I had a paying job where I could consider this all day. :-) Thank you for your contributions, I sill definitely follow you more closely and hope my readers do, too! |
2014-03-20T19:40:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21717 |
| The survey was about people's opinions, so it didn't get too far into how much they had saved - just whether it was "enough". | 2014-03-19T16:48:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/19/golden-years/#comment-21685 |
| I hadn't thought about the fees - I guess the banks are always the ones who get rich off anything. I'll think about the ACT - my daughter has some things to say about it, too. Many colleges don't really worry about it too much anymore, which is interesting. |
2014-03-19T16:47:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/19/golden-years/#comment-21684 |
| Please don't tip less! :-) | 2014-03-18T20:32:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21650 |
| Thank you, a good way to look at it. 0.5% added to inflation we see today ~1.0% is still well below the target of 2.0% that the Fed has. I suspect the net affect is the same nationwide, too, but I can't be sure. (BTW, when you write .5% most people can't see the decimal - that's why 0.5% looks so much better. :-) ) |
2014-03-17T19:29:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21618 |
| The cold weather is more of a damper on it here. Sleet is a killer. | 2014-03-17T19:27:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/14/st-patricks-day-4/#comment-21617 |
| We do get the best. It takes ambition to make a fresh start in a land of opportunity. | 2014-03-17T03:51:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/14/st-patricks-day-4/#comment-21600 |
| It's best to stay home, yes, but I do like to have just one at McGovern's. :-) | 2014-03-17T03:50:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/14/st-patricks-day-4/#comment-21599 |
| Thanks! | 2014-03-17T03:49:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/14/st-patricks-day-4/#comment-21598 |
| Fair enough, but we do have to start somewhere. What I am trying to do here is use something like a scientific method for politics - what is the worst that can happen? Think of it as the antithesis for the proposal. If this is as bad as it gets, how can you oppose it? But yes, we do need the benefits. I will work on that. | 2014-03-17T03:48:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21597 |
| Not at all. I was looking at a purely worst case scenario, which is that in the case of our state it runs at most half a cent per buck in the state's economy. That's purely the cost, not the benefit. I am sure the benefits are large, but that will take another calculation which I don't have at my disposal right now. |
2014-03-17T01:13:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/17/mn-minimum-half-a-cent-per-buck/#comment-21591 |
| Congratulations, you found a way to update the old fashion way of dealing with this for a TV and Internet age. | 2014-03-13T20:08:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21544 |
| You make an excellent point. If we want to get serious about combatting the Bratva, there must be many things we can do without having to take out Putin or anything else rash. And we should. One of the things that bothered me in all this is the tepid response from UK PM Cameron. London is the main destination for Bratva money that has been laundered and seeks a safe haven away from Russia, and that money appears to have bought Cameron. We can't let that happen. So yes, let's have a "War on Crime" like our "War on Terrorism" and all that. We can start by using all the tools at our disposal to cut off their money, because a lot of the laundering through Miami into the Caymans and BVI is somewhat well known. An excellent point, thank you. |
2014-03-13T00:44:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21531 |
| There is indeed ethnic tension, but its importance is mostly related to how it is being exploited. I'm sure ethnic Russians would rather not go too Western, but there have to be ways to give them what they really want in terms of language righs, etc. Crimea was always an autonomous province for this reason. The boundaries largely reflect the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (1917), when Germany set out to punish Russia as severely as possible. They are artificial. Don't think that Russians don't know where the Ukrainian border came from, either, so it is a big sore point. I covered this before: http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/ |
2014-03-12T19:35:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21527 |
| I'm pretty steamed, but I must have written something pissier. The poll showed that people who watch only partisan nooze (Fox, MSNBC) are indeed misinformed, meaning those outlets are worse than useless. Maybe I'll be more angry for a bit. I'm really sick to death of how awful our media is generally. I don't know how we can call ourselves a free people when we are terribly misinformed. |
2014-03-12T19:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21526 |
| Thanks. I do not think this is all there is to the story, but it appears to be one of the most important parts and certainly the genesis of this round of rebellion. I cannot believe how it has been ignored. As for China, I just saw this today - http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/12/world/asia/china-torn-between-policies-and-partnership.html?_r=0 Apparently, not everything is about China, either - and they also don't know quite what to do about it. This will have to develop, I'm sure, but the certainly don't want to back away from Russia. Interesting problem for them. And great call on Yeltsin, thank you for that link. |
2014-03-12T19:29:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/12/us-get-over-yourselves/#comment-21525 |
| OK, then, let's call it "Zulu" and let everyone know it's what the US Military uses. That's right, the Time of Heroes! Better? :-) | 2014-03-11T03:32:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/10/time-flies/#comment-21485 |
| No, it doesn't. But if they would just stop screwing with the clocks ... :-) | 2014-03-10T18:42:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/10/time-flies/#comment-21476 |
| Thanks! | 2014-03-10T18:42:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/10/time-flies/#comment-21475 |
| There is indeed corruption everywhere, and it's a matter of degree. Point well taken. Their government was especially corrupt by our standards, so on a relative basis I'll stand by the comment. But yes, it's everywhere. | 2014-03-09T18:05:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21461 |
| I agree generally, which is why I support an infrastructure initiative. This is very interesting, and thanks for it. The gap between current GDP and "potential" was highlighted by the CBO recently, and I have to admit I don't understand it. Id like to know more about what goes into that calculation. But what I see in the link you sent is that the gap is really huge, and that is reasonable after the harsh downturn. The CBO claimed that we should make up the difference by 2022, which seems really odd to me. As for Krugman's piece, I generally agree except for two things - there are deficit issues in outlying years (as he notes, but discounts) that we should address now, and the velocity of the US Dollar is still very much in the toilet, something that suggests it's not a money supply problem but a more structural issue that is harder to address with simple stimulus. But with caution and a better accounting for ongoing expenditures versus capital I think we can manage whatever problems we have and yes, let's do a lot more to grow the economy into the debt we have accumulated already! |
2014-03-09T18:04:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21460 |
| That is a big number, but I think it's a bit too high. This is a reflection of the U6 unemployment number, which counts everything including not having enough hours, given up looking for work, etc. It's still at 13.1% overall, and that's a tragedy. I suspect that to get to the figure they are using they are including men voluntarily out of the workforce such as in school, raising the kids, etc, but the figure for workforce participation overall for men 25-54 was 88.7% in 2012. http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_303.htm That's more like 1 in 8 overall, and some are indeed voluntarily not working. I wish U6 was broken down by age and gender (anyone have a link?) but it's probably more on the order of 1 in 10. So I can't make sense of where they get that number. |
2014-03-09T00:25:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21445 |
| I'm glad this issue is finally getting some attention, but that is old data. Jan 2010 was the low point for jobs all around, and things were very desperate then. The unemployment rate for 20-24 year olds is down to 11.9% - still very high by any measure, but improving. It was slower at improving than the overall unemployment rate from 2010-2013, but finally showed some movement last year. I suspect it's because the hiring that was going on was largely to fill very specific needs and people with experience that allowed them to hit the job at top speed on day one were getting the work before kids right out of school. I don't doubt that a lot of people are taking any damned job they can find at this point in this environment. Opportunities for the young are still nowhere near where they need to be, IMHO. At any rate, the improvement is happening but it's very, very slow. I don't think we can say we are really "recovering" until the 20-24 unemployment rate hits its longer-term trend of about 7%, which at this rate appears years away. I think this stat is very much worth watching, as we did through 2013. |
2014-03-08T07:04:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21430 |
| That's ridiculous - France and Germany don't invade Russia in the Spring! :-) A chess match does sound like a good idea. Or, perhaps, we could spice up the Olympics by putting real territory on the line. |
2014-03-07T21:35:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21420 |
| I think that if there was to be more we would have seen it by now. Putin's advantage wears thinner the longer the rest of the world has to organize, so I think he would have struck by now if that was his plan. I may be wrong, of course, especially since I clearly don't think like Putin. So we will see. |
2014-03-07T17:43:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21414 |
| You are right, describing everything as a "War" is tiresome. It doesn't have to be that way. Ukraine is figuring out who they are, as a people, which is to say distinct from Russia. It's messy and doesn't always go according to a plan. But it should all come together. |
2014-03-07T16:33:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21412 |
| http://thecoloursisterhood.com/project/human-trafficking-prevention-education-ukraine The concern of the EU is outlined in the links given for the Eastern Partnership. It is a grave concern and one of the features of the Kiev Bratva. Yes, history plays a role here as this is almost traditional - our word "slave" comes from "slav". It is definitely the main reason there is a push for closer cooperation, along with the impudent cybercrime. |
2014-03-07T01:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21403 |
| After a brief panic on Monday, the markets appear to think otherwise. I would never discount brutality from Putin, but this seems to be the response from the West. Time will tell. | 2014-03-07T00:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/07/how-to-fight-a-war/#comment-21400 |
| I understood it that way. :-) | 2014-03-06T19:03:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21391 |
| I hate to criticize the Fed because they are the only ones actually doing something. QE3, or the $85B/mon in mortgage bonds, is really a jobs program. Congress wouldn't make one so the Fed did the best they could. I also agree that the inflation target of 2% seems to be a good one for keeping the US Dollar from falling out of line on Foreign Exchange, so they are apparently doing the right things so far. I do worry about China largely because they are far more strategic than we are. We are so short-term focused by comparison. I am not terribly worried about exporting our wealth to them, but -- I feel that there are fewer jobs for working people here as a result and over in China a small number of rich get richer while they work the nation like slaves and pollute it. Yes, that should even out eventually. I'd like it to even out sooner rather than later, and I'd really like it to happen before they acquire real power. |
2014-03-06T19:03:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21390 |
| No, they aren't. They probably should be, based on what I have seen. The Euro at $1.37 has to be killing them. They have a deflation problem, too, which is to say imports are getting cheaper all the time. The Germans are still running the show, and they seem to just love austerity. Perhaps they will be proved right in the long run. |
2014-03-05T20:16:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21369 |
| It only really works for developing nations on the fast track - as Japan was in the 60s, China in the 90s, etc. I think they all have to hit the wall once they start to hit the big leagues. The experiment in Japan right now is probably doomed, but it's been a good ride so far. | 2014-03-05T20:14:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/05/ongoing-currency-war/#comment-21368 |
| At this time, I think you are right. However, if there is an invasion of all of Ukraine I think we will have to be involved because of our NATO obligations and the fears of other NATO nations like Poland. | 2014-03-04T15:30:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21335 |
| Apparently, that ultimatum was not real. Whew! Things are settling down a bit now. This will take a while to play out. | 2014-03-04T15:28:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21334 |
| Addendum: I have been thinking about this, and two thoughts come to mind. 1) The EU is not proposing anything more in terms of a relationship with Ukraine than helping to stomp out organized crime. Russia's reaction seems disproportionate when you consider that this initial relationship with the EU is pretty minor. Is the Putin government acting primarily to preserve the Kiev Bratva? Links between the government and the Bratva are hard to come by with actual proof, but it is clear that Putin et al are protecting them. Is this more than protection that was paid for, and is in fact policy? 2) Ukraine has more leverage than I thought. If Russia invades wholesale, they could blow up the oil and gas pipelines crossing their territory. Russia would be bankrupt in a month, and western Europe would be desperate. They would have to intervene to bring order to the situation. If I was in charge of Ukraine I would tell Russia, "Let's sit down and talk. Any further action will result in the pipelines being blown up. We have explosives already strapped to them." As of right now, Russia is trying to force Ukrainian forces out of Crimea entirely, and has threatened more action by 0300 GMT if they do not leave. This may be the flashpoint. Stay tuned. |
2014-03-03T17:38:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21308 |
| I do not think they are that stupid, but Russia does appear to be desperate. | 2014-03-03T17:32:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21307 |
| History is my "thing". :-) | 2014-03-03T03:11:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21295 |
| I believe he was bribed. It's the only thing that makes sense. And it gives me hope that the main way Russia is going to fight this war is to spread money around. | 2014-03-03T03:10:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21294 |
| That is the real point, in the end. | 2014-03-02T22:00:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/28/a-not-so-bold-plan/#comment-21287 |
| It does have to be done, yes, and there are many ways to pay for it. I am still holding out hope for real reform sometime. | 2014-03-02T22:00:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/28/a-not-so-bold-plan/#comment-21286 |
| That is the real problem. Russia is very serious, and our leverage is tiny. It is all a collection of unfinished business from the World Wars and the Cold War. | 2014-03-02T21:58:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21285 |
| Thanks. Sorry it is so long, but it had to be. | 2014-03-02T21:56:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/03/02/ukraniana/#comment-21284 |
| I agree, most of it is just trashing Obama. But some of it is darker and more persistent. We get over the Depression when people stop believing this stuff, I think, given that we have turned the corner. It's about time we move ahead. | 2014-02-26T17:10:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/26/6-myths-about-the-economy/#comment-21209 |
| I remember it well, too, which is why I practice it as much as I can. | 2014-02-25T15:38:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/24/talking-to-teens/#comment-21182 |
| I completely agree. The sooner the better! | 2014-02-25T15:37:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/24/talking-to-teens/#comment-21181 |
| Yes, that is the way it was. Great add, thank you! These guys are about the same, but I think they are a bit more grounded than we were. | 2014-02-25T15:37:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/24/talking-to-teens/#comment-21180 |
| Excellent! I couldn't agree with you more! | 2014-02-23T18:32:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/21/jobs-now/#comment-21142 |
| I have done this in the past, but I think we know a lot more now - such as a reasonable end-date for this business cycle and a lot more about the next wave. I may work on that this weekend - I have some work to do that will let my mind wander. :-) Thanks! |
2014-02-21T22:08:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/21/jobs-now/#comment-21117 |
| Thanks! | 2014-02-20T20:12:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/19/managing-innovation-2/#comment-21091 |
| You may well be right. Rebuilding that faith would be a huge investment, but if a company wants to innovate over the long haul it would be worth it, IMHO. | 2014-02-20T20:12:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/19/managing-innovation-2/#comment-21090 |
| That is largely what is happening, but the US is a center for research. Whether or not we can separate the making of products from their design and optimization is a real question, and I'm on your side here. It doesn't make sense to me that we can run the show if we don't do the work. | 2014-02-20T15:52:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/19/managing-innovation-2/#comment-21086 |
| If this happened every year, I would think we would become a lot meaner. :-) | 2014-02-19T04:30:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/17/a-humbling-cold/#comment-21061 |
| Thank you. I am quite sick of it, too. Was long ago! | 2014-02-19T04:30:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/17/a-humbling-cold/#comment-21060 |
| They think they are by keeping unions out of Tennessee, which is what their rigid ideology teaches them. It's stupid. | 2014-02-14T20:41:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20983 |
| I'm a bit surprised that he's directly involved in this. I thought his schtick was all about tax cuts. So this is a bit strange - but it is the "usual suspects", yes. | 2014-02-14T19:40:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20981 |
| If the left starts doing things like that, I promise you I'll be on top of it like this one. But they've been out of power for a long time and I don't see that coming any time soon. Yes, let's just let VW run the plant as they want to - given that they aren't doing anything harmful. |
2014-02-14T19:39:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20980 |
| Yes, it is! :-) | 2014-02-14T17:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20974 |
| Thank you, and I'd love to hear more from you as to how it's going. I'm sure this story is far from done, even after the vote. I'm simply stunned that what looks to me like a new chapter in management-labor relations forged as a great compromise is controversial at all. If VW wants to run their plant this way - well, more power to 'em. If they are successful perhaps everyone will copy them - and if they aren't it'll go down as a failed experiment. Why not try something new? They're putting their money down on it. It certainly can't hurt workers. |
2014-02-14T05:10:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/14/union-yes-maybe/#comment-20963 |
| Exactly. This is why I have been focused on youth unemployment for over a year now. http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/ http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/ But keep in mind that anything that says "Since the recovery began" is starting from the official "recovery" after the recession, which is to say in 2009. The low point for jobs was in January 2010, and we didn't see significant improvement until the end of 2011. Since the start of 2012 there has been some improvement, if slow. So I say that Brookings erred by looking at the official definitions of recession rather than the behavior of the job market itself, which has very much lagged any official "recovery". And this goes to the heart of my argument that we have been in a Depression since 2000: http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/ |
2014-02-14T04:30:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20960 |
| But with retirement, the percent of employees working WILL continue to drop, and there is little we can do to stop it. I do favor a jobs program, and that is what the bond buying program really is in the end. But - this will all start to come out in the wash once there is a labor shortage in the 2020s. I expect 2017 is the year that everything changes, and I'm very much sticking with that. http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/ Of course, we should do what we can to encourage employment growth today, but do it with an eye to restructuring the economy to the very new one that is arriving. |
2014-02-14T04:25:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20959 |
| Actually, no - it has increased by about 6M since the start of the depression in 2000, and 4M of that is accounted for by disability and retirement. Those leaving the workforce involuntarily has not been significant since January 2012. The Philadelphia Fed report on this is found here and my summary of this report and the other effects is found here. The total decline in participation since its peak in 2000 has been about 4 percentage points from 67% to 63%. This is about 6M people total in a workforce (over 16, not in military, jail or hospital) of 155M. It will continue to fall as people retire, too, hitting 60% or even less by 2020 as the peak Baby Boom hits retirement age. | 2014-02-13T14:10:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20939 |
| I am sure that at least some of the insurers are part of the heat on Obamacare. The industry as a whole seems to be enjoying the infusion of money, but I'm sure at least a few players are willing to spend a lot of money to counter the regulations that came with it. So, yes, I agree with you - accounting for non-uniformity over the population. |
2014-02-12T22:30:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/10/more-games-more-work/#comment-20919 |
| I believe they are going to continue tapering, but not go to zero. So expect a buy between $0-85M each month. I could use that kind of money to play with. :-) |
2014-02-12T22:28:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20918 |
| There may be a few, but I wouldn't expect too much. She seems as open as Bernanke and will probably continue to be about as available. | 2014-02-12T18:35:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/12/new-boss-same-as-old-boss/#comment-20911 |
| A good point, but outwardly they seem to be embracing this and working with the system. More insured people with government assistance is more money for them - although they are also much more tightly regulated. The focus on personality is indeed a standard Alinsky tactic - "Pick the target, freeze it, personify it." The right has done a good job of following Alinsky's prescription. Yes, the insurance industry has to be supporting at least some of this effort. But they aren't doing it openly. |
2014-02-10T16:05:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/10/more-games-more-work/#comment-20880 |
| I don't know what to say. The number is very low, but it also disagrees with the ADP reports. The BLS reported +113k jobs in January after only +137k in December. That sounds horrible. But ADP had +175k in January and +238k in December - a total difference of 163k jobs or more than 80k per month! They've never diverged this much before. I have no idea at all why this could have happened. |
2014-02-10T15:05:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/10/more-games-more-work/#comment-20878 |
| Yes, the US has been doing much better than all the other developed economies - Eurozone, Japan, and even UK. That's true over both the long and short term. So I can't help but think we're doing something quite right, generally. The debt we took on may not have been so terrible - it promoted more growth generally. It would be better without , though, yes. Good links, some useful charts there. Also, the writers included a lot of fundamentals which are very handy! |
2014-02-09T05:23:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/07/back-to-the-future-2/#comment-20860 |
| I can't find anything to confirm this. It's an elite group money-wise, so you'd have to find a corresponding study of any kind on the same group. A quick search didn't uncover anything. I'll keep an eye out for anything similar. | 2014-02-09T05:20:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/07/back-to-the-future-2/#comment-20859 |
| Credit card debt is declining, so my guess is that younger people are not picking up new debt, no. This poll does beg for more in depth questions and surveys of a broader population, yes. | 2014-02-09T05:19:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/07/back-to-the-future-2/#comment-20858 |
| I think the operative word here is "or", but many of them did come from rich families, yes. But the hard times still left a mark all the same. I would expect the conservative nature of this generation to be even more pronounced among the middle-class and poor. I also think this begs for more in-depth questioning about why they don't like stocks - I'll bet they think the market is rigged and/or a casino. |
2014-02-07T15:43:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/07/back-to-the-future-2/#comment-20824 |
| I would prefer to see taxes raised, but the main point is that the Democrats typically deny there is a problem with things as they are - which also threatens the entire system. | 2014-02-06T03:50:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/05/something-like-a-warning/#comment-20788 |
| That is the need - sometime after 2017 an actual balance. It would be helpful, especially in terms of keep the interest payments from taking over the budget later on. Once again, the Simpson-Bowles framework is the only way I can see anything happening. |
2014-02-05T21:14:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/05/something-like-a-warning/#comment-20781 |
| That is a good point. It's been discussed elsewhere, and there is a very real gap between "potential", or a line of constant growth extending forward from the 1990s until the 2020s and the real growth we are seeing. If they catch up, as shown, we have to have a few years of acceleration - not to mention a normalization of 4-5% growth. The chart does not show that. There is a mistake here. Thanks for pointing it out, I missed that. I will try to find other commentary on the CBO estimates to see where the mistake was made. |
2014-02-05T15:55:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/05/something-like-a-warning/#comment-20778 |
| Yes, I remember hiding cuts and bruises, too! Why did we do that? Seriously, that was dumb. I think the kids today are going to grow up to be really great, and they will do great things. I'm very impressed by them generally and I'm quite sure the world is in good hands. But some didn't get a chance to just be kids, which is not good. |
2014-02-04T17:38:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/03/kids-being-kids-amazing/#comment-20761 |
| I fixed those, thanks. Dunno what happened. A good point on "professionals" raising our kids so much, which is a problem. But the right kind of "safe" is very important. Yes, they shouldn't step in front of cars. But a space where they can fail without serious consequences is a good thing to have. How else can they learn what their limits are if they don't test them? |
2014-02-04T04:59:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/03/kids-being-kids-amazing/#comment-20743 |
| The competition is in March, I'll let you know. :-) Creating the right environment to nurture kids is difficult, but I am certain that if you err one way or the other the best one is to let them figure things out on their own. Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement. :-) | 2014-02-04T04:57:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/03/kids-being-kids-amazing/#comment-20742 |
| I think there are some weird formatting problems at the top you should take a look at. I agree that kids should have a chance to just play but there are a lot of dangerous things around. Like if you are near a busy street you really have to watch where they go. But they will learn pretty quickly if you teach them right. Absent parents are a big problem with everyone taking care of everyone else's kids. Maybe with more of the right attention and parents doing what they are supposed to we wouldn't have all the rules. |
2014-02-03T20:11:27+00:00 | Annalise Cudahy | http://erikhare.com/2014/02/03/kids-being-kids-amazing/#comment-20723 |
| Outside of Downtown the city is doing very well! I should have said more about the Port Authority and their ability to create useful industrial sites that do create jobs. | 2014-02-02T18:30:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/31/cities-and-the-future/#comment-20683 |
| The model they used for many years, office jobs, was a dead end. The new model is stressing residential development as a way of building a base for a nightlife and to bring back retail. I hope it works! | 2014-02-02T18:29:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/31/cities-and-the-future/#comment-20682 |
| St Paul needs a lot of help. It is a cool place all around but it dies way too early. | 2014-02-02T18:19:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/31/cities-and-the-future/#comment-20681 |
| Thanks! No, it does not follow that a 1% reduction in overhead cost gives us a 1% rise in employment, not at all. I have seen no studies on this and I don't know how I would approach it. I have been looking for the same costs in other nations, but I really can't find them - that might be one way to do it. | 2014-01-30T02:13:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/29/head-count-or-overhead/#comment-20620 |
| I accept that this is flawed, and I do think the Provaliant numbers are in many ways closer. Yes, paid leave includes vacation, sick pay, and so on, but it is non-productive work so it does count as "overhead". It's a category that other nations will be higher than us in, so there's always that to consider. I agree that outside of health insurance the costs do scale with wages, so as far as these numbers go they are going to be similar at all incomes. I suppose I should have calculated that with this ration a Minimum Wage of $7.25/hr is about $10.33/hr. So maybe a compromise to raise the Minimum Wage should be to reduce the other net "employment taxes" - and implement universal health care to take the burden off of business. Oh ... wait ... Republicans are against that ... damned! :-) |
2014-01-30T02:12:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/29/head-count-or-overhead/#comment-20619 |
| I don't know that I really like these numbers, but they are what we have. But yes, this is the real cost of employees and we look incredibly expensive. Other nations don't have the health care burden attached to manufactured goods (or other things, for that matter). | 2014-01-30T02:07:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/29/head-count-or-overhead/#comment-20618 |
| Thanks! I am thinking about how to mix it up a bit more. Now that I have a gig with Mint Press News I'm starting to think my biz/econ stuff should tend to migrate there and more social commentary should sit here. The latter is more popular. Although I do believe that they have to inform each other. I'm thinking about it. This is the kind of stuff I think about all the time. | 2014-01-28T05:44:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20608 |
| Yes, it has at times. Many times, in fact. But the history of revolutions tells me that if you can't imagine what comes next before you start ripping everything down what will come next is purest Hell. | 2014-01-28T05:42:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20607 |
| Thank you very much! | 2014-01-28T05:41:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20606 |
| As a father, that worries me. And I do believe that a few years from now things will change around - but only if we can imagine a much better world. I'm afraid we've lost the ability to do that. | 2014-01-28T05:40:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20605 |
| Thanks for the reblog! | 2014-01-28T05:39:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/27/acts-of-destruction/#comment-20604 |
| Sometimes, good news is just good news. :-) The tapering of QE was taken as a sign of strength overall, which it should have been. Yellen is coming in soon and we may see some policy changes. I am not worried about Europe because I think it will only effect the large investment banks - and they don't seem to have a lot of influence on the economy. I could be wrong about that, of course, but I do think we will see this year as losses are realized. A big write-down in bad loans is good for the whole system, after all. It's the traditional way of shedding debt in a downturn. |
2014-01-24T17:00:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/24/what-do-you-expect/#comment-20586 |
| I agree, as always, on facebook. But the market seems pretty reasonably priced to me given that there is a turnaround in progress. Corporate profits are still very high and they are starting to be re-invested in growth. It's slow, but it is coming. But yes, facebook shows us that there are bubbles here and there - I simply don't think we can judge the whole market based on those silly things. | 2014-01-24T16:58:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/24/what-do-you-expect/#comment-20585 |
| Thank you for your response, I believe you are correct on all counts. I do worry that Europe may have a "lost generation" if this goes on much longer and there is no work for young people, so this is a particularly bad problem for everyone around the world. Now that the leaders are not dealing with one crisis after another I hope they can tackle it, as they discussed at Davos. Here in the US, you are very correct that our spending on military and the defense of our "empire". We would be very wise to cut that back and improve our social "safety net" while improving our infrastructure. It is not as obvious of a problem as it is in Europe, but it is one that could define this generation far more than is healthy as well. Our states are the place to do most of that work, but they have been strangled in the downturn and cannot act with an appropriate Keynesian response. As the economy improves slightly I hope we can get back to work on these issues - and really cut the Federal government, especially military. |
2014-01-24T16:56:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20584 |
| Yes, they were slow to fully realize the loans - because it totally slays the balance sheet. They almost certainly wrote off what they could over the last few years without hitting a level that slaughtered their profits, but now they have a deadline. Realizing a big hit at once makes 4Q13 look really bad, but it does get it out of the way. I have been looking for information on how much has been written off so far but I have no good estimates. I am assuming there is more to come because of the deadline and because it just seems that the magnitude was way, way higher than what we've seen so far. |
2014-01-23T01:06:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20558 |
| Let's see how 2014 goes before we say that. This might be the year they really start to take the hits. | 2014-01-22T18:43:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20552 |
| That's a bit harsh, but I do think that the leaders don't really care about the people, nor really report to them in any way as it's set up. The austerity programs do show that, at least. | 2014-01-22T18:42:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20551 |
| I don't know the total exposure. It's going to come in the CDSs primarily, and those will be limited to JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, etc. I don't think it will be a big deal, but it's worth watching. If I see a good estimate I'll pass it along. | 2014-01-22T16:04:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/22/exit-the-eurocrisis-slowly/#comment-20546 |
| Policy can help and it can hurt, yes. I can't possibly tease out the effects as we're seeing them now given how strong the market forces appear to be. | 2014-01-22T03:27:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20536 |
| Thanks so much! Yes, there is a possibility in an election year that this might get done. I'm hopeful! | 2014-01-22T03:26:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/06/at-a-minimum/#comment-20535 |
| Yes, this is an important part of his preaching, but it has been lost over the years. I hope we can get it back. 1968 was a huge turning point in so many ways - and one of the most important was the loss of a great leader like Dr. King. | 2014-01-21T22:02:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/20/the-long-road-of-dr-king/#comment-20528 |
| And the Post Office, don't forget them! :-) Yes, it is a strange holiday, but a good one all the same. I do celebrate it with my kids. | 2014-01-20T15:46:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/20/the-long-road-of-dr-king/#comment-20513 |
| That is what I hope for more than anything else. It would make all the difference, yes. | 2014-01-20T15:45:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/20/the-long-road-of-dr-king/#comment-20512 |
| That's pretty broad, so I won't go there myself. But that view is popular with a lot of people who are otherwise liberal these days. Big government rates about as well as Big Business. I think that's a reasonable position overall. | 2014-01-17T06:07:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/15/no-decision-is-a-decision/#comment-20481 |
| That's the JP Morgan way! I think that is a standard operation for a lot of companies, actually. Do your best and just expect that there may be a problem later. I would hope it didn't come to that, however. | 2014-01-17T06:05:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/15/no-decision-is-a-decision/#comment-20480 |
| They may not know. But you are right, the internet point of attack may be a ruse. But it would be one Hell of a story if false information was put out by a company this big just to make the perp think the heat wasn't on. | 2014-01-17T06:04:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/17/a-big-fat-target/#comment-20479 |
| Note: A piece at Forbes takes on the pick-up of this piece at MinnPost: http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/01/15/u-s-unemployment-retirees-are-not-the-labor-exodus-problem/ I like this piece, actually, because it goes to my main point that the decline in labor force participation started in 2000, which is to say when this depression started. Unfortunately, it ignored my main contention that the last 2 years have been different (and thus none of this can be blamed on Obama). But aside from that, we're getting at some discussion of the economy that takes a longer view, realizing that 2000 was the turning point. This is only a good thing. |
2014-01-16T02:00:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20462 |
| BTW, this is a very good article and I do recommend it. The primary difference between their analysis and that done by the Philly Fed is that they looked at the last 4 years exclusively, whereas Philly noted that retirement accounts for the changes in just the last 2 years. Both are consistent with each other - 2010 and 2011 were terrible years by any measure. However, the decline in workforce participation listed continues, meaning that the rate of people staying in school or other reasons is still important, as noted. The turnaround is weak. There is fodder there for Republicans after all! But with 4.1M jobs created in the last two years and about 2M retiring (more or less - we don't know for sure) there are more openings - and the labor participation rate should improve for those under retirement age. But as of today it remains a bad job market for young people even with a small turnaround. |
2014-01-14T21:28:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20458 |
| Thanks! | 2014-01-14T21:03:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20457 |
| First of all, I never claimed to be an oracle, so criticizing me for not being one is pretty silly. Second of all, that is one of the topics I have been harping on for a year now. Young people are opting to stay in school and are NOT finding jobs. There is a discussion of this above with a lot of links. It IS a serious problem and deserves a lot more attention. I'm glad Bloomberg is focusing on it because it's been largely ignored for far too long. Third, given that this IP is in Las Vegas, I'll just assume you are Smithson continuing to stalk me and change names randomly. That's not only rude, it's really creepy. Please stop. |
2014-01-14T20:57:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20456 |
| Predictions are nothing more than a desperate cry for attention - and the way the 'net is today it's a requirement. I won't necessarily say that I'm doing the self-promotion part adequately - hell, I'm sure I'm doing something wrong - but you have to do that to get some kind of gig these days. It's not really my idea. So I'll keep at it, although your suggestion is still a good one. The most likely way it would fail is any kind of emergency caused by another financial meltdown. While the system isn't as fragile as it was in 2008 on paper, JP Morgan is probably has a lot more risk than we know. So that would be the top cause for concern, for sure. It also appears that budget battles are bad for the economy, so a really big, long shutdown could kill things off. But as for things getting better - they are. We had a good holiday retail season - except it didn't register in the old-line retail and instead went to smaller and online-only outlets. It's all changing very rapid, everything. And it's really hard to take advantage of what improvements we have. So ... what do we have ... all this is the way it is because of requirements of the internet. So perhaps you should compare me to Hitler if you wanna be all internetty about things. I am a dog owner, so I have that in common with the guy. And floppy straight hair that hangs down funny. I'm soooo much like Hitler. :-) |
2014-01-13T23:55:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20436 |
| I'll gladly drop the Mr. Sunshine handle for a moment. We are in a Depression. The last 5 years have been horrible for everyone, and many people have been in pain for a decade or more. And I don't expect that we'll really get out of it for at least 3 more years. But - there is some progress. If you don't want to call that enough, that's fine. You don't really know that you've turned the corner until you can look back and see where it started to go right, but I think that 2013 will be that year. It's not much, but it's a start. What I hate more than just lying about the situation is the perpetuation of the whole framework that we have for understanding the situation. That is, people still talk about this as if it is a conventional postwar recession and everything should go somewhat like all the other recessions. That's ludicrous. It's a Depression and it requires different action. The wave of retirement is a double-edged sword, creating opportunities for young people while it increases demands on social services. We have to enter this period ahead with our eyes wide open. But we're not. We're fed lies that reinforce an utterly wrong way to look at the challenges we have. That leaves aside the ridiculous "blame game" where everyone wants to pin this on some leader past or present, as if policy made this world just the way it is. I've done some of that, too, and it ultimately made no sense at all. The origin of this lie is a deep need to blame Obama, which is totally ridiculous. And you can't blame GW Bush or Reagan, either. Want a song lyric? Try Margaritaville - "Some people claim that there's a woman to blame, but I know - it's nobody's fault." |
2014-01-13T22:01:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20433 |
| It does seem to be a deliberate attempt to "talk down" the economy for political reasons, yes. I can never be sure of motivation so I don't like to go there, but there is a consistent theme. And it's sick. | 2014-01-13T21:54:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20432 |
| Thank you! Will check out your blog shortly. | 2014-01-13T21:53:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20431 |
| Perhaps it is overstated, but I think there is a deliberate campaign here that is leading people to a wrong conclusion. To me, that's a lie - even if it isn't explicit. Certainly, by the time it's repeated in blogs and so on it often becomes an outright lie, and that appears to be by design. I could not find one example of the outright lie in the mainstream media, no. There is a lot of talk about reduced confidence, which is utter hooey, IMHO. People are retiring ... it's pretty obvious. And in the last two years that's been the story. They are leaving behind job openings that will be filled by young people. Mazeltov! |
2014-01-13T03:49:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20422 |
| Thanks. I didn't want to have to be explicit, but the lie seems to be accelerating - despite a few good articles explaining it. The problem is that the articles so far do not account for the first part of the decline, largely because it requires an understanding of the downturn since 2000. | 2014-01-13T02:51:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/13/a-persistent-lie/#comment-20420 |
| There is still a chance that personal liability is being investigated. But for now, no one except Madoff has gone to jail over the scams run out of Morgan. It's sick. I rarely use the term "evil", but it does seem to fin JPM pretty well. |
2014-01-10T16:44:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/10/jobs-unfrozen/#comment-20405 |
| This came from ADP, a private payroll processing firm. Their number has always been more accurate in the past, which is to say less noisy from one month to the next. I do not understand this HUGE discrepancy and I'm looking into possibilities. |
2014-01-10T16:43:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/10/jobs-unfrozen/#comment-20404 |
| Yes, it's all about making a buck. Speaking of that, you noticed I'm going through some "rebranding". I hope to make a few more bucks off of this, yes. I'd love to have a sponsor or two. Know anyone? :-) | 2014-01-09T16:00:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/08/answers-or-questions/#comment-20394 |
| I like football, so you won't get a complaint from me. :-) But yes, we are still deep in diversion all the time. I'm working on doing my part to make the important, real stuff more entertaining. It's hard ... | 2014-01-09T15:59:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/08/answers-or-questions/#comment-20393 |
| I appear to have survived the worst of it, thank you! Hope you are doing well, too! | 2014-01-09T15:58:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/08/answers-or-questions/#comment-20392 |
| I agree with that assessment. Self-promotion is the key in the world we live in. The various seminars and so on do not generally recruit speakers - they call for applications. That is the first mistake, IMHO. | 2014-01-09T15:57:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/08/answers-or-questions/#comment-20391 |
| I think it's working again. Don't know what happened, to be honest. But it is damned cold here! You're right, it's a tax on employment. And as such it probably does have to affect employment. But as taxes go it's pretty small and only affects a small number of employees, so the net cost is really not that large except in some service industries. And in many cases it's hard to hire fewer people because there is work that simply has to be done. So I think this is a rare tax on employment that doesn't have too many negative effects. However, it also doesn't fix everything. It's not enough by itself, as I noted. Also, I do agree that a jump this large at once is not going to necessarily scale from data on smaller increases. There is a lot more that has to be done - but this would be a start. And the possibility that it might actually get through the US House is at least interesting. |
2014-01-06T17:46:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/06/at-a-minimum/#comment-20377 |
| You are right, it seems strange to have a "cap" on the number of jobs the economy can support - and to have that cap fixed over many generations. It seems to be true, but I can't answer why it would be. I will think about this some more. I am managing and staying warm - hope you are, too! Keeping a car battery inside was a pretty good move on my part, it turns out. :-) |
2014-01-06T14:47:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20375 |
| Let's call it just a start, then. I don't see anything else on the plate for the time being, so if I was in congress I'd support it. | 2014-01-06T02:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/06/at-a-minimum/#comment-20373 |
| First of all, Forbes is changing - they are not the magazine they used to be. They are covering some very progressive issues and do support tackling income inequality. Now, as to living on $10 an hour - that is what's in front of us right now. I don't think that anything more than that will come up. As I pointed out, it only gets 10% of the poor out of poverty, which is hardly a big win. For the rest of it, including Glass-Steagall, I am totally with you on that. The Volcker Rule was a half-step that is now the law, again a half-measure. But it's not enough, no. We need a LOT more reform and a LOT more effort towards creating the economy that we can all live with. But I don't expect much from this congress at all. |
2014-01-06T02:30:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/06/at-a-minimum/#comment-20372 |
| A good point. There has been essentially no one looking out for working people on a rather consistent basis. That does include the Democrats, yes. I expect that to change, however. | 2014-01-06T01:02:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20368 |
| She'll have to introduce herself, then. | 2014-01-06T01:01:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20367 |
| You are right, that was bad wording on my part. I meant that the wealthy have probably never thought about the lives and welfare of working people, or the dangers of inequality. They certainly have thought a lot about workers as nothing more than a cost on a ledger and have developed prejudices against the tools that workers have to improve their own livelihood This mistake is bad enough that I will think about how I can easily change it with strikethrough. |
2014-01-03T17:46:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/03/inequality-a-feature-of-the-system/#comment-20357 |
| Well, whoever you are, given the number of names you post comments under (Smithson would make the most sense, given the Vegas IP) I can tell you that I don't bother with much of teevee and, if you ask people in their 20s they probably can't name the hosts of those shows either. Teevee is a dead industry, mostly. So there. I pick on CNN in part because i have watched a little of it (as any old person would) and what I've seen for analysis is frustratingly dumb. Not as dumb as a lot of other channels, from what I can see, but still rather dumb. It seems that the values of internet chatrooms have replaced journalism generally. Newspapers, which are really dying, are not as bad. They could use me, I think, but not as much. |
2014-01-02T21:00:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/01/heat-of-time-cold-of-midnight/#comment-20343 |
| Thanks! | 2014-01-02T01:00:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2014/01/01/heat-of-time-cold-of-midnight/#comment-20339 |
| Thank you! Although, I have my sights set on CNN more than the print publications. :-) | 2013-12-31T16:15:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/30/promises-to-keep/#comment-20326 |
| Thanks so much! | 2013-12-31T04:26:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/30/promises-to-keep/#comment-20319 |
| Thank you, and yes, an advanced degree would be helpful. But I've never been sure about what field I wanted such a degree to be in. Economics is obviously a calling, but there's so little work in that. A think tank would be heavenly, and I am working on a few locally. It may come together yet. The world does need people who can lead a discussion that will get us all through the woods together. I know that's my strength, but as you said a paying gig in media is very rare - and goes to people who are more forceful than contemplative. Our world favors declarations rather than questions, but there are a lot of questions that aren't being asked. |
2013-12-30T14:48:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/30/promises-to-keep/#comment-20317 |
| There is no excuse for terminating unemployment benefits. But there are jobs, it's just slow in coming. We need a new economy to replace the one that failed. You want to be a part of it? I'm sure you do have something to add. Let's make this next one a more equitable one that values workers. But it is going to be slow in coming, yes. We're not starting from scratch ... but we are. | 2013-12-28T21:02:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/#comment-20305 |
| I've decided I'm OK with being called that. Someone has to be optimistic! | 2013-12-28T00:04:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/#comment-20298 |
| Unemployment benefits were a lifeline to many people, yes, and when they run out there will be a big problem. What it means to the overall economy is harder to say, so I'm holding out on that. But it's a big deal to those who had to rely on it. And yes, perhaps it was a bit much to crow about 2M jobs when we needed more like 10M or more. |
2013-12-27T01:26:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/#comment-20291 |
| Thanks! | 2013-12-27T01:25:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/27/2013-a-good-year/#comment-20290 |
| Thank you. The world is a much better place when we all speak from our hearts and do our best to inspire. And, of course, take some time to simply stop. | 2013-12-25T15:01:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/25/christmas-comes-when-we-stop/#comment-20266 |
| Amen. A great man who continues to inspire me. | 2013-12-25T00:18:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/02/pope-francis-teaches-another-way/#comment-20257 |
| :-) Merry Christmas, Anna! |
2013-12-25T00:18:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/25/christmas-comes-when-we-stop/#comment-20256 |
| Ah, yes, Frank. A more elegant time. | 2013-12-24T15:49:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/23/one-foot-in-front-of-the-other/#comment-20249 |
| Thank you! It's covered in the About page, but I don't mind repeating it here. In Don Quixote Sancho Panza is a dutiful servant who looks after the Don, hoping he'll regain the sanity he lost reading too many romance novels. When it's all over, Sancho is rewarded for his loyal service with a kingdom of his own - Barataria. It means "cheap lands" or the swamp. I'm convinced that the world is full of Don Quixotes who have lost their minds - not from romance, but from believing their own BS. I am Sancho Panza, dutifully standing by and waiting for sanity to return. All I ask is for my own swamp, my own Barataria, to play and paddle in. Also, I grew up in near the Florida Everglades and dearly love swamps. A childhood hero of mine was the "Gentleman Pirate" Jean Lafite, who called the swamps of Louisiana where he lived Barataria - a name that has stuck to this day. So I really am a creature of the murky swamps. To a genuine romantic the oppressive heat and smell is what life is made of! | 2013-12-24T01:26:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/how-you-can-help/#comment-20237 |
| People still don't believe me, though. :-) | 2013-12-23T22:31:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/23/one-foot-in-front-of-the-other/#comment-20233 |
| You're right, I should have mentioned the Fed tapering - it's huge news. And the stock market rose on it, too, which surprised me. Do I underestimate the possibility of another big crash? Perhaps, but I don't see it as very likely. If JPMorgan died tomorrow I don't think it would be a big deal other than the FDIC needing to take over Chase - which probably would take time and cause a lot of downtime. But even that would be a non-event in the end after maybe a week. The rest of their operations? I just don't think it's based in reality to start with and almost all of the money lost would come from the very rich, not so much from 401(k) accounts and pensions. |
2013-12-23T02:03:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/23/one-foot-in-front-of-the-other/#comment-20225 |
| Thanks. I think that there is actual news to report now that things are improving. In 2012 it was hard to say much since it seemed to just be the same thing every day. Also I think people crave this stuff, there's been too much fluff and garbage for too long. But I agree, more fundamental discussion has been making its way into the mainstream media. Competition? I hope one of these outlets will see the trends and hire me! :-) |
2013-12-23T02:01:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/23/one-foot-in-front-of-the-other/#comment-20224 |
| Really, I don't know who she is. Apparently I'm supposed to, buy that doesn't help anything. |
2013-12-23T00:44:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/20/confidence/#comment-20221 |
| No, I don't know who that is, sorry. Ha! | 2013-12-21T02:10:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/20/confidence/#comment-20209 |
| Excellent news! The National Retail Federation says that we are on track for the high end of holiday retail growth, +3.9%, so confidence has to be up. That's my thinking overall - but there really aren't any numbers to back it. These indices are a bit fudgy, I think. | 2013-12-20T22:44:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/20/confidence/#comment-20205 |
| It is hard to read, I should dig up one of just the consumer confidence numbers. The Michigan one is more public and I know is in the St Louis FRED database. It's been up just a tiny bit over the last year, I assure you. | 2013-12-20T22:43:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/20/confidence/#comment-20204 |
| Yes, it is the real "Reason for the Season". :-) | 2013-12-19T23:46:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/18/solstice-is-here/#comment-20195 |
| That's a very disrespectful thing to say because it minimizes violence, so responding forcefully is definitely called for. But yes, it's a bigger problem when the person who says it has power. So I'd say that empathy for power is meaningless and there is no reason why you can't go after that and make it clear that you are appalled by the statement. But keep in mind that many, many people agree with you. In Indiana's 2012 election 54% went for Romney and 50% went for Republican Mike Pence for Governor. But Mourdock, running for Senate, said something horrible about rape and lost with only 44% of the vote. That means that about 1 in 5 Republican voters said "No!" to that crap. That's what we have to keep our eyes on to purge positions of power of people like that. You're not alone in your horror - and speaking out respectfully and pointedly will win friends when it's that far over the line. There is still a basic decency in the world. Respect will generally get you respect back, even in disagreement. And if you don't get it, I say you have to continue to take the high road - while still insisting on better the whole time. But there is still room for empathy on issues that don't involve an endorsement of violence, I say. |
2013-12-16T03:40:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/16/empathy/#comment-20179 |
| More comments would be nice. I don't know why I have so few, frankly. A lot of people read and comment elsewhere, including facebook. Dunno | 2013-12-13T22:47:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/13/three-million-reads-one-purpose/#comment-20152 |
| "Today" is Friday - which starts at 6PM CST since Barataria is on UTC/GMT. :-) It should happen. | 2013-12-13T02:21:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/13/three-million-reads-one-purpose/#comment-20148 |
| Wait for the backlash ... :-) | 2013-12-12T04:23:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/11/romanticism-reborn/#comment-20129 |
| Outside of the NSA and so on, I think the world is very much moving away from authoritarianism as the wealth is spread around to developing nations. It will create an era of new hope as it sinks in. This is the flip side of greater wealth around the world - people with money demand more freedom. | 2013-12-12T02:22:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/11/romanticism-reborn/#comment-20123 |
| Thanks for the reblog! | 2013-12-10T05:33:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/09/new-rules-new-game/#comment-20087 |
| I agree, we should have had at least something like this in place all along. I wish we could bring back Glass-Steagall, which is full corporate separation, but I'm willing to see how this goes. It may work out. | 2013-12-09T20:46:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/09/new-rules-new-game/#comment-20070 |
| I am sure you are right. We have to see how it goes. | 2013-12-09T18:22:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/09/new-rules-new-game/#comment-20064 |
| It's still a tough corner, but we can see around it. It helps. Ukraine is at a crossroads, and I do think things will work for them. As you said, they have seen worse and they are tough. Once people see a brighter future together they can't be stopped! |
2013-12-08T20:48:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/06/a-good-week/#comment-20050 |
| Thanks! It's a matter of what next year might bring at this point. That is very unclear given the end of the Fed's QE and the next phase of budget nonsense. At some point we do need real leadership to get to the next level, and I don't see where it will come from. I have a lot of faith in Janet Yellen but the Fed can only do so much. | 2013-12-07T18:13:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/06/a-good-week/#comment-20048 |
| Yes, there was a big spike last year. It's hard to explain that, and it stands out as an anomaly. The trend this year has been positive and that is why job growth is accelerating now - and that's what counts to me. Small businesses do usually account for the largest share of growth, but it's been oversized through the last two years. Medium sized companies seem especially squeezed, which I honestly don't understand. |
2013-12-07T18:11:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/06/a-good-week/#comment-20047 |
| I haven't heard much about the 13 December deadline, but Rep Ryan and Sen Murphy are pretty capable. it's all about what they can sell to their own people. I do think something can happen, but this is a sequestration deadline and it's not as important as the looming need for a continuing resolution in January. | 2013-12-07T18:09:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/06/a-good-week/#comment-20046 |
| I will take that challenge. :-) This is a summary of a lot of things we've talked about over the last 6+ years, and as usual the purpose is to move it up to a new level. Some kind of real political platform is called for, yes. I think this is the kind of issue that Democrats could win with. | 2013-12-04T22:36:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/04/the-economy-of-people/#comment-20028 |
| Thanks. This is not about the church, not at all. | 2013-12-04T05:04:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/04/the-economy-of-people/#comment-20026 |
| They seem pretty nice so far. :-) | 2013-12-04T05:03:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/04/the-economy-of-people/#comment-20025 |
| That is a good way to look at it! Thanks. A great addition, as always! | 2013-12-02T03:16:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/02/pope-francis-teaches-another-way/#comment-20007 |
| It sure has, and that's why I wanted to add some context to it. If you read just a few excerpts from his work and interpret them through a conventional perspective the point is utterly missed. That's a terrible shame, IMHO. | 2013-12-02T02:51:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/12/02/pope-francis-teaches-another-way/#comment-20005 |
| If he has some magic left, he'll be allrigtht. :-) | 2013-11-30T16:05:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/29/the-fall-of-santa/#comment-19999 |
| Pretty much, yes. | 2013-11-29T04:25:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/29/the-fall-of-santa/#comment-19995 |
| I don' t know why. I went over the original proclamations and the timing became obvious to me. It's a great story, indeed. | 2013-11-27T21:14:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/27/thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-19990 |
| Don't thank God for me, he lets these things go pretty much these days. :-) | 2013-11-27T21:13:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/27/thanksgiving-deliverence/#comment-19989 |
| That's the gist of everything I've read on it. The "loss leaders" suck people in to get them buying and that's about it. Some stores like Kmart aren't going to worry about the bottom line as much as the top line, as they have to impress Wall Street, but ... it's all crazy stuff. | 2013-11-26T15:14:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19980 |
| Ha! I'm trying to be more objective here. In the past I've been really down on Black Friday as something I ... well, to be honest, I didn't understand at all. Buying stuff as entertainment? But then some people said that it's a family venture right after Thanksgiving and I thought, "Anything a family does together is at least somewhat OK to me." As long as it leaves the holiday intact and doesn't start until the next day, who really cares? But ... well, there's an objective argument against Black Friday, and this year I presented it. Most shoppers don't realize "big savings" because the point is to manipulate emotions. And stores only do that because of an antiquated "rule of thumb" enforced by Wall Street / Media / et cetera. So that's where I am now. It really is something that has gotten totally out of hand - and now faces a backlash. Things are changing. And if it was up to me no one would buy a lot of stuff they don't need.. |
2013-11-25T23:36:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19976 |
| That doesn't sound like a compliment ... :-) Hey, people need jobs, and people need things to live. I can't be against retail in general because there is a place for it. The difficulty comes in how it is organized. Online sales really level the playing field between big box and small retailers (even artists making their own stuff to sell on Etsy!). Good holiday sales are a good thing, or at least can be. Black Friday? Feh. |
2013-11-25T16:24:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19973 |
| Yes, I think I will do more on that later. I have in the past, not sure how I want to update it. | 2013-11-25T04:13:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19971 |
| Thank you. And yes, nothing unless you need it - well, excepting a few presents here and there, but the more unique and artistic the more special they are, right? It is the psychology of this that bothers me, although I do cheer for retail and a general recovery. There's a balance in here that I think we are currently a long way away from. |
2013-11-25T01:51:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19969 |
| Now that's not very nice. Or is it? I can never tell. :-) The inefficiencies and nonsense of a world that automatically jumps at the commands of a distant Wall Street is not really that different from a centrally planned economy that has to respond to a distant political capitol. That system must be what we break down as we restructure. Fortunately, it is falling apart. You may not like the dispassionate way I report it, but the message doesn't have to go out to the people who already understand this. |
2013-11-25T01:42:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/25/black-friday-psychology/#comment-19968 |
| Yes, that is very true. I do think that this will slow down some as the population ages. Retirees just have less money to spend on junk, and they probably will not be interested in big crowds. | 2013-11-24T23:14:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/22/one-week-to-go/#comment-19962 |
| Write it down and we'll see. We have about a month to find the answer - it's better than my predictions for 2013 that are taking the whole year to play out! | 2013-11-24T23:13:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/22/one-week-to-go/#comment-19961 |
| I'm not trying to be optimistic, but I think that the news has been unreasonably negative lately. I also think it may be due to disinformation by conservatives who do seem to want to make Obama look bad at any cost, but I can't prove that. At any rate, getting out of the Depression is a long and difficult journey. People don't become optimistic overnight. Note that my prediction was that we would "exceed expectations" - I don't yet know if this will be a year with a record gain or not. And you are right that retailers are trying way, way too hard. That is a very bad sign - and a good counter to my optimism! But we'll see. |
2013-11-24T23:12:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/22/one-week-to-go/#comment-19960 |
| That could happen, yes, but banks are much less fragile than they were in 2008. I do worry about JP Morgan hitting the wall in the near future, given the cavalier way they operate. But the worst is clearly behind us, and I do think that anything like this would be an isolate incident - not a systemic problem. It is true that just about anything can happen in this climate, however. |
2013-11-21T16:05:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19945 |
| I think Monroe and Miller weren't married all that long. But if Kate Upton is really available then please introduce us. Thanks. :-) | 2013-11-21T01:59:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19943 |
| That is true - to be prophetic, make a lot of predictions, and only talk about the ones that came true. Also be as vague as possible (the Nostradamus method). I'm doing this like I did my predictions for 2013 - a regular check-in on progress. I thought I should do this now so that I can see where I'm at in early 2014 - especially after the holiday season. As for referring to my own stuff - I thought about a few outside links for this one, but I'm building arguments from smaller works. The outside justification is in the articles I reference. This is a summary - a statement of the only reasonable conclusion if you look at my previous work. I think it's OK to only ref your own work for a piece like this (as long as you only do it once in a while!). :-) I don't know Kate Upton ... should I? |
2013-11-20T20:40:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19941 |
| Thanks! I do think this is the situation we're in. Whether or not some of the big changes and news happen before that is another question, but I don't expect a lot to change in the next 3 years. There may be some of it, however, that comes sooner than 2017. | 2013-11-20T15:03:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19939 |
| By all means, please do! I'll stake whatever reputation I have on this. This is not a casual prediction - I am very sure of it. | 2013-11-20T03:44:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/20/the-year-everything-changes/#comment-19936 |
| Yes, there is no real "shock" in this. But it's still hard on retirees, and we are about to have a lot more of 'em. | 2013-11-20T03:44:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/18/point-of-no-return/#comment-19935 |
| I think I have to agree with that. It does seem that with no good return on the horizon it's not something that anyone can count on. With low inflation the real return is still decent, but it's not much. Compound interest is just not a reality today. | 2013-11-19T17:19:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/18/point-of-no-return/#comment-19918 |
| If they do that, it will be towards the end of the year and only a quarter point. But it is possible, yes. I stand by my prediction of a "normal" Fed Funds Rate in the 2%+ range in 2017 or so - unless inflation does suddenly heat up. |
2013-11-18T03:01:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/18/point-of-no-return/#comment-19914 |
| OK, I'll accept that. Glad you used the word "amnesty" for people who are here. | 2013-11-15T18:28:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/#comment-19903 |
| Probably. :-) | 2013-11-15T18:27:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/#comment-19902 |
| We've talked about the participation rate here, and it is going down because the Baby Boomers are hitting retirement. it will continue to go down over the next decade as the retirements accelerate. Keep in mind that today's 63.4% participation rate is considerably higher than where it was from 1968 and before, which was always below 60%. We are returning to an economy more like that period in many ways. Like balancing the Federal budget, this is not something I am advocating immediately. But it will be necessary inside of the next decade, I can promise you. But I do agree with all of you that developing skills in our own workforce should be the top priority no matter what - jobs for Americans first. But watch as this starts to change after 2017. My point remains that managing this is going to be the hard part. But wages will rise when the wave of retirement hits and labor becomes scarce. Once we get through that wave in the early part of the business cycle there will definitely be a call for more foreign-born workers. |
2013-11-15T15:34:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/#comment-19898 |
| I am not talking about this economy, I'm talking about the next one. There will be a shortage of workers in the next decade because of retirement. More on the next comment. | 2013-11-15T15:25:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/15/the-immigration-solution/#comment-19897 |
| I have come to really love Matt Smith's portrayal. Jon Pertwee was my favorite before, but Matt has passed him in my esteem - truly inspired and kinetic performances every time. How about companions, Rose? I was a Sara Jane Smith fan forever (goes with Pertwee) but I came to love Martha for a lot of reasons. Right now, I think Rory has to be my fave. Not only did he wait 2,000 years for his love he is the one companion who really took on the Doctor. In the Vampires of Venice episode he says, "You know what it's dangerous about you? It's not that you make people take risks, it's that you make them want to impress you. You make it so they don't want to let you down. You have no idea how dangerous you make people to themselves when you're around." Brilliant! |
2013-11-13T20:30:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/13/day-of-the-doctor/#comment-19878 |
| I don't know that they talk any faster than any other British show, but I think that Doctor Who is a show not crafted in any way for its American audience - so it doesn't try to slow it down or be careful with accents. 1.6M people is about how many watch Fox News, so you can estimate the importance from there. :-) I don't know how many people watch it around the world, but this episode will certainly be over 100M. The UK viewership is expected to be over 30M, or half the nation! :-) There will be similar results in Australia. |
2013-11-13T15:36:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/13/day-of-the-doctor/#comment-19876 |
| I will do the same. :-) I feel like I've been waiting for years for this, too. It's funny. | 2013-11-13T15:32:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/13/day-of-the-doctor/#comment-19875 |
| You aren't stalking me as effectively as you think. Both are teenagers. And no, I'm out of the baby biz. | 2013-11-12T04:03:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/11/jobs-debate-heats-up/#comment-19867 |
| That's not the debate, really, it's really over the "discouraged workers" and how they are being counted. There is also an ongoing debate about austerity, which is whether it's best to balance the budget now (which I don't support, even as I do support moving towards balance for 2017 and beyond). We should have had an infrastructure and jobs program in place from 2008 on, but didn't - and now we are feeling the effects of lost productivity on the order of 7% of our economy lost. It is hard to make that up. I didn't get into unemployment rates, but U6 (the broadest measure) crept up from 13.1% to 13.2% - probably not a significant change, but worth keeping our eyes on. |
2013-11-11T19:36:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/11/jobs-debate-heats-up/#comment-19863 |
| That is entirely possible. But they revised August and September up 60k, which is really quite a lot. | 2013-11-11T19:32:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/11/jobs-debate-heats-up/#comment-19862 |
| I did my part. :-) | 2013-11-11T19:32:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/11/jobs-debate-heats-up/#comment-19861 |
| I do think that is what this is about, yes. The lesson here, I think, can be for (drumroll) ... the Tea Party! People on the Left / Progressive side of politics are just as frustrated as they are. If people just put down the partisan labels I think we could have real progress against the big money people who have set up a system of socialized risk and regressive tax rates. But no, those labels are useful for dividing people. It's very sad. |
2013-11-09T20:36:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/#comment-19848 |
| We will have to say. I didn't write too much on the progressive politics because they will be under a lot of pressure. We won't know until the first big issue comes up requiring a lot of money. So I do partially agree with you here. Ha! :-) | 2013-11-09T20:33:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/#comment-19847 |
| The city has ALWAYS, from the beginning, been run by the corporate interests. They've had mayors with names like Pillsbury, etc. Even Hubert Humphrey was regularly accused of being a tool by the more progressive Farmer-Labor Party. This is a big change. | 2013-11-09T20:32:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/#comment-19846 |
| Thank you! Means a lot from you! | 2013-11-09T20:31:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/25/black-friday/#comment-19845 |
| Now that it's official, it's worth pointing out that outgoing Mayor RT Rybak is 57 years old (Boomer) and Mayor-Elect Betsy Hodges is 44 (GenX) for a similar drop of 13 years. | 2013-11-08T05:38:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/08/minneapolis-new-generation/#comment-19838 |
| Are you saying I'm no fun at parties? Well, ... you're probably right. :-) I'll try to do something more fun. It's been a tough month here, I'm getting through it. | 2013-11-07T20:57:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19837 |
| Yes, to all of it. But we can buy tubular socks, those are great. :-) Won't take any wooden Escudos, Reals, or Yuan, you bet. :-) Thanks! |
2013-11-07T20:56:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19836 |
| That's what I hope it comes down to. You might like the $$$, but you have to report to voters. Elections are a good thing. | 2013-11-07T20:55:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19835 |
| Amen! Besides, do we really need to keep shopping all the time? | 2013-11-07T20:54:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19834 |
| Like them? I hardly know who they are. :-) | 2013-11-06T18:41:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/06/good-evil-puzzling-stupid/#comment-19828 |
| You know why. Besides, we have a system that could accommodate most of that without a revolution. | 2013-11-05T22:13:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19817 |
| Yes, you and Anna have a good point here. This was anticipated, but it was shouted down by the "all growth is good" line. Some growth, apparently, is just enslavement. | 2013-11-05T15:03:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19815 |
| I have been digging into Kaldor's work to try to find how he came to the conclusion that the share of income that went to labor was a constant - I want to see how far back he went with it. People were indeed slaves as a whole until some level of industrialization came along. The struggle for common people to get their share does indeed go back to the very begining of this nation, I agree, and it's very much worth looking at. It goes along with my li'l Pa Ingalls analogy from a while back. Resiliency was a hallmark of people like that - but it isn't today. This is one of those things where I think the Tea Party does have a point, if it is a bit muddled by contemporary politics of the moment. |
2013-11-05T15:02:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19814 |
| YES! It has gone down pretty much as union leaders said it would, I have to admit. It's hard to be against free trade for the long haul, but right now we have a serious problem that's only getting worse. I don't have a good answer right now, no. That bugs me. | 2013-11-04T15:32:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19809 |
| Bingo! It is always the assumptions that you have to watch out for. And they are what are failing us here. Among economists there is a soft right-wing slant towards the "growth is always good" no matter who sees it first largely because of these "facts" and what flows naturally from them. How badly they are failing now is critical and something we need to understand in depth if the economists are going to make a case that they have a handle on this situation. | 2013-11-04T01:40:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/04/the-facts-are-failing/#comment-19804 |
| Treasury. My sig would be on all the money. :-) Thank you! | 2013-11-02T02:09:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/01/fed-funds-future-foggy-fudgy/#comment-19793 |
| Yes, that is the point of all this. And I do think they will start tapering now that the worst of the government antics are over (for a while). | 2013-11-01T19:21:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/01/fed-funds-future-foggy-fudgy/#comment-19788 |
| It's not known if they use a formula like this, but if they do it is probably the more complex Taylor Rule with some data we don't really have. Things are kept pretty secret. What counts is that this simple Mankiw Rule is very close to what has happened historically. Why it's not predicting what they are doing now is a matter of policy. | 2013-11-01T19:20:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/01/fed-funds-future-foggy-fudgy/#comment-19787 |
| Footnote: The Taylor/Mankiw Rule turning negative is an excellent definition of a "Depression" versus an ordinary "Recession", IMHO. It's worth noting, however, that despite my insistence that the Managed Depression really started in 2001, this proposed definition didn't kick in until 2009. But ... c'mon, it's gotta count in here somewhere! | 2013-11-01T01:48:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/11/01/fed-funds-future-foggy-fudgy/#comment-19781 |
| Haha! Actually, a Republican President and a Democratic Congress would be pretty interesting about now. It seemed to work pretty well in the 1980s :-) | 2013-10-31T15:44:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/30/corporate-profits-a-bad-thing/#comment-19771 |
| Sequester was part of it, and not the largest part. The truth is that the economy is recovering and the deficit has, so far, been fixing itself. Sequester cuts along with very real tax hikes in 2013 closed the gap even further. I only hope we can be more intelligent about it in the future. And I do think that corporate tax reform with an eye towards getting tax receipts up just to the postwar average is a very easy way to raise most of what we need to close the gap without serious "austerity" effects. Sometime around 2017-2020 a balanced budget will be very important, so we can move to close the last 4% of GDP over 4 years, IMHO. Or, we can make deep cuts in the military, tax corporations a bit more, and spend some on infrastructure now - which is what I prefer. No matter what, I think reform is the real answer. |
2013-10-31T05:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/30/corporate-profits-a-bad-thing/#comment-19768 |
| Hey, you followed the link! :-) Yes, raising corporate taxes to the average level they have been since WWII would just about eliminate the deficit today. I haven't run the numbers in a while, but a year ago that raised $300B and it would be more with profits up. Against a deficit of about $465 it might also take a transaction tax of 0.2% on all stock trades (about $200B) to do it all the way, but it's a good idea all around. Thanks! | 2013-10-30T03:50:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/30/corporate-profits-a-bad-thing/#comment-19762 |
| I'll take that as a bet. :-) | 2013-10-30T02:04:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/30/corporate-profits-a-bad-thing/#comment-19760 |
| I believe that all science and technology starts with observation. You see how things work and go on from there. To me, it's the one thing they have in common. They diverge where you ask either "Why?" or "What can be done with this?" Perhaps the latter is more about invention than technology, but I think the principle is similar. Your examples also start with observation! Keeping your eyes open is the most important thing, IMHO. A curious mind can do just about anything, I say. At least, that's what I teach my kids. :-) |
2013-10-29T02:44:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/28/science-technology/#comment-19748 |
| It's hard to say exactly what our future is. We can expect the rest of the world to be right on top of us, sure, and we can't expect to rule every category. But we have areas we do very well in, especially medical tech. | 2013-10-28T18:26:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/28/science-technology/#comment-19746 |
| Everyone has their faves. :-) It all adds up quickly. The only expenditure I really can't justify is how much we spend on Defense - at $700B or so it's a huge number, way out of line. But I still would never say it should be zero. | 2013-10-28T15:00:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19744 |
| It is very hard to pull out all the effects at once, but the 19th century was indeed the time of tremendous upheaval. People starting living in cities far more than the countryside in Europe and the US. This was consolidated and expanded to the rest of the world in the 20th century. But it takes time for scientific advances to become technology, sometimes centuries. And to make them into standards enjoyed worldwide, well .... very long. |
2013-10-28T14:58:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/28/science-technology/#comment-19743 |
| First of all, the need for stimulus is diminishing as the economy picks up on its own. I believe that by 2017 there will be little need for a stimulus. I am in favor of "tapering" by both the Fed and the US government at this time. However, there is also a big difference between balancing the budget with cuts and with tax increases at this point. I do think that cuts in Defense are very much called for, but the rest of the budget can and should be balanced with a restructured tax system - primarily with corporate taxes. I do think that keeping bond rates low is a priority, and the best way to do that is to not keep asking for more money. That's the problem we're in. Yes, I would still support a lot of spending on infrastructure - but I think it should be paid for by tax increases. And if it takes a lot of pork to get a budget passed so be it - the poorest states right now are in the South and have elected a lot of the Republican leadership (oddly enough). Yes, let's get them some jobs and repair the infrastructure - but we can pay for it with corporate taxes and not compete in the bond market. Does this make sense? |
2013-10-28T14:56:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19742 |
| I am generally in favor of higher taxes to meet balance the budget, yes, as I don't want austerity. However, cutting the military. | 2013-10-27T23:09:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19726 |
| Yes, you are right. China and Japan combined are $2.4T, I grabbed that from another article without reading carefully. My mistake. | 2013-10-26T18:55:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/16/appalling-behavior/#comment-19723 |
| Yes, it makes little sense to me. The "continuing resolution" is really more or less how they do everything - it all continues unless someone pulls the funding. | 2013-10-25T21:03:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19719 |
| Democratic Congress in 2014? :-) | 2013-10-25T21:03:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19718 |
| Yes, I have a feeling it's what he'd be remembered for. | 2013-10-25T21:02:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19717 |
| You know, you're right - people need to know that the fighting did produce something of value. I've been caught up in the recent fight, which was rather pointless, and that's not fair. Most of what happened was sequestration - a dumb way to cut, but it happened. No one is going after the military, no. The Dems seem to be pretty shy about it, probably because they don't want to look "soft". It's an old problem. But there is a lot that can be cut. One old piece i forgot to include in this piece was the solid $500B per year in corporate and stock trade taxes I think we could realize. I would hope that the corporate tax increases came primarily from reform and simplification. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/11/26/taxing-solutions/ I think that is a good way to go for tax increases that should make up at least half of the $642B gap we have to close. I could see $320B in corporate and personal tax increases without a lot of real pain and about as much in spending cuts, about $200B of that coming from the military - starting with closing bases in Europe (estimated to be about $80B a year!). In 2 years we could have a balanced budget if we really want to, it's not that hard. |
2013-10-25T14:38:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/25/fix-the-debt/#comment-19713 |
| It is possible. Financial reporters are pretty biased in favor of anything that makes the stock market more interesting (ie, more lucrative). I will think about this. There is a lot more room for opinion in financial reporting - if anything, it is encouraged in many places. | 2013-10-24T12:00:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19702 |
| No problem, you asked for something I have been thinking about doing lately ... I really want to put together a short eBook on this stuff so that it's in a logical order (and I can make a few bucks). :-) | 2013-10-24T11:57:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19701 |
| I'll give that an "Amen". I would like to do something like that again, yes. | 2013-10-23T21:31:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19698 |
| This is what I got for you in a short time: Ford went through a restructuring to be a more global company and streamline its supply chain: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB124199912671905001 Gap responded to weak sales by moving both online and more global at the same time: http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2012/10/16/gap-undergoes-major-restructuring.html?page=all Kodak hopes to emerge from BK as a research and printing company, which I really don't get, but whatever: http://www.semissourian.com/story/2001667.html Finally, this thing from Deloitte on their services to help restructuring shows what a trend it is: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_us/us/6bdb27512a4fc210VgnVCM1000001a56f00aRCRD.htm I don't have time to take up your challenge right now, but this has a lot to do with why big companies aren't hiring right now - many are restructuring internally and working out what they need. But profits are up, so as they discover what works I believe they will hire more (note: that should have started by now, so my timing is not good). But part of the trend is toward contracting out a lot of stuff, which is why more than 40% of the new jobs created since the low point in 2010 are at companies of less than 20 employees. Our whole idea of a "corporation" is changing - and I want to find a good article on that (later). |
2013-10-23T21:30:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19697 |
| I should always mention the broader measure of under/unemployment, U6, when I discuss the jobs reports. Details as to what it means compared to the "headline" unemployment number, U3, can be found here. The headline number ticked down in September from 7.3% to 7.2%, which is a good change from Sept 2012's 7.8%. But we can't say that it came from "discouraged workers" leaving the labor force (the fancy term for what you described). The broadest measure, U6, went from 13.7% in August to 13.6% in September, a good improvement over Sept 2012's 14.7%. That means that taking into account the increase in the labor force (it will keep growing for another few years until Boomers start to retire in large numbers) there was a net gain of 1.5M more people working full time. That's not bad - even if we really do need a lot more than that. It's good to watch the "alternative measures" the BLS puts out. They don't get anywhere near enough cred for U6: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm | 2013-10-23T16:21:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19694 |
| Yes, a little bragging. :-) But mostly that this is going to change how we talk about jobs in the future, and the press is apparently going to be less reliant on the BLS report. That's a good thing, but what is going to replace it? I hope they do more reporting on their own - that's something I can't do from here. Interviews with employers and employees, things like that. Perhaps some groups will come up with their own surveys or rely more on ADP or Challenger Gray & Christmas who do their own reports. Yes, I did complain a lot when the Fed extended their bond buying program and the weak August jobs report was given as a reason - that was totally uncalled for. But that was different - Bernanke himself made no reference to it and even said that jobs were moving ahead about as well as they could expect. |
2013-10-23T14:32:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/23/dissin-the-jobs-report/#comment-19692 |
| Yes, Mexico can do it. The more I think about Anna's comment that it's all a plot to stop immigration by ruingin our economy the more it makes sense. Mexico does seem to have its act together just when we look pretty stupid. | 2013-10-22T22:40:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19681 |
| I am in favor of different teas. My favorites are Twinings Prince of Wales (really a Qimon) and Tie Guan Yin, the Iron Goddess of Mercy. But if you're springing for a shipment of loose tea from Twinings, be sure to get some of their Christmas Tea - really good. :-) | 2013-10-22T22:38:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/21/holiday-shopping/#comment-19680 |
| Yes on all counts. However, large or small, this is a huge part of the economy and a good holiday season is what's left to frost the cake that is the good set of stats we've had all year. Assuming, of course, that the jobs, real estate, and consumer confidence data continue to look good after we see the effects of the shutdown. I think they will. | 2013-10-22T03:41:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/21/holiday-shopping/#comment-19674 |
| I wanted to use this as a baseline before we had any data - it seemed as though I couldn't wait until too close to Halloween this year. But yes, I want the September jobs report at least before I'll have any idea at all. I'll come back to this in a month to see where it seems to be heading. Remember, last year at this time we were dealing with Hurricane Sandy. This really should b e a better year without a lot of push. |
2013-10-22T03:40:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/21/holiday-shopping/#comment-19673 |
| Between 15 Jan and March, yes, we will be back - with bigger sequestration on the table, too. I have no predictions now given that this is very fluid. I don't think anything like this will go down, but it's up to the saner Dems and Repubs to make something like a deal happen in the meantime - and, well, they aren't all that sane. Let's see if this scared them into it. | 2013-10-21T02:36:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19668 |
| Mostly, that is what matters, yes. | 2013-10-21T02:34:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19667 |
| Wasn't that fun? Good call on trashing the economy, I'll have to steal that from you! :-) | 2013-10-21T02:33:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19666 |
| I think you are right. There are a lot of loose stories but very few good studies released. It makes me wonder a lot. | 2013-10-21T02:32:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/18/meanwhile/#comment-19665 |
| They may, we'll see. This was brutal. | 2013-10-17T23:03:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/16/appalling-behavior/#comment-19649 |
| I have nothing more to say. The underlying problems, some of which were identified here, remain. Nothing really happened, no. | 2013-10-17T23:03:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/16/appalling-behavior/#comment-19648 |
| Yes, let's move on. Whitman is good, thanks. :-) | 2013-10-17T23:02:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/16/appalling-behavior/#comment-19647 |
| I would be much happier if people didn't talk about "taking out" people on my blog. Thanks. I realize that I upped the ante a bit by saying that they have a gun pointed at us, and I do mean that. But pointing a gun at a particular person seems like a step further. |
2013-10-14T21:23:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19618 |
| I will admit that the President does not have an agenda together and that this is a serious problem. However - the House had many opportunities to pass an actual budget and they did not - and here we are in crisis mode. And one man determines what happens? That's ludicrous. | 2013-10-14T13:30:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19615 |
| No, I think this is a revolt against big business and Wall Street, too. They can't be happy with the threat of default and this action only shows how hard the position is. We have only a few days before this gets very bad, and that is not good for anyone with a lot of money. | 2013-10-14T02:52:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19604 |
| I can't think of anything else to call it. A default would be a terrible disaster and to even threaten it is utterly irresponsible. If you don't like calling this for what it is then please go away. | 2013-10-14T02:45:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19602 |
| Thanks! | 2013-10-14T02:02:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/11/dia-de-la-raza-2/#comment-19599 |
| Thanks! Yes, I had to do something else. Besides, it's a good idea for a holiday! | 2013-10-14T02:02:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/11/dia-de-la-raza-2/#comment-19598 |
| That is correct, they kept the power with Cantor. This is a bit of a coup for the Tea Party by any measure. And why didn't this story get out? I don't know, but I'm also curious how they got this through the House in the first place. | 2013-10-14T02:02:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/14/losing-change-the-rules/#comment-19597 |
| You know that I find far more fault with Republicans and do not like the "false equivalency" of blaming both parties for the creation of this situation. However, I will agree that both are constantly hardening their positions and digging in more and more - which is not at all helpful. They really do not trust each other at all, which suggests that no negotiations would ever work. | 2013-10-10T21:20:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19577 |
| I fully agree that Ryan is showing excellent leadership and is bringing up important issues that do have to be dealt with. However, I still think that passing an actual budget would be far, far better as a way to address this. | 2013-10-10T21:18:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19576 |
| Panic or exasperation? :-) | 2013-10-10T21:17:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19575 |
| It would be interesting if congress turned on the money people of the US, right? Especially if it came from the Republicans / Tea Party first. | 2013-10-10T21:17:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19574 |
| And the tactic employed (not a strategy, as it lacked an endgame) backfired horribly: http://www.gallup.com/poll/165317/republican-party-favorability-sinks-record-low.aspx | 2013-10-10T21:16:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19573 |
| I do not mind a major disagreement fought out in the open. I do mind it when everything is turned into a crisis, especially the debt ceiling crisis which would be a real catastrophe. And it's especially difficult when the leader of the House side, Boehner, said repeatedly that he didn't think such brinksmanship was appropriate. Things are changing, more on that below, but the way this started was not a good way to conduct a healthy fight which the nation does indeed need, IMHO. |
2013-10-10T21:14:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/09/ready-to-panic/#comment-19572 |
| Bingo. It's a point worth thinking about. Not having info is reason for the markets to start panicking by itself. | 2013-10-08T21:44:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/07/the-tough-quarter-starts/#comment-19558 |
| From Jan 2008 (peak) to Jan 2010 (trough) we lost 8.8M jobs. We have made up 7.1M of them since then. In 2013 so far we have gained 1.47M, so we are running about 2M gain per year and should be back at the level we were before by June 2014. However, it does pick up in 4Q. Last year at this time we only had 1.32M gained, but picked up a full 632k in 4Q12. So there is always reason to hope - barring, of course, an extended shutdown or even worse a default. The Feds can only screw up a good thing at this point. We are getting out of the woods, if slowly. Keep in mind that the workforce is still expanding (and should until 2017 when more Boomers retire) so we do need 5-6M more jobs from where we are now, meaning full employment is not likely until that retirement wave hits at this rate. |
2013-10-07T13:52:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/07/the-tough-quarter-starts/#comment-19555 |
| That's really all I care about, too. The rest is a game - although the shutdown does hurt a lot of people and is terribly inconvenient to just about everyone. | 2013-10-04T21:03:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19544 |
| This isn't about me, and I see no reason why my personal life should be a part of this discussion. It borders on stalking, and it frankly says more about you than me in the end. I will say that personally I don't care the slightest bit where an interesting argument comes from, whether it's Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Irving Fisher, or Karl Marx. Going after the person seems very lazy at worst and pointless at best. So if you really want to go after me, by all means do. But you only weakens your arguments. I'd much rather that everyone, even those I don't agree with, have the strongest arguments possible. |
2013-10-04T21:02:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19543 |
| This is why I reposted the old piece on Opportunity Costs, and y'all are right where I have been on this topic. We know there is an infrastructure deficit, for example, which is the fancy way of saying bridges are falling down. Rather than pay people unemployment bennies, why not spend a little more and pay them to fix things? It seems reasonable to me in a depression, but we haven't made that choice on a basis big enough to affect either the unemployment rate or the net deficit in infrastructure. So yes, we have tough choices to make and we simply aren't doing them. Note that I don't think Congress should ever do this in a vacuum, but should get the discussion going and really engage the public. The economy is changing rapidly and people need to be connected to what's going on, IMHO. | 2013-10-04T20:57:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19542 |
| $700B per year on just the Defense Department, not including Homeland Security and so on, is a lot of money. It's also about 40% of the planet's total expenditure on defense, about 6X our nearest competitor (China, interestingly enough). So I would say there has to be some room to give. Before we cut the cruise missiles, how about we have a major consolidation of European bases? I've seen estimates that this alone could save up to $50B a year, although I can't vouch for the accuracy of that (and it seems high). But yes, given that we have 10 of the planet's 20 aircraft carriers (all but 4 of which are operated by our allies, the others being Brazil, Russia, India, and China interestingly enough) and 20 B-2 bombers that have to be about an aircraft carrier equivalent except they can strike anywhere without any warning, there have to be more places to trim without actually harming our proper defense. That's all another good fight that we should be having, but aren't. I'd love to hear someone defend why we spend all this and have all this, I really would. |
2013-10-04T20:48:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19541 |
| It's hardly a secret of any kind. And given that Medicare hits the wall between 2020-24 there is going to have to be a serious reduction or increase in allocated funding, neither of which are good. So yes, the Dems do have a lot to give on the budget generally and that fight would be a very good one to have. Once again, the Simpson-Bowles framework seems to me the only logical way to approach that, but ... we are so far from even starting that discussion at this point. |
2013-10-04T20:40:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19540 |
| They may give up something token. One thing under consideration is the Medical Device Tax, which was never all that important anyway. But the revenue would have to be made up somewhere else should that happen. At least it will be a budgetary kind of discussion, so it's far less asymmetric and could indeed be he subject of bargaining. | 2013-10-04T20:37:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/04/endgame/#comment-19539 |
| Let me put it this way, then - do you disagree that threatening a default is unique in post Civil War US politics? Because that is where I am coming from, and the Atlantic article quoted above put it better than I did. See next column on how at least some Republicans see this fight and how it will end. I think we're seeing a lot of sanity rise to this situation - and not from my party. | 2013-10-03T23:09:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19531 |
| I think this sums up the situation very succinctly: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/09/your-false-equivalence-guide-to-the-days-ahead/280062/ "The debt-ceiling vote, of course, is not about future spending decisions. It is about whether to cover expenditures the Congress has already authorized. There is no sane reason for subjecting this to a repeated vote. And there is no precedent for serious threats not to honor federal debt -- as opposed to symbolic anti-Administration protest votes, which both parties have cast over the years. Nor for demanding the reversal of major legislation as a condition for routine government operations. In case the point is not clear yet: there is no post-Civil War precedent for what the House GOP is doing now. It is radical, and dangerous for the economy and our process of government, and its departure from past political disagreements can't be buffed away or ignored. If someone can think of a precedent after the era of John C. Calhoun, shown above in Mathew Brady's famous portrait, let me know." |
2013-10-03T21:53:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19529 |
| Pish-tosh. Everyone has the right to speak their mind, and to some extent we have an obligation to, IMHO. But that's very different from financial armageddon - the threshold for that should be set very, very high IMHO. | 2013-10-03T21:27:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19528 |
| You are correct in that Obama won by +5% and the House elections overall went +2%, meaning that at least 3% of all voters split their ticket. That may not sound like much, but at the margins in a close election it does make a difference - and I think that it is done very deliberately. These are probably people who fear one party having too much power to force their agenda through entirely. I think that makes a lot of sense. But it would be good to find those people and really nail it down, you're right. It probably would be really fun! |
2013-10-03T21:26:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19527 |
| The age of "Rockefeller Republicans" is very long gone, but there are still many Republicans who are quite conservative yet decent and honorable. I don't have to agree with everyone - that'd be boring - but it is important that our government generally figure out how to move forward. I am also concerned about Boehner's "leadership" given that he is doing something he said was wrong just a short time ago, and probably doing it just to hold his position of power. | 2013-10-03T21:22:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19526 |
| Hmmm ... don't recall mentioning oligarchs or even rich people .... just people who ideologically disagree with me for any number of reasons. | 2013-10-03T21:19:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19525 |
| And at least one Republican thinks I'm too "mean", apparently. That seems to me like I hit the middle about right, offhand. Or I'm just way out of touch, which is also possible. :-) | 2013-10-03T21:18:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19524 |
| Interesting that you say that this is insulting, but don't say why. Until you do, I'll just assume you are being satirical - especially given how you go on about "feelings" so often. As for how many liberals/lefties behave - what makes you think I'll back what others have to say? I usually don't unless they are trying to advance cooperation, policy, or perspective. Most of what passes for campaign rhetoric is actually counter-productive because it turns the truly undecided off altogether. |
2013-10-03T21:17:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19523 |
| Standing up for what you believe in and threatening to destroy the global financial system are two very different things. | 2013-10-03T21:13:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/10/02/dear-republican-friends/#comment-19522 |
| Off topic, but I'll respond. And I'll assume that you are being sarcastic, yet I'll treat it seriously. Yes, "work sharing" is the most obvious way to get through this. If everyone worked 32 hours a week we'd have no unemployment right now. The problem, of course, is that we don't have an industrial society anymore where most people make their wages at a job defined by a big company. It was easy to define "time and a half" at 40 hours as a penalty back in the 1930s, but much more difficult today. A truly flexible labor force should be everyone's goal, IMHO, but there are so many barriers to this. Training is the most obvious, and the way we continue to tie health care to employment doesn't help one bit. But we can move that direction and free up labor substantially - giving it a bit more of an edge than it has now. I'm all in favor of that. |
2013-10-02T00:17:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/30/opportunity-costs/#comment-19505 |
| It's been since 2010 for a real budget. It's very sad. No one really knows what is being spent at this point, either. If you want to trim it the first thing to do is to actually LOOK at it. | 2013-10-02T00:13:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/30/opportunity-costs/#comment-19504 |
| I don't think they thought it through that much. Yes, many of them are really Libertarian anarchists at heart. But most of them are just acting out of impulse, I think. | 2013-10-02T00:12:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/30/opportunity-costs/#comment-19503 |
| That is one conclusion, yes, and I won't say it is invalid. But to say "capitalism is dead" is to say we have to re-invent nearly everything, and I don't think very many people are ready for that - nor do I think we'll come close to getting things right, especially given the history of trying. Interdependence does mean we'll all have to be playing by at least similar rules, and we're nowhere near that right now. Forcing those rules from above doesn't seem to work very well, for what I think are obvious reasons, so we'll have to work it out. And to defend Pa Ingalls a bit, he did try to be understanding of the natives, at least as his daughter wrote about him. I think it was probably genuine, too. People had enough to worry about just surviving so why go causing trouble? Life was pretty miserable, getting along would have been rather important. Granted a lot of people made a living screwing over the natives, but I think the average Indian Agent kept moving and never had to deal with the consequences of their actions. |
2013-09-27T04:17:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/27/resiliency-vs-interdependence/#comment-19479 |
| Very little of what he owned came from cities. And "holy" is your word - I'm not from here and I know perfectly well I'd never survive in his world. I'm quite thankful to be in this one. But this is not about me and I'd prefer you not try to make it that way. | 2013-09-27T03:01:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/27/resiliency-vs-interdependence/#comment-19477 |
| What are you quoting? I do agree with it, all around. And it's worth noting that the New Deal was done with a deficit that never exceeded 5% of GDP - vs up to 10% in this Managed Depression. We've really tried to do everything with monetary policy this time 'round. | 2013-09-26T02:48:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19470 |
| I am going to stay on this ,and I am more convinced that we are going to hit 2017 running than ever. If the growth in jobs picks up over 200k per month we will be very much onto something. | 2013-09-26T02:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19469 |
| It really rankles you, doesn't it? Don't worry, I'm starting to think this will fizzle quickly. We can get back to the macroeconomics. :-) | 2013-09-26T02:45:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19468 |
| There is much more to it, but I see this coming down to a relative balance between capital and labor. When there are a lot of people in the job market, supply and demand naturally puts them a relative disadvantage. That's not everything going on, but it's a good part of it, I think. People who focus on inequality tend to move their thinking into tax law quickly. They should look at employment law and market trends just as easily, IMHO. |
2013-09-26T02:44:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19467 |
| Yes, the cyclical part is both very mysterious and very understandable. It does seem to be human nature that we get caught up in waves and do things that are stupid - on but the greed and fear ends of the scale. So the waves continue. There's really no set in stone reason for business cycles, but they are very, very real. It does seem to be nothing more than human nature and it goes against any kind of "rational assumption" or steady-state model. | 2013-09-26T02:42:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19466 |
| Wow - this is out of left field a bit, but I like the challenge. I will think about it. Comments from anyone else? | 2013-09-25T05:03:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/25/triple-threat/#comment-19457 |
| Thank you! | 2013-09-23T21:59:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19436 |
| It was a big win, but the Free Democrats are possibly out of the Bundestag. A grand coalition with Social Democrats appears to be in the works, which will be interesting - the last time they had one was pre Euro crises. | 2013-09-23T21:58:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19435 |
| I'll take your perspective on this - you are right, it's not like we have open violence! As for debt, I am very cautious about taking on more, yes. I think we have to be very prudent and careful - and I do support what infrastructure spending has gotten through Congress so far. But - bad debt is bad debt, and there is no point in letting it linger around. We know there are trillions in loans that will never be repaid, so why not clear them now? That's the Jubilee. And while we're at it, let's be very careful about any new debt taken on . If I gave you the impression I was shocked by debt holders getting back a fraction, I didn't express my position adequately. I am appalled by how write-downs of up to 80% on Greek bonds are called a "haircut" - it's a default, not a restructuring. It's the Orwellian nature of the term meaning "a little off the top" that bothers me - 80% is not a "haircut". I also oppose a massive, willy-nilly stimulus because in a global economy the benefits will not stay here in the US. The Great Convergence, as I am starting to call it, between developed and developing world economies was financed largely by the carry trade - borrowing in US Dollars at 0% and loaning it to BRIC nations. We can't use the old-fashioned concept of Keynsianism because we don't have a closed economy anymore. I think I need to write about this more explicitly. It is an important concept. |
2013-09-23T21:57:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19434 |
| It is worth saying this again and again - it's not like the House did THEIR part of the job and propose an actual budget. We haven't had one since the Republicans took over and that is just sick. | 2013-09-23T21:50:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19433 |
| Opposition to Obamacare is simply bizarre in the extreme. A shutdown will be very painful and will hurt Repubs terribly - as will their opposition to Obamacare once people get into it and realize how it works. This is all so very crazy - and suicidal. | 2013-09-23T21:49:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19432 |
| I think you are right - and I think this tidbit tells the story: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/09/22/palin-demands-fox-news-host-turn-over-the-gop-cannibals-who-are-trying-to-trash-cruz/ Republicans are far from united on this, for some very good reasons. There isn't anything for them to win if you look at it objectively. So I do hope you are right and they don't do anything stupid. If they do, it's clearly not in their best interests anyway. |
2013-09-23T21:47:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/23/gameday-in-washingtoon/#comment-19431 |
| They really don't, and it's appalling. I feel like we'll never get through this until people understand the situation better - and that is not going to happen with today's lazy, stupid, and generally useless financial press. | 2013-09-21T19:39:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19416 |
| My main point here is that coverage of financial and economic issues is horrible, but I wanted to say more than just that. Bernanke laid out the whole logic and what was reported was "we had a weak jobs report." The most powerful man in the world and no one listens to him? We've come a long way since Alan Greenspan ... | 2013-09-21T19:38:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19415 |
| Idiot is OK. :-) | 2013-09-21T19:37:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19414 |
| Apparently not. I am going to take this personally and assume that they are doing the one thing then knew that could wreck my holiday season prediction. | 2013-09-21T19:36:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19413 |
| I have never been happy that QE3 took the form of buying mortgage backed bonds, but the logic appears to be that the Fed wanted to have as much direct influence on jobs and the incomes of ordinary people as possible. So while I agree that inflating a new housing bubble is a bad idea, there was a reason for doing this in the first place. Having said that, this is why I proposed a Jubilee to cancel debt as a better alternative. I am not worried about the emerging nations at all - they got where they did on cheap credit and they will continue to have a lot going for them. As we see in Brazil they have their own work cut out for them in internal reforms (listening, China? Russia?) and it's up to them to get to that sooner rather than later if they want more growth, IMHO. I can only hope that the government starts to do its job. How long have we been waiting? |
2013-09-21T19:35:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/20/bernanke-in-charge/#comment-19412 |
| I think I agree, but we also have to point out that things are recovering and there is money to do something about this problem - if we can figure out how to spend it effectively. | 2013-09-19T23:47:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/18/poverty-persists/#comment-19402 |
| Sorry about the problem - wordpress does that. I am not backing down on my prediction - I wanted to make it first and make it clearly. The next post deals with the one thing that could screw it all up - in Bernanke's words, not mine. A good Christmas season would help the persistent poverty, I think, but it's important to know going in what we are dealing with here. People are being very much left behind. |
2013-09-19T23:46:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/18/poverty-persists/#comment-19401 |
| You may well be right. I want to find out more about the 15% that are stuck in what appears to be a permanent underclass. It's not surprising that some people are being left behind in this ragged restructuring, but why? Asking that question leads to good policy. | 2013-09-19T23:44:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/18/poverty-persists/#comment-19400 |
| My thesis is that it was managed, if badly, until 2008. From then on they have been doing their best - and it could have been a LOT worse than -9M+ jobs. No, there is nothing to be happy about here, but the restructuring is occurring and that is a good thing. | 2013-09-17T01:49:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/16/5-years-after-lehman/#comment-19380 |
| No, I think things will be recovering nicely by 2017 - except in places where there is lingering youth unemployment like Greece and Spain. They will be slow to pull out of this. Baratarianism? I can only hope. What we need more than anything else is a solid dose of basic Government 101, as I wrote about a little while ago. It's the exact opposite of sexy, like me, but it seems to work. Black Friday? Look, I'm really OK with it as a concept. Families going out to hang at the mall or whatever is a lot of fun and I hope people can do it up well. A huge panic mob out for blood and/or money is not good, and I will NOT abide by crowding out Thanksgiving. But hey, a lot of people get together and have a family outing the day after and that is cool. But can't we all shop local when we do it? :-) |
2013-09-17T01:47:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/16/5-years-after-lehman/#comment-19379 |
| That is very poetic and I hope you don't mind if I steal it. You are quite correct - the "management" as we have come to know what defines this depression has been to inject cash at the top, not where it does the most good. There are many reasons for this, but the main one is that the agency really on the ball, the Federal Reserve, can't do much else. It's really sad when the Fed is looking out for the little guy and the government is looking out for the rich, but we live in a really effed up world. |
2013-09-17T01:43:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/16/5-years-after-lehman/#comment-19378 |
| There were many signs, and Bear, Stearns was only the worst of them. The first time the LIBOR really broke was in January of 2008, and American Home Mortgage filed for BK in August of 2007 - more than a year earlier. It was a time of panic generally, and I wrote about it then: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/08/13/stupid-money/ | 2013-09-17T01:36:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/16/5-years-after-lehman/#comment-19377 |
| Ha! I am taking a stand, the tea leaves point to a good holiday season and I'll go with that. It does seem a bit premature, yes, but there is every reason to believe this will happen. The jobs are coming back, if still slowly. What matters is if they peak above 200k gained per month, which was about as good as it got in 2006. We're still waiting to hit that level reliably (though we did get it for a while in 2011). | 2013-09-13T19:27:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/13/how-good-will-it-be/#comment-19351 |
| OK - let's count up the ways you are wrong. We covered the part-time job myth a short time ago. It's not a "recovery", it's a "restructuring", which is a very different thing. QE, I'll give you. And no, the real unemployment rate is 13.7% (U6) as we discussed. And no, I have no time for left/right. Sorry, but if you're going to presume things about me you might want to do a wee bit of research. | 2013-09-13T04:42:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/13/how-good-will-it-be/#comment-19347 |
| I think that for all their gains, China has a real cap on its potential. For one thing, all the people crowded into those polluted cities from their previous lives in the countryside cannot be particularly happy. I don't know what it takes to get a real rebellion in the works in China, but they have to be pretty close to something happening. That leaves aside basic freedoms - which we can always hope people develop an appetite for. They do want to take us on, and Syria is probably just an example of them testing their muscle safely behind Russia's cover. But I doubt they have as much as they want to given their ambitions. I can see them realistically collapsing back inward to take care of their own problems soon. |
2013-09-13T00:14:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19345 |
| It's despicable. There's no reason Russia couldn't broker a peace and remain a friend to whatever government winds up in power. But ... no ... | 2013-09-12T20:26:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19337 |
| I am very much in favor of us assisting in any way we can, but I am also sure we can't make Syria whole by ourselves. I agree that Putin will have a role, and I'm pretty sure the Arab League will have to as well. The refugee crisis will have to be managed by the UN for years to come even if there is a peace tomorrow. We have done well for the nations that were once our enemies, at least in the past. But while our ability to destroy is utterly unmatched by a wide margin, our ability to put things back has reasonable limits. If the Syrian people still want to fight it could be very hard to stop it. But yes, let's talk about putting an end to this and what that will really take. There has been far too much suffering already. |
2013-09-12T20:24:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19336 |
| I think there may be a plan to ease the suffering of Syrians, but it may be very hard to implement. I am very much in favor of anything we can do to put an end to this. Anyone who says that this is not in our national interest is full of crap - this is currently destabilizing the entire region and will only get worse. | 2013-09-12T20:21:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19334 |
| I do not think the use of force was called for in 2003 against Iraq, but that's only the biggest use of it. Under Clinton we sent cruise missiles to a lot of places, including a Sudanese pharmaceutical factory that we suspected, wrong, of being an explosives works. I believe we have gotten much better since Iraq, but the temptation to use force is going to remain. | 2013-09-12T20:19:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19333 |
| Russia and China have behaved inexcusably, IMHO. They are clearly just opposing the US - even when it's clearly about doing the right thing. | 2013-09-12T20:17:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19332 |
| Another footnote: The Kerry-Lavrov deal on Syria giving up chemical weapons has been floating around for months. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/11/world/middleeast/Syria-An-Unlikely-Evolution.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 This was not just an offhand remark. | 2013-09-12T05:11:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19323 |
| Footnote: Meanwhile, Obama prepares for war. The full text of his remarks. | 2013-09-11T01:56:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/11/syria-breaks/#comment-19318 |
| I think we all win this one, if it works out. See next post. | 2013-09-11T01:00:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19317 |
| Yes, just about everything that we consume in the Twin Cities goes through there. It's amazing. And that is why the St Paul Saints have to move - to expand that yard. | 2013-09-11T00:59:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19316 |
| I do wonder how well they are bolted down, yes. They are replacing the old semis very rapidly. | 2013-09-11T00:58:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19315 |
| Automation is very much a real thing that will continue to advance. We may use it to make more things in the US and not rely on hand labor, so it does cut both ways. But it implies that worker salaries should be higher and/or workweeks should be shorter to share the benefits across all of society - either that, or we have to consume more. I believe very strongly that once the Baby Boomers exit the workforce there will be upward pressure on wages and we will see a greater sharing of the benefits - mostly through social security payments. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/ | 2013-09-11T00:56:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19314 |
| Globalism as we know it simply would not have happened without the TEU, for better or worse. My Dad was over in Hong Kong when China first opened up in 1974, and in just 40 years the nation was transformed by it. That could not have happened without the ready made infrastructure of these containers, which came along at about the same time. | 2013-09-11T00:53:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/09/containerized-cargo/#comment-19313 |
| I was surprised to find that new jobs are full time, but as I thought about it not so much. The overhead per employee is so high that it often pays to actually plan for overtime in your workforce, so yeah. | 2013-09-10T02:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19304 |
| A quick comment. Naturally, the DJIA threatened to dive after I posted it was up, and naturally the official BLS number came in pretty low - but I ignore that because it really is that noisy and I don't care. But this was a rather popular post all in all, and it was done as something of an experiment. I'm convinced now that people want a lot more context in their news - something that helps them make sense of the information that is shot at them "like a firehose aimed at a teacup" (to quote Scott Adams). If you'd like to discuss that more, I invite you to my personal basefook page at https://www.facebook.com/erik.hare/posts/10151578528287061 I think there is a real opportunity to improve journalism that is being missed in a big way. | 2013-09-06T23:56:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/06/adp-employment-report/#comment-19285 |
| Yes! All around, you got it. It's just going to take time to absorb all that job loss. It's really that simple. | 2013-09-06T21:56:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/06/adp-employment-report/#comment-19284 |
| Yes, a good point. I think growth would have been higher, but we appear to be entering a higher growth period so it was masked. It sort of implies that it came at just the right time, which is rather ironic. | 2013-09-06T21:55:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/06/adp-employment-report/#comment-19283 |
| Then I didn't explain it well enough! Well, here's the graph. Any more questions? :-) | 2013-09-06T21:54:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/06/adp-employment-report/#comment-19282 |
| Re-evaluating High School is an excellent idea, but you want to whip up a partisan firestorm that'll do it. But yes, I think demanding more from the "free" parts of school and getting people ready to face life one way or the other at age 18 should be a goal. | 2013-09-06T21:53:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/04/realistic-generation/#comment-19281 |
| I think everyone agrees with you here. There may have to be other ways to get constant education or certifications as needed in the future. | 2013-09-06T21:52:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/04/realistic-generation/#comment-19280 |
| I don't know if "fearful" is quite right, but that's a quibble. Anxious isn't much different when you start talking about it. You are right, it's going to be hard for them when there are opportunities out there to grab and run with. All in all, this generation will be a lot like "The Greatest Generation" that got their attitudes from the Depression - and then won WWII. They were very risk adverse, but it worked for them. I hope this group works together as well. |
2013-09-06T21:51:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/04/realistic-generation/#comment-19279 |
| I think we have to act eventually, but when it is over a nation has to be put back together. We don't have that coalition in place yet. I don't know how it will happen. I think I am still against intervention until we have an end in mind. | 2013-09-06T21:48:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/02/sovereignty/#comment-19278 |
| The politician. :-) Seriously, I want the killing to stop and I have for years now. I don't think we can possibly do this alone or even with a European coalition. If the Arab League wants us to join them in action it might work, but they just rejected us. I can't see things getting better over the long haul if someone - the UN, Arab League, or similar - doesn't step up to handle the aftermath. And I just don't think we can possibly do it well on our own. Replacing today's suffering for more tomorrow is not an answer, IMHO/ | 2013-09-02T03:07:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/09/02/sovereignty/#comment-19227 |
| The minimum wage probably should be raised substantially, but the problem really does come in the hospitality industry. It is hard to imagine cheap eateries making it, but an upscale one that is selling excellent service as part of the evening does have far more room and desire for higher base wages. Then there are tips to consider, always a strange thing. | 2013-09-01T16:53:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19225 |
| Retired people are far from secure, and I think you are right that a lot of the PT by choice will be older people who just can't physically work more than about 20 hours and/or just need a little supplement. And yes, the suicide rates over 50 are pretty high, and it's a reflection of not being able to survive in this world, so it's related. There is a lot more to say on PT work, but this is what we have for now. I liked the historical perspective in this report which tells us that where we are is not that unusual (except the reduced hours part). | 2013-09-01T16:51:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19224 |
| For many people, PT is enough - apparently about 1in 7 workers. But yes, that's hardly a majority. I am thinking about a piece on Syria, but I have no idea what needs to be said on it. |
2013-09-01T16:49:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19223 |
| I thought the same thing coming in, but it does seem that PT is not a trend. I'm sure this will be revisited - as I said in the piece on employment stats, the PT figures have way more heft than their position in the middle of a big report would suggest. | 2013-09-01T16:48:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19222 |
| Thank you very much! I have not seen this work mentioned anywhere else, and I thought it was worth getting out there. | 2013-09-01T16:46:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19221 |
| Consultants are a good question - what is "full time" to people working the 990? I don't know. But yes, it seems that 3:1 people work PT because they want to. I find that interesting. The 40 hour workweek is a bit artificial. | 2013-09-01T16:46:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/#comment-19220 |
| My concern is that while we can certainly ease the short-term suffering, there is the possibility of making things worse in the long term. An international coalition is essential, IMHO, and without UN backing I can't see that happening. |
2013-08-30T21:03:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19210 |
| Yes, we are all marching together when we do what we know is right. And most people do, frankly. Perhaps we need to be counted better. | 2013-08-30T00:14:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19202 |
| Thanks! | 2013-08-30T00:13:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19201 |
| MLK would certainly be against the intervention we do around the world, and his family said so. I think we have to question this a lot more than we do. I can make a case for getting into Syria, but I still don't like it one bit. | 2013-08-30T00:13:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19200 |
| Thanks! We may not get to the promised land, as MLK himself knew. Sadly, it was far too short of that for him. | 2013-08-30T00:12:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19199 |
| No idea where you are going, but according to quantcast the average income is well over $100k. No, I don't have that kind of scratch m'self. :-) | 2013-08-30T00:11:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19198 |
| Thanks - I have always loved that story. It shows how the site started down the path to being what it is today - the backdrop of a call to our greatness. | 2013-08-30T00:10:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/28/march-of-history-made-and-unmade/#comment-19197 |
| Thanks! Interesting take, I will think about it. | 2013-08-27T23:17:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/26/womens-equality-day/#comment-19184 |
| I think this will all be reversed in the courts, yes. But we can't sit still and wait for that. It's too important to not make something of this and draw a very clear line - this cannot stand. | 2013-08-27T23:16:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/26/womens-equality-day/#comment-19183 |
| Very much so! Your analogy is spot on. We have to fight for the rights of those who are oppressed if we are going to be able to hold them for ourselves. It is very critical. | 2013-08-27T23:15:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/26/womens-equality-day/#comment-19182 |
| Agreed on China. The rest of the world does have a lot to take care of as well, and I agree on democracy. | 2013-08-26T02:19:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/23/government-101/#comment-19172 |
| It does get political, such as the choice between full employment and maximizing short-term GDP growth, as an example. But many choices are very straighforward. Perhaps this is worthy of a post itself. | 2013-08-26T02:18:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/23/government-101/#comment-19171 |
| Thanks. I'm starting to think all this stuff is really pretty simple. Traders and investors with some experience do have something to teach economists, IMHO. | 2013-08-23T02:44:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/23/government-101/#comment-19156 |
| But how do you get from point A to point B? I don't have all the answers. I'm proposing here an alternative system, as if systemic approaches are the right way to go. I know that's inadequate at best. The US does have an amazing system, and the people really do know best - at least eventually. As a democrat (small d) I fundamentally believe that. Other nations are a bit adrift in all the change, and who can blame them since it's so much to absorb. But they will get it right if they get a chance to see it through over the long haul. Changes often take generations to achieve, especially fundamental ones. How many mothers in our world can really relate to what their daughters are facing? It's so hard to provide guidance and each generation is cast adrift to find its own way. That makes for slow, uneven progress. But .... there is progress. Egypt will work it out or collapse into what appears to be a safe place where they think they can hid (as Iran did). I don't know which. But I do think a system that holds the tension in some kind of stasis might help, at least a little bit. The same is true for many other nations. Lord help us all, this is a difficult time for everyone. |
2013-08-23T02:33:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/21/cabinet-government/#comment-19155 |
| Interesting point. I think you are right. | 2013-08-23T02:26:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/21/cabinet-government/#comment-19154 |
| I picked Egypt because part of how this came to me was thinking about how this would go down if the police weren't tied to the military. It grew from there. Multiple separations of powers in many layers seems to suit a state that is otherwise falling apart to me. | 2013-08-21T00:29:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/21/cabinet-government/#comment-19142 |
| It is losing money, yes. I think he is a very good candidate to be the next Pulitzer - or Hearst. I used the Kane ref for a lot of reasons. :-) | 2013-08-21T00:26:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/19/bezos-buys-post-speculation-rampant/#comment-19141 |
| Yes, it could be that simple. If you have that much money, why not? Look at what Elon Musk does for fun. | 2013-08-21T00:25:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/19/bezos-buys-post-speculation-rampant/#comment-19140 |
| Thanks. This one might as well be true, yes. Newspapers will change, no doubt - that is an excellent point. Someone with the ability to master new ways of delivering information will transform all newspapers someday. Maybe it's Bezos? Why not? |
2013-08-21T00:24:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/19/bezos-buys-post-speculation-rampant/#comment-19139 |
| We're on the same page here. My bias was to never look at retail, which may have been a mistake, but I also stopped looking at manufacturing too closely because I can't see it going anywhere as long as the Dollar is strong. But the loss of 1/3 of our manufacturing jobs since 2000 (down 6M from 18M, roughly) very much describes how we got into what I call the "Managed Depression". It is hard to imagine us getting out of this without replacing those jobs. This is at the heart of why I talk about a "restructuring' rather than a "recovery". The economy is going to have to change in ways we really don't have our fingers on yet before we get out of this. The new economy will contain an area of growth none of us are really thinking about today and when fully-fledged in the 2020s will look like something we wouldn't recognize today, I'd say. It's my best guess. But some manufacturing component probably fits into this, or at least I hope it does, given the importance of manufacturing jobs for young people to get into. This is part of why I'm watching the 20-24 year old unemployment rate - the more important part being that employers will hire people with less experience once they really have confidence in the future. OK, I'm rambling. I think GDP growth will be higher, but still not stellar. Now that we're seeing hiring by big companies the job market will improve - but your point that U6 won't budge because it'll be through temps on part time gigs (or that's how I read it) is an important one. That is a good call, IMHO, and U6 probably won't improve much this year. I think you're just a little pessimistic, but people call me Mr. Sunshine for being too rosy. It beats being called Dr. Doom as I was back in 2007-2009. :-) |
2013-08-18T20:14:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19129 |
| The Fed was off on growth earlier this year, but it did pick up in 2Q13. They are basically saying that trend will continue, which is a decent bet for nearly any trend. Your point about velocity is a very good one - it keeps crashing as the money supply increases and GDP doesn't move much. Here are some key places that we've talked about velocity, particularly with respect to the low-end where velocity is clearly much higher but cash is in short supply. I prefer to use MZ for the money supply since it is so broad, and correspondingly MZM. I figure we'll see a change there first. But yes, it seems unreasonable to see an expansion in consumer demand until the employment picture is at least improving at a decent clip, if not much closer to full employment. That is what we have been really focusing on for 2013 as the key indicators, as we've noted before in Barataria. That consumer spending is not coming around does not bother me much yet, given that, but the apparent drop in YoY change since 2011 is a bit disconcerting. It seems to be worth watching. | 2013-08-16T19:35:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19122 |
| Good line of reasoning for both of you, IMHO! Retail is just awful, no doubt about it. But if everyone had the same jack up in costs it would probably encourage more automation (you left out automated and self-serve check out, one of my faves!) | 2013-08-16T19:27:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19121 |
| I think I might start watching retailers. It's just not my thing, since I have no sense of fashion at all, but this may be the thing that has to turn around next, especially if young people start finding jobs this year as I have predicted. I haven't made too much of it yet, since it bounces around so much, but the gap between 20-24 year old unemployment and overall employment fell again in July to 5.2% (12.6% vs 7.4% overall). That's down quite a bit from the 5.9% at the start of the year and remains my key indicator to watch if we're really making progress in jobs. But that means an awful lot more to clothing outlets that deal in fashion for young people like Gap, etc. |
2013-08-16T19:25:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19119 |
| Amen to the first paragraph, but keep trying to convince the kids that they shouldn't put it all into one thing like a truck! On the second part - I met an apparel engineer who works for Target and is probably right now in Hong Kong working out a deal to buy clothes for them. She said that she can see a lot of apparel manufacture coming home to the US in the near future because it is finally being automated and the need for quick turn-around means the supply chain has to be shortened. Dealing with far-flung nations is a big expense that has to be weighed against the cost of production, and if we can make it all here despite relatively high wages it will all make much more sense. Perhaps not everything at once, but higher ticket items can move here first - the fashion stuff. How is that for an item to keep in mind? I take it as an expert opinion. |
2013-08-16T19:17:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19118 |
| We do need a "consumer economy" of a sort if we are going to have a stable middle class society. I think you put it better below. :-) What kind of consumer economy are we going to have? It is changing, and I would say for the better in the sense that it appears to be a more sustainable one that is developing. | 2013-08-16T19:13:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19117 |
| Amen to all that. I didn't want to get into the problems with WalMart as a destroyer of wages because I've talked about that before and it seemed like a diversion. But the mistake I think we can make that I'm dealing with here is that an uptick in consumer spending is not likely soon, but this is not necessarily a bad thing. Again, we have to wait 4-5 years before this is over, and that is playing out even with relatively good news. | 2013-08-16T19:12:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19116 |
| Amazon is the only online-only outlet to make it this far, and they are having problems, too. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/26/technology/amazon-reports-a-small-loss.html?_r=0 They are seeing growth, however, so you do have a point. | 2013-08-16T19:09:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/16/retail-challenges/#comment-19115 |
| That is how it all started, yes. | 2013-08-16T01:01:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/14/the-junker-brotherhood/#comment-19106 |
| Way older than mine, however! Those things are 60 years and more. I saw a story where someone in Havana made a system for dribbling kerosene (more available than gasoline) into a 50s Cadilac through the hood. That was wild. | 2013-08-16T00:47:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/14/the-junker-brotherhood/#comment-19103 |
| I love stories like that. Over half a million miles! Wow. And why not? Yes, it is usually the body that gives out these days. The suspension and brakes are replaceable (brakes aren't that expensive on a domestic car) but once the body goes it's all gone. That's what's always gotten me. This car is 15 years old and nearing 300k miles but it has a lot left in it. | 2013-08-16T00:46:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/14/the-junker-brotherhood/#comment-19102 |
| Certainly. Relatively rust free. I like Ford Escorts and dread the day that they become extinct (which is very soon). | 2013-08-16T00:43:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/14/the-junker-brotherhood/#comment-19101 |
| Yes, even the Christian faith is not immune to violence. I thought of mentioning Koni and the periodic flare-ups against evangelical protestants in South America, but it seemed like a diversion. At least in the developed world fundamentalism is not usually violent - for now. But it does happen. | 2013-08-14T00:42:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19087 |
| Thank you. I went away from analysis because I believe that identifying a problem requires anyone who is intellectually honest to propose some kind of solution. In this case, it does seem to make the piece weaker, but I stand by it. | 2013-08-14T00:40:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19086 |
| It makes you wonder if we're all doomed, doesn't it? | 2013-08-14T00:39:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19085 |
| The Buddhist radicals are new, for sure. But yes, the world will continue to move forward and in the short run I think these kinds of problems will become more common, not less. | 2013-08-14T00:38:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19084 |
| That they are in essence the same is very important, I think. It is a global trend and the similarities, regardless of the faith, are striking. | 2013-08-14T00:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/12/fundamentalism/#comment-19083 |
| Sounds like one Hell of a journey! I'd love to be on it. I'm sure I've seen every episode since 1970, which is to say in colour, but I'm missing a lot of Hartnell and Troughton. | 2013-08-12T01:00:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/09/peter-capaldi/#comment-19067 |
| Here's hoping! :-) | 2013-08-12T00:57:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19066 |
| Yes, it is mostly a sideshow. This is the real meat - and no one knows what to serve up. A difficult time being filled with nonsense. Sigh. | 2013-08-12T00:57:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-19065 |
| Wasn't me, sadly. If it was, you'd be hearing about a project involving a Ford Focus with a blown eingine being turned into a turbine electric hybrid. :-) | 2013-08-09T01:18:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/07/a-st-paul-moment/#comment-19051 |
| Thanks! | 2013-08-09T01:17:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/07/a-st-paul-moment/#comment-19050 |
| Thanks! | 2013-08-09T01:17:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/07/a-st-paul-moment/#comment-19049 |
| It isn't exactly working as it is supposed to, but things could always be worse. Yes, most of the benefit goes to the big bankers, but the system was kept from totally imploding. | 2013-08-07T01:38:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19042 |
| A lot of people feel this way. The Fed Chair can't be a woman? What year is this? | 2013-08-07T01:37:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19041 |
| Personality is the most important issue, yes. And it is a consensus position. So you make an excellent point in far fewer words. | 2013-08-07T01:37:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19040 |
| That would be Yellen. http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/02/07/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSTRE5156GW20090207?sp=true :-) | 2013-08-05T19:22:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/05/chairwoman-of-the-fed/#comment-19031 |
| I can't answer that with confidence. I think the press is lazy, but part of it is that administrations really like the headline (lower!) number. It also does not conform to the way unemployment is reported in other nations, which is closer to the headline U3. U6 is way more informative, however. There's no reason a press outlet can't use both, but it always seems that people writing about economic issues don't even know U6 is there. | 2013-08-05T00:49:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/02/what-is-employment/#comment-19023 |
| I think it was just noise. The BLS number was higher in June but lower in July. It's always noisier overall. Remember, this is a small number derived from subtracting two big numbers - and in the case of the BLS the big numbers come from a survey. A lot of noise month to month. | 2013-08-05T00:30:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/02/what-is-employment/#comment-19019 |
| A bit of a diversion, but I'll bite since you're an old-timer 'round here. :-) I remember that when the Soviet archives were opened they showed an acceptance that their spy Julius Rosenberg was caught, but were mystified by the implication of Ethyl. She apparently had nothing to do with it. I also agree that openness does serve the government's interests far more often than the spymasters seem to appreciate. It probably does make their job a bit harder, but they don't seem to understand their own need for public support over the long haul. Was McCarthy right? Eh. We were infiltrated, but he made the case for that far too political to be useful. Things like that should never be political footballs - or serve the career of one person or party over the other. |
2013-08-05T00:28:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/02/what-is-employment/#comment-19018 |
| I'm not sure about job assurance - a fluid labor market is in everyone's interests through this transition, but we do need basic standards (such as a decent minimum wage). The progress so far has been good, but it's so damned slow - it does have to accelerate to make a difference. | 2013-08-05T00:25:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/08/02/what-is-employment/#comment-19017 |
| I'll leave it 'cuz you were nice. :-) | 2013-08-02T03:31:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-19002 |
| Coffee might be a better one - if it gets ya thinking. :-) | 2013-08-02T03:30:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-19001 |
| Free coffee is a staple in any social setting in Minnesota, but it is often of the "brown crayon dipped in hot water" variety. I like my coffee rather strong and black. :-) | 2013-08-02T03:30:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-19000 |
| Thanks! | 2013-08-02T03:28:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-18999 |
| Well, there you go. They are luxuries, really. | 2013-08-02T03:28:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/31/coffee-tea/#comment-18998 |
| I don't think you have to be a contrarian to think the N11 idea is a lot of hooey. I think there will be far better investment ideas here in the US, but most will be small. There have to be companies that will make use of a lot of new technologies (not 'net based) which will be better value and much easier to keep track of than, say, Iran. Yeesh. | 2013-07-31T03:36:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/29/convergence/#comment-18987 |
| Yes, the world will not be "equal" any time soon. But there are a lot fewer people in poverty, which is a good thing. | 2013-07-31T03:33:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/29/convergence/#comment-18986 |
| India has many problems, and the lack of real resources is probably the worst. They also have a long way to go before they really turn the corner. Brazil has been doing an excellent job of not just using their resources but really adding a lot of value before they leave the nation - bauxite becomes aluminum (after the Amazon dams) and then a wide variety of parts and even airplanes. A lot of jobs are created along the way. It's not just energy for Brazil, it's an array of resources including open land - and making good use of them. Environmentalists, naturally, may disagree with the last part. As for the temp economy, I haven't written on that in a while, and I am thinking about it as you suggested before. There is more that can be said about this transformation and how to make it work - because I think it's permanent. |
2013-07-31T03:32:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/29/convergence/#comment-18985 |
| A good point, I often forget the Cold War. Perhaps it's from trying. So much changed after that and we could move to a more open economy globally - in addition to creating the great engine of Europe, Germany. More to think about, thanks! | 2013-07-31T03:26:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/29/convergence/#comment-18984 |
| Yesterday was plain cold! And that is a lot like the economy. The analogy works better than I thought. Scary. :-) | 2013-07-29T02:26:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18961 |
| Yes, everyone is winging it. And no, I don't feel good about it, either. But I feel good about Jaco, even with his short and sad life. He at least has a great legacy! |
2013-07-29T02:25:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18960 |
| You are right that everyone is starting from their beliefs and working outward - and those beliefs are based on experience from the old economy. It's very backwards thinking. Getting to a point of real pragmatism and truth about the next economy is very hard. | 2013-07-29T02:24:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18959 |
| It is the new economy, like it or not. We are simply not set up to handle a nation of temps, however, and it is very difficult to string together a living off of even a number of such jobs. So much has to be figured out, and we're not even close to doing that. | 2013-07-29T02:23:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18958 |
| There probably will be some effect on employers hiring more part-time people, but the overhead per employee is still so high, even after health care costs, that this will be minimal, I think. We have to see how it sorts out. The key is, indeed, getting money into the hands of people that spend it. Call me a Keynsian if that's what that means, but the velocity of money is much higher among those who have little - they live paycheck to paycheck! People are falling out of the "middle class" and that has to be reversed if we are going to get out of the Depression. That means jobs first and foremost, but it also means more money left over once the paycheck is collected. It's important to have both. |
2013-07-29T02:22:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18957 |
| Thank you. :-) Jaco is a real hero, IMHO. | 2013-07-29T02:18:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/26/three-views-of-an-economy/#comment-18956 |
| Ha! :-) Well, the empire isn't quite what it used to be anyways. | 2013-07-25T20:17:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18922 |
| George is already influencing the world, eh? :-) Thanks! Actually, Pope Francis, formerly Jorge Bergoglio, made my George happy since he is really George Francis in long form. This is another step forward for the return of what I think is a great name! | 2013-07-25T13:52:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18917 |
| A good point. We don't need celebrity, but we do need competent. The first ones will become celebrities, however. Will that ruin them? I hope now. | 2013-07-25T13:50:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18916 |
| Access is a critical issue here, and I know the big name reporters crave it. But what does it really give you? Since everything is defined by spin it almost seems like outsiders have the edge these daze - since they aren't jaded! | 2013-07-25T13:49:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18915 |
| A terrible omission, and thanks for correcting it. :-) | 2013-07-25T13:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/24/nate-silver/#comment-18914 |
| He is not Al Capone, but he's not all that far away in some ways. :-) The goal is to set an example, I think, but it's not clear that this will do it. In that sense, it's silly. The prosecutions under Bharara are far more interesting - and solid. | 2013-07-24T01:49:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/22/cleaning-up-wall-street/#comment-18905 |
| That is my worst fear - that his is used as an example of an administration run amok. | 2013-07-24T01:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/22/cleaning-up-wall-street/#comment-18904 |
| I think she had a lot to do with it, and I think the pressure is only starting. I look for a lot more prosecutions in the near future. | 2013-07-24T01:47:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/22/cleaning-up-wall-street/#comment-18903 |
| Several points, the first is that we agree that there are people who want this to be the main issue. Handling pensions in this day is something I have to think about - are they really dinosaurs that should not exist, going with a 401(k) model, or should we encourage more companies to offer them? I don't really know. I have been thinking more about sprawl and its costs. Long ago, I wrote on that a lot. It is worth revisiting, especially as poverty becomes a more suburban problem all the time. |
2013-07-22T15:56:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18892 |
| Saeldredge, I am seeing the story turn into a pension story, and I agree that this is ludicrous. It is not the largest part of the potential default in Detroit, but since you got me thinking about it I can see two reasons why this part took off: 1) Human interest - no one really cares about ordinary bondholders, which is unfair since Muni bonds are often held by local residents. In a big default on all obligations, the only people that anyone really feels sorry for are the pensioners. It makes a good story - and they have been the most vocal about the BK long before it was filed. So the media wants to focus on that out of a sense of "reality teevee". 2) Unions - the right likes the story this way because it suggests that greedy unions are the problem. They are guaranteed pay but the rest of Detroit suffers? That is the angle that it is taking in the right wing media right now. As for the solution, I don't know at this point. Public employees are the only ones who really get a pension these days. |
2013-07-22T15:47:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18891 |
| I went to college in Pittsburgh (Carnegie) and I fell in love with the place. The story I was told was that the Mayor of the town gathered all the industry leaders into the "Renaissance Conference" and told them that everyone would have to give something. Westinghouse started the Robotics Institute with Carnegie. PPG built a new office building, a symbol of the city. Rooney of the Steelers promised a Superbowl win (and gave them four). Pittsburgh got past the racial problems and made the city work. It's just that kind of city, in the end, and they have done so much better than Cleveland or Detroit. I think it is the most beautiful city in the US, too. And it just plain works! |
2013-07-22T02:09:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18885 |
| That is an interesting idea. I do wonder if there should be another FDIC modeled agency for this sort of thing, and that could be a funding source! | 2013-07-22T02:05:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18884 |
| Thank you. I agree that we do have the resources to be decent people but we have chosen not to. Your comment is quite a blog post in itself, and thanks for sharing it here! | 2013-07-22T02:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18883 |
| I don't know much about the area, to be honest. I have been following the downfall of Detroit city for a long time, and it seems that the public has finally become aware of how bad it is. | 2013-07-22T02:02:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/19/risk-and-reset-who-pays/#comment-18882 |
| There was a lot of "sin" going around, which is always the hard part. Justice, in the real world, is a tricky thing. Good to hear you got away for a bit, though. :-) |
2013-07-22T02:00:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18881 |
| Yes, you are right - it is more subtle and less damaging, but it is indeed always with us. Thanks for the read, I will use that in a later post. Very good work! |
2013-07-22T01:59:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18880 |
| Thanks, I do appreciate it - and hope for the same. A few gains here and there and then a big step backwards. | 2013-07-22T01:58:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18879 |
| I try to turn down the volume more than anything else. Too many people are trying to turn it up, IMHO. | 2013-07-22T01:57:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18878 |
| It is more, but I believe that is the root of it, yes. | 2013-07-22T01:57:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18877 |
| Thanks! | 2013-07-17T02:36:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18844 |
| Thanks. There are more constant forces on us, such as globalism and the Baby Boom's demographics. The cyclical nature of debt has made it harder for us to grapple with those temporarily, but we'll come back to them. I'm thinking a lot about the different nature of these trends, those that are cyclical and those that are directional. | 2013-07-17T02:35:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18843 |
| The way they are constructed, yes. They are based on the old industrial model, which is crumbling around us - and your point about ethnicity is also very key. A new generation of organizers, such as those in the SEIU, will largely agree with this. The movement needs a re-invigoration much like every other institution that we've come to rely on, IMHO. | 2013-07-17T02:34:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18842 |
| Yes, very much so. People who actually look back and learn from history are unusually wise in this world. I have a lot of quibbles with Krugman, but they look less important all the time. | 2013-07-17T02:31:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18841 |
| Several things about manufacturing. If your economy, however you define it, is not making as much as it consumes it is bleeding wealth. That can be made up in part with intellectual property and/or finance, but we aren't really doing that, either. An economy bleeding wealth can't remain where it is forever - but it can go on for a long time. So we do have to make something like what we consume if we're going to maintain our standard of living - and we aren't. The other point is more subtle, but manufacturing jobs really have created opportunity for people who don't know what they want to do when they are 18. There are a lot of people like that, too. Something that creates a place where people can grow on the job is desperately needed - and if that's not manufacturing I'm OK with whatever fills the bill. |
2013-07-17T02:30:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/15/summing-it-up/#comment-18840 |
| Addendum as a comment: I didn't want to waste space theorizing on George Zimmerman's mental state, since I don't know him. But I assure you that everyone I know from Florida had some sympathy for this guy, even the most liberal and open-minded - we've seen people like him before. People learn to thrive in the fear, the adrenaline of the moment, in a land filled with violence and lizard-brained reaction. That is not to excuse his actions in any way at all, but there is an inevitability to this horrible encounter that will almost certainly be repeated over and over again. Until we can get over the fear, there will be no justice. Until we can get over the fear, there is only anger. Until we can get over the fear, there will be no peace. Do we not want all of our children, those that look like Trayvon and those that look like mine, to survive and grow up into a world of peace? |
2013-07-17T00:25:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/17/white-privilege/#comment-18835 |
| I agree that we don't get every story eventually - or at least not until everyone involved is dead. But I trust the NTSB - they have been tough on big companies like Boeing even recently and if there is a problem with the 777 we will hear about it. But yes, that is not always the case. | 2013-07-09T23:27:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18774 |
| Yes, that is the case. I don't doubt that there is a big role for professionals to be on the ground in places like Afghanistan, where amateurs speculating at home cannot tell what is really happening. That makes sense to me. But if all they do is parrot the official line there isn't much point to it. Stories at home require "curation" skills that apparently CNN simply doesn't have. Context is king, and if they can't provide that they are not more useful than an open http port. | 2013-07-09T23:26:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18773 |
| I think it is getting more obvious all the time, yes. | 2013-07-09T23:23:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18772 |
| I liked this story not just because I could brag on George, but because it shows the problem in a way that is very politics-neutral. The information was out there, but they couldn't find it. They did eventually, but if it takes that much time why stay on the air? As for the many things that had to go wrong at once to drop a 777 out of the air like this, that is indeed speculation. What we do know is that they came in too slow and recognized the problem too late. Why? That will take a lot of time. But hey, I don't break news, I fix it. :-) |
2013-07-09T23:23:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18771 |
| Yes, I think that on balance teevee nooze makes people negatively informed - ie, they have the wrong impression about nearly everything. There was a study that showed this for Fox Nooze viewers, but I would think it should hold over all of them. | 2013-07-09T23:21:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/08/major-media-fails/#comment-18770 |
| Thank you very much! From you that means a lot, really thanks! | 2013-07-04T18:26:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/04/flying-the-flag/#comment-18744 |
| I don't think anyone has seriously tried, nor will they. But a few people might start doing something stupid, yes. And if the right should win more power I'm fairly sure "my side" wouldn't be any different about it, no. | 2013-07-04T02:15:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18739 |
| Glorify isn't exactly the right word. The bravery is unimaginable in today's world, and I think it's worth remembering that. But yes, something like this must never happen again - and the cautionary story is at least as important. | 2013-07-04T00:04:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18737 |
| Yes, we are still fighting the Civil War in some ways. Even if the issues have changed a bit, the underlying principles are very similar. | 2013-07-04T00:01:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18736 |
| >blush!< Thank you! It could be a lot briefer, though, more like a slogan. | 2013-07-03T00:34:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18731 |
| Thank you. And yes, I hope that we can think about what this holiday means, especially on such a critical anniversary! | 2013-07-03T00:34:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/03/gettysburg-then-and-now/#comment-18730 |
| But we all do it, all the time. It's a matter of how disconnected people are from the topic at had - be it politics, hollyweird, or whatever. The creation of a fantasy world where Obama is a socialst, for example (as opposed to a generally ineffective run-of-the-mill bureaucrat) takes a lot of suspension of disbelief. But it is what is employed. | 2013-07-01T01:43:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/07/01/suspension-of-disbelief-2/#comment-18718 |
| Thanks! I'm trying to make traditionally male archetypes available for women. When men run for office, there are handy pre-made stories that sit in people's heads that they can use to create a positive image quickly. "Kennedy-esque" comes to mind immediately, but all of our images of leaders are male. I'm trying to cross-over a male image to a woman - and one who I think deserves it. It will help a lot if we can pull off the feat of gender-crossing archetypes. | 2013-07-01T01:42:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/28/the-rhyme-of-texas-history/#comment-18717 |
| There's always one. | 2013-06-29T13:59:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/28/the-rhyme-of-texas-history/#comment-18699 |
| I agree, it is a big opportunity for us and we should make moves to take full advantage of it. The hottest places in the developing world are in our backyard! | 2013-06-26T16:07:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/26/wealth-is-how-you-feel/#comment-18676 |
| Yes, we should. If we felt wealthier we might not have the problems we have - and I think people would be kinder towards those who are struggling. | 2013-06-26T16:07:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/26/wealth-is-how-you-feel/#comment-18675 |
| I don't really want to argue with you about details given that we agree on the most important things. I do agree that the system of corporate taxation is abusive. We have the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world, at 39%. Yet we have much lower effective rates, down around 21%, because of all the deductions allowed. That seems to me to be the worst of both worlds. A much flatter, simpler system would make evasion harder - and lower rates all around. I favor that. The reason a trading tax is desirable is to take the "casino" element out of the stock market and make manipulation harder. A level of just 0.2% would raise enough to cut the corporate tax rate in half, and that may not be a bad idea all around. Imagine a relatively low 10-12% corporate tax that was hard to get out of - that seems reasonably fair. A trading tax wouldn't hit seniors unless they took up day trading, which I think is strongly not recommended anyway. That's my plan, at least. I do agree that the marginal rate on corporations is ridiculous, especially since we riddled the system with holes rather than just reform it properly. |
2013-06-24T21:55:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/24/pirate-banking/#comment-18660 |
| The Federal government is at about 20% of the economy, which I do think is high (especially given how state and local taxes are half that) but it's not totally killing us. I would like to have a reasonable debate about what we really need to be doing as a Federal government, but without that it's going to keep on as it is through sheer momentum (and not because an actual budget was passed, Lordy, no!) PM David Cameron said something like, "If you want low rates you have to make sure everyone pays their share of it." I support that. I think the long term deal has to be low, simplified business taxes and make it very hard to hide money. Unlike individual taxes, there is no solid reason why business taxes on profit have to be progressive - so why not make them flat? Why not get some of the business tax money from a trading tax on the stock market, as we've discussed before? This will take international cooperation, however, and it won't be easy. |
2013-06-24T13:58:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/24/pirate-banking/#comment-18655 |
| The people are paid not to, but the governments need the dough. There's a balance here. :-) | 2013-06-24T13:52:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/24/pirate-banking/#comment-18654 |
| I won't argue with you on most of this - serious change is necessary, and if it doesn't come through peaceful means there's a time to start upping the pressure. As I've said here, there is a chance for a great golden age if we just get our act together, but congress is split between two parties - one that can't get anything done and one that refuses to get anything done. As for China, however, the changes they have seen in 20 years are gut-wrenching at best. Nearly a third of the population came from farms to live in absolutely filthy cities where they work like animals for really meager pay. That's what I mean by a need for intense riots. Sure, we have it bad - but they have it worse and have been promised a lot more. But yes, we should take care of our own problems first, and there are a lot of them. I am afraid it will come down to a kind of revolution - but if that's what it takes, count me in. What we have now can't hold. |
2013-06-23T00:34:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/21/cold-currency-war/#comment-18644 |
| To get from here to there will probably take civil unrest - the government won't give up power unless it has to. I expect there will be civil unrest if they shut down the shadow banking system because people will be plunged into poverty. The social upheaval China has experienced has been amazing - any other nation wold have had intense riots by now. Something is likely to happen, yes, and it may well lead to more freedom. But I think it has to be guided that direction if we're going to see it happen. | 2013-06-21T18:20:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/21/cold-currency-war/#comment-18638 |
| It does seem incredibly backwards, yes. China is simply taking its rightful place in the world after a few really bad centuries. The process has been rapid but very uneven so far, and it has made for a life that is often hellish at best. Normalizing this into something modern is still going to be difficult. | 2013-06-21T16:17:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/21/cold-currency-war/#comment-18636 |
| Agreed all around. We have a good Fed Board of Governors, all in all. I hear they have had a lot of spirited discussions, which is very much called for in these times. | 2013-06-20T21:24:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/19/professor-bernanke-again/#comment-18625 |
| I hope you are right, very much so! | 2013-06-20T21:23:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/19/professor-bernanke-again/#comment-18624 |
| Everything is changing. People are taking their comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke. - Will Rogers |
2013-06-17T13:19:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/17/funny-is-more-fun/#comment-18600 |
| You're trapped in a room with a tiger, a rattlesnake and a spammer. You have a gun with two bullets. What should you do? You shoot the spammer. Twice. |
2013-06-17T02:16:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/17/funny-is-more-fun/#comment-18596 |
| Yes, I have to do that part of it - how the next generation gets control of government and reforms it. That is going to be critical. | 2013-06-15T23:35:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18583 |
| I think if I made a list of all the reforms I have suggested I would look like a total nut! :-) But there is a political platform in there somewhere. There has to be a better way to run a government than we have now, yes. And all of that is important. I think that once the next generation gets a bit more power and/or the next cycle starts we will have a better shot at reform than we have now - there is far too much fear driving people on both sides to think into the future. | 2013-06-14T18:48:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18571 |
| Certainly, we can't blame the elderly for the situation that has developed. Dealing with the wave of retirements is going to be a challenge, yes, but it's also a great opportunity - and that's what we have been trying to uncover here. It turns out that the US is not seeing its population age as rapidly as many other nations and there is still going to be some population growth through 2030, largely through immigration. That may even accelerate based on what we can see coming. So there is no reason to panic. However, we will have a lot of pressure and we are going to have to be very deliberate as to how we restructure our economy in this area if we're going to be able to take advantage of the opportunities. The political system we have now really does not allow that, yes. It is a big problem. |
2013-06-14T14:17:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18565 |
| We do have to reform how we pay for Social Security, yes. That is a very big deal and it will become a huge issue no matter what. I think Obamacare will help us manage the health care costs much better, even if it is a half-measure that keeps insurance companies far too much in the loop. Developing nations are a different animal, yes. I haven't thunk that through yet. What I will say is that Europe has a chance, just as we do, if they can get their act together. I wouldn't bet on that, however, but they might have all they need to muddle through. |
2013-06-14T01:19:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18561 |
| Ha! You can call me an optimist, but there are reasons to be positive in the next few years. We just have to survive the next 4-5, which are going to be tricky. One of the things I didn't get into (for space) is that this explains the high inflation of the 1970s - we're living through the Baby Boom life cycles as they dominate the demographics and the economy. I think there's a lot here that is not a surprise. I agree on reform - this is the time to do it, and we're not. I expect that when the next generation takes real power, at the start of the next cycle, we'll have more progress. That is important, yes. |
2013-06-14T01:17:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/14/a-coming-golden-age-really/#comment-18560 |
| So far that's three of us. Let's see how many more? :-) | 2013-06-12T02:09:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/12/credit-unions/#comment-18534 |
| That is a good rate. I agree, banks are pointless. | 2013-06-12T02:09:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/12/credit-unions/#comment-18533 |
| Your story on the Legislature is a bit sickening, but I think you hit on the real problem. Democrats are claiming a majority for the next generation, but we're not transferring power to that generation adequately at all. The old guard really has to start moving on quickly if we're going to keep up the enthusiasm that surprised all the "experts" in 2012. Young people are engaged and are voting in big numbers, as are traditional minorities. The various Hispanic groups are proving to be pretty good citizens lately and are very interested in claiming their share of power. If we let them down we will miss out on a big opportunity. Having said it that way, big, systemic overhauls HAVE to be in the works - either because this new generation has achieved its share or at least to keep them engaged. The tired old left just isn't doing the job. The US Senate and the inability to get past cloture is emblematic of the left all the way down, and that's chilling to me. Privacy may be the thing that breaks open the party, at least I hope it is. If we succeed in pushing this one aside I think we may lose a LOT of young people forever. That would be unbelievably stupid. To think we might lose a golden opportunity over this makes me sick. |
2013-06-11T15:40:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18518 |
| I suppose you are right. I long ago realized that Obama was not with me on the one issue I cared about - a "New Deal" that would restructure the economy. I have assumed he was at least OK on the other stuff that was way down my list. Apparently, that wasn't true at all. It's been a rather shallow administration full of half-measures and a lot of "muddle through". That the Intelligence-Security-Complex rolled right through that really isn't a surprise, no. I just hoped there was better in there somewhere - and trusted his appointees more than him. So what do we all do about it? That's the real question. The way Feinstein talks I can see that even if the Dems take things over in 2014 or 2016 there is no guarantee that we won't just have more and more of the same. |
2013-06-10T18:19:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18508 |
| We do have a problem. No one trusts the government this much, at least not anyone I know. | 2013-06-10T14:40:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18504 |
| A "Right to Privacy" Amendment is a good idea, but amendments are very tricky. Let's see what gets started. | 2013-06-10T14:40:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18503 |
| I don't know exactly what it takes to put a stop to this. It has too many friends in Congress to end suddenly. We have to make a lot of noise, maybe march on Washington in an angry mob way bigger than anything they have ever seen before. | 2013-06-10T14:39:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18502 |
| Several points are very important here, and I think I agree with you on all of them. One is that Obama has to be responsible for this, simply because he is the one in charge. The real problem is a defense/NSA/Security establishment that is simply out of control and bent on expanding itself, not just perpetuating. That existed before Obama, but he has not done anything to reign it in as he promised. It appears it is indeed getting worse instead. We have to hold him accountable for that. I cannot understand why he would support this machine, but he seems if anything to be afraid of it - even captive by it. We can't have that. Someone has to be in charge, and if Obama can't do it for whatever reason we have to find someone else. This may be my big issue in 2016, especially if the economy keeps improving slowly. Secondly, that this stuff is technically "legal" is not a cause to relax, but quite the opposite. I can't believe that we have authorized such broad surveillance. It has to stop, but being "legal" makes that much harder. Lastly, the court review of this has been minimal at best because no one is challenging it - due in part to the gag orders that accompany all the data gathering. That was what bothered Snowden the most, and he's right. Disclosure is the best guarantee of our rights, and without it we have no chance at all. My biggest fear is that the Supreme Court would say this is OK and that there is no "Right to privacy". That upsets everything from Roe v Wade to a lot of basic checks on the police that we have come to rely on to defend our rights. What I think matters most is the mainstream press having this discussion. I hope that keeps up for a long time. I doubt people will be comfortable with this stuff once they know about it, and they will demand change. |
2013-06-10T14:16:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18497 |
| Exactly. We don't have an implicit "right to privacy", but one has been interpreted by courts as an obvious conclusion from the Fourth Amendment. A different court might not find it so obvious. Right now, such a "right" is being challenged rather seriously. |
2013-06-10T03:59:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18493 |
| It always gets crazy this time of year. We'll see how it goes in another month. | 2013-06-10T01:05:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/07/the-livin-is-queasy/#comment-18491 |
| I will right now! :-) | 2013-06-10T01:04:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/07/the-livin-is-queasy/#comment-18490 |
| That's easy. Going after Obama as a policy was wrong, and Benghazi played itself out long ago. There may be something in the IRS scandal, and I admitted that the AP scandal was very important - for the reasons outlined here. The Obama Administration probably did NOT break any laws at all - and that is the problem. The Patriot Act gave insanely broad power to his administration just like the last one, and that is very wrong. Going after junk like Benghazi just makes it much harder to go after the real scandals - it's crying "wolf!" This one is a very big deal. And everyone is to blame. It's different than those other things that were being invented - and they were a pointless distraction from big deals like this. |
2013-06-10T01:03:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18489 |
| Good call on free association - that is another very powerful argument. A lot of our rights are not in the Constitution directly, but have been interpreted by courts over many years. The Right to Privacy is one of them - and it comes from the Fourth Amendment. I agree that he is a patriot - he was willing to give up a comfortable life to fight for our most cherished values. |
2013-06-10T01:00:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/10/reasonable-expectation-of-privacy/#comment-18488 |
| Exactly! We don't want to owe everything to the banks. That's really what our problem is right now. We talked before about how to get out of that problem - this piece is how to avoid getting into it. Japan is going headlong into a pretty bad mess if they aren't careful, and there is pressure on a lot of nations to follow them. I hope we can all find another way. | 2013-06-05T01:43:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/05/this-time-really-is-different/#comment-18446 |
| I wasn't thinking of North Korea, no, but it does seem like it now that you mention it. No nation does this today and the result really is isolation. It's hard to imagine. WTO sanctions are a real kiss of death. That is what changed. | 2013-06-05T01:17:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/05/this-time-really-is-different/#comment-18444 |
| You are right, that is the real problem. Borrowing a lot of money leaves the government very vulnerable and makes sustainable progress much more difficult. There is a lot more to say on that, yes! | 2013-06-05T01:16:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/05/this-time-really-is-different/#comment-18443 |
| I won't disagree at all ... well, with the Paul Ryan part. Yes, the velocity of money is very important - and the more in the hands of people who need it the faster it goes through the economy. But you can't goose things artificially forever - there has to be some real equity built into the economy. Consider what Brazil has done since 1994. They are still a leftist, almost socialist nation. But they are doing it right now! They have sustainable growth that is lifting the nation out of poverty. It's not always as even as they want, and they have a lot to work on, but the path is pretty clear. There isn't really a left/right argument here, nor is there a rich/poor argument. I'm trying to work a short/long term give and take instead. | 2013-06-05T01:02:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/05/this-time-really-is-different/#comment-18440 |
| It is a very different world - inside a nation is one thing, outside is another. Everyone is thinking about both at the same time here, but all politics is first and foremost local. What happens if Japan has to default and/or the Yen really does turn into toilet paper? That's what "collapse" is, and I don't know that anyone has thought that through to the end. I'm starting to think you guys are right about cheap electronics - it doesn't affect us at all. |
2013-06-03T16:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/03/you-were-worried-about-china/#comment-18419 |
| I think you are right on, except it's more than cars. The growth is in the developing world, and they want to be positioned to take advantage of that. You guys are making me think a bit more and I appreciate that. A lot! | 2013-06-03T16:34:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/03/you-were-worried-about-china/#comment-18418 |
| I am thinking a lot more about this, and there is much more to say. I'll balance this out with a more global perspective once it's been thunk out a bit. :-) | 2013-06-03T16:33:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/03/you-were-worried-about-china/#comment-18417 |
| Perhaps I am over-stating the problem, but for the US we have to be worried about the worst-case scenario. I don't think it affects us outside of that - but that worst-case is pretty bad. I'd like to see more manufacturing here, as I've said, but that's going to be very difficult. Cars may indeed become cheaper as the Yen drops. Korea has to respond, too, so we will just wait and see. Exports are going to be more expensive, yes, but a lot of what we export are agricultural products that nations rely on to feed their people so they may not be affected as much. |
2013-06-03T13:49:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/06/03/you-were-worried-about-china/#comment-18412 |
| aurorawatcherak, I can tell you are sincere, so I will give you a sincere reply. If there is anything to these, you have to realize that the policy of pursuing Obama as a distraction from internal lack of cohesion is a hindrance to getting the truth out, not a help. If you have not read my piece here and followed the links (I do try to provide the most original documents I can) please do, because this is a very serious problem - especially if you think these are worth pursuing. Again, I think the AP Scandal has a LOT of merit for pursuing, and I hope it is fully vetted in both congress and the press. The IRS one also needs more investigation, although there are no signs that the White House had anything to do with it - but they still require oversight on a constant basis and even the appearance of a breach of faith is a serious problem for that agency. Benghazi I would leave aside. Once the faked emails were leaked, that one was over with. We can't take any of it seriously no matter what. My main point remains - a policy of pursuing scandals does no one any good. It is not a substitute for a budget, as one example - and the policy outlined makes it clear that it may come down to that. Such a trade-off should never be an issue. | 2013-05-31T21:47:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18397 |
| That is my feeling precisely. It's a practical matter more than anything. I consider this the only viable alternative to an actual socialized plan. | 2013-05-31T18:43:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18393 |
| I have not said much about this because it's such a hybrid half measure it was never clear to me how it would function. Seeing the big insurers do what they were supposed to makes me think it will indeed work now. The incentives are in the right places, apparently. We will see, I agree. But the most challenging part appears to be working properly. Whew! |
2013-05-31T15:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18389 |
| I'll take these in the order I want to: First of all, my main contention is that scandal investigations have become a matter of policy for political reasons in the US House, and that is ridiculous. As written about earlier, the memo is very explicit about this and why the Republicans need to do it. If you have a real matter to investigate, you might be more worried about crying "wolf". The AP Scandal is a very real one for many reasons. Was the AP raid retaliation? That's a very serious charge, and we can't say on that. Was it legal? The laws as we have them say so, but are they really constitutional? Being a 1st Amendment issue, I think this is indeed worth a lot of airtime - even if the administration did nothing wrong. Benghazi - a major screw-up that has rightly been investigated and changes made. Falsifying emails to make it look like more is ridiculous. There is nothing more here. IRS - there is no evidence that anyone outside of Cincinatti had anything to do with the extra scrutiny, if there even was any applied to specific political groups in the end. Only one application was denied, and that was for a liberal group. This is far from a serious scandal, but it may well be worth investigating. Keeping the IRS even-handed is very important - but to imply that the White House had anything to do with this is absurd. Obamacare - there is no evidence that this will "bankrupt the nation", and there is considerable evidence growing every day that it will do just the opposite. You want to bet against me here, fine, but I'm quite sure you are wrong. Again, the stated policy of using scandals to keep attention away from in-party divisions in the US House is the real issue I have at this point. If one of these is indeed serious, such as the AP one, it is being buried in partisan politics. And you can't blame Obama alone for that. |
2013-05-31T15:01:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18388 |
| Thanks! | 2013-05-31T05:58:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/31/what-if-obamacare-works/#comment-18383 |
| Thank you! Or should I say, "merci beaucoup"? :-) Yes, I miss the days of the old raconteurs, they were a lot of fun. There used to be a lot of them, too. It was like you booked them to fill time on a gab show and you knew it'd be a lot of fun. No one knew why they were famous, sort of like Kardashians except with wit and brains. Those were good old days. Hey, teevee! Raconteur for hire here! Will work for cheap! :-) |
2013-05-30T21:48:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18379 |
| It's pretty rare in the US, but quite common in the UK. This is meant to be a reference post, we'll see how it holds up. | 2013-05-30T01:46:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18373 |
| Ah, yes, nom de plume - meant to include that with nom de guerre, but it was lost in editing. I will make the change to haute couture - thanks! |
2013-05-30T01:45:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18372 |
| I have been wanting to do this for a long time. I do think someone had to. :-) | 2013-05-30T01:44:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18371 |
| Thanks! | 2013-05-30T01:44:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/29/gentlemens-french/#comment-18370 |
| I think that is the key. They can't do everything, but they do so much so well. We can't always rely on that as heavily as we do - it costs us so much in lives and money. | 2013-05-27T18:31:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/27/memorial-day-3/#comment-18353 |
| Yes! | 2013-05-27T18:30:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/27/memorial-day-3/#comment-18352 |
| It is not the only way to solve inequality, far from it. The balance of power between boards and shareholders is a critical issue here. There does not seem to be much power among shareholders, and they are largely incapable of organizing. I would start there when considering executive pay. | 2013-05-26T00:02:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18345 |
| I am thinking about this, and you do have a point. It would mean that everyone associated with the bank has nothing to gain from excessive risks, which is not a bad way to go IHMO. I have long favored what I said before but it does give some out to investors and lower level employees. Dunno. Thanks! | 2013-05-24T21:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/22/bank-regulation-that-makes-sense/#comment-18338 |
| I don't know why this isn't featured more prominently. But they all have their agendas. | 2013-05-24T20:53:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/24/the-scandal-of-scandals/#comment-18337 |
| We will get through it - they can't keep this up too much longer. Remember, they are worried about their own implosion and want to put it off as long as they can. It won't work. There's a budget to get out. | 2013-05-24T16:22:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/24/the-scandal-of-scandals/#comment-18334 |
| Thanks. I listed my news sources in links, relying on mainstream sources when reasonable. The Heritage letter is a blog associated with NBC, for example. What is Bachmann doing? Her appeal has always been to her people, so I can't really say - I don't know them. She's also a terrible narcissist IMHO, so it may just be an appeal to herself. It doesn't make any sense to keep fighting old battles like this, so she can have at it. |
2013-05-24T13:44:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/24/the-scandal-of-scandals/#comment-18330 |
| Thanks for the comment! The problem with a law saying we won't bail out is that it's possible to imagine a scenario where everything fails and we should bail out banks. Even so, there's no reason that the institution might remain but nearly everyone is gone - some of them to jail. The lack of action in the House is a serious problem, and it's something I will be talking about in the next post (if indirectly). The politics there is simply poisonous. |
2013-05-23T20:08:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/22/bank-regulation-that-makes-sense/#comment-18321 |
| It could yet happen. Anything can happen. The politics is good - if nothing else, this might be the setup for bigger victories yet to come, even if this bill doesn't make it. | 2013-05-23T02:24:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/22/bank-regulation-that-makes-sense/#comment-18315 |
| Thanks! I think the reason for having large banks carry more capital is that they can't be bailed out like a smaller bank can, at least not without draining the treasury, so it has to be made less likely. In turns "Too big to fail" back onto the market. I'd like to know more about your feelings on the rest of the regulation. I know these bills are hard to read, but this one is short. | 2013-05-22T01:12:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/22/bank-regulation-that-makes-sense/#comment-18304 |
| Yes, but we are rather far from being Vulcan. :-) Just a little respect for others would go a long way, IMHO. That's all I ask for. | 2013-05-20T20:08:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18282 |
| Thanks! There's so much going on it's very hard to keep track of - especially with any context at all. | 2013-05-20T19:35:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18280 |
| I am still optimistic, but only because Latin America is taking off. My bet is that they will fill in the gaps for us left as Europe collapses - and they will keep collapsing from what I can tell. Japan is way trickier, if only because of the currency war. If everyone in Asia starts lowering their currency we will NEVER get our manufacturing in gear! So there are serious threats, yes, but internally we are doing very well. The sequester is still soaking in, but I think it was indeed overblown. I'm watching the same things as before. |
2013-05-20T15:17:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18277 |
| Yes, there has been a lot of garbage. But Japan and Europe are very real threats. | 2013-05-20T15:05:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18276 |
| I'll have to read what Krugman said - but offhand I do agree. The free market takes care of everything in the long run, but it can do it in a nasty way. The more we are paying attention to what the markets are telling us the more we can ease the transitions - and maybe, just maybe, guide them. People do still like to shop - get out of the house, see and be scene. It's impossible to tell just where the line is going to be for online, but my bet is that any non-personal mass produced item is fair game. These include books, appliances, and all the stuff Amazon does. Clothes seem iffy at best, for example. What about jewelry, ala the etsy model? Man, I just don't know. It's all still very much shaking out. |
2013-05-20T14:43:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/20/may-you-live-in-interesting-times/#comment-18273 |
| There will be at least months, if not years, of chaos and a complete collapse of major trades like construction that rely on credit. Many banks could fail as well. It will the second coming of the Great Depression no matter how it goes down. We have to hope it does not happen. |
2013-05-19T20:25:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/17/the-euro-forced-marriage/#comment-18266 |
| Thank you for your response. I hope that you are correct. I also hope Euroskeptics can add to the conversation necessary to make this happen. They may have some very good advice that will make whatever new union results even stronger. | 2013-05-17T20:19:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/17/the-euro-forced-marriage/#comment-18252 |
| This has been going on since Greece "revealed" what everyone knew - they had been fudging the books - back in late 2009. So it's been 3.5 years of one crisis after the other. I would put the odds of Euro breakup pretty high right now, about a coin toss of 50/50. There are so many things that can tip it, but a popular uprising is the one that I think is the most dangerous for the Euro. I'll be watching the Alternative for Germany to see how much ground they make. I think that's the biggest threat to the Euro now. The politicians in place now will do just about anything to preserve the Euro. The biggest other threat is a major bank collapse - which also seems more probable than it should. Of course, I'm just a guy on the wrong side of the Atlantic reading a lot of scary news reports. I'd love to hear from my European readers (and I know you are out there!) |
2013-05-17T15:31:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/17/the-euro-forced-marriage/#comment-18244 |
| Thank you! | 2013-05-16T01:32:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18230 |
| Thank you! | 2013-05-15T03:17:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18220 |
| It's a positive day! And I want to keep up the momentum. Gary Schiff has the same feeling, I saw. What next? | 2013-05-15T03:01:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18218 |
| Thank you for your additions. Yes, this will take us a long time to work out of. I agree on shareholder activism, but there have to be ways to build a stronger tradition. Executive pay is way out of line by any measure, and over the long haul there is no way to fix it other than a better balance of power between shareholders and board. Exactly what should be done? I don't know, but if I was in some kind of power I'd sure ask a lot of questions in this area. I think we agree on the rest - tax all income equally but progressively and a lot of this will work out over the very long haul. |
2013-05-15T02:04:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18213 |
| Bachmann claimed she started this fight, but I don't think that's really true. Fun to think about, though. :-) Yes, there is tremendous momentum and that is part of the issue. That has a lot to do with how the cynical plan was a rather stupid one. But the issue still could have lost in relatively conservative Minnesota all the same without a good fight. |
2013-05-15T00:31:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18210 |
| I really don't see the difference, and I'm with Sheryl on this. It's about the rights that a couple has through their contractual partnership. | 2013-05-15T00:29:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/15/good-fight/#comment-18209 |
| Yes, we should have been paying more attention. I'm wondering what we should have been paying attention to, though. You know I love to find simple measures that seem to correlate with bigger picture trends, but I can't find anything that expresses the balance between return from investment versus return on equity in a way that makes sense. |
2013-05-13T19:23:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18197 |
| Everyone is surviving with connections and some kind of break from friends. We have really closed down as a society. Networking is great for the individual but overall it makes class rising and so on much harder. | 2013-05-13T17:21:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18195 |
| I really expected more Hell than I'm getting. :-) Studies have been done on how free trade supresses wages, and I will try to see if there is something that is really useful for this. My gut has always told me that the strong dollar has a huge effect on this, given that we've been running 10-20% over purchasing power parity for 30 years. So there are a TON of other effects going on here, of course. But I think the narrative that we spent 30 years absorbing a historic shift in the workforce, only to have a cyclical downturn hit just as we were fully normalizing that shift, is a compelling story IMHO. Granted, a lot of policy changes (as I outlined before) can mitigate many of these effect, and I'm starting to think that paying attention to the relative value of labor vs capital is crutial. And yes, the needs of Social Security in the future will HAVE to come from a uniform tax on all income, not just earned (and especially not just the first $110k). This is a big deal, but it will become obvious sometime after 2020 for sure. I think we need to move that direction now. |
2013-05-13T17:20:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18194 |
| Yesterday's "productivity gains" are today's "unemployment", for sure. And it is sad that we have a government that is not in any way looking out for the poor - even the simplest things have become hard. | 2013-05-13T17:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18193 |
| An excellent question on immigration reform. I doubt it brings anywhere near as many people into the workforce as this - we're talking here about a rise of 7% of the population or about 21M people. That clearly had a big role in depressing wages in the 1890s, for example, but I don't see it happening that big today. I will look into it, though. | 2013-05-13T17:11:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18192 |
| This will be a great program - there are any examples and Peace Coffee is just one. I like how your brand loyalty shows - that's the value of this. Authenticity is going to be the hallmark if social media can get over allowing so much phoniness! | 2013-05-13T01:23:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/10/building-an-economy-on-purpose/#comment-18184 |
| It's very consistent, isn't it? That was the start of the secular bear market and a very clear inflection point by any standard. Things started to change at that point. What makes this a "Managed Depression" is that the Fed and the US Government started running a lot of different stimuli to keep things moving, but only inflated a bubble in the process. I think history is very much going to see 2000 as the turning point in nearly every respect, yes. Note also that the previous cycles were 1965-1983 (the "Summer" or stagflation doldrums stage) and 1983-2000 (the "Autumn" or high growth bull market. This "Winter" did start around 2000, but should end around 2017 and maybe as late as 2020. The inequality has been a feature of the last 3 "seasons" and should reverse with the next "Spring". Fascinating stuff, isn't it? This is what I want to write the book about. :-) | 2013-05-13T01:17:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18183 |
| I do expect to catch Hell for this, but I can't see this any other way. Workplace equity was inevitable so I don't see any point in arguing it, but a dramatic increase in the population working has to put downward pressure on real wages over that same time - and I think that's what we see. As for the future, I don't know that it is bright unless we learn how to manage a large pool of retirees. Progressive taxes to support Social Security are starting to look absolutely essential by about 2020. If we can manage through that, we'll be OK. The way things sit right now we can't even think about something that intelligent coming out of Congress. |
2013-05-13T01:07:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/13/retiring-inequality/#comment-18181 |
| A dumb mistake, and it is now corrected. So no one has an excuse to miss out on this summit! It will be great! | 2013-05-10T19:23:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/10/building-an-economy-on-purpose/#comment-18151 |
| Ha! There is only one time on this planet worth knowing, and it is Greenwich Mean Time, aka UTC aka Zulu. Midnight is at 7PM Central Daylight Time, so the Barataria "day" starts then. :-) I firmly believe that one planet needs only one time - and the rest are just numbers. |
2013-05-10T02:27:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/10/building-an-economy-on-purpose/#comment-18141 |
| I will let you know! (it's what I do, fergooshsakes) I agree that as a truly free market is about people's values, what they value has a net translation into $$$ that should never be ignored. And yes, you can't fake it - at least not forever. Social media is opening up genuine transparency and that should lead to authenticity (sometimes it's pretty thin, but we're working on it). There is a lot of value added through that and it should show. | 2013-05-10T02:26:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/10/building-an-economy-on-purpose/#comment-18140 |
| I think this can all be accomplished with a simpler tax code, yes, although making all savings deductible is a complication. | 2013-05-09T17:16:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18132 |
| I was thinking about talking about socialism (transfer payments! That's the new word!) but left that out. We're accused of that enough without it being real. :-) | 2013-05-09T04:07:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18125 |
| An excellent point, thanks! | 2013-05-09T04:03:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18123 |
| Yes, that would be the best way to reduce employee overhead! I can think of a few pieces I didn't link to inside of this one, and one of them was on the idea that there is a basic overhead of life. Health care is part of that. How employers got stuck with that tab is mind blowing. | 2013-05-09T04:02:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18122 |
| It is a hard topic. I don't think that you can legislate away problems that are deep in the culture, and given how people really don't care about this topic it's not going to go away. We can help on the margins, and we should do what we can, but the big problem is one of culture and attitude, IMHO. | 2013-05-09T04:01:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/08/fixing-income-inequality/#comment-18121 |
| Fair enough, but I am still hoping for productive, engaged conservatives. Perhaps I should be getting the message out harder among the left - for us it's easier to talk about a "New Deal". | 2013-05-06T14:58:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18097 |
| I like Ferguson's approach, but he does seem to slap his books together. Makes me think I should be doing the same. :-) My biggest problem with him is that he doesn't seem to provide a way out. Granted, that is the hard part and it takes a lot of politics to get us to that point, so it's not fair to ask him to solve everything. But he does provide only a different way of looking at things. I do want the left to engage this kind of debate. He is a true "conservative", taking the long view. It seems far more refreshing to me than the expediency of neo-cons (are there any left?) and tea party types. |
2013-05-06T14:04:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18094 |
| No, I don't think he does use "restructuring" directly. But he is talking about rebuilding the institutions that make the system work, which is the same thing in my book. His take is different from mine, yes. In the links back you can see that I started by talking about structural unemployment and moved on to regulatory structures that are outdated, etc. But they are all roughly the same thing in the sense that they are part of a "New Deal" that is essential. And yes, I tend to focus more on immediate policy matters as part of that (given that we are in a crisis). I'm looking for any progress towards an understanding of the long view, and I found some. I fully expect flak from my fellow lefties, especially given what a flawed personality Niall Ferguson is. But I have never cared about personalities, etc, and only care about ideas - and how they make their way through the various forms of media present today. I hope this type of thinking catches on. |
2013-05-06T03:43:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18089 |
| On regulation, Ferguson is indeed against complex regulation, wrong regulation, and especially uneven enforcement - that is his point. As for lawyers, Ferguson makes the same point you do. I think he's far too hawkish on austerity myself and have made that point very clearly in previous posts. As for his ridiculous homophobic comment, it was terrible and he said so himself pretty much immediately (which is what I linked to). My point remains that someone, finally, is talking about a complete social, political, and legal restructuring. My ideal person to do it? No, I don't think so. But I don't know of anyone else who is attempting to address all of these issues simultaneously as symptoms of a general rot at our core - which I do believe that it is. There is a lot of room to disagree with his conclusions, but conservatives who argue from his perspective are far more productive than the usual nonsense we spend time arguing. I think it's vital that we on the left engage that debate and promote it. Besides, I think we'll ultimately win most of these points, too. |
2013-05-06T03:29:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18087 |
| I agree with that. I'm just happy that the conversation appears to finally be going strong. Perhaps the talk about investment opportunities in restructuring is going to be more fruitful? | 2013-05-06T02:23:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/06/restructuring-revisited/#comment-18085 |
| I'll take these in reverse order. Using the S&P500 by itself was a bit dubious, and you are correct that this excludes dividends. A true index fund would include them, so that was a mistake. The return is a bit higher than listed. As for starting from the peak in 2000, there is a very good reason to to this. We are in a secular bear market, which is a long term trend. Within this trend there are cyclical peaks and valleys, but the overall trend remains more or less intact. When did the trend start? At the inflection point, which is going to be a peak. It's well explained here using DJIA charts not S&P500, but the results are about the same http://seekingalpha.com/article/1102171-where-are-we-in-the-secular-bear-market This aligns very well with the way the overall economy has been moving since that time, and the market has been reflecting a definite contraction in the private economy over the last 13 years. We've talked about that many times here, particular with regard to K-Waves or longer economic cycles. |
2013-05-04T20:12:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/01/buy-in-may-let-it-play/#comment-18070 |
| I do understand, and that part is not going to change overnight. In fact, there really is no change in the message at all between Benedict and Francis - just the delivery vehicle. My point is less about the church and more about the need for leadership on this issue. How about this - if Francis' message hits the mainstream and is repeated I'll be happy - that's what I'm interested in. |
2013-05-03T14:58:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/03/urbi-et-tweeti/#comment-18062 |
| That is a good point - it's always one thing to complain, it's another to envision. That was the lesson of the campaign to oust Pinochet in Chile that I wrote about a little bit ago. Suicide rates are worth looking into, thanks. This is what happens when opportunities close down in a society built around things like following your dreams, etc. What kind of life are we creating? What chances do the young - and the old - really have? It's a very competitive and selfish world right now. I would very much like to see that change. But to what? |
2013-05-03T14:01:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/03/urbi-et-tweeti/#comment-18060 |
| "One cannot worship both God and Mammon" :-) | 2013-05-03T13:58:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/03/urbi-et-tweeti/#comment-18059 |
| Thank you very much! I was expecting great things from Francis, and so far I am not disappointed. It's more about showing the world, especially those of us who care about equity and poverty and unemployment, what leadership looks like. | 2013-05-03T00:38:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/03/urbi-et-tweeti/#comment-18042 |
| It very much is. I think I'm the only person who found this funny, at least in a dark way. On the face of it, this advice seems pretty twisted. | 2013-05-02T12:01:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/01/buy-in-may-let-it-play/#comment-18024 |
| I thought you would like that. :-) It is a strange reason, isn't it? Besides, how long has it been since the place wasn't rigged? | 2013-05-01T03:22:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/01/buy-in-may-let-it-play/#comment-18017 |
| I'll go with the last part, but I do think this run has a lot more steam in it. Then again, this is the third time the S&P has been at this level in 13 years, and the last two ended rather badly. | 2013-05-01T02:42:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/05/01/buy-in-may-let-it-play/#comment-18015 |
| Update - Consumer Confidence rebounded in April to 68.1, and March was revised up to 60.4. Based on that upward revision alone, I'm calling a 3-0-1 record on 1Q13, but it looks very good for a 4-0 through the second quarter as housing is remaining strong! http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/30/us-usa-economy-confidence-idUSBRE93T0OP20130430 | 2013-04-30T17:39:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-18008 |
| Yes, I agree we are in a superior position to Europe in just about every way - and the one way we are behind you point out well that it's an opportunity if we get our act together. Imagine linking everything together - it's something I've called for before. It's been a long time since I wrote about it, but the need for fast freight systems is easily demonstrated. I also think it's important to note how containerized cargo is almost as important as the internet in fueling the new economy that is being created. I like how you think of this as an opportunity to get people back to work, that's the kind of thinking we should have. Yes, talking about tax cuts here or there to "stimulate" is total BS by comparison! | 2013-04-30T17:26:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-18007 |
| Yes to all, except the EU is about the same size we are. :-) But look at how things are going between these two giants that make up nearly half the world - we are in great shape by comparison! We are not doing all that badly - but we do have to watch things. That's not a terrible position to be in, at least compared with the rest of the developed world. Look at Japan - Yeesh! The belief that government spending is a drag is ludicrous when taken to the extreme, yes, and we have to counter that. There are forms of government spending that are clearly beneficial and/or we are way low on, such as infrastructure. It's clear that an organized health plan of some kind HAS to be an improvement over what we do now. Yes, there are some things we can argue about, but there always are - we have been thrown to the silly side of so many otherwise reasonable disagreements! |
2013-04-30T16:41:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-18005 |
| Absolutely - we have our way as the people who print the world's currency. But that is indeed coming to an end, if slowly, as we reported here a year ago and the effects are just starting to take hold. I think it's time to look back into it, thanks for the reminder. And I've long been a supporter of a global currency as a reference, too. What would that do to us? It would sure end the party. But I am sure that is coming no matter what. Until then, we get to do pretty much what we want. I think it's best to be prudent - and we are in far better shape than most developed nations already. Makes you wonder given our Congress, eh? | 2013-04-30T01:17:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17994 |
| I have written about inequality and how it affects growth several times, most recently last week in Inequality vs Sustainable Growth. But this has always left me cold because the main arguments are based on regression lines across national boundaries and/or time. I have been trying to find a good argument as to why this would be the case, and the traditional arguments for sustainable growth based on savings rates, etc, really don't hold up well. This came to me while reading about the underground economy and how well it is doing. So yes, this is my little attempt at a contribution to the arguments. It's partially baked at this point, so I would appreciate any additions people might have. That's a lot of what we do here in Barataria. :-) | 2013-04-29T21:52:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17991 |
| The article you are thinking about is this one: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/productivity-overrated-as-key-to-growth-report-says/article10961267/ I recommend it highly. This was shared on the Barataria facebook page (like-link on the right!) which I hope everyone likes for all kinds of updates, including news stories I run into that I want to share with all of you! I am making a left-wing Keynesian counter to the standard right-wing debt cycle theory. There is room for both, as you know I believe, but there is clearly an effect in play here. |
2013-04-29T21:47:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17990 |
| I am sure you are right. We are all just speculating here at this point, and it's no substitute for a real study of velocity vs income level. It would be very helpful because it would point to some specific government action, I think. The crashing velocity of the dollar is the biggest problem the Fed faces. | 2013-04-29T21:41:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17988 |
| You're right, we should separate out those two. The velocity of money for poor people has to be around 12, which is to say a month's income goes out in a month - if it isn't higher! | 2013-04-29T16:02:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17984 |
| That number came from Prof. Feige at UW, and he has been following it for years. I trust him, but would still like to see more of his methodology. I will get that to you when I get a chance. I agree that if anything it may be low. The best article on the topic is at the New Yorker: http://www.newyorker.com/talk/financial/2013/04/29/130429ta_talk_surowiecki I think that most of the people in this agree with you that it could be higher, which would be something incredible. |
2013-04-29T16:01:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17983 |
| Yes, that is part of the reason I am sure. Food Stamps did become a currency, trading at a discount to face value. It's amazing what "money" becomes when you don't have enough of the greenstuff! | 2013-04-29T14:31:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17980 |
| Thank you! I came to me today while working on something else. A little math on the question of the underground economy and it became obvious that the velocity was at least double the whole economy. | 2013-04-29T01:22:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/29/cheers-for-the-underground-economy/#comment-17977 |
| Changing everything may be the key to getting a new budget together, actually. A whole new system is not a bad idea. I can think of a lot of other ways to improve things, including "zero base" or sunsetting everything in rotation every so many years (5?) and examining them closely. And being able to actually, get this, audit the Pentagon. But these all seem like fantasies until someone actually gets in there and starts trying to make a difference. | 2013-04-27T19:23:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/26/a-capital-idea/#comment-17967 |
| I'm still not really for a balanced budget amendment, but I can imagine one based around this separation, yes. We would still need a procedure for big-ticket expenses such as war, TARP-like situations, and the potential bailout of GM or something (although, if we get stock, it's easily justified as a capital expense anyway). I could imagine a procedure where a supermajority is needed along with the President's assent on a separate bill with no other provisions, for example. So yes, we could go there. I wasn't planning on that, however. :-) |
2013-04-26T18:26:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/26/a-capital-idea/#comment-17962 |
| It's very rare that anyone talks about having a real capital budget. The only thing I could find was that Brookings piece from 2008. So no, it won't get done at this rate. | 2013-04-26T17:19:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/26/a-capital-idea/#comment-17960 |
| Thanks! But there must be more to it than separating out capital and ordinary expenses. I don’t know if you’ve even tried to make sense of the budget, but are there other practices that you think are necessary? | 2013-04-26T01:04:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/26/a-capital-idea/#comment-17951 |
| I don't see anything wrong with running a "deficit" for the purpose of bonding for capital items - the way every state does it. It is not clear to me how much we spend on capital items right now, but my guess is that it's a couple hundred bil at most. So I would say that moving towards balance WHILE we change how we budget to separate out capital and expenses and investing in infrastructure is going to be possible. So I'd raise taxes through major simplification and reform while cutting a lot from the military to pay for it all. The idea is that infrastructure will help the economy so much that every $1 spent on that can have the same beneficial effects of several dollars of military spending. |
2013-04-25T00:13:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17934 |
| I think declining labor participation is probably the key - tax cuts for the wealthy didn't hit until the 80s and the process was well under way by then (to my surprise, frankly). It is an amazing fact of the last ... well, my entire life. I do think that economies are pretty heavily designed - they are a broad social agreement that is influenced by a lot of things. One "agreement" we seem to have institutionalized is the supply-side theory - that money for investment is so very important and worth more or less subsidizing. Cheap capital and socialized risk are hardly ever questioned, at least not in any big way! Equality has simply not made its way into our discussion for a long time. So yes, this is all planned in a certain sense - it reflects the values we hold as a people. Thank you for your contribution, you have me thinking a lot more. I will look into the Phillips, he has done some great stuff I've read in the past. (Barataria is a community effort and I really can't say how much I appreciate how you guys get me thinking about the next piece!) |
2013-04-24T18:37:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17931 |
| Thanks, you are right! I should be looking at disposable income and savings. Those are the key indicators for sustainable growth, I'll bet. As Dan said, I've been a bit too macro lately and it's time to focus on more personal things. Excellent way of looking at it! | 2013-04-24T15:03:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17927 |
| We do need another FDR - and / or a revolution. This cannot continue. And people will have to be engaged to make it happen, one way or the other. | 2013-04-24T05:13:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17918 |
| It is a matter of leadership, and I hope to provide some small measure of it here. It's not a moral issue as much as it is a practical issue - how do we provide good, sustainable growth? That's what I think government is about. And yes, infrastructure is a big part of that! | 2013-04-24T05:12:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/24/inequality-vs-sustainable-growth/#comment-17917 |
| This is a very good point. Note that a very simple request got the spreadsheet without any fuss at all. Why was this not done before? The implications of works published by economists are at least as important as anything in natural science, if not moreso - they tend to affect policy, and do it rather quickly. I hope things are changing. Thank you for your comment, this is very important. |
2013-04-23T14:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17911 |
| I largely agree with that. I call this a "restructuring", which is to say that we have to build a new economy more or less from scratch. One feature of Depressions historically (this is about the 5th in US history) is that the economy that emerges is quite a bit different from the one that collapsed. I think we can expect that again. Note that half of the job growth is coming form companies with less than 50 employees. They are the driving engine of the future - they are doing something different. The restructuring is slow, but it's progressing. I see this ending around 2017, largely because each phase of the cycle lasts about as long as the previous and the last boom period was about 1983-2000. It looks like we are more or less on track for that year - barring another meltdown, of course. |
2013-04-23T01:50:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17908 |
| Thanks - yes, I don't want people to think debt is totally unimportant. It's all relative - and frankly right now private debt scares me a LOT more. It is about 4 times as big. | 2013-04-22T20:35:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17905 |
| The Koch Brothers really scare me. They have a very limited sense of reality, which probably comes from the fact that they inherited their money. | 2013-04-22T15:35:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17902 |
| I go between empathy for a bonehead move and a feeling that they stopped error-checking when they had the answer they wanted. We all do that, but ... in this case it's driven policy around the world. Not good. But yes, it's clear that excessive debt is a problem. I just don't like focusing exclusively on public debt - it's all bad. |
2013-04-22T15:34:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17901 |
| It does come back to jobs. I was challenged on facebook to look at sustainable growth, which is more equitable - and I accept that. Jobs are a big part of that sustainability - does everyone have work? Washingtoon? Bleh. The lax regulation is a big problem, yes, and part of a playing field that is not level by any means - and leads to disasters. |
2013-04-22T14:01:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17898 |
| They do go together. But yes, it is creating a society that is always paying the idle who have found themselves controlling the capital that is the problem. We see that in southern Europe right now, too. | 2013-04-22T13:59:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17897 |
| Thank you! | 2013-04-22T02:00:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/22/chrunching-the-numbers/#comment-17887 |
| Thank you! I am also always thinking of other measurements we hear about monthly to include, but this is what I found so far. I'm always open to suggestions! And yes, let's start holding all prognosticators to a high standard - anything else is just BS! |
2013-04-19T18:59:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-17867 |
| Thank you, Sheryl, that is the nicest thing anyone can say! I do try to take the long view, and I think it is important. | 2013-04-19T15:36:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-17864 |
| Thanks! This is a "restructuring" more than a "recovery" and the economy that is being created will be very different. It's being made by all those companies of 50 employees or less that are doing all the hiring - and may one day be the big companies. | 2013-04-19T03:50:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-17858 |
| Thanks! We are still on track for a 2017 end to this "Winter" or Depression period. I am assembling the eBook on the topic now - I think it should be a good one. But this all is the test to show that the progress is still moving ahead - and it is! | 2013-04-19T02:29:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/19/at-the-break-hometown-team-leads/#comment-17855 |
| I would hope the Republicans would learn how unpopular this group is and move appropriately. It's necessary, for sure - and for them as much as the nation. | 2013-04-18T03:36:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17850 |
| Yes, I am longing for the day that small banks, credit unions, et cetera band together and separate themselves from the pirates! That is what it will take. | 2013-04-18T03:34:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17849 |
| It has been going on for a very long time now, and the stakes do only get higher. It will take a revolt of some kind before anything changes, I am sure. | 2013-04-18T03:34:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17848 |
| Thanks! | 2013-04-17T11:35:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17843 |
| Yes, the Iceland example was very much how it has to be done - they nationalized their big banks, kicked everyone at the executive level out, and prosecuted a few of them. Our own FDIC is a pretty good model, too - they often kick out the whole executive ownership of a failed bank on Friday, recapitalize it, sell it, and open again on Monday. I opened with the Henry Ford quote for a reason - they really are just too much. The more anyone knows about the system the more you wanna revolution. The system has to have a way for banks to fail. It's the main way debt is forgiven on bad loans and everyone goes on with their lives. It's how we put economic bubbles and big hangovers in the past. I've said it here before and I'll say it again - I think it's gotten to the point where the sooner JP Morgan fails, the better. They are nothing but a drain on the real economy! I'd rather have Captain Henry Morgan, the pirate, get a federal guarantee on his plunder than give it to these bastards. |
2013-04-17T03:36:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17841 |
| It is. Smaller banks have to peel away from the rest of the industry and demand solid regulation that levels the playing field. | 2013-04-17T03:07:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/17/perhaps-a-revolt/#comment-17839 |
| I would never speculate on something I know nothing about. I only hope not too many people were killed or injured. | 2013-04-15T20:15:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17831 |
| Not at all. :-) | 2013-04-15T19:09:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17829 |
| But it has tradition on its side, and that counts for something. It's the first last haven in a panic. Does this mean the panic is over? I'll wait until it hits $1000 - which some of you think will be soon. :-) | 2013-04-15T19:09:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17828 |
| I was thinking about following gold, but I don't really know that it means a lot. There are so many external things going on. But seeing it fall can't be bad, that much I am sure of. | 2013-04-15T03:19:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17822 |
| I mostly agree, but unlike a normal bubble this one took 11 years of gradual inflation. It wasn't like bitcoin (which I left out of this piece on purpose!) There is a statement of confidence in this, I am sure. Where it winds up, I don't know. | 2013-04-15T02:07:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/15/gold-down-for-the-long-run/#comment-17819 |
| Dogs can't say very much - they just don't have the range. Maybe yours can say more, but mine is just a bit barky at times. :-) | 2013-04-12T19:06:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/12/cat-talk/#comment-17806 |
| I always thought it was his "name" for George, but you may be right. I have to use it away from George to see what happens - if I can say it right! | 2013-04-12T19:06:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/12/cat-talk/#comment-17805 |
| Tony is a great cat. I always say he's "The World's Most Perfect Cat (tm)", but there's a qualifier in there. The word "cat". :-) | 2013-04-12T02:04:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/12/cat-talk/#comment-17801 |
| Amen! :-) | 2013-04-11T00:10:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/10/banking-and-insurance-should-be-boring/#comment-17793 |
| I think so, Brain, but where will we find a duck and a hose at this hour? | 2013-04-10T04:34:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/10/banking-and-insurance-should-be-boring/#comment-17789 |
| Thanks! | 2013-04-10T02:55:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/10/banking-and-insurance-should-be-boring/#comment-17785 |
| Thanks, I'm just glad you aren't offended by this. :-) I can tell you are responsible more than you are boring but if you can take a joke (or really an over-statement) then that's good with me. :-) | 2013-04-10T01:31:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/10/banking-and-insurance-should-be-boring/#comment-17783 |
| Thank you so much for your stories! I miss the old Perrine as well. It was a magical place. | 2013-04-10T00:48:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/songs-poems/short-stories/cutler/#comment-17781 |
| I don't know what you mean - can you please elaborate? New ways of organizing work are very much what I like to think about, but don't really have any new ideas to add of my own. But it's clear that the old W-2 40 hours stuff is becoming antique. |
2013-04-09T15:51:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17777 |
| Thanks! | 2013-04-09T15:23:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17775 |
| Thanks! Without readers, there's little point to writing - and the discussion makes all my ramblings far more important! | 2013-04-09T02:27:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17772 |
| There are better places to find quality analysis, but most of them are very detailed and some are simply not all that well written. There's just so much to say, especially among the experts who are troubled by what they see and really need to dump it out of their brains. My job is often to simply "translate" what the bond traders and ForEx mavens are writing about - take out the jargon, organize it, and summarize it. It's a much easier job than you might think and really doesn't take that much time. But thank you all the same. I do think that I'm filling a need for good economic information written for the layman. The only thing I really don't understand is why I can't find a full-time job doing this! |
2013-04-08T16:06:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17767 |
| That has to be the best compliment I have ever received, thank you very much! | 2013-04-08T16:03:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17766 |
| Thank you very much! | 2013-04-08T03:31:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17758 |
| Thank you! No, a lot of the time I'm writing about what I can figure out - which is about half of the picture. You guys usually fill in the rest. :-) | 2013-04-08T03:30:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/08/six-years-on/#comment-17757 |
| I think we can see that in the numbers. This month was just not good at all! | 2013-04-06T19:51:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/03/revisiting-job-dynamics/#comment-17749 |
| Good point on airlines. Electricity did not create a bubble and that may be because it was less transforming. But that is a good one to look into, you are right. Why not? I think you are right on the tar sands - higher pressure means more trouble. I have never been against the Keystone for most of the reasons given (seriously, we will continue to burn hydrocarbons for a long time) but that is a good reason to be against it. And yes, I think suburban design spells doom, too. It's not a matter of a little more space between houses, it's a matter of many miles to any kind of real "center". Some of that can be retro-fixed but it will be expensive and require a lot of coordination. Some of that is going on, though! |
2013-04-06T19:50:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17748 |
| Thanks! | 2013-04-06T19:47:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/27/in-praise-of-junk/#comment-17747 |
| Yes, that is a good analogy. Except in Groundhog Day Bill Murray's character learned something each time. :-) It's starting to seem very obvious to me that basic wisdom is missing from our world, which is quite chilling. | 2013-04-05T16:42:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17739 |
| Thanks! So many questions. :-) Not every new tech creates a bubble, no. There seem to be more requirements than just tech - for example, it seems that advances in transportation and communication (which are closely linked) are the ones most likely to create bubbles - probably has to do with once disparate markets evening out. Also, there is a matter of timing - the market has to be in the mood to create a bubble. A question I have is "Why didn't jet airplanes create a bubble around 1960?" and the answer seems to be that they came in at the end of a recession and had limited impact on both communication and cargo - but I'm thinking about it. What was before cars? Railroads, in the late 1870s. Tying together diverse markets into one continent-wide one created a huge bubble! I am thinking about bubbles, depressions, and what matters the most. It's never quite the same thing twice, although they do seem to run through the economy in a similar way. I agree that context is always what is missing in daily reporting, and that's why so many of my posts start at ground zero and explain the background. It's setting the scene in storytelling. :-) Good training all around. I worry that I am a bit insulting when I go over what people might already know, so I try to make it both brief and somewhat amusing in its own right (such as putting in a joke or pithy comment). The problem I have with the news is the lack of rigor and discipline. I see so many stories that just don't even come close to answering the who, what, when, where, and why that reporters should have. |
2013-04-05T14:33:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17736 |
| Thanks! I am thinking about what needs to be written, and there are two books in here at least. The main point is that all this stuff over 6 years should be organized into a linear story that makes sense. The popular press baffles me sometimes. How they can miss very obvious stories and still spend so much time on Kardashians, etc. really escapes me. I don't watch much teevee nooze so I really don't know what the average person who relies on that is getting. It seems to me that you'd have to scan a lot of channels to know what is being portrayed across all of them - unless it's quite uniform. I haven't seen local news in decades. |
2013-04-05T13:55:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17734 |
| Many people saw this coming, the bubble was huge. And it was NOT a &*^% "real estate bubble"! Sorry, lost in the moment there. :-) Seriously, this was important and it is worth noting what a terrible job was done reporting on this at the time - as well as since then. |
2013-04-05T04:21:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17730 |
| Thank you. Yes, it was weird how the mainstream press completely ignored the many moves by the Fed at that time - I still don't understand it or how people still claim that "no one saw this coming". It was bizarre. My point is that disruptive change is disruptive. There's a yin and a yang to it, and yesterday's "productivity gains" are today's "unemployment". This is what fuels long term business cycles (Kondratieff Waves) and there is a downside to it all. The popular myth that disruptive technology is always good is very dangerous (and quite stupid). |
2013-04-05T03:45:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/05/yes-not-again-again/#comment-17728 |
| Yes, comments were wonky while I was gone all day. I don't know what went wrong. Email me next time you have a problem! If you see new jobs being created then that has to be taken into account. Generally, a lot are lost and created, which is the "churn", yes. So it may go both ways. The net creation is a pretty small number next to the total churn! |
2013-04-04T17:03:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/03/revisiting-job-dynamics/#comment-17726 |
| I don't know yet. Two things stand out - they were blaming the lack of new construction jobs on the end of Hurricane Sandy, but I think that generally bad weather in March was also a factor there. Also, bigger employers really throttled back their hiring, which has gone unexplained. | 2013-04-04T17:01:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/03/revisiting-job-dynamics/#comment-17725 |
| Thank you. Yes, this does seem like the endgame forming. It is sickening to watch. Here is an article from the Telegraph on Slovenia. The headline that says Slovenia "will not be the next Cyprus" says it all, in that what has to be denied most vociferously is usually the truth. | 2013-04-02T23:13:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17713 |
| You get to crow on this one, for sure. Their behavior has been outrageous. | 2013-04-02T23:10:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17712 |
| A very good question! How do we push the big ol' Reset Button? I've talked about this a lot, but there has to be some kind of debt forgiveness involved in this. That also means that the ECB will wind up printing more Euros, but we came to these conclusions long ago. They would also have to have some agreement as to how things will be different going forward - that is, we really did reboot the system and we're starting clean (and you can't expect more bailout in the future!). But it is something like that, for sure. There HAS to be some kind of debt forgiveness in here. I proposed the auction method of doing it, which is to say letting some market forces dictate what is written down, but that may not be enough. And what is done has to take into account both the moral hazard ("we're not doing this again") and the problems in the union that allowed it to happen in the first place (borrowing way ahead of their capacity). | 2013-04-01T15:25:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17702 |
| So many questions! :-) Let me do this in order: I did write about the sense of panic rising, and you're right that this is an expression of that. I noted the rising panic at the Davos Conference and more explicitly later discussing worldwide intervention by central banks. Yes, there is a sense of growing panic. As for nations handling this by themselves first, that has been the standard - although it's better put that they get as many pounds of flesh out of them as possible. That's the nature of austerity in Europe, and it hasn't been working. This time they did try to do something different, which was interesting, but it was so poorly thought out. I guess you are right to mention that this is still standard "each central bank on their own" policy because they have not actually abandoned anything even if they are more squishy on austerity - which everyone knows isn't working. How will this affect us? Most big banks here took steps to insulate themselves from Europe a long time ago. What I worry about are all those Credit Default Swaps that JP Morgan (and to a lesser extend Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs) have invested in. Some of them are insurance against European defaults. So far the defaults have been carefully controlled and not enough to kill anyone (except, apparently, Cyprus) but we can see how the dominoes fall slowly. If this turns into a big Euro failure I would think JP Morgan is on the hook for a LOT of it, and as noted here they are not as healthy as they should be to start with. Good questions, all worth another 800 word essay frankly. We have entered a new phase of Euro problems and it is worth thinking through. I think that at the very least any calculations of the Worst Case Scenario have to be re-done. | 2013-04-01T15:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17700 |
| I say it's the end of the Euro because the promises of unity have been broken. More to the point, the ECB has been slow to print more Euros because they see their job as defending the value of the currency - but to Cyprus, at least, it's worth something different. Breaking those promises has to shake faith - and as Adam Smith noted all money is in the end a matter of faith. I hope that the larger nations see Cyprus as an anomaly, but I think they may not. Any reasonable Spaniard must think about keeping a few thousand Euros on hand now in cash - that's money out of the system. The implications will play out for months. My main point is that this is going to be far more expensive than the 5.8B that it would have taken to just bail out Cyprus all together in the first place. I hope you are right and this is not the end of the Euro as we know it. I really hope I am wrong here. But this was a major turning point in my mind - but yes, it's the minds of the average Italian or Spaniard that matter more. |
2013-04-01T14:58:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17699 |
| I honestly have no idea what comes next. I don't know how they can repair this damage. | 2013-04-01T02:43:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/04/01/the-cyprus-disaster/#comment-17696 |
| I appreciate someone defending Pope Benedict XVI, and you are right. I have not read Caritas in Veritate (Love in Truth) but seen a few selections which were pretty good about developed/rich people giving back to the world and encouraging fairness through more than just charity. Thank you, a good addition! |
2013-03-29T16:10:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17680 |
| Don't worry, we won't tell your mom. :-) The role of women in the church is the one thing where Catholicism is very far behind any Protestant faith, and it does stand out especially. Many very conservative denominations are still accepting of women as pastors. So yes, that does seem important just by contrast. | 2013-03-29T16:06:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17679 |
| Excellent point. Here's to a good renewing. Seeing the church become irrelevant would be painful, IMHO. They do too many good things that can't be completely dropped, and it's hard to imagine a secular organization being as dedicated and efficient. | 2013-03-29T14:55:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17674 |
| Thank you for your kind words. A living saint is a lot to ask, but what's important is to try - and set an example for everyone. I'm seeing that now and I love it! I will keep mixing up the social stuff and the economics - I believe they very much go together. An economy is nothing more than the sum total of what we literally "value", after all - and it starts with values. |
2013-03-29T14:54:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17673 |
| Alan, you and I have the same thoughts on so many things it's chilling. I completely agree on how Catholicism is practiced in daily life here in the developed world, but I have also see the good works done and I can't imagine a world without someone doing that. It is a lot to depend on but it is important. Yes, I want a Pope that comes from that side of things and leads the Church more in that direction! I think we both have the same take on where we are now - hopeful that we got it right this time. We'll just have to see, won't we? |
2013-03-29T14:52:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17672 |
| I have not heard that. I have heard questions about his apparent neutrality during the "Dirty War", but that has been countered / forgiven by many of those who suffered so I consider that a non-issue. No matter what, a full "truth and reconciliation" is in order for the whole Church on the issue of bad priests, and I know that something is going to come from this new Pope. I'm waiting to see what it is before I tell you how I feel. The Church does have a lot to overcome. | 2013-03-29T02:37:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17668 |
| I have no problem with setting a high bar, especially for "recovering Catholics". I think the Church should be set to a high standard. But what I'll tell you is that I like what I have seen so far - and that even if all he provides is some solid leadership it's something the world sorely needs. | 2013-03-29T01:13:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/29/pope-francis-the-passionate/#comment-17666 |
| That's what I was discussing with the liability outstanding - and yes, there is a lot of pressure to keep rates low more or less forever. I think that will be the norm for a long time. But a little bit of managable risk is a good thing, yes! | 2013-03-28T01:35:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/27/in-praise-of-junk/#comment-17661 |
| I prefer being upbeat when I can. :-) | 2013-03-28T01:34:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/27/in-praise-of-junk/#comment-17660 |
| Thanks! It's another sign of a turnaround. There are many. | 2013-03-27T03:47:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/27/in-praise-of-junk/#comment-17648 |
| Yes, that's what we need! :-) | 2013-03-26T17:31:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17644 |
| Yes, Glass-Steagall would at least isolate Chase from this disaster - and make it much harder for them to paper up their problems. | 2013-03-26T17:30:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17643 |
| Hear that, everyone, I'm back to being Mr. Darkness! :-) Seriously, don't be too depressed - we need to take action, and a lot of people are already very alarmed. I think there's a race on right not to reign these guys in before they do real damage. Let's see how it goes. | 2013-03-25T14:40:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17630 |
| Part of the problem for the media is that the larger JPM problem is very complex - it's clear that even JPM doesn't fully understand their exposure. It's hard to report on this stuff, especially with financial reporters who are not all that well versed in the area. They need "experts" to interview that can deliver the story. | 2013-03-25T14:39:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17629 |
| It is starting to scare me in a big way, too. I don't have anything more specific than these trades last year, but it occurs to me that they are rolling the dice harder and harder all the time - and not having bigger profits at the end of the quarter. Why? Are they taking bigger bets to cover bigger losses in other areas we don't know about? Cheap money will encourage risky behavior, no doubt. That's part of what we're seeing here. But why don't they have the profits that would go along with a big success? For all their advantages they must not be making big hits. That's scary. |
2013-03-25T14:37:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17628 |
| Given the number of people in finance that are horrified by JPM, I think this is a major turning point. I have also heard a lot of bad things about Chase, their commercial bank arm (thanks to the repeal of Glass-Steagal!). This is often cited as a reason why JPM is not a bad bet despite the obviously risky position internationally - they have very good cash flow from Chase. Going after the Chase arm is hitting them at their most vulnerable, I think. |
2013-03-25T04:10:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/25/just-too-big/#comment-17624 |
| Thank you. And yes, I'm more appalled by the media every day. | 2013-03-22T18:31:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17615 |
| Update: Here is an excellent article on "The Price of Evil at JP Morgan". It tells us a bit more about why JPM needs this - largely to cover their own incompetence. I do think that taken together there are many signs that JPM is on the verge of failure. | 2013-03-22T17:15:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17613 |
| Yes, this is really bad stuff. I think JP Morgan is desperate - I wonder how bad things are there. I did call this about a year ago, actually more like 18 months, at least as the story to watch. I didn't become convinced that things had turned around until last summer. Slow, steady progress is not a bad thing at all! |
2013-03-22T16:16:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17612 |
| MAY be the biggest stories. Here we go - A strong turnaround in jobs will be punctuated with job gains by the young, there is no doubt. And I think that this will be a big story this year if the trends continue. As for the currency war, this is a harder story. I worry that corporate profits will suffer from a strong USD, but more importantly I think we will see a lot of stories about travel abroad if this keeps up - which is to say not enough stories about how it's hurting manufacturing. Americans are used to a strong USD so this isn't much of a story, but if it goes into more QE later in the year (as I expect) that will be a potential story, yes. Repealing Dodd-Frank may yet become a story, but I don't know what form it will take. This has a long way to play out, but it is clear that the Republicans are willing to lead the way for their big investment bank buddies. Yes, this could be a big story - and I really hope it is. |
2013-03-22T02:30:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17608 |
| They got re-elected largely through Gerrymandering - they owned far too many state legislatures. Disgusting, isn't it? We should remember that 6 Democrats went along with this, however, so no one is clean. But we ALL have to insist on better to stop this. |
2013-03-22T02:25:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17607 |
| You are most welcome! I love this song, and I cry every time I play it. I find it so beautiful that words cannot describe it. | 2013-03-22T02:24:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17606 |
| Say what you want here. :-) Yes, the Ag Committee. Isn't that just "special"? I don't want to be known only for good news, but when I see it coming I'll report it. Hey, I was the first to call this a "Depression" and I was accused of being Mr. Downer for a few years - this is my make-up call, OK? :-) Seriously, things are looking up - but there are serious threats. The worst one right now is in our own government. That is really, really bad. |
2013-03-22T02:23:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/22/the-good-bad-ugly/#comment-17605 |
| A few additional notes are called for: I have been told that futbol fans still use "Chile, la alegría ya viene!" as a chant when the national team is playing. That sounds simply wonderful! It's worth noting, too, that "alegría" doesn't really mean happiness - it translates better as rejoicing or something much more active. I used the translation "happiness" only because it seems to be the universal way to refer to this song en Inglés. Also, here are the lyrics with a google translate into English after them: Chile, la alegría ya viene (bis) Porque digan lo que digan yo soy libre de pensar. Porque siento que es la hora de ganar la libertad, Hasta cuando ya de abusos, es el tiempo de cambiar. Porque basta de miserias voy a decir que no. Porque nace el arco iris después de la tempestad, Porque quiero que florezca mi manera de pensar, Porque sin la dictadura la alegría va a llegar, Porque pienso en el futuro voy a decir que no. Vamos a decir que no, oh con la fuerza de mi voz, Vamos a decir que no, yo lo canto sin temor, Vamos a decir que no, vamos juntos a triunfar, Vamos a decir que no, por la vida y por paz. Terminemos con la muerte, Es la oportunidad de vencer la violencia, Con las armas de la paz. Porque creo que mi Patria necesita dignidad. Por un Chile para todos, vamos a decir que no. Vamos a decir que no, oh con la fuerza de mi voz, Vamos a decir que no, yo lo canto sin temor, Vamos a decir que no, vamos juntos a triunfar, Vamos a decir que no, por la vida y por la paz. Chile, la alegría ya viene. Chile, happiness is coming (repeated) Because whatever they say I am free to think. Because I feel that it is time to gain freedom, With the abuse is the time to change. Because of the miseries I'll just say no. Because there is a rainbow after the storm, Because I want my thinking to flourish, Because without the dictatorship happiness will come, Because I think about the future - I will say no. Let's say no, oh, by the power of my voice, Let's say no, I sing it without fear, Let's say no, we succeed together, Let's say no, for life and peace. Get over death This is an opportunity to overcome violence With weapons of peace. Because I think my country needs dignity. For a Chile for everyone, we will say no. Let's say no, oh by the power of my voice, Let's say no, I sing it without fear, Let's say no, we succeed together, Let's say no, for life and for peace. Chile, happiness is coming. |
2013-03-21T19:25:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17598 |
| You are right. Let's get something started! For a first pass, I'm thinking of how to support the Simpson-Bowles "Fix the Debt" group. | 2013-03-21T19:05:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17597 |
| (yes, but I never talk about my private life here ... :-) ) Selling the "No" the way they sold a new cola was dealt with very well, I think, and it left us to make our own opinion about the situation. I haven't digested that part yet, to be honest. But reaching deep down and calling upon the most basic impulses of good people was so very important - and that's the lesson I hope we can learn it. It's so easy to demand retribution - or even demand justice - but the real justice comes in not letting those who abuse power hurt anyone anymore. |
2013-03-21T03:34:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17593 |
| Yes, that's basically it, but to really get people excited about the future it does take a positive. No one ever stayed excited about austerity, which is a lot of the reason we're in this situation, yes. | 2013-03-21T03:30:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17592 |
| I like foreign movies, generally. I think they are pretty heavily screened before we get them, so what arrives here is only the best. There's a lot to learn from other peoples' experiences, IMHO, and film is one way to do it! | 2013-03-21T03:29:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17591 |
| I had not heard this song or seen this commercial before. But we didn't have social media to share things back then. We do now, and we can still learn the lessons! | 2013-03-20T04:50:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17581 |
| I believe you are right, especially in that this has been shown time and time again. But it takes skill and determination to avoid revenge negativity, especially among challengers. But when the power responds with a character attack, they are in fact showing weakness - something which came out rather plainly in the movie. A positive message is essential for the Democrats to be resurgent. It would help to be backed with real legislation and a solid agenda, but the movement has to be positive. That I am sure of. Look at the Minnesota "No" campaign this last time. We could have dwelt on homophobia and so on - but didn't. And it worked, yes? |
2013-03-20T04:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/20/happiness-is-coming/#comment-17580 |
| I think there is a resurgence in alternative thought. People are looking for new ideas - given that the old ones appear to have hit a lot of dead-ends. It's a good sign, IMHO. | 2013-03-19T01:09:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17569 |
| Thanks! I will stay at it. I'll figure out some way to reach the middle class with the message. | 2013-03-18T17:28:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17566 |
| I won't say who, but the why is easy - it isn't "punchy" enough. It's too dull. So there. I like being in balance, so don't call me Mr. Sunshine. :-) This is a tricky thing and it could still go bad on us, but there is reason to be hopeful. Besides, have you seen the "New Deal" proposal from the Progressive Caucus? Finally, a real proposal for tackling the problem! |
2013-03-18T15:26:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17562 |
| We never revisit anything in the media, and everything has to be topical to "right now". I am very upset about this. I heard someone just the other day refer to a "housing bubble" as if it was something on its own, not part of a credit bubble, and I couldn't believe it. We're so deliberately stupid as a collective people, yet individuals aren't this dumb. How can we demand better? | 2013-03-18T15:25:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17561 |
| Too big to jail is something I am still struggling to get a handle on. We are so screwed if this holds. I wrote about it briefly, but ... this is really becoming policy? Wow. The media today is very conservative and cautious. I don't know what to do to reach the middle class with my difficult message. |
2013-03-18T15:21:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17560 |
| Thanks - I could stuff some links in here at least - I have them handy. Graphs ... well, they are a bit more bulky. LOL on the word "Managed" - I do see what you mean. :-) |
2013-03-18T15:19:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17559 |
| This is a lot of what I mean by "Managed Depression" - the worst has been taken care of by the system we have, but there are still awful effects lingering out there. People are working and not making it all the time, which is very scary. There is a lot more barter (trade of services, like painting!) and underground cash economy going on, too. It's very hard to quantify all of this, but I am sure that history will call this a Depression in the end. Mainstream media appears to be scared of the "D" word, however, for now. | 2013-03-18T14:52:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/18/the-managed-depression-update/#comment-17555 |
| Thank you. I also think this is very important, and pretty much at the core of what it means to be Irish-American. We may not have the hyphen out every day, but somewhere deep inside of us there is a memory across generations. We must be true to that. | 2013-03-15T19:08:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/15/st-patricks-day-3/#comment-17548 |
| Thank you! St Patrick's is a very special holiday for me. | 2013-03-15T18:31:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/15/st-patricks-day-3/#comment-17546 |
| That is a very simple and practical regulation/law that I could get behind. Thanks, a very good addition! I'm not one to think about consumer regulation so this sort of thing goes right past me most of the time. | 2013-03-14T16:54:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17536 |
| OK, let me back up a bit .... I think we can break this down into two questions: 1) If the Fed does another QE (and I think they will, whether it's a good idea or not, given the MZMV curve above) what should they do to get the cash out into the economy more effectively than they have? We've seen them try buying mortgage backed securities, and one friend of mine suggested the Milton Friedman "helicopter drop" of cash. What else? 2) What can be done to reduce the overall debt load and help push the reset button on the old economy that has already failed? This could be another long list if we had an old fashioned brainstorming session. Bonus points if you can work the Moral Hazard into your responses. :-) |
2013-03-14T04:03:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17533 |
| That may be true - but make no mistake it's affecting their wallets now. And when the revolution comes ... well, we have to at least develop a credible threat there. | 2013-03-14T01:07:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17532 |
| But my main point is that the Fed is clearly at least going to contemplate more quantitative easing - and if they do that they damned well better find a better way to make use of it than what they have been doing so far. New ideas on this topic are important. | 2013-03-13T04:01:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17521 |
| A good point. It's been a while since I discussed the moral hazard. Banks and the stock market have become dependent on free cash to keep things going. I think that the constantly declining velocity shows this pretty clearly. Yes, that was a bad omission. I'll do better. :-) | 2013-03-13T03:44:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17520 |
| Thanks, and I try to not be too positive. There's always the Federal Government to bring me down. Seriously, it makes my head hurt to understand just what this means - but none of it can be good. Inflation does seem inevitable, and that is another way out of this mess. It's hard to imagine that being as well managed as this depression, however. At some point we're Brasil (and, the way things are going they are us, koo-koo-kajoob?) |
2013-03-13T03:24:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17518 |
| (really, you don't have to swear) Certainly, we can regulate away penalties and that would help a lot. Eliminating interest rate charges is much harder to do unless we develop a much broader usury law. The whole idea of the Fed's zero interest policy was to lower interest rates, but that has rarely been passed on to the consumers as they should be. It's possible to make your plan happen, sure. It would be pretty hard to craft it but I'll give it some thought. These new rules could be made to apply to declared debt that is put into a program of some kind, that would certainly be easier. People could apply for these protections as an alternative to bankruptcy. That would be much easier to implement. |
2013-03-13T03:01:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17516 |
| Thanks! I do think this is important, and I do think that more QE will be around the corner if this keeps up. I don't see any way other than more and more stimulus - but it's clearly not working the way they are doing it now. | 2013-03-13T02:27:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/13/jubilee-cancel-debt/#comment-17514 |
| Thanks, happened almost by accident when things went down today for no reason. I'll keep working on it. :-) How did this happen? I am asking that very question, and I think it has a lot to do with loose money policies over the last 30 years. The last boom was defined by a big consumer binge - and we have to ask who was doing the borrowing & who was doing the lending - and how much did the lenders have to pay for the money they got versus what those consumers paid. Is the system rigged? Yes and no - some of it is horribly rigged, but the greater economy is pretty wide open to anyone with skills. I am thinking about this, yes. I'm looking for your help with that, as always. :-) |
2013-03-11T21:01:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17504 |
| I am working on the format problem, thanks! A very good point about belief in the system. If this message gets out and sticks, people will no longer feel that the rich might be them someday - and be much less willing to back tax cuts, etc. You're right - the whole paradigm breaks down if those in power are not careful. |
2013-03-11T16:57:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17502 |
| I am not a fan of PuffHo and their free labor, that is not a sustainable model. How will we get the word out on bigger topics that don't lend themselves to another piece like this on a blog? A good question. | 2013-03-11T14:27:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17500 |
| Yes, you have an excellent point. This is only a start to me - but we're talking about inequality for the first time. I don't think anyone watching this would scream "socialist!" in response. OK, then, how can this be made shorter and much more fun? A good question. |
2013-03-11T14:25:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17499 |
| No, the modern concept of pooled investment. It's an interesting system developed to get around the lack of interest payments as a standard. | 2013-03-11T14:24:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-17498 |
| So how would we go about redistributing the wealth? Short of a revolution I can't imagine how we would even do such a thing (not commenting on its desirability at all). | 2013-03-11T02:16:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17493 |
| I'd like to work this out amongst us, if we could. We have a lot of good ideas here. | 2013-03-11T02:14:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/11/inequality-becomes-intolerable/#comment-17492 |
| Thanks. The cycles are always there, and big investors always write about them. It doesn't really go away. | 2013-03-08T21:30:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17479 |
| Yes, there are primary companies and a lot of small ones that feed into them - the auto industry is the best example. I wrote about this a while ago, but more about Ohio as a whole state. I've been worried about the place. But yes, that's how it goes. As for longer term planning, it's entirely possible and there are many approaches to making it work. The business cycles, for example, are something I've been talking about here for at least a couple of years - and we know something about what the next one will look like. We could do a MUCH better job with long range planning, especially with infrastructure. Sorry about the hassles with work, that's terrible. And I do hope we get something good together in health care, finally. I'm not watching it all that closely, because this stuff really gets detailed, but I will keep something of an eye on it. | 2013-03-08T20:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17475 |
| That would be a good thing to see, thanks! We know so little about the rest of the world here, it's chilling. I would like to know more about the Arab Spring in particular - this may have generation long implications, even if the immediate effects are slow to come on. | 2013-03-08T19:39:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17472 |
| Excellent point on the CCI - just because someone has a job does not mean they are ready to spend every dollar from their last paycheck and max out the credit card again. I hadn't thought this through enough, but these start-ups are all rather tenuous and at 40% of new jobs we have to regard all those employees as "wary". Excellent call, thank you! |
2013-03-08T16:54:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17468 |
| YES! Debt is the main issue, and I have been thinking about what needs to be done here. Obviously, we're not going to have a "Jubilee" as I proposed before given that the establishment will never make this cost them $$$ so directly. But there has to be a way out of the debt, and that is what it will take to have a real turn-around. One answer, of course, is inflation. I think we should be ready for that. | 2013-03-08T16:52:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17467 |
| I got that quote from the UK Guardian. I think there's a link up there somewhere to it - they were running a "live blog" as world leaders reacted to Chavez;s death. | 2013-03-08T05:23:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17463 |
| Thanks! Being respectful means to me that you start by acknowledging that people come to the conclusions and opinions they hold dear for a reason. If you assume they are simply stupid in some way you are insulting them - and it will come out eventually. In this world we all have to work together at some point, and that means we have to respect each other. We don't have to agree, that's silly. So I try to be respectful and accept that people do things for reasons I don't understand but are very dear to them. In the case of Hugo Chavez the guy didn't steal and did back down when told he went to far by the people. That means something important, and he should have credit for that. I don't agree with him, but he did accomplish a lot - and it's worthy of respect. The one thing I really don't understand is why respect seems so difficult for so many people today. |
2013-03-08T05:22:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17462 |
| How about 42%? 2% inflation and 4% real return over 6 years. :-) Yes, it's a big number. I think we might be back near there in 4 years unless rates go up quickly - which I doubt. So there may be a lot of potential here, and the continuing rise of corporate profits will be something to watch in 2013. Incidentally, this will probably tempt Democrats to tax corporations more as the year wears on. I'm not totally against that, but the current structure has to change before I'll back anything. |
2013-03-08T04:23:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/08/djia-yes-andor-no/#comment-17461 |
| I just can't take a hard line on socialism, knowing how important cooperation is when a nation is rising to developed status. The example of Japan in the 60s was duplicated brilliantly in South Korea and is now being put to work in Malaysia and Indonesia. Brazil followed a similar path, and it's worked well for them. I guess the bottom line is that I would never want to dictate "the right way" to people in a situation very different from mine. I can complain about a lack of free speech - I do feel that's a universal right, at least in politics. But the rest - yes, they can have it. :-) |
2013-03-06T16:16:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17442 |
| I never knew what to make of Chavez. I do find myself grieving his passing because I don't know what's next for Venezuela and the region. I cheer for them and wish them all the best. It seems like Chavez's regime is something they had to pass through - so what's next? | 2013-03-06T03:12:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/06/hugo-chavez/#comment-17437 |
| I totally agree. | 2013-03-04T22:14:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/04/austerity-goes-down/#comment-17425 |
| Mainly, I'm disgusted beyond words. What a bunch of losers posing as a government. | 2013-03-04T20:17:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/04/austerity-goes-down/#comment-17423 |
| Ha! I guess I am like Krugman when the debate gets this polarized. I've never liked his call for more spending without being carefully targeted to things that transform the economy, but given where we are we can't be picky. The reactionaries are a serious problem. They can't be allowed to have so much power, either here or in Europe. It's very sad that it comes down to this. Good luck on the new gig, and sad that you're one of us who can't get health care. That will change in a year - we just have to hold on a bit longer. Yes, I'm watching the legislature and should say more about what's going on there. |
2013-03-04T15:29:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/04/austerity-goes-down/#comment-17418 |
| This should be a good thing, and I can'[t wait to see it happen! | 2013-03-04T02:04:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17407 |
| The Grand Avenue Streetcar has not been seriously considered, but it should be. The 63 bus is an important commuter bus and it should be easy to evaluate for upgrade. My hunch is that it can be justified, but we have to see just what cost per mile they come up with in this study. Remember, no one has installed one in St Paul yet so a lot is up in the air on that - it may prove to be a bad idea for a number of reasons. But - this is the important point - we are about to find out! I also heavily favor streetcars when the number of passengers shows it is reasonable, but there are other considerations. It may not fit well on West 7th, for example, even with enough passengers. |
2013-03-01T16:07:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17387 |
| They laid out where there are big draws for employment, etc and where there are a lot of "transit dependent" people. Then, everyone was invited to help them identify important things they might have missed. This is not about "spurring development" (is development an ass or a steed? why do you have to "spur" it?), this is about serving. That's why I'm enthusiastic! | 2013-03-01T16:05:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17386 |
| Usually they have been - but this seemed different. I know what was said to them and we'll see if it is reflected in the process. What I can tell you is that the engineers and planners engaged everyone in plain English, and that was new enough to be remarkable. | 2013-03-01T16:03:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17385 |
| It is much better. They really seem to understand the importance of being efficient with scarce transit dough. I really do think this will work out well. | 2013-03-01T03:55:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/03/01/transit-planning-2/#comment-17379 |
| Thanks. :-) | 2013-02-28T02:21:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/27/plain-talk/#comment-17366 |
| Amen! But I'm still trying to get people to wake the eff up, in the (sort of) words of the great philosopher Samuel L. Jackson. :-) | 2013-02-28T02:21:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/27/plain-talk/#comment-17365 |
| Thanks. It was both a long time ago and really not that long. | 2013-02-25T16:37:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/25/back-to-the-future/#comment-17353 |
| Amen! | 2013-02-25T04:57:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/25/back-to-the-future/#comment-17343 |
| Listening to and reading the whole address, I was surprised how deep it really is. It highlights not just how far we have fallen but how so much of it was anticipated. Even by a lazy lightweight? Wowsa. | 2013-02-25T04:35:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/25/back-to-the-future/#comment-17341 |
| UPDATE - Einhorn has won his Federal suit against Apple, meaning that there will be no vote on a bundled resolution that limits the Apple Board's ability to release new shares of stock. It's largely meaningless, however, in the bigger fight - and gets Einhorn no closer to his "iPref" shares with a perpetual 4% interest rate (which is still a really dumb idea for Apple). | 2013-02-22T21:48:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17336 |
| I, for one, hope that this comes up at the shareholder's annual meeting - and expect that it will. Apple is moving away from Foxcon, but that only leaves unemployment in their wake. Yes, whose money is all this? Shareholders? Workers? Or is it the sole property of this might beast called "Apple" that as we all know is not really a person no matter how law defines them? |
2013-02-22T19:14:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17333 |
| Thank you very much! I have been thinking about this in broader historical terms, as I tend to. The great industrialists like Rockefeller and Carnegie had many opposing forces to deal with, especially unions and government. But there was an intense rivalry with investors - the group that ruined railroads with over speculation and plummeted the nation into the Long Depression in the 1880s. The tension is that a new product creates new markets, which is to say new opportunities for speculation and sales. Who controls that market - the manufacturer or the market itself? That has been an age old question. Today, we have to inject the consumer into that to form a more complex triangular tug of war, so history doesn't teach us everything. Note, for example, what no one has said anything about so far - Apple's Foxcon contract in China that proved embarrassing for low labor standards. We see the pull of worker rights expressed as bad PR (similar to the old days) but the tension came in the form of consumer action. Interesting ... Who runs a company like Apple - shareholders, Apple, or consumers? Ultimately it's a bigger view of what a "market" is - but Apple does know how to manage their long-term focus the best of all the groups fighting for a piece of the action, IMHO. |
2013-02-22T17:09:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17331 |
| Thanks, that was what I was trying to do. Well, I had to understand it first. | 2013-02-22T05:09:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17328 |
| I think I agree all around. This is bizarre stuff. But if it winds up confirming that a pile of cash is not necessarily a target we have a precedent that might change things - that's what I care about. | 2013-02-22T03:40:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/22/forbidden-fruit/#comment-17326 |
| Good point. And that is a great excuse, if for no other reason than it shows how variable things are AND what to watch to understand the variability. Why not? | 2013-02-21T18:43:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/20/streamin/#comment-17318 |
| Thanks! | 2013-02-21T18:42:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/20/streamin/#comment-17317 |
| And thank you for it! ;-) | 2013-02-20T03:25:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/20/streamin/#comment-17297 |
| Krugman is right, IMHO, and this is a classic Depression in that sense at least. A while ago I did a piece on an analysis of income disparity and how it appears to slow growth in all economies around the world - with China starting to experience a big problem. This is what it's all about, IMHO. How do we close the gap? I'm quite tired of people saying "Education!" automatically because that's nowhere near enough. We need opportunity. I still believe that starts with making real, physical things in manufacturing but I have yet to be able to prove it. However, those are good jobs where skills can be developed over a lifetime as well as having a lot of spinoff potential for research, etc. To me, it's a question of how much value the job actually adds to society in the end. A shortage of jobs that add a lot of value puts a pinch on those that add less - like reporters and musicians. I'd hate to think that everyone has to add a lot of value, as that would be one cold society, but we need more value added per worker all around. And that means making stuff - for at least a lot of people. |
2013-02-20T00:24:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17295 |
| That is a very good question, and one I can't answer. Pensions are traditionally funded as they go, not like Social Security. But government pensions are a bit different. This does seem like a huge problem that will show up in the next few years given that there is going to be slow growth. It's worth thinking through a lot more. Growth of 2% is probably not enough to fund anyone's retirement based on current plans. |
2013-02-19T02:25:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17285 |
| You hit my perspective squarely on as usual - if nothing else, a curb in spending so that it's not running away could keep TBill rates lower and really help prevent the crisis. However, I'm still to the left of you on creating real growth and we do have to find ways of making that happen. It's a difficult balance at best. I think the middle ground would be carefully targeted spending in key areas, as I've said before. | 2013-02-18T16:50:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17280 |
| Excellent comment all around. Patience is rewarded these days, even when it looks like it's time to get out of a bad investment. I have two problems with an S&P500 index fund. One is that I'm starting to consider Warren Buffett's axiom that you should invest in what you can see first, which is to say that you have to manage risk close at hand. Small banks seem to be doing that lately and I don't see how small investors can be different. The other problem is that real returns of 2% or less are going to be with us, and that's hardly the way to build to retirement - there will be a reckoning. I am looking for good examples of local investment clubs that allow some diversity and give small investors a chance to do what Buffett suggested. If you have any ideas please pass them on! |
2013-02-18T16:48:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17279 |
| There always is. It's not about money, it's about talent and work. | 2013-02-18T04:26:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17273 |
| The rise in the stock market is a bit puzzling. I think that money is entering stocks because it has nowhere else to go - but I don't see this going on forever. Without solid profits the PE ratios will get way out of whack and we'll see a correction. So I didn't want to say anything about that - it's very hard to read, IMHO. | 2013-02-18T04:25:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/18/low-growth-the-new-normal/#comment-17272 |
| Thanks. I think the goal should be to get everyone to where they see money as a tool. Some don't have enough of it to think that far ahead, some others have too much of it and see it as a way of keeping score. But the real ticket has to be that this is how we bring happiness to our lives. That takes some long-term planning and strategy, which I wish we'd teach more in schools. But we can talk about it as a people and fill in a lot of gaps. Far too much of popular culture is taken up with the keeping score view on money. As we enter a low-growth new economy that's just poison. | 2013-02-16T17:10:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17265 |
| Thank you, and I am trying to "translate" important concepts out of policy-speak and into something that makes sense in the real world. Not only should that engage people, but it should keep the policy makers focused on what is important. The jargon is very killing - and at times I think that people are blindly applying whatever "their tribe" says is the right thing to do. But yes, what goes into that "overhead"? Is it really all unavoidable cost? The short answer is no, and I'd hate to have us define a standard best suited for a bleak hand-to-mouth existence. But people can do a lot to cut their own costs substantially. Fuel, and cars in general, is a huge one that we're only scratching at (but there is great progress!). The latest tech like cell phones is another that is adding onto our perceived "overhead" - do we really need that? Much of this will change slowly. No, we can't just buy a more fuel efficient car until the 1997 Ford Escort is really dead, and we can't just up and move if we have a job where we are - besides, places with low cost of living are probably places with higher unemployment that drives that. But people will change their lives and they will move around. In the meantime, policy that acknowledges the overhead is about all we can do to make things reasonably "fair". And we can keep talking about what that means. |
2013-02-16T17:06:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17264 |
| Dan, thank you. Perhaps I should write more about how I've had to make it through lean times, although I said a lot a few years ago in the "On the Margin" series (on the right). I think it is important for those of us who are on the edge to share our stories and remove the stigma attached to it - it seems to me like a first step towards organizing and being recognized. You are right - many people burn themselves out quite young just trying to get by. It's a huge problem as they get to my age (47), still many years from retirement. How do we make it? Sometimes, it's a mystery. Sometimes it takes help. I like to joke that my financial adviser is Blanche duBois ("I have always depended on the kindness of strangers."). But it does seem to work out, at least mostly. Thank you again, we all need to talk about this a lot more. |
2013-02-16T01:15:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17259 |
| It's so. :-) | 2013-02-15T18:58:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17254 |
| The thing is, if people working still qualify for public assistance we have a problem. I agree that we shouldn't put public policy on the backs of small employers, but a reasonable threshold is justified. There is no reason that we should use public money to subsidize retail, which is essentially what we are doing now. Work should be encouraged, and if the pay is really low and doesn't get you off food stamps then what is the point of it? I do want to make this part of a trade-off. Lowering overhead is one thing, but making sure that small biz has the appropriate breaks to be able to fund this is quite reasonable, IMHO. I think there are ways to make this happen. |
2013-02-15T17:01:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17251 |
| Yes, Obama is at $9 and that is a big leap. I should have noted that in the piece. It's a lot better than $7.25 but we should make the case for a lot more - about double the increase he is proposing! I think a somewhat arbitrary standard is called for, yes, but once we agree on it we can go from there. So many things could be triggered by this standard, including benefits and so on. It would make a lot of sense. |
2013-02-15T16:47:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17249 |
| You can say bullshit in the comments. :-) Yes, a basic principle that people who work should be able to get by is pretty basic - I hope we can enshrine it as a standard for our world. | 2013-02-15T05:07:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/15/minimum-wage/#comment-17244 |
| There is little doubt that the Democrats have all the momentum right now - it's a matter of making something of it. Obama is much more in line with my thinking lately than he has been and I like this. I still want a New Deal, but other than that I think we're on the right path. The House leadership seems to understand at least some of this, too, IMHO. | 2013-02-14T22:26:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17241 |
| Excellent point on environmental protection, yes. That is where the Democratic coalition has fallen down in the past, and I hope we can keep it together. I think this is just the Democrats time. We're the ones who have the right solutions when there is a Depression. :-) |
2013-02-14T01:21:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17231 |
| I think Obama follows my lead, yes. :-) No, seriously - centrist Democrats do have a consistent philosophy and it's not hard to predict what they'll come up with. We, that is. Obama needs to be more inspiring, I agree. I don't know why he doesn't go out and sell his stuff more often. Democrats really need to be in the loop on this stuff, if for no other reason that it'll build the organization they'll need in the 2014 elections. |
2013-02-14T00:49:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17228 |
| He was ambitious, but I see this as building on the foundations laid in the last few years. I do think it's about time, and we have a strong path to deal with the debt we've accumulated - spending cuts, tax increases AND growth. Yes! | 2013-02-13T04:48:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17219 |
| It was a Democrat speech, yes. You wonder how we'll pay for it, too, eh? :-) | 2013-02-13T04:06:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17216 |
| Thanks. The money is an issue, but a lot of this stuff wasn't expensive. | 2013-02-13T04:06:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/13/state-of-the-union/#comment-17215 |
| Thanks! | 2013-02-13T02:41:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/11/whats-in-a-name-2/#comment-17212 |
| Thanks! | 2013-02-11T21:23:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/11/whats-in-a-name-2/#comment-17207 |
| I guess that's where I'm at now. Plus, it's Bryan. | 2013-02-11T19:13:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/11/whats-in-a-name-2/#comment-17205 |
| Thanks, I will do more! I need to mix it up some. | 2013-02-11T02:38:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/08/another-pledge-drive/#comment-17201 |
| Thanks! I can't do what I did for Minnesota because it's very hard to compare countries. But I might try and see what I can come up with. | 2013-02-08T21:37:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/08/another-pledge-drive/#comment-17192 |
| It's been two years! I thought I should try it again. MPR does pledge drives every few months. (no, it doesn't seem to work on a blog ...) |
2013-02-08T21:36:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/08/another-pledge-drive/#comment-17191 |
| That is very beautiful, thank you! It says St Paul in a way that words can't, especially in the grey of Winter. Thanks again! | 2013-02-07T16:24:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17167 |
| People are people, but cultures are cultures. I think this one has its tendencies for a good reason - every year we're humbled a bit and stuck being very anonymous. It's a theory. But of course, not everyone is like that. This has been a tough year for me, too, and not just because I had the flu for about 3 weeks! Maybe it's that we're spoiled, but a week hovering around 0F is pretty tough to take. |
2013-02-07T06:37:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17162 |
| It's my job, after all! :-) | 2013-02-06T03:43:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17153 |
| Anonymous - that is another feature of this culture, yes. It's much easier to be apart. It's funny. Another way to put this, of course, is "Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes" but I didn't want to get all Parrot Head on ya. :-) |
2013-02-06T03:43:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17152 |
| Thanks! | 2013-02-06T03:39:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/06/a-cold-humility/#comment-17151 |
| Four more years, I say. On the Depression part - four months on this Winter thang. :-) | 2013-02-04T20:34:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/04/gets-warmer-from-here/#comment-17140 |
| The general beef is that it overestimates, yes. There are several issues going on, but you hit the most important - they DO correlate pretty closely after a few months of revisions. The total number of jobs in the US is pretty close between the two of them, meaning it all does work out eventually. The other thing is that the ADP report is only private sector! There have been a lot of government jobs lost at all levels in the last 5 years (when we should have been adding them!) so the official report looks worse for that reason alone sometimes. The GDP figure is looking like a one-off event, but I don't think it's a total fluke. I know of some businesses that saw a drop off for Hurricane Sandy and, strangely, at the end of December. It may be very real but not continuing. We''ll see. Glad to know you can report solid growth - keeps you employed? :-) |
2013-02-04T18:06:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/04/gets-warmer-from-here/#comment-17136 |
| It took 5 years, but perhaps that's what's going on. I would have preferred a New Deal as well, but at least we aren't mired in austerity - and won't be unless the budget hawks get their way. | 2013-02-04T18:02:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/04/gets-warmer-from-here/#comment-17135 |
| Thanks. The GDP downturn was pretty bad - I hope it was just a fluke, but I can't help but think that there's a message in here somewhere. | 2013-02-04T05:07:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/04/gets-warmer-from-here/#comment-17120 |
| Thanks! I think this is a good framework for both personal and public policy, and I'll say more about that later. The goal is to get everyone thinking this way - those without enough as well as those with an awful lot of it. | 2013-02-01T22:30:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/01/money-is-a-tool/#comment-17108 |
| Thank you! I may use this as a jumping off point, yes. It summarizes a lot of things I have been talking about lately and does set up a new line. | 2013-02-01T04:12:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/01/money-is-a-tool/#comment-17084 |
| I have read other works by Ferguson, but I have yet to get to that one. Thank you! I will put it on my list. | 2013-02-01T03:42:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/02/01/money-is-a-tool/#comment-17081 |
| It caught me by surprise, and I don't like surprises like that. Hurricane Sandy was a huge deal, bigger than most people think, but that's not enough to explain it. There was a downturn at the end of December, something I know from small biz work I do, which may have something to do with the fiscal cliff. But these seem like lame excuses. Can't wait for the January job numbers - that will tell us if 4Q12 was a blip or something real. |
2013-01-31T19:30:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/30/it-works-out-because-of-the-bad-stuff/#comment-17067 |
| That is pretty much where I am at right now. | 2013-01-30T17:11:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/30/it-works-out-because-of-the-bad-stuff/#comment-17050 |
| Maybe. I do wonder about "fiat currencies" and what might possibly come to replace what we know now. Global hyperinflation would be an amazing phenom, and the way things are tied together it's hard to see how that would be avoided if, say, the US started that way. So as long as everything moves together - how can it really get moving? I do see a more gradual erosion until actual growth sets in. And, of course, if the velocity of money comes back we will have more inflation. |
2013-01-30T06:17:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/30/it-works-out-because-of-the-bad-stuff/#comment-17041 |
| Yes, not with a bang but a whimper. I do believe that collateral damage if major investment banks fail would be minimal, as they are not tied to the underlying economy. It seems more likely that inflation will continue to eat away at their share until they clearly don't matter anymore. | 2013-01-30T05:07:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/30/it-works-out-because-of-the-bad-stuff/#comment-17039 |
| Thanks! The reporting is probably skewed a bit, but it was clearly less academic than usual. I used to use it as a jumping off point, but this year seemed very different. | 2013-01-29T03:31:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17018 |
| What I need from you is the reality check here. I found that what was coming out of the Davos conference, at least as far as the BBC / Der Spiegel / Bloomberg folks that were reporting on it were concerned, was pretty much in line with what I've been saying for 4-5 years. And I'd like to know if my being in sync with that international school of economic thought is a reasonable thing or a really bad thing. You're my reality check on this stuff. Tell me, what do ya think? I'd really like to know. Oh, and if you knock Soros it won't bother me at all, but I've always liked Stiglitz. :-) Seriously - I could use some guidance here. I was originally going to riff off an article on inadequate measures of economic progress by the American Enterprise Institute but it fell flat after reading about Davos in so many places. |
2013-01-29T01:11:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17016 |
| Hey! It's my job to be pithy and a bit subtle! :-) | 2013-01-29T01:05:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17015 |
| I have zero idea what they say in private. Imagine the receptions and so on, too! I would love to be there, and not for the skiing! My hunch is that they have been saying things like this in private all along, but we'll never know. |
2013-01-28T19:27:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17012 |
| Well, yes, as a matter of fact, I think you are right in a certain way. It took this long for the wealthy to feel the pinch and/or get sick of a lack of low-risk investment opportunities. | 2013-01-28T19:26:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17011 |
| Very good questions, as always! :-) 1) In the past, it's been pretty academic from what I have seen. For example, the big show last year was a debate on whether capitalism is serving the 21st century economy http://www.weforum.org/videos/time-davos-debate-capitalism-annual-meeting-2012 Interesting as far as it went, but ... lacking in immediate relevance. 2) Solutions were hard to come by, yes. Stiglitz, for example, said that the US has to work much harder to make education opportunities available for everyone, but that seems very weak and old hat. All in all, I felt that this discussion would have been much stronger 4-5 years ago. It seems that Barataria has been ahead of them, which I would think they should be embarrassed about more than I should be proud. |
2013-01-28T15:53:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-17001 |
| Ha! Well, it won't stay bad forever, but there are tough challenges right now. I was really happy to see that Barataria has covered everything that was a topic at Davos already, so we're doing a good job here if I dare say so myself. But I don't want to look backwards too hard, and I am very glad that the leaders of the world are very realistic. | 2013-01-28T04:57:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/28/skiing-the-tough-slopes/#comment-16989 |
| You have a point, but we have to see how this develops. I can't believe Japan is going to be particularly aggressive no matter what. | 2013-01-26T16:59:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16938 |
| But Asia is a big place, so that's only reasonable. Plus, it has a lot of people and has gone through a lot of change in the last 100 years. If anything, it's been far more peaceful through the transition than Europe was. | 2013-01-26T01:40:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16931 |
| Ha! :-) I really am happy that Japan is doing something. I'm just a bit skeptical (though not as much as Anna). |
2013-01-25T22:42:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16928 |
| For the record, I was the one who surmised that they figure the worst case scenario isn't that bad - we don't know that they are that flippant about it. I think this comes down to a calculation that the world leadership is so weak that Japan can sneak through a devaluation and get back to exporting without anyone challenging them. While that is certainly true in the West, I think China has different ideas. The relationship with South Korea is stranger, given that Korea was Japan's odd-job shop for so long, doing the work that was designed and financed by Japanese - that may well completely turn around (at least if Samsung keeps this up!). It seems at least a little crazy, but it beats the path they are on now - slouching towards oblivion. 2012 was a pivotal year for them as it became obvious they are in a lot of trouble and the voters clearly demand action. |
2013-01-25T16:40:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16923 |
| Thank you very much! | 2013-01-25T05:12:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16912 |
| My understanding is that most of the nuclear power plants are back on, but the earthquake has permanently damaged northern Japan. The problem with your reasoning is that this is exactly how fascists gain power - and in a depression they have very ripe conditions. I agree it's understandable and I wish Abe and Japan the very best, but I hope this does not get crazy on them. |
2013-01-25T03:42:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/25/growth-hai-domo/#comment-16910 |
| Agreed. Of course, it's often a matter of what you're buying with the stimulus. The infrastructure deficit is an obvious place to start putting people to work. I often think about more modern budgeting where capital and expenses are separated. Would love to know what you think. I could see a requirement that the expense side is balanced, which is what Minnesota and (I think) most if not all states have. |
2013-01-25T00:05:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16908 |
| Thanks. The Economist poll of forecasts isn't a ton different in their outlook - which is not good. | 2013-01-25T00:03:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16906 |
| I've seen this. I believe that we will grow faster than projected, largely because I believe that Europe will have less influence on our economy than most fear. Exports to Europe will drop somewhat, but the "periphery" is far less tied to us than the much stronger UK/Germany/France - which will not fare quite as badly. I also think that our trade with Latin America will more than make up whatever we lose, and that our oil imports will continue to decline. I agree that Europe is a very sad story, and I do wish them all the success possible. But I can't see them getting out of this through austerity - we certainly didn't. They have to find a way to encourage growth in whatever system they develop. The big issue world-wide remains debt. I could see one or more major global investment banks failing in the next two years, but I'm pretty sure it won't mean a damned thing or have anywhere near the ripple effect anyone expects. I would still love to see a "Jubilee". |
2013-01-24T03:39:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16880 |
| Yes, we don't have that kind of work going on now. The deficit in re-investment is very chilling, IMHO, and it's more than just public infrastructure. (I also have a first addition of Carothers' collected papers, BTW. Great chemist, sadly unstable.) |
2013-01-23T22:15:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16878 |
| This time around, we are leading with smaller firms. I am looking to the time when bigger firms, buoyed by profits, start their share of the hiring. And I do think a lot of bigger companies are modernizing - and the small companies are startups that are new from scratch! One of the weird things about employment growth has been how steady the ADP numbers are, IMHO. About 140k per month, give or take just a little. That really should accelerate at some point - but it hasn't yet. Interesting overall, thank you. |
2013-01-23T22:14:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16877 |
| That would be the most likely place at this point, yes. Japan is a mess but no one seems to care. China could enter a real recession, but I have no idea what that would mean. And, of course, the momentum in Washington may stall. There are a lot of potential "bumps". | 2013-01-23T22:11:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16875 |
| I will look for better graphical data - it's been hard to find a good way to represent the (slow) progress. Corporate profits are essential, and yes, it will boost just about everything. Keep in mind that in a traditional recovery we see that rise first - not last, as we are now. But seeing profits return could show that we are entering a real "recovery", and I hope that accelerates job growth. Real estate boggles me completely. :-) I'll leave that up to the experts, but try to filter the enthusiasm as I can. It is improving, and in 2012 we definitely saw a rise off the bottom. |
2013-01-23T17:55:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16870 |
| Thanks. Yes, I will be watching that, but only report if I see a change. It's a pretty obscure stat that isn't reported widely. | 2013-01-23T17:52:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/23/keep-it-going/#comment-16869 |
| I'll just believe you 'cuz it sounds fun. :-) | 2013-01-21T22:08:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/21/after-the-party/#comment-16852 |
| I also wanted to hear what he had to say. Support for gay rights has never been in an inaugural speech before so that was something interesting. As I said far too often in this post, we'll see. :-) | 2013-01-21T20:49:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/21/after-the-party/#comment-16849 |
| Commentators used that word a lot, but I agree that his speech was less "combative" than "firm" or "resolute". But we had a pre-written narrative and that's how it went. We'll see. | 2013-01-21T20:48:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/21/after-the-party/#comment-16848 |
| Hey, Matt! This was in 1986 when I was interning with FP&L downtown during the summer away from Carnegie. Getting an engineering degree makes you eligible for interesting gigs sometimes - in this case, I got to understand power distribution. Was fun. A lot of great stories from that bizarre town. :-) | 2013-01-18T03:06:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/18/shadows-of-the-past/#comment-16817 |
| Thank you. Yes, we see far too much racism these days, although people don't show it as openly as they used to. Instead there's this careful dance around the topic that has to be done. Hard to say if the bad old days weren't better in some ways - at least no one could deny what the problem was. | 2013-01-18T03:04:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/18/shadows-of-the-past/#comment-16816 |
| Thank you, Alan. We've come to far to not keep the momentum. There's always more to do, but progress has been made. More to the point, we have proof that progress is always possible. | 2013-01-18T01:24:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/18/shadows-of-the-past/#comment-16813 |
| Yes, this is a hot topic today for many reasons. This post was just my few cents worth for a number of reasons. It also ties together a few things about the future. | 2013-01-17T22:58:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/16/managing-innovation/#comment-16811 |
| Banking should be boring. I think you win. :-) |
2013-01-17T03:33:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/16/managing-innovation/#comment-16801 |
| ENTP for me. I also think this is critical, especially on teams. If nothing else, people need to be aware of how to interact with each other. It's also critical to know how you and your teammates learn - the Howard Gardner Multiple Intelligences theory. That seems grossly under-appreciated to me. | 2013-01-16T05:11:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/16/managing-innovation/#comment-16796 |
| Yes! This is an area where the Free Market works - at least mostly. You try to run a company with a "Quiet Life" and get publicly traded - it can't happen these days. If you try to build up a pile of cash to get you through from one invention to the next you're a takeover target. Without that cash, investors will trash you. (unless you are in information/internet tech and become kewl, that is) We're doing well, but I do think we should do what we can to make for more quiet corporations that can look to the long term. Which is, not so incidentally, something I wrote about earlier this week. :-) So it is a social thang after all, at least if we want the Free Market to do an even better job than it is now. |
2013-01-16T04:03:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/16/managing-innovation/#comment-16794 |
| A lot of those US filings are by foreigners (I've helped a few! :-) ) So it's hard to say. Yes, real innovation is a matter of dedicated industrial research most of the time. It involves crews of people working together, usually very close to sales staff (who identify needs) and/or production (where the stuff has to be made). Losing production facilities overseas really impedes a lot of industrial research in the US. The other thing that is very important is that a company has to be set up for a "quiet life". It can't live quarter to quarter and expect real innovation to define it. Our current values in the market simply do not generate the kind of patient capital on a large scale that is necessary for big, new things - but we do innovate small things that require little capital well. What makes researchers happy? They are rarely motivated by money. Most like a spirit of competition and "playtime", and need a very skilled management team to stay focused. But they typically like a very quiet life, too, where they get to do what they are best at. It's a tricky thing, something I've thought about writing about more. Now that we've determined this is the main engine of growth a decade from now perhaps it's probably worth some more thought and organization. |
2013-01-15T03:27:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16779 |
| I am working on it. I was drawing a real wall at 2017, when the "Spring" arrives, but I think I can envision it now. The most important things to me are not the individual technologies, which I would never want to predict, but how technology will be the only real engine of growth - and what that means. | 2013-01-14T22:27:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16777 |
| I think the "Dime Store New Deal" was a healthy exercise. Even when one party is clearly right on the direction, the other party can be very useful by saying, "Yes, but ..." and proposing a more moderate version or getting the voice of their own affected constituency into the debate. I miss those Republicans and wish they were around to make better decisions. Then again, I wish the Democrats were bold enough to need moderation. The desire to avoid another WWI was genuine and good, but the practice was horrible. There is a lesson there for people like me. The world is not "perfectible", but things can always be better. There's a yin and a yang to it. Those lessons are worth remembering through today's turmoil. |
2013-01-14T22:25:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16776 |
| Funny, my daughter gets all wistful about the War years and how everyone was working together. I told her to be careful what she wishes for. Also, her grandparents got her on track as to how awful everything was with the anxiety. As for Big Bands, don't get me started - another one of those strange things I'm into that I never, ever talk with a date about. :-) Seriously, I don't know anyone who doesn't think this is a kind of Depression, at least. But we're sure not acting like it nor working together. It does seem strange. |
2013-01-14T19:19:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16772 |
| I didn't mean to say it was a big change, per se, but I can see things going that direction. Thanks for the support on Credit Unions - that wasn't exactly what I meant, but I can see that it is more or less what it happening. And yes, the less said about investment banks the better, IMHO. | 2013-01-14T19:16:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16771 |
| That reminds me - I have to buy a lottery ticket. Well, maybe not "have to". :-) | 2013-01-14T19:15:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16770 |
| I wanted to dig up info on Credit Unions but I have had trouble finding reliable info. I do suppose they are growing largely because everyone I know banks with one now (and I do mean everyone!). You too? The idea of a bank as a partner is standard small-town procedure so this isn't really a foreign idea (perhaps I was being provocative!) but I can see it changing. The increase in profits that we see is consistent with things happening at a small scale generally in the economy. The way I see this is that 2012 was the year we built the base, 2013 is the year that it should take off. I also see this Depression era as the time when the world evened out, and after 2017 is the time when the new economy is defined. It all comes in stages. But small banks are definitely the ones profiting now and they will definitely be the ones that drive whatever happens. JP Morgan? Seriously, I can't help but think that the sooner they fail, the better. Too big? Naw. Eff 'em. |
2013-01-14T17:23:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16766 |
| Ha! If only it was a mutual relationship. :-) | 2013-01-14T17:19:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16765 |
| Polonius had a lot to say. :-) | 2013-01-14T15:32:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/14/with-a-moslem-beat/#comment-16760 |
| Yes, that is the problem. I am looking into Islamic Banking as an answer. :-) I may write about this on Monday, not sure yet. But yes, it means that we have to re-think everything we do now. I included a link to this above, but I'm starting to think it's even more important - it's what I call The Beatles Effect, where an old idea from one nation goes dormant and then comes back to it from another place, changed slightly. I think that the developing world is going to have a lot to teach us about how to run a "sustained" economy. I also may have to bring the concept of Resiliency back into the discussion. I need help putting this all together in an eBook! :-) | 2013-01-12T01:30:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16735 |
| It may work out. When I wrote this I was not optimistic at all, given what this means to our entire financial and corporate structure as we know it. No growth very much upends nearly everything. However, on a personal level, people may adjust very well and, as Anna pointed out, actually be scarce. It might be very good. I am about ready to suggest ways we can make a Golden Era of a kind - not just end this Depression. How's that? |
2013-01-11T20:33:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16731 |
| An excellent point! There is a big upside to this. This could be the antidote to the book The Coming Jobs War which I wrote about before. A shortage of labor is a good thing all around in some ways. Let me throw something else out there, too, given that gasoline is now under $3 a gallon here. With the US looking to lead the world in oil production we will be in a very unique position to take advantage of the new stability if we put our minds to it. If only the US Dollar would drop to make our manufacturing look cheaper - no, wait, Congress is already screwing with that. :-) Seriously, there may be a bunch of things that fall into place in the 2020s that make for a real boom, I agree! But it won't be like past booms in many ways, and it will be more about sustainability. Good comments all around here, thank you! | 2013-01-11T16:18:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16726 |
| Dan, you are right - the first thing to think about is what do we really need that is labor intensive and work out from there. Updating infrastructure is a big need all around the world and that will take labor. But I can see that a lot of what will drive the economy will be more capital intensive in the future, and how we handle that is a big issue, IMHO. It's all starting to remind me of Kurt Vonnegut's first novel, "Player Piano", in which everyone who does not get an engineering degree has 2 choices - the Army or the "Reconstruction and Reclamation Corps". You're on the right track, no doubt. What will need people in the future? | 2013-01-11T16:14:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16725 |
| Thanks (and you can swear in the comments, I don't mind :-) ) Yes, it proves that our politics is (cow puckey). :-) |
2013-01-11T04:58:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16714 |
| Exactly. I tried to envision it, but that seemed way beyond a reasonable article on the scope of the problem (not to mention my own imagination). My kids will have to deal with it, though. I'll say it here - Marx had a bit more to say about this than most people. His stuff is 150 years old or more, but it's worth re-reading. No, I don't expect that will sit well with a lot of people - especially given the nonsense that has built up around his teachings (on both sides of the politics). |
2013-01-11T03:54:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/11/growth-is-good/#comment-16712 |
| Thanks! I am working on something like a series on this. | 2013-01-09T22:22:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/09/a-new-generations-prospects/#comment-16702 |
| Not blaming anyone! But keep in mind my generation had a hard time early on (1980s recessions) and we had to figure out what to do with ourselves. It was tough, but we made it. As for the EIC being evil, well, I think "indifferent" is probably more accurate. Granted, that's also pretty lousy, but I don't think anyone is out to deliberately defraud college kids. |
2013-01-09T20:47:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/09/a-new-generations-prospects/#comment-16700 |
| That would be very cool, yes. Continuing ed is something I didn't write about, but it does factor into this. | 2013-01-09T16:41:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/09/a-new-generations-prospects/#comment-16694 |
| I don't know how much is on the kids themselves in this problem. If highly relevant programs aren't available then more school may not make sense. I largely agree on tech schools, however. Most of those lead directly to work. |
2013-01-09T16:40:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/09/a-new-generations-prospects/#comment-16693 |
| That's one of the areas Garry Wills didn't cover in "Certain Trumpets", but you are very right. W Edwards Demming is who comes to mind as the most recent leader worthy of note - got Japan together after WWII and preached Just In Time to the US. This October, incidentally, is the 100th anniversary of Ford turning on his assembly line for the first time. We could use another Henry Ford. |
2013-01-08T18:02:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16683 |
| I volunteer! :-) Seriously, you are right on. And every Senator should find a "buddy" from the other party to just have a few beverages of their choice with at least once a week. |
2013-01-08T06:23:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16676 |
| We haven't had a leader with both charisma and substance in a long time. All the men you named did. They exist in other nations - particularly developing nations - but not here. Obama might yet be a candidate, but he isn't really pushing for anything big or showing a lot of leadership. It is probably time for one again. That's part of why I wrote this - I want to encourage us all to think about leadership and maybe something good will bubble up from places as yet unknown. (so I'm a hopeless Romantic, sue me!) |
2013-01-08T04:58:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16674 |
| Yes, it is all about networking - which is to say that class structures are hardening and genuine opportunities to rise are closing down rapidly. It's completely un-American by just about any measure and it makes me sick. But none of this is Obama's fault - nor really the Republicans, either. This is a business cycle. How we respond to this is up to us and there is a lot of blame to go around here. I find Obama more flexible and open, so I am on his side. But we don't have the Next New Deal that I really think should have been done. |
2013-01-08T04:55:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16673 |
| Applause! Thank you for that great comment. Yes, the greatest resource of this or any other nation is nothing more nor less than the hearts and arms and brains of its workers. That is especially true of the young - those with the strongest hearts, the most tireless arms, and the most inventive brains among us. I didn't phrase this in terms of hope - or the promise of hope. The young people I know are not all that resentful at this point, but they also do not seem to have a lot of hope. They seem very resigned and practical. That isn't very good, all in all. But they do believe in progress, and I think that many believe that they can create a better world. I think it is time to get my kids on here to speak for themselves and their (as yet un-named) generation. Before I do, I'll speak a little bit based on what I know of them (and anyone with a different view please correct me!). Your concluding paragraph is right on and I want to highlight it. There's a Republican tone to it, but I promise you that it would resonate well with the young Obama generation that I know as well. What they want is a restructuring towards a world that looks ahead and promotes genuine opportunity - not a handout. They don't want to default on the debt they are incurring, but they also do not understand why it is falling to them to fix it. Part of me can't wait to take over and run things. Let's get that happening, IMHO! |
2013-01-07T19:50:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16667 |
| Yes, this should be watched closely. I haven't been watching it lately and that was probably a mistake - but it appears I didn't miss much. I think this is what to watch and what to insist on when we talk about growth. | 2013-01-07T19:40:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16666 |
| Jim, I want to refer you back to my conversations with the kids now in High School that I wrote about here. It's been over a year since I wrote from their perspective, but little has changed. They understand this completely, and want advice about how to get a J-O-B and not even a "career". They are very realistic, I've found in my small sample. I'm going to follow this more closely for a while, but I thought today we should have an over-view. As Smithson has noted, I've been very happy over the last year that the economy is growing - but people are being left behind. It's a real problem. Yes, get these kids to Tech Schools! By all means. They will learn very valuable skills no matter what happens later in life. I am going to stay on this more closely now that I can see the problem. 15 months between posts on the topic is not good - especially now that we've established that the broader economy is making its own momentum. | 2013-01-07T17:20:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16661 |
| That is what I worry about the most, yes. But if things do change completely, perhaps a lack of experience will be OK. Something tells me that a whole generation not schooled in the old ways means massive change is indeed ahead - once they get things going. But first they need to have an opportunity of some kind. It will probably have to be created from scratch, so it's only reasonable that it takes time. This is a good time to say that money is not limiting opportunity right now - interest rates are very low and $2T or so is on deposit at the Fed. But these kids who are unemployed are a lot of energy being wasted and that is not good. |
2013-01-07T17:14:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/07/next-generation-waiting/#comment-16660 |
| I never know what to think about Unca Joe. I am glad he's there, though - he seems to keep it all real in an otherwise rather intellectual administration. :-) | 2013-01-07T17:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16659 |
| It would be great to run a machine! Nice work if you can get it. But, alas, I think those daze are over. :-) No, seriously, it's just as well that this stuff is gone. The downside of corruption (as you pointed out with RFK/Daley) is obvious, but on the upside the bosses were able to tell people when their career was over because they screwed up too many times. Wouldn't it be great if someone told Michele Bachmann that it was time to go? There are a lot of good conservatives in that district who would be able to represent it well, do actual constituent service (Oh my!) and generally be much more effective as part of a team. A "boss" could do MN6 some good. Something to think about, eh? |
2013-01-06T18:29:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16650 |
| Thank you, I am thinking about this a bit. I don't think we can continue as we are now for very long, however, and part of why I wrote this is that I anticipate new leadership rising, perhaps "Mr Smith Goes to Washington" style. | 2013-01-05T20:47:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16643 |
| Funny you should mention this - I am distantly related to Truman and my neighbor not so distantly to Pendergast. :-) That aside, I did leave out ethics and that is a glaring omission. At there very least there has to be a moral completeness - cult leadership isn't ethical but it has its own code. How about this - we're developing a list of important qualities of leadership, and a leader has to have at least some of these elements present: Strategic Thinking Charisma Morality Conviction I am now going to go back to read my favorite book on this subject, "Certain Trumpets" by Garry Wills. He breaks down different kinds of leader and presents an archetype and an antitype - for example, under "Military Leader" he has Napoleon and George McClellan, and under "Electoral Leader" has has FDR and Adlai Stevenson. |
2013-01-05T18:08:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16639 |
| I really do hope it works for him. He seems like an OK guy, even though I disagree with him. But House Repubs have often been a strangely unruly lot, going back to Bob Michel & Newt Gingrich at least. | 2013-01-05T18:02:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16637 |
| That is definitely true of the "Charisma" definition of leadership - I don't think anyone can really be taught that (but it can be refined and improved to the next level). I realize what I'm advocating here is unusual at best, but a world well versed in the methods of leadership is one I would like to see, at least. |
2013-01-05T18:01:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16636 |
| OK, fine. Let's teach strategy to everyone, especially our kids (and I do my best to teach this to my kids!). Where people don't "get it" they should at least be able to recognize when others do, and can show the way. That gets around a lot of BS at least. Is that a fair compromise? |
2013-01-04T04:47:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16625 |
| Yes, the whole developed world. It's a huge problem. Angela Merkel, for example, is a very skilled politician who is only looking out for herself, IMHO. It's a serious problem everywhere - but we all rode the same waves and we all got fat and happy together. Yes, I mean that leadership has to rise from the bottom. Why not? I think that's how it naturally does. :-) |
2013-01-04T03:40:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16623 |
| Yes, I want to move away from the idea that leadership is charismatic and into a more democratic (small "d") view of it. We all can provide leadership in our own ways. I am hard on Occupy because I think it has to be much more than "raising awareness". We need very real change - and the landscape ahead of us is changing very rapidly. That makes people scared and breaks a lot of easy ways out. So what do we do? Crawl back inside of pleasant sounding aphorisms like the Tea Party wants? Their anxiety is real and shared by many, but they don't offer a solution, either. Should Obama be more? Maybe. I think we should, first. Then I'll rag on Obama. :-) |
2013-01-04T03:38:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/04/leadership-as-strategy/#comment-16622 |
| Yeah, Ryan is OK and I don't care what anyone says. I may not like his Medicare reform plan but it's the only one out there that addresses the problem - and it's really not that bad, considering. Leadership is what counts. I'm thinking about what to say on that right now. :-) |
2013-01-04T00:28:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16617 |
| They have two months to redeem themselves, IMHO. Honestly, the more I look at this the more I don't blame the Republicans for being pissy about it - the cuts were all delayed. But ... that's the way this went down. It's been just plain strange and a "grand deal" really is the only thing that will make sense in the end. Two months? Good luck. |
2013-01-03T22:38:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16615 |
| Ha! :-) I'm glad nothing happened to him. Chaos doesn't suit anyone at this time, IMHO. | 2013-01-03T22:36:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16614 |
| Well, as a Toaist I'm never one for "good" or "evil" so I would have to agree with you (I think). :-) The three-way negotiations would be good, but I think Boehner would feel out-numbered. I have no idea how they will do it. The recent poll that showed 53% of all Americans find the Republican Party "too extreme" also found 51% that favor divided government. So not only is this done on purpose, it shows that people don't exactly like the Democrats (which 37% of all Americans found "too extreme) in charge of everything. So that appears to be the real issue, indeed. |
2013-01-03T22:35:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16613 |
| Yup. | 2013-01-03T22:32:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16612 |
| It's not all Republicans, just the House. I should probably add that I have to take back all the bad stuff I've said about Mitch McConnell (and there was a lot of it!) :-) | 2013-01-02T18:48:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16599 |
| The vote is in - despite the Senate, where Republicans voted for the bill, it was up to House Democrats to pass this thing. Repubs were against it, 147-80, which makes me wonder what Boehner's future is now. | 2013-01-02T03:59:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2013/01/02/happy-stuff/#comment-16585 |
| Poxes all around! :-) | 2013-01-01T01:14:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16576 |
| Ha! You can have 'em both. Also Reid and McConnell. Poxes all around! :-) | 2012-12-31T17:03:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16574 |
| This you will have to explain to me. :-) | 2012-12-31T15:27:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16572 |
| Everything is not getting done, I think. Sigh. | 2012-12-31T04:31:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16568 |
| Excellent, if incredibly cynical, observation. I discovered this story while digging around to find out what else expired on 31 December, knowing there had to be more. Sigh. | 2012-12-31T04:31:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/31/yes-it-can-get-worse/#comment-16567 |
| Let me take that as more of a challenge. What fascinates me about this story is that it has gone unreported elsewhere. Plus, the nature of the jobs gain, especially leading economic growth, underlines that this is an event better called "Depression". OK, let's have a resolution for 2013, then. What can be done for those who are being left behind - because as well (or marginally) as things are going the hard part is going to be coming up later. Who is left behind? What will it take to get them into this economy? I can think of two groups right away that are worth focusing on. The first are the young, which I have commented on before. The other group are those over about 50 who find themselves out of work. Here is the deal - finding good, useful information on these two groups will be hard. But I will try to do it. So I agree that we've beaten the "slow, steady growth" to death at this point. I think we have identified the source of this growth and know what to look for if it is to continue. How could this growth expand to be more inclusive? A better story. |
2012-12-29T19:19:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16555 |
| I agree that this is no surprise, but what I think is important is that it is the base on which we will continue to grow into 2013, yes. I predict more solid economic growth - ASSUMING the feds don't mess things up. That's the one big variable here and the real reason I can't make a solid prediction yet. Thanks for your comments on employers. It would be good to look into, I think. There were some very interesting things on hiring/retaining talent on the ADP site that I was thinking about sharing, too. |
2012-12-28T18:10:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16546 |
| Well, I don't want to ban football, but it's clear that our awareness of the problem has increased dramatically and we now know just how bad it is. They're working on it, and I hope good solutions can be found. In the meantime, yes, antique music goes well with beer, too. :-) | 2012-12-28T16:01:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16542 |
| Good point. I keep meaning to do some more research on overhead per employee, for example. I've been talking to employers about what they have to go through and it does seem that it might be streamlined a bit. | 2012-12-28T03:39:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16529 |
| Yes, I don't think this is way out of the expected but it is important. Thanks! | 2012-12-28T03:37:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/28/the-small-story-of-2012/#comment-16528 |
| Thank you. It's good to know that this isn't such a radical idea anymore. I think we should speak in clear, calm voices about the need to simply get a handle on what we are doing and start turning the volume down a bit. Here is the 2nd Amendment in its entirety: "A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." Note that this is not an unqualified right, like freedom of press or speech. The need for order (regulation) is spelled out clearly. IMHO that's what we need to push for - more order. I can't see that this would be unconstitutional. |
2012-12-26T17:09:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16503 |
| Interesting take, but a game of cat and mouse with manufacturers of guns seems like a lot of effort. More than anything, I want to encourage responsible gun owners to back away from the NRA and work with each other. Laws can only go so far - although an outright ban on all guns would be interesting. I can't see it working, however. Let's see where this goes. |
2012-12-26T16:59:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16502 |
| That's fair given that the proof is always in what we actually get done. I do think we have to push this because the politicians can't get it done on their own - they need pressure all around. But if you want to see what is proposed and what we need to get behind I can see that. Let's be ready for a fight in either case, OK? | 2012-12-26T16:57:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16501 |
| Thank you for that story. It makes me sick just to think about it, frankly. We have to overcome the NRA if this is really all they have to offer. So how do we change the culture? I don't know, honestly. Michael Moore has had a lot to offer on this and I respect his thoughts. But we have to keep it up. Something is wrong at the very core of who we are, IMHO. Thank you again, I really appreciate what you have to say here. |
2012-12-26T03:55:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16493 |
| Ammunition regulation is something I have trouble contemplating, because people could still go from store to store. I want any new laws to be ones that are hard to get around and are thus respected. That's hard to contemplate, frankly, but we can put our heads into it. I still want whatever happens to be more about changing the culture and not just laws. The NRA has shown that they are part of the problem - given that all they have to offer is more armament. |
2012-12-26T03:52:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/26/say-can-you-see/#comment-16492 |
| Thank you, and Merry Christmas! | 2012-12-25T20:54:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/24/let-christmas-come/#comment-16487 |
| Thank you, Merry Christmas! | 2012-12-24T03:55:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/24/let-christmas-come/#comment-16470 |
| Merry Christmas, and bless you, too! Thank you. | 2012-12-24T02:22:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/24/let-christmas-come/#comment-16467 |
| Thank you, it was all that came to me today. | 2012-12-24T02:21:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/24/let-christmas-come/#comment-16466 |
| There is a lot more drama coming up in the next week. I wrote this post so that it will explain what happens in the end, not right now - and thus will stand up to time a bit better. It's part of my tagline - "I don't break news, I fix it". :-) | 2012-12-21T19:10:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16446 |
| Yes, and yes! I used to think a grand compromise was called for here, but the more I think about it taking care of some of the details and then committing to a bigger deal over the next few months is ideal. Or they could just punt completely - Wall Street may not like what you propose, but this calls for a lot more discussion than we've had. I feel like we only really got started in December - but it's been a fun ride since then. :-) |
2012-12-21T16:11:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16443 |
| Amen. It's a great standard to live up to. I do see a lot of openness so far in these negotiations, which may actually be hampering them (though I took it as a sign that this really was just the posturing phase and the work was done). But they are engaging people in the hard decisions that they are making. And that is very good, no doubt. We have to keep talking (see next response) and we have to have a clear, open understanding of our priorities as a nation if we're going to meet them adequately. So, yes, this is the messy part. I really think it's going to get messier yet. But it'll work out. :-) Thanks for that perspective, it's a good one! |
2012-12-21T16:09:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16442 |
| Their hand only gets weaker with time. Enough of them know it that, with Dem support, there will be a deal. But Boehner has now been locked out and is very weak. I didn't predict what happens after this because I really have no idea. Will Boehner get bounced? It's unlikely, but he is looking pretty bad about now. |
2012-12-21T03:30:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16428 |
| The final package will have to include Dems. And Boehner knows it now. This was a test vote and they couldn't even get it to happen. Think about all the Wall Street guys who gave many digits who are making phone calls late into tonight - they won't let this go. It's just getting interesting, is all. |
2012-12-21T03:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/21/nothing-stupid-right/#comment-16426 |
| Our nation did change as immigrants came in, particularly Catholics. The history of Christmas seems very complex and worthy of a lot more research than I've put into it so far. Just here in America it's clearly changed a lot! And yes, the way we drink and why is interesting. My daughter is into "The Twilight Zone", and one of the most interesting features is that people often come into a bar that has no tap handles and about 5 kinds of whiskey to get a drink. It was a very different world. Today there are so many beers and yes, women drink beer and men drink wine. It's all OK. There are zillions of mixed drinks, too. Much more social. But it's also more of an event, not something you just do on the way home from work. Another topic worthy of a longer piece, eh? |
2012-12-20T16:02:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16417 |
| The greeting is now "Have a Happy Merry!" :-) Yes, let's light a bunch of candles and have a warm glow to sit in quietly while we have tea (or something stronger). It makes for a great holiday. |
2012-12-20T15:58:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16415 |
| That is just beautiful! For the record, your dad was about the coolest adult I knew as a kid, and he's the one that took us to see "Life of Brian" in the theater - back when that's where we saw movies (that's the way it was and we liked it). Thank you. I am sooo going to use that. :-) |
2012-12-20T15:57:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16414 |
| Yes, all of them! Why the Hell not? Thanks. :-) | 2012-12-19T04:48:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16389 |
| Thanks! I find it utterly bizarre and ahistoric. Protestants defending Christmas? What? | 2012-12-19T03:42:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16387 |
| Thanks, I agree. It's the best excuse for a party there is, and that's the real ancient tradition. Part of the reason that Puritans and other Protestants actually banned Christmas is that it was always a drinking holiday. Eh, screw them. :-) | 2012-12-19T02:03:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/19/light-a-single-candle/#comment-16385 |
| We can be thankful that political violence is pretty rare, yes. Many nations have gone through at least spasms of this - including western nations we think of as peaceful, like Ireland. But yes, I don't profess a lot of answers. I am offering a new perspective that focuses on the very foundations of our culture. Perhaps it's too much, perhaps it's not useful, perhaps it is simply not right. I offer what I can to get us to talk about this and form something more cohesive as a people, because we are a people. We are Americans, and that is a very noble calling of very high ideals when we live up to it. I want to see that again. I want my kids to live in that nation, not the one we have now. Continuous improvement has marked our history, and I hope we know what we have to do to make this better now. If not - can we at least talk? |
2012-12-19T01:32:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16383 |
| I have long thought that bolt action rifles might well be a good standard for hunting, yes. That's a very hard sell, but it does seem to favor better shots than the casual hunter that doesn't really know what they are doing. It may even cut down on hunting accidents, which are very common. But this is a big, long tangent. It'll take time to explore. |
2012-12-18T06:24:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16363 |
| You are right, we are not totally lost. It will take time to learn the lessons of this horrible event, so it's best to ignore the nooze cycle and wait until there is something beyond the senselessness. But I think we might very well learn something here, and perhaps do something. Yes, we're not totally lost. Sure, let's build on that. | 2012-12-18T06:22:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16362 |
| Thank you. I hope we can all talk about this a lot more. | 2012-12-17T19:11:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16353 |
| OK, I accept that. A well-written gun control law could save a number of lives, for sure. Making clips no bigger than 10 rounds seems to be an idea that is catching on rapidly, and there would have been fewer deaths. But yes, the mental health picture is very important - and as it stands now I can't even imagine how we could handle that effectively given a starting point of the hopeless ineffective "system" we have now. |
2012-12-17T18:50:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16351 |
| Good points. I have always thought that when we feel like government has to do something that the world is too bizzy or selfish to take care of on its own, there has been a failure. Sometimes we have to acknowledge our failures and get on with things, making sure the vulnerable are protected and our world is not unecessarily nasty. But it is still a failure. I am seeking a solution where we, as a people, are less angry and suspicious, more hopeful and compassionate. A "system" would be a terrible way to handle this problem, which I think is much more at the core of who we are as a people. Let's just be kind to each other and leave the government out as much as we can, please? |
2012-12-17T18:45:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16349 |
| My kids compared it to 9/11, too, though none of them are quite old enough to remember that. I do agree that the less we say about the killer the better. "Breakfast" is a difficult work - it's about perspective and standing a bit outside of yourself. It's much like my call for exstasism this year - being beyond self. It is a topic I have been writing on more and more, and I think I will continue to refer back to. | 2012-12-17T15:39:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16339 |
| A little more research has found that the Violence Policy Center, which was highly critical of the original "assault weapons" ban of 1994, has proposed legislation that does seem to address the kind of weapon used in Newtown: http://www.vpc.org/studies/USofAW.htm This will save lives, I am sure. However, I cannot see that it will eliminate violence as long as the sickness remains. Without making too fine of a point of it, shotguns are also very effective killing devices - they have simply not been favored by the mentally ill who want to go on a killing spree. There are other fundamental issues that I do believe must be addressed to end the killing. |
2012-12-17T05:15:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16322 |
| Dale, what is an "assault rifle"? The definition is a short barrel rifle that uses small caliber (.30 or less) that fires in multiple round bursts (and/or fully automatic). The rifle used here was not fully automatic, and does not meet that definition. Should we ban all small barrel rifles, then? A somewhat persistent nut could saw it down, but that might deter some. Small calibre ammo a problem? I'd hate to ban .22s or other varmint rifles. Writing effective legislation means a legal definition needs to be crafted - Sen. Feinstein has said she will do so, and I await her effort. Beyond that, we need a movement that supports any effort that can lobby effectively and make reasonable demands, too - and that takes being informed on the issue. I am afraid that any effective gun control legislation has always foundered on the simple fact that those who push it have been very sloppy and imprecise, not focusing on a specific, definable topic. I am in favor of licensing gun ownership much like a car, for example, and think that is only reasonable - but that probably would not have stopped this tragedy based on what I've heard so far. Short of getting rid of all guns, this will continue until we address the root of the problem - our lust for violence. We might be able to save some people with good legislation, but only if it is well written and enforceable. Universal mental health support would also save some lives, so we can work on that. But please, let's also do what we can about the fear, anger, selfishness, and disconnect at the source of all this. |
2012-12-17T04:36:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16321 |
| Yes, I agree. Understanding how and when intervention is necessary would be a great help. At the very least, mental health services should be much easier to obtain. We can only imagine how many would be saved by a small amount of compassion. | 2012-12-17T04:28:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/17/emptiness-at-the-core/#comment-16320 |
| Yes, that's all I'm saying. And I guess that a 2% across the board cut in real terms would also take care of the problem. What can be privatized? I don't see any big items that would make a big difference. County hospitals might be the easiest target, but I can't see how it would make a big difference to the budget in the end - we'd still pay for services given to those who can't pay. There isn't much for liquor stores or electric co-ops in Minnesota, for example. Pennsylvania could (and I would say should) get out of the liquor biz but we aren't in it. I'll think about privatizing and where it might actually save. My first thought is that no, it wouldn't change a thing. I'm glad you are focusing on the 17%, BTW, because it is the bottom line and it is a number that, as you said, is a bit high but not really high. It seems rather balanced to me, especially when you dig into it. I would hope you would find it high and my more liberal friends would say it's too low. :-) |
2012-12-16T18:30:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16315 |
| You're right - I have to identify whatever tax cuts or increased expenditures created the imbalance. I'll look for that and see what I can find I believe there were tax cuts during the Pawlenty / Republican Legislative era that account for it, given the regressivitiy of the tax incidence that was not there before, but I'll look. Fair enough. |
2012-12-16T18:25:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16314 |
| And I took the extra step of noting your disagreement in this post because I understand that this is not universally accepted. Also, I tried to make it clear that raising taxes on the top two deciles is what I expect to be proposed, but I'll say it here - that is not the only possible solution. It is always possible to cut even if you do believe me that it's a $1B structural problem. But - and I'm pretty sure this is a good prediction - the tax increase is very likely to be the way it will be plugged. If there is no structural deficit, I am against raising taxes UNLESS a very clear and pressing need is identified that we are not taking care of now. However, any kind of reform that might be proposed can and, IMHO, should work towards at least making the overall tax incidence flat - if not progressive. I am not calling for a tax increase simply to have a tax increase - that would be ridiculous. I expect a tax increase because I see a serious problem in the forecast that the DFL Legislature will have to fix. Your mileage, apparently, differs. | 2012-12-14T23:55:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16295 |
| I see the issue now. It's way simpler than you think. The forecast is required by law to take inflation into account for future revenues but NOT for future expenses. So everything is off by about 2% a year. That is the $1B gap. It's that the forecasts are simply wrong, and everyone knows it. They were forced to be that way. It's really that stupid. |
2012-12-14T21:28:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16290 |
| Me, too. It's really weird how close we are. That's why I thought I'd take up Dale's challenge of looking at a few other states - are they all the same? That would be stranger yet. | 2012-12-14T18:19:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16276 |
| First of all, I think we agree that going back to Carlson's 1998 budget is far enough for any reasonable comparison. That's the last year I have excellent data available for (I'm guessing the first year a lot of this stuff was put on the web!). The accounting shifts have been written about elsewhere and I haven't really said much about it. The idea that you would promise money next year as a way of balancing this year does seem very desperate - and more than a bit gutless. The use of budget reserves doesn't bother me so much because the "Rainy Day Fund" was always in place for an event like 2008-2010 - although now we should look at repaying it when we can. How should we handle inflation? First of all, I want no laws restricting how a budget forecast can be done - except maybe requiring them to list all their assumptions up front so we know what went into it (although you don't really have to legislate that, either). There was a proposal back under Perpich that every agency would be "sunsetted" every (I think) 4 years on a rolling calendar and put on a zero-base budget - start from scratch. The DFL hated this, but I think it was an excellent idea all around. I would support that as the way to be sure that we don't just keep growing mindlessly. It takes some work, but it seems reasonable. Mostly, at this point, I want to hear what Dayton wants for major reform - he's been talking about it for a long time but been short on details. I want to respond to his proposal because there is a lot that can be done - but with these posts I've come to understand the rough bounds. |
2012-12-14T17:26:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16271 |
| I hear ya on the stadium. Dayton held a meeting to discuss ways of getting the viddy gaming revenue up where they need it to be, about double what it's coming in at now. Great. Just wonderful. | 2012-12-14T04:47:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16247 |
| I'll look into Wisconsin when I get a chance. I'll bet it's really similar. :-) Thanks! | 2012-12-14T04:46:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16246 |
| Yes, you hit on my main point here - cutting "welfare" or "PCA" will not save us a damned thing in terms of the budget. You want big savings? Cut K-12 or nursing homes. Go ahead, do it. Dayton is signalling that he wants major reform - which will include cuts here and there, swaps, and probably still a rise in rates at the top end. I think it's largely justified and I am waiting for the details. I think it's good to hold him to his original promises and if he really can find some areas to cut then explain why they can be left behind. But as a baseline, there is nothing way out of whack in this budget. I am a bit surprised, to be honest. I thought that over the years it got way more effed up than it did in bulk. It's good to know this going into the session as the spin machines start up. You do realize I'm setting a baseline for a zillion future arguments that I can imagine coming, yes? :-) |
2012-12-14T04:05:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/14/where-does-minnesotas-money-go/#comment-16243 |
| I'm not saying there isn't a difference - of course there is! But what's new is always more interesting to me, especially if it looks like a developing trend that will be around for a while. A pragmatic centrist alliance seems like a longshot at best, but I'll keep looking for it just in case. | 2012-12-13T23:16:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/12/its-all-good-except-the-bad-stuff/#comment-16241 |
| I think that pragmatists will win, too, but it's coming way closer to the wire than I'm comfortable with. Perhaps this experience will build some friendships and alliances that will be important later. | 2012-12-13T22:37:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/12/its-all-good-except-the-bad-stuff/#comment-16239 |
| Yes, that was my point. :-) 2013 is a very important year because that is when people should start believing in the positive momentum - and the fear/hope gauge should swing over to the bullish side. (crossies!) | 2012-12-13T22:36:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/12/its-all-good-except-the-bad-stuff/#comment-16238 |
| "Growing optimism" should make it clear that optimism is not already universal, yes. There is a lot of hurt out there. And, as I tried to make very clear, there are irresponsible people on both "sides" - and quite a few responsible people in both parties, too. The debate right now is far, far less along the supposed party lines - it's developing as pragmatists versus ideologues. And yes, there is a time to fight. A really good fight can be a wonderful thing, as I have said many times. A budget is a reflection of values, and without consensus on our values we will continue to not have a budget. That will take a pretty solid fight to get done. | 2012-12-13T22:34:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/12/its-all-good-except-the-bad-stuff/#comment-16237 |
| See comment on previous post. MMB was as explicit as they can be, under law, that they cannot do a proper forecast. It's sick but true. | 2012-12-10T22:02:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16167 |
| Nope, I won't yield on this one. The problem is that MMB is not allowed, by law, to do a proper forecast. They included in the footnotes what the adjustment would be with minimal reference, skirting the law the best they can. It's a shameful situation. | 2012-12-10T22:02:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16166 |
| See above. It's a consistent $1B per year when properly accounted for. | 2012-12-10T21:19:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16163 |
| It's not in balance because of the law that they have to include inflation for revenues, but not for expenses. I covered that last post. There is a structural imbalance of $1B per year once it is properly accounted for. So that's the real problem. |
2012-12-10T21:19:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16162 |
| There is some room to expand, but it is best to be careful. I agree with Jim that the Fed portion is not something we should count on too heavily, for example - and making that up quickly would be a big burden. | 2012-12-10T21:16:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16161 |
| Well, how big is too big? This figure includes a lot of things like tuition and bills paid at a county hospital - aren't fees to a government institution a reasonable thing to have? To me, knowing that taxes are only about 9% is still one Hell of a bargain. The Federal part, I agree, is difficult to count on in the future (and I think it is on the table, yes). But it's the 9% that I think we should focus on as the important number - and that seems very small to me. |
2012-12-10T19:38:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16154 |
| We were "spun". :-) See above for the explanation. We've always been around average - on the high side in 1998, on the low side now, but not very different. Yes, you are right about less Federal money coming in. And it is because we are relatively wealthy. Keep in mind that we pay more in per capita than average, so our return on the Federal dollar has always been one of the lowest in the nation - around 75 cents on every dollar. GSP excludes very little. It does not count government, excepting salaries which are about a third. That is about the only thing excluded and it is fairly uniform all around. Our GSP would be about 11% higher if all of government was included, and I can look at how much that varies from state to state. I doubt it's a lot, but seeing how some states have much higher state and local government per GSP it may be as high as 20% excluded in Alaska, for example. |
2012-12-10T16:46:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16148 |
| Big questions! The first answer is that you can figure this stuff in more narrow ways to get the answer you want. What was always said is that Minnesota has a high income tax per capita. They knew that people would remember "high tax", and they did. The truth is that we are a relatively wealthy state (high GSP/capita) and we rely on income tax more than property taxes when compared to other states. Ta-Da! As for the states with the largest state + local government, you are right that it is hilarious for the hypocrisy. Sarah Palin's Alaska gets the title "Land of the Midnight Socialism" for it's whopping 29.4% of the state dependent on government, but some other deep red states are very close behind: 1) Alaska (29.4%) 2) Mississippi (25.3%) 3) Vermont (24.3%) 4) West Virginia (23.6%) 5) New Mexico (23.0%) 6) Wyoming (22.6%) 7) Montana (22.1%) I'll make the whole sheet available once I format it a bit, but the links to the raw data are given above. It's hilarious (except when it's depressing). | 2012-12-10T04:44:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/10/where-does-minnesota-stand/#comment-16135 |
| There is a section of the census bureau for detailed information on state and local budgets going back to 1992. The biggest question is pulling the data out of the database. They have details on every state including revenues (broad categories: Fed pass-through, taxes, fees etc) and expenditures - by state, local, and combined. Long ago I had a sheet to download their stuff and make a quick comparison between all states, it was fun. I'll get on that again tonight. Had to catch up on paying stuff first. :-) With the new Legislature it makes sense to know where we are both historically and compared to other states! |
2012-12-08T21:44:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16123 |
| I want to go back to the 1970s, largely because I have no idea what it will tell me. I also want to do it as a percent to GSP to normalize it. That may be nearly impossible, but I'll see what I can dig up. Also, there was a consistent reporting framework for all states at the Census Bureau that goes back to the 90s. I used to look at it every year - it was really intense data broken down by categories like K-12, roads, etc. Comparing each state is really interesting, especially by GSP. The range was really pretty small - always around 3.5% of GSP for local, 7% for state spending. Feds are, of course, about 20%, which is to say each level of government is about twice the previous ones combined. Really interesting. Almost made a Federalist out of me. :-) Anyway, that may not hold today. I want to dig that up. |
2012-12-08T04:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16109 |
| Yes, I agree on that. People would have freaked. | 2012-12-08T04:49:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16108 |
| Sorry, should have been more explicit. Table 33 on page 55 of the 2011 Tax Incidence Study shows that Decile 9 has a total income of $31B and Decile 10 has $82B. Multiply those by the net difference between their effective rate at current law and 12.3% (0.4% and 1.9%, respectively) and add them! :-) Thanks for the clarification on the definition of income - I think you are correct. Makes sense. Would love to see what happens to that bottom rate with a more comprehensive income definition. |
2012-12-07T23:00:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16101 |
| I will get together the spending / revenue vs GSP. That will take me some time and effort, but you are right that we should do it. Yes, K-12 and HHS drive the budget, and they deserve special attention. I'm not ready for that, and frankly I want to see what Dayton has to say before I get too excited one way or the other. This could go a lot of directions. I do know that Dayton is interested in being known as a fiscal moderate, not a liberal. |
2012-12-07T22:23:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16099 |
| Thank you! Long time no see! | 2012-12-07T02:07:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16069 |
| Thank you. There's a lot more to say, but this got long as it is. | 2012-12-07T02:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16068 |
| Footnote: The 2002 state law that prohibits the inclusion of inflation in the spending forecasts for Minnesota, but requires it in revenue forecasts, has an interesting history. Roger Moe and Tim Pawlenty were the Senate Majority and Minority leaders, respectively, and were about to run against each other for Governor. They rammed this law through in order to make the state budget look better, benefiting both of them. In short, Tim Pawlenty was screwing with the budget even before he became Governor. Oh, and in 2002 I voted Independence Party. |
2012-12-07T00:41:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/07/minnesota-budget-a-solvable-problem/#comment-16065 |
| Don't whine, check. :-) | 2012-12-05T16:59:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/05/about-me-the-post/#comment-16037 |
| Thanks! I am a bit blue lately. Maybe it's the weather, but somewhere around the election it just dawned on me how important self-promotion is to getting good gigs in the area of commentary and analysis. I never really understood how to do that. | 2012-12-05T16:58:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/05/about-me-the-post/#comment-16035 |
| It could be midlife crisis, that's pretty reasonable. But I have always been this way, at least to some extent. I think there are a lot of people like me - those who are more interested in being integrated with the world than conquering it. | 2012-12-05T15:20:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/05/about-me-the-post/#comment-16030 |
| Thank you. I guess this is how I express myself. | 2012-12-05T15:18:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/05/about-me-the-post/#comment-16029 |
| Yes. I think we do want to expand the benefits, but don't trust that the government is handling the money as well as possible. This is a generational change and we have to have a very broad agreement, like the one that created Social Security in the first place, to move ahead. There's a lot to think about here. Not much to say right now, you said it well. |
2012-12-04T16:56:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16013 |
| See above - I am very frustrated now and what I read in comments isn't helping. I think it's time to start over in so many ways it's hard to know how to begin. | 2012-12-03T21:22:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16007 |
| I've been thinking about this. You're right, most people don't care about macroeconomics - and I am tending toward the belief that there is only microeconomics at a grand level. Your comment is valid criticism. I am not too worried about the Fed - they are doing what needs to be done and I'm thankful for it. I am worried about our government's lack of interest in the same policy. We don't separate out capital from ordinary expenses as any business does or household should do. Real investment in our nation is mixed up in the jumble of daily getting by and doing what we have to. Infrastructure, among other things, is clearly an investment and has to be treated separately - but isn't. There is a bigger problem here in how the budget is done. I'm a "zero base" fan and supported Tom Tripplett (sp?) and his efforts under Perpich to periodically "sunset" every agency of the state government in a rolling multi-year framework. I support Simpson-Bowles for the same reason. But even zero-base does not get us to a strong appreciation for the difference between debt run up as an investment, which can be weighed against the asset it creates, and expenditure. Yet interjecting that at this stage seems utterly crazy. The more I think about it, the more frustrated I become. |
2012-12-03T21:21:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16006 |
| You guys are all one big downer, you know? :-) Seriously, this is about the dumbest damned thing I have ever seen out of Washingtoon. |
2012-12-03T17:07:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16003 |
| You're siding with Schiff and a fairly large number of bond traders in this position. It is an informed one, yes, but I still find it terribly irresponsible. I believe it is still possible and quite desirable to have a partial or minimal deal and then start a more lengthy process for real reform. You guys, all of you, are convincing me that the public is just not serious enough to back up the "leaders" who should be avoiding this. That saddens me to the core. |
2012-12-03T15:05:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-16001 |
| Real pain for real people is simply not part of the equation for most of the people in politics today. We have to replace EVERYONE, and that simply must start with the pundit class. Dig this exchange, where Jim Cramer is the only sane one: http://www.mediaite.com/tv/grover-norquist-tea-party-2-is-going-to-dwarf-tea-party-1-if-obama-pushes-us-off-the-cliff/ Jim effin' CRAMER is the sane one. |
2012-12-03T03:44:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-15997 |
| Good point. We may be screwed, given that this is what passes for policy and positioning. I feel a rising sense of doom, yes. It seems very stupid, given how avoidable it is. |
2012-12-03T03:08:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-15995 |
| It is a bad situation, but making it this much worse is not going to get us anywhere. What's the best path for individuals? I'd say buy gold, although it's a bit late for that. The US Dollar may be in serious trouble if this goes down like I think. |
2012-12-03T03:07:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/12/03/go-over-the-cliff/#comment-15994 |
| Exactly, it's a very important investment and we are very much missing what government should be doing first! | 2012-11-29T22:11:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/#comment-15968 |
| Apparently you were right - I remember you saying this some time ago and it looks like it is a much bigger need and a good source of jobs. Yes, state and local units are much better positioned. Bond rates are low for them now, but they are also pretty tapped out. I would say that the Feds should consider some kind of infastructure program that pays out for nearly any project up to the state and local amount in matching grants. |
2012-11-29T22:09:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/#comment-15967 |
| Very good way to put it, thanks! | 2012-11-29T22:05:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/#comment-15966 |
| Thanks! | 2012-11-29T22:05:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/23/infrastructure-payback/#comment-15965 |
| A tax on equity trades as a replacement for corporate taxes, then? Given that we have lost so many sources of revenue (tarrifs in particular) I think it is only reasonable to have another one. If we can't tax corporations directly this is a way to do it indirectly. | 2012-11-29T22:04:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/26/taxing-solutions/#comment-15964 |
| It is a stretch, but I think it is an excellent idea. There are other things that can and should be done to end the casino, but right now we are talking more about revenue. | 2012-11-29T22:03:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/26/taxing-solutions/#comment-15963 |
| Thanks! | 2012-11-29T22:01:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/26/taxing-solutions/#comment-15962 |
| More evidence all the time. Don't really want to beat the issue to death, but it hasn't totally sunk in with the general population. | 2012-11-29T22:01:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/28/its-clearly-different/#comment-15961 |
| I was going to comment on that - thanks for beating me! Yes, growth is with us - or at least some. It explains everything. Inventory of houses for sale is at a huge low, too. There is a definite "recovery" going on. |
2012-11-29T22:00:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/28/its-clearly-different/#comment-15960 |
| Filipinos certainly earned their independence - the only decent thing after that horrible war was to acknowledge it. As for the War ending the Depression, it's certainly what put a stamp on the end - but as my friend Bruce has pointed out GDP had risen to the 1929 level by 1938. The New Deal appears to have worked. Naturally, we'll never know what would have happened without WWII, but the worst was clearly behind us. Then again, in longer historical terms Depressions often end with war - that goes back centuries. |
2012-11-29T21:59:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/28/its-clearly-different/#comment-15959 |
| Sounds pretty good to me! :-) | 2012-11-21T01:49:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15881 |
| Yes, if you must shop, do it small! | 2012-11-19T21:32:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15877 |
| A good point, as always. | 2012-11-19T21:32:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15876 |
| I let "Buy Nothing Day" go for this post, but I personally support it. It is a good idea to just let this all go and be reasonable. However, if you do want to get your shopping done, please buy from small and local merchants - especially crafters! You can get more unique gifts that everyone will remember! | 2012-11-19T18:53:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15871 |
| Thanks - I thought I would put forward the conservative argument, since I think it is pretty strong here. Doesn't this seem like something we read about in the history of labor organizing in the 1890s? The long hours are just the last straw, once again. |
2012-11-19T18:52:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/19/black-friday-boycott/#comment-15870 |
| A good point on the New Deal! The budget deficit never exceeded 6% of the total budget or quite a bit less than 1% of GDP during the entire New Deal - an impressive feat, really. That is important to remember. | 2012-11-16T19:39:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/16/while-europe-burns/#comment-15849 |
| I think that is a good way to look at it. My heart may bleed for the undeveloped world (and cheer the developing world at times!) but problems in Europe have to be theirs to fix (short of third war in a century). Perhaps we should also think about "firewalls" and things like that - something which I believe is very much necessary in general in this new global system. | 2012-11-16T19:37:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/16/while-europe-burns/#comment-15848 |
| That also makes sense. I have read that the old guard was gone after the Revolution, but the process could have started much earlier. I wish we had easy footnoting, especially for off-line sources. Then again, I'd have to find where I got the notion I posted. Thanks! | 2012-11-16T14:36:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/07/william-penn/#comment-15845 |
| We are doing much better than they are, so I wouldn't sweat it too much. Just look at our unemployment rate and compare it to the now-labeled "Club Med" nations - 8% or so versus welll over 20%. | 2012-11-16T14:35:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/16/while-europe-burns/#comment-15844 |
| We are closely connected with Europe, however, so a plunge into a serious 1929 style Depression would hurt us. Then again, as I pointed out, we are as close to Mexico when it comes to trade and we have been largely ignoring the mafia violence that has ripped that nation apart. | 2012-11-16T14:34:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/16/while-europe-burns/#comment-15843 |
| This is not about creating jobs - this is about getting a handle on the restructuring that is necessary to create a new economy. It's based on the theory that at the end of a Depression / Winter / whatever-you-call-it the economy you go into is a very different one than the one that failed at the start. We can't entirely say what the next economy will look like, but we can do things that help it along and remove barriers to getting it started. That's what this is about. It's not really about jobs, although infrastructure development would create a lot of jobs right away. This is about a transformation. |
2012-11-15T21:49:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/14/restructuring-our-economy/#comment-15837 |
| With you on the trading tax completely. That probably does make more sense in the long run. A simpler tax code that is more or less flat would generate a lot of money with a fairly low top rate, and combined with a trading tax that goes to zero after, say, five years might be just the ticket. I'm not sold on any new education programs just yet. There are a lot of things out there and they are generally means tested so I think they work pretty well. But I have nothing to add at this time - this is a list of new things that I think should be done (which is to say, should have been done around 2008, but whatever). |
2012-11-15T17:45:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/14/restructuring-our-economy/#comment-15834 |
| Drew, you may have killed the comments section. :-) The premise is that small businesses that could use extra help because they are growing are slow to hire people for many reasons - and much of that can be attributed to overhead per employee. Some of that we can't change much - training, etc - and some of it we might be able to. Stagnant companies will indeed just pocket the difference, but a bump in profits on Wall Street will have a bit of a ripple effect and lift everyone. Including a rise in capital gains taxes - ie, making big investments less liquid - is very big and I am thinking that over. You may be on to something here. The key is to have stable pools of capital for investment, not capricious gamblers looking only at one quarter's P&L. I'll think about this a lot more and get back to you. We have something to discuss here. History, however, shows that high capital gains rates correspond to higher growth, although I believe that good times support higher rates (ie, coincidence does not imply one causality over another!). |
2012-11-15T17:29:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/14/restructuring-our-economy/#comment-15832 |
| I am not going to come up with a better outline of what needs to be done by government than piece from a year ago: Restructuring Our Economy - A Plan. I almost feel like simply repeating it for more comments. | 2012-11-13T21:17:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15804 |
| Growth is the key, and to me that starts with restructuring - what we can do to support the changing economy and get us more quickly to whatever new economy will replace the old one. Simply put, the technology that we thought would allow us to grow at a higher rate through productivity gains got ahead of us and wound up simply making a lot of workers redundant. Wrap that up with a globalized labor market and workers are really cheap. It won't last forever, but getting us from where we are to where we have to be as quickly as possible has to be the goal. Where is "there"? A good question. We know something about it, but not a lot. Tax reform is the big thing that government should be focused on, IMHO. I do think that a very simple system designed to raise appropriate revenue and little else is probably the best in a time of great turmoil - it allows the free market to go off in the direction it needs to. What can government do to hustle things along? I guess it's time to write about that again, but I feel like I've done that a lot already. |
2012-11-13T20:58:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15803 |
| Bingo. I recommend the link highly, everyone read it! The problem is that we have run such high structural imbalances we've really tried to have it both ways - and we can't do that. We do have to choose what kind of nation we will be, I think that is a very wise way of looking at this. |
2012-11-13T17:48:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15801 |
| It is perfectly reasonable to me to revisit this in many ways. Extend the retirement age? Sure, why not - perhaps even have options for reduced benefits at 65 and full if you retire at 72. Should we change how we fund it? I think that has to be on the table, ideally done with a progressive tax code and something that takes away the 7.62% employer contribution - a tax on employment that only contributes to employee overhead. But these are just huge issues that we are nowhere near mature enough to discuss rationally. It's disheartening. |
2012-11-13T17:46:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15800 |
| Unfortunately, you are right that "entitlement reform" is used as a bludgeon where a scalpel is needed. These programs have dedicated funding sources and needs that rise and fall (generally just rise) that do need attention from time to time - but they have been neglected for many years at this point. The closest I have seen to a Dem position is that Obamacare will produce substantial savings and that more savings can be squeezed out with deeper implementation. If that is true, then great! But as they stand now it is a football. Obama has NOT showed enough leadership on this for my liking, either. If we wait until there is a real crisis there will almost certainly be deep cuts. I'd like to avoid that. The conversation is very much off track and has had nowhere near enough leadership from Democrats. It's as if we hope the whole thing will go away. |
2012-11-13T17:43:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15799 |
| To tell you the truth, I thought Ryan's plan wasn't all that radical and as an opening position was really not all that bad when we talk long term reform. The problem was that the Republicans also ran away from it in an election year. The Dems have yet to get serious about reform at all, which really bothers me - waiting for it to be a crisis is not in anyone's best interests. I agree on progressive taxes for FICA as well, and I keep thinking about how to calculate how that might look. It's all based on an 80 year old model that should at least be looked at seriously. No one has ever seriously proposed that reform, which is not good at all. A "grand bargain" seems like an idealistic daydream right now, but I do think that as a "framework" Simpson-Bowles should be a way of approaching all this that we can attack as we can. We do need a grand overhaul of nearly everything, IMHO. That's pretty scary, but it's either that or hit the wall when we can't afford it. |
2012-11-12T18:12:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15789 |
| I hope Boehner gets some guts, but I always wondered how many votes he could actually deliver. That's probably the problem - he can't deliver doodley-squat. | 2012-11-12T18:07:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15788 |
| I agree that this is a long-term process, and as a Simpson-Bowles kind of guy I see no problem phasing in a many year plan that slowly reduces the deficit. I think we all have to agree that growth has to be part of it, and I also think that restructuring generally has to be part of this. I can't see spending 7X China on defense forever, for one. Smithson's view that you send targets out to the committees and let 'em fight for a year or more is interesting. I think a little action right now might buy time to make that happen, but I don't want to do anything drastic immediately. Obama needs a Robert Rubin, IMHO, who can talk to bond traders and at least figure out what will pacify them. You have a good approach here and I'll bet something like this will happen. But I think we all agree that this is an artificial deadline and the real problem is how it's built up into some mythological big deal. |
2012-11-12T15:20:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15785 |
| "The fiscal cliff is nonsense. Obama and Congress should focus on drafting their pro-growth bills so they can pass them next year. The markets can go to hell." I wanted to say something like this, but telling the markets to "go to Hell" seems to have pretty serious consequences. I haven't totally thought through that yet. I want to encourage growth - yes, absolutely - but as much as I think GS and JPM are disconnected from reality I still mostly OK with the stock market on balance. More in response to Anna, below, but let's keep talking here. |
2012-11-12T15:15:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15784 |
| Largely, you are correct. Obama is there to craft a solution that is not as bad as Romney would have foisted on us, but yes - the debt has tied the hands of government and made it nearly impossible to do anything substantial. I support the Simpson-Bowles plan largely because once we put EVERYTHING on the table I think there will be a big change in how we think about our priorities across the board. The need to raise taxes on the wealthy will be obvious and I do think the Defense budget will look unaffordable. But in the short term we are screwed no matter what, IMHO. |
2012-11-12T03:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15779 |
| I have come to the conclusion that this is entirely a political problem, yes. The debt is very real and continuing to borrow as we are is totally unsustainable - but with all the ways to solve this there is no reason we cannot. So "scaring Wall Street" is a rather real problem in many ways, but letting this fester has not been good at all. | 2012-11-12T03:02:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/12/fiscal-cliff/#comment-15778 |
| Thank you. I was going to run down a list of things that the DFL has on its plate, but that list is huge. What will matter most is a combination of long over-due simple reforms, major things we know are pending (like the implementation of Obamacare & exchanges) plus whatever various groups start pressuring for. I don't see anything more important than correcting the permanent imbalance in our state budget, but of course I would say that. Still, it's very important - and the "Minnesota Miracle" has been tinkered with to the point where it's not recognizable. I think there are a lot of "unfunded mandates" foisted on counties right now that the state can and should pick up the tab for - funded out of a restructured (progressive!) income tax and focused on reducing property taxes. I think counties are the place to look for a real reform in state and local relations. And, of course, pay back K-12 and look at the whole situation carefully for major improvement. Once we get the state's house in order we can start talking about new directions and new things, but I think that the fundamental stuff will take huge gobs of time - and should be done with a lot of public engagement to be done well. There are also a ton of civil rights issues out there, mostly in the same-sex area but not exclusively, that we have to deal with. I know of a few native issues pending, too. At least those don't cost us. Really, the list is huge. I've been listening to other people to get a handle on what will be the most pressing as well as thinking it through. It's a lot of stuff. Will same-sex marriage be part of our mix? We'll see. |
2012-11-09T21:02:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/09/soups-on/#comment-15759 |
| The first rule in politics is to never let a vote take place without knowing the outcome. If you're going to lose, find a way to declare a moral victory and/or carry on the fight. If you're going to lose by one, make any deal you can! If you're going to win, stop making deals. If you're on the outside, load that winner up with pork! Rove not only could not predict the election, he wasted a ton of money. Stick a fork in him and let the air out! The rest of those clowns are not doing their party any service by not being able to call this thing, either. It was embarrassing to watch, even from the other side! |
2012-11-09T01:15:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/09/soups-on/#comment-15750 |
| OK, I should have said more. But a DFL legislature does not mean marriage equity is around the corner. Many of those legislators come from districts that did not support the "No" side, and they will not want to support a change right away. There is a lot left to do! Thanks for the quote, tho. :-) |
2012-11-09T01:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/09/soups-on/#comment-15749 |
| I feel that we prevented something bad more than we did something good. The fight for marriage equality is going to be harder ahead than most people think, IMHO. But we'll see. Besides, I'm skipping things that everyone else is talking about. Unlike most pundits who talked about the election being "razor tight" (thus proving they simply repeated each other rather than think) I take my own path. |
2012-11-09T00:52:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/09/soups-on/#comment-15746 |
| As I said, it appears that the process of wresting power from the Quakers diminished their standing in history. I don't understand why we haven't revisited this, however, as it has much more resonance than the Puritan story. | 2012-11-08T16:44:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/07/william-penn/#comment-15742 |
| Exactly. Separation of Church and State is at the heart of our oldest and greatest traditions. It defined at least part of this nation from its very start! | 2012-11-08T16:42:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/07/william-penn/#comment-15741 |
| Thank you! I think this is very important. |
2012-11-08T16:41:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/07/william-penn/#comment-15740 |
| I remember 10 years ago when Paul died and Mondale took his place in the Senate election. I made a green and white sign with a marker that said Mondale! mimicking the Wellstone! in the yard. It just ... didn't really work. Sigh. | 2012-11-05T20:20:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15705 |
| Ha! You win this round! :-) OK, so we need to make it all slogans and hot buttons. Blah. Good point about how Republicans knew Romney was weak all along. Sadly he never had a stronger challenger, however. There was a brief moment I thought Perry would be tough to beat and then ... something happened to him. Whatever. If he is your Kerry, I do thank you. We're even now. :-) |
2012-11-05T17:55:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15702 |
| Ha! I'll keep worrying about it (for no good effect)! :-) | 2012-11-05T17:13:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15700 |
| Thanks. We'll see if this was an isolated case or not, you've given some good reasons why it could have been. My hunch is that polling is getting harder all the time, something not reflected in the methods - which are not changing that much. | 2012-11-05T14:15:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15698 |
| Thank you. I'm still amazed that the polls didn't pick this up, however. It was a very strange situation and it begs more analysis. If it's a total anomaly then it's not a big deal, but I think we may see more of that in this election. Nate Silver has shown that polls which include cell phones can be very different from those without, which means that for all the polls we have this election most may be pretty worthless. Plus, there is that ol' enthusiasm gap. I still believe most of the error is in IDing "likely voters". I know that was a problem for us in a city election. |
2012-11-05T05:37:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15694 |
| That's basically what I'm seeing. Naturally, my sample is only what I see, but long lines in Ohio and Florida are also encouraging. | 2012-11-05T05:33:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15693 |
| Note: This is something I want to revisit after the election after we see how strong the "ground game" was and what coalitions were formed. There may be a lot to learn here and some very important things we need to do to remain strong going forward, particularly where it comes to forming broad coalitions like the statewide organization of those on the outside that made the DFL in the first place. | 2012-11-05T03:35:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15690 |
| Yes, that is what happened. We got smart and realized that things have changed. Big money big media really is dead after all! | 2012-11-05T03:26:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/05/hot-buttons/#comment-15689 |
| I think you are all fair all around. I'm not 100% satisfied with Obama, either, but I want to stay this course (and not go off on a supply-side tangent that just won't work). BUT ... After this election I have a funny feeling my fellow Liberals will accuse me of going Republican when the debt negotiation comes up. This is some serious stuff. |
2012-11-04T19:54:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15686 |
| Reagan did not come from behind! http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107171/exploding-the-reagan-1980-comeback-myth# | 2012-11-04T03:48:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15681 |
| Well, that is what I based my entire analysis on, so yes. The question was "Has the economy turned around enough to give Obama a passing grade, especially in Ohio?" and the answer is apparently "Yes". That's about all there is to it, really. | 2012-11-03T22:13:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15678 |
| Well, I agree with the first part. :-) Seriously, I think we all expected more than an obvious sports analogy out of this thing. I hope we get some good leadership no matter what happens. Anyone in Nebraska? Vote Bob Kerrey! |
2012-11-02T15:59:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15669 |
| It matters a lot. If you really want a revolution of a kind, vote for Romney - the internal pressure in the Republican party will certainly make something really bizarre happen and people will take to the streets. That's my bet. But I'd rather not see that, thank you. I'd rather people took to the streets to force good people who care to do the right thing within the system. | 2012-11-02T14:42:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15667 |
| Count on it! :-) | 2012-11-02T03:32:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15663 |
| That is what matters - it's getting better, even in places that have been suffering for up to 12 years. What we learned from Sandy applies to all kinds of devastation, even economic. Politics is BS when there is a lot to clean up. | 2012-11-02T03:32:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/11/02/ice-this-thing/#comment-15662 |
| Thanks! I hope this concept gets out to a wider world. It works for me - besides, we need more adults. | 2012-11-01T16:10:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/31/patriotism/#comment-15649 |
| Thanks. :-) | 2012-10-31T04:21:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/31/patriotism/#comment-15636 |
| Thank you - that would be what I would hope for more than anything. It's the best reminder to vote that there is! | 2012-10-31T04:21:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/31/patriotism/#comment-15635 |
| Thank you very much! | 2012-10-31T04:20:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/31/patriotism/#comment-15634 |
| Nevada is strange, Romney might be able to pull it out but after the Reid election I don't trust their polls at all. I don't think Ohio can go anywhere but Obama - excepting a really big snowstorm. Ug. Ryan does have a future, I'm sure. There is a story he's upping his House campaign lately - a little nervous perhaps. But I think midwesterners like him are going to be the future of the party for a while. Wish the Dems could claim the same thing. |
2012-10-29T20:10:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15622 |
| I was born in the middle of it. One Hell of a list. As Johnson was quoted as saying, "I'm going to be known as the best President there was, better'n the whole lot of 'em!". | 2012-10-29T20:07:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15621 |
| Agree. That's why I don't write about the election very much. | 2012-10-29T15:34:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15616 |
| This election has always been "The other side is worse". It's very uninspiring. It is very much the opposite of what we need right now. | 2012-10-29T14:34:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15614 |
| Thank you! | 2012-10-29T03:55:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15612 |
| I did predict Obama would have a problem with the first debate, given that Romney had been so vilified he would look better just by looking human. That was amplified by a bad performance on Obama's part and a very successful campaign after that by Romney. The "mo" has changed, and did after the veep debate. It's cool. I think we have this still, but it should not be this close. | 2012-10-29T03:54:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/29/2012-predictions/#comment-15611 |
| Thanks, Larry! The bottom line is that market forces do work - at least over a very important time frame. I agree, we can't dismantle the market that does exist. We can stop screwing with it in various ways, and there is certainly a market developing for all kinds of alternatives that are now economical. It will sort out. In the meantime, some people are making a lot of money on nothing but trading. I think that this can't go on forever and that the cost of trade around the globe has to fall. With the cost of capital lower than it ever has been in the petroleum era, the carrying cost of buying a tanker full of oil right at the source is at a low - perhaps the "value" added by traders is much lower as well, and more fixed deals directly from the source might be in order. I wonder what would make that even more palatable in the future? Seems to me that if a barrel of oil trades 12x, with a little vig each time, there has to be some value in an efficient system that allows a barrel to be held all the way to the refinery. Just a few more thoughts to add to a great addition, thanks! |
2012-10-28T03:50:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15602 |
| I have started to think it's time for the big banks to fail, yes. It's the hard way of creating "Jubilee". | 2012-10-26T20:47:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15594 |
| The whole market is completely out of whack, and as oil becomes more precious it will only get worse without some major changes. Since I have no idea how to re-vamp the market, I look to new sources of supply to shake things up. But there may be a way to regulate this without destroying the needed futures market. I do prefer to not regulate unless it has to be done, but in this case I think we should figure out how. | 2012-10-26T20:01:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15592 |
| I am sure of this. Why it is not talked about and made into a major campaign issue I can't tell you. I will say that oil lobby generally is more these people than Exxon or even the Koch Brothers, and the Republican "Drill here now!" position is very much a diversion away from the underlying issues at hand. It's really sick stuff, especially since the Democrats don't try to make more hay out of it. Even at $0.50 per gallon, we're talking $65B per year that can be identified, and it may be twice that. This is about $1,000 per household per year. It's a lot of money. |
2012-10-26T15:57:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15590 |
| It is close to 12 times a day, yes. I used Kennedy's assertion of "more than 10", since I had a link to the article. No, they don't do this just for fun - there is a tiny profit on each trade, which adds up at the end. I have no idea how to regulate this out of existence, and neither does Obama (who would really like to). We do need a futures market of some kind and these trades are roughly the same as a real functioning market - how can we differentiate? The only thing that would change it is messing up the cozy li'l market they have now. Remember when I described a world currency? Part of the idea is a more open market that had opportunities for stable contracts "on the side" which bypassed the futures market all together. It's really another idea I have for breaking these. To get them to stop will require real pain. Someone would have to go into this market and slam these guys to the point where they lose a ton of money. That would probably break some very big banks, too. I'm starting to think that all these guys should fail and just go away because they are parasites. |
2012-10-26T14:57:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15587 |
| I've never been fond of hydrogen as a fuel because the energy per unit volume is as bad as anything you can imagine! Even batteries are better. So if you have hydrogen (as you would from gas reforming) you really should use it in place, IMHO. I'm thinking of a fuel cell, yes. You're right that oil markets have always been manipulated - it's almost a tradition at this point. Natural gas is indeed going the same way even as we find more of it all the time (and learn how to use it rather than flare it). I do think that the first policy goal has to be to break these guys one way or the other, but the fact that we're looking at alternative sources of supply for gasoline-type fuels will help that tremendously. Thought of another way to look at this. There are many people who believe that gasoline is as expensive as it is only because of taxes ( though only about $0.50 per gallon, depending where you live). We can be sure that speculation is at least as much as taxes, however. Puts that whole big gumint / big business argument into a different light, eh? |
2012-10-26T14:42:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15584 |
| It depends on a lot of things. I believe that ultimately we'll be producing methane from bio sources (as I wrote back in May) and natural gas is just an interim tech, so that would change it. Also, making longer hydrocarbons would have hydrogen as a by-product, which could produce electricity with very high efficiency, so it's not wasted. There are a zillion ways to look at it, but in the very short term a drop-in gasoline is going to be the way to go. And you are right in the long term - something has to give. The way the oil market is manipulated is pretty horrible, however. Simply breaking that would get us somewhere good, I think. |
2012-10-26T04:45:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/26/breaking-the-oil-cycles/#comment-15580 |
| People in power seem to think it does. | 2012-10-25T22:14:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/24/work-creates-all-wealth/#comment-15577 |
| Something strange, it's all fixed now! | 2012-10-25T17:21:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/24/work-creates-all-wealth/#comment-15573 |
| I think we learn once we see Brasil start to pass us up. Just guessing. :-) | 2012-10-22T20:59:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/22/inequality/#comment-15535 |
| Thank you! | 2012-10-22T15:16:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/22/inequality/#comment-15529 |
| Yes, that is what I think we are measuring here. The results for China are a bit surprising, but not really - note that their spectacular growth is indeed expected to end shortly. |
2012-10-22T14:59:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/22/inequality/#comment-15528 |
| Fair enough on taxes - there is more to it than just another new program. I think you have another place where a "grand deal" should be identified between the two parties. As for the Economist recs, you may be right. I'm thinking about this. I don't honestly know what regulations are a problem and I do wish Republicans would be more specific about this. If there is a problem I'm in favor of dealing with it. |
2012-10-22T14:59:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/22/inequality/#comment-15527 |
| I am still thinking about what just the right tax policy should be. My guess is that simpler is good, but progressive is very important. Still, we can and should cut many things, especially defense, as part of our balancing plan. I do agree that Greece's austerity has been a disaster. | 2012-10-19T22:02:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/19/paralysis/#comment-15512 |
| Good points. How we live says a lot about the basic "overhead" of life and thus what our disposable income is. There are many reasons to believe that we won't have the disposable income we used to, but big savings in housing and transportation could offset loss of income overall. Debt is always the big monster. At the end of the previous Depression there was very little, since no on was able to take out credit for a decade. It made a big difference in the 1950s! |
2012-10-19T15:10:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/19/paralysis/#comment-15508 |
| Demographics are fascinating, and if Boomers don't retire as expected a lot of things happen. It does save Social Security like nothing else, but we need the jobs for young people. Also, retirees spend less money overall but tend to buy stranger things. And there is the net increase in health care spending (like we can afford that!). | 2012-10-19T15:04:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/19/paralysis/#comment-15506 |
| Thanks! I agree, there is no "boom" in sight. But stability is a good thing, and I can't say it often enough - it follows stability in jobs. That's what Teresa Boardman said to me years ago and she was right! But that's backwards from a "normal" recession. | 2012-10-17T20:36:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15487 |
| An excellent point. Developed nations do not go quietly into the dark night. Once none of the normal rules apply, well, it seems no rules apply. Very good. We should be far more worried about that than we are. | 2012-10-17T20:26:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15486 |
| Interesting point about China, yes. A while ago, probably the first time I mentioned Minsky, I had a graph showing that total US debt was over 400% of GDP. A quarter of that is Federal, another 15% is State and local, but the rest is private. I never did find a breakdown, but I'm pretty sure that at least half of private debt is in households, which is to say quite a bit more than the Federal debt. As much as I love deficit hawks we should remember this the next time one says "You wouldn't run your house or your business this way!" Um, yeah, we kinda do. :-) But yes, refinancing just turns "good" debt into something more like "not so good" debt in the long run. And when there was a bubble it became "ponzi debt" pretty quickly in many cases. Will keep an eye on China - and the rest of the developing world and their appetite for debt. Many other growing nations could see their tendency to use cash for everything fall away as they get used to good times - such as Brasil, Malaysia, etc. Would be an interesting trend. |
2012-10-17T19:26:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15483 |
| There is reason for optimism, if for no other reason than if you don't think we can manage the debt and grow out of it we might as well default now. I think it's at least worth trying before we contact oblivion. | 2012-10-17T19:20:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15482 |
| Fair enough - we do have a lot to fight through. So let's get at it and fight the good (real?) fight! I'm good with that. If we can keep our eyes on the prize and make something happen we should be able to do this right. Call me a dreamer, again. :-) | 2012-10-17T15:36:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15479 |
| My comments were based on reading this while listening to the debate - the prescription seems very much in line with what both Obama and Romney were talking, with different emphasis here and there. Is there a big regulatory burden on entrepreneurship? I have yet to hear a good specific example, but I do wonder if employment regulations and especially the overhead per employee costs (some of which probably come from regulation) can't be managed far better than they are. But as you say, we can't even get a real health care system together, the best way to cut overhead per employee and create jobs. Mauldin is a Republican, no doubt, but he seems to "get it". If they were all like him, I'm sure a deal could be crafted - but of course those in power are not and we're really screwed. The thing about Mauldin is that even when I disagree with him he makes me think, which is all I really ask. I do think the idea of an "economic singularity" where all the fundamental laws of normal activity break down is an excellent way of looking at this Depression. |
2012-10-17T15:35:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/17/singularity/#comment-15478 |
| Thank you. That was how I was reading this - take away the breathless pronouncement of a new boom and it seems like things are at least going the right way. You and I have talked about how the job loss fueled the bust in the first place, so what you're telling me here is that real estate is following employment pretty closely - just as you said it would. At least everything makes sense! Thing is, in a "normal recession" job gains lag the general pick-up in the economy - but we're seeing the opposite today. People need work before it will turn around. Avoiding words like "Depression" and fancy terms like "Kondratieff Winter" is one thing, but we can be sure this time is definitely different than what we have experienced in our lifetimes. That's what's important. |
2012-10-17T15:29:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15477 |
| Ha! C'mon, they're real estate people, they have to be optimistic! | 2012-10-16T21:30:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15470 |
| It seems pretty out there to me, too, but it's moving with the job market. That makes sense. I take this kind of talk entirely as proof that the data we're reading on employment - slow but steady gains - is correct. Declaring victory in either market would be premature, yes. I think we're still very close to a (flattish) bottom. |
2012-10-16T21:30:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15469 |
| Good for you! :-) As much as I'd like to give Obama credit, I have come to believe that we are simply waiting out the secular bear market. |
2012-10-16T21:28:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/15/housing-boom/#comment-15468 |
| This might be important for Ohio, yes. We will see. The Veep usually doesn't matter much, tho. | 2012-10-11T21:17:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15450 |
| I believe a deal will have to happen, and that moderates will play at least some role in brokering it. It may be all behind closed doors, but the possibility of something much bigger is still with us. So I'm dreaming - stranger things have happened in dreams! :-) |
2012-10-11T16:00:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15447 |
| There simply aren't any real options before us except Simpson-Bowles, from what I can see. Any other ideas? | 2012-10-11T15:59:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15446 |
| You are right that one party rule has often included more across-the-aisle than when they are close. Good observation! Still, the level of this crisis is something we have not seen for a long time. If it becomes deadlocked, which I expect, strange things might happen to keep it moving. With the House certain to be close (though I suspect still Republican) this should be interesting no matter what. |
2012-10-11T15:58:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15445 |
| That's right, we have a Veep debate. I always hated those. Still, Biden should prove more formidable than Obama was, we'll see. | 2012-10-11T11:50:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/10/a-guy-can-dream/#comment-15444 |
| In yer dreams! :-) I still think this is in the bag for Obama, mostly because Ohio is just not trending any other way that his. That's pretty huge. | 2012-10-09T05:27:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/08/party-on-the-jobs-report/#comment-15424 |
| Better stimulus, that's always my answer. Well focused and strategic. Obama is getting a lot of heat right now over alternative energy, but this is one area I agree with him 100%. But - the budget imbalance is a huge problem. We do have to have a plan for moving forward with growth and a balanced budget of some kind. Ignoring the problem is only going to make it worse and everyone knows it. The fear that cultivates is a real problem. |
2012-10-09T05:26:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/08/party-on-the-jobs-report/#comment-15423 |
| I agree, it's fascinating. My daughter recently studied Stalin's USSR and was utterly horrified. It turned her off a true "gender neutral" view of the world forever, among other things. Her view of politics has now been colored by the idea that genuine evil can be done in the name of something that sounds good in theory. I think it's a good perspective. | 2012-10-09T05:24:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/08/party-on-the-jobs-report/#comment-15422 |
| Fair enough - you don't really know a bottom until it's behind you. I can buy that. But I think the real spin is that recovery is happening. | 2012-10-09T05:22:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/08/party-on-the-jobs-report/#comment-15421 |
| OK, that's valid. I'll have to think about it. There is a place for subprime mortgages and other loans, no doubt, but it's all about appropriate assessment and labeling of risk. The bubble was all about just throwing that out the window. What's a better way? Canadians often note that their home ownership is about the same as ours without any government programs and no interest deduction, which is a fascinating point. Is it possible that our attempts to goose the system only add complexity without advancing toward the goal? I'll think about the rest. I'm starting to get a bit Republican on government loan guarantees generally, hoping to rely on regulation - especially regulation that revolves around assessment and labeling. That may not be enough or even reasonable. |
2012-10-05T19:46:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15395 |
| They all have masters, you know it, too. :-) As for defining terms precisely in law, that rarely happens. It was deliberately left up to the regulators, a normal procedure. And that has been refined since the passage of the law. As for Fannie and Freddie, I'm starting to side with Republicans that they are such a problem that getting rid of them may not be a bad option. A serious overhaul is at least worth talking about, if that is possible. Right now, they are indeed a "dumping ground" for sub-par mortgages, which can have a purpose but it is clearly being abused, IMHO. |
2012-10-05T18:14:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15392 |
| Correction made (what a dumb mistake!). And yes, I agree with you on him. He's not going to do anything his big supporters hate. To hear Romney carp about this half-measure with few real consequences says a lot about who his masters are, IMHO. | 2012-10-05T04:39:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15386 |
| Sorry, but the link does not work. Want to try again? You are right, Glass-Steagall is what is needed. I've called for that separation between commercial and investment banking to become a global standard as a way of putting up a few walls to contain problems around the world. But there is so much more needed to modernize banking and make a much stronger connection to reality on the part of big banks. |
2012-10-05T04:36:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15385 |
| Excellent! That appears to be what this is all about. | 2012-10-05T01:20:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15382 |
| Thank you, that's very helpful. It's about what I thought I had heard about it, too. | 2012-10-05T01:20:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/05/dodd-frank-a-non-issue/#comment-15381 |
| Thank you, I want to do my part to increase our understanding and participation in making important decisions about the economy. We have a few strong leaders at the Fed who are doing all they can, but our politicians need a good kick to get their job done. That''ll have to come from us all, I think. The more people are engaged the better. | 2012-10-04T01:31:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/03/through-the-looking-glass/#comment-15375 |
| Trying to be personal again, eh? Well, I still think the future is our cities, and the trend is strongly with me right now. There are other ways to sell the message, and I decided to take that path. Still hate cars? Yup. But things are taking care of themselves, and that's the good news. Time to work on other things. | 2012-10-04T01:29:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/03/through-the-looking-glass/#comment-15374 |
| Thanks! Yes, at least make them scared. I'm with that. | 2012-10-03T03:54:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/03/through-the-looking-glass/#comment-15369 |
| That's always a possibility, but keep in mind that many such incidents are a chance to look more "presidential" than anything. It's a tough road for Romney no matter how you look at it. | 2012-10-02T23:32:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15367 |
| Yup. There has to be a way to take care of the people who do the things that make the world go 'round but don't necessarily earn a "salary" doing it. We have something in place that's pretty darned good, and it would be a shame to lose it. But we have to pay for it somehow. It seems to me that after 50-80 years there is a time where an overhaul is necessary - something that reflects the changing nature of the economy. But wow, having that discussion now is nearly impossible. |
2012-10-02T01:58:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15361 |
| This is an age-old question, and I don't have a good answer. I will say that in practical terms, the simplest tax system is likely to be perceived as the "fairest", and that is important in a Democratic-Republic. If the rate is low enough, the relative "unfairness" that comes in due to (excessive) simplicity is small, so that should probably be a goal as well. And it is probably best to generally have one system that covers just about everything. So I've long been in favor of a "Flat Tax" with a zero rate based on the poverty line (times 1.5 or so?) and a flat rate on absolutely everything after that. This may be too simple, but taxing everything the same helps keep the marginal rate low. The US Government received about $920B in income tax last year, which is just 7% of all household income (!!). If you allow $20k tax free per household, you're still looking at really low rates on what is left over. So that's the approach I'd take to start with and see where it goes. I did all the math on this a long time ago and it seemed to be less than 20% for a rate after a high standard deduction no matter what you do. Should most Americans making the median income pay no taxes at all? Eh. A small amount sounds reasonable, and given the payroll taxes everyone that is working pays something into the system. Romney's comments are ones I've heard from other Republicans, and they confuse me no end. Wasn't this done rather deliberately with tax cuts through the 2000s? Hello? There's not much to complain about no matter what, IMHO. Whether or not it's a good idea I'm not so sure. Payroll taxes are starting to really bother me (gee, can you tell I'm self employed? :-) ). |
2012-10-01T21:18:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15359 |
| Yes, that is very true. Times like these any hope people have will be vested in youth and energy - that's where someone like Paul Ryan comes in. However, if you buy the K-Wave business cycle analogy, someone very old is exactly what you need - someone who remembers the last cycle like this. It's what makes Alan Simpson, for example, so compelling IMHO. | 2012-10-01T16:37:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15354 |
| Wow, you got the announcer schtick! That's funny. I was watching Sunday Night Football as I wrote, and that's where the idea came from. Funny, and a good call on your part! | 2012-10-01T16:35:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15353 |
| He may try to get wonky on us and talk about plans - that could be a good strategy, and his (complex!) plans have not been discussed at any length in the press, it's true. That would be a good strategy, IMHO. | 2012-10-01T15:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15349 |
| I think people are more confused about where to go from here than happy with it. | 2012-10-01T15:03:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15348 |
| It seems strange that people are likely to vote Obama in pretty big numbers but return a Republican House. I know that people often vote "for the best person", but given how polarized everything is you would expect more ideological / party voting, I'd think. Perhaps voters, or at least a decent number of swing voters, aren't as polarized as our press is? Or perhaps it's deliberate, as Anna said? Dunno. | 2012-10-01T04:15:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15345 |
| Thanks! I've never seen anything I thought was credible written on deliberate "ticket splitting", and I doubt that many people do it consciously. It seems a bit too elaborate to be likely. But you never know. |
2012-10-01T03:07:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/10/01/a-day-at-the-races/#comment-15343 |
| Yes, I agree on all counts. And I don't want to sound hard on the Fed because what they have done is exactly what we should reasonably expect that they should. The process of exceeding their normal charter has been a long and somewhat torturous one that goes back about 10 years and is an attempt to pull off a small miracle. The results were mixed - what could we expect, in all honesty? As for Europe, you are right on. Each nation used to constantly race to the bottom to see who could support employment with the weakest currency around. The Euro killed all that, but so many of them found other ways to continue their profligate ways that were a part of the whole process all the same. They should have been in a proper marriage years ago. Instead, they are living together and after a nasty fight thinking about upping their commitment with a joint checking account. It's not enough - they aren't committed to making it work. They still want to be able to walk if the fight gets really nasty. |
2012-10-01T00:53:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15341 |
| As usual, you've hit the nail on the head. Why was our monetary policy so loose for so long? There was talk of deflation as early as 2002, which is when the famous "Helicopter Ben" comment was made. The policy makers clearly were more worried about that than inflation through the decade. Between Greenspan's actions a "Deficits don't matter" I think it is clear that they were managing this Depression the whole time. This implies that the various bubbles (housing being the nastiest) were almost deliberately created. The question, to me, is "Can you manage a depression with fiscal and monetary policy alone?" They were clearly doing their best, but the answer appears to be a solid "No!". And their efforts were being repeated through the developed world the entire time, so it's not just the US acting alone. The USD carry trade became significant, too, which adds a new wrinkle to globalism as we know it today. But yes, I think this was all very deliberate and we were caught on the downside when the bubbles burst. What we see in retrospect was certainly in the back of Greenspan's mind at the time, but the Fed acted as it did anyway. That they were looking at things in a very different way from everyone else seems to be the only reasonable conclusion, IMHO. |
2012-09-30T21:11:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15338 |
| Thanks. But it will get worse, at least in some way! :-) | 2012-09-29T21:02:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15333 |
| Yes, we can credit Bernanke. I have been a bit critical of QE3, largely because it's so open-ended. I also do not understand how it is supposed to help when the same methods (buying mortgage backed securities) had limited effect on the economy before. But he is still the one person in the US - and maybe the world - who is on top of this! He is the Manager of the Managed Depression, and he's not doing a bad job at all. Just wish he had more support - and didn't have to stray so far from the Fed's charter! | 2012-09-28T17:06:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15330 |
| Thanks. The complacency with the pace of the restructuring seems very strange to me. People do seem to accept this more and more, which is good in a way - it's probably what we see in that rather high consumer confidence number. But we still have no sense of urgency when it comes to the fundamental problems. | 2012-09-28T17:04:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15329 |
| Thanks. That is one funny assessment of Europe. It's worth saying again - Merkel was hardline on everything until it looked like Germany was in trouble. Politicians are about the same everywhere! :-) | 2012-09-28T03:31:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/28/summers-end-2/#comment-15326 |
| Being able to hire replacements is one thing, but when is it just not a good idea? Quality just can't slip in the NFL - it really is a total luxury product after all. :-) Had a long talk with my kids tonight about how unions work, and they were pretty confused by the end of it. Funny how one came in pro-union and the other against, and now they are just confused. I value my time as a Dad. :-) |
2012-09-27T00:58:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15322 |
| Yes, the idea that companies can police themselves is ridiculous. I do think that there are better ways to regulate than we have done traditionally, especially in environmental issues - so much is non-point these days it's hard to lean on one source. But we still have to do something to move ahead. Self-regulation is silly. | 2012-09-27T00:55:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15321 |
| It's been on constantly since Monday! I agree, there will be playoff implications, so it will never die. And Packers fans will keep bringing it back, too! | 2012-09-27T00:52:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15320 |
| A very good point! No one else has made that, so it's all yours. I do remember that is the normal procedure in the End Zone - knock it out the back. | 2012-09-27T00:50:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15319 |
| They were ready - there is an NFL official in the "booth" above the field watching everything. They have the power to reverse calls and so on. It's not clear what happened in this case, however - but they anticipated issues. | 2012-09-27T00:49:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/26/blown-call/#comment-15318 |
| Good point - I don't know how many losses are "real". I can tell you that the league took over Phoenix, so the "losses" are being felt by the NHL itself. | 2012-09-24T19:00:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/24/blood-money-on-ice/#comment-15301 |
| Hockey, in particular, is fueled by passion. What I find interesting here is how the situation is very analogous to what I think is going on with the US government - an immediate problem that requires a lot of good will to solve (and is thus ignored as long as possible) with a long term problem that can't be dealt with until the immediate one is fixed. | 2012-09-24T18:59:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/24/blood-money-on-ice/#comment-15300 |
| I hear ya. Another lost season would pretty much kill the league, and they don't seem to realize that. The fans are outraged. | 2012-09-24T18:58:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/24/blood-money-on-ice/#comment-15299 |
| I don't want to go there. There are way too many side effects, and protectionism clearly made the last Depression worse. The idea of some barriers is something we've talked about, but trade barriers seem to always be counter-productive. If you have a very good example maybe we can talk, but Brasil has its own barriers in corruption and distance that are far more important, IMHO. | 2012-09-21T22:35:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15290 |
| I should try harder? :-) | 2012-09-21T22:33:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15289 |
| The usual long-term thinking from our resident conservative. :-) You are right - they were doing well enough to shield them for a while, but not forever. | 2012-09-21T22:32:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15288 |
| True, but I have yet to figure out what *we* would export to the developing world. Scientific instruments have long been a good source of cash for us, but it's hard to say. I don't know if strong demand elsewhere is a big net gain for us or not. | 2012-09-21T22:31:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15287 |
| Yes, highly specific skills and an ability to do everything, too. I'll bet that if they are looking for a BS Chem/Biochem it doesn't actually pay all that well, either - maybe 50k a year? | 2012-09-21T22:30:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/21/globalizing-the-depression/#comment-15286 |
| I am working on it! | 2012-09-21T00:25:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/19/idiot-diet/#comment-15272 |
| Thanks! :-) | 2012-09-20T16:32:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/19/idiot-diet/#comment-15269 |
| Note: Romney and the Republicans are re-tooling. They have given up on the "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?", which is something I was wondering about here. I think that's about it for this election - barring a big gaff in a debate. | 2012-09-18T22:17:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15258 |
| I saw. It's not everywhere yet, but it will be. And it should stay there. This could have some effect on the election, but we'll see. | 2012-09-18T15:05:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15256 |
| A twitter discussion I want to bring over here for comments: Someone took issue with this statement - "this kind of money has to eventually become inflationary". The counter was that no, we control inflation through monetary policy, and that if inflation became an issue the Fed would simply raise rates to contract the money supply. Or a 140 word version of this. :-) I countered by admitting this was true and asking, "But wouldn't that take a higher rate than if this was never done in the first place?" No answer yet, but people don't go into twitter constantly. I'd like your opinions here, if I may ask. Thanks! |
2012-09-18T14:36:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15254 |
| Good point. But I worry that this is not effective enough for now and buys us trouble later. | 2012-09-17T21:26:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15253 |
| I avoided that piece by the Byrds (actually written by Pete Seeger) in my last entry. It was the #1 song the day I was born, incidentally. :-) I'm not against QE, but I want it to be effective. I'm just not sure about this round. |
2012-09-17T20:49:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15251 |
| I think that's a reasonable perspective. | 2012-09-17T20:47:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15250 |
| I admit, I'm perplexed by this action on this front. It's more of what they already do, which I thought was shown to not be that effective at goosing the economy. Maybe they had to buy MBS to stabilize the market in the first round, but they are talking about stimulus here. What? | 2012-09-17T20:47:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/17/qe3/#comment-15249 |
| I think it's been very bad, but perhaps another two years of this and the Republicans will find their calling and actually try to get things done. We all seem to agree on what will happen, which is interesting given what we want to happen. Barataria has a fun crowd! :-) | 2012-09-14T14:56:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15226 |
| An excellent addition, thank you! Leave it to our accountant to introduce market forces into the debate. :-) | 2012-09-14T14:55:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15225 |
| That's where I think something stupid could happen, which is what I think it would take. Interesting upset pick, I think you may be right - Biden is a better fighter than people give him credit for and Paul Ryan has not had this kind of pressure before. | 2012-09-14T03:07:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15221 |
| That seems to be the case right now. They don't seem very confident in themselves, always a bad sign. | 2012-09-14T03:05:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/14/thebigfight/#comment-15220 |
| Very few people are thinking in the very long term. Google "secular bear market" and I think you get a complete list. :-) | 2012-09-12T22:56:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/12/surviving-thriving-realizing/#comment-15211 |
| Thank you, I am working on this. I think that time scales go to the heart of the matter and I will try to make it as simple as I can. I think a lot of people understand "survival mode", especially these days, since we've all be stuck in it at some point in our lives. This is why the message of "Hope" was so powerful, BTW. It's the antidote to "survival mode". It's just so hard to repeat it after four years of a lot of drifting. However, I should also add that I think that whoever is elected this time will probably look like a genius for reasons that are not going to be their doing at all. Thanks again - any assistance you can provide in making this message more clear is very helpful. |
2012-09-12T04:38:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/12/surviving-thriving-realizing/#comment-15206 |
| Thank you. But this is something I think we need to discuss a lot more as a nation. | 2012-09-12T03:35:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/12/surviving-thriving-realizing/#comment-15204 |
| Footnote: The realization the other day that we are on a pace to reach something like full employment by 2017, right on schedule for a typical "Secular Bear Market" or business cycle phase to end, has shaken me to my core. It's amazing how accurate these predictions can be. This post does not deal with the biggest cycle yet, the rise of the Developing World. I will deal with that omission later as it is at least as important as how business cycles run through in the Developed World. |
2012-09-12T03:19:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/12/surviving-thriving-realizing/#comment-15202 |
| I think it's very legitimate to talk about the nature of work and think about how we are going to structure it. Granted, there is no way we can limit someone's hours in a week, especially in this "Gig Economy". I don't think it would be Constitutional, for one. But the structure we have is 80 years old now - and productivity has increased insanely since then. The stock market can and should be the best way that everyone can enjoy the fruits of this, I would say. But it's run more like a casino. Is there another mechanism? It's all worth thinking about. |
2012-09-11T20:53:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15191 |
| Yuppers. They are in very deep. I'm starting to think that the Jubilee is the only way out for them. | 2012-09-11T20:45:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15190 |
| And if everyone did that, you know there'd be a futures market for WCH in no time. And then a bubble as the price skyrocketed. :-) | 2012-09-11T20:44:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15189 |
| Agree on that last part - only bad news is good news. It's so complex it will take months more to figure out what, if anything, actually happened. Ug. | 2012-09-10T17:35:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15181 |
| Wow, time has gone by. I will be there this afternoon! | 2012-09-10T17:35:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15180 |
| I love it when your conservative streak comes out. :-) The negative interest note is very interesting - you're right, it's a big change, fast. They are printing Euros. We all said a year ago they'd have to (the link is in the article). |
2012-09-10T17:34:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15179 |
| OK, that will take some more explaining. :-) | 2012-09-10T17:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/10/acronyms-vs-reality/#comment-15178 |
| That is a good point. Part of the reason we have the labor structure we do (overtime for many after 40 hours) is to "share the work", something that had to be done in the last Depression. It is definitely something that should be discussed. Why should these mythical "productivity gains" tend to accrue primarily to the investors, not the workers? | 2012-09-07T19:43:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15161 |
| LOL! Very funny. That wasn't what I was trying to say, but ... I guess I did, eh? :-) | 2012-09-07T16:50:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15158 |
| Yes, I expect it too. Well, if I was a talking head on teevee I would respond to some of the stupider arguments with "Yo Momma so old she went to school wit Jesus" or one of the other less offensive snaps, just to make a point. So maybe that's why I can't get one of those gigs, eh? :-) | 2012-09-07T16:19:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15156 |
| I really hate the "headline unemployment rate" for a lot of reasons, and this is probably the most important. I wish it would just go away, so I ignored it for what I thought was the most interesting information in these jobs reports. It is true that not everyone will re-enter the labor force at the end of this Depression. Some will retire, some will raise kids, and so on. But from month to month we get these statistical anomalies that everyone hangs on as if they are important - they just aren't. |
2012-09-07T16:17:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15155 |
| I think it all adds up, and the fact that we're on a pace to see "full" employment sometime between 2015 and 2017 tells me that this is just simply running its course. I get that from observing that the ADP report regresses out to 180k jobs/mon in about 33 months, or 5.4k jobs/mon^2 acceleration. If that holds (and it's one damned straight line so far, with some noise) we will add a total of 12M jobs (already added 2M!) by mid 2015. You get that with total = 1/2 a*t^2 . I'm being conservative by saying 2017. Pretty straightforward math, really. |
2012-09-07T16:15:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/07/tale-of-two-reports/#comment-15154 |
| I have been told they have an underground following at my daughter's school. Which is probably appropriate, no? :-) | 2012-09-06T00:31:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15136 |
| And I'll tell you, my daughter only knows the music of Dylan from that list. Interesting? | 2012-09-06T00:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15135 |
| You are right, there were many good punk acts - but will any make it to "classic" status? Dead Kennedys? Suicidal Tendencies? Black Flag? | 2012-09-06T00:29:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15134 |
| Sorry, but the Replacements and Husker Du were unknown outside of this part of the nation. I know nothing about them at all, to be honest. | 2012-09-06T00:28:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15133 |
| I think we're avoiding progressing into the 90s for the natural 20-year old music comeback. Grunge and gangsta Rap? Nah. | 2012-09-06T00:27:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/05/freebird/#comment-15132 |
| I did save the graph from 1947 on here: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?graph_id=86247 The last time it went this negative? George HW Bush lost his re-election bid. It was 3-4% consistently through the 50s and 60s, dropped off through the 70s, was pretty anemic in the 80s, but picked up in the 90s only to slide back down as we've seen. I think we can say that the last generation has not see any significant gains in real (inflation adjusted) wages except for a few years in the late 90s. I may have stumbled onto something important here. |
2012-09-03T16:32:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/03/labor-day-holding-on/#comment-15108 |
| I will look into how I can easily add a regression line, but your call of a zero date is not far off, I think. The actual data was right at zero then, too. It does explain a lot. | 2012-09-03T16:29:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/09/03/labor-day-holding-on/#comment-15107 |
| I think that is a lot of what he had to say today, but he is holding QE3 in reserve. Basically, the Fed has gone about as far as it can (and further than it maybe should have?). | 2012-09-01T00:58:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/31/the-real-power/#comment-15091 |
| They were. It was a non-event, but that alone is worth saying something about. Happy Labor Day! :-) |
2012-08-31T22:24:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/31/the-real-power/#comment-15089 |
| Yes, I don't wish hurricanes on anyone. Respect! | 2012-08-30T22:17:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15074 |
| Yup. The house I grew up in was built in the 1960s. Took 200MPH sustained winds with hardly any damage. There you go! | 2012-08-30T22:16:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15073 |
| Yes. The wet ones are always the worst, or so the old-timers used to say. | 2012-08-30T22:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15072 |
| I went down after it was over - it was so flat, and not a single landmark remained. Just awful. Took years before Perrine looked like anything again. | 2012-08-30T22:15:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15071 |
| I remember a lot of tropical depressions or whatever that curved up from the Caribbean that left huge puddles. A piece of wood or stiff cardboard and we were wompin'! :-) I didn't go through Andrew, but I saw the before and after. My folks have the stories. I miss the trees we lost - persian lime, key lime, orange, grapefruit - a real plantation of great delights. |
2012-08-29T03:59:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/29/hurricanes/#comment-15060 |
| Honestly, though I know a fair number of people in Wisconsin, I don't know anyone from or currently living in Janesville. I know that my ex father in law didn't like Ryan, but it's been 9 years since I spoke to him - Ryan was a freshman congressman and didn't come up much back then! I haven't been to Kenosha in at least 10 years. Greg Dahl? Been a long time since I heard that name. He was pretty conservative in many ways, including being pro-life. Yes, I did meet Paul Simon and I also supported him. As for being privileged, I agree with your assessment. I recently described a 15 year old me as a "punk kid". Oh, and you're off a little - Dad was a Professor of Chemistry. Experts are important in this world, but there is a balance. We can't rely on them to do everything without losing our sense of Democracy. A perfect balance would include a lot more dialogue, where experts have to explain where and why things need to be done - but this rarely happens. If you read it carefully, it's not "experts" that bother me, it's experts who hide behind jargon and set themselves apart. If I could have one career of my choice, it would be as a writer whose job is to translate things out of jargon and technical talk so that ordinary people can understand them (or, at least, ordinary people with some decent education). I think you can see that my "hobby" of economics includes a lot of this and has gotten me a bit of a following. People do like this - and challenge me when I get stuff wrong. My statement on "experts": http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/01/27/expert-opinion/ |
2012-08-28T23:28:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15058 |
| OK, I'll bite. You've been doing a lot of homework. It's creepy, but I'll go with it. I have a lot of stories relating to African Americans and how they have been able to get along in our nation. If you read back far enough, you'll see that I've written some of them here. I haves never thought our nation is perfect, just awfully good. As for Dave, we live in a district that does not have a significant African American population. Dave's opponents have typically been Anglo, which given the Latino population of our district is a bit strange. I was never a big Dayton fan - was a Keliher backer, if you'd read about that. Dayton is doing OK, but he has good people working for him. So did Ventura and Carlson (and even Pawlenty, for the most part). The state seems to work pretty well, all in all. As for being the grand force for the liberation of all people in the world, I have very mixed feelings. When I was young I thought that was our role in the world - to extend our blessings to all people. As I've gotten older I see that this is very difficult and that conditions have to be right. I would strongly support intervention in Syria right now, for example. What's our role in Afghanistan? Without being there, I can't say for sure. But in principle we should indeed be doing something, yes. It's a matter of what would genuinely be of benefit to the people and not just an extension of a war that prolongs their suffering. |
2012-08-28T23:08:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15057 |
| Aaaaand, let's leave my ex-wife out of this, OK. :-) However, we do talk about this a lot - and that's between us. :-) | 2012-08-28T02:24:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15044 |
| You have a point. Let's just say that among re-elections that got this far the President has won them all except GHW Bush, Carter, Hoover, and Taft in the last Century. I forgot a lot there, didn't I? But recently it's been a walk for everyone (except Johnson, the exception!) which includes GW Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Nixon, Eisenhower, FDR, and Coolidge. So it's still pretty likely. | 2012-08-27T19:00:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15039 |
| Shucks, we all have off days. :-) I will work on it and get it into my schtick. :-) | 2012-08-27T17:25:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15037 |
| I think there is a lot to be made with this, especially given the polling. If women have a 15 point gap for Obama, the overall being close means there is a more than 15 point gap for Romney among men. That's probably what will decide the election, given that they are probably not as set in their vote than women are at this point (given all the small blow-ups we've had). I will keep reading the tea leaves in polls to see what I can discern. | 2012-08-27T17:24:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15036 |
| A very good point! I will watch for that - if so many people are watching this, every detail counts! | 2012-08-27T17:22:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/27/conventional-wisdom/#comment-15035 |
| But there remain many things that are best understood by the guts and by instinct. You can't get away from them. There are many forms of intelligence in a human, and pure reason is simply one of them. As I said, an ongoing conversation between the different intelligences is the only path to being a complete person. Reason is definitely a part of this process with an important role to play, but it is not the only intelligence in a human. The emphasis on sensory input is what relates objectivism to existentialism. Both are inherently limited by their own design - they start and end with the same perspective, the self. Standing outside of yourself for a moment is beneficial for many reason, not the least of which is an incredible advantage in negotiations (always have to bring things back to the material when arguing with objectivists). Consider the Tao Te Ching from 2,500 years ago, as posted in the first comment. It's a much more complete philosophy, and much shorter. And consider what it means to be outside of yourself for a moment. It's much more interesting than being limited by your own ability to reason. | 2012-08-23T13:50:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14996 |
| I agree. The intrade futures on Obama took a decent jump when this incident got out, so this does seem to be a "last straw" to many people. A hurricane in the middle of the convention would be pretty serious, too. But - we live in a time when a lot of "outliers" can happen. We never know until it's over. |
2012-08-23T13:40:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/22/gaps-gaffs/#comment-14995 |
| Thank you! >blush!< I try to be reasonable. I've run campaigns, which helps a lot - I think very few commentators have actually been close to a campaign, which is pretty strange. How they get their jobs is beyond me. :-) | 2012-08-22T18:49:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/22/gaps-gaffs/#comment-14984 |
| It probably is impossible to close it completely, but in a tight race going from a 15 point gap to a 10 point would be huge. They could still do that, but after Akin I think it's pretty unlikely, too. That means they have to find something else to get some traction. My hunch is that nothing is really going to change this election at all in the next 2 months - people are pretty set on which side they take. |
2012-08-22T18:48:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/22/gaps-gaffs/#comment-14983 |
| Maybe I am a bit too easy on them, but I wanted to deal mainly with Romney, the standard-bearer. He's not guilty of anything in this fight, but he will be tarred with it all the same. As for the party generally, they need a lot more discipline. They used to be very good at that - to the point where even a liberal Democrat like me was pretty jealous. Not any more. |
2012-08-22T18:46:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/22/gaps-gaffs/#comment-14982 |
| We have two things going on here. Objectivism is very much like existentialism in some important ways. The political expression of it, Libertarianism, is different. Many things views opposed to the Soviet Lenninism / Communism - and it's a damned good thing they won. But it was somewhat inevitable as it was all a terrible idea that could not be sustained. It was a question of when and how, I think, and getting it behind us sooner was ultimately a good thing. The world still does have a bit of a hangover from that sorry period, though (Syria, for example, and Iran). |
2012-08-21T14:53:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14959 |
| Well said, and you are right. People who simply want the smallest possible government are hard to argue with, but real Objectivists are impossible to argue with. :-) | 2012-08-20T17:47:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14948 |
| Thanks. It's very common for young men who think that the world is holding them back to think that this is the answer. It's a bit delusional, but very understandable. It's not until you get older that you start to think that maybe doing absolutely everything is not exactly a great idea anyway. :-) | 2012-08-20T17:46:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14947 |
| Thanks! Yes, it's just no fun at all. There has to be much more to life, doesn't there? | 2012-08-20T15:12:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14943 |
| I agree completely - PowerPoint doesn't kill presentations, people do! :-) | 2012-08-20T15:11:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/10/powerpoint-goes-boom/#comment-14942 |
| Addendum: It didn't belong in this post for reasons of both space and unity, but here is Stan Rosenthal's translation of Tao Te Ching chapter 5 - IMHO a much more interesting way to approach issues of perspective and morality: Nature acts without intent, so cannot be described as acting with benevolence, nor malevolence to any thing. In this respect, the Tao is just the same, though in reality it should be said that nature follows the rule of Tao. Therefore, even when he seems to act in manner kind or benevolent, the sage is not acting with such intent, for in conscious matters such as these, he is amoral and indifferent. The sage retains tranquility, and is not by speech or thought disturbed, and even less by action which is contrived. His actions are spontaneous, as are his deeds towards his fellow men. By this means he is empty of desire, and his energy is not drained from him. | 2012-08-20T15:03:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/20/ayn-rand/#comment-14940 |
| Indeed, that is what counts more than anything, IMHO! | 2012-08-17T17:43:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/17/tesla/#comment-14920 |
| No, things don't change. That's part of why I think the Tesla story is so important. I have met a lot of people vaguely like him in both their brilliance and their lack of motivation by material stuff. | 2012-08-17T17:43:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/17/tesla/#comment-14919 |
| They have become intertwined, perhaps unfairly, but the "Current War" was a big deal in its day. Edison lost and Tesla/Westinghouse won. Tesla has been latched onto by people who don't really understand what he was trying to do, and the wireless transmission of electricity did seem to be a bit much. But he is still a very important person and may yet have more to teach us! |
2012-08-17T17:42:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/17/tesla/#comment-14918 |
| Whoa - I would never say "evil" for finance, it is what it is. But the way some businesses are run are contrary to our history and social values like freedom. 3M used to be one of those resiliant manufacturing companies - self insuring, operating along independent division lines, allowing a lot of room for personality and personal development. That changed when the market imposed its own rather narrow values on the company in the 1990s. There has to be room for more models of how to run a company (like in the piece you gave me to chew on, above!) and some are more reflective of the values we have as a free people in other aspects of life. Carnegie? He was a good guy, no qualms there. Mellon? Ah, that does get interesting. More later when I'm not on the road. :-) The problem with Big Anything is that our belief in freedom and expression lends itself to a very Free Market, something which becomes an abstract ideal when things get very large. It's different from capitalism, where the money makes its own way, IMHO. Big can be made to work along the lines of our values, but often it hasn't. That means that either our social values change or the market has to. History shows that we have often intervened to force the market to be more open and accesible, and that's a tradition. Are we really going to change that now? What does that mean to our other values as a people? Things like "good" and "evil" are defined by our values. We believe in stuff, and it should reflect in our daily life what we believe in. Does it? |
2012-08-15T14:32:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/15/miscellaneous/#comment-14883 |
| That is very interesting, thank you! I wonder what changed for VC between the 90s and 00s - perhaps the low hanging fruit was taken? Anyway, I will read this more closely. Thanks! | 2012-08-15T14:25:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/15/miscellaneous/#comment-14882 |
| Yes, the Standard Chartered thing is starting to look like a shakedown by New York. Just pay us, we'll go away. Yeesh. | 2012-08-15T14:23:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/15/miscellaneous/#comment-14881 |
| This is a chance to explain why I thought Quayle was far too much maligned - he was a decent guy, too. He didn't always answer questions quickly because he thought about stuff. And I remember in 1992 in his concession speech when he said the name "Clinton" and the crowd booed, he had a great response - "Now, if he can run this nation as well as he ran his campaign, we'll do all right." No one can say anything bad about Quayle to me after that without an earful. Good guy. Need more Midwesterners. :-) |
2012-08-14T23:49:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14863 |
| I only went past Janesville on I-94, don't know anyone there at all. But my kids have pretty deep Wisconsin roots. :-) Jobs is the big issue, but it really hasn't come up. I'll get into that some more - once again, Obama going net positive in jobs is a pretty big deal and takes away the most powerful argument. The rest? I'll let you crow for a while. :-) |
2012-08-14T23:47:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14862 |
| I would never vote for Ryan, but I think it's important to respect our opponents when they seem to deserve it. Tell you what, if I'm wrong about him I'll admit it. But if we do get a better discussion of what's in front of us as a nation I'll be very happy! |
2012-08-13T21:56:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14832 |
| It is hard to see us really getting our act together. I look for any small reason to hope, I guess. I also really hate Walker, so I'm with you on this one. I think what he did was really sleazy. |
2012-08-13T21:54:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14831 |
| I'll agree with you on the root causes if we can add something about willful inattention to projections/demographics/etc. As bad as it all looks it seems pretty fixable if you accept we aren't going to rule the world and we're going to have to pay for what we get no matter what. Those appear to be really big things to accept, which is why I have trouble taking most "conservatives" seriously. Which gets me to Ryan. I do think this guy is the real deal because he must have understood how badly his message on Medicare would be received, but he's been pushing it anyways. I don't see any leadership like that out of Walker, for example, who seems like a pretty fake trickster all around IMHO. I don't begrudge people having a different opinion about how to run a society from me, but when you know it's so unpopular you can't state it up front (such as union busting) you're just a coward. Tangent - take "Obamacare", for example. Those against it have never suggested an alternative. Does that mean they support the "system" that we have now? And how on earth do they think they have the right to be so adamantly opposed to something without any kind of alternative? Back to Ryan - I don't agree with him, but I like the fact he's so upfront. Pinning the right down is the first step towards making a deal - or at least engaging in real dialogue and maybe getting the press away from the gamesmanship crap and into real analysis (call me an idealist on that). We have serious problems that needs serious solutions! |
2012-08-13T18:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14824 |
| You "real conservatives" are seriously coming out of the woodwork on him - I guess that means you are enthusiastic! :-) | 2012-08-13T17:59:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14823 |
| Interesting! All I ever ask is that politicians propose real solutions. I don't have to agree with them, but as an opening shot in the negotiations Ryan's plans are really not that bad. If that takes you over to the "Dark Side" we'll miss you, Anna. :-) | 2012-08-13T14:34:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14816 |
| I wonder the same thing - or something like what he proposed. At the very least, it's better than letting the program go broke, which is a very real possibility if we do nothing. | 2012-08-13T14:33:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/13/the-ryan-gamble/#comment-14815 |
| That looks great, I should read it. To me, the real problem is the hierarchical approach to information - a one way street from "expert" to novice. PowerPoint seems to stifle dialogue in a rather blunt way! | 2012-08-13T14:31:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/10/powerpoint-goes-boom/#comment-14814 |
| It is, I am sure! | 2012-08-13T14:29:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/10/powerpoint-goes-boom/#comment-14813 |
| Thanks! | 2012-08-13T14:29:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/10/powerpoint-goes-boom/#comment-14812 |
| Thanks! You do have to wonder what it will take to get serious reform started. How many more scandals will there have to be? | 2012-08-08T19:44:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/08/what-nothings-wrong-here/#comment-14739 |
| Not at all! This is something I've been on top of for years. It's getting something to change that is the hard part. | 2012-08-08T19:43:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/08/what-nothings-wrong-here/#comment-14738 |
| Thank you. It's good to have an accountant's perspective on this! | 2012-08-08T18:17:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/08/what-nothings-wrong-here/#comment-14735 |
| I think this scandal could be a great thing. Time will tell, it's still very young! | 2012-08-08T18:16:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/08/what-nothings-wrong-here/#comment-14734 |
| Yay! Someone got it! File this under "Analogy trimmed for space and staying on topic". :-) | 2012-08-06T19:17:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/06/investabots-amok/#comment-14704 |
| Another very good point - that took them days to catch up on and match the trades. Today, it takes us months to figure out what happened. It is very much the same, except even faster and far beyond our ability to make any sense of it. | 2012-08-06T17:35:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/06/investabots-amok/#comment-14702 |
| Thanks - I have to feed you at least one per article. :-) | 2012-08-06T17:34:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/06/investabots-amok/#comment-14701 |
| Excellent point, it's the recklessness that is the problem. But yes, the real problem is that the fabulous market that nearly everyone had some role in back 20 years ago has become something ordinary people stay away from. They killed the golden goose. | 2012-08-06T17:34:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/06/investabots-amok/#comment-14700 |
| I have seen an uptick. II think this is real. But - even if it is, will it last? At least it's not as bad as 2011, when a lot of promise took a dive. Then again, it really picked up again in December 2011. | 2012-08-03T19:18:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/03/job-excitement/#comment-14682 |
| It isn't nearly enough, no. We might be in trouble, especially if technical failures continue to plague the market like Knight Capital. | 2012-08-03T19:17:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/03/job-excitement/#comment-14681 |
| For a site that prides itself on thoughtful conversation, I can see that this topic managed to tick off just about everyone! I guess I had to do it someday. :-) I don't mind somewhat personal questions, and this is all OK for me. It's going to be a long campaign, I think, and it will get nastier. I want to make it clear, however, that I don't approve of "my side" bringing the nasty, either. |
2012-08-02T14:36:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14671 |
| I do make a joke about everything, even the Free Market (which I both love and fear, I admit!). "Moral Hazard" has become pop psychology, but you are right that it is an important economic term - one that we have failed to heed completely and almost certainly will more in the near future - it is a problem! I don't think I said anything snide about George Romney, and if I did I apologize - he seems like he was a pretty good guy. Mitt could use that a lot more, I think. As for 3M, no, I've always had about the same view. There's a balance to making great new things and not screwing up the planet. 3M does a pretty good job, generally, of not doing bad things. They also provide much needed jobs in addition to important innovations. So no, I'm not your typical "liberal". But I do take that side when it comes down to it. |
2012-08-01T04:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14659 |
| I am sort of getting at that, but to be honest I came to this particular post's conclusion after taking a step back and looking at what is going on. But you are right in that I very much *want* to take a step back and figure out what on earth could possibly come from this $10B venture we're in the middle of. It seems awfully shallow. I tend to be more mad at "my side", too, because I do expect better. I don't think Republicans do that, BTW. :-) |
2012-08-01T04:24:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14657 |
| Pawlenty? Two extremely white guys doesn't sound like a very balanced ticket. He can do better than that. Oh, I and I disagree with all the other stuff you said, too. :-) |
2012-08-01T03:51:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14655 |
| OK, OK, I could have made my feelings on the way Kerry was unfairly hammered more clear! Yeesh. But yes, Romney is under a lot of pressure right now and the press are like dogs - they can smell fear and pee on everything to make it theirs. On the fundraisers - I'm looking into that. It seems really strange to me. Has anyone else ever done this? It seems to be a much bigger issue than mis-speaking about the Olympics, for one. |
2012-08-01T03:15:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14653 |
| I didn't think this would be popular. :-) I'm not commenting here on the truth of the charges, but the process. I agree that Kerry was badly defamed and was a genuine war hero. I also agree (as I've said before) that Mitt deserves to have his "business" record scrutinized because it is very much flawed. However, what's likely to stick to Romney is not what I think is the most legitimate criticism. I think the lack of tax returns and the stories that are fantasized out of that information-less vacuum will become the problem. If that goes down, it will not only be the same process that Kerry felt, but much more similar content than even Romney-haters like both of us (yes, both of us!) will be comfortable with. Consider this equal parts observation and prediction. I also thought it was time to step outside my DFL comfort zone a bit and try to be as objective as possible. Feel free to tell me how badly I missed the mark. :-) |
2012-08-01T02:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14651 |
| Yes. Rather than address the issue, they seem absolutely desperate to change the subject. They are trying way too hard most of the time to make him sound important. And he, like Kerry, is just terrible off the cuff. What I see is them over-handling him even more in the next month, which will really smell like doom. If they had hit this head-on they wouldn't be in this predicament. They really should have seen it coming. |
2012-08-01T02:36:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/08/01/swift-boating/#comment-14648 |
| Yup. But it can only go on for so long before something happens. | 2012-08-01T01:42:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14643 |
| Thank you, that is interesting. That it lasted until 2006 is something I'll have to think about. | 2012-08-01T01:41:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14642 |
| Aw, I sometimes blame it on Reagan, but there was a shortage of investment capital at that time and the policies adopted then made sense, to be honest. But that doesn't mean they kept making sense throughout the last 30 years! We had a choice to make long ago about how to run our "Empire" based on a US Dollar Standard and the biggest, baddest military the world has ever seen. We haven't done a horrible job, and as Empires go we're definitely not the worst there ever was - and we did leave behind a lot of benefit to many places. But those days are over, and history will ultimately judge that Empire of ours by how we leave it behind. The UK did a great job on that, folding into the Commonwealth and re-evaluating what it means to be British over and over in their popular culture (if you look at it a bit sideways, that is). So we remember them pretty well now. I think we'll do the same, especially since we were never a traditional "Empire" in the first place. But I would like to hurry the process along. $700B a year in Defense Department alone (doesn't count Homeland Security, etc) and a total balance of payments over 30 years of $8.2T leaving our shore is a total drag - it won't keep up forever. Thanks for the good links from Krugman, and good to know that the investment money isn't draining us like the consumer expenditures - but to everything there is a season. I really do believe in K-Waves / Business Cycles / Jubilee (in the biblical sense of it, too!). "To everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under Heaven". You know, that was the #1 song the day I was born ... :-) |
2012-07-30T20:35:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14634 |
| Thank you. That line seems really obvious to me, but I really can't explain it in less than about 800 words. I am really trying because I think it's important. I'm very glad that you agree because I'm starting to think it's the most important thing we have to do right now - and given all the stuff that needs attention, that says a lot. | 2012-07-30T17:48:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14631 |
| Thanks! What about your olympian horse? :-) | 2012-07-30T17:47:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14630 |
| Your feeling is pretty typical among people I talk to, which is why I say that most people seem to "get" this in their guts. It's a matter of articulating it so that people have something to actually think about and discuss that's important. I do try to do that as much as I can. The guy is Sancho Panza, from his statue in Madrid. I want to remind people that I'm not Don Quixote, I'm Sancho - doing my duty to keep things from getting too crazy after the whole world lost its mind watching too much ... well, whatever this is that the Big Media throws at us. :-) |
2012-07-30T17:46:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14629 |
| Thanks! Book? When I get time (or a big advance!) Office? When I lose my mind. :-) | 2012-07-30T17:44:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14628 |
| I have been drifting, but it's been with a purpose. :-) I don't like just complaining, I like finding solutions that are worth discussing - ones that come from a different way to look at the problem and could lead to a way out. That's how I came to the conclusion that the end of the Dollar Standard is actually in our best interests at this point, so I had to imagine what that might look like. Also, the piece on Velocity is important, because I'm focusing on what that really means and how to repair it. But it does stand as a bit of a tangent on its own, yes. |
2012-07-30T17:42:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14627 |
| I've been working on it. :-) | 2012-07-30T03:23:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14614 |
| Thanks - if we can't tell this as a story, it'll never make it into the heads of the people who make the decisions - and that better damned well be the people of this Democratic Republic. Most people "get" this in their guts already, it's just a matter of bringing it up into their heads. | 2012-07-30T03:22:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/30/a-new-beginning/#comment-14613 |
| The Yuan is probably low, but I don't think it's as low as many pundits claim - probably 5-10%. At PPP it's pretty close, given that things are cheap there. Inflation may change all that, which is the main reason they need to float it. How do they get away with a non-convertible currency? Beats me all to Hell. I do think it's inevitable that the Dollar Standard will fall just because the volatility is a serious risk. When everything was calm and even it was great, but upsets here and there yank the dollar around and prices change like crazy on everything. I was going for stability in my currency design for this reason. A single global currency with a central bank? Maybe one day. I'm proposing a kind of interim step and that next one may be desirable some day. But I think that too many developed nations would fight such a thing now so I don't see how it can happen. Just my thought. I came up with something that would satisfy most of the needs for a global standard and could be implemented right away - rolled out slowly, even. That could catch on soon. |
2012-07-27T16:05:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14566 |
| It's all global trade. We set up a system where we benefit from growth in trade. No wonder we got fat 'n happy! | 2012-07-27T16:01:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14565 |
| Yes, that is typical Munch. He was a fun cat, if a handful at times! | 2012-07-27T16:00:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/27/cats-pride/#comment-14564 |
| Eh. 353k Initial Claims is good, not great, but I don't totally buy it anyways until I see the monthly data in a couple weeks. We're still going nowhere, I think. Howz dat? :-) | 2012-07-27T15:59:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/27/cats-pride/#comment-14563 |
| Wow. Momcats (of all kinds) are really something! | 2012-07-27T15:58:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/27/cats-pride/#comment-14562 |
| Give them time. They are about to collapse. | 2012-07-26T03:58:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14543 |
| Here is that balance of trade graph: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=71341&category_id=0 The total amount of money that left the US since 1980 is $8.8T (getting used to everything in trillions yet?) That's a lot of money to leave our borders, and it should have trashed the US Dollar. But it didn't because demand has stayed high for the global currency. That's the price of our Empire - above and beyond the price we pay in blood, that is. It's time we put an end to it all, IMHO. |
2012-07-26T01:47:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14539 |
| Sorry, I still don't know why it breaks. This is a good move for us for many reasons, but the possibility of regaining manufacturing jobs is the best reason. It also would make it possible for the Fed to manage the US Dollar much more effectively, among many other things. And it would probably stabilize prices on commodities - just noticed today that gasoline prices go up and down as much as 35 cents a week! |
2012-07-26T01:41:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/25/global-currency/#comment-14538 |
| When it comes to elections, we wind up with two choices - both from big tents and a lot of history, both with flaws. You can pick you side and I won't insult you for it. Well, not too much, at least not while sober. :-) Politics, however, is the greater discussion of working things out as a social arrangement. I use two definitions - 1) The art and science of human interaction, eg "office politics" or "domestic politics". 2) The operating system of a Democratic-Republic When it comes to politics, more discussion is good. This upcoming election was framed by discussion had years ago, maybe decades. I'd like to frame it as much as I can with a new discussion based on what the Hell happened over the last few decades. We're stuck with two deeply flawed parties and two candidates who have their own debts, personalities, and agendas. But we can sure crank up something interesting as long as we have everyone's attention, I think. Well, it's worth a try, damintall. :-) |
2012-07-24T04:17:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14517 |
| Won't disagree with a thing here. But the idea of resiliency, or ability to ride out the vagaries of life in the middle of a big continent without help from banks and other institutions, made it all work. It was almost in spite of being generally capital starved (although there is a reason there is a big banking center in both Minneapolis and St Paul - these are the banks that made opportunities where New York wouldn't dare go). It just seems to me that the same principles apply no matter the weather - natural or human made. There have to be natural breaks in the system, places that are self-sufficient on some scale. Those used to occur, as much as possible, at the very smallest level. It wasn't efficient - Lord, no. But it was resilient. There has to be a way to properly measure and track resiliency. And I do know that keeping something "salted away", to use Anna's term, made you a takeover target in the 80s and 90s. 3M, for one, changed completely in that time. And now, the Greek government lying about its finances for a decade can screw over everyone all around the world. This is not a global system that makes any sense. No matter what Black-Scholes-Merton tells us, not everything can be properly insured with market forces because markets are not entirely rational or regular. The theories we have today manage ordinary risk very well but fail utterly when it comes to extraordnary risk - making the latter nail-bitingly ordinary at the end of the day. No. This ain't right. The old way had its problems, but this way is lunacy. But it was enforced with great rigor and revel by outfits like Bain that made a lot of money off of it. That left us all unprepared, as if Pa Ingalls took the harvest time off and kicked back. Winter sucks when you aren't ready for it, natural or Kondratieff Winter. That's the lesson of the Great Plains, IMHO. |
2012-07-24T04:12:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14516 |
| All true, but we accepted it pretty universally. I think many people believed they could be rich one day, too. Certainly, the Boomer generation seemed to buy the idea that with a 401(k) they could all retire rich. Not so much a decision but a beguiling. |
2012-07-23T18:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14512 |
| I don't think anyone is aggressive about the stock market or any of this corporate buyout stuff anymore. That's interesting, given how cheap money has gotten. But we do have to assess the damage done in the past, and the fact that a genuine king from that era is running for President seems very strange in a way. But, of course, it's also to be expected. It just means we have to speed up our assessment of the situation and get a handle on it. Where do people put their money now? I have no idea. I would hope they take Warren Buffett's advice and invest in stuff they can see, ie local. |
2012-07-23T18:29:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14511 |
| Sure, throw the wisdom of Solomon at me. :-) | 2012-07-23T01:38:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/20/solar-weather/#comment-14506 |
| We live in a pretty hostile universe, so the one true miracle is that we exist at all. But it's not as though life on this planet hasn't been nearly extinguished before. We could well be the next Dinosaurs, a species that inhabited every part of this globe before their voracious eating habits made it impossible for them to survive a decent sized shock. There is always a new threat. The only thing that upsets me is when we make up threats to each other, like a bunch of bored cats. There's plenty out there. "May you live in interesting times," goes the old curse. Does it get much more "interesting" than this? |
2012-07-23T01:37:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/20/solar-weather/#comment-14505 |
| Yes, that is definitely going to become a part of our larger media / conversation. And just in time for the election, too. Not good for Obama. | 2012-07-23T01:33:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/20/solar-weather/#comment-14503 |
| Thank you, but I think we're all better at saying what's wrong with "the other guy" than ourselves. I'd love to debate a true "conservative" who can articulate what's wrong with the left - and I have met quite a few. I think I covered a bit of what's wrong with the left in that piece I did on Marx a short while ago, weak as that criticism was. | 2012-07-23T01:32:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/23/resiliency/#comment-14502 |
| I try not to talk about it a lot, mostly because I am not sure, but I am a skeptic of human-made global warming. I do think that the effects we have seen are mostly part of the ordinary cycle, but what we are doing can't help at all. How much is natural and how much is man-made? My guess would be 50-50, but it's only a guess. I expect a pretty dramatic cooling at the end of this sunspot maximum, which should peak next year. There may be other strange effects through this cycle. It's not as though things just get hotter or colder - the atmosphere has to adjust, and that takes both time and a lot of turbulence. The loss of the Jet Stream may in fact be related to cooling, for example - less heat pushing northward from the Tropics and a much more atmosphere. No one is sure yet because the cycles are a bit long and we don't have great data doing back long enough. |
2012-07-20T16:35:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/20/solar-weather/#comment-14479 |
| True, I don't talk about T-Paw a lot. Mostly, I think he's done as a politico, but we'll see. Veep? Naw. Portman is a much more interesting choice, IMHO. Ohio is a much better prize, and I think Portman could deliver it. | 2012-07-20T16:31:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/18/catch-a-break/#comment-14478 |
| We had some relief since I wrote this, but the drought also got my attention. Really bad stuff. | 2012-07-20T16:29:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/18/catch-a-break/#comment-14477 |
| Exactly - and there are a lot of people like him out there! | 2012-07-20T16:29:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/18/catch-a-break/#comment-14476 |
| Thanks. The West End of St Paul is the place to be! :-) | 2012-07-20T16:28:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/18/catch-a-break/#comment-14475 |
| That is also true. It's really looking bad, IMHO. | 2012-07-17T03:16:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/16/taxing-returns/#comment-14438 |
| Thanks. :-) Yes, it was broken. Sorry. All fixed now! |
2012-07-17T03:15:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/16/taxing-returns/#comment-14437 |
| Hello, Rick. First of all, name calling does nothing to further your cause, but if you insist on doing it be my guest. I can assure you that regular Barataria readers will likely just ignore you. If you'd like to join the discussion, you're more than welcome to. Despite my being a "stupid bastard" and an "idiot" you do seem to want to have a debate with me, and that's fine. Now, as to the topic at hand, it was on how we're losing a generation during this Depression. I didn't see any response from you on that, so I'll assume that you agree. If your argument is that the economy was running well under the Bush administration, I would like to ask you how we could run such a large permanent deficit - on the order of 5% of GDP - and still have economic growth of less than 4%. It seems to me that there were serious problems in the economy dating back to at least 2001 that were only being papered over with a lot of free cash. Thank you for participating in the discussion on Barataria. I hope that in the future we can engage productively. |
2012-07-16T14:34:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14426 |
| Not to quibble with you too much, but I date the economic decline, what I call the "Managed Depression", to 2001 for a variety of reasons. In terms of the ethical/moral/energetic decline, I think you are right that things took some time to sink in as the administration went off the deep end. The Iraq War remains a bizarre diversion that we never really did regain our footing from. We've seemed rather lost since then. I have also predicted that this will last until around 2017, given the usual K-Wave cycle length - and that seems to be about right so far (if it's not longer!). All of this is my speculation, of course, and it takes time for Depressions to both sink in to popular consciousness and to leave. My main point in this piece is that the current phase of the Depression is going to leave some lasting scars, much like the Great Depression of 1929 did. I think we agree on that for a lot of reasons. | 2012-07-13T23:41:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14416 |
| Very close, I always imagined that duck joke at the Dubliner. :-) Barack Obama is a lot like an Irish bar on St Patrick's Day - getting a beer is all about "Hope". :-) |
2012-07-13T19:10:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/13/fight-with-funny/#comment-14409 |
| Not bad ... :-) | 2012-07-13T15:17:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/13/fight-with-funny/#comment-14405 |
| That's the plan. It's all funny, when you think about it. Could you possibly mess things up more than, say, JP Morgan? (earnings today!) | 2012-07-13T13:17:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/13/fight-with-funny/#comment-14403 |
| There is one like that going around - A liberal, a conservative, and a moderate walk into a bar. The bartender says, "Hi, Mitt!" |
2012-07-13T13:15:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/13/fight-with-funny/#comment-14402 |
| Exactly. I would like to see a solid effort to send these guys to jail, but if it can't be done for various reasons the least we can do is start isolating them. That's what the Glass-Steagall Act was all about - setting up a wall between the ordinary Commercial Banks that keep the economy humming and the cowboys that take big, global risks. The more I think about it EVERY nation needs to have that wall to keep contagion from spreading, which is why I called for a new Bretton Woods international agreement. | 2012-07-12T14:36:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14398 |
| I think it is almost desirable. Every day it seems moreso. I don't see that much downside, to be honest, if somehow a federal agency can seize the remnants and keep the credit cards working. | 2012-07-12T02:27:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14395 |
| I doubt China will land hard, but it is a possibility. So yes, let's think this through ... They probably won't go easily, it becomes a question of some kind of war with the outside world or a revolution within, I'd say. To tell you the truth, it may not be a bad thing in that it would stop the flow of cheap manufactured goods and might open jobs in the developed world. But I'd be afraid of military problems. I think that they are going to have to have major reforms to reach the next level no matter what - even more than what is mentioned in that good article. So they have a rough time ahead no matter what. Yuck. |
2012-07-12T02:26:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14394 |
| Thanks! | 2012-07-11T04:11:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14384 |
| I think it's a great start, but 4 years is a long time to let this go. Things got way out of whack in the meantime. | 2012-07-11T04:11:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/11/scurry-from-the-light/#comment-14383 |
| I think Walker's recall failed by the margin of people who think the idea of recall is ridiculous. Voters tend to be very practical first, or at least the swing voters (10%? 20%?) are. Fiscal discipline is fascinating, the more I think about it. Every developed nation has run a deficit of some kind for 30 years - and suddenly we all have religion about how bad that was? Seriously, if it's bad (and I do think that permanent, structural deficits are) why did it take us so long? And how do we make sure we don't do this again? The "Jobs War" around the globe gives every nation an interest in thrashing their currency, which has to stop somehow. The best way is to build up a system where the downside is very obvious. I don't yet know how to build that regime into globalism. Another topic for another day. | 2012-07-09T19:52:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14374 |
| When I called for a Jubilee with debt forgiveness and a new international agreement on currency, I assumed that something like budget balance would come into it. So yes, I think we should have an agreement and perhaps that would give us the push we need to get this accomplished. But I wanted to put it in the growth framework, hence the QE with debt forgiveness as a first step. I would hope everyone could agree on it generally. | 2012-07-09T15:36:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14371 |
| I think we're already there, to be honest. If we move anywhere towards balance it will feel like austerity, and I can't see us continuing the way we have without a real budget even one more year. | 2012-07-09T15:34:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14370 |
| Been a while? :-) Thanks! I was going to do a whole post on that as an anaology, but it seemed pretty thin. | 2012-07-09T15:33:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14369 |
| I think it will have to go that way. Real tax reform would be nice, starting with a simpler system that isn't cobbled together with "breaks" here and there, but generally it has to move that way if Obama is going to rally the left and get us all excited enough to make something happen. And if it does happen ... well ... | 2012-07-09T13:07:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/09/the-french-example/#comment-14364 |
| I do not know just where the spring was, but like you I can imagine where it was. There is one sinkhole / cave that is bigger than the others that may be what the Spanish found so intriguing, but I'm sure that they noted all of them. I remember those frame houses and all of that area before Andrew. It was paradise. I had similar experiences sneaking into the estate as a kid in the late 70s / early 80s that I treasure beyond words. Somehow, they only show up in my life in contrast now that I've moved so far up north. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/songs-poems/short-stories/black-iguanas/ Best to you, brother! As long as we have the memories no one can keep us out of those walls. :-) |
2012-07-09T03:22:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/songs-poems/short-stories/cutler/#comment-14361 |
| Landfills, as we know them, are not at all designed to produce methane - they are kept as dry as possible and not turned over in any way. The trash that is put there is not sorted based on its potential value as nutrition for the bacteria that could produce methane. Having said that, regulations requiring the methane from existing facilities to be captured is reasonable - and potentially profitable. It would be far more interesting to explore what it would take to turn municipal solid waste into a net energy producer using anaerobic digestion. You'll note that I dealt with farm waste here, which is a pretty shameless punt on my part. The reason is that the waste or crops going into the system are pretty well known and start out separated well. Not so with municipal waste. I think it would be a great idea to start performing some small-scale experiments with municipal waste and seeing what we can reasonably do to turn it into a source of fuel. Requiring existing landfills, badly designed as they are for anearobic digestion, to capture what they can is very reasonable as well, IMHO. But it's nowhere near ready for prime-time as a source of a city's methane (currently natural gas). Yes, let's do it! Make what we can with what we have! |
2012-07-09T03:18:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-14360 |
| Hey, I'm the oldest GenX, so I get the crustacean award. :-) Seriously, back to the K-Waves, those definitions match the secular bear/bull markets perfectly. And they are less than one "generation" long - which is about 30 years now, or the media age of the parents at birth. Fascinating, no? | 2012-07-07T17:31:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14355 |
| I don't know what will motivate people the most at this point, but I think that people are starting to talk with each other about the economy - and that has to favor Dems right now. We will see. There appears to be even less enthusiasm on the Republican side - but low turnout favors them generally. | 2012-07-07T17:27:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14354 |
| Even if you aren't a fan of Obama, one of these two guys is going to be President. Which one you think will be better? :-) | 2012-07-07T17:26:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14353 |
| I am not sure about the Millenials, but the ones younger than them (born after about 2000) are not hopeful at all. I don't blame them. | 2012-07-07T17:25:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14352 |
| I think that's a common perspective. It could be a lot worse, but it's just not getting better - and no one is taking charge of the situation. That blame usually falls on the guy tat the top, right or wrong. So Obama does have a growing problem - unless this changes around fast. | 2012-07-06T19:45:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/06/unemployed-and-unenthusiastic/#comment-14345 |
| Thank you! I try to provide examples for everyone. :-) | 2012-07-05T19:44:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/04/flying-the-flag/#comment-14341 |
| Thank you! Been surviving the heat, hope you are OK as well. | 2012-07-05T19:44:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/04/flying-the-flag/#comment-14340 |
| Actually, I am reporting everything here as accurately as I can. To be honest, however, the idea that this is our catechism is something I stole from George Will. It really did come to me when I needed it most. :-) | 2012-07-04T15:21:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/04/flying-the-flag/#comment-14333 |
| I am never quite sure about Greenspan. He did understand the deflationary risk long before anyone else, but they had the data no one else did. Yes, I write about finance. I try to write about the stuff ordinary voters really should know - but somehow never makes it onto the news. There's a ton of background that seems to occupy a lot of space! As for a global currency, I think we can define one pretty easily. I've been thinking about this a lot, actually. Let's call it the "Trade Weighted Exchange" or TWX. It can be defined as a basket of the top currencies or a basket of top commodities, probably both. It would be great to have a "Central Bank" that does nothing but maintain the TWX and has no interference in sovereign nations. Here are the nations that together make up 50% of world trade (in 2011) with total imports and exports in $T: European Union $4,475 1 United States $3,825 2 China $3,641 3 Japan $1,596 4 United Kingdom $1,150 5 South Korea $1,082 6 Canada $921 7 India $793 8 Russia $748 9 If the TWX was half this and half the top commodities (not sure what they are right now, but I know it would include wheat, rice, oil, steel, and coffee!) weighted by their relative share, we'd have an exchange medium that would minimize the variation / risk. A Central Bank could hold reserves of each of these in the right proportions totaling about $5T ($14T total world trade less the roughly 2.8 turnover per year - just an estimate, tho!). Commodities could be purchased as futures in a way that helps stabilize the markets, then sold as they reach maturity for a small profit that would pay down the debt needed to capitalize such a bank. What you think? :-) |
2012-07-03T15:28:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14327 |
| Yes! That is exactly what I'm talking about! A little inflation will help us right now, to be honest. It would allow the Fed to raise rates and get out of the liquidity trap. It would also stabilize housing prices among other things. Just 5 years ago, in 2007, the rate on the 10yr TBill was over 5%. That's much more normal. Even if inflation was near 5% (versus less than 2% now) it would be a net gain for banks, because the real rate of return would actually be positive (!!). It would open up lending once again. So yes, some inflation is part of the plan. I would never advocate printing $3.7T right now, but printing $1T with an effect on the economy of more like $1.6T (just my own estimate) would be a great start! We could always have QE4 later if we had to, but I doubt it would be necessary. The other thing that is important is that if currencies all around the world print about as much (relative to their own economies) there would be inflation, yes, but the order of everything would stay pretty much intact. For the same $3.2T I'm talking about here among the top 4, the total world could theoretically print the equivalent of about $5T and forgive even more debt - and we'd all be in about the same place. I know gold is really popular and a lot of people like to rant about the inherent instability of "fiat" currencies like we have around the world, but the real problem is that we aren't using our "banking" currencies (alternative word) to their full potential right now. There's a shortage of cash all around the world, and a true "reflation" along with debt forgiveness will help a lot! But ... here's the catch ... it suggests that we really make a full reset and don't just throw cash into the old, decaying structures we have now. We need to make it a true investment in the Next Economy and a clear one-time shot. |
2012-07-02T20:18:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14322 |
| I didn't have any specific ideas on this with regard to international boundaries, but separating commercial banking from investment banking (ie, a new Glass-Steagal Act) would go a long way. Commercial banking is largely internal to any nation, and investment banking bleeds across borders all over. It's the best I can think of without really intervening in the free market, but there may be other steps that are worth taking. I tend to be pretty conservative when it comes to regulation. But I'm willing to hear other ideas. |
2012-07-02T20:10:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14321 |
| JP Morgan really is chilling, isn't it? They are clearly just playing games with little regard to consequences. I agree that they could fail shortly and I would love to see Jamie Dimond squirm. As for getting this going, we could convene the global conference and get this going right away as the first thing. I think that a lot of central bankers would agree to it, especially in unison, so it might help get things moving. Shared work is the best way to build community, so it might get them talking across many lines and help move the harder stuff forward. I did call for a new Bretton Woods in 2009, but I thought it was so obvious with the new administration and all that I didn't push it. I remain shocked that this has not happened. The best way to end a global shortage of dollars (ie, the reason why QE is attractive) is a new currency regime. Since we know one is coming, why not push it forward now? There will be a lot of support for such a move - and it will back China into a corner since they have been calling for this for a long time but still refuse full convertibility for the Yuan. It'll be put up or shut up time for them. There are a ton of details to this concept, some of which I could never anticipate on my own. But it really has to happen. (correction - it was October 2008 I wrote about Bretton Woods, and I saw an upcoming conference on the financial situation as the place where it would happen. Wow, was I naïve! http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/20/out-of-the-woods/ ) |
2012-07-02T16:59:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14318 |
| I might just write an eBook on this topic. I have been looking for a good angle and this could be it. May have some spare time shortly, too. | 2012-07-02T16:53:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/07/02/jubilee/#comment-14317 |
| Happy Canada Day, too! :-) | 2012-06-29T21:04:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/29/decisions-decisions/#comment-14296 |
| I think people will like Obamacare more as they get to know it, too. | 2012-06-29T21:04:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/29/decisions-decisions/#comment-14295 |
| They are not printing more Euros, no. They are loaning money from a function of the ECB. It's really simple and yes, it took a serious crisis before they got around to it. Sigh. | 2012-06-29T21:03:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/29/decisions-decisions/#comment-14294 |
| Inflation is interesting, isn't it? A little bit is a good thing, but a lot is horrible. What is the right amount? The Fed did announce that they have a target of 2% (which we have been hitting square on lately!). I am very confident that the way out of this Depression is going to include debt forgiveness and a whole lot of inflation at some point, ideally coupled with serious productivity gains. It's either that or we become slaves to someone, and I don't see that holding up well, either. |
2012-06-27T18:35:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/27/velocity-of-money/#comment-14279 |
| Historically, it has been 2.5-3.0 in good times - such as in the 90s. When we talk about controlling the economy with loosening/tightening credit that's what we're really talking about. I won't share graphs going back into the 1960s because the different definitions of "money supply" produce very different peaks, and the details are pretty sketchy. I think this only works over one definition of "money" and only over a short time, to be honest. | 2012-06-27T15:44:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/27/velocity-of-money/#comment-14275 |
| Thanks. It is all about perception of value - and, as Adam Smith said, "All money is a matter of belief." Velocity is a derivative of money itself, more about the change in money, and so it apparently is entirely about perception of how well people are doing. I'm not finding anything more technical than that, sadly. I'll keep trying - and if you come up with anything please let us all know. | 2012-06-27T15:41:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/27/velocity-of-money/#comment-14274 |
| I've never seen anything on velocity that was not mostly psychology based. Expansion of credit makes people spend more, for example, but most of the effect has to do with the feeling that you have money to spend. | 2012-06-27T15:38:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/27/velocity-of-money/#comment-14273 |
| All I know is that things are going well there. They handled their banking crisis by nationalizing the banks that were failing (temporarily) and forgiving a lot of loans, so they got through the crisis back in 2009 and appear strong. That's about all there is that I can say! | 2012-06-26T22:15:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14263 |
| I don't have a good answer in any kind of flexible workforce, ie a "Gig Economy". It would be great if something more like "Guilds" were formed around professions, but that naturally relies on a restriction to a free market - and there are always hungry people out there who undercut as well as prospective clients who really don't care that much about quality. Formation of effective guilds with effective accreditation programs has proven to be essentially impossible. So backing away from the ideal case we go from absolutely nothing to ... ? I just don't have a good answer, short of full employment. |
2012-06-25T20:45:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14261 |
| You really hated the Marx, didn't you? That's OK, I want to update what he talked about and translate it into modern US terms - talk more about aspirations and opportunity. Sharing and community is a post that's been a long time coming but I think I'll hit it this week sometime. It should never be about "force", but social "coercion" to do the right thing has held great societies together for as long as they were effective. That's why I went on about "values" in response to Sheryl, above. Without values it does all fall apart, and that is the downside of a diverse world. But I do not think it has to be that way and I do not think that laws/taxes/etc replace social cohesion! | 2012-06-25T18:04:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/25/folk-inspiration/#comment-14259 |
| You're right - this is like the old fax chain! I'd appreciate any help you might be able to offer where it comes to boiling all of this down to a simple message. I have no problem with being a televangelist, though I have to get on teevee. I do look good in a white suit, however. :-) You understand what I want to do very well. Start with the deeper message and work out to the quick pitch. Then, in public, work that same process backwards. And copywrite all the materials and sue the bejaysus out of anyone who calls it all a "cult". :-) (kidding on that last part) |
2012-06-25T17:59:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/25/folk-inspiration/#comment-14258 |
| I can't claim that line, but I can't remember where I got it! Long time ago. :-) Fundamentalists of all kinds (Christian, Moslem, atheist, whatever) cannot claim a monopoly on values. We all have values that shape and are shaped by our perspective on the world. Pop culture seems to be amoral at best, as if there is no common sense of values that can possible appeal to a wide audience. I think that's BS and I further think we can develop really strong values that make sense in a diverse world where people are resilient, (more on that later!) social, and working to be truly happy in the long term (more on that, too!). |
2012-06-25T17:57:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/25/folk-inspiration/#comment-14257 |
| Won't disagree with you, but I will now offer this earlier post of mine on Marx as a bookend to this piece. Marx did have a tendency to be half-right about nearly everything, which is still quite remarkable for someone predicting the future centuries on. Leaving aside details like central planning (and you'll find I'm the most vocal critic of all forms of Big - Big Government, Big Business, Big Ideas, etc.) what is remarkable to me is an understanding of what people really want in the long run. It isn't really stuff, at least not once the basics of life are taken care of - at least not for most people. And there is a role for some central planning, assuming it works by and for the marketplace. Once again, it comes down to the long and short run of things - and nations like Brazil that have charted their own rise in the world seem to need some degree of organization, at the very least. It's worth a lot of thinking. We are going to enter a new economy before we end this Depression, and it will not be like the last one. Can we define it more than it defines us? What do we really want or need as a people? What basic values and aspirations go into this social thing called an "economy"? A free people organized democratically have to work it out for themselves, somehow. I'm sure that this starts by talking about it and keeping our minds very open, at least through an initial "brainstorming". | 2012-06-23T16:15:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14241 |
| I calculated $7.8T went outside the US in the last 20 years, summing up our balance of trade deficit. No nation can keep that up forever. It had to come down eventually, and we have to either make more stuff or consume less at some point. Nothing else seems to matter. All the debt will have to be forgiven at some point, collapse or not. |
2012-06-23T16:00:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/22/downgrade-with-a-yawn/#comment-14240 |
| OK, I'll admit that the demonizing has been important, but only because you admitted that Leninism isn't really Marxism. :-) It's a mixed-up history that I glossed over a bit too quickly - I really didn't want this to get too long (which it did anyway). But yes, Marx's insights were largely academic, very useful - and adopted far more widely than most people would ever understand. I find that fascinating, especially as I consider how more socialist nations appear to be doing quite well lately. The rise of Brasil, for example, is not a capitalist story, but one of a social concept of markets working in a way that seems global from the outset. The demonization of Marx is largely propaganda, yes. But it didn't stop Marxism all the same. Fascinating, iddn't it? We could talk about this for hours, I'm sure! ;_) |
2012-06-22T22:39:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14236 |
| I'm starting to wonder, too. Would like other opinions on this. | 2012-06-22T22:35:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/22/downgrade-with-a-yawn/#comment-14235 |
| With you on this. The corruption is obvious. | 2012-06-22T22:34:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/22/downgrade-with-a-yawn/#comment-14234 |
| To me, it comes down to how labor is organized. We all know that unions are on the decline, and I don't see that changing given the change in how work is being done (ie, the Gig Economy). I agree (and think Marx would, too!) that an authoritarian concept of sharing is not the ultimate. But the concept of a largely "classless society" is a pretty strong value here in the Midwest, even if it's not a reality. Much of this is a social contract which in traditional St Paul works out pretty well on a voluntary basis. China is a very strange example in so many ways, and I would like to think about it more. What on earth is their economy right now? |
2012-06-21T19:33:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14228 |
| Exactly. I think if we look at what we have achieved we can use American ideals and achievements and put them into a Marxist framework very easily - much more easily than they can make the narrative work for themselves in China, frankly. | 2012-06-21T16:13:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14226 |
| Marx lived a long time ago, yes, but he did see a lot of things happening in the future - things that are really only now coming to fruition. He did see the age of kings give way to capitalism and that eventually to something like the globalism we enjoy today. I think that, along with the way he viewed history (now accepted) as very valuable. Perhaps it's just another way that things are completely upside-down in today's world, but I do think there is a lesson here. |
2012-06-21T16:12:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14225 |
| Yes. We can learn a lot from many different places! An open mind takes in everything at face value, and Marx seems to have gotten a pretty bum take in history, IMHO. | 2012-06-20T14:40:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/20/workers-paradise/#comment-14219 |
| You and I are of a like mind. I was going somewhere else (next post!) but yes, a whole lotta stuff becomes a bit obvious when you take a step back and look at how mind-boggling history can be. We sure got lucky with FDR. Today, a cripple like him would be lucky to win as dog catcher. |
2012-06-20T01:20:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/18/how-to-not-stop-a-bank-run/#comment-14213 |
| Thank you. I really can't see any other way to handle this than an independent institution with a ton of experience, resources, and freedom from political concerns. Oh, and a very narrow charter where they only do this and nothing else. It just works so damned well! | 2012-06-18T18:21:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/18/how-to-not-stop-a-bank-run/#comment-14210 |
| It does seem like the cost of the mess is far higher than we can add up right now. There's a lot under the rug. | 2012-06-18T18:20:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/18/how-to-not-stop-a-bank-run/#comment-14209 |
| Agree completely on Bretton-Woods II - in fact, I'm deeply disappointed it hasn't happened yet (I predicted there would be one in 2009). A fixed exchange rate is interesting, I never thought of it. I hope that some kind of "Reset" is in the cards, especially as part of BWII, but I am sure there is a lot more that should be on the agenda as we think about it. | 2012-06-16T19:04:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14202 |
| Yes, $6T so far. I think another $3T is probably in the works, which is $1T for the US and EU and $0.5T for UK and Japan each. But that's rough. It all depends on how well it gets out into the world, and QE1 and QE2 went nowhere. So it's hard to count. | 2012-06-15T19:39:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14197 |
| I almost posted an open letter to the people of Europe reminding them that political union was always the plan. It followed on the reunification of Germany and more than a little fear of that new large nation. Putting it into the context of a unified Europe was definitely the plan, although what they could agree on first was a currency. Basically, they've been living together without being married. At some point there's strain and the least they have to do is open a joint checking account, if not really square it up. :-) |
2012-06-15T19:37:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14196 |
| Perhaps it could be set as something like an auction. If they announce a $1T program (because we do everything in trillions now) there could be a process for taking offers of loans/packages with a dollar amount and a definitive time frame. If they get offers of, say, $2T total we know it'll pay out at 50%. Maybe once it hits $2T some will pull out and it goes back to $1.7T making the payout (doing math ...) 59 cents on the dollar. | 2012-06-15T17:50:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14193 |
| That's the plan - do it in an orderly way. Think of it as a New Deal. | 2012-06-15T17:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/15/the-reset-button/#comment-14192 |
| Far from it, brother. None of this makes any sense. | 2012-06-14T14:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/13/bad-news-is-good-news/#comment-14186 |
| Thanks! I do want a radio invite, so I have to work on the pithy stuff. :-) | 2012-06-14T14:22:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/13/bad-news-is-good-news/#comment-14185 |
| They are totally detached from reality. They do not serve any useful purpose. My hunch is that if everything did fail we would hardly notice. That tells me that "Too Big to Fail" is long past. Ready for the Revolution? |
2012-06-13T16:24:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/13/bad-news-is-good-news/#comment-14182 |
| That did sneak up on us, didn't it? Hey, the global derivatives market is now $700T, which is also $0.7Q (for Quadrillion). So it could be worse - and might be one day soon. | 2012-06-13T16:22:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/13/bad-news-is-good-news/#comment-14181 |
| They will be replaced someday if this is all they have. | 2012-06-11T19:51:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/11/what-is-google/#comment-14165 |
| So far, that's true. I hope we can come up with a more directed one that makes more sense. | 2012-06-11T19:50:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/11/what-is-google/#comment-14164 |
| Yes, there has to be. Many people would like to know what's going on in their town and what businesses they like are up to. The model used now is a broadcast one. | 2012-06-11T19:50:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/11/what-is-google/#comment-14163 |
| No, I think your hatred is pretty universal. The whole thing is crude at best, and that's my point. I think they could find a way to provide services businesses actually want and have a greatly enhanced user experience at the same time, but they aren't trying. It's sad. | 2012-06-11T19:49:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/11/what-is-google/#comment-14162 |
| Just sang the Expo School Song at the graduation: Piece by Peace we build our community Word by word we sing our song Message by message we call the world to build Love, Joy, Peace, and Harmony! |
2012-06-08T17:22:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/08/the-big-parade/#comment-14153 |
| I agree, they do a good job. I'm happy with them. Unfortunately we're going with a charter school for Junior High, which is where I think the SPPS doesn't do as good of a job, but we do have many options here in St Paul and that is what counts. | 2012-06-08T17:21:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/08/the-big-parade/#comment-14152 |
| I cannot take all the credit for my kids! :-) | 2012-06-08T17:19:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/08/the-big-parade/#comment-14151 |
| You should stick with Schnitzel and sauerkraut, it is good for you! :-) | 2012-06-07T00:17:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14146 |
| "The five colors blind, The five tones deafen, The five tastes cloy." One version (Bynner?) of Tao Te Ching 12 :-) | 2012-06-06T21:20:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14144 |
| So it doesn't bother you to not really know what "fish sauce" is? :-) Also, the other thing about it is that you really can't taste it by itself, which violates a big rule of everything else I cook with. Lemon zest is definitely the way to go if you want a rich, complex lemon taste (such as in chicken or some baked goods), but for a quick hit I really like the juice. Just a teaspoon or two as an instant hit of sunshine! |
2012-06-06T21:16:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14143 |
| Potassium is good for you, generally, but I think it might be a bit much for some people. Have to watch that. | 2012-06-06T21:13:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14142 |
| I might just do that. :-) It is hard to pull my attention away from the great train wreck that is our international finance system, but it has to be done to maintain sanity. | 2012-06-06T16:06:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14138 |
| I don't do a lot of dairy - it's a thing with me. But I know a lot of people use various forms of cream and cheese to thicken sauces. Dunno. I'm more Asian in my approach, I guess. | 2012-06-06T16:05:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14137 |
| I think that's a secret many people don't admit easily. :-) How do I trust the stuff with all the fun characters on it? Eh, I dunno. You only live once, eh? :-) | 2012-06-06T16:04:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/06/secret-ingredients/#comment-14136 |
| Yes, at the least. It's insane. | 2012-06-04T20:59:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/04/small-ripple-big-waves/#comment-14128 |
| All I can think of is new regulation based on better disclosure. If a bank is selling a new product, they should have to provide some kind of simple risk assessment that they can stand behind. If it turns out to be far riskier than advertised, they should be forced to pay in a fairly automatic way (ie, let's not wait for the courts to work it out). That's about all I can think of at this time. It's not much, but regulations written around existing securities will only be worked around. Something more comprehensive has to be done, and disclosure still feels like the best thing for both the markets and the public. Anyone else have a better idea? |
2012-06-04T16:05:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/04/small-ripple-big-waves/#comment-14126 |
| This can't end well, no. What to do about it is another problem. We might have to just wait for it to die. | 2012-06-04T16:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/04/small-ripple-big-waves/#comment-14125 |
| I really have no idea what Europe will do. I'm still shocked that Ireland voted for austerity. | 2012-06-02T16:54:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/01/election-economics-pre-summer/#comment-14117 |
| Unless he sinks the buzzer-beater - I'm starting to agree with you. | 2012-06-01T18:35:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/01/election-economics-pre-summer/#comment-14109 |
| Yes, people have their own stuff. Keep in mind that low enthusiasm means low turnout, and that usually favors Republicans across the board. Obama won in 2008 on record turnout that's not likely to repeat. | 2012-06-01T15:24:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/06/01/election-economics-pre-summer/#comment-14106 |
| Yes, and people are wiling to work for them! | 2012-05-30T20:58:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/30/reluctant-spring/#comment-14100 |
| Now that hurts - because it's true! :-) Seriously, I had that same conversation several times, and I can't mention names because I was sworn to secrecy. But it seems like everyone I know has a project! As for the daytraders, it's almost surprising to find there are still some of them out there. This is a secular bear market, fer gooshsakes. This should flush out everyone that's left, more or less. Very ugly stuff. You and Jim both - what about Buffet's advice to invest in what you can see? Dez brought that up last time we talked about Basefook, and I think it's very wise. Any ideas on that 'round St Paul? | 2012-05-30T16:34:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/30/reluctant-spring/#comment-14098 |
| I think a lot of people didn't really consider the market one way or the other, but now have it firmly in their head that the whole thing is bad. Agree with your sage advice, but I fear that will be lost in the bad news that will come out of this for a while. | 2012-05-30T16:30:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/30/reluctant-spring/#comment-14097 |
| It does seem to me like the final straw, and we're not done seeing this play out with all the lawsuits. It will be in the nooze for a long time. | 2012-05-30T16:29:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/30/reluctant-spring/#comment-14096 |
| And that's what the Eurovision Song Contest is all about! Sweden just won with ... um, I guess I don't follow it. But they had the same idea, turned into something more like "European Idol" long before we ever thought of it. You're right about our popular culture, at its best. I've written before on the decline of Top 40, when everyone used to listen to the same stuff more or less. We don't anymore. It is a problem, silly as it seems. Economics, politics, and culture are really all reflections of the same basic notions and impulses in the end, which is why I write about all of them at once. The lack of a meaningful politics in this nation comes from a lack of cultural and economic cohesion, I think. It's very natural. But we can do our best to pull it back together. |
2012-05-28T20:15:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/28/union/#comment-14087 |
| Thanks! I was going to write the whole piece on the theme of a relationship - it seems that they are about to open a joint checking account without being engaged. But ... I demurred. :-) | 2012-05-28T20:11:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/28/union/#comment-14086 |
| It was a half-step and now they will have little choice but to take the whole leap together. I can't see it going any other way, really. The Euro is too valuable to them, and to the world. | 2012-05-28T17:51:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/28/union/#comment-14083 |
| Some of you have asked for the whole story, put together in one place. Here it is. Remember, this is all made up and not every use of a Hero's Journey has to have ALL of the pieces of the story: The Story of Danish Treat I learned how to make pastries from my Grandmother, who came from Denmark during the war. Though we spent many long hours in the kitchen rolling and baking, I never pictured myself doing this for a living. It wasn’t until my dear Nana passed on that I started to dream of her begging me to take her loving art to the world. Many long hours in my kitchen at home making samples and perfecting recipes gave me confidence in my dream. It wasn’t until I met Mary that I knew we could do it. She had the business sense that complimented my baking. Her belief in me, however, was the most important thing as we developed our pastries and business plan together. Getting the resources to make it happen wasn’t easy, however. It wasn’t until we showed up at the bank with a plate of Midnight Black Currant that we were able to convince them. It’s always been our secret recipe that makes an ordinary day into something special! We opened June 17th 2009. That day was exciting, but I stayed in the kitchen the whole time sweating over every batch. Mary stayed at the register for me the whole time. Everything had to be perfect and I wasn’t going to let it go. After a while we had customers who couldn’t start their day without a cup of our French Roast coffee and the pastry of their choice. Their compliments and simply being there every morning convinced me that I had achieved what I set out to. The bakery became my life, and I have enjoyed every minute of it since. Mary eventually left to pursue her own dream of managing venture capital projects. It was hard at first, but getting out of the kitchen to know our customers better from the register has been just great. Julio joined me in February 2010 directly out of pastry chef school and has been just fabulous. Since that time I’ve been proud to give back to the community and mentor other young entrepreneurs. I also travel around the world looking for new ideas, like our Tuscan Peach. It’s all possible because of you, our customers. Thank you so much! 368 words, so it might need some editing, but it's a good start on an "About Us" page. :-) |
2012-05-26T23:22:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-14079 |
| I could, yes. I should tell the story of Alexander Ramsey and his little brother, Justus. :-) Thanks! | 2012-05-25T17:33:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/25/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery/#comment-14077 |
| Thanks! | 2012-05-25T17:33:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/25/memorial-day-in-oakland-cemetery/#comment-14076 |
| I need to update my piece on "Marketism", because I believe we have never been a truly "Capitalist" nation: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/13/marketism/ (4 years old, and has problems) But we've always chosen open access to the market over pure rule by capital/money whenever they came into conflict. It goes way back in our history, from the National Road in 1780s, free schools in 1800s, the National Bank Crisis in 1820s, Homestead act, Sherman anti-trust act, and so on. This is what built our nation - NOT capitalism! |
2012-05-24T03:05:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14072 |
| I was trying pretty hard on that one, so I'm not sure it counts. :-) | 2012-05-24T03:01:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14071 |
| Where it stands right now is that it appears a new assessment of income potential at Basefook (my psuedo-cockney name for it) was issued a few days before the IPO at MS. It was clearly not made public, which is a problem for both MS and Basefook, since withholding material information ahead of an IPO is illegal. However, it also appears that the information was indeed shared with some potential investors, which is Insider Trading - much more serious. It's been further alleged that big names pulling big orders at the last minute had a lot to do with why NASDAQ got behind right at the open of the IPO, which is just outrageous. So there is a TON to sort out here, but it is definitely true that a generation is convinced that this is nothing but one big con. This appears to go to the nature of K-Waves, once again, and how we define these things called "Generations" that are clearly only a half-generation or so in length. I agree that this is a serious problem for the long haul. Let's go to the next level. My generation went to a 401k based on the theory that Social Security was a scam. So what comes next? All you need to do is believe in Secular Market Theory to ask that question, let alone utter, complete dismay in the whole system. The implications of this are vast and long lasting. They have just eaten the Golden Goose and appear to have no idea how serious it is. This is where a "socialist" like FDR has to come along and save Capitalism from itself - again. | 2012-05-23T21:20:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14066 |
| I'll give you this one. :-) Seriously, taking these guys on would be a nasty, dirty fight that won't help us out of the Depression one damned bit in the short run. But I'm starting to think that we're not getting out of this Depression at all until we do it. |
2012-05-23T21:13:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14065 |
| In the long run, the market will sort it out, I'm sure. In the long run, we're all dead. Regulation is useful for smoothing things out in the short run. While it does look like a lot of rules were at least bent, if not broken, I think it's a losing battle to regulate companies this far out of control. I agree that if the lawyers pick their bones it could change things, but JPM and GS are so big it's hard to imagine that happening. But you do have a common sense good way to look at it, as usual. Thanks! |
2012-05-23T21:11:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14064 |
| I'll agree with you, but tighter political union has to come first for the meat of this. Are they ready for that? The reason I stress inflation is that the ECB could do that on their own. |
2012-05-23T20:43:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14060 |
| Interesting. I know a lot of people agree with you, including my hero John Mauldin (there, I confessed my source for a lot of stuff!). But ... outside of organizing Bretton-Woods II (or is it III?) I'm not sure what else we can do. Bernanke does seem to be willing to give them any resources he can, and already has given them upwards of $2T on a tab. | 2012-05-23T20:41:04-00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14059 |
| I'm starting to think of this like trust-busting from a century ago. Your analogy of a forest is a very good one, and it was proven to be the way to go when Teddy Roosevelt took it on. These guys do not generate capital, they incinerate it. They are worse than useless. This IPO really is the last straw - and it's so public that there is almost certain to be action. Let's press the issue now, I say. Something does have to be done. |
2012-05-23T17:04:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14056 |
| Thanks for that, one Hell of a story. No less than Warren Buffet advises that people should invest in what they can see, so locally based microloans do seem to be a great way to go. They also go to very small businesses, the ones that have the most potential for expansion. So it's a big win-win all around. Good luck, I think you are seriously on to something! |
2012-05-23T17:02:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14055 |
| Thanks. This is seriously bad stuff and it has to stop. | 2012-05-23T17:00:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/23/ipo-im-pissed-off/#comment-14054 |
| Bold. I like that. :-) Here's a question for you, though: So we have a massive stimulus of some kind. But if it's funded by debt, aren't we just creating more trouble? Granted, nations with current account surpluses have more coming in than most, but taxing that away from private citizens will be tricky at best. It seems to me that debt forgiveness is definitely going to be a big part of the equation no matter what, and the easiest way to do that is with inflation. Or - is there another way through this? |
2012-05-22T20:39:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14044 |
| Very likely! Imagine being in the room with the big hitters from banks and Finance Ministers from big bureaucratic governments trying to negotiate to save your nation - can't be a lot of fun. | 2012-05-22T13:58:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14042 |
| Anna, it's not a smear - this guy is a dedicated socialist at the very least and has a distinct communist background. But yes, he sure does not talk like one. He's committed to the Euro and is talking about genuine economic growth - especially in the private sector. What makes him a socialist is that he clearly thinks that more of the money loaned will have to be forgiven and he has little time for banks. But - he does understand the need for a stable banking system. As a package, he seems to be more or less in line with our US left, which is generally to the right of the left in Europe. So it's very confusing at best. It's probably never good to judge the politics of another nation from afar! :-) |
2012-05-21T18:07:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14040 |
| That's about where I am at with him. When you look at the deal already done, it really doesn't make a lot of sense - it's clearly designed more to make Germans go away than govern a nation. This guy does seem committed to important things like democracy and equality, and my hunch is that he can't possibly fail as badly as the previous generation, so why the Hell not? | 2012-05-21T17:55:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/21/greek-drama-new-act/#comment-14038 |
| Thanks! I have great kids, they have always been what I live for. I think the care shows in what great people they have become, if I can take a little credit. | 2012-05-19T18:00:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14024 |
| Thanks. I have kept my kids out of this because they have their own lives. But letting Thryn tell her own story is different. You should know this is just how we talk at dinner, too. | 2012-05-19T17:59:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14023 |
| Real social change comes in generations. But it's usually driven by young people who want to live in a different world than their parents - and they are not very patient. It all seems frustrating, but it works out in the long run. I know the world is safe when I see Thryn and her friends - they are going to do very well. They may even be another "Greatest Generation". Lord help them all that they don't have to prove it in a World War. | 2012-05-18T17:56:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14010 |
| Yes, it's best not to get too into what Germany can do for Europe - but they can do a lot more than they are. I found this article on what Greece can do for itself really interesting http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18101399 Rather right wingish in some ways, but I'm filing this one away in my li'l brain awaiting more information to either confirm or refute it. | 2012-05-18T17:54:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-14009 |
| You'll be hearing more from her. Not necessarily here, either. :-) | 2012-05-18T16:01:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14007 |
| Thanks. I never want to exploit my kids, as they are my entire life. But I will let them speak for themselves when it's reasonable. She's nearly 16 and, as you can see, can do that well. | 2012-05-18T16:00:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14006 |
| Most welcome. The world needs to know Thryn. :-) | 2012-05-18T15:59:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/18/next-generations-struggle/#comment-14005 |
| Thanks, I hope people with some money are reading, too! :-) I'm trying to highlight investments that would work right now, even if the economy doesn't pick up soon - transformational techs. I understand some of the thirst for internet app based companies, but if they would only look beyond the immediate sector there are many opportunities, even in a down economy. I agree on Germany, although their manufacturing base is still important. It should, however, be used as a springboard for a center of technology. I think their natural place to develop is where they are moving now and have been for hundreds of years - to the East. But Southern Europe would be interesting as well. There are also opportunities where they fit in very well with Latin America as the high-tech partner meeting resources and cheaper labor - plus, Latin America is already fairly well developed in places. I think you already see this in Brazil, so it's not a stretch. But yes, Germany needs a sandbox to play in. They have a lot to give the world if it's done well. Damnitall, we do need some kind of Bretton-Woods agreement on currencies, pricing, and maybe a solid Metternich "sphere of influence" agreement as well. What does the G20 actually talk about? Who would lead some kind of global re-alignment? |
2012-05-17T17:54:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13993 |
| I don't think this can continue, either. We are awash with "stimulus" dollars that are sitting on deposit with the Fed and not getting out into the economy. That's what the last piece was really all about - there are good ideas out there for incredible transformations but they are not getting the resources they need. Meanwhile, the people who making money by playing with money are taking on more and more risk in forms that no one really understands. We need a "New Deal". The old hand has played itself out, and it's time to reshuffle the cards. I don't think there are too many people out there who wouldn't be happy playing the hand they get, but they don't have a chip and a chair to play the game. That's just fundamentally un-American. |
2012-05-17T14:13:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13991 |
| There simply is not a mechanism to act in a timely manner in Europe. This could have all been solved years ago - which is how we handled it. Now we're looking at a general failure of Greek Banks: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18099336 That cannot be allowed to happen. |
2012-05-17T05:31:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13989 |
| I hadn't really thought about what we might have to do in this. I suppose we do have to be a part of it at some point. I know the Fed has funneled some money their direction, but then again the Fed are the only ones actually doing something about this problem. It's hard to imagine Europe coming apart because it feels like armageddon. There must be some role for us in this. Bretton-Woods? Another Marshall Plan? The last time we had this debt as a share of GDP (and more!) was at the end of WWII, and we grew our way out of that rather than pay it off. Thinking about this globally is a real headache no matter what. You're right, there has to be some role for us - and the developing world. Getting that together is almost as hard to image as the post-apocalyptic landscape that remains if the Euro fails. |
2012-05-16T23:36:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13987 |
| The differences between the US and Europe are pretty stark, and they fascinate me. I don't entirely know what it means over the long haul, but our complacency is chilling IMHO. I think it's obvious that some level of forgiveness is going to have to be part of the package all around the world, but we do it all as a backroom deal - and rarely cut the little people in on it. I think I like the European system much better - despite some obvious faults. Then again, I think we're more likely to get through this at least in the short term. | 2012-05-16T23:32:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13986 |
| They do have an open democratic process that makes ours look pretty closed, yes. I hope it delivers them something good in the end because I can only see civil unrest growing at this point. As long as it makes something good happen, I'm OK with that. | 2012-05-16T18:04:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13981 |
| Yes, they are having he debate! That is what I think counts. However, they are also dragging their feet and really pulling down the rest of the developed world. This beast called "Europe" is pretty disorganized. You make excellent points. | 2012-05-16T18:03:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13980 |
| She is a very interesting person, and very hard to get to know well. The more I think about it there were quite a few colorful conservatives in Europe, especially Berlusconi of Italy and Sarkozy of France. I would describe Merkel as more "technocratic" largely because of who she has appointed to key positions - and her own quiet, slightly mysterious demeanor. But looking over photos to find a good one showed me that she is actually very expressive. I think I like her, even if I disagree with her hard line on austerity. | 2012-05-16T18:02:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/16/merkel-alone/#comment-13979 |
| I'm shootin' fer Oprah! :-) I detect a bit of cynicism here, which is justified. It's easy to pontificate, but it never looks all that great - especially on this topic. But the meat of this one came to me when reading "The Coming Jobs War" - we need to get stuff done. And there's a lot of good stuff out there that can be done! Why isn't it happening? If Babs or the Maha-Rushie helps advance that, well, I'm down with them. :-) |
2012-05-15T01:58:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13969 |
| The good news about the UK is they got through it and seem to be relatively happy today. Not quite the Empire, but hey ... that should never have been all theirs in the first place, IMHO. But yes, we always seem to find money when we need it. Here we are in a national emergency and ... where's the dough? Oh, yes, Facebook gets theirs, as do the Vikings. What? It doesn't make any sense. I still believe in the free market, but it is falling down pretty badly here. I do think this is exactly what the Kondratieff "Winter" is all about. Sooner or later, it has to get better - or else we just fail and consume a lot less energy for that reason. |
2012-05-14T21:13:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13967 |
| You ask many of the right questions. There is a role for government here because any major changes to the system need to be at least coordinated. In the case of the technologies described there are a lot of permitting and related functions that must be done with our eyes wide open and a real drive to do it right the first time - not just go willy-nilly into it as we did with ethanol, for example. However, there is also potential for a lot of money to be made in the process. Motor vehicle fuels will continue to be expensive no matter what is done, so there is room for new processes that are not as cheap as simply pulling oil out of the ground and refining it. And there is a major national security interest outlined. The decline of our manufacturing base is very much the real problem at the heart of this, although it is also a symptom of the bigger problem of what we value as a people. It does all tie together. BUT - if there is any truth to the statements that we will live in a world that is increasingly driven by new technologies, we are falling down badly in areas that are difficult to implement. That is a serious problem because implementation is at the heart of technology. All I have done here is highlight a critical need that can indeed be matched by technologies with great potential. And yet they are not moving forward very quickly at all (with the possible exception of turbine electric hybrids). There is a lot to think about here. |
2012-05-14T18:08:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13964 |
| Thanks. In the end, these things called "politics" and "economics" are really all about values - what we value and what values we carry inside ourselves. If one or both of them are broken (as I think they are now!) we have to look to the root of the problem. It's not a lack of new ideas that's holding us back, that's for sure. | 2012-05-14T16:07:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13962 |
| Thanks. We're on the same page. It just can't be all about "technology" because we have the tech to transform our world - but we don't implement it. And yes, it's very true that some "socialist" nations are kicking our butt. If you think about what a genuine high-tech society looks like, the ability to get resources of all kinds in the hands of entrepreneurs is what will mark the pace of their growth. There is definitely a role for the private sector in this, as there is a role for competition. We are so far from that conversation it hurts to even think about it. |
2012-05-14T16:05:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13961 |
| I won't say I can get this all nailed down in 800 words, but I wanted to at least get at the heart of it. By all means, add to the argument! Your observation that many of these small businesses are under-capitalized is very important. We should try to keep an eye on that. Capital is still very hard to get for small entrepreneurs trying to do something unusual. |
2012-05-14T16:02:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13960 |
| Thanks! >blush!< | 2012-05-14T16:01:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13959 |
| Perhaps I focused on the private capital markets too much, but that is what we have come to rely on for innovation. They lie at the heart of our system, so when the system is broken we have to ask what they are doing. If the answer is that they can't be fixed, then we should do what we can to regulate them out of existence. If they can be fixed, well, by all means let's do it. There is a lot more to this, yes, but I had to get the conversation going. And I needed some very clear examples before I went into it too far. |
2012-05-14T16:00:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/14/energy-implementation/#comment-13958 |
| Unless battery tech changes dramatically, the weight needed to carry enough energy for any decent range is massive. Chemical fuels being burned is still the best source for a range on the order of 300 miles, which is what we're used to. Good question, tho. I'm highlighting techs that are proven and can be dropped-in to our existing world without a ton of fuss, but there are always out-of-the-box ones that you never know how they'll play! | 2012-05-11T16:20:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/11/energy-turbine-electric-hybrids/#comment-13925 |
| Yes, being conservative. I think we can reasonably expect that if this was all fully implemented the 140B gallons of gasoline would be down below 50B, or a savings around 2/3. There are still a lot of gas-guzzlers on the road, for sure! Ford is working on cars like this, and UK Ford sponsored the Whisper Eco-Logic (it's a Ford platform!). Don't know about the other two, but they are aware of it. I think Ford will be the first ones to the market, which could be before 2016. |
2012-05-11T16:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/11/energy-turbine-electric-hybrids/#comment-13924 |
| Thanks. This still may be a bridge, but it's nearly drop-in today and the potential savings are pretty large. They can burn a wide variety of fuels, but gasoline is one of them (as is diesel!). Yes, this is best for long-distance fleets and so on, but I didn't get into trucking - or trains, which already use something like this and have for about 50 years. | 2012-05-11T16:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/11/energy-turbine-electric-hybrids/#comment-13923 |
| So many questions! :-) Yes, buses are terrible, but passenger*miles per gallon makes it work out. Still not great at best. I have been told that streetcars/LRT are about 4X as efficient, but the calculation is long and I have not verified what went into it. 36-40% is an upper limit for turning force from heat in all practical senses. Your basic powerplant gets around that as well, so doing it on a small scale is quite impressive. It's a measure of the work out as energy divided by the heat in as energy, so it's a very real number. In all these systems a man named Carnot figured out these limits long ago, and it's all based on the temperature difference they operate under. The formula for the max possible efficiency is (Temp(hot) - Temp(cold)) / Temp(hot) , where the temp is all in absolute terms (ie, right now we are at about 293K, or 20C). |
2012-05-11T16:14:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/11/energy-turbine-electric-hybrids/#comment-13922 |
| Given that there is one source of input and it is diminishing rapidly (ie the cost of production is increasing) I really don't expect much from the market. Perhaps I should, and a greater than 30% up-down for almost no reason is pretty awful. Speculators know they have something that will go away in the future, and they are very hard to keep out of the market. Agree on "renewables", but that is the term most people know. I couldn't find a better one. As we discuss this some more I am open to any better term everyone comes up with. |
2012-05-11T15:17:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13917 |
| Yes on all counts. The newest regulations in place on fracking seem to take care of at least the worst excesses, some of which were taking place even before 2005. They really gave the industry a bad name. It is important to note, however, that fracking is still used for only a small fraction of natural gas production - there are many sources. | 2012-05-11T15:14:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13916 |
| Alan, you're right on here - I'm trying to start from zero with most people so bear with me on the details you already know! One astonishing thing, however, is that there has been a lot of research into anaerobic digestion and effluents of up to 70% methane have been achieved over a long run time. I don't really understand how they got it that high, to be honest, but it has to be close to the max we'll ever get. But it's still impressive and makes this tech much more appealing. The real key is always to leave the carbon in the ground as much as we possibly can. Methane is a bad actor in the air, for sure, for many reasons beyond even greenhouse gases. We do not want it getting out, and strict standards around billions of reactors are going to be essential. But the tech is there and has great potential - given the other things that are developing as well! |
2012-05-11T15:11:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13915 |
| OK, back up a bit. Methane, released into the atmosphere, is a big absorber of sunlight and a greenhouse gas. When burned it makes carbon dioxide (CO2). If the methane is produced by plants that have absorbed CO2 in sunlight there is a complete "carbon cycle" that is very different from carbon that is pulled out of the ground and removed from the atmosphere. Would a lot of methane digesters put raw methane into the atmosphere? It's worth thinking about, but I sincerely doubt it. Everywhere things rot methane is being released now. The process described captures it to put it to work in a human based carbon cycle. If anything, I would think that a system like this would result in less methane being released than what we have now. |
2012-05-10T20:49:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13905 |
| A lot of good points! Yes, biogas is far, far from new. It also does have its problems, especially in an urban area - which is why I left the municipal solid waste alone for now (although coupling it with an existing sewage treatment plant as a finishing step gets around many of the problems with smell, residuals, etc). Should we jump on this bandwagon and install digesters everywhere willy-nilly? Absolutely not! The ethanol example shows us a lot of what can go wrong, for sure, and I hope we learned from that. Note that in the diagram I included a "Water Recovery" step, which is absolutely essential to making this work safely and environmentally. What I am attempting to highlight, however, is that it is possible to make this stuff in scattered sites once we solve the transportation problem - which the previous post shows a tech that could do this. And the capacity is roughly what we need to be able to grow our own fuel, meaning that this could sustain the entire economy. That may be questionable, but stay tuned until tomorrow because conservation still plays a big role in our overall needs and capacity. But your caution is very well advised. The main difference between this and ethanol (or, for that matter, hydrogen) and their boosters working the halls of power far harder than the lab is that this has the support it needs to meet very tough standards in a practical, economical implementation. We should insist on very high standards. While there is a crisis today, moving to energy independence with a methane economy based on natural gas first is a critical step before we jump all over the potential for renewable energy from our farms. We have the technology and, more importantly, we have the time to implement it right. Whether or not we have the will to do it right is another dimension, and I agree with you that we have got to find it. |
2012-05-10T18:13:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13903 |
| You are very right. As Bill Clinton said, "There is nothing wrong with American that can't be fixed by what is right with America." I do believe that. It's a matter of getting our priorities and values right. And I am doing my part to get the message out, but I appreciate all the help I can get! |
2012-05-09T21:51:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13900 |
| Thank you. I have been wondering about this stuff since High School. | 2012-05-09T21:49:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13899 |
| We can, and do, feed a lot of the world. We currently have a lot of land raising corn for ethanol, so we would only have to change that over to a native grass (switchgrass grows well up here!) to make material for digesters. And let's not forget America's #1 crop - grass on people's lawns! :-) | 2012-05-09T21:49:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13898 |
| I am very sorry about that! I have tried to get to the bottom of it, but it's still a problem. | 2012-05-09T21:47:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13897 |
| It's very far along, and being implemented all around the world. I didn't dwell on municipal waste (garbage) as much because something tells me that this being so centrally located it might make more sense to do this along with municipal sewage as a source of natural gas for heat. But the principle is the same. Landfills are NOT optimized to make methane by any stretch, but they do. And it's being tapped. That same garbage can be sorted and the conditions optimized to make a LOT of methane if we want to! |
2012-05-09T21:47:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/09/energy-biogas/#comment-13896 |
| Sorry it took me so long to respond, but I was kidnapped. :-) Seriously, they will try to feed a lot of crap into the debate, as they have done so far, but I don't think it'll get any worse than that. Yes, the whole "Drill, baby drill!" nonsense came from Kochs, et al, but I really don't think they killed anyone. Or kidnapped them. :-) |
2012-05-08T00:10:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13884 |
| You guys keep getting ahead of me! :-) Yes, that is exactly what I am describing, although the fun parts are still coming. This is the crucial step that I think is often missing. I am highlighting 3 proven, available technologies this week and will sum them up next Monday - it's all planned out. :-) I do want to emphasize that I am also against ongoing subsidies, preferring instead to develop needed technologies that benefit the whole economy via "challenge grants" with very specific goals. I can't emphasize that enough. |
2012-05-07T18:36:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13882 |
| Sure. I'll start with this piece in the NY Times on the topic by Joe Nocera: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/28/opinion/nocera-how-to-frack-responsibly.html I have not found a good article yet on the new regulations, but my understanding is that some say they adequately cover the nasty chemicals used and others do not. I left it alone for now until I have a better answer. I do know that a lot of people believe that fracking can be done safely IF we regulate it appropriately - the horror stories come from a completely unregulated system. Also, it's worth noting that something like 15% of our natural gas currently comes from fracking, although that is expected to increase dramatically. What I'm most interested in is capturing the tremendous amount of gas that is still "flared" around the world, estimated by the World Bank to be enough to power Germany and Italy combined. http://rru.worldbank.org/documents/publicpolicyjournal/gerner.pdf Smaller units that could be brought directly to the well site that would condense methane into a transportable liquid would be the best way to capture that, and I think this remains the ultimate goal for this technology. |
2012-05-07T17:31:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13880 |
| Good ideas take time to implement, that I am sure of. But this is something that would change the world, yes. It's that important. And we should be all over it - if for no other reason than to make a big pile of money. I can't answer any of your questions other than to surmise that most people with a lot of dough have little imagination and almost no connection to real technology development. There are a lot of people these daze who think that "tech" means "internet", after all. Chemistry and engineering must go right past them. |
2012-05-07T16:25:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13878 |
| There's only so much time in the day, what with all the Khardashian-based "news" to report. :-) Seriously, I don't know why these things aren't talked about. I look at it as an opportunity for myself. Thanks! | 2012-05-07T16:22:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/07/energy-a-methane-economy/#comment-13877 |
| That is an excellent question! I have noticed that before and after the English Civil War there is a huge change in the language, as if Modern English really starts abruptly with the Stuart Restoration. But I have yet to find a single scholar to support this! My own theory is that the upheaval of that period completed a lot of the mixing that changed the language, including a tremendous flight of people for various reasons to the colonies in the Caribbean, North America, and so on. But this is not the accepted line. I honestly don't know. | 2012-05-06T23:45:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/08/the-great-vowel-shift/#comment-13868 |
| There does seem to be a ceiling around $110 right now, but that will not last forever. We can't say for sure what that comes from, but old wells with a little bit left to extract is as good of a guess as any. At some point, that oil will run out - but there will be still some oil that is economical to extract at $115, $120, and so on. How much? We can't say for sure. What can we do about speculators? I have yet to hear about anything big and obvious that will clearly work. But little things have been proposed that will affect it at the margins. Nearly everything is held up in Congress that can be (yes, it's politics as we know it!) so the Obama administration is doing what it can with existing authority. It does not seem like much at all. |
2012-05-04T18:55:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13863 |
| I agree with your conclusion, but while big oil and big speculators make a lot of money they only control so much of the market. The magic of the Koch Brothers is that they inherited (not invented themselves!) the tech and capacity to control much of the refining in the US. That is always the choke-point in the system. Crude oil itself is a different beast. There is a problem when it looks like speculators are making price fluctuations worse, and that does seem to be the case. They only can do that because all oil is priced in dollars and controlled by a small number of capital centers. Believe me, the developing world is as upset by this as anyone here - and that's why they are going to challenge the status quo by paying in their own currencies whenever they can. |
2012-05-04T18:20:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13861 |
| An excellent point, but I doubt it's that simple. We can't be sure it will bounce between $80-$110 because the price is being driven upward by increased demand. If we were to sell off enough to influence the market now we might be left with no reserves and a price that is still as high as it is now in a short time. But yes, a lot of "buffer" capacity would be the same as a properly functioning futures market. The latter is supposed to be the sophisticated answer to the problem, getting around the need for huge, idle stores of inventory with innovation. It does not seem to work as well as advertised. |
2012-05-04T18:16:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13860 |
| You are right about rail, etc, but there are alternatives that could be ready in a few years if we put our minds to it. More on that on Monday. :-) There isn't anything quite ready for prime-time right now, but it can be done. | 2012-05-04T18:13:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13859 |
| Thanks. I wanted to present the reason why the market is failing as clearly as possible. It is working quite well, but it is not a truly "free" or open market because there are no alternative sources of supply and there are barriers to entry in the form of set investments in refineries, etc. But it is doing very well all the same. Alternative energy can, and will, improve the market. |
2012-05-04T18:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/04/energy-the-market/#comment-13858 |
| It has degraded substantially, yes. But in actual Mexican communities it still has a lot of meaning. | 2012-05-02T21:31:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13846 |
| Let me tell you a story from when I first moved here from Florida. I was in line at Target and a woman came up behind me with a small child that was fussing and whining and being a toddler generally. They also happened to be black. I looked at them and said, "Ma'am, you only have one thing, I can see he wants out of here, you go on ahead." Her reply was, "Thank you very much - you must not be from around here!" I think I knew what she meant. I have never identified with white people in Minnesota, despite my pale exterior. I am simply not a member of the club. And I never, not for one moment, thought this place was particularly "Progressive". Clubby, yes. Oh, and the Indian was updated so he's not riding off into the sunset anymore: http://www.statesymbolsusa.org/Minnesota/stateSEAL.html |
2012-05-02T20:52:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13844 |
| Yes, if only we would. That's why I tell the story this way, I think it can get us to think about our relationship a bit differently - and hopefully move ahead to where we should be. | 2012-05-02T17:07:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13842 |
| I can't see it any other way. We're tied together in ways that we don't really understand nor appreciate as fully as we should. | 2012-05-02T17:06:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13841 |
| >blush!< Thanks! :-) | 2012-05-02T17:05:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/05/02/cinco-de-mayo-2/#comment-13840 |
| With you on Walker, Smithson, but most of the time I'm more likely to say it's degrading to tribalism quickly. Neo-cons were the ultimate confusion for me, spending money like sailors on leave and making budget hawks out of many of my DFL friends. As for actual austerity, the way the Republicans abandoned Paul Ryan last year convinced me that none of them have a real stomach for it after all. The failure of the Super Committee (and subsequent lack of sequestration) only hardened that position. So I'll go with my occupier friend here :-) I say there is a difference between them, but it's not that big. We surely don't have any Angela Merkel (or even a David Cameron) on these shores! I would like to have that debate, BTW, and I hope that I expressed at least some sympathy for Romney in this post. This is what we should be talking about, IMHO. And bringing it up hit some seriously interesting comments that challenge me more than usual! |
2012-04-30T20:55:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13834 |
| Interesting way to look at it from both of you. What should we do? I've always tried to emphasize things like fair contests or paying for infrastructure we know we need as ways of goosing the economy, rather than "picking winners". I guess that makes me pretty queasy, too. Getting our house in order will be tricky at best, but I still think that stimulating growth now and growing our way out of as much as we can will make it all easier later, not the other way 'round - but ONLY if we are very strategic about how we do it, which is to say have an emphasis on restructuring the economy and not just creating jobs. Does that make sense? I've been pushing this for a long time and have yet to hear anyone pick up on it, so either no one gets it or they think it's a dumb distinction. |
2012-04-30T20:49:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13833 |
| I'm not sure what those terms mean to most people these days, however. For one, I'm not sure I know of any "liberals" in that mold that are less than about 50 years old now - those of us who grew up with Reagan have at least some of his free market philosophy deep in our bones. As for "conservatives", I doubt that Barry Goldwater would see the expansion of credit as anything other than a monster that is devouring us all. Not that there isn't an important "left" and "right", but I think the terms of what is important to each side are being worked out through internal struggles among both of them. |
2012-04-30T19:11:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13828 |
| As usual, I think you are exactly right. Creating jobs, even make-work jobs, ill get the money into the economy where it needs to be right now. Whatever the Fed can do by printing money or making rates low is not going to help anyone but those who created the credit bubble in the first place. The infrastructure gap is between 1 and 2 trillion bucks, according to anyone who has studied it. Granted, we're not a nation of people used to manual labor anymore, so it may not be easy to fix it overnight even with a lot of money. But many things have to change, so the sooner we get started the better. |
2012-04-30T17:11:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13826 |
| If that's what his campaign is all about, I think we'll have a great discussion on the future of the US - may the best man win. I look forward to that, I really do. These attempts at pithy one-liners are not serving anyone right now, including Romney himself. That last one really does have trouble written all over it, especially with the reputation as a flip-flopper. | 2012-04-30T17:08:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/30/growth-or-austerity/#comment-13825 |
| Excellent question, I should have said something about this a long time ago. The economy grows for many reasons - inflation makes the numbers look better, but we also gain population with time. There is also a matter of expectations, not a small thing when considering what makes up fear vs greed. If we expect to have more but don't we feel relatively poor. 3.3% is a regression line, not necessarily a real thing. But it's a rough measure of all the different things that go into the point where the economy is growing enough that employers have confidence. It could well be a bit lower right now, and the more I think about it falling expectations will give employers a sense of optimism at a much lower number. So you have a point - we may indeed be at a place in the cycles where something very close to zero might signal optimism. |
2012-04-28T18:27:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13816 |
| Yes, that is a lot of what I'm going on. I have been hearing stories like this, too. | 2012-04-27T21:25:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13813 |
| You are very correct - I hadn't thought of it that way, but if this does work out we should trumpet the results loudly. | 2012-04-27T21:24:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13812 |
| We'll see! Yours is the more prudent position, but I had to take a stand. | 2012-04-27T21:23:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13811 |
| The very short term trend is that jobs are leading, but it's only obvious over the last 4-5 months. That we have any growth at all is what I would like people to focus on. I could be wrong here, but the bet is a simple one - I see more jobs out there all the time and some general optimism at the retail level. The markets and the big decision makers at large companies are focused on the global economic system, especially Europe. My contention has always been that because this situation is not a typical "recession" things will happen differently. One thing we have to expect is that when things do change, leadership will come from the bottom-up. That does not mean that we are changing now, but I sense that we are. Hence the prediction. Could it all fall down? Yup. The increase in weekly initial claims is not a good thing, for sure. But - people are making opportunities for themselves any way they can, and small firms are scratching their way up. I do think that there is more positive momentum than the numbers reflect now, and that they will continue to turn upward. |
2012-04-27T16:59:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/27/gdp-the-bet/#comment-13807 |
| The debt accumulated will either be defaulted on or grown/inflated into. There are no other options. It cannot be handed over to the next generation because I am fairly certain they WILL simply default on it. My kids are very clear on that point. As to the "end of the empire", once again that is not necessarily the worst thing in the world. We will not be overrun by barbarians like Rome, but we could settle back like the UK. But yes, we cannot continue as we did in the 2000s for any length of time - the deficit spending was severe through that whole period. |
2012-04-26T00:12:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/25/k-waves/#comment-13796 |
| Yes, this needs to be taught. It is an excellent tool for getting people to think beyond their own little world and to understand that most of what we think is unique is, perhaps, unusual but not unheard of. In a Bear Market like we have now, topics like this are very common. "It's not your fault, we're in a secular Bear Market" seems to be the general thinking - but no one ever says, "I'm not brilliant, it's a secular Bull Market". Human nature, again, at work. But this has great implications for a retirement scheme based on the stock market, among other things. We do need to understand this and what it means for the course of our lives. |
2012-04-25T18:24:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/25/k-waves/#comment-13793 |
| Thanks >blush!< - but I do think that's what this is all about - something innate within us. It's been part of civilization since the start, after all. | 2012-04-25T18:21:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/25/k-waves/#comment-13792 |
| Yes on all counts - this is pretty obvious, IMHO, but you have to think in the longer term to understand it. But it does explain an awful lot! | 2012-04-25T18:21:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/25/k-waves/#comment-13791 |
| Yes on all points! There is always the chance that we have been poisoning ourselves for a long time. Lead compounds were added to wine for over 2000 years to make them sweeter and more complex, for example - a very bad idea. Generally, however, the things that research zeros in on to study are new synthetic chemicals that are new to our environment. Does everything cause cancer? Take that a bit further and look at allergies, really food sensitivities - I have a reaction to shellfish. Everyone is different and everyone has a different tolerance for everything. It's pretty rare that something reaches the level where it's so obviously toxic that it should be banned, but what is the appropriate threshold for doing that? How can people know what's in the food they eat or, more interestingly, the air they breathe and the water they drink? You raise a very good point, and it's one that I don't have an answer to. It is worth re-evaluating our regulatory framework constantly to make sure it makes sense. Certainly, the popular media does a terrible job of reporting most of these kinds of issues - but to be fair it's a hard thing to do well. It takes a lot of education and background to even get close. What I can say is that we've gone more and more to disclosure on food labels so that people can make up their own minds, and to me that's a good thing. I think the really obvious bad actors, like lead, have largely been dealt with and I've very glad that was banned from nearly everything (such as gasoline). Where we go from here is a good question! |
2012-04-23T16:08:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/23/science-technology-public-life/#comment-13774 |
| There is a huge difference between the scientific mind's skepticism and a blatant refusal to accept what is in front of us. That's why I wanted to start with a magnifying glass, an experiment a kid might do casually. Revelation of a "new world" not seen before causes many reactions in people, and recording what that new world is all about is necessarily colored by the person recording it. Understanding that bias is very important, and a bit of training can fit it into a bigger picture much more easily. But there are always those who, in this example, might want to deny that the bug even exists. Those of us who practice the questioning of science or the practical rendering of technology are at our best when we are as clear as possible what we are representing when we are called on to make our point. In public policy that is difficult and hard to render in "sound bites", but it can be done. Usually, however, it takes a lot of time and care. |
2012-04-23T15:46:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/23/science-technology-public-life/#comment-13772 |
| I love that joke too, but I never thought of "creative accounting". :-) I am a bit of a global warming skeptic, but that's the scientist in me. I've run enough samples through Infrared analysis to know that while carbon dioxide absorbs like crazy in that region, water does even more - and there's a lot more of it in the atmosphere! I do think there is a lot more to the story than what Al Gore will tell us, but it also is true that what we are doing is not a good thing no matter how we look at it. The alternative view - that this just happens, possibly because the sun winks on and off a tiny bit - may well be proven in the next 10 years as a major sunspot maximum since the 1950s has suddenly ended and there is evidence that the planet is already cooling a bit. How much? We'll see. Faith is another area - you're trying to push all my buttons at once! :-) What I will say is that what cannot be proven or disproven by science leaves a LOT of room for faith, and many scientists are indeed deeply spiritual. I honestly do not see a conflict between science and faith and I am always dismayed when debates rev up along those lines. |
2012-04-23T15:37:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/23/science-technology-public-life/#comment-13771 |
| You're right, this should have been a series. I guess it still could be! The advantage of an eBook is that I might be able to sell it, so perhaps I should go that direction. Excellent suggestion! Yes, I always go into the history. In this case it probably should have been left out to make an overly long post shorter. I broke the unity a bit. A series would have fixed that. Noted. |
2012-04-23T15:32:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/23/science-technology-public-life/#comment-13769 |
| OK, to the last point - the "next economy" is not necessarily what you or I might imagine, and economies transform gradually all the time. The job market in particular is always dynamic.However, the restructuring is especially stark in a recession / depression. Now, as to the last recession - if you assume that 300k per week initial claims is the "baseline" of a healthy economy (and it's close) then you can peel this away from the data shown above: 2001 "Recession": First above 300k/wk: November 2000 End above 300k/wk: Jan 2006 Total jobs lost net above 300k/wk: 20 million 2007 "Recession": First above 300k/wk: May 2006 End above 300k/wk: Nov 2013 (projected from data) Total jobs lost net above 300k/wk: 40 million Now, this is not to be taken as some kind of gospel truth, but it seems that the total "restructuring" part is about twice a fairly normal recession. The number is much larger than the net job loss, meaning that over the roughly 7.5 year period we don't lost ALL the jobs right away - some things keep moving on. But eventually it touches about 30% of all the jobs. If you look at this as approximate I think I would stand by it. Was that a longer answer than you expected? :-) |
2012-04-20T21:47:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13754 |
| A good point - reforms aimed at improving transparency are ALWAYS good for the economy, as far as I can tell. Yes, it's about $2T on deposit with the Fed, too. So I think you do have some excellent points, although the market is making its own adjustments. | 2012-04-20T21:35:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13753 |
| Yes, it is! :-) | 2012-04-20T18:59:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/18/the-conch-republic/#comment-13750 |
| An interesting point. I still think the overhead on each job is crushing and that the nature of work as we know it is changing (ie, "The Gig Economy"). We still need to adjust to those realities in policy and how we do things like taxation (that is, what does a W2 really mean anymore?). And we do still have a huge job deficit to make up - those 8-10 million un/under-employed. But we all know the Free Market(tm) does do its job eventually no matter what, so you do have a point. It's a question as to how "free" it is. |
2012-04-20T18:57:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13749 |
| Thanks. I don't know that enough people are watching this or even understand why there is a need for a serious restructuring. Remember, the official line among establishment figures (politicos, talking heads, etc) is that this is a "Great Recession" and not a more unusual even like a Depression. | 2012-04-20T18:54:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13748 |
| Anna, I think that's a two-parter. The first part is the much needed "reality check" that all of this data needs, and I would like to ask everyone if about 1/6 of their friends have a new job every year. I think that's about right, but my mileage may vary. The second part is one that I can't answer, which is that if this is all true how long does it take to restructure the whole economy. What I don't have here are how many of these positions are actually new - not just someone new filling the same slot. That figure has to be lower by definition. So I'll think about this some more and search for more data on employment dynamics. Incidentally, there are some reports on this stuff out there, but I didn't use them because it takes a year to collect the data and I honestly think we're in a completely different economy than we were a year ago (the point of this whole post, really). So I'm kind of winging it here trying to create a more real-time employment dynamics concept. |
2012-04-20T16:30:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/20/job-dynamics/#comment-13745 |
| That is an excellent idea! Perhaps there is a moral to this after all! | 2012-04-18T19:16:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/18/the-conch-republic/#comment-13734 |
| Me, too! (Thanks for commenting!) | 2012-04-18T16:53:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/18/the-conch-republic/#comment-13732 |
| I hope you can enjoy the day! :-) | 2012-04-18T16:52:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/18/the-conch-republic/#comment-13731 |
| This is supposed to scare you, but I want to leave it to the reader to decide how scared to be. I do think this is a serious problem, but there is enough sensationalism in the popular media. I'm trying to provide context as much as news that you might not read somewhere else. | 2012-04-17T02:21:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13725 |
| I largely disagree. The Fed Board of Governors certainly has very different friends than you and I do, for sure. Yet I do believe that they are at least sincere in their efforts to do what has to be done - regardless of the simple fact that they really don't have the charter or the tools to do it well. That does not mean that they are looking out for ordinary people per se, but for what they think is the right thing for ordinary people. In some ways, they are right - a functioning financial system employs millions and makes life as we know it possible. But it is damned unreasonable to have them do everything with the secrecy that they operate under - and a genuine threat to everything that created this world in the first place. And yes, Goldman (along with JP Morgan, et cetera) do try to run the world as much as they can. A reasonable government does far more to stop them than to try to use them for good - the latter is pretty much a lost cause, as per Greg Smith (the former employee). |
2012-04-16T21:04:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13722 |
| That's my view of what is happening, yes. I don't see anyone else running the show right now. | 2012-04-16T19:04:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13720 |
| Thanks. Speaking of taxes, I'm sure you are busy. We should make Wednesday "Love Your Accountant Day". :-) | 2012-04-16T16:09:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13716 |
| Yes, it does scare the Hell out of me. And I still have to finish my taxes, so I also have better things to think about. Yuck. | 2012-04-16T16:08:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/16/fed-on-overdrive/#comment-13715 |
| Well, it's gone up a bit since you posted, but yes. :-) I wasn't kidding about the pageviews. A lot of them are coming in from google thanks to so me SEO experiments that have worked out well - suffice it to say that most of what people talk about as SEO is outdated or just plain wrong. But there are a lot of people who read Barataria, and many of them come in on bookmarks. This audience is older and more international than most blogs, with about half the visitor being from outside the US - top nations are UK, Canada, Brazil, and Germany. | 2012-04-13T21:43:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13701 |
| "Just" a neighbor? Tsk, tsk ... :-) Seriously - I've been on the Federation Board of Directors off and on for 20 years (had a break when my kids were first born). I'm the Secretary. |
2012-04-13T21:08:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13700 |
| Thanks! For those of you who don't know her, Tonya was re-elected President of the Federation Board. Go Tonya! | 2012-04-13T21:05:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13699 |
| There is some subsidy that comes from city/state/fed sources, and there is also some support from foundations going into some of the Little Bohemia efforts. The Schmidt Brewery has some subsidy in the form of tax credits that come from Historic Property renovation that Dominium can use to offset profits elsewhere. There is not a lot of public money on the hook unless sales suffer greatly. That's part of the reason the project is being done in phases - to minimize risk. | 2012-04-13T21:05:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13698 |
| There is a balancing act for everything and it works best when the city engages the neighborhood. For example, there is now a plan to improve the speed and presence of the 54 express bus down West Seventh for about 1/10 the cost of the busway that was defeated - it will accomplish everything the more expensive plan would have but with far less damage to the street. I-35E was one of those things - a compromise no one is really happy with. I don't think the city writes tickets, but the state does sometimes. Remember that it took out about 1/4 of the housing in that part of West Seventh when it was built, which could have been devastating. It took us years to recover from the loss, but I think we're OK now. Little Bohemia is one of the neighborhoods that was severely damaged by that freeway. So anything to minimize the damage is still a good thing. |
2012-04-13T17:35:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13693 |
| District Councils are great, but it's very important to remember they are not a layer of government - just a tool for organizing and developing citizen participation. The most important thing is for people to get involved because the ones that don't work as well as the others generally rely on a very small group more than the whole community. Encouraging participation is really the most important thing. Space for artists to live and work is still the plan for the Schmidt Brewery, and it's moving ahead! |
2012-04-13T17:32:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13692 |
| No prob - Good to see ya, Andrew! | 2012-04-13T17:29:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/13/fort-road-federation/#comment-13691 |
| Thank you! I hope someone reading this is in a position to offer me something. I should add that I'm relatively cheap. :-) But if you look at the pieces I selected, many of them are fairly well written on my part - largely because they are subjects I think about often, so there was plenty of time to digest the ideas. Yet what really stands out is the depth and quality of the discussion that engaged a decent number of people. This is not something that happens on most other blogs and it is what I am most proud of. In short, it's not really about me - it's about a community of people working to understand the world around us. Knowledge is power, and I feel that Barataria is achieving something great - empowerment. Thank you all for making this happen! |
2012-04-12T14:20:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13680 |
| Here are the best posts from Oct-Apr, the second set. Thanks everyone! Decline, Fall, or Dance? http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/ The financial isolation of Iran http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/ The Dollar Standard is in trouble ... http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/ New World, not ordered http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/ What makes a Swing State? http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/ The Pills http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/ Growing Jobs, Revisited http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/ A new "Romantic Era"? http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/ When Failure is an Option http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/ Moral Hazards of bailouts http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/ For the Euro, it's Print or Die http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/ Socialized Risk, Privatized Profits http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/ Supply Side is dead http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/ |
2012-04-11T21:56:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13677 |
| Thank you! I especially appreciate people who don't agree with everything I say because I think that at the very least we can talk about important things where we need to understand each other. I hope to, if nothing else, lead by example. | 2012-04-11T19:28:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13676 |
| Thank you! That means a lot to me. Truth to Power is what I think the whole game is right now, and with the 'net we have the tools to do it like never before. It's all about doing it right, IMHO. | 2012-04-11T19:26:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13675 |
| I have been posting some highlights (ie, posts I like) from the last year on twitter. Here are the choices for the first 6 months: Labor creates all wealth http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/09/02/labor-creates-all-weath/ Just try something - the liquidity trap http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/ Fear the Dragon? China fears us, too http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/ Ben Bernanke - an interesting guy http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/ Founding Fathers - their most important lesson was cooperation http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/founding-fathers/ Restructuring the Economy http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/ The Managed Depression http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/ Containerized Cargo may have changed the world as much as the internet http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/ Suburbanization of Poverty - http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/04/13/suburbanization-of-poverty/ Barataria's year in review |
2012-04-11T18:37:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13672 |
| Thank you both! I will keep trying, and I may "sell out" someday - but to be honest, I really don't even know how to do that. | 2012-04-11T18:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13671 |
| Thank you, Anna - I especially appreciate all you've done to help me. Someday things will turn around, but for now I have to stay at it and do what I can. But all of this would not happen without people like you supporting me and slapping me down when I say something stupid. It's all better because of this community and I know that. Thank you again! | 2012-04-11T15:59:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13666 |
| Thank you very much! I'll continue to get by and maybe I'll make it to "The Bigs" someday. Sancho Panza is my hero. As Freidrich Neitzsche said, there are two types of people in this world - Don Quixote and Sancho Panza. When people see the Picasso pic they assume that I'm the mad Don himself, tilting at windmills. On the contrary, I see our world as full of Don Quixotes - people that have been driven mad by all the BS (including their own). I am a dutiful Sancho Panza, riding in humble service and doing my best to make sure that the rest of the world doesn't get into too much trouble until that wonderful day when the madness ends. In the end, Sancho was rewarded for his trouble with his own kingdom - Barataria, the "cheap lands", better known as a swamp. Barataria is all I ever ask for. :-) |
2012-04-11T15:57:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/11/five-years-on/#comment-13665 |
| all the time. :-) |
2012-04-10T19:12:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13653 |
| OK, I ran a regression, fitting a straight line to each. The BLS has an R squared of 0.07, which is to say it really is just about all noise - job creation in thousands is y = 4.9x + 66 (where x is the months after Jan 2010). That it doesn't intercept at zero is a problem, since that month was indeed the inflection point in job creation / loss. But we're accelerating 4.9k jobs per month. Doing the same for ADP we have an R Squared of 0.51, which is still lousy but much better. y = 7.0x + 33 in the same way, closer to a zero intercept, and we're accelerating by 7k jobs per month. By the ADP report, we'll be creating about 270k jobs per month by the election if this trend continues (which, given the quality of the fit, seems unreasonable as all Hell). |
2012-04-09T23:32:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13650 |
| The ADP report is less than 6 years old and not "official" http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/ner_faq.aspx#history Why Wall Street doesn't focus on it more is a bit of a mystery, but the "official" number is probably always going to trump anything. That "Establishment Survey" has been going on since 1939 and is traditional at this point. We have a lot of data through many recessions and it's kind of handy. But ... the modern ADP number is clearly a better method and the data seems to be much more consistent from month to month, as you would expect. I hope that puts this to rest. We'll see, tho. :-) | 2012-04-09T20:21:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13649 |
| Well, yes. They are wrong to the extent that they say there is some kind of trend from this one month of datum that might not even be a good number in the first place. It's a lot like reporting on public survey polls - if the margin or error is 4% and there is movement of 2% from one poll to the next, there is not actually any movement at all as far as you know. This just seems to be well within the noise, given the methods and the history, and the other method gave a different result. So it's "wrong" to say that job growth is slowing, yes. |
2012-04-09T17:48:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13647 |
| That's my call as well on the two. I didn't run a regression because there is a very real up and down to job growth with seasons and what-not, so I don't know that the variation would mean anything at all. It makes sense to me to start at the low point, Jan 2010, but that's not to say there haven't been several inflections since then. I don't think a regression would tell us an awful lot - especially since, as you can see, the two charts would almost certainly give us different trends. I'm thinking about it. Just wasn't an argument I wanted to lead with or spend a lot of time on. |
2012-04-09T16:38:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13645 |
| All that speculation is pure crap. Reporters never credit it as speculation, which is all it is, when the market falls or some piece of data comes it differently than expected. It's just nuts. Here's the inner workings of the two, you decide for yourself, I say. The most logical conclusion is that we're gaining jobs but it may be softening up some so watch out. | 2012-04-09T16:12:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13643 |
| Yes, that's the short version. But would you believe me if I just said that? :-) | 2012-04-09T16:10:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/09/whered-the-jobs-go/#comment-13642 |
| Thank you, I do find that to be the most important part. But I still propose solutions, rather than just complain. I like throwing ideas out there for everyone to think about more than anything, and background is important. Of course, writing a self-help book I can make a book out of is the next step. :-) | 2012-04-08T19:31:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13635 |
| Thank you! | 2012-04-06T19:50:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13630 |
| I gotcha. It's not that everyone is right, but everyone has a point to make from where they are standing. People aren't stupid, and they come to know and believe what they do for reasons. You may disagree with the reasons, but that does not make anyone necessarily either "wrong" or "right" - unless we're talking about a provable fact. As for raising kids or anything else someone does, I think there is a lot of room for "personal responsibility" - in fact, this should illuminate it. If you can really stand outside yourself you should be able to see yourself as others do. Does that picture really look as good as you'd like it to? Your example of raising kids is one close to my heart, of course. People are responsible for their children, absolutely, but in the end we all share what happens as they grow up to be citizens. I would hope that people could see what others think about their kids and how they are doing - how respectful the kids are, what their work ethic is, and so on. I'm very proud of my kids and I do tell them to think about what other people must think of them - it seems to have worked. I certainly apply that myself. But your angle, generally, is very rich and deserves more than I'm giving it here. This is not the usual "everyone is right" sort of stuff - it's more that everyone has a perspective on the world that at least deserves respect. I'd add "respect" to "personal responsibility" to make a list of things that need to be fleshed out to make this a real way of life. Thanks! |
2012-04-06T19:50:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13629 |
| Sheryl, you make an excellent point and that does need to be part of it. I'd like you to elaborate, if you have time - what do you think is the point where personal responsibility and being decent and civil come together? Does the idea of "standing outside yourself" sound too much like not taking responsibility? | 2012-04-06T17:05:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13626 |
| Amen, brother. Just trying to add what I can. | 2012-04-06T17:03:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13625 |
| That's the plan. Don't like the idea of a "movement" per se, but ... perhaps I can publish a book on the topic & become a self-styled guru - wait, that's all about "me", too! :-) | 2012-04-06T17:03:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/06/exstasism/#comment-13624 |
| I'm going to start with a few of my old pieces - I can get them well under 5 minutes without trouble. The kids and I have been playing with it for a bit, will have some stuff up tomorrow, I think. A 5 minute video is well over 1k words, from what I can see (I'm from the East, I talk rather fast) so there's a chance to take what I have and make it look pretty reasonable. | 2012-04-06T03:06:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13615 |
| Thanks! I'll keep doing this, but I hope I can get something out of a YouTube project eventually. So it's a matter of both! We're getting going with it now, so we'll see how quickly we can get some viddy up and goign somewhere. You're right, we have to go with a short attention span. That is the whole idea. I can cover the equivalent of about 1k words in 5 minutes by talking, so viddy actually lends itself to more detailed conversations if done right. That's what convinced me. But I'll keep it around 5 and see where it goes - unless you think even that is way long. Thanks! |
2012-04-05T12:56:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13613 |
| Thanks! Pretty much where I was going - reach a much bigger audience with short videos. Besides, I think I can get more like 1600 words worth into 5 minutes, which might be nice. | 2012-04-04T21:09:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13607 |
| Blame is not useful, you're right. I think I see a pattern - analysis with solutions, one topic at a time. But short and to the point. Focus on the work we have to do as a people - both in politics and outside of it. Social analysis / commentary is not getting many votes, but I may do a few all the same. Later on, though. Not sure how often I'll get to these, but I want to put a few out right away. |
2012-04-04T17:35:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13604 |
| Good advice, thanks! There are a lot of topics like the Depression that I have refined over the last year, with your help, that are worth re-visiting in one package. Will do! | 2012-04-04T17:33:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13603 |
| I'll just give it a shot, thanks! We start taping tonight, might have stuff up tomorrow. Mostly me talking, it seems. | 2012-04-04T17:31:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13602 |
| There are a lot of things going on that are not partisan in nature, given that most of our "politics" is completely detached from reality. I'll stick with that as a theme, I think. | 2012-04-04T17:31:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13601 |
| Good advice, thanks! Will take it to heart. | 2012-04-04T17:29:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/04/new-season-new-reasons/#comment-13600 |
| Our unique position on the earth could not go on forever, no. | 2012-04-03T12:49:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13589 |
| Amen. But I think what’s important is that we won’t have any choice but to retreat home because our global economic power is clearly going to wane. It would be smart to make this a plan and say it was our idea all along. :-) Seriously, our influence will not be what it was at our height, and that could very well be a good thing. The decline of the US Dollar standard also means that US manufacturing will have a chance for the first time in generations, meaning that there will be much more opportunity for young people generally. So there are advantages for us in the coming years – but only if we work to make them happen and gain control over the developing situation. It is a lot like Katrina, the more I think about it! |
2012-04-02T21:07:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13587 |
| With you on this one completely. I also don't think that "work ethic" was invented in the West, either. But the exercise is still valid because it is very true that something worked - that is replicable and, I think, quite mutable too. | 2012-04-02T18:56:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13584 |
| I think that's the only practical way to look at it. We did get a lot of stuff from running the world, but we also got a lot of debt. Did it really pay off in the end? | 2012-04-02T18:55:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13583 |
| Pump yer fist in the air and shout "You Ess Ay!" a few times just to make sure. :-) | 2012-04-02T18:54:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/04/02/decline-fall-or-dance/#comment-13582 |
| Richard, I can't say that we have been doing the right thing. I think we've done the easy thing, in at least some way, by throwing our weight around as much as we do. Yet it would definitely be easier and certainly a lot better for our people if we took care of our own first. Most of what I write about is either our own inability to do anything we have to or how the rest of the world is in the process of leaving us behind. Yes, the two are very closely related! Projecting so much energy outward has allowed us to rot at the core - much the way Rome went down, in fact. But we are not an Empire, at least not internally, and we don't have to go that way! The end of imperialism is not such a terrible thing and we can live as one nation among many others if we just learn how to take care of our own. It's frustrating as all Hell, isn't it? |
2012-04-01T03:54:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13570 |
| All true, I think. :-) | 2012-03-30T21:01:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/30/buzzer-beater/#comment-13564 |
| I think that is true, but we'll see, eh? There was a poll which showed that the public doesn't blame Obama for the "recession", I can't find it now. | 2012-03-30T21:00:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/30/buzzer-beater/#comment-13563 |
| Excellent point! Natural gas is way down in price, too, in part because of the warm weather. In Minnesota our energy usage is about 1/3 each transport, heat, and electricity - lower methane prices affect two of those categories. I should have thought of that. Perhaps Obama should come out with a program to encourage fracking, maybe with a few new restrictions, to increase the conversion to methane and really end-route the Republicans. Just a strange thought. More on the methane economy later - I nearly wrote about it today, but need more data. |
2012-03-30T17:35:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/30/buzzer-beater/#comment-13560 |
| Excellent! I like reports like this. Should also ask my friend T to weigh in on how real estate is going. Real world cross-checks like this are very important to me, even if they are simply anecdotal. | 2012-03-30T17:32:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/30/buzzer-beater/#comment-13559 |
| I want to write about those times, I really do. But I have a lot of trouble doing it. This just doesn't seem like the place, but I can't say where is. So many stories to tell, so many things that would shock an ordinary Minnesotan. But it can't be done in a maudlin or selfish way - that would defeat the memories before they spilled out onto the 'net. I'm working on it. | 2012-03-30T04:28:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13552 |
| Menshevik, dude, you were always in the minority. :-) Besides, it was Mensch for short, and I will always stand by that part. :-) | 2012-03-29T21:16:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13550 |
| Not having been involved with their operations, I can't say for sure just how appalled I'd be with what they do if I got close enough to witness the details. To be completely honest, I'm certain that the vast majority of what they do would simply impress me if I got close to it - their organization is extremely effective and organized and I think we could learn a lot. On the other hand, we're Democrats - and naturally not inclined to simply "follow the leader". And there is this thing called "Democracy", always a loose concept in our system, where legislators are supposed to represent the people that elected them first - not some wealthy patron or even a rigid ideology. What I can say is that using ALEC as something to run against is difficult without a good story people can relate to. My first approach is to apply what I learned from Alinksy, but there are other ways. I do think that from what I've heard voters would not like ALEC if they knew about it, but getting the message out in a way that engages people is tricky. I'd like to work on it. In short, don't get mad - get even. :-) |
2012-03-29T12:58:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13546 |
| I have added an addendum to this post after further research. Blaming the death of Trayvon Martin on the "Stand Your Ground" Law is very wrong, according to the author of the bill. It would be a mistake to link this tragedy to ALEC, and not just because of the potential for further insult to the dignity of a young man taken from us far too young. See the end of the post above for more details. | 2012-03-29T04:22:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13544 |
| We have two sides in the comments here, and I appreciate what you are saying. Making politics out of Martin's death may make far more enemies than it could ever make friends. I respect that, and appreciate what you and Jim are both saying. | 2012-03-28T21:30:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13543 |
| The issue isn't really ALEC, it's the Koch Brothers. They are the personalities people can relate to. The message is that if you elect Republicans you're electing the Koch Brothers. I totally agree that ALEC is not doing anything wrong, but when people find out how much power they have and what it's used for I think there will be a good story to tell. As for using Martin's death, I do think that's tricky at best and probably should be avoided as a political issue directly. Using it as a footnote to what ALEC can do and the consequences is about all - it would be divisive, wrong, and probably not successful to lead with it. |
2012-03-28T20:09:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13541 |
| I agree, this is not sinister in and of itself. But it has been invisible for reasons that are not the fault of ALEC, and that needs to be corrected. Martin's death will be a political issue, especially if the left succeeds in going after ALEC. I included a link to my piece on "Rules for Radicals" because it is so terribly relevant - in both racial strife and the political struggle that we are in the middle of. As Alinsky advised: Pick the target - in this case, Koch Brothers freeze it - describe their work in great detail personify it - characterize the Kochs and polarize it - This is the issue that does it far better than gasoline prices, though both have their appeal. I am not yet Writing to Organize but that is where this is going. | 2012-03-28T19:28:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13539 |
| That makes sense, but I hadn't heard that before. It would be good to keep track of that, which I think many people have. This has been done very much in plain sight - it simply has been ignored. Let's see what comes out of all it. | 2012-03-28T16:36:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13537 |
| Our remarkable homeland does have a way of bringing far more tears and shame than it does pride, but we are still a people with our own strange ways. We also have stories that we need to tell, and I'm doing my best to tell them in ways that they register. The Koch Brothers are nearly perfect villains if the story is told well, but they have escaped scrutiny for decades and their stamp on Florida, among other places, is very clear. They have a long track record now and we can judge them for the terrible mess they've made of civilized society generally. Let's tell those stories and do it well so that people know. | 2012-03-28T16:34:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13536 |
| Bringing ALEC to light is a good thing, although to be fair they did not deliberately "hide" in the shadows but were simply ignored for a very long time. I simply think that it is critical that the left not fan the flames of fear and hatred no matter how we move forward on this. | 2012-03-28T16:29:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/28/murder-and-politics/#comment-13535 |
| Yes, we can only speculate here. But it's fun. :-) There is little doubt that reducing the power of public employee unions is a long-term strategy of Republicans for some very good reasons. Having been involved in a campaign I have to say that the resources unions can bring to bear, including the databases and telephoning infrastructure, is absolutely critical to running a modern campaign. There is a reason they are being targeted, no doubt. But the over-reach has cemented the relationship between all unions and public employee unions in Wisconsin, which was a terrible tactical mistake, IMHO. The sheer number of people made it clear that "an attack on one union is an attack on all". Going back to the topic at hand, I think that reducing the power and influence of public employee unions could have been done with a kind of compromise that would have been far more productive in the long run, yes. |
2012-03-27T19:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13524 |
| Oh! Yes, I agree that there is terrible evil being done here in Minnesota, all directly to the Constitution. I am with you on this. But an example of what I'm talking about is pretty well illustrated in Wisconsin. The Repubs took their narrow control of both houses and the Gov as a "mandate", a word that is truly meaningless most of the time. Since they had no interest in consensus, they thought they could do whatever they wanted. That spawned a movement among the people of the state that is rather likely to erase whatever the Republicans thought they gained. If they had sought consensus, they probably could have gone some distance towards gutting public unions and the fuss would have been minimal. They probably could have gotten much more of their way in the end. Time will tell, of course, but I think the recall effort is likely to at least change the Senate, if not the Governor. What will that get the Republicans for all the fuss and fury? So even if your plan is to do something dastardly, consensus is still the way to go, at least in the long run, IMHO. |
2012-03-27T17:13:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13522 |
| I agree with you to the extent "compromise" is just a tactic to "win" and not a way of achieving consensus. That is the way it has gone lately, and it's not good at all. If one side has no interest in consensus, or for that matter getting the actual work of the government done, then "compromise" will always be an empty gesture at best. | 2012-03-27T17:08:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13521 |
| There have been weird problems posting lately, sorry. They did get things done, quite destructive and genuinely evil, when they had both houses of Congress and the Presidency, I'll agree. But lately I don't think anyone can point to even the most basic things happening - like a budget. The Dems do tend to compromise to the extreme, it's true, but the last time Obama really gave in to them was on the debt ceiling - and nothing actually happened in the end. There was no sequestration or anything else. Nothing. There's been a lot of noise about all kinds of side issues but I don't see anything actually passing. |
2012-03-27T14:12:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13517 |
| I don't think we can get anywhere without focusing on important goals. But then again, we have a Congress that cannot pass an actual budget - we've been flying on "continuing resolutions" for 3 years now. It's very sick and they do need to be held accountable for the inability to get even the most obvious thing done. But once we have goals, and a bit of leadership, some kind of consensus will be essential. We will see how it comes. It has to come someday. |
2012-03-26T20:38:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13507 |
| A truly sad example of selfishness (and aggressive behavior) ruining something that was probably once a fun community event. Sigh. | 2012-03-26T20:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13506 |
| On google+ the problem was identified as greed, but I'll state it as selfishness. People do not seem to believe that there is a common good that can solve our problems and move ahead together. That's a social problem that is very hard to solve, but it means that many things are going to become far worse before they become better (last Friday's take on "The Coming Jobs War" shows the urgency in at least one area). So yes, it can make your head spin there are so many ways to look at it that all come back to the same place at some point. But I think that place is ultimately selfishness and/or greed. |
2012-03-26T17:31:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13502 |
| Thanks. It's more a summary of many things I've talked about in the past, but the need for it seems obvious to me. | 2012-03-26T17:29:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/26/compromise-and-consensus/#comment-13501 |
| Well, I think that the implementation is the hard part, as Clifton said about all the good ideas around. So what we really need is leadership. Not sure how we'll get that in a hurry, but perhaps we can make something happen somewhat spontaneously. | 2012-03-23T21:32:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/23/jobs-war/#comment-13474 |
| I have not read this all the way through but skimmed it and read summaries. I am getting to it. I did not see too many specifics that looked like we could implement them right away, but he does describe in detail the efforts that will be needed. I do think we have some things in place to play off of, and I'm going to start lining up those details. There is a good chance the state might have a role in some of the resources as well, especially when you look at the U of MN system. |
2012-03-23T17:08:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/23/jobs-war/#comment-13472 |
| A very good point! This is old-fashioned and in some ways a bit obvious, at least in terms of the organization that is necessary to make it happen. I think that with such a specific goal an effort like this could be put together in many cities. Shared work does make community more than anything else, and successful work even moreso. | 2012-03-23T17:06:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/23/jobs-war/#comment-13471 |
| Thanks, but this is very much what I believe is at the heart of this. 8.4% unemployment is at least 8.4% of the nation wasted - something we cannot afford. | 2012-03-23T17:03:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/23/jobs-war/#comment-13470 |
| I love how you may even be to the left of me on this! :-) But yes, oil is something so fundamental to our economy that it does cry out for regulation that keeps the number of people with their fingers in the pie to a minimum and the price as predictable as possible. I'd hate to end the futures market because when it is functioning properly it should even things out dramatically. But it appears to do the opposite most of the time with oil. If we taxed the bejaysus out of futures contracts held for, say, less than one month it might give the futures market the ability to do what it is supposed to. But I also agree that market forces are at best slow progress to renewables. Before we abandon it, however, I'd like to see more challenge grants and serious investment in new techs. That could be funded by a tax on oil at the crude stage. |
2012-03-22T21:16:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13460 |
| Yes, we will hear more of this. As much as I hate the Saud family, they are reliable lapdogs - er, partners. The price of oil will not stand, and they will sell as much as they can into it. Making a pile of dough in the process, of course. Whatever. | 2012-03-21T23:54:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13438 |
| I did find this chart of inflation adjusted gasoline prices: http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Gasoline_inflation_chart.htm We are at an all-time high by any measure. It has helped conservation, tho, so it isn't all bad. But a slow, steady climb is what would make the biggest difference without a lot of pain. I think most people expect gasoline to be expensive for a long time and are planning accordingly - which is when we make real progress. |
2012-03-21T17:31:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13428 |
| You are right - it's not about us (anymore). So maybe that 24% increase isn't enough, but I was impressed that we made serious headway towards energy independence. But yes, there will always be Alaskan oil going to Japan even as Venezuelan comes into Louisiana. I really don't know about tapping reserves, to be honest. I would like to see a smackdown, thus proving it's all speculation, for the short term. In the long term you are right that we should hold it. |
2012-03-21T17:29:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13427 |
| We are being lied to by the Republicans. I try to keep cool about election year rhetoric, but saying that oil production is going down when it has gone up 24% is pretty outrageous. I would love to know more about commodity markets. I feel that the Obama administration is planning some kind of coordinated action around the world, with both suppliers and reserves, to smack the speculators pretty hard. Robert Rubin did that against US Dollar speculators, saying "The remember real pain" - and they didn't go after the Dollar again on his watch. I'm not entirely sure about the details on Better Markets, but I'm reading up on it. Consider it my recommended reading for the day. :-) |
2012-03-21T17:27:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/21/speculation-and-certainty/#comment-13426 |
| Those coal plants are paid for, and probably have a 50+ year lifetime. I understand that new regulations are going to make many go away sooner than they would otherwise, but conversion is going to be slow with such big capital investments. At some point there's a lesson from SimCity. :-) Seriously, we converted a plant here in St Paul (the High Bridge Plant) and it's going well. Once we have the methane economy I'm sure we can start developing a lot of renewable ways of producing a big share of the energy we need, too. We'll get there, I'm sure. |
2012-03-20T03:11:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13411 |
| I'd like to make more from this stuff. The reason I went over to economic commentary is that people always seemed to like what I have to say - it's my niche. I'm far from an expert, of course, but I found a real hunger for what little I knew and have done my best to expand my knowledge and follow this stuff over the last (counts on fingers) five years. It's been fun. I am preparing scripts for some potential YouTube viddies on the subject. I don't know an artist who can make things as fun as McWilliams' "Punk Economics" but I do think some straight-up talk on the mysteries of the dismal science is in order. I'll probably take more of a James Burke (Connections) approach, so I have to be at my cheeky best. :-) My topics are just what I'm thinking about at the time. Always has been. I do try to wind unrelated things together because I have a Taoist "whole-life" view of politics, economics, and sociology. Strange things (like weather!) influence us a lot (Changes in Lattitudes, Changes in Attitudes). In the end I try to make sure it's all not really about me, since I'm not really what matters here - but it is my li'l blog and there are things I just have to get out of my head if I'm going to do other things that people pay me to do! | 2012-03-19T19:40:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13406 |
| I'm not going to say that Global Warming isn't real. But there are effects from the sun and so many other things that it is clearly complicated, at best. I've also done far too much work with IR analysis to think that CO2 is so much more important than all the water in the troposphere - in fact, the latter should have about 40x the "greenhouse" potential of CO2. However, burning so much hydrocarbon that we can see our atmosphere change is just not a good thing. That's even without the nitrous oxides and sulfur oxides that come with it - there are economic costs and so many other things. Nearly every war since WWI has had oil as a major mover of strategy and operations. It's just not a good thing! But we are in a cooling trend now and we will see just how anthropomorphic (man-made) the previous warming has been. My guess has always been half or less. |
2012-03-19T19:32:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13405 |
| Here it comes, too. But only a Midwesterner would say "We will pay for it". Well, we will. :-) | 2012-03-19T19:28:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13404 |
| Isn't it one Hell of a comparison? But you would expect that the first thing to happen in the atmosphere as we cool down is that all the water would fall out - which did indeed happen all around the world in 2011. Now, it's just chaotic. But we have to be careful taking what we experience and attributing it to a warming/cooling trend. Things are strange worldwide, and that's what we can say for sure. We also know that the sun has gone relatively dormant for the first time since the 1950s, at least. But a couple of years on a planet 6 billion years old just doesn't register as much. Big chaos to little creatures like us is just "normal" to Earth. :-) |
2012-03-19T17:23:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13400 |
| One thing I didn't get into is that we should have a mild summer, too - the relatively weak magnetic field around the earth should let in more cosmic rays, which seed more clouds. I think this will hold through the summer - but if we have strange patterns like we have now I'll bet there will be severe storms like crazy on the plains. | 2012-03-19T17:20:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13399 |
| It did turn out amazingly well, tho there was a time when I felt some tension. Gaining control by letting go - it was all very Dao. :-) | 2012-03-19T17:18:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/19/sudden-spring/#comment-13398 |
| This is an excellent question, and I did some digging to see if there was a good, clear answer. There were serious questions raised in 1974 when the nuclear program was being installed in Iran, according to a memo to the Secretary of Defense which has been declassified: “... domestic dissidents or foreign terrorists might easily be able to seize any special nuclear materials stored in Iran for use in bombs.” “...an aggressive successor to the Shah might consider nuclear weapons the final item needed to establish Iran’s complete military dominance of the region.” http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nukevault/ebb268/doc02.pdf (pdf) The answer is that at least some people prominently placed (ie, they were advising a member of the cabinet) were aware of this potential problem. So it was foreseeable. But that was an excellent question and my initial glib statement was not entirely appropriate. As for the future ramifications of the Swift cutoff, this has never been done before so we can only guess. Iran has about 7% of its GDP in imports and 10% in exports - people in both of those business are likely to face unemployment. Their major source of money, oil exports, is likely to be cut off. It has to be devastating. It will take a month or two to sink in, but this has to increase the pressure on the government dramatically. Will the people of Iran blame their government for the serious Depression that is certainly coming, or will they accept that almost certain official position that this is the result of western imperialism / meddling / aggression ? My guess is that over time it will shift, but in the long run they will blame their government. We know there are demographic forces already at work pushing for change in Iran - now take all those young people and make them unemployed. The more I think about this, the more serious it seems. This may have to head into another post. Thank you for making me think and do some research. This is the 'net at its best, and I'm proud to host this conversation! |
2012-03-17T18:55:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13386 |
| Not much, I think. North Korea isn't our fault, but I can't come up with much else that we didn't at least have a hand in creating one way or the other. That's the problem with being the biggest, baddest cop on the planet - it's all our fault, and we tend to do things up big. Yeesh. |
2012-03-16T18:19:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13370 |
| Good point. I have been slow to accept that our incredibly high military spending is useful, but I will agree that before we cut it dramatically we have to solve a few problems. If Iran is at least neutralized along with Syria I think we have a case for withdrawing and spending less. The Obama administration has done a very good job on this score and I can't help but think that Secretary of State Clinton has been very instrumental in getting us to where we need to be. | 2012-03-16T18:17:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13369 |
| The noose has been tightening slowly on Iran - apparently they have been preparing for something like this for a while. You hit the nail on the head when it comes to food imports and so on, a very wise question! They import 59B$ worth of stuff according to the CIA World Factbook, which is about 7.2% of their $819B GDP (at PPP). It's not huge. They do import $7.4B in food, which does not seem like a huge share of their total food, so I don't think this will starve them out. It does sound like enough to cause a very serious recession, however, which will increase political pressure - given that the mullahs have been tightening the screws lately that could prove explosive. A very new twist! We will see how it shakes out. |
2012-03-16T17:32:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13366 |
| Isn't it mind blowing? I read this on the BBC updates and immediately knew that it was unique - I hadn't even heard of Swift since the dust-up in 2003 or so over US terrorist-tracing. Why didn't this happen before? It seems that a strange side effect of smacking down the US ability to use Swift data indiscriminately made it clear that Swift falls under EU law - and they are complying with that. It's a sword and a shield, it seems. I agree, this is way bigger than what we could ever do with military action. I think it shows once again that $700B doesn't buy us as much as we think. |
2012-03-16T17:28:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/16/slow-swift-action/#comment-13365 |
| Business model? Oh, not, this is just a hobby. I have always used Barataria as a place where I get things out of my head that would otherwise keep my brain too occupied to do the things that make me actual money, which are writing things for other people. The ads are from wordpress, not me! I do make a little bit off of donations on Barataria, but that's it. | 2012-03-16T14:02:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13358 |
| Rossini I can drop, but "My Little Pony" really brings 'em in! Seriously though, I have thought about this subject a lot. I don't see this as a left-right political issue, at least in terms of understanding what is going on with these extra-national mega-financiers - and Goldman is at the top of anyone's list (along with Deutsche Bank, PNB Paribas, and a few others). I am very certain that there is a lot which can be written about them without even getting near solutions or politics in any way at all. That idea came to me about a year ago when I was re-reading Galbraith's "The Great Depression", where Goldman has a chapter all its own. S-s-s-same as it ever was, eh? However, there is a huge problem with doing this: I don't think anyone, anywhere, understands the world's financial system and the products sold by these companies. Even inside of them. That's at the heart off the "Fabulous Fab" boast, after all. I have never, ever known just where to start with this company and the ones like it. What I am sure is that it would get arcane and very subtle quickly. Here is what I can promise you - I will try. I will dig into this a bit, start perhaps with Galbraith and some history, and work forward as I can. I do have to make a living somehow, so as a project this can only take so much of my time, but I will do my best. |
2012-03-15T20:15:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13351 |
| I'm better in person. :-) I'm working on it. Right now all I have is me talking, no fun graphics. Not sure how to fill that gap. | 2012-03-14T21:14:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13348 |
| Yup. Let's say he made 1% off of that and his cut was 0.1%. He probably made at least $10M a year - very conservatively. That's a lot of reasons to stick around even as it starts to seem ugly. | 2012-03-14T21:12:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13347 |
| Yes, I really don't think there are any surprises here at all. But I think it's important to get the word out and confirm our worst fears - hopefully it'll spur some action and give us a good response to the people who insist that operations like Goldman are somehow good for something in the world. As for why it took him so long, see below. :-) I think it's pretty obvious. The young, aggressive "winner" hit an age where maturity set in. I'm guessing he has kids, probably rather young ones, but you never know what set it in motion. |
2012-03-14T21:09:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13346 |
| Great point. There are good people everywhere, embedded in bad situations like this. Maybe what we need more than anything else is for good people to rise up, speak from the heart, and promote more love and compassion around the world. That may sound like a lot of hippie-talk, and I'm not going to tell you it's enough by itself, but it sure wouldn't hurt. I'd also like to hear more from religious leaders on this topic as well. We have totally lost our moral compass in this nation, not just Goldman - that's what got to Smith eventually. Who is giving courage to the moral and decent people of the world to stop the behavior we see at Goldman, regardless of the money involved? |
2012-03-14T17:34:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13341 |
| I suppose a lot of lawsuits would take care of it. Perhaps there is some way of regulating them by setting up a consumer protection agency that has some real teeth. That would take a lot of activism to get anywhere near Congress, let alone passing it, however. If Smith does nothing more than fuel an uprising maybe we can make something of it. |
2012-03-14T17:31:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13340 |
| I'm sure thousands are - and all the best people, too. This can only get worse, given how nothing has changed for the better after 2008. | 2012-03-14T17:04:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13337 |
| I have no ideas how to change Goldman Sachs into a company mindful of the public good - no ideas at all. The only thing we could possibly do is reduce their influence. That sounds very difficult, but a few more stories like Greg Smith coming out and it should hit them where it counts. At least, I hope it does. The problem with Goldman is that they might do something utterly bizarre and everyone will follow them simply to avoid being left out - talk about controlling the market! | 2012-03-14T17:03:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/14/leaving-goldman/#comment-13336 |
| I think I'm up for that. A sit-down seminar would be fun - not just me, but a lot of people talking about how we got where we are today. It's not that complicated (and what's complicated is not important, eh?) | 2012-03-13T15:11:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13321 |
| I'll do my best. :-) I'll let everyone know on twitter what's up as we get our schedule together! Thanks for inviting me! | 2012-03-13T04:38:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13319 |
| I hope you are right. It is about time. | 2012-03-13T04:37:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13318 |
| It's not that the Mainstream Media is all that complicit, it's that they don't understand it themselves. That, and they think it's always boring and no one cares. We're starting to see a lot more of this, but it's tentative at best. There is demand for this kind of teaching / explaining, however, and it's growing every day, IMHO. | 2012-03-12T19:04:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13312 |
| The comment on the US was based on our having a complete union, not just a currency union. We share a lot more, so a deep recession in one part of the nation is spread out among the rest of it. It's a European perspective on the situation that really does not apply to what we have to do here and now, but it's worth noting. Socialized risk is a serious problem. It only makes sense if we become a truly socialist nation, with the reward spread out as much as the risk. There are ways of making sure the reward is spread out but still remaining a free market economy, but overall I think not socializing the risk is a far better bet. But yes, we all share benefits from a healthy banking system and so there is something to go around no matter what. It has to be on terms that make sense, however, and that's what McWilliams is trying to get across. |
2012-03-12T17:01:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13310 |
| Thanks. I am looking into it. People need to get up to speed fast if we're going to do something that benefits the whole democracy as we grope our way out of the hole. | 2012-03-12T16:57:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/12/punk-economics/#comment-13309 |
| Yes, you have it right. Everything about the US Dollar is about to change, and this is very significant. But it is probably inevitable, so having it happen gradually will give the market time to adjust - so we probably should be a part of the process. There are benefits to this as well. This is the only way that our manufacturing has a chance of competing in the world, meaning good paying jobs with a lot of growth potential for millions of people. How many? I can't say for sure, but it seems to me that manufacturing jobs at about 10% of all jobs (12% of GDP) is pretty low - Germany and Japan are about double that. It could make a very big difference. However, it does mean inflation and a lot fewer gizmos to buy. We will probably have to change how we live in many ways. Oil may become much more expensive, too, which may be a very big problem. I'm debating with @sumnums on twitter how much oil price shocks contribute to our recessions, and the short answer is that they predict them almost completely. But a slow rise in oil prices may not be as terrible, we're going over historical data on that now. Bu yes, this is HUGE and it means the end of an era for the US as the dominant economy in the world. We are about 23% of world product but influence far more than that. Dropping back to just our "rightful" quarter of the world would be a big decline - not the end of the world, but a very big deal. |
2012-03-11T21:57:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13299 |
| (I responded a few days ago, but it appears that my post was eaten - this has been happening a lot lately!) My contention is that there was no typical recovery from the official recession of 2001. Despite tremendous stimulus in the form of deficit spending and historically low interest rates the private part of the economy continued to contract and job growth never rebounded. That links it into the recession of 2007 - and once those two merge you have a long-term phenomenon that can only be called a "Depression". This recovery, too, has characteristics that are fairly unique compared to postwar downturns, also suggesting it was a very different kind of event. But history is a continuum, and I do agree that something changed significantly a long time before our current troubles. You could easily date that to the 1973-74 oil price shocks or the 1971 end of the gold standard. There are some inflections in manufacturing as a share of both GDP and jobs around 1968. When is the real inflection point? It depends what you are looking for. Taking the Fisherian view that this is all about debt cycles, you see a real inflection at 1980. I'm starting to take that as significant, but other arguments are of course very reasonable. As for oil, I do not entirely disagree with you. However, the cost of most of obtaining most of our domestic oil is pretty high, so significant capital investment assumes high prices if we are to have a decent return. There is nothing stopping some of the projects, like shale, other than the lack of some kind of guarantee from the US government - and I do not necessarily think that is wise. Our reserves of natural gas are much more plentiful, so developing systems based on methane are more likely to come in at a lower price without subsidy or guarantee from what I can see. These have the additional benefit that there are many sustainable ways to produce methane from crops, garbage, etc that could plug into such a system over the long haul. So I would say that if the Feds are going to invest in something new, methane systems have a much longer term promise. However, the point remains that we do not have an actual energy policy with long-term goals at all - a position unique among developed nations. It's rather embarrassing. If developing such a policy means a compromise that includes some more support for deepwater drilling and so on, I'm game. |
2012-03-11T15:36:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13297 |
| I suppose this could have been a small series, but it's more about the news as it comes in than anything else. There are a lot of links to provide back-up, so that's what we have to go with. I'll think about how to make a longer single narrative out of this. Perhaps as an eBook that I can sell? Dunno. |
2012-03-10T05:51:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13288 |
| On this point we agree completely! So how do we make it so with the least pain, both for us and the rest of the world? I think that's one of the top questions we should be asking in this election - up there with "How do we restructure to the next economy?" | 2012-03-09T19:06:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13281 |
| I think you are right - people know this is in their guts, not their heads. But to quote Pat Buchanan we are "A Republic, not an Empire". If we go back to doing what we do best, which is pretty clearly *not* running the world, we will actually be better off in many ways that we don't understand now. I've been convinced by a number of you readers that there is a lot to put into place before we can really pull back, especially militarily. But it will have to happen someday, and the sooner we get things in place so that we can do it the better we'll be able to manage it all. I would love to get my message out more, yes. I'd love to have radio gigs. But sadly this has not come to pass. I think that our legacy media is not yet ready for this message - even though, as you say, most people already "get it". |
2012-03-09T19:04:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13280 |
| Thanks. This is a dense topic and I did include a lot of links with more explanation on the various topics. This does all link together because we are about to get what we've long wanted out of China - a free floating RMB/Yuan - but we are totally unprepared for what that means. There are massive policy implications no matter what, but the bottom line for most people who don't pay attention (nearly everyone) is that consumer goods will have to become more expensive. Laptops, telephones, TVs, all that stuff - there will be inflation in those items over the next 10 years. It may be offset by productivity improvements and other cost reductions, but we should never count on that. Part of the reason I tend to go on my "buy less" rants is that the less we rely on this crap the less of a hit we will take when all this goes down. |
2012-03-09T17:23:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/09/brics-n-china-shop/#comment-13277 |
| The "gotcha" here is more from small, social media. It's only important in that it is bound to fire people up like crazy - especially if there is one more event like this. The debt is a very big story, since it's very big debt. Stockman is right that this will limit our ability to grow, which is how we've tackled debt at every other spike on that curve - we grew our way out of it. Very low (heck, even negative?) interest rates are clearly helping us manage it, but it still has to end badly at some point. I agree, figuring out how we will grow our way out of this is very much the key. We have to restructure and transform our economy one way or the other to make that happen. There are some very nasty things on the horizon for the US Dollar that I may write about on Friday, so this could get much more ugly in the medium term. In the short run, however, we do have job growth ahead of what we'd expect for an economy growing at a rate less than 3.3% annually. That's something. It may prove to not be sustainable for this very reason, but it will help. |
2012-03-08T17:13:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13262 |
| Thanks Matt! I avoid the term "Classical" music because it is far too loaded. Besides, I like all kinds of old stuff, including folk music that never made it to the highbrow. So I tend to use the tern "antique" instead. But there are pieces of music that are simply part of our culture, for better or worse. That's true just as there are stories, statues, architectural forms, and so on that make up our common currency. People do need to know 'em all one way or the other. If Bugs Bunny makes it happen, well, good for Bugs! :-) |
2012-03-08T00:28:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13258 |
| Thanks. It's always best to be as up-front as possible with this stuff and confront them directly when we can. | 2012-03-08T00:24:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13257 |
| But at least some of the interesting things are positive. Jobs are good! | 2012-03-08T00:22:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13256 |
| I was a bit slow to accept it, too, but I'm sure it's real. The BLS might be able to fake unemployment rates, but I doubt ADP can be bought off. The numbers are there every month and growing. I agree - this election is over if all this continues. But that's why I put the little blurb about Greece at the end - there are still things out there to mess it all up before November. Read the interview with Stockman if you want a longer list of potential problems. Yeesh! |
2012-03-07T20:03:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13252 |
| Just image every household in the US with not just a liberal voter, but a liberal activist. That's what is at stake by really pissing off women. It is a game changers. Then, consider for a moment the generation gap that every mother feels with her daughter - things have changed so rapidly that women under about 30 really don't know what it was like for their parents. Now, they do. The Republicans are about to lose a generation of women forever if they keep this up. One more issue that demonstrates the need and the value of activism and it is all over for them - for a long time to come. You are very, very much not alone. And I'm pretty sure you know it, too. |
2012-03-07T20:02:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13251 |
| I am sure you are not alone, too. Consider that about 60% of all voters are women. Tick off north of 80% of them, and the election is just plain over - up and down the ticket. | 2012-03-07T18:29:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/07/catching-up-2/#comment-13248 |
| I would understand it if we wound up with a compromise like a "Civil Union" and kept talking about what comes next. The problem with the amendment is that it closes the door for a long time on real equality. This is obviously a controversial issue and it should be worked out in the open - with love and respect. I'm starting to re-think labeling the opposition as "hate" because I've gotten some tweets and mail from people who are simply unsure right now - not hateful, just not ready to break with tradition. Labeling them "hateful" isn't going to help anything, I think. There is indeed a lot of hate out there, but it isn't everyone's problem. | 2012-03-06T15:37:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13232 |
| Thank you! Yes, we fight hate with love and we win. We talk openly about family and never dodge the issue - because it is what matters! We are not a bunch of theoretical policy wonks and holdover teenagers demanding rights, we are loving adults who want everyone to have the same opportunities. It does change everything when it's done properly! Thanks again, great article. | 2012-03-05T18:32:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13222 |
| I hope that is the case. It's likely true here. | 2012-03-05T18:30:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13220 |
| Glen - good to see ya, hope there is more in Barataria for you! You understand my reasoning and planned role very well. Fear and hype is the enemy of true progress, so we can't be too hopped up in that if we want to do something good in the world. Most Minnesotans want to be decent, loving people, I'm sure, and we should appeal to to them directly. That's my role, at least. The nastiness and fear will come, but until then we have to give reasonable people something to think about and talk about with their families and friends. Every little bit counts! Thanks for weighing in, the discussion in the comments are what make Barataria more than just my little blog! |
2012-03-05T14:24:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13215 |
| Thanks. We all have our roles to play here, and I think mine is to appeal to those in the reasonable middle who might be susceptible to careful and apparently reasonable arguments. The one I found on their site was simply not relevant and people who are reasonable need to know why. | 2012-03-05T14:19:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13214 |
| Thanks. We have to match hate with love where we can, though. That's what I am trying to do here. | 2012-03-05T14:18:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13213 |
| Thank you, that is exactly what I think needs to be done. I wanted to be sure that someone, somewhere, addressed the issue of children before this argument got anywhere at all. There are people with legitimate concerns that are susceptible to arguments like these - someone has to address it directly and quickly. It is simply a BS argument, yes. But we have to remember that our family, friends, neighbors, and co-workers are the ones who might be thinking about things like this as they consider the issue. After November, we have to continue to live and work together. Whatever we can do to bat down arguments like this respectfully and quickly the better, IMHO. |
2012-03-05T03:48:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13207 |
| There are many ways to look at this issue. I tend to favor the argument put forward by Sen. John Marty, a Lutheran Pastor. He has advanced the idea that the government probably should not be telling any faith how to define "marriage" at all, and should simply junk the entire term as a legal definition altogether. I favor that separation of church and state, especially given that many faiths now perform same-sex marriages. For the purpose of this article, however, I wanted to refute the assertion of the pro-amendment coalition that this has anything to do with children. It does not. That attempt to re-define this amendment has to be cut down before it gets any traction at all because it is ridiculous. |
2012-03-05T03:44:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/05/minnesota-for-marriage-simply-wrong/#comment-13206 |
| An excellent article by David Frum in Newsweek - "Why Rush is Wrong". The whole article is worth reading, but I especially like this at the bottom of page 2 to the top of 3: "The conservatism we know evolved in the 1970s to meet a very specific set of dangers and challenges: inflation, slow growth, energy shortages, unemployment, rising welfare dependency. In every one of those problems, big government was the direct and immediate culprit. Roll back government, and you solved the problem. Government is implicated in many of today's top domestic concerns as well … But the connection between big government and today's most pressing problems is not as close or as pressing as it was 27 years ago. So, unsurprisingly, the anti-big-government message does not mobilize the public the way it once did. Of course, we can keep repeating our old lines all the same, just the way Tip O'Neill kept exhorting the American middle class to show more gratitude to the New Deal." |
2012-03-04T04:03:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13185 |
| I think you are right. That might be why Barataria's traffic has been increasing dramatically lately, too. There seems to be a hunger for substantive discussion of complex issues and fresh perspectives that the regular press is just starting to catch up on. More is always better, so we have to encourage everything we can! | 2012-03-03T20:06:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13173 |
| I think that the Koch Brothers are in for a lot of publicity they'd rather not have this year. I've always been one to exercise caution going after them in the past, but I think the background has been laid for a big surge forward in demonizing them. Raising the issue of gas prices is kind of like lighting a big stogie while filling your tank. :-) | 2012-03-02T21:43:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13159 |
| I think you are right that Ford has a gap in its product line, which makes the closing of the Highland Park Plant here in St Paul seem even stranger. Then again, Ford has been in great shape as car companies go, so they seem to know what they are doing. I can sound like Tom & Ray Magliozzi (sp?) all the time if you let me (especially Tom, sadly). | 2012-03-02T21:42:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13158 |
| Interesting take, and I did forget about the recall election. The Koch Brothers have been quite prominent in Wisconsin, which has always puzzled me. I wonder how much of that has sunk in to the consciousness of the general public, however. They make a great bogeyman IF they are "flushed out" and visible. That's a big IF to me, however. People have to feel it for it to work. But as Alinsky said, "Pick the target, freeze it, personify it". They are the personification of the target if it can be made to stick. Nice ending on the Republican Party. I do wish we had the "old" party back - the one that could make a deal and actually govern. I know there are many people in the party who agree with this - but don't know what to do about it. Good luck if you're willing to be one of them. I mean it. |
2012-03-02T19:28:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13155 |
| That is what I was thinking here, yes. I tend to put it a bit differently, is all. :-) | 2012-03-02T19:25:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13154 |
| OK, you've convinced me - I'll think more about petroleum and what it means to the world. There are dozens of sub-topics and y'ins (y'all?) are hitting many of them in the comments. But no, people don't blame our government for this - or apparently expect it to solve the problem. That does seem good. |
2012-03-02T19:24:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13153 |
| Thanks. China, Malaysia, Indonesia, India ... the whole developing world are using more all the time. That's why Brasil's energy independence is so important for them - it guarantees economic growth no matter what happens around the world. But I do agree that things are going well if a bit painful - a good way of putting the problem. Its like a scar that is healing, but very itchy all the time. :-) | 2012-03-02T19:22:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13152 |
| Thanks! This is a very complex issue that I decided to write about from a narrow perspective - and it still ran long! You're right that fracking is at best controversial and in need of a lot more research and probably regulation - but that is mainly for natural gas, which I generally support tapping more. I covered that in another post. There is a lot of value in switching to a methane based economy, rather than petroleum, because it sets up systems that alternative fuels can "plug into" as they come along in many cases. As for fuel economy, it has been going up dramatically lately, which is a great sign (link to Bureau of Transportation Studies). I guess I should have included that link in the post itself. But this is very good news all around. | 2012-03-02T16:47:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13146 |
| I agree, over the long haul people have come to understand that it's only going to go up and we need alternatives. I worked in an alternative fuel program for a while, trying to make a burnable liquid from corn stalks. There is a lot of research that needs to be done in these areas, and we're just scratching the surface of what can be done. Meanwhile, the free market is working pretty darned well at raising the price slowly, so we can get off the stuff. There is always hope! | 2012-03-02T16:13:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/03/02/gasoline-an-explosive-issue/#comment-13144 |
| Thank you! A good piece with a lot of detail. For the record, my "save Derpy" opinion is based entirely on the notion that once the episode was put out there it should not be changed - even if a big mistake was made. That makes it harder to deal with the issue, but it will be more fulfilling in the end. In a big family, like the Bronies, you can never erase what you said that was hurtful but you can apologize and make it better. If the community is really what counts to MLP (and it should be!) they have to understand this, IMHO. | 2012-03-02T16:02:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13142 |
| What I think is the biggest mistake here is how it was handled. If they are sure they made a mistake, going back and "erasing" it does say what you fear, I would argue. And that is wrong. This is an important social issue that everyone encounters eventually. It is worth an episode to clarify what to do about it - with patience, tolerance, and love. Very few of us get this "right" the first time we encounter it, but with practice and good examples we can all learn. It's all about being a truly good person, which is what I thought the show was about as well. |
2012-03-01T13:56:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13123 |
| It's all about the effort! :-) This reminds me, I've long thought about compiling a list of "classics" that everyone should know. The pieces that just show up everywhere - in ads, movie music, etc. Some of them are not technically "classical", like Funiculi, Funicula (the bouncy piece always used to sell a new Italian sandwich) but are really kind of folk pieces. Whatever. There's a short list of 20 to maybe 50 that everyone should be at least familiar with if you want to know the popular classics. I doubt I can put it together myself, but with help from the 'net I'll bet one can be assembled. |
2012-03-01T13:52:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13122 |
| I just saw it! He's finally getting the respect he deserves, I guess. What a hoot! | 2012-02-29T18:03:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13118 |
| Thanks! I only get this chance once every 4 years so I had to take it. :-) | 2012-02-29T18:02:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13117 |
| I do my best to make history fun! :-) You just have to find fun people to talk about - like Rossini! | 2012-02-29T18:02:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/29/53-counting-slowly/#comment-13116 |
| Thank you for the alternative viewpoint. I knew there had to be a few. As I said before, people who are a bit different in this way have been "protected" for centuries. The words that were used to describe them have had to be revisited every generation or so because they became hurtful. People like that never do well when singled out, either in language or in pointed fingers or in stares - or even glances away from them. This simply had to happen with "My Little Pony" someday. It had to. Life always comes at us with difficult and embarrassing things that we as individuals are just not sure how to deal with - and as a society or group usually fall down even harder. It's not people or ponies like Derpy that are the problem, it's "the normals". We're the ones who can't deal with it properly. Now, I'm very much not a Rainbow Dash fan. OK, I really dislike the character (I'm a Rarity guy, I admit). But her response to Derpy's problems was completely typical. It was natural and the kind of situation that people find themselves in all the time. The whole episode was a learning experience. And they punted on it. That was the real shame. The Herd will get through this. Hasbro will get over it. Lauren Faust and team will think their way through and come up with something that they should have in the first place. It will be better. It's a lot like life. But for now, it was handled very badly - just as it usually is in real life. We'll see how it goes from here! Thank you again, I do appreciate your heartfelt statements. If you think it was hurtful, it was. That has to be recognized. |
2012-02-29T04:08:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13104 |
| I think I've been corrected (and very politely, too!) - Bronies, or fans of the show, are not just kids by any stretch. And why people love the show is inspiring in itself. More on this later on in the comments, but thank you for correcting me. I hate being wrong enough to get myself over to the right side as quickly as possible. :-) | 2012-02-28T19:29:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13093 |
| Wow, thank you! The Bronies I know are all kids, so I suppose my opinion was simply wrong. I can see why adults like the show, since I do as well. Good animation is simply good - take Miyazaki, for example! It does tie us back to a time when anything was possible and a simple sunrise was a reason for excitement. That joy should be part of everyone's life. As for Derpy, well, it was inevitable that something controversial in life would bleed over to the show in an uncontrollable way. Look at how terribly they are handled in our politics (the art and science of human interaction as well as the operating system of a Democratic-Republic). What would the controlling interest, in this case Hasbro, do? They reacted as any ... well, reactionary would. There are huge lessons in here, beyond the difficult subject of mentally challenged and/or simply different people. You guys are great, keep it up! It's more than a show, it's a community of love and joy and connection to the world that was and always is possible. |
2012-02-28T18:52:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13090 |
| Thank you! I do have to confess that I love the show, too, because it is a great antidote to the hate and selfishness that seems to define our world. The story of the show and its interaction is very unique and needs to be told - in a lot more than the 800 words I give to an essay here. You fans are a big part of the story. | 2012-02-28T18:45:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13089 |
| Thanks, Gini. There is considerable evidence (well, gossip) that the team had a plan in place but were over-ruled by upper management at the channel. There is probably a lot more to this story that won't come out for a bit. Also, the fan pages are ... well, a bit dense with stuff and really hard to wade through (this is a show with a lot of teen appeal!) so finding good info is especially hard. But the story of "My Little Pony" was very interesting even before this controversy because I can't think of any other show that has turned itself over so completely to the fans. The potential abrogation of copyrights alone is a fascinating topic, worthy of lengthy interviews with the staff to find out how they got to that point! | 2012-02-27T19:34:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13082 |
| This is great! Maybe we can spread a little more joy in the world through this controversy. Something good should come of everything, right? The only thing I'd add is that "My Little Pony" feels like SciFi or Fantasy sometimes, in that it uses an alternative (and complete) world to deal with issues that are harder to deal with in real life. That's why the big punt on Derpy seems so strange - this was obviously another teaching moment, but it was apparently too much for the higher-ups. Fandom clearly has a lot of cross-over with SciFi for his reason. There are times when I think about what Star Trek meant to my generation - that we would somehow survive this era and go on to be a peaceful people - and realize that while the lessons in "My Little Pony" are much simpler they resonate even stronger. And then there are all the fan written stories (fan-fic) that mark a SciFi series, too. Another thing I didn't mention - The Hub is a joint venture of the Discovery Channel's parent and Hasbro, and they are re-evaluating it right now. "My Little Pony" is their only big hit, and as you can see it came at some hefty cost (ie, potential loss of copyrights). They are probably very controversy-adverse right now and came down on the staff with a big hammer. |
2012-02-27T17:34:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13080 |
| Thank you! I was very much hoping some of the fans would chime in here, because you are very much the real story here. I think you are very right - the story was accepting Derpy for who she is, regardless of any supposed "defects". Bronies are kids (mainly kids, at least!) who are very much rejecting the hate and fear that defines so much of our society these days - and that is one other part of this whole experience that I simply had to leave out in the name of a good introductory story. There is a lot to say on this topic, and I find it terrible that it was handled so badly. What started out as a new way to sell stuff is now a cultural phenom that challenges the Way Things Are(tm). This was, and is, a teaching moment that might redefine a lot more than the interaction between teevee and social media. Breaking down the fourth wall forever could bring people together in ways that they have never come together before. Thank you, again. You guys are great, and I appreciate your loving and upbeat attitude. It's a great antidote to the hate that is far too common in this world! |
2012-02-27T16:10:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13076 |
| This is a detail I had to leave out of the original post for the sake of Unity. I'll discuss it here. The term "Derpy" means "awkward or embarrassing". It does not necessarily mean mentally challenged. But it was taken that way by some people, apparently. Protecting people like this has a long history and is far from new or "PC". 200 years ago the term "chretien" was used for mentally challenged people in France, arguing that they were "Christians" like anyone else - this became "cretin" in English. When that was used offensively, it was suggested 100 years ago that the word "moron" be used, after a French pantomime clown. That also became offensive, and so by the 1950s "retarded" took over. Now that is offensive as well, so "mentally challenged" is the correct term. What matters is that there is a long history of protecting people who are not like others, creating the need to change the language away from terms that have become offensive over time. I do not think this is the central issue here - giving this show over to fans was bound to find its way to a controversial subject eventually. What matters is how it is handled (so far, rather badly) and what that means to the interaction that has made the phenom so far. "My Little Pony" is a huge experiment that could well redefine teevee as we know it. There is a lot more to be said about Hasbro creating its own cable channel in the first place, along with the YouTube use of their work. This is a fascinating and deep subject that was bound to hit social boundaries. |
2012-02-27T16:03:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13075 |
| Yes, it is. My teenage daughter is a "Bronie" and introduced me to this. It is a well written show, and it is very much a new approach to television as we know it. The merchandising is clearly worth more to them than the traditional revenues, or at least they are trying the experiment out. | 2012-02-27T15:51:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/27/controversial-little-pony/#comment-13073 |
| Great article, thanks. Turkey is more than a bit enigmatic - it's totally unclear to anyone, including them, as to whether their future is more to the east or the west. Naturally, they are at the crossroads of the world and need to capitalize on that, but the tensions have been so strong that Turkey winds up more on the margins than the middle. That's just sad. Turkey in the EU? If Greece keeps screwing up, arguments based on Cyprus for keeping Turkey out won't have as much pull. We really do live in interesting times, eh? :-) This is all stuff I haven't really thought out yet, so I'm as interested in people sending me good articles to read as anything else. Thanks! |
2012-02-25T17:46:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13064 |
| Good list, thanks! I like sharing links in the comments, especially to articles / blog entries that are useful. We are in a prolonged "bubble" economy, and unwinding all the garbage we've integrated is going to take forever. A whole lot of regulation is probably needed just to move things forward, IMHO. At least one Hell of a lot more disclosure is necessary, if nothing else. |
2012-02-24T21:56:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13059 |
| Exactly. I would love cut Defense dramatically, but I realize that it's dangerous right now. A foreign policy that builds coalitions against dictatorships and rids the world of the most onerous would get us to the point where we can do that without qualm. That has to be a goal, IMHO - and I think it is one internally. Iran has some bizarre internal pressure that are coming out in weird ways. There has been a crackdown by the hardliners - obviously, they thought they had to, but why? They also make the most noise about their nuclear program when they need a diversion, so we have that going on. I expect that there is a lot more fermenting below the surface in Iran than we know. They are acting up in strange ways. Assad's likely downfall has to have 'em spooked, too. India and Pakistan .... yeesh. Obama wants to really cozy up to India, which probably makes sense in the long term (esp. as a front against China) but what on earth can be done about Pakistan? I think I agree that some presence in Afghanistan is going to go on forever, but it would be nice to make it more UN or Arab League stewardship. If the Arab Spring revolts continue we should have more allies in the area - less reliable, democratic ones that are at least better capable of handling their own region. al Jezeera is probably the most important force for real change in the world right now, IMHO. They are just amazing. |
2012-02-24T21:53:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13058 |
| I won't argue with you on what "Our problem" is, but if we are to support our allies in the region it does become something we can and should help with. But yes, the main point is that Assad has to go, and I think the world sees that. I would love an Israeli view of this, but what I've read so far has been pretty cagey as they don't want to even appear to be involved. | 2012-02-24T20:09:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13055 |
| I think we can do what we need to with far fewer troops and less forward deployment - IF something happens to take Syria and Iran out of the picture. At that point, the actual threat will not be obvious, so where would we deploy anyway? Our military will have to become smaller and more efficient, and this could make it all possible. Keep in mind that even if we slice our spending in half we'd still command the largest military in the world by far, spending 25% of global military expenses. And we'd save $350 Billion a year. Our economic security is by far our most critical strength and we cannot compromise it. Our expenses on military is pretty far out of line right now and a serious impediment to ever balancing the budget. But I'm OK with waiting until we let this play out. I'm happy that we're not just sending in the Marines for once and really building coalitions to get things done. Libya was good, Syria could be next. After that, yes, North Korea has to come into play. But no, we should not withdraw from the world - just seek a better balance. |
2012-02-24T20:06:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13054 |
| Thanks. I'm learning along with everyone else as this progresses. I think we won't go anything alone anymore, which give me great hope. | 2012-02-24T20:00:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13053 |
| I really don't know much about Libya! Syria has a rich history with quite a bit of water here and there, but I think it's had a growing population that was badly outstripping what they have. I'm trying to get up to speed on this situation quickly because I really don't know a lot, other than old history, but I do know that this has the potential to change just about everything. And it's a horror that no one has been able to stop so far. | 2012-02-24T18:42:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13049 |
| I think something did change because Western journalists seem to be getting in. That's only been since this became more of a civil war, with some territory not well controlled by the government. I can't imagine any leader, dictator or otherwise, shelling his own people like this either. This is way beyond anything we've seen in a long time, short of Saddam Hussein. |
2012-02-24T18:40:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13048 |
| Thanks, both of you! I really do believe this. I think the difference lately has been Secretary Clinton - apparently, she has done a fabulous job. We haven't gotten into any new wars or other actions without an awful lot of backing. | 2012-02-24T18:38:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13047 |
| Thanks. There are a lot of links that have more information - al Jezeera has been on this like no one in the West, possibly because they have more people in there. I really don't have much to add to them at this point, but I'm thinking this one through as we get more info. | 2012-02-24T18:36:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/24/new-world-not-ordered/#comment-13046 |
| Yes, the asset price bubble and the credit bubble are very much one in the same. It all really started in the 1990s and moved on to spec housing. But it was all closely tied together. Our military spending is crippling us, and there has to be a way to cut back without leaving the whole planet rudderless. But we spend such a large share of GDP on military (4.8% compared to the world average 2.6%) that we are at a distinct disadvantage: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures I think it was about the same during the Cold War, but something tells me it's been creeping up lately. |
2012-02-23T01:15:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13024 |
| No one was really paying attention that had any influence or ability to get the word out in the mass media, no. This is news to me, too. As you know I've been looking for articles on debt cycles for a while so it's taken me time to find this. I had to look. | 2012-02-22T22:01:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13021 |
| Ha! I have been on a bit of a tear lately. But it's true. As for the kids chasing the shiny and new, well, a lot of adults do it, too. Though I wonder about them a bit more. :-) |
2012-02-22T20:07:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13019 |
| I don't think it was deliberate, but yes, the effect is one of slavery to debt. It makes "recovery" very difficult, if not impossible. | 2012-02-22T20:05:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13018 |
| It is amazing, isn't it? History explains much of what is going on. Taking a straight line between our past and today and projecting it out into the future is not a perfect predictor - but it is all we have. This explains the dynamics we are dealing with very well. 1980 is indeed a major inflection in many ways. It's not all Reagan - there is the rise of consumer credit, globalism, and many other forces that converge at that time. I do think that Reagan did some things well and some things poorly in the economy - but there was an attitude change that sunk in which generally got us to where we are today (in deep doo-doo economics, to paraphrase George HW Bush!). Optimistic? I try. :-) One thing about cycle analysis is that there are good times and bad. To everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under Heaven! :-) |
2012-02-22T17:59:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13014 |
| Thanks! The Mainstream Media doesn't really have the talent in place to understand this kind of thing, much less spend the amount of time it takes to lay it out in a form that people can digest. It is a complex subject. Without Hunt I would have never seen this, either, so time spent reading people like Mauldin (who is, sadly, far off the beaten path) is essential. I would like to have work in this area (hint!) but I have yet to find anyone who will pay me to interpret complex subjects in a form that can be read by many people. But it is what I enjoy and think I do best. |
2012-02-22T17:55:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/22/owe-the-future-owe-the-past/#comment-13013 |
| Sorry, Dan, I made it up entirely. Don't tell me I just sold a fake pastry shop with a Hero's Journey tale, now ... :-) | 2012-02-20T22:32:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12970 |
| Ha! Yes, it can easily become over-blown and way too much. But this is how you do it. I should take on the fairy tale next - that's not used as much in advertising. :-) | 2012-02-20T22:31:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12969 |
| What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. Ecclesiastes (The Song of Solomon) 1:9 (NIV) Who am I to argue with Solomon? :-) Seriously, that is part of my point. People who do not learn from history will simply re-invent the wheel - probably in an inferior form, too. As for candidates, part of me wants to say that selling them is just like selling pastry, at least in this example. The main difference is that for a candidate you have to do more than sell, you have to build enthusiasm. It's the same except that for a candidate you have to be more personal, more intense, and more more. People would never believe in a Danish, but they need to believe in the woman up on the platform who will represent them. |
2012-02-20T18:27:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12965 |
| Thanks. But it is true - the more culturally well known a form is, the easier it is to use it to slip a message into someone's subconscious. I think you are right, the pastries are not from Denmark. Oh well. I should have done my research a bit better. :-) |
2012-02-20T18:23:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12964 |
| Well, if you had a blog you would probably spin this out over several posts, perhaps at least 8 - one expounding on each tidbit. Or, my fave, you could have a really short bio with more detail linked in for each part of the story. There are many ways to tell it - but the basic story is as old as humans themselves. It's important to know how it is structured if you're going to use it to maximum effect - or put a twist or two in. | 2012-02-20T04:44:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12950 |
| Oh, no, it should never be applied as a formula! But this ancient example can be a very useful guide to help organize a story in a way that is familiar to the reader right away. Joseph Campbell called it "The Hero of a Thousand Faces" because the form is flexible enough to be used to tell many quests, over and over again. Done well it is always fresh! | 2012-02-20T02:47:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/20/heros-journey-with-pastry/#comment-12948 |
| Yes on all counts - this is a generational change, so by definition it will take time (and a fair amount of pain). What concerns me is that the next generation really does not have an implementable agenda - but I'm being challenged right now with some examples that almost add up to one, so it's not as bad as I thought. However, they still have a long way to go before they can issue specific, achievable demands to the previous generation and really move things along the way they need to! It is sad to me how tired the old generation has become, however. Much of what they achieved has been under assault for a long time (including contraception? Yeesh!) so they are very much in a siege mentality. That makes them naturally conservative (small "c") as they fight to preserve things the way they are in the face of the reactionary counter-charge. It cannot be called "progress" - and in the face of a rapidly changing world progress is not a luxury, but a necessity if we are to simply hold even in the long run. |
2012-02-17T21:24:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12904 |
| I was thinking about Carter - and also Woodrow Wilson. They are the times when the Democrats did seize on Republican mistakes but were not able to really capitalize on them. It's a possibly more interesting topic, but it didn't seem as relevant to this election. We will see, won't we? The left seems to me to be irrelevant because it has not controlled the national dialogue or agenda in a very long time. That may change if there is a strong movement, but I can't see it changing in 2012. I may be wrong - people may be able to organize much more quickly - but without leadership much stronger than we have now I can't see really crystallizing. Dayton is not a liberal, no. Neither is Obama. Nor Reid, nor really Pelosi. So what are they? I dunno. They don't articulate an agenda that adds up to any consistent political philosophy - and don't really try. Back to the Pragmatic Party? http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/24/the-pragmatic-party/ (a piece originally from 1999) |
2012-02-17T18:50:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12899 |
| I was really hoping someone would say, "Being Not-Republican is good enough!" I hope that's a good summary. :-) | 2012-02-17T18:44:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12898 |
| I think you are speaking for a lot of people. Thanks. Once you've been a Democrat for a while, though, you get used to it being mushy. :-) |
2012-02-17T18:43:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12897 |
| There is a link up there to a piece on the future of the Democrats: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/ I stand by some of the musings in that piece, even though there isn't a strong conclusion. The Democrats have to be the party that gets things done because, at its core, it centers on government as a counter-balance to economic forces when they become destructive - government has to work for people to believe in it and keep voting Democrat. What that winds up meaning is up for discussion, sure, but some of this goes far beyond ideology. |
2012-02-17T18:42:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12896 |
| There's going to be a lot of that. People not showing up often defines our system better than those who do show up. | 2012-02-17T18:37:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12895 |
| Occupy groups have a vision, but they refuse to have an agenda. It's very hard to get something done when you haven't articulated what that is. The lack of leadership is also going to be a big problem when it comes to implementing anything. That doesn't mean that the movement doesn't serve a purpose - but it is very limited and some other group has to take up the slack and make things happen. That should be the Democrats. Will they take the vision and turn it into an agenda to implement? So far ... not so good. |
2012-02-17T18:36:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/17/democrats-on-the-sideline/#comment-12894 |
| Pay, thank you! I was trying to remember her campaign story, but I couldn't find it anywhere. I remembered something sorta like that as well, so maybe we aren't nuts, unlike .... well, let's not go there. :-) But I do think that the Hero's Journey as we know it does work well for women because it calls them to break out of their pre-assigned role and assume a leadership. It also describes why they are qualified - unique knowledge or inspiration or even guidance from a higher calling. I want to write a lot more about this but have very few examples. It did work for Joan of Arc, we can say that much. |
2012-02-16T13:56:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12859 |
| That could count, yes, but it would have to be developed more. I don't know anyone who knew who George Romney was who doesn't speak highly of him, so Dad is a big plus for Mitt. We hardly ever hear of the guy, however. | 2012-02-16T13:53:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12858 |
| There is a nearly infinite list! I also left out my own novel, Downriver - which is a Hero's Journey used to teach concepts from the Dao De Jing. | 2012-02-15T22:33:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12843 |
| It's more than standard - it's probably the oldest archetype in storytelling and certainly the most common. That's what gives it a lot of power - not the newness, but the familiarity that can only come from being truly classic. I'm using the concept very broadly here, but the advice to those who want to use the archetype is the same all around - get to know it before you modify it! |
2012-02-15T18:30:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12838 |
| Yes on women (see below). The candidates now do not have this, and Obama should re-invent his quest as an ongoing one - I'll get into that later. But he can't really ditch his "Chosen One" routine very easily because it would alienate those who got him into office. I think he can change it, however. Gingrich probably missed out on a neat Hero's Journey more than anyone else. For him to take that up he would have had to explain his disgrace at leaving the Speakership behind, which he should have done anyway. Putting it into a context - "I screwed up, and spent the next decade in the woods understanding my error" would have made him very powerful along with "I am now back to lead with the great knowledge I have learned to renew the cause again!". Just my few cents worth. |
2012-02-15T17:45:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12835 |
| Sheryl, I wish I had a lot more to say as well. There is a "Heroine's Journey" archetype, but it's not as strong and not very modern, really. However, I think the Hero's Journey archetype is not particularly gender-specific, at least in modern terms, and is something that women could adopt more. | 2012-02-15T17:41:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12834 |
| Yes, the Horatio Alger is a derivative of the Hero's Journey, filtered through Benjamen Franklin's autobiography. It is uniquely American for many reasons. Divine interference / inspiration can sometimes be simple magic (Harry Potter). Col. Sanders' "Secret Formula" is stressed to this day because it hints at that strongly - try saying "formula" without an image of "magic formula" attached to it. But this is a difficult concept in the modern world - even in "Star Wars" Lucas felt compelled to explain The Force away as a bunch of bacteria-like things called midichlorian. So that is often the first thing to go when adapting the Hero's Journey to a modern audience. |
2012-02-15T17:40:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/15/the-heros-pitch/#comment-12833 |
| I think it's only fair that I take a look at the Democrats right now, because the situation is almost the exact opposite. But that does not mean victory is in the works by any stretch - the coalition has to hold. Coalitions are hard to develop the energy necessary to get people to show up, the most important part of this. Downballot, what will happen? Hard to say. | 2012-02-14T19:22:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12806 |
| And it's up to Democrats who think that there is something seriously wrong with those who vote Republican consistently to explain themselves much better - and to be better. We're the ones who want to make the case that government can work, so we have to do it. A competitive system should make us all stronger, and I value good competition. I just hate losing so danged much. :-) And yes, I'm the first person in my family to call himself anything other than a Republican as far back as any of us know. We have fun political discussion, you know it. :-) |
2012-02-14T04:33:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12791 |
| You guys are all reminding me that we live in a time of great change, so a certain degree of chaos is to be expected. So ... here it is! "May we all live in interesting times". Is Obama ready to actually do something? I hope so. Larry Summers is long gone, so perhaps someone with some real bottom can get in there and talk about stuff like Restructuring and all the rest of the stuff we talk about here in Barataria! |
2012-02-13T22:11:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12784 |
| Excellent points all around. I think this nation is generally more diverse than it has been since WWII at least, but I'm not sure about that. So the idea that the Democrats are a big huge coalition is not surprising, nor is the fact that the Republican one was doomed to become more ... well, like the Democrats. But yes, this is not the first change in the parties in your lifetime (and mine, sort of, but I was a kid for most of that) so some "creative destruction" is likely to happen. Mitt Romney says it is a good thing, too! Oh, wait, that was when he was referring to other people's jobs. :-) Good post dressed up as a comment, tho. :-) |
2012-02-13T22:07:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12781 |
| Hey, the first hurdle I always have for Republicans is, "Can I imagine votoing for him/her?" In the case of McCain, the answer was solidly "Yes". I actually read his book, too - pretty interesting. This year, the only Republican I could say that for was Huntsman (actually, I could see voting for him over Obama even - but don't tell anyone!). good point on the Rainbow Coalition - it is kind of what we are. I still want more intellectual bottom to it, tho. In the end, we do have to stand for something pretty straightforward and easily described, IMHO. |
2012-02-13T22:02:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12780 |
| I have been a fan of Buddy Roehmer back when he was a Democrat. I have a Mardi Gras coin from when he became governor (88?). Great guy, deserves at least a hearing - got bupkiss. We do need real Republicans and a real Republican party. We could also use a real Democratic party, but I'll get on that later. We're just really complacent, which may be a harder problem to solve (if less spectacular at the end). |
2012-02-13T21:54:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12776 |
| Interesting point. This has been brewing since at least 2008 and the failure of the McCain campaign, which was generally not seen as "conservative" enough. That's where Palin comes in - an attempt to appeal to the conservative base and women at the same time. I guess the question that matters is whether the press really is portraying this differently or not. I think so, you think so, so perhaps that is indeed what has changed - it's all worn thin over time. Newt appears to be a dead issue by now, so if you were counting on him you may want to find something else. |
2012-02-13T20:33:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12772 |
| I completely agree, and could not have put it better! I do not want to take too much joy in the decline of the Republican party, but I have to take some in the decline of what Anna called "The Crazies". They are different from the vast majority of reasonable and intelligent Republicans. I want them to take over their party again - and if that means they wind up kicking Democrat butt then so be it! |
2012-02-13T19:13:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12770 |
| That has been correct, but things may be changing. However, with the Komen Foundation PR disaster along with contraception becoming an issue is an awful lot and will poltiicize / engage many women who otherwise would never care. A few more issues through the summer and we could see women voting 2:1 for a straight Democrat ticket. That's the problem I see for the Republicans at this point. But yes - I think keeping an eye on Women, Ohio, and Latinos should tell us where this election is going. So far it's more a question of turnout and enthusiasm, which is pretty low on both sides. That may change if women's basic rights appear to be under full assault. That's what's so poisonous about this for the right. |
2012-02-13T19:10:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12769 |
| That is the real goal here - to deal with what we should be dealing with rather than BS like Clint Eastwood or attempting to roll back contraception availability. But at some point we have to acknowledge why it's been so hard to deal with real issues. However, the Republican machine is very broken right now and I do think it's time to seize the opportunity and work towards real reform. | 2012-02-13T19:06:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12767 |
| Yes, we should know who we are dealing with by now. But .... they are usually so much more competent than they have been lately. It's laying things awfully bare (like this Winter, not last!). | 2012-02-13T19:04:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/13/republicans-crash-burn/#comment-12766 |
| You are correct. Sorry for the error. | 2012-02-10T23:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12716 |
| An excellent point, thanks! I may yet try to make a poem of some kind about the Managed Depression. Reading Dr. Seuss carefully shows me that the hard part - maintaining a constant rhythm and rhyme - is not as essential as I thought, and breaks can be very powerful. I am learning and may be able to tackle some economics in poems. That's a challenge!
Once I built a railroad, made it run, Made it race against time. Once I built a railroad - now it's done. Brother, can you spare a dime? |
2012-02-10T20:18:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12711 |
| It very much stayed with me, too. I couldn't help but cry when I read it to my kids for the first time - it had been years, yet I knew it so well. I brought out my copy today to make sure I got the quote just right (the first one is also on my quotations page!) and so many memories came back. It means so much. To wreck it is a very personal affront. | 2012-02-10T20:16:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12710 |
| Thanks! I would do more of them if I had more time. It would be great to do one a month, at least, so I'll try to pick up the pace. I do think this could be something I could sell to an online magazine, but no one has bit yet (hint!). It certainly is an unusual thing for the 'net. |
2012-02-10T20:14:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12709 |
| I keep telling Hollyweird that I'm available, but no one calls. Perhaps I shouldn't spell their name that way, eh? :-) | 2012-02-10T20:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12708 |
| A great story - we are hard-wired to love language, and the more musical it is the more it resonates deep inside of us. Even in the womb? A bit surprising, but I can imagine it. Thanks, Jerry! | 2012-02-10T20:11:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/10/rhythm-and-rhyme/#comment-12707 |
| Well, yes. That's pretty much where I'm coming from. I can't know everything about someone - what works for them, what doesn't, what they need in life and what they don't. If someone doesn't see things my way that's simply because I'm not them. As much as I appreciate liberal/democrat ideas, the reality is that we lose about half the time. Why is that? In part because we haven't solved the problems that really matter to people. One of them, I'm pretty sure, is the one above. If we can't get people jobs, what friggin' good are we? But I'm sure there are many more ways that we fail. Being insensitive to long cherished values doesn't help a bit, for one. So can we do a lot better? Of course we can - we can lose a lot less than we are. And I refuse to believe that about half the people are stupid or brainwashed or in some other way inferior to me. It's far more reasonable that "our side" has just done a lousy job for some reason - some reason most of us just don't understand. Look at that chart again and tell me why *anyone* in Ohio would have faith in the "system" when that has been going on for 10 years and no one has really said "Boo" about it. I think a lot of self-styled "Independents" would eagerly vote for the first Democrat they thought could reliably add 2 and 2 to get 4. They just haven't seen a lot of evidence that our team is capable of doing that. Why is that? Is our side particularly stupid? Probably not. We're just talking past a lot of people and seeing them where they live. So while I may not be able to talk to people on the "other side", though I might try sometimes, I will do my best to talk to "my side" and give a few pointers to people who at least really want to win, if not do the right thing. I've been accused by many people (usually the women in my life) of always standing "outside of myself" or something like that. Well, I'm not particularly selfish, I'd say, despite how popular selfishness is. But what you are thinking though right now is pretty much where I've been coming from these last five years or so. I try to meet the selfish world about halfway so I don't seem too weird and can get the message across, but you're where I tend to start from. Things look a little different when you're outside looking in on these issues, aren't they? People aren't dumb or duped - they have their reasons. Viva la Democracy. |
2012-02-09T03:57:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12673 |
| It's not all about Empire, at least it doesn't have to be. (I have a back post about nearly anything, ya know ... :-) ) But I do think that reconciling the images of empire and what it means to be British is very much what Doctor Who is very much about most of the time. | 2012-02-08T23:14:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12668 |
| Braaaaa-ziiiil ... when stars were entertaining June, We stood beneath an amber moon ,,, (I should work up a full parody, ya know!) I was thinking about this just last week, believe it or not. Why the Hell would anyone invest in a developed nation that doesn't seem to be going anywhere when you can put money into Brasil, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore ... hell, even India could be interesting. Now, if we could get people interested in Detroit, á la a Chrysler commercial, that would be more interesting. But something tells me that São Paulo is going to be far more enticing - and not just for the romance of it. |
2012-02-08T21:35:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12664 |
| Thank you, this will take some time to digest. What I can add is that back in 2000 the German economy faced much of what we did (the Depression was felt, at least in part, through the developed world). Back then there was a lot of streamlining and some "job sharing" where workers would voluntarily go to half-time and share one job rather than have layoffs. Much of what I see in this report in a quick skim deals with their unraveling the welfare state AND simultaneously working to bring full employment as much as deal with the 2008 downturn. I know that their overhead per employee is far lower than ours, which is what makes a lot of this possible - I still say that's point #1 for us to both get short-term job growth and speed up economic restructuring. But yes, a flexible labor force can be in the best interests of both employers and working families. Developing policies that make this possible are very critical, and Germany is way, way ahead of us on this. I will read the whole thing tonight, I hope. Thanks! As for China - so many things have to catch up with them. Start with demographics, add in a centrally planned economy, throw in chaos as they just passed the mark where a majority live in cities for the first time - yeah, they can't maintain this pace forever. |
2012-02-08T20:01:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12662 |
| A very, very good point. I hadn't thought of that at all. Thank you. But you can tell I'm suggesting tactics and themes for the election, yes. :-) | 2012-02-08T19:53:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12661 |
| Sheryl, the total swing was 63 for the Republicans: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2010 I was able to quickly dig up data on the Manufacturing Heartland and had these results for total swing to Republicans in 2010: OH 5 MI 2 PA 5 IN 2 WI 2 IL 4 TOTAL 20 That represents about a third of the nationwide swing (31%). The decline in manufacturing jobs, more heavily felt in the Manufacturing Heartland where they are a high percent of jobs and more heavily define the culture, has driven much of the swing in Congress. It's worth noting that these states represent 19% of the total population, meaning that their influence on the swing is 64% bigger than if the swing that year was evenly distributed everywhere. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population |
2012-02-08T18:20:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12656 |
| First, my apologies for the lack of a zero baseline - much as I love the graphs generated at the St Louis Fed, the inability to impose a real zero on them is a huge failing. I've written to them asking for at least the option and not had a response. I use them anyway because the source is so authoritative. As for the rest - YES! The Dems were given a chance and did not deliver. Granted, they weren't given a lot of time, but seeing as there was little progress and no one was actually focusing on the problem I don't blame Ohio for giving up early. I honestly believe that they will keep doing the same thing until something changes. The question is - has anything really changed? You're clearly skeptical that anything is changing and I don't blame you. I'm about halfway down the same road myself. But if there are jobs being created, especially in manufacturing, it may seem like something is going right even if the leadership really isn't there to push it hard. We'll see what they think in Ohio come November. And the rest of the nation, too. |
2012-02-08T18:10:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12655 |
| Thanks. That's what I think this election is going to be about - more or less what the last several have been about in Ohio, except even moreso nationwide. | 2012-02-08T18:06:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/08/swing-state/#comment-12654 |
| I don't like assigning motives to people and groups that I don't know well, so I hate saying that about the Republicans. But it sure looks like that's what they are doing, and a majority of Americans believe it's true. That has to bite them in the butt here, especially if things are turning around and they keep whining like they haven't. | 2012-02-07T22:12:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12632 |
| I never commented on the ECB raising rates because, frankly, I never understood it. All the signs - slow growth, sovereign debt issues, bank deleveraging - all pointed to cheap money as the best way out. There had to be some internal politics (read: German meddling) that caused that, IMHO. We have had the right structure in place and the right people to handle this Depression about as well as one could be. The only thing we've been missing is the sense of urgency - which would come if we focused more on people than money. But our government has managed the money pretty well all in all, I'd say. As for foreign policy, it's funny how Europe got that together so well. I think the outside threats are pretty clear so it's not too amazing - and most of the nations really don't want to spend more on military than they have to so coordination fills in gaps nicely. Still, it's come along very well. There is a Europe in our future, and I think there is most likely a Euro as well. They just have to get real and see that it's time to open a joint checking account. :-) |
2012-02-07T22:09:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12631 |
| Jack, that is the kind of thing I want to hear as well. I'm always interested in confirming these numbers because there is always good reason for skepticism. This is real and it's backed up by a lot of things. Thank you. Now - let's all contemplate for a moment that we're pretty sure that job growth is leading economic growth. To me, this confirms at the very least that things are different this time - and probably confirms that this is more of a Depression (ie, major generational economic change) than an ordinary Recession. |
2012-02-06T21:48:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12626 |
| I'm excited for the Democrats largely because this could spark the Renaissance of progressive thinking (and a generational change) that I've been expecting for over a decade now. I think it's very important for real "progress" to occur. | 2012-02-06T21:45:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12625 |
| I can see how it seems suspicious, but keep in mind that this has been trending for a very long time and it is backed up by data from payroll processor ADP. Their numbers vary up and down a bit each month but the aggregate is about the same all in all. The headline unemployment rate is indeed a lot of fudge and really should not be used (unless you have to relate to someone else's work, which happens). But this figure, total jobs, is pretty golden and hard to fudge. I am quite sure it is real and it even makes sense. |
2012-02-06T19:03:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12621 |
| I don't know why, but you reminded me of this poll showing that a majority of independents think the Republicans are deliberately sabotaging the Obama administration and economy: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/independents-and-moderates-agree-gop-deliberately-sabotaging-obamas-jobs-policies/2011/11/07/gIQAPMfSvM_blog.html I think there is a lot of skepticism out there, and nearly all of it is healthy. People aren't taking the BS they used to. I just want to see this lead to something good. |
2012-02-06T17:10:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12618 |
| Thanks. That is a point I have been thinking about a lot lately, but to expound on it I'd need some more data than I have right now. I was thinking about this as part of a small eBook (or eBook series) on the economy and politics that would put a lot of the Barataria arguments together in one place. There is a bit of a hole here, but I think it's very true that in a truly liquid market is is impossible to make distinctions between capital and ordinary money. | 2012-02-06T17:07:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/06/back-to-even/#comment-12617 |
| If we get into a long-term regime of this things will have to change. One example of a world without interest is Arab Banking, based on the prohibition against interest in the Koran. They form something more like a business partnership for nearly everything - I have no idea how home loans work, however. Our move towards venture capital is more or less along the same lines. Of course, ordinary credit is still very important, but I think we've seen this trend coming for a long time the more I think about it. No idea what it could mean for amortization - excellent question! You're the accountant, yes? :-) But we'd have to be in a long-term regime of zero to negative interest before we have to worry about that. We'll see if that is in the cards. The concentration of wealth has led us to some very bizarre breakdowns in the Middle-Class system we built up over the years. |
2012-02-05T02:23:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12593 |
| The short answer is that they hold an auction. The long answer can be found on the Treasury website. The effective rate is determined by how much people pay for a T-Bill that comes into the auction with a face value of the bond and a set payment schedule. To make it come out negative, they'd have to offer the bonds with a face value and a net payment in from the potential investors, which would be very strange. It has to be done deliberately up front. | 2012-02-04T05:45:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12587 |
| If it functions only as a tax, I am very much for it. There seem to be so many potential ramifications here that it's worth talking through at great length before we "go there". I think the Treasury feels the same way, too, which is rather wise of them. Gold? Feh. It might stay about where it is for a while, but with decent job growth, a declining ^VIX, and some sense of confidence returning it really can only go down (unless, of course, Europe blows up - always have to have that caveat). I see your point on defense spending - cutting it too rapidly would cause problems. However, cutting mostly overseas won't affect our economy. I think there are ways to show Iran we mean business (or, at least, Israel does, ahem!) and dramatically reduce our overseas deployment. That is what I read Obama as wanting to do, and I support it. But I understand that cutting military now is dangerous, at least without some other job creating spending in other areas. I still think there are ways that we can speed up the economic Reform with strategic government spending which would be far more effective than what now goes into Defense. |
2012-02-03T23:13:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12583 |
| Thanks. Yes, negative *real* rates have happened quite a lot, but negative *nominal* rates are at least extremely rare - and I don't know of any incidents that were not quick flukes but were actual policy of some kind. Any examples are appreciated because if we have some guide as to how this has worked before we can make some guesses as to how it might work today. Hopefully. :-) I also agree that assigning a negative value to capital is a truly stunning development and worth looking at in far more depth. As you know, I have been taking on various aspects of "Supply-Side" (ie, tax and other policies designed to create more/bigger pools of capital) and "Socialized Risk" - both are linked to up in there somewhere. You're right to think about the devaluation of labor (part of high unemployment) and the true meaning of a "Depression" at this point in time. There is a LOT to think about here. I do intend to keep after it. I really want to see the January jobs report that JUST NOW came out in some detail - something strange is going on and we are indeed creating jobs. Where/why/how/what? |
2012-02-03T20:19:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12580 |
| Having gotten to know you a bit, Jim, I have to say that this is a pretty big statement from you in particular. I wonder how many people are starting to believe, as you have, that things are different enough to warrant very different action than you've been in favor of before. I applaud your openness, BTW. | 2012-02-03T20:11:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12579 |
| Yes on all counts. If we are going to pursue a policy of lower taxes on investment income (although such a policy is looking stupider all the time) the LEAST we can do is tax the bejayzus out of idle capital. But the flight overseas to avoid such taxes is a very real possibility these days given how incredibly liquid everything is. Not sure how to do it effectively, to be honest. Negative interest may be the only tool we have to make investment happen. | 2012-02-03T20:09:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12578 |
| I guess there have been spots of slightly negative rates on some overnight charges - I do remember Japan going slightly negative briefly in the 90s, for example. But it's never been more than a quick fluke to my mind. Just because I haven't heard of it doesn't mean it hasn't happened, tho, so I'm always game for a good example. | 2012-02-03T20:06:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12577 |
| Sorry I made things hard on you, but this has to be thunk out a lot before anyone can even pretend to grasp it. There is just way too much to this to summarize in 800 words or less. Please, think about it - and let us all know if you come up with something else. This is totally uncharted territory and the greatest minds of this and every other time have not gone here. Scary stuff, no? | 2012-02-03T17:40:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12571 |
| Yes to everything! I can't find an example of this historically. The ask.com page on interest says, "I cannot imagine nominal interest rates ever going negative," which is a wonderful confession the author probably never thought would be important. | 2012-02-03T17:38:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/03/negative-interest/#comment-12570 |
| Brandl was a great guy, knew him as Dean of Humphrey. And yes, he was definitely a free-market Democrat. I hope there are a lot of us still out there (think so, always making sure). I have a lot of faith in our Fed and do think that they are doing everything they can. But things do go badly as we move through badly charted territory. Having a Congress that seems to want to manage supply-side and a Fed that seems eager to pump demand is just about exactly bass-ackwards, IMHO. |
2012-02-02T01:41:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12548 |
| Thanks. I'd call us a dysfunctional family, but that seems like an insult to the dysfunctional. And families. :-) | 2012-02-01T19:54:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/01/drugs/#comment-12543 |
| It really has gotten stranger all the time, hasn't it? The hypocrisy of "medical marijuana" is pretty strange, too. Might as well just legalize it rather than go through this nonsense. | 2012-02-01T19:53:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/01/drugs/#comment-12542 |
| Thanks for the correction and links. I read about the Colorado amendment a bit too quickly. The support for it does seem quite strong, unlike California, so there may be a state issuing a direct challenge to the Feds. I have no idea how the arguments will go on that topic. | 2012-02-01T19:52:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/01/drugs/#comment-12541 |
| Thank you, that's what I'm looking for. I'm not calling for anything here because I have no way to look at the whole topic that makes much sense to me - but the increase in caffeine consumption and purity of what is available is astonishing. I guess to me any policy has to start with education - do people know that 500mg of caffeine can kill them? After that, definition of real public threats is very important, such as how alcohol impairs driving ability. Then I think we get to policy on addiction for those who have developed a problem, and the Portuguese model looks very interesting. But what should be illegal and/or how it is enforced still escapes me at this point. I don't see why marijuana should be illegal, but I can't imagine cocaine being legal somehow - and I really can't justify that without a better framework for thinking this through. |
2012-02-01T17:34:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/02/01/drugs/#comment-12537 |
| Just as a follow-up - I kind of forgot this piece from last August on the Dollar Standard, why it's a bad thing, and why it's even worse to end it quickly: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/ It's a complex subject but it's vital that we get a handle on it (for once). |
2012-01-30T22:07:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12521 |
| I don't entirely disagree. Just printing a few more Euros would reflate things rather naturally, even if it would be tough on banks. And yes, the enormous military we have is clearly at least in part about defending the Dollar Standard. Not a pretty thing. | 2012-01-30T21:54:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12520 |
| The term "haircut" is used to describe a partial default, since they are usually a reorganization of debt with a small default - say, 10% - that represents "a little off the top". The term is a cliché that has absolutely no business being used around a 70% default. Anyone who uses this term to describe the Greek restructuring should be immediately ignored, IMHO. There is still a chance that the world financial system could collapse, yes. That is exactly what the Eurozone is trying to avoid here. I think it's likely we'll keep "muddling through", as Mauldin puts it, but hopefully sentiment will turn a bit in the short term. That's about all we can hope for. |
2012-01-30T18:20:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12517 |
| Once again, I'm not trying to be optimistic but to show that there is a way out of this. The Euro crisis all depends on how it is received - and I don't think trust is very high so it may take a very long time to sink in even if it is solved. What I expect is that a small sense of relief might get those with big piles of money sitting in the Federal Reserve accounts to invest in the US and get us moving again. Long term, the only solution is for the US Dollar to lose its standing as the world currency. That will be very painful, even if a way is found to do it gradually. The IMF is working on this so there is, once again, a way out. But it will not be easy. This crisis just highlights the terrible downside of ruling the world as we do - it means we have trouble keeping our own workforce employed. That means we slowly rot from within, as we have been doing. I hope no one sees that analysis as "optimistic". |
2012-01-30T18:08:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12514 |
| Sorry, I think wordpress has been eating them lately. Thanks for the comment, I do want to get this story out into the world and that means boiling it down to what is important. While about half of Barataria readers are outside the US, my main focus is on US readers (sorry!) because we have so much to learn in order to be better citizens. There are some hard choices to be made - choices masked by a lot of noise and BS that has been distracting us. The Euro sovereign debt issue is one distraction but, told a different way, actually highlights the main problem for us. Hope people follow some of the links up there because this is a summary of past comments in many ways - some of it won't make sense to people or have hit their radar before (such as the 8M manufacturing jobs lost in the last decade!). |
2012-01-30T18:05:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/30/one-crisis-at-a-time-please/#comment-12513 |
| Thanks! :-) | 2012-01-27T23:10:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/27/no-way/#comment-12471 |
| Very good point, thanks. The real problem is that ordinary people were never trusted to be part of the decision making process. | 2012-01-27T23:10:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/27/no-way/#comment-12470 |
| I think you are right that trust in traditional sources of news has gone pretty far south, and that's a lot of what we see. Thinking out loud, working through it, does seem to be part of what is happening. Most of the people I talk to go between being very sure of a few things and then very unsure about details, solutions, or the like. I hope I portrayed that here. | 2012-01-27T17:59:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/27/no-way/#comment-12465 |
| Thanks! Perhaps it is just more news that is bewildering people, but the tendency to talk about it more has fascinated me. Some of this used to be "impolite" or off limits, but it isn't any longer. I think people realize that there are big changes happening that they don't necessarily understand - but need to, at least in part. I enjoy doing what I can to explain things. | 2012-01-27T17:57:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/27/no-way/#comment-12464 |
| Yes, we absolutely need a real dialogue of some kind of health care. How anyone can claim to be pro-business (big or small) and in any way support the current system of sticking employers with the health care tab is far beyond my ability to fathom. Putting Medicare reform in with that is only logical, so there's something for both parties to give on - and it just has to happen. Before the joke primaries, however, we had the joke SuperCommittee - a gag I fell for as much as anyone. I really thought they'd at least never get out of the promises after the big show. Would there be a deal? Recisssion? Some other process? No, the answer was ... nothing. Nada. Nichts. Bupkiss. Something has to radically change. It has been years since the US Congress even passed a real budget and that's simply unforgivable. |
2012-01-26T17:27:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12445 |
| Thanks, and excellent point. If the 1968 analogy was to hold we should have a Wallace by now - thankfully, we don't. Maybe Paul is the Wallace of our time, which is to say that we're not as bad off but someone from the far outside with a relatively simple and pure message has to make a showing. | 2012-01-25T22:21:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12426 |
| I think a lot of Republicans are showing some level of spine and protesting the only way they can. Perhaps the rank and file are much smarter than the people running things these days - who seem to be generally the Brodkorb-types of the world who whine the loudest and make everything as crazy as possible. 100% Fact-Free Politics sounds like a fake product label waiting to be made .... excellent tag, thanks. It's where we've been for far too long. Hard to imagine getting out of this mess without getting past this nonsense, either. |
2012-01-25T22:17:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12425 |
| Another joke (that no one will get) is that Gingrich isn't really the biggest prick to ever run for President, so perhaps South Carolina only voted for him because John C Calhoun is dead. It's not much, I admit. I have no problem with people who support Romney and I wish you well. If you can save help save a major political party from purgatory you certainly have my blessing. But you have to allow me at least a little schadenfreude if it doesn't work out - and I don't say that lightly because I really hate most of the German phrases that are used in popular vocabulary as clichés (for example, I never say zeitgeist). But you point out well that this has happened to Democrats many times and we have a spotty record of pulling it together in the end. I have been envious of the Republican ability to heal wounds (which seems to, in part, include promising the insurgent second-placer the nod in 4 years). It probably had to break down someday, and that appears to be now. Between the Tea Pary, the Christians, the Paulite Libertarians, and the establishment there are a LOT of forces to pull together in the end. If only we Democrats really had our act together - this could start a few decades of left wing momentum. Ah, there is still time. | 2012-01-25T22:13:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12424 |
| I want to make fun of the guy, but he's so awful it's hard. The only joke I have so far is that we should have some pity for him - it must be hard to keep your pants on when your balls are that big. | 2012-01-25T20:38:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12421 |
| There is so much more I could have said in this piece, but in the interest of unity and brevity I left them out. The most important to me is the observation that my 15 year old daughter made - that Gingrich is a lot like Nixon, the man who kept coming back despite a terrible personality flaw. Gingrich's flaw is the exact opposite of Nixon's - too much self-confidence versus not enough - but the effect is remarkably similar. And ... he keeps coming back again and again. Why? Is it really that bad that Gingrich is looking like a good idea? I know things were very bad in 1968, so the fact that Nixon looked like a good idea isn't totally surprising in hindsight ... but can anyone really tell us that Gingrich looks like anything other than an overblown buffoon? I really don't get this. But we wound up with Nixon once, too. History doesn't repeat, but it sure can rhyme like a slam poet on a devastating tear. |
2012-01-25T18:18:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12416 |
| I think Romney could be a decent President, actually, but I prefer Obama. I don't know why people dislike him so much, to be honest. Mormon? Boring? Rich? Wishy-washy? There are a lot of little things that seem to add up to a lot of nothing. | 2012-01-25T18:11:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12415 |
| I would think that's true, but as a guy I didn't want to comment. Thanks! | 2012-01-25T18:09:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12414 |
| Yes, it could be that bad. It's what happens down the ticket (as George Will wondered) that makes it interesting. | 2012-01-25T18:08:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12413 |
| Yes, this is cynical. A functioning Republican Party is a good thing because it keeps us honest - but I can't say we've had such a beast in a while. It's all been electoral games and playground rules. So if this is what it takes to break things up, well, let's get through it and move on! | 2012-01-25T18:08:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/25/gingrich-really/#comment-12412 |
| It is true that the two parties thought they might like this situation, at least for their own reasons. But it has become clear to the right that unlimited money means that they have no control over their own people and thus their own party. This is not what they thought they were getting, not at all. | 2012-01-24T22:50:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12396 |
| I like that joke. :-) The dissent by James Nelson in Montana concluded by saying that "the death penalty and hell are reserved for natural persons". :-) Seriously, tho, I think everything has to be on the table and something has to be done fast. I think if Congress got its act totally together the Supremes might let a lot slide by. All the same, any challenge would not be decided until long after this election. |
2012-01-23T22:41:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12373 |
| I'm for considering that and any other option at this point. | 2012-01-23T22:38:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12372 |
| Seems to be a popular sentiment. So, what are we gonna do about it? A real plan of action is probably called for if we're going to get anywhere. People can occupy whatever they want, but without an agenda there isn't anything to make happen. | 2012-01-23T21:42:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12369 |
| I'm not making excuses for them .... well, maybe I am, but the actual decision does outline carefully what the Court thinks is OK. We didn't even enact that, which is where the chaos comes from. I don't know if Montana can force a reconsideration, but I applaud their bravery. I hope it catches on. One thing we have to be very careful about as another anniversary - the 40th of Roe v. Wade approaches - is that forcing a remedy to a bad Supreme Court decision we do not start some kind of precedent that the Supremes' decisions can be annulled by other action. The rule of law is pretty important, and there are many things we can lose if we aren't careful. | 2012-01-23T21:41:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12368 |
| You sound like my Dad. What I always tell him is that I'm actually OK with term limits, but I want major redistricting reform first. And, of course, some kind of campaign finance reform. If the price of Republican support for this is term limits, then so be it. | 2012-01-23T21:37:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12367 |
| Nope. Not at all. The result has been complete chaos, IMHO. | 2012-01-23T21:35:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/23/citizens-united/#comment-12366 |
| Excellent point! This is totally embedded in our credit culture at this point. People will go to great lengths just to make sure they have access to a lot of debt - which, I would say, is access to a lot of problems (or even slavery). And that is how we run businesses and the nation and just about everything. The adults who had to content with the Great Depression of 1929 would be appalled that we learned so little from them. | 2012-01-20T22:53:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12299 |
| Thanks, that's just what I need. But you know what I mean about how cyclical these things are better than most - especially since we both have houses that date from the Depression of 1857 (what, like 3 Depressions ago, depending on how you count). I don't think that many people really "get" this - and I hope the explanation as to why we have these ancient "supercycles" makes sense. So how do we package it up in a way that doesn't sound crazy (like some History Channel Ancient Alien show or something)? As for not being a Texan, I'm happy for that. :-) But this illustrates my point about the heritage of North Americans - when the going gets tough, the tough get up and leave. Seriously, we have a long history of moving on to find opportunity. I don't understand why would expect anything different from our North American brothers and sisters who speak Spanish, French, Navajo, or whatever. |
2012-01-20T22:51:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12298 |
| Reagan was a big part of what went wrong, yes, but it started before him. Stories are essential moving the truth from our heads to our guts - I think most people can understand intellectually what this is about, but being able to react to what it means is another problem entirely. | 2012-01-20T19:37:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12294 |
| That's where I start - it's never different this time, no matter how much people insist that it is. I don't know how to get that story into the guts of the young people who will have to deal with this and make their own way. | 2012-01-20T19:36:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12293 |
| Dan, Perot had a lot to say on a number of topics. I'm thinking about what he said on NAFTA, for example, which I think had to happen all the same but did appear to go down much more like he said than I'd like. Your example of the automobile is important - some level of competition internationally is absolutely critical - but when does it go over the line and threaten our own ability to survive? We've been through a GM bankruptcy now that looks somewhat inevitable given how bad things were back in the 80s - but it took 25 years to happen. |
2012-01-20T19:35:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12292 |
| Yes, that's what I mean. I'm looking for ideas and chewing this up a bit to try to think about how the Really Big Picture can get into people's heads for once. There are implications that are vast, but it's probably best to not be distracted by them. I'm working on it. May need to write a book of some kind. | 2012-01-20T19:32:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/20/debt-supercycle/#comment-12291 |
| And sometimes you fight chickens with chickens, but that's a whole 'nuther South Carolina tradition we won't go into. It's far from ideal, but it's what we have right now. It may even be working. | 2012-01-18T22:48:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12246 |
| I'm sure there is one. The Cowpens isn't a site I've visited, and it has been a long time since I have been to SC. In fact, the last time I was there they still had mini-bottles in every bar (which I understand they repealed a while ago). | 2012-01-18T22:47:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12245 |
| True. I should ask some of my Republican friends what they think. It is making their whole process look terrible - but, then again, all the Republican candidates have had SuperPACs that have behaved very badly. | 2012-01-18T22:46:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12244 |
| I realize this is embarrassing, but it has to be done. It does seem like an insult to people in Syria, for example, who are dying to have even a little of what we are destroying. But this has to be done, IMHO. | 2012-01-18T22:44:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12243 |
| We will know on Saturday night! | 2012-01-18T22:43:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/18/open-letter-to-south-carolina/#comment-12242 |
| Yes, the lack of leadership at all levels - business, politics, everything - is very pathetic. It's all around the Developed World, too. | 2012-01-17T22:50:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12216 |
| It will probably come back yet. It is needed. | 2012-01-16T21:01:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12194 |
| Thanks! I think that is the real problem - control. In order to challenge the way things are we need different skills than the usual controlling people to keep them in line that is usually practiced, IMHO. | 2012-01-16T21:00:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12193 |
| Yes, there is a writer's craft involved in this, but in the end it's performance art. The writers on that show were very skilled at this craft (possibly too much so, since it doesn't really happen that much in real life). | 2012-01-16T20:59:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12192 |
| Thanks. It is a craft and anyone can learn it if they want to. I wish more people would! | 2012-01-16T20:58:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12191 |
| Thanks, Jan - been a while since you stopped by! Happy MLK Day! | 2012-01-16T20:57:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/16/cadence/#comment-12190 |
| It would be fun if he did it, yes. But he can't get the Repub nomination right now (missed a lot of deadlines) and I don't see any of this working as an independent. But .... who knows? | 2012-01-15T22:15:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12162 |
| I do, too! :-) | 2012-01-13T21:26:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12130 |
| I think that humor is the way we'll get control over it. The Emperor has not clothes and he's out of shape. Let's point and laugh for a bit, and then get him the Hell out of there! | 2012-01-13T21:25:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12129 |
| Interesting way to look at it. I guess if you value truth in your leaders, or at least a dose of reality, why not? And those are good values. :-) | 2012-01-13T21:22:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12128 |
| The way we choose a President is so absurd, however. I agree it should be serious, but I don't think it has been for a long time. | 2012-01-13T21:21:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12127 |
| Amen. I'm with you on this one. | 2012-01-13T21:20:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/13/a-better-tomorrow-eventually/#comment-12126 |
| Geographically you're certainly right. The deal in Ohio is more than just jobs - it could well be retraining and/or the return of the manufacturing jobs they lost. I dug out data on Ohio specifically at the St Louis Fed, and their job loss has been hugely in manufacturing: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=53254&category_id=0 (I save the graphs I like, what can I say?) They lost 500k jobs total since 2001, never really gaining anything back between the two official "recessions" of 2001 and 2008. 370k of them were in manufacturing alone! This explains why they switch parties so often - they keep voting against whoever is in power. What makes them a swing state is that they got hammered and aren't making the ground back at all. The mild upswing in 2011 will have to accelerate before Ohio will feel comfortable, I'm sure, so I would say that if you want to see the Buckeye state feel good about Obama you should look for about 300k jobs there in the next 10 months - ideally in manufacturing. |
2012-01-12T05:49:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12071 |
| I guess I don't necessarily want to sound optimistic, but rather lay out the terms for while we see not only that this is real (ie, it continues at least as strong) as well as what's likely to be the political patter in the coming year. I know, people don't get their economic news from sources that are willing to describe this in terms outside of what they already know, so they are terribly crippled when it comes to unusual (not new!) situations like this. I'm not a fan of Krugman, but only because I think there are big investments the Feds can make in both jobs and, especially, restructuring - but we can also throw away a lot of money if we're not careful. I'm not a fan of simple stimulus for the sake of it, but instead carefully designed efforts and easing the restructuring that has been allowed to languish for a solid decade. This may seem like a quibble, and outside the Left it probably is, but I think it's very important. |
2012-01-12T05:43:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12070 |
| That seems fair. What convinced me that it had to be real was when ADP (a private payroll processing company) consistently verified the numbers from BLS. They weren't all that close at the start of 2011, and both were scrambling to find out why. We then had revisions up for the first time since the start of the Depression. That says to me that they had trouble finding the new jobs, which is just what we would expect in a major restructuring. So between the independent verification, the scramble to conform, and the small but real skill gap I think we are seeing what we should expect when the foundation of an actual recovery is finally in place. Note that I'm not calling this a real "recovery" in the Postwar Post-Recession sense at all. This is different. | 2012-01-11T20:28:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12057 |
| I understand. If someone had said in August, "Relax, it'll look OK by January" I would not have believed them. It's not exciting job growth, but it's something. The economy itself is still very weak and could see a reversal from any one of a number of external factors - the most obvious coming from Europe, but we can't ignore a home-grown meltdown like JP Morgan being heavily implicated in the MF Global debacle (I almost wrote about this today - but give it another week to unfold some more). Should you be skeptical? I don't blame you at all. I'm looking for reasons why this could be turning around because it seems to be adding up. But it is always worth keeping your eyes open at the very least. I'm laying out just what would have to happen for us to get 'er back to even before the election - and believably so. We'll see. |
2012-01-11T20:04:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12055 |
| Anna, I think you have it here. This had to come sometime - and it's not as though it is so strong that it really does look like someone is goosing things. We still don't know exactly where the new jobs are coming from, but they appear to be under SIC category "Professional and Managerial" predominantly - which is to say that people are forming consultancy and service companies. This only makes sense since their benefits are running out or they are young and never had any - people have to eat. Jobs had to be created somehow eventually just for that reason. Rather than just say it's real, as I have, I think it makes sense to offer an experiment that says, "Here is how you can be sure it is real as we go forward". That's about all any of us can do, IMHO. |
2012-01-11T18:39:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12052 |
| Jim, I was slow to accept the new job growth for a lot of reasons, but it does appear to be real and ongoing. Yes, the timing is pretty strange but there's always the chance we'll greatly exceed the 1.6M and it won't be a buzzer-beater (good term!) heading into the election. | 2012-01-11T18:36:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/11/obamas-job-and-yours/#comment-12051 |
| That's my experience, too. People I know are finding work. I think I might step up the real-job search soon, too. | 2012-01-10T22:01:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/#comment-12032 |
| If you think that the job growth is faked for the election year, I don't think that is the case. Remember, these are not just government stats but they are verified by ADP (a payroll processor). It has been accelerating a bit since July, and we've added over 650k jobs since then - so it's been going on for a while. It's real. But it doesn't match up with real (inflation adjusted) increases in GDP, which are still pretty anemic. I admit this. Either it's a fake (which I really doubt now) or there is something unusual happening. I'm presenting the case for the latter, which I do believe now. It's not like job growth is especially strong, but it is stronger than we should expect in this rather weak economy. |
2012-01-10T01:10:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/#comment-12008 |
| Yes, that is what I think may be happening. There is little doubt in my mind that job growth is ahead of the total economy, at least in traditional "recovery" terms. That alone is very strange - but it may not be unreasonable at all. | 2012-01-09T20:08:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/#comment-12004 |
| Yes, you have it. We should not be growing jobs at the rate we are - so I asked why would this be happening. I am convinced it's real (took a few months) but it defies explanation. I realized that we have been lagging for a decade, so that might well explain it. And it does. But this is totally backwards from what anyone would expect, so we it's worth being a bit circumspect. But .... we don't have Depressions like this all the time, so why would things be the same as always? If there's one thing I learned through this process it's that Conventional Wisdom has not explained very much. I think that's still going on right now. Jobs leading the restructuring / recovery? Why not? |
2012-01-09T18:10:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/09/growing-jobs-revisited/#comment-12000 |
| The Katrina analogy is a good one. Getting out of the world means more responsibility with our allies, so yes, we have to do that. | 2012-01-06T23:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/06/good-news-or-bad/#comment-11950 |
| Defense cuts on the order of $300B a year are definitely called for IMHO, but we'll see what is really proposed. Europe is a real problem that continues to fester and I'll stay on top of it - but there isn't a lot of useful news now that the problem appears to have turned from soveriegn debt to the murky world of banks. This could be terminal, yes, but it's not clear to me that it's a systemic failure across Europe. The collapse of a few small banks might actually help speed the integration and reform needed, much like MF Global's collapse here had little collateral damage but a big boost for those of us calling for reform. But yes, I agree that Europe has at least the potential to totally swamp what is actually some positive news on jobs here in the USofA. I want to be optimistic but really can't be. This will either work slowly or fail spectacularly, IMHO. |
2012-01-06T18:54:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/06/good-news-or-bad/#comment-11945 |
| Funny you should call me an optimist - back when I was just about the only person calling this a Depression (that was 2008 or so) people called me a permabear. My argument, that this is a Depression but we can manage it if we open our eyes, was seen as negative. I think you're closer to describing me than people were back then. :-) As for a war with China, what Obama is proposing appears to be a re-set back to early 2001 thinking. Remember when our spy plane was shot down by China? The reason we were at it then and will be in the future is that our allies and potential allies in the area demand it. They are scared of China and want a counter-balance. That does not mean it will come to war, and I think the Chinese expect us to take the position we're taking. I'm not too worried about that, at least in the short term. Excellent article on it, BTW: http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/national-security/turning-the-page-on-iraq-and-afghanistan-obama-shifts-focus-to-asian-security-threats/2012/01/06/gIQAMKmOeP_story.html I'll talk more about this as we get more details - I think Baratarians in general could do a good job figuring out what is important in the Defense proposal(s) as they come out. Europe? I really don't know anymore. See below. :-) |
2012-01-06T18:50:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/06/good-news-or-bad/#comment-11944 |
| I honestly don't know what to make of Europe right now - they are so close to the brink and yet so casual about it. I think they are expecting us to bail them out. But if we don't, what will happen to us? Doesn't seem good no matter what. And there is momentum right now, it just has to pick up a lot more steam before it's anything really good. | 2012-01-06T18:17:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/06/good-news-or-bad/#comment-11941 |
| Well said, thank you. I do not want "majority rule" all the time for everything, but the needs of a community to work together cannot be ignored either. There is a yin and yang to everything. | 2012-01-05T19:37:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11930 |
| That is a good addition. Libertarianism has its appeal, but there is reality to contend with as well. What I like about Paul is that he gets us to think - but what I don't like are many of his conclusions. This is a very cold example of one of them. Was it a big government intrusion? Sure, but it had to happen. Good to do it with our eyes open - but it had to be done. | 2012-01-05T19:35:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11929 |
| Thanks. It's a bit more personal than I usually do, but when something happens to illustrate a big problem I'm usually inspired. | 2012-01-05T19:32:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11928 |
| And there she is! I'll vouch for Liz on this point - until it happens to you, you have no idea how you'll respond. She's been very strong through all this but it's very exhausting to be in constant pain. | 2012-01-05T19:31:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11927 |
| Sounds like a situation very similar to what Liz is dealing with, although I think she'd go for a permanent solution if it was clear. It is a matter of doing what pain clinic teach, which is how to manage the pain rather than just pop more pills. There are a lot of skills and techniques involved, as John told us, and I'll let everyone know as we learn more. |
2012-01-05T02:26:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11914 |
| I was hoping to hear more people offer solutions and talk about their own experiences when I wrote this. Maybe with time we'll have more. | 2012-01-05T02:24:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11913 |
| I think they are awfully quick to hand people potentially dangerous drugs and do a terrible job explaining the risks. People in pain are not necessarily thinking all that clearly so it's hard to tell people to be careful - but they don't really seem to try anyway. Generally the real solution will come with the patients / consumers, but I think the doctors have some obligation here as well. | 2012-01-04T20:37:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11907 |
| Yes, girlfriend, but I hate that term (sounds rather juvenile to me!). She's doing OK, but what we learned from John might help her a lot. | 2012-01-04T20:35:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11906 |
| It was eating comments earlier - sorry! | 2012-01-04T20:34:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/04/the-pills/#comment-11905 |
| Thanks! But ... yes, there's a lot more to it than we see on the surface. I agree that the Obama people are interested in Reform, but they aren't pushing it nearly hard enough. I think that's the ticket right now - the first party to successfully claim they are the party of reform will be in power for the next 20 years. If we fail to create any such party / faction, I agree that a lot of pain will result for a lot of reasons - one of them the rise of people like the Paul faction. I do think that the Paul people have a lot to add to the debate, but generally I don't want them to have a lot of power. The problem that I see is that we're still fighting along very narrow left/right lines and need to open things up a lot, which Paulites would do. |
2012-01-03T17:16:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11890 |
| That would be logical, yes, but I think that perhaps some of the comentators here were very wise in pointing out that they are afraid of his message. They could be right. | 2012-01-03T17:12:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11889 |
| Hey, we have one supporter here! We should sit down and have a long chat sometime - we'd have a lot to fight about, but it's the fun kind of fight I'm sure. | 2012-01-03T17:09:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11888 |
| Interesting take. I wonder how many people do care about foreign policy - probably not many. I think the real key for Paul are the people who are dissatisfied and looking for something new. I also think you're right on banning the Fed, so I rarely think of it as a possibility as well. What I usually say to Paul's supporters is that I agree with them on about half and vehemently disagree on half, but the stuff we agree on is some powerful reform. If we worked together until we got to the point where we fought like cats and dogs I think there'd be a lot of really good stuff accomplished. |
2012-01-02T19:33:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11870 |
| Thanks - I hadn't thought of him as a pure protest vote, but that could give him more pull. Why not? Perhaps he is a measure of general dissatisfaction. | 2012-01-02T19:29:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11869 |
| Alan, this is exactly what I mean about their attempts to marginalize Ron Paul - they really do make him stronger. And I don't think the Big Boyz know how much their fear comes through when they do it. It makes ordinary citizens who are looking for new ideas much more interested in the man that the crooks fear. Oh, and I totally agree on Santorum - I can't believe he's catching on at all, so I really don't want to predict he'll be in it for the long haul even as a factional minority player. But there you have it. |
2012-01-02T19:28:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11868 |
| Thanks! But in the future I'm a bit protective of re-blogging (links are always good!). I do retain copyrights. | 2012-01-02T19:26:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul/#comment-11867 |
| Reality is always funnier than made up stuff. :-) | 2011-12-30T22:58:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/30/primary-reader-2/#comment-11812 |
| Good point - more like Kindergarten! | 2011-12-30T22:57:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/30/primary-reader-2/#comment-11811 |
| I think we all take it way too seriously as it is. Except Donald Trump, that is - but he's an idiot. | 2011-12-30T22:57:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/30/primary-reader-2/#comment-11810 |
| Oh, don't get me wrong - a decade into this and I think we have a decade left to go unless we get our act together. If we take this seriously and stop screwing around we can have a program of Reform in government that recognizes the Restructuring going on around us, helps it move forward, and creates much more equal opportunity for everyone. That's a lot to ask, so I don't really expect it - but I have to keep trying. Another decade of this crap and we may be looking at a revolution first. | 2011-12-28T22:47:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11769 |
| Oh, you're far from the only Republican reader here, but we don't get a lot of comments from the right. Sad, really. If you want to know what Liberals really stand for ... well, good luck with that. The ideological momentum has been with the right for about 30 years and I think will stay there. I think they win largely because they have a plan, any plan, which makes them appear intelligent. I don't think many people knew more about the "Contract with America" other than the name - and Newt is still getting mileage out of it nearly 20 years on. Of course, I'd like to stand for something as a party, and I hope I'm contributing to that. The March on (blank) crowd is much happier keeping it vague, as if good government is something like pornography (we'll know it when we see it). I think that an active program of reform is essential, but without re-iterating core values it's hard to get that going - but it blunts the small government arguments made by hatchet wielders nicely, IMHO. That's my schtick for now. I'll say more later, and something ovr on teh Brodkorb thread, too. :-) |
2011-12-28T22:44:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11768 |
| I'm not arguing that this isn't a Depression - we've been in something like a Depression for a decade. But eventually we come out of it. It's been very uneven so far since this is the "Managed Depression" - most of the managing has been for the benefit of the upper class. Just because I say this is a Depression doesn't mean I'm depressing. :-) |
2011-12-28T19:07:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11763 |
| I think wages are stagnant, which is to say at least they aren't going down much. Yes, the length of the workweek is a good thing to keep an eye on and it isn't changing a lot right now - but I'll look at it when I get some time to see if there's a longer term trend. But yes, that poll on "quality" of jobs is interesting but so many things go into "quality" - I'll bet long hours is a problem. | 2011-12-28T16:46:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11758 |
| The data we have is "survey" data - the Bureau of Labor Statistics asks employers how many jobs they have or the Census Bureau asks people if they are working. There's not a lot of detail in it. It's not until the tax forms are all filed that the really useful details are sorted out. I can't find where the new jobs are being created other than the industry sector "professional and management" - that could mean a lot of things, but I think a lot of it is consulting. We'll see in a little while when more info comes out. | 2011-12-28T16:44:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/28/the-year-in-work/#comment-11757 |
| Amen! A solid policy fight over who reforms what and how would be really good for the state overall, I agree. The more BOTH parties connect with people and deliver a relevant politics the better. I always quote Wellstone (actually quoting Eleanor Roosevelt!) by saying that politics isn't about power or money or influence, it's about improving people's lives. Many Republicans scoff at that, largely because of the source. But if the responded to me by saying that "Sometimes, the best way to improve people's lives is to get out of their way!" I think we'd have something. |
2011-12-27T23:28:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11746 |
| Good point, Ron. He has influenced the state government well as a muckraker, and he had some big scores on that front. If he had stayed in that job he might have had a brilliant career to this day. But attempting to run the party's campaign as a muckraker just didn't work out - there had to be more, and there wasn't. It did work in 2010, but it didn't seem to make permanent change for a lot of reasons. | 2011-12-27T23:25:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11745 |
| I do expect vigorous opposition, and the DFL has to do a much better job of meeting it. But there's a big difference between a policy fight and a personal attack. A little bit of the personal stuff is to be expected, but there has to be some policy at the heart of it. I think the first party to stand clearly for a major reform program - of any kind - will do very well. | 2011-12-27T23:23:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11744 |
| Thank you. I think it's too late for you to keep the Legislature, but I welcome your trying if the Republican party becomes a party of genuine reform. I'd like to see what those "Republican Values" are - as long as they take more words to describe than "No!" to everything Gov. Dayton says. | 2011-12-26T23:04:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11735 |
| I don't know that Brodkorb is the same as the other "freeloaders", but you are right that an attitude of entitlement and elitism is at the heart of the "influence" model of social media. It has to be extinguished - but more importantly it IS being extinguished because it simply does not work. There are still those building sites around this concept, such as klout.com - but they are roundly and rightly being criticized by nearly everyone. The influence model is quite dead and the "freeloaders" are being kicked out. The internet is gradually becoming safe to be the open platform of equality that it needs to be. We'll see where it goes from here. But the "influence" model is dying quickly. It's a very good thing. |
2011-12-26T19:58:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11733 |
| We will see, and there could be a new career for him. But I think the Age of Anger is falling apart generally - that's something we'll have to see, of course, but I think we have seen it run its course. The Tea Party is a bigger threat to the Republican establishment than anything on the left at this point, so the incredible purge of Brodkorb may signal a new direction. Think of Romney vs. (Not Romney, currently Gingrich) and how that will play out nationally, and we'll see. As for examples of lefties who practice the same level of hate, you won't find any that are are virulent. But there are some bloggers who play the game that they shouldn't, although their numbers diminish all the time. MDE has incoming links (which help PageRank) that include many lefties who should have known better than to engage that fight in the first place. MDE was always better ignored - but the mainstream media could not leave it alone, nor could some lefties. That's what made Brodkorb, and eventually the Republicans had to purge him. That bigger story is one I'm letting sit for a bit, but it does have Shakespeare all over it! |
2011-12-26T19:18:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11730 |
| There's a taint about even appearing to be in the same category as stuff like that, isn't there? I don't blame you one bit. | 2011-12-26T19:13:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11729 |
| Yes, will not disagree with you there! | 2011-12-26T19:12:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11728 |
| I do not believe that what is practiced in these games played out in blogs and sometimes the press can be called "politics" (hence the quotes). They are largely irrelevant and pointless. When the mainstream press covers them at all they are doing everyone a tremendous disservice and should be called out for doing so. I completely agree that people are turned off by this nonsense,but it is a strategy used to suppress voter turnout via disgust - and low turnout always favors Republicans. That's why Democrats practicing the same strategy are idiots. | 2011-12-26T16:59:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11723 |
| The site was first registered in Feb 2005 - I looked it up on Whois. I will go with that. Yes, I could have said he was a jerk, but that's not what I want Barataria to be about. This is another angle, a larger lesson that hasn't been written about yet. That's my niche in the world. |
2011-12-26T16:56:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/26/influence/#comment-11722 |
| Ha! An excellent greeting for every season! :-) | 2011-12-23T22:12:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11692 |
| Laetum Sol Invictus to you, too! :-) (That's the greeting we worked up for the Solstice, but it's in Latin because of the Roman feast of the Sun God, aka "Invincible Sun".) | 2011-12-23T21:37:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11690 |
| Merry Christmas, though I have a feeling you won't be online for a few days! :-) | 2011-12-23T21:36:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11689 |
| I can imagine how bad it is for you - my GF has the same issue right now. Hope it isn't too bad - and be happy for the work! | 2011-12-23T21:35:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11688 |
| It's OK to say anything in Barataria, as long as you mean it! :-) Merry Christmas, Dale! | 2011-12-23T21:34:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/23/when-it-stops/#comment-11687 |
| Yes, the Roman Sun God (who probably is the one that inspired Christmas as we know it) had a feast day on the 25th. Laetum Sol Invictus! | 2011-12-22T17:56:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/21/dark-into-light/#comment-11675 |
| Happy Solstice! But I don't have any better greeting yet. It's not really a holiday that lends itself to a special greeting, sadly. We should work on it. Next year! :-) | 2011-12-21T21:46:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/21/dark-into-light/#comment-11654 |
| Today got dark early as well, which has been happening lately. Ug. Tonight, we have candles and fun! | 2011-12-21T21:45:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/21/dark-into-light/#comment-11653 |
| Happy Solstice to you, too! | 2011-12-21T21:44:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/21/dark-into-light/#comment-11652 |
| Thanks for the reminder on the anniversary - I will write on that, I think. As for revolution in North Korea, I simply cannot imagine the generals following a 27-or-so year old kid who inherited the gig from his Dad. It doesn't make any sense to me at all. So I would think that something is inevitable - possibly very soon. But what direction will it go? Hard to say, since we know zip about the actors. I only wish it went as smoothly as Yeltsin made it, but I can't see that happening. A mad dash for the borders as people flee a civil war is probably the best we can hope for - and that will be horrible. We shall see. Plan for the worst, hope for the best. |
2011-12-20T20:16:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11635 |
| This is a good time of year to appreciate what we have, isn't it? You said it very well, we have so much and we should give back. I hope we have the chance to help these wretched people soon. | 2011-12-20T20:12:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11634 |
| They certainly have. Unfortunately, it won't end soon. This will take time no matter what. | 2011-12-20T20:11:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11633 |
| Yes, that's the problem with times like these. It always gets worse before it gets better. | 2011-12-19T18:49:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11617 |
| Fair enough - but I think the stage is being set for more revolution around the world. Freedom is very much marching forward and the worst problems are being resolved. Will Korea take many years to play out? It's hard to believe it's taken this long, but it has to. I think we'll be hearing a lot more about it for a while now, and yes, that is what I like to get ahead of in the news cycles. I'll bet I'm not alone in the coming days. | 2011-12-19T17:06:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11614 |
| Thanks. That is what I wanted more than anything else. I do think there is a new era dawning, and it's being driven by the rise of "developing" nations. What that means we don't know yet, but I am certain that things will continue to change. | 2011-12-19T17:04:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/19/imagination/#comment-11613 |
| I doubt the Religious Right is popular, too, but opposition to them is not vocal at all. As a nation, we've been though spasms of fundamentalist Christian revival every couple of generations since the beginning. One of them in the 1760s was part of our separation from England - the Scots-Irish started becoming more hard-line Presbyterian and thus less English (creating the Baptist faith). The big revivals of the 1840 led to no Sunday mail delivery along with Mormonism and Seventh-Day Adventists. :-) So this is really a part of a cycle, but the consumerism ... well, it may calm down once we don't have any money. In a contest between Fundamentalist Christians and consumerism I'd hope for mutual destruction, to be honest. But that doesn't seem likely, especially given how much consumerism has been embraced by the same constitutency - something that I never understood, to be honest, outside of the Presbyterian roots. |
2011-12-18T17:42:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11597 |
| Haha! Happy generic sentiment to you, too. :-) | 2011-12-18T17:35:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11596 |
| Thanks! | 2011-12-16T21:41:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11571 |
| I agree completely! | 2011-12-16T21:41:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11570 |
| That is true, it is what we make of it - and a private matter. | 2011-12-16T21:20:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11569 |
| Thank you! What matter is what you believe and how you act on it! | 2011-12-16T21:19:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/16/solstice-reflections/#comment-11568 |
| Wow - this is one that I've tried to tackle and I'm not sure how far it will go. But I'm pretty sure that spirituality is not the exclusive domain of fundamentalists. The United Church of Christ has been pretty evangelical lately with their own style of open and community based faith, for example. I think that this is quietly catching on despite the noise that the harder line keeps preaching. But I'll agree that this movement will have to be a lot more vocal before it captures the imagination of popular culture the way fundamentalism has. | 2011-12-15T14:36:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11551 |
| It is very true that the decline in manufacturing started in the 60s - by the end of the decade the process we see more or less complete today was well under way. The "Archie Bunker" life you mentioned earlier was already very much under assault - hence the reactionary nature of that life/thought. I don't know why I didn't think of this earlier, but if Brasil really is ascendant right now (I've been predicting this for a decade!) we may have the source of the new arts we in the developed world are waiting for. There's always a chance something could come out of southeast Asia as well, but I think Brasil will feel more natural to us. Ready to Samba? :-) |
2011-12-15T14:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11550 |
| It's worth noting that Jack moved back to the City long ago. :-) But yes, let's think about the non-majority, non-middle class and what they might think. I think this will take me a while to digest, but it's a good idea. |
2011-12-14T23:11:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11538 |
| Good points, but the Depression won't last forever (it just seems like it). Some of this thinking came up while trying to look at where the new opportunities are going to happen. A lot of it will be decided by the next generation, so it's up to their values. I have a feeling that they are learning how to make do with a lot less. It's another angle on all this. | 2011-12-14T22:25:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11536 |
| I think you have a counter-argument that there has more or less always been a Romantic movement simultaneous with the entire postwar industrial experience (which I call the Age of Anxiety). I have considered this in the past, and your point is well taken. There have been bits and pieces of Romanticism always present in our culture, especially our love of rural life (even as we let it die off). The various counter-currents have been running at the same time, I admit, with some of them more powerful than others. What I'm looking for are signs that the Romantic view is going to dominate in some new form much as I see the "expert" hyper-specialized economy we're coming out of as a kind of Enlightenment model. This is a difficult argument to make well, especially since I want to use current language - which is very inadequate to describe what comes next, IMHO. That's why I thought I'd raise this as an open question. The lack of real Romanticism in art is evidence enough that we're not moving strongly this direction - at least not yet. But I do think that a truly decentralized world is likely to be more Romantic in many important ways no matter what. Just trying to predict the future, is all. :-) |
2011-12-14T20:44:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11532 |
| True, there was a Romantic Movement that worked alongside important achievements like Civil Rights. Where exactly that energy went is something I've spent my life trying to understand, to be honest. The animosity between liberals and unions has been a major hindrance to any kind of progress at all, but it doesn't fully explain what happened IMHO. What I'm looking for is a movement that really does change how people live in more substantial ways. Yes, organic foods and back-to-the-farm movements are a big part of that. Will these trends continue, or will they die out like the 1960s did? |
2011-12-14T19:29:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11528 |
| I saw that just after posting, yes! We have a lot of the makings for a solid Romantic Era but it hasn't come together quite yet. | 2011-12-14T17:55:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11525 |
| I will get into more later, this an attempt to bring back some old themes before I go forward with them. I want readers' input though, since I have written around this topic before. One topic I have not gotten into is how Romanticism was a response to Enlightenment - the belief that a thinking class could understand the world and make things better through nobless obligue. The way our world is falling apart - ripping apart the connections that made an industrialized hive of "experts" working in narrow fields appear efficient - is very much the way Romanticism got its start. I see many parallels today. But yes, I am looking for examples in art that back up the idea of a new Romantic Era. Without the arts I don't see this happening. |
2011-12-14T16:54:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/14/neo-romantic/#comment-11523 |
| Yes, a very good point. This is an after-school project that is fully supported by the Saint Paul District along with many other "Extended Day Learning" opportunities they have. They are really trying to do more than just standardized tests. A lot of credit has to go to Mark Mueller, George's math teacher and team coach, for pulling all this together. Very dedicated and creative guy who has made math a lot of fun! | 2011-12-12T20:00:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/12/first-lego-league/#comment-11500 |
| It is catching on - there are something like 120 going to the Minnesota State finals, which means there were thousands at the local level! This is a pretty big deal. | 2011-12-12T19:57:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/12/first-lego-league/#comment-11499 |
| I don't know of any video of a robot being put through its paces, no. I'll ask around. | 2011-12-12T19:56:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/12/first-lego-league/#comment-11498 |
| It was just a lot of fun - though a bit nerve-wracking for the kids. They got "into it", which was even more fun for us big kids, er, adults. :-) | 2011-12-12T18:21:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/12/first-lego-league/#comment-11494 |
| Thanks! | 2011-12-11T03:47:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/23/thanksgiving-3/#comment-11461 |
| The problem is that the amount of aid is so large it's more like Germany doing another Reunification ... or, I guess an Anschluss (bad images intended there). So they really can't do it alone. It would probably involve the US, China ... and maybe Brasil. Not something we were banking on. | 2011-12-09T23:20:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11455 |
| OK, I'll give you that he has some idea what happened, but he doesn't necessarily know where the money is or who has it. My guess would be either the Caymans or a complex swap involving Banko Industrial de Venezuela (my personal favorite because it involves Cuba) but it's only a guess. :-) And I am also pretty sure that this is far more embarassing to the guy than his cut of any money, too. He seems to know he has a lot. But ... it did sound pretty weird to hear him say "I dunno" in so many words, didn't it? | 2011-12-09T23:18:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11454 |
| Yes, that could happen again. When I say the Euro must print or die, I do mean that "die" is always an option. It's entirely up to them. However, that process would likely affect us as well - especially if we have financial houses run even somewhat as poorly as MF Global. I think we have to be ready to face what happens when JP Morgan implodes, for example. I do plan to revisit this post in the future. MF Global can't be the only bad actor, even if they are somewhat unusual (which I sorta doubt). |
2011-12-09T21:47:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11450 |
| Back in 2007, I was advocating junk silver (coins so worn they have only their silver value, not collectable) and canned tun. Seriously. Search for "junk silver and tuna" and you'll find it. :-) | 2011-12-09T21:44:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11449 |
| Short-sightedness is the real problem, yes, and no law will ever correct that. | 2011-12-09T18:59:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11446 |
| I think that is likely true, but that gives us a year to see how this plays out and what really needs to be done. I think nearly everyone agrees that there needs to be a wall between investment banking and commercial banking (ie, a new Glass-Steagall) but beyond that it's pretty open. MF Global will make the case for action - and the accompanying silence from Congress will probably help get them unelected, yes. | 2011-12-09T18:59:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11445 |
| I completely agree. The system we have now is based on audits, but they are apparently useless. It probably won't change until people question the whole industry - which they damned well should given how sloppy this one was. It's a "where there is smoke there is fire" thang - and boy is there a ton of smoke blown around in these audits! | 2011-12-09T15:58:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11440 |
| Oh, no, not at all! But we do know that there are at least two outside groups, lawyers and insurance companies, that have an interest in keeping these guys in check - and both are pretty powerful. It's something. I also believe that any public regulation has to start with a truly independent audit - that may be wishful thinking, but if investors get tired of all the BS there's always a chance that they'll either insist on such a system or just flee from these pirates until they get their act together. As for being criminals, we'll see if there are enough laws in place to make that a full-on reality in this case. If not, we may need new criminal laws to hold people accountable - I really don't know. We'll see. But there may be ways of getting around this "too big to fail" that don't involve just shoveling money at them because anything else could cause economic collapse. That's not to say we might not want to break up big companies like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, but even if we don't there may be ways to reign them in. But I guarantee you, it'll start with lawyers and insurance companies whether we like it or not. |
2011-12-09T15:45:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/09/when-failure-is-an-option/#comment-11438 |
| Yes, that is what most people think. It is a bit strange, but it is the market, | 2011-12-08T22:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11420 |
| Yes, Girl's Hockey is only about 10 years old around here | 2011-12-07T22:42:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/07/hockey/#comment-11414 |
| I completely agree - the institutions might need to survive, but everyone at the top should damned well have the fear of the DA deep in their black hearts. There may not be enforceable laws on the books that would make this a real possibility, but if I was looking at reform I would make sure that this was a part of any new system. | 2011-12-07T22:08:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11412 |
| Time to tell the world - not everyone up here can play hockey! :-) It's been a fun sport to get to know, I have had a lot of fun with it. | 2011-12-07T22:06:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/07/hockey/#comment-11411 |
| I think people are aware that the Wild are good, but I'm not sure how many know that they are leading the NHL right now. Absolutely on fire! It does make the Vikes troubles (and the Twins, for that matter) look pretty bad. I really don't see a new stadium in the cards. | 2011-12-07T17:35:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/07/hockey/#comment-11404 |
| No, I've never played. I have never even skated! But it does seem like a good sport, if awfully quick for me. I'm still more of a football guy at heart, but I respect hockey the more I see of it. | 2011-12-07T17:33:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/07/hockey/#comment-11403 |
| There is a political restructuring going on as well as a cultural one - those are harder to quantify, but they are long overdue. People are returning to cities, living closer together, and lowering expectation. In politics things are moving so damned slowly, but we can see how the old left/right nonsense is collapsing finally - and Ron Paul has a lot more in common with Bernie Sanders. Things are moving - but we have to give it a big shove. | 2011-12-06T22:01:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11394 |
| Dale, that whole "New Normal" thing always bothered me. There might be some very permanent changes, but the problem at hand has always been a relatively unusual event in US history - not unique, unusual. The last time we went through this sort off things was 80 years ago, so no one is alive that really remembers it. To me, the key issue has always been the transformation from one economy to another (which I call Restructuring). That doesn't mean we'll be in this downer forever - but that the next upturn won't be something we can totally anticipate right now. Honestly, who thought to buy AOL in 1985 (or whenever it was founded)? Who thought to sell it right at the peak in the late 90s? |
2011-12-05T21:00:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11389 |
| I think their position is increasingly leaving them isolated. The sight of reasonably priced 40 MPG cars shows that we're finally getting real, I think. | 2011-12-05T19:10:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11386 |
| That's one way to look at it. | 2011-12-05T18:23:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11384 |
| That is a particularly stupid li'l slogan/chant/whatever. It would be good to have a political cycle without stupid sayings, but I think that's unlikely. | 2011-12-05T18:10:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11382 |
| Anna, I don't know why no one else talks about Restructuring. It seems damned obvious to me. Instead, we went from "Recovery will happen" to a lot of silence. The pieces of a real Recovery are starting to fall into place but there is no framework to talk about them - and how to encourage this process! It's maddening to me. You are right about retraining, but since we don't really know what skills will be in demand in a few years it's hard to emphasize that part of it, IMHO. I've been trying to figure out what sectors of the economy are producing jobs right now, but they are a bit mysterious. We do know that big companies and state/local governments have been shedding jobs, but who is creating the new ones that appear to be increasing? Dunno. The financial world is a real mess and they simply refuse to reform. As much as I do appreciate the Fed keeping us out of a serious Depression (ie, more like 1929) I do think that the "moral hazard" has proven to be real and the need for reform/Restructuring has not been as obvious to them as it should be. The sense of urgency has also been a casualty of the Fed keeping things on as even a keel as they could, which is the real problem, IMHO. That's probably why we have yet to really hear about Restructuring. |
2011-12-05T16:18:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/05/fueling-the-future/#comment-11380 |
| I don't know if the stock market is worth paying attention to (they tend to think pretty short term!) but I agree that it's worth keeping our fingers crossed. Just noticed that in a lot of news articles on economic and business topics that the term "Recovery" is strangely missing these days. We're no longer waiting for it, I guess. The term "Restructuring" has yet to make it to the popular press, however. We'll see. :-) |
2011-12-04T22:12:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11368 |
| We don't really disagree here, but the difference in emphasis makes our arguments pretty starkly opposed. There is a trend that my 78 year old Dad calls "The General Inflation of Everything" which describes how everything has gotten so much more during his life. Housing is a big part of that, for sure. To me, it's always a matter of balance. I live in a big house, I really do, but it's 150 years old and I restored it myself. I'm a bit loathe to say that others can't have what I do. It would be hypocritical. However, we obviously cannot keep making everything bigger over time - there has to be a limit. And I also agree on the 30 year mortgage, which seems very arcane. As for the "No shopping", the cute li'l poem I wrote was very careful to not demonize retailers per se. I want to see a sense of balance restored to our lives - one that includes time for families, contemplation, spirituality, and so on. Does that mean no shopping at all? No, not at all - but we're so far out of whack on this score that it's hard to not take a hard line versus what we have today. Perhaps I overdid it on the Monday previous, but youknowwhatImean. I am a city person. I like multiple family homes or at least houses stitched tightly together in a fabric that includes a strong community. Part of that is the business strip within walking distance and access to transit that whisks people off to bigger opportunities. There are so many ways this life has been devalued over the last 60-some years that it's hard to know where to start. But it is a good life - rich, exciting, and full of support when things get bad. I haven't written about cities as a concept in a long time, but I think I'll return to that in a bit. It's time. Thanks for your patience with my neo-Amish tendencies, tho - your arguments make mine better over time. :-) |
2011-12-03T15:53:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11362 |
| I think this does relate to acquiring new skills in a flexible economy. Information is one thing, but the faster you can absorb that information and put it into a framework that makes sense for you (your experience, style of learning, methods of remembering, etc) the sooner it can become a skill. To me it's like the critical difference between science and technology - one is learning, the other is skill (techne in Greek). I think you are right at the heart of the problem here! | 2011-12-03T15:41:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/16/the-next-economy/#comment-11360 |
| Hadn't seen that, thanks. I think it's time for me to get together my financial regulation plan. It does start with Glass-Steagall II (The Wrath from Cons) and goes out from there. | 2011-12-02T23:39:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11355 |
| You are right, that is the problem. The money has to get out in the economy, and so far we haven't even come close to making that happen. Keep in mind that in the last Depression it was the government that was getting money out, not the Fed. They're better at it, I think. | 2011-12-02T21:44:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11353 |
| Fair enough - when it really turns around we can all be a lot happier. Especially when there is upward pressure on wages, as Jack noted earlier. But I think that's just over the horizon now - as long as nothing screws it up. Why is the headline unemployment rate used so much? I think this is one of those annoying things in our world that would just go away if everyone stopped paying attention to it. Something like the Kardashians. |
2011-12-02T18:09:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11350 |
| That is a good point - we have to restructure the part of the economy that did the most to create the Depression in the first place. That would take a lot more political will than we have - or a real meltdown, possibly both. The cash is there and we can always print more, but getting it out to the right places is going to be tricky. Identifying growth opportunities will help, which I do think will start happening soon, but if they can't/won't deliver the capital needed you're right. Can we develop a plan here? What do you think needs to be done to reform finance? I've had a few ideas but it's not really a plan yet. |
2011-12-02T17:57:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11348 |
| Yes, optimism has to be tempered by the harsh reality. I guess what I'm trying to say is that we have definitely seen the bottom and we're in the process of building the foundation for a genuine recovery. I know that the popular press has a tendency to talk about "recovery" as if it's an event that just happens, but after a credit-bust Depression like we've been in there is always a restructuring. That takes a lot more time and effort, and our leadership at the top has been pathetic at best (leadership in politics, business, academics, the whole shebang). I see us turning a corner, but there is definitely a long way to go. | 2011-12-02T17:53:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/12/02/catching-up/#comment-11347 |
| Yes, I expect at least close to 200k jobs will have been created - the ADP report has been pretty close lately. The report today was the Unemployment Initial Claims, which is stuck at 400k per week (or a shade less). That seems like a lot of jobs lost - 1.7M per month - but other places are apparently creating more than that. It would mean that 1.9M are to be created is the BLS "official" report comes in where the ADP estimate was. That means that of the 131M jobs, each month 1.3% are being lost and 1,5% are being created. Both of those numbers are rather large, and the growth is in the relatively small difference between them. But ... it would mean that net growth is accelerating just a bit. IF it all comes in that way, that is. Stay tuned! :-) (How often have I said "stay tuned" lately? Far too much?) |
2011-12-01T22:04:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11337 |
| Just so that everyone knows - the November jobs report due out on Friday will be excellent. The ADP figures have been pretty close lately and they are amazing. I was expecting a decent report but not this good: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-30/u-s-companies-add-more-than-estimated-206-000-jobs-in-november-adp-says.html See how Barataria tries to tell you what tomorrow's news will be? That whole Fed action stuff was here in April 2010, no point in covering that. :-) |
2011-11-30T22:55:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11332 |
| I think we've passed the bottom - barring a big disaster coming from Europe, that is. We'll see. | 2011-11-30T21:54:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11331 |
| That is a problem. What we can say is that wages are unlikely to rise until there is little unemployment. There is a chance that wages aren't falling too badly because there are shortages of skilled workers in some areas, however. | 2011-11-30T21:54:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11330 |
| Barring a major credit meltdown, I think there is reason to believe this will accelerate. Note that there is substantial evidence that there are new opportunities out there - but where are they? Why don't we hear about the new sectors and kinds of employment? Once those become "hot" the money that is lying around waiting for investment opportunities will flow again and things should pick up. It's a matter of identifying the Next Economy so that it can move forward, IMHO. | 2011-11-30T17:35:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11325 |
| Yes, that is what I am saying in a nutshell. Job growth is coming from new areas now as the next economy takes the place of the old one. I think we can say we've turned the corner. The old economy continues to shed jobs rapidly but there is still a net gain. | 2011-11-30T17:34:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11324 |
| Yes, there is a point where we finish off the restructuring by deciding as a people how we want to live our lives. Reduced workweeks are definitely something we should consider to spread the work around. But I still think that reducing the overhead per employee is very important as we move that direction - which is to say moving to a single payer health system and taking the tab off of employer's backs. It would make major changes like a reduced workweek much more affordable. | 2011-11-30T17:32:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/30/where-are-the-jobs/#comment-11323 |
| Things are coming to a head soon, I think, and we'll see. It may have to get very bad before it gets better. A total collapse might be necessary before we fix anything. That's the lesson of Rome, IMHO - not the final collapse, the many times it fell apart but was able to rebound (Vespasian!). | 2011-11-29T22:51:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11311 |
| That's just it - Germany senses that this isn't the only time they'll be on the hook. I think a real permanent solution that puts this behind us would be acceptable to Germany, but they see it happening again. The member nations were supposed to stay within deficit targets and so on, but Greece found a way out - they simply lied about the state of their finances and everyone let them in the interest of unity. Germany is pretty uptight about things because there is a long habit of looking the other way that they want to break. Keep in mind, however, that while it's easy to fault Greece for bad behavior they were under military dictatorship until (I think) 1974 so they have always been a special case. Rather than codify that special case everyone just looked the other way. No more. But the attitude in general comes off as pretty damned cavalier. The real story in the Bloomberg piece on how much the Fed loaned to JPM, etc, is that they would not have done that without a certain level of panic behind closed doors. Publicly, they want us to think they have it all under control, but their actions betray a very different state of things. And the Minneapolis Fed Governor didn't even know how much they were doing? That's serious "hair on fire" panic, IMHO. The cavalier attitude is what we get publicly and yes, it should be galling. |
2011-11-28T22:47:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11303 |
| Well, I can't think of what else it comes down to. I was going to get into the politics of this more later, as I ran out of room in the explanation - but the comments have taken over. Just as well. | 2011-11-28T22:38:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11302 |
| You're right, it is corrupt. The people who pay for it are those who work for a living (given how tax rates fall at upper incomes). The whole system is now set up to reward influence at the expense of actually working. Corruption at its worst, IMHO. | 2011-11-28T20:57:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11298 |
| My understanding is always a bit limited, but I'll do my best. Germany appears to be opposed to the ECB intervening dramatically because ECB lacks the charter and procedures to do so and because the Germans want fiscal prudence in the nations getting bailed out as a price. What they really fear is that ECB (and by extension Germany) is turned into a giant piggy bank that can be raided more or less constantly to prop up nations that can't or don't bother to manage themselves. They have become sticklers for government control and a limited ECB charter until they have everything in place. How bad are French banks? I didn't include this because I have no idea. Société Générale has been accused of being on the edge of collapse, but is now suing the UK paper that printed that story. Some have backed that story, others refuted it. It's a big mystery at this point. The only clue we have is that there appears to be a flight away from French paper, meaning that at least some people who know are nervous. But then again, they probably should be no matter what. How deep is Goldman into this? They are into everything, so they are in very deep. What we have no idea of is how many Credit Default Swaps they sold against whatever position they or anyone else has. Those derrivatives are the real problem waiting out there once there is a default, and we won't know until it happens. Scratch that - based on experience so far, we'll know about 3 years later. I have a gut feeling that JPM is in very, very deep and that MF Global was just a front for them, but this is totally unsubstantiated. |
2011-11-28T20:52:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11297 |
| I don't know what to do about sovereign nations, but that's up to the Eurozone. As for big banks, I have said all along that the FDIC has the right model. They are funded by insurance premiums assessed on all the institutions, but if they need more they can borrow it from the Feds and pay it back with higher premiums going forward. When an institution fails, they swoop in and take it over, completely eliminating the old management and re-opening within days (sometimes it all goes down over the weekend). There is usually a forced bankruptcy, meaning that shareholders get nothing and all the golden parachutes are wiped out. Cold, clean, and professional - the institution remains but the people who ran it into the ground are out. The only other thing I'd like to see is more emphasis on possible criminal charges for mismanagement. Certainly, that won't happen all the time, but that's OK. The point is that there should be some personal risk for those at the top (they at least lose all income and pension) even if the institution remains. And it should pay for itself - the industry has to shoulder the risk, not the taxpayer. |
2011-11-28T17:35:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11292 |
| We don't know what the total worldwide tab will be, but it's looking like it will wind up at least $20 trillion before this is over. We could write it $20,000,000,000,000 to show how big it is, but ... wow ... | 2011-11-28T17:31:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/28/moral-hazard/#comment-11291 |
| A this point, ya never know. :-) | 2011-11-27T03:06:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/25/black-friday/#comment-11263 |
| Thanks! | 2011-11-26T18:29:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/25/black-friday/#comment-11256 |
| Thanks, everyone! This took me a little longer to write, and I was thinking about it a lot last night. A little "Nightmare Before Christmas", a bit of "The Lorax", and a good dose of Silverstein for good measure. I love doing kitschy poems like this, but the effort in thought and two hours to write 'em is a bit much without pay at the end. :-) | 2011-11-25T20:00:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/25/black-friday/#comment-11251 |
| It is appalling, isn't it? There is almost a conspiracy to eliminate Thanksgiving from our calendar. The only possible response is to ignore ALL of the hype and have a good holiday, the way it should be. Note to the Christian Right - you might be surprised how many of us "Liberals" agree that the morals of this nation are under attack - but it has nothing to do with people who are different from the mainstream. The attack comes from commercialism and greed. You want to know who to blame? Look in the mirror and be confident that you aren't part of the problem, then we can talk. We can talk about a lot more than you might think. |
2011-11-23T19:13:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/23/thanksgiving-3/#comment-11229 |
| Thanks - it's a small mission of mine to improve the status of Thanksgiving, a truly great holiday. | 2011-11-23T19:11:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/23/thanksgiving-3/#comment-11228 |
| Thanks - I decided not to repeat either of them but to try to bind them together into one. Readers don't usually follow links, but it's worth a try. I wonder if this series of essays should be put together into some kind of book - and this is a start of that thinking, really. | 2011-11-23T16:37:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/23/thanksgiving-3/#comment-11222 |
| Thanks | 2011-11-22T22:23:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11204 |
| Thanks, that's what I hope for more than anything. It's too important of a holiday to be lost the way it is. | 2011-11-21T20:51:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11179 |
| That's another way to do it! As long as Thanksgiving doesn't get lost in the mad dash, I'm OK with it. :-) | 2011-11-21T19:38:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11177 |
| Amen. I think that's what it's really all about. | 2011-11-21T19:14:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11175 |
| It makes me wonder what other people think is important, to be honest. And how they reached their conclusions. | 2011-11-21T18:06:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11171 |
| Your plan is a great one, too! Just take it easy and enjoy it. | 2011-11-21T18:05:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11170 |
| Thanks. It does seem very insane to me - I never understood the rush for material things at all. Dunno. | 2011-11-21T18:04:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/21/buy-little-buy-small/#comment-11169 |
| Pretty much, yes. More a question of who gets stuck with the tab this time, and in Europe they're fighting it pretty hard. | 2011-11-19T20:37:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11132 |
| Thanks. I always enjoyed making things more than just walking around telling people what to do. It's why I got my degree in engineering. Rubber products may not seem like much, but coming out of the lab dead tired with holes in my clothes and a kilo or two of experimental polymer is actually quite a lot of fun. Making music boxes was pretty fun, too, but far less lucrative. It's good to have something to show at the end of the day and say, "This is what I do". Sadly, there's not much work like that around. |
2011-11-18T23:27:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11113 |
| Yup. And as others have pointed out, we're probably screwed along with them unless we get on top of this. | 2011-11-18T18:56:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11106 |
| I think you're also making the case for "Why we should care" here. Yes, MF Global is the tip of the ol' iceberg. Why other financial institutions are so quick to go after them remains a bit of a mystery, but it's clear that at least part of it has to deal with Corzine's political connections and appearance of special favors (such as being a primary on T-Bills). I suspect, however, that they are all trying to distance themselves and their practices from the obvious poster child for more regulation, ie, "Methinks thou doth protest too much". But this does very much tie into the Euro problem and probably gives everyone a reason to care how MF Global unwinds from their insane position. |
2011-11-18T18:20:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11103 |
| An excellent point! I was so wrapped up in this one that I neglected the "Why we should care" at the start. I hope it's pretty obvious by the time you get to the end, at least. Yes, the alarm bells should be pretty loud - I'm doing my part. | 2011-11-18T18:16:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/18/print-or-die/#comment-11102 |
| A good point. :-) | 2011-11-17T22:46:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-11075 |
| Thanks! It was gratifying to have a solid majority - the exact math has led to an interesting discussion on google+ about what to use as the demoninator, since the "official" 58/42 leaves off those who were dropped for lack of a second choice. But it was a good win all the same. | 2011-11-17T13:50:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11065 |
| This was one of my first efforts with a video-heavy presentation - the very first being http://MediaHare.com , which is not as big. I think it worked, but I should have organized it better from the start. It got away from me pretty quickly as the size went nuts. I know what I would have done differently. | 2011-11-17T13:48:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11064 |
| I think that most groups have these endorsements made by a central group that is "into it" and rarely poll their members. In this case, the Realtors that are most into local politics are usually landlords, and Dave has a reputation for not being ... friendly to them. The Ward still has a lot of houses that have gone rental and relations between the rental world and homeowners is always a bit tense. | 2011-11-17T13:46:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11063 |
| Thanks, Kris. I was there to serve mainly, that was my job. I enjoy that very much. | 2011-11-17T13:43:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11062 |
| That particular twitter feed really reeks of the standard Republican line - but the candidate failed to get 10-12%, which is the Republican percentage of the voters in this Ward. So it was a dismal failure by any measure. But I'm certain that IRV accentuated that because the other negative messages also did poorly. | 2011-11-16T22:15:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11044 |
| [blush!] Thank you! But my role was pretty small overall. It takes a ton of work shared by many to make a campaign work. I would never take credit for what everyone else did. | 2011-11-16T18:01:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11039 |
| Kris, I did miss you! Sorry about that. Was a big night, had so many people to thank. Makes me wonder who else I missed! There is a real irony here with IRV. I always said that if this is what the voters want, it's what we will go with. It appears to have worked a lot better than I expected right out of the box, so whatever. :-) |
2011-11-16T18:00:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11038 |
| Jim, it's like anything else in marketing - if you try to be too clever you'll fail. You cannot say two different things to two different groups and not expect that word will get out that you were two-faced. Period. You can, however, emphasize different things between the pieces. For example, we talked a lot about the Schmidt Brewery redevelopment on West Seventh, but tended to talk a lot more about Pedro Park and developments in Lowertown for Downtown. On the website and in some later pieces we had the highlights of ALL the great projects going on around the Ward, but we tried to tell people about what we thought would matter most to them. Same for the issue pieces. Honestly, I can't think of a potential conflict between them because we never even got close to having one. We kept it real and genuine all the time. |
2011-11-16T17:13:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11035 |
| Thanks! | 2011-11-16T17:08:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/16/election-recap/#comment-11034 |
| That's what I'm thinking, too. Private deliberations will help just the way they did historically. Good point on Mason - as long as we have someone like him who can publicly correct the flaws in the private bill we'll be OK. But that is such a different process I really don't have a lot of hope for a final bill (until I see it and how that process plays out!). | 2011-11-16T14:18:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-11024 |
| That's what I'm thinking, too. But you never know - Congress might be running so scared that they actually do pass something if it's sitting in front of them. My understanding is that procedurally whatever comes out of the Super Committee will go right to the floor and bypass the committee process, which is good. | 2011-11-15T22:45:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-11007 |
| There is little doubt in my mind that Obama has control at this stage, especially given the low ratings for Congress. I think he'll hold them to this process, more or less erasing the mistake he made by not embracing Simpson-Bowles a year ago. But that's behind us. Once again, I think the key for those of us not in elected office is to keep the profile of this "process" as high as possible so that we can hold Congress responsible for their failure to act. |
2011-11-14T22:42:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-10987 |
| That has been talked about, but Obama is firm that it not be removed. I think he finally has some leverage on the Republicans and intends to use it. Remember, automatic cuts come from the military, too ... | 2011-11-14T22:39:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-10986 |
| I am hopeful, but not in this process. I think that the time for action has been clearly marked, and that's a good thing in itself. | 2011-11-14T18:58:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-10983 |
| This will play out and raise the profile of the need for a process - if they fail, I think we can expect something to come of it one way or the other. But it may take a lot of activism to force it. | 2011-11-14T18:57:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/14/super-committee/#comment-10982 |
| They were a bad actor and I think they got away with it because they served a purpose for everyone else. But that may be yesterday very shortly. There will be more scrutiny, at least, and probably more regulation. They have it coming after this. I think three questions remain at this point - What was JPM doing in all this, esp. regarding the mixing of accounts? Where was PWC, the auditor, when all this was happening? And why did they bet so hard on something so stupid - as if they really thought the fix was in Eurojunk? Unless we can answer these questions in a way that makes it clear that there is not an industry-wide problem, there will be more action. And I think the issue with PWC alone needs to be mined much more heavily - how can audited companies have constant systemic problems like this and still get a PWC seal of approval? |
2011-11-12T21:38:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10969 |
| No argument here - that's what I've been up to for a long time. I think that regular people are interested in the truth and are willing to read a lot more stuff critically. There's a reason Barataria has become successful and a lot of it has to do with people like you who make this into a rich conversation - something much better than a lot of signs and slogans. | 2011-11-12T21:34:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10968 |
| I have been wondering about him, too because someone literally bet the company that Eurobonds would be paid off at face value - a completely ridiculous idea if ever there was one. And I do wonder what happened when he was Gov - something went horribly wrong there. So I was going to include a lot more about Corzine in this piece but it seems to me that there is something going on that I sure don't understand. | 2011-11-11T19:47:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10963 |
| I think JP Morgan is a pretty good sign of trouble, generally. :-) | 2011-11-11T19:34:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10961 |
| You're right, there have to be more of these. A good wave would get even this congress to act, I'm sure. | 2011-11-11T17:03:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10958 |
| Well, that's just an MF shame! (sorry, the jokes just write themselves) | 2011-11-11T17:02:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/11/poster-child/#comment-10957 |
| This will all be decided by about 1PM on Monday. They have to give the campaigns time to have observers in place so that the counting of 2nd place votes goes over without a hitch. It's much like a recount in procedure. This is an analysis I worked up for another site. It's very likely Dave has won, but we won't know until Monday. ----------------------- While we wait for the final results, here are some other ways to look at it. Here are the percents of voters that picked the candidate for either 1st or 2nd place (does not add up to 100% !) Dave 57% Ivey 51% Hosko 42% Dave is clearly the choice of the Ward by this measure. But there's more to it than that. If you take away the voters who had no second place pick (1,482 votes, or 28%) then Dave's 1st place voters picked at least 597 second place people - and if they picked an average number of 2nds they picked 1,504. Ivey needs 644 votes in the next rounds to catch Dave, but many of his 1,281 2nd place votes are from people who voted for Dave 1st. It's very unlikely he has enough 2nd place votes to catch Dave no matter what if you assume that those who picked Dave 1st are likely to have picked Ivey 2nd. Another interesting stat - Ivey did get 33% of the 2nd place votes among people who could possibly give him a 2nd (that is, didn't vote for him 1st) but Dave was not far behind with 29%. Hosko was further back with 22% of those who could have picked him 2nd. So it's very likely that Dave will win this - Ivey didn't do that much better among 2nd choices and has a lot more to make up. Hosko has a much bigger hill to climb and his chance is very small. |
2011-11-10T15:51:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10949 |
| Right. They are doing one thing and doing it well. They are not the bailout bank - and they really can't be. That's up to Germany to bail out everyone - or so it seems. This doesn't make a lot of sense to most of us in the USofA, but it's the reality. I do agree that they may well have to reduce rates again when it all hits the fan, so they may yet be part of the solution - but not really on purpose. | 2011-11-09T22:08:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/09/euro-contrast/#comment-10945 |
| Yes, that is true. We definitely need more disclosure at the least. The last time we got it the bill was sponsored in the House by Ron Paul and in the Senate by Bernie Sanders - that tells you something about the politics of getting that to happen. And the result was breathtaking - I covered it last December in a piece linked above. I do agree completely that more openness is very important, as are checks and balances more like the Federal Government itself (as I have also written). But I hold that at its root our system will beat theirs anytime in a crisis - and there is reason to believe that globalism and new economic theories are going to dramatically increase the number of financial crisis that need attention. |
2011-11-09T18:08:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/09/euro-contrast/#comment-10942 |
| Well, it might. Corporate profits are what usually drives the stock market, and they are not bad right now. A lot of my friends on the Left will say that these profits are a bad thing, but they have been leading into something like a mild expansion and the need for more employees - which is getting a bit stronger all the time (though it is still very weak). So if the market is watching corporate profits and a stable if slowly improving job picture, it should rebound. If it becomes convinced that Euroland will take down the developed world it'll stay down. Something tells me that MF Global is a bigger story for us because it reminds us how Europe affects us here in the USofA - and then we start to care about Italy, a nation whose internal politics (let alone EU politics) is utterly unfathomable to us. That's a good way to cause worry. Justified worry? The short answer is "No", but the long answer is "Yes". :-) |
2011-11-09T17:38:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/09/euro-contrast/#comment-10940 |
| You know, I could have saved about 700 words by saying it that way. :-) The USofA is able to put off a reckoning, yes, but that does not necessarily mean that we meet the same fate later. A lot depends on what we do with the time we can buy. Given that we know there are major transformations going on in our economy we can use our (still) good credit and mechanisms for borrowing to get us there. I agree, however, that simply maintaining the spending spree only gets us to the same place slower - which is mostly what I think we've done over the first decade of this Managed Depression. |
2011-11-09T17:34:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/09/euro-contrast/#comment-10939 |
| It is going to happen, Pat. It's been a long haul, but it will be there. | 2011-11-08T14:42:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10921 |
| Thanks, Jack. There are a lot of stories like that. My ex-wife Deb lives in one of the townhomes in the "Brewery Breakthrough" where the Federation rehabbed the entire neighborhood at once - with a ton of help from Dave. None of this would have happened without him. We need him at least long enough to finish Little Bohemia and the Schmidt Brewery - and, I hope, the Pioneer/Endicott downtown! | 2011-11-07T19:53:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10916 |
| Thanks! Dave is a great guy personally as well. Tough stands have cost him over the years, but you have to expect that. It's always close in this Ward no matter what because of the tremendous diversity, too. | 2011-11-07T17:14:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10914 |
| Yes, it's a 5-way IRV (Instant Runoff) vote, so it's hard to know just what will happen. I think we should all be prepared for a good lead going into the second ballot for Dave, but it would be so great to avoid that procedure. It's Saint Paul's first time with IRV so nearly anything can happen. | 2011-11-07T17:13:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10913 |
| Thank you! There are many issues that matter to just one neighborhood that it takes a City Councilmember to help solve, and that's what Dave does best. Doesn't make the news very often, but it's very important to the city. Not exactly a glamorous job by any stretch, but it has to get done. | 2011-11-07T16:22:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/07/dave-thune/#comment-10910 |
| As a Miami native, I have a theory that everything bad in the world goes through Miami at some point. My daughter actually challenges me at times to find the connection when a story hits - and I usually do find the connection. In the case of FDR in Bayfront Park on that fateful day, we all dodged a bullet. It was, indeed, amazing. History is an amazing master. | 2011-11-05T00:17:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10891 |
| Sometimes, I think my role is to be the little boy who says, "The Emperor is naked - and I think we can see why the Empress has a thang goin' on the side, too!"" :-) A really dumb question that can't be answered easily is a question that has to be asked, at least once in a while. A time of crisis like this may seem like the last point in history to do it, but we made it this far without asking it. Might be good to know. | 2011-11-04T18:57:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10889 |
| Good analogy. As for just starting over, that's what the "New Deal" was all about - the hand had played out and it was time to shuffle the cards and start over. Ideally you do this in an orderly way, but if governments and banks can't make it happen it probably will on its own. But ... I think we'd prefer to not go through another Depression of 1929. If we really did learn anything - and we really can have a "Managed Depression" - it would be to avoid that. Let's see how smart we really are. | 2011-11-04T18:55:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10888 |
| It seems pretty consistent, yes. The greatest expansions always come at a time when the whole population sees its life improving. | 2011-11-04T17:38:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10885 |
| Thanks - but I have to try! :-) It's a very important concept because money itself is nothing more than our ability to manage it. Forget all the political philosophies out there - the most important thing that government can do to keep the economy on an even keel is a firm hand on the tiller. That is what has gone wrong lately - on both left and right. | 2011-11-04T15:53:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/04/what-is-money/#comment-10882 |
| Dale, people could also go to jail and, I would think, be sued for past pay when they were running something into the ground. I don't see any reason why the institution can remain but everyone is gone and perhaps facing serious penalties. It would make me feel a lot better about bailing out an institution. | 2011-11-02T22:33:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10867 |
| When I was in Burghausen, Bavaria, they had "French Week". People came over from their sister city in France and the whole town went Franch- menus were substituted, people spoke French to each other, and so on. It was fun! I asked the owner of the Hotel Post where I was staying, Herr Mitterer, about the whole event. He was very enthusiastic. So I asked about the whole EU thing, if that had a future. "It has to," he told me, "We've seen the alternative." |
2011-11-02T20:55:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10863 |
| The efforts in Europe are really heating up - it's not just Greece that is resisting the bailouts, it's everyone. I have to say that as much as I decry socialized risk for private profit in the US, the Europeans have been way ahead of us on this scale for a long time - and people are really sick of it. | 2011-11-02T18:45:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10857 |
| Well, eventually we would, but all the gizmos and gadgets bought on credit would see their sales plummet, meaning that nearly everyone working retail would be out of a job. Same for restaurants. In the last Depression we didn't have the reliance on credit that we do today so this time it could actually be a lot worse. Other than that, we do reach a point where default doesn't sound so bad after all. Beats the constant crisis of the day. |
2011-11-02T17:08:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10854 |
| Interesting theory, and it makes some sense. i was chalking it up to cowardice, but sometimes a cowardly act needs a bit of cover. :-) Thing is that the system has become vulnerable to so many little players (like Greece) holding everyone hostage - we can expect a lot more of this in the future. | 2011-11-02T16:34:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/11/02/i-read-the-news-today-oh-boy/#comment-10852 |
| Hey, we're the same age! :-) I remember Halloween as a kid the way I remember everything in Miami of the early 1970s - it was paradise. Then, in the late 70s and early 80s it went to Hell awfully fast. But as a kid it was just one perfect day after another and not a worry in the world. Halloween as another selling season seems inevitable, but it would be nice if it wasn't quite so crass. I was talking with a cook at a client's place who is from Mexico about Dia de los Muertos, and this is the first year that his little girl will offer something for her recently departed abuelita (grandma). It makes our Anglo holiday look like a total sham. |
2011-11-02T15:22:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10850 |
| Jan, I had a few dozen. A nearly 100% "Thank you!" rate, so we know there's a Depression on! :-) Good kids in the 'hood, especially from the projects down the street. It's a great holiday, time to see all the kids before Winter sets in. | 2011-11-01T16:43:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10839 |
| Yes, that is the "right" way to spell it, but ... I got lazy. :-) I think that the anti-Halloween feelings are pretty ancient, and are pretty standard anti-Wiccan stuff. But you're right that they did go away rather completely as Samhain was absorbed into All Soul's Day. Why bring it up now? I dunno. To each his own. |
2011-10-31T21:28:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10834 |
| I agree, Jim, but when I went digging into this I was surprised to find out that it's gotten more sanitized with time. Well, not surprised, so much ,as dismayed. We like to think people were proper and orderly back when, but it turns out we're much more tame by comparison. Perhaps I should have done a piece on how we've turned into zombies? :-) | 2011-10-31T16:59:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10830 |
| Thanks very much! | 2011-10-31T16:39:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10828 |
| We've come a long way - I guess with today's streetlights everywhere it's not as important. :-) | 2011-10-31T15:11:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10826 |
| Welcome, and thanks! It is a bit odd, isn't it? It's supposed to be a day of chaos, but .... that's too much fun, eh? | 2011-10-31T15:10:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/31/this-is-halloween/#comment-10825 |
| Chelsea: Sorry I was slow to see your post! Thank you, I would love to be part of a teach-in on economy and politics. We on the left naturally are wary of economics - it is the study of money, not the people and their efforts that make the true wealth of any nation. But we have to undersand what's being done to us so we can get ahold of it and make it work for us for a change. Thank you, I am looking forward to the St Paul effort - act locally! | 2011-10-30T04:07:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10811 |
| We spend more on defense than the rest of the world combined, or nearly so. I think that's what the Dems should trade for entitlement reform, the more I think of it. I once calculated that the roughly $720B we spend on defense (no one is entirely sure what the various wars are costing us) coube be cut by 1/3 and we'd still be at an inflation-adjusted level equivalent to 1988- ie, the height of Reagan's Cold War binge. So there - that's the trade-off for a Grand Deal that involves entitlement reform - and possibly tax reform as well. We could easily get ourselves to some serious deficit reduction in the process as well. |
2011-10-29T22:45:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10809 |
| Sheryl, it is a dangerous thing but it is very common. Our view of history is always shaped by our own times, no matter who or where we are. What we see must serve someone's purpose to keep coming back as strongly as it has the last 50 years or so - that's really what I'm getting at. | 2011-10-29T20:46:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10807 |
| Jack, I must've had a good teacher, too, but I can't remember exactly why. It just stuck, or sort of did at first and then grew. I don't really care if they were written by one guy or many, but ... the historical evidence it was one man is pretty heavy. What matters most, to me, is that these works have a heavy weight on our culture and our language, caught right in the middle of a huge transition to Modern English, and we have to deal with them. Me? I happen to love many of those plays - especially MacBeth. :-) Yes, I can still recite the "Queen is dead" soliloquy of MacBeth, at least mostly. And Hamlet's "To be or not to be", too. We had to memorize 'em. Thanks, Ms. Sheridan! :-) |
2011-10-28T16:50:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10798 |
| Jim, you're right that Shakespeare almost has this coming to him. Whenever I hear one more "Shakespeare didn't exist!" story I think of some great Lancasterian plot from beyond the grave as revenge for what Bill the Bard did to Richard III. :-) As to your other point, you can't really take this as far as that kind of personal motive and I didn't mean it that way at all. But to get this to the point where the resources to make and release a movie are put to bear - you have to wonder what the cultural motivation is in place to make all that happen & presume to make a buck off of it. So if you'll give me a separation between cultural motivation, which I'm describing, and personal motivation, which I'm never sure of (and could just be the desire to make a buck!) I hope it doesn't sit as badly. |
2011-10-28T16:45:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10797 |
| Thanks, Jan! | 2011-10-28T16:41:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10794 |
| There are many lies told for many "political" purposes because people tend to believe what they want to believe - that which reinforces their world view. History does get re-makes all the time - and Shakespeare was as guilty of that as anyone. But ultimately the virtue of the storytelling and how often it is repeated does make more difference than anything as abstract as "truth". It's a good lesson to keep in mind always, IMHO. | 2011-10-28T15:30:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/28/assault-on-shakespeare/#comment-10791 |
| Sheryl: It is a strange thing, isn't it? The idea that the rich create jobs THEREFOR we should give them more money is a two-step process, one that has big "maybes" at each step. But it seeped into the political dialogue in a way that it just can't e dislodged. Dunno. | 2011-10-27T22:28:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10782 |
| That would be an interesting compromise - might have to throw a few other things in there in the way of reform but I think what counts is moving forward. So much is changing that I'm afraid that we aren't in a position to master the world being created around us and will instead be mastered by it. You're right about entitlement reform, and I've been slow to take that on because I've focused on the immediate problem of the Depression. But you're right, at some point we have to do something about it. I'll think about it. |
2011-10-27T12:44:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10780 |
| I want to ask the question why did Democrats become Reagan Democrats I dunno ... you do your best to raise the kids up right and ... sob! Seriously, it's a good question. I was a big Paul Simon fan (and not just because bow ties are cool) but because he represented what I always have believed - you set up the system to fairly reward hard work & smart thinking, but in a way that takes care of the vulnerable. The rest you sort of let go once it's off and operating, until you see a problem - when you go in and fix it. Sadly, Paul Simon is dead. jack Kemp? Dunno, haven't heard from him in a while (tho I still have a #10 Buffalo Bills bobblehead from the late 60s around somewhere). We're just so timid about everything substantial any more. | 2011-10-26T19:56:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10777 |
| Welcome! While I never swear, I don't mind if commentors do, at least when it's appropriate. And $516 trillion, as you wrote it out (counting the zeros ... check!) is worth swearing about. There are times when something is so stupid that you have to think there is a dark, evil purpose behind it. The way the whole party got out of whack I'd say it was so evil that things went way back over to just plain stupid. There is no way the worldwide derivative position could possibly have ended well in 2007. The truth is that this is the low estimate - some have been as high as double that, and no one is really sure. Have a nice day! :-) | 2011-10-26T17:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10775 |
| Exactly. I left the door open a bit for the possibility that there are times when investment cash is short and cutting marginal rates on capital gains really is a good idea - I still think the main effect of Reagan's tax cuts in the 1980s was a Keynsian stimulus but I'll let that one go because the fight is not relevant at all. But no one can claim this is what needs to be done today. It just doesn't make a lick of sense. | 2011-10-26T17:08:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10774 |
| You're right, the term lost favor. I'm using it because I can't think of any other term for the whole theory that launched this mess. My guess is that it started playing badly as a term in the 90s and the Republicans deliberately dropped it. I still prefer "Voodoo Economics", but I'm old. :-) | 2011-10-26T17:05:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10773 |
| Welcome! You know, there are zillions of theories out there, but the one that tells the owners of media and so on "You can have your cake, eat it, and eat your neighbors'!" is the theory that will have a lot of traction - no matter how stupid it might be. So yes, that's the way it goes when you trust "experts" to run everything. | 2011-10-26T16:24:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10769 |
| Thanks. I hope that fellow Democrats can pick up on this - I'm doing my best to get towards a slogan that's useful. Not quite there yet, but close. | 2011-10-26T16:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/26/socialized-risk/#comment-10768 |
| Smithson: You have to stop reading my mind! One of the things I'm leading into is how the last 30 years or so have been about manipulating risk. Supply side, with its cheap money and implied bailout (which became real) as well as Black-Scholes-Merton, are all about personal benefit from investment with socialized risk. The use of the term "socialized" to describe offloading risk even when there are market forces involved may not suit some, but I can't think of a better term for it. The point is that the investor has offloaded it to a larger population that may or may not understand what they have (esp given the lack of transparency around CDSs). The result was a Credit Bubble and an amazing concentration of wealth. What else could possibly happen? If we don't change our attitude and get serious about risk / reward it will happen again. It's obvious that this cannot continue. What I started with was the theory that became an attitude and an embedded policy in our politics that has to change. There's also a specific course of action here, meaning there's something for heart and arm and brain (you know it's wrong, here's the reason, and here's what to do about it). But the bigger picture - Socialized Risk - is a bit harder to talk about. Wanted to start with a specific example to make the point more clear. But yes, we cannot afford Socialized Risk without Socialized Reward. If that means that we should talk about socializing banks, or at least regulating them as a public utility, then so be it. Those who would naturally object to these ideas have a position to fall back on - a more traditional view of risk / reward where BOTH are taken on by an investor or group of 'em. Either way, I'm OK with it. Better than the mess we have now. |
2011-10-25T18:49:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10754 |
| Yup. Not going anywhere soon. But if you want specific action that OWS should demand, this is it. | 2011-10-24T23:30:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10751 |
| So someone was paying attention! I was at the time, too, but I don't think I said anything that good. But Dorgan was 100% correct - and it's time to fix it. I think as we plan on moving ahead we have to look at the total sum of the damage the supply-side arguments and all their weird derrivative effects had on our economy. It's time to reject this nonsense all around. | 2011-10-24T21:06:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10748 |
| Anna: Sorry 'bout that, doesn't happen very often that I know of. But yes, I don't think too many people were paying attention back then. To this day "Glass-Steagall" is a bit of a conversation killer. But I have to do what I can. It is all about a single political theory that has very much been proven wrong (at least in the far extreme where we tend to practice it). | 2011-10-24T17:24:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10744 |
| Jim: Thanks. I do think that tying it all together is what is missing in both our media and our ability to organize right now. | 2011-10-24T15:58:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/24/too-big-to-be-useful/#comment-10741 |
| Laurie: That's why I wanted to write about this perspective and the forms it naturally creates - it's very common on the 'net, and rightfully so. Conversational styles of writing are going to slip into second person easily. But when we were young it was forbidden in school - very few people have practice doing it properly with a hand guiding how to do it. The result is often confusion. What seems accusatory may simply be an attempt to be engaging and intimate. It's worth thinking about as we all strive to be better communicators. | 2011-10-23T17:11:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10727 |
| Paul: Interesting choice, I'd have to see why he chose it. I can think of several works in second person, but that is the only one I have ever heard of in first-plural! Thanks. | 2011-10-23T04:26:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10725 |
| Smithson: Excellent example! I have a copy of that thin paper that was handed out that day, a very long story there. I should return it to its rightful owner. But it is very powerful. I forgot that example of second person, the battle cry / coach's speech. | 2011-10-22T14:20:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10719 |
| Jack: That's your pioneer-era spirit showing! :-) | 2011-10-21T21:32:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10713 |
| Anna: Thanks! It's Friday and I thought I'd do something a little more fun. Well, not entirely so but whatever. :-) | 2011-10-21T18:18:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10709 |
| Thanks, Jan! :-) Now that I don't have to maintain second person I can just say what I really think - it's a lot harder than it looks. It took me forever to edit this piece and get rid of the slides out of second person, so you do have to be very careful. But for some forms it works very well. | 2011-10-21T16:46:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/21/second-person/#comment-10707 |
| Llama: Welcome, and thanks! It's more fun to me to find the people who almost made it but didn't quite. It took Antonio Salieri to make "Amadeus" a great story. :-) | 2011-10-19T19:36:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/19/scene-unseen-2/#comment-10698 |
| Thanks, guys. It is a recycle, and yes, I was sort of thinking of Jobs when it came back to me - but the principle is an old one that we should not ignore. | 2011-10-19T16:49:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/19/scene-unseen-2/#comment-10696 |
| Smithson: I agree hat was accepted, and I think there's more to go on deregulation along many lines. The left rank-and-file has far less apetite for regulation than the leadership does. The big exeption is banking, which many people I know are getting radical about. Glass-Steagall redux is a hot topic anymore. Time marches on. The meaning of "progressive" is changing. But I think we're getting somewhere. It's all what we value. |
2011-10-18T03:53:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10676 |
| Jack: First of all, you're pretty sharp. Second of all, I think most people have known this stuff is hooey for a long time even if the media has let it go as if it was too controversial to take on. Lastly, you ask "How can otherwise intelligent people still not acknowledge its failure?" That is an interesting one. So many people ignore the obvious in the name of what they believe it utterly baffles me. Sure, I can do this too, but I make a point of not letting it happen too often. There's a basic value at work here - truth has to win out over the personal. I think it's an expression of selfishness more than anything. Strange theory, no? |
2011-10-17T20:43:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10667 |
| Thanks Dale - just trying to get some organizing tools out there for people to refer to. Didn't even get into inequality, which is a whole 'nuther post. | 2011-10-17T18:05:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10664 |
| Anna: We did create jobs in 2008 - just not a lot. We can do it again and make it work - but there's no reason to try what we know doesn't work anymore. That's my main point. and I'll stand by it. I think you're right about temporary measures designed exclusively to goose consumer spending - those may not be as effective for the reasons you cite. | 2011-10-17T17:09:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10661 |
| Saturdays: Glad to see you! I agree, it's been a long strange trip - but times have changed. I only hope that solid Republicans become more engaged in the debate about what comes next and don't simply keep insisting they are right because I do think that everyone has something to add as we move forward. It's our nation, after all. We have to make it work for us. | 2011-10-17T16:34:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10659 |
| I thought I'd leave the bumpersticker for the comments, but there are several that come to mind: "Supply Side" was a con No more Voodoo Economics! |
2011-10-17T15:24:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/17/supply-side-is-dead/#comment-10656 |
| Smithson: You and I both keep going back to 1968 and 1980. I'm never totally sure what to make of either of those years but I know they had long shadows. 1968 was the year things got so out of control that even Nixon started to look like a good idea. "We're all Keyneisans now", he told us, but it wasn't until 1980 that we understood that Keynesianism could be dressed up in a suit and called Friedmanism. It's a much-needed stimulus in bad times and an attempt at a free lunch in good times. I think that the Left has an obligation to take on Supply-Side and bury it once and for all. I sense that today's Republicans don't have the guts to defend Reagan any longer so that makes him vulnerable. That's my politician side talking - seize the middle ground and make Reagan the one you blame for everything. I think it will stick. The economist in me is really an engineer with an elaborate hobby, so it's a bit more confusing. I want a lot more stimulus now, but it seems to me that investments that either transform the economy along lines we know it's going or true investments in infrastructure are going to have far more payback than any kind of make-work or attempt to goose job creation directly. Been reading about job creation dynamics and I just feel that there is no magic formula other than a firm hand at the tiller and a good sense of which way the wind is blowing. So maybe Robert Reich, like a stopped watch, is right twice a day. Why not? I'd also love to free up headspace by throttling back the military's $700B plus budget, but I know that could cause other problems down the road. Mostly, I don't know what a Keynsian stimulus looks like after decades of large deficits - knowing full well that FDR never ran a deficit of more than about 5% of GDP. Back to those two pivotal years. 1968 I say we live with as we erected a stone monument to MLK 30 feet tall. 1980 I say we cut down and see who steps up to defend it. Mostly, I want that firm hand and dogma is never a substitute for leadership. |
2011-10-17T01:27:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10641 |
| GB: With you on all this, except I don't think we can ever get 99%. But 54% would definitely change everything about as thoroughly. I like how you say this isn't just a political statement - but about basic values that infuse corporations, consumerism, and so on. That is what we are talking about here. And I agree that we should pity people who think that having the most toys is a path to happiness because they will never be happy. What's at stake here are values, nothing more nor less. The world is changing whether we like it or not. Will we master that change and make it work for us or not? We have to know who we are first. That seems to be comign along pretty well. |
2011-10-16T20:05:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10637 |
| Molly: Must've gone right past each other before! I agree comepletely, thanks for the links. We'll get there. Dale: Good point. Had to start where it did to work! |
2011-10-14T19:12:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10611 |
| Jim: I'll give you that! But it has to keep up before they really get the message. | 2011-10-14T18:03:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10607 |
| Laurie: Excellent! Give 'em Hell! I'll be in on it next week after I catch up with a few things, which makes me feel lame but I have to pay the mortgage! A. Shubert: Welcome! Yes, we have to watch for that. I was going to write today about my recent conversations with my lefty friends (birds of a feather) and how they have so little support for the leadership, but we'll see how this plays out in the short term. I do think the protesters are right to be wary of leadership, especially now, but eventually something like leadership will have to bubble up. Let's hope it stays true to the message! |
2011-10-14T17:52:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10602 |
| Anna: The more we can refine and write down demands the more likely they are to happen. I do worry that it's too diverse but this is the early stage of coalition building. It's what comes next that I'm interested in - because I want this to be effective. | 2011-10-14T16:19:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/14/occupying/#comment-10599 |
| Sheryl: The problem is that it would tear down everything that keeps us afloat right now. We really don't have control over the US Dollar because it is the global standard. There are a lot of benefits to that for those with money (ie, good jobs) but there's a big downside for the rest. As appealing as it would be to take on the world, it can't change until we give up our position of advantage. That is the problem. Anything we do to force the situation would make that change happen very quickly - which would be very bad. | 2011-10-13T18:48:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10584 |
| Thanks, Dale. Just trying to get the word out. | 2011-10-12T18:13:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10575 |
| Jim: Yes, it is true that we could put together a plan that is truly bad. But this is more like flailing around for a quick-fix. I don't think it is as popular as the Senators are counting on, at least not after talking with some people, so we'll see where this goes. But it is possible to do some very stupid (ie, Hooverian [thanks, Jack!]) things. | 2011-10-12T17:31:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10573 |
| Anna: I went a bit easy on them because I thought it was better to show how wrong they are rather than just say it. I'm trying to let readers make up their own minds because I'm not sure that this will be unpopular. Remember, I write to convince and/or start good arguments, not rally those who already agree with me. You and I are very much in line here, as is Jack, so I'll say it in the comments - this is about the stupidest thing the Senate could possibly come up with and it shows how desperate they are even as they avoid taking on what they should be doing. | 2011-10-12T15:13:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10569 |
| It is Hoover all over again. You are much smarter than about 63 Senators. :-) | 2011-10-12T14:54:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/12/mr-smoot-meet-mr-hawley/#comment-10567 |
| OK. :-) But I wouldn't blame ya for grumbling a bit. | 2011-10-10T21:31:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/10/nobel-prize-expectations/#comment-10546 |
| Jack: Well, the guy who came up with the underlying ideas that went into that quick rise in rates just got the Nobel Prize. I would guess you aren't happy about that. | 2011-10-10T19:27:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/10/nobel-prize-expectations/#comment-10544 |
| Jim: It is strange stuff to cover because it does seem obvious to us now. I thought about Greenspan, the first Fed superstar, as I was writing this - Sargent really made that whole strange scene possible. | 2011-10-10T16:52:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/10/nobel-prize-expectations/#comment-10542 |
| I thought I should get in the first story on the topic. It's my gig, after all. :-) The only problem is that in the future I don't think people will realize I'm on GMT / UTC when they look at the time of posting so they won't realize I got it out just hours after the announcement. |
2011-10-10T14:31:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/10/nobel-prize-expectations/#comment-10538 |
| Sheryl: Big changes are coming, one way or the other, I think. We're only seeing the start of it. It becomes a question of how we get control of the changes - do we master them into a world we want to live in, or do they master us? | 2011-10-08T16:31:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/07/whew/#comment-10514 |
| Jim: Uh, thanks? :-) I prefer good news, no matter what anyone says. I'm a realist, not a cynic. | 2011-10-07T20:25:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/07/whew/#comment-10500 |
| Dale: I do, too. I haven't been this hopeful in a while. Jack: It's about all we can do, isn't it? Anna: I think that's fair. That initial claims number fell below 400k again, suggesting that we'll add a lot more jobs in October if everything holds - 200k or more. I think that would be impressive if it happens. That would be contingent on a decent round of news out of Wall Street and Washington (as well as Europe!) so there's a lot of peril out there - but we have the foundation of something good happening. |
2011-10-07T16:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/07/whew/#comment-10495 |
| Here's a bit of a hint as to what we're up to - http://pubschoolmn.com/ What say? |
2011-10-06T12:55:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10467 |
| Dale: You are right, and I'm going to work on this a bit. Something is up, something is working. The transformation is happening. It's a matter of getting to move forward. In a sense this isn't all that different from Keynsian "pump priming", but it's heightened. Meta pump-priming, in a way. And part of the battle is getting people to survive through to the next economy. |
2011-10-05T21:48:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/05/scaring-ourselves-with-numbers/#comment-10460 |
| Anna: Yes, that's right, there are jobs being created. The more I think about it the more I'm sure that the Obama admin is managing the initial claims number - which is what seems to be the strategy with the AJA. It makes sense to me, at least as part of an overall strategy. This is a dynamic process of creation and destruction - just a matter of which is winning at any given time. | 2011-10-05T17:50:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/05/scaring-ourselves-with-numbers/#comment-10454 |
| Jim: Excellent point - things might be moving along a lot better than we think. I will see what evidence there is that this might be true. Jack: Yes, that's why some "pump priming" is essential! The case for stimulus / Keynesianism in a nutshell. |
2011-10-05T16:58:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/05/scaring-ourselves-with-numbers/#comment-10452 |
| Thanks, Randy - but man, do I have work to do now ... :-) | 2011-10-05T14:40:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10446 |
| Laurie: I agree, if your college age son doesn't have the skills to absorb what he'd like then probably no one does. If we're going to develop those skills I think it will take a combination of working through it together (with some help from tried-n-true methods) plus a change in how people write / assemble info. But I'm sure that it will be worked through socially because no one can say, "Do this and it'll all be better". So I want to get working on it. Randy: Yes, that's what I mean. I don't think anyone is served by the default PowerPoint "talk". So what do we do instead? Been reading up on teaching methods (thanks, Eric Austin!) and getting juiced up on how people learn and what might work. I figure a little theory, a little trial and error, and a bit of talking it out here will get us somewhere. Everyone: Expect the details shortly, later this week. The plan is coming together. Also, I'll say more on market tanking tomorrow - I expected this (tho not this harsh this quickly in October!) as some of us discussed at the last #EconChat on Sunday night. |
2011-10-04T14:16:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10429 |
| Jack: It will start with social media stuff, but I want to be able to go further with it. I'm not into "seminars" either for many reasons and I'm trying to find an alternative that fits both the topic of social media and my own approach. For now I want to hear what people think. Sounds like the "seminar" format is not popular, which is what I was hoping. | 2011-10-03T17:08:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10416 |
| Jim: I am working on the details, but I want to know what people think. It helps me to focus and broaden my perspective. Anna: That's the plan here. An informal environment where people talk things over - but with focus and facilitation. I have some ideas for making a little bit of money off of it, too, which is what is important for me right now. |
2011-10-03T16:28:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/10/03/learning-socially/#comment-10414 |
| Jack: Missed your comment earlier! Yes, that's a little joke on my part. Follow the link and it ... sorta explains things. The ECB is supposed to be Santa Claus, as far as I can tell, but they aren't living up to their billing. | 2011-10-01T00:02:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/30/todays-bottom-stories/#comment-10372 |
| Jim: Crises - I use it a lot. :-) We did schedule that one, didn't we? Didn't work so well after all. Oh well. | 2011-09-30T22:19:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/30/todays-bottom-stories/#comment-10369 |
| Dale: I have no idea why Iowa either, but it had to be somewhere. Somewhere that really needed attention. :-) | 2011-09-30T18:48:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/30/todays-bottom-stories/#comment-10363 |
| Thanks, Anna, had to have a little fun. :-) | 2011-09-30T15:39:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/30/todays-bottom-stories/#comment-10360 |
| Sheryl: That's why organizing is so important - people have to unite behind intelligence and reason to make it happen. Yes, it's hard work, but many hands always lighten the load! How do we organize? This is a start ... | 2011-09-29T19:36:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/28/faith-in-us/#comment-10345 |
| Marshal Susie: Well, I'd love to see us get rid of them, but the process of trying so far has gotten us an even dumber Congress over the last 10 years. People have to learn to organize first to make sure there are good choices running, not just Tweedledum and Tweedledumber. Jim: Seems high to me, too, but yeah - there's always a few. |
2011-09-28T19:28:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/28/faith-in-us/#comment-10328 |
| Anna: I've been writing about the unique electoral prowess of the Millenials for a long time now, and I have to confess that I still don't get them. I doubt they will turnout in 2012 as they did in 2008, but they are staying involved far better than group their age - even surpassing the Baby Boomers in the 60s. It's impressive. And they do still have that faith, apparently. | 2011-09-28T17:30:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/28/faith-in-us/#comment-10324 |
| Jack: Yup. The poll simply confirmed what I believed, but rarely hear - no more than 1 in 12 people really think the Feds are "always" wrong. That's pretty much a fringe group. | 2011-09-28T15:59:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/28/faith-in-us/#comment-10320 |
| Laurie: If you believe that the game is all about electoral politics at this stage, some level of blame will be useful - I'll give you that. But the election is still a long way off (no matter how much CNN et al hype it!). In the meantime I think it's best to focus on forward movement and get done what we can. If nothing else, it'll prove the point. Two good links here, as always, but I especially like how you gave us a whole debate. I agree with Benin that it's fixing the Democratic Party that is important, and I'm trying to do that. The more we are the party of getting things done the better off America will be - and the votes will come through, I think. it's not sexy, it's not showy, and it does need to come down to a bumpersticker slogan or two to work, yes. But I think that's what we have to do. |
2011-09-27T14:03:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/#comment-10297 |
| Jack: Thanks! >blush!< But yes, I agree, this should have seemed like at least a good question to ask circa 2007-2008. People who are touting it now just can't be paying attention. That's not to say that the supply-side argument is never valid. There may well be a time and place when investment is the limiting factor in an economy. But not now. There is $2T in capital not being used because the perceived risk is way out of line - more capital will not make a difference today. | 2011-09-26T21:01:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/#comment-10289 |
| Jan: Thanks! It would be nice to get the message out a bit further, especially if I was paid for it. | 2011-09-26T18:33:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/#comment-10286 |
| Anna: Inflation is a headache, but it is the way to a net below zero "real" rate. That's why the Fed ah an internal inflation target now, probably about the 3.5% that the 30yr is getting. But they don't tell us just what it is. But no, this does not help the "liquidity trap" one bit because it makes risk even less palatable. You wind up with a LOT of fear, I think. Bottom line to me is that there's only so much the Fed can do and they have done it (as I have been saying for , what 3 years now!) Jim: You're right, we can't flail around. But there are many things that we know need to be done and we should simply go at them. Implementing the Simpson-Bowles framework would go a long way to restoring confidence, for example. A program of infrastructure catch-up is so long overdue. Education grants would help a lot (see last Friday's piece). So I think a soup made up of a lot of items that come together as a single "plan" could easily be fashioned and would give everyone a lot more confidence that we're going to get out of this. If they were really good I think they'd look at the items I listed for transformation and Obama could have a lot ot run on in 2012. |
2011-09-26T16:49:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/26/just-try-something/#comment-10283 |
| Laurie: I am happy to be countered with a good example! I'm very glad to hear that there are some kids with a lot of confidence because, as I tried to note, my daughter is pretty confident in herself but not completely so. I don't know how much the Carlson School is valued over a trade like Engineering, but we are blessed with a well-regarded school that's still mostly affordable. Getting through it in 3 years (as opposed to the usual 5-6) sounds like a good plan. I thin kit's easy to put too much on a 4 yr degree and I hope people don't go too far into debt to get one, but I also think there's a real baseline that you have to pick up to be able to do more than survive. Some can pick it up on the streets,to be sure, but college is going to be at least easier. Those who are getting left behind before they even have a HS diploma really are screwed anymore. Jobs where you could grown and learn from the ground up are pretty rare in this non-manufacturing world. |
2011-09-25T15:53:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/23/a-realistic-generation/#comment-10257 |
| Sheryl: I haven't gotten into how mad kids are, but the ones I've talked to are just very realistic and focused on what they can do. I agree on the selfishness - no one believes in organizing anymore. That's been hurting us far more than people ever talk about because no one seems to understand what can happen when people work together. This saddens me far more than anything else, to be honest. | 2011-09-24T18:29:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/23/a-realistic-generation/#comment-10243 |
| Sara: Well, I wasn't specifically targeting McDoogles as something I don't understand, since I often think that I know just what's in that stuff. But .. if that's what happens to it (or, more accurately, doesn't happen) then I think I can file it under at least "mystery" if not "I do not understand". :-) | 2011-09-23T18:24:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10226 |
| Dale: This is a big subject. There are six official definitions of unemployment, called U1 through U6. The first is the "headline" number The last one includes "underemployment", or people who aren't working as much as they want to, and is the most comprehensive. It is not broken down by age. There are two big problems with U1. The first is that it does not count "Discouraged Workers", or people who are not actively looking for work. That's a problem because many of them want or need a job but have given up for now. The other is that it does not include anyone who has worked at all, part time or as a freelancer. Many unemployed people do not have unemployment insurance, especially the young who never had a job in the first place, so they have to work somehow in order to survive - and then they don't count. So U6 is a better indicator all around. In order to estimate U6 among the young I used the typical 2:1 ration, but as I stated above it's probably much higher - young people never have unemployment bennies to fall back on and usually take just about anything. I've heard that roughly 40% is a reasonable figure for 16-24 year old net underemployment and I believe it - but we can justify 36% reasonably. It could even be much higher, but those figures are not maintained. |
2011-09-23T16:58:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/23/a-realistic-generation/#comment-10225 |
| Anna: I'm with you as far as these kids go. But I think it means a lot more to the Next Economy when there are limited skills defined around surviving. For example: many tell us the Next Economy will rely on a relentless advance of technology - but if fewer people have engineering degrees or serious background in science, how will that happen? Jack: It wasn't too much different in the 80s, except we didn't have the draft. College was there, many options were affordable, and everyone was encouraged to go into it. I don't think college is or should be for everyone (which is to say High School should be different, in the end) but what I hear is that kids who a generation ago would have gone to college will not, largely because they don't see the return on investment and are concentrating on getting by ("survive" is their word, BTW). That's just not good. |
2011-09-23T16:23:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/23/a-realistic-generation/#comment-10223 |
| Dale: Yes, I was mostly kidding around here, but this is part of a three-part real plan - balanced diet, a little exercise, and don't eat what you don't understand. More or less what Grandma said! :-) | 2011-09-22T15:50:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10195 |
| Jack: I don't mean to yank yer chain too hard, I know the appeal of those things. Heck, I eat even worse many times. Ready for the big confession? I eat those sandwiches you get at Holiday or SA gas stations and have to microwave! This particular post came out of a Sunday breakfast conversation with the kids. I'm trying to teach them the right thing, even if my own gas station eating habits are really atrocious. :-) |
2011-09-21T20:44:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10177 |
| Jim: I think this is the most popular diet there is. I beat the Atkins Diet without even trying! Whoo-Hoo! :-) | 2011-09-21T19:38:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10173 |
| Jack: I dunno, I think I understand what you get from McDoogles - a heart attack! No, seriously, I have cravings for that stuff once in a while. Funny. Anna: Been too serious lately, had to branch out some. :-) Jan: Yes, this is a way to think about the processed foods you eat at the very least. A little bit of highly processed flour may not be a big deal, but something full of stuff you don't know? Eh, not so much. I like to cook and I tend to eat mostly fresh stuff. It works. :-) |
2011-09-21T16:36:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/21/idiots-diet/#comment-10170 |
| Laurie: Interesting that you don't know anyone in a real bind right now. I thought nearly everyone did at this point, so your friends and neighbors are doing pretty well. Good for them! But we all agree that new opportunities are limited and that's what I usually focus on. I do want to get people more engaged because I don't see how we'll get out of this any other way. Keep those links coming, there is a lot of good discussion out there! | 2011-09-20T12:45:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10130 |
| I just want to highlight this article that Smithson left that I re-read more carefully. When the problem isn't money, then more money can't solve the problem. http://tinyurl.com/3kxomhd Time article, "Lessons from Japan" This is good stuff, it's a lot of what I've been saying all along but it uses Japan's "Lost Decade" (really two now) as an example. There's a lot to learn here. We need an engaged political system that is capable of trying new things and, yes, sometimes failing before we can really implement all the lessons we have to learn. That's the hard part. But I want to encourage everyone to be engaged, whether I agree with you or not, and make your contributions A Democratic Republic is made of this stuff, and it's the strength that we need to get past this and into a new era of progress and growth for all. |
2011-09-20T02:41:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10115 |
| Smithson: Great stuff, as always! Glad you agree that we have to do something. I still say that once we get through survival mode we have to work on transforming the economy - something that government can only kick start at best - but we do have to survive first. Also like what you said about the Health Care plan - I never did understand how businesses got stuck with the tab for health care in the first place, let alone that anyone would attempt to defend such a sill system (I know, no one really defends it, they just ignore it to criticize the other guy they don't like). | 2011-09-19T20:39:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10106 |
| Jack: I agree. The fight has been engaged and it's time for action. We're starting to get somewhere and this is no time to back away from our leadership - if anything, it's time to reward Obama for his action with our support. | 2011-09-19T16:58:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10101 |
| Anna: There probably are more numbers in the White House and they probably are all pretty bad - but this is what we have. We've known for a year now how well Initial Claims correlates with the next unemployment report but the last six weeks it's correlated very well with Obama's action. :-) I agree that action is what is important. As much as I'd like to see us moving to transform the economy there are political realities and immediate needs. If people start to respond well I hope we move on to the stuff that will really make s difference, tho. |
2011-09-19T16:30:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/19/come-the-dawn/#comment-10097 |
| Bruce: Thanks! It is a natural fit to start building rail lines, especially with so many construction workers part of the unemployment roles. Better to pay them to do something! I haven't been on this one for a while but it is really important for our future. | 2011-09-17T15:44:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/16/the-next-economy/#comment-10044 |
| Anna: Because changing our employment rules will take time and necessarily move slowly, I would contend that this makes getting started now even more imperative. I think we are many years behind already. Besides, I really hate the "Self Employment Tax". :-) But I agree on education - no one is happy with the state of education, it seems. That is very telling. |
2011-09-16T20:06:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/16/the-next-economy/#comment-10031 |
| Jack: These aren't in any particular order, and yes I agree with you. It seems that just about every discussion I've ever had on the next generation or the next economy always becomes a discussion of Education specifically. There is a very universal thread here that spans all political ideologies, too. Jim: I don't know that infrastructure needs tell us much directly about the next economy, but we certainly have to be better at keeping up with them than we have been. I left it out because I couldn't make a direct connection. If you have some ideas I'd love to hear them! |
2011-09-16T17:11:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/16/the-next-economy/#comment-10027 |
| Laurie: The Freelancer's Union made me think of Larry the Cable Guy - "Git 'r Done!" I think that's the world we're in now. Need to make something happen? Slip a guy a few bucks and it'll happen. T: It''s a constant scramble, isn't it? But you're surviving and so am I. This has been a bad month for me, and I think a lot of us. But like you I'll do just about anything to make a buck. Been a while since I did any finish carpentry, for example. Just have to keep your eyes open for any opportunity and maybe even a freebie if you're sure it has a chance of leading to something. Thanks for your story! |
2011-09-15T14:08:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/14/the-gig-economy/#comment-10002 |
| Jim: The other end of what Jack mentioned. Yes, what is being done to people under 25 will probably merit a revolution one day. We have some bad retribution coming, I think. Dan: Bingo. It's not as though there's a finite pie to be divided, but ... there kind of is in the end. Strangling the middle class won't get the rich anywhere in the long run, either, because the hearts and arms and brains of people are what create all wealth - letting them go to waste wastes the greatest resource our nation (or any nation) has. So you can imagine what the highest possible wealth of the nation requires - and this ain't it. |
2011-09-14T20:46:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/14/the-gig-economy/#comment-9991 |
| Jack: You and a lot of other people I know. I haven't been able to find good stats on the numbers - so many your age fall into the "discouraged worker" category and fall off the Oh-Fish-Eye-Al gummint rolls. If someone knows where I can find a breakdown of U6 unemployment by age I'd be very grateful (a google search includes way too much garbage). But I know there are a LOT of you out there. | 2011-09-14T18:56:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/14/the-gig-economy/#comment-9985 |
| Anna: Thanks. I think this is one of those things we don't talk about out of shame. It wasn't that long ago that "freelance" meant "unemployed", and in the face of superstar images of wealth thrown at us in popular culture a lot of people feel they are an underclass, left behind and isolated. I think we all need to talk about this a lot more and realize that this is the way work will be done by a lot of people - today and tomorrow. There is no shame in being able to survive in the face of adversity! | 2011-09-14T15:31:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/14/the-gig-economy/#comment-9981 |
| Jan: Thanks, it's worth trying. If nothing else I want to separate the people who are reasonable from the ones who are not. | 2011-09-13T19:11:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9961 |
| Laurie: I agree with you on Republican leadership, but I'm also pretty skeptical of Democratic leadership. I think we've hit the point where it's up to people to put pressure on the leaders to do the right thing. I'm trying to reach out to ordinary Republicans who are, from my read, pretty disappointed as well. Think about the debt ceiling issue - if you're someone who is Republican because you manage your stock portfolio and support business generally, how can you be happy with the volatility that has hit the markets since that? How can you even imagine risking default? There are a lot of people I don't agree with generally who seem to have a common interest with me right now, and I'm trying to reach out to them. Screw the leadership. We need people to speak out on both sides for sanity. I'm taking some advice Jack gave me a full month ago on this one. I'm also going to say that I'm for Obama no matter what and we Progressives have to support him where we can and give him space. I was disappointed in the AJA but I know why he started where he did - and I support him. Let's work to give him room for the next step as we back him on this one. The 2012 election might get ugly, sure. But the voices of reason won't have a chance unless they organize - and start doing it now. Will it work? I hope so. But it sure won't work if we don't get going and try. |
2011-09-13T15:25:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9957 |
| Jack, Sheryl: If someone wants to take this as a challenge I do think we'll know who they are. I think it's long past time to put up with partisan games and silliness. | 2011-09-12T22:23:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9947 |
| Jim: I'm doing my best to reach out and not put this in partisan terms. If we can all cut out the games right now I'll just forget who is to blame for everything and we can get right at fixing things. I'm sure we'll have some serious disagreements as to how to do that so it's best that we all concentrate on what we have to do rather than who is to blame for what. That's the message I hope we can take from this, at least. |
2011-09-12T21:19:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9943 |
| Thanks, Anna! It struck me how much I had forgotten this spirit as well, so I should make it clear that I'm as guilty of what I describe here as anyone else. | 2011-09-12T16:44:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/12/a-spirit-not-an-event/#comment-9938 |
| Laurie: Great stuff, as always. Robert Reich is my top choice for the adult supervision of a new generation of Progressives. :-) I would like to hear more about what he has to say because, as a labor guy, he did call this a "Depression" long before most people were willing to go there. The more I think about the AJA the more I realize that this simply has to pass and we have to get things moving. I wish there was more here, but we have to start with something that has a chance of passing - and that's what Obama did. Always a pragmatist. Should I read in the tea leaves that he doesn't realize we should do a lot more? No, I don't think so - but it's up to us to put that pressure on Obama and, especially, Congress. That's where people like Reich come in. If you go, tell us what he said! I'll have to read the transcript. We've been holding what I call #EconChat on twitter Sundays at 7PM CDT (midnight GMT), just when Japan's stock market opens for the week. Would love to have you and anyone else interested. Maybe if there's a Reich transcript up we can talk about that. |
2011-09-10T15:14:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9889 |
| Jim: I hope it's not like that, but even if it is this could be what rids the nation of the extreme part of the right wing forever. Perhaps Obama is going to use their inflexibility against them, why not? But that implies that this is the most we can expect for a long time - and that would be a shame. | 2011-09-09T19:31:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9871 |
| Jack: This was a hard post to write because I don't want to sound either too negative or too positive about this plan. Part of me says: This is a Depression and yes, we have to do whatever we can. FDR didn't know what the Hell he was doing, but he knew he had to do something. So does Ben Bernanke. It's about time we get something though that builds some infrastructure and gets something moving again. If this is all we can get because of the composition of Congress, then let's get this through. The other part says: This is far from adequate and another half-measure that will lull everyone into thinking that they should just not pay any attention and everything's all hunky and/or dory. The details of estimating the number of jobs are not important - basically, something around 2.2M jobs give or take. That's both not bad and not adequate at the same time. The problem is that big. I appreciate your opinion here and want you to know that I'm pretty damned underemployed as well, so I get it. I hope that this proposal goes through and it's the start of some serious cooperation by the Republicans. We'll just have to see. But I just can't see this as anything other than a start. |
2011-09-09T18:07:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9867 |
| On Fiscal Multipliers: I didn't mean to go this route, but what the heck. According to this pdf paper by the San Francisco Fed (aka "L" :-) ) the net from the 2008 stimulus (ARRA) 8.7 jobs were created with each million bucks. That suggests that with $440B we should expect 3.8M jobs overall - including the estimated 1.6M, or a net gain of 2.2M jobs. That's a lot better than I expected, frankly. I think I was a bit too hard on this plan. However, it's no more than about a quarter of the jobs gap that we have, so even at that level the proposal will not end the Depression. | 2011-09-09T16:55:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9865 |
| Dan: Thanks, that's a good enough lead. I need to track a lot of this down when I have more time, maybe this weekend. Anna: I didn't make my own estimate because I don't want to guess at a fiscal multiplier. The best article I've seen on the concept was in the Economist a long time ago (we're all using inline links now, I guess!) and there is a ton of debate on the right number. I think the right answer is closer to a million, but it's just a guess. I also see that EPI was saying the job gap is about 11M, which is on the high side - the range is 8M - 12M and I tend to go with the lower number. If nothing else, creating 8M jobs & then seeing where we are would be one Hell of a start! Do I need to write a piece on fiscal multiplier? I guess I never thought it would be important in the debate. Let's see if Dems use that EPI article (which appears to have come from the Obama administration). | 2011-09-09T16:26:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9863 |
| Dan: I missed that, thanks. I will go back and look that over. Health care counts as "consumer spending", so when we look at the graphs that show insane growth in consumer spending to 78% of all GDP by 2004 we all have to remember that health care is horribly distorting that number. What you're telling me here is that it's distorting numbers all over. Great. I need to plow through all that stuff and figure out what's really happening. | 2011-09-09T14:50:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/09/american-jobs-act/#comment-9858 |
| Laurie: Great article, as usual. Two things stand out to me - how universal it is becoming to use a 30 year cycle, starting with 1980 as the origin of our current economy (and its problems) and the solid discussion of the role of productivity. Both of these were not questioned just a decade ago, but now the 80s and the ensuing increases in productivity are up for scrutiny. Fascinating. I think it's obvious to start with 1980 and look forward, but the fact that this is hitting popular opinion so easily without debate astounds me. If nothing else, I'd expect Republicans to defend Reagen more effectively - and I have a few arguments ready if they do. I can't wait to see where this debate goes, frankly - it's very healthy and so far seems to be very factual and matter-of-factual. Thanks again! |
2011-09-08T14:01:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/07/a-decade-or-so/#comment-9830 |
| Anna: I'm keeping my expectations low for the speech and, yes, somewhat predictable aftermath of no, no, and no. I also agree that bin Laden will go down as a footnote in history, but he did do a lot of damage - largely because the excuse of chasing him down caused more damage than he did to our civil liberties, political climate, and our economy. | 2011-09-07T21:57:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/07/a-decade-or-so/#comment-9819 |
| Dan: Was trying to be neutral, but I do blame the right far more myself. You are right that increased globalization and the rise of the developing world are far more interesting than 9/11 in terms of big changes, but from a purely US economy - centric position I think that the place of 9/11 is underestimated. But yes, I think my piece on containerized cargo will stand up to time much better, for example. :-) | 2011-09-07T21:18:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/07/a-decade-or-so/#comment-9817 |
| Jack, Dale: That wasn't the direction I was going, but it does seem to be true. I'm more interested in people looking back with a clear eye so that we can learn something from it all. I think there are a lot of lessons here. I didn't say a think about the Iraq War in part because I still have only some speculation as to how/why we were sucked into that in the first place, but there are probably a lot of lessons to be learned from that sorry chapter, too. | 2011-09-07T18:21:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/07/a-decade-or-so/#comment-9813 |
| Laurie: Excellent articles, as always! The commentary by EJ Dione is, well, up to his usual high standards - thank you especially for that. Everything in our world comes from work of some kind, and this has been known by any thinker, both famous and not, for thousands of years. Why has it become controversial now? It's more than denying history, it's denying reality. You make such excellent contributions to Barataria that I can't help but think that I should do something to highlight you more - or encourage you to have your own blog! Remember this, everyone - just follow Laurie's links and you'll see something good. Thank you so much! |
2011-09-06T16:54:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/05/defined-by-work/#comment-9780 |
| Anna: That is an excellent idea, and very pertinent. I've been told that family and friends are usually the best leads for jobs, and my experience more or less confirms this. But just to lift someone's spirits and get them up and around is very important as well. It's hard for people to keep going after a while, especially once they feel like they've been shoved to the curb with the trash. Thank you for the suggestion, it is a vital one! |
2011-09-05T20:18:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/05/defined-by-work/#comment-9764 |
| Jack: It's a problem that this can happen in what was not long ago unquestionably the greatest nation on earth. But I know that we all experience downturns and that hard times are just part of life. What really worries me is the extent to which classes are separating and people don't think about those who are in this situation. We can get through this if we stick together and remember what is important - our humanity, not our wealth. | 2011-09-05T18:39:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/05/defined-by-work/#comment-9762 |
| Laurie: Ha! BTW, I loved your article so much I posted it at facebook where it's been shared by a number of people already, so it's resonating very well with many folks. No one likes industrial schools and we all want to find a different model. But be prepared to be a bit blown away by Gatto - he's a bit much to take in on one reading in my experience. But it's very good stuff IMHO and at least worth talking about. | 2011-09-03T14:51:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/02/labor-creates-all-weath/#comment-9725 |
| Laurie: Excellent article! I'd like everyone to read it, it's really good stuff. But I have to tell you the most annoying thing about Barataria is that I whip out a post about 4 years old in response to nearly everything. Oh, yeah, I have one on factory schools: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/09/27/widgets/ Yes, I agree with the article completely. Education as we know it is designed as an enormous factory to produce factory workers - who are, incidentally, all unemployed now. And so it goes .. Thanks! |
2011-09-03T03:46:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/02/labor-creates-all-weath/#comment-9711 |
| April: Sorry I was slow to respond - here's an article from a source I don't usually use but I think is right on (and has the BLS source) http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/24/1010239/-Unemployment-rate-among-young-workers-hits-record-high I want to add two ideas to this list that I have been convinced are important since I put this together. The first is increased support for education and retraining. I think that this will help in the medium term. Workers have to learn new skills and I think a Federal program that identifies obvious skill gaps and pays tuition (perhaps even 100% upon graduation) would be beneficial. There does seem to be a component of "Structural Unemployment" in this economic transformation that we have to tackle: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/05/16/structural-unemployment/ The other important thing that needs to be done is that the Federal Reserve has to stop allowing member banks to park large amounts of money, with interest. At the very least, the roughly $1.5T in deposits should no longer gain interest (which is to say, they can be marked to the 3 month TBill, which is currently about zero interest). The Fed should also look at a cap of total deposits by any member bank. http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/03/velocity-of-federal-reserve-deposits/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/09/29/what-happened/ |
2011-09-02T16:21:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-9699 |
| Anna: Yes, this is my warmup for the speech. You can see what I'm looking for, although my plan was laid out some time ago here. I'll update it in a bit to include two revisions, one your retraining/ education ideas. Jack: Yes, we would be screwed if something like Pearl Harbor happened today. Oh, wait ... it did 10 years ago ... well, youknowwhatImean. :-) We are very weak largely because we have been importing heavily for a decade (really three). The jobs market is heavily defined by manufacturing, especially in some places (see next). Jim: Sorry, I ran out of space. Here's the focus on Ohio, as an example of a traditional manufacturing state: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=53254&category_id=0 Note that in the last decade Ohio lost about 500k jobs, about 9% of all jobs they had. 400k of them were in manufacturing, generally the highest paying for the Middle Class. You can see their voting record, flipping from one party to the next, written in that employment graph IMHO. |
2011-09-02T16:11:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/09/02/labor-creates-all-weath/#comment-9698 |
| Jack: It is a lot more than defending the nation - it's about preserving a bygone era at tremendous cost. We just can't do it anymore. Laurie: good clip! Obama has often said the right things, but he doesn't really sell them. And the left hasn't done a good job of putting pressure on everyone to even talk about this stuff. Yes, I'm trying to lead into whatever he proposes in a week and get people thinking about how we can - and perhaps have to - afford a serious jobs program. Whatever he proposes it will take some oomph to get through. People have to be more engaged and help push the things that really matter or else we'll get more of the same. |
2011-09-01T13:34:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/31/opportunity-cost/#comment-9659 |
| Jack: It was fixed! There has to be more than just the military that we can think about, but ... fergooshsakes if we can't start there we're in serious trouble. We do have to save Medicare and that will mean serious choices and all of that, I understand, but .... none of this is even close to the defense budget. Thanks for the whole statement from the man who led us to our greatest victory ever. It's still relevant, maybe even moreso. |
2011-08-31T21:47:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/31/opportunity-cost/#comment-9637 |
| Dale: I don't think most people know how expensive defense has become. The Pentagon has proven unauditable for 20 years now, so it's not a matter of spending what we must to remain safe - it's a matter of systemic abuse of a blank check. It simply has to come up, and soon. Anna: Thanks! You are right - I use infrastructure all the time but education (I hate the term "retraining"!) would be useful. We could easily design a program that supports universities, community colleges, and trade schools alike and thus allows consumers to make their own choices as to what matters. That would certainly help Structural Unemployment greatly, if nothing else, and as part of the package I've described before could be very powerful. |
2011-08-31T17:30:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/31/opportunity-cost/#comment-9633 |
| Smithson: I have no doubt that cutting off spending now would be a terrible mistake - while I'm trying to remain a bit centrist on some policy debates I don't see any justification for balancing the budget right now. And I can see that, given the Euroworld's tendency towards austerity, we're going to be in a good position to grow. But I still think that Keynesianism - in the sense that spending, any spending, gets new money out there - has been proven wrong as well. Most of my writing in the last year has been focused on the kind of spending that we can do to transform the economy, as opposed to spending on propping things up as they are. I still think there is a distinction to be made. But we can't turn off the tap and have a contraction, not at all. I don't regard that as even remotely sensible. I hope that explains my (somewhat complex) view of QE without a lot of words, among other things. |
2011-08-31T13:07:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9620 |
| Smithson: I won't argue with you - I'll leave that to history when it's all shaken out. What bothers me is the perverse logic that greeted QE more than the act itself. It was designed to lower TBill rates, but instead increased them - by increasing confidence that everything was under control. The Debt Ceiling debacle accomplished what Bernanke could not by making it clear that we're in uncharted territory and there was real risk - again, the opposite of what a downgrade should have done. Yet, through it all, the sense that there's already too much risk out there has dominated the inability to get QE cash out of the Fed vaults and into the economy. I'm not faulting Bernanke for his actions, but I am faulting leadership generally for not giving us a proper sense of urgency. I still don't know how history will write this up - once we get out of Bizarro world, that is. Perhaps my empathy circuits are overloaded because I've got the worry everyone else should have bottled up in me, but this just isn't going well. Psychology is beating out logic - and Bernanke is exhibiting cool logic all over the place. The reassurance he give us is actually disquieting. We'll have to see how it all shakes out. |
2011-08-31T01:15:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9606 |
| Everyone: I want to make it clear that my opinions of the Fed's actions are not clearly expressed in this article - on purpose. I do have a lot of sympathy for Bernanke but I question much of what's been done (which is, however, expressed in the two links to old Barataria articles). Our current Depression compares very well to the Panic of 1893, one of the true bona fide depressions in US history by any measure. An excellent article on it can be found here: http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/whitten.panic.1893 It's a lot of reading, but I think you'll find it fascinating. Note also that the government response was pretty weak and GDP did not recover for 7 years. | 2011-08-30T21:35:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9602 |
| Jack: Exactly - that sharp spike was all about a very sudden shift in the economy caused by demobilization. The government was careful to avoid a similar effect in 1946, but there was still some problem. In both cases loose money and lower interest rates eventually tapped pent-up demand by consumers that went unrealized during the war and recovery was swift. Protectionism was normal in 1920, so the (quite large) increases in tariffs was not a problem at all - but was clearly a greater tax on the rich than on the poor, it's worth noting. | 2011-08-30T20:22:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9599 |
| Stealth: That's not true. The "Depression" of 1920 is only called that because of a sharp decline in prices (deflation), but in all other ways was very similar to a common recession. It was caused primarily by the end of WWI and the end of government spending in the Wilson Administration in 1919. The Federal Reserve increased rates starting in 1919, but sharply reduced them in 1921 - and the crisis eased substantially right away. In addition the Harding administration greatly increased import tariffs (the biggest source of Federal income then) to pay for relief at the start of 1921. So it's a special event that was generally caused by changes in Federal Reserve and Government policies (related to the end of the war) and then met with new changes in policy by both agencies, ending it fairly quickly. | 2011-08-30T17:58:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9596 |
| Laurie: Contrast that article with the earlier comment by Kevin. The Fed is the only body trying to do anything, and people at both ends hate them for it. If the Republicans really want a Fed to sit back and do nothing they have, once and for all, aligned themselves with Hoover. It's very stupid. More to the point, I think people will see though that nonsense and reject the Republicans in part to the extent they rip on Bernanke. Right now people don't have a strong opinion of the guy, but I think that raising his profile will raise his support http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/behind-the-numbers/post/poll-watchers-bernanke-who-congress-hits-new-lows-again-and-love-vs-science-for-women/2011/08/16/gIQAdGzaJJ_blog.html And yes, you read through me a little bit when I made this post. People have been dumping on a good man for long enough, IMHO. |
2011-08-30T01:59:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9584 |
| Kevin: I'll agree that the Fed is far more beholden to on the rich, but a stable currency benefits everyone. I know that Bernanke is trying to achieve that, even if it's not clear that it's working. Volatility is an easy way for traders to fleece small traders, both on the way up and the way down. Dale: I'm still not sure what to make of Greenspan. The big complaint I have about Big Al was that he was a seriously political animal, which Bernanke tries hard not to be. But he's been stuck in this activist role lately that ropes him into pseduo-politics. Not good, really. |
2011-08-30T01:20:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9582 |
| Anna: Yes, it was Bush, and I do believe that Bernanke was chosen for some good reasons. He had been talking publicly about deflation for a solid 3 years at that point, so his expertise was very clear to everyone. | 2011-08-29T18:55:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9576 |
| Jim: It took me 800 words to say that, but I was trying to be a lot nicer. :-) No, really, I think people should know a lot more about Bernanke because I think that it's unfair to dump on the one guy who seems to be trying to do something other than preen himself and make speeches. What he does may not always work, but he shares the stage of history with FDR in that department - a place where he'd much rather be than sitting around watching everything fall down. | 2011-08-29T15:30:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/29/ben-bernanke/#comment-9571 |
| Sheryl: I am working on it! But yes, I doubt things will get better as long as people are as selfish as they are now. It's tough to organize people who don't think beyond themselves. That is step #1, IMHO. | 2011-08-28T23:38:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9549 |
| Laurie: Social Media as a connector is something I enjoy writing about, but I keep it to a minimum because others write on it and reader polls suggest it's not the strong suit. But I do get to it once in a while, if for no other reason than to elicit comments. The Lakoff "frames" way of looking about public topics/debates is something I sort of assume, meaning it's worth talking about fairly often. :-) But framing the New Progressive thinking is what I think we're getting to after we use economists like Minsky (and, BTW, Graciela Chichilnisky for her work on Game Theory, even if she's more known for climate change!) and linguists like Lakoff along with a few political theorists. Heck, maybe I should make a list of "experts" that we're pushing together, eh? |
2011-08-27T21:38:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9531 |
| Smithson: As always, you bring up many great topic. First of all, it's impossible to say enough about Minnesota's own Norman Borlaug. I did my best when an interesting story came through: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/11/04/demographic-destiny/ I haven't said much about agriculture here partly because I'm not an expert and partly because I admit I am a bit confused by all the different things I read. But we do feed the world! It's a great triumph of the US - and yet the American Farmer is always just barely getting by it seems. Your angle, which is the perception of success and what that means to policy, is a very interesting one. I love it when I get something to think about! I have been talking about China's need to invest in T-Bills to maintain a US Dollar reserve against their need to invest in themselves. It has to kill them to have to take on our debt and they will certainly put pressure on ditching the US Dollar as the reserve currency when they are up against the wall. We have to come into conflict at some point because of their own internal conflict as well as our own (but aren't all wars really like that, economic or shooting ones?) http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/ Good stuff to think about on a beautiful weekend day, thanks! |
2011-08-27T14:52:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9521 |
| Dale: Trying to get a new Progressive movement together, seeing as the one we used to have is pretty well spent & useless. That's going to take some intellectual leadership, for lack of a better way of putting it. This doesn't lend itself to becoming dogma like the right-wing stuff has become, but ... wait ... that's a good thing ... :-) | 2011-08-26T21:46:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9500 |
| Jim: I can't create a political movement out of nothing. But we all can together if we figure out what we need. That's why comments are so important - they help refine and reshape the thinking into something more relevant and more easy to say. Having worked on my own "elevator speech" constantly for years, I have to tell you that I can deliver several of them quickly and easily - much better than they were the first time I tried. I felt we were getting a bit deep into how to interpret the data of our lives (which is getting lousy again) and it was time to pull back. Why is Initial Claims such a good number to follow? Because it's closely linked to business health, especially in manufacturing (a key industry) and we get it in very real time. It's those connections that make it useful, and understanding those connections help us to use it without falling into a bad "assumption trap". As Minsky tells us we get used to certain behaviors and keep doing them long after they are useful, don't want to do that. |
2011-08-26T16:37:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9486 |
| Anna: Not only that, but Initial Claims were revised up and the new data shows we're back at 412k per week - keep in mind that 430k appears to be complete stagnation. Fears of a "Double Dip" (which I'd call one long Depression, 'natch) are being realized. | 2011-08-26T16:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9484 |
| Anna: I think it's best to go back and forth - that's why I wanted to write all this down in the first place. As we've gotten more into specifics and solutions it seemed like a good time to pull back a bit - especially after I got the reminder of how much Minsky has influenced my thinking. Yes, this is your summer reading list! :-) Seriously, I have a funny feeling that people will "get" this a little better than they did in 2009 now that we've been talking about it and events have moved more towards calamity. Remember, two years ago it was more than a bit heretical to call this a "Depression" (not that heresy every stopped me!). |
2011-08-26T16:10:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/26/connections-revisited/#comment-9483 |
| Laurie: Good stuff, I've just started perusing your links. Thanks! The importance of good data is that we're living in a time when the complex financial system depends very heavily on management. The US Dollar, standard around the world, is nothing more than the "Full faith and credit of the US". If they don't have the right data they will reach the wrong conclusions and do the wrong things. Better understanding of the lives of ordinary people would be a great help, of course, but we can only expect so much of that. My main criticism of Krugman, for example, is that he has very different friends than I do. That's where the political process and subsequent policy making comes into play - and we know how broken that's been. So we're back to decent data as our best hope for highlighting what's going on. But we clearly don't have good data in anything like real time. What we do have fuels denial, dysfunction, and laziness. Given that economic cycles are very real - and quite inevitable, thanks Minsky et al - that's a scary prospect. So what next? But I think it's obvious by now that we've lost a solid decade already "farting around" (to use Alan's phrase). Let's try not to lose another one. You've got some good stuff there highlighting what is really going on. | 2011-08-25T04:49:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9438 |
| Smithson: Thank you very much, I am honored to have a student of the great Minsky comment on my humble work. I also believe that instability is inherent in modern finance. Success always breed both excess and complacency. I have never been a Black-Scholes-Merton fan because as a Chemical Engineer I was heavily trained in fault tolerance, which is to say the analysis of systems at their limits: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/03/23/boundary-failure/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/ The power-point presentation you linked to is really great because it challenges us to think about the assumptions that we are building into our systems. I think this is critical. I also believe that the only possible solution is a reserve that helps to cushion the inevitable failure, a real insurance rather than a hedge built artificially from an equation. But I understand that even this makes failure a little too cheap if done improperly and requires an understanding of the social risks (which need protection) and the personal risks (which must be taken for a free market to work). More than anything, Minsky's connection between macro policy and micro motivation is very compelling. I have made what I call "Connections Analysis" the core of my own approach, looking at neither individual nodes and actions nor the systemic whole, but the connections that make a whole out of parts. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/category/people-culture/systemic-connections/?orderby=ID&order=ASC I'd love to speak with you some more on this topic if you are interested. I feel that my role as a "hobbyist" is to translate great works like Minsky's into common language so that the lessons can be brought to a wider world. Thanks again for your great contribution - I hope everyone follows the link and sees what a great thinker Minsky was! |
2011-08-25T02:40:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9435 |
| Dale: Interesting point. It was one Hell of a diversion, wasn't it? George Orwell has to be weeping somewhere. But we were always at war with Eurasia, er, Iraq. |
2011-08-24T20:43:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9427 |
| Alan: I hope we can all do our part. Confronting reality is NOT scary - it's liberating! There are things we can do to get control over our own destiny! Jim: You are referring to this, I think: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/12/29/overnight-wonder/ You are right, there is a clear pattern of hiding important data from the population. I think this all deserves more explanation than we are getting. |
2011-08-24T18:15:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9425 |
| Alan: As you know, I have been trying to get people to focus on both the reality of this situation and the simple fact that there are many things we can try and probably turn it around. People really weren't paying attention before the debt ceiling debacle - but they may be right now. I think interest is finally peaking - but it is about a decade too late. I think it's pretty sick that people take so little interest in their collective futures, but that's the selfish world we live in - selfish to the point where people clearly act against their own interests. Very stupid, if you ask me. Anna: I wish I knew where the data was all along. I held off writing this post because I don't know why the revisions are so heavily downward in any technical sense - but with Friday's deadline approaching I decided that the difficulty in finding a good answer was a story itself. |
2011-08-24T15:53:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/24/downward-revision/#comment-9421 |
| Jim: "Too big to understand" is a much worse problem than "Too big to fail". I don't think we're totally there yet, but it certainly seems like it at times. The big thing is that the US has lost control of most of its destiny, I believe, and we're having a hard time adjusting to that. I think we can, and should, be able to make sense of enough of what's going on to have enough control over our destiny. Laurie: You're far from alone in the pursuit of this "hobby" - that's why I took off from it. I hope you can see that in the comments. A liberal arts education never really stops, that's true, but I can't help but think there is more to it right now. Ever since the big flare-up in Washingtoon there seems to be a new interest in understanding the world. I can't help but wonder if that is the start of a movement that could lead to something far bigger. |
2011-08-23T13:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/22/hobbyists/#comment-9409 |
| Kris: In bad times, art is the first to go. But then again, during the last Depression there was a fair amount of money put to public art - and documenting cultures through music, visual arts, etc. But we don't seem anywhere near enlightened enough now, so ... yeah, it's at the bottom of the list. The other aspect of The Five that is important is probably that they came out of the middle class that 2-3 generations earlier started to take a strong interest in music, making the "Rockstar" career of van Beethoven possible (a much earlier Barataria piece ... :-) ). Rich people dabbled in art a lot, but never people with "day jobs", at least not in such an organized and deliberate fashion. But it's been done a lot since then. Why not in the fine art of ... connections? :-) |
2011-08-22T21:20:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/22/hobbyists/#comment-9395 |
| Dan: Hey, how are ya? It may not be possible to know everything in this world, but there are some things that you have to know to be a good citizen. And I honestly think that intuitively most voters do "get" what is important, on average. People can understand a lot more with their guts than their head. I'm starting to think that the problem is two-fold - we're taught to not trust our guts, and we're actively discouraged from voting by all the BS that passes for "debate" in politics and the media. So I guess if I was to organize, it would be along those lines. And Rupert Murdoch might be the best target to go after. Just thinking. |
2011-08-22T20:34:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/22/hobbyists/#comment-9393 |
| Anna: What I mean by organizing is more or less what The Five did - which is to say trade notes, give each other encouragement, and so on. We do that a lot here now, and it's great, but we could step it up a notch. Yes, the target is "the system" - which Alinsky will tell you is a losing battle. A real movement would involve a more personal target than that. I'm curious what people think is the real problem. You named "special interests" ahead of even pols or the media. Can we define that better? Dale: The signal to noise ratio on the 'net can be very low, yes. I keep thinking about a list of articles on the side here as a way of highlighting good stuff I find around (and what others recommend!). Jan: It is a matter of putting it together from what I can tell. Aggregators have always fascinated me, but I have yet to find one that is really good. I'll let you know. |
2011-08-22T17:38:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/22/hobbyists/#comment-9391 |
| Sheryl: That's what probably will happen. The current plan is a weighted basket of US Dollars, UK Pounds, Japanese Yen, and Euros. I would add some gold in there and call it a party. It would ease us out. I think the Dollar weighting is 50% at the IMF right now. | 2011-08-22T01:08:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9377 |
| Laurie: You've hit something that I've been punting on because I'm not entirely sure about the figures. The report that The Nation article refers to is here: http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/the-deficit-reducing-potential-of-a-financial-speculation-tax I think they are proposing a 1% tax on all short-term trades to raise $150B a year, but they do not spell it out clearly. Hard-core Friedman Supply-Side Conservatives always tell us that a reduction in the capital gains tax creates jobs - often concluding that the rate should be zero. I both agree and disagree with this, figuring that the truth is always in the details and the rate (Zero? Really? Come on!). However, short-term trades, while improving liquidity and performance of the market, do not add anything to growth. Some tax like this should be a "gimmee". However, there is also a lot of merit in tax simplification. This is a complication that may well be justified but I think has to be seen in the context of simplification - which starts with the elimination of a bizarre array of tax credits for all kinds of things that make it possible for many people to evade taxes all together. It's the centerpiece of the Simpson-Bowles plan and I think it's where we have to start. So I've punted on this issue - but you are right to bring it up. There is a terrible "tax" on job creation that comes from the Dollar Standard and the tremendous overhead per employee that comes from both regulation and simple standard business operation. Offsetting that effect by taxing short-term trades as a way to raise revenue seems to return the system to balance. I think you have convinced me. If the Democrats develop any guts at all this will probably have to be a part of the package they propose because the revenue is high and the effect on the economy is tiny. I should add this to the list of six items that I put forward as a platform some time ago, along with a few items suggested by commentors at that time. Thank you! |
2011-08-20T15:39:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/19/stock-pigeons/#comment-9373 |
| Sheryl: That was a big thing back in October 2008, wasn't it? Every Saturday brought more bad news. If that is what's really driving things, I have to say that any bad news that comes this weekend has to be at least somewhat expected at this point. We're talking about announcements from Europe, basically, which will hardly be a surprise. Dunno. | 2011-08-19T22:40:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/19/stock-pigeons/#comment-9357 |
| Jack: I don't know if it's fair to compare stock traders to pigeons, especially since pigeons appear to have some sense of loyalty. :-) | 2011-08-19T19:26:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/19/stock-pigeons/#comment-9354 |
| Anna: Thanks. Yes, the stock market is rarely rational, which is why I avoid commenting on it most of the time. But it's important in the psychology of the population, for better or worse, even as it reflects that same psychology. Leading and lagging indicator, if you ask me. Another great quote from the Soros piece: ... if a double-dip recession was in doubt a few weeks ago, it is less in doubt now, because financial markets have a very safe way of predicting the future. They cause it. And the markets have decided that America is going to see a recession, particularly after the recent downgrade of the US by the rating agency Standard & Poor's. Dale: No, that is not a coincidence. :-) | 2011-08-19T16:31:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/19/stock-pigeons/#comment-9352 |
| Laurie, I just have to respond to the "jazz" comment: Patrick: You’re a man now, Spongebob, and it’s time you starting acting like one. Spongebob: Yeah! Oh… but I’m not sure I know how. Patrick: Allow me to demonstrate. First, puff out your chest. [ Sponge does ] Now say ‘tax exemption’! Spongebob: Tax exemption. Patrick: Now you must acquire a taste for freeform jazz. Seriously now: Barataria is about connections - people to people, people to ideas. How people form communities, online and real world, is an important part of what makes us human and how humans connect to the world. Here are examples of communities, all of which are rather unique. What caused them to form? What drew people in the first place? Some sense of quality or relevance to their lives is definitely important. That's what I want to learn from this list more than even trying to find something more to read. But you're more than welcome to put out some partially baked ideas 'round here - I certainly do all the time. :-) |
2011-08-18T18:55:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9338 |
| T: I hadn't heard of many of them either, but they all have active communities of their own. People found them - and became loyal contributors and readers. There is always something to learn from the rest of the world, IMHO, and the success of these blogs says something. I presented this because we have so many great examples of solid online communities presented here, and every one of them is different. If nothing else, the sociology is fascinating. | 2011-08-18T16:34:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9336 |
| Meghan: Me? Do SEO type stuff? Never! :-) Conventional wisdom is often useful as the thesis - "things are this way". That always begs the antithesis, "things are not that way". And that leads to a good experiment to judge how things really are. It's all the scientific method attempting to chart a new world - or, as I usually offer, a different world that's more like the old one than we like to think. :-) | 2011-08-18T12:54:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9334 |
| Jack: I was hoping you'd come in, right on queue! Because the flip side of what Dale was saying was ... a bit of creativity! Not all of the Top40 have that - in fact, most don't - but some of the, like Danger Bay, really stand out. It's like South Park for adults. :-) | 2011-08-17T21:46:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9328 |
| Dale: Something like that. And yes, I think nearly anyone can teach themselves to write better. To me, it starts with open eyes, a strong desire to improve, and the ability to edit your own stuff critically. That's the brain, heart, and arm (sorry, got the order reversed from the usual) that it takes - but anyone can do it. This is a minority opinion, but I think with time it will catch on. Also, I think people should really care about their readers and have a desire to be relevant, which is to say not just spout what they want - but most people can figger that one out easily enough. |
2011-08-17T20:40:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9326 |
| Jan: Thanks! This is a topic that has been important to me from the start, because as you know I have always seen Barataria as an experiment to prove some of that "conventional wisdom" wrong - that blogs can be substantial, relevant, and rely on traditional reference methods to build complex arguments. I see it as a success. But more and more I see that very few blogs which follow the conventional formulae are all that successful, measured by a sustained community and a high degree of interaction that persists. Besides, "relevance" is something that only the readers could ever choose, really. Anna: Interesting observation! Paul Tosto has one at MPR, but I haven't looked over there in a while myself. I'll try to think about more. |
2011-08-17T18:20:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/17/peoples-voice/#comment-9324 |
| Ron: I don't think they understand the implications completely, but I do agree with them that abandoning this standard has some major benefits for us. Right now, we have little control over our own currency, directing our economy in a direction that does not favor the working middle class. Naturally, it is possible to lose this standard AND ignore the policies necessary to support a middle class nation of citizens, but I do think that the standard we have now has horrible tilted things for far too long. If nothing else, I think the loss of the Dollar Standard is inevitable and should be prepared for. This can't hold forever. |
2011-08-17T16:28:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9321 |
| Kevin: Thanks very much. No, I am not the first to call "Depression!", but I am the most obnoxious. :-) This is hard stuff to explain, and I think about it often. I corner people in bars and practice my schtick before I write it here. It's not easy to do, but I enjoy it. Call it a very strange hobby. Oh, and I am indeed available for ghostwriting and related services! Kevin: There are many reasons why this isn't explained, and most of them are pure laziness. The biggest issue is that the "experts" who learn this stuff often learn it along with a ton of jargon and forget plain English. I refuse to do that, and I work at it constantly - a very minority preference. I really appreciate that you said the Powers that Be(tm) are covering up their incompetence - I believe that is very true. However, in their defense this is an unusual situation that requires deep thinking "outside the box", so people like Larry Summers were easily caught trying the same, old same-old and it didn't work. Never explain with malice what can be explained by laziness or incompetence, I always say. And I don't think malice is necessary to explain a thing here. And thank you very much for your kind words of support! |
2011-08-16T21:20:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9315 |
| Laurie: The Dollar Standard has not been written about very extensively in terms that most people can understand. It's not really that complicated in how it works, but the implications are. China, for its part, has been playing by the rules - and winning - but they are now starting to question the rules for some pretty good reasons that include the fact that they are likely to hit the wall shortly. Gold? Hard to say what its future really is. In inflation adjusted terms we're not at an all-time high. I do think that it makes sense to price commodities worldwide as a ration to some other random commodity, and gold is as good as anything for that. So between the tradition and the need for something truly distributed we could see it again - but outside of the Gold Dinar there is no serious proposal yet. |
2011-08-16T13:57:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9312 |
| Thanks, Sheryl. In case you didn't notice, I'm backing up a bit from last week's post on the Death of the Dollar because it dawned on me that people weren't "getting it" quite like I thought. China is a good example to use. | 2011-08-15T20:41:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9310 |
| Jim: Thanks. It's worth thinking about, and strangely very few people understand this. The system as we know it clearly benefits people with money (ie, people who think of shopping as entertainment) at the expense of those who need jobs, so it's important to think about. Dale: Think about this from China's perspective - they've been sucked into this mess doing nothing more than playing by the rules. And now they have a lot on the line. They can ask for "international supervision", but we all know that they won't get it - we'd never give up sovereignty over our own currency. But ... at some point they will insist on doing something. That's when the Dollar Standard comes to a crashing halt - unless we can ease our way out of it. |
2011-08-15T17:44:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9308 |
| Anna: What this means is that we have not had full control over our own domestic economy for a long time, preferring instead to run the rest of the world. I'm having trouble piecing together the argument, but it seems to me that what we have been doing has benefited the upper class greatly at the expense of working people who need jobs that allow them to develop skills gradually (like manufacturing) and thus move up in income. We have traded cheap gizmos for the security of our own people, and I think that's been a crappy deal. Yes, there will be pain when the US Dollar standard finally ends. But we can manage our way past it - and take advantage of the freedom we will have to benefit a forgotten class of people. As long as there is not hyperinflation induced by a rapid change we'll be OK, I think. I certainly think the policies we've had are exhausted and have run their course. |
2011-08-15T15:33:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/15/fear-the-dragon/#comment-9305 |
| Frederick: "Sanctioned" is a word that has two rather opposite meanings in common use, that's a good one! "Legendary" is another fun example, although "From song and story" brings those two definitions together in a sense - the strong image is a very fun one no matter which way you're going with it. Excellent examples! | 2011-08-14T13:17:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/12/awfully-artificial-2/#comment-9295 |
| Thanks! Just wanted to do something silly for Friday - been a pretty serious 2 weeks. :-) Anyone have other words that changed meanings? |
2011-08-12T20:02:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/12/awfully-artificial-2/#comment-9287 |
| Laurie: I think journalism as a career is at least on hold for the time being, but the skills taught are going to continue to be valuable. I think the world is figuring out the value of free content to drive traffic, which is to say that it has to be monetized somehow, and there is some understanding that quality matters. Actual paid content is still really up in the air, but I can see you agree with the NY Times that it is worth it when it's good. It's a matter of time to shake it all out. I'm just pleased that there is some recognition of quality - and thus maybe some pay for it. | 2011-08-11T17:38:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/10/value-of-information/#comment-9279 |
| I also think that more and more pocket devices means that people will want this kind of service more all the time. And that also makes transit a lot more appealing, which is good! :-) | 2011-08-10T21:58:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/10/value-of-information/#comment-9257 |
| Jim: It's the value of the brand that matters, and that's built over time. The model they have, which includes some free articles, is a good hybrid that has proven itself. What more can I say? | 2011-08-10T19:48:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/10/value-of-information/#comment-9255 |
| Anna: I think most people "get" the free market, but some are always scared of it. It isn't always manipulated by large companies, although companies don't get a whole lot bigger than the NY Times in the journalism biz. I agree on the commoditization of information - it is pretty backwards, but it's also a mature industry undergoing a momentous change. It will take time for people to be used to paying for news, but there is at least one sign that given a good brand name people will. Interesting at least! | 2011-08-10T17:27:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/10/value-of-information/#comment-9252 |
| Dale: That was a funny rally. I think the best that we can say about that is they wanted to rally, so they did. I heard some talk about bringing US Dollars back home - repatriating would be the short way of saying it. If that's what is being discussed, we are preparing for what I wrote about here - US Dollars for the US, not for the rest of the world. I think it's code for pros to prepare for the end of the Dollar Standard. |
2011-08-09T20:32:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9241 |
| Alan: I was just teasing you! I agree, the disconnect within the DFL is alarming. It's as if no one, anywhere, believes in organizing any more ... except the Tea Party folks, that is. Does anyone wonder why they have hugely outsized influence? And I certainly don't blame them for doing it, either - I blame "our side" for having apparently given up. I guess that is what is really frightening in all this. I also agree that the shutdown was our chance to shine, but we didn't . I'm running a campaign now and we're trying some new things to connect to people in new ways. I'd like to report back, but I can't reveal secrets yet. We also have to see how well it works. |
2011-08-08T23:18:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9236 |
| Laurie: Sorry your post got stuck in the spam-trap for a bit (links do that!) but these are good links - thank you for them. They argue what I've been saying all along - that this is more like a Depression than anything else. Well, they don't use that term, but ... I'll give them slack for calling the problem just what it is and outlining why it needs more a active response. :-) This is a serious situation, whether you want to call it a Managed Depression (as I do!), the Lesser Depression (Krugman) or a "Great Contraction" (Rogoff). The analysis is the same, and the way out requires tremendous leadership - and brutal honesty about the pain. So far, we're getting nonsense and that set up the manufactured crisis that is certainly going to make it worse. (Want me to go further in blaming Obama, Alan? :-) ) |
2011-08-08T19:48:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9234 |
| Dan: Yes, we can expect that even in the short term the USD will drop in value and gizmos from overseas will cost more. All we can hope is that the main effects occur gradually enough for us to scale up our own production, but I seriously doubt that will happen. It's when oil goes up for the same effect that we are in trouble, IMHO. |
2011-08-08T17:58:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9233 |
| Jack: They are dangerously stupid. I can't think of any other way to describe them. Alan: Fair enough - I do blame Obama and despair that he is now their captive. He has little room to squeeze out of this jam. I don't know what to say about him anymore. I hope he isn't completely irrelevant yet. Anna: No, I don't think anyone understands just how we got where we are. I think Alan is right that when you describe our real power as economic people "get it", but the source of that power is less obvious, I think. |
2011-08-08T16:13:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9229 |
| Yes, that is exactly what is happening here. It may have been bound to happen eventually, but just 5 years ago it was hard to imagine anything replacing the Dollar - and now it's starting to look like a necessity for a lot of nations. If this goes down as I think we can reasonably expect over the next few years it'll be all those idiots' fault. And they will probably try to find a way to blame Obama for it. I can only hope that we do get the boost in manufacturing as part of the package because the rest of it looks pretty nasty. |
2011-08-08T15:20:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/08/death-of-the-mighty-dollar/#comment-9225 |
| Meghan: Thank you - our discussion on this topic has a lot to do with going this direction, and I think it's a good one. I think people do know a lot more than they might think, but a lot of it is in their guts - intuition tells us things our brains can't totally wrap themselves around. But I don't think we'll be comfortable with that unless we can talk it out and say, yes, that does make sense after all. The extent to which this world is different than everything that came before it is that humans and their tech define their own world more than ever before - we're not as beholden to weather and natural cycles as we once were. But if we created this world we can understand it and manage it. It's ours. Leaving it up to "experts" or kings or others to take care of is one way of dealing with it, but they all have their own agendas and limitations. There's a point where we all have to know just how we fit in if it's going to work for us - or sometimes work at all. No one smart ever said democracy was easy. But it's still a lot better than the alternatives. |
2011-08-06T14:39:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/05/fear-itself/#comment-9208 |
| Jim: That's .... sort of what I had in mind, but not as nicely put. :-) I have been waiting for the noize to quiet down, but if anything it's gotten louder. I think it's time for those of us with quiet voices to say our piece and not worry about who listens. I've been saying the Emperor has no clothes for some time - and that we can see why the Empress has a thing going on the side, too. But I think a few people are finally interested . Why not step it up a notch? | 2011-08-05T19:35:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/05/fear-itself/#comment-9205 |
| Anna: I hope to start a discussion on twitter or, perhaps, google+. The advantages of the latter are that we don't have a 140 character limit and the thread stays around so people can come into it when they want. But I'm exploring other options, too. Might do both. If I do this on twitter it'll start Saturday or Sunday night and the tag will be #EconChat - look for it and we'll see where we go. I hope to do something very open where we all understand that we're not "experts" but we have access to articles and papers we can judge for ourselves. Call me "facilitator" not "leader". :-) |
2011-08-05T15:54:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/05/fear-itself/#comment-9203 |
| Dan: You are right. I haven't had time to go through and figure out who really loses yet, I need to do that. Laurie: I'm just doing what I can. I hope everyone does. Saint Paul looks pretty good actually, especially my immediate 'hood - but we have work to do. |
2011-08-04T13:23:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/03/after-the-storm/#comment-9184 |
| Dale: Bingo! :-) We've allowed this monster to be created and now we have to deal with it. My only solace is that Republicans are as upset about the monster as we are - and Bohner has to feel like a total tool about now. We'll see if that winds up meaning anything. Kris: I appreciate your honesty, and add to it that I'm not far away from you. Obama was schooled bad and he's going to have to do something to recover before I'm going to feel anything positive for him. I'm trying to get a solid plan in place, something that bubbles up from the grassroots but has strong underpinnings. The more we can work this out at our level the more likely we are to get something good - and maybe, if we have something to work for, get that ol' fight back in us. But I agree that I'm not there now. | 2011-08-03T18:10:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/03/after-the-storm/#comment-9181 |
| Wow, hitting some nerves here. You guys always rise to a challenge & make me do the same! Love it! Anna: Excellent point about fear driving investment. I did neglect that here but have talked about it some more. Wall Street confuses me right now, I think they are being stupid and not watching the data close enough. But corporate profits are coming back reasonably well right now, and that's the driver. Good point on people not being ready for this message in 2008, BTW. Pat: Excellent question! The problem FDR had was placating his left, the Henry Wallace Progressives. There were Republicans but they mostly were "Dime Story New Dealers" that always counter-proposed cheaper versions of what FDR suggested. A very different (and much healthier!) atmosphere. My point is that by confronting fear as openly as he did FDR got the politics to that point - something Obama has utterly failed to do so far. Kris: I don't think we can cooperate with the Tea Party types. I think that Obama underestimated how utterly crazy they are - and Boehner did, too. I think there are far more moderate Republicans and Independents who are potential allies, however, and I do think it's important to defuse the Tea Party types. Confronting fear is my solution to that - acknowledging the reality of the situation. I know it's a lot to ask, but I'd like to hear Progressives talk that way and see how it goes as we shape a platform to move forward. I think that this "deal" is no plan for anything moving forward and we have to simply overcome it. BTW, the reaction on Wall Street shows that they are nervous about not just debt but the austerity, so we may have more allies than you think. Jim: Yes, I want to acknowledge reality and build a coalition from there. I think a lot of conservatives like you have something to add to it and I'm really glad you are here. I'm never into blame, I don't see the point of it. |
2011-08-03T16:21:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/03/after-the-storm/#comment-9177 |
| Kevin: I made that extreme on purpose - I wanted to separate out those who were just a bit worried from those who had stronger feelings. I avoided the word "worried" because it seemed a little too mushy - deliberately went for phrases people would have never seen or spoken before. And yet ... "scared" is the runaway winner. I think that means something. | 2011-08-02T00:31:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/01/taking-stock/#comment-9157 |
| Laurie: Thank you! I agree with the author very much, I'll read it again to see if I have a detailed critique. The subject is what I was getting at in my recent piece going after Krugman: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/ He's much more rigorous than I was, and that owes in part to some confusion on my part understanding just what neo-Keynesianism is all about, to be fair. I'll get back to this in a bit, thanks for the link! Kris: Thanks! I'm just trying to get a handle on what the world needs. More constant polling is probably called for, so I think that's a good suggestion. I have demographic info on my readers to go with the info I'm collecting now. Everyone: Thank you for the contributions received so far, it really helps keep me going! |
2011-08-01T22:30:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/01/taking-stock/#comment-9155 |
| Jan: Yes, this will guide what I write about. I'm very curious what people think - and I know I have a lot more readers than those who leave comments. Had to tease 'em out! :-) Sheryl: You didn't go on long at all, don't worry. :-) I appreciate what you have to say because I'm hearing a lot more empathy for those who are scared and angry than I expected. That says to me that there is a chance that people - not politicians! - can maybe work this out. I'd love to sit down with pros of some kind and talk about this. Anyone with a radio show want to invite me to be part of a panel? :-) Everyone - some early results are in and I'm really impressed by a few things. First of all, we have a few conservatives reading, which I'm very happy about. I'll tone down my recent partisan stuff and keep reaching out to you. I also see that people are pretty solidly scared about their own future, and I'll admit that I am, too. All of you think this is either a Depression or part of a long-term decline, which is say you think this is a very serious thing - that's not reflected in the media, IMHO. You're more interested in how to read the news and possible solutions than anything like "blaming", which is also very cool to me. Lastly, the blame is scattered around pretty widely, which I guess figures since that's not a priority for you, but very few picked "business cycles" - that was my pick, BTW, and I do think that this more or less just happens every two generations. So we'll see how the polling goes, but some solid trends are developing. Thank you all, I greatly appreciate it! |
2011-08-01T18:08:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/01/taking-stock/#comment-9151 |
| Jim: I will think about that, thanks! Dale: I was very young then, but I think I know what you mean. If it's been nearly 40 years I think we're due for a big discussion. My Dad, BTW, thinks that's where things went wrong and we never really corrected them. Jack: There is a lot of frustration to go around. I'm trying to gauge how we build that into a movement that gets something done. Anna: It makes sense, and you're very empathetic. Think of that as a way to start reaching out to people and maybe we'll be able to get something organized. I also agree that people are scared - the poll already shows that to be a popular response. What to do about it is the hard part. |
2011-08-01T15:31:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/08/01/taking-stock/#comment-9148 |
| Michael: Thank you for your comments. I completely agree that the key to getting out of this is first understanding that we're all going to take a hit - in the developed world, as you note. That is why I think that the right label is so important. We need the appropriate sense of urgency. Given a free economy, much of what happens won't be up to leaders. They can help, but they can't make it happen on their own. The key is to get the population to understand these issues - and perhaps put pressure on the "leaders". So I keep writing, organizing, and hoping. And I try very hard to not sound like a big downer. :-) Excellent points, and thank you for them. Welcome to Barataria! There are a lot of strange things around here. :-) |
2011-07-31T22:16:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-9138 |
| Alan: Yes, that is true. In many more states there weren't enough Democrats left to even get this far, however, so we'll see how they fare. Texas has been going down this path much longer than most and their budget - well, it was seriously crashing and burning. Janine: I know. It's impossible to describe. |
2011-07-30T21:20:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/27/beyond-words/#comment-9134 |
| Sheryl: Yes, per week - sorry I left that out. And it is a big number, but it's dropping rapidly. Another two weeks and I think we'll be able to see if it's a long term trend - but it's already hitting the slowest pace since the start of this phase of the Depression. Janine: It would add to this, yes. Horribly so. They need to be careful what they do because this is a very new and fragile improvement. |
2011-07-30T21:18:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/29/searching-for-good-news/#comment-9133 |
| Jim: Sorry 'bout the jargon - I think Keynes and related terms are pretty essential, but I keep thinking I've explained them already. May not do a great job of that. You are right as to what Keynes' actual theory was. He would indeed be horrified to learn what happened to his work and how it's been used to justify constant large deficits. It's something I sort of covered in this piece: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/i-still-like-mike/ I say "sort of" because the huge budget deficits on the Reagan Era were done in the name of Milton Friedman and his "Supply Side" theory, which I sort of covered in the link referred above. Thing is that in practical terms I see no difference at all between Keynes and Friedman, at least in how they have been practiced. BOTH men would be horrified! :-) |
2011-07-29T18:51:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/29/searching-for-good-news/#comment-9128 |
| Alan: You're bringing up an issue that I've largely been punting on - but I have a very good excuse. I agree that we will not see the kind of growth that we saw in the past, but I largely think that most of the "growth" since 1980 has been artificial, as it was fueled entirely by increases in consumption that include a lot of fudge - a big part of that is increased health care spending, for one. I always liked this simple article, right-winged as it comes off: http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/08/the_retail-impo.html The remaining "growth" all came from goosing monetary policy, which is utterly unsustainable. So what does a sustainable economy look like to us? How much of it might include new gizmos created by new tech? I honestly have no idea at all, and I dare anyone to say they do. There's just way too much fudge in the data we have. What I say instead is that our economy has to Restructure. In private I use the word "Perestroika" for a weak laugh. That almost certainly means a reduction in consumption, but I have no idea what category that will come from. We could easily cut our health care in half (that is, saving on the order of 9% of GDP for other uses) and still have a health care system on par with every other "mature" nation such as ours. That's huge. So I honestly don't know what to make of it. For now, I say we have to Restructure, with a capital letter, and leave it at that. I honestly don't know exactly where it goes from here. I am enough of a free market maven to say that a fluid and free market will probably find its own equilibrium somewhere - all that assuming adopt appropriate public policies that reflect the values we expect in that market (such as a reasonable health care system!). |
2011-07-29T16:55:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/29/searching-for-good-news/#comment-9126 |
| Anna: Good point. Something is broken, and I have no idea what right now. I'll let you know if I find anything. Dale: It's an improvement. Maybe not good news, but we had to break out of that 430k Initial Claims range before we'd see anything. Barring a financial self-inflicted disaster I don't think this will reverse that easily - the job market is looking up because hours of employed people are just not going down. There's still pressure to hire more, but it's held back by pessimism, IMHO. That's why solid action by our leadership would be such a great help right now - but look what we get instead. |
2011-07-29T16:01:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/29/searching-for-good-news/#comment-9124 |
| Sheryl: As of this moment, it's been delayed. They can't even get this through. No matter what happens at this point it will be garbage. The only thing that makes any sense is to raise the debt limit and begin a comprehensive round of talks on reform and budget trimming - one that includes major tax code simplification and military cuts among every single other thing. |
2011-07-28T23:27:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/27/beyond-words/#comment-9110 |
| Thanks everyone. Not much in the way of comments today, but there isn't a lot to say on this topic. Wait, that's what the post is about. Yeesh. | 2011-07-28T01:46:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/27/beyond-words/#comment-9101 |
| Sheryl: They have to put it into the "frameworks" to take a step back. It's a valuable exercise, but I think they get to "into it" to be any damned good at times. I not sure how I really feel about this overall. Audrey: It is telling, isn't it? This is why the headline unemployment rate is pointless. You can see that there's a big change in the nature of unemployment, at least. That means we can't compare today's data to yesterday's. It's one of my biggest beefs with those who talk about things as if there wasn't a huge chance that occurred - there obviously was. What do you say about it? |
2011-07-27T02:49:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9080 |
| There'll be a lot of studios in the old bottling house, and maybe some other parts of the site. I can imagine that the Rathskeller and accompanying first floor would include a lot of showcase space for exhibits. It could one incredible space, right at the very heart of the West End! So I'm very excited, too. I only focused on the Rathskeller because it's so cool the way it is now (makes for some fun photos!). | 2011-07-25T18:50:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9073 |
| Kris: Manufacturing jobs aren't all heavy lifting. Having worked in manufacturing for a couple of years I can tell you that a lot of the jobs were filled by older women. These include quality control, design, research, supervision, and a few forklift operators here and there. Generally, hard work is done by machines these days - and it does seem to me that retail jobs rely more on human muscle (possibly because people are paid less in retail). The great thing about manufacturing jobs is that there are a lot of entry positions that require only minimal skill but a lot of room for advancement as people learn more specialized skills. That's a lot of the reason that they traditionally pay better, I think. But there are a lot of highly skilled manufacturing jobs anymore that do require education (vocational and not) that would require a lot of recruitment if they started expanding. But who is going to go to school for these things unless they know there is a job? So matching that up can be a valuable function of government. It still wouldn't be for everyone, of course, but before 2000 a lot of our economy relied on well paying manufacturing jobs - 18 million of them. We lost about 6 million since then, which is to say the vast majority of the job loss that marks this Managed Depression: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/ |
2011-07-25T18:34:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9071 |
| Anna: I don't want to say that Krugman is "reckless", just a lot less concerned with the details than I think is prudent. Perhaps that's his role, and I understand that. But I think this is a time for real innovation and highly targeted action by the government - and Krugman is generally not as concerned with that. Here's an article with some good links, if a bit old: http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-the-problem-with-paul-krugmans-plan-to-fix-our-massive-debt-and-deficit-disaster-2010-6 Alan: I think the point that the systems of our world need to be put into the service of people, not power, is what we're both talking about here. And on that we completely agree. Yes, that's a bit old-fashioned Marxist in a way but I can't see any other reason for it all other than people. Right now, people are justifiably scared and hunkered down, not thriving. That's where the term "Depression" crosses economics and psychology. We have to break out of it. You're right - go back to fundamentals constantly and say, "This has to work for our people!". I try to do that a lot but didn't here. That long-term unemployment graph is one that I really want to highlight, however. People can't be out looking for work for over a year without losing all connection with society as we know it. Useful and joyous work defines a happy people generally - and we ain't anywhere near having that. I'm a progressive - I believe in progress. We can't have that while most people are huddled in a corner desperately holding on. |
2011-07-25T16:03:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9069 |
| Also, one of the things that was trimmed in a futile attempt to get this below 800 words was thanks to Kevin Andrews, a sometime commentor here, who gave me the link to the original Krugman article. Thanks, Kevin! | 2011-07-25T15:14:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9066 |
| Jim: Normally I'd say that a debate about whether this is a "Depression" or not would be a major snooze that has no connection to reality. But major policy makers are having a debate over what this is and what to do about it at a level that is very academic at times and always far removed from what most people talk about. I think nearly everyone I know calls this a "Depression" based on their gut instinct - and that this intuition is right. If we can't get the popular sentiment somehow in line with and/or influencing the bigger policy debate we have a problem as a Democratic Republic, IMHO. Dale: I guess it's been about 3 years since I really took on Krugman, so perhaps that doesn't count. It's a holdover from the old system before I had good inline links, and what's there is probably all broken: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/07/01/housing-bubble-toil-and-trouble/ I still say that his thinking is mired in the past and we have to overcome it if we are going to rejuvenate the left and make it relevant again. I just said it much nicer this time. :-) |
2011-07-25T15:00:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/25/moving-the-economy-forward/#comment-9065 |
| No new slogans, but I'll try to compile what we have & see what we can do with it. There's some good stuff here! Alan: You're absolutely right. I just saw another lengthy screed about how IRV will solve this problem, which utterly misses the point. There's never any substitute for an informed and involved citizenry. I know I won't agree with everyone, but we can't call ourselves a Democratic Republic if we can't even talk about these things (that is, without going into personal attacks, etc) |
2011-07-23T20:43:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-9046 |
| Thank you, everyone! I'll update you when we know more. | 2011-07-23T20:40:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9045 |
| Jim: We'll have to see about that. I think the adults aren't going to turn away until after 2 August. :-) Sheryl: It is pathetic, isn't it? This is what it takes to get them to do what needs to be done. Just appalling. |
2011-07-23T20:40:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/22/adult-supervision/#comment-9044 |
| Kris: It is like a big High School, except it has real power. >shudder!< No, seriously, a post like this is pretty easy and fun, but what bugs me the most is that we are a Democratic Republic, which means that in general we get exactly the government we deserve. | 2011-07-22T14:54:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/22/adult-supervision/#comment-9036 |
| Jack: Or get a second job (heck, I have about 4-5 jobs!). Or get the teens who still live at home a job (which is to say do something about the incredible unemployment rate among people under 25!). But it starts with talking about it honestly, right? We're nowhere near that. Yeesh. Anna: We'll see. I think it's starting to "take". |
2011-07-22T14:52:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/22/adult-supervision/#comment-9035 |
| Aviva: Thank you. It's always hard to say that people are different than those from so long ago, but I do agree with you. The difference, to me, is that the elites are out of touch by choice. The more we devalue work the more we develop this culture where the ruling class can separate themselves. Jefferson, Franklin, and the rest didn't exactly work hard for a living. But they respected those who did - and up against their European counterparts felt much closer to the working people of the new nation they were creating. It is a big difference, I think. |
2011-07-21T22:19:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/04/founding-fathers/#comment-9020 |
| Yup, I was researching it, too. It seems that the spelling "Rathskeller" is Old High German, which was a closer sibling or cousin language to English than Modern German. Interesting. I want to thank Tim for bringing up a very interesting topic - Thanks, man! | 2011-07-21T00:36:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9015 |
| Tim, you're right! But it is usually spelled that way locally, don't know why. I just got used to it - and that is very strange because while I'm far from fluent I can get by in German. | 2011-07-20T22:04:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9013 |
| Anna, Alan, Jack: Thanks, it's a real pleasure to see something happening - but the whole shebang is so big it is a bit scary to think about! Dale: There are plans for 270 living units between the Bottling House and the "Castle", along with a lot of artists' studio space and some gallery. I firmly believe that this "Bohemian" feel will drive what, if any, restaurant moves into the office/Rathskeller - but there is nothing set in any way at all. What I didn't talk about is the old warehouse and the vacant piece of land to the West of the property - those are up in the air as an undetermined "Phase II" at this point. It's a lousy market so we have to deal with what we have in front of us first and then branch out. |
2011-07-20T19:53:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9011 |
| It had been at least 10 years for me as well, so I was overjoyed to see how good it looks. The furniture is still there, wonderfully worn but solid! It's all set for more good times. Can't wait until something gets going. We're still not sure about details yet - that depends on the the will of development partners and a lot of math, but it's good to have Glendening on board. |
2011-07-20T16:41:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/20/rathskeller/#comment-9005 |
| Wow. Anna, that's impressive! Jack, those are good, too! We may have to whip out the ol' voting system here. Sarah: How about this for a slogan: "I'll take tax & spend over borrow & spend" |
2011-07-19T19:18:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-8995 |
| Jack, I don't think that's off topic. It's moving this more towards the direction I should have taken in the first place, which is how can we organize people to get some positive action. A few quick ideas for bumperstickers for center / lefties: "If we do not hang together we shall surely hang separately" (that's a Ben Franklin quote, BTW, on the Continental Congress) "The center must hold" "Politics is just not all about YOU" "We are stronger together than we are alone" Dunno if it's getting the right direction or not, but I'd love to hear what other people have in mind! |
2011-07-19T18:43:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-8991 |
| Dale: That's more or less the issue, yes. What would it take to organize around reform? It's a snooze as an issue, but you are right here. | 2011-07-18T18:09:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-8984 |
| Anna, that's what I mean here. We need a kind of political movement, one centered on this one very big issue. I think that to get broad support and a lot of involvement from people that otherwise might not get involved we should make it clear that there is one single goal - fix this mess. We live in a Democratic Republic, which is to say that we can't always blame the leadership for our problems - it's our job. We have to organize and come up with alternatives. And yes, make as big of a deal as possible. I think that Tim Penny had a lot of good ideas he's assembled from various places that make a good start, but there is a even more than that. I don't think we are helpless - it's still a strong state overall. |
2011-07-18T14:02:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/18/blue-ribbon/#comment-8980 |
| Thanks, Penny and Dale. Not much to add at this point. | 2011-07-16T20:12:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8973 |
| I agree, Dale. I think most people, left or right, do as well. We all seem to hate this - and for the same reason. | 2011-07-16T20:11:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8972 |
| Great points, Dale! Timing is not just for comedy, but it is a place to understand it in raw form. Someone as refined as Dr. King takes it to a new level. Thanks! | 2011-07-16T20:10:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/15/timing/#comment-8971 |
| It's an effective strategy for getting people to pay attention, or at least the only one I can think of right now. That's all I care about. I know the choices are hard but our politicians have to start doing their jobs. | 2011-07-15T18:12:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/15/timing/#comment-8963 |
| Anna, I see two possibilities: 1) It's a surrender, a punt until the mid-term election 2) It's a ploy to divide the Republicans because the most hard-core will not accept the tax increases that were part of the leadership proposal, meaning that once a Special Session is convened it won't pass anyways - garnering only moderate Republican votes. Then another proposal that the DFL backs can be brought out for a win. Naturally, #1 is by far the most likely. However, the rumblings are that it is far more complex than it appears on the surface and I just gave you my best guess as to how it would play out if that is true. Stay tuned. I hope we didn't give in, again, but it does look like we did. That's not to say that a call for real reform shouldn't start outside of the Legislature, however - it just makes it a lot harder. |
2011-07-14T21:37:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8950 |
| Sheryl: Thanks, we'll see! Kevin: You're following my reasoning pretty well - what I describe here is something that has to happen eventually, it's just a question of when. I'm hoping that by talking about it we can make it happen sooner rather than later. , so in a sense I'm cheating here. :-) I think we're largely on the same page here and I hope you can join me in getting the message out as to what has to happen. |
2011-07-14T13:34:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8947 |
| Jim, it's like Churchill said: "Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities." I think we simply ran out of other possibilities. :-) |
2011-07-13T18:20:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8944 |
| Anna: I say give it a week, maybe a bit more to get the special session together and get it passed. That does put us into late July, however, but I think this will be done before the end of the month. Alan: The Citizen's League is a good organization and it has a lot of good people. However, like all non-profits, they have to do what they can to get money, however, so they do look awfully "professional" (to put it nicer than you did! :-) ). Don't worry about that. They are the one group that could handle some genuine input from the public, especially people who have studied changing demographics. |
2011-07-13T15:03:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/13/endgame-a-way-out/#comment-8942 |
| Jim: Good point. Forgot about that piece. There are many angles to this topic and a lot of things I didn't think about! | 2011-07-11T20:25:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8926 |
| Alan: With you on age, it does help a lot. As for being "decent" vs. being actually "kind", you have me there. I grew up in something like the old South (parts of Florida were hard to quantify) and many people were genuinely kind and open. Minnesotans are much more likely to be polite, but I think on balance a bit less likely to give you the shirt off their back. Choosing one over the other is a matter of taste as much as anything. Anna: Thank you! That's kind of what I mean, although I wasn't going to go into how people dress. But that does bug me at times as well. I think your point that people who dress well are always given respect, regardless of anything, is probably quite right. So what does that mean? If we want to encourage civil discussion do we insist on a dress code? And could we do that without getting pretty rude in a different way? I really don't want to go there - but you do have an excellent point. And, again, none of that should matter online where we have no idea about the other person, so I think we do have to start insisting that people behave a bit more civilly. Thing is, if I ask people (as politely as possible) to be more civil on twitter I can hear the response now - "Who are you, Miss Manners?" And that would be the nicest comment, too. |
2011-07-11T18:37:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8924 |
| Jack: You are right - the 'net is not "in person", or at least the same rules don't apply. I have my theory that I posted long ago, which I linked to. But why don't we? And yes, newspapers have always been nasty ... two comments down. :-) Will: I do agree - ethnic groups, women, and LBGT are all better off because of what we call "political correctness". But isn't that really just an extension of the same "gentlemanly" behavior that used to be afforded every male in the majority and, in some cases, to everyone by those who were "real" gentlemen? I just think that there's a way to look at decent, civil behavior that is both traditional AND capable of growing / changing. And I do think we need it pretty badly right now if we're going to be able to talk about the political, social, and economic problems we have. Dale: Going back to what Jack said, you may have a point. I also agree that the 60s/70s may have been a turning point as politics heated up and social disorder was common. But I don't want to blame, I want to move on. We do pretty well here as internet sites go and I think most of you are good gentlemen (I do want to hear from the "ladies" because that is a much more complex subject!). So how did we get things that way here/? Can we help change the world and talk about things with a lot more people. This is not a well thunk out posting, BTW. I am very curious what other people think. |
2011-07-11T17:23:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8921 |
| Alan: Elected officials are one thing - they have always gotten nasty from the press. I mean amongst ourselves, those of us who haven't been elected to office. I don't mean this to be a political statement at all because many of the examples have nothing to do with politics. But it does influence our politics, of course. | 2011-07-11T15:51:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/11/gentleman/#comment-8916 |
| Ron, I think you may well be right. The way the sovereign debt crises are put off by the ECB and partners, rather than solved, says that there is no political will to avoid a disaster. Dodd-Frank has simply not put up the wall necessary to prevent a collapse from going epidemic and the whole system is still terrible vulnerable, as it has been since the repeal of Glass-Steagall. This is all on top of the debt ceiling brinksmanship and that lack of leadership. | 2011-07-10T19:34:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8904 |
| I just want to add that I am very dismayed that the headline unemployment rate rising on Friday was taken as a big surprise. It's like no one is paying attention at all. Here's a graph from the St Louis Fed showing the strong correlation between initial claims and headline unemployement: http://tinyurl.com/5umpuwy I'd go back further in time to show how strong the correlation is, but there was a "jump" discontinuity between 2008 and 2010 as a lot of "discouraged workers" fell off the headline unemployment rate - which only shows how fudgy the damned thing is. I'm trying to figure out just what to say about it, but the reality is that it tracks very well. Meanwhile, I hope everyone on twitter can follow the tag #ManagedDepression where I'll post articles and data as I get them. There have been some really good items lately that show how this is, in fact, a kind of Depression that we are in. |
2011-07-10T19:29:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8903 |
| Laurie: I guess that as time goes on I have to agree with you. So let's do a better job on our end here in the blog world and get done what we can. | 2011-07-10T19:25:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8902 |
| I'm not disagreeing with you overall, but now is not the time to take on Grover Norquist. If you want to demonize him you have to have more "gotcha" stuff - the way the Repubs make someone like Rev. Wright into a caricature. It takes a lot more effort and I think it's too late to pin this on him. When this is personified it has to be someone immediate who the news can pick up. That's all. | 2011-07-09T14:58:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8898 |
| Alan: Good point - "Gummint" is a dirty word, but individual parts of it remain very popular. That's the sort of language we have to use. Jim: I think a lot of people will be with you on this. It is a matter of timing and how well this is remembered. The Republicans have an even weaker hand than I thought. Dale: Grover is a blue muppet. I have zero idea why people bring up Norquist in this context because his name isn't going to do jack. |
2011-07-08T23:18:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8887 |
| Alan, this is something I've been thinking about for a long time. Should the Democrats portray themselves as competent managers of the system or as active progressives working for change? The last time I wrote about it this starkly was after the election: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/ I generally come down on the side of being good managers first, but that is so boring that it does not capture anyone's imagination. I also do not want to engage the Repubs in their games because their mission, turning people off from politics and getting them to stay home on election day, is very much the opposite of what Democrats have to do. Excitement is essential to a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) strategy no matter what I say. So you might well be right - this is the time to energize the base and get them ready for the next election. But ... in the middle of a shutdown it's really hard to make the case for government, given that there isn't one! :-) |
2011-07-08T16:50:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8883 |
| Kris, I agree with you completely here. This is a national crisis and we are just not taking it seriously. If there is one theme that I hope people take away from this humble li'l blog it is that we have to be much more serious and stop playing games with our civic responsibility. A big part of the game is not political, however, it's all about keeping score by amassing far more money than anyone could ever need to live. It's gotten way far out of hand - and people actually believe that it is all about them, not society. I don't know if you ever saw this piece from long ago: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/03/25/money/ There is no definition of "money" that isn't social in some way. It's just not all about individuals and it can never be. A society defined so heavily by selfishness has not future, IMHO. |
2011-07-08T16:10:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8881 |
| Meghan: I'm sure you are right. The Republicans have taken to liking "permanent minority" status in many ways. A big hunk of their media message is that they are victimized by the "liberal media" and inherent bias - a position that can never be mistaken for leadership. As long as they cast themselves as underdogs fighting against a DFL/liberal "establishment" they will see incentive to dig in and never retreat, a la Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachmann. People in this mindset will never take seriously the give and take of actually governing. It's all one continuous election. A very good point. Anna: That may well play out, and we'll see. I'm not one to comment in part because I really don't understand the "blame game" in the first place. I like to think that makes me more like an average voter. I think you've picked up on something that is very much worth watching and I really hope you are right on that - not just so that "my side" wins but because I would love to see that game end once and for all time! |
2011-07-08T16:05:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8880 |
| Jack: Well, I've made my case. We'll see, won't we? :-) Alan: I do agree with this - it's really up to how well the DFL plays its hand out. Staying with the poker analogies, I consider the Republican campaign to be a "tell" - they know they are bluffing and are playing the bad hand the best they can. What I think is important is the basic rules of organizing laid down by Alinsky - "Pick the target, freeze it, personify it, polarize it." The target(s) are Zellers and Koch - not "the Republicans" and not Tony Sutton. The DFL could still botch this because they play it badly, but so far the Governor himself is doing quite well. We will see - and I do expect this to drag on a long time. |
2011-07-08T15:43:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/08/a-weak-hand/#comment-8877 |
| Thanks, Ola. I am certain that most, if not nearly all, state employees are good people who would prefer to just get the job done and not pass the buck. So if I'm right about what's happening, it's a failure of leadership. That's why we pay managers the big bucks, after all, and they are the ones who get the credit AND the blame. The first step is to talk about this openly and ID the problems without blaming & shaming. From there, I'm sure that the employees themselves would be part of the solution if someone from the outside were to ask questions. I wrote this as a new administration was taking over in hope of influencing them. I've heard of some of this going on, but only on a small scale. It may be enough, but be assured that I'm watching for more evidence of an ongoing problem. Other than this pathetic shutdown I don't see any yet. |
2011-07-07T19:24:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-8864 |
| Thanks to Ron I now have google+, and I have to say that it's got everything I expected and it's far from intuitive to use. So they have some work before it's ready for prime time. However, every new user they get takes some small amount of money off of Basefook's (now) projected IPO of $100B, so I will be happy to give anyone who wants it an invite. | 2011-07-07T19:19:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8863 |
| Pat, a point well taken. British government policy hasn't always been decent, and not just to the Irish. | 2011-07-07T19:18:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/01/canada-day/#comment-8862 |
| Thanks, Sheryl! I just want to emphasize that since I wrote this the connection between unemployment and the decline of manufacturing is starting to feel more and more profound to me. If that is indeed what we have to do, a number of policy choices that are normally a careful balance become very easy. For example, letting the dollar drop may be the one thing we absolutely have to do - and screw the inflation because it just means we'll pay off our debt with cheap money later. I'd love to know what people think about this. |
2011-07-07T19:16:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8861 |
| Dale: Yes, it's annualized, and you're right that it's awfully close to the noise. Considering we're running a deficit of something like 5% of GDP and the rest of the economy is continuing to shrink. I think the term "Double Dip" is out once we call this one big Depression, yes. So if we slip back I'll just be more obnoxious about promoting the term "Managed Depression". :-) |
2011-07-06T20:11:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8855 |
| Jim: Yes, I didn't label the graph very well, did I! Sorry 'bout that. The "horse's mouth" on this stuff is the Department of Labor (DOL) and it comes out every Thursday at 8:30 Eastern Time, on a clock. Find it here: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm It's very handy to have this so meaningful and current. What's funny is that the stock market is only starting to react to this data as it's realeased - but it reacts quickly to other data like the ISM and GDP figures. Not very bright of them, IMHO. :-) |
2011-07-06T16:29:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8853 |
| Anna: Yes, that is what I've been saying all along - the one thing that has really changed in the last 30 years has been the gradual decay of the manufacturing sector since about 1968- which took a real dive at the start of this Depression in 2001. It was masked, briefly, by an increase in finance related jobs but those were purely ephemeral. Without those, the underlying problem was laid bare - and it shows us how we have to restructure to fix it. It's really very simple, but the policy makers and the news media are very slow to understand it because they are operating on the new "conventional wisdom" that wealth somehow comes passively from investment. That very wrong belief, born of the bubble economy of 1991-2008, has to be purged from our thinking before we can honestly get real. That is what I am trying to do, 3X a week. It's tough, but someone has to do it. :-) |
2011-07-06T15:59:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/06/summertime-blues/#comment-8851 |
| Alan: It came up a few posts ago - the English Civil War and subsequent fallout must have had some effect on the earliest colonies because they were left alone and had no choice but to run things themselves. Yet they remained under the wing of the mother country which clearly tried to strengthen its grip a century on once things became more stable. It's a very different experience than the Spanish, who were ripped apart by Napoleon and the colonies had little choice but to restore some sense of order on their own (thus demanding complete independence in the fervor of the times). History is fascinating this way, isn't it? I do think that echoes of Napoleon and the aftermath still rumble through most of the western world. Dale: I think we're all starting to have a "post-political" experience lately. Ideology is one thing, but getting things done is what government has to be all about. I can't tell you how many "liberals" really don't see government as the solution anymore, which is both very sad and potentially very liberating at the same time. I think that we're on the edge of some very big changes, and I hope that it gets as practical as I'd like. |
2011-07-05T15:44:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/04/founding-fathers/#comment-8830 |
| Why do I love writing this blog? Because you guys always do me one better! Yes, we have so much to achieve - but today is a day to be thankful we made it this far. Tomorrow we can get back at it and live up to the high ideals we were given, but today we can do what they did on July 4th, 1777 - adjourn for the day and holding a big celebration! | 2011-07-04T16:27:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/04/founding-fathers/#comment-8824 |
| Molson is a good idea. No one commented on the cute beaver pic! I am sad now. |
2011-07-01T21:40:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/01/canada-day/#comment-8812 |
| Anna: Here are some of the jokes I didn't use: They hate us so much they actually put George Washington in drag on their quarter. Some snide comment about Canadian Tire Money. Anything involving the "Superfluous U" like flavour, colour, etc. Their major export is bad weather in winter. And a few others involving the Metric System. Feel free to work these in as you can. :-0 |
2011-07-01T18:10:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/01/canada-day/#comment-8809 |
| Alan: I agree that the asbestos in particular is a disgrace, but on the whole their evil is much less than ours. I'll give them a day to celebrate being Canadians. Jim: I agree, I have yet to meet a real "redneck" - but since every nation has some they must do a good job keeping them at home. I'll thank them for that, at least. |
2011-07-01T17:41:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/07/01/canada-day/#comment-8807 |
| Thank you, Ron! Note to everyone: when I name my next child Ron you will know that this is the reason why. :-) | 2011-06-30T03:48:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8790 |
| Jack: I'll bet you have something. :-) Gini: Thanks, I try to make sure people don't take me too seriously. :-) I have a vision for the business use of it which may or not be correct based on implementation. It's sort of like the ads that come wrapped with the comics in a Sunday paper - and that some people read more closely than anything else. You want to know where to go on a Saturday? Open up the bar section (am I too focused on a narrow clientele? :-) ) and see what everyone is offering you, side by side - in their own terms. Businesses become content providers, as you envisioned. But it may not work that way, at least at first. But it could because it's set up properly. I can't wait to try it out! |
2011-06-29T23:41:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8788 |
| Alan: That is about the way I see it - and fortunately a lot of people in developing nations seem to as well. But to make that happen we have to keep social media from separating along lines of age, race, and class - which it very much does in the most conventional analysis of how to use it for business. We have to block that if we are going to realize its full potential and utility. As for the private companies that run them, well, I'm not sure there is a real alternative at this point but I can say that as much as I envisioned something just like google+ my only big change was an open source information sharing system more like RSS. :-) Shirley: I have the same problem at home, at least at times. It is an addiction for kids. But she says I'm a twitter addict in response, so I'm not sure I have much influence here! :-) |
2011-06-29T21:54:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8785 |
| Jim: Thanks, I think. :-) I'll make a living any way I can, and right now this gig has been going OK for me. I have a few other tricks up my sleeve, tho. Dale: I think you're right that it's no replacement, but it can help. |
2011-06-29T18:31:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8782 |
| Alan: Sorry I wasn't explicit enough - google+ is being rolled out to a limited number of people who can "invite" others to join, just as they did with gmail at first. I'm trolling for someone who can give me the golden ticket, er, invite. :-) I do agree that there is something there with facebook, and I do enjoy connecting with people from my High School who seem to have gone all over the world! We were all a strange lot, it seems, but what do you expect from Miami? :-) But can we solve the fundamental disconnection in our society with tech products? I remain skeptical, as I'm sure you are, but I am always eager to be proved wrong - this is important and anything that might help us connect and unite is worth a shot, IMHO. |
2011-06-29T16:09:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8779 |
| Howie: Good to see you, and thanks! You and I are very much on the same page regarding how much the snake-oil salesmen have wrecked the field and the great promise of social media. Google+ seems to have that well-thunk-out, grounded approach that the company is famous for - and their slow roll-out should help work the kinks out of it and allow some serious fine-tuning. Facebook really is a terrible platform for marketing, IMHO, and that simply interferes with their ability to make money other than by hype - which is to say it hurts longterm sustainability. Bleh. Newspapers figured it out long ago and, to me, that's what we're replacing over the long haul. I left that element out to keep this piece to 800 words, but I do think it's something worth thinking about as we develop SM: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/03/31/journalism-past-and-future/ Anna: I'm with you on this as well. Facebook is a first-generation attempt at this kind of thing but it is consistently half-way (putting it nicely) and set up more to chatter than to organize information in a way people can find useful. This should be a lot better. |
2011-06-29T15:52:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/29/google/#comment-8776 |
| Jack, that is the real problem we are dealing with. Not only should banking be boring, fed/state/municipal bonds should be really boring, IMHO. Whenever someone has gotten creative with them (like Orange County, California) it's been a disaster. In these pending cases we're not even getting creative, we're just being stubborn. >shudder!< It's worth noting that the use of CDSs to make sovereign debt (national bonds) more palatable appears to be an innovation for these Greek bonds that are now about to default. Thank you so very much, Goldman Sachs! Back to Dale's early question - why does anyone buy this crap? I'm starting to seriously wonder - when they get creative and/or bring in Goldman Sachs, they might as well put up a big neon sign, Do Not Buy This!. | 2011-06-28T20:30:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8762 |
| Dan, history is the actions of so many people and we're only starting to understand some of the great efforts that got us to where we are today. This is a time for more organizing and activism, IMHO. I'll look up the Green Corn Rebellion, thanks for the tip! | 2011-06-28T19:34:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/06/little-things/#comment-8760 |
| Grace: With summer actually started, I'm spending a lot of time with my kids now. It is a wonderful thing - I only wish I didn't have to work and could do the most important thing I know to do, which is raise them to be smart and kind and perceptive and the best citizens they can be. They are both well on their way, and I am very proud of them! | 2011-06-28T19:32:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/08/schools-not-yet-out/#comment-8759 |
| Jim, I feel sorry for him now, too. He blew away so much with what he did. We haven't heard about this in a while, perhaps the quiet will help Weiner get his life back together. | 2011-06-28T19:30:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8758 |
| Jim: Riots happen over stupid things mostly. A real waste, iddinit? Jan, Anna: We are all waiting. That's why I followed this up with a plan of action. I'm tired of waiting - we need to get it moving again! Try anything and see what happens, I say. |
2011-06-28T19:29:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/13/waiting-for-the-go/#comment-8757 |
| Kevin, Bob: It is my hope that we look for the obvious and cheap solutions - but more importantly, try everything and keep our eyes on the results. We have to look towards not just patching this system but restructuring it. That's the only way out of this kind of situation historically, and I am sure that our times are no different at heart. | 2011-06-28T19:27:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8756 |
| Thank you, Luiz, for your comments and support! I enjoy your work very much and encourage people to read your blog (follow the link on his name!). I do not speak Portuguese but enjoy input from the great nation of Brasil. It is very much your turn to lecture us on how to properly run an economy and I hope you enjoy it - we are due for the change! :-) What Luiz says here is that we are re-inventing the wheel when it comes to properly running a national economy. Everything that should be done is known and rather fundamental. But we reject all of that and think we can do things our own way. He is right. We are behaving very badly and the whole world will suffer for it! Stick the text into google translate and you'll get pretty close. |
2011-06-28T19:25:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-8755 |
| Thanks everyone! I'd like to do these more often, but a silly poem is no substitute for a real explanation. In this case ... well, I can't explain why it got this far, to be honest! :-) | 2011-06-28T19:20:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/24/throw-away-the-key/#comment-8754 |
| Dale, you have a good question here. Why buy debt that looks bad at the start? I think there are many answers. The first is that Greece should be rated to pay a higher interest rate in part because of that. The second is that these are put into bundles with better assets from other nations in a pan-European collection that should even out. Plus, with the Credit Default Swap it is mostly insured. So the banks that buy them only bear part of the risk of default. Despite all of that it's clear that a lot of banks fell down in one or more of these key areas, given the potential turmoil that accompanies this event. The system is clearly "too big to understand". I find that very, very scary! |
2011-06-28T19:19:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8753 |
| Anna: I think that's why the CDS situation is never reported on - it's too hard to do well. But to me that makes it more critical! | 2011-06-27T19:03:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8746 |
| Jim: I'm going to have to take a bit of a pass on this one because I'm not sure that there is anything that a CDS can do that can't be done another way (such as more conventional insurance). If their main purpose is to hide transactions then requiring disclosure will simply make them go away and that will be that. if there is a purpose - well, with transparency I'd learn a lot more about it and I'll let you know! :-) I'm not entirely against market innovation, but I do think that on balance banking should be pretty boring. Alan: That is an excellent question and I agree that the mark of a better governed nation is that they have contingency plans. There's a point where an event that's no more likely than one in a million has a potential loss of over, say, a trillion dollars - meaning that you want to think of it on balance as a roughly million dollar liability. There are a LOT of those out there right now and a plan to deal with all of this stuff is indeed necessary. But it's a big job when you have a big nation! This is what I meant when I wrote about a Fault Tolerant society a while back: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/ |
2011-06-27T16:32:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8744 |
| Alan: That's why I did allow that default might be the best thing for Greece - even though it's a horrible thing for the EU. I think the situation has clearly gone past "Too big to fail" and into "Too big to understand". You are far from alone in not understanding what is going on - I don't think anyone, including the people who have placed very big bets (usually with Other People's Money, the real OPM of the financial world). | 2011-06-27T16:13:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/27/risky-business/#comment-8741 |
| It is very sad. I did want to do a more upbeat poem, but I couldn't. | 2011-06-24T19:09:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/24/throw-away-the-key/#comment-8719 |
| My guess is that you get a pass until the fix things. So you may not have to do it in 2011. :-) | 2011-06-24T19:08:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/24/throw-away-the-key/#comment-8718 |
| Thanks, everyone. This was supposed to be more fun, but I couldn't write a fun one (been thinking about it for weeks). When I read the Senate briefing against continuing any services at all this is what came to mind - not a lot of fun, but hey. | 2011-06-24T17:49:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/24/throw-away-the-key/#comment-8715 |
| Dan: This does kinda smell like a Rockefeller Republican plan, doesn't it? Oh well. I freely admit that if was President I'd have a lot more on health care and retraining, as has been suggested here. I don't see us competing with China at all, which is why Challenge Grants that help us to come up with new ways to be 1) Energy independent, and then 2) Sustainable are absolutely critical. I think we have no more than 10 years before some kind of crisis hits - if not with China, then at least with major price increases as the Developing World keeps on developing. |
2011-06-22T21:10:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-8705 |
| Kevin: Thanks! Infrastructure improvements do have the ability to transform the economy far more than anything else, but it takes a lot of time. Then again, we could use the jobs right now - so the sooner we get started the better. Everyone: I do agree that the most important thing is to talk about Restructuring - why we need it, what it might look like, how it might happen, etc. I know it's scary and offering some relatively cheap ideas to get it started is my li'l way of getting people beyond the scary "D" word (Depression! >shudder!< ) and towards a real future. It's not hat hard - it takes thought and commitment to something a little bit more than ourselves for once. But it is the future of our nation that is at stake - nothing less. |
2011-06-22T19:08:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-8703 |
| Jim, Anna, thanks! Dale: I left those two out largely because they are talked about by other people, but that's not to say that they shouldn't be done. They are also pretty expensive - but worth it as an investment in our most important resource, our talent. I almost didn't include infrastructure in the list for the same reason but I think it's important to say this as much as possible! I'm sure there are other things that the Federal Government can and should do, but these struck me as the most obvious. We have two additions already - any more? |
2011-06-22T16:37:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/22/restructuring-our-economy-a-plan/#comment-8698 |
| There are people like that running, but they get chewed up in the process. Sadly. | 2011-06-21T18:59:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8674 |
| Ducks are funny ... | 2011-06-21T18:57:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8673 |
| Audrey: Thanks. There are a lot of lawyers in the Federal Government so it shouldn't be too hard. Besides, if Congress (antonym: progress) actually got a bill together it could indemnify the heck out of anything they did. :-) | 2011-06-21T18:56:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8672 |
| Bob: That's what I am constantly looking for. We need to break the economy free on the cheap. That means we need to break government free, too. There is no box! :-) Jan: Thanks! I am looking forward to what comes of it, too! |
2011-06-20T19:40:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8661 |
| Jim, Dale: That is pretty much what I have in mind, yes. :-) I'll put all these random ideas together this week and see what happens. | 2011-06-20T17:54:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8658 |
| Anna: Yes, I'm sure there are many things I didn't think of which could use this model! I want this to be one tool in our public policy toolbox is the main point. Energy independence is just one example! | 2011-06-20T15:58:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/20/challenge/#comment-8655 |
| Tornado: It is too easy to be considered a "sport", but it could make a good "pastime". Anna: Yes, that's exactly it! But it is hard sometimes to write good jokes. I would like people to think about it as people like Jon Stewart lead by example, is all. I'm providing backup. :-) |
2011-06-19T21:12:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8644 |
| Bob, that makes sense to me - at least play it well, fer gooshsakes. | 2011-06-17T20:45:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8635 |
| Jack, Jim: Need to work a duck into those. Or a banana. Ducks are funny. :-) | 2011-06-17T20:44:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8634 |
| Dale, I completely agree here. I'm a lefty, sure, but those who are serving themselves and are far too cautious to take action (lest they upset someone) are of no use to anyone. We need to make fun of them, too. I honestly don't think there is a "left" and a "right" that makes a big difference in this time of crisis - what we need is a commitment to get our financial house in order quickly, which is to say a commitment to compromise and experimentation. Anyone, left or right, who is too full of themselves to make that happen is a problem. | 2011-06-17T17:56:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8630 |
| I think Sarah Palin is hilarious! She has no sense of humor at all and takes everythinng very personally. She can't back down and always can be counted on to dig a deeper hole for herself. Someone that flawed is very funny, IMHO. Beck isn't funny as much, but he's so easy to mock it makes up for it a bit. Give it a try, I think you'll take the sting out of 'em quickly if you give funny a chance! | 2011-06-17T15:58:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/17/bring-da-funny/#comment-8628 |
| Alan: I think this is driven purely by the change to embarrass the Hell out of someone, really anyone. That's really sick stuff. It's gone on far too long. Anna: We can always hope. |
2011-06-16T18:40:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8617 |
| Has anyone ever done a poll on game-playing and politics? Or perhaps better yet a focus group? I'm constantly wondering how some injection of real voters and their processes/beliefs can be put into the "game". Seems to me that no one really likes this nonsense,but it keeps on keepin' on. Any ideas? | 2011-06-16T13:14:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8612 |
| Thanks everyone. "Let he who is without a voting record cast the first red rubber ball." (I'm also thinking about the stoning scene in "Life of Brian") This is the best idea on this blog yet, Jim. :-) |
2011-06-15T18:06:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8609 |
| Dan: I think we're past convincing people that their standard of living will go down unless X or Y happens. A little more desperation and people will understand that it is going down already. That's a lot of the reason I want to use the word "Depression" and create an appropriate sense of urgency. Werner: Yup. I've been writing about this for a while and I do think that it's finally at an end. You can't have real (inflation adjusted) wages stay stagnant for so long and not expect upheaval. I'm only shocked that it's taking so long for people to wake up. Alan: I accept your argument that it is time to demonize bankers and talk in revolutionary terms, even if we're not ready to start having proper riots in the street. They add nothing to our lives but take away so much. Work, especially hard work, has to be valued again. | 2011-06-15T15:54:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/13/waiting-for-the-go/#comment-8604 |
| Anna, I think they did. This piece rambles a bit too much, but the more I thought about games and how important they are the more I realized this is a vast issue. And yet there are so many people who want nothing more than to stand around and argue about the rules - as if winning is so much more important than playing. Why play at all if that's your attitude? They all lose. | 2011-06-15T15:49:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/15/unwinnable-games/#comment-8603 |
| Dale: I think you really hit the nail on the head - this is a generational problem. It's been a generation in the making and will take a generation to get out of. But what does this generation have to fix the problems and move on? I don't know that they have anywhere near the resources that are necessary to move ahead without moving back pretty far first. Which brings me to ... Dan: Yes, our standard of living as we know it has to drop, I'm sure of that. But can we have a high standard of living without so much consumption? I say we can, too, and the comparison with continental Europe is a good one. It's also worth thinking about Brasil and Malaysia, who are rising in standard of living - what model will they follow? I think we have a lot to learn. As for the Western Cartesian / reductionism, I also think you are onto something. My whole concept of Connections Theory is based on a bridge between reductionism and holistic thinking of Asia, because both have good points. Forest and trees. :-) |
2011-06-14T17:53:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/13/waiting-for-the-go/#comment-8581 |
| Jim - I know I'll come back to this. Writing about the global economy almost requires it, IMHO! | 2011-06-14T04:38:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/#comment-8576 |
| Thanks, everyone. I hadn't thought about how everyone is in the same holding pattern as Wall Street - so I guess we do have something in common after all! Who knew? :-) Rafferty: I'm not against the TARP, per se, as it certainly seemed necessary to prevent general collapse. But to not have that effort matched with what was necessary to create a genuine restructuring through this depression and create jobs is mind-boggling. A New Deal is good for people and Wall Street alike. I chalk most of this up to laziness, to be honest - on the part of both Wall Street and the gummint. Edward: You have an excellent point. Sadly, most people think war is good for an economy - a delusion that comes from the mistaken notion that it was WWII that really ended the Great Depression of 1929. So it's worth saying over and over again until you are sick of it. I'll do my part as well, because you are quite right. However, the underlying fragility of the economy and lack of any attention to detail has been a serious problem as well - 2.5 wars have only made it worse. | 2011-06-13T18:32:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/13/waiting-for-the-go/#comment-8573 |
| Interesting turn on the discussion. Can I just say that I'm naturally very shy but come from a culture that is extremely outgoing. Living here means I'm constantly conffozed and have no idea what I'm doing - especially given that I'm pretty odd to start with. | 2011-06-12T19:51:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8542 |
| BTW, if anyone wants to dispute the numbers or simply double-check my math, I can send you my original spreadsheet - or just follow the links given to build a sheet yourself. | 2011-06-12T18:53:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8541 |
| Jim: Well, I guess that settles it for me. I have no idea what the polls would be like nationally, but I can't imagine people care about it any more than they do in his district. If they still support him, he should stay. Dan: It is a general problem and that is what I try to write about. This is just on brief moment where it all crystallizes into something that I think makes a good example of how sick we are. But the disease is pretty deep, isn't it? |
2011-06-10T17:56:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8534 |
| Dale: It really should never have gotten anywhere. it's pure sensationalism. They report this because they think it sells, and maybe because they have no idea how to present real issues like the Debt Ceiling and Budget. Anna: You know I'm all in favor of more women in power. The list of nations who entered "Golden Ages" once a woman took control is quite long: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/01/feminine-power/ But we are all just human after all. Once we forget that we'll never be honest about problems like this and we'll never get past them. It's not like he is the first guy to chuck everything for a quick sexual encounter - look at Dominc Strauss-Kahn of the IMF, for an even sleazier (and more obviously job affecting) example. |
2011-06-10T14:57:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/10/the-big-scandal/#comment-8531 |
| Jack: Thank you - I can feel that already. LZ - the inter-generational war is getting to be a bit much. I think someone needs a week or two without all these fancy toys. We weren't "lame" for not having that stuff, we were real - and a lot tougher, I think. |
2011-06-09T14:06:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/08/schools-not-yet-out/#comment-8519 |
| Alan: Imagine if Al Gore had won ... wait, he did .. nevermind ... Seriously, I think about this all the time. The phrase "small and mean" is good for describing him, but there's something more casual about his smallness that defies even "mean" IMHO. Obama is definitely trying to stay chummy with the establishment, which is proving to be a bad move, but he hardly has a revolutionary personality himself. I honestly wonder if, in retrospect, McCain would not have been the best choice for 2000 after all simply because he (used to be be able to) think outside the boxes. But I can say for sure that Al Gore would have been far better than what we wound up with. The Bush Administration's military, security, economic, and social policies were rather universally the worst melange of antique leftist and rightist establishment goo possible and it was all done with very little thinking. |
2011-06-08T17:56:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/06/little-things/#comment-8509 |
| Thanks, everyone! My kids are very good and I have a great relationship with them. My oldest is about 15 now, just finished Freshman year of HS. No real problems at all, to be honest, and they are a joy to be with. | 2011-06-08T17:51:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/08/schools-not-yet-out/#comment-8508 |
| John: Thank you for your comments! I call the removal of Lady Jane Grey a "coup" for the simple reason that she was executed. That may seem a bit thin to you, but I'm trying to summarize a long history and establish patterns that many of my readers don't know about in just 800 words. Did I take a bit of license? Yes, I did. I hope you will find that this is the least of my problems (I say this knowing there are others!). But your point is well taken - Elizabeth I of England was clearly the legitimate heir by just about any reckoning. I still don't fully understand how the "Nine Day Queen" got there in the first place, to be honest. As for your contemporary politics in the UK, I will plead ignorance and throw myself on your mercy. Clearly, everyone I talk to has a different opinion and that's as well as it should be. It's clearly a complicated subject and a foreigner like me really has little business wading into it. However, in a certain sense you aren't going through anything that we aren't going through in the US except you may be a bit further along than we are in this sense. The proper role of a nation state and a centralized government in this day and age is very much up in the air in many places around the world, as it should be. Thank you again for your addition to my humble post. I do hope that we can all learn from each others' experiences and keep talking as we try to work all this national / multinational / global stuff out. I honestly don't want to see the UK break up, but I can't tell you exactly why or have a credible story as to why I should care at all. I do think we're all at some kind of inflection point in history for many reasons and the future could look very different than our past has. We shall all see, eh? In the meantime, the more we hear from each other the better. |
2011-06-08T01:48:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-8494 |
| Jan, I don't necessarily believe in conspiracies (previous posting!) but there are times when you can imagine a lot of people who want to keep their jobs all slightly slanting things a certain way and ... well, it sure acts and feels like a conspiracy. There's an old saw in science about the calculation of the charge on an electron - JJ Thompson did it first, and he was close. Each subsequent calculation was closer to what we know is the real answer, but .... not quite where we are today. The value goes in slowly towards the right answer with each successive measurement. I think this is one of those things. | 2011-06-08T01:29:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8492 |
| Dan. I'll look into that. | 2011-06-08T01:25:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/06/little-things/#comment-8491 |
| Dan, Jan: We have to learn how to talk about these issues in a way that gets people engaged. Being fun/funny is only part of it. Lisa: We can do it! I'm thinking of a "Get up, get down!" kind of feeling. Make it fun/funny/funky. But you're right, they are just bullies! |
2011-06-07T12:57:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/27/be-happy-be-gay/#comment-8488 |
| Kevin: I've been thinking about what you had to say a lot, it really affected me. Some day I may tell about the things my Dad did and what we've talked about since then. Nothing serious, but we had our disagreements. It really does shape our view of the world as kids. But I do agree that those at the top of the structure we have rather universally exhibit psychopathic personalities rather often. The power and money has clearly corrupted them, and the path to the top seems to weed out people who are decent - or corrupt them into more psychopaths. It has to change, it must. What can we do about it? I want to concentrate on that for a while because we have to all do something - no matter how small. And, as usual, I think that small is where it has to start. We're all human and we all make mistakes. A structure that does not encourage basic human decency is a structure that simply has to be replaced, IMHO. It may come to open rebellion one day. I think we have an open enough society that it won't go that far, but I'm ready for it if necessary. In the meantime, I think what we can do is to set the best example in our daily lives that we possibly can and start to reject all forms of "big" that encourage shitty behavior. That, and vote for anyone who shares these values when it comes time - regardless of political party. |
2011-06-06T16:41:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8481 |
| edadvocates (Kevin, everyone, in the future!): You were right to respond with some darkness because it was a dark piece. It was full of doom-de-doom-doom-doom, to quote Gir on "Invader Zim". That's fine as far as it goes and I'll respond to you there when I think I have my thoughts together (give me a bit). But I do not like complaining without providing a solution! Jack: Thanks! :-) Alan: I completely agree that we did this to ourselves. Contrast our response to an act of terror with the UK response to the Tube Bombings - posters saying "Keep Calm and Carry On" all over the place. We have a lot to learn about keeping what is important to us sacred and safe. But because we did this to ourselves, we can also reverse it ourselves. I happen to think it will require us to start from the little things and work up. Anna: Yes, Common Courtesy is pretty rare. Let's start a trend! Whether or not all this does stem from 9/11 (or, what I really meant, our reaction to that event that makes it a turning point) is not important. Let's all be courteous and kind and rebuild from there! Naïve? Maybe. But it's worth a try, at least until someone has a better idea. :-) |
2011-06-06T16:04:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/06/little-things/#comment-8480 |
| Not sure what to say at this point, I'll revisit this in a bit. I have an idea for tomorrow to flip this on its head and say something more positive - making two posts that I hope separate like oil and water. | 2011-06-06T04:33:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8464 |
| Alan: I like the "lying by inaction" concept. What we leave out is often very telling - it's what makes the lack of context type of lie work. Given how little people know about history it's one that's easy to pull off, too. Heck, it's not even a matter of knowing history as having a generally agreed upon version of it, right or wrong, that can provide context. And there are many examples where history doesn't even come into it. Repeating and/or going after known liars definitely gives them a credence they do not deserve. I am very sure that the Left made Michelle Bachmann, for example, by constantly attacking her. Much of this is tied up in how you attack them, however - I think that more ridicule and less sanctimony and outrage would have limited her appeal. But my fave saying remains that Bachmann is a fairy - if everyone ignored her, she would become invisible. I'm still thinking about personal responsibility and lying. Granted, a truly moral person would not lie just because they would feel terrible for it, but I think there is more. We've reached a point where honest people appear to be left behind socially and economically, which is a lot of pressure to be on the "take" like everyone else. I dunno yet. | 2011-06-04T15:09:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8456 |
| Jack: It's fun to use BS (or CowPuckey) as a technical term, meaning "the speaker doesn't even care if it's true or not". That is politics today, yes. Jim: I don't mean to make excuses for bad behavior. I think every anti-social thing I described is pretty lousy - lying is just part of it. Better? :-) Alan: Maybe I'm optimistic, but I do think that people are usually "clever" (note quotes). For example, calling emissions "air" is ... not correct but close to correct if you take 'air' to mean 'gas'. But it's still a lie because it's clearly meant to deceive, even if we were generous about technicalities. He still should damned well be ashamed of himself - but I'm guessing he's not. Yes, it is all a matter of checkbook - grabbing what you can. That's why I say the root is just selfishness. We've built a society on anti-social behavior. That's why I say we either have to retrace our steps or sit down and wait for death as a culture. There is no way forward here. Dale: I'll be as clear as possible - all of this is really sh*tty behavior that needs to be called out. There is no excuse for the selfishness that's come to define our world. That includes lying, lack of compassion, and rudeness. I'm doing my best to set an example here as I can. |
2011-06-03T21:20:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8453 |
| I think your on to something here. I agree with Alan that its optimistic to say that people rarely outright lie. But the other kinds of lie are totally constant anymore. You can't trust a thing anyone says anymore. And there does have to be a reason for that though I agree you can't even appear to be making excuses for lying. | 2011-06-03T21:05:27+00:00 | Dale Samuelson | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8452 |
| Thanks, everyone. I've been thinking about this ever since I saw the guy on the Daily Show. I just felt there was something missing - a bigger context. | 2011-06-03T18:01:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/03/lying/#comment-8448 |
| Jim, I think that's the message we have to take away from this. If you'll recall I referenced a piece by Rob Arnott after I did my write-up on the Managed Depression. The link to that other work is contained in here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/ There are some discrepancies between his calculations and mine as to the "real" Real GDP (emphasis deliberate). His numbers are consistently worse, except last year. It took me a while to find out why, and I hit it almost by accident in the commentary noted above - the inflation numbers used to calculate Real GDP are just plain fudged. I don't think I trust a damned thing anymore, to be honest, and in the future I will calculate everything on my own to the best of my ability. This is all without going into what the GDP numbers represent, which has its own share of fudge - but that part of it I think I understand and it's at least consistent from year to year. I also think this is shameful behavior and that our news providers are doing an absolutely terrible job of calling out government on its abuse of important figures - especially the utterly useless "headline" unemployment rate, aka "U3", which should never be used for anything. |
2011-06-02T20:31:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8414 |
| Anna, it is a hard concept to get your head around. I did my best in this piece: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/03/25/money/ It says right on the bills that money is nothing more than the "Full faith and credit of the Federal Reserve". In other words, it's only as good as our ability to manage it - and the faith that the world puts into that. It gets a little bit less all the time - not because we're more cynical, but because that's how they manage it. It makes sense to me, at least at an intuitive level, once I get past the idea that there is some kind of fixed value. There just isn't. Everyone has to get over that. |
2011-06-01T18:26:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8402 |
| Dale, that is about where it's been overall. It hides a lot of sins. But I do think that this is the real root of discontent in the nation right now - the "official" numbers don't match what people feel in their guts. In this case, intuition is quite right, and though we're not feeling the increase in energy (read: gasoline) prices as much as we have in the past it still really hurts. We're barely treading water - if that good. | 2011-06-01T15:59:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/06/01/inflation-and-real/#comment-8400 |
| Thanks, everyone. Never forget! | 2011-05-31T00:27:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/30/memorial-day-2/#comment-8376 |
| Jim, there is always a better way. :-) | 2011-05-29T03:08:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/27/conch-republic/#comment-8367 |
| Dan, Jack, I'm not sure. The early polls are useless, of course, but this is far closer than any other referendum has started. I think that a new direction could make this into a big surprise. If you had only people under 30 voting, BTW, I'm quite sure we would have same-sex marriage by now. So it is just a matter of time. I say we expose the cynical attempts to get people out to the polls for Republicans for what they are and have fun with it as much as we can. These guys deserve to be made fun of! Besides, most of them are real serious people who never crack a smile and try to make everything in their lives political. They won't know how to respond to humor and fun. |
2011-05-28T17:44:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/27/be-happy-be-gay/#comment-8366 |
| Anna, I'm not looking forward to it, either. The amount of outside money that will come into Minnesota will be horrible. And a lot of outsiders will bring their own messages to our state, meaning our own values will be under assault from everyone else's opinion of what we are supposed to do. Ug. Jim, I know this approach won't sit well with people at first. But keep in mind that when the Republicans developed this fight they anticipated a reaction just like what you said - calling on people to do what they know is right. I say we have to catch them off guard and hit them where they don't see it coming. |
2011-05-27T17:34:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/27/be-happy-be-gay/#comment-8360 |
| Alan: Sorry about that. Happens a lot to me a lot. | 2011-05-26T16:28:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/20/dirty-jobs/#comment-8348 |
| Dan, there's little doubt that the Chemurgy movement of the 1920s was out-spent, despite the backing of Dow and Henry Ford. I think you are very right that real agricultural advancement has always been a prisoner of high-buck politics. Look at ethanol for gasoline, for example - a really bad idea that has sucked up a lot of money for little benefit - except to raise corn prices. | 2011-05-26T16:26:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/23/playground-rules/#comment-8347 |
| Alan, that's the kind of thing I would like to see quantified. When I set out to write this I was amazed at how little information there is on containerized cargo and the infrastructure requirements. But all over the world there is a huge investment being made in this. My hunch is that rail bridges will be raised wherever possible, even at great expense, wherever they cannot double-stack. | 2011-05-26T16:24:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/#comment-8346 |
| Dan: Many people have contributed to the design of these systems, so I punted because it's hard to summarize easily. But it did start in the US but was refined constantly from about 1960-1980, when it took pretty much the form we see today. The wikipedia article is OK but it has some great links to follow. Dale: Yes, that BNSF yard is full of them anymore, spilling over to Midway Stadium and area. The CP Yard over by Pig's Eye has even more of them around - but they cannot double-stack through the Short Line. Remember when a train hit the Summit Ave bridge a few years ago? It was a double-stack mistakenly sent the wrong way (oops!). |
2011-05-25T21:22:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/#comment-8342 |
| Jan, I should have included this link with some fun facts: http://cscmp.org/press/fastfacts.asp The US has 28 million TEU per year, or about 1/4 per family. That is about 350 cu ft of stuff, or enough to fill a living room that is 16 feet square to a height of 15" - which, if you think about it, is about what happens on a typical American Christmas day. :-) |
2011-05-25T15:42:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/25/in-the-box/#comment-8339 |
| Dan, you're off on a tangent, but you know what I can't resist! All I will say now is that the real stories of Rome have yet to be told, but they are well worth it IMHO - so much of what made Western Europe lies in Rome, and it echoes until today. And the Black Panther stuff is also going to keep echoing in ways that seem pretty strange until you understand it, much as various Nazi/KKK things still do as well. I think I have a working knowledge of those, having grown up where radicalism was always just below the surface for a lot of reasons, but I could see getting a lot more "into it". | 2011-05-24T16:27:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/23/playground-rules/#comment-8329 |
| Ron, I haven't revisited this in a long time. All I can say is that whoever she is (and I'm going with "she" for a lot of reasons, mostly the touching roles for Rocky) she clearly wants her privacy for some reason that has held up a very long time. I have to respect that and let the mystery be. However, I would like nothing more than a chance to meet her and say "Thank you" for putting a fire under me when I was a kid. I know I would not care about dialogue as much as I do if it hadn't been for my chance to learn from the master, every Friday night! |
2011-05-24T16:23:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2007/08/20/juanita-bartlett/#comment-8328 |
| Dan, you pretty much have it. The Republican base has a tendency to show up, but there are a few on the fringes that they need to energize (a good argument can be made that Emmer lost as Gov more than Dayton won if you look at Republican turnout, esp. in some key areas). What I'm not sure about yet, which is why I didn't write about this today, is that a gay marriage prohibition amendment may energize the left, especially the young, which would be a disaster for the Republicans. I think at this point it's fair to say that the dice are in the air. Not something I want to have happen with what I consider basic civil rights, but if there's a fight it might be best to bring it on. It's up to the DFL to do something about this, IMHO. I'm thinking about what to do on this issue. As usual, my approach will be a bit different - but geared to raising voter turnout, for sure. I do think we need humor to engage the young - but the rest is up for debate. |
2011-05-23T17:36:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/23/playground-rules/#comment-8321 |
| Alan, you're exactly right. We can't go by playground rules and expect to get anything done - or get respect. What this does is supress voter turonout among real adults because it appears to have no connection with reality. The more we play into that, the more sure we can be that Democrats will lose. I don't know why this is even controversial, either. Jim, Dale, it's not amusing at all, is it? And it is getting weirder all the time - in large part because the "entertainers" have real power. They are holding the red rubber ball right now. Holding it and making sure no one plays with it while they go on with their histerionics. Bleh. |
2011-05-23T16:37:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/23/playground-rules/#comment-8319 |
| Molly, Dale, thanks. It's just a matter of values in the end, which are clearly reflected in the "value" we put on doing actual hard work. I'm not the best example in the world, I admit, but I got a degree in Chemical Engineering because I wanted to make stuff for a living - I would prefer to get dirty. I used to beat up clothes like you wouldn't believe when I had a lab job. But there's just no pay in it. That's sad. Alan, it's been said that "Machines should work, people should think". That's great as far as it goes, but someone has to keep the machines running. And who gets the benefit from what the machines produce? Ultimately, a nation's wealth is tied to what it makes and that has to include real, physical stuff - we live in a real, physical world. Intellectual property is fine as far as it goes but, like investment, it doesn't generate real wealth until someone puts it into practical use. |
2011-05-20T15:01:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/20/dirty-jobs/#comment-8270 |
| Dale, I do not know why there is such hostility towards this plan from the left from the Social Security angle. An example from Daily Kos is here http://tinyurl.com/6fg7k24 and I and have to say that it's not particularly coherent as a policy discussion. For the record, I completely disagree with Simpson that the retirement age has to be lifted, and even proposed a system where we can have people as young as 55 voluntarily retire to make room in the economy for the next generation. Raising the retirement age only increases the size of the labor force at a time when there's an excess. However, the discussion Simpson is leading is long overdue and has to happen. And this says nothing about the rest of the plan, either. So what are the objections to this plan? I haven't found anything that tells me that my initial read - this the start of the way out of the darkness - is in any way wrong. |
2011-05-19T03:20:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/18/dangerous-games/#comment-8242 |
| Jim, I did forget to include a link. Simpson and Bowles did not get the 14/18 votes necessary to pass their plan on to Congress, hitting only 11. So, technically, it's dead - but can be brought back at any time if Congress wants to. The two are still shopping their plan around: http://tinyurl.com/3npjk84 Because it didn't pass the bipartisan commission the plan received little attention after an initial flurry, but among policy geeks like me it's still seen as the best hope for a compromise. |
2011-05-18T15:56:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/18/dangerous-games/#comment-8219 |
| I don't think there really is a macroeconomics, and to be honest I never really did. It's a question of how you can possible add up all the microeconomic effects into one big integral. That's what gets me talking about Connections Theory and all that other stuff. I'm also a huge fan of Game Theory for this reason. Age of Fracture? I call this the Fractal Era, never heard the other term. |
2011-05-17T19:15:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-8192 |
| Dan, you get full credit for bringing Iran-Contra to my attention, yes! And I do remember those hearings very well. It's probably what made me a Democrat - well, that and Mike Dukakis (as I wrote about back in January). Democrats may be ineffective, disorganized, and a bit cowardly but in the end they are ... well, I dunno, there's something I like in there. :-) Oh, wait, I have it - Democrats at least give a damn about things other than themselves! | 2011-05-17T19:12:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/#comment-8191 |
| Dan, sorry for the slow response. Been very busy! I do think that most people want to contribute something to the world. Your example of a small community would have even more pressure on everyone to do their part. It also probably helps a lot when it is pretty obvious what work needs to be done because it's right in front of you. Thinking about what's different in the modern world, I came up with two things that are very different from what you describe - and makes me think that this is a very useful way of looking at things. One is anonymity - where people can slip through the cracks and feel isolated (which is sort of what I think Kafka was getting at). The other is a high degree of specialization, where it's hard to know just what you have to contribute to the world (something I struggle with quite a lot, since my chosen specialty of chemical engineering is not in high demand right now). I think this is a very good way to look at things. As I said, I do think nearly every one wants to contribute something to the world - which I guess makes me a Marxist at heart. You've given me a lot to think about, so thank you very much. |
2011-05-17T19:09:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/16/structural-unemployment/#comment-8190 |
| Alan, we posted just past each other, so I didn't see your comment when I responded. It looks like we said about the same thing at the same time - but from different perspectives. I do not disagree that what we have is a direct result of a generation-or-so long lack of investment in infrastructure, people, and all the things that government needs to invest in. I've written on that many times before. But what can we do to go forward? Man, it's hard to know. But the disconnect between our politics and reality is definitely the biggest problem we face - because until that's corrected I don't see us tackling anything real. |
2011-05-16T18:19:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/16/structural-unemployment/#comment-8185 |
| Anna, yes, I think someone should be calling for that. Which leads directly to: Dan, I see your point completely. There's no appetite for a big new program. I've been calling for smaller programs such as a focus on reducing the overhead per employee - a natural public / private partnership that benefits business. To me, that's a minimum, and the fact that we haven't gotten that far is very disturbing. Beyond that, a major job training program may be a bit much to swallow, but the more information about developing jobs can help people make decisions that guide their own training - again, a real minimum. It may be too much to ask as well. But - and this is very important - I don't see the private economy restructuring in anything like a reasonable time without this kind of restructuring in government and politics. People have to start demanding much more and much better from our politics. This is what has propelled my writing on the topic for the last 4 years. |
2011-05-16T17:48:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/16/structural-unemployment/#comment-8184 |
| Alan, when I say "success" I mean they accomplished their goals - including secrecy. The whole operation seemed pretty ridiculous to me from the start, especially our fear of Daniel Ortega. But they did pull it off, or at least nearly so, before being discovered. That almost never happens, from what I can tell. Anna, I didn't want to name any names because I don't see that they are important at all to this story. It's all a diversion and a rather transparent one at that. Feh. |
2011-05-13T19:42:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/#comment-8153 |
| Alan, I know governments and big biz "conspire" all the time, but I was trying to think of the more popular definition - an elaborate scheme conceived and executed entirely in secret. People always talk and operations like that are found out pretty quickly. But Iran-Contra went along for quite a long time, with great success, before Hasenfus was shot down. I think that by the time it was discovered the major goals had been achieved. That is pretty unusual, from what I can tell. I looked the other way at a lot of Arnott's language, as I usually do when reading this stuff. Yes, people in these kinds of places have very different friends than you and I (as does Paul Krugman, BTW). But I think he has something very important to add to the discussion, and it's a lot more elaborate than what I was saying (but in principle the same). I'm always looking for new perspectives and this one count as one worth listening to, IMHO. But I do wish he'd stay with the facts, yes. |
2011-05-13T17:37:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/#comment-8150 |
| Jim, thanks! I don't think that angle was ever proven, but I remain very suspicious. Another point worth making - in the piece on conspiracies I noted that Southern Air Transport was a well known CIA front operation. The airplane that Eugene Hasenfus was shot down in over Nicaragua was owned by Southern Air Transport, if I remember correctly. There's a definite tie-in. | 2011-05-13T16:38:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/13/loose-ends/#comment-8148 |
| Pat, it may come down to simple war profiteering. It's classic, I'll give you that. But it's so lame - all that for a few bucks? I guess if we can't come up with anything else we might have to go with it. It just doesn't make for a good conspiracy theory in my opinion - there are other ways of looting the treasury. But it also got Bush re-elected and a solid Repub majority to do what he wanted. Perhaps it all adds up in the end to a good conspiracy after all. |
2011-05-12T14:20:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/11/conspiracy-theories/#comment-8132 |
| Alan, I do agree that we value intelligence more than intuition and that drives people to be a bit less honest than they should be about who/what we are as a species. I'm a scientist at heart (well, an engineer by degree) but it alarms me no end how much faith people have in science. It's horribly misplaced and lacks any good context because we are so dishonest about what it means to be a chimp that stood up on the savannah and looked out over the horizon. Anna, I think that there are no plotting geniuses (geneii?) outside of cartoons. Just a lot of plodders, not plotters, and some can take advantage of the situation well. I tried to find counter-examples, but I don't think they exist. Who knows? Dan, I forgot that the CIA numbing the population conspiracy came from the Black Panthers. I think they did have a point, but it was a bit inflated. Most conspiracies probably have that kernal of truth in them, eh? | 2011-05-12T02:41:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/11/conspiracy-theories/#comment-8125 |
| Alan, I'm not sure I want to "go there", but I think I can separate out the good use of religion/spirituality as a kind of personal centering from the bad use that wants to force the world to be in a certain image. If I can add that I'll agree with you. There are a lot of things in this world that none of us can really understand intellectually, but a system that helps us accept them and focus ourselves to move on, irrational or not, is still helpful. When that lashes out it can be very destructive. Yes, it's very similar in that sense. Jim, I don't know what if anything is at the heart of that set of theories. It certainly has been a living for a lot of people. I do believe in the lone gunman, but a conspiracy that put him there is always possible - yet I've never seen anything that seemed plausible to me lay it all out. |
2011-05-11T15:09:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/11/conspiracy-theories/#comment-8113 |
| Dan, in many ways Depression is more than just a severe Recession. I think the real issue is that in a Recession a major industry has to restructure, but in a Depression the whole economy has to. It seems to be something that happens every 2 generations, so there is something about investing / work habits in there, too, I think. jd, good to meet ya, and "have to name it to tame it" is a tag line far to excellent for me to avoid stealing at some point! :-) I think most politicians and economists are being cowards on this one, I really do. |
2011-05-10T19:42:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-8083 |
| Been super slow to respond - turned into a bizzy day. OK, Dan, I agree that a real Free Market is strictly an ideal that has never been realized. As I've written before, pure Capitalism is very often in opposition to the Free Market, something that people never seen to quite "get' 'round here. I'll go as far as to say that it is probably true that we only have these periodic Depressions because there is no real Free Market in practical terms. |
2011-05-10T13:08:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-8075 |
| Thanks, everyone. Jim, I have been getting a lot of questions lately as to what the Hell I was talking about as I use the term "Managed Depression" pretty often. I hate to repeat myself, but the discussion of this stuff goes back nearly 4 years and it's a bit disjointed. New people are reading me and I have to explain this. Besides, I do think things changed very suddenly here and we are about to get real (I hope!). Would it be better to let the Free Market just run its course? In the long run, the answer is a definite "yes", IMHO. However, people have this strange habit of eating every day. A hungry population is a dangerous population and can cause a lot more destruction than the Depression itself. Then again, some creative destruction is always necessary. I think we may have tipped the balance a little too far in the "no pain" direction. I say the first thing to do is be honest about what's going on. That may be a little pain, but it's not much. |
2011-05-09T16:38:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/09/the-managed-depression/#comment-8034 |
| Dan, there are a lot of things like that just going away. Some of it is totally predictable, but it's all quite painful. Jack, I think a responsible government has to acknowledge this problem and respond before it becomes a worse crisis. I almost did a story today on how 2/3 of fed spending is on autopilot, meaning that we can't do anything new or respond to situations. That's a serious problem waiting to become a catastrophe - as I think you can see. Jim, I tried to get that graph together but the data wasn't cooperating. Something weird at the St Louis Federal Reserve site. I just ran out of time. But yes, the initial claims leads hiring by 1-2 months - and reporting by about 3 months. Basically, companies stop firing before they start hiring (duh!). It's a cute trick. :-) |
2011-05-06T19:57:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/06/churn-burn/#comment-8021 |
| Anna, the net gain was 244k - so we lost at least 1.7m but gained closer to 2.0m. Sorry for the confusion, I should have labeled it better. That means about 20% of our workforce is changing jobs in a year, which is not unreasonably high but it is higher than it's been in a while. I have to hunt down the figures on the total churn in the economy, but those aren't tracked closely by anyone official. | 2011-05-06T16:13:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/06/churn-burn/#comment-8017 |
| Alan, excellent question as to how the English Civil War played out in North America - I've never seen *anything* on that topic! There had to be at least some nastiness. As for the UK splitting, I think that a "federal" solution is in the works. With a regional Parliment in Scotland, Wales, and Ulster all they need is one for England to start serious devolution. That could be interesting! I don't know about Cornwall, tho - that is an interesting development that we'll have to see. But it's not my nation, so we'll just have to let them think through what they want. I have a longer response to David K, who really made me think, that I hope to get to later. There's some interesting stuff when people share as much as the US and UK do - we learn a lot from each other, I think. |
2011-05-04T21:48:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-8006 |
| I've been slow to respond, but I think we have a good topic here. I think I regret saying that Iraq was "pointless" - I should have said "not worth the tremendous blood and cost", but we can differ on that one no matter what. The point is that it's time to move on and take care of what we should - keeping our nation running and increasing freedom and opportunity around the world (which is to say not taking the easy way out with bullets and dictatorships). | 2011-05-04T21:44:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden/#comment-8005 |
| I think we're all on the same page here, but thanks for being a part of it. If only we can get something like a movement together! Here's hoping. You never know, eh? | 2011-05-04T21:41:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/04/back-to-reality/#comment-8004 |
| A very good point, Alan, as usual. This whole sorry mess brought out the very worst in us, including the utterly pointless diversion in Iraq that killed so many people. I heard someone on the radio today trying to justify that war - and I couldn't believe he was still trying to do that. It is time to talk openly about what we did in anger and why so much of it was wrong. That is the best way to put this truly behind us. |
2011-05-02T16:45:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden/#comment-7985 |
| Jim, Anna, I do think that the media I'm hearing has found the right tone so far. It seems a bit self-centered to concentrate on our losses along the way, but I'll forgive that today. We did lose a lot and we had to seek justice for our losses. The world supported us for that reason and I hope that it continues to come down that way. | 2011-05-02T15:45:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/05/02/bin-laden/#comment-7983 |
| David: Thank you for the allowance of a bit of slop - I was trying to cram this into 800 words for people who knew nothing about it at all (but, to my mind, really should). I didn't quite make it to 800 words, but I came close. Yes, many details were glossed over as succinctly (and cheekily) as possible. But missing the Act of Union in 1707 was just wrong and thank you for the correction. I know, British people (even republicans) hate it when I say the Windsors are of German descent, and I suppose that I shouldn't note that. The UK is a very diverse nation and there is room for everyone. My apologies for any offence. |
2011-04-29T22:14:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-7975 |
| Anna: This is never taught in US schools, but I think everyone in the UK knows all about it - even the bad stuff. Sharif: I've talked about Imperialism other places, so I'm not shy about it at all. You probably gleaned that I am Irish so I can see why you went easy on me. :-) It is rather amazing that a nation this ripped up on religion was able to form such an empire, but I do think that concentrating on external politics makes internal politics easier very often - so perhaps the great empire is not such a mystery after all. It may have been a diversion just as the royal family is in the end. Jim: I say it starts with Henry VIII not just for the Reformation but because he lost the last traces of land in France, forcing England to look towards the British Isles to claim its territory. They ceased being a continental power pretty much forever - and aren't really to this day. You can always argue the point, of course, and perhaps I shouldn't have included it. :-) |
2011-04-29T20:38:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-7973 |
| Gwen, it was lovely and I wish the young couple the very best. They both seem like very good people. But I just had to post this today, largely because I don't think Americans know just how screwed up everything got - and how important it was to the creation of this nation as we know it. Separation of Church and State was not just some great intellectual ideal - it was an absolute necessity to people who had seen the alternative twist through a history of terrible bloodshed and disaster. It's something I think we should all remember well. But all my best to Will and Kate. I'm always rooting for the UK, even if I do think we're better off without all this stuff. :-) |
2011-04-29T16:11:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/29/a-royal-mess/#comment-7963 |
| Anna, I don't think they did get foreign aid. I think they need to become a bigger threat first. Perhaps they should move to cut off our nation's supply of shrimp, threatening to end the all-you-can-eat seafood buffet as we know it. Jim, Dave Barry is a documentarian. Not to take away appreciation of his talent, but he does have the easiest job in the world. Just remember that Miami is one corner of the Bermuda Triangle and it all starts to make sense - well, once your moral compass starts to spin, that is. |
2011-04-27T17:11:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/27/conch-republic/#comment-7948 |
| Dale, Alan, I see a lot of cross-currents that seem to connect here. I've been thinking for a while that some kind of new institutions are needed on the left - something that does have the air of permanence that we just don't have in media or online generally. This may be a good place to create such a thing because there is a well defined need. We have DailyKos, Truthout, perhaps even (ack!) PuffHo, but what is the end result of all this? It's worth thinking about and supporting. The left always has less money but more people power on its side - that's our history. Getting people engaged is the key to a resurgent left - and it also helps keep things relevant. Perhaps there is the nucleus of a very important institution online that will make all the difference if we get our act together. I think we have identified several needs that work together. |
2011-04-26T17:54:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/25/whats-up/#comment-7933 |
| Great stuff! Thanks everyone! Alan, "infantalized" is an excellent and descriptive word. I know I can handle things for myself, but I worry for the future of our nation. I have two kids that have to cope with whatever world we're creating for the next 70 years or so and I'm not happy about it. The trend to globalism is a wonderful thing in many ways but we are getting left so far behind by insisting that nearly everything we hear about is filtered through our own narrow perspective. Jim, yes the people who watch that crap are a "fringe" at best and are NOT a significant part of the population. It's like what I always say about Michele Bachmann being a fairy - if everyone ignored her, she'd become invisible. I'd like to see most of the playground-rules games that pass for "analysis" on all of these channels become invisible. But I agree that most people take it with a grain of salt. Dale, I think you have a good point about how they all inflate each others' influence. It's like the story of having one dog or two - one dog may bark at the mailman once in a while, but two dogs will never stop barking - they keep whipping each other up. In a certain sense maybe I should think of them as one channel and they all have about 3% of the population in total, which is less of a fringe group, no? :-) |
2011-04-25T21:07:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/25/whats-up/#comment-7902 |
| Alan, I've been thinking about this some more. The reason I'd like to see it on a mass media like cable TV is that I would like to have real news play a bigger part of the discussion nationally, as it does in just about any other nation. Truthout is a good example of an aggregator, but they only have about 30k visitors a day from what I can find. But as I think about it, they and similar aggregators are about as likely to grow as any cable show is to get much over 1M viewers, so it may be that cable tv and the 24/7 news stations are just not particularly useful in the long run. I'm going to keep thinking about this. The real goal is to get rid of the fluff that pollutes our airwaves and I took off from a tangential story, the one from "On the Media" that I cited. That may be too tangential after all. |
2011-04-25T19:40:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/25/whats-up/#comment-7898 |
| Alan: Yes, but you have to find it. That's always the hard part. I do think that "curation" will be more important because there is so much in the way of news that a human or (staff of humans) who we have grown to trust can deliver things outside of our normal perspective and give us stuff we might not otherwise think of. I'm very glad to have what we do, but making the best use of it is very difficult. Anna: I'm very tired of "celebrities". There is so much that doesn't make the public discussion that would be far better use of the airtime. Ug. |
2011-04-25T16:05:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/25/whats-up/#comment-7896 |
| All ya got? That's quite a lot! These things are far more universal than we think. People feel like they have to ditch Christianity or Judaism or whatever they grew up in believing that this makes them a smarter or better person. But when we see how universal much of our traditions are and how far back into deep pagan times they that should put it to rest. I would hope people would realize that ditching this stuff doesn't make you smarter or better - it makes you much duller and lonely for absolutely no good reason at all other than your own ability to kid yourself. | 2011-04-23T20:20:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/22/perspective/#comment-7871 |
| Thanks - I think. :-) I'm just trying to bust people's perspectives a bit, and on a holiday like this it seemed like a good time to introduce a concept I picked up listening to a lot of Bach. I honestly think that some of his sacred (religious) works are meant to evoke what the Mind of God must hear / see / perceive. |
2011-04-22T22:00:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/22/perspective/#comment-7857 |
| Thanks everyone, Jo, good to see you again (if you're the Jo I'm thinking of!). Been pretty busy, will check out the recs today. Dan, I'm not surprised that the farce that is ethanol is killing things. We had a plant here in the West End and the stuff that came out of it was very toxic. A lot of sulfamines that act as antibiotics are made in the process and they are bad news. This nonsense just has to end. I should write about it, but I've been slow. I also want to thank all of you for being so open to how I use the words "progressive" and "conservative". The language of our "debate" is really getting to me and I do want to find out what went wrong there at the very heart of it all. Thanks! |
2011-04-21T17:07:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/20/o-brother-where-art-thou/#comment-7853 |
| Jim, if you're asking me to "Show, don't tell" I think you're right on here. Let's get on that. I'll need everyone's help to put something together but we can do it. I am getting at several things at once here so I'm trying to rely on more than words to paint the picture. One of the things I truly believe is that most people are intelligent and arrive at their opinions for what seem like very good reasons, at least to them. The problems arise from perspective, not intelligence. Some perspectives are damned narrow, silly, or even bizarre if people thought about those long enough. I want to get people to take a strong half-step back and think about where their opinions come from. The other is something I do write about a lot, and it's maybe the start of a platform. For the Democrats, I'll always start where I did just after the last election: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/ Maybe I'm too practical about this at times, but this isn't just about me. It's about getting our act together as a nation/culture/people for once and cutting out all the selfish whining. That may take real leadership, as it usually does, but it also takes all of us. |
2011-04-20T17:36:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/20/o-brother-where-art-thou/#comment-7844 |
| Thanks, Anna. I guess this should be filed in the "history does matter" category. But language matters a lot, too, and the lack of good language is a real problem IMHO, especially as people throw labels around all over the place. A platform? I guess I've taken a few stabs at that but it may be time to start working on one if we're going to make a new movement out of all these loose feelings and historical tidbits, eh? |
2011-04-20T15:58:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/20/o-brother-where-art-thou/#comment-7842 |
| Audrey, that would be great as far as I'm concerned! Interesting point about the last Depression (around here we're on #5 ... :-) ) It's true that elegance was in style, at least in movies and how many bands presented themselves, as a break from the drudgery of getting through hard times. We'll see what comes on. |
2011-04-19T02:31:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/18/grunge/#comment-7818 |
| BTW, I have a strange feeling that Comedy Central writers frequent Barataria. It's a long story, but .... I watch things. If y'all are really out there, as I suspect, why not write me a note or just say "Hello!"? | 2011-04-16T14:39:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/15/infotainment/#comment-7801 |
| Jack, you're clearly right. Guess that's what you wanted to hear, yes? :-) But I have a feeling that things are about to break in a particularly bad way. The small taste of power that the Angries have right now is causing them to be real jerks about a lot of stuff, forcing crisis after crisis (some of which, I have to say, need to be forced into crises, but that's another story). At some point I do think that a moderate political movement has to spring up where people are looking for sanity - reinforcing their own views, yes, but views that aren't extreme. I'll be waiting. No, I'm not holding my breath. :-) |
2011-04-16T14:36:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/15/infotainment/#comment-7800 |
| Janine, I think they will explode one day. Or at least their heart will (assuming they have one). Craig, I agree on Olbermann and hope he is free to be himself with no pretense at all. It's sort of what I do here, except this is pretty limited. Hey, I'd like a show! (hint!). :-) Yes, it is the audience's fault in the end. I don't know why people like being riled up. I can only imagine that people like Gretchen Carlson probably want us to be as sour and joyless as she comes off, but I don't know why anyone would find that anything other than really, really dull. |
2011-04-15T18:02:30+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/15/infotainment/#comment-7780 |
| It is a strange thing, Dan. When I'd pass a farm that was giving way to development I used to joke, "Shoulda used more suburbacide." Soon, however, we'll see the results of investing so heavily in a monoculture - one crop, one way of doing things, one way to get around. Saint Paul was laid out as a trolley city, which can still be seen on Grand, Randolph, Selby/Marshall, et cetera. Things occur in lines, not at nodes per se. It's been retrofitted for cars pretty heavily over the years, but the original uses remain largely intact. A place designed entirely for cars, however, won't make such an easy conversion. You'll see more malls fill out to eat their parking lots, for example, but distance will always be a problem. Extra wide streets will have plenty of room to retrofit (unlike narrow little streets like Randolph east of Hamline, a mere 66'!) but the final leg to houses will be tricky, I'm sure. But it will happen at some point, I'm quite sure, unless a very cheap source of energy is identified that can be concentrated into a small enough space to power an automobile as efficiently as the cheap petrol that defined these places in the first place. We'll just have to see what happens. |
2011-04-13T23:58:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/13/suburbanization-of-poverty/#comment-7707 |
| Liz, there's nothing to worry about. In fact, I nearly forget as well. Bob, I've made if very clear - I am not Don Quixote, y'all are Don Quixotes. The average person in this nation has had their mind poisoned by the fantastic tales spun by the media. I am a dutiful Sancho Panza, coming along for the adventure, the chance to chronicle the story, and to make sure that the old guy doesn't get into too much trouble. All I ask is for the same reward Sancho Panza got, which is Barataria - literally "cheap lands", a common slang for swamp. |
2011-04-13T20:30:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/11/four-years-on/#comment-7705 |
| Dale, I think you're right on. Bob, if you're trying to force coded language on me I won't bite. But imagine chopped-up "McMansions" with several units full of people who get by on the margin, some of them on public assistance, and you have not just the future of many suburbs - you have the today of some suburbs in places like Los Angeles. Read the Brookings report - it's very interesting. Anna, common sense always wins out in the long run, much like market forces do. Of course, in the long run, we're all dead. :-) |
2011-04-13T20:27:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/13/suburbanization-of-poverty/#comment-7704 |
| Thanks again, everyone. We've entered the Spring "Offline" season so hit are going to track down a bit from here. I may have to do something a bit more dramatic to keep 'em coming. :-) | 2011-04-12T20:28:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/11/four-years-on/#comment-7681 |
| Thank you, everyone! Jim, perhaps I should make something like the writing guide as a guide to antique music. That's not a bad idea. As for the rest of it, I think that it might be time to put together some of the connections and historical analysis together in a book. I'd need connections of my own to make that happen, but writing a book on a topic is essential to being invited to larger media outlets. I'm thinking about it and how to get started. In the meantime, if anyone can help network I'd appreciate it. Thanks again, everyone. Have a drink or two and stay for more fun! :-) |
2011-04-11T17:27:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/11/four-years-on/#comment-7664 |
| Thanks, Russell! See, I'm not completely nuts. :-) (not really all that original, either, but hey) |
2011-04-10T03:43:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/08/armageddon-been-there-done-that/#comment-7587 |
| Dale, I think that this story is never told because at the center of it is not only questioning the Christian Bible but understanding then questioning the very strangest and scariest part of it. I think that few people who would take the time to really get into Revelation would be the kind of people who would want to fit it into history. But everything that is written is a reflection of its culture and time as far as I'm concerned. To me, this was just a really good puzzle. Outside of Revelation the rest of it is quite well know. Big hunks were fictionalized nicely by Robert Graves in I, Claudius and Claudius the God so it even made its way, in part, into popular culture for a time. Granted, we live in especially dim times so great works like this hardly register anymore. But that's just an opening for wackos like me. :-) | 2011-04-08T18:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/08/armageddon-been-there-done-that/#comment-7581 |
| Jan & Jim - yes, I am trying to make a point. This piece is about a time when Rome should have fallen - but didn't. The reasons were many, but two stand out - no one was there to take its place, and the time bought by that enabled new blood to come in and restore what made Rome great in the first place. It was both a revolution and a very conservative action at the same time. It saved the Empire. I've been thinking about this for a long, long time. I do think it's a great story for many reasons, not the least of which is the incredible turning point in world history that this represents. History is full of people acting more or less as any of us do. People are people - but cultures are cultures. The same emotions and needs unwind in different ways but for largely the same reasons. This does relate to the recent piece on how the Confederacy honestly though Civil War was in their best interest. What's my point? A step back from the insane (and largely irrelevant) "politics" that dominates our day gives us all a fresh perspective. We can make it through these times, even though many think we're at some kind of endtime one way or another. They are simply wrong - history does not produce endtimes, it produces a series of inflections that play out according to the strength of the people who get through them. |
2011-04-08T16:57:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/08/armageddon-been-there-done-that/#comment-7578 |
| Ron, I'll file that under "How do they figure this stuff anyways?" The official inflation rate has always been questionable, especially when you think about things like health care that greatly exceed it. And I'm not really sure where we are on housing these days - I know it did rise in price faster than inflation, but I have no idea how much has been given back in the last few years (or will be in the next few) - but it's not good, I'm sure. One thing you didn't think of - the big increase in household income that came in the 80s had a lot to do with women entering the workforce: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/state-of-jobs/ (although in the 1970s, when that phenom started, households barely kept even). So a similar amount of pay for more people working? Not good. |
2011-04-07T19:40:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/06/better-off/#comment-7555 |
| Thanks, everyone. Jim, you raise an interesting point - a truly stable society will not have a rising real income. However, we do have those productivity gains, so we can expect rising income just from that. There's a difference between "average" or "mean" and the "median" presented here, but that's another story altogether. Dan, I'll check out MinnPost. I do hope that retirement for 60 year olds or so catches on - I do think that I was the first to present that idea. |
2011-04-07T00:45:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/06/better-off/#comment-7547 |
| Alan, I do not know what happened - must be technical. It wasn't caught in my spam filter, which sometimes happens. Sorry about that - please try again, I do appreciate what you've added to Barataria! I do not have a comment policy posted, but I leave up absolutely everything that is not caught by the spam filter as long as I have no proof that someone is posting anonymously. The only comments I have ever deleted were either clear spam that got through (honestly, I am not interested in buying a shed!) or comments left by someone whose e-mail address could not be verified (and I rarely check). | 2011-04-06T16:34:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/#comment-7542 |
| Dan, it's all a matter of selfishness. Once people honestly believe that everyone else is bringing you down, I think it's hard to stop until one day you're launching cannonballs at Fort Sumter. Or something like that. But yes, I agree with you. |
2011-04-06T02:56:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/04/civil-war-150-years-on/#comment-7519 |
| Dale: It's not exactly the same, but I hope everyone can feel the roots of today's arguments in what was put forward 150 years ago. The South honestly thought they'd be better off on their own because they were putting so much money into the Federal government. They were very wrong, of course. The way forward was Union and it is what made a great nation - not a desperate attempt to hold onto what people thought was their own. | 2011-04-04T17:57:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/04/civil-war-150-years-on/#comment-7506 |
| History doesn't repeat, but it has a mad rhyme like a free-form rapper. That is proof enough that we are, in fact, one people with a shared culture and heritage. We'd do much better if we remembered that first. Thanks, Anna. One note - the President used to be inaugurated on March 4th - it was changed in the 1930s. Didn't want to get into it in a piece that was long to start with. |
2011-04-04T14:56:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/04/civil-war-150-years-on/#comment-7503 |
| jason, excellent point. However, we've been doing things badly since ... well, we haven't actually declared War since WWII. This much power in the hands of one person is a dangerous thing, no matter who has it. I do think we're doing the right thing this time ... but the next? | 2011-04-03T18:51:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/28/obama-doctrine/#comment-7494 |
| Oh, Bugs himself sang that corny ol' song, not Michigan J. Frog. I'm pretty sure I remember it in Bugs' voice. | 2011-04-01T17:38:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/01/april-fools-day/#comment-7491 |
| I updated this to include a pic of Tony per request by twitter. Yes, this has been a long crappy Winter. It's not over yet, I'm sure, but we can feel it. That's a lot for me. And Tony. |
2011-04-01T17:38:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/04/01/april-fools-day/#comment-7490 |
| Interesting where you all have steered this. I was thinking more about fault tolerant public policies in terms of running government, but this has gone towards policies that promote a fault tolerant economy / society. This, to me, is what real politics is all about! Steering it to entrepreneurship is interesting - not exactly the same as fault tolerance, but they do seem to be related. An economy that encourages innovation will be more dynamic and likely much closer to some kind of equilibrium than a centrally planned one (speaking as an American, I am!). What hasn't sunk in is how the old industrial model that so many things still operate under, with big companies and so on, is not all that much different from a centrally planned economy. There is a LOT here, and you are all on the right track. There is a role for government in creating the playing field that makes a stronger economy and society. It's the difference between Capitalism and Marketism that I've written about long ago. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/13/marketism/ We have to have a debate like this publicly and stop the crap that people usually drone on about. The nonsense I usually hear is just killing us. Why aren't there more people like you all in legacy media, etc? |
2011-03-31T16:47:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/#comment-7480 |
| I think that a strong social safety net and personal responsibility are not necessarily in opposition to each other - and the extent that they are is probably a kind of failure (or one waiting to happen). These can work very well in some nations for various reasons that are worth getting to know, IMHO. | 2011-03-30T21:36:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/#comment-7476 |
| Dale, that's a very good point. The more I think about this the more I realize that social and engineered systems are remarkably similar when it comes to fault tolerance - which isn't obvious at first, IMHO. Another thing I didn't write about is how technical indicators are useful in stock markets to detect when there is a "breakout" or unusual situation. That alerts the market to respond, and is a kind of fault tolerance for everyday small changes which prevents stress from building up over the long haul. It makes for a more liquid market and smoother trading overall. That principle probably can be applied pretty easily to things like public policy, at least when there is a budget involved. I'm thinking about that one. |
2011-03-30T19:19:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/30/fault-tolerance/#comment-7474 |
| Alan, I've decided you're right about this. As hard (and slow) as it is to follow procedures we have to have a proper check and balance in place to avoid abuses in the future. Obama himself noted that in 2003 when he opposed the Iraq War - a time when Congress actually did authorize everything, at least. Why didn't he even try to go through proper channels, especially when it's clear that he knew it was the right thing to do? I wish I knew. Once again, Obama has acted in a way that establishes a standard of maximum flexibility - so we can see what he values here. Some of that is prudent, but taking Congress out of the loop is indeed dangerous. Maybe we do have an "Obama Doctrine" after all - the anti-Doctrine. "Whatever works, just do it." That is indeed tough on democracy. |
2011-03-30T16:40:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/28/obama-doctrine/#comment-7472 |
| Alan: So is he a wise man who keeps his options open or an empty opportunist with no internal compass? I guess I accept that you could be right, but if you are it would make sense for him to outline some kind of "Obama Doctrine" tonight just to deflect criticism. I hope it doesn't come to something that fake, however. Anna: I just don't know how anyone can say when it will make sense to intervene until events unfold. I'm pretty sure we can see unrest coming so it might be good to make some kind of plans - but I don't think we can possibly be rigid about it. Should we intervene in, say, Syria just because they are doing the same horrible things that happened in Libya? Offhand I do think we should - but only if the Arab League has our back and we don't look like we're colonizing the place. As bad as many of these dictators are it can get worse if we aren't careful. | 2011-03-28T17:07:04+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/28/obama-doctrine/#comment-7445 |
| Dale, I think "Moslem Brotherhood" is one of those things that was talked about too much with respect to Egypt but not nearly enough when it comes to Libya. Funny how everything changed once it was Ghaddafi that was on the line. I think the general idea is that it can't be any worse than a loon dictator running a kleptocracy, but ... it could be ... | 2011-03-28T15:32:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/28/obama-doctrine/#comment-7442 |
| Talking this over with my daughter (it's Spring Break!) we came up with two other really good ideas. My choice is Hans-Dietrich Genscher, the unsung hero of German Reunification: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Dietrich_Genscher (though he is far from unsung in Germany!). Kate picked an interesting figure that she would like to know more about: Joseph Stalin. Both of these choices are good for a movie in that they tie into historical events of great importance that are known in the main but not in a ton of detail. It's sort of like the burning of Atlanta anchoring "Gone with the Wind" - most historical fiction has an hook like that. |
2011-03-25T19:37:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/25/biography/#comment-7421 |
| Dale, that is an excellent choice! I think that just 20 years ago everyone assumed they knew everything about Ford, but at this point we could start very fresh and re-introduce him to a new generation. He was impressed by Nazis early on, yes, but that's not surprising since Ford was a believer in industrial organization to do all kinds of great works - early on the Nazis appeared to be more about that than conquest (at least to people who were eager to look the other way at the persecution of Jews and others). But Ford was an amazing person. A big sponsor of Chemurgy and George Washington Carver's work (you'll have to look it up, I'm afraid!) I have never read a bio of him, either, so that might be a place to start. i'll bet there are a few. This might be a project I can take on. Thanks! |
2011-03-25T18:57:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/25/biography/#comment-7420 |
| Anna: Yes, historical drama - about a situation as much as a person. Mary Shelley is a great example of someone that has been neglected, yes! Dan: Wow, I'm glad to hear that! If you have any more details please let me know - but I'll start looking into it now. The only problem with him is that so much of his life is legend now that it's hard to know where to begin! |
2011-03-25T16:21:58+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/25/biography/#comment-7418 |
| Dan: Yes, you basically have to assume that everything might fail one day. That can be a lot to ask from people who are "into" setting up elegant systems of some kind or another. It's really easy to say, "Yes, but the odds of the electricity from the outside going down AND the diesel backup going down at the same time are really miniscule". And they are. But a very tiny chance of a really huge disaster is one of those real problem areas. Economically speaking, a one in a billion chance of a billion dollar disaster is worth, what, about one buck, right? But what if you're off a bit and it's more like a one in a million chance of a 100 billion dollar disaaster? Oopsie. Haven't seen Electric Dreams, I'll have to watch for it. Haven't seen a lot of PBS lately for some reason, now that I think of it. |
2011-03-23T21:49:13+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/23/boundary-failure/#comment-7411 |
| Anna, I think that's brilliant! It's not exactly the same thing, but they are related in many ways. A government or any other system that encourages "appliance users" either by design or just because it's damned good at what it does usually winds up encouraging everyone to test the boundaries. In the financial world I think everyone's hunt for an "edge" over everyone else will always propel this - so the success in (apparently) eliminating risk only made risky behavior more palatable - and the crash that came when the boundaries of that system's ability to keep doing its thang were crossed became inevitable. | 2011-03-23T17:42:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/23/boundary-failure/#comment-7408 |
| Dale, that's surely a lot of it! I was thinking about breaking down these kinds of failures into different classes, but I'm not going to pretend I have a comprehensive list. Failure of assumptions is probably one class, buildup of stress might be another, and random/near-random change in boundaries might be another. There may be more. What I'm much more concerned about here is how we have more "appliance users" of tech the more they develop a confidence in their various systems that is not all that well deserved. It's what James Burke talked about in Connections as the dark side of the "trigger effect" where technology spawns new tech and increases specialization constantly. |
2011-03-23T16:34:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/23/boundary-failure/#comment-7406 |
| Today there is rain, and December is starting to melt all around us. The Mississippi is starting to rise as it all runs into the city's elaborate system of grates and pipes. We know what the news will be in a few weeks. | 2011-03-22T13:27:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/21/spring/#comment-7388 |
| Thanks everyone. Dale, I'll use that a bit more & see where it goes. | 2011-03-21T18:04:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/21/spring/#comment-7380 |
| Yup. As difficult as change can feel at the moment, knowing it's going right can go a long way. Best to stay focused on that. Happy Srping, everyone! | 2011-03-21T15:38:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/21/spring/#comment-7376 |
| Thanks, everyone! I don't like to do these only because they take a lot more time than a usual post. And a lot of inspiration, frankly. This one was about 2 hours in the making, which is normally a lot more than I can do - but the day after St Patrick's Day the city of St Paul is still pretty shut down and I knew I wasn't going to get ahold of anyone before lunch so I went for it. I would like to do these all the time - and spend more than 2 lousy hours on them because rhyme and meter deserves more attention than mere prose. It would be a great living if some news mag was looking for something a bit out of the ordinary (hint!). | 2011-03-19T00:32:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/18/smaller-planet/#comment-7352 |
| Thanks! Unfortunately, a last minute edit didn't go through properly so people reading this on RSS will have a version where the meter is off in the first stanza. Grrr! A little license is good, but too much ... is just wrong! | 2011-03-18T15:53:03+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/18/smaller-planet/#comment-7347 |
| Mo, I've never been one for green beer - seems like a gimmick at best! But yes, there are those of us who are way, way too "into it" who know just who was a Prod and who was a Cat (you knew there had to be slang terms, dinnitya?). Bushmill's is Prod - but so is the Guinness family and no one ever questioned their commitment to Ireland. So it's probably best to not make too much of this. In my own family, however, it makes for a good joke over something that it's far better to joke about than take too seriously. :-) |
2011-03-17T20:00:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/16/irish-pride/#comment-7332 |
| Thanks, Jack. I'd rather we did what they do in Ireland - which is go to church mainly. But, alas, the bit party caught on over there, too. The Irish Diaspora has always had a relationship to the homeland, for better or worse. | 2011-03-16T23:22:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/16/irish-pride/#comment-7330 |
| Jim, it may be for many people. Not all of us, though. | 2011-03-16T16:04:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/16/irish-pride/#comment-7327 |
| As the crisis deepens the regular news folks are doing a better job of providing background, so my original reason for doing this piece are a bit lost. Oh well. I didn't think it would get this bad, to be honest, and I'm still hoping for the best. But yes, this may be the end of nuclear power. | 2011-03-15T16:03:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/14/nuclear-power/#comment-7312 |
| Dale, I'm not entirely sure what they are doing, which is why I left it out. However, the key is getting things as cool as they can, so my first guess is that they are pumping water from the sea directly through the heat exchanger that would normally route steam to the turbines to make power. That would remove heat from the containment vessel much quicker than normal operation. But I'm not entirely sure - this is not normal operation, after all, and I'm not trained in emergency operations of one of these by any stretch. As of right now it seems that reactor #2 is in even more serious trouble, so I think that we're looking at a very bad situation in the making. The people working in that control room are tired, hot, and getting a lifetime's dose of radiation. They are sacrificing at least their careers to get this working, and maybe their lives. We should all pray for these heroes and hope they can do it. |
2011-03-14T23:34:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/14/nuclear-power/#comment-7297 |
| Thanks Jim, Anna. I don't break news, I fix it. :-) This is an example of what I like to do best, which is fill in the gaps created by the (sometimes necessarily) breathless reporting of "breaking" news. If I can help explain difficult subjects in plain English I figure I'm doing a service. My opinion of nuclear power is not all that important, so I'm glad you couldn't find it in this li'l piece. I worked at Turkey Point Nuclear Plant (Florida Power & Light) one summer in the 1980s. As it stands now, I think that on balance I can't support the continued operation of these plants without a permanent solution to the waste. If we're not willing to deal with it as a people (a reasonable choice) then I think we shouldn't be generating it. As always, I try to be as reasonable as I can. It's rarely popular. :-) |
2011-03-14T16:11:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/14/nuclear-power/#comment-7283 |
| Exactly, Dan. We know what has to be coming and have an idea how to prepare, but we won't know how we're going to get through it until it happens. But I sure want to prepare a lot more. And build more rail systems. | 2011-03-12T14:32:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/11/like-an-earthquake/#comment-7270 |
| Jim, I agree with you - if I had waited a day before writing this I might have contrasted the response to a natural disaster vs political unrest. It is amazing how the messes that humans create on their own are so much harder for us to just get together and clean up. | 2011-03-11T20:55:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/11/like-an-earthquake/#comment-7262 |
| I think people might be on edge for a lot of reasons right now. It has to wear on us all. A brief footnote: I was thinking about an in-depth analysis of this oil crisis, which is a very strange non-shortage situation set up mostly by the futures market getting out of control. I also wanted to hit on the strange situation in China, which is clearly more delicate than we think. Then, the earthquake hit and just about everything is out the window - not that it was clear what was going on before. I agree, this has to put people on edge. |
2011-03-11T17:33:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/11/like-an-earthquake/#comment-7253 |
| Youse guys ... :-) | 2011-03-10T17:59:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/09/gotcha/#comment-7238 |
| Jack, that's cynical even by my standards :-) | 2011-03-09T19:57:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/09/gotcha/#comment-7221 |
| Jim, I think you're right that what sells will always win out. Here's hoping this get s a bit boring in time. Anna, I think we agree completely. I'd like to think that if someone caught me by surprise I'd react appropriately, but you never know until it happens. |
2011-03-09T19:50:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/09/gotcha/#comment-7219 |
| Thanks everyone. Jim, Jack, I'll think about that. I have no idea how I got into it, but I was pretty young. Just happened somehow. :-) |
2011-03-08T23:17:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/07/crackle-and-spark/#comment-7210 |
| Anna, see what Gini had to say (thanks!). Facebook does not have my city of birth or the names of my parents (esp mother's maiden name!). They don't have anything more than a phone book would have. Granted, they are gathering info on what I might click on while there, revealing my interests, but that may not be a huge problem. Then again, the yahoo! email account I've been loyal to for 20 years was just over-run with spam and had to be abandoned - and that's the one facebook knows about, so there is a chance that they are related. I'll call it coincidence for now, but I think just being super careful with especially sensitive things is good enough. I do worry that they are feeding spammers with email addys and I'll let you know if I find out that's the case. Dale, it's not all a scam - a well written article should have the keywords present and I don't think that's a big deal. But it can easily be over-stated and often is. That's why google is changing their system to stay ahead - sort of like constantly updating the rulebook for a sport to stay ahead of people who push things as hard as they can. In search engines and in sports there is never any real substitute for solid fundamentals, tho! |
2011-03-04T20:39:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/04/beware-big-net/#comment-7172 |
| Jim, it's not anything worth worrying about too much as a user. I wanted to write a fairly mainstream piece about it because, strangely, big media has yet to really take this one on. When they do, they often get bogged down on the word "algorithm" and feel they have to explain it - I just punted that out and said "system". People make this way more complicated than it should be - in the media, as users, and as site promoters. I say it far too often for my taste but apparently it has to be said again - "Write for people, edit for SEO". I can add, "and be done with it!" |
2011-03-04T16:44:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/04/beware-big-net/#comment-7168 |
| Simple things like central heat and indoor plumbing make all the difference. Stuff like an iPad doesn't even come close! :-) | 2011-03-03T19:20:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/02/climate/#comment-7159 |
| Thanks. It's been a tough few weeks with the up and down, but it's what we have to expect. | 2011-03-02T20:15:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/03/02/climate/#comment-7155 |
| Thanks, Gini! I think we can laugh at them, but we should never repeat their strange "talking points" verbatim - unless it's a punchline. | 2011-03-01T19:56:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/25/the-war-on-reality/#comment-7148 |
| Mary, thanks! tell all your friends. :-) Bob, I know Buchanan well and I find it fascinating how we agree on a few points, this especially. I think if we did turn inward and take care of ourselves better we'd fight like all heck, but for now we have something to talk about! |
2011-03-01T19:56:00+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/28/post-imperial/#comment-7147 |
| Jack, that is an easier way to put it. I guess I got a bit carried away thinking about the kind of change we're in and why people are so upset about it - an era is ending and it does seem like the end of the world to some people (thought it really isn't). Anna, I don't know why we dropped the ball so badly on this. The War on Terror(tm) is one thing, but we've gotten even crazier than that. If we spend twice as much as our nearest competitor, China, we'd still have an extra $460B to play with each year. Talk about tax cuts, balanced budget ... etc. Oh, and we'd owe a lot less to ... China .... talk about security! Dale, I think this is a time for tough ways of putting things. People need to be jostled out of the narrow old ways of thinking. Thinking of us as an Empire allows a lot of really useful comparisons, so as tough as that word is I do think it works well. |
2011-02-28T19:19:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/28/post-imperial/#comment-7133 |
| Lee, I disagree - jobs are jobs. By your reasoning we can't really count private sector jobs in fields like medical care. Now, whether or not they are desirable is another thing, and you might argue that a big dose of unemployment is preferable if it leads to a serious restructuring. I've certainly called for a major restructuring simply because I think it's inevitable - so the sooner we get on with it, the better. | 2011-02-27T03:30:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/23/state-of-jobs/#comment-7116 |
| Anna, sensationalism is part of it. I can't decide if the rest is either a lack of imagination or too much of it. Possibly both at the same time. Dan, I think that people do like having a bit of a challenge and not being catered to constantly, too. We don't need to have crap around everywhere, IMHO. |
2011-02-27T03:28:27+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/25/the-war-on-reality/#comment-7115 |
| I appreciate a comment from "the other side" because, well, I don't think there is another side (at least not that way!) Thanks! I do think there are ways we can move our economy towards better energy balance and I think that methane (natural gas) is probably the key in the short term. I wrote about it a while ago: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/09/03/methane/ | 2011-02-25T17:01:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/21/snow-daze/#comment-7103 |
| Thanks, Dale. I always say that Bachmann is a fairy - if everyone just ignored her, she'd become invisible. Unfortunately it's a bit too late for that as she's become the major flak-catcher for "their side". Sad, that. I'd still rather mostly ignore her, but if we can get a few laughs off of her apparently narcissistic tendency to believe that anything she says has to be true, maybe it'll be worth it. But we just can't take her seriously at all, not a chance. She doesn't do constituent service, sponsor bills, or anything other than open new battlefronts in the War on Reality. Very silly stuff. | 2011-02-25T16:35:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/25/the-war-on-reality/#comment-7101 |
| Dan, I'm still not sure about man-made global warming versus natural. I think that while there has been a lot of work attempting to prove the hypothesis (warming is man-made) there has been very little disproving the antithesis (warming is natural). That's what I was getting at here, but I'll save it for the comments section. I'm just not all that sure and I don't see why anyone would be. However, burning up our petroleum causes so many other problems (environmental, economic, political, etc) that it's worth looking for alternatives anyways, so I don't say a lot. | 2011-02-25T02:28:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/21/snow-daze/#comment-7080 |
| Anna, contributions were pretty slim. I think I'll just leave it where it's at for now and not talk about it too much. But I'm happy with the survey results, at least. | 2011-02-24T20:24:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/16/pledge-drive/#comment-7078 |
| I think I'll revisit some of this tomorrow. I'm pretty sick of the War on Reality that is going on out there. If Walker really needs concessions like this, he should explain why. That's all I'm asking at this point. |
2011-02-24T20:23:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/18/consensus/#comment-7077 |
| Anna, I really don't know. I think we are looking the first potential flood that isolates the new Upper Landing, however. It's really bad - unless we get lucky in March. | 2011-02-24T20:21:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/21/snow-daze/#comment-7076 |
| Jim, I don't think it will add up to a million jobs at the state and local level - but it could. I know that number has been tossed around, and it works out to 20k per state. It's possible, but I think that's high - and it won't be until the end of the year for some of them. Dale, I hope that's what the bottom looks like! But it's sure not the "V" shape you get from a typical recession. The loss during the supposed "recovery" in 2002-3 shows that in this kind of economy I don't think anything is really "typical" - events like this are a bit rare through history. That's prolly what has Bernanke so cautious. |
2011-02-24T20:20:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/23/state-of-jobs/#comment-7075 |
| Yes, Anna, you caught me. There is a lot more to this than simply counting jobs. The big gain in participation from 1970-1990 has a lot to do with women entering the workforce in large numbers, but that's probably not the whole story. More to the point, the increases in productivity per worker have to factor into this somehow. On top of it, we see growing income disparity in the same period. It's a lot to absorb and I don't want to make one feature on a graph into way too much without thinking it through a bit. But this is one helluva feature, ain't it? I'm not through contemplating the 1970s, if that's what you're getting at. :-) |
2011-02-23T17:13:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/23/state-of-jobs/#comment-7066 |
| We always have something to complain about out here where the prairie meets the hardwood forests. We have nothing to complain about when it comes to our own ability to deal with it. Yes, people seem to forget how to drive, and yes, the plows are never as fast as we'd like. But we have to deal with it. This is the climate that tries our souls. Eventually, it says a lot about who you are in a dazzling show, don't tell, kind of way. I like that. | 2011-02-22T01:25:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/21/snow-daze/#comment-7048 |
| I don't know who can predict the next 10 years all well, but we can be sure that it will be slower than we've seen in the past. I'm a big fan of bounded chaos as methodology, and we can be sure that the bounds will be lower than we expect. We'll see. In the meantime, the survey sez I should be writing less politics. :-) |
2011-02-21T00:21:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/18/consensus/#comment-7032 |
| Dan, it's about the same here - in percent and the effort put into it. We do have to start thinking about K-12 and what it costs. That's why I did my piece on becoming a teacher along with Eric Austin - I think we need to talk about this issue at great length, from the bottom up. I'm also a big supporter of Charter Schools. I doubt any one thing will solve the situation, but I really do want to talk about it. Yes, the Democrats haven't done their job to prevent this mess, either. Ron, you raise some points I glossed over when reading about this, too. I saw those mentioned in the Milwaukee Journal (a great paper!) and just kept reading. They have to plug the budget gap, that's a given. The rest should be put up for a lot more engagement. There's a fine line between quick action (which is needed in so many areas!) and the need for consensus. As I said earlier, putting things off without discussion is making emergencies that are forcing things to go down very badly: No Decision, Big Decision Dan and Ron, I hope you can see this post as the book-end of that last one. Our hands are being forced and bad decisions are being made quickly. I think you are both right on here. | 2011-02-18T19:07:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/18/consensus/#comment-7017 |
| Thank again, everyone. Over 100 votes in the survey and you've made it pretty clear - more history and social commentary, along with economics - no more social media and writing. I'll throw in a little urban life because I like those stories, but only when I have a good point. :-) I didn't raise much money so far, but I wasn't sure what I'd get. MPR says that their conversion is around 7%, so I would expect Barataria to be even lower. I could still use a little help here, so I appreciate whatever you think I'm worth. Thanks again! You are all the reason I write at all! |
2011-02-18T18:32:54+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/16/pledge-drive/#comment-7015 |
| I think it's vital for us to understand that Unity is critical to our system as we know it. The rhetoric being employed by the Blogging Brigade is usually all about being "right", not about moving forward. The result is that we haven't been able to move anything forward in a long time. So our crisis deepens. We've been there before. My argument is a very conservative one on purpose. I don't see how anyone can call themselves a "conservative" and not take the long view. But, once again, our tradition is one of Progress - meaning that no matter how far we look back we see the great figures of our history looking us squarely in the eyes. What are we going to do, today? Our system is designed to fail toward inaction when the commitment to Consensus breaks down. The result has always spilled into the streets. There is no surprise here, none at all. This has to happen. Let's do it up right and make it work. |
2011-02-18T16:55:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/18/consensus/#comment-7007 |
| Ron, I think you hit the nail on the head as to where the real reform has to come. I'm going to think about this some more. There has been a lot of work in shortening supply chains for obvious reasons, and that does look like a pullback from globalism - but it's part of finding a balance. I've talked a lot about overhead per employee, focusing on things we can quantify like bennies, taxes, etc. But every HR department is part of that overhead - and, really, so is every supervisor and manager. Direct Labor can only be cut so far before you affect quality - but what can be done about Indirect Labor? It has to be the next focus, I agree. Excellent point. |
2011-02-18T01:42:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/09/global-retreat/#comment-6985 |
| Thank you everyone. I may post another story from my childhood later. There are many. | 2011-02-18T01:38:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/11/lift-every-voice-and-sing/#comment-6984 |
| Thanks everyone! I know the two people who called me a "blowhard", so I won't take it personally ... well, not too much. :-) Still surprised that the social/history is coming out on top. Also amused that social media is a stinker, especially since that's what gets re-tweeted the most. Clearly, my readers are not people who are the "norm" on social media sites. Hardly surprising, but it makes the success of Barataria all the more interesting. Thank you all again .... not sure what I'll post tomorrow, but I think I want to more or less move on and see what I come up with. |
2011-02-18T01:37:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/16/pledge-drive/#comment-6983 |
| Ron, I'm all in favor of innovation. A lot of people say that we shouldn't experiment on kids, but we do every day by insisting that they all do the same thing! I would hope it's obvious by now that everyone learns in a different way and that "Multiple Intelligences" is a big "Duh". So you can imagine I had a lot of problems when I first heard that St Paul wants to "standardize curriculum". I've been talking with people about what that means and so far I'm happy that it means that they won't let schools leave out whole subject areas and will recommend a standard practice but not enforce it. I think we have to hold them to it, which is to say that there will never be a substitute for active engagement. But, for now, I support what they are talking about. |
2011-02-16T23:13:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/14/saint-pauls-community-school-plan/#comment-6970 |
| Off to a slow start, but we'll see how it goes during the day. I'm not sure I could write about economics alone - it seems to me that the idea of a Free Market(tm) is so central to our culture that it winds up being a part of everything! | 2011-02-16T16:41:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/16/pledge-drive/#comment-6965 |
| Anna, a lot of my readers are non-Saintly-City. :-) I also think this hasn't been discussed nearly as much as it should be, so this may be the first time many people have seen it. | 2011-02-15T21:33:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/14/saint-pauls-community-school-plan/#comment-6946 |
| Jim, the plan itself is vast and confusing. The net result at the end is a simpler system that will be much easier to understand. That part of this plan is really good, IMHO. | 2011-02-14T17:31:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/14/saint-pauls-community-school-plan/#comment-6933 |
| Thanks. I don't think anyone who ever thought about it "got" segregation, whether they were North or South. There's a link to a story I did on Old McMullen, the guy who taught me about the history of Perrine and how things got to be The Way They Are. He never understood it all, either. I treasure that oldtime Florida honesty and try to do my best to tell these stories straight up. But I still love this song. It says far more to me than anything else. |
2011-02-11T17:37:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/11/lift-every-voice-and-sing/#comment-6876 |
| I think some people just like to teach - it invigorates them. That's part of my thinking at this point, since I'm alone a bit too much as a writer. | 2011-02-11T04:33:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6865 |
| Yes, Dan, many companies are trying to shorten the supply chains for the reasons I stated. That's part of what I think will continue to happen in Brasil - where they make a LOT of aluminum thanks to their development of electricity. You see where I'm going with this? This is what Pres. Obama means when he talks about developing basic energy industries and so on. There is a point where national policy makes a difference - and that's a lot of what Pres. Lula of Brasil. Part of what inspired this post was his statement in Senegal that "Capitalism is dead", BTW. There's a circle here. :-) |
2011-02-10T01:20:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/09/global-retreat/#comment-6850 |
| Jim - Our standard of living will drop if we give up the strong dollar - and that pretty much has to happen. So yes, there will be a problem. However, I think we can easily tighten our belts and make do with a lot less junk without really noticing a decline in the parts of our standard of living that matter most. There will probably be some whining, yes, but it may not be a huge problem. We'll see, I'm sure. Anna - I think I will look into co-ops more. The changes that are sweeping over everyone do seem to demand a lot more control at all levels, and that's one way people can band together outside of government / corporations and other big institutions that have their own agendas. |
2011-02-09T17:18:10+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/09/global-retreat/#comment-6840 |
| I wasn't so sure about the Miss Evelyn one, it had a "Walter Mitty" feel to me (does that make me old?) The Darth one was very cute, but it was kind of a typical commercial and I didn't feel like commenting on it. But really, what would any of us do to make a car commercial that was really fresh and caught people's attention? It seem really hard to me! | 2011-02-09T03:24:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/07/superbowl-ads/#comment-6814 |
| Janine, Jack, those were both interesting - and since I like "House" I really liked that one! I think groupon is in one of those places where it can't possibly do anything right. They shoulda took the $6B and run. [ note - I will turn over Barataria for far, far less than $6B ... just in case you're interested ... ] |
2011-02-07T19:03:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/07/superbowl-ads/#comment-6792 |
| Tomorrow is the actual game. They hype will end. Can't wait! | 2011-02-06T05:24:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/28/the-pop-bowl/#comment-6737 |
| Thank you very much, Becky! | 2011-02-06T05:22:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6736 |
| Jack, that is so awesome of you! :-) | 2011-02-04T19:32:47+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/02/superlatives/#comment-6689 |
| Ron: I agree with you completely here. If you want to include some defined coursework as part of the certification I could see that - but I like the flexibility of doing that part online. THEN passing a test and THEN starting some kind of paid internship / mentoring / tutoring with a solid evaluation process would make sense to me. I'm really thinking through the skills that Eric raised in his post. Is a test enough to demonstrate proficiency? I've railed against the "No Child Left Behind" kind of testing for kids, so I don't think I can support it in isolation for teachers. But required classtime seems a bit silly since we do all learn in different ways at different paces. On Eric's blog one commentor (was it you, Ron?) noted that doing required coursework concurrent with the internship / apprenticeship made it much more effective. That's a real world experience that's worth noting, IMHO. |
2011-02-04T19:31:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6688 |
| Eric, I don't think we really disagree that much here (do we ever, really? :-) ) so as an experiment in sparking a lot of debate this may not be a great one. Or, perhaps, it might be optimal since we are clearly reaching some concensus ... we'll see. But I really appreciate what you had to say and think it helps us move something constructive forward to have all the potential downside listed out thoroughly. I especially like how you listed "this is what needs to be done" and, ideally, we can git 'er done. That's what good legislation and policy is all about! All the readers here should see what Eric has to say (link above). |
2011-02-04T18:26:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6687 |
| Jack, I just don't want to go there right now. :-) I have to say as a footnote that I was surprised how the bill SF40 didn't seem that awful to me when I read it. It may be a bit too loose, and now that I've read Eric Austin's post I can see his point very clearly. But I do think there's a way to do this and open up new opportunities for everyone. |
2011-02-04T17:00:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/04/teachers-with-experience/#comment-6682 |
| davincidad: I think you are right, but that attitude has permeated the bureaucracy as well - and they have no excuse at all. I don't know what to make of any of it. Jim: It's a theory at this point, but what I see is that when poltiicos want to make something happen they have to make it into a big deal first. That's what bothers me. I think that is very true. |
2011-02-04T02:45:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-6664 |
| I was going to include this in the text, but it was a bit too heavy. So I'll put it in the comments as a footnote - why superlatives are a problem: Your Daily Dose of Tao - Tao Te Ching Chapter 2, translated by Derek Lin http://www.taoism.net/ttc/complete.htm When the world knows beauty as beauty, ugliness arises When it knows good as good, evil arises Thus being and non-being produce each other Difficult and easy bring about each other Long and short reveal each other High and low support each other Music and voice harmonize each other Front and back follow each other Therefore the sages: Manage the work of detached actions Conduct the teaching of no words They work with myriad things but do not control They create but do not possess They act but do not presume They succeed but do not dwell on success. It is because they do not dwell on success That it never goes away |
2011-02-02T22:56:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/02/superlatives/#comment-6650 |
| Arrgh! I've been caught! Well, "plain" is more of a bad habit than a real superlative. But ... yeah, it counts. :-) |
2011-02-02T20:46:39+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/02/superlatives/#comment-6647 |
| Anna: I thought I did, too, but I can't find it. Maybe later when I have more time to look. That is a good example I thought of to include here! Dale: That one is plain silly! I think it counts. Janine: Yes, that also doesn't make any sense. Why not say you were disappointed or upset rather than go for the physical routine? Good examples, thanks! |
2011-02-02T20:18:21+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/02/02/superlatives/#comment-6645 |
| I agree, Charlie. But it's damned hard to make the case for government when things have been let go this long and there are clear signs that it's just not working anymore. Once again, I've been caught complaining without making clear and distinct proposals. Sorry about that. I think that this needs to be said, especially on the "left". We have a real problem making the case that we are, as Anna put it, getting our money's worth. |
2011-02-01T01:45:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-6589 |
| Dale, that's the comment of the day by far. You're right, this is all one big (and sick) phenom - a series of symptoms produced by a very sick society. Thing is that Democrats have to get past this if we are going to make the case that government is useful. The only alternative I can think of is to retreat back to the most obvious essential services and use the most vulnerable as our front lines - which is about what we are doing now. The way to reverse this, IMHO, is dramatic leadership and a strong commitment to empower state employees to make decisions. There's more to it than that, of course, but it has to start there. But you are right that this is more evidence that we've let the "right" win the basic argument. I also think it shows. |
2011-01-31T23:30:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-6584 |
| Jack, none of us like to make decisions. Times are tough, and the snow is piling up. :-) Anna, thanks! There was something else I dd on a similar topic, but I can't find it. I think there's a general theme here. |
2011-01-31T18:36:42+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/31/no-decision-big-decision/#comment-6578 |
| Jim, it's too hard to dig out just what's going on in Minnesota. I can do it, but it will take time I just don't have right now. I'm thinking of another Minnesota angle, however. A very unpleasant one. |
2011-01-31T00:49:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/24/public-investment/#comment-6543 |
| Good to see you, too, Ian - we'll be around! | 2011-01-31T00:48:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/26/tweetup/#comment-6542 |
| I watch it for the game - hate the ads! | 2011-01-31T00:47:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/28/the-pop-bowl/#comment-6541 |
| Thanks, everyone! I do like Division / Conference loyalty. I'm an AFC guy at heart (go 'phins!) so it's only natural I'd be for the Steelers. |
2011-01-28T18:01:41+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/28/the-pop-bowl/#comment-6479 |
| Thank you all, these are fun events just to get to know people! | 2011-01-26T18:52:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/26/tweetup/#comment-6433 |
| Ah, you caught me complaining without offering a proposal! Not good! :-) You are right that health care is a big problem, especially when you are talking about expenditures that involve a lot of people. We're solving some of it, but not nearly fast enough or with the radical change (I think) it deserves. What got my attention is that debt is rising faster than those expenditures, however, which may mean deficit spending - but may not. I'm not entirely sure what the gap is yet, but the trends are just not looking good. I'll look after it some more. This was surprising enough to me that I thought it deserved a post on its own, but I'll get back to it. Janine, you're right that this is more evidence that the crisis has been a long time in the making. I should summarize all of the evidence in one place. |
2011-01-24T17:08:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/24/public-investment/#comment-6392 |
| I do think it's funny how much I fit the Sagitarius (sp?) profile, though I have been joking about Ophiuchus for years. Could there actually be something in these horoscopes? How about this - people born in the Winter might have a bit of an attitude. So, Jack, go ahead and be all Leo about it, there may be something to it. There might be another story hidden in there that's worth telling later on! |
2011-01-22T15:25:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/21/heavenly-conflict/#comment-6357 |
| I think the story is what counts! :-) Retro is a good idea. It doesn't get more retro than going back 2,500 years! Whoo-Hoo! |
2011-01-21T23:10:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/21/heavenly-conflict/#comment-6346 |
| It's accurate, just a bit twisted to include everything. Well, nearly everything, I left out Emperor Vespasian and the book of Revelation. :-) I think the bottom line is that any time someone tell you a clean, sensible "history" they are probably relating a sanitized fiction. If you want a moral to this story, that's probably it. But what do I know, I was born under the sign of a snake handler. :-) |
2011-01-21T16:07:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/21/heavenly-conflict/#comment-6341 |
| Dan, I'm sure that's true. We have been infatuated with keeping banks full of money (that they don't lend out) and tax cuts, neither of which seems to generate jobs all that efficiently. Was just in a discussion on twitter with Jack, and I think that there has to be some way the government can do *some* good, even if it's limited and/or only for dire emergencies (which, as you know, I tend to think this is). I mentioned the "multiplier effect" here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/09/29/what-happened/ That's the old idea that every $1.00 the government spends generates $1.50 in GDP. The reason this isn't worth talking about too much is that it's pretty clear that, based on what we've seen, the multiplier isn't 1.5X but about zero. But ... that may only be true because we though we could spend money on anything and have the same multiplier, but that seems like a pretty lazy assumption to make. I'll stay on it. The two ideas I have so far are buying off the Boomers and reducing employee overhead. I'll bet there are more, possibly even a CCC or WPA type project (though times may have changed on those). Anyone else have any ideas? | 2011-01-19T22:39:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/19/economic-update/#comment-6271 |
| I'll let you know if I see any more panic, you can be sure of that. I can't help but wonder about the latest tax cut / stimulus, but I think it's the last we'll see for a bit. I should do an update on the Quantitative Easing, because it hasn't worked out as planned. I thought it would help at least some, but it may have actually made things worse. |
2011-01-19T18:06:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/19/economic-update/#comment-6269 |
| Dan, I wasn't too sure about him at the time, but it's interesting to look back and see that many of the arguments made by Dukkakis - as well as Bob Kerry, Paul Tsongas, and Paul Simon - were quite accurate over the long haul. It's important to me that many Democrats, including Pelosi and Reid, are to this day much less leaders of the "Party of the People" and much more like managers - a change that also, I think, dates to that time. There's a lot more to this than I've written about so far, but I do think that Reagan's policies - though right for stagflation - led us pretty directly to the Depression we're in now. Perhaps the best lesson is "To everything there is a season". Oh, and my attitude towards Latin America is deeply influenced by what I learned in the 70s and 80s - but I always knew that if they could get their act together they would assume their role on the world stage quickly. Few thought they could get their act together, but I met far too many intelligent and passionate people to be that cynical. |
2011-01-14T20:55:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/14/i-still-like-mike/#comment-6181 |
| Anna, this was what I was getting at lat time, but I didn't realize it until the rest of you helped me get there. It was a great collaboration! The piece I think you are referring to is called "Economic Theory" and it was a more philosophical take on the same thing. The Austrian School, as they like to be known now (not Supply-Siders!) seems to regard their assertion that government is always a drag on the economy as a "Duh", something above reproach - a ridiculous and arrogant assertion on the face of it. We have data, we can see what happened. It's not good at all. | 2011-01-14T16:41:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/14/i-still-like-mike/#comment-6175 |
| You guys are the best! I'm so lucky to have a group like this to chat with. It's clear to me that all of you understood what I was thinking about without my even saying all that well. There are several things going on here, and you'll see one of them on Friday. I have to thank you for helping me to clarify what I was trying to get at. Oh, and yes, it was Craig Hardwick in my homeroom for 9th grade, not oneswellfoop. :-) Anyone who knows me in person has heard a few stories about that Craig! :-) | 2011-01-13T19:34:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/12/the-70s/#comment-6148 |
| Dale, Jack, I'm sure my parents would say they were just getting by, too. I was a little rat and I don't remember a ton, but I do remember a lot of complaining about inflation and so on. Wendell, I agree that there was something in there that we were supposed to learn but didn't. I referred to "The 70s" only because I'm looking for a way to tie together a lot of things that happened at the same time which seem to add up to One Big Thing but on the face of them have nothing in common. Yes, not learning the right lesson from them has given us 30 years of wallowing - and, to be honest, I think may be the real root of the Depression we're in now. |
2011-01-12T20:17:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/12/the-70s/#comment-6126 |
| By way of a prologue ... Thank you all for your comments. I'm re-thinking a bit my original harsh feelings. Most of you know that I have strong feelings about life and death in the middle of the streets and will forgive me for getting a shade emotional about these sorts of things. Everyone I've ever known who has experienced violence up close and personal has a very different attitude towards it than what is shown in our popular culture (and what seeps into our political rhetoric). "The first rule of the Fight Club is that you don't talk about the Fight Club." Yet how many people staring at the screen stopped to realize that the actors they were watching were talking about the Fight Club? That's the disconnect between fantasy and reality at the heart this problem. Our culture lives vicariously through the fantasies of those who are the best at articulating being tough guys - not those who have proven themselves in some way. And so we paint targets on Congressional Districts and think nothing of it. We just don't live in a world where the white painted lines inside a rifle scope have any real meaning because we aren't a people who are used to actually pulling the trigger. We fantasize about it instead. If that's what we fantasize about our sense of reality is really twisted. And that's what our politics comes from - as long as we tolerate this BS. |
2011-01-12T02:32:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/10/political-violence/#comment-6096 |
| Dan, have you a link? I couldn't find it (and I thought I'd sound British, given the nature of the publication). I have to start taking credit for some of this stuff if I'm going to make some $$$. Thanks! :-) |
2011-01-11T23:07:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/10/political-violence/#comment-6092 |
| It's a bit much, but he is a great hero of mine. A lot to add, especially to a student of Machiavelli. And no matter what some people say, Alinsky is NOT a friend to Washington, regardless of who appears to have power. |
2011-01-10T22:42:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/10/rules-for-radicals/#comment-6074 |
| Anna, let's do our best to not be angry. I think sad is pretty reasonable, but I'd like all of this to tone down dramatically. I'm especially upset by the fake tough-guy talk because it's clearly more about what's fashionable and hip than anything remotely real, but I don't think all the heated stuff is not doing us any good. You and I both know that nearly everyone, left and right and however you want to divide us, thinks Washingtoon is more of a problem than a solution right now. Nearly everyone I know is looking to solve problems at a more activist level, state and local. The pretenders who want to talk tough would have a lot more friends - and get a lot more done - if they cut out the pop-culture BS and acted like what Dale rightly calls "real conservatives". Until then, they are just idiots and tools. I say we call the pretenders what they are. |
2011-01-10T17:20:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/10/political-violence/#comment-6052 |
| Dan, you're right that it's very hard to tell any of this until years later. I like the idea of a "half life" type decay of vehicles - that does sound about right to me. :-) Anna, I'm not always negative! I'm one of the biggest optimists out there, in fact, because I think that if we were honest about what's happening we could fix it pretty easily. So there! :-) |
2011-01-07T22:25:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/07/gasoline-consumption-drops/#comment-5971 |
| This piece got a bit lost in the holidays, which I think is a shame. The problems that are identified in this little tidbit of news are breathtaking in many ways, but it was successfully buried. Unemployment is a nearly permanent condition now, and that has to be solved for us to move on to the new economy. When I see valuations like $6B for Groupon (turned down!) and $50B for Basefook (Facebook) I think we haven't learned a damned thing. |
2011-01-06T15:22:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/29/overnight-wonder/#comment-5939 |
| Dale, the bottom line is that the sooner the Baby Boomers move out of our economy the sooner we'll find out just how good the next generation is. We need to make room for them, I'm sure of that much. | 2011-01-06T15:19:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/31/2010-meh/#comment-5938 |
| Dan, that's a bit of a challenge! I'm not sure how to work out capital gains tax, to be honest. I do favor a very flat tax with few write-offs generally, but with cap gains you're looking at what is defined as "income" to feed into that system. I'd have to crunch a lot of numbers. Anna, I didn't want to get specific with China because there are so many ways that they can stumble. It's one big bubble - but we can be sure that a centrally managed economy like theirs won't fail the same way ours did. I don't understand how their government works/doesn't-work well enough to know just how it will start to fall apart - and, for that matter, what they will tell us when it does. That's one of many reasons that I think that the "China Fever" we see so many US businesses contracting is a dangerous disease. |
2011-01-06T15:18:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/03/2011-predictions/#comment-5937 |
| You all raise excellent points -but you're also all claiming that you knew we'd regret it at the time. :-) I was going to say that openly, but I thought that there was no reason for anyone to believe me. However, I do know that many of the people I knew (and like to hang with) had the same opinion, so I'll believe you all. Still, where were we back in the day, eh? :-) Why do we get surprised at budget crises that occur at nearly regular intervals? I don't know. It's worth noting that it's been 20 years since our last DFL gov, Rudy Perpich, and he was the one that created the "Rainy Day Fund". Well, there's been a lot of precipitation lately, hasn't there? |
2011-01-06T15:14:40+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/05/jesse-checks/#comment-5936 |
| Call me old fashioned, but I had to have 10 and I was looking at 9 - hence the weather prediction. But I need a few gimmees, yes? I had some inside info on the foreclosure problem coming along. In many ways, it's just like the call I made on European sovereign debt a few months before it happened: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/ Sometimes, you can just see these things coming if you read up on it a lot. |
2011-01-03T16:41:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2011/01/03/2011-predictions/#comment-5869 |
| Dan, Anna: I set it up wrong if you see this as a pull between the industrial cycles and demographics - I think they are closely related, to be honest. I'm not sure what the relationship is at this point but I do think that the demographics are a big part of what we're seeing no matter what. Dan, you always raise good points. MPR is the best place, far and away, for any discussion of these issues. I missed the one where the problem for young people was raised, but to me that's issue #1 as we move forward. A lot of "experts" have said that this is a decades-long problem that we'll have, so I don't want to hear about short-term fixes. To me, the only solution has to be a generational change-over in the workforce - and the sooner we get that, the better. That's why I was promoting the one-time buy-in to social security as an alternative to unemployment benefits. Reducing the overhead per employee remains my top choice to fix the employment problem, but we can't underestimate the power of the demographics we're up against. I'm glad you heard a good discussion of it - but I really do want more! I won't come up with all the answers but I'm sure if we focus on it we all, together, can come up with something. |
2010-12-31T19:39:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/31/2010-meh/#comment-5812 |
| Dale, that's an excellent way to look at this revelation. If the tab triples every time we ask how big it is we have to wonder when we will get the whole answer. Here's another way to look at this - at a total of $13.7 Trillion (that we know of) the total emergency/stimulus/etc was about $100,000 for every household in the US. |
2010-12-29T16:40:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/29/overnight-wonder/#comment-5707 |
| I agree that it's the message and the values that make it special - nothing preachy, but deeply felt. And I love the problem solving, even if he does bluster over it at "90 miles an hour and then look at you as though you've just dribbled on yourself". :-) | 2010-12-27T17:01:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/27/doctor-who/#comment-5633 |
| That is a great video, and these are clearly very intelligent animals. Since they are better at problem solving than an average Congressperson perhaps we should consider higher office - or some kind of public post. :-) | 2010-12-22T18:06:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/22/smart-birds/#comment-5361 |
| [ My apologies to everyone, but I had to delete some comments. It wasn't the real lack of humor in them or the bizarre attempt at personal attacks that did it, either. The person in question did not provide a real e-mail address so they have to be regarded as a spammer. All I know is that they came via a server in Ypsilanti, Michigan. I'm terribly sorry as I haven't deleted a comment in a long time, but I won't just let people post completely anonymously. Thanks. ] | 2010-12-22T14:36:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/20/winter-solstice-2/#comment-5349 |
| John, I agree that this Depression started in 2001 - and that we have to start looking at that period to understand the big picture. I am quite sure that when historians look back on this period this Managed Depression will be called something like that and given a 2001 start date. The purpose of this piece was to help all of us interpret the noise of daily nooze as it flies past us. Rather limited value in that no matter what, eh? Thank you for pointing out that it is the same in the UK. I am not as familiar with your government websites so I am not the one to pull the statistics and graphs for you - but it makes sense that since we all went through the same bubble, more or less, we are living the same story. |
2010-12-19T17:32:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/07/job-creation/#comment-4869 |
| John: Thanks for stopping by with your view - you're asking a very good question. I'm attempting to relate two things that are often viewed as very separate. GDP figures are a measure of how the rich get richer and employment figures are a measure of how the poor get by. I've given up on getting our material-obsessed culture to simply focus on employment, as you suggest, 3even though it is at least as important as GDP. Tying the two together it about as good as I feel we can hope for. I do think that the severity of this Depression is changing that, if slowly. I think that you are quite right to say that employment is what matters - how everyone can contribute to the world. That is gradually becoming better understood, too. One can hope. |
2010-12-19T17:17:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4867 |
| Thanks for the report - sound a bit trippy for me to think of. I'm clearly more emotional about this than my neighbors, which is a bit strange but I'll get over it. |
2010-12-18T18:44:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/17/urban-renewal/#comment-4819 |
| Thanks, everyone. | 2010-12-15T20:35:09+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/13/not-the-kid/#comment-4709 |
| Thanks everyone.. Winter doesn't last forever - it just seems like it. :-) |
2010-12-15T20:34:43+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/15/boreas-rex/#comment-4708 |
| Anna: Fox, and most teevee nooze, is a net negative. I believe that people are far better informed when they watch nothing at all because they are at least not being exposed to stupid and utterly wrong things. I got the link from the Pakistan Daily by assuming that the third world would see this as a plant and following that line of reasoning. There are other links in Egypt and the Gulf, but I liked this one the best because it was very succinct and easy to read as an outsider - it's not full of "insider talk". But if you've been around a while you start to know the way the non-Western world thinks and you can formulate a good query for google. :-) |
2010-12-10T15:35:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/10/leaked-or-planted/#comment-4658 |
| Hey, *I* thought it was a good topic, but it's just not catching on. I'll think about how to re-phrase this and pick it up again. In the meantime, I'll see if I can get something going on MinnPost - why not, they've been kind to me (I think Barataria has been picked up 17 times now!). | 2010-12-10T15:17:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4656 |
| Dan, that's what I'm talking about! It's an interesting under-current that we may hear more about in the future - especially as the traditional source of all happiness in the USofA, imported plastic stuff, becomes more expensive. I thought I'd put it out there to see what people thought. It's either a serious yawn, far more "wooly" than Cameron thinks, or I'm waaay ahead of the curve. (prolly want to go with curtain #2 on that one, Dan ...) |
2010-12-09T22:33:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4652 |
| William's the one getting married - the heir. Not to be too picky. I haven't said much about wikileaks because I think we don't know what it's all about yet. This isn't the first time that they have released stuff and I'm pretty sure that at least some of what got out was intended to get out - either as disinformation or an attempt to get some of our allies to stop screwing around. The latter could include all the Gulf States but really seems to apply to China vis a vis North Korea. So I'm still not sure what the wikileaks has really done, and I don't think anyone will know for a short while. A lot of the initial outrage probably was faked, after all. Yes, I realize I'm a paranoid. But I think the people at the State Department, et al, are a little smarter than the wikileaks folks. An outlet like that is far too useful to ignore. |
2010-12-08T22:36:26+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4640 |
| This hasn't proved to be a popular topic, but I'm still fascinated that it's being discussed at all. According to one UK resident on twitter it's not likely to go anywhere ... which I get. But, yes, the idea of measuring well-being is a topic in itself. It seems that this naturally leads to equity in a society IF it can be measured and then maximized in any way at all. | 2010-12-08T20:48:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4638 |
| I certainly don't want to take a strong stand at this time. It's an interesting idea, but a survey? There has to be something else. I like putting this into a national dialogue but it's awfully mushy. I know Cameron means it and wants to implement it well, but I could see this as a tool for nefarious action by other politicos later on. Dunno yet. | 2010-12-08T17:43:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/08/national-wellbeing/#comment-4633 |
| Been a bit slow to respond to my own post - sorry, my laptop died and I've been working from the desktop. Not nearly as much fun. Jack: Tea is a personal thing, like a stolen moment in your bathrobe before you shower in the morning. For me, it's exactly like that at its best. :-) T: Darjeeling certainly has its moments. I have some Ceylon Orange Pekoe that I use in the afternoon sometimes - the sun streaming in the window sometimes says to me, "It's Pekoe time!" Dunno why, to be honest. It just does. Gwei: Thinking about the rituals and the moments apart from life forced by the gentle time it takes for a good steeping reminds me of pipe smoking. A much more filthy habit but one that has its own pace and requirement to slow down just long enough to enjoy the fruits of the world. Moments like this are why I can never be completely aesthetic and why Tao will always have an appeal over essence of Zen to me. Tarra: A very good tip I am checking out now. I have to confess I've been buying some teas locally from a tea store to supplement some of my habit - particularly in the Lapsang Souchong area, which is hard to come by. Earl Grey is a very special tea - the Bergamon in it makes an excellent iced tea that is lemon without being harsh. | 2010-12-08T02:24:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/06/winter-tea/#comment-4629 |
| Dan, that is just brilliant! I think you got to the core problem right away. It's as if we channel the same energy we used to put into just getting by into more and more push. There's a great Twilight Zone episode, "Willoughby" that I thought of as I read your comment. Know it? |
2010-12-03T18:59:48+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/03/re-invent-the-wheel/#comment-4600 |
| Jack, an excellent point. I bank at a tiny li'l credit union that serves Saint Paul and surroundings - and probably has a good idea on how to manage risk because they only invest in things that people can see. What do the small players who are up close and personal need to fill in the gaps? I'm almost ashamed to have concentrated on the big playahs here. Little banks can get cheap money, too - what can they do with it? Probably a lot more. | 2010-12-01T16:38:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/12/01/stated-risk/#comment-4577 |
| I want to get back to what Bruce said because it's important - and I don't think I've explained m'self very well. I'm trying to tie up a lot of loose ends here, and that includes making the connection between GDP growth and job growth. We saw in the regression line that we won't have serious job growth until we're well above 3.5% gains in GDP each year - and that's the link I want to make. So from the formula above we have all these independent variables. Neglecting any change in consumption, investment, or government any net increase in GDP comes from an increase in exports. Which is to say that in order to grow more jobs we need to grow more exports - or at least not have such a net negative in that category. Given that consumption is pretty much maxed out (like our plastic) and investment is just not going anywhere anytime soon AND our government is not likely to spend even more lately this is a pretty reasonable correlation. The only area that has potential for serious growth in the near future is probably exports - IF the stars and currencies align properly. Absent any of that, I don't see us getting the GDP growth we need to absorb the unemployment anytime soon. |
2010-11-30T17:26:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/#comment-4564 |
| Dan: Some of our production shifted to Canada and Mexico, so perhaps I should calculate the total balance of trade of North America - I'm always going on about how we're one people, so that might well be fair. Let me look into that and see if things look better - they should. Gwei: Thank you for taking this out of the US and towards the developed world. I don't know the details as well as my own nation, but I do know that the UK is in a position very similar to ours - and you say it's for very similar reasons, which only makes sense. So here is another connection to be looked at - what has been the net balance across the developed nations (say, G7) over the last 30 years or so? If it is a net negative it would be an interesting angle on all the things Brazil and China have been chiding us for lately. I think I have some interesting homework from these two comments. Thanks (I think ... :-) ) |
2010-11-30T15:01:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/#comment-4563 |
| Bruce, I see your point - and I've made it many times. I'd accept that if we weren't running such a consistent balance of trade deficit over such a long period of time. It's been said that "Machines should work, people should think" and I'm all for that if we're making about what we consume. We aren't, and haven't been for an awfully long time. A few years out of what is not a big problem but we're looking at a whole generation. | 2010-11-29T19:58:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/#comment-4559 |
| Anna: I've heard that argument, too, and I have to tell you I just don't get it. There's always hope that we'll consume less, much as that would hurt GDP, but as long as we do consume what we do the least we can do is make it ourselves. Sending the pollution problems out to developing nations isn't helping anyone in the long run - including Americans who need jobs! Jack: Good link, thanks! Want to include a live version: http://madeinusaforever.com/ Buy your holiday stuff from these guys, please! Meanwhile, it is true that any kind of sustained war (or anything!) would be very much ours to lose at this point. Demonizing unions is certainly part of the problem - and a very silly thing to do, IMHO. |
2010-11-29T18:26:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/29/making-stuff-2/#comment-4556 |
| Anna: I know, it's an uphill battle. Someone has to bring this stuff up, and it might as well be li'l ol' me. Jack: Yes, that is really the problem. And those who talk the loudest seem to have the most authority in this field (and many others, but I digress). That means that nonsense is repeated constantly. I can see it sometimes in the responses that I get in various media - you didn't even read what I wrote! is what I want to say. But I try to smile and be polite and just ... move on. It's funny, in a way, even when it's really rather sad. Don't worry, eveyone - in time, I'm sure it'll all even out. That's one of the big problems with so much newness, IMHO! :-) | 2010-11-22T22:56:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/22/grounding/#comment-4518 |
| Call it a bad habit, Jim? :-) You know I'm always trying to make connections between things - and that might not always work at first. It's hard to do this in 800 words or less (even with such an excellent picture as a prop!). I know this is a hard argument and it will be very unpopular one way or another. But I think it's very real. There just isn't a Renaissance without grounding in fundamentals. That was true in the Arab world 1000 years ago and in Europe 500 years ago. Our Founding Fathers here in the USofA were very well grounded in this stuff, too, and it really shows. Call me a hardcore conservative (small "c") but I agree that some of this new stuff is grossly over-rated - but still very useful, all the same if we look at it right. |
2010-11-22T17:33:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/22/grounding/#comment-4515 |
| Thanks everyone, especially the new people. Barataria is all about experiments in expanding our notion of the online social world and how it can expand. The "School" of Barataria is stronger with new input - and I'd encourage you all to flip through and offer the same experience to other subjects at hand here. I want to take off on a tangent raised by Howie, whose comment is dense with topics that could easily be explored in a series of 800 word posts on their own. One that intrigues me the most is how each community exists in relation to other communities, something I alluded to briefly in my own post (the layers of an onion). Many of my clients have an existing community in real life that social media will only supplement. A yarn store, for example, has a tight community that includes people who also tweet about their own projects, share them on facebook, and have an active presence on ravelry.com (an excellent site if you want to examine online community!). How do we tie them all together? To a large extent, the social media effort that this particular business needs is nothing more than that - tying their community into the larger ones. A very different problem. The interaction, the give-and-take, the sharing, the contributions to the art all take place in real life - they just need context to reinforce them and make them stronger. A very different problem from creating an online community from scratch, no? I think I have another post on this topic. The reason I wanted to deal with community as a concept revolves around this problem, which is integrating social media to the real world. Online communities do tend to be homogeneous and distinct. I want to bring in Connections Theory to broaden the definition away from the nuts and bolts of the peculiar online advantages and problems. Thanks to everyone, this is good stuff! | 2010-11-21T18:17:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4500 |
| Anna: I believe you're thinking of "Trust" from March 2009: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/03/27/trust/ It's a piece about how people organize communities. You're right, it's very relevant. But I'm dealing exclusively with physical communities in that case, which may or may not be different. I dunno, there may be more there to talk about. |
2010-11-20T21:28:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4495 |
| erica: Thanks so much! I agree that inspiration is very important, and I guess that's what working together brings out in people more than anything. A good way to put it, indeed. All of these definitions of community seem to include all the things that I say are needed to have good writing - something for heart and arm and brain. I like this a lot. I feel like "community" has come back to what I've long said about writing generally, which is that it's how it gets into a person's head that counts. Dialogue and community come back together that way. Very good stuff! For those that don't know, I stole my often used phrase "heart and arm and brain" from "The Mary Ellen Carter" by Stan Rogers. :-) |
2010-11-20T17:45:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4493 |
| Devilish: Popularity contests are a huge feature of social media, unfortunately. They do have the greatest potential for wrecking things because they are elitist and exclusionary by nature. People who are a bit different - and I count both of us in that! - are deliberately left out regardless of what we have to contribute. A real community is not so closed, and there is always strength in diversity. You raise an excellent point. I covered some of that in this post - it's a bit harsh, and might be stronger if ti took a step back, but the point is there: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/08/16/community-versus-scene/ Anna: "Something outside of ourselves" is a good way to look at it, too. You raised the "big high school" that I've commented on before. I do fear that there is an entire generation out there who have experienced few communities outside of High School and work, both of which can be terribly dysfunctional at times. Selfishness, insecurity, ego ... I think they are all the same thing, too. |
2010-11-19T20:08:29+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4488 |
| Jan, I'm more and more sure all the time that online will never be the same as real life. Ryan & Dale: I really like how you both emphasize your own contribution to community - you defined it as an active thing, not a static. I can't remember exactly where I first saw this line (perhaps "Bowling Alone"?) - "community isn't something you have, like a pizza." You also both talked about connections, which is something I wanted to tie in but felt I was getting too long-winded as it was (this piece is about getting input from others!). I think I see some broad agreement so far on some very interesting things. Let me go troll for more views and get back to you later. :-) | 2010-11-19T18:45:57+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/19/what-is-community/#comment-4484 |
| Housing had to come down, so I never had an opinion on it, to be honest - it just had to happen. Payroll taxes go right to the overhead per employee that I've been stressing needs to be cut if we are going to create jobs, so I'm generally in favor of such reductions - but a temporary "holiday" seems a lot less interesting to me than a real reduction and concentrated effort in reducing all overhead. However, it's a good way to get more money out there over broad base - very much like the "helicopter drop" of money! | 2010-11-18T13:50:45+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/17/deflation/#comment-4471 |
| Thanks. I'd like to get this message out more widely because I'm very frustrated by the fact that economic news is far less forward looking than the weather or sports, to name two popular news segments. Managing risk in changing times is difficult and I fear we lack a lot of the basic tools to do it. I would like to see that change. Heck, I'd really like to have a gig helping to make that improvement. |
2010-11-17T19:00:02+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/17/deflation/#comment-4466 |
| We had similar conferences 1 and 2 years ago, and very little happened there, too. I've been upset about that because the worldwide currency regime needs a major overhaul - but no one is in a position to do it. The last time we got something together it happened because the US was in a position to win WWII and dictate terms to the world: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/10/20/out-of-the-woods/ Who will do it now? Apparently no one. The "Free Market" will find its own way, apparently, and it's not doing a good job of it so far. I fear that when it makes a move it will be to dump the US Dollar pretty quickly, causing a lot of turmoil. I'm not a huge fan of heavy regulation, but some sense of order benefits everyone at the least - and currencies do require a lot of cooperation between governments that just isn't happening. We're possibly looking at a major free market freefall, I fear. Fasten your seatbelts! |
2010-11-16T23:50:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/15/g20-finds-its-seoul/#comment-4457 |
| Anna: Yes and no, but thanks for the chance to clarify. On re-read this does seem a bit more right-wing than I'd like. I'm deeply worried that we are still, two years into the point where this Depression became obvious, not treating it as urgently as we need to. I fault both parties domestically for that. There is still a vague focus on increasing consumer spending to lift the economy, which is to say the same old Keynesian stuff we slammed on hard through the Bush years. I took the tone I did because I was trying to write from a Brazilian perspective, more or less. I didn't make a big deal of that because I'm still not 100% sure that I can do it well, but I wanted to try it out. Developing nations are, indeed, very critical of what we're doing - but it's important to note that Brazil's government is very much to the left of ours in almost every key way of looking at it (and is sometimes called "Marxist" by respected news organizations). So please don't take this as "right wing" criticism. Although regular readers will know that I frequently see our left and right as being hopelessly mixed up right now, so it may domestically be a rightist argument! |
2010-11-15T16:41:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/15/g20-finds-its-seoul/#comment-4451 |
| > beg for forgiveness while kneeling on a chopping block. Doesn't that seem a bit ... I dunno, excessive at best? Seriously, a call to humiliate members of your own party hardly seems productive at all. That kind of internal warfare would create a solid generation of Republican rule, something which I do not think we can tolerate. So I think it's best to leave that kind of language out of the equation no matter what. OK? |
2010-11-12T22:58:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/#comment-4437 |
| Eh, I'm not really Amish, you know. The term is "Plattdeutcher" for the ethnicity - means literally "soil German" or farmer. It's hard to talk about because I'm not really one of them but it does color my outlook pretty heavily. Very hard to explain well. But I do love this story of deliverance. I think it's time we give Penn his due! |
2010-11-12T18:07:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/12/a-thanksgiving-story/#comment-4433 |
| Pat, while it's true that progress does seem to only come in waves (to the extent it comes at all) I'm worried that we've lost some critical pieces of our main argument for being lately. I addressed some of them here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/10/25/work-creates-wealth/ In many ways, it's just a re-hash of what I've been saying since before the 2008 election, but I'm trying to refine my arguments to get at the key issue. Also I'm trying to get something to catch on. :-) |
2010-11-12T00:52:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/#comment-4426 |
| Bob - big THANK YOU for that contribution! Reich is a real hero, and he speaks to what I was getting at (badly, by comparison). We do have to change the debate. Big forces are running people's lives in ways that they don't understand, and we have to show that we are the way they can band together and get some control over it. That's my lesson from what Reich said. Holly - I'll get with ya in a bit ... yes, it's about inspiring people and how we lead, more or less. Take it however you want - getting some good alternative perspectives here away from my original bit and it's been gold so far! :-) |
2010-11-10T21:04:24+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/#comment-4421 |
| Solomon, your point that listening to voters is the most important thing is what good politics is all about. It goes with what L Z had to say about picking the individual in the sense that a good track record does appear to be what people vote on in the first place - a good system should be able to respond to that, too. Dale, Janine, I'm no so sure that the future is on the Left. Yes, it is for the short term, but if we let that argument drift for a while we might be surprised where we go. It might look like today's center, but it also might look like something completely different. That's what I hope. |
2010-11-10T19:16:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/10/the-future-of-the-democratic-party/#comment-4418 |
| Carol: Connectedness is, generally, a good thing. There is some inherent strangeness when connections go through a machine, as I've commented on before: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/07/19/barking-at-the-net/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/10/01/online-life-as-an-onion/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/06/28/ex-machina/ My use of "Barataria" has the same origin as jean Lafitte's name for his own "Kingdom" in the swamps of Louisiana - the "cheap lands" or swamp promised to Sancho Panza at the end of Don Quixote: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/about/ Hope that makes sense! :-) |
2010-11-06T21:29:59+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/05/social-not-media/#comment-4388 |
| Tina: What the Bush Admin did was technically TARP, or "Troubled Asset Relief Program". It wasn't as much about attempting to stimulate the economy as it was to prevent a massive failure. But if that's too much of a quibble you do have a point - it makes more sense to refer to "The Federal Government" than "The Obama Administration" above. I do think that would make the piece stronger. As for the hoax quip - I think you can answer that yourself, which makes me wonder why you raised it. If you're sore at me, I'm sorry, but I did feel compelled to do whatever I can for good friends who I think are getting screwed. |
2010-11-04T21:10:16+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/29/what-happened/#comment-4376 |
| Over the long haul it's hard to say what history will write about the era we're in now. I really do think the dice are in the air regardless of who wins any given election. Just want to point out that in the Minnesota Governor election Emmer received 910k votes, which is less than the 1.0-1.1M that I was calling his "base" from previous elections. I'm going to stand by what I said and chalk this up to his mis-steps along the way. He really should have won with everything else running in his favor. |
2010-11-04T13:56:55+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/11/03/lead-the-way/#comment-4373 |
| Thanks, everyone. I hope it was as much fun for everyone as it was for me. I know that no legacy media took this story, but that's OK - we cooked it up a bit fast and didn't have enough time to really play it out. What matters is that Saint Paul has its legends continue to comfort us when we need them the most. Gini, I take the word "lying" in the same spirit that Mark Twain did: http://grammar.about.com/od/60essays/a/lyingessay.htm A good storyteller is nothing more than a good liar put to good use. :-) |
2010-10-27T21:41:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/27/hoax/#comment-4332 |
| I feel as though I should admit this now that the day is over. I was going to post about how much I miss Sen. Paul Wellstone on this, the 8th anniversary of his death. I decided instead that he would want us all to focus on what's important moving forward with courage and dignity. So that's what I wrote about instead. I especially appreciate talking about the importance of education and reforming it so that everyone has what they really need because that's what Paul and Sheila would always say was the most important thing. I miss you, Paul and Sheila. |
2010-10-25T23:07:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/25/work-creates-wealth/#comment-4318 |
| Dave: We agree on all of these things, but the Democrats have to realize that in order to remain irrelevant they at least have try to get beyond the consumer frenzy. The Republicans just have a better series of talking, er, screaming points right now. Dan: Yup, "Labor Creates All Wealth" is what I started from. I decided to avoid the word "Labor" because it's taken on a different meaning than it once did. I didn't realize that phrase was over 200 years old, so thanks! |
2010-10-25T22:05:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/25/work-creates-wealth/#comment-4316 |
| LZ, you're very much right that we aren't training kids in the skills necessary to be flexible and "keep their eyes open" to take advantage of new opportunities in a changing world. Learning how you learn is probably the one thing that is the most critical for any kid, but we always favor a "system" that keeps chugging along no matter what. The kids I've seen do like to learn when they get that spark in their minds, but everyone learns differently. You are right that education is, ultimately, the basis of everything. It's the difference between a "Brave New World" of appliance users who don't understand jack about what's going down around them and fully engaged citizens of a Democratic Republic who can make things happen. If I could sum it up, I'd say that Education is the ultimate investment in people. If we can't do that well the human side - the work - really is lost. Thanks for the addition. |
2010-10-25T16:30:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/25/work-creates-wealth/#comment-4312 |
| I will let everyone know as soon as we get something resolved. | 2010-10-20T18:54:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/20/the-streets-of-lowertown/#comment-4267 |
| Thanks, Dan. I don't know how this plays out politically - a lot depends on how much people get "into it" and understand what's going on. As long as they get to use technical jargon (and it isn't translated inthe popular press) I think that it'll go over most people's heads. I think that's a real shame if it goes down that way. BTW, I was searching for when I first wrote about this. I didn't say anything directly when we had QE1 because there was so much else going on - I kept it in context. But I did make this joke on April Fool's Day 2007: http://tinyurl.com/3lcgl8 This was back when I was a "perma-bear" to many people. :-) |
2010-10-15T17:36:22+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/15/quantitative-easing/#comment-4257 |
| It's worse than that, Anna. For one thing, what if it doesn't work - like the first round? Keep trying it and pumping more money into the economy? For another thing it does challenge us all to re-evaluate what all this stuff means in our daily lives. Some lefties (like me) get upset when people angrily shout the anti-tax mantra, "It's my money!" because they (reasonably) don't like the word "my". I get upset because of the word "money". It's nothing more than a way of keeping score, something that is only defined in a social sense in the first place. Anyone who stops and thinks about this stuff has to realize that without some kind of agreement, ie a "social contract, it's all perfectly meaningless. I hope that QE and QE2 (hopefully there won't be a QE3!) will get people to realize this. |
2010-10-15T16:39:08+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/15/quantitative-easing/#comment-4255 |
| Mike, you have to ask yourself why good candidate win - and the answer is that they get people to show up. At least, that's the case for the DFL. I left out all other parties because, if you look at it from the perspective of the task in front of the DFL, what matters most is the constancy of that Republican base - it's 1.0-1.1M people no matter what you do. I almost left off the DFL numbers because they don't really matter all that much, either (outside of explaining why it's been 6 elections since they won). |
2010-10-14T13:04:05+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/13/those-who-show-up/#comment-4243 |
| Exactly. It's really all about who shows up. Percentages can tell us something about how it's going, but in the end what counts is whether or not the DFLers show up at the polls. The Republicans are pretty much going to be there no matter what. A different way to look at things, is all. I get tired of the horse race in part because I think it actually discourages people from doing their bit on election day. The real story is both easier and more complicated. My kinda story. :-) |
2010-10-13T17:02:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/13/those-who-show-up/#comment-4240 |
| Thanks. I said about as much as I could last year for Dia de la Raza, a holiday I do think is worth celebrating. I was struck this year by the lack of any mention of any Columbus Day sales or anything (other than the lack of mail today!) and the coincidence with Canada's Thanksgiving. It seems to me that we are just plowing along not even trying to do anything except work ourselves to death (at least among those who still have jobs!). There's so much we need to do as a culture if we're really going to be a nation that can deal with its problems. |
2010-10-11T19:31:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/11/dia-de-la-raza-and-thanksgiving/#comment-4223 |
| Yes, it's Bananas. :-) Sorry, no prize, tho. | 2010-10-07T15:39:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/06/currency-war/#comment-4205 |
| This was a bit of a subtle piece, dealing with a subject that not many people encounter in their daily lives at all. But it was interesting to me one year after writing about how ForEx people were the ones to keep an eye on that we are entering a time when the competitive world economy is undergoing a real shakedown. This is simply not a good thing, but it was inevitable. Let's see how it plays. | 2010-10-07T14:12:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/06/currency-war/#comment-4203 |
| Erica: Neat interactive graph, thanks! That was especially good after Bruce's comment here - it all goes back to productivity at some point. I do agree that decoupling health care completely from work is one of the most important things we can do - a point Obama half-heartedly was trying to make when he emphasized health care reform so early in his term. We didn't quite get what we needed on that score, but we got something. Hopefully it'll get the ball rolling. Bob: A solid program of construction is always a good idea when we have a situation like this, and I hope we're doing enough to make a difference. I saw today that initial unemployment claims are still around 450k, which is an awful lot of people looking for work. Ug. |
2010-10-07T14:10:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4202 |
| Also, I forgot to include this link for some reason - it's another post with a lot of fun graphs: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2010/07/07/job-creation/ "Overall, the chart looks a lot like 1980 when it comes to claims for jobless benefits. As the year progresses the simplest thing to watch if you are looking for signs of a recovery is for initial claims to drop below 450k per week, where it has been for all of 2010." (they haven't consistently for the 3 months that have passed since this was written) |
2010-10-04T21:47:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4194 |
| Bruce: Productivity is a good addition. My hunch, when I latched onto this one graph, was that we were looking square into the eyes of another perspective on the "money multiplier" problem, or why Fed stimulus just doesn't work as well as it used to. Somehow, this is all related, I'm sure. Anna: I agree, the announcement that the recession is over was pretty silly at best, but they have their technical definitions - all of them backward looking. Real helpful, ain't it? :-) |
2010-10-04T21:39:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4193 |
| Yes, this is all related. There's been a lot of new data and new perspectives on the economy lately - I'm reporting the ones that get me thinking and give me a chance to add my own research to the topic. I think that this net difference in base GDP growth to affect unemployment could possibly be related to the fact that we're playing with the numbers and doing too much economic stimulation (without a real money multiplier!). I did leave that in there, if vaguely, so that you can draw your own conclusions. However, I do think that if there are high barriers to job creation the relationship will be very out of whack and I'm going to stay with that as the main problem. I'll go as far as to say that upwards of 5% GDP growth YoY is necessary to make any kind of dent in the unemployment rate, however. That looks pretty solid to me no matter what the cause. |
2010-10-04T16:16:06+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/10/04/growing-jobs/#comment-4190 |
| Dan: It may just be age, but I do think that my conversations with strangers are turning a bit. Just a feeling, hard to quantify. Anna: I just want to know if I'm not alone in what I'm seeing, and you seem to agree with that. I appreciate that. What we call it or how we describe it is another thing. Jim: Excellent point - perhaps the line for "really crazy s^&t" finally was drawn and everyone has to stop screwing around and make it clear which side they are standing on. |
2010-09-24T16:36:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/24/acceptance/#comment-4147 |
| Yuri, excellent question. If someone says "Yes" you probably have to be prepared to engage them, at least out of politeness. I'd say that you could just ask "Why?", like a little kid, or you could say why you don't think it's nearly as important as pick-one:[economy, deficit, unemployment, healthcare]. Don't Ask, Don't Tell is one that is important to a lot of people who are affected by it - and it is a Civil Rights issue. I think everyone gets a free pass on a civil rights issue that affects them to say that it's clearly their #1 without any question from li'l _me_. Now, if it's *not* something that affects them I think it's fair game to ask them why they care. I've been through that with a lot of ex-military and it's always been pretty respectful even though we disagree, so I guess that's all I can expect. Short version: Don't think DADT qualifies as a "Dark Issue" because some people have really well thought out reasons why it's their #1. There are way worse issues out there, IMHO. |
2010-09-23T15:14:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/18/dark-issues/#comment-4140 |
| Dan, I get all this kind of chatter. I don't usually respond or say anything, but I'm pretty sure this one will spill over into the regular press. I wanted to be sure the real message wasn't lost in a playground spat. I do feel bad for the guy because I think he's about to have a lot of embarrassment added to a really bad situation for him. He doesn't need all this, either. |
2010-09-22T21:37:36+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/22/stonewalling/#comment-4138 |
| Bruce, as usual I think we agree completely. I honestly do think that there are ways to reduce the amount of government we have - or, at least, redirect what we have to be more effective. But I do not think we'll ever get there as long as one side is so incredibly dogmatic and refuses to engage in the debate in any way. Our system requires us to be engaged in order to get anything done. These guys aren't up to that challenge, and it saddens me. I might be a DFLer, but I value good competition - without that, we get lazy and useless. | 2010-09-22T15:24:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/20/economic-theory/#comment-4130 |
| Dan, you bring up two things I've been thinking about a lot lately. The first is how much, in practice, this particular economic theory winds up being exactly the same as Keynesianism. I decided not to get into it here, but in the past I've gone after the same "cut taxes, but not spending" routine as Keynesianism - and I do think they are very much the same thing. The second point is how very much the world changed not just in WWI but immediately after - and how little any of us understand of this turbulent time. The influenza, the rise of the religious right and prohibition, and the simultaneous success of woman's suffrage are all not well understood by anyone I know. You are right to add a series of economic and social theories which came from this time that we accept as just part of our body of thought - but we have very little idea what really created these theories or what they mean. Weird stuff. Good luck with your hearing! |
2010-09-20T15:01:14+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/20/economic-theory/#comment-4123 |
| Jim, I hope we can laugh. Better than shouting (or crying?) :-) Dan, I'm staking my claim to being the first to call for this - had to "overlink" a bit. Sorry. But yes, please go visit The Daily Show and see the call - you'll love it, I'm sure. Note: "The Call to Sanity" unfortunately does rhyme with "Sean Hannity". I just want to point out that in the great scheme of rhyme and reason the two may be together in rhyme but never in reason. Thank you. | 2010-09-17T16:00:32+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/17/rally-to-restore-sanity/#comment-4116 |
| Thanks, everyone. I've been thinking of this for months now. The latest incident simply put me over the top. I'm not the best Christian in the world, I admit. But I do take the teachings of Jesus very seriously. It has become obvious to me that the mis-representation of what he taught us has completely overshadowed the message of genuine peace and grace, which is to say that if we don't act soon we're in danger of losing the truth. I can't sit back and let that happen any longer. I hope you all feel the same and gain the strength to start calling out this terrible distortion for what it is. The Pharisees cannot win this one. Thank you. |
2010-09-08T20:16:34+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/09/08/pharisees/#comment-4066 |
| I accept the last criticism. How about this: Good writing is a process. Write for humans, but edit for SEO. Work better? :-) |
2010-09-02T22:36:46+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/20/forget-seo-write-for-humans/#comment-4044 |
| Gini: I know that you can do a little optimizing to make sure you get to the top of the search engines - as I do from time to time. But I also know that you write, first and foremost, for humans and not just the search engines. :-) I'm not really against a little SEO, as shown in this particular post. But good content always has its own rewards. I think even Daniel Burnham might agree (especially now that I own the poor guy!). :-) |
2010-08-24T20:53:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/20/forget-seo-write-for-humans/#comment-4012 |
| T, I think the main point in community building is that people are never going to stay "on topic" enough to focus on something as narrow as just real estate. There's simply far more to the community than that. The way I describe "Community" is to take a bar that has a wide variety of people in it. Why do they come there? Each has their own reasons, but generally they know other people they hope to meet. And the conversations go off in all kinds of different directions. And, incidentally, if the biz you're plugging online is a bar or restaurant, the center of community for the purpose of social media *is* the bar itself, not anything online. It's all a matter of crossing from the virtual world to the real world easily, which people do in a lot of ways. I'm still learning by watching on that score. :-) |
2010-08-17T13:26:38+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/16/community-versus-scene/#comment-3967 |
| Oh, Molly, I worry about that. :-) Jim: Come up with better labels, it's OK. I'm not usually good at that kind of thing. :-) |
2010-08-11T18:44:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/08/11/opt-out-of-da-noize/#comment-3948 |
| Thanks, everyone. The report is pretty stark, and while it generated some heat when it first came out the outrage died pretty quickly. I'm not sure what was done in response and I'd like to know more. What I can tell you is that this anniversary would be a perfect time to investigate the systemic problems - but the techno stuff seemed way kewler. That's why I think we are doomed. |
2010-07-30T18:31:20+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/30/a-bridge-too-far/#comment-3894 |
| I think it's very strange how most people think cats aren't social at all. They clearly have their own language, of a kind. Much more expressive than dogs in some ways! | 2010-07-26T23:12:17+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/26/cat-pride/#comment-3868 |
| I think this is a situation where it's easy to fall into stereotypes, and for at least one point I made that mistake myself. Individual men and women all react to the pressures differently - and as time goes on there is an increasing diversity as to how people respond to these pressures. I wanted to write this from the perspective of the social images of men and women that are held as a kind of cultural framework. I can see that this is a very difficult thing to do because it does become very personal to all of us at some point. I, at least, can't help but react the way I do personally. Everyone winds up having their own decisions, crises, and directions in response to the pressures. The main point is this: gender roles changed damned fast in the USofA and most of the "Developed World". In many ways, cultural pressure went from one extreme to another when it comes to defined roles for men and women, boys and girls. I don't think what we have now has been absorbed, thought out, or even questioned in ways that cause anything other than a lot of pain. It's hard to keep that from getting personal - and falling back into stereotypes. Thanks to everyone for helping me stand back a bit. |
2010-07-22T16:21:35+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/21/role-playing/#comment-3854 |
| Thanks. I'm just trying to get some context together to make sense of this smoldering rage that doesn't appear capable of being directed in a positive way. Honestly, some of this has been going on for decades, but has government actually gotten any smaller? You'd think people would be able to get a clue from the horrible track record, but they seem to think that getting angrier is all they can do. They don't seem to realize how much that makes them tools of the infotainment world and some very selfish politicos. | 2010-07-14T19:07:25+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/14/rage-against-rage/#comment-3809 |
| Thanks, everyone. I hate looking back like this, making judgments about today. But I can't help it. We're in a deep hole and have to figger a way out. | 2010-07-09T16:55:52+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/09/all-politics-is-local-2/#comment-3789 |
| Gwei: Thanks for the update on the UK. What affects you affects us, and vice-versa. This is a very global problem, like all Depressions, and has the potential to keep spreading as long as there is a clear shortage of work to go around. It's separating us all into the Haves and Have-nots in ways that I do not think we are used to. |
2010-07-07T16:58:53+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/07/job-creation/#comment-3774 |
| Thanks, everyone. Jim, you have an excellent point. I'll see if I can dig out some more things highlighting the service sector. | 2010-07-07T15:19:51+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/07/job-creation/#comment-3772 |
| Gwei, I've heard form many people wh osurvived the Depression of the 1930s what a wonderful time it was because people stayed together and made their own fun. Funny, isn't it? I guess it's all a matter of attitude at some point. Jim & Anna, I don't like our holiday becoming just another excuse to drink beer at the cabin - but I agree that it's coming to that. |
2010-07-05T16:13:23+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/05/family-time/#comment-3761 |
| Paul, that's exactly what I want to get at. We're being pulled apart right now and a lot of people don't seem to think of us as "one people" the way they used to. But we are. What ideals hold us together? "Freedom" seems like it would be as likely to pull us apart as an abstract idea, so there has to be more. Confession time: I've told this story before, and people ask how I could come up with something so good on the fly. They don't believe me. Actually, I got the idea that Jefferson's statement in the Declaration is our catechism from George Will. So there. :-) Also, Harald spoke English very well. On re-read, I should have made it clear that I didn't have to make my fancified statements in German (which I could not ever do!). |
2010-07-03T13:44:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/02/fly-the-flag-2/#comment-3755 |
| Thanks, guys. Yes, Jim, I was doing it more for the fun than any kind of "responsibility" at first - and it was fun. Janine, I think people respect us generally more than we usually think, but it's really best to make sure and be a decent guest in another nation. | 2010-07-02T15:18:37+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/07/02/fly-the-flag-2/#comment-3752 |
| Dan - that sounds like a pretty good ride to me! I guess in the interest of disclosure I should say that with tax, tag, and some front-end work it wound up hitting $1400 for mine. Escorts are cheap and reliable, but a Honda would be a bit nicer. I can forgive that much vanity pretty easily. :-) Jim - There are many options, for sure. Every time I see a big hulking piece of iron on the road I have to wonder about people's values in life, to be honest. I know, "judge not, lest ye be judged," but it's hard to not at least wonder. All I have to do is look at the "oil geyser", as Anna calls it, and question a lot of where we are as a people. |
2010-06-25T16:05:33+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/25/car-ful-living/#comment-3717 |
| OK, now I'll write about football! Obviously, I wrote this before the matches today (so I had time to watch!). I did not expect England to beat Slovenia, so that just shows what I know. I have to say, however, that the US team are exactly what Soccer needs in the USofA right now. Robbed of two goals in two successive games, they never seemed to let it rattle them. They stayed focused and patiently waited for their opportunities. When the time came, they made the fast break and worked well as a team. They aren't flashy at all, but are a solid team built on fundamentals. In short, the kids who are playing soccer across this nation right now have just about the perfect role models for the spirit of the game. I couldn't ask for anything more - especially since we topped our Group in the first round! Thanks, team USA. You're the best! (I hope what I said about Latin America holds for us, too!) |
2010-06-23T17:38:19+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/23/gooooal/#comment-3706 |
| You are correct, Bruce. This is merely the same thing as always concentrated in one very important place. | 2010-06-22T13:23:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/21/the-gulf-of-life/#comment-3700 |
| Thanks - I'm glad you're taking this the way I meant it, which is to say as idle speculation. I'm not saying that something terrible is going to happen with our climate, just that there is a real possibility that it could go down that way. I just want us to keep our eyes open as we move ahead and think this through. If nothing else, a serious drought through the whole breadbasket of North America would be a good time to hold corn and soybean futures. It also is a good reason to put an end to the wasteful practice of converting grain to ethanol, although I suspect that people who don't understand how silly that process is will probably call for more ethanol, believing it is a substitute for oil somehow. | 2010-06-21T15:00:01+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/21/the-gulf-of-life/#comment-3694 |
| The call that resulted in our losing the game was an offsides, a lot like icing in hockey. It wasn't offsides to me. The biggest problem with soccer is the lack of checking, which sets up a lot of rules based on contact that are very hard to enforce evenly. Worse yet, a lot of players like to act hurt to try to get the refs to believe that there was a foul - it's very undignified, at best. :-) |
2010-06-18T21:48:44+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/18/futbol/#comment-3679 |
| Jim, Janine - The role of the refs is the one thing I don't like about soccer/football. It is very frustrating at times. Molly - I've come to accept this over time, too. There is a very important thing about sports that when it works well you can't deny it. Football (American) is something that I've seen bring people of various races and backgrounds together in a city that was torn by all kinds of strife, so I won't complain. When it works, it's often the one thing that really does work. I say go with it. (but don't set cars on fire, please? :-) ) |
2010-06-18T18:57:18+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/18/futbol/#comment-3677 |
| Hey, maybe I should pitch Downriver again, if that's what's in! Good thing we're getting away from vampires, that was old a long time ago. | 2010-06-16T22:49:07+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/16/public-and-private/#comment-3669 |
| Thanks, everyone! Gwei, I'm open to a side conversation by mail, since we're in the same situation in many ways. | 2010-06-07T16:00:31+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/06/07/innovation/#comment-3625 |
| Thanks, Beth! I took the liberty of fixing those, but I'll confess how they happened. Spell-check can make me lazy at times, and in this case all instances of "twitter" and "retweet" were underlined as incorrect words. I simply got used to it and didn't look at them more closely. D'oh! | 2010-05-30T13:34:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/05/28/ode-to-twitter/#comment-3564 |
| Thanks, Kory. I appreciate your experience very much. | 2010-04-19T20:18:56+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/04/16/formaldehyde/#comment-3312 |
| Jim: I have no trouble saying that the past is over and it was just wrong. But the past is very hard to make any sense of at all. I tried to make it clear that MacMullen had no personal animosity towards anyone because of their skin color - he really didn't. Like any small town, Perrine was a place where people knew each other pretty well - but there was still obvious racism. Getting to understand this situation is more than just understanding the moral ambiguity - there was situational ambiguity. It just happened, it's just the way it was. That's the heritage that anyone who grew up in the South has to face. The Civil War is a lot easier for some people to digest because at least something happened. The Old South was a place that was far harder to make any sense of at all. More to the point, it's been entirely swept away by a lot of things. That's a lot of what really hurts to people. They have absolutely no way of making any sense of it at all. So they invent a "Heritage" that, at least, has some flash to it. |
2010-04-12T19:49:28+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/04/12/confederate-history-month/#comment-3276 |
| Thank you both! I do appreciate very much not just your readership but your contribution to this community. I know I'm a much better writer when I have solid feedback, especially when things simply don't work. I know I've been corrected a few times, too. You guys keep me honest and focused and add so very much to the richness of the topics I humbly write about. Thank you! There really wouldn't be a Barataria without you! |
2010-04-09T15:16:12+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/04/09/three-years-on/#comment-3258 |
| eeee-Yup! Funny how things get past the press so easily, iddn't it? | 2010-04-07T15:01:49+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/04/07/elian/#comment-3240 |
| John: There is a good reason that MPR is a target lately, and it has a lot to do with their revenue model not breaking like everyone else's. The Strib has good reason to be afraid, IMHO. But look at the Annual Report, esp page 5: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/about/mpr/finance/annual_report_2008.pdf MPR gets 13.8M$ of its 80.5M$ from individual contributions - that 17%. But there's more to it than that. I can't find it again, but I remember once seeing a breakdown of those individual contributions by what services people support. If I remember correctly, the share of "Classical Music Only" plus half of "Both Classical and News" added up to about 60%. IF that is right, I have trouble believing that the expenses of Classical are as large as news gathering - it's a person in a booth spinning discs, fer goodness sake! So I have a sneaking suspicion that Classical Music is subsidizing News at MPR. But I can't prove it. Can anyone help me with this? If that does prove to be the case, individual contributions to News are probably around 10% of the News budget, which is similar to what subscriptions pay at a paper, if I remember right (or at least ballpark). Interesting, no? It's still a very different revenue model that hasn't broken yet, but the statement "people don't pay the real cost of their news" holds. :-) |
2010-03-31T20:05:50+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/31/journalism-past-and-future/#comment-3202 |
| It's a bit too long as a piece, but I'm commenting on some discussions I've had with several people over the last week. It seems to me that several themes keep coming back and one central point has to be made. I hope that this is only the start of a different kind of conversation on the topic. | 2010-03-31T17:14:15+00:00 | Erik Hare | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/31/journalism-past-and-future/#comment-3198 |
| That is an excellent way to look at it, T! Teresa has a number of photos and comments on the flood on St Paul Real Estate Blog that you might want to check out. I'm not a photo person, so go to T for the visuals. | 2010-03-24T15:03:42+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/24/rising-water/#comment-3138 |
| Gwei: Sadly, I have so little of my people's old language in me that I can make out the words for Patrick, festival, and day - and that's about it. :-) Thank you! Dale: Yes, the story keeps moving the same way all the time. It's been that way for well over 150 years. It's like Fraternity's initiation hazing to treat the latest "different" people badly for a while before they get to be full members. But today, we're all Frat Brothers of a kind, at least in the sense that we'll drink too much and get sick. :-) |
2010-03-17T12:28:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/17/st-patricks-day-2/#comment-3097 |
| I'll start everyone off with a quotation I was surprised I never worked into a piece since I use it often. It originates with Eleanor Roosevelt, but was popularized by Paul Wellstone - "Poltiics is not about money or power or influence, but is about improving people's lives". | 2010-03-10T15:30:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/10/quotations/#comment-3049 |
| Thanks, everyone, as always. We have a strong DFL team, but we have to start getting things done in a hurry if we're going to avoid slipping any further behind. Our legacy is not something we can simply rest on anymore - if Minnesota is going to continue being and being known as the best, we have to work hard to make it so. That's the real legacy we inherited, after all. Let's make it happen! | 2010-03-03T18:56:24+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/03/convention-wisdom-2/#comment-2997 |
| All fair statements, IMHO. There are a lot of other factors unique to University Ave as well, no matter what we do. I'd also like to point out that when looking at the Hiawatha Line there was an expensive ($80M, if I remember well) tunnel that pretty much had to be there, which is to say that the rest of it came in pretty much in line with Charlotte's experience. We can't be exact on any of this without a careful study. However, we do know that a lot of the expense of the Central Corridor is based on utility relocations which are not needed for a streetcar, and that experience suggests that a streetcar is about 1/3 the cost of LRT. I believe very strongly that not only can we build a better system on University Avenue, but we can build it for less than $400 million (and possibly a lot less, but not likely less than $200M). If I didn't think there were alternatives to the LRT plan, I probably wouldn't bother to say a thing. I think it's incumbent on those who complain to have an alternative, and you've seen mine. More to the point, the plan in place is so fatally flawed that it probably cannot be built, at least without a ton more money (as Sheldon points out). Peter Bell himself confessed on MPR that the odds of the plan being built are now "50-75%", which is to say far from "inevitable". I hope you can see the many reasons - based on personal needs, planning, transportation, and development - why a "Plan B" is a good idea. |
2010-03-02T20:37:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/26/steel-in-the-street/#comment-2983 |
| No prob, Bruce, there are a zillion details here. I don't have all the answers, and I'm not always presenting what I have in a way that helps make sense of them. It's a work in progress. It's MPR that thought they had an agreement, but then went ahead with a lawsuit: http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/02/04/mpr-lrtlawsuit/?refid=0&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MPR_NewsFeatures+%28News+%26+Features+from+Minnesota+Public+Radio%29 All I know is what's in the article on the suit. The "floating slab" is what's at stake here, and one was indeed implemented in Charlotte. I'd like to note that Streetcars make this a lot easier to implement because the lower weight means they rest on a slab to start with. Portland got their streetcar running in 3 years, design to build, from 1998-2001. By my watch, if you want a line running in 2014 we still have some extra time to deal with the issues unique to University Ave. I realize that's pretty glib, but these other cities are our competition after all. If the Vikings don't win the ring, we demand changes rather than fault the Saints for being good. I completely agree that poor transit is a huge problem. Having been close to this process off and on for 20 years (I served on two committees looking at the West End) I've come to fault our team for their poor performance. I think the examples of Portland, Tacoma, Charlotte, Atlanta - and many other cities - shows that we have a unique problem. Can we run an appropriate line along University that *improves* local service and preserves parking? Yes, we can. I have a drawing located here, poor as it is: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/06/08/pedestrian-friendly/ This is one set of trade-offs, your mileage may vary. But it fits if you do it right. The current plan doesn't accommodate either parking or pedestrians very well and cuts back on the 16 rather dramatically. That's a pretty big failure, IMHO, especially since there are so many alternatives on a 120' wide street. |
2010-03-02T19:55:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/01/ha-tien/#comment-2981 |
| Sorry to post this in two places, but the two discussions are ongoing. I just realized that not everyone understands the difference between LRT and a Streetcar. There has been a tremendous amount of confusion here, the two terms being used interchangeably at times. I believe that some of this confusion has been intention on the part of advocates and/or the Met Council. Here is the best summary I've seen yet of the distinction, prepared for Denver (in pdf format): Streetcar and Lightrail Characteristics The meaty table is on page 6, but I recommend the whole document. It shows the wide range of options that other cities consider when they compete with us for Federal money and decide how to fit a transit system into an urban landscape. | 2010-03-02T17:27:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/26/steel-in-the-street/#comment-2978 |
| I just realized that not everyone understands the difference between LRT and a Streetcar. There has been a tremendous amount of confusion here, the two terms being used interchangeably at times. I believe that some of this confusion has been intention on the part of advocates and/or the Met Council. Here is the best summary I've seen yet of the distinction, prepared for Denver (in pdf format): Streetcar and Lightrail Characteristics The meaty table is on page 6, but I recommend the whole document. It shows the wide range of options that other cities consider when they compete with us for Federal money and decide how to fit a transit system into an urban landscape. | 2010-03-02T17:06:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/01/ha-tien/#comment-2977 |
| Bruce: The choice we have in front of us should NOT be LRT versus a "no build". The reason I am scaling up my posting on this topic is that I sense that this project is beginning to face what I consider inevitable - that it would be stalled out for a while before it dies a slow death. That is not because we do not need transit, but because it was poorly conceived and designed. There is an alternative, which is the modern streetcar. Please see the previous post to understand how this has been implemented in other cities and why it is the correct choice for a rail system on University Avenue. I offer this as a "Plan B" when this project finally collapses of its own weight. There remains a somewhat trickier potential to use existing right-of-way in the BN, CP, or I-94 corridors for high speed mass transit of the LRT design. That could also work, but it would take longer to implement given how much time we have wasted over-engineering University. As for a "land that time forgot", that was never my intent. At Western, however, there is a definite sense that it is a different place than anywhere else on University - and in Saint Paul. The local businesses have several times asked for special decorations, public sculpture, etc to designate that area as some kind of "Little Saigon", but it has never materialized. Part of the issue is that there are several distinct "Asian" groups that do not agree to the name. But the designation as a place apart is not only very real but has been proposed many times by the businesses themselves as a marketing tool. |
2010-03-02T16:34:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/03/01/ha-tien/#comment-2976 |
| Thanks, everyone. I just want to get the word out. Having been on top of this for 20 years I still cannot believe that we've gotten where we are today, an EIS that is horribly inadequate and about to have to stand up to 3 full lawsuits in court. It makes me sick, too. Bob, I can't answer as to how many places run up against the CEI like we do because we don't hear all that discussion. Informally, I was told that it's pretty rare that the CEI really drives the design as much as it has here. What I can tell you is that our process has consistently been about chasing the money, looking at just what the Feds will fund and carefully designing everything around that process. When Portland put in their first streetcar in 2001, they got zip from the Feds because it wasn't supported by the FTA. They did it anyway because it was the right thing to do. Now, streetcars *are* supported by the FTA and Portland is expanding theirs. Many other cities are moving ahead on their lines, too. If we've learned one thing through this process, I believe it is this: Do not chase the money, solve the problems. The money will find a way if you have a solution that people are willing to get on board. |
2010-02-26T17:42:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/26/steel-in-the-street/#comment-2936 |
| Things may not be as different as we think, I suppose. We have an excellent relationship with Canada that includes more bi-lateral trade than any other two nations, and we once burned each others' capitols. So it's possible that it might have worked out pretty well in that sense. However, there would have been a constant wave of refugees (I won't call them "slaves") escaping that would be a constant headache. My guess is that some kind of conflict was inevitable even if we had gone the Czech-Slovakia route. |
2010-02-23T22:32:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/22/the-living-lincoln/#comment-2889 |
| Thanks, everyone. I did have a recent bad example, but I'd rather not get into it. Let's just say that there's a right way to do everything. :-) | 2010-02-17T17:48:57+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/17/walk-and-talk/#comment-2841 |
| Thanks, everyone. I don't know exactly what will prove the most useful for everyone. I do want to be sure we have something that will ultimately be good for readers, not just writers. I'm sure we don't have it perfect, so there may have to be some tweaking. What I'm sure is that we have useful information for writers who want to improve their craft. Your work will be read by a professional and you'll know where you stand! |
2010-02-15T21:27:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/15/authorscope-know-where-you-stand/#comment-2828 |
| Thanks! It's more than just a business opportunity for me, it's a chance to really give something back to the world. I hope that the standards we're introducing are improved on but are then taken up by people around the world. The most important thing for writers has to be readers, and readers need to be willing to take some chances if we're going to have space in their heads for new writers. Some way of saying, "Go ahead, it's worth giving some of your time and $$$ to this author" might just be the kick-start that a whole new world of publishing needs. Like so many things, the technology only makes innovation possible. It's how we use it that matters in the end. I hope that Authorscope can be part of that new world. |
2010-02-15T16:40:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/15/authorscope-know-where-you-stand/#comment-2824 |
| Tony, Dale: I think that stories of people succeeding, especially against long odds, are always going to be popular. That's only natural because people like sucess and the sucessful. I'm focusing on the stories about problems because I'm trying to tie this back to something that still bothers me. Remember that many business leaders, economists, and government officials continue to insist the obviously incorrect position that no one saw this Depression coming. They seem to think that this is a reasonable position, too, as if there is no way to predict when things are going to go bad. In a highly specialized world where people have blinders on (as noted by Adam Smith), how do we increase communication across the various specialties and classes? I do believe that the lack of a common culture, which is to say a shorthand where everyone understands each other easily, is a root problem for many of the difficulties we have today. I tend to take the more liberal view that common culture has to be inclusive and adaptable, which makes creating and keeping such a thing a lot more difficult. But I'm sure that it starts with people being able to communicate across any divisions that crop up, and that means they have skills to tell their stories properly - and people want to listen to them. I'm actually trying to make a high degree of specialization palatable ... it's a bit of a change, I realize! | 2010-02-13T16:51:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/12/storytelling/#comment-2818 |
| Good criticism. I hate it when a story gets lost in the details, and I'm afraid that could easily happen here. What I didn't get into is that the person with the problem could have easily solved it by turning his adult son over to be a ward of the state - the cuts in question would not have affected them nearly as badly. The net expense to the state would have been higher had they not taken personal responsibility for their own son and remained his legal guardian. A different program, left uncut, would have taken up the slack - at greater overall cost to all of us. Those are just details, however. What mystifies me is how the simple stories of people are lost in the statistics - numbers which are manipulatable and always open to interpretation. We're not a species that understands our world entirely through cold numbers. Janine, you're right that I need more specific examples. To me, it's not a matter of getting government to do this or that, it's a matter of getting to know the problem. Captn Tony, it's not a matter of whether government should solve everything or not, it's a matter of knowing just what the problem is so that we can decide, intelligently, how we can best solve it - which may or may not involve government. There are always stories of real people that slip through the cracks. Real social change comes when those stories are told and connections are made. If people want to get together and solve those problems outside of government, all the better - but they have to hear the stories first. |
2010-02-12T16:53:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/12/storytelling/#comment-2808 |
| e.lee: Yes, the Rosenthal one is particularly bad on this chapter. I like to use it just because it's on the web (and very handy) but ... this time it's Wu for me. I have the Shambala edition of Le Guin's translation right in front of me. I'll put it here, reformatted to take up a little less space: Everybody on earth knowing that beauty is beautiful makes ugliness. Everybody knowing that goodness is good makes wickedness. For being and nonbeing arise together; hard and easy compliment each other; long and short shape each other; high and low depend on each other; note and voice make music together; before and after follow each other. That's why the wise soul does without doing, teaches without talking. The things of this world exist, you can't refuse them. To bear and not to own; to and and not lay claim; to do the work and let it go: for just letting it go is what makes it stay. |
2010-02-10T18:56:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/10/smallness/#comment-2794 |
| Janine: Only if you also consider the lillies. :-) If you want to make a case for a big dollup of Taoism making its way into the teachings of Jesus, that is a a topic I've deliberately stayed away from because I'm always afraid I won't do it justice. But I did cover it in "Downriver", if obliquely (as always). I have another translation of the same chapter that I can add if someone wants, this one by Ursula K. Le Guin. She worked a lot harder on making it accessible to a Western audience. |
2010-02-10T17:37:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/10/smallness/#comment-2791 |
| Bruce: I missed your point in the sense that I forgot to respond to the part I agreed with and went straight to the apologetic part. You are absolutely, spot-on right. While this Depression compares very well to 1893, the big difference is the level of support that we have and the relative wealth of most of society coming into it. Nothing really compares to the "Great Depression" of 1929, which really was "The Big One" and deserves to be called "Great". We don't have a lot to whine about, at least not in historical terms. Where I get sensitive is that ... well, we seem to whine a lot. It's serious, but we're dealing with a lot of things far better than we ever did before. I just want us to take the serious part a lot more seriously. Perhaps being grateful for how good it is might not be a bad start. From that perspective, I might look like a whiner, too. Don't want that to be out there, for sure. |
2010-02-09T17:53:42+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/#comment-2778 |
| If you look at the map I linked to (it's a polar map, so it takes some getting used to) it looks like it's more or less random - probably many things make it get the kinks and bulges into it. It's when the Jet Stream comes right off of Alaska that it seems to change the most. I can't say why that would be, however. Maybe we'll get lucky and a meterologist will pop by. |
2010-02-08T18:06:38+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/08/jet-stream/#comment-2774 |
| A brief PS: It's pretty bad in Saint Paul today. Why not just take a day off and enjoy it, if you can? Excuses this good don't come along every day. | 2010-02-08T14:38:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/08/jet-stream/#comment-2771 |
| You're right about the name, Bruce. I just want people to take this seriously and stop screwing around. When we were attacked, a certain group of people made it clear that they felt the rules of normal civil discussion had to be suspended because of the seriousness of the situation. Dissent was not welcome. I don't want us to go that far, but certainly playing around with the President's nominations to key positions is not consistent with a state of emergency. Blocking everything that comes your way just because you can - without adding to the debate - doesn't help one bit. I think Obama has done a much better job of conveying the seriousness lately, so I'm mostly satisfied. But I still smell denial out there. I want to add my part to, as civilly as possible, tell people to cut it out. That's all. |
2010-02-08T00:32:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/#comment-2768 |
| Janine: Eh,you're probably right. It's just that I've been on this for 2 years now, and it gets frustrating. It's like pushing on a rope. I have to press my advantage, tho. Angie: Yes, I saw it. I never understood all the violent, over the top language in most blogs. Still, if you want to do that for me, this is what I'd prefer: Erik Defenestrates Media on Depression Denial! Has a nice medieval ring to it, no? :-) |
2010-02-05T18:52:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/#comment-2748 |
| Thanks, everyone. Especially Anna with the great link from MNspeak. :-) Dan, you're right that at some point cities (especially) will be re-engineered. I've gone on and on about the way we designed our "Downtown" regions for offices - something that probably won't be necessary in the future. So what will replace them? Saint Paul is better on residential, which ... well, it seems as though there's a lot more to it than that. Rather than plan the heck out of everything, I'm more concerned that we have the right elements in place to allow a free market to do its thang. That takes a little more thought. I'll think it over. |
2010-02-05T17:48:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/05/great-recession-great-denial/#comment-2745 |
| Luis: You can file what's called a "World Patent". There is some reason it's not desirable, but I can't remember what it is. 3M never went this route. It's based on agreements between a lot of nations. If you want to file a Euro patent, the big hurdle IMHO was writing the description in English, French AND German. They have to match! For one of my patents that I handled myself I was fortunate enough to have on the team a guy in Antwerp who did the French, and my German was checked by someone in in our Bavaria location. THEN, and only then, was it shipped to our multi-lingual lawyer in Brussels! If it wasn't with a big company, there's no way I could have gotten it together. There was a real lack of fun in the whole process. :-) I can imagine a person writing a patent on their own in the US, but you have to be fearless and dedicated. Compare this with how we do copyrights for songs, which is to say that you put a li'l (c) at the bottom of your score with the date and vióla! Granted, the two are not comparable, but when you think about how long the copyrights last compared with 20 years on a patent, it really starts to look like we have our priorities a bit .... well, at least strange. |
2010-02-04T17:34:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/03/patently-absurd/#comment-2715 |
| Molly: Thanks for the correction. I wasn't aware that they had incentive to reject patents. Perhaps I just have really high standards, but I've seen a few that I didn't think deserved to be issued. I feel better about things now. It's good to have an expert / insider in the field correcting me! :-) Anna: I can't imagine getting startup capital right now. If you could tell us some more about the status of Angels, et cetera, I'd appreciate it. I am going to be working with someone on a strategic plan for leveraging a good idea into some real money, so I do have a personal interest. All I can think right now is to play this as some kind of poker game. Ug. |
2010-02-04T15:53:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/03/patently-absurd/#comment-2709 |
| I don't know why no one has ever given the USPTO the resources it needs. It's been this way for a long time, as far as I know. It's one of those things that never makes the radar, for whatever reason. I can tell you that in the absence of careful review, I sometimes have the feeling that they approve just about everything that doesn't have obvious mistakes, with the understanding that if there is a conflict it'll be up to the lawyers to sort it out in court. So if anyone benefits from the current situation, it's lawyers. Go figger. |
2010-02-04T01:57:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/03/patently-absurd/#comment-2704 |
| Thanks, everyone. I agree with Molly that the best thing the Feds can do is properly fund the USPTO and work off the backlog. After that, some kind of office that helps people get over the hurdles would be just heavenly (but I'm not holding my breath). Annalise, you make an excellent point that this isn't as big a deal with "soft tech" like computers. We've given one area of research a big advantage over others with all these barriers to entry. It's something to think about. |
2010-02-03T18:20:57+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/03/patently-absurd/#comment-2700 |
| NOTE: This has been revised for inclusion in the Internet Writing Guide. Please follow this link: Impact Journalism Thank you! | 2010-02-02T00:21:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/02/impact-journalism/#comment-2689 |
| Thanks, everyone. We don't know more about him because he was kept out of the public eye in Tuskeegee Institute. He was brilliant, but also rather openly effeminate. At Tuskeegee he had nearly complete freedom, including an active gay lifestyle with a committed partner - but outside of that, he would have had problems (and possibly have been an embarrassment to the college and his race). He did get out more late in life, mostly at the urging of his admirer Henry Ford. The "chemurgy" movement was something he helped champion, and I'll write about that later on (when I think I know what the story is!). A truly great man who helped a lot of people. He was a true problem solver, a man of both great vision and good ears! :-) |
2010-02-01T20:36:44+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/02/01/george-washington-carver/#comment-2687 |
| Thanks, everyone. Anna and Jim, you're right. Long term isn't two daze. Dan: I hope that's all it was. I'd like to see him out there a bit more, not on a continuous campaign, but when he speaks things do calm down. That's the real reason I want more. I didn't talk about this right away because in politics taking a stand is one thing but the reaction is another. One thing that is very clear to me - the right has chilled bigtime. During the address, the live tweets I saw from righties were ... well, silly at best. They would criticize Obama for how he ordered breakfast. Afterwards? The focus on jobs has become a game-changer, I think. It's populist, but not in the "out for blood" way that the base is used to. The noise level has gone way, way down. That is, to my mind, THE GOAL for Democrats - to keep the noise level a lot lower. It's also what our nation needs, IMHO. Let's see if it can hold. |
2010-01-29T17:26:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/29/state-of-the-union-serious/#comment-2671 |
| As of now, they want "experts". Not Taoists. :-) | 2010-01-27T22:32:43+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/27/expert-opinion/#comment-2649 |
| Thanks, everyone. It seems to me that the standards of "objectivity" always wind up being the central issue. The old idea was that you line up two (usually exactly two) "experts" and let them battle it out. But the choice of "experts" is, inherently, the place where journalism inserts itself into the situation - whether it's honest about that or not. I guess I agree that this wasn't always the best way to do things, but in the old daze perhaps it was all that could be done. We don't have to worry about that anymore. People can, and do, find their own sources of information all the time. The problem is, as Scott Adams explained, that the stream of information coming at us is like a firehose aimed at a teacup. That brings it back to context. Ditching "objectivity" doesn't mean we should have no standards - it means we replace it with something better. It seems to me that "experts" are one of the first things to go. |
2010-01-27T18:20:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/27/expert-opinion/#comment-2647 |
| I didn't link to this piece, but I still think it's one of my best; http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/04/13/specialists/ To me, this highlights the central problem. We believe in a lot of things, including specialization and the role of "experts", without understanding what that does to our civil obligations. |
2010-01-26T01:41:38+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/25/starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-2632 |
| I should explain a little. This started as an argument with my kids who, along with many people of their generation, seem to think that the advance of technology is an unquestionable "good". It struck me as strange given that we're working our way through old Twilight Zone episodes where there are many stories about how technology can be dangerous. I had a feeling that they, and their generation, didn't get the idea that there could be a problem here. Ultimately, yes, the consumption of resources way beyond anything sustainable is the real issue. What's weird about the belief in tech is that it seems to be based on the idea that we are post-manufacturing - which is to say that it's not about consuming resources anymore but pure brain power. I totally agree that this is the real issue at hand. But there's a real fundamental belief at the core of why we find it easy to ignore this problem - and never really talk about it - that I find even more troubling. I was going to start another long series today on this topic, but this came out instead. Call it a rant if you want, but I'm trying to get at a root problem before I work forward. Things seemed to have changed about the time Reagen became president and we haven't looked back. Consumption became good because it justified a popular belief in how economies operate. I would like to think that this belief has been shown to at the very least be limited. I'm just trying to raise my kids to be properly critical of conventional wisdom. I had this dark, ooky feeling that there's something deep at the core of how we got where we are that makes it really hard to talk about the reality of our situation - which is that we are living in a cloudy unsustainable bubble that hasn't yet popped. |
2010-01-25T18:40:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/25/starts-with-an-excuse/#comment-2630 |
| Sorry, Janine, but this one has been around for a while and it's gonna be around a while yet. I'm laying the foundation for some arguments that I know I'll be making when Minnesota's own Governor race heats up. :-) Jim, I still stand by what I said about anger about the lack of reality - and even noted it here. But this was closer than most people portray it, and Dems aren't going to do themselves any good with the usual routine that goes with a loss like this. But there are things we can learn - if we want to go forward. Let's be "progressives" and move ahead, learning from our mistakes. |
2010-01-22T16:55:37+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/22/different-roles/#comment-2610 |
| I think what it comes down to is that we had to stabilize the system long enough to buy us some time. That's what Keynsianism does, ultimately - buy you enough time to make the inevitable Restructuring less painful. It is not, however, a permanent solution. Right now it is being treated as if it is one, however. We've had negative economic growth in the economy as a whole since 2001 - once you subtract out the Federal deficits that have been with us for a decade. That's the time we successfully bought, but we have been squandering it. I'm afraid that we can't buy much more time. Call what's going on "socialism" or anything you want, but it's hard to call it "sustainable" at the very least. I think that the bailout was inevitable, but it had to be seen as a temporary solution. Long term? Make it into a kind of insurance program, to pay it back, and figure out what made the economy fail in the first place. Anything less ignores the reality of this stituation, and I'm arguing that's exactly what we are doing. I'm also arguing that while people may not understand the details of what needs to be done, they sure seem to understand that we're ignoring reality. If the "leaders" don't get a handle on things populism will throw its support behind any number of potential solutions that sound good but aren't really any more sensible than what we're trying. That's when it gets a lot worse - and even more angry. |
2010-01-20T21:13:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/20/and-statistics/#comment-2592 |
| What I think it comes down to is that the leadership we have thinks they can manage their way out of the situation. All they seem to want to do is to make the numbers look good, like any middle-range bureaucrat would do - and since numbers don't lie, the situation must be good. Right? The problem comes when everyone starts to believe their own BS. That's not just a problem in Washingtoon, that's a problem just about everywhere. Thing is that just enough people seem to realize that no one really understands what is really going on and they're angry about it. Why shouldn't they be? If you want to lead, the first thing you have to have is a firm grasp on reality. Without a good map of where you are you can't go anywhere. |
2010-01-20T16:42:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/20/and-statistics/#comment-2588 |
| I don't mean to dwell on the irresponsible comments made by one person. At the very least, I was heartened by the fact that they were roundly criticized by many, many people. However, I want people to understand why my daughter at times sees Christianity as a loathsome religion that attracts the very worst elements of indecency and hatred. I have taken it as my mission to show her what is in the Bible and how people who say these awful things clearly have not read the book - or at least never taken it to heart. This always winds up being a small act of rebellion on my part, teaching my daughter such subversive ideas. The truth, it seems, has taken on a very subversive quality. I think that on Martin Luther King Day we should make this clear. This is a day for a higher calling and service. Truth, Justice, and Decency should never be this subversive. |
2010-01-18T18:22:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/18/dr-king/#comment-2574 |
| Dan, that sounds like a good recommendation. It's really easy to see how we've lost our way when we get a chance to contrast our culture with another one. Maybe that's why so many people are fearful of other cultures! | 2010-01-18T16:26:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/15/popular-front/#comment-2571 |
| I'm with you, Dan. I still say that banking should be boring - every time someone comes up with an exciting new idea in banking, saving, or investing there's probably something that was overlooked in the process. It sure seems to work out that way. I feel old just for suggesting that the way out is some kind of insurance system, after all. Maybe I am old. |
2010-01-15T17:22:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/15/popular-front/#comment-2562 |
| Jim, the Dodd Bill is being written by a series of bi-partisan sub-committees that Dodd is overseeing (still love that word, "oversee"!). We do not have any solid details yet. The complex financial ovisight (ha!) system proposed by Obama hasn't really gotten anywhere yet. I agree that a real threat of serious regulation of the old-fashioned "nothing will happen" style is not a bad idea right now. The problem is that banks clearly think that they can head off something like that by getting their buddies to whine about "socialism" again. The politics has to change to the point where they believe that there is a real credible threat, and I think the best way to do that is to get way out in front of the politics and get seriously populist. I hope that happens - and I hope that a sense of pragmatism helps keep it all real. Yes, I know that's a lot to ask, believe me! |
2010-01-15T16:42:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/15/popular-front/#comment-2560 |
| I'm just terribly saddened by all of this. It always manages to get worse in Haiti. I wish people in the US understood what it means to face adversity with dignity and get done what needs to get done. | 2010-01-14T17:12:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/13/haiti/#comment-2545 |
| You got me. I might be pushing it a bit, but the more I think about this topic the more I'm convinced that there are some deep roots that deserve exploration. I was also thinking about the big "Chariots of the God" and Bermuda Triangle fascination in the 70s, but I chose to leave that out. I call it "art", others might want to call it "popular culture". Hey, the advise each other. And all that other stuff like ... well, eventually politics, too. If I didn't push it in this humble li'l blog, where would things get pushed? :-) |
2010-01-12T03:27:09+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/11/act-of-destruction/#comment-2537 |
| Yes, you're both right. I'm being vague because I don't know if I'm thinking this through very well, but it seems to me that we're a long way off from a good counter to the Popular Doom - or any other reaction to feelings of powerlessness. So why not just deal with it? | 2010-01-11T18:24:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/11/act-of-destruction/#comment-2533 |
| I don't know why this isn't taught more widely. This isn't the only cause of our strange spelling - some of it came naturally, over time. But this is the biggest problem English faced. | 2010-01-08T22:01:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/08/the-great-vowel-shift/#comment-2522 |
| Dan: I see what you mean about health care, but it didn't quite get done in the decade, did it? :-) I'm also still not sure what we have, and I do tend to take Howard Dean's side on this. Since it's not done and we don't know what the final product will look like, I'm not going to be too hopeful. I still have to respond to Mitch's excellent post on that thread, which made me think. Good perspective, hate to have him think I ignored it. Jim: I've often said that no one knows what's going on and that we believe our own BS far too often. That's a related phenom, I think, but a bit different - it includes a touch of arrogance, don't you think? Perhaps that's just one of the many ways to respond to feeling totally out of control, kind of like the slow kid at school who compensates by being the bully. I'm hoping someone will be able to offer something a bit more complicated or ... I dunno, less child-like? The idea that most of what's going on politically, socially, and culturally is just a lashing out based on powerlessness seems far to simple, but it also seems to work far too well for my comfort. I'm thinking about it, too, Janine, but I'd like your help! :-) |
2010-01-06T20:24:15+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/06/happier-time/#comment-2507 |
| Thanks. I am looking for someone to challenge me on this because it's a bit of a leap - but if this is a major force in our politics today we have a big problem. It's hard to call yourself a Democracy when people are primarily reacting to a feeling of powerlessness. I think I should have also linked to this bit on how we've become very suspicious of organizing in general: Retelling the Reality I think that, if what I'm getting at really is an important force, we have a LOT of work to do. If my more conservative brothers and sisters are worried about this not being the America they grew up in, I want them to know that I agree on a very base level, allbeit for very different reasons, so we have something to talk about. | 2010-01-06T15:34:35+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/06/happier-time/#comment-2502 |
| Janine, that's another old post: Anything is Possible (let me know when whipping out a previous post to explain nearly anything gets really annoying!) | 2010-01-04T19:52:35+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/04/popular-doom/#comment-2493 |
| Dan, you're on to something. I wasn't sure what to say about it, but we have a real tendency towards this "adventist" thinking. When it's come around in waves like this, big things either happen or are in the process of happening (I'm not sure which yet). I like the idea of helplessness being the root of all this, too - it could explain all of my theories at the same time! I should have linked back to this post: Learned Helplessness Whatever it is, I'd really like to see actual "history" on the History Channel. I'm sick of all the doooooom. | 2010-01-04T18:12:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/04/popular-doom/#comment-2488 |
| Happy New Year! I don't have much in the way of plans, except that I'm trying to get more work as a Chemical Engineer / Tech Writer. I do think that'll be my greatest strength in the long run, even though it's hard to break into. What is everyone else going to try to do differently, resolutions or not? How is your own life restructuring? |
2010-01-01T18:26:27+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2010/01/01/happy-new-year/#comment-2478 |
| I'm afraid I don't understand. How did I feel in 2005? About the same as today - that neither the left nor the right had anything relevant to say about the important choices facing Americans. I had some faith that the generational change that embodied the Obama campaign might produce something more relevant, but so far it hasn't. So it's all very much the same, despite the obvious fact that the world has changed rather dramatically. | 2009-12-31T00:50:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/30/a-lost-decade/#comment-2472 |
| Dan, I'm always more interested in disagreements than anything else! It's more fun that way. | 2009-12-30T21:26:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/30/a-lost-decade/#comment-2470 |
| There may be a lot of "near-self-antonyms" after all. But "terrify" and "terrier" are about the same (just kidding - "terrier" comes from "terra" or "earth dog"!). Thanks! |
2009-12-28T23:34:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/28/gung-ho/#comment-2450 |
| I didn't get into the origin of "fast" to mean "go without food", but it appears to be the same as "fixed" - "strong" or "firm". It's also very old, appearing to predate written records. "Oversee" remains my favorite of this type of word, however, because it makes for good puns at the expense of Congress (itself the antonym of "progress", if you read it right). |
2009-12-28T16:33:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/28/gung-ho/#comment-2448 |
| Thanks, everyone. Merry Christmas! Maybe I'll be looking for my own Christmas miracle soon if I don't find some work. But it's good to know I have friends here. I do appreciate it more than I can say! Thank you all, again, and many times more! |
2009-12-25T22:24:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/25/its-a-wonderful-life/#comment-2436 |
| Maybe it all stops when we say it stops, and we get to say when that is? Sorry, just had to get all Taoist there .... :-) | 2009-12-23T18:22:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/23/in-motion/#comment-2422 |
| I did read Keillor's piece, and I guess I agree with him (but I'd say it a lot nicer than that!). Christmas is for Christians, as far as I'm concerned. I don't see why it has to be any other way. The Amish go off and have their own way of doing things without bothering anyone, so why not other religions? Here's a link to what the big lug had to say: http://www.salon.com/opinion/keillor/2009/12/15/cambridge/index.html |
2009-12-21T18:53:27+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/21/winter-solstice/#comment-2412 |
| Wow - that's a few pointed comments! I didn't think this would be so hot. You know, I do pull my punches at times - guilty as charged. I'm tying to get a new perspective out into the world, and I always believe that it's going to help get it repeated if I'm not pointing fingers in any one direction. That may be wrong. Besides, if you knew me in real life you'd all know I'm a LOT more blunt about things like this. And that I get myself into trouble by saying offensive things nearly constantly. As a writer, I do moderate myself rather dramatically. I do not believe that the mainstream media is deliberately trying to make us stupid, but I do think that (like me!) they would rather not offend anyone because their advertisers would be upset. Fox News is not, by most accounts, making money for Rupert Murdoch so I can't say that their big experiment with slanted coverage has been a success, either - and that's not lost on the industry. I do think that someone has to provide more context if we're going to make sense of the world. That, to me, is a matter of understanding how things are connected - which will require new perspectives and a LOT of explanation of context. The noise that has to be turned down from 11 to get that word out is a serious problem. If I never hear the word "mashup" again - or never see another of these exercises in ripping life out of context - I will be happy. I'll even fault the otherwise brilliant "Daily Show" for being a major force driving this exercise, too. Let's just all cut it out and demand more from ourselves, our politicos, and our media. I'll be more blunt now that I've described the problem and you guys seem to be on it, OK? |
2009-12-18T18:29:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/18/context/#comment-2402 |
| Thanks, everyone. Yes, Jim, I got someone else to tell my story. Paul is doing a series on the need for engineering jobs over at MinnEcon (MPR) and I just had to put my few pennies in. Who knows, perhaps it will lead to employment? :-) Meanwhile, how 'bout them Vikings? :-) |
2009-12-16T15:58:47+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/16/upon-the-turf-at-metrodome/#comment-2387 |
| Thanks, T. I stopped counting a long time ago, too. As far as the Oh-fish-eye-al records are, there's no difference between me having a good month, a bad month, or a totally awful no-work-for-you month. Those of us who make our own way are kind of invisible. |
2009-12-15T23:49:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/14/cookies-for-santa/#comment-2382 |
| Dale: I totally agree with you, and I usually use U6 as the more accurate number. We should also point out that the gap between U6 and the headline U3 is usually only 4-5%, but it's at 7.5% now - showing that not only are we leaving many people out of the picture, we're leaving far more than usual because of the nature of this Depression. Furthermore, the numbers we're dealing with show this to be a similar Depression to the one from 1893-1902. That took about 9 years to absorb all the workers, and ours is likely to take just as long unless we do something about it. I wrote about some of this here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/11/23/deliverance/ http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/first-job/ This is likely to wind up as a "lost decade" if we don't get serious about job creation. I still think that the basic overhead per employee is the most obvious (and cheapest) place to start looking at the problem. |
2009-12-14T20:10:31+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/14/cookies-for-santa/#comment-2378 |
| The numbers have nearly always been cooked - certainly, GDP growth never looked at the Federal Deficit, and the unemployment numbers have gradually become stupider with each administration. But these have always been relatively small effects. As we go into serious meltdown, what were once small tweaks to make things look good are now very big problems. We've long had a problem with people disappearing, in an official sense, it's just getting worse. I couldn't work this piece into the Christmas Cookies theme: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/06/17/desaparecidos/ |
2009-12-14T14:42:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/14/cookies-for-santa/#comment-2376 |
| Magnus: We are, I think, still a kind of Calvinist nation at heart. I don't understand it either. I'm more of a card player, myself. I happen to think it is luck and skill, too. Perhaps there are more of us than I thought? |
2009-12-11T18:12:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/11/new-deal/#comment-2361 |
| Funny stuff. Today is a bit better - colder, but less wind. Maybe we can enjoy it now? | 2009-12-10T16:28:29+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/09/first-big-snow/#comment-2344 |
| I have to agree, I'm not having a lot of fun here today, either. Oh well, it's the price of living here in Minnesota! Wait, what's the payoff for this? :-) |
2009-12-09T20:43:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/09/first-big-snow/#comment-2340 |
| Jim, I hear you. I've had a lot of conversations with people about Iraq where I conclude with "no one has any idea what they are doing". It doesn't go down well, but I think it's true. The same can be said for nearly everything, IMHO. I think the other comments said it best - we just don't care. Our military can do a lot, but it can't do everything. I think it's terribly unfair to even ask them, too, especially with their own lives in harm's way. They, and we, need to demand that the rest of our government do its job before we ask such sacrifices. |
2009-12-08T15:49:00+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/07/afghanistan/#comment-2335 |
| Thanks, everyone. I thought I'd let this one ramble a bit because the lack of clarity in the situation is the real issue. To people like me, and most of you, how we feel about this issue is an extrapolation from our own personal experience and nothing more. I don't have anything that lets me evaluate this situation in any kind of real way that matters. What do people in Afghanistan want? I'll probably never know. Unless I think our policy makers have a clue, they'll probably not be too successful in creating a stable government, either. That's about all I can know about the situation. What to do about it? Another problem, entirely. |
2009-12-07T18:41:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/07/afghanistan/#comment-2330 |
| yearzero: Thank you. You are absolutely right when you say that the metaphors have all played out. Playing with language seems even more obvious when languages other than English are bearing down on us like never before, but instead we've all hidden like cowards. Our mythologies should be getting richer, but instead they are shrinking. It is pathetic. Ron: It's what I call "Waiting for Steinbeck". The theory is that a Depression will take down the New York establishment that gleefully divorced itself from reality (seeking a hedonistic single life) and begin again with serious writers who find a cheap way to ply their craft themselves. I outline it here: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/paperback/ One way to answer Carr's piece, excerpted above, is to say that while a new generation is about to rise to the challenge, it isn't likely to be in New York. When I talk about a culture "retracing its steps", in Carr's case we could take it literally - he's from Minnesota. Times like this call for decentralization and real empowerment. The result might be the next Steinbeck, if we play it right. |
2009-12-05T23:35:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/04/illusions/#comment-2322 |
| John, that's why I write - to change as many minds as possible. I don't begrudge people going for something new when the writers weren't doing a good job. Twilight Zone, for example, is 50 years old - quality like that hasn't been seen since. Well, maybe on "Star Trek". :-) Before the writers gave up or lost control entirely, we had nothing but formulaic sit-coms and movies that have numbers in the title. It's been a long time since quality writing dominated the entertainment world, IMHO. I don't think we know just what people will do when they see it again. Same goes for journalism as well. I'm talking about the lack of reality in ALL media, across the board, whether it's supposed to be true or not. Our concepts of "real" and not are so mixed up that the various kinds of media are pretty well mixed, too. It's a bad mess. |
2009-12-04T19:54:15+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/04/illusions/#comment-2318 |
| Thank you everyone. I hope that this doesn't leave you depressed, unless you have the boreal ability to enjoy depression. I was working on a seasonally chilly tone but I'm not sure if I got it right or not. It's a writing skill thing, my own attempt at showing, not telling. Are words still powerful? Rather than insist that there is sstill a place for writers, I hope I made the case on its own merits. Yes, Jim, people will still get crap if they buy crap. But what if there's also a market for quality? |
2009-12-04T15:32:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/04/illusions/#comment-2316 |
| John, the context of all of this is to encourage quality writing in general, so given a general interest in increasing the skills of people, does it seem more reasonable? The talk I heard was done by the people who are pioneers in the field, and professionals, so for them I don't think your concerns are an issue. I'd like everyone to see this as a tool for empowerment, which as I've said before depends on quality - citizens need to have their act together if they are going to effectively speak truth to power. That's what it's all about. |
2009-12-02T21:58:17+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/02/impact-journalism/#comment-2304 |
| Jim, you're right in the sense that I don't think that everyone doing this all the time is a good idea. There's a balance here. This is a useful tool, which is to say that journalists shouldn't always look like useful tools. Does that make sense? We're all just figuring this out as we go. |
2009-12-02T18:53:56+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/12/02/impact-journalism/#comment-2301 |
| I'm going to give a lot of thought to how I tie all this together. Thank you all for your suggestions, it really does help a lot. None of this would be at all interesting or valuable without you! | 2009-11-30T22:11:29+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/30/blank-slate/#comment-2292 |
| Jim: You might be right. I'm open to suggestions. Janine: Yes, I am assembling these into one collection that can serve as a guide. I'm serious about promoting quality in writing, and I think that a useful "how-to" has yet to be written. I hope to be the one to put it together first. Your help is very important to making it useful! |
2009-11-30T16:23:24+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/30/blank-slate/#comment-2288 |
| I don't know if people really ignore outstate, but they sure do ignore poverty on average. There are very different needs up in Bemidji than we have in Saint Paul, which really only figures. But there are always people who need a little help, everywhere you look. As they grow in number, perhaps there might even be enough to make a real movement - assuming we can get past the isolation that defines so much of it. | 2009-11-27T22:52:04+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/27/outstate/#comment-2276 |
| Rascal: I left this piece out because I thought it was straying a bit from my point. Perhaps you might have thought that it strengthened an appreciation of the holiday. I'll leave it here as a footnote: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/07/21/truth-of-the-cottonwoods/ |
2009-11-25T15:21:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/25/thanksgiving-2/#comment-2267 |
| Janine: We'll get real. One way or another, this has to sink in. It's been a solid year since I called for a new WPA, and I hear other "mainstream" politicians and "exerts" finally joining in that. The unemployment among youth alone has to be chilling. It is true that the Free Market appears to be good for the rest of us but not for the rich - how did we allow that to happen? Anders: Thank you. We will do our part. I keep thinking of the line from Casablanca: Rick: Sam, if it's December 1941 in Casablanca, what time is it in New York? Sam: Uh, my watch stopped. Rick: I'll be they're asleep in New York. I'll bet they're asleep all over America. (pounds table with fist) Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she had to walk into mine! This time, "she" isn't war, she's something far less romantic. "She" is Reality, the need to work together to solve our problems for the good of everyone. We may not like it, but we'll do our part. Eventually. |
2009-11-23T15:42:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/23/deliverance/#comment-2257 |
| Walter: I meant month! I do this often. I'm going to correct it with a strikeout so people can see how I screwed up. Dan: Yes, that's very true. It's the disconnect with reality that is so bizarre. I honestly think that if we dealt with this problem it wouldn't be so bad - we do have a kind of "free will" to use the Puritan analogy too much. But we just won't get real about it. |
2009-11-23T14:50:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/23/deliverance/#comment-2252 |
| Anna, you're right. I have a "topic drift" problem here. The solution is to separate the two a little bit, or at least make note of position / issue advocacy (which is what I usually do!) and organizing. I guess I felt a little sheepish talking about advocacy without doing something, even if it's what most of this blog winds up being. Mea culpa! |
2009-11-21T22:43:42+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/20/convincing/#comment-2235 |
| The best thing to do with "venting" is to ignore it. This is the second best, which is to try to show people a better way. Call me an idealist if you want, but people can learn how to convince each other and accomplish great things - if they get over themselves, that is. | 2009-11-20T15:27:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/20/convincing/#comment-2232 |
| Thank you everyone. I thought I would have offended someone with this post, but I think offended people don't usually leave comments. The bottom line, for me, is what Jim said - we're just human. Get over it. I really do not like Palin's politics one bit, but she deserved better. The big storm that Newsweek was writing about is only starting, but it was completely preventable. If you don't think that she deserved better just for being human, then consider how little of this noise we'd have if they had seen to make sure that the Veepstakes wasn't a net loser for her and her family. This is poor politics, but it starts with a lack of basic decency. |
2009-11-18T14:47:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/18/sarah-palin/#comment-2193 |
| Can't we practice artful politics? It's worth noting that the St Cloud Chamber of Commerce did not endorse Pawlenty in 2006 (or was it 2002?) because of his opposition to Northstar. A very conservative group took a stand in favor of expanding transit their way because they knew they needed it. The line was built. Washington County, which would be served by Red Rock, also wants to be part of the transit world, but they are being ignored - I say the first party to stand up for them gets the edge in an otherwise very competitive part of the Metro. How's that for politics? |
2009-11-16T15:16:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/16/northstar/#comment-2183 |
| Annalise: Northstar and Red Rock are trains that operate on existing rail lines, so they can only run a few hours a day. That's why they are called "Commuter Rail". I listed them as scalable experiments because in many cases they can be used to put in something cheap that proves the basic idea, and then expanded on their own track to run all day. This happens a lot. As it stands now, it would roughly replace the 94 bus that has about 9k people per day commute only - the 5800 seems pretty conservative. There is plenty of room in the BN corridor to expand the Red Rock to an all-day service, but I like the idea of proving its worth first. If we can justify the stations, etc with just the commuter traffic, the expansion becomes easy. There's also usually a lot of political will formed by grassroots movements once this happens, so it' gets around the politics nicely. Why is the Central Corridor number so large? Right now, about 25k people per day ride the 16 and 50 on University. The idea is to replace roughly 1/3 of the 16, all of the 50, and all of the 94 express with LRT. That's how they get the numbers up - by reducing overall service, especially on the express commuter bus. What I am advocating is a system that is based on understanding the needs of people, not any particular line here or there. The Red Rock works in that framework, so I use it as an example. I would never say, "This line over another" until we know where the real needs are - and where people are advocating for real improvements. I mentioned Snelling because we need to understand the needs much better than we do. |
2009-11-16T14:49:35+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/16/northstar/#comment-2181 |
| Thanks, everyone. I expect to get a lot of incoming fire over this one. But it's the truth. I didn't bother to get too far into the Red Rock because the reports are online, but follow the links. The Parsons Group did an excellent job, but they were out-of-town experts that were too easy to dismiss. Very sad. But they have a history of getting projects done on time and under budget. | 2009-11-16T13:52:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/16/northstar/#comment-2179 |
| I think it would be a bit much to have a national hissy fit over whether or not it's appropriate to have, say, a Jimi Hendrick $10 bill. It is true that we love diversions like this which are otherwise meaningless. But ... I can't help but think that we have so many people that deserve to be immortalized in our wallets at least as much as Jackson, for example. George Washington Carver, anyone? | 2009-11-13T15:15:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/13/currency/#comment-2150 |
| I really thought this would be a fun topic (for a change) and you guys are getting all practical on me. I'm disappointed, really. Harumph! True story I didn't wind up using in this piece: When I was a kid, I was near Tallulah (sp?) Gorge in Georgia at a small store. There was a sign up that read, "We do not accept $50 Bills. Please respect our Southern Heritage." Oh-Kaaaay ... |
2009-11-13T14:08:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/13/currency/#comment-2147 |
| Jim: This sounds like something that might get me some work. Perhaps it's worth doing - I was surprised to find how little there is on style guides for citizen journalists - or how much difference of opinion there is on we writing. Annalise: I'll get into that later, I think. The idea is to put the reader into the moment so that they can better make up their own mind. Read the post on Unity and you'll see how a writer's job is one of editing the world, so it does require more explanation. |
2009-11-12T00:20:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/11/quality/#comment-2135 |
| Bruce: The word "wrong" is the big issue here. There is a time and a place for nearly everything. In the context of journalism, subject-verb-object in short, punchy sentences is easier to digest quickly. You give a context where a different construction is more accurate, and I accept that. I've written a few patents and used that construction heavily myself (though it hurts my brain after a while). I wish I had taken on the whole subject differently, but I'll let my errors stand with these comments attached for posterity. This is one of these things where perspective makes all the difference, so setting that up appropriately would make my effort more accurate without stepping all over your situation. You are right, but the topic requires better explanation than I or anyone else usually gives the subject. For the rest of you, Bruce probably knows more about Eastern European languages (Slavic plus German) than anyone else I've ever met. I hope you can see why I'm not going to argue with him about language and usage in general. :-) He's always got a good point to make on the subject. |
2009-11-11T18:37:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/11/quality/#comment-2121 |
| Bruce: What you're telling me is that my writing coach is wrong. Well ... that isn't setting well with me, but I'm going to take some time and dig into it because you tend to know language and useage. But we both agree that that what I presented is incorrect. Passives, as you describe them, are useful, but harder to scan quickly - what I should have emphasized is that people tend to scan articles and yank out highlights, which is why short, active sentences work well. That is, the last sentence doesn't work. Whatever. This was my first pass at this - if anyone wants me to go further with it I see a big edit. I must explain WHY certain forms are better than others, and ideally check the labels properly. OK? :-) |
2009-11-11T17:33:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/11/quality/#comment-2119 |
| Dan, Cristy: Thanks for bringing this back to the connection between raising the next generation and the state of the economy. Tying up those loose ends is a lot of what this article is about. When we talk about a "culture", we have to look at all the things that make us who we are - and why we have the attitudes we do. The first real work we have is a huge part of how we view our "professional" lives. As someone who has said many times that we are at a kind of cultural dead-end where we either retrace our steps or die, I think the lack of adequate opportunity for the tremendous energy we have right now is a serious problem. It's also rarely talked about, which makes it worse. On an individual basis, we all know in our guts how important this is. We all want our kids to have the right kind of attitude and to know that hard work has its rewards. On a cultural level, that may be either untrue or just some kind of fairytale from daze gone by. That kind of disconnect is scary as all Hell, IMHO. I really think that the generational changes we are seeing in this nation and this culture are not being adequately discussed, at least not in the right frames right now. The biggest story of our lives might be passing in front of us untold. That would mean we're too passive to retrace our steps and content to just let our culture die. I really hope I'm wrong, but in my guts I doubt it. |
2009-11-10T16:53:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/09/first-job/#comment-2111 |
| I don't know why a big deal hasn't been made of this, either. I heard about it first from a friend, who almost certainly heard about it from some news outlet, so it has been out there. But it hasn't been widely discussed. | 2009-11-09T18:28:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/09/first-job/#comment-2095 |
| Paul: One of FDR's famous lines was, after meeting people who were lobbying him, "You've convinced me. Now go out and put pressure on me." It seems a little cowardly if you read it wrong, but FDR knew what it meant to be an electoral leader. I wrote about this before, after seeing it in Obama: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/late-night-politics/ |
2009-11-07T00:09:56+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/06/retelling-the-reality/#comment-2069 |
| It very much occurred to me, Tamara. I've met many people who support it, but most were not immediately affected. Most of them support the idea of transit without knowing any of the details of this project, too. I see this as a situation where ideas are considered more important than people and a very good example of the "let experts handle it" thinking that is terribly afraid of organizing to make things happen on the ground. The "experts" always have their own agenda. The people who are affected need their own representation. They invariably have to create that on their own, but may lack some of the skills to make it happen. That's what organizing is all about. Why is everyone so terribly afraid of that? |
2009-11-06T14:12:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/06/retelling-the-reality/#comment-2063 |
| Bruce, excellent point. The challenge is demographic, yes, but the inability to deal with it comes from being autocrats who are grossly out of touch. That is the real issue to the people in the streets. That's why I hate getting too far away from the central point (which is that there's apparently a peak in the population) in less than 800 words - something has to be left out. |
2009-11-05T20:39:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/04/demographic-destiny/#comment-2036 |
| That's a reasonable suspicion, but I have to assure you that you can trust the Economist. It may be a free market mag, but it's very reasonable. I wish I had saved their free-market analysis as to why minimum wage laws are actually quite useful, for example. The Economist is far from a propaganda rag. In fact, I reccommend that everyone read it - and if you disagree with something they say, it's a good idea to know exactly why. | 2009-11-05T18:27:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/04/demographic-destiny/#comment-2032 |
| You're right, this is a big deal, and I only dealt with the immediate aspects of this - the turmoil we see now as big hunks of the world change-over on a generational basis. There's only so much room in a blog entry! But consider for a moment sustainable agriculture, which does indeed produce less per unit of land than the strip-mining methods in the short run. One argument against pushing sustainable ag was that the world was outstripping the food supply. Now that we know where we top out, we can start thinking about how we can manage that population sustainably and stop arguing the issue. Consider also the prospect of including in sustainable crop rotations some grasses that are more or less fallow but produce material that can be used for fuels. That's also possibly part of the equation if you don't worry about starving people out. There's a lot more, including a potentially stable world with less disparity between people in terms of material possessions and all. But for all the places this analysis can go, each one is big enough to deserve its own essay. Wow. |
2009-11-04T15:42:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/04/demographic-destiny/#comment-2029 |
| Dan: Yes, I guess I did! That topic is how it seems to me that politics has become so much more about ideas rather than people, which is to say that people care more about intellectual concepts, procedures, and ideas about "fairness" or "values" than they do about the real wealth and health of citizens. I use IRV as a good example of this, but the "idea" of the Central Corridor versus the realities of Urban Removal is another good example. People support an idea, not a reality. It's a strange disconnect that I've written tangentially about to give grounding to the main idea. Alas, it's still hard to write about well. People don't understand what I mean because this is a problem that is far too ingrained. The reason why it might take bad words is that we really have to go to the gut level on this one. I dunno. I'm not ready to do it right yet because I really don't understand how our mainstream thinks anymore. It's just totally past me why people think "It sure seemed like a good idea at the time" is any kind of excuse. |
2009-11-02T17:17:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/11/02/all-politics-is-local/#comment-2021 |
| I've thought about other media, even have a few podcasts scattered through Barataria. Never done video, tho. That might be a good idea for this one. No idea how to get started with that, however. | 2009-10-30T19:43:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/30/helical-waves/#comment-2005 |
| Thanks everyone! Jim, I do agree with you there. I'm going my best to make sure that they get the classics in literature and study history and geography and a few other things that aren't coming to mind right away. I really do think that when they are young that the hot tip is to expand their minds and build intellectual confidence - it seems to make the lessons of history and literature more accessible, too. |
2009-10-28T14:52:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/28/skills/#comment-1994 |
| Annlise, I guess that is what I'm saying. It seems pretty sick to me, too. But the more guy who pulled the gag knew that the more outrageous he made it, the more people would want to believe it. It's a voyeuristic thrill. Rush doesn't have that much to offer people, but they still want to believe him. Dunno why. |
2009-10-26T22:51:31+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/26/lighter-than-air/#comment-1957 |
| If there was ever a time to try, it' s now. I've spoken to a lot of elected officials and planners, ad everyone knows that this is a terrible plan. What we need is one small child to say, "The Emperor is naked - and he's not very attractive, either!". I'm willing to be that child. The people who are giving money to the Collaborative cannot allow themselves to be dragged down by a series of lawsuits and charges of racism or classism. There will be more suits filed, and this will get a lot uglier. I'm offering a way out now so that I can build some momentum behind it. It's our only hope. Besides, I grew up in Miami, so I know what it looks like when an entire culture becomes delusional. I won't tolerate that behavior in Saint Paul. |
2009-10-23T21:04:24+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/23/reboot/#comment-1932 |
| The forces that have backed this project, as it is, are amazing. But we do have a lot of people who know better that have their own clout on board now, for the first time. I don't think they will let themselves be used as pawns in this game, either. They will need an alternative, and it's up to people like me to provide it. The time is right for a real breakthrough! | 2009-10-23T13:48:43+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/23/reboot/#comment-1909 |
| Over the long haul, things should even out, yes. But over the long haul, we're all dead - so that doesn't do us much good. The idea of PPP is that we can tell what direction things are likely to go, and if anything the US Dollar is still very strong by that measure. It still has some way to fall. Does that mean it will? Not right away, for sure, and maybe not even in my lifetime. But there are other pressures that are likely to make it happen. I'm just trying to introduce the concept. I think that the Big Mac Index, while awfully simple and silly, makes the point pretty well. |
2009-10-19T17:24:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/19/big-mac-index/#comment-1860 |
| No, the Big Mac Index is far from complete, but it's a way of teaching the concept. I'm going to get into the details of this in coming weeks. | 2009-10-19T12:44:21+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/19/big-mac-index/#comment-1853 |
| I've never heard of a "mens underwear index", but I suppose anything that is about the same everywhere will do. It's a matter of what you can get for your money or, as the UBS method suggested, time at work. | 2009-10-19T02:22:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/19/big-mac-index/#comment-1848 |
| I haven't heard that in a long time, Jim. I think "topsy turvy" just sounds good - there are some phrases that are just nonsense. | 2009-10-16T19:41:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/16/just-sayin/#comment-1797 |
| I've often wondered about that one, too. There are also some perfectly good words that are only used by newspaper reporters, such as "feckless" - it's a perfectly useful word, but since it's so rare I have to wonder if it's useful. | 2009-10-16T13:28:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/16/just-sayin/#comment-1788 |
| Thanks so much, everyone. I've also found a few blogs through newsbobber that I never would have otherwise. It's a great service. My ranking? It's OK, at best. But let's see if it rises. :-) |
2009-10-14T19:11:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/14/newsbobber/#comment-1744 |
| Some ghost that can use modern technology, eh? Seriously, I do think that this concept can well be traced to Bolivar because it became a central part of the independence movement. la Raza is distinct from anything else, and that crystallized the rebellion. As for haunting, let's ask Chavez ... :-) | 2009-10-13T17:28:16+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/12/dia-de-la-raza/#comment-1731 |
| Hello, everyone. I accidentally deleted the comments on this post, so I had to rebuild them from what was recorded on another site. If there's something attributed to you that you don't like, please tell me. Thanks! | 2009-10-11T18:01:37+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1689 |
| Thanks, everyone. Perhaps I should assemble this into a book. The booklist I'm getting together (yes, I am!) could serve as bibliography. I do need to do more research, however. | 2009-10-10T17:48:40+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1688 |
| You should put this in book form. Lay it all out in an order that makes sense. I love what you're saying on the blog, but I get the feeling that it's in the order that it comes to you. Great stuff! | 2009-10-10T17:44:28+00:00 | Just Bob | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1687 |
| Absolutely amazing - great blog. | 2009-10-10T05:41:29+00:00 | Erin | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1686 |
| Another excellent way to look at networks. Thanks! | 2009-10-10T01:30:19+00:00 | Jim Sauder | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1685 |
| Magnus - that's very eloquent, if a bit simple. Thank you. I wrote the same thing about my dog, adopted as a stray. He wanted to keep moving until he had a home, and was very restless until he understood he was home with me. A strong sense of place gives us a sense of belonging, or at the very least curiosity. I can accept that as a given, yes. | 2009-10-09T18:39:21+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1684 |
| Wherever you go, there you are. If you aren't somewhere, you need to keep moving. Otherwise not being somewhere makes you nobody.That is how I explain this concept to people. It is simply human nature. We like to belong. |
2009-10-09T18:16:09+00:00 | Magnus Erickson | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1683 |
| Yes, you have to be somewhere or you keep moving. It's the same in any good design, really. You have to be connected to the place, real or internet, before you hang around long enough to connect with people. I don't think this is mysterious at all, BTW. If you think I'm stating the obvious, all I can ask is, " How often doyou see the obvious ignored?" | 2009-10-09T17:53:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1682 |
| I translate 'a sense of place' as 'you have to feel like you are somewhere'. All the cold glass and steel of downtown makes me want to keep moving. | 2009-10-09T17:18:28+00:00 | Janine Gorwitz | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/09/a-sense-of-place/#comment-1681 |
| Yes, and thank you. It was a brief appearance on my li'l neighborhood and why it is. Nothing special, but it's fun to be on teevee. | 2009-10-08T14:13:45+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/07/young-at-heart/#comment-1639 |
| Jan - I've been thinking about this. Alternative energy is the most obvious, but I'm willing to let the market sort it out. My biggest concern is that the structures we have in place prevent the market from working efficiently to do it on its own. That may sound rather Libertarian, but I don't care. If we have some kind of regulation for a real social need that's one thing, but having a lot of structures in place just because we've always done it that way is dangerous, IMHO. | 2009-10-08T03:27:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/07/young-at-heart/#comment-1637 |
| Jim - You're right, this is the Millenials hitting the job market. Their parents, the Boomers, haven't retired yet, either. I do think that there are some effects from immigration, but I didn't nail them down yet. Dan - we do have to fill the capacity we have, which now that we're in a Depression is around 50% utilization (a shade less, actually). That will be first, yes, but I think we'll see that come on sooner rather than later. |
2009-10-07T22:32:40+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/07/young-at-heart/#comment-1634 |
| Bob, that's a luxury that might be partially true, but it's going to seem a lot more expensive as time goes on. It may be a hard habit to break, but I'll bet we find we have to. | 2009-10-06T13:54:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/05/forex-is-foretold/#comment-1619 |
| Jan, I may do just that. I think we're getting to the point where very big changes are starting to happen very quickly, which is why I wanted to talk about ForEx ahead of what's coming (start from the general, move to the specific, you know the drill by now!). | 2009-10-05T19:18:53+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/05/forex-is-foretold/#comment-1617 |
| The USD is definitely taking on a lot more risk than it ever had before. I've long been in favor of devaluation, since it is probably the only thing that will halt our 50 year long slide in manufacturing. But the problem is that it's likely to pop quickly and with a lot of mess. That's not just bad for us, it's bad for the whole world. | 2009-10-05T13:12:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/05/forex-is-foretold/#comment-1615 |
| I find it hard to believe that this is still seen as a radical way of doing things, but my dealings with planners tells me it certainly is. My guess is that this is one of those issues where excessive specialization has ruined a field that is supposedly related to human ecology. "A Pattern Language" is very inter-discipline, and thus easy to marginalized. As far as these schools "hating cities", well, I see a lot of evidence that they are generally rather clueless about sociology, history, and common sense - but that doesn't mean they hate civilized life as we know it. It's still possible, of course, but I always have to go with an utter lack of imagination and laziness (relying on the way things have always been) before I go to "hate". |
2009-10-04T16:27:30+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/02/a-pattern-language/#comment-1600 |
| I will think about the Barataria book list - but the book club maaaay be a bit more than I'm willing to tackle. :-) Thanks for the suggestions, everyone. | 2009-10-03T21:25:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/02/a-pattern-language/#comment-1598 |
| Dan: I think I should share some more. You're right, "A Pattern Language" goes from the very specific 'do this!' to more general things, but that fits the fact that it covers planning and building. It's a wild book in some ways. Janine: Good point, there was a lot of stuff in the late 70s that got shelved somewhere in the Reagen years. It's too bad because I think that there was a lot of stuff conservatives have come to realize supports a "small is good" thinking that they often support. Jim: A list of books is a good idea. Yes, I've worked with a lot of codes over the years, and the old ones are a mess. The newest ones, such as on the River Corridor, are written with a lot of influence of "A Pattern Language", so I know people somewhere are reading this book. It's not really a book to sit down and read, but look for it at the library - I think St Paul Central Library has a copy. |
2009-10-02T14:32:58+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/10/02/a-pattern-language/#comment-1596 |
| It was on Sci-Fri, that's how I learned about it. You're revealing my secrets. :-) But I thought it fit in with what I'm talking about pretty well, so I went with it. | 2009-09-30T18:18:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/30/social-networks/#comment-1586 |
| Thanks! It is amazing to think how utterly dead animation was in the 1970s - and how major studios have come to depend on it as a major part of their revenue 30 years on. One generation of trying new things from odd places made something great in a hurry. | 2009-09-29T21:12:16+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/28/anime/#comment-1576 |
| Yes, but a patent requires you to "teach the art", not the science. It's all good. :-) | 2009-09-28T13:55:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/28/anime/#comment-1574 |
| Thank you, and borrow all you want. I've done Strategic Planning for a number of small organizations, and what I learned was that the key is to have people understand the importance of these distinctions, not just throw words at then. Ming ke ming, feichang ming. :-) I'd love to make a living off of this, but sadly the field has too many charlatans who are far more aggressive than I am. As long as people want BS, it's hard to make a living telling the truth! Getting back to the war analogy, the next level of this discussion is the old saying about war that "Amateurs talk tactics while experts talk logistics." :-) |
2009-09-27T15:44:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/25/keep-fighting/#comment-1571 |
| skydaddy, you're right - it's not like war. It's what Bob said - it's the way anything complicated gets done. War is just the easiest metaphor, and I now wish I hadn't used it. It is about winning "Hearts and Minds" - that's what I meant by claiming territory. The right can, theoretically, fight as a constant "minority" and conduct nothing but a guerilla war, but the left has to take a stand. Their different objectives require different strategies and, especially, tactics. The left HAS to engage, whereas the right can fight as a tiny minority if they have to (though they are doing a good job of engaging at least some people). But I agree that the left fighting as it is now will fail. I see Obama leading his own people by example as he engages the population, which is what caused me to say this as openly as I did. I want us to follow our leader because, damnitall, he's right. We have to win people over, and that's very different from what Janine called an "eilte" throwing bombs at the other side. This is what I like about writing a blog - people catch me being ineloquent or innacurate. It's all good. :-) |
2009-09-25T18:40:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/25/keep-fighting/#comment-1567 |
| Thanks. I didn't want to do this post, and I've been working around it for years. It's ... well, "pedantic" is the nice word. But the message has to come through in plain English - we can't use the same tactics to advance different strategies. I think the President has made this clear, and I think it's time we follow his lead. | 2009-09-25T03:32:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/25/keep-fighting/#comment-1562 |
| I definitely see people on both sides exploiting what they call "politics" for their own very small careers. It happens on both teevee and in the blog world, and it's very sad. Most of what I see on CNN is not politics. It is shabby attempts at entertainment done by people who are terribly not funny. The blogs that peddle this nonsense are, indeed, nowhere near as well read as they'd like you to think no matter how much they link to each other - either to praise or damn. It's all show, no substance. The substance was there on Letterman. People need to realize that they can, indeed, connect to politics and take it over form the elitist "in crowd" that likes to think they run it now. Obama got around them very well. No matter what people think about him or his policies, I hope we can disagree based on what's real and not the relentless chatter - on both sides. |
2009-09-23T03:19:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/23/late-night-politics/#comment-1554 |
| There are many things you can do in Excel that you really can't do or can't do well in anything else. It's handy because it's so flexible. I'd like to see the Excel equivalent for small devices and what it can do. | 2009-09-22T14:04:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/21/excellent/#comment-1548 |
| I've found a few minor differences in Open Office Calc that I've had to work around, but nothing serious. It's still the crescent wrench of our time! | 2009-09-21T13:32:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/21/excellent/#comment-1546 |
| John: the reason I went into generational distinctions is that I see this as a strong function of age. I'm 43, and people older than me are pretty much Boomers. I know a lot of people who watched their 401k go from "Retire Early" to "Die at Work". That doesn't even count the despair of those with a family to care for who have to learn a new career at 50 or more. Does this describe everyone? Oh, no, not close. But I see a lot of Learned Hopelessness out there, and it bothers me a lot more than activism (going on what Jim said). Dan, I appreciate a "B" once in a while to keep me honest. :-) |
2009-09-18T12:21:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/18/learned-helplessness/#comment-1538 |
| Yes, Jan, I'm exploring what I was talking about earlier. It's a continuation of the themes I was exploring in "Systemic Connections": http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/08/31/jefferson-versus-hamilton/ The way out, of course, it to either modify either our reliance on specialization or our concept of individualism. That is why I think the critical political debate of tomorrow will be different than today. In a sense, it’s the debate of 200 years ago. |
2009-09-18T02:36:45+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/18/learned-helplessness/#comment-1533 |
| I've had the pleasure of trying to teach foreigners how to play/watch American Football. It's not easy. In fact, it may be a good definition of the tortures of Hell. But I did it. George Will said that football exemplifies the worst aspects of our culture - "Violence punctuated by committee meetings." I've always liked that. But I like football. No, I don't see why we have to subsidize stadia, but aside from that it's a lot of fun and it brings people together. |
2009-09-16T12:58:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/16/football/#comment-1526 |
| What the Strib has now is an option to have the assembled paper sent to you every day by e-mail for $2 a week - I guess there's a discount if you subscribe to the paper copy. I couldn't find any stats on how many people take them up on this. The proposal that's floating around is to lock down the whole free site that we know, outside of a few teasers possibly. Unique content, which is to say local news or insightful commentary, is always the trick. They won't just be filling the "news hole" any longer, so the mindset has to be totally different. I dunno just what's planned, however, but we have one solid proposal now on the table for how they'll bill - what that means to the paper's content is up in the air. |
2009-09-11T16:11:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/11/digital-paperboy/#comment-1503 |
| Thanks everyone. Let's spread the word, especially among us white people - we can't let minorities bear the burden of calling this BS all the time. Dan, it does have to be the loneliest job in the world. I hope Obama can keep it from wearing him down. |
2009-09-07T15:25:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/07/jim-crowing/#comment-1486 |
| Blice works as a plural, but Hice? Dunno about that. Dan, the Amish are against electricity for reasons that pass logic. A wind turbine running the saws, etc, would make way more sense than the gasoline engines they use, but they don't. One of those things. |
2009-09-06T02:20:56+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/28/awfully-artificial/#comment-1475 |
| Jim, you're right. Best to keep it simple. Industrial age jobs have always been a bit at odd with our vies of freedom. Leads us right into a good Labor Day discussion! |
2009-09-06T02:19:16+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/31/jefferson-versus-hamilton/#comment-1474 |
| Dan, they did have a lot of latitude. It worked really well. | 2009-09-06T02:17:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/09/04/labor-day/#comment-1473 |
| Jim: You are right - anything we do will have a strong consumer component. I do think, however, we can tweak it a little towards the information management end. For example, let's say we had pools organized by region (perhaps Saint Paul and suburbs). There's an incentive to improve the overall health of that region any way you can. Preventative care, which is generally based on getting a message out, can even be emphasized more through additional incentives. The idea is that if the system is set up to help people manage information that they are bombarded with, it probably has a shot at preventing the need for care in the first place. But I have no doubt that it will be a consumer model at the core of it, oh yeah. I just want to make sure we don't miss other "connections". :-) |
2009-08-26T22:18:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/26/sixteen-tons/#comment-1446 |
| Dan, there are other ways of financing, but I've never really thunk that one out. I can tell you this - when the Amish need money, such as when a young couple needs a farm, they have a way of raising big wads of bills among them and keeping track of it all that borders on magic. They have some way that I don't know about. But I've never thought it through, to be honest. Hope someone comes along with some new ideas on that front, 'cuz it's a good one. |
2009-08-25T00:58:39+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/24/platform/#comment-1440 |
| I give! I didn't explain myself very well. Try the post Specialists. The "optimal" structure when we're fat & happy is a series of connections we start to rely on. Some of the new connections we need for the economy of tomorrow aren't made because they don't look necessary. But they are - or will be. I'm trying to look at the barriers to making new connections in the economy and how we can lift those to get us a lot closer to the ideal of a free market, as discussed in the post Marketism. Does that explain it? I guess I did gloss over too much getting to today's post. Sorry 'bout that. | 2009-08-24T19:06:38+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/24/platform/#comment-1436 |
| Welcome, Ron! You have a good point - I should have explained more. Retraining is all about getting people to make new connections to the world, starting from their own skills and working outward. The Barriers to Entry problem is something that comes from understanding that the way we connect to our economy has changed - the system we have grew up when people in the industrialized North connected to the economy primarily through the company they worked for ("I owe my soul to the company store"), which has changed - requiring new connections to be made. The Apollo of Energy would almost certainly require a number of technologies to come together in new ways, such as turbine powered hybrid cars (I should explain that more later). Creating an environment that encourages that is the key to making this work. Infrastructure? Hopelessly old fashioned, I admit. But if we look at high speed rail nationwide, I can promise new links will form. You're right, a lot of this doesn't obviously follow. But the main point is to create an environment where people can form the connections necessary to make the world that's coming possible now that the old connections are breaking down. I didn't push it because it seemed a bit tenuous, but I should build more on my old work. |
2009-08-24T17:52:35+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/24/platform/#comment-1434 |
| Sorry, I was being imprecise. The total for manufacturing in the same period was 1,661B$, which is to say that wages are about 27% of the total cost. The next problem is what do they include in "wages"? Since the CES is done by survey, I think this is take-home pay - not bennies or any other overhead. This chart - http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.t06.htm - says that it's $32.06 per hour, and that the wages average 69.7% of the total cost including taxes and bennies. What I'm trying to get at is this: what is the real cost for an American worker, and what can be done to reduce the overhead? I'm trying to find if there is a potential for real savings there by shifting costs for benefits to the Feds, providing additional incentives to create jobs. There may be other ways of reducing that overhead, too. What I'm seeing is that if we could cut the overhead in half, we'd save about 15% of worker costs or about 5.7% of the cost of manufacturing overall. It's not huge, but it's interesting to note that we lost about 6% of all jobs in the last year - a very similar number. |
2009-08-21T20:11:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/19/a-matter-of-priority/#comment-1427 |
| Thanks, especially for adding Knowitall. That also gets a few hits, and is in the top list right now. I hope you all can see where the series "Systemic Connections" came from. I let my topics drift a bit from time to time, but I do like to bring them back together into one larger thought. It's hard to be specific at that level, though, so give me a bit. | 2009-08-21T17:19:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/21/baratariana/#comment-1425 |
| Perpich was a real hero of mine - the guy really cared and really thought about things. Shaming them into it? Well, I'm all for it - but if people come back to you with really good points about policy and other changes that need to be made to make it happen, we probably need to give them at least a good listen. Lobbyists? Sure, that's a lot of it. But if Democrats don't stand for what I'm talking about here, the party isn't going to be in power for too long. I hope that's obvious (but it doesn't seem to be). |
2009-08-19T15:09:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/19/a-matter-of-priority/#comment-1411 |
| Dan, don't you think I've cheesed off enough people as it is? :-) Seriously, you're very right, I'm hinting at a deep problem in democratic politics - as we know it - which is to say a problem especially in the Democratic Party. There's a deep split that I've been contemplating ever since so much power was gained in November (there's an old post back there on it). I do not like to criticize without offering solutions, so rather than say what I think is wrong with some people and their attitudes I'm working on what I think is the way out of the woods. Now, if you knew me in person, you'd get the whole story peppered with swear words, but that's another deal, right? :-) I think the people who would be most offended by what I have to say already are, at least based on some strange mail and twitter conversations I've had. They already get that I'm on another side of some kind. Thing is, I'm not going into battle until I know what "my side" is. We'll see. |
2009-08-17T18:50:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/17/systemic-connections-conclusion/#comment-1402 |
| Thanks so much. I don't know why so few people are willing to ask the hard questions about how our world is organized - it sure seems to me that in turbulent times the people who have at least some idea what's going on are the ones that will thrive. I don't talk about the internet because far, far too much has been written about the internet as a "thing". Once I've talked about this sort of organizational stuff, a lot of the potential value of the 'net is obvious and the rest we can talk about more intelligently. I read today at bbc.co.uk that 40% of the tweets on twitter were labeled "babble" of the "I just had a sandwich" variety. It's barking, not talking. We can talk about the potential of the internet to connect people all we want, but if enormity of it all scares them into barking back most of the time, what does it matter? We can't be so enamored of this new thang that we don't take the time to understand how it might be useful. |
2009-08-17T14:30:50+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/17/systemic-connections-conclusion/#comment-1400 |
| Sean: We are indeed way past overload most of the time. As Scott Adams of "Dilbert" once said, the flow of information is like a firehose aimed a teacup. You're right - that's new, and a big change. I'll try to wrap up what I think about all this in the conclusion of this on Monday. |
2009-08-14T18:32:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/07/systemic-connections/#comment-1395 |
| Follow the links ... follow the links .. :-) When I first started blogging, hyperlinks in text weren't standard. We used hyperlink footnotes instead, which was really cumbersome. Everything I write is building on what I've written before and what other people have written, so I think that the links are essential. I use them to give detail and context when I'm taking what I said before to a different place. I write about writing because I think it's nothing less than the art of making connections. I've been asked many times, "What is Barataria actually about?" and that made me think it over. This is a blog about connections, and when I write about writing I'm going into details regarding the main way connections are made and reinforced. As always, thanks for reading! Without readers, there's no point to writing. My goal isn't to cram a bunch of stuff into people's heads, it's to establish a connection between us. Each new idea and perspective has to come back stamped with the personality of the reader for me to know that it's worked. |
2009-08-14T18:30:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/12/systemic-connections-economy/#comment-1394 |
| Thanks. I'll wrap it up on Monday. It's a bit too dense of a topic for a lot of specifics in the space I have (these are a bit too long as it is) so consider this series of 5 the statement of how I look at things - the perspective of the "strong half-step back". I'll give you specifics in the coming days and weeks that flesh out what I'm talking about. I had to lay out this perspective first so that I could take off and explore it. Barataria isn't a destination, it's a journey. It's not a blog, it's a connection. :-) |
2009-08-14T18:22:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/14/systemic-connections-politics/#comment-1393 |
| A rare footnote, mostly to beat Mitch to the punch. I've been talking about this for 10 years, but there is finally some evidence that it's happening. I had to be right eventually, yes? | 2009-08-14T00:40:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/14/systemic-connections-politics/#comment-1388 |
| The bigger point will be more obvious, but it's stated pretty blankly in the first piece in this series (and it is a series now!). The internet does change things like all communications technologies do, but probably not in the way that people think. Always, follow the links! I give "Connections" by James Burke full credit. I'm attempting to take his basic principles to a broader level here. |
2009-08-12T12:50:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/10/systemic-connections-technology/#comment-1379 |
| The two different "markets", jobs and investment, might at first glance seem to work differently, but up close they do not. I find this fascinating. I think there's a pretty basic human need in here somewhere. I guess I could have been more specific with some GM examples I was playing with. This was a vast area, and I'm trying to sum up what I've been saying for two years or more into one framework. |
2009-08-12T12:48:30+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/12/systemic-connections-economy/#comment-1378 |
| OK, I did some of them. Well, what I was a pretty slack job of estimating the number of articles per month (I was NOT going to count all the articles at the Strib!) and applied the formula that I gave above. Sadly, I can't get an appropriate use of significant figures out of MS Excel, so this looks like these are exact number. They aren't. But here is my guess as to how many individual people actually see any of these outlets in a month: StarTribune 44234 PioneerPlanet 16182 CityPages 15588 Powerline 12698 MinnPost 10974 St. Cloud Times 6266 Grand Forks Herald 6777 Duluth News-Tribune 6293 Rochester Post-Bulletin 6025 Minnesota Independent 5254 TC Daily Planet 4171 Mankato Free Press 4047 Barataria 3207 Bemidji Pioneer 1846 Politics in Minnesota 2026 Hindsight (MN 2020) 1241 Minnesota Dem Exposed 774 Dump Bachman 979 This is only a guess, but I do think it's safe to say that less than 1k people likely see MDE. More than 5k read MNIndy and about 11k see MinnPost. |
2009-08-08T12:31:40+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1367 |
| Brian: Thanks so much. I can't tell you how gratifying it is to see someone as sharp as you reading regularly! Jan: To get all James Burke on you, historically communications advances do increase connection and that sparks all kinds of information. Perhaps this will all look like a small adjustment in the really long run! Dan: I'll get more specific. I was thinking of making this into one of my small series, like the "Urban Core" or "Generations" runs - I haven't done one in a while. I'll get way more specific there if I do this, so consider this the opening Thesis. Also, Barataria is just whatever I'm thinking about. I hope you can see that this is about a year's worth of ponderin' crystallizing into something that makes sense of it all. I've been interested in the forces of change, the role of specialization and the maintenance of institutions for while now, so this is just an attempt to create a framework for understanding them all. I wanted your input before I went too much further, tho. Thanks for it! |
2009-08-07T14:30:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/07/systemic-connections/#comment-1364 |
| Thanks - I'm not sure about the history, but I've heard a few things. Incidentally, we could get even more into these site numbers than they probably deserve and really get at how many people are affected by a site. If you have, say, 14k unique visits in a month and you post 14 entries, on average, it's reasonable that you had at least 14k/14 = 1,000 people who visited. If each person read exactly once and left, that's the number of people it takes. Call this ReaderMin. The maximum is, of course, 14k people each visiting once and then boggeying off. Call this ReaderMax. The geometric mean between the two is the excel formula exp((ln(14000)+ln(1000)/2)), which comes out at about 3500 people. That's how many people I think see Barataria in a month. Keep in mind that this includes all the people that stray in who are looking for info on Barataria, Louisiana. It also includes the searches for Daniel Burnham of "Make no small plans" that get something semi-relevant (more than you might think). But I think it's about right. If we got an article count per month for all these sites, we could estimate the number of people they touch that way. It's a lot of work, tho. |
2009-08-07T14:19:56+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1363 |
| Thanks, Dan - readership was up a bit. :-) I don't know why we went with an all at-large school board, but at the time (the 60s?) we had an at-large city council. It may have just been how things were done at the time the Independent School District was created, stripping the power away from the Mayor. |
2009-08-07T02:11:53+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1355 |
| An excellent point, as usual, Bruce. Just for giggles I looked up the stats on HuffPo to compare to the other Big Dawgs. It's about 1/3 the traffic of the NY Times, but about the same as the Washington Post. That's impressive. Perhaps the real issue that I missed is that we aren't focusing on local/state politics as much as national. Then again, I think the measure of Volume * Relevance is a score where HuffPo does indeed do very well. I'll think about it some more, and thanks for making me do that! |
2009-08-06T16:55:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1351 |
| I don't think people will be mad at me, but if they are it's not my fault. I think that low readership is a poorly kept secret among the bloggers already. Any backlash, of course, might be a chance to spike readership for Barataria so it's not worth worrying about. It's not like anyone is making any money at this. | 2009-08-05T14:12:20+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/08/05/unread-influence/#comment-1348 |
| Yes, the spaces inbetween people are filled by something called "culture" that defines all of us together in some way. The ritual of "having a beer" with someone you disagree with sez you're either making peace or at least agreeing to disagree civilly. It's a pretty deeply held value - one that is essential for folks in a diverse society to get along with each other. It comes down to this thing called "civilization" at some point, since that's the sum total of the rituals and values that allow us to live close together. | 2009-07-31T13:38:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/31/beer/#comment-1334 |
| I used the 32 hour workweek as an off-the-wall idea that might actually be a good idea - but I agree it's not in the cards. There are so many things that could possibly change, and they all interact with each other. If we did have more small retailers and fewer brand names, as Starbuck's is apparently moving towards (!) there are a zillion implications - including the possibility of a lot more work in wholesaling. That sounds a bit wacky, but it's possible. I still think that more manufacturing has to be in the cards. Maybe not a lot more, but if the dollar comes out of all this weaker, and I think it has to, we have to make more of our own stuff. Government growing doesn't please me one bit, but I think you're right - it's a done deal. |
2009-07-17T21:42:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/15/jobs/#comment-1300 |
| I'm sad that there were no comments on this. High speed rail transportation is my fave thing to promote right now because building it would provide jobs and operating it would save us a lot of dough (as shown in this earlier post): http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/08/17/the-investment-express/ There are trains that go up to 500 kph (300 mph) in this world which could move cargo and passengers cheaper and faster than just about anything we have going. It seems to me to be a real obvious thang - until you look at the cost of installing it. But when we're throwing trillion$ at investment houses, well, I know where we can get a way better bang/buck. |
2009-07-16T21:56:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/13/moving/#comment-1297 |
| Well, Dan, you caught me. I don't talk about exactly what's involved in restructuring because there are so many things that feed into it. Consider this from a previous post: In a report from the Dallas Fed, we can see that while consumption ran about 62% of the economy from 1980 to 1996, that number crept up to 65% by 1999 and then rocketed to 70% by 2003. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2009/01/16/keynes-to-success/ If we consume less, which is to say put more money into durable goods like houses or save/invest it, we'll have a very different economy. A lot of the service economy will go away, for one thing. What replaces it? The people who make durable goods or find good investments around the world. There are other things that can happen to. Shifting health care from an employer cost to something the government pays is a big restructuring. We might go to 32 hour weeks to spread the work around, too. It's easy to imagine that we'll just have different jobs in a changed economy, doing different things like making more stuff or doing more research. But there's even more to it than that. Anything that makes us more efficient - defined by whatever new economic situation we're in now - is part of the puzzle. Energy efficiency is pretty obviously a part of that, but there are many things that are not obvious at all. I'm slow to speculate because I don't have the crystal ball. I'm glad health care and energy on the table because they seem a bit obvious. But everyone changing jobs also looks likely to happen and we're not talking about that at all. Changing to what? Hell, I don't even know yet - no one does. I'd like to think we all could get together and talk it out and at least have a clue. I sure can't do it by m'self. |
2009-07-16T21:52:26+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/15/jobs/#comment-1296 |
| I've been pretty negligent about the comments on my posts. Sorry about that - too much going on. I'm very concerned that the information needed to make the restructuring happen is being privatized, with people having to pay to get it. This means that social classes are hardening, with much less chance for movement. Seems like a big problem in a nation that's always prided itself on movement between classes. Informational interviews are just plain hard to get. Even a year ago, you could pick up the phone and have a decent chance of meeting someone to get an overview of where they are. Not any more. I have a sense that managers are weary because when I do get a return, it's been handed off to their assistant. I think it's only reasonable that once everyone starts to network it becomes a lot less effective, so it's hardly surprising. |
2009-07-15T14:40:43+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/07/15/jobs/#comment-1293 |
| Bob: Yes, there's a bigger problem than what I wrote about. Gender issues are always difficult. Bruce: Yes, it's a clumsy construction, but it's the one that I could come up with quickly which illustrates the problem. Language and logic are often miles apart, but usually that's not a huge problem. When it starts to affect clarity, we do have a problem. I think you got me in this case! :-) |
2009-06-01T13:54:31+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/06/01/pronouns/#comment-1166 |
| They had a good case, but they didn't make it. I believe Legislative leaders need to get their message out directly to the people to get the backing they need - in isolation, it's this clause of the Constitution versus that one. Bleh. Mechanics as artisans is a very deep subject, and it sounds very cool! |
2009-05-20T01:47:47+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/05/20/unallotted/#comment-1136 |
| Well, Susie, one alternative to the problem I've stated is to more or less punt and say, "That's it, this isn't making me happy, I'm done with it." The problem I see is that I'm not sure we have enough space for everyone to do that, should they make that choice. But yes, we have to make room for our intuition, regardless of what world we live in. |
2009-05-13T14:44:37+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/05/13/knowitall/#comment-1119 |
| Yes, as if life wasn't twisted enough, I had to add to the silliness by doing a weeklong serial story on Danger Bay! Think of it as a Soap Opera without the commercials. Or actors. Or ... well, without a lot of things. But it has Boomer's great drawings - a kind of South Park for grownups! See it at: http://boomerjack.wordpress.com/ Danger Bay - come for the bay, stay for the danger! |
2009-05-12T20:28:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/05/11/punful/#comment-1099 |
| My fave is Russia banning pork imports - even though pork has nothing to do with the problem. Huh? | 2009-04-29T15:15:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/29/the-craven/#comment-1048 |
| I'm not one for the "end of time" theories. It seems to me that big institutions, like empires, exist for a reason - and fall slowly. One thing I left out is the general feeling that the mysterious John who wrote the book of his Revelation was probably referring to Nero as the Antichrist - Caesar Nero in Greek reduces to 666, and Nero had the authority referred to. The burning of Rome probably seemed like the start of an apocalypse - but it wasn't. I'm fascinated by what it took to put it back together again and prove the visions wrong. Also, "The Lives of the Caesars" by Suetonius was well known to the Founding Fathers of the USofA. Washington, in particular, made reference to it. There's little doubt that when crafting a Republic headed by a strong executive he skimmed through this book for guidance; after all, there was no other model! |
2009-04-21T02:10:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/20/spqr/#comment-1011 |
| I'd like to go back to a theme I picked up in the bit on Trust - the one about my friends in the Amish world. Connections beyond what we can handle, or about 150 people, require us to have faith more in ideas than people. Individuals take time to know, but what someone "stands for" or "does" or any other face they turn to the world as a shorthand is easier. It's an abstraction of a person, not a real person. A lot of what we're seeing lately is that these ideas (and corresponding tribal identities they form) that are supposed to represent people are inadequate, but we act as if they are all that there is. For most of the people we meet, it really is all we have. To have a real plan of action and stay really focused, we have to have more than ideas. We have to have a deep sense of trust and faith in the people we're fighting alongside. That's totally broken down, IMHO. We can't keep our eyes on the prize because it's become an abstraction of an abstraction, a vague identity and not a lot more. We like to think our ideas are smart, but they lead us to be very dumb. But what do you want from a Taoist? |
2009-04-17T18:02:22+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/17/eyes-on-the-prize/#comment-1008 |
| Bruce, I completely agree on a personal level. I've been working on the craft of storytelling as my own personal search for a deep talent that is mine. I think everyone needs something like this that fires their imagination and gets the blood flowing. In the end, it's a balance. I proposed in my book Downriver to remain "a strong half-step back" - close enough to the task to get your hands dirty and be in the moment, but far enough back to have precious perspective. Whatever that thing is, however, we still have to live. In this great big thing called an economy we have to make our living. I have many skills that I am sure could benefit someone, especially those who need a difficult or technical story told in plain English so that it touches a wider world. Over the whole of the economy, society, or even "civilization", many people will have to find something else that they can do which allows them to survive - and perhaps thrive. In examining the barriers to entry which prevent them from making this transition easily, from one skill to another, it occurred to me that the basic concept of such a flexibility is not accepted nor is it expected. That may be not only the real immediate problem, but the way we found ourselves in the predicament in the first place. It's a theory at this point. I'm certainly willing to do what it takes to make a good living, so it's not really about me. But as I've examined before, the rules of the game require my skills to match up with both the economy and how everyone else matches up with the economy - the rules. That's a different deal all around. BTW, thanks for the Friedman mention - I knew I read an in-depth examination of that particular aspect of this problem, but damned if I could remember where! |
2009-04-13T13:59:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/13/specialists/#comment-968 |
| Janine, thanks for your support over all this time. I think you're the only person that followed me from Author's Den. People seem to get weary from questioning everything in their lives, something I've come to accept that over the years. If I'm wired up to be a questioning machine (aka, "idiot") then maybe I can dish out good questions three a week - a rate that hopefully isn't too grating. If that's my place in this world, I'm good with it. Now, why is that my place? Why is such a thing needed? Oh ... nevermind. :-) |
2009-04-10T20:26:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/10/two-years-on/#comment-948 |
| Thank you for your support and your comments, everyone. Well, maybe not the one that thought I was T ... :-) I guess what it all really comes down to is this: about the time I hit 40, I simply decided I was sick of being what everyone else wanted me to be. It was time to just be myself. This post comes the closest to saying it outright: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/06/13/techno-high-school/ I realize that not everyone is going to like me. A white boy isn't supposed to think and act like an outsider, after all, so I often throw prejudices all to Hell. I ask questions that seem really stupid at times, or at least autistic, because I tend to question really basic assumptions about ... well, about everything. Yeah, I know, I'm a real pain in the ass. But you read my attempts to explain why, and I appreciate that. I may be too old to try to fit into the great High School of life, but y'all are the ones that take me for what I am - whatever the Hell that is. I appreciate it more than I can say. Thank you! |
2009-04-10T19:55:38+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/10/two-years-on/#comment-946 |
| Well, yes, it's the overall theme. It seems to me that we aren't just ahistoric but are actually afraid of our past. The mistakes we've made rarely are discussed outside of some sterilized, systemitized "political correctness" that's stripped of all emotion. I think that anxiety about our future is the only possible result of a fear of our past. We wind up living deep in today but far less well anchored than a Taoist (or Zorba the Greek). I would like to think that I'm wrong about this fear, but when I realized that the lack of weight given to historical arguments matched our opinion of ghosts, well, a few pieces fell into place. I hope I'm wrong, but the one thing I really fear is a fear of history. |
2009-04-08T17:12:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/08/ghost-story/#comment-905 |
| Dan, you're right that GM just isn't the force it was when transit systems were ripped up 50 years ago - it does make you wonder what happens when that is not only gone, but everyone knows it's gone. Janine, I don't know anything in particular. Yes, I want to stay upbeat because there's a way to do this right. I hope we do it that way the next time - and there will be a next time as long as there's money around. |
2009-04-06T21:05:27+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/06/transit-planning/#comment-891 |
| Sorry I've been away from the comments - too busy trying to make a living. Pretty tough these days, too. One of the things I left off of this piece, because I thought it was obvious, is that the economy has to restructure itself - there's no great Politburo that will tell us just what we'll all be doing. We're gonna have a Free Market, more or less, no matter what happens. A Free Market takes time to adjust, generally, and the more "friction" or resistance it has to adjusting the longer it takes. What will be the jobs of tomorrow? I have only a few clues, and I while I thought about a piece on that it seemed so sketchy and pointless I dropped the idea. What's more interesting is how our economy moves in a way that takes advantage of the talent which now seems like a big excess. How will it do that? I dunno, but I know it'll be different. About all I think we can do it to allow it to move as rapidly as we reasonably can, and that's flexibility. I'm afraid we just don't have it. Would it be nice if some central Politburo could tell us just what things are gonna look like in a few years? Um, no, actually. I'm good with how things are - with some minor tweaking to make it a bit more open, and bit more fluid, and ideally even more of a Free Market than it is now in certain ways. |
2009-04-03T14:39:31+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/04/03/restructuring/#comment-879 |
| Lauri, it's funny you should mention this because part of the reason I decided to write about my experience is that I don't know any good memoirs or other stories "From the inside". Dan, I'll check out what you recommended, but I can see that you had trouble with him, too. Telling the story from a "Strong half-step back", as I recommend for nearly everything in "Downriver", will be very hard. There's a lot of distance between the Amish and the "Anglishers", as they call them. I know I'm somewhere in between at times. Also, I forgot to include a link to this post from some time ago, which I think applies to the problem of building trust in the internet world: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/06/28/ex-machina/ |
2009-03-27T14:08:32+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/27/trust/#comment-836 |
| I'm hedging my bets a bit because this is the first Depression to hit after modern economic theory came into being. While I don't believe for a second that we've learned how to prevent Depressions, we may very well have learned how to make them a lot less bad. I'm only partially hopeful so far. The Fed sure is pushing money into the economy as fast as they can, but we're not doing the things necessary to make restructuring easy. Labor markets are not very fluid at all. Whether people really want to call this a Depression or a Banana, I don't really care. But it is exactly the same kind of thing that we've seen before - and we know what this monster can do. |
2009-03-19T23:43:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/18/hysterical-depression/#comment-786 |
| Whether or not this is a big Depression or not, it certainly has the key characteristics. At least this time the government is doing a lot better than Hoover did. Do these things blow 40-somethings like me away? Sure do. We are the ones with kids to raise, after all. Having a lot to lose is not a good thing in this situation. | 2009-03-19T21:32:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/18/hysterical-depression/#comment-784 |
| Dan: I always say that my goal is to get people to think and that they return the favor. Glad that I did, and especially glad you did! My next piece is already in the can, but you are talking about a larger framework for all human activity. Yes, I like it! I'll think on it some. In another hour you'll have what I've been thinking about. :-) |
2009-03-17T23:14:37+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/16/values/#comment-763 |
| Cristy: I need to work on making things shorter. The problem is that to me, the art of saying a lot in a few words is poetry - and it only gets more dense! Bonnie: Sustainability, in economic and human and environmental terms, has to be what it's all about. Without that, there is only eternal conquest. I may write about a historical parallel on Wednesday. Bruce: See? You got it in 2 words, not 1200! It can be done! :-) Janine: I have been saying all along that this had to happen. I'm a Democrat largely because in 1988 Mike Dukakkis said that "We can't have an economy based on everyone doing everyone else's laundry" - and I've never heard it said better before or since. The expectation that we can get something from nothing is our real problem. A few generations ago people would not have fallen for this nonsense on the upswing, so there would have been less pain on the downside. I'm sure of it. |
2009-03-16T19:08:54+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/16/values/#comment-756 |
| Mitch: Funny story about Latin. Actually, in Bavaria I found that if all I knew was that an English word came from a Latin root I could say, "Es ist auf Latin ____" and they would understand me. Latin in general seems really handy. Bruce: No, I certainly don't mean for this to replace learning a language in depth. And you're right that a good sense of how languages are structured really has to be the main goal, not just how to ask for the bathroom. Part of my reasoning is that I learned the structure of languages while trying to learn a language - German - and that seemed like two things at once. The idea is to separate those a bit. What if I change it from an emphasis on 20 key phrases to an emphasis on the bits and pieces that make up a language? :-) |
2009-03-09T20:48:12+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/09/%c2%bfdonde-esta-el-banjo/#comment-716 |
| Dan - I really love stuff like that. I have several books on Chemurgy just for the same reason. It's really good. Just when I doubt we'll ever have people who are that smart and honest in charge of things again, I'm sure I'll be surprised. In the meantime, the engineers and seers of the 1920s are, at times, real gems that are worth reading over and over. I hope I can connect with MNPost, but so far they have been very stand-offish. I'm starting to see them as part of the Establishment, which is to say people who've seen the boat rock an awful lot and wish it would stop. They're very white, very male, and all my age and older. I also tried very hard to convince Kramer that there was another model for making money on the internet that involves targeted advertising, but I don't think he understood it. Facebook does this pretty well, but a local service like MNPost sure could go to town with the idea. But they aren't interested. I think it's sad, frankly. At some point, it has to be obvious that the established order is on its way to being dead before people will be willing to ask what comes next, I'm afraid. I hope that moment comes shortly. The established order has, at least lately, been pretty stupid about a lot of things. As much as I'm a city boy, I don't think that city people have the sense of getting things done that is necessary (I'm an Engineer by schooling). I want people to really question how things happen and why. I could ramble for hours on this topic, but let's just say that when I read the people who were looking at making things happen some 3 generations ago, no matter if it's Chemurgy (and George Washington Carver, a hero!) or more ordinary infrastructure building, I can't help but find our time seriously wanting. We have work to do, too. Let's get at it! |
2009-03-06T20:21:20+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/06/call-to-action/#comment-706 |
| zeitguy: Thank, er, I think. I'm trying to determine the most effective way to get my message out. One thing I've learned is that I need a solid foundation, which a few 800 (to 1,000) word essays can provide - especially once linked in. Building the new upon a firm foundation of the classics is what van Beethoven was all about - as was Alinksky, frankly. The problem is that people vested in the Established Order feel a deep need to insult people like me who challenge them. I've been called "Delusional" for saying that civil unrest is even a possibility to warn against, for example. The reaction has been so strong against what I have to say that I've become convinced that people have used it to keep me from finding steady work. Yes, I'd like to get the word out a bit more. That's my goal. Twitter is a pain in the butt, yet I can't help but think that training myself to use 140 characters isn't a good thing. I'm also hitting other people's sites to add comments. As for introductions, well, I don't know people well enough! But I'll think about what I can do. |
2009-03-06T18:27:21+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/06/call-to-action/#comment-704 |
| I've been slow to respond - sorry. I'll just hit the highlights. Cristy: Since I make my living in words, it does seem very strange to say that words are not that important. For me, it's the humility of understanding the limitations of words that is important. Yet there is great power in engaging people all the same, at least in a social sense. The writer in me says you are right, the Engineer in my says that we tiny walking upright chimps aren't as important as we think. :-) Allow me that much humility - the usual arrogance you have to take in larger doses than most people. Bruce: The choice of word "Depression" is a strange on both emotionally and economically. But both do describe a long, protracted feeling that everything sucks. Are we in a period of just being down on ourselves? Well, naturally, I don't think so. I use "Depression" to describe a type of Recession more than a depth or length, and we are in the type of downturn that starts with a banking/credit meltdown and gradually oozes through everything. I also think we're way over-due on the traditional scale, but who's to say that those cycles hold in an industrial era? I think the high unemployment, at least by traditional measures, is well on its way - 2M people will lose their jobs this quarter at the current rate. It's what comes with this particular type of contraction, at least usually. I expect it to get a lot worse unless the government really does have its shit together. I hope that makes at least some sense. Dan - wow ... that is a great topic to spend some time on, but I seriously have to do more reading first! I was thinking of explaining Kondratiev via the concept of Jubilee - 7 cycles of 7, followed by a Jubilee Year of great abundance. The middle seven year is the bad one. I stopped myself from doing it because, in all honesty, I know the Biblical references but I know there's a LOT more in other cultures. You mentioned Aeneid, and I just don't know it. Let me get to the reading! :-) Thanks, everyone, great stuff. You're making me think, and I love that! |
2009-03-06T18:15:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/04/whats-in-a-name/#comment-703 |
| Sorry, I have no leads on where to purchase Taoiana - I've never been able to accumulate such things in my life. I like to say that the sage knows that the Way lies in his head and his being, but the reality is I'm just really cheap. As for my audience, well, they're awfully shy. I know there are a lot more people reading my stuff than the comments suggest, but I can't get comments out of 'em. This is a big hint, y'all! The first rule of social marketing is that everyone lies about their traffic, so I won't say a word - it'll look like lying. Just check the Alexa rankings, which are far from perfect but make a good first guess. I should probably say something more controversial just to get some comments - in case my slam of social marketing doesn't do it. |
2009-03-04T16:40:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/03/04/whats-in-a-name/#comment-675 |
| If that's the only question, you're right - we're screwed. I'm the only person who puts it this way because I'm a Gentleman Pirate at heart, a Jean Lafitte. I also tend to do far too much work that just needs to be done for very little pay. It gets old. The lack of transparency in our whole system has been an issue for a while and I think it'll be a much bigger one soon. We don't find jobs with Want Ads, we find them by knowing people who know someone - either as networking or through recruiting firms. Critical information as to where the real needs are and what the opportunities are out there has been privatized because it is valuable. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has some of this information, but when things start to change rapidly they won't keep up; that's also when the broader market of people needs it the most. A fluid labor market is critical when there is restructuring. I've gone on at length about the overhead per employee, but the other major barrier I see is the simple fact that the professional middle class has been turning into an enormous Guild system. If you break that down rapidly, the first thing you'll see is falling wages. However, at the end of it all, there's serious work to be done all over the place. I've been doing a lot of it, but it's time that some of the good people I've been proud to work shoulder to shoulder on get paid what they are worth. Openness is the only way to do that - and the only way for people to keep moving the way they have to through bad times. We're gonna put this "Information Age" to a real test. I want it to pass. Who has money? It's a simple question - but one that I can't get a good answer to. That's scary as all Hell, actually. |
2009-02-25T17:42:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/25/want-ads/#comment-649 |
| Bruce, you're exactly right. That's why I'm so slow to say, "We have to have more manufacturing in the US!" outright. There are key advantages to manufacturing jobs and there the decline of manufacturing has a lot to do with the perilous position we're in. BUT - that doesn't mean we should start pumping out cheap stuff that China has gotten a rep over. What I'm doing here is listing what I know - that ultimately we have to make something and that there have been a number of policy changes over the years that have made this more difficult. What to make? I'm not there yet. I like the fact that you started down that road, BTW, and you have some good starts. Obama is thinking this way, too. But I want the groundwork established so that people know why we're doing this. Thanks a bunch! |
2009-02-20T22:36:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/20/grandpas-job/#comment-631 |
| I left off retail because, strangely, it doesn't seem to have changed much. It was 11% of GDP in 1947 and 10% in 2006. I don't have employment percentages because, I think, it was folded into service - but I'm not sure. Since it hasn't changed much as a share of GDP, I doubt it's changed much as a share of employment. That's not to say it hasn't changed, but the bulk change in our economy doesn't register. |
2009-02-20T03:24:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/20/grandpas-job/#comment-626 |
| I checked it out Jeffrey, and you are correct. It does explain a lot. What an interesting way to remember Jackson, though. The portrait was made when life weighed heavy on him, but it looks as though History is weighing on him. In the end, he weighs heavily on History. But the sadness is really the loss of his one true love. Dan, there's a lot more to say here, and I think I'm going to stay on this. Thinking about Jackson opens the door to westward expansion and land speculation, which gets me to a lot of interesting parallels in history. I'm ... thinking. :-) Naturally, I'd like other people's comments and links to their own musings on these lines. (It may even give me an excuse to whip out my 1853 3 cent piece for a topic. :-) ) |
2009-02-19T15:47:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/18/jackson/#comment-619 |
| I believe you are right. I always take GDP based arguments. I will re-think the entire need for deficit based stimulus, then, because the deficit up to preparations for WWII was tiny, around 0.5% of GDP. That suggests that the most important thing was redistribution, not actual stimulus. I may have bought into some propaganda unknowingly. Thanks for calling me on it. |
2009-02-16T16:26:49+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/16/a-fireside-chat/#comment-607 |
| Thank you both, too much good stuff to comment on point by point - too much that doesn't need me to add anything to, either. I would like to point out my series on "A More Perfect Union", which has a link on the right. I'm not going to tell you I have all the answers, but I think it's a very important topic. We don't have the kind of common culture it takes to survive hard times - or really call ourselves one nation. The fragmentation of our culture is very chilling and, to my mind, the biggest long term threat we face. I know I have a city boy's view on this. I don't get out in rural Minnesota much, at least not since I stopped working with the Amish near Harmony, MN. I learned a lot down there, and I really should get back out there. What I do know is that values are one thing and people are another - you don't have to agree with your neighbor to be helpful. If the Amish and Anglischers (their name for us) can do it, anyone can. What I'm getting at here with manufacturing is really just a sub-set of an earlier post on what it takes to create jobs. I proposed that the overhead cost per employee needs to be looked at seriously - which includes payroll taxes, health care, and many other things. The loss of manufacturing is tied to that problem, along with the Imperial Dollar that rules the world and has provided us with a lot of cheap stuff from other nations. What are my solutions? I think Monday's post will be on why I don't have a lot of solutions yet. The main problem, to me, is that we're not talking about real issues that make a real difference. I'm not smart enough to come up with everything on my own. Without hearing from rural people and older people and a lot of other people I can't say just what will work. What I do know is that a lot of voices aren't heard, and a lot of topics haven't been seriously hashed out. I'm not jumping to any conclusions - I'm only sure which way this has to go if it's gonna get real. But I really thank you both for diving in and helping that along. I'd like a lot more comments, long and juicy comments, if you would be so kind to recommend this humble blog to a few friends. I hope we're talking this towards a new understanding. Thanks! |
2009-02-13T17:19:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/13/build-a-better-tomorrow/#comment-587 |
| Bonnie, you're right on. It's what we have to do. Janine, I'll send you the list - there are 300 million names on it, including yours and mine. I just want to move ahead, but to do that we have to know what went wrong. Blame? I'll take my share - or, more accurately, my kids probably will. And grandkids. I'm really sick of people who make this a partisan problem, tho. I'm good with taking their names so we know who gets to be the first with their backs to the wall. I saw a little CNN after the press conference and I was appalled - at both sides. |
2009-02-11T16:45:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/11/the-long-view/#comment-575 |
| I have to confess that I go through spells where I can't read a thing. I become frustrated by the inadequacy of writing to actually be the moment it is reporting. This always starts with my own clumsy use of the craft, but eventually I have trouble with other people's work. When this happens, I read Don Quixote again. I know other people who use the same trick. I may not be up to the task, but it is possible to form characters into a mass that transforms itself in the mind of the reader. That magic is what writing is all about. It's intoxicating. It's why I named this blog "Barataria" (as explained in the "About"). Look, Sancho, another dragon! | 2009-02-10T16:55:44+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/09/reading-is-writing/#comment-569 |
| Kady: I do my own graphs, and always have. It goes with the Chemical Engineering degree. The data sources are linked to in the text just below the graph itself. Someday, I'll pull out the state-by-state comparisons I've whipped up that are absolutely fascinating. :-) |
2009-02-10T00:00:57+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/16/keynes-to-success/#comment-566 |
| Bruce: Oh, no, we don't have a real market, not at all. We don't know costs, most people don't pay them, and we have no measures of quality. A real market or market-like operation would indeed control costs, but it has to be created first. No, this is the worst of both worlds - it is NOT a free market. It's so bad it's really hard to imagine what a functioning system would look like. |
2009-02-06T17:37:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/06/healthy-care/#comment-556 |
| Oops! Stupid mistake. It's been fixed. Thanks! | 2009-02-04T17:10:18+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/02/04/overhead-or-head-count/#comment-546 |
| It would be nice to be able to name it something profound and illuminating, but we may not have that option. I still think that China will want something for its money. How 'bout if we break it into smaller pieces and sell the rights to those: "This month's recession is brought to you by Tie Guan Yin - The Iron Goddess of Mercy. Have a cup of Tie Guan Yin in the afternoon as a perfect pick-me-up when you're slaving away doing our bidding! Tie Guan Yin - it's all the mercy you're gonna get!" Or is that too cynical? :-) |
2009-01-30T17:03:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/30/was-it-so-great/#comment-535 |
| Thanks, Cristy! Before we get down to work, we have some serious policy changes to think long and hard about. I was going to get into those, but in all honesty I don't like to complain without an alternative - since I don't have one yet, I let it go for now. To A Saint Paulite, you're also very right. When that happened, a lot of us out in the neighborhood were upset - people normally Democrats in good standing. This has been characterized as a partisan political issue, but it is not. The first link in this piece is about frustration with this same situation: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2008/06/11/urban-return/ We have to concentrate on what works. I was very pleased to hear that the City is interested in getting individuals to renno homes because that is, no question, the best way to go. It's about people and their commitment to Saint Paul. That also includes a lot of changes so that people want to make that commitment. We should be talking about EVERYTHING at this stage, IMHO. Now, as to the CDCs and other nonprofits that often do the work - they do have a role. I know it's galling when $250k or so is put into a home that sells for far less, but that's what's needed under the current codes. Simply put, in situations like this it's probably better to have a homeowner do that so that the subsidy is sweat equity rather than cash. But there will be times when CDCs have a key role to play - and that's been described as neighborhoods where the market has completely failed. I like that. Should there be more oversight when we put money into those neighborhoods? I'm all for it IF (big if) it's done in a way that doesn't increase bureaucracy and jack the price up even more. I'm optimistic, yes. I see the City understanding just how big the problem is. That means that we may have to change a lot of policies and get LIEP on board to make things happen more quickly and reasonably. Hey, let's all lean on them! We have a crisis, and I think we aren't just screwing around hoping it'll go away. I think a lot of people can tell us about their experience and make it all work one Hell of a lot better. Only a fool wouldn't listen. If this little post is one step in getting people together to make serious changes, I'll be happy. I'd like more comments like this because you have a damned fine point. Let's get organized and really change things to make this work! |
2009-01-28T18:02:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/28/renno/#comment-530 |
| A great addition, Brian. It was hard to come up with the right thing to say at this point, because we have come so far and yet have so much to do. If we learned anything from Dr. King, it's that hard work and a commitment to empower the powerless has rewards we can hardly imagine. But today, I think, we can see how far it has taken us. That is the faith that the dark past has taught us; that is the hope that the future has promised. Let's keep marching on! |
2009-01-19T03:18:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/19/shadows-past/#comment-499 |
| That was 4 questions. :-) If we spend this and it doesn't work, I have no idea what comes next, either. We'll have shot our ammo and still not have dinner. This may not have worked on the recession of 2000 because we used a "trickle down" method of stimulating the economy - upper middle class tax cuts, a war, and so on. I was hoping to quantify that, but I couldn't - the resulting argument was a lot of hand-waving that looked stupid. But it's possible that a real New Deal would still work as it did in the 30s. That's not what we're doing so far, however. My concern is that there is so much restructuring that needs to be done that we might not have a working pump to prime. There's far too much money going into exercises in pushing money around rather than actually making stuff, for example. We may have to break the economy as we know it down much further before there's something that deserves the investment of a Keynesian stimulus. I admit, I'm really not sure yet. I would like to see this debated, however. Why isn't it? Why are people so damned sure this will work - because it's the only idea they have? |
2009-01-16T19:37:42+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/16/keynes-to-success/#comment-488 |
| Ron: I believe that the networked approach to management, as opposed to the top-down or command approach, has a lot of potential for research and other knowledge products. However, when something is relatively well defined, especially something ready for mass production in manufacturing, seems to benefit from a top-down approach. The difference seems ot be when it makes sense to have a strong division of labor. The organizations I have seen that work well in a Networked structure also do not benefit from division of labor - in fact, cross-training helps a lot. I hope that makes sense. As always, it's just my observations. |
2009-01-16T03:09:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/09/spontaneous/#comment-485 |
| Thanks, I do appreciate it! Sorry 'bout Nathan, too - he really should have had it. No accounting for popularity. :-) |
2009-01-14T15:37:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/14/friends/#comment-480 |
| RJ, I totally agree, and I predicted this as much as two years before it happened. I did this by reading people like John Mauldin and Bill Gross. If you follow the links I gave, you'll see this. But most people, unimaginably, did NOT see this coming - even people in financial institutions. Why? Was this a deliberate blind eye to the obvious? I'm starting to realize after chatting with a lot of people that, no, they really didn't see it coming. They should have, yes, it was obvious as all Hell. But they didn't. Why? Something has gone terribly wrong. That's all I can tell you. I agree, it's inexcusable that so few people saw this coming. But that appears to be the truth - they didn't. |
2009-01-14T15:35:57+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/12/stupid-like-a-fox/#comment-479 |
| Employment law may protect against age discrimination, but it says nothing about the simple fact that people anticipating retirement are more likely to take buyouts. To the extent companies shed workers that way, they will definitely tend to lose more experienced workers. Once that part is over, I can assure you that age discrimination in the world of searching jobs is very real and utterly unenforceable. As for the specific management style, if you'll follow the links you'll see that I've long been a skeptic of it. However, I've seen it work recently. That's why I decided to post about it. I do see this "networked' approach catching on even as I worry that it's not appropriate for manufacturing - the one thing I've said will get this nation out of the doldrums. Having said all that, it's quite reasonable to say that the Millenials favor this approach. They clearly do. How appropriate it is remains to be seen. What we do know is that economic downturns almost always accelerate generational change, and I don't see this one as any different. |
2009-01-11T13:49:25+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2009/01/09/spontaneous/#comment-471 |
| I just wanted to make it clear that, apparently, even adults believe in Santa Claus - even if our incarnation is an ECB bureaucrat that manages to save our bacon while we sleep. | 2008-12-24T15:48:17+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/24/a-visit-from-st-klaus/#comment-432 |
| Maris, you shouldn't get me started. Too late! I love the 1st, if for no reason other than it was the first album I bought. The way it opens with a question, asked twice and then answered. Herbert von Karajan said that the 9 should be seen as a set, symmetric in their form. That question at the start of the first is answered by the ninth. The second and eighth .. I don't remember. The third and seventh really do go well together, with the marcia funabre matched to something like a resurrection. Fourth and sixth are both simple and happy. And the fifth stands alone. Bwa-ha-ha! I think it's a strange theory, but parts of it work for me (the parts I remember). |
2008-12-17T16:53:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/17/count-your-blessings/#comment-419 |
| Oooh, I think I've been beaten on my own blog! Touche! | 2008-12-17T13:20:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2007/10/24/faking-it/#comment-418 |
| The world is always turning toward the morning. I used that in last year's solstice post: http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2007/12/17/solstice/ Oh, and since there is only one time and it is GMT (or UTC, if you must) it's already past Ludwig van's birthday. Sorry. The local station, MPR, was playing all 9 Symphonies all day. |
2008-12-17T00:45:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/17/count-your-blessings/#comment-413 |
| Everyone, I don't mean to make yer brain hurt. I just do. :-) Seriously, I know that people like me seem like a big pain at times, but I honestly think that the world we live in is understandable - if not with our heads, at least with our guts. I try to hit both in my blog for one simple reason - no one else seems to try. Honestly, how many forms of media, social or otherwise, have made a serious effort to warn you about the economy or at least explain in hindsight what happened? Well, it's yer economy, so doesn't it seem like it's a good idea to know something about it? I'm not perfect - far from it - but what I try to do is retreat to first principles that make it easier to understand the bits and pieces around our lives that have been ignored by so many for so long. Marketism is an important concept for doing that, IMHO. Your mileage may vary. Substantial penalties for early withdrawal. What if every blog and every social marketer made a point of increasing the understanding of the world that shapes our lives? Think how millions of people would learn things that allow them to take control of their lives! Think about what Freedom really is! To me, 400 word blurbs on what I had for breakfast are an utter waste of space. Let's not just seize the day, let's use it to wring out every bit of life we can! |
2008-12-16T17:08:30+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/13/marketism/#comment-408 |
| The 50 will be eliminated by the proposed train, the 94 reduced. The 16 will also be reduced, but that's the main point of contention right now with the neighbors that ride it - the proposed LRT will have a minimum half mile between stops, meaning it does not replace the 16 bus all that well. This was designed primarily as part of a long-term strategy to put LRT throughout the twin cities. There were many choices where they could route a high-speed train, but chose University Avenue instead. It was, indeed, conceived as an express train between downtowns, which is why I compare it to the 94. No matter what, the proposed line is not a local route and is not a substitute for the 16. That's my main problem. If we need a through, express train there are other places to put it - including the Short Line - that are less expensive due to less utility removal. Other cities like Portland, Alburqueue, and Seattle have used a lighter weight vehicle for local travel, and that's what would replace the 16. More importantly, it would fit within the Federal Cost Effectiveness Guidelines that determine the budget, whereas this proposal is currently over budget by $50M and probably more once they finalize the plans for the Washington Ave Bridge (this changes constantly). My main problem with this proposal remains that I do not think it can be built in the budget allowed, and there are other technologies that can be. They want this to be all things for all people, and that is running up the tab far too much. I think they should punt and start over. |
2008-12-16T16:29:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/01/30/crazy-train/#comment-406 |
| Bruce: 1) I never claimed that the 16 bus takes 28 minutes. The 94 takes that long between downtowns - I know these times because I've ridden them all. 2) I agree that external costs need to be considered. But why is the heavy LRV technology the only one being considered for this line? It makes no sense at all - and it cannot be built under the constraints put on Federal money, which has been my point all along. I want a rail system. What is happening is not going to produce one. I would guess that you would be as sad as I am once this is realized by everyone. |
2008-12-16T03:26:36+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/01/30/crazy-train/#comment-404 |
| My copy is falling apart. But you can find one around a lot of places. Thanks! | 2008-12-12T20:30:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/10/rules-for-radicals/#comment-398 |
| Thanks. This is one of those things that really doesn't make much sense, but it keeps our world together - right up until it all falls apart. News has come to us courtesy people who will pay to have their own news (ads) delivered all along. I think the main thing to consider, not giving much of my own ideas away, is that static paper required static ads, but dynamic databases require dynamic ads. To some extent, it's up to marketers to catch up. Where has the ad revenue gone? I'm sure it didn't go away. I think the most important thing to consider is the last link in the post, at "successful local businesses". Local media stopped being truly local and went regional, feeding the needs of Bigger Box retailers. They couldn't grow fast enough to keep up. Retailers have outgrown local nooze outlets, rendering them obsolete. Local markets create local nooze. That's the bottom line. Want a local media outlet of some kind? It has to be relatively orthogonal to the people who pay to have their nooze delivered, which is to say they must be local as well. |
2008-12-12T20:30:00+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/12/news-hole/#comment-397 |
| I don't debate that all the bits and pieces that went into being a Rockstar were around before van Beethoven. I'm saying he's the first one to put it all together and make the leap, much as Rock 'n' Roll went from being played in bars to great big arena concerts. It's the image that matters the most, and that image has stayed with us. I think a lot of the reason is that van Beethoven's personna was very public and more than a bit outrageous. He was also totally dependent on that image. I realize this is a stretch, but I don't think it's a big one. As I said, it's not a matter of a major invention but how it is packaged. Who did play the first arena-sized concert, anyway? The Rolling Stones? |
2008-12-11T03:37:14+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/12/rockstar/#comment-391 |
| Guys, I tried the heavy drinking in the morning. I wound up writing two chapters of "The Great Gatsby" before I passed out. Seriously, I don't do dat hard stuff. Writers have a bad enough rep as it is! A couple of beers on Friday is about my limit since about 5 years ago when I came closer than I'd like to having a real problem. Although, I have to say I've heard more than one writer refer to whiskey/vodka/etc as "writing fluid". |
2008-12-02T02:46:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/01/motivation/#comment-357 |
| Brian: That's a very good point. It is a kind of acting, no matter how I look at it. Janine: Guilty as charged! Reality is what you make of it, after all. :-) |
2008-12-01T22:31:44+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/01/motivation/#comment-354 |
| Excellent question! I have decided that "liking" a character is too much - I'm going for "interested in", which is to say more compelling than likable. Did I ever tell you that I do things the hard way? :-) Prince of Wales is a Keemun that has a lot in common with Lapsang Souchong, minus the smokiness. It's all smooth and mellow, not head-knocking. But they blend well for extra bouts of wide-awake fighting with the characters, should they deserve it! |
2008-12-01T02:20:24+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/12/01/motivation/#comment-351 |
| Thanks. Consider this my answer to "American Exceptionalism". Yes, we have a special history that we can be proud of and a lot of promise. But it's up to us to live up to that promise. The Promised Land is in the heart and arm and brain of the people. That's not radical or ahistoric by any means - even Brigham Young believed it. as did Laura Ingalls Wilder. As for podcasts, I tried it out to see if anyone liked them. I had no response at all, so I guess no one did. It's a lot of work and it didn't seem worth it. |
2008-11-26T15:55:28+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/26/promised-land/#comment-335 |
| Judy: "Deconstructionism" is very, very accurate when describing what I'm talking about. Does it qualify as a real era? Not by itself, unless it influences all art forms and matures a bit. I write these posts to start a dialogue, and to get people thinking. You got me back. Thanks! :-) I'll follow up on Deconstructionism later. |
2008-11-24T15:22:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/24/the-fractal-era/#comment-331 |
| Thanks, everyone. I like the term "Fractal Era", of course, but I do think that it's time to start looking at other terms. I fully agree that "postmodern" is just a subset of "modern", and should not be considered as particularly different - regardless of the art form. Postmodernism is a reaction, not a movement. I regret not spending more time on minimalism in literature, painting, and music, and I may have to revisit that later. There is a point where the search for the essence of the form abandons the ideas of "modernism", and I do think we've crossed that long ago. Architecture is a bit conservative as art forms go because it does require changes in building technology. Judy, you're right. Let's see where things go with that, but it's unlikely to change rapidly - especially during this downturn. I hope that some of Chris Alexander's alternative approaches start to really catch on. It is a bit presumptuous to name an era that you're living in. However, the term "Baroque" was used contemporary to the period along with "Rococo", which also goes for "Romatic Era" along with "Enlightenment Era". There's clearly some flux at the time, but the principles are laid out and named. The term "Modern" does come from the Latin "modo" and means "in the style of / right now". That suggests it applies to any period we're in now, but it can also be dispensed with as necessary. Certainly, the spirit that "right now" is terribly important, ala "Avant Garde", typifies the feeling of artistic fashion in the twentieth century - and may not relate all that well to the twenty first. We'll just have to see. For me, The Fractal Era starts in the year 2000. It's a handy place to draw a line. |
2008-11-24T15:09:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/24/the-fractal-era/#comment-330 |
| If you'll allow me to say that perhaps it's implemented badly, relentlessly most of the time, I think we might agree. The solution you propose is right on - lighting is important, and one size never fits all. A good designer does break out of that! | 2008-11-24T03:13:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/06/02/hung-t-bar-ceiling/#comment-326 |
| Thanks so much. Frank Gehry is kind of a bridge between eras, in my opinion. His form is very fractal, but using materials like stainless steel is very modernist - "Just look at how clever we humans are!" I wish he took more cues from nature and lost the audacity a bit, but the principle is good. |
2008-11-24T00:36:11+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/24/the-fractal-era/#comment-324 |
| Art and Culture are all around us. We don't need to look for inspiration any further than the 'hood, and the arts we create can benefit the 'hood as well. Literature is always a bit solitary, but ou have to learn character study somewhere - why not out in the 'hood? Sewing circles, iron pours, other statements of public art - these are all a part of culture, and they can and should be a mirror on the world around us. Why not? You're not gonna impress the big boyz in New York no matter what ya do. | 2008-11-21T22:01:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/21/more-perfect-union-neighborhood/#comment-319 |
| Teresa, you're absolutely right that the internet makes a broader "Folk" culture possible - but the channels make it harder to find. My next piece is going to be on what I think has to (and probably will) happen to get around this. Basically, it could be a great thing that brings us together, or it could be something that separates us the way Cristy worries. I think that with a small nudge we can make great. |
2008-11-20T16:36:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/19/more-perfect-union-internet/#comment-311 |
| Yes, I am making a bigger point. I want people to think about larger ideas like "culture" because I'm never going to have all the answers. But I'll do my best to share what answers I do have on Friday. I think it's very important to come to some kind of agreement about basic decency and stop being so pissy about stupid things. Seeing how immigrants and homosexuals can be used as wedges to promote bad politics and prevent ANYTHING from ever getting done is just a symptom of the problem. The real problem is that E Pluribus ain't so Unum anymore. That's what I hope to work out. |
2008-11-19T20:27:33+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/19/more-perfect-union-internet/#comment-308 |
| Thanks Breeni! Brian, I hope this answers your point - people are indeed forming on-line book clubs and doing their own reviews. It's been a bit slow, but it seems to me that the review and discussion process is democratizing through the internet. This is a very important development, and publishers MUST encourage it! I hope readers will find this all very useful, too. Without readers there's no need for writers! |
2008-11-14T18:34:53+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/14/more-perfect-union-publishing/#comment-286 |
| Excellent point, but I think I'll have to hold off until Monday. I want to say a little about the publishing industry and how literature died on us, plus need a few days to think about it. :-) But I will think about it. It's what my old friend Craig called the "fat yet full" problem - how do you know when you have enough? Usually people wind up "fat and hungry" in this way of looking at it. Why is that? Why do we always seem to want more? A big hunk of this is indeed defining yourself by what you own, which is to say letting it own what you think is you. Why does this happen? Why does it persist? I don't know. We must be awfully insecure to give in so willingly. I'll think about it. I promise. |
2008-11-13T22:55:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/12/more-perfect-union-literature/#comment-276 |
| Absolutely, Brian. What I'm getting at here is a point that Simon Bolivar made that is generally lost on the USofA, at least in the sense that we don't like to talk about it generally. A common culture is necessary to make a stable constitutional republic functional - in that sense, I agree with the right wing. However, I don't see their narrow view of culture (defined on their own terms) as viable. Literature, to me, is important because it gives us some common language that can't be hijacked ala 1984 by those who would enslave us. There are many aspects to a common culture, but the language, icons, and frames are critical to me. Yes, this is all about our Republic and the freedom that it embodies. It may seem abstract, but I'd like to open a broader discussion of our culture than we usually allow. |
2008-11-13T04:20:00+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/12/more-perfect-union-literature/#comment-274 |
| Yes, you are right. Sometimes a common language doesn't actually mean anything (outside of its cultural context): Cliches And sometimes language is used to increase the divide between groups: Techno High School Barking at the 'net | 2008-11-12T19:12:52+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/12/more-perfect-union-literature/#comment-272 |
| Carla, and everyone: What I said to the PPress was that I "usually am a die hard Democrat", which was appended to them saying that I called myself "a die hard Democrat". I won't claim it's not fair. You have every right to be mad at me for disloyalty because I was disloyal. But I simply could not bring myself to vote for Franken. If it was any seat other than Paul's, I might have, but I didn't. I also can tell you that there are hundreds of people like me through the state - but perhaps an equal number of Republicans who couldn't stand Norm Coleman. We'll just have to see. But I know that Minnesota can do better than this. |
2008-11-10T22:24:58+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/03/sen-dean-barkley/#comment-259 |
| Brian, I know this is hard for you, too. We're both loyal DFLers and have fought a lot of good fights. If this was any seat other than Paul's, I' d hold my nose and go with the team. I just had my fill at this last round of accusations and that was that. I do think my state deserves better, yes. Maris, the problem for me is that I developed high standards somewhere along I-75 in a car full of my stuff leaving Florida. Yeah, I know it's worse elsewhere. I just feel like I have to insist on better, is all. Minnesotans used to be a very proud people, an attribute that both infuriated and intrigued me. But I learned to love it about this place. Where did it go? |
2008-11-03T16:03:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/11/03/sen-dean-barkley/#comment-239 |
| I thought about term limits as a solution, but I have to say that I only consider them in the bigger picture of campaign finance and so on. There's clearly a problem in the Senate as it gets older, but it may correct itself through natural means. If it doesn't, perhaps we can find other ways of not just limiting the power of incumbency but also encouraging new voices of all kinds. If that fails, I'm not opposed to term limits. I'd like it to be the last recourse, but honestly, Ted Stevens hasn't done anyone much good in a long time. |
2008-10-30T16:01:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/29/senility-system/#comment-226 |
| The big concern I have is that access to education, long the way that the US bridge divisions between classes, will become a mechanism by which one elite class perpetuates itself. If continuing education is a requirement for the top jobs and it is only accessible by a small number of people, we will see a hardening of class divisions. That has to strike everyone as fundamentally anti-American. I do think that at some point we will step up and change things, but it may take another crisis before we do. |
2008-10-28T15:03:15+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/27/bennies/#comment-222 |
| Thanks for your support. I was afraid this posting would make people think I was a paranoid. Well, growing up in Miami does make you look over your shoulder a bit, but that's perfectly rational. Right? :-) The other anomaly I left out was that when the Miami Herald looked at the 2000 "overvotes" in Dade County, they found one polling place out on Coral Reef Drive that had hundreds of people voting over the number registered. Since this was the polling place closest to the Zoo, the standard joke was that the tapirs and koalas must have voted. What most people missed was that next to the Zoo is the antenna farm that the CIA uses to relay messages to their agents in the field down in South America (by way of Bonaire). Odd fact? Yes, but George Bush's Dad was once what? :-) |
2008-10-22T04:00:02+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/22/banana-republic/#comment-218 |
| I'm always hopeful when we people remember their humanity. Human shortcomings and heroics all come together to make these systems we depend on even as they transcend the humans involved. The strength is always in the people, not the system. I think we'll do OK just because they've been forced to admit what this is really all about. If that's excessive optimism, you can nail me for it later when bad shit goes down. But I also see in Obama someone who at least knows what he doesn't know and in the world's finance ministers a glimmer of fear that may be the same thing. That's good. That's the antidote to a fat & happy arrogance that we've been living with, IMHO. |
2008-10-20T14:56:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/20/out-of-the-woods/#comment-208 |
| Jeanne: Yes, politics is largely tribal. People go along with their "people" as much as anything, and I guess you've just joined another tribe. Mine, I think. Welcome! We're not a very orderly lot, but fun. Well, when we're not cynical. We're all full of hope now. I'll go hit your blog right now. | 2008-10-18T02:26:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/17/works-progress/#comment-196 |
| Maris: I might illustrate more, I dunno. I love WPA art, is all. And "My Life as a Teenage Robot" on Nick. :-) Janine: I think this came up before when talking about my fave reform of all, which is 5-year capital budgeting. It's too long to explain in the comments. I've been off on a number of things. I knew the actors and the magnitude of this crash, but the timing has always eluded me - I first thought it was in Feb, then this summer, and then Oct when results for 3Q08 came out. Oh well. I also said that Hillary would have an easy run for President back last December - Ouch! Those two come to mind quickly, but there are a few others, I'm sure. |
2008-10-17T14:44:10+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/17/works-progress/#comment-194 |
| This isn't the end of history, it's just the great wheel of it turning around one more time. What's funny to me is that while one era is clearly spent, the shadows of it will define the next era. The Reagan movement captured something but also channeled it into a product that was useful for some people. ; now it's time to use it a different way that is appropriate to the people that grew up in that world. It's an exciting time, really. We have to look at it that way! |
2008-10-15T16:45:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/15/generations-played-out/#comment-187 |
| Jack: I'll try harder in the future. :-) Maris: You're right in that the market can be a tough master. Liberal Democrats, or Marketists, assume that society can have power over the market. It's not really socialism in that they are two distinct things. Does that make sense? I hope it does, because that's how we've kinda run stuff. |
2008-10-13T02:39:41+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/13/marketism/#comment-181 |
| Jeanne, you're no backward ass Texan - you're one smart person. There's no shame in not making sense of the senseless. It takes either a liar or a fool to claim that they do. Bankers are a good lot, when they do their job right. They provide the grease that allows everyone who has a good idea to make it into reality, and that's a rather noble calling. Where it gets all mommocked up is when they make it possible for con artists to become something like minor deities - people who can make a rabbit or a lot of money come out of a hat. It sure sounds to me that your Dad understood the difference, assuming that you got your attitudes from him. I only hope that the "little guys" become more valuable through all of this. It might make it all worthwhile. Hell, I'm going to keep dreaming of it as if it was a Golden Age, damn this talk about Depression and Collapse. This might yet be our time. Thank you so much for your comment, and may all the best be with you and yours. |
2008-10-11T01:25:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/10/something-from-nothing/#comment-175 |
| Yes, that's a good way to put it. Ultimately, all that stuff made in China, Korea, et al gave them all the cash. We have overvalued paper, or we did have it and now we're looking for the Chinese to bail us out after we got stuck believing our own bullshit. Wouldn't it have been better to keep making stuff all along so that we had the actual cash? The future will always belong to the nations that make things, assuming they have the financial and governmental framework to go to the next level. That's why I go on about Brasil all the time - they aren't the dictatorship-on-low-boil that China is, nor do they have the imperial ambitions of the Russian mafia state. Ideally, it's all a balance. We create the ideas, we implement them as real things, and the bankers write the loans that make it all possible. Glorifying money fer nuthin' only gets us ... well, where we are now. More to the point, I don't see why this is a radical idea to so many people. |
2008-10-10T15:50:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/10/something-from-nothing/#comment-173 |
| Do they really say what they will do? In this time of economic crisis, have we heard a N-Point Economic Plan with the specifics we all crave at a debate? No, we don't. There are two problems with detailed plans such as we'd all like to know about. The first is that someone is likely to be upset about one or more of the points, meaning there's a risk of alienating those key interest groups in a few states that decide the election. The second problem is that if you do present a highly sanitized plan that has no risk, it's a major snooze-fest. If detailed plans were essential to a Presidental campaign, John Kerry would be President right now. He didn't really come all that close. I pointed out before that the 1932 platform of FDR wasn't all the detailed and much of it wasn't followed at all. We've gotten slightly more vapid over time, but not as much as you might think. Like many human activities, this comes down to tribal identities and getting your tribe to show up. For us Dems, that's the kids this time. Policy? If they want to discuss it, I'm ready - just not holding my breath. |
2008-10-08T00:56:05+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/08/debatable/#comment-166 |
| You know, I should confess something here. I included Fitzgerald as a beneficiary of the development of the paperback. Actually, his career was made by publishing short stories in magazines before the Depression hit. I didn't mind doing this because the same technology is involved, which is to say binding with a paper spine and glue - and the particular technology that I have in mind will do for both in the new internet age. I feel better for having confessed this. Whew! |
2008-10-07T18:32:15+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/29/paperback/#comment-162 |
| Thank you both. Great additions to the hard nature of this problem. I'm not proposing any solutions here, and I think it would be presumptive to do so. More than anything, I want people to think long and hard about what poses a real threat to their family an what that means to them. From there, we can all make good decisions and have excellent discussions that may point to the right direction. Left unsaid in this essay was another harsh reality In this nation: health care comes from the employer. That's another reason why working as much as you can, if part time, isn't a viable option. This goes back to the "Five Crises" essay I did last month as a real national emergency. |
2008-10-06T15:23:06+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/06/family-value/#comment-161 |
| Yes, Maris, in many ways it's the same problem today - except twice as bad. And we're at war, among other problems. This is almost my own rebuttal to the last piece. I don't like saying that we're at a turning point in history because history does continue on. Yes, it's all just part of the show, and we are poor players that strut and fret our hour upon the stage and then are heard no more. That's my tale, as it were. |
2008-10-03T01:57:53+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/03/remembering-the-alamo/#comment-151 |
| Ah, yes, China. But are they really interested in oppressing anyone other than their own people? Sure, anyone can get used to imperialism, but China seems as busy with its own crap as it was 2000 years ago. Not to say you may not be right - just that China's world ambitions are a bit baffling. They're not as nakedly imperialistic as we are - yet. |
2008-10-01T12:33:17+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/01/say-what/#comment-146 |
| History doesn't repeat, it rhymes. We won't fall like Rome, but we may fall more like the UK. Their post-Empire period hasn't been all that bad, and I'll bet ours won't be, either. It'll take some getting used to, but the sooner we try the easier it'll be. Is there an Empires Anonymous we can join? |
2008-10-01T04:33:27+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/10/01/say-what/#comment-144 |
| Janine: I have an idea. If anyone out there knows how to work with pdf formats, I'd love to hear from them. Brian: I think we have a chance to change a lot of things. Paperbacks are about $7 at the cheapest, but I think we can make something that can be sold for about $3 or less. I have a wild idea ... :-) |
2008-09-30T21:26:47+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/29/paperback/#comment-138 |
| We could have a new golden age, and I'm (as always) remarkably hopeful for a cynic. We have a lot of new creative forces coming to bear, and if that's combined with a reduction in price (books are about 70% printing and distribution) we might have more readers. That's the key to it all - finding more readers through new, more socially relevant writing and cost reductions. Besides, the medium will be cheaper than other forms of entertainment, which is always a good thing in a Depression. |
2008-09-29T14:04:29+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/29/paperback/#comment-135 |
| Wow. We're seeing a ig increase in homeless people out here. I do think this will lead to some kind of political violence before we're done. It's degrading very quickly, and we do have some additional bad news. I thought this would hit us in October when the results from the summer quarter come in, but they couldn't hold on any longer. I'm sure if they could have held this past the election they would have, but it's too bad. We finally heard from WaMu, but some big players like GMAC aren't in yet. And we still don't know who will buy all the T-Bills that they plan to sell. This is far from over. |
2008-09-28T01:56:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/26/darkness-rising/#comment-131 |
| It's a slow burn, which is only reasonable. Common sense tells us that we should be slow to anger - but that makes it more intense when it finally comes. There's an Irish proverb to that effect. This is developing. Give it time. |
2008-09-26T18:55:17+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/26/darkness-rising/#comment-125 |
| Though I am a Democrat, I am dismayed at the sanctimony displayed in Congress. How could they not know this was coming? I certainly did. Either they bought the lies or they didn't do their job - and either way they make a lousy opposition. Having said that, the only antidote for lies spreading across the nation and being accepted is for as many people as possible to tell the truth every chance they get. We have to fill the spaces inbetween where the lies are allowed to live like vermin. That's our calling as writers, and nothing less. Perhaps that will create a viable opposition, or even a ruling party with a spine. |
2008-09-25T23:04:13+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/24/spaces-inbetween/#comment-119 |
| I think Cristy was being facetious. But that was the popular belief, wasn't it? I'm glad you pointed out that we are all humans and subject to human failings. Any great and marvelous "system" that forgets that is doomed to failure. Our whole culture seems to forget this very often, since human frailty is inconvenient, and may be doomed to failure as a result. But you are very, very right, AR, and thanks for bringing it all back to my favorite topic. We are human and we do things for very human reasons. Once we understand that, we have a shot at understanding what's going on around us. |
2008-09-25T17:29:39+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/22/real-growth-real-debt/#comment-117 |
| Ha! Well, I remain a hopeful romantic. I doubt that things will ever be perfect, but right now it doesn't look all that good. As my carpenter Dave said, "People believe in solutions, but it's pretty rare that there even are solutions - just work-arounds". I'm good with that. | 2008-09-24T02:58:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/24/spaces-inbetween/#comment-111 |
| The size of this is simply tremendous. Our total debt is a 1 with 13 zeros after it - one for every stripe on the flag. That's about $100,000 per household. This bailout, when applied back over the last 7 years when the bad debt was created, shows that economic growth has been essentially zero once you take out government spending, mania, and inflation. If anyone asks what we do in this nation, those three are it. Hopefully people understand what I've been saying now. |
2008-09-23T14:21:48+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/22/real-growth-real-debt/#comment-107 |
| I almost posted a different entry, one with a longer view. We aren't a Capitalist nation, we are a Marketist nation. We value free access to the market over capital, and this belief system was at the core of our policy through the 20th Century - and most of what we've done since Andrew Jackson. That means that the Federal Government is invariably going to be the insurer of last resort. Along with that insurance policy to insure a liquid and functioning market at all times, we have to expect certain Terms and Conditions that we have to sign off on - every insurance policy has a big pile of 'em. These are the regulations we need on derivatives and on the institutions themselves. Allowing institutions to become "too big to fail" is a market flaw both in terms of barriers to entry and eventual bailout costs. Since Glass-Steagel was repealed, there's no firewall between banks and traders, thus making the inurance of last resort far more expensive. We have to look at this. In short, we have to be honest about what we value, who we are, and how we let a bunch of ego-driven idiots fuck things up this bad. And we have to understand that the role of the government isn't something that can be shouted out in pithy lines on a mindless talk show. It's gonna hurt, I admit. And it'll take time, if we can do it at all. But if we can't learn from this mess, we are doomed. |
2008-09-19T00:40:55+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/19/recovery/#comment-95 |
| I skipped Wall Street because I want to take the long view, as is my wont. I don't want to tell people how to interpret the news, I want to show them. It's the novelist in me. :-) This is a thesis-length argument, and I'll come back to it. I couldn't separate the theory and practice because this is a practice - so here's the summary. I'll provide more details and case studies later. Thanks! |
2008-09-17T01:46:01+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/17/liber-lectoris/#comment-87 |
| Look, if your team is down by 4 with 42 seconds to go and they throw a "Hail Mary" on first down, you know they'll do the same thing on second, third, and fourth. You don't need to be John Madden to figure that out, and unlike Madden I'm not paid to keep talking about it while they do it. That's all that's going on here - they are desperate. Frankly, I'm desperate when I use complex football analogies in a year when the Dolphins look lousy, but there you go. The point is that this is going just like anyone should expect so far. Why don't Rock Stars smile? Because they are serious artists. It's just like the reason why Supermodels don't smile - they are above you. You follow them because they have a wisdom/insight that you don't. That archetype was set down 200 years ago. Yes, I was writing background for some later political analysis, because I fear Obama is getting to be too much of a Rock Star and not enough of a politician. There is a big, important difference. I'm watching. But you know I love writing about van Beethoven no matter what, yes? ;-) |
2008-09-12T14:33:46+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/12/rockstar/#comment-69 |
| Maris: Thanks, I just enjoy arts of all kinds. Cooking is just the yummiest of them. Stay at it! Keep the goals in mind! Janine: I'm sure I'll confuse some people. But I can't imagine having nothing more to say about your life than politics. That must be terribly dull. I refuse to be dull, even at the risk of being misunderstood horribly. |
2008-09-10T18:29:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/10/cooking/#comment-65 |
| You know, the funny thing is that it was either this topic or mythology. I have a lot of books on mythology and a partner that wrote her thesis on mythological frames in politics. The only reason I didn't write on that topic is that I'm sick of politics (see last week as to why). So I'm good with the minotaur. |
2008-09-08T02:19:03+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/08/bookshelves/#comment-61 |
| Thanks, everyone. I'm pretty tired of all this, too, but it's an important event in our culture. We get a snapshot as to how everyone really feels about significant cultural issues once every 4 years, and it's worth taking note of. You can't just go with the standard reasons people do things that you hear on the nooze, however, so it's tricky. But I make a point of enjoying it. That is, I did enjoy it. I'm rather sick of it now. |
2008-09-08T00:24:51+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/05/rnc-ends-not-a-moment-too-soon/#comment-58 |
| Thanks! I'm walking around today with a 3x5 card around my neck that says "RESIDENT - ST PAUL" on the assumption it will get me access to anywhere. If only the election were over soon, too. Ah, well. |
2008-09-05T13:32:19+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/05/rnc-ends-not-a-moment-too-soon/#comment-54 |
| "The Children's Crusade" is the subtitle of "Slaughterhouse 5". I had to use it. The problem always comes when everyone gets tired and the cops start to over-react. It always happens. Meanwhile, the causers of trouble have a lot of fresh news to get otherwise sane people riled up. And so it goes. Meanwhile, I'm suffering from Hyperbole Induced Sleepiness Syndrome (HISSy). I need to take more than a strong half-step back. |
2008-09-03T19:19:08+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/03/the-childrens-crusade/#comment-50 |
| Thanks, Janine. Yes, the ugliness is the real issue. I'd like to hope the regulars "get it" by now, but perhaps I should keep harping on it just in case. I don't understand why people don't want to work for beauty more than toyz and all the other crap our culture has. It is, at the least, a question that needs to be asked. |
2008-09-03T04:22:43+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/02/concrete-and-life/#comment-46 |
| That wall runs down the middle of Chestnut Street, one block off of my house on Walnut. To put such ugliness so close to me has made me very sad. I spent my day as a Legal Observer at three arrests, taking pics of the proceedings. One of them involved about 100 people and was very near my house. The site of 200 police in full riot gear and the Coast Guard out on the Mississippi with AR-15s is not one I will soon forget. They have taken my city from me. The loss is very painful. |
2008-09-02T04:54:25+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/09/01/the-rnc-wall/#comment-41 |
| I think that she, as a person, may be allright. Give that she lives as far away as Wasilla, Alaska, it doesn't matter much to me whether she is or not. But Veep? Granted, it's not "Worth more than a bucket of warm spit," in the words of John Nance Gardner, but still ... |
2008-08-30T15:55:59+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/29/convention-tidbits/#comment-36 |
| Yes, that's a lot of what's going on. Susan Collins and Elizabeth Dole are in tough races, but why not Olympia Snowe or Kay Hutchinson? I can see they wanted a young woman, sure, but it's a risky pick. Translating from my Minnesota understatement, "a tad desperate"means "embarrassingly desperate". :-) I agree that the problem lately has been the democrats screwing up. We have to keep our eyes on the prize, we have to be the ones who re-invent this nation. The other guys won't. |
2008-08-29T19:34:09+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/29/convention-tidbits/#comment-33 |
| Thanks, everyone. The goal is to get some discussion going about difficult topics so that we have the appropriate pressure on the party machinations. I hope that's possible. As FDR used to tell people who came into his office, "You've convinced me, now go out and put pressure on me." I also want to say that I'm not against having a strong military, but I am against having one that is so strong it becomes too easy for the pols to send them off to do missions they can't do well. As in the Tao Te Ching, "The strongest general keeps his sword sheathed". Getting past the Five Crises is all about brave leadership, and I think we might just have it on the way. But it is needed, and badly so. |
2008-08-29T14:55:22+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/29/five-crises/#comment-29 |
| Love is an imperfect word, but I happen to think it's close. It's some kind of affair of the heart. What prompted me to post this was how terribly the CNN heads were talking strategies to heal the party, followed by a cut to floor interviews full of passion and hurt. The disconnect was amazing to me. Take this post as something like what I'd say if I was on CNN. You can see how I don't fit their mold on both length and content! :-) |
2008-08-28T14:51:07+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/27/hillary/#comment-23 |
| Janine, our leaders have to deal with it. I'm doing my best to be sure it's done in an upfront manner by talking about it. Please, spread the word. This is one of the biggest issues of our day and we all have to deal with it at some point. You won't read about it in the mainstream press until it bubbles up to the surface, and that's what I hope to do by publishing it here. | 2008-08-27T20:31:50+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/27/dead-men-walking/#comment-20 |
| Thanks! Yes, it used to be much harder to craft the printed word. That's the real "problem" we have right now. It's not a problem if people read more, and I'm making a point of doing that. We need to communicate more if we're going to be a coherent society, that I'm sure of. Perhaps all the chatter will lead to that once we figger out what we're doing. There's always hope. | 2008-08-27T20:29:23+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/07/28/writing-bubble/#comment-19 |
| Thanks, everyone, I do appreciate it. We're going to go through an exciting time, a phrase I never thought I'd apply to anything involving Joe Biden. But that's just part of the excitement, eh? | 2008-08-25T02:31:30+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/25/let-the-real-games-begin/#comment-11 |
| My life isn't easy - why should I make yours easy? :-) | 2008-08-24T23:37:16+00:00 | wabbitoid | http://erikhare.com/2008/08/22/soul-mate/#comment-6 |
MintPress News / mintpressnews.com
Independent, non-partisan journalism
| Comment | Date | Name | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
White people in the US decrying imperialism in some distant nation while at the same time showing a complete lack of any understanding or empathy for the people in that nation. The irony is really thick. |
2016-04-19 20:22:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/brics-attack-empire-strikes-back-brazil/214943/#comment-197191 |
This is only good for everyone. The main reason the US is losing the currency war is because we have the world’s top reserve currency, used in 85% of all commodity transactions. Reducing demand for the USD will lower its value and make it possible for us to price our exports more competitively. |
2016-02-09 17:49:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/213505-2/213505/#comment-185492 |
This is a very serious allegation. I want to see these cables. |
2015-10-12 19:12:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/wikileaks-us-government-plotted-to-kill-bolivian-president-evo-morales/210255/#comment-123773 |
Interesting how the original headline was “Turkey sends in jets as Syria’s agony spills over every border” http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/26/isis-syria-turkey-us Do you have permission to take stories from the Guardian, BTW? It doesn’t seem like them to give away their copy rights so easily. |
2015-07-31 21:10:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/new-evidence-reveals-turkish-government-is-directly-funding-isis/208171/#comment-86590 |
Never. Why do you assume that a recommendation is somehow tied to employment? |
2015-07-17 13:14:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/saudi-arabia-borrows-4b-as-oil-price-reality-hits-home/207641/#comment-83049 |
This article is actually from the Financial Times. I strongly recommend FT because it’s not at all what you might think. There are plenty of stories in it opposing Greek austerity, for example, and pieces like this. It’s full of news you don’t find in the US legacy media generally, and I would trust that everyone here can make up their own minds about their biases. |
2015-07-16 23:16:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/saudi-arabia-borrows-4b-as-oil-price-reality-hits-home/207641/#comment-82830 |
The US Dollar is “overvalued” in part because our economy is the strongest in the developed world but primarily because it is the global reserve currency. 85% of world trade is priced in US Dollars regardless of who is trading, which creates a lot of extra demand for the US Dollar. Our current Federal deficit and trade deficit are not pumping dollars out into the world as fast as trade is growing, meaning that there is actually a net shortage of the Dollar around the world. http://erikhare.com/2014/04/16/the-amazing-dollar/ |
2015-07-06 21:03:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/after-more-than-a-decade-ron-pauls-2002-economic-predictions-more-on-target-than-ever/207157/#comment-76576 |
Your article stands in contrast to these comments, which only demonstrate how difficult the noble calling you issued is. The world has come together like never before and we find ourselves close to people and ideas that seem utterly incomprehensible. The most natural reaction is fear when confronted by so much change and so much that is clearly outside of our tribe. Indeed, the comforting things we learned as children in a world long passed into history often seem irrelevant. Fear is definitely going to dominate such a world. |
2015-05-08 17:01:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/mnar-muhawesh-ancient-rome-france-today-cartoons-turn-tides-history/202286/#comment-59509 |
It took me a while to respond because I had to stop applauding and sit down. This article is fabulous not just for its content, which is enlightening and never said often enough. What is great here is that a truly practical, even pragmatic analysis of our foreign policy shows how terribly bankrupt it is. The American Left needs to embrace people in the military and related who have been forced to operate with our genuinely sick lack of priorities and tendency to do tremendous harm. They know how screwed up it all is, and they are our best allies! |
2015-03-16 15:35:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/were-screwed-colin-powells-chief-of-staff-on-the-failings-of-us-foreign-policy/203366/#comment-47857 |
This is indeed a standard Fox Nooze talking point, Cainer. The best measure of unemployment is called “U6”, and it is 11%. |
2015-03-12 17:44:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/the-5-5-unemployment-number-is-a-total-lie/203245/#comment-47602 |
You cannot look at the inverse of the Worforce Participation number and call it the Unemployment figure! People are not in the workforce for many reasons – they live off of investment income, they have kids to raise, they are going to school full time, etc. If you go by this, you would say that the unemployment rate from 1947 to 1968 never fell below 42%, which is obviously nonsense. U3 unemployment, the headline figure, is obviously flawed. If you want a reliable figure use U6, which is currently 11.0%. Yes, 1 person in 9 is underemployed. |
2015-03-12 17:43:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/the-5-5-unemployment-number-is-a-total-lie/203245/#comment-47600 |
A very good interview, very much worth watching in its entirety. The assessment that the Saudis would fund an extremist Sunni group to keep their influence proved to be very true. The way that the US gets in far over its head is also explained in very human yet direct terms. |
2014-09-25 15:31:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/video-gen-wesley-clark-2007-goal-take-7-countries-5-years/196957/#comment-24571 |
I think Cavanaugh’s point is that the Jewish Lobby as a subset of the Israel lobby is rather small and could be completely avoided by the right-wing if it weren’t for the Christian Zealot / Pentacostal portion of that group. I believe that this is at least reasonable, and probably quite correct as it stands. We can’t tease them out, of course, and find out for sure. But at the very least the Christian Zealots’ role is terribly under-reported and a piece like this is a valuable contribution to reporting on the topic. |
2014-04-29 16:41:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.mintpressnews.com/onward-christian-zionists/189659/#comment-15641 |
ElephantTail / elephanttail.wordpress.com
The Musings of Mike Spindell
| Comment | Date | Name | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| I'm a bit in the middle on all this. You don't have to have a grand plan to have a conspiracy, and you don't have to be evil to be selfish. I think that families like the Bushes look out for each other and make things happen, even if there isn't some big plan. I would guess that institutions like the CIA are just a tool for them to advance their own goals. | 2015-08-28T14:09:11+00:00 | Erik Hare | https://elephanttail.wordpress.com/2015/08/26/a-real-history-of-the-last-65-years/#comment-34 |
activistpost / activistpost.com
Latest alternative news from independent journalists around the world. We cover topics surrounding liberty, activism, war, economy, environment, health and more.
| Comment | Date | Name | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
I feel the author has a point to make, but it is buried in the language of propaganda repeated over and over. If you have a point to make, please show some respect for your readers and allow them to evaluate the evidence without this sort of language. That would also make for a much shorter and readable article which is much more likely to be widely circulated. |
2014-08-08 22:10:00 | Erik Hare | https://www.activistpost.com/2014/08/why-arent-isis-and-al-qaeda-attacking.html#comment-286 |
The National Memo / nationalmemo.com
Smart. Sharp. Funny. Fearless.
| Comment | Date | Name | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
Actually, the Part-Time Work Myth was debunked pretty thoroughly last August by the SF Federal Reserve. The mainstream media doesn’t read the reports that come out of the Fed Banks, but they should – interesting stuff. You can find them on Facebook if you want to get updates and be ahead of the press by a few months. http://erikhare.wordpress.com/2013/08/30/part-time-work/ |
2013-10-23 23:23:00 | Erik Hare | http://www.nationalmemo.com/another-anti-affordable-care-act-talking-point-destroyed-by-facts/#comment-239907 |
Copyblogger / copyblogger.com
| Comment | Date | Name | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
I have seen my google traffic go up about 25% lately. This is hardly surprising, since my SEO strategies have been concentrating on social media work and careful use of keywords without over-use. As I tell everyone, “Write for humans, optimize for SEO”. Google is making great strides toward identifying genuinely good, useful content – and those of us who have concentrated on that are seeing the benefit. |
2012-05-23 22:29:46 | Erik Hare | https://www.copyblogger.com/seo-penguin-update/#comment-240895 |